Добірка наукової літератури з теми "Price of consumed energy"

The agricultural commodity crisis of 2006-8 and the recent evolution of commodity markets have reignited anxieties in Finland over fast-rising food prices and food security. Although the impact of farm commodity price shocks on the final consumer is mitigated by a large degree of processing as well as the complex structure of the food chain, little is known about the strength of the linkages between food markets and input markets. Using monthly series of price indices from 1995 to 2010, we estimate a vector error-correction (VEC) model in a co-integration framework in order to investigate the short-term and long-term dynamics of food price formation. The results indicate that a statistically significant long-run equilibrium relationship exists between the prices of food and those of the main variable inputs consumed by the food chain, namely agricultural commodities, labour, and energy. When judged by the magnitude of long-run pass-through rates, farm prices represent the main determinant of food prices, followed by wages in food retail and the price of energy. However, highly volatile energy prices are also important in explaining food price variability. The parsimonious VEC model suggests that the dynamics of food price formation is dominated by a relatively quick process of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium, the half life of the transitional dynamics being six to eight months following a shock.

A framework is proposed which is aimed at increasing the much needed revenue of the wireless service providers. The model uses the price paid by the wireless users to control the amount of energy consumed and the admission process based on a dynamic spectrum access network. The scheme is based on using a first price auction process with a reserve price to allocate the radio spectrum. It allows an opportunistic access to the white space in a manner that would protect the primary users in the system. The concept of green payment is used to penalise users who require high transmit power and subsidies those who require low transmit power. This work shows that with the proposed green payment in combination with the knowledge of the reserve price, the energy consumed and the delay in an auction based dynamic spectrum access network can be reduced.

Abstract This paper examines if an energy price shock should be compensated by a reduction in energy taxes to mitigate its impact on consumer prices. It shows that the consumer price should not increase by as much as the producer price, implying a small reduction in the energy tax in dollars. The energy tax rate, on the other hand, decreases sharply. This decline is primarily due to an adjustment in the Pigouvian component: A constant marginal social damage being divided by a higher producer price. The redistributive component of the tax remains at about 10% of the social cost of energy.

This study has investigated the relationship between the changes in oil and natural gas prices on the Malaysian economic sectors. Four economic sectors were selected namely manufacturing, services, agriculture, and mining. However, there was less study conducted at the sector level. Hence, the goal of this paper is to explore the impact of oil and gas prices on economic sectors GDP. This study has conducted econometrics modelling based on the ARDL bound testing with the spanning time series data from year 1987 to 2017. The empirical findings revealed that the relationship between the oil and natural gas prices in the manufacturing and services sector is negative, while the agriculture sector showed a positive relationship, and the mining sector showed no relationship. The empirical findings concluded that the manufacturing and services sectors that consumed more energy are dependent on the price changes. Meanwhile, the agriculture sector is a highly subsidised sector which has a positive relationship with energy prices. In the policy recommendation, Malaysia has to apply the energy pricing policy by offering energy subsidy to the high energy consumed sectors. Finally, Malaysia should develop policies that can diversify its energy resources and increase the shares of renewable energy sources.

<p>The primary aim of this work is to feature the advantages of integrating natural source of energy from the solar and wind to the prevailing electric power systems. Two types of analysis are carried out in two test systems (standard and modified test systems) and the outcome of the test systems are compared. The two analyses are technical analysis and economic analysis. The stability of the voltage is analyzed under technical analysis and the price of energy consumed from the electric grid is calculated and analyzed under the economic analysis. Dynamic hourly load data, hourly solar radiation, hourly wind velocity, and dynamic electricity prices are considered for the standard IEEE system and modified test system (with the integration of RES). Voltage stability index (L-Index) and price of the electricity consumed from electric grid are found for standard test system and the outcome is compared with the outcome of modified test systems. MATLAB coding is done for techno-economic analysis for both test systems. It is inferred from the outcome that the integration of renewable energy sources fairly contributes to the economic benefit of the system by lowering the power purchased from the grid and enhance the stability of the system.</p>

AbstractObjectiveAn important debate in the literature is whether or not higher energy-dense foods are cheaper than less energy-dense foods. The present communication develops and applies an easy statistical test to determine if the relationship between food price and energy density is an artifact of how the data units are constructed (i.e. is it ‘spurious’ or ‘real’?).DesignAfter matching data on 4430 different foods from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey with corresponding prices from the Center for Nutrition Policy and Promotion’s Food Prices Database, we use a simple regression model to test if the relationship between food price and energy density is ‘real’ or ‘spurious’.SettingUSA.SubjectsTotal sample size is 4430 observations of consumed foods from 4578 participants from the non-institutionalized US adult population (aged 19 years and over).ResultsOver all 4430 foods, the null hypothesis of a spurious inverse relationship between food price per energy density and energy density is not rejected. When the analysis is broken down by twenty-five food groups, there are only two cases where the inverse relationship is not spurious. In fact, the majority of non-spurious relationships between food price and energy density are positive, not negative.ConclusionsOne of the main arguments put forth regarding the poor diet quality of low-income households is that high energy-dense food is cheaper than lower energy-dense food. We find almost no statistical support for higher energy-dense food being cheaper than low energy-dense food. While economics certainly plays a role in explaining low nutritional quality, more sophisticated economic arguments are required and discussed.

The article presents the purpose of the study as building a mathematical model for forecasting the consumption of electric energy and power for six price categories in the power supply system of the enterprise and developing an algorithm that allows the consumer to choose the best cost of electricity. Consideration of the system as an integral complex of interacting objects was carried out from the standpoint of cause-effect relationships and mutual influence. For the analysis of scientific data, the principles of consistency, structuring, integrity, hierarchy and multiplicity were applied. The structural-functional approach allowed to study the elements (subsystems) and the dependencies between them within a single system. The study of the current state was carried out; a forecast was made of the electric consumption of the enterprise using the initial data; a mathematical model of electric energy and power was developed for six price categories; an algorithm for determining the price category was developed, which allows finding a financially profitable price category. The study can be used as the basis for consumers in the Russian Federation to choose a financially favorable price category and cost of electric energy. There has been performed an independent experimental verification of the algorithm for determining the price category, the item of expenses “payment of consumed electric energy” for the facility has been reduced. The experiment shows the practical applicability of the mathematical forecast model and the economic efficiency of the algorithm for determining the price category of electric energy.

Relevance and methods. A food security is determined energy value of food (calorie) . Being a energy characteristic of food, calorie is determined necessaric energy reserve of lifework . Using calories as some energetic criterion fof food security let to do simplest and availiablest assessments of forecast. Assessing and comparing a price dynamics of animal and plant calories may use for modeling a mechanism of food security. Purpose of research - analysis of price of food calories in Russia.Results. Based a energy methods and Rosstat data caloric value of food produced and consumed iwas calculated for period 1990-2017 years of the Russian Federation . A food safety criterion is proposed. Showed double reserve of caloric for consumation of Russian population. Rubles caloric value equivalent was proposed, price calculations and analysis of price dynamics by type of food are carried out.

In modern conditions, the search for non-standard and original approaches to solving problems in the development of economies of different levels is claimed by both theorists and practitioners. In this paper, the authors emphasize the need to study the consumption of not only electricity, but also all forms of energy in the production of goods and the provision of services. Such issues of the topic as the essence of the energy consumer theory of a firm, the characteristic of total energy as the main factor of a firm’s consumption, technical-technological and financial-economic manifestations of various forms of energy in the activity of a firm are also reflected in this work. Proposed to use the economic category "price of the total energy of the company", "the total amount of energy consumed by the company". Well-known indicators such as energy intensity, energy consumption limit, energy efficiency, financial intensity of energy consumption, etc. with their account should be reviewed and clarified. The study is based on the use of such methods as a systematic approach, generalization and comparison, the principle of "all other things being equal". A number of provisions are hypothetical in nature (for example, the price of the total energy of a firm can be used in determining the selling price of a specific product).

Technical and economic aspects of synthetic liquid fuel and electric power combined production within one energy-technology installation (ETI) are considered. The range of prices for alternative liquid fuel (ALF) produced by the installations, depending on the cost of consumed fuel, price of supplied electric power and level of capital investments, has been ascertained. The studies made suggest the conclusion that combined production of dimethyl ether is more efficient from the energy and economic viewpoints than methanol production. Besides, a certain level of oil prices was identified, its excess implying that production of ALF, i.e. dimethyl ether, will be more economically efficient than production of motor fuel from oil.

В работе предложен возможный вариант решения проблемы дальнейшего стимулирования развития нетрадиционной и возобновляемой энергетики в условиях Украины. Рассмотрены материалы применимые к альтернативным источникам энергии, которые сооружаются при индивидуальных строениях.
The paper suggests a possible solution to the problem of further stimulating the development of unconventional and renewable energy in the conditions of Ukraine. Materials considered applicable to alternative energy sources that are constructed under individual structures are considered.

This study analyzes consumers' behavioral responsiveness to changes in price and policy regarding residential electricity consumption, using a hybrid method of econometric analyses and energy market simulations with the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). First, this study estimates price elasticities of residential electricity demand with the most recent Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) data, collected in 2005, employing a conventional econometric model and a discrete/continuous choice model. Prior to the NEMS experiments with price shocks and consumers' behavioral features, this study uses NEMS to examine how energy policies would affect changes in retail electricity price in the future. When climate policies are implemented nationally, electricity prices are estimated to increase by 17% in 2030 with a carbon cap and trade initiatives and by 4% with Renewable Electricity Standards (RES). The short-run elasticity of demand estimated from the 2005 RECS is found to be in a range of -0.81 ~ -0.66, which is more elastic than the current NEMS assumption of -0.15. The 2005 RECS dataset details information about American households' energy consumption. This rich source of micro-level data complements the existing econometric analysis based on time series data. Electricity price (either census-division average price or household average price), annual income and number of rooms are found to be three major determinants of the level of electricity consumption. The difference in short-run price elasticity leads to a difference in social welfare estimates of energy policies and energy market forecasts. This study suggests that the estimate of social welfare loss caused by electricity price increase is overestimated if the elasticity is assumed to be smaller than the actual responsiveness. Supposing that 1) the short-run elasticity of -0.66 reflects the actual consumers' responsiveness to price changes in the present and future and 2) retail electricity prices permanently increase by 10%, the welfare loss caused by the price increases would be estimated 0.9 billion dollars less than the current estimates with the elasticity of -0.15. This result suggests that if people are assumed to be more elastic to price signals, the time it takes for a policy to accomplish its goal could be shorter. In addition to assessing potential savings expected from consumers' behavioral changes with the concept of price elasticity of demand in neoclassical economic theory, this study reviews economic and non-economic theories about behavioral features of energy consumers and discusses how existing information programs could be improved.

Human misuse of environmental assets especially energy is causing environmental degradation, which hampers social and economic welfare for present as well as for future generations. A worldwide shift to sustainable energy sources is one of the required actions to solve the problem. Electricity from sustainable energy sources is called green electricity and has arose as one of the most motivating tools for developing the sustainable energy market. This has resulted in the restructuring of Germany's energy industry with a dramatic change in energy use in electricity. The change has been aided by the German renewable energies act (EEG), which is been criticized for its resulting high green electricity prices which consumers have to pay. Green electricity prices seem to call for more consumers' attention than threats posed by conventional energy because only a small fraction of energy is sold as green electricity neccesitating the rethinking of the energy market. Due to the need for future research on more factors influencing consumers buying behavior in the green electricity market, this thesis seeks to investigate the following research questions: Is green electricity price the major influencing factor for its market unattractivess? Does the concern about price really calls for more attention than environmental concerns? It specifically aims to describe German consumers' perceptions of factors influencing their green electricity buying behavior. The research methodology involves the use of secondary and primary data. The secondary data gives a background knowledge of Germany and its energy historical development, Germany's sustainable energy strategies and strategies for market development (electricity feed-in-tariffs, the renewable energy act and problems), green electricity marketing, consumers' purchasing behavior and factors influencing this behavior. The primary data is gotten through a questionnare survey and analysed using both excel and the statistical package for social sciences. Evidence is taken from Germany because of its ambitious goals of 20-30% green electricity by 2020 and 80-100% by 2050. The result of the study shows that, although price is the most influencing factor in choosing an electricity supplier and also calls for more attention than environmental concerns, it's not the major hindering factor for the green electricity market unattractivess. Most German electricity consumers (42%) have no idea about green electricity prices. In comparison to competitors, 27% of them assume the prices are higher while 31% say the prices are thesame and even lower. All green electricity consumers confirm the prices are moderate and even cheaper. Even when prices are the same, most respondents gave other reasons like conviniences before environmental friendliness as the first motive for their electricity choice. Despite Germany's ambitous goals, consumers selfinterest and ignorance about green electricity prices remain a problem for the market.

Affordability of energy in the domestic sector is the product of three interrelated factors - level of household income, level of energy bills (which are a product of prices and levels of energy demand, mediated by tariffs and the retail market), and the amount of energy that a household needs to maintain a healthy living environment. This thesis focusses on the factors of affordability which are most relevant to the energy policy which are energy bills and energy efficiency, both of which are considered in the context of household income. Affordability of energy in Great Britain is important for separate, but over-lapping reasons. Firstly, it has important political impacts - as energy prices continue to rise, energy is repeatedly highlighted as one of the biggest financial concerns for households (uSwitch, 2013; YouGov, 2015; DECC, 2014f), leading affordability of energy to become an increasingly political issue (Lockwood, 2016). Secondly, affordability of energy has social implications which stem from the fact that the impact of rising energy bills is felt particularly strongly by those on low incomes and in inefficient homes – the fuel poor. In spite of it being twenty-five years since Brenda Boardman published her first book defining the issue of fuel poverty (Boardman, 1991), millions of households in Great Britain today still cannot afford adequate amounts of energy. This is significant because being able to afford access to basic levels of energy services such as warmth and light is essential for maintaining physical and mental health (Harrington et al., 2005; Stockton and Campbell, 2011). Thirdly, affordability has important implications for design of the energy system –a system focussed on minimising long-term costs, both through micro-scale features such as efficient network revenue regulation which keep costs down on a year-by-year basis, and macro-scale aspects such as through the development of a low-demand, highly flexible energy system which has the potential to bring costs down in the long term (Sanders et al., 2016), is likely to differ from one which in which affordability is less of a focus, or only a focus over the short term. This thesis responds to a gap in the literature in relation to the role that governance plays in affecting levels of affordability of energy for domestic consumers in Great Britain. It examines the impact of governance on energy prices and tariffs, and the impact of governance on energy efficiency of the housing stock in Great Britain. Both of these are examined in the context of levels of household income. Greater insight is gained by examining the impact of the energy governance structure in Denmark on Danish domestic energy efficiency standards, which are widely accepted to be very good (IEA, 2011). 7 This thesis makes use of existing academic and policy literature in tandem with data from fifty-six interviews with individuals from across the energy sectors in Great Britain and Denmark. The governance structure of energy in Great Britain is shown to be, on balance, not supportive of delivering affordable energy to domestic consumers. A number of specific issues within the current governance structure in Great Britain are identified. These include the presence of a limiting narrative, whereby policymakers consider affordability to be achieved principally through delivery of low prices; insufficient institutional capacity within OFGEM to keep network prices low, and monitor suppliers’ costs and profits; lack of wholesale market transparency; an anti-interventionist ideology leading to weak energy efficiency requirements for new-build and private rental properties; suppliers as poor executors of energy efficiency policy; weak demand-side interests; tariffs designed around the needs of suppliers, not consumers; an over-reliance on an uncompetitive retail market; a lack of institutional capacity amongst policy makers regarding energy efficiency, and network regulation; and weak consumer representation. A number of recommendations are put forward, including the fostering of a new narrative centred on energy efficiency; the redesign of tariffs to better protect the interests of consumers; the reallocation of responsibility for energy efficiency to local authorities; the development of greater institutional capacity among policymakers; the support for a more interventionist ideology supporting use of regulation; financial support for energy efficiency retrofit; the fostering of greater policy stability; development of new tariff structures; and the formation of a new consumer representative. Overall this thesis demonstrates that affordability of energy in unlikely to be delivered to domestic consumers in Great Britain unless significant changes are made to the governance structure of the energy sector.

Mestrado em Economia
O custo das licenças de emissão de dióxido de carbono é um custo de oportunidade para as industrias afetadas, uma vez que essas licenças de emissão podem ser transacionadas no mercado. Particularmente no sector elétrico esta questão tem despertado a atenção do público, devido à possibilidade de incluir este custo de oportunidade no preço da eletricidade, gerando lucros adicionais para as centrais. Para avaliar a existência desta passagem de custos no recém criado Mercado Ibérico de Eletricidade, recolhemos dados sobre os preços das licenças de emissão de CO2, do combustível e da eletricidade, e utilizamos o modelo do vetor autorregressivo (VAR). Concluímos que há evidencia de passagem de custos do CO2 para o preço da eletricidade, sendo este ligeiramente mais elevado em Portugal do que em Espanha. A passagem de custos do CO2 parece ser maior no pico da carga do que na carga base.
The cost of carbon emission allowances is an opportunity cost for industries affected, since these allowances can be traded in the market. Particularly in the electrical sector this issue has triggered public attention, due to the possibility of including this opportunity cost in the electricity prices, generating windfall profits for utilities. To assess the existence of this pass-through in the newly created Iberian Electricity Market, we collect data on prices of electricity, fuel and CO2 allowances, and we use a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model. We conclude that there is evidence of CO2 cost pass-through to the electricity price, being a slightly higher in Portugal than in Spain. The CO2 cost pass-through still seems to be higher at peak load than at base load.

This dissertation explores the problem of energy estimation in supervised Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM). NILM refers to a set of techniques used to estimate the electricity consumed by individual loads in a building from measurements of the total electrical consumption. Most commonly, NILM works by first attributing any significant change in the total power consumption (also known as an event) to a specific load and subsequently using these attributions (i.e. the labels for the events) to estimate energy for each load. For this last step, most proposed solutions in the field impart simplifying assumptions to make the problem more tractable. This has severely limited the practicality of the proposed solutions. To address this knowledge gap, we present a framework for creating appliance models based on classification labels and aggregate power measurements that can help relax many of these assumptions. Within the framework, we model the problem of utilizing a sequence of event labels to generate energy estimates as a broader class of problems that has two major components (i) With the understanding that the labels arise from a process with distinct states and state transitions, we estimate the underlying Finite State Machine (FSM) model that most likely generated the observed sequence (ii) We allow for the observed sequence to have errors, and present an error correction algorithm to detect and correct them. We test the framework on data from 43 appliances collected from 19 houses and find that it improves errors in energy estimates when compared to the case with no correction in 19 appliances by a factor of 50, leaves 17 appliances unchanged, and negatively impacts 6 appliances by a factor of 1.4. This approach of utilizing event sequences to estimate energy has implications in virtual metering of appliances as well. In a case study, we utilize this framework in order to substitute the need of plug-level sensors with cheap and easily deployable contacless sensors, and find that on the 6 appliances virtually metered using magnetic field sensors, the inferred energy values have an average error of 10:9%.

In this work we investigate the effect of energy (electricity) market integration in Europe and its effects on electricity prices and efficiency improvements in electricity producing firms. We first describe at detail the electricity sector, the role of electricity markets, the main characteristics of electricity as a commodity as well as the main features of this particular and strategic sector, we speak about the evolution of consumption of electricity in developed countries and particularly in Spain. In the second chapter, we address extensively the most recent round of reforms approved for the European electricity markets, known as the third energy package. We speak of the actors that were relevant for such approval their preferred outcomes and the final result of the bargaining process. To do this we use qualitative methods to venture beyond description of what happened and to explain the conditions that rendered the entire process be favourable for the European Commission proposal of reform. In the third chapter of the dissertation we deal with the issue of electricity prices in European countries. We propose a group of variables as drivers of electricity prices, we discuss the relationship that these variables might have with electricity prices and we conduct an analysis in which we set up a model to test the possible relation of these drivers with the prices paid by industrial and household costumers. In particular we test the relationship that might exist between the suppliers’ ownership and the prices charged to final consumers, as well as the quantity of primary energy available and the exchanges of electricity or the concentration of the electricity markets and the amount of renewable energy supplied in the different European countries. To test our model and the relationship of the proposed drivers with net prices we constructed a panel data that covers the years from 2001 to 2010 a few years before and after the second and the third energy packages, the last major reform packages in European countries. Finally in Chapter 4 we focus on dealing with what we consider to be one of the most important consequences of liberalizing the electricity sector, which are the possible changes in the firms’ efficiency. Particularly we focus in internal efficiency, that is, the more efficient ways that power plants may find to continue with their activity in a more competitive context. Said in a different way, due the increasing competition because of the liberalization measures, producers of electricity must adjust their production methods to keep been competitive or even gain competitiveness, this, in turn, is connected with gains in consumers welfare. In this case we first make a review of the best and most used methods to assess changes in the performance (efficiency) of firms, we set up a database that takes in account three different years of 130 power plants in eighteen European countries, sixteen of them European Union members and two non-EU members but important partners in what concerns to electricity markets (Norway and Switzerland); the three years taken in account are 2004, 2009 and 2013, the database is not a panel data, but observations made in three different points in time to tests each of the years while the results are used to calculate the Malmquist indexes that will give tell us how firms move relative to the frontier and if the frontier is actually moving.

This thesis focuses on the development of a forecasting model for short- to medium-term electricity spot prices, based on modelling the dynamics of the supply and demand functions. It is found that the equilibrium assumption frequently adopted in electricity price models does not always hold; to overcome this problem, a notional demand process derived from the market clearing condition is proposed. Not only is this demand process able to capture all the price-affecting factors in one variable, but it also allows the equilibrium assumption to be satisfied and a spot price model to be built, using any appropriate form of hypothetical supply function. In addition, this thesis presents a model for approximating and modelling the bid stacks by capturing the points that govern their shape and location. Integrating these two models provides a realistic model that has a mean absolute percentage error of approximately 19% and 24% for week- and month-ahead forecasts respectively, when applied to the New South Wales (NSW) half-hourly electricity spot prices. Additionally, the density forecasting evaluation method proposed by Diebold et al. (1998) is employed in the thesis to assess the performance of the model. Besides the development of a spot price model, a two-part empirical study is made of the prices of NSW electricity futures contracts. The first part of the study develops a method based on the principle of certainty equivalence, which enables the market utility function to be recovered from a set of futures market quotes. The method is tested with two different sets of simulated data and works as expected. However, it is unable to obtain useful results from the NSW market quotes due to the poor data quality. The second part uses a regression method to investigate the relationship between futures prices and the descriptive statistics of the underlying spot prices. The result suggests that futures prices in NSW are linear combinations of the median and volatility of the final payoff.

We analyze empirically the role played by energy inflation as a determinant of downward corrections in house prices. Using a dataset for 18 OECD economies spanning the last four decades, we identify periods of downward house price adjustment and estimate conditional logit models to measure the effect of energy inflation on the probability of these house price corrections after controlling for other relevant macroeconomic variables. Our results give strong evidence that increases in energy price inflation raise the probability of such corrective periods taking place. This phenomenon could be explained by various channels: through the adverse effects of energy prices on economic activity and income reducing the demand for housing; through the particular impact on construction and operation costs and their effects on the supply and demand of housing; through the reaction of monetary policy on inflation withdrawing liquidity and further reducing demand; through improving attractiveness of commodity versus housing investment on asset markets; or through a lagging impact of common factors on both variables, such as economic growth. Our results contribute to the understanding of the pass-through of oil price shocks to financial markets and imply that energy price inflation should serve as a leading indicator for the analysis of macro-financial risks. (authors' abstract)

CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICO
Os preços de energia elétrica, insumo básico para todo o Modelo Setorial, constituem uma das maiores incertezas do setor. Estas incertezas abrangem todos os elementos formadores de preços: a oferta, a demanda e as regras de mercado, tornando muitas vezes difícil ao agente a avaliação concreta e precisa do processo da formação de preços e do impacto que a variação de um dos elementos do processo produz no resultado final. O objetivo deste trabalho é apresentar a estrutura de formação de preços no mercado energético brasileiro de forma sistematizada, avaliando a composição das variáveis que afetam esta estrutura: a demanda por consumo, a expansão do sistema e as disponibilidades energéticas. O mercado é modelado em todos os seus detalhes físicos, e o cálculo é realizado a partir de todo o arcabouço regulatório, incluindo a reprodução do modelo de operação ótima responsável pelos preços de energia. Descreve-se inicialmente um modelo de previsão de demanda por subsistema, utilizando-se técnicas de Teoria de Análise Funcional. Focaliza-se em seguida o suprimento futuro de energia no país a partir da expansão da oferta. Finalmente, utiliza-se uma simulação da operação ótima do sistema a partir da reprodução dos resultados do modelo utilizado no setor - o Newave - a partir de uma implementação própria desenvolvida especialmente no escopo deste trabalho. De posse dos possíveis cenários futuros, pode-se mensurar o impacto que a variação de cada elemento formador (demanda, expansão e afluências) tem sobre os custos de energia. É possível observar que as incertezas nestas variáveis podem gerar grandes impactos nos custos marginais e, conseqüentemente, nos custos futuros de energia elétrica.
Energy Prices, essential input for the Sectorial Model, consist on the biggest uncertainties of the Electric Sector. These uncertainties enclose all price elements: the supply, the demand and the market rules, making sometimes difficult for the agents to evaluate the price process and the impact that the variation of each process element can produce on the result. The objective is to present Brazilian price process in a structuralized way, evaluating the variables composition that affects this structure: the demand, the electric system expansion and the energy supply availability. The market is modeled in all its physical details, and the calculation is done into the regulatory environment, including a reproduction of the optimal operation model responsible for energy prices. First, a demand forecast model is described, based on Functional Analysis Theory. Then, the focus is on the energy future supply, analyzing the supply expansion in Brazil. Finally, an optimal operation system is simulated, reproducing the sector model (Newave) results from an implementation developed in this work. From these possible future settings, each element (demand, expansion and energy supply availability) variation impact on energy prices can be measured. The simulations show that uncertainties about these variables can have big impacts on marginal costs and, consequently, on the energy future prices.

AbstractWhile crude oil is one of the biggest markets in the world the consumer has little interest in the raw material that comes out of the ground. It is the refined products that can be extracted from the crude oil that the end-user wants to know about. This chapter explains which hydrocarbons are mixed up inside a barrel of crude oil and how the refining process separates, treats and upgrades the composite to extract the usable products needed. It looks at whole crude properties and what these mean for handling and transporting the oil. It defines the different types of refinery processes, from primary distillation to reforming right through to cracking and coking. It describes the range of products that result from refining crude oil and the use to which each product is put.

AbstractThe spread of demand-response (DR) programs in Europe is a slow but steady process to optimize the use of renewable energy in different sectors including manufacturing. A demand-response program promotes changes of electricity consumption patterns at the end consumer side to match the availability of renewable energy sources through price changes or incentives. This research develops a system that aims to engage manufacturing power consumers through price- and incentive-based DR programs. The system works on data from heterogeneous systems at both supply and demand sides, which are linked through a semantic middleware, instead of centralized data integration. An ontology is used as the integration information model of the semantic middleware. This chapter explains the concept of constructing the ontology by utilizing relational database to ontology mapping techniques, reusing existing ontologies such as OpenADR, SSN, SAREF, etc., and applying ontology alignment methods. Machine learning approaches are developed to forecast both the power generated from renewable energy sources and the power demanded by manufacturing consumers based on their processes. The forecasts are the groundworks to calculate the dynamic electricity price introduced for the DR program. This chapter presents different neural network architectures and compares the experiment results. We compare the results of Deep Neural Network (DNN), Long Short-Term Memory Network (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and Hybrid architectures. This chapter focuses on the initial phase of the research where we focus on the ontology development method and machine learning experiments using power generation datasets.

AbstractSwitzerland and the European Union (EU) face similar challenges when it comes to the decarbonisation and securing of energy supply. Both lack sufficient domestic energy resources, apart from nuclear energy. But nuclear energy has become controversial after the nuclear meltdown accident at Fukushima, Japan, in 2011. Without reconsidering nuclear energy as a future energy resource, the cooperation in the energy market between the EU and Switzerland becomes even more vital for securing energy supply. While in the past, Switzerland has fulfilled an important function in securing energy supply in neighbouring EU Member States, lately, the EU has provided for its own governance for emergency situations. However, Switzerland will maintain its function as an interface in the electricity sector. This is even more true, since the new focus on renewable energies fosters the demand for flexible cross-boundary solutions. An electricity agreement between Switzerland and the EU might provide a stable legal framework for these developments. The price to pay for Switzerland will be a further opening of the market, offering the private consumer a choice of energy providers. The good news for Swiss strategies for promoting renewable energies is that EU Member States are still allowed to take a flexible approach towards national promotion measures, especially in designing them to their territory. Therefore, the cooperation between Switzerland and the EU offers some advantages in terms of flexibility in the quest for security of supply while fighting climate change.

Profitability of water distribution activity depends largely on the relationships between operational capability and service costs, related to supplier’s performance, volume of distributed water and effective operating costs. The main variables that influence the total selling price are required investment value, specific consumption of electrical energy for pumping power, unit price of the electrical energy and total volume of monthly consumed water billed. The selection of rehabilitation and modernization measures must rely on market studies results that appropriately establish the quantities of water that may be distributed and billed. Present and future water requirements will be determined based on the analysis of actual operation data and on estimation of future trends in water consumption on national and international levels. The optimization calculation will use two target functions: total maximum efficiency and total electric power consumption required for transport of each cubic meter of supplied water, and cubic meter of sewage water, respectively. The mathematical methods may be improved by taking into account all active consumers in the network with simultaneous water requirements, at each moment of the day. Using several original mathematical algorithms, authors developed a computer program that calculates the functional parameters of the ensemble pumping station – hydrophore – pipe distribution network, as well as the available consumer parameters. This may be accomplished at each moment in time, depending on the number of active consumers simultaneously connected to the supply network, in the hypothesis of a minimum price of cubic meter of pumped water. This paper proposes a solution of the problem of reducing production costs for supplied domestic water, which directly affects the reduction of the electric power consumption.

Last two decades witnessed increasingly volatile international markets with the many financial crises. Concurrently, volatility in energy prices and energy markets cause various adverse impacts on both national and world economies. Especially this volatility affected emerging markets and increased the fragility of the emerging economies. Because of the adverse impacts of this volatility, understanding the price behavior and impact of volatility of energy prices on economy became crucial for every economic agent in the economy including policy makers in the governments, consumers, and producers. The relationship between energy prices and macroeconomic performance has been studied widely as a consequence its long term macroeconomic impacts to world economies. Differently, the aim of this study is analyzing the effect of energy price volatility on macroeconomic indicators of Turkey. For that purpose, we employed a GARCH model to investigate effect of energy price volatility on macroeconomic performance for Turkey from 2002 to 2016. We use various energy prices and macroeconomic indicators data for the period from January 2002 to December 2016, obtained from the IFS and CBRT-EDDS. By applying GARCH methodology to various energy prices and macroeconomic indicators, we contribute to the understanding of price volatility in energy markets, and suggest policies that would be of use to policy makers in the governments, consumers, and producers.

The price of natural gas exceeded $15/MM Btu in December 2005 compared to $6/MM Btu just one year ago! It was also just $2/MM Btu in the 1990’s. Crude oil prices exceeded $70/barrel in 2005 compared to $45/barrel just one year ago! To put this into perspective, a 600 HP boiler operating at a 50% average load for 12 hours per day, 365 days per year would have consumed $321,800 in natural gas one year ago but will consume $804,490 in natural per year at today’s cost! The increased cost of fuel has affected operational costs for all boilers regardless of size, age, or manufacturer. The US dependence on foreign oil and natural gas, as well as the escalating energy demands of China, India, and other countries will likely drive energy prices higher in the future. This increase in the cost of fuel has driven responsible boiler manufacturers to develop new products or modify existing ones in order to reduce energy consumption. Major developments have been made in the past few years which improve boiler efficiency, offer innovative heat recovery systems, and integrate high tech controls into boiler systems. This paper will address the developments in boiler design, control systems, and heat recovery systems which all contribute to energy savings. Paper published with permission.

Energy is not only indispensable element of everyday life, but also underlies industrialization and manufacturing. Energy and manufacturing have become integral parts with the importance of mechanization since the Industrial Revolution. As a result of this emerging situation, businesses, have become sensitive energy and energy prices. For this reason, changes in energy prices directly affect businesses and are thought to have effects on fluctuations in stock prices. Changes in the prices of primary energy sources directly or indirectly affect capital markets. In energy importer countries including Turkey, high energy prices cause an increase in current account deficit and decrease in real national income by increasing the amount of energy imports. In addition, high energy prices lead to cost-based inflation increases as they directly affect raw material prices used in production. All these factors indirectly affect capital markets. Direct effect of energy price changes on the capital market is explained by the fact that energy is an indispensable input in industrial production. In cases where the energy price increase is not reflected to the consumer, the profitability of the enterprise is decreasing. A decrease in profitability affects firm's stock price as well. The aim of this study is to reveal the relationship between sector indices in the Stock Exchange Istanbul (BIST) and oil price changes. Weekly data set for the period for 2006:1 - 2016:4 is used. Johannes co-integration method is used to measure long term relationship in the study.

The three fossil fuels, coal, oil and natural gas, are the major and depletable energy resources of the world. By end of the twentieth century, approximately 85% of the total primary energy consumed globally came from the three fossil fuels. In the last two years or so oil prices have almost doubled, whereas, price of natural gas has also increased at a faster rate. Indications and predictions are that these prices will stay for years to come because of imbalance in supply and demand and political instability in the Middle East and Africa regions. In such a dynamic energy market, companies dealing with energy resources, energy related equipment suppliers and service providers will face a stiffer competition. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the global energy market emphasizing the following key issues: the status of proven fossil fuels reserves which are recoverable with the today’s technology; trends of production and consumption of major fuels; trends of electric power generation and industrial gas turbine market for power generation; and emissions related issues. A brief discussion on gas monetization and IGCC (Integrated Gasification and Combined Cycle) technology is also included. In addition to presenting an in-depth analysis of the energy related data for the last 2–3 decades, projections are provided for the next two decades (until 2025). The presented data will be useful in identifying world’s areas and countries where potentials for energy related businesses are expected to grow in the coming years. The presented study is a timely topic of discussion in presence of a highly volatile energy market and companion to the theme of the Turbo Expo 2006 “The Global Market and Cooperative Ventures”.

Environmental concerns, global warming and fossil fuel prices are creating a shift in the expectations of consumers and industries to move toward renewable energy resources. However, the inability to control the output of renewable resources, like wind and solar, results in operational challenges in power systems. The operational challenges of renewable resources can be met by energy storage systems. The energy storage systems scheduling can be used to control the effect of intermittent renewable energy resources. Furthermore, energy storage systems can be used for ancillary services, peak reduction, and mitigating contingencies in the distribution and transmission networks [1]. Distributed photovoltaic (DPV) rooftop panels are considered as renewable energy resources in this paper. Depending on the DPV size and solar irradiation, DPV adoption can create problems for the distribution network. In addition, utility companies have to pay different prices for electricity during different times of the day due to the dynamic electricity market. Therefore, the DPV adoption can be controlled with the help of real-time electricity price and the load profile. Facing these challenges, this paper presents an operational optimization algorithm for a Distributed Energy Storage (DES) system. The DES system presents a fleet of batteries connected to distribution transformers. The DES can be used for withholding DPV power before it is bid into the market. Withholding DPV generation represents a gaming method to realize higher revenues due to the time varying cost of electricity. Energy storage systems may be used to control DPV power variation and thus help distribution network operations [2]. The objective of this paper is to present a DES optimal economic control system to improve the DPV adoption in power distribution networks. The control system decisions depend on the load profiles, and the real-time Locational Marginal Price (LMP). Economic operation of the DES is a complex problem because of the time dependency of the battery capacity (where sufficient energy reserves must be maintained in case of power loss), the solar irradiation uncertainty, and the real-time electricity price variability. The mathematical approach used is the Discrete Ascent Optimal Programming (DAOP) algorithm. An advantage of DAOP is its assurance of convergence after a finite number of computational iterations.

Petroleum-based conventional fuels dominate the transportation sector due to simple economics. Per unit of energy, few fuels can rival gasoline and diesel in terms of total cost of ownership to the consumer. While some fuels, such as natural gas and electricity, offer lower fuel costs and/or higher vehicle efficiencies than conventional fuels, the fuel price differentials may not be sufficient to offset the higher initial costs of the vehicles, especially if petroleum prices are low. Even when total costs of ownership are similar or slightly lower for alternative fuels than conventional fuels, differences in attributes, such as vehicle range, fueling time, cargo space, vehicle availability, and fuel availability, and consumer loss aversion suggest that more substantial differences in costs are required before consumers are willing to adopt the alternatives. In order for the transportation sector to achieve greater energy sustainability, the traditional economic paradigm for the vehicle purchase decision must expand to incorporate the true benefits of alternatives to conventional fuels, namely the societal benefits of increased energy security, lower criteria pollutant emissions, and lower greenhouse gas emissions. These benefits are not purely economic and yet are crucial to the future of transportation. To capture these benefits in the economic scheme, the societal costs of transportation fuels to the U.S. have been monetized according to measurable impacts. For energy security, the costs are tied to decreased economic output, loss of national gross product, economic strain and volatility, oil supply shocks and price spikes, supply disruption, and import costs. For criteria pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions, the costs are tied to human health impacts, property damage, loss of agricultural productivity, and destruction of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. These societal costs then applied to the use of specific fuels in two representative market segments, representing distinct applications, duty cycles, fuel consumption, and vehicle lifetime. Incorporating the monetized societal costs of transportation fuels in the total costs of ownership enables a fair comparison that reflects the benefits of alternatives to conventional fuels. As a result, these societal costs provide a justifiable framework for a real discussion on incentives and the direction of energy policy, beyond the mere objective of low fuel prices that has pervaded policy discussions to date.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has some of the highest electricity and water consumption rates in the world. A driving factor is the presence of electricity and water subsidies and their impact on the investment in efficiency, technology adoption, and implementation of best practices. Decades of subsidization have made Gulf Cooperation Council businesses some of the world’s most inefficient energy and water consumers, and there is a growing consensus in the UAE that a comprehensive conservation plan is needed. However, for any comprehensive conservation plan to be successful, it must include tariff reform as a cornerstone. The social and political issues associated with tariff reform are not trivial. A comprehensive approach needs to be developed and implemented while energy prices are low and the initial impact on customers can be minimized.

Around 40 percent of the energy consumed in Switzerland can be attributed to the construction and running of the country’s building stock. Buildings and settlements will thus play a prominent role in the transformation of our energy system. Numerous steps for the future have already been initiated – but there still remains a great deal to do.

Population growth, increasing prosperity and changing consumer habits globally are increasing demand for consumer electronics. Further to this, rapid changes in technology, falling prices and consumer appetite for better products have exacerbated e-waste management challenges and seen millions of tons of electronic devices become obsolete. This rapid literature review collates evidence from academic, policy focussed and grey literature on e-waste management in Africa. This report provides an overview of constitutes e-waste, the environmental and health impacts of e-waste, of the barriers to effective e-waste management, the opportunities associated with effective e-waste management and of the limited literature available that estimate future volumes of e-waste. Africa generated a total of 2.9 million Mt of e-waste, or 2.5 kg per capita, the lowest regional rate in the world. Africa’s e-waste is the product of Local and imported Sources of Used Electronic and Electrical Equipment (UEEE). Challenges in e-waste management in Africa are exacerbated by a lack of awareness, environmental legislation and limited financial resources. Proper disposal of e-waste requires training and investment in recycling and management technology as improper processing can have severe environmental and health effects. In Africa, thirteen countries have been identified as having a national e-waste legislation/policy.. The main barriers to effective e-waste management include: Insufficient legislative frameworks and government agencies’ lack of capacity to enforce regulations, Infrastructure, Operating standards and transparency, illegal imports, Security, Data gaps, Trust, Informality and Costs. Aspirations associated with energy transition and net zero are laudable, products associated with these goals can become major contributors to the e-waste challenge. The necessary wind turbines, solar panels, electric car batteries, and other "green" technologies require vast amounts of resources. Further to this, at the end of their lifetime, they can pose environmental hazards. An example of e-waste associated with energy transitions can be gleaned from the solar power sector. Different types of solar power cells need to undergo different treatments (mechanical, thermal, chemical) depending on type to recover the valuable metals contained. Similar issues apply to waste associated with other energy transition technologies. Although e-waste contains toxic and hazardous metals such as barium and mercury among others, it also contains non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminium and precious metals such as gold and copper, which if recycled could have a value exceeding 55 billion euros. There thus exists an opportunity to convert existing e-waste challenges into an economic opportunity.