Добірка наукової літератури з теми "Service recoveries"

Purpose This paper aims to present two updated typologies of service failures and recoveries in the omni-channel context. These typologies are based on customer complaints and recoveries collected from the corporate Facebook pages of four omni-channel department stores, two operating in Australia and two in the UK. Design/methodology/approach A document review is used of 400 customer complaints and recoveries. Content analysis is used to condense the Facebook data into categories of failures and recoveries. Findings Customer complaints on Facebook were triggered by a multitude of varying failures in the omni-channel context, given that it is the service brand that customers are experiencing, not just retail channels. The most prevalent failures were “bricks and mortar” shopping, delivery, marketing activities including communications and pricing, quality of goods and customer service. For service recoveries on Facebook, the four-dimensional justice framework appears valid. Research limitations/implications Study limitations include potentially missing details about the nature of the service failures and recoveries, including customer satisfaction with service recovery. Practical implications The typologies offer guidance to omni-channel retailers by showing the range of online and offline situations, including those unrelated to actual transactions that trigger customer complaints on Facebook and the tactics of recovering. Originality/value The authors contribute to the service domain by updating failure and recovery typologies to reflect the emerging omni-channel context, jointly exploring failures and recoveries on Facebook and applying a four-dimensional justice framework for recoveries on Facebook.

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose and empirically test a customer retention contingency model in service failure settings. Specifically, this research investigates how service recovery satisfaction (SRS) influences the relationship quality (RQ)-behavior chain. It also examines the moderating role of RQ and switching cost (SC) in the proposed model. Design/methodology/approach – A two-part survey study was performed and 303 valid responses from banking services users were obtained. The structural equation modeling was used in order to test the research hypotheses. Findings – The results of this study show that SRS influences purchase intentions and behavior via RQ. In addition, SC moderate the effect of RQ on purchase intentions whereas RQ moderates the effect of purchase intentions on purchase behavior. Practical implications – From a managerial standpoint, this research provides implications for service recovery management. In particular, the findings indicate the importance of RQ. When a service failure occurs, RQ not only mediates the effect of SRS on purchase intentions, but also facilitates transforming behavioral intentions into actual behavior. Originality/value – This research fills a void in the service recovery literature by linking service recovery performance to the RQ-behavior chain.

Purpose The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship among jurors’ attribution of responsibility of the error, patient styles and juror decisions (e.g. acquittal of the physician). Specifically, this research examines the influence of an individual’s approach to their healthcare (active vs. passive), and decisions to acquit in malpractice cases. Design/methodology/approach In total, 459 individuals were surveyed using a commercial call center for participation in a corresponding mail survey. Surveys were also distributed to undergraduate business students at a Midwestern university. Findings Cluster analysis revealed two categories of patient styles: “active patients” (39.4 per cent) and “passive patients” (60.6 per cent). Regardless of patient style, this research found all respondents viewed medical error disclosure as important. However, respondents in the passive group were more likely to acquit the physician and the hospital nursing staff as compared with those classified as active. Practical implications The safety of patients in the healthcare system and prevention of errors is a critical issue. However, when errors occur, medical providers should disclose information to the patient and take responsibility to attenuate their negative impact. Further, this research reveals that patients who rely more on their physicians, trust their recommendations and question physicians less are more likely to acquit. Medical providers can use this information as motivation to continue to build this type of trust with their patients. Originality/value Medical errors are costly for all parties involved. This research provides insight for not only members of the legal profession involved in medical malpractice cases, but also risk managers and hospital administrators and healthcare providers regarding the decision-making process used by individuals serving on a jury.

Purpose This paper aims to explore the influence of frontline employees’ (FLEs’) positive psychological capacities (PPCs) (optimism, hope, resilience and self-efficacy) on service recovery. Design/methodology/approach A model of FLE PPCs is tested using two studies: a field study (Nretail = 205; Nrestaurant = 160) and between-subject experimental design (Neducation = 206) in three service settings. Findings Results show that positive emotions mediate the relationship between PPCs and problem-solving adaptability, and that authenticity of positive emotions moderates the relationship between positive emotions and interactional justice. Surprisingly, problem-solving adaptability positively influences perceptions of distributive justice and interactional justice. A small interaction effect between positive emotions and problem-solving adaptability also was found. Research limitations/implications The dependent variable (problem-solving adaptability) was measured using an open-ended question evaluated by objective, independent raters rather than a self-reported structured metric, to minimize social desirability bias. Practical implications Given that the customer complaints to the Better Business Bureau in 2016 were close to one million, most of them occurring in the service sector, service firms need continuous research into improving service recovery. This study argues that firms can improve FLEs’ problem-solving adaptability behavior by training existing FLEs to strengthen PPCs, hiring FLEs that have strong PPCs and fostering positive emotions. Originality/value This is the first study that examines the effect of PPCs on service recovery outcomes. By incorporating PPCs as antecedents of positive emotions, this paper explains how FLEs can offer a better recovery rather than dictating what they ought to display and say. An explanation of how FLE PPCs influence customer outcomes via the broaden-and-build theory of positive emotions and emotion contagion theory is offered, highlighting a novel path/relationship between FLE positive emotions and problem-solving abilities, and extending emotion contagion to service recovery.

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine how service failure affects customers’ negative response and how service recovery affects perceived justice in the context of different relationship norms. Design/methodology/approach – It includes four studies that examine how relationships influence customer reactions to service failures. In study 1, the paper examines how service failures affect customers’ negative reaction. In study 2, the paper examines how service recoveries influence perceived justice. Study 3 and study 4 test the robustness of the results of study 1 and study 2. All studies have a 2×2 between-subjects design. Findings – The results show that individuals in exchange relationships experience a stronger feeling of betrayal than those in communal relationships during service failures. Further, individuals feel more betrayed and show greater negative responses during process failures. They perceive greater justice when offered physical recoveries, which, in turn, contributes to higher service-recovery satisfaction. Research limitations/implications – This study was conducted in Taiwan. Customer reactions to service failures may vary according to cultural and environmental contexts. Practical implications – Service providers are encouraged to cultivate relationships with customers and identify different types of customers to compensate them more effectively, according to their preferences. Originality/value – This study introduces relationship norms to investigate consumer responses to service failures. The main contributions are twofold; it investigates the effect of relationship norms on customer responses to service-failure types and service-recovery types.

The Federal False Claims Act (FCA) creates civil liability for entities that falsely or fraudulently contract with the government to provide services or goods in exchange for federal funds. FCA cases often arise in healthcare contexts in which the government pays entities for providing products and services to eligible beneficiaries. With the growth of Medicare and Medicaid funding for healthcare services, there has been a corresponding increase of false claims and FCA cases, in the healthcare context. For instance, of the over 30 billion recovered by the government for FCA cases in the last fifteen years, recoveries from Health and Human Services constitutes over 20 billion.An FCA case may involve a false representation that a service has been provided when in fact it has not. Such a case may also involve a false representation of compliance with underlying governmental requirements for payment. Recently, there has been growing confusion as to how to address cases in which the defendant is not the party actually submitting the allegedly false claim, but the party that caused the false claim to be filed.

Biodiversity loss is occurring at an unprecedented rate and most of this loss is due to human induced pressure. This loss in biodiversity had led to concerns that the provision of ecosystem services that humans depend upon might be negatively affected. As such much modern conservation science focusses on preserving biodiversity whilst protecting priority ecosystem services. However, there may be spatial and temporal trade-offs between these services and the biodiversity that is considered important. Characterisation of such the relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem services is vital in order to improve management and policies which aim to protect and restore both biodiversity and ecosystem services. The broad aims of the thesis were to explore biodiversity-ecosystem service relationships in (1) ecosystems invaded by non-native plant species and (2) tropical forests affected by human exploitation and disturbance. Specifically this thesis aimed to answer the questions: 1. What effect do non-native plant invasions have on aboveground carbon storage, belowground carbon storage, carbon sequestration, water quality and water provision? 2. How do changes in species richness affect this ecosystem service provision? 3. How do these changes relate to the woodiness and traits of invasive and native dominant species, and the type of ecosystem invaded? 4. What factors drive differences in residual stand damage, biomass loss and species richness change following selective logging? 5. After deforestation how long do carbon stocks and plant biodiversity take to recover in tropical forests? 6. Do carbon and plant biodiversity differ in their recovery rates? 7. Which areas are priorities for restoration of tropical carbon? All chapters in this thesis make use of large datasets that I collated from the literature and other authors in order to draw broad conclusions about trade-offs and relationships between services and biodiversity In the section concentrating on invasive species my results suggest that non-native invasive plants generally increase the storage of carbon, whilst reducing water quality and availability. This may indicate a fundamental trade-off between services where increased biomass of plants results in higher evapotranspiration and thus water loss, while also enhancing the carbon cycle and nitrogen production of microorganisms. In addition my results suggest that aboveground carbon storage increases as species richness is reduced, showing the opposite relationship to that shown in many biodiversity ecosystem functioning experiments. This is the first time any such relationship has been found between community change and ecosystem level impacts in the context of species invasions. However, it seems likely that this relationship depends on the identity and traits of the species, with invasions in open habitats by woody species likely to drive a negative relationship between richness change and biomass change with the opposite true when grassy species invade woodlands. This result presents a trade-off between conservation priorities that managers will need to consider. In Chapter 3 I investigated the possibility of predicting the impact of non-native invasive plant impacts on ecosystem services by using characteristics and functional traits of both invasive and native species. This work suggested that aboveground carbon storage is most easily predicted by traits and characteristics of native and non-native species, with few other ecosystem services well explained by models. Results suggested that transition from woody to non-woody dominant species resulted in most dramatic changes in aboveground carbon storage. However, interestingly aboveground carbon storage also tended to increase where native species were replaced by species of similar woodiness. Similarly, given that woodiness and size of species are related, there was a positive relationship between the invasive species height and increases in aboveground carbon storage. However, all other ecosystem services were poorly predicted by species traits and characteristics. This work suggests that the most dramatic changes in carbon storage may result from shifts in ecosystems that resemble regime shifts. Future work addressing invasive species from this perspective is warranted as many invasions resemble such shifts. In Chapter 4 I investigated the relationships between logging intensity and methods and residual stem damage, biomass loss and species richness change in tropical logged forests. Many syntheses of the logging literature have made little distinction between logged sites, and only one has explored any of the mechanisms that may drive heterogeneity in logging impacts. This is particularly surprising given that Reduced Impact Logging (RIL) has been implemented relatively widely principally to reduce carbon loss from logged forests. My results from this chapter suggest that the principal driver of logging impacts is the intensity at which logging is carried out, showing broadly negative relationships with biomass and tree species richness change and a positive relationship with residual stem damage. Interestingly, RIL appeared to reduce residual stem damage slightly but evidence for this effect was weaker in other analyses. These analyses also suggest a slight increase in tree species richness at low logging intensities, showing some similarities to intermediate disturbance hypothesis type relationships. This is suggestive of a complex relationship between tree species richness and biomass changes during logging that deviated substantially from that suggested in grassland biodiversity-ecosystem function experiments. This is as far as I know the first time this relationship has been suggested in the context of logged forests. The result from this chapter also suggest that there is weak support that RIL reduces logging damage at low intensities but little evidence that this is reflected by changes in biomass. Further studies are needed to discern the effect of RIL over a wide range of logging intensities. Chapter 5 investigates tropical forest recovery following agricultural clearance. In this chapter I aimed to identify the recovery times of different above and belowground carbon pools and tree and epiphyte species richness as well as tree species composition using studies that had paired mature forest sites as comparators. Surprisingly this chapter represents the first attempt to generalise about this recovery rate. The results suggest that following clearance carbon and species richness of plants recovers relatively quickly (<100 years), but species indicative of old forests are rarely present in recovering forests and show few signs of recovery. Thus, while carbon recovery goals may be achievable full recovery of plant biodiversity may require centuries. This slow recovery may be aided by active restoration. Finally in Chapter 6 I investigated which areas should be considered as priorities when restoring tropical forests for carbon storage and bird biodiversity. In this chapter I found evidence of spatial trade-offs between carbon storage and bird species recovery. Empirical models suggested that carbon is accumulated most rapidly in forests with long growing seasons, while probability of bird species presence was primarily driven by habitat specificity, range size and forest cover. Model projections suggested that areas that should be considered a priority for restoration targeting carbon storage are found in the wet tropics while priorities for restoration of bird biodiversity are found in mountainous areas. These analyses indicated that there was no relationship between the two goals, but that by using model projections it was possible to identify areas that maximised both. In summary work in this thesis provides the best synthesis of the relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem services in the context of non-native invasive plants, and selective logging and recovery from tropical forest clearance to date. This is of particular value because such relationships have rarely been explored in these contexts despite widespread and of global importance for conservation.

The purpose of this study is to see if all the special circumstances, extra classes, and parenting aspects of a treatment program are effective for pregnant substance abusing women. This study also explored the factors that contributed to the perceived satisfaction and effectiveness of the clients enrolled in a drug and alcohol treatment program.

This thesis compared the perceptions of older adult recovering substance abusers with the perceptions of alcohol and drug treatment providers on what each sample believed would be the most appropriate delivery methods and locations for alcohol and drug treatment services to individuals 50 years of age and older. Sixty participants, 30 subjects from each sample group, completed a questionnaire created by the researcher. Results showed there were no significant differences in perceptions of older adult substance abusers and drug treatment providers about the most appropriate treatment methods and locations for treatment. Additional findings included suggestions from participants about ways to improve current treatment modalities and locations. Results suggested the need for provider education on age-specific issues faced by the older adult addict.

Graphic images of meth addicts have swept across Montana in television, radio and print ads as part of the state's latest anti-drug campaign, the Montana Meth Project. From a labeling perspective, the negative portrayal of meth addicts in these ads has significant implications for meth addicts in terms of their reintegration. The unintended population of drug addicts potentially affected by public service campaigns has failed to gain attention in the literature despite the implications suggested by labeling theory. This poses a significant gap in our knowledge and understanding, which this study addresses through the voice of recovering meth addicts. This study explored the significance of the campaign with regard to the worldview of recovering meth addicts and the implications of this worldview with regard to their reintegration. In particular, the study examined 1) addict perceptions of the campaign's impact on community 2) addict perceptions of the campaign's personal impact 3) addict perceptions of the significance of social bonds 4) the implications of these perspectives from the theoretical standpoint of Labeling and Social Bond theory. In-depth interviews were conducted among a sample of twenty recovering meth addicts at a treatment facility in Grenadier, Montana as well as one active meth user. This form of data collection was chosen due to the exploratory nature of the study as well the significance of perception suggested by the Symbolic-Interaction perspective (Cooley 1902). The study revealed that the Montana Meth Project does have a significant impact on the worldview of the participants. When the participants believe the campaign has a positive impact on the community - creating awareness, understanding and acceptance - the campaign is viewed as a tool in their reintegration. However, as the bulk of the findings suggest, when the participants believe the campaign has a negative impact - stereotypes, labeling, stigmatization and differential treatment - the campaign is viewed as a barrier to their reintegration. With such a negative reaction in the worldview of the participants, the mainstream world including family, friends and the community did not appear to be at the forefront of their reintegration. Rather, a subculture of recovering addicts acts as the source of positive social bonds and the most significant in the reintegration of the participants. The findings of this study demonstrate the impact anti- drug campaigns, and particularly scare campaigns using a public service approach, can have on the unintended audience of drug addicts.

Masters in Public Administration - MPA
Rwandan local government system is currently making an important turning point with the introduction of democratic decentralisation. This study was carried out in order to find out the prospects and challenges of democratic decentralisation in Rwandan context. From Rwanda's independence in 1962 up to the 1999 administrative reforms, local governments, namely communes, have largely failed in their mission of being basic development units. Democratic decentralisation was then introduced to bridge gaps and correct weaknesses that undemined local governance in the past. There are some challenges like generalised poverty in the country, the nonparticipation, and dependence syndrome among citizens that need to be overcome. However, there are also opportunities that ought to be taken advantage if democratic decentralisation is to really take root in Rwanda. The main opportunity is commitment to to democracy and decentralisation by all stakeholders, the national leadership, local authorities and citizens in general. However, democratic decentralisation cannot be attained quickly. It is achieved gradually depending on citizens' understanding and to the availability of the resources. authorities and citizens in general

碩士
中國文化大學
國際企業管理研究所
89
ABSTRACT Because the service failure is unavoidable, if service failure occurs during service delivery system, good service recovery can enhance customer satisfaction, establish the relationship with customer, and prevent customer from betraying the brand. But if ser-vice recovery doesn’t execute in effective way, it will increase the opportunity of the customer dissatisfaction. So, to understand what kind of the service recovery is fitting with customer’s demand is very important. Therefore, this research using perceived jus-tice to discuss with the influence of the service recovery way and customer satisfaction to the attitudes. This research refers to the research framework of Tax and Brown (1998), it appears that customer will estimate if he obtains fair treatment from three layers of service recovery. That is “outcome justice”, “procedural justice”, “interactional justice” and it will influence the customer‘s trust and commitment to the enterprise by customer satisfaction. This research is using experiment design framework, totally 54 experiment groups, to direct at the postgraduate students of Chinese Culture University, Soochow Univer-sity, Ming Chuan University randomly dispense questionnaire, totally 736 effective questionnaires. The result appears that (1) After service failure occurs that if the more compensation the higher customer’s perceived justice in outcome justice. If the service provider’s attitude is more cordial, the customer get higher perceived justice in proce-dural justice. (2) Perceived justice is influence to customer satisfaction and when cus-tomer perceived in higher outcome justice, procedural justice, interactional justice, customer received higher satisfaction. (3) Each layer of perceived justice causes differ-ent significant influence to customer satisfaction. The biggest influence is outcome jus-tice ,the next is interactional justice and the last is procedural justice . Outcome justice and interactional justice cause big influence to customer satisfaction. (4) After service recovery , the higher customer satisfaction, the higher trust and commitment of enter-prise. (5) Service failure will influence to service recovery way and perceived justice.

碩士
明新科技大學
工業工程與管理系碩士在職專班
105
Abstract In order to enable customers to become loyal customers and a clear regional market, Dengfeng design studio actively improved the quality of interior design services and a remedy for the service failures, and adjusted the service recoveries strategy to achieve a comprehensive service effectiveness. An interview outline was set up in this paper and eight design studios in Hsinchu and Miaoli in terms of experience, personal characteristics, scale of operation, professional technology and so on would be selected. Secondly, different service failures were gathered from interviews of the eight design studios that then provided substantive remedial services. Interview outline design was mainly categorized in accordance with the problems of service failures, service recoveries, and remedial effects. According to the demand characteristics of owner repurchase and loyalty, eight design service remedial measures are analyzed, in which are more suitable for remedial. The results of the interviews showed that Dengfeng Design Studio's service remedies were in line with the principle of service recoveries. The owners agreed with the remedial principle, humanization, construction quality risk et al. of Dengfeng's design studio, and the owners will repurchase loyally. Keywords: Service failures, Service recoveries, Remedial effect

AbstractThe aim of this chapter is to provide an update on cancer epidemiology in Somalia as well as local and international responses to the challenges. After the collapse of the central government of Somalia in 1991, the country has plunged into civil war. Since then, Somalia has not had any governmental or non-governmental cancer care services. Currently, Somalia doesn’t have a single cancer center. The country has neither national cancer registries nor national cancer institutes. According to a study done by a Somali cancer specialist at the University of Somalia-Teaching Hospital, and Turkish doctors at Erdogan Hospital, published in seminars in oncology in 2017, the most frequent cancers in Somalia are esophageal, Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma, liver, breast, skin, thyroid, brain, bone, colorectal, and soft tissue. Somalia is recovering from a devastating civil war that continued for 30 years. This war has destroyed all the health facilities in the country, since then the country has not been able to reestablish the healthcare system. This absence of healthcare system and lack of human and financial resources are the biggest challenges of cancer care in the country. There is only one facility in the entire country where cancer care is given. The future of cancer care in Somalia is bright since more doctors are planning to specialize in cancer and more investors are planning to invest privately in the healthcare sector, especially cancer care. Also, as the Somali government is getting stronger, it is hoped the government will play a bigger role in cancer care in Somalia in the coming years.

AbstractThe literature is abound with references to the potential of indigenous and local knowledge (ILK) for sustainable landscape management, but empirical on-the-ground efforts that demonstrate this potential are still lacking. To identify interventions for improving the effectiveness and efficiency of forest restoration, participatory trials were set out in the Indian Himalaya, where per capita degraded land far exceeds per capita cropped/healthy forest land. Treatments were designed based on pooled indigenous and scientific knowledge taking into account farm-forest-livelihood interactions in cultural landscapes. The multipurpose tree-bamboo-medicinal herb mixed restoration plantation reached a state of economic benefit/cost ratio >1 in the eighth year and recovered 30–50% of flowering plant species and carbon stock in intact forest. The communities maintained but did not expand restoration in the absence of policies addressing their genuine needs and aspirations. Transformative change for sustainable restoration would include (1) nesting restoration in participatory, long-term, adaptive and integrated landscape development programmes, (2) formally involving communities in planning, monitoring, bioprospecting, and financial management, (3) assuring long-term funding but limited to the inputs unaffordable for local people, (4) stimulating the inquisitive minds of local people by enriching ILK and cultural heritage, (5) convincing policymakers to provide the scientific rationale behind policy stands, to support the regular interactions of communities with researchers, traders, and industrialists, to commit to genuine payment for ecosystem services in unambiguous terms at multiple spatial (household, village and village cluster) and temporal (short, medium and long-term) scales, and to support long-term participatory action research for development of “landscape restoration models” in varied socio-ecological scenarios.

In this chapter, the authors focus on the role of culture, which increases its effect along with globalization on service failures and improvements. The study is a type of literature review formed by compilation of previous studies in the extant literature. According to the primary findings of such studies, the approach of consumers to service failures and improvements vary depending on their culture. Different satisfaction levels, re-purchase tendency, word-of-mouth communication and its structure (positive or negative), seeing liable for failure, loyalty, replacement, and emotional response against service failures and improvements are seen between different cultures. The authors expect this study to provide clues to service marketing applications and future studies about the effect of culture.

The increasing advance of the new technologies applied in the retail market, make it common to sell products without the personal contact between seller and buyer, being the registration and payment of the products made in electronic equipment of self-checkout. The large-scale use of these devices forces the consumer to participate in the service process, which was previously done through interaction with the company's employees. The user of the self-checkout system thus performs all the steps of the purchase, from weighing the products, registering them and making the payment. This is seen as a partial employee, whose participation or performance in providing services can be used by the company to improve the quality of its operations (KELLEY, et al 1993). However this participation does not always satisfy the user, and may cause negative experiences related to usability failures. This article presents the results of the evaluation by the users of the self-checkout system. The data were collected in Portugal through a questionnaire to 400 users. The study analyzes the degree of satisfaction regarding the quality and usability of the system, the degree of motivation for its adoption, as well as the profile of the users. Analysis of the sample data reveals that users have basic or higher education and use new technologies very often. They also have a high domain of the system and an easy learning of its use. The reason for using self-checkout instead of the traditional checkout is mainly due to "queues at checkout with operator" and "at the small volume of products". In general, the sample reveals a high degree of satisfaction with the service and with quality, however, in comparative terms, self-checkout is not considered better than operator checkout. The evaluation of the interaction with the self-checkout was classified according to twenty-six attributes of the system. The analysis identifies five groups with similar characteristics, of which two have low scores. "Cancellation of registered articles", "search for articles without a bar code", "manual registration", "bagging area", "error messages", "weight sensor" and “invoice request "are seven critical attributes of the system. The results indicate that the usability analysis oriented to the self-checkout service can be determinant for the user-system interaction. The implications of empirical findings are discussed together with guidelines for future research.Keywords: Interaction Design, Self service, Self-checkout, User evaluation, UsabilityReferencias ABRAHÃO, J., et al (2013). Ergonomia e Usabilidade. 1ª Edição. São Paulo: Blucher. ALEXANDRE, J. W. C., et al (2013). Análise do número de categorias da escala de Likert aplicada à gestão pela qualidade total através da teoria da resposta ao item. In: XXIII Encontro Nacional de Engenharia de Produção, Ouro Preto. BOOTH, P. (2014). An Introduction to Human-Computer Interaction (Psychology Revivals). London Taylor and Francis. CASTRO, D., ATKINSON, R., EZELL, J., (2010). Embracing the Self-Service Economy, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. Available at SSRN: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1590982 CHANG, L.A. (1994). A psychometric evaluation of 4-point and 6-point Likert-type scale in relation to reliability and validity. Applied Psychological Measurement. v. 18, n. 2, p. 05-15. DABHOLKAR, P. A. (1996). Consumer Evaluations of New Technology-based Self-service Options: An Investigation of Alternative Models of Service Quality. International Journal of Research in Marketing, Vol. 13, pp. 29-51. DABHOLKAR, P. A., BAGOZZI, R. P. (2002). An Attitudinal Model of Technology-based Selfservice: Moderating Effects of Consumer Traits and Situational Factors. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Vol. 30 (3), pp. 184-201. DABHOLKAR, P. A., BOBBITT, L. M. &amp; LEE, E. (2003). Understanding Consumer Motivation and Behavior related to Self-scanning in Retailing. International Journal of Service Industry Management, Vol. 14 (1), pp. 59-95. DIX, A. et al (2004). Human-Computer Interaction. Third edition. Pearson/Prentice-Hall. New York. FERNANDES, F. et al, (2015). Do Ensaio à Investigação – Textos Breves Sobre a Investigação, Bernabé Hernandis, Carmen Lloret e Francisco Sanmartín (Editores), Oficina de Acción Internacional - Universidade Politécnica de Valência Edições ESAD.cr/IPL, Leiria. HELANDER, M., LANDAUER, T., PRABHU, P. (1997). Handbook of Human – Computer Interaction. North–Holland: Elsevier. KALLWEIT, K., SPREER, P. &amp; TOPOROWSKI, W. (2014). Why do Customers use Self-service Information Technologies in Retail? The Mediating Effect of Perceived Service Quality. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Vol. 21, pp. 268-276. KELLEY SW, HOFFMAN KD, DAVIS MA. (1993). A typology of retail failures and recoveries. J Retailing. 69(4):429 – 52.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an explosion of research using private-sector datasets to measure business dynamics and employment in real-time. Yet questions remain about the representativeness of these datasets and how to distinguish business openings and closings from sample churn – i.e., sample entry of already operating businesses and sample exits of businesses that continue operating. This paper proposes new methods to address these issues and applies them to the case of Homebase, a real-time dataset of mostly small service-sector sector businesses that has been used extensively in the literature to study the effects of the pandemic. We match the Homebase establishment records with information on business activity from Safegraph, Google, and Facebook to assess the representativeness of the data and to estimate the probability of business closings and openings among sample exits and entries. We then exploit the high frequency / geographic detail of the data to study whether small service-sector businesses have been hit harder by the pandemic than larger firms, and the extent to which the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) helped small businesses keep their workforce employed. We find that our real-time estimates of small business dynamics and employment during the pandemic are remarkably representative and closely fit population counterparts from administrative data that have recently become available. Distinguishing business closings and openings from sample churn is critical for these results. We also find that while employment by small businesses contracted more severely in the beginning of the pandemic than employment of larger businesses, it also recovered more strongly thereafter. In turn, our estimates suggests that the rapid rollout of PPP loans significantly mitigated the negative employment effects of the pandemic. Business closings and openings are a key driver for both results, thus underlining the importance of properly correcting for sample churn.

Diseases caused by Colletotrichum spp. are one of the most important limitations on international strawberry production, affecting all vegetative and fruiting parts of the plant. From 1995 to 1997, C. acutatum infections reached epidemic levels in Israeli strawberry nurseries, causing extensive loss of transplants in fruit-bearing fields and additional reductions in yield. Although C. acutatum also occurs on strawberry in Florida, recent crown rot epidemics have been primarily caused by C. gloeosporioides. Little is known about the basic epidemiology of these important diseases on strawberry. The source of initial inoculum for epidemics in Israel, Florida (other US states including California) and the rest of the world is not well understood. Subspecies relationships between Colletotrichum isolates that cause the different diseases on strawberry (i.e. attack different tissues) are also not well understood. Objectives of this proposal were to detennine the potential of infested soil, strawberry debris and other hosts as sources of primary inoculum for strawberry diseases caused by Colletotrichum spp. in Israel and Florida. In addition, traditional (ie. morphological characteristics, benomyl sensitivity, vegetative compatibility grouping) and DNA based methods were used to investigate the etiology of these diseases in order to resolve epidemiologically important subspecies variation. In Israel it was found that C. gloeosporioides and C. acutatum infecting strawberry could remain viable in sterilized soil for up to one year and in methyl-bromide fumigated soil for up to 4 months; inoculum in mummified fruit remained viable for at least 5 months under field conditions whereas that in infected crowns was not recovered. Therefore, the contribution of these inocula to disease epidemics should be considered. The host range and specificity of C. acutatum from strawberry was examined on pepper, eggplant, tomato, bean and strawberry under greenhouse conditions. The fungus was recovered from all plant species over a three-month period but caused disease symptoms only on strawberry. C. acutatum was also isolated from healthy looking, asymptomatic plants of the weed species, Vicia and Conyza, growing in infected strawberry fruiting fields. Isolates of C. acutatum originating from strawberry and anemone infected both plant species in artificial inoculations. The habitation of a large number of plant species including weeds by C. acutatum suggests that although it causes disease only on strawberry and anemone in Israel, these plants may serve as a potential inoculum source for strawberry infection and pennit survival of the pathogen between seasons. In Florida, isolates of Colletotrichum spp. from diseased strawberry fruit and crowns were evaluated to detennine their etiology and the genetic diversity of the pathogens. Only C. acutatum was recovered from fruit and C. gloeosporioides were the main species recovered from crowns. These isolates were evaluated at 40 putative genetic loci using random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD). Genetic analysis of RAPD markers revealed that the level of linkage disequilibrium among polymorphic loci in C. gloeosporioides suggested that they were a sexually reproducing population. Under field conditions in Florida, it was detennined that C. gloeosporioides in buried crowns survived

Truck platoons have many benefits over traditional truck mobility. Truck platoons have the potential to improve safety and reduce fuel consumption between 5% and 15%, based on platoon configuration. In Illinois, trucks carry more than 50% of freight tonnage and constitute 25% of the traffic on interstates. Therefore, expected fuel savings would be significant for trucks. Deployment of truck platoons within interstate highways may have a direct effect on flexible pavement performance, as the time between consecutive axle loads (i.e., resting time) is expected to decrease significantly. Moreover, platoons could potentially accelerate pavement damage accumulation due to trucks’ channelized position, decreasing pavement service life and increasing maintenance and rehabilitation costs. The main objective of this project was to quantify the effects of truck platoons on pavements and to provide guidelines to control corresponding potential pavement damage. Finite-element models were utilized to quantify the impact of rest period on pavement damage. Recovered and accumulated strains were predicted by fitting exponential functions to the calculated strain profiles. The results suggested that strain accumulation was negligible at a truck spacing greater that 10 ft. A new methodology to control pavement damage due to truck platoons was introduced. The method optimizes trucks’ lateral positions on the pavements, and an increase in pavement service life could be achieved if all platoons follow this optimization method. Life cycle assessment and life cycle cost analysis were conducted for fully autonomous, human-driven, and mixed-traffic regimes. For example, for an analysis period of 45 years, channelized truck platoons could save life cycle costs and environmental impacts by 28% and 21% compared with human-driven trucks, respectively. Furthermore, optimum truck platoon configuration could reduce life cycle costs and environmental impacts by 48% and 36%, respectively, compared with human-driven trucks. In contrast, channelized traffic could increase pavement roughness, increasing fuel consumption by 15%, even though platooning vehicles still benefit from reduction in air drag forces. Given that truck platoons are expected to be connected only in the first phase, no actions are required by the agency. However, in the second phase when truck platoons are also expected to be autonomous, a protocol for driving trends should be established per the recommendation of this study.

SUMMARY OF FIELD OPERATIONS Over the past year, fieldwork resumed at pre-pandemic levels. In February 2022, the wolf population was likely comprised of 28 wolves. This is an increase from the next most recent estimate of 12-14 wolves, made 24 months earlier in March 2020 (Fig. 1). The wolf population appears to be primarily organized as two main socia groups—an eastern pack consisting of at least 13 wolves and a western pack most likel consisting of 13 wolves—and two wolves that may not be part of either pack. There is evidence that pups were born to both packs in April 2021. For context, there is also evidence that one litter of pup was born in 2019 and two litters were born in 2020. Wolves appear to be an important cause of mortality for moose once again. In particular, this past year, the proportion of the moose population killed by wolves (i.e., the predation rate) was 8.7 percent. That rate is almost twice as high as the predation rate observed in 2020 (4.5 percent) and it is the highest predation rate observed since 2011. Overall, the new population of wolves on Isle Royale appear to be well-established and functioning healthily. Over the past year, the U.S. National Park Service (NPS) continued its efforts to outfit a small proportion of the wolf population with GPS radio collars to help monitor the recovering population. The estimated abundance of moose declined by 28 percent, from 1,876 to 1,346, between February 2020 and February 2022. Longer-term population trends suggest that the moose population had increased greatly over an eight-year period (2011-2019) but then started to decline over the last few years. The decline in moose abundance is likely a consequence of several factors, including higher predation rates by wolves, severe burdens of parasites (winter ticks), and a shortage of winter forage, indicated in part by an unusually high number of moose dying from malnutrition over the past two years. That shortage of winter forage, specifically balsam fir, is likely due to a combination of intense browsing by moose in previous years and recent defoliation due to budworm (moth larvae) in some regions of the park. In February 2022, 19 moose were outfitted with GPS collars so their movements and behavior can be monitored, adding to the 45 moose radio-collared between 2019 and 2020. For more information, visit isleroyalewolf.org and “Wolves and Moose of Isle Royale” on Facebook and Instagram.

To elucidate the role of ROS in the tri-trophic interactions in postharvest biocontrol systems a detailed molecular and biochemical investigation was undertaken. The application of the yeast biocontrol agent Metschnikowia fructicola, microarray analysis was performed on grapefruit surface wounds using an Affymetrix Citrus GeneChip. the data indicated that 1007 putative unigenes showed significant expression changes following wounding and yeast application relative to wounded controls. The expression of the genes encoding Respiratory burst oxidase (Rbo), mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) and mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase (MAPKK), G-proteins, chitinase (CHI), phenylalanine ammonia-lyase (PAL), chalcone synthase (CHS) and 4-coumarate-CoA ligase (4CL). In contrast, three genes, peroxidase (POD), superoxide dismutase (SOD) and catalase (CAT), were down-regulated in grapefruit peel tissue treated with yeast cells. The yeast antagonists, Metschnikowia fructicola (strain 277) and Candida oleophila (strain 182) generate relatively high levels of super oxide anion (O2−) following its interaction with wounded fruit surface. Using laser scanning confocal microscopy we observed that the application of M. fructicola and C. oleophila into citrus and apple fruit wounds correlated with an increase in H2O2 accumulation in host tissue. The present data, together with our earlier discovery of the importance of H₂O₂ production in the defense response of citrus flavedo to postharvest pathogens, indicate that the yeast-induced oxidative response in fruit exocarp may be associated with the ability of specific yeast species to serve as biocontrol agents for the management of postharvest diseases. Effect of ROS on yeast cells was also studied. Pretreatment of the yeast, Candida oleophila, with 5 mM H₂O₂ for 30 min (sublethal) increased yeast tolerance to subsequent lethal levels of oxidative stress (50 mM H₂O₂), high temperature (40 °C), and low pH (pH 4). Suppression subtractive hybridization analysis was used to identify genes expressed in yeast in response to sublethal oxidative stress. Transcript levels were confirmed using semi quantitative reverse transcription-PCR. Seven antioxidant genes were up regulated. Pretreatment of the yeast antagonist Candida oleophila with glycine betaine (GB) increases oxidative stress tolerance in the microenvironment of apple wounds. ROS production is greater when yeast antagonists used as biocontrol agents are applied in the wounds. Compared to untreated control yeast cells, GB-treated cells recovered from the oxidative stress environment of apple wounds exhibited less accumulation of ROS and lower levels of oxidative damage to cellular proteins and lipids. Additionally, GB-treated yeast exhibited greater biocontrol activity against Penicillium expansum and Botrytis cinerea, and faster growth in wounds of apple fruits compared to untreated yeast. The expression of major antioxidant genes, including peroxisomal catalase, peroxiredoxin TSA1, and glutathione peroxidase was elevated in the yeast by GB treatment. A mild heat shock (HS) pretreatment (30 min at 40 1C) improved the tolerance of M. fructicola to subsequent high temperature (45 1C, 20–30 min) and oxidative stress (0.4 mol-¹) hydrogen peroxide, 20–60 min). HS-treated yeast cells showed less accumulation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) than non-treated cells in response to both stresses. Additionally, HS-treated yeast exhibited significantly greater (P≥0.0001) biocontrol activity against Penicillium expansum and a significantly faster (Po0.0001) growth rate in wounds of apple fruits stored at 25 1C compared with the performance of untreated yeast cells. Transcription of a trehalose-6-phosphate synthase gene (TPS1) was up regulated in response to HS and trehalose content also increased.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

In 1996, the government of India decided to provide a package of reproductive and child health services through the existing family welfare program, adopting a community needs assessment approach (CNAA). To implement this approach, the government abolished its practice of setting contraceptive targets centrally and introduced a decentralized planning strategy whereby health workers assessed the reproductive health needs of women in their respective areas and prepared local plans to meet those needs. They also involved community leaders to promote community participation in the reproductive and child health program. Since 1998, several evaluation studies have assessed the impact of CNAA on the program’s performance and community participation. These studies showed that the performance of the maternal health-care program improved, whereas the functioning of the family planning program initially declined but later recovered. The approach achieved little in boosting community involvement. This project tested a new model of health committee to help stimulate community participation in reproductive and child health activities at the village level. The experiment, described in this report, was conducted in the Hunsur block of the Mysore District in Karnataka for two years. Researchers evaluated the impact in terms of community involvement and utilization of reproductive and child health services.

Recent data suggest that the technical staff’s appraisals of the condition and development of economic activity, inflation and the labor market have been in line with current trends, marked by a decline in demand and the persistence of ample excess productive capacity. A significant projected fall in output materialized in the second quarter, contributing to a decline in inflation below the 3% target and reflected in a significant deterioration of the labor market. A slow recovery in output and employment is expected to continue for the remainder of 2020 and into next year, alongside growing inflation that should remain below the target. The Colombian economy is likely to undergo a significant recession in 2020 (GDP contraction of 7.6%), though this may be less severe than projected in the previous report (-8.5%). Output is expected to have begun a slow recovery in the second half of this year, though it is not projected to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2021 amid significant global uncertainty. The output decline in the first half of 2020 was less severe than anticipated, thanks to an upward revision in first-quarter GDP and a smaller contraction in the second quarter (-15.5%) than had been projected (-16.5%). Available economic indicators suggest an annual decline in GDP in the third quarter of around 9%. No significant acceleration of COVID-19 cases that would imply a tightening of social distancing measures is presumed for the remainder of this year or in 2021. In that context, a gradual opening of the economy would be expected to continue, with supply in sectors that have been most affected by the pandemic recovering slowly as restrictions on economic activity continue to be relaxed. On the spending side, an improvement in consumer confidence, suppressed demand for goods and services, low interest rates, and higher expected levels of foreign demand should contribute to a recovery in output. A low base of comparison would also help explain the expected increase in GDP in 2021. Based on the conditions laid out above, economic growth in 2020 is expected to be between -9% and -6.5%, with a central value of -7.6%. Growth in 2021 is projected to be between 3% and 7%, with a central value of 4.6% (Graph 1.1). Upward revisions compared to the July report take into account a lower-than-expected fall in first-semester growth and a somewhat faster recovery in the third quarter in some sectors. The forecast intervals for 2020 and 2021 growth tightened somewhat but continue to reflect a high degree of uncertainty over theevolution of the pandemic, the easures required to deal with it, and their effects on global and domestic economic activity.

Macroeconomic summary Economic activity has recovered faster than projected, and output is now expected to return to pre-pandemic levels earlier than anticipated. Economic growth projections for 2021 and 2022 have been revised upward, though significant downward bias remains. (Graph 1.1). Colombia’s economy returned to recovery in the third quarter after significant supply shocks and a third wave of COVID-19 in the second. Negative shocks affecting mobility and output were absent in the third quarter, and some indicators of economic activity suggest that the rate of recovery in demand, primarily in consumption, outpaced estimates from the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) in the context of widely expansive monetary policy. Several factors are expected to continue to contribute to output recovery for the rest of the year and into 2022, including the persistence of favorable international financial conditions, an expected improvement in external demand, and an increase in terms of trade. Increasing vaccination rates, the expectation of higher levels of employment and the consequent effect on household income, improved investment performance (which has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels), and the expected stimulus from monetary policy that would continue to be expansive should also drive economic activity. As a result, output is estimated to have returned to its pre-pandemic level in the third quarter (previously expected in the fourth quarter). Growth is expected to decelerate in 2022, with excess productive capacity projected to close faster than anticipated in the previous report. Given the above, GDP growth projections have been revised upward for 2021 (9.8%, range between 8.4% and 11.2%) and 2022 (4.7%, range between 0.7% and 6.5%). If these estimates are confirmed, output would have grown by 2.3% on average between 2020 and 2022. This figure would be below long-term sustainable growth levels projected prior to the pandemic. The revised growth forecast for 2022 continues to account for a low basis of comparison from this year (reflecting the negative effects of COVID-19 and roadblocks in some parts of the country), and now supposes that estimated consumption levels for the end of 2021 will remain relatively stable in 2022. Investment and net exports are expected to recover at a faster pace than estimated in the previous report. Nevertheless, the downward risks to these estimates remain unusually significant, for several reasons. First, they do not suppose significant negative effects on the economy from possible new waves of COVID-19. Second, because private consumption, which has already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could perform less favorably than estimated in this forecast should it reflect a temporary phenomenon related to suppressed demand as service sectors re-open (e.g. tourism) and private savings accumulated during the pandemic are spent. Third, disruptions to supply chains could be more persistent than contemplated in this report and could continue to affect production costs, with a negative impact on the economy. Finally, the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances could translate to increased vulnerability to changes in international financial conditions or in international and domestic economic agents’ perception of risk in the Colombian economy, representing a downward risk to growth. A higher-than-expected increase in inflation, the persistence of supply shocks, and reduced excess productive capacity have led to an increase in inflation projections above the target on the forecast horizon (Graph 1.2). Inflation increased above expectations to 4.51% in the third quarter, due in large part to the price behavior of foods and regulated items, and to a lesser extent to core inflation. Increased international prices and costs continue to generate upward pressure on various sub-baskets of the consumer price index (CPI), as has the partial reversion of some price relief measures implemented in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.