Добірка наукової літератури з теми "Recent past and future sea-level changes"

Abstract Global sea level rise due to the thermal expansion of the warming oceans and freshwater input from melting glaciers and ice sheets is threatening to inundate low-lying islands and coastlines worldwide. At present the global mean sea level rises at 3.1 ± 0.7 mm yr−1 with an accelerating tendency. However, the magnitude of recent decadal sea level trends varies greatly spatially, attaining values of up to 10 mm yr−1 in some areas of the western tropical Pacific. Identifying the causes of recent regional sea level trends and understanding the patterns of future projected sea level change is of crucial importance. Using a wind-forced simplified dynamical ocean model, the study shows that the regional features of recent decadal and multidecadal sea level trends in the tropical Indo-Pacific can be attributed to changes in the prevailing wind regimes. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that within an ensemble of 10 state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models, forced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the next century, wind-induced redistributions of upper-ocean water play a key role in establishing the spatial characteristics of projected regional sea level rise. Wind-related changes in near-surface mass and heat convergence near the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Cook Islands, and French Polynesia oppose—but cannot cancel—the regional signal of global mean sea level rise.

Abstract. The city of Venice and the surrounding lagoonal ecosystem are highly vulnerable to variations in relative sea level. In the past ∼150 years, this was characterized by an average rate of relative sea-level rise of about 2.5 mm/year resulting from the combined contributions of vertical land movement and sea-level rise. This literature review reassesses and synthesizes the progress achieved in quantification, understanding and prediction of the individual contributions to local relative sea level, with a focus on the most recent studies. Subsidence contributed to about half of the historical relative sea-level rise in Venice. The current best estimate of the average rate of sea-level rise during the observational period from 1872 to 2019 based on tide-gauge data after removal of subsidence effects is 1.23 ± 0.13 mm/year. A higher – but more uncertain – rate of sea-level rise is observed for more recent years. Between 1993 and 2019, an average change of about +2.76 ± 1.75 mm/year is estimated from tide-gauge data after removal of subsidence. Unfortunately, satellite altimetry does not provide reliable sea-level data within the Venice Lagoon. Local sea-level changes in Venice closely depend on sea-level variations in the Adriatic Sea, which in turn are linked to sea-level variations in the Mediterranean Sea. Water mass exchange through the Strait of Gibraltar and its drivers currently constitute a source of substantial uncertainty for estimating future deviations of the Mediterranean mean sea-level trend from the global-mean value. Regional atmospheric and oceanic processes will likely contribute significant interannual and interdecadal future variability in Venetian sea level with a magnitude comparable to that observed in the past. On the basis of regional projections of sea-level rise and an understanding of the local and regional processes affecting relative sea-level trends in Venice, the likely range of atmospherically corrected relative sea-level rise in Venice by 2100 ranges between 32 and 62 cm for the RCP2.6 scenario and between 58 and 110 cm for the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. A plausible but unlikely high-end scenario linked to strong ice-sheet melting yields about 180 cm of relative sea-level rise in Venice by 2100. Projections of human-induced vertical land motions are currently not available, but historical evidence demonstrates that they have the potential to produce a significant contribution to the relative sea-level rise in Venice, exacerbating the hazard posed by climatically induced sea-level changes.

In recent decades, the study of sea-level changes as recorded along entire coastlines around the world has been a primary scientific focus in climate change studies; it allows the exploration of past landscape evolution, geomorphological processes, human impact, and system response to develop future perspectives [...]

Abstract. After Totten, Denman Glacier is the largest contributor to sea level rise in East Antarctica. Denman's catchment contains an ice volume equivalent to 1.5 m of global sea level and sits in the Aurora Subglacial Basin (ASB). Geological evidence of this basin's sensitivity to past warm periods, combined with recent observations showing that Denman's ice speed is accelerating and its grounding line is retreating along a retrograde slope, has raised the prospect that its contributions to sea level rise could accelerate. In this study, we produce the first long-term (∼50 years) record of past glacier behaviour (ice flow speed, ice tongue structure and calving) and combine these observations with numerical modelling to explore the likely drivers of its recent change. We find a spatially widespread acceleration of the Denman system since the 1970s across both its grounded (17±4 % acceleration; 1972–2017) and floating portions (36±5 % acceleration; 1972–2017). Our numerical modelling experiments show that a combination of grounding line retreat, ice tongue thinning and the unpinning of Denman's ice tongue from a pinning point following its last major calving event are required to simulate an acceleration comparable with observations. Given its bed topography and the geological evidence that Denman Glacier has retreated substantially in the past, its recent grounding line retreat and ice flow acceleration suggest that it could be poised to make a significant contribution to sea level in the near future.

AbstractMajor variations in sea level have resulted from climatic changes during the Quaternary. In addition, beyond the maximum limit of glaciation, periglacial climates in southern Britain have produced Quaternary deposits which can affect the nature of coastal slopes and their response to marine erosion. Examples are given of cliffs in head (solifluction) deposits which overlie raised shore platforms in Devon. The present styles and distribution of coastal landslide hazards, recorded in recent surveys, are directly related to past Quaternary sea levels and climatic fluctuations. Future trends in relative sea level are a significant factor in the determination of the hazards in the longer term, as there could be changes in the level at which marine erosion is effective. Rankings of the hazards, which should in any case be updated routinely by repeated monitoring of the landslide activity, ought to reflect expected changes in sea level.

The climate changes are necessarily related to the increase of the Earth’s temperature, resulting in a sea level rise. Such continuous events, were taking place with minor and greater intensity, during the alternation of warm and cool periods in the Earth during the Late Quaternary and the Holocene periods. However, a particularly significant awareness has taken place in the scientific community, and consequently in the greater public, in the last decades: that a climatic change will take place soon, or it is on-going, and that therefore it is important to undertake drastic actions. However, such a climatic change has not been recorded yet, and hence the necessary actions are not required, for the time being.

Abstract. Antarctic sea ice plays a critical role in the Earth system, influencing energy, heat and freshwater fluxes, air–sea gas exchange, ice shelf dynamics, ocean circulation, nutrient cycling, marine productivity and global carbon cycling. However, accurate simulation of recent sea-ice changes remains challenging and, therefore, projecting future sea-ice changes and their influence on the global climate system is uncertain. Reconstructing past changes in sea-ice cover can provide additional insights into climate feedbacks within the Earth system at different timescales. This paper is the first of two review papers from the Cycles of Sea Ice Dynamics in the Earth system (C-SIDE) working group. In this first paper, we review marine- and ice core-based sea-ice proxies and reconstructions of sea-ice changes throughout the last glacial–interglacial cycle. Antarctic sea-ice reconstructions rely mainly on diatom fossil assemblages and highly branched isoprenoid (HBI) alkenes in marine sediments, supported by chemical proxies in Antarctic ice cores. Most reconstructions for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) suggest that winter sea ice expanded all around Antarctica and covered almost twice its modern surface extent. In contrast, LGM summer sea ice expanded mainly in the regions off the Weddell and Ross seas. The difference between winter and summer sea ice during the LGM led to a larger seasonal cycle than today. More recent efforts have focused on reconstructing Antarctic sea ice during warm periods, such as the Holocene and the Last Interglacial (LIG), which may serve as an analogue for the future. Notwithstanding regional heterogeneities, existing reconstructions suggest that sea-ice cover increased from the warm mid-Holocene to the colder Late Holocene with pervasive decadal- to millennial-scale variability throughout the Holocene. Studies, supported by proxy modelling experiments, suggest that sea-ice cover was halved during the warmer LIG when global average temperatures were ∼2 ∘C above the pre-industrial (PI). There are limited marine (14) and ice core (4) sea-ice proxy records covering the complete 130 000 year (130 ka) last glacial cycle. The glacial–interglacial pattern of sea-ice advance and retreat appears relatively similar in each basin of the Southern Ocean. Rapid retreat of sea ice occurred during Terminations II and I while the expansion of sea ice during the last glaciation appears more gradual especially in ice core data sets. Marine records suggest that the first prominent expansion occurred during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 4 and that sea ice reached maximum extent during MIS 2. We, however, note that additional sea-ice records and transient model simulations are required to better identify the underlying drivers and feedbacks of Antarctic sea-ice changes over the last 130 ka. This understanding is critical to improve future predictions.

Abstract. In this paper we clearly demonstrate that changes in oceanic nutrients are a first order factor in determining changes in the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf on time scales of 5–10 yr. We present a series of coupled hydrodynamic ecosystem modelling simulations, using the POLCOMS-ERSEM system. These are forced by both re-analysis data and a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OA-GCM) representative of possible conditions in 2080–2100 under an SRES A1B emissions scenario, along with the corresponding present day control. The OA-GCM forced simulations show a substantial reduction in surface nutrients in the open-ocean regions of the model domain, comparing future and present day time-slices. This arises from a large increase in oceanic stratification. Tracer transport experiments identify a substantial fraction of on-shelf water originates from the open-ocean region in the south of the domain, where this increase is largest, and indeed the on-shelf nutrient and primary production are reduced as this water is transported on shelf. This relationship is confirmed quantitatively by comparing changes in winter nitrate with total annual nitrate uptake. The reduction in primary production by the reduced nutrient transport is mitigated by on-shelf processes relating to temperature, stratification (length of growing season) and recycling. Regions less exposed to ocean-shelf exchange in this model (Celtic Sea, Irish Sea, English Channel, and southern North Sea) show a modest increase in primary production (of 5–10 %) compared with a decrease of 0–20 % in the outer shelf, central and northern North Sea. These findings are backed up by a boundary condition perturbation experiment and a simple mixing model.

It is still an open question, which processes lead to the spatiotemporal specifications of observed near-surface temperature changes over recent decades. Here, we contribute to this debate by investigating a large number of theory-based atmospheric fields referring to the radiation and energy budget and to atmospheric dynamics that may serve as predictors for local temperature changes. The predictors are linked to temperature trends from reanalysis and climate model data, using a sophisticated spatial and temporal statistical model. Temperature changes since the mid-20th century exhibit distinct regional and seasonal differences. After 1990, the near-surface warming rate is more enhanced over landmasses rather than oceans and roughly increases with latitude in both hemispheres. While none of the considered predictors solitarily accounts for the spatial heterogeneity of recent temperature trends, their linear combination largely reproduces the observed cooling pattern during the mid-20th century and the enhanced warming pattern after 1990. This excludes high-altitude areas, sea ice margins and upwelling regions where local feedbacks and nonlinear processes prevail. The leading predictors pertain to radiative processes, especially downward longwave radiation, and changes in sensible heat fluxes. In the low latitudes, dynamical processes such as temperature advection and energy flux divergence also play a role. Until the end of the 21st century, the warming rate and its ocean-land contrast steadily increase. The underlying mechanisms are the same as the ones already established in present-day climate, but near-surface temperature follows more straightly the imposed greenhouse gas scenario. Climate models have different skills in reproducing the observed trend pattern but exhibit more or less the same mechanisms of temperature control.

Abstract. Ocean-driven ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a significant contributor to sea-level rise. Recent ocean variability in the Amundsen Sea is controlled by near-surface winds. We combine palaeoclimate reconstructions and climate model simulations to understand past and future influences on Amundsen Sea winds from anthropogenic forcing and internal climate variability. The reconstructions show strong historical wind trends. External forcing from greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone depletion drove zonally uniform westerly wind trends centred over the deep Southern Ocean. Internally generated trends resemble a South Pacific Rossby wave train and were highly influential over the Amundsen Sea continental shelf. There was strong interannual and interdecadal variability over the Amundsen Sea, with periods of anticyclonic wind anomalies in the 1940s and 1990s, when rapid ice-sheet loss was initiated. Similar anticyclonic anomalies probably occurred prior to the 20th century but without causing the present ice loss. This suggests that ice loss may have been triggered naturally in the 1940s but failed to recover subsequently due to the increasing importance of anthropogenic forcing from greenhouse gases (since the 1960s) and ozone depletion (since the 1980s). Future projections also feature strong wind trends. Emissions mitigation influences wind trends over the deep Southern Ocean but has less influence on winds over the Amundsen Sea shelf, where internal variability creates a large and irreducible uncertainty. This suggests that strong emissions mitigation is needed to minimise ice loss this century but that the uncontrollable future influence of internal climate variability could be equally important.

Among the various adverse effects of climate change, sea-level rise is expected to increase the severity and frequency of flooding events impacting the vulnerable, low-lying islands of French Polynesia. It has long been understood that sea-level changes are not spatially uniform, yet this aspect is not taken into account in the decision-making. Notably, no projections of future sea level have been produced specifically for this region so far, partly because the processes driving sea-level changes remain poorly constrained. To approach the issue, we present a detailed reconstruction of sea-level changes for the mid-to-late Holocene, based on the observation of coral proxies. This dataset is then used to calibrate a sea-level model in order to estimate the contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment to regional sea-level changes and to infer past variations in global ice volume. Building upon this baseline and exploiting recent outputs of climate models, we project that in a “worst-case” scenario, sea level would rise 1.05 meters by 2100 in French Polynesia, exceeding the value adopted in the French adaptation strategy by 0.45 meters. We conclude that spatial variability of sea-level rise should be considered in future risk studies for this and other regions.

This thesis introduces new relative sea level datasets from the Forth and Tay Estuaries dating between 1900 and 2010 and uses these to analyse sea level oscillations, surge components and to influence future sea level projections. Prior to this research, relative sea levels had not been analysed across this region. These datasets were collated and corrected using renowned methods and investigated using Shennan et al.’s (2012) GIA corrections, Torrence and Compo’s (1998) Morlet wavelet transform and Graff’s (1981) sea level maxima analysis. The relative sea level data were then used to support adaptations of two sea level projection models to 2100; the UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) probabilistic model and Vermeer and Rahmstorf’s (2009) temperature-sea level relationship projections model. These models were, in turn, used to project the impact of extreme relative sea levels on local infrastructure by 2100. This research revealed that relative sea level in the Forth and Tay Estuaries between 1900 and 2010 rose at a rate of 0.27 to 0.56 mm a-1, which is smaller than the global average of 1.7 mm a-1 (Church and White, 2011). Tidal residuals were commonly observed to be approximately 0.4 and 0.7 m at Leith and Dundee between 2003 and 2010, whilst the highest sea level maxima across 5 ports in the region ranged between 3.27 and 4.13 m above OD. Adaptions of the UKCP09 model reduced the original projections for 2100 of between 31.3 and 35.1 cm to between 24.3 and 27.5 cm above the 1990 mean. Similarly, adaptions of the Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009) model reduced projections from 107.5 cm to between 50.9 and 54.2 cm above the 1990 mean. These adapted projections, when added to the extreme 2100 sea level calculations, suggests that the highest extreme sea level by 2100 could reach the present day quayside heights at selected locations in the Forth and Tay Estuaries. The approach and results are replicable across other regions, thereby refining projections made by previous authors.

This work is focused on the analysis of sea–level change (last century), based mainly on instrumental observations. During this period, individual components of sea–level change are investigated, both at global and regional scales. Some of the geophysical processes responsible for current sea-level change such as glacial isostatic adjustments and current melting terrestrial ice sources, have been modeled and compared with observations. A new value of global mean sea level change based of tide gauges observations has been independently assessed in 1.5 mm/year, using corrections for glacial isostatic adjustment obtained with different models as a criterion for the tide gauge selection. The long wavelength spatial variability of the main components of sea–level change has been investigated by means of traditional and new spectral methods. Complex non–linear trends and abrupt sea–level variations shown by tide gauges records have been addressed applying different approaches to regional case studies. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition technique has been used to analyse tide gauges records from the Adriatic Sea to ascertain the existence of cyclic sea-level variations. An Early Warning approach have been adopted to detect tipping points in sea–level records of North East Pacific and their relationship with oceanic modes. Global sea–level projections to year 2100 have been obtained by a semi-empirical approach based on the artificial neural network method. In addition, a model-based approach has been applied to the case of the Mediterranean Sea, obtaining sea-level projection to year 2050.

Tides propagate through the oceans as shallow water waves and are therefore sensitive to changes in water depth and areal extent of the ocean. In this thesis the impacts of climatologically driven sea-level changes and the resulting changes in ocean extent on the global tidal dynamics are investigated. The large global sea-level adjustments between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 18,000-21,000 years BP) and the present are considered; the present day tidal changes are analysed and the impact of future collapses of the West Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets on the tides are investigated using a global tidal model. The 130 m glacio-eustatic sea-level drop during the LGM had a profound impact on the principal semi-diurnal tide, doubling global dissipation rates and resulting in 'megatides' in the North Atlantic region. It is shown that the magnitude of the Atlantic tides is sensitive to the grounding line location of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Next, the impacts of the altered dissipation for LGM ocean mixing and the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the glacial ocean are explored using an intermediate complexity climate model. The importance of tidal mixing for the global ocean circulation is highlighted. Strong LGM tidal mixing could have provided a mechanism for sustaining a vigorous LGM MOC. During the deglacial period glacioeustatic sea-level rose rapidly and large adjustments of the global tides occurred into the early Holocene. In the late Holocene sea-level adjustments were small and tidal dynamics remained fairly constant over this period. Tide-gauge records covering the past decades show global changes in tidal amplitudes occurring in parallel with largescale sea-level changes which have been attributed to global warming. Using simulations forced with observed sea-level trends an attempt is made to reproduce the large-scale change patterns. For M2 the patterns agree well, but for K1 the model is unable to reproduce the trends, possibly due to the small magnitude of the K1 trends. A number of recent studies have highlighted an accelerated ice loss from the ice streams draining the West Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheet together with widespread grounding line retreats in West Antarctica. It has been suggested that both ice sheets could undergo collapses under certain climate warming scenarios leading to increases in global mean sea-level of 5 m and 7 m, respectively. It is shown that the collapse of a polar ice sheet would lead to large changes in tidal dynamics and thus changes in sea-level variability. These changes have further reaching consequences for shelf-sea dynamics, ecosystems, and open ocean tidal mixing.

Thesis (Ph.D.) - University of Glasgow, 2006.
Ph.D. thesis submitted to the Department of Geographical and Earth Sciences, University of Glasgow, 2006. Includes bibliographical references. Print version also available.

Observations of sea-level changes in the 20th century show a rise of 1 to 2 mm year−1, with accelerating rates in recent decades (IPCC, 2001, 2007b). Contributions to these changes include thermal expansion, recent melting of ice masses (Antarctica, Greenland, and mountain glaciers), and changes in terrestrial water storage. To quantify the contribution from recent mountain deglaciation, a global numerical model based on climate parameters is developed, incorporating seasonal variations in ice volume of 100 glaciated regions. The estimated melt-water from mountain glaciers contributed between 0.25 and 0.43 mm year−1 to global sea-level rise over the period 1961-1990, and between 0.47 and 0.58 mm year−1 over 1991-2000. This is consistent with directly observed ice-volume changes. Thus, confident predictions for future changes can be made using the same numerical model. It is predicted that mountain glaciers will contribute ~1.5 mm year−1 on average over the remainder of this century. As well as the volumetric effect of the melt-water, local sea level is affected by the deflection of the crust and geoid in response to the change in surface load. Relative sea-level is predicted to rise on most of the worlds coastlines, but at sites located close to the melting glaciers sea-level is predicted to fall at a rate that reaches several times the average value, and estimates of geodetic signals are therefore strongly dependent on the region under investigation. The distinctive geographical pattern of the changes due to mountain deglaciation is dependent on a number of other factors which have also been addressed in this study. These include both the total and regional ice-volume loss of glaciers, the spatial representation of the glaciated areas, and the Earth models used. As the predicted geodetic signals at sites located close to large-scale glacier systems are of a magnitude that can be observed with geodetic techniques, these methods can provide additional constraints on the ice-volume loss of mountain glaciers.

Throughout the Holocene, appreciable changes in bathymetry are hypothesized to have resulted in large changes to tidal datums in coastal and estuarine areas. An understanding of tidal change is an important contribution to the knowledge of relative historical sea-level change and future coastal planning. To test this hypothesis, the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model was used, with representative bathymetric grids based on glacial isostatic adjustment models and semi-empirical sea level rise predictions, in order to model the time-varying tidal behavior of the Delaware Bay. Model runs were conducted at various time slices between 10,000 years before present and 300 years into the future on high resolution grids that allowed for inundation moving forward in time. Open boundary tidal forcing was held constant in time to highlight the effect of the changing regional bathymetry. With each change in sea level, the shape of the Delaware Bay was considerably altered, leading to changes in the tides. Resonance and shallow water dissipation appeared to be the primary mechanisms behind these changes. Results showed that tidal ranges have nearly doubled in the upper Delaware Bay over the past 3000 years, while decreasing in the lower bay by 8%. Tidal range change represents a possible correction to past sea level rise estimates from the geologic record. Scenarios incorporating future sea level predictions primarily showed a small decrease in tidal range, potentially impacting future water levels and tidal sediment transport. Trends modeled were consistent with field measurements of relative change over similar time periods.
Graduation date: 2012

This chapter considers how dynamic brain states continuously fine-tune processing to accommodate changes in behavioural context and task goals. First, the authors review the extant literature suggesting that content-specific patterns of preparatory activity bias competitive processing in visual cortex to favour behaviourally relevant input. Next, they consider how higher-level brain areas might provide a top-down attentional signal for modulating baseline visual activity. Extensive evidence suggests that working memory representations in prefrontal cortex are especially important for generating and maintaining biases in preparatory visual activity via modulatory feedback. Although it is often proposed that such working memory representations are maintained via persistent prefrontal activity, the authors review more recent evidence that rapid short-term synaptic plasticity provides a common substrate for maintaining the content of past experience and the rules for guiding future goal-directed processing.

The worldwide landscape of merger and acquisition (M&A) activity has changed dramatically in the past decade. Acquirers, acquisition trends, and the strategies behind those transactions now differ dramatically. Acquisition success rates also appear to be different, with recent research indicating that international acquisitions are more successful than they were previously. Successful acquiring is a complicated combination of melding systems and employees in an environment of cultural contrasts. Successful acquisitions on an international level require financial rigor and discipline combined with an understanding of human behavior and motivation. This chapter examines both the changing trends and the key success factors for M&As in terms of financial inputs and behavioral elements to better understand the complex M&A process and indicators for future success.

The aim of the study was to determine the influence of different disturbances (both natural and anthropogenic) on species composition and stand structure of old-growth mixed mountain forests in the Western Carpathians. These stands are usually dominated by beech, fir and spruce, mixed in different proportions. The tree main species represent different growth strategies, and they compete against each other. The longevity of trees makes the factors influencing the stand structure difficult to identify, even during longitudinal studies conducted on permanent research plots. That is why dendroecological techniques, based upon the annual variability of tree rings, are commonly used to analyze the disturbance histories of old-growth stands. Dendroecological methods make it possible to reconstruct the stand history over several centuries in the past by analyzing the frequency, intensity, duration and spatial scale of disturbances causing the death of trees. Combining the dendroecological techniques with the detailed measurements of stand structure, snag volume, CWD volume, and the analyses of regeneration species composition and structure allows us to identify the factors responsible for the changes in dynamics of mixed mountain forests. Various disturbance agents affect some species selectively, while some disturbances promote the establishment of tree seedlings of specific species by modifying environmental conditions. Describing the disturbance regime requires a broad scope of data on stand structure, on dead wood and tree regeneration, while various factors affecting all the stages of tree growth should be taken into consideration. On the basis of the already published data from permanent sample plots, combined with the available disturbance history analyses from the Western Carpathians, three research hypotheses were formulated. 1. The species composition of mixed mountain forests has been changing for at least several decades. These directional changes are the consequence of simultaneous conifer species decline and expansion of beech. 2. The observed changes in species composition of mixed mountain forests are the effect of indirect anthropogenic influences, significantly changing tree growth conditions also in the forests that are usually considered natural or near-natural. Cumulative impact of these indirect influences leads to the decrease of fir share in the tree layer (spruce decline has also been observed recently),and it limits the representation of this species among seedlings and saplings. The final effect is the decrease of fir and spruce share in the forest stands. 3. Small disturbances, killing single trees or small groups of trees, and infrequent disturbances of medium size and intensity dominate the disturbance regime in mixed mountain forests. The present structure of beech-fir-spruce forests is shaped both by complex disturbance regime and indirect anthropogenic influences. The data were gathered in permanent sample plots in strictly protected areas of Babia Góra, Gorce, and Tatra National Parks, situated in the Western Carpathians. All plots were located in the old-growth forest stands representing Carpathian beech forest community. The results of the measurements of trees, snags, coarse woody debris (CWD) and tree regeneration were used for detailed description of changes in the species composition and structure of tree stands. Tree ring widths derived from increment cores were used to reconstruct the historical changes in tree growth trends of all main tree species, as well as the stand disturbance history within the past two to three hundred years. The analyses revealed complex disturbance history in all of the three forest stands. Intermediate disturbances of variable intensity occurred, frequently separated by the periods of low tree mortality lasting from several decades up to over one hundred years. The intervals between the disturbances were significantly shorter than the expected length of forest developmental cycle, in commonly used theories describing the dynamics of old-growth stands. During intermediate disturbances up to several dozen percent of canopy trees were killed. There were no signs of stand-replacing disturbances, killing all or nearly all of canopy trees. The periods of intense tree mortality were followed by subsequent periods of increased sapling recruitment. Variability in disturbance intensity is one of the mechanisms promoting the coexistence of beech and conifer species in mixed forests. The recruitment of conifer saplings depended on the presence of larger gaps, resulting from intermediate disturbances, while beech was more successful in the periods of low mortality. However, in the last few decades, beech seems to benefit from the period of intense fir mortality. This change results from the influence of long-term anthropogenic disturbances, affecting natural mechanisms that maintain the coexistence of different tree species and change natural disturbance regimes. Indirect anthropogenic influence on tree growth was clearly visible in the gradual decrease of fir increments in the twentieth century, resulting from the high level of air pollution in Europe. Synchronous decreases of fir tree rings’ widths were observed in all three of the sample plots, but the final outcomes depended on the fir age. In most cases, the damage to the foliage limited the competitive abilities of fir, but it did not cause a widespread increase in tree mortality, except for the oldest firs in the BGNP (Babia Góra National Park) plot. BGNP is located in the proximity of industrial agglomeration of Upper Silesia, and it could be exposed to higher level of air pollution than the other two plots. High level of fir regeneration browsing due to the deer overabundance and insufficient number of predators is the second clear indication of the indirect anthropogenic influence on mixed mountain forests. Game impact on fir regeneration is the most pronounced in Babia Góra forests, where fir was almost completely eliminated from the saplings. Deer browsing seems to be the main factor responsible for limiting the number of fir saplings and young fir trees, while the representation of fir among seedlings is high. The experiments conducted in fenced plots located in the mixed forests in BGNP proved that fir and sycamore were the most preferred by deer species among seedlings and saplings. In GNP (Gorce National Park) and TNP (Tatra National Park), the changes in species composition of tree regeneration are similar, but single firs or even small groups of firs are present among saplings. It seems that all of the analysed mixed beech-fir-spruce forests undergo directional changes, causing a systematic decrease in fir representation, and the expansion of beech. This tendency results from the indirect anthropogenic impact, past and present. Fir regeneration decline, alongside with the high level of spruce trees’ mortality in recent years, may lead to a significant decrease in conifers representation in the near future, and to the expansion of beech forests at the cost of mixed ones.

AbstractThe knowledge of sea level in harbours is very important to manage port activities (safety of navigation, prevention of ship stranding, optimization of vessel loading, water quality control). In this article we describe the use of a software tool developed to help local authorities and working organizations to optimize navigation and avoid or manage hazardous situations due to sea level changes in port basins. This prototype application, starting from reading data coming from a monitoring station in La Spezia harbour (in North Western Italy), updates dynamically the port bathymetry based on sea level oscillations (measured in the past or real-time, or expected in the near future). Then, it detects potentially dangerous areas for a given ship moving in the basin at a certain time, by means of the idea of “virtual traffic lights”: sea level variations are provided as parameters to the application that performs the updating of the bathymetric map and the subdivision of the harbour in allowed (green)/warning (yellow)/prohibited (red) areas for each ship, based on its draft. The tool can provide a useful support interface to competent authorities to avoid or manage critical situations by detecting hazardous areas for a given vessel at a given time.

AbstractSpread over the ocean regions of the Caribbean, the Pacific and Atlantic, the Indian Ocean, the Mediterranean, and the South China Sea, the small island developing states (SIDS) are a distinct group of developing countries often known for their rich biological diversity, oceans, tourism, and fisheries. The pressures on these and other natural resources is most immediate in the islands where the high vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, limited land and water resources, often unsustainable natural resource use, and other particular economic vulnerabilities are disrupting livelihoods. The COVID-19 pandemic has further exacerbated the SIDS economies and livelihoods. Over the past 25 years the Global Environment Facility (GEF) has supported interventions in SIDS through $578 million in financing, in critical areas such as biodiversity protection, climate resilience, and energy access through renewable energy. But how effective and sustainable have these interventions been? What factors influencing the sustainability of GEF interventions can provide insights for future project design and implementation? This chapter draws on findings from a recent country cluster evaluation on SIDS conducted by the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) of the GEF. It presents the main environmental challenges in SIDS, the evidence on the relevance and effectiveness of GEF interventions in addressing these challenges, and the main risks to sustainability of outcomes. Important contextual factors that affect sustainability in SIDS include good policies and legal and regulatory frameworks, national ownership of projects, environmental awareness, institutional capacity, and strategic institutional partnerships. Project-related factors including good project design and adaptive project management, scaling-up and replication based on lessons learned, and a good exit strategy are also important for sustainability.

AbstractThe appropriateness of planning programmes in the Global South, heavily influenced by their colonial pasts and the content developed and taught in universities of the Global North, has been widely questioned. In recent years, contemporary urban challenges, as also highlightedNational Institute of Urban Affairs by the New Urban Agenda, demand that planning education step up and be a core lever of urban transformation. Grappling with legacies from the colonial past on one hand, and looking towards achieving sustainable change in future, where does planning education in post-colonial contexts currently stand? Taking seriously the intent of the programmes, this paper asks two interrelated questions of ten Master’s level planning programmes across Africa and Asia: Who is the programme intended for, and to what end? What are the various forms of knowledge the programme intends to impart, and how? This comparative, qualitative review of planning programmes from across the two regions highlights the similarities and variations in how planning and its education are viewed and approached by different institutions. With the planning discipline currently in a state of flux in post-colonial contexts, this discussion presents an opportunity for learning and innovation through South-South exchanges and partnerships—a critical, yet under-explored area for collaboration when compared with existing North–South knowledge exchange partnerships.

AbstractThe mapping of artificial covers at a global scale has received increasing attention in recent years. Numerous thematic global Land Use Cover (LUC) datasets focusing on artificial surfaces have been produced at increasingly high spatial resolutions and using methods that ensure improved levels of accuracy. In fact, there are several long time series of maps showing the evolution of artificial surfaces from the 1980s to the present. Most of them allow for change detection over time, which is possible, thanks to the high level of accuracy at which artificial surfaces can be mapped and because transitions from artificial to non-artificial covers are very rare. Global thematic LUC datasets characterizing artificial covers usually map the extent or percentage of artificial or urban areas across the world. They do not provide thematic detail on the different uses or covers that make up artificial or urban surfaces. Unlike other general or thematic LUC datasets, those focusing on artificial covers make extensive use of radar data. In several cases, optical and radar imagery have been used together, as each source provides complementary information. Global Urban Expansion 1992–2016 and ISA, which were produced at a spatial resolution of 1 km, are the coarsest of the nine datasets reviewed in this chapter. ISA provides information on the percentage of impervious surface area per pixel. The GHSL edition of 2014 and the GMIS at 30 m also provide sub-pixel information, whereas all the other datasets reviewed here only map the extent of artificial/impervious/urban areas. Most of the datasets reviewed in this chapter were produced at a spatial resolution of 30 m. This is due to the extensive use of Landsat imagery in the production of these datasets. Landsat provides a long, high-resolution series of satellite imagery that enables effective mapping of the evolution of impervious surfaces at detailed scales. Of the datasets produced at 30 m, Global Urban Land maps artificial covers for seven different dates between 1980 and 2015, while GHSL does the same for five different dates between 1987 and 2016, although the map for the last date was produced at 20 m. GUB maps the extent of urban land for seven dates between 1990 and 2018 and was produced together with GAIA, which provides an annual series of maps for the period 1985–2018. HBASE, GMIS and GISM, also at 30 m, are only available for one reference year. The same is true of GUF and WSF, which were produced as part of the same effort to map global artificial surfaces as accurately as possible. They provide the most detailed datasets up to date, with spatial resolutions of 12 m (GUF) and 10 m (WSF). Future updates of WSF will produce a consistent time series of global LC maps of artificial areas from the 1980s to the present. It aims to be the longest, most detailed, most accurate dataset ever produced on this subject.

Short Sea Shipping remains a topic of interest in various nations with long coastlines, both as a means to offload road and rail, and to potentially reduce both harmful emissions and costs. Short Sea Shipping concepts have included both automated options and conventional ones using crewed vehicles and ships. However, vehicle technologies have advanced significantly over the last decade, particularly in the fields of electrical propulsion and automation, the later ranging from simple features such cruise control, to more complex ones such as automated parking. Increasing electrification as a vehicle standard also enables innovative technologies such as mechanum wheels. Combined, these automotive technologies may allow Short Sea Shipping automation without the extensive infrastructure changes implied by studies in the first decade of this century. This paper describes ongoing research at UCL, examining the impacts of these increasingly widespread technologies on Short Sea Shipping. This topic has been investigated via; post-graduate group ship design projects; individual student research projects; and “exemplar” designs examining specific aspects. The paper will begin with a review of some past Short Sea Shipping concepts, before turning to how automation and vehicle technology have developed in recent years. The methods and findings of two student projects using simulation tools to investigate automation both in the port and the ship will be described. The paper will also describe an example design for a novel Ro-Ro cargo ship using a combination of transverse and vertical cargo loading, using smaller holds rather than the long, open vehicle decks on current Ro-Ro vessels.

This paper explains in a de-westernized sense (Gunaratne, 2010) how internet-mediated communication changes the way we deal with and plan time both individually and culturally in Germany and China. Therefore, it blends Western and Eastern culture and media theories. The paper focuses on two distinct phenomena: temporal change due to social media, and Online journalism, as the core of Internet-mediated communication (for Germany 39% communication, media use 24% Projektgruppe ARD/ZDF-Multimedia, 2016; for China 90.7% instant messaging, 82% Internet news China Internet Network Information Center, 2017), with other temporal change via smart devices touched upon (Ash, 2018). General research on time in post modern societies, recently more focused on media’s temporal change phenomena (e.g. Barker, 2012; Barker, 2018; Castells, 2010; Eriksen, 2001; Hartmann, 2016; Hassan, 2003; Innis, 2004; Neverla, 2010a, 2010b; Nowotny, 1995; Rantanen, 2005; Wajcman, 2010; Wajcman and Dodd) has not yet linked the different societal and cultural levels of temporal change. Thus, we suggest the following to fill this research gap: For a micro perspective the notions of network theories (e.g. Granovetter, 1973; Schönhuth, 2013), media synchronicity (Dennis, Fuller, and Valacich, 2008) and the idea of permanent connectivity (Sonnentag, Reinecke, Mata, and Vorderer, 2018; van Dijck, 2013; Vorderer, Krömer, and Schneider, 2016) are linked. On a meso level, institutional change in Online journalism with a focus on acceleration is modeled (Ananny, 2016; Bødker and Sonnevend, 2017; Dimmick, Feaster, and Hoplamazian, 2011; Krüger, 2014; Neuberger, 2010). On a macro level, mediatization theory (Couldry and Hepp, 2017; Krotz, 2001, 2012) and recent acceleration theory (Rosa, 2005, 2012, 2017) is discussed. The levels are systematically linked suggesting a micro-meso-macro-link (Quandt, 2010) to then ask if and how many of the dimensions of the construct temporal understanding (Faust, 2016) can be changed through Internet-mediated communication. Temporal understanding consists of nine dimensions: General past, general future, instrumental experience (monochronicity), fatalism, interacting experience (polychronicity), pace of life, future as planned expectation and result of proximal goals as well as future as trust based interacting expectation and result of present positive behavior. Temporal understanding integrates the anthropological construct of polychronicity (Bluedorn, Kalliath, Strube, and Martin, 1999; Hall, 1984; Lindquist and Kaufman-Scarborough, 2007), pace of life (Levine, 1998) and temporal horizon (Klapproth, 2011) into a broader framework which goes beyond Western biased constructs through the theory driven incorporation of Confucian notions (Chinese Culture Connection, 1987). Finally, meta trends are laid out.

This paper provides an overview of the current status of radioactive waste management in the UK from the point of view of Nirex, the organisation responsible for providing safe, environmentally sound and publicly acceptable options for the long-term management of radioactive materials. Essentially, it argues that: • the waste exists and must be dealt with in an ethical manner; • legitimacy is the key to public acceptance of any attempt to solve the waste issue; and • credible options and a new political will allow, and indeed, compel this generation to deal with it. In doing this, the paper takes account of a number of recent announcements and ongoing developments in the UK nuclear industry, in particular: • the recent announcement that Nirex is to be made independent of industry; • the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and Devolved Administrations’ Managing Radioactive Waste Safely consultation exercise; • the creation of the Committee on Radioactive Waste Management to oversee the consultation; • the creation of the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority to manage the civil nuclear site clean-up programme; • proposals for improved regulation of Intermediate Level Waste conditioning and packaging; and • proposals by the European Commission for a new radioactive waste Directive. These institutional and policy changes amount to an evolution of the back-end of the fuel cycle that represents the most radical transformation in the UK nuclear industry for many years. In a large part, this is a transformation made necessary by past failures in trying to impose a solution on the general public. Therefore, in order for these changes to result in a successful long-term radioactive waste management programme, it is necessary to pay as much attention to political and social concerns as scientific and technical ones. Primarily it is crucial that all parties involved act in an open and transparent manner so that the decisions made achieve a high degree of legitimacy and thus public acceptance. Crucially too, the problem must be framed in the correct term — that the waste exists irrespective of the future of nuclear power and that this is an issue that must be addressed now. Thus there is a legitimacy of purpose and scope in moving forward that addresses the ethical imperative of this generation dealing with the waste. Put together with the action the government is taking to create the necessary institutional framework, Nirex believes that for the first time in a generation the UK has the building blocks in place to find a publicly acceptable, long-term solution for radioactive waste.

Urbanization provokes major modifications to the natural landscape. As the urban population reaches 60% of the world's population by 2030, this constant development, neglecting the planning and design of open spaces, negatively affects microclimate. This leads to local climate change, urban heat islands, and outdoor thermal discomfort. This paper is based on the recent studies of urban morphology and vegetation parameters affecting urban microclimate and outdoor thermal comfort in warm, humid cities in the past decade. Results revealed that three factors are of paramount importance and affect the thermal comfort level; urban space morphology, the orientation of elements and spaces, and vegetation. Therefore, Scenario developments for micrometeorological simulations should be processed considering the identified parameters of urban morphology and vegetation which are further categorized as parameters of geometry, density, configuration, and the physical properties of plants. However, the Configuration of urban vegetation that affects the thermal comfort of urban spaces has not received adequate attention in previous research yet. Thus, future research is needed considering the planting patterns, arrangement of various species, and planting orientations with prevailing wind conditions. By the end of this review, a theoretical framework is suggested as an approach to assess the impact of urban vegetation and morphology parameters on outdoor thermal comfort in warm, humid climates. The framework guides further research adopting more specific and comprehensive approaches of urban vegetation configuration with reference to specific urban morphologies to improve the local microclimate of cities, where the space for planting is critical. Keywords: urban vegetation, urban morphology, vegetation configuration, outdoor thermal comfort, warm humid cities, Climate change

The complex nature of the energy industry across extraction, transportation, processing, delivery and decommissioning creates significant challenges to how the sector responds, adapts and mitigates against risks posed by the changing future climate. Any disruption in this interconnected system will affect both industry and society. For example, in the summer of 2005 Hurricane Katrina and a month later Hurricane Rita had wide reaching impacts on the US offshore Oil and Gas industry which resulted in an increase in global oil prices due to loss of production and refinery shutdowns in the Gulf of Mexico. Preparing, mitigating and adapting to these climate changes is dependent upon identifying appropriate climate indicators as well as the associated critical operational thresholds and design criteria of the identified vulnerable assets. The characterization and understanding of the likely changes in these climate indicators will form the basis for adaptation plans and mitigating actions. The Met Office in collaboration with energy industry partners, under the Copernicus Clim4energy European project, has developed a Climate Change Risk Assessment tool, which allows the visualization and extraction of the most recent sea level and wave climate information to evaluate their future changes. This study illustrates the application of this tool for evaluation of the potential vulnerability of an offshore infrastructure in the North Sea. The analysis shows that for this asset there is a small increase in sea level of 0.20–0.30 m at the location of interest by 2050. However, there is a small decrease or no consistent changes projected in the future wave climate. This wave signal is small compared to the uncertainty of the wave projections and the associated inter-annual variability. Therefore, for the 2050s time horizon, at the location of interest, there is no strong impact of climate change at the annual scale on the significant wave height, the sea level and thus the associated climate change driven extreme water level. However, further analysis are required at the seasonal and monthly scales.

Abstract The world has undergone a huge change in the past two years with millions of people working from home, as offices temporarily closed. Home working, virtual meetings, virtual teams, and virtual management are expected to continue in the future, as workers embrace both the challenges and advantages of this ‘new world’. The rapid adoption of digital technologies has transformed the workplace and business, and all aspects of business must adapt to this transformation, including learning and development. This is not a simple switch — current learning and development strategies are still mainly based on in-person training courses, or a management’s view of needs, which is usually based on past experience. As business processes and practices change, and they have changed fundamentally in the past two years, the way of learning has to change, which means an urgent switch to on-line, as already witnessed in schools and universities. Staff in the pipeline industry particularly need continuous learning and development, as pipeline standards and regulations specifically require staff to be both competent and qualified in the tasks they perform. Indeed, the American Petroleum Institute’s recommended practice API 1173 states: ‘The pipeline operator shall ensure that personnel... have an appropriate level of competence in terms of education, training, knowledge, and experience.’. Competence, education, training, knowledge, and experience are clearly pre-requisites for pipeline staff, but now these requirements need to be delivered in an increasingly virtual world. The good news is that both on-line learning and virtual competence development are available for pipeline staff, and this paper presents a complete competency development model and process in pipeline integrity engineering, that can be delivered virtually, on-demand. The model has been tested in pipeline operators, and is both independently certified and accredited. It is a ‘world’s first’, and available now. The paper outlines the virtual competency development model in pipeline integrity engineering, with its detail being in previous papers at IPC 2016, 2018, and 2020. The paper focuses on: the model’s recent certification (by the certification body, CERTivation) and accreditation (by the American National Standards Institute’s National Accreditation Board (ANAB)); the new learning guides needed to assist staff in the learning process; and, the new competency assessment procedures that have been developed to show that staff completing the process have reached a high standard. These assessment procedures are reported, and involve examinations, designed by subject matter experts, assessed using methods such as the Angoff method, and audited by psychometricians. Assessment can be by on-line ‘proctoring’ (supervision by both an individual and software to ensure a secure and reliable outcome) at any time or location. The paper also introduces a learning platform that contains learning content needed to meet pipeline engineering competencies. The internet-based learning platform offers e-learns in various formats, allowing bespoke, on-demand learning. This is important as we need to make learning more a part of our day-to-day jobs, and the ‘learning while working’ fits into our new remote world. The learning platform is used by nearly 3000 members, and both their use and their learning preferences are analysed to determine both what the users want and need. Finally, the implementation of the competency development model in pipeline operating companies is summarised, with the operators’ views and conclusions.

Abstract Japan’s major ports must be reorganized as part of the changes in the country’s industrial structure. The Port Management Bodies of the major ports intend to formulate or revise the Port Plan due to these changes. On the other hand, in Japan, the occurrence of large-scale tsunamis or high tide that exceeds H.H.W.L are expected in the future. When port facilities are damaged by these natural disasters and port functions are paralyzed, the logistics base of the bulk cargo (crude oil, iron ore, coal etc.) which is not suitable for transport by land is more likely to suffer damage because the logistics base is located near the port. The logistics base of the bulk cargo (cereals, automobiles, etc.) and the container cargo which are suitable for long-distance transport by land suffers less damage. The reason for such less damage is that the logistics base is generally located a long way from the port. Port logistics can be restored early with non-damaged ports. In recent years, Japan also saw increasing damages caused by rising sea levels and growing scale of typhoons due to the influence of climate change. Today, it is necessary to verify that tsunamis and high tide occur at the same time. The authors points out the importance of the backup ports using the sacrifice model considering the characteristics of such port logistics, and then, the importance of formulating or revising the port plans to reduce disaster damage from overtopping volumes caused by rising sea levels using Takayama’s method and CADMAS-SURF. Finally, the authors propose the importance of formulating or revising the port plans to reduce disaster damage to realize these points and to prepare for large-scale natural disasters.

The Blue Stream pipeline project is a gas transportation system for the delivery of processed gas from a gas station in the southern Russia across the Black Sea to Ankara, Turkey. The Turkish landfall of the offshore pipeline in the Black Sea is located near Samsun, see Figure 1 for the pipeline route. One of the main aspects of the design of pipeline through a morphologically dynamic area such as landfall is the required burial depth (Chen et al, 1998, 2001 and Bijker et al 1995). The burial depth is the result of an optimisation between: • safety of the pipeline (which often requires a large burial depth), and • environmental impact and trenching costs (a small burial depth means less dredging and less environmental impact). This paper presents a method of predicting the future extremely low seabed level in a morphologically dynamic landfall area, which is required to determine the burial depth of the pipeline. Both short term and long term coast evolution were assessed to quantify the expected lowest seabed level along the pipeline route in the landfall area during the pipeline lifetime of 50 years. The results were used to determine the required pipeline burial depth. The long term morphological changes originate from long term variations in the morphological system (e.g. river input), gradient in the longshore sediment transport and long term variations in the hydrodynamic conditions. The short-term morphological changes originate from beach profile variations due to cross-shore sediment transport as a result of seasonal and yearly variations in the wave and current conditions. Numerical modelling was applied to compute the longshore and cross-shore sediment transport rates and the resulting coastline evolution and cross-shore profile evolution. The longshore transport model was validated using the available data on the coastline changes in the past 20 years, which was derived from the satellite images. The 50-year lowest seabed level has been determined as the sum of the coastline retreat and the cross-shore evolution in the next 50 years.

The US gas turbine (GT) power generation market has seen significant volatility in recent years due to climate changes, changes in natural gas prices and the uncertain future of nuclear and coal power generation. Many gas turbine power plants originally intended to operate on a more continuous basis (base load) are operating in intermittent dispatch mode which has caused some operators to frequently shut down their units. This frequent cycling of units can increase start-up and maintenance costs. It could be beneficial to these plants to operate at lower loads when power demand is low and ramp up to higher loads as demand increases. A key issue in operating at lower loads is an increase in carbon monoxide (CO) emissions. When the engines are base loaded, the combustion system operates at high firing temperatures and most of the CO is oxidized to carbon dioxide (CO2). However, at part loads — when the firing temperature is lower — the CO to CO2 oxidation reaction is quenched by the cool regions near the walls of the combustion liner. This results in increased CO emissions at low loads. In order to provide greater operational flexibility to its F- & G-class gas turbine operators, Siemens has developed an upgrade for the engine system designed to allow the gas turbine to operate at lower loads while maintaining emissions. This low load turndown upgrade has been installed, tested and is currently in operation at 8 F and 4 G class Siemens operating gas turbines. These plants were previously operating typically between 70% and 100% of GT base load. Sometimes, when the demand for power was low, typically at night and on weekends, these plants would shut down. During these low power demand periods — with this upgrade installed — these plants continue to operate down to lower loads while maintaining CO emissions and with a capability to more quickly ramp-up to full load when the demand for power increases. This paper details the installation, testing results and continued validation of the Low Load Turndown upgrade.

The main aim of this paper is to assess the potential of the EU and its citizens to face the Coronavirus pandemic as a chance to reaffirm the European identity. This paper consists of three complementary parts. In the first part conceptualization of the European identity is presented according to the views of the EU institutions and relevant authors with purpose to signify its importance for further development of the EU project. In the second part the extent to which the EU citizens are currently affiliated with the European Union is assessed, especially with regard to the response of the EU to confront the pandemic (i.e. by relying on recent Eurobarometer surveys). Third and the central part of this paper is focused on providing the review and analysis of relevant solidarity actions directed to confront Coronavirus crisis by the EU institutions and representative CSOs active specifically at the EU level in the field of promoting European citizenship. The key findings of this inquiry indicate that analysed initiatives contain solidarity dimension, and therefore, have potential to reaffirm the European identity, that is, to enhance cohesion and unity among the EU citizens.

The new EU strategy on adaptation to climate change highlights the urgency of adaptation measures while bringing forth adaptation as vitally important as a response to climate change as mitigation. In order to provide information on how adaptation to climate change has been promoted in Finland and what calls for attention next, we have compiled a comprehensive information package focusing on the following themes: adaptation policy, impacts of climate change including economic impacts, regional adaptation strategies, climate and flood risks in regions and sea areas, and the availability of scientific data. This report consists of two parts. Part 1 of the report examines the work carried out on adaptation in Finland and internationally since 2005, emphasising the directions and priorities of recent research results. The possibilities of adaptation governance are examined through examples, such as how adaptations steering is organised in of the United Kingdom. We also examine other examples and describe the Canadian Climate Change Adaptation Platform (CCAP) model. We apply current information to describe the economic impacts of climate change and highlight the related needs for further information. With regard to regional climate strategy work, we examine the status of adaptation plans by region and the status of the Sámi in national adaptation work. In part 2 of the report, we have collected information on the temporal and local impacts of climate change and compiled extensive tables on changes in weather, climate and marine factors for each of Finland's current regions, the autonomous Åland Islands and five sea areas, the eastern Gulf of Finland, the western Gulf of Finland, the Archipelago Sea, the Bothnian Sea and the Bay of Bothnia. As regards changes in weather and climate factors, the changes already observed in 1991-2020 are examined compared to 1981-2010 and future changes until 2050 are described. For weather and climate factors, we examine average temperature, precipitation, thermal season duration, highest and lowest temperatures per day, the number of frost days, the depth and prevalence of snow, the intensity of heavy rainfall, relative humidity, wind speed, and the amount of frost per season (winter, spring, summer, autumn). Flood risks, i.e. water system floods, run-off water floods and sea water floods, are discussed from the perspective of catchment areas by region. The impacts of floods on the sea in terms of pollution are also assessed by sea area, especially for coastal areas. With regard to marine change factors, we examine surface temperature, salinity, medium water level, sea flood risk, waves, and sea ice. We also describe combined risks towards sea areas. With this report, we demonstrate what is known about climate change adaptation, what is not, and what calls for particular attention. The results can be utilised to strengthen Finland's climate policy so that the implementation of climate change adaptation is strengthened alongside climate change mitigation efforts. In practice, the report serves the reform of the National Climate Change Adaptation Plan and the development of steering measures for adaptation to climate change both nationally and regionally. Due to its scale, the report also serves e.g. the United Nations’ aim of protecting marine life in the Baltic Sea and the national implementation of the EU strategy for adaptation to climate change. As a whole, the implementation of adaptation policy in Finland must be speeded up swiftly in order to achieve the objectives set and ensure sufficient progress in adaptation in different sectors. The development of binding regulation and the systematic evaluation, monitoring and support of voluntary measures play a key role.

This rapid review provides insight into the effects of climate change in the Republic of Yemen (Yemen), with particular attention on key sectors of concern, including food security, water, energy and health. Many contextual and background factors are relevant when discussing climate-related impacts and potential priorities in Yemen. Limited studies and tools that provide climate data for Yemen exist, and there is a clear lack of recent and reliable climate data and statistics for past and future climates in Yemen, both at the national and more local levels (downscaled). Country-level information in this report is drawn mostly from information reported in Yemen’s UNFCCC reporting (Republic of Yemen, 2013, 2015) and other sources, which tend to be donor climate change country profiles, such as a USAID (2017) climate change risk profile for Yemen and a Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) (2015) climate fact sheet on Yemen. Many of these are based on projections from older sources. Studies more commonly tend to look at water scarcity or food insecurity issues in relation to Yemen, with climate change mentioned as a factor (one of many) but not the main focus. Regional information is taken from the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) report in relation to the Arabian Peninsula (and hence Yemen). Academic sources as well as donor, research institutes and intergovernmental organisations sources are also included. It was outside the scope of this report to review literature in the Arabic language.

Forest and wildland fires are a natural part of ecosystems worldwide, but large fires in particular can cause societal, economic and ecological disruption. Fires are an important source of greenhouse gases and black carbon that can further amplify and accelerate climate change. In recent years, large forest fires in Sweden demonstrate that the issue should also be considered in other parts of Fennoscandia. This final report of the project “Forest fires in Fennoscandia under changing climate and forest cover (IBA ForestFires)” funded by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, synthesises current knowledge of the occurrence, monitoring, modelling and suppression of forest fires in Fennoscandia. The report also focuses on elaborating the role of forest fires as a source of black carbon (BC) emissions over the Arctic and discussing the importance of international collaboration in tackling forest fires. The report explains the factors regulating fire ignition, spread and intensity in Fennoscandian conditions. It highlights that the climate in Fennoscandia is characterised by large inter-annual variability, which is reflected in forest fire risk. Here, the majority of forest fires are caused by human activities such as careless handling of fire and ignitions related to forest harvesting. In addition to weather and climate, fuel characteristics in forests influence fire ignition, intensity and spread. In the report, long-term fire statistics are presented for Finland, Sweden and the Republic of Karelia. The statistics indicate that the amount of annually burnt forest has decreased in Fennoscandia. However, with the exception of recent large fires in Sweden, during the past 25 years the annually burnt area and number of fires have been fairly stable, which is mainly due to effective fire mitigation. Land surface models were used to investigate how climate change and forest management can influence forest fires in the future. The simulations were conducted using different regional climate models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Simulations, extending to 2100, indicate that forest fire risk is likely to increase over the coming decades. The report also highlights that globally, forest fires are a significant source of BC in the Arctic, having adverse health effects and further amplifying climate warming. However, simulations made using an atmospheric dispersion model indicate that the impact of forest fires in Fennoscandia on the environment and air quality is relatively minor and highly seasonal. Efficient forest fire mitigation requires the development of forest fire detection tools including satellites and drones, high spatial resolution modelling of fire risk and fire spreading that account for detailed terrain and weather information. Moreover, increasing the general preparedness and operational efficiency of firefighting is highly important. Forest fires are a large challenge requiring multidisciplinary research and close cooperation between the various administrative operators, e.g. rescue services, weather services, forest organisations and forest owners is required at both the national and international level.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

The IDB has been a predominant partner supporting Haiti development efforts for many years. Nowadays, the IDB is the main source of investment for the country. Considering the vital weight of road transport sector in the socio-economy of the country, the IDB has concentrated a large part of investment efforts in rehabilitating and improving national road infrastructures. In the same time, a rapid increase of motorization and relatively higher speeds have contributed to increasing the number of traffic fatalities and injuries. In 2017, road injuries were the fifth cause of mortality in Haiti. The Road Safety situation of the country is preoccupying with many Vulnerable Road Users involved, in particular pedestrians and motorcyclists. The country is facing multi-sector challenges to address this Road Safety situation. Despite recent efforts, high political will has not been continuous in promoting a multi-sector coordination and the success of technical efforts remained mitigated over the last years. Road user awareness is still weak in the country. Risk factors include dangerous driving, bad safety conditions of vehicles, together with limited law enforcement and poor maintenance of safety devices on the roads. In this context, the Road Safety situation of the country may be getting worse in the coming years if no action is taken. However, the new Decade provides with a unique opportunity to achieve Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) including significant progress in reducing the burden of traffic crashes. The IDB has already initiated vital investments in modernizing crash data collection, promoting institutional dialogue and supporting capacity building in the area of Road Safety. Future actions to address Road Safety challenges in Haiti in the framework of the five UN five pillars would require a range of investments in the area of political commitment, institutional coordination and technical efforts. A change of political paradigm from making roads for travelling faster to making roads safer for all users is highly needed at national level. This technical note on Road Safety in Haiti present the current situation of the country and provides with recommendations for future actions on Road Safety.

Why research Palaeolithic and Mesolithic Scotland? Palaeolithic and Mesolithic archaeology sheds light on the first colonisation and subsequent early inhabitation of Scotland. It is a growing and exciting field where increasing Scottish evidence has been given wider significance in the context of European prehistory. It extends over a long period, which saw great changes, including substantial environmental transformations, and the impact of, and societal response to, climate change. The period as a whole provides the foundation for the human occupation of Scotland and is crucial for understanding prehistoric society, both for Scotland and across North-West Europe. Within the Palaeolithic and Mesolithic periods there are considerable opportunities for pioneering research. Individual projects can still have a substantial impact and there remain opportunities for pioneering discoveries including cemeteries, domestic and other structures, stratified sites, and for exploring the huge evidential potential of water-logged and underwater sites. Palaeolithic and Mesolithic archaeology also stimulates and draws upon exciting multi-disciplinary collaborations. Panel Task and Remit The panel remit was to review critically the current state of knowledge and consider promising areas of future research into the earliest prehistory of Scotland. This was undertaken with a view to improved understanding of all aspects of the colonization and inhabitation of the country by peoples practising a wholly hunter-fisher-gatherer way of life prior to the advent of farming. In so doing, it was recognised as particularly important that both environmental data (including vegetation, fauna, sea level, and landscape work) and cultural change during this period be evaluated. The resultant report, outlines the different areas of research in which archaeologists interested in early prehistory work, and highlights the research topics to which they aspire. The report is structured by theme: history of investigation; reconstruction of the environment; the nature of the archaeological record; methodologies for recreating the past; and finally, the lifestyles of past people – the latter representing both a statement of current knowledge and the ultimate aim for archaeologists; the goal of all the former sections. The document is reinforced by material on-line which provides further detail and resources. The Palaeolithic and Mesolithic panel report of ScARF is intended as a resource to be utilised, built upon, and kept updated, hopefully by those it has helped inspire and inform as well as those who follow in their footsteps. Future Research The main recommendations of the panel report can be summarized under four key headings:  Visibility: Due to the considerable length of time over which sites were formed, and the predominant mobility of the population, early prehistoric remains are to be found right across the landscape, although they often survive as ephemeral traces and in low densities. Therefore, all archaeological work should take into account the expectation of Palaeolithic and Mesolithic ScARF Panel Report iv encountering early prehistoric remains. This applies equally to both commercial and research archaeology, and to amateur activity which often makes the initial discovery. This should not be seen as an obstacle, but as a benefit, and not finding such remains should be cause for question. There is no doubt that important evidence of these periods remains unrecognised in private, public, and commercial collections and there is a strong need for backlog evaluation, proper curation and analysis. The inadequate representation of Palaeolithic and Mesolithic information in existing national and local databases must be addressed.  Collaboration: Multi-disciplinary, collaborative, and cross- sector approaches must be encouraged – site prospection, prediction, recognition, and contextualisation are key areas to this end. Reconstructing past environments and their chronological frameworks, and exploring submerged and buried landscapes offer existing examples of fruitful, cross-disciplinary work. Palaeolithic and Mesolithic archaeology has an important place within Quaternary science and the potential for deeply buried remains means that geoarchaeology should have a prominent role.  Innovation: Research-led projects are currently making a substantial impact across all aspects of Palaeolithic and Mesolithic archaeology; a funding policy that acknowledges risk and promotes the innovation that these periods demand should be encouraged. The exploration of lesser known areas, work on different types of site, new approaches to artefacts, and the application of novel methodologies should all be promoted when engaging with the challenges of early prehistory.  Tackling the ‘big questions’: Archaeologists should engage with the big questions of earliest prehistory in Scotland, including the colonisation of new land, how lifestyles in past societies were organized, the effects of and the responses to environmental change, and the transitions to new modes of life. This should be done through a holistic view of the available data, encompassing all the complexities of interpretation and developing competing and testable models. Scottish data can be used to address many of the currently topical research topics in archaeology, and will provide a springboard to a better understanding of early prehistoric life in Scotland and beyond.

The main recommendations of the Panel report can be summarised as follows: The Overall Picture: more needs to be understood about the process of acculturation of indigenous communities; about the Atlantic, Breton strand of Neolithisation; about the ‘how and why’ of the spread of Grooved Ware use and its associated practices and traditions; and about reactions to Continental Beaker novelties which appeared from the 25th century. The Detailed Picture: Our understanding of developments in different parts of Scotland is very uneven, with Shetland and the north-west mainland being in particular need of targeted research. Also, here and elsewhere in Scotland, the chronology of developments needs to be clarified, especially as regards developments in the Hebrides. Lifeways and Lifestyles: Research needs to be directed towards filling the substantial gaps in our understanding of: i) subsistence strategies; ii) landscape use (including issues of population size and distribution); iii) environmental change and its consequences – and in particular issues of sea level rise, peat formation and woodland regeneration; and iv) the nature and organisation of the places where people lived; and to track changes over time in all of these. Material Culture and Use of Resources: In addition to fine-tuning our characterisation of material culture and resource use (and its changes over the course of the Neolithic), we need to apply a wider range of analytical approaches in order to discover more about manufacture and use.Some basic questions still need to be addressed (e.g. the chronology of felsite use in Shetland; what kind of pottery was in use, c 3000–2500, in areas where Grooved Ware was not used, etc.) and are outlined in the relevant section of the document. Our knowledge of organic artefacts is very limited, so research in waterlogged contexts is desirable. Identity, Society, Belief Systems: Basic questions about the organisation of society need to be addressed: are we dealing with communities that started out as egalitarian, but (in some regions) became socially differentiated? Can we identify acculturated indigenous people? How much mobility, and what kind of mobility, was there at different times during the Neolithic? And our chronology of certain monument types and key sites (including the Ring of Brodgar, despite its recent excavation) requires to be clarified, especially since we now know that certain types of monument (including Clava cairns) were not built during the Neolithic. The way in which certain types of site (e.g. large palisaded enclosures) were used remains to be clarified. Research and methodological issues: There is still much ignorance of the results of past and current research, so more effective means of dissemination are required. Basic inventory information (e.g. the Scottish Human Remains Database) needs to be compiled, and Canmore and museum database information needs to be updated and expanded – and, where not already available online, placed online, preferably with a Scottish Neolithic e-hub that directs the enquirer to all the available sources of information. The Historic Scotland on-line radiocarbon date inventory needs to be resurrected and kept up to date. Under-used resources, including the rich aerial photography archive in the NMRS, need to have their potential fully exploited. Multi-disciplinary, collaborative research (and the application of GIS modelling to spatial data in order to process the results) is vital if we are to escape from the current ‘silo’ approach and address key research questions from a range of perspectives; and awareness of relevant research outside Scotland is essential if we are to avoid reinventing the wheel. Our perspective needs to encompass multi-scale approaches, so that ScARF Neolithic Panel Report iv developments within Scotland can be understood at a local, regional and wider level. Most importantly, the right questions need to be framed, and the right research strategies need to be developed, in order to extract the maximum amount of information about the Scottish Neolithic.

As a student undertaking a Longitudinal Integrated Clerkship (LIC)1 based in a GP practice in a rural community in the North of Scotland, I have been lucky to be given responsibility and my own clinic lists. Every day I conduct consultations that change my practice: the challenge of clinically applying the theory I have studied, controlling a consultation and efficiently exploring a patient's problems, empathising with and empowering them to play a part in their own care2 – and most difficult I feel – dealing with the vast amount of uncertainty that medicine, and particularly primary care, presents to both clinician and patient. I initially consulted with a lady in her 60s who attended with her husband, complaining of severe lower back pain who was very difficult to assess due to her pain level. Her husband was understandably concerned about the degree of pain she was in. After assessment and discussion with one of the GPs, we agreed some pain relief and a physio assessment in the next few days would be a practical plan. The patient had one red flag, some leg weakness and numbness, which was her ‘normal’ on account of her multiple sclerosis. At the physio assessment a few days later, the physio felt things were worse and some urgent bloods were ordered, unfortunately finding raised cancer and inflammatory markers. A CT scan of the lung found widespread cancer, a later CT of the head after some developing some acute confusion found brain metastases, and a week and a half after presenting to me, the patient sadly died in hospital. While that was all impactful enough on me, it was the follow-up appointment with the husband who attended on the last triage slot of the evening two weeks later that I found completely altered my understanding of grief and the mourning of a loved one. The husband had asked to speak to a Andrew MacFarlane Year 3 ScotGEM Medical Student 2 doctor just to talk about what had happened to his wife. The GP decided that it would be better if he came into the practice - strictly he probably should have been consulted with over the phone due to coronavirus restrictions - but he was asked what he would prefer and he opted to come in. I sat in on the consultation, I had been helping with any examinations the triage doctor needed and I recognised that this was the husband of the lady I had seen a few weeks earlier. He came in and sat down, head lowered, hands fiddling with the zip on his jacket, trying to find what to say. The GP sat, turned so that they were opposite each other with no desk between them - I was seated off to the side, an onlooker, but acknowledged by the patient with a kind nod when he entered the room. The GP asked gently, “How are you doing?” and roughly 30 seconds passed (a long time in a conversation) before the patient spoke. “I just really miss her…” he whispered with great effort, “I don’t understand how this all happened.” Over the next 45 minutes, he spoke about his wife, how much pain she had been in, the rapid deterioration he witnessed, the cancer being found, and cruelly how she had passed away after he had gone home to get some rest after being by her bedside all day in the hospital. He talked about how they had met, how much he missed her, how empty the house felt without her, and asking himself and us how he was meant to move forward with his life. He had a lot of questions for us, and for himself. Had we missed anything – had he missed anything? The GP really just listened for almost the whole consultation, speaking to him gently, reassuring him that this wasn’t his or anyone’s fault. She stated that this was an awful time for him and that what he was feeling was entirely normal and something we will all universally go through. She emphasised that while it wasn’t helpful at the moment, that things would get better over time.3 He was really glad I was there – having shared a consultation with his wife and I – he thanked me emphatically even though I felt like I hadn’t really helped at all. After some tears, frequent moments of silence and a lot of questions, he left having gotten a lot off his chest. “You just have to listen to people, be there for them as they go through things, and answer their questions as best you can” urged my GP as we discussed the case when the patient left. Almost all family caregivers contact their GP with regards to grief and this consultation really made me realise how important an aspect of my practice it will be in the future.4 It has also made me reflect on the emphasis on undergraduate teaching around ‘breaking bad news’ to patients, but nothing taught about when patients are in the process of grieving further down the line.5 The skill Andrew MacFarlane Year 3 ScotGEM Medical Student 3 required to manage a grieving patient is not one limited to general practice. Patients may grieve the loss of function from acute trauma through to chronic illness in all specialties of medicine - in addition to ‘traditional’ grief from loss of family or friends.6 There wasn’t anything ‘medical’ in the consultation, but I came away from it with a real sense of purpose as to why this career is such a privilege. We look after patients so they can spend as much quality time as they are given with their loved ones, and their loved ones are the ones we care for after they are gone. We as doctors are the constant, and we have to meet patients with compassion at their most difficult times – because it is as much a part of the job as the knowledge and the science – and it is the part of us that patients will remember long after they leave our clinic room. Word Count: 993 words References 1. ScotGEM MBChB - Subjects - University of St Andrews [Internet]. [cited 2021 Mar 27]. Available from: https://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/subjects/medicine/scotgem-mbchb/ 2. Shared decision making in realistic medicine: what works - gov.scot [Internet]. [cited 2021 Mar 27]. Available from: https://www.gov.scot/publications/works-support-promote-shared-decisionmaking-synthesis-recent-evidence/pages/1/ 3. Ghesquiere AR, Patel SR, Kaplan DB, Bruce ML. Primary care providers’ bereavement care practices: Recommendations for research directions. Int J Geriatr Psychiatry. 2014 Dec;29(12):1221–9. 4. Nielsen MK, Christensen K, Neergaard MA, Bidstrup PE, Guldin M-B. Grief symptoms and primary care use: a prospective study of family caregivers. BJGP Open [Internet]. 2020 Aug 1 [cited 2021 Mar 27];4(3). Available from: https://bjgpopen.org/content/4/3/bjgpopen20X101063 5. O’Connor M, Breen LJ. General Practitioners’ experiences of bereavement care and their educational support needs: a qualitative study. BMC Medical Education. 2014 Mar 27;14(1):59. 6. Sikstrom L, Saikaly R, Ferguson G, Mosher PJ, Bonato S, Soklaridis S. Being there: A scoping review of grief support training in medical education. PLOS ONE. 2019 Nov 27;14(11):e0224325.

The Colombian financial system has not suffered major structural disruptions during these months of deep economic contraction and has continued to carry out its basic functions as usual, thus facilitating the economy's response to extreme conditions. This is the result of the soundness of financial institutions at the beginning of the crisis, which was reflected in high liquidity and capital adequacy indicators as well as in the timely response of various authorities. Banco de la República lowered its policy interest rates 250 points to 1.75%, the lowest level since the creation of the new independent bank in 1991, and provided ample temporary and permanent liquidity in both pesos and foreign currency. The Office of the Financial Superintendent of Colombia, in turn, adopted prudential measures to facilitate changes in the conditions for loans in effect and temporary rules for rating and loan-loss provisions. Finally, the national government expanded the transfers as well as the guaranteed credit programs for the economy. The supply of real credit (i.e. discounting inflation) in the economy is 4% higher today than it was 12 months ago with especially marked growth in the housing (5.6%) and commercial (4.7%) loan portfolios (2.3% in consumer and -0.1% in microloans), but there have been significant changes over time. During the first few months of the quarantine, firms increased their demands for liquidity sharply while consumers reduced theirs. Since then, the growth of credit to firms has tended to slow down, while consumer and housing credit has grown. The financial system has responded satisfactorily to the changes in the respective demands of each group or sector and loans may grow at high rates in 2021 if GDP grows at rates close to 4.6% as the technical staff at the Bank expects; but the forecasts are highly uncertain. After the strict quarantine implemented by authorities in Colombia, the turmoil seen in March and early April, which was evident in the sudden reddening of macroeconomic variables on the risk heatmap in Graph A,[1] and the drop in crude oil and coal prices (note the high volatility registered in market risk for the region on Graph A) the local financial markets stabilized relatively quickly. Banco de la República’s credible and sustained policy response played a decisive role in this stabilization in terms of liquidity provision through a sharp expansion of repo operations (and changes in amounts, terms, counterparties, and eligible instruments), the purchases of public and private debt, and the reduction in bank reserve requirements. In this respect, there is now abundant aggregate liquidity and significant improvements in the liquidity position of investment funds. In this context, the main vulnerability factor for financial stability in the short term is still the high degree of uncertainty surrounding loan quality. First, the future trajectory of the number of people infected and deceased by the virus and the possible need for additional health measures is uncertain. For that reason, there is also uncertainty about the path for economic recovery in the short and medium term. Second, the degree to which the current shock will be reflected in loan quality once the risk materializes in banks’ financial statements is uncertain. For the time being, the credit risk heatmap (Graph B) indicates that non-performing and risky loans have not shown major deterioration, but past experience indicates that periods of sharp economic slowdown eventually tend to coincide with rises in non-performing loans: the calculations included in this report suggest that the impact of the recession on credit quality could be significant in the short term. This is particularly worrying since the profitability of credit establishments has been declining in recent months, and this could affect their ability to provide credit to the real sector of the economy. In order to adopt a forward-looking approach to this vulnerability, this Report presents several stress tests that evaluate the resilience of the liquidity and capital adequacy of credit institutions and investment funds in the event of a hypothetical scenario that seeks to simulate an extreme version of current macroeconomic conditions. The results suggest that even though there could be strong impacts on the credit institutions’ volume of credit and profitability under such scenarios, aggregate indicators of total and core capital adequacy will probably remain at levels that are above the regulatory limits over the horizon of a year. At the same time, the exercises highlight the high capacity of the system's liquidity to face adverse scenarios. In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system's security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the outlook for financial stability at this juncture and will make the decisions that are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the flow of sufficient credit and liquidity resources, and further the smooth operation of the payment systems. Juan José Echavarría Governor

This report maps the African landscape of Open Science – with a focus on Open Data as a sub-set of Open Science. Data to inform the landscape study were collected through a variety of methods, including surveys, desk research, engagement with a community of practice, networking with stakeholders, participation in conferences, case study presentations, and workshops hosted. Although the majority of African countries (35 of 54) demonstrates commitment to science through its investment in research and development (R&D), academies of science, ministries of science and technology, policies, recognition of research, and participation in the Science Granting Councils Initiative (SGCI), the following countries demonstrate the highest commitment and political willingness to invest in science: Botswana, Ethiopia, Kenya, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, and Uganda. In addition to existing policies in Science, Technology and Innovation (STI), the following countries have made progress towards Open Data policies: Botswana, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, South Africa and Uganda. Only two African countries (Kenya and South Africa) at this stage contribute 0.8% of its GDP (Gross Domestic Product) to R&D (Research and Development), which is the closest to the AU’s (African Union’s) suggested 1%. Countries such as Lesotho and Madagascar ranked as 0%, while the R&D expenditure for 24 African countries is unknown. In addition to this, science globally has become fully dependent on stable ICT (Information and Communication Technologies) infrastructure, which includes connectivity/bandwidth, high performance computing facilities and data services. This is especially applicable since countries globally are finding themselves in the midst of the 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR), which is not only “about” data, but which “is” data. According to an article1 by Alan Marcus (2015) (Senior Director, Head of Information Technology and Telecommunications Industries, World Economic Forum), “At its core, data represents a post-industrial opportunity. Its uses have unprecedented complexity, velocity and global reach. As digital communications become ubiquitous, data will rule in a world where nearly everyone and everything is connected in real time. That will require a highly reliable, secure and available infrastructure at its core, and innovation at the edge.” Every industry is affected as part of this revolution – also science. An important component of the digital transformation is “trust” – people must be able to trust that governments and all other industries (including the science sector), adequately handle and protect their data. This requires accountability on a global level, and digital industries must embrace the change and go for a higher standard of protection. “This will reassure consumers and citizens, benefitting the whole digital economy”, says Marcus. A stable and secure information and communication technologies (ICT) infrastructure – currently provided by the National Research and Education Networks (NRENs) – is key to advance collaboration in science. The AfricaConnect2 project (AfricaConnect (2012–2014) and AfricaConnect2 (2016–2018)) through establishing connectivity between National Research and Education Networks (NRENs), is planning to roll out AfricaConnect3 by the end of 2019. The concern however is that selected African governments (with the exception of a few countries such as South Africa, Mozambique, Ethiopia and others) have low awareness of the impact the Internet has today on all societal levels, how much ICT (and the 4th Industrial Revolution) have affected research, and the added value an NREN can bring to higher education and research in addressing the respective needs, which is far more complex than simply providing connectivity. Apart from more commitment and investment in R&D, African governments – to become and remain part of the 4th Industrial Revolution – have no option other than to acknowledge and commit to the role NRENs play in advancing science towards addressing the SDG (Sustainable Development Goals). For successful collaboration and direction, it is fundamental that policies within one country are aligned with one another. Alignment on continental level is crucial for the future Pan-African African Open Science Platform to be successful. Both the HIPSSA ((Harmonization of ICT Policies in Sub-Saharan Africa)3 project and WATRA (the West Africa Telecommunications Regulators Assembly)4, have made progress towards the regulation of the telecom sector, and in particular of bottlenecks which curb the development of competition among ISPs. A study under HIPSSA identified potential bottlenecks in access at an affordable price to the international capacity of submarine cables and suggested means and tools used by regulators to remedy them. Work on the recommended measures and making them operational continues in collaboration with WATRA. In addition to sufficient bandwidth and connectivity, high-performance computing facilities and services in support of data sharing are also required. The South African National Integrated Cyberinfrastructure System5 (NICIS) has made great progress in planning and setting up a cyberinfrastructure ecosystem in support of collaborative science and data sharing. The regional Southern African Development Community6 (SADC) Cyber-infrastructure Framework provides a valuable roadmap towards high-speed Internet, developing human capacity and skills in ICT technologies, high- performance computing and more. The following countries have been identified as having high-performance computing facilities, some as a result of the Square Kilometre Array7 (SKA) partnership: Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Mauritius, Namibia, South Africa, Tunisia, and Zambia. More and more NRENs – especially the Level 6 NRENs 8 (Algeria, Egypt, Kenya, South Africa, and recently Zambia) – are exploring offering additional services; also in support of data sharing and transfer. The following NRENs already allow for running data-intensive applications and sharing of high-end computing assets, bio-modelling and computation on high-performance/ supercomputers: KENET (Kenya), TENET (South Africa), RENU (Uganda), ZAMREN (Zambia), EUN (Egypt) and ARN (Algeria). Fifteen higher education training institutions from eight African countries (Botswana, Benin, Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, Sudan, and Tanzania) have been identified as offering formal courses on data science. In addition to formal degrees, a number of international short courses have been developed and free international online courses are also available as an option to build capacity and integrate as part of curricula. The small number of higher education or research intensive institutions offering data science is however insufficient, and there is a desperate need for more training in data science. The CODATA-RDA Schools of Research Data Science aim at addressing the continental need for foundational data skills across all disciplines, along with training conducted by The Carpentries 9 programme (specifically Data Carpentry 10 ). Thus far, CODATA-RDA schools in collaboration with AOSP, integrating content from Data Carpentry, were presented in Rwanda (in 2018), and during17-29 June 2019, in Ethiopia. Awareness regarding Open Science (including Open Data) is evident through the 12 Open Science-related Open Access/Open Data/Open Science declarations and agreements endorsed or signed by African governments; 200 Open Access journals from Africa registered on the Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ); 174 Open Access institutional research repositories registered on openDOAR (Directory of Open Access Repositories); 33 Open Access/Open Science policies registered on ROARMAP (Registry of Open Access Repository Mandates and Policies); 24 data repositories registered with the Registry of Data Repositories (re3data.org) (although the pilot project identified 66 research data repositories); and one data repository assigned the CoreTrustSeal. Although this is a start, far more needs to be done to align African data curation and research practices with global standards. Funding to conduct research remains a challenge. African researchers mostly fund their own research, and there are little incentives for them to make their research and accompanying data sets openly accessible. Funding and peer recognition, along with an enabling research environment conducive for research, are regarded as major incentives. The landscape report concludes with a number of concerns towards sharing research data openly, as well as challenges in terms of Open Data policy, ICT infrastructure supportive of data sharing, capacity building, lack of skills, and the need for incentives. Although great progress has been made in terms of Open Science and Open Data practices, more awareness needs to be created and further advocacy efforts are required for buy-in from African governments. A federated African Open Science Platform (AOSP) will not only encourage more collaboration among researchers in addressing the SDGs, but it will also benefit the many stakeholders identified as part of the pilot phase. The time is now, for governments in Africa, to acknowledge the important role of science in general, but specifically Open Science and Open Data, through developing and aligning the relevant policies, investing in an ICT infrastructure conducive for data sharing through committing funding to making NRENs financially sustainable, incentivising open research practices by scientists, and creating opportunities for more scientists and stakeholders across all disciplines to be trained in data management.