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Автор: Grafiati

Опубліковано: 26 липня 2024

Оновлено: 27 липня 2024

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Статті в журналах з теми "Social change – Forecasting"

Smith, Herbert L. "The social forecasting industry." Climatic Change 11, no. 1-2 (1987): 35–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf00138794.

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Clive Simmonds, W. H. "Forecasting, social change, and futures in Canada." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 33, no. 4 (July 1988): 297–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0040-1625(88)90026-1.

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Berk, Richard A., and Thomas F. Cooley. "Errors in forecasting social phenomena." Climatic Change 11, no. 1-2 (1987): 247–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf00138803.

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Graham, Gary, Anita Greenhill, and Vic Callaghan. "Technological Forecasting and Social Change Special Section: Creative prototyping." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 84 (May 2014): 1–4. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.11.007.

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Ashraf, Rohail, Muhammad Asif Khan, Rafique Ahmed Khuhro, and Zeeshan Ahmed Bhatti. "Knowledge creation dynamics of technological forecasting and social change special issues." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 180 (July 2022): 121663. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121663.

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Phillips, Fred. "How to publish your research in Technological Forecasting & Social Change." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 146 (September 2019): 488–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.05.022.

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Savin, Ivan. "Evolution and recombination of topics in Technological Forecasting and Social Change." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 194 (September 2023): 122723. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122723.

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Bowonder, B., B. Muralidharan, and T. Miyake. "Forecasting technological change: insights from theories of evolution." Interdisciplinary Science Reviews 24, no. 4 (April 1999): 275–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1179/030801899678948.

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Solodov, S. V., I. B. Mamai, and S. V. Pronichkin. "Framing regional innovation and technology policies for transformative change." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 981, no. 2 (February 1, 2022): 022007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/981/2/022007.

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Abstract The current state of social and economic development of regions requires new approaches to increasing the efficiency of their activities, and above all scientific approaches to forecasting, as one of the main components of the strategy of transformative changes. It is proposed to use an architecture based on neuro-fuzzy networks for forecasting regional development, which is characterized by a high learning rate due to the linear dependence of outputs on adjustable weights. Scientific and methodological approaches are developed to determine the global minimum of the learning criterion, taking into account the decision rules “if-then”.

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Salomon, Ilan. "Technological change and social forecasting: the case of telecommuting as a travel substitute." Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies 6, no. 1-2 (February 1998): 17–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0968-090x(98)00006-0.

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Дисертації з теми "Social change – Forecasting"

Mosime, Bonolo. "The use of traditional weather forecasting by agro-pastoralists of different social groups in Bobirwa sub-district, Botswana." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/29536.

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Agro-pastoralists of Bobirwa sub-district depend mainly on rain-fed agriculture as a source of their livelihood. However, this agro-pastoralism is affected by climatic variability. Advanced warning of upcoming weather information is, therefore, important in informing farming decisions. Traditional weather forecasting is often a major planning tool used to inform agro-pastoralists’ decision making and has been handed from one generation to another. For instance, local knowledge indicators are used to determine onset of rainfall and quality of the rainfall expected. However, there are numerous factors that may have affected the effective use of and dependence on traditional weather forecasting over the years. For this reason, it is critical to examine the current state and use of traditional weather forecasting among the agro-pastoralists. This thesis describes the traditional weather forecasting that agro-pastoralists in Bobirwa sub-district Botswana hold and use in planning for agricultural activities to cope with climate variability. It also examines changes that have been observed in the use of traditional weather forecasting over time. By exploring the knowledge used to generate early warning systems and coping strategies to climate variability of agro-pastoralists, we examine underlying vulnerabilities and resilience possibilities. Data was collected through purposively selecting a total of 101 agro-pastoralists who were further stratified by age and gender. The following qualitative techniques were used in data collection: semi-structured interviews (54 interviewees constituting 37 forecasters and 17 non-forecasters), focus group discussions (47 participants consisting of between 4 and 12 participants), and key informant interviews (11 forecasters who use multiple indicators). The snowballing technique was the main sampling strategy. Knowledgeable traditional forecasters in FGD’s were used to identify key informants with whom semi-structured interviews were conducted. All data was analysed using the thematic analysis method. Data was constructed using a cyclical process to generate themes which consisted of the initialisation (capturing participants’ accounts), construction of themes, relating the themes and developing results. From the study, it was found that male and female elderly agro-pastoralists in Bobirwa are more knowledgeable about traditional weather forecasting and use the traditional weather forecasting techniques to inform their decisions, while the less-knowledgeable adults and youth expressed having limited use of traditional weather forecasting in decision making. There were also differences in the use of specific traditional indicators based on the positionality of an individual in the society as well as age and gender. While the participants indicated that traditional weather forecasting is a reliable technique, climate change is believed to have resulted in unpredictable trends in recent years. For example, excessive floods, patchy and reduced rainfall, extensive heat spells with no specific patterns, changes in biological indicators, and thus, present a challenge to these agro-pastoralists. In all, traditional weather forecasting remains a cultural artefact in the community and will always be practised by the agro-pastoralists. However, many elements threaten the existence of the traditional weather forecasting such as the death of custodians of knowledge, the disruptive nature of climate change, youth migration to cities and the ubiquity of modern practices. Further to this, the prevalence of modern practices, for example Christianity, is transforming the use and beliefs of individuals in traditional weather forecasting leading to reduced intergenerational transfers of the traditional weather forecasting. It is prudent to expect that as cultural practices change within societies, cognisant of the fact that culture is dynamic, it is also expected that the use of traditional weather forecasting will change. It should, however, not be construed that the changes in the use of traditional weather and seasonal forecasting are an indication of the unreliability of traditional indicators, but inability of individuals to forecast. In turn, the study recommends the conservation of the traditional weather forecasting and traditionally important biological indicators. This can be promoted through documentation and teaching of traditional weather and seasonal forecasting techniques in conventional educational programmes. Alongside this, integration of traditional and scientific weather forecasting could be used to develop national policies to facilitate effective drought and flood coping strategies that are inclusive and aimed at limiting the traditional weather forecasting knowledge gap among agro-pastoralists of different age and gender groups. Interventions by the government can be redirected to traditional leaders or elders who bear extensive knowledge on traditional weather indicators to create awareness and facilitate knowledge exchange especially in aiding agro-pastoralists to cope with climate variability. Also, for those who are sceptical of traditional weather forecasting, the use of religious gatherings of different denominations can be an option to facilitate awareness raising of coping strategies that can be explored to reduce vulnerability amongst this group of agro-pastoralists by teaching them to adapt to the changing weather using local knowledge.

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Maréchal, Kevin. "The economics of climate change and the change of climate in economics: the implications for climate policy of adopting an evolutionary perspective." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/210278.

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Анотація:

1. Contextual outline of the PhD Research

Climate change is today often seen as one of the most challenging issue that our civilisation will have to face during the 21st century. This is especially so now that the most recent scientific data have led to the conclusion that the globally averaged net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming (IPCC 2007, p. 5) and that continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming (IPCC, 2007 p. 13). This unequivocal link between climate change and anthropogenic activities requires an urgent, world-wide shift towards a low carbon economy (STERN 2006 p. iv) and coordinated policies and measures to manage this transition.

The climate issue is undoubtedly a typical policy question and as such, is considered amenable to economic scrutiny. Indeed, in today’s world economics is inevitable when it comes to arbitrages in the field of policy making. From the very beginning of international talks on climate change, up until the most recent discussions on a post-Kyoto international framework, economic arguments have turned out to be crucial elements of the analysis that shapes policy responses to the climate threat. This can be illustrated by the prominent role that economics has played in the different analyses produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to assess the impact of climate change on society.

The starting point and the core idea of this PhD research is the long-held observation that the threat of climate change calls for a change of climate in economics. Borrowing from the jargon used in climate policy, adaptation measures could also usefully target the academic discipline of economics. Given that inherent characteristics of the climate problem (e.g. complexity, irreversibility, deep uncertainty, etc.) challenge core economic assumptions, mainstream economic theory does not appear as appropriately equipped to deal with this crucial issue. This makes that new assumptions and analyses are needed in economics in order to comprehend and respond to the problem of climate change.

In parallel (and without environmental considerations being specifically the driving force to it), the mainstream model in economics has also long been (and still is) strongly criticised and disputed by numerous scholars - both from within and outside the field of economics. For the sake of functionality, these criticisms - whether they relate to theoretical inconsistencies or are empirically-based - can be subsumed as all challenging part of the Cartesian/Newtonian legacy of economics. This legacy can be shown to have led to a model imprinted with what could be called “mechanistic reductionism”. The mechanistic side refers to the Homo oeconomicus construct while reductionism refers to the quest for micro-foundations materialised with the representative agent hypothesis. These two hypotheses constitute, together with the conjecture of perfect markets, the building blocks of the framework of general equilibrium economics.

Even though it is functional for the purpose of this work to present them separately, the flaws of economics in dealing with the specificities of the climate issue are not considered independent from the fundamental objections made to the theoretical framework of mainstream economics. The former only make the latter seem more pregnant while the current failure of traditional climate policies informed by mainstream economics render the need for complementary approaches more urgent.

2. Overview of the approach and its main insights for climate policy

Starting from this observation, the main objective of this PhD is thus to assess the implications for climate policy that arise from adopting an alternative analytical economic framework. The stance is that the coupling of insights from the framework of evolutionary economics with the perspective of ecological economics provides a promising way forward both theoretically as well as on a more applied basis with respect to a better comprehension of the socioeconomic aspects related to the climate problem. As claimed in van den Bergh (2007, p. 521), ecological economics and evolutionary economics “share many characteristics and can be combined in a fruitful way" - which renders the coupling approach both legitimate and promising.

The choice of an evolutionary line of thought initially stems from its core characteristic: given its focus on innovation and system change it provides a useful approach to start with for assessing and managing the needed transition towards a low carbon economy. Besides, its shift of focus towards a better understanding of economic dynamics together with its departure from the perfect rationality hypothesis renders evolutionary economics a suitable theoretical complement for designing environmental policies.

The notions of path-dependence and lock-in can be seen as the core elements from this PhD research. They arise from adopting a framework which is founded on a different view of individual rationality and that allows for richer and more complex causalities to be accounted for. In a quest for surmounting the above-mentioned problem of reductionism, our framework builds on the idea of ‘multi-level selection’. This means that our analytical framework should be able to accommodate not only for upward but also for downward causation, without giving analytical priority to any level over the other. One crucial implication of such a framework is that the notion of circularity becomes the core dynamic, highlighting the importance of historicity, feedbacks and emergent properties.

More precisely, the added value of the perspective adopted in this PhD research is that it highlights the role played by inertia and path-dependence. Obviously, it is essential to have a good understanding of the underlying causes of that inertia prior to devising on how to enforce a change. Providing a clear picture of the socio-economic processes at play in shaping socio-technical systems is thus a necessary first step in order to usefully complement policy-making in the field of energy and climate change. In providing an analytical basis for this important diagnosis to be performed, the use of the evolutionary framework sheds a new light on the transition towards low-carbon socio-technical systems. The objective is to suggest strategies that could prove efficient in triggering the needed transition such as it has been the case in past “lock-in” stories.

Most notably, the evolutionary framework allows us to depict the presence of two sources of inertia (i.e at the levels of individuals through “habits” and at the level of socio-technical systems) that mutually reinforce each other in a path-dependent manner. Within the broad perspective on path dependence and lock-in, this PhD research has first sketched the implications for climate policy of applying the concept of ‘technological lock-in’ in a systemic perspective. We then investigated in more details the notion of habits. This is important as the ‘behavioural’ part of the lock-in process, although explicitly acknowledged in the pioneer work of Paul David (David, 1985, p. 336), has been neglected in most of subsequent analyses. Throughout this study, the notion of habits has been studied at both the theoretical and applied level of analysis as well as from an empirical perspective.

As shown in the first chapters of the PhD, the advantage of our approach is that it can incorporate theories that so far have been presented opposite, partial and incomplete perspectives. For instance, it is shown that our evolutionary approach not only is able to provide explanation to some of the puzzling questions in economics (e.g. the problem of strong reciprocity displayed by individual in anonymous one-shot situations) but also is very helpful in bringing a complementary explanation with respect to the famous debate on the ‘no-regret’ emission reduction potential which agitates the experts of climate policy.

An emission reduction potential is said to be "no regret" when the costs of implementing a measure are more than offset by the benefits it generates such as, for instance, reduced energy bills. In explaining why individuals do not spontaneously implement those highly profitable energy-efficient investments ,it appears that most prior analyses have neglected the importance of non-economic obstacle. They are often referred to as “barriers” and partly relate to the ‘bounded rationality’ of economic agent. As developed in the different chapters of this PhD research, the framework of evolutionary economics is very useful in that it is able to provide a two-fold account (i.e. relying on both individual and socio-technical sources of inertia) of this limited rationality that prevent individuals to act as purely optimising agents.

Bearing this context in mind, the concept of habits, as defined and developed in this study, is essential in analysing the determinants of energy consumption. Indeed, this concept sheds an insightful light on the puzzling question of why energy consumption keeps rising even though there is an evident increase of awareness and concern about energy-related environmental issues such as climate change. Indeed, if we subscribe to the idea that energy-consuming behaviours are often guided by habits and that deeply ingrained habits can become “counter-intentional”, it then follows that people may often display “locked-in” practices in their daily energy consumption behaviour. This hypothesis has been assessed in our empirical analysis whose results show how the presence of strong energy-consuming habitual practices can reduce the effectiveness of economic incentives such as energy subsidies. One additional delicate factor that appears crucial for our purpose is that habits are not fully conscious forms of behaviours. This makes that individuals do not really see habits as a problem given that it is viewed as easily changed.

In sum, based on our evolutionary account of the situation, it follows that, to be more efficient, climate policies would have to both shift the incumbent carbon-based socio-technical systems (for it to shape decisions towards a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions) and also deconstruct habits that this same socio-technical has forged with time (as increased environmental awareness and intentions formulated accordingly are not sufficient in the presence of strong habits).

Accordingly, decision-makers should design measures (e.g. commitment strategies, niche management, etc.) that, as explained in this research, specifically target those change-resisting factors and their key features. This is essential as these factors tend to reduce the efficiency of traditional instruments. Micro-level interventions are thus needed as much as macro-level ones. For instance, it is often the case that external improvements of energy efficiency do not lead to lower energy consumption due to the rebound effect arising from unchanged energy-consuming habits. Bearing this in mind and building on the insights from the evolutionary approach, policy-makers should go beyond the mere subsidisation of technologies. They should instead create conditions enabling the use of the multi-layered, cumulative and self-reinforcing character of economic change highlighted by evolutionary analyses. This means supporting both social and physical technologies with the aim of influencing the selection environment so that only the low-carbon technologies and practices will survive.

Mentioned references:

David, P. A. (1985), Clio and the economics of QWERTY, American Economic Review 75/2: 332–337.

IPCC, 2007, ‘Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis’, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S. D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

Stern, N. 2006, ‘Stern Review: The economics of Climate Change’, Report to the UK Prime Minister and Chancellor, London, 575 p. (www.sternreview.org.uk)

van den Bergh, J.C.J.M. 2007, ‘Evolutionary thinking in environmental economics’, Journal of Evolutionary Economics 17(5): 521-549.

Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

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Niang, Abdou-Aziz. "Croissance et convergence des pays de la zone CFA : une étude par les données de panel non stationnaires." Phd thesis, Université de Bourgogne, 2011. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00834421.

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Les pays africains de la zone CFA ont connu ces dernières années de multiples transformations économiques d'une part à travers les mesures initiées par les bailleurs de fonds bilatéraux et multilatéraux et d'autre part à travers les politiques d'intégration économique et monétaire. Ainsi, en partant de l'hypothèse selon laquelle du fait de ces nombreuses interventions, ces systèmes économiques incorporent divers phénomènes tels que les changements structurels et les dépendances inter-économies, nous avons étudié leurs principales implications sur la croissance, la convergence et la prévisibilité du taux de croissance. L'accent est d'abord mis sur les traits majeurs des politiques d'intégration dans le cadre d'une union monétaire tout en soulignant les éventuelles incidences de telles politiques sur la dynamique économique des pays membres principalement en termes de modélisation économétrique de la croissance et de la convergence. Les différentes études réalisées sur la base d'outils économétriques adaptés ont permis d'aboutir à des résultats nouveaux relatifs au processus de croissance et de convergence de ces économies comparativement à ceux basés sur les outils classiques de modélisation économétrique. Il ressort également de cette étude que la présence de facteurs communs et de ruptures structurelles est fortement liée aux politiques d'intégration mises en oeuvre au sein de la zone CFA. Ces résultats révèlent aussi que les chocs produisent des effets hétérogènes et ont généralement des dates d'occurrence différentes selon les pays et qu'il est nécessaire de faire varier les réponses de politique économique d'un pays à l'autre pour une croissance durable et mieux partagée.

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Arbiol, Roca Laia. "Mètodes de càlcul de l’índex de l’Oscil·lació de la Mediterrània Occidental (WeMOi) i estudi del seu potencial predictiu en la precipitació diària." Doctoral thesis, Universitat de Barcelona, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/672952.

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Les oscil·lacions atmosfèriques, que s'associen majoritàriament a patrons climàtics, influeixen molt en les variables climàtiques globals i solen conduir a condicions i esdeveniments climàtics extrems, els quals causen molts impactes adversos sobre el nostre estatus ambiental i socioeconòmic. L'objectiu d'aquesta tesi és identificar els principals esdeveniments de pluges torrencials a la façana oriental del litoral peninsular ibèric a partir de dades instrumentals, dades de reanàlisi i dades predictives mitjançant el càlcul del valor de l'índex de l'Oscil·lació de la Mediterrània Occidental (WeMOi). Els signes i la magnitud del valor de l'índex reflecteixen les relacions de l'esmentat patró de variabilitat amb les precipitacions i la seva quantia a la conca de la Mediterrània, i s'usen com a eina de suport per a la predicció de pluges torrencials en aquesta àrea. Part dels resultats de l'anàlisi de components principals coincideix bé amb la comprensió general sobre l'impacte d'aquest patró amb les pluges torrencials. A més, les relacions entre la precipitació i el WeMOi s'estudien, a escala diària, a partir de dades meteorològiques instrumentals, de models atmosfèrics de reanàlisi i prediccions, tant del clima passat com del present. Els mètodes estadístics utilitzats reforcen el pes d'aquest patró de teleconnexió atmosfèrica en diverses finestres d'estudi i, per tant, la persistència d'aquesta configuració atmosfèrica. Això suggereix que el mètode predictiu que es proposa és capaç de representar la relació entre el patró climàtic i la intensitat de la precipitació i és, doncs, una eina de planificació clau atenent la localització, la força i la persistència d'episodis torrencials a l'est peninsular. Es tracta d'àrees densament poblades on factors geogràfics com la proximitat al mar i l'orografia tenen un paper important i on els efectes del canvi climàtic es manifestaran i es veuran reforçats negativament.
Atmospheric oscillations, which are mostly associate with climate patterns, have great influences on global climate variables and often lead to extreme weather conditions and events, which cause lots of adverse impacts on our environmental and socioeconomic status. The aim of this thesis is to identify the main events of torrential rain on the eastern façade of the Iberian Peninsula coast based on instrumental data, reanalysis data and predictive data by calculating the value of the Western Mediterranen Oscillation and its index (WeMOi). The signs and magnitude of the value of the index reflect the relationships of climate patterns with rainfall and their strength on the western façade of the Mediterranean basin and are used as a support tool for predicting torrential rains in this area. Part of the results of the main component analysis agrees well with the general understanding of the impact of this pattern with torrential rains. In addition, the relationships between precipitation and the WeMO index are studied on a daily basis based on instrumental meteorological data, atmospheric models of reanalysis and predictions, both past and present climate. The statistical methods used reinforce the weight of this atmospheric teleconnection pattern in several study windows and, therefore, the persistence of this atmospheric configuration. This suggests that the proposed predictive method is able to represent the teleconnection between the climate pattern and precipitation intensity being a key planning tool considering the location, strength and persistence of torrential episodes in the eastern peninsula. Highly dense areas where geographical features such as proximity to the sea and topography play an important role and where the effects of climate change will be reflected and severely damaged.

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Semmens, Angela. "Envisioning futures : a critique of `super' male futurology : from the optical to the activisionary." Thesis, 1993. https://eprints.utas.edu.au/21535/7/whole_SemmensAngela1994_thesis.pdf.

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This thesis is an exploratory inquiry into 'visions of a future' and provides a critical assessment of the subtextual thematic constellations of 'visions' which prevail in modern western societies. It is contended that, given our contemporary socioecological crisis, predominant western visions in their present supermale-progress form, irrespective of their 'post'-industrial or 'new' designations, are no longer adequate to guarantee positive social transformations. In contradistinction to predominant visions, life affirming visions such as 'activisionary-ecosophic' visions promise novel ways of living and being with all life, and provide the hallmark of hope and 'breakthrough' for our contemporary age. Only these visions are inherently socio-transfromative, since their political ecology is a life affirming one.

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Ogden, Michael R. "Islands on the net technology and development futures in Pacific Island microstates /." 1993. http://catalog.hathitrust.org/api/volumes/oclc/33072181.html.

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Walter, Sarah Marie. "The emergence of product certification systems as trade barriers: forecasting changes in the automotive sector based on an analysis of key drivers." Master's thesis, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/17400.

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This paper addresses the growing difficulties automobile manufacturers face within their after sales business: an increasing number of trade obstacles set up by import countries discriminates against the foreign suppliers and impedes the international sales of genuine parts. The purpose of the study is to explore the emergence of trade restrictive product certification systems, which affect spare parts exports of automobile manufacturers. The methodology used includes review of the literature and an empirical study based on qualitative interviews with representatives of major stakeholders of the automotive after sales business. Relevant key drivers, which initiate the introduction of technical regulations in importing countries, are identified and analysed to evaluate their effect on the emerging trade policy. The analysis of the key drivers outlines that several interacting components, such as the global competitiveness of the country, macroeconomic and microeconomic factors, and certain country-specific variables induce trade restrictive product certification systems. The findings allow for an early detection of the emergence of product certification systems and provide a means to early recognise the risks and opportunities for the sales of automotive spare parts in the automakers’ target markets. This allows the manufacturers to react immediately and adapt in time to the upcoming changes.

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Книги з теми "Social change – Forecasting"

Weert, Canzler, Sekretariat für Zukunftsforschung, Institut für Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung., and Internationale Bibliothek für Zukunftsfragen, eds. Die Triebkraft Hoffnung: Robert Jungk zu Ehren : Mit einer ausführlichen Bibliographie seiner Veröffentlichungen. Weinheim, Germany: Beltz, 1993.

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Chūbamrung, ʻAnnop. Khwāmphrō̜m nai kānphachœ̄n lōk yuk pī 2000. Krung Thēp: Bō̜risat Dapbœ̄n Nāi Phrinting, 1999.

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Cooley, Heather. Social vulnerability to climate change in California. [Sacramento, Calif.]: California Energy Commission, 2012.

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H, Glantz Michael, ed. Societal responses to regional climatic change: Forecasting by analogy. Boulder, Colo: Westview Press, 1988.

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John, Sharp, and Texas Comptroller's Office, eds. Forces of change: Shaping the future of Texas. [Austin, Tex.]: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, 1993.

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Angell, Ian O. The new barbarian manifesto: How to survive the Information Age. London: Kogan Page, 2000.

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National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, National Research Council (U.S.). Climate Research Committee, and National Academies Press (U.S.), eds. Describing socioeconomic futures for climate change research and assessment: Report of a workshop. Washington, D.C: National Academies Press, 2010.

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2049 xiang xin Zhongguo. Beijing: Zhongguo dang an chu ban she, 2006.

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Yu, Pyŏng-sŏn. Milleniŏm k'iwŏdŭ.com: Millennium keywords. Sŏul-si: Ungjin Ch'ulp'an, 2000.

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National security and the threat of climate change. Alexandria, VA: CNA Corporation, 2007.

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Частини книг з теми "Social change – Forecasting"

Ahlburg, Dennis. "Forecasting Regional Births: An Economic-Demographic Approach." In Population Change and the Economy: Social Science Theories and Models, 31–51. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-4980-5_2.

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Ledent, Jacques. "Forecasting Interregional Migration: An Economic-Demographic Approach." In Population Change and the Economy: Social Science Theories and Models, 53–77. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-4980-5_3.

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Daim, Tugrul, Kelly Cowan, Wayne Wakeland, Hosein Fallah, and Patricia Holahan. "Forecasting the Adoption of Emerging Energy Technologies: Managing Climate Change, Governance and Evolving Social Values." In Climate Change Management, 119–37. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-29831-8_8.

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Isserman, Andrew. "Forecasting Birth and Migration Rates: The Theoretical Foundation." In Population Change and the Economy: Social Science Theories and Models, 3–30. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-4980-5_1.

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Ulbrich, Hannah, Marco Wedel, and Hans-Liudger Dienel. "Introduction to Internal Crowdsourcing: Theoretical Foundations and Practical Applications." In Contributions to Management Science, 1–14. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-52881-2_1.

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AbstractThe research landscape in the area of forecasting and assessing working conditions has become increasingly difficult to understand. There are plenty of identified reasons, drivers and catchwords to describe a systemic transformation. Individual- and subject-specific approaches to describe and understand the changes to work are being developed in almost every scientific discipline, as well as by (economic) associations and actors in the sociopolitical spheres. Despite all complexity and contradictions, ‘digitalization’ seems to be one focal point when it comes to identifying independent variables to explain the ‘future of work’. The corresponding discussions, analyses, recommendations and scenarios can be found under the well-known headings ‘Work 4.0’, ‘Industry 4.0’, ‘Education 4.0’, ‘Society 4.0’, etc. In addition to systemic descriptions, oftentimes dominated by economics and business management approaches, there are changing individual, subject-inherent perceptual understandings indicating a change in social values with regard to work and its function. Ultimately, for the majority of the population and the (welfare) state, work remains the necessary prerequisite for financially securing their livelihoods.

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Guru Akhil, T., Y. Pranay Krishna, Ch Gangireddy, Anumandla Kiran Kumar, and K. L. Sowjanya. "Cyber-Hacking Breaches for Demonstrating and Forecasting." In Advanced Technologies and Societal Change, 169–75. Singapore: Springer Nature Singapore, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-3045-4_17.

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Manton, Kenneth G. "Forecasting Health Status Changes in an Aging U.S. Population: Assessment of the Current Status and Some Proposals." In Forecasting in the Social and Natural Sciences, 179–210. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1987. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-4011-6_8.

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Nayak, Sarat Chandra, Subhranginee Das, Biswajit Sahoo, and B. Satyanarayana. "AEFA-ANN: Artificial Electric Field Algorithm-Based Artificial Neural Networks for Forecasting Crude Oil Prices." In Advanced Technologies and Societal Change, 87–94. Singapore: Springer Nature Singapore, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-4522-9_9.

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Tsering, Karma, Kiran Shakya, Mir A. Matin, Jim Nelson, and Birendra Bajracharya. "Enhancing Flood Early Warning System in the HKH Region." In Earth Observation Science and Applications for Risk Reduction and Enhanced Resilience in Hindu Kush Himalaya Region, 169–200. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-73569-2_9.

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AbstractFlooding is a chronic natural hazard with disastrous impacts that have magnified over the last decade due to the rising trend in extreme weather events and growing societal vulnerability from global socioeconomic and environmental changes (WMO 2011 in Manual on flood forecasting and warning (WMO-No. 1072)).

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Fedchenko, Anna A., Olga A. Kolesnikova, and Maksim O. Gladkikh. "Opposition to Changes, the Methods of Its Forecasting and Overcoming." In Management of Changes in Socio-Economic Systems, 71–80. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-72613-7_6.

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Тези доповідей конференцій з теми "Social change – Forecasting"

Coelho, Joseph, Dawson D'almeida, Scott Coyne, Nathan Gilkerson, Katelyn Mills, and Praveen Madiraju. "Social Media and Forecasting Stock Price Change." In 2019 IEEE 43rd Annual Computer Software and Applications Conference (COMPSAC). IEEE, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/compsac.2019.10206.

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Cowan, Kelly R., Tugrul Daim, Wayne Wakeland, Hosein Fallah, Gerald Sheble, Loren Lutzenhiser, Aaron Ingle, Robert Hammond, and Matthew Nguyen. "Forecasting the adoption of emerging energy technologies: Managing climate change and evolving social values." In Technology. IEEE, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/picmet.2009.5261751.

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Malkov, Sergey Yurievich. "The modern "era of Change" (about the Russian report to the Club of Rome)." In 6th International Conference “Futurity designing. Digital reality problems”. Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.20948/future-2023-4.

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The article presents the results of research on mathematical modeling and forecasting of world dynamics carried out at Lomonosov Moscow State University under the guidance of academicians V.A.Sadovnichy and A.A.Akaev. The materials of the article reflect the view of Russian scientists on the cardinal changes taking place in the world in recent decades, based on modeling of long-term (lasting hundreds and thousands of years) macro-social processes. The analysis of options for further world development is made. Analysis and modeling have shown that the interaction in the "society-nature" system will depend on the type of social interactions that will be formed in the future society.

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"Forecasting the Number of Grandparents in Sverdlovsk Oblast." In XII Ural Demographic Forum “Paradigms and models of demographic development”. Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.17059/udf-2021-2-20.

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An increase in the participation of grandparents in the life of their grandchildren has demographic, social, and economic effects. In this regard, one of the main indicators of the demography of grandparenthood is the number of grandparents in society. Using the authors’ approach developed based on the methodology for forecasting the number of grandparents in the country as a whole, the present research forecasts the number of grandmothers in Sverdlovsk oblast for 2021–2025. Calculations show that, in Sverdlovsk oblast, this indicator is unlikely to change in the 5-year perspective; the share of grandmothers in the population of the region is also stable. Understanding of the perspective quantitative trends can prompt the executive bodies of Russian regions responsible for demographic policy to make decisions aimed at improving the qualitative characteristics of grandparents, namely, increasing the share of grandparents actively involved in the life of grandchildren in the number of all grandparents in the region.

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Barata, Luis, João Gonçalves, João Palhares, Eurico Lopes, and Arminda Lopes. "Big Data and Traffic Data Analysis: Urban Traffic Forecasting and Management." In 23ª Conferência da Associação Portuguesa de Sistemas de Informação. Associação Portuguesa de Sistemas de Informação, APSI, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.18803/capsi.v23.337-347.

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The paper reviews different methodologies and technologies used in urban traffic management and analysis systems based on Big Data. Several techniques are discussed, such as the installation of sensors, IoT devices and surveillance cameras for data collection, the use of machine learning algorithms and technologies for vehicle identification and classification, the use of Map Reduce techniques for data processing, and the communication between several social network applications to obtain real-time data about the location and movement of users. In addition, models based on neural networks and algorithms such as ABC are proposed for signal change prediction and traffic flow management. The advantages and disadvantages of each approach and how they can be applied to improve urban traffic management and reduce vehicle pollution are highlighted.

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Azmat, Muneeza, Malvern Madondo, Arun Bawa, Kelsey Dipietro, Raya Horesh, Michael Jacobs, Raghavan Srinivasan, and Fearghal O'Donncha. "Forecasting Soil Moisture Using Domain Inspired Temporal Graph Convolution Neural Networks To Guide Sustainable Crop Management." In Thirty-Second International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence {IJCAI-23}. California: International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence Organization, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2023/654.

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Agriculture faces unprecedented challenges due to climate change, population growth, and water scarcity. These challenges highlight the need for efficient resource usage to optimize crop production. Conventional techniques for forecasting hydrological response features, such as soil moisture, rely on physics-based and empirical hydrological models, which necessitate significant time and domain expertise. Drawing inspiration from traditional hydrological modeling, a novel temporal graph convolution neural network has been constructed. This involves grouping units based on their time-varying hydrological properties, constructing graph topologies for each cluster based on similarity using dynamic time warping, and utilizing graph convolutions and a gated recurrent neural network to forecast soil moisture. The method has been trained, validated, and tested on field-scale time series data spanning 40 years in northeastern United States. Results show that using domain-inspired clustering with time series graph neural networks is more effective in forecasting soil moisture than existing models. This framework is being deployed as part of a pro bono social impact program that leverages hybrid cloud and AI technologies to enhance and scale non-profit and government organizations. The trained models are currently being deployed on a series of small-holding farms in central Texas.

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Mahajan, Aniruddha, and Milind Baride. "Fast Track Implementation of Large Projects in Today's VUCA Environment." In ADIPEC. SPE, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/216728-ms.

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Abstract The decade of 2020's started with one crisis after another be it the COVID 19 pandemic which started from Wuhan China and quickly engulfed the world followed by quarantine measures, deglobalization, shipping crisis and the Ukraine war. While COVID 19 had already disrupted supply chains leading to non-availability of finished goods and raw materials causing an unprecedented escalation of prices in a short duration. The traditional commodities cycle has been disrupted due to changes in technology and consumption trends. Further the social issues due to social distancing, health emergencies, death and remote working affected each individual and the effects are still being felt. The episodes of crisis of late have become frequent with lesser breathing space afforded to businesses to recover, recoup and be future ready. Decarbonization, digitalization, geopolitics, market dynamics, ESG etc. are emerging megatrends that compel sectors and corporates to undertake structural changes and fundamentally alter traditional business models. The decarbonization requirements which require existing facilities to reduce their carbon footprint and the move towards green energies away from traditional fossil fuel requires existing and new facilities to be reconfigured to incorporate current ESG requirement. Prior to the pandemic while organizations were battling shortages of skilled resources the pandemic accentuated the shortage with quarantine restrictions, social distancing, and remote working. The Hydrocarbon EPC industry's ageing demographics did not help the matter. The conservative Hydrocarbon industry is slowly beginning to adapt to the pace of change of the last few years. Digitization and digital technologies with Cloud computing and artificial intelligence has required that the resources need to be continuously trained and reskilled. With subsequent waves of COVID19 pandemic Force Majeure clauses got triggered in most Contracts impacting the projects and the disruption and delays to projects was at a scale not previously experienced. The requirement of energy and goods also fluctuated widely during pandemic production cuts had to be put in place whereas post pandemic the production had to be quickly ramped up to meet the demand. Thus, more than ever we live in a VUCA environment. VUCA stands for Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous. Volatility is characterized by quick changes which are difficult to predict in terms of their time and duration. This unpredictability makes planning tricky due to the increasing size, nature, pace, and amount of change. Uncertainty is the inability to predict issues and events. Despite understanding that change is happening, given that the events basic cause is known and possible effects can be anticipated, the exact outcomes are unpredictable. Most of the time the events are unprecedented and hence there are no past experiences to fall back upon. Uncertainty ensures that forecasting and planning becomes a risky game. Complexity is when there are too many variables at play, too much data available with very little understanding of their relationship and interdependencies. Ambiguity is difficulty in identifying issues, reality, and possible multiple interpretations. Everything is grey while we need it to be black and white. While VUCA can make or break businesses it has greatest impact on people and can Destabilize people and make them anxious.Make constant retraining and reshaping a necessity.Take huge amounts of time and effort to fight.Paralyze decision-making processes.Increase the chances of people making bad decisions.Jeopardize long-term projects, developments and innovations.Overwhelm individuals and organizations.Take its toll on internal culture and create VUCA environments within organizations.

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Rudik, А. V., E. V. Antonov, and A. A. Artamonov. "Tools for Assessing a Country's Science and Technology landscape." In 33rd International Conference on Computer Graphics and Vision. Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.20948/graphicon-2023-256-265.

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The study of scientific and technological potential is an important task in determining the technological leadership of countries. There is no universal indicator for its assessment, it is common to consider a set of indirect indicators for the implementation of such studies. The paper considers the tool for assessing the S&T landscape of countries on the example of Japan and the Republic of Korea, as well as the visualization of the results, which allows to present large amounts of data in an easy-to-understand format. The paper analyzes existing methodologies for assessing the S&T landscape, including the methodology for assessing the potential for modernization of the industrial complex, technological forecasting and social change through the citation network and topic analysis, patent landscape. The collection and processing of scientific publications of the selected countries of 1,803,000 by means of software tools are considered, and a data repository is compiled. A tool for assessing the S&T landscape is presented, including its visualization in the form of a 3D graph at the scale of the scientific field and the country as a whole.

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GEMMA, Sergejs, and Zane VĪTOLIŅA. "EUROPE 2020 TARGETS: THE PROGRESS OF THE BALTIC COUNTRIES IN TERMS OF RIS3." In RURAL DEVELOPMENT. Aleksandras Stulginskis University, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.15544/rd.2017.056.

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The Europe 2020 strategy was proposed by the European Commission with an aim to improve European Union (EU) competitiveness and promote economic growth. For the successful achievement of economic growth using the Smart Specialization Strategy (RIS3) in the EU, the European Commission has set out five interrelated headline targets to be achieved by 2020 in the areas of employment, research and development, climate change and energy, education and poverty and social exclusion. The targets are translated into national targets for each EU Member State; at the same time, they are common goals for all the EU Member States to be achieved through a mix of national and EU actions. The authors of the research used statistical data on the Europe 2020 targets to detect progress or regress in achieving these targets, the accuracy of target value detection and the implementation of RIS3 in the EU. The aim of the research is to evaluate RIS3 progress based on the Europe 2020 targets. The following tasks were set: 1) To calculate progress on each Europe 2020 target for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania using Eurostat statistical data; 2) To evaluate the calculated data and compare the data with those for the other Baltic States and the EU average; 3) To forecast RIS3 development for the year 2020 in the Baltic States. The research employed the monographic and descriptive methods as well as analysis, synthesis, the graphic method, the data grouping method and forecasting. All the three Baltic States have exceeded their target values on employment and education. Low indicators – just half of the target value – the Baltic States have on the share of the EU’s GDP invested in Research and Development. Other positions such as green energy, poverty and social exclusion mostly show a need for more active and effective action for achieving the Europe 2020 targets.

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REABENCHI, Eugen. "Analysis and prediction of fashion trends. How social trends affect fashion." In Ştiință și educație: noi abordări și perspective. "Ion Creanga" State Pedagogical University, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.46727/c.v3.24-25-03-2023.p178-183.

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Today it is no longer enough to just catch the changes in society and use this knowledge: we have to be proactive: we “predict” and then quickly and accurately formulate the trends. Fashion design, as a creative unit, is a branch of production in which the use of forecasting techniques and systems is of particular importance, which makes it possible to predict directions and trends in the use of new technologies, materials and methods of producing a design. Forecasting development trends in these areas is an important way to form promising clothing collections with positive social impact. Using predictive design techniques allows companies to plan their product lineup to meet customer demand and have overall social value. The need to predict trends stems from the shared interest of designers and industry groups for commercial success. Based on forecasts, designers strive not only to meet the expectations of a target group, but also to create new materials and develop modern technologies. There are many approaches to forecasting in design: formal, intuitive, sociological and even astrological.

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Звіти організацій з теми "Social change – Forecasting"

Ortiz, Veronica, Joaquin Tintore, and Nicole Köstner. EuroSea Guide of communication and dissemination activities for enhanced visibility of innovation in ocean observing and forecasting for a sustainable ocean. EuroSea, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.3289/eurosea_d8.10.

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The purpose of this report is to provide a compilation of the communication and dissemination activities in EuroSea. It also proposes, as a guide, some guidelines and considerations to be included in the Communication and Dissemination Strategy in European projects. Dissemination and communication activities are essential for the success of the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation Programme, and the EuroSea project is no exception. The project has focused on improving ocean observing and forecasting for a sustainable ocean, and effective communication has been a crucial element in bringing together the interest groups, ensuring all stakeholders are to work towards the common goal of sustainable, science-based ocean management, as well as promoting and fostering public understanding of the importance and value of the ocean and its crucial role in climate change. This document offers a summary of the consortium's activities carried out during the whole life of the project (November 2019 - October 2023) related to all EuroSea communication and dissemination tools (official website, social media, newsletter, press release), as well as materials generated for the project (visual identity, printed and audiovisual materials) and the events-based dissemination. Key considerations in planning and strategy include defining project objectives, identifying target audiences, crafting effective messages, and selecting appropriate communication channels and tools. Evaluation and adjustment are also vital to measure the effectiveness of communication and dissemination activities. Overall, this guide could serve as a resource for any team involved in communication and dissemination activities in projects from Horizon 2020. This information will be instrumental in enhancing future efforts, maximizing the impact of the activities and ensuring the success of the project. (EuroSea Deliverable, D8.10)

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Iyer, Ananth V., Thomas Brady, Steven R. Dunlop, Dutt J. Thakkar, Saichandar Naini, Srinath Jayan, Suraj Vasu, Sanjayraj Mohanraj, and Janani Srinvasan. Forecasting Freight Logistic Needs and INDOT Plans. Purdue University, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.5703/1288284317372.

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This project focused on forecasting freight logistics needs and developing and analyzing capacity plans for INDOT to consider. The forecast timeframe ranges from the 2020 to 2045; the commodities considered are those used in the FHWA framework. We considered five SSP (Shared Socio-Economic Pathways) scenarios that are in sync with those used by the IPCC (International Protocol for Climate Change). We also use the IPCC forecasts of world GDP and FHWA forecasts to develop county-level freight forecasts by commodity. A survey of industry participants, primarily in manufacturing, suggests that Indiana industries are tied to the rest of the country and the world for supply of inputs as well as for demand markets. Finally, we focus on three different industries—the recreational vehicle (RV) industry in Elkhart County, the furniture industry in Dubois County, and the Honda plant in Decatur County—to illustrate the impact of bill of materials and growth forecasts on forecasted congestion and potential capacity mitigation. Our results suggest that proactive capacity planning can enable INDOT to anticipate and ease congestion and ensure continued economic competitiveness for Indiana industries.

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Giusta, Elena. EuroSea recommendations on RRI in OO. EuroSea, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.3289/eurosea_d8.9.

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The EuroSea project is improving the coordination of the European ocean observing and forecasting system to strengthen its capability of tacking the societal challenges related to ocean health, climate change, mitigation of ocean-related natural hazards, and the sustainable exploitation of marine ecosystem services in the Blue Economy. The scientific excellence of the project is based on its better integration, assimilation, coordination and governance of methods, practices, and instruments to collect fit-for-purpose ocean data and the development of innovative tools and solutions to manage some natural coastal risks and support more efficiently fisheries and aquaculture. The societal impact of the research and innovation activities carried out by the EuroSea consortium is enabled through the responsible research and innovation (RRI) policy concept implemented throughout the project progress development and, in particular, in the demonstrators work packages and in those activities focused on communication, dissemination, exploitation and legacy. This report summarizes how the six articulations of the RRI approach were applied so far in the EuroSea project. It also offers some recommendations to boost the societal benefits provided by inclusivity, equality, ethics, transparency and collaborative co-design and co-creation in the research and innovation process applied to ocean observing. Now, and even more in the future, it is necessary to multiply the opportunities to share knowledge and expertise among all transdisciplinary actors to be engaged in improving the European and global ocean observing and forecasting. Moreover, the emerging critical problems affecting the ocean require an increased public involvement through open access to ocean information, effective communication and dissemination of research findings, more diffuse ocean literacy and collective mobilisation. Only these factors seem to be able to establish the global common responsibility necessary to enhance the ocean sustainability, as advocated by the UN Decade for Ocean Science for Sustainable Development supporting the achievement of the SDG 14 in the UN Agenda 2030. (EuroSea Deliverable, D8.9)

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Zarate, Sebastian, Ilaria Cimadori, Maria Mercedes Roca, Michael S. Jones, and Katie Barnhill-Dilling. Assessment of the Regulatory and Institutional Framework for Agricultural Gene Editing via CRISPR-based Technologies in Latin America and the Caribbean. Inter-American Development Bank, May 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0004904.

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Genome editing tools have promised tremendous opportunities in agriculture for breeding crops and livestock across the food supply chain. Potentially addressing issues associated with a growing global population, sustainability concerns, and possibly helping address the effects of climate change (Kuiken, Barrangou, and Grieger 2021). These promises come alongside environmental, cultural, and socio-economic risks. Including concerns that governance systems are not keeping pace with technological developments and are ill-equipped, or not well suited to evaluate risks new genome editing tools may introduce. Understanding these complex, dynamic interactions across the LAC region is important to inform appropriate and acceptable regional governance and investment strategies. The power and promise of gene editing, CRISPR specifically, were first realized with the discovery of CRISPR loci in the 1980s (Anzalone, Koblan, and Liu 2020). Since that time, CRISPR-Cas systems have been further developed enabling genome editing in virtually all organisms across the tree of life (Anzalone, Koblan, and Liu 2020). Gene editing is not a singular technology or technique; it refers most often to a set of techniques that enable the manipulation of a genome with greater precision than previous iterations of genetic engineering (Shukla-Jones, Friedrichs, and Winickoff 2018b). The Inter-American Development Bank partnered with North Carolina State Universitys Genetic Engineering and Society (GES) Center to assess the regulatory and institutional frameworks surrounding gene-editing via CRISPR-based technologies in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) regions. The project studied the following core components: Current Policy Evaluation: Understanding what the future may hold requires a critical examination of the current status of the regulatory landscape. Analysis of the existing regulatory systems for agricultural biotechnologies throughout Latin America and how they included considerations for novel biotechnology strategies such as gene editing through CRISPR technologies were done. Forecasting and Future Policy Scenario Analysis: Potential products created through gene editing may face very different situations on the ground, depending on countries diverse regulations and market structures. To clarify the potential impacts of regulatory reforms, we included concrete case studies in our analysis. Identifying investment priorities: The diversity of the region naturally means that countries will have unique priorities and needs with respect to investment in agricultural biotechnology development and regulatory infrastructure. The document evaluates the accomplishments of the region in the development of gene edited products, highlighting both private and public sector innovations.

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Ryu, Kirak, and Hanna Moon. Skills for Work: Knowledge Sharing Forum on Development Experiences: Comparative Experiences of Korea and Latin America and the Caribbean. Inter-American Development Bank, June 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0007000.

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This study investigates Korea's success in the area of skills development and what role the Korean government played during the stages of Korean economic development since the 1960s. Major achievements connected with the Korean skills development system over the last few decades are described and evaluated. However, it is worth noting that the Korean system has confronted challenges, arising from rapid changes in the economic and social environment that have put the sustainability of its current skills development system into question. In this regard, this study also analyzes the direction the Korean skills development system is moving toward and makes policy recommendations concerning how current challenges may be better handled.In doing so, the notion of lifelong skills development is derived. This notion signals a shift away from a government-led, supply driven model towards a locally based, demand-driven model, in order to align the supply of education and training programs with the needs of local business, and the improved effectiveness of Korea's skills development system over the coming years. The Korean government has played a key role in establishing the skills development system over the last few decades. Government intervention in skills development has addressed both the public and private sector. In the public sector, government initiatives established vocational education and training institutions in response to rising demand for skills, and according to economic development strategy. In the private sector, government legislation established regulations and institutions that incentivized private employer investment in in-plant training by providing financial support (e.g., levy-exemption) until the late 1990s, with the levygrant system under the Employment Insurance Act effective since 1995. These measures helped employers to bear costs related to training prospective and existing employees. Additionally, national qualification systems helped job seekers to undertake vocational training, which was in high demand throughout the labor market. This paper briefly describes challenges and concerns connected with establishing a lifelong skills development system in Korea. The analysis will focus on how the existing government-led VET system may be transformed into a public-private partnership based model that provides better VET programs. Additionally, the VET system needs to foster lifelong employment or employability rather than lifelong jobs, which was previously the cornerstone of the Korean employment system. Regarding career development, policy intervention needs to disestablish the "monorail" career trajectory of school-work-retirement, in favor of diversified careers by establishing flexible and competency-based qualification systems. This paper also describes some examples of instances of application of the lifelong skills development system in Korea. In-depth case studies are carried out regarding the development and application of National Competency Standards, the local-industry tailored skills development system, and reform of secondary vocational education focused on specialized vocational and Meister Schools in Korea. However, the Korean central government must still perform a significant role in managing and monitoring skills development. It should continue to use policy to foster public-private partnership in skills development, as local municipalities and sectoral stakeholders are yet to develop their own capabilities in this area. In addition, National Competency Standards (NCS) and regional Human Resources Development (HRD) committees need to further develop their roles and functions in order to better meet the diversified demands of business and employees and adapt to rapid technological and organizational changes. To further expedite the fine-tuning of skill policy in rapidly changing markets, forecasting skill demand and supply requires further attention, although it is becoming incr

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Anderson, Donald M., Lorraine C. Backer, Keith Bouma-Gregson, Holly A. Bowers, V. Monica Bricelj, Lesley D’Anglada, Jonathan Deeds, et al. Harmful Algal Research & Response: A National Environmental Science Strategy (HARRNESS), 2024-2034. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, July 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1575/1912/69773.

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Harmful and toxic algal blooms (HABs) are a well-established and severe threat to human health, economies, and marine and freshwater ecosystems on all coasts of the United States and its inland waters. HABs can comprise microalgae, cyanobacteria, and macroalgae (seaweeds). Their impacts, intensity, and geographic range have increased over past decades due to both human-induced and natural changes. In this report, HABs refers to both marine algal and freshwater cyanobacterial events. This Harmful Algal Research and Response: A National Environmental Science Strategy (HARRNESS) 2024-2034 plan builds on major accomplishments from past efforts, provides a state of the science update since the previous decadal HARRNESS plan (2005-2015), identifies key information gaps, and presents forward-thinking solutions. Major achievements on many fronts since the last HARRNESS are detailed in this report. They include improved understanding of bloom dynamics of large-scale regional HABs such as those of Pseudo-nitzschia on the west coast, Alexandrium on the east coast, Karenia brevis on the west Florida shelf, and Microcystis in Lake Erie, and advances in HAB sensor technology, allowing deployment on fixed and mobile platforms for long-term, continuous, remote HAB cell and toxin observations. New HABs and impacts have emerged. Freshwater HABs now occur in many inland waterways and their public health impacts through drinking and recreational water contamination have been characterized and new monitoring efforts have been initiated. Freshwater HAB toxins are finding their way into marine environments and contaminating seafood with unknown consequences. Blooms of Dinophysis spp., which can cause diarrhetic shellfish poisoning, have appeared around the US coast, but the causes are not understood. Similarly, blooms of fish- and shellfish-killing HABs are occurring in many regions and are especially threatening to aquaculture. The science, management, and decision-making necessary to manage the threat of HABs continue to involve a multidisciplinary group of scientists, managers, and agencies at various levels. The initial HARRNESS framework and the resulting National HAB Committee (NHC) have proven effective means to coordinate the academic, management, and stakeholder communities interested in national HAB issues and provide these entities with a collective voice, in part through this updated HARRNESS report. Congress and the Executive Branch have supported most of the advances achieved under HARRNESS (2005-2015) and continue to make HABs a priority. Congress has reauthorized the Harmful Algal Bloom and Hypoxia Research and Control Act (HABHRCA) multiple times and continues to authorize the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to fund and conduct HAB research and response, has given new roles to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and required an Interagency Working Group on HABHRCA (IWG HABHRCA). These efforts have been instrumental in coordinating HAB responses by federal and state agencies. Initial appropriations for NOAA HAB research and response decreased after 2005, but have increased substantially in the last few years, leading to many advances in HAB management in marine coastal and Great Lakes regions. With no specific funding for HABs, the US EPA has provided funding to states through existing laws, such as the Clean Water Act, Safe Drinking Water Act, and to members of the Great Lakes Interagency Task Force through the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative, to assist states and tribes in addressing issues related to HAB toxins and hypoxia. The US EPA has also worked towards fulfilling its mandate by providing tools and resources to states, territories, and local governments to help manage HABs and cyanotoxins, to effectively communicate the risks of cyanotoxins and to assist public water systems and water managers to manage HABs. These tools and resources include documents to assist with adopting recommended recreational criteria and/or swimming advisories, recommendations for public water systems to choose to apply health advisories for cyanotoxins, risk communication templates, videos and toolkits, monitoring guidance, and drinking water treatment optimization documents. Beginning in 2018, Congress has directed the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to develop a HAB research initiative to deliver scalable HAB prevention, detection, and management technologies intended to reduce the frequency and severity of HAB impacts to our Nation’s freshwater resources. Since the initial HARRNESS report, other federal agencies have become increasingly engaged in addressing HABs, a trend likely to continue given the evolution of regulations(e.g., US EPA drinking water health advisories and recreational water quality criteria for two cyanotoxins), and new understanding of risks associated with freshwater HABs. The NSF/NIEHS Oceans and Human Health Program has contributed substantially to our understanding of HABs. The US Geological Survey, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the National Aeronautics Space Administration also contribute to HAB-related activities. In the preparation of this report, input was sought early on from a wide range of stakeholders, including participants from academia, industry, and government. The aim of this interdisciplinary effort is to provide summary information that will guide future research and management of HABs and inform policy development at the agency and congressional levels. As a result of this information gathering effort, four major HAB focus/programmatic areas were identified: 1) Observing systems, modeling, and forecasting; 2) Detection and ecological impacts, including genetics and bloom ecology; 3) HAB management including prevention, control, and mitigation, and 4) Human dimensions, including public health, socio-economics, outreach, and education. Focus groups were tasked with addressing a) our current understanding based on advances since HARRNESS 2005-2015, b) identification of critical information gaps and opportunities, and c) proposed recommendations for the future. The vision statement for HARRNESS 2024-2034 has been updated, as follows: “Over the next decade, in the context of global climate change projections, HARRNESS will define the magnitude, scope, and diversity of the HAB problem in US marine, brackish and freshwaters; strengthen coordination among agencies, stakeholders, and partners; advance the development of effective research and management solutions; and build resilience to address the broad range of US HAB problems impacting vulnerable communities and ecosystems.” This will guide federal, state, local and tribal agencies and nations, researchers, industry, and other organizations over the next decade to collectively work to address HAB problems in the United States.

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