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Автор: Grafiati

Опубліковано: 30 травня 2022

Оновлено: 31 травня 2022

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Статті в журналах з теми "Model of dynamics of the economic system"

Milić Beran, Ivona. "SYSTEM-DYNAMIC MODELING OF THE IMPACT OF SOCIAL CAPITAL ON ECONOMIC GROWTH." DIEM: Dubrovnik International Economic Meeting 6, no. 1 (September 2021): 25–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.17818/diem/2021/1.3.

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This paper presents a qualitative and quantitative system-dynamic modeling of the impact of social capital on economic growth. Social capital is the most problematic of all the concepts that determine progress. On a broad conceptual level, there is agreement about the importance of social capital, which has been used to explain differences in progress among nations with similar natural, human and physical capital. Recent research suggests that it is more important to include an explanation of the interaction of economic actors and their organization when measuring progress than to measure progress without the influence of social capital. The purpose of this paper is to develop a system-dynamic model of the impact of social capital on economic growth that will enable better understanding and management of social capital. In order to build a system dynamics model, the paper will: provide an analysis and overview of social capital and system dynamics; develop a system dynamics structural and mental-verbal model of the impact of social capital on economic growth; and develop a mathematical model of economic growth. This will provide a practical insight into the dynamic behavior of the observed system, i.e., analyzing economic growth and observing the mutual correlation between individual parameters. Keywords: social capital, economic growth, system dynamics, structural model

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Rozman, Črtomir, Miroljub Kljajić, and Karmen Pažek. "Sugar Beet Production: A System Dynamics Model and Economic Analysis." Organizacija 48, no. 3 (August 1, 2015): 145–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/orga-2015-0017.

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Abstract Background and Purpose: The sugar beet is the main field crop used for sugar production in the temperate climatic zone. Since investment in sugar beet industry are long term and ireversible the decision support and economic analysis are required in order to maximise investment returns. Methodology: A system dynamics methodology was chosen to model the impacts of regional sugar factory investments. We present the basic concepts of system dynamics (SD) models and their development in the case of sugar beet production and processing systems. Sugar beet economics are also analyzed using the static technological economic simulation model. Results: The simulation provides answers to strategic questions related to the total sugar beet production and processing system and will be used for the simulation of different scenarios for sugar production and their impact on economic and environmental parameters at an aggregate level. Furthermore, the feasibility analysis of sugar beet production revealed that at the current price and intensity levels (yields), we can expect profitable sugar beet production for both white sugar and ethanol. Conclusion: Preliminary results show that under expected production parameters the sugar beet processing and production would be economically feasible.

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Liu, Wei, and Yaolin Jiang. "Modeling and dynamics of an ecological-economic model." International Journal of Biomathematics 12, no. 03 (April 2019): 1950030. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s179352451950030x.

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In this paper, an eco-economic model with harvesting on biological population is established, which takes the form of a differential-algebra system. The impact of the economic profit from harvesting upon the dynamics of the model is studied. By using a suitable parameterization for the differential-algebra system, we derive an equivalent parameterized system which gives the stability results for the positive equilibrium point of our model. Moreover, based on the parameterized system as well as the approaches of normal form and formal series, the conditions on the Hopf bifurcation and the stability of center are obtained. Several numerical simulations for demonstrating the theoretical results are also presented. Lastly, according to the dynamical analysis, we provide a threshold value for the economic profit, which can maintain the sustainable development of our eco-economic system.

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Liu, De Jun. "Dynamic System Study on Economic Development and its Causal Feedback Relations in Economic System." Applied Mechanics and Materials 437 (October 2013): 950–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.437.950.

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In order to study the relationship of human capital and economic development, we establish the system dynamics model of human capital and economic development. According to the analysis of the system dynamics causal feedback between human capital and economic development, we build a system dynamics flow chart of human capital and economic development by using system dynamics software Vensim languages and tools, and we simulate the development trend of each index variable in human capital and economic for the future.

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Kim, Deokmin. "A Nonlinear Economic Growth Model: A System Dynamics Perspective." Korean System Dynamics Review 19, no. 1 (March 31, 2018): 31–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.32588/ksds.19.1.2.

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Żukowski, Paweł. "Podstawy budowy modelu dynamiki systemu zarządzania oraz jego symulacja w organizacji gospodarczej (na podstawie metodologii dynamiki systemów J.W. Forrestera)." Przedsiębiorczość - Edukacja 8 (January 1, 2012): 331–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.24917/20833296.8.24.

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In the work chapter, after discussing issues related to systems thinking, mental models, system dynamics and procedure of modeling, presents the socio-mathematical description of the dynamics of economic organization management system based on system dynamics methodology developed by Jay W. Forrester, as a creative concept used for researching system thinking. The purpose of this description is to illustrate the methodology and characteristics the construction this type of that models. This description is a simply way represent any economic organization (production), which show the organizational units (departments and production department), the flows of orders, the streams of information about materials and prefabricates, final products and their storage and sales. Built model of system dynamics allow management to analyze the causes of fluctuations In the processes of economic organization changes observed at the urgen changes to take new orders for final products. The simulation made on the basic experimentally constructed model revealed certain properties characteristic of the dynamic behavior of economic organization (formation of the characteristic and interesting letter size) at its manufacturing operations in case of adoption of new orders for final products.

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Olson, David L., Paraskeva Dimitrova‐Davidova, and Ivan Stoykov. "Systems dynamics model of a transition firm." Managerial Finance 31, no. 3 (March 1, 2005): 67–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/03074350510769578.

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Eastern European countries are undergoing a transition from centralized economic planning to more open economic systems. A team of Bulgarian and U.S. researchers have collaborated to study this problem, using a real Bulgarian winery as the focus of their research. System dynamics modeling was selected as a tool to provide better understanding of management issues. A framework for future objective research, and as a pedagogical tool. This system dynamics model generates output on a number of measures. This paper presents initial output from the model, reporting profit ability, risk, and market share measures. These multiple measures create the need for multiple criteria analysis. Three multiple criteria techniques are demonstrated, and their value in the system dynamics simulation modeling process is discussed.

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McDonald, Nicola J., and Garry W. McDonald. "Towards a Dynamic Equilibrium-Seeking Model of a Closed Economy." Systems 8, no. 4 (November 4, 2020): 42. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/systems8040042.

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Economics has long been concerned with the development of tools to help understand and describe the interactions among economic actors including the circular flow of economic resources. This paper expands our available toolkit of models, by describing a novel dynamic equilibrium-seeking model of a closed economy. The model retains many of the key features of state-of-the-art Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models including economic interdependence, input substitution, nested production functions, and so on. A distinguishing feature of this model is that it adopts price-related balancing feedback loops that simulate the self-regulating behaviour of a dynamic economic system. Our modelling shows not only equilibrium states (as per conventional CGE models), but the transition path toward an often-changing equilibrium. This facilitates the investigation of out-of-equilibrium dynamics and behaviour adaptation typical of largescale disruption events.

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Dai, Yang Chun, and Yin Fang Xu. "The Application of System Dynamics in Urban Master Planning." Applied Mechanics and Materials 644-650 (September 2014): 6097–100. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.644-650.6097.

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In view of the current single analysis method that exist in the overall urban planning, urban planning and social economic development and some problems such as lack of dynamic planning, put forward by using system dynamics theory and the method of combining computer technology, through the establishment of overall urban planning system dynamics model, the quantitative and dynamic study on the overall urban planning and simulation, urban planning and the better way to economic and social harmonious development, and provide more specific to the overall urban planning scheme optimization and scientific basis.

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Omamo, Amos O., Anthony J. Rodrigues, and Wafula J. Muliaro. "A System Dynamics Model of Technology and Society." International Journal of System Dynamics Applications 9, no. 2 (April 2020): 42–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijsda.2020040103.

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Kenya has emerged in recent times as one of the fastest growing telecom markets in the world. There is not a single, widely used paradigm which has synthesised the various schools and theories dealing with technology and society. This article argues that the issue of mobile technology on society is a complex technical and social phenomenon that needs to be understood from both ICT and social science perspectives. This study used the concept of governance socio-techno-economic systems as the theoretical framework. System dynamics are used as both the methodology and tool to model the mobile industry impact on society. The study shows that the increase in social capital intensity is an important source of the economic growth. This increase will strengthen the accelerator mechanism of the economy and creates larger multiplier effects. The increase in social capital intensity can be obtained through managing innovation processes base on the development of education and the R&D capacity of the nation.

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Більше джерел

Дисертації з теми "Model of dynamics of the economic system"

Toni. "Economic model of mine closure and its potential for economic transformation." Doctoral thesis, Technische Universitaet Bergakademie Freiberg Universitaetsbibliothek "Georgius Agricola", 2015. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:105-qucosa-162978.

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In Indonesia, the various mining commodities and the amount of resources and reserves are promising, as evidence there are numerous large-scale mining companies and small-scale mines in operation. In 2014 there were 41 companies that held the CoW (mineral contract of work) and 13 companies active in production; and 76 CCoW (coal contract of work) holders, and 57 companies active in production. As well as this, there are more than a thousand small-scale mining companies active for mining commodities. However, mining commodities provide a resource that is not renewable. This will potentially lead to prolonged problems when mining companies do not adhere to good mining practices, particularly in the closing stages of the mine. Mine closure is the final stage in the process of mining activity. In certain circumstances, closure activities can take a long time and of course can have huge costs. In fact, at this stage, the company is no longer making profit, only incurring costs for the project closure. To prevent problems that may arise after the mine is closed, such as abandoned post-mining land, and the bankruptcy of the company at the end of mining operations, etc., then through specific rules, ie rules of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources No. 18 of 2008, the mining company in Indonesia must provide a certain amount of money as a financial guarantee to finance the planned closure project; it must be approved by the government before entering this phase. However, problems are encountered in practice. The government may become overloaded because they have to quickly make a decision on the closure plan submitted by the company. So a tool is needed that can be used to assess the feasibility as soon as the mine closure plan is proposed by a company, these tools can provide an overview and a variety of options for decision making. In this dissertation methodology was developed to create a systems dynamic model of mine closure. The model developed can be applied to a variety of mining methods and for various mining commodities. The model can be used to determine the closure costs, to choose the closure project-financing scenario, and up to micro and macro economic analysis of mining activities in the region. In the case studies conducted in this dissertation, the best scenario of the mine closure planning is to include the everlasting fund in the form of time deposits, and convert the post-mining land for agriculture. The amount of deposit money is about USD 358,986,500 should be spare at the end of mine production, and the total of mine closure cost to be approximately USD 440,757,384. Agriculture, the economic sector as a substitute for the mining sector, the added value to the GRDP (Gross Regional Domestic Product) is about 0.25 % / a for the province, and 1.68 % for the regency, but the contribution of the mining sector to GRDP was 30% / a at province scale, and 90% / a at regency scale. So that the substitution value is less significant to GRDP growth. However, this scenario is the best scenario among others, due to consideration is the certainty of ecological and economic sustainability. it is the best goal of corporate social responsibility to the environment in the post- mining land.

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Erdogan, Ezgi. "A Complex Dynamical Systems Model Of Education, Research, Employment, And Sustainable Human Development." Master's thesis, METU, 2010. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/3/12612138/index.pdf.

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Economic events of this era reflect the fact that the value of information and technology has surpassed the value of physical production. This motivates countries to focus on increasing the education levels of citizens. However, policy making about education system and its returns requires dynamical analyses in order to be sustainable. The study aims to investigate the dynamic characteristics of a country-wide education system, in particular, that of Turkey. System Dynamics modeling, which is one of the most commonly referred tools for understanding the complex social structures, is used. Our model introduces dynamic relationships among different classes of labor forces with varying education levels, university admissions, research quality, and the investments made in education, research and other sectors. Model experimentation provides new insights into the investment and capacity-related aspects of the education system environment.

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Reda, Hussein Murad Ali. "A theory for national industrial development presented in a system dynamics model." Diss., Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1985. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/76481.

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The dissertation presents a system dynamics model for national industrial development in developing economies. A development system is defined by national boundary, components and activities. The system is represented by ten activity sectors grouped into three functional classes: (1) Two driving sectors comprising population and investment capital sectors; (2) Seven industrial sectors: resources, manufacturing, agriculture, physical infrastructure, services, technology, and social infrastructure; and (3) An outlet sector represented by a trade sector. The model's general theory of industrial development dynamics is described by causal feedback loops. A causal feedback loop consists of two or more interrelated variables where a change in one of the loop's variables causes all others to change as well. The industrial development model's specific structure evolved by applying the causal feedback theory to the system activity sectors. The model is written in DYNAMO, a continuous system, computer simulation language. A prototype model run illustrated the basic development process and possible effects of alternative policies. Several conclusions were drawn regarding sensitive system parameters and various development policies. In addition, three developing-country examples representing low, middle, and high income groups were evaluated. Recommendations about model use and system analysis were presented. The industrial development model is intended to aid during development analysis and planning phases.
Ph. D.

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Metzig, Cornelia. "A Model for a complex economic system." Thesis, Grenoble, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013GRENS038/document.

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Cette thèse s'inscrit dans le cadre de systèmes complexes appliqués aux systèmes économiques. Dans cette thèse, un modèle multi-agent a été proposé, qui modélise le cycle de production. Il est consitué d'entreprises, ouvirers/foyers, et une banque, et repecte la conservation de la monnaie. Son hypothèse centrale est que les entreprises se basent sur une marge espérée pour déterminer leur production. Un scénario simple de ce modèle, ou les marges espérées sont homogènes, a été analysé dans le cadre de models de croissance stochastique. Les résultats sont la distribution de tailles d'entreprises rassemblant des lois de puissance, et leur distribution du taux de croissance de forme 'tente', ainsi qu'une dépendence de taille de la variance de la croissance. Ces résultats sont proches aux faits stylisés issus d'études empiriques. Dans un scénario plus complet, le modèle contient des caractéristiques supplémentaires: des marges espérées hétérogèges, ainsi que des paiements d'intérêts, la possibilité de faire faillite. Cela ramène le modèle aux modèles macro-économiques multi-agents. Les extensions sont décrites de façon théorique par des équations de replicateur. Les résultats nouveaux sont la distribution d'age d'entreprises actives, la distribution de leur taux de profit, la distribution de dette, des statistiques sur les faillites, et des cycles de vie caractéristiques. Tout ces résultats sont qualitativement en accord avec des résultats d'études empiriques de plusieurs pays.Le modèle proposé génère des résultats prometteurs, en respectant le principe que des résultats qui apparaissent simultanément peuvent soit etre générés par un même processus, soit par plusieurs aui qui sont compatibles
The thesis is in the field of complex systems, applied to an economic system. In this thesis, an agent-based model has been proposed to model the production cycle. It comprises firms, workers, and a bank, and respects stock-flow consistency. Its central assumption is that firms plan their production based on an expected profit margin. A simple scenario of the model, where the expected profit margin is the same for all firms, has been analyzed in the context of simple stochastic growth models. Results are a firms' size distribution close to a power law, and tent-shaped growth rate distribution, and a growth rate variance scaling with firm size. These results are close to empirically found stylized facts. In a more comprehensive version, the model contains additional features: heterogeneous profits margins, as well as interest payments and the possibility of bankruptcy. This relates the model to agent-based macroeconomic models. The extensions are described theoretically theoretically with replicator dynamics. New results are the age distribution of active firms, their profit rate distribution, debt distribution, bankruptcy statistics, as well as typical life cycles of firms, which are all qualitatively in agreement with studies of firms databases of various countries.The proposed model yields promising results by respecting the principle that jointly found results may be generated by the same process, or by several ones which are compatible

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Neugebauer, Felix Sebastian. "Tayloring Brazil: a system dynamics model for monetary policy feedback." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/9098.

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The thesis introduces a system dynamics Taylor rule model of new Keynesian nature for monetary policy feedback in Brazil. The nonlinear Taylor rule for interest rate changes con-siders gaps and dynamics of GDP growth and inflation. The model closely tracks the 2004 to 2011 business cycle and outlines the endogenous feedback between the real interest rate, GDP growth and inflation. The model identifies a high degree of endogenous feedback for monetary policy and inflation, while GDP growth remains highly exposed to exogenous eco-nomic conditions. The results also show that the majority of the monetary policy moves during the sample period was related to GDP growth, despite higher coefficients of inflation parameters in the Taylor rule. This observation challenges the intuition that inflation target-ing leads to a dominance of monetary policy moves with respect to inflation. Furthermore, the results suggest that backward looking price-setting with respect to GDP growth has been the dominant driver of inflation. Moreover, simulation exercises highlight the effects of the new BCB strategy initiated in August 2011 and also consider recession and inflation avoid-ance versions of the Taylor rule. In methodological terms, the Taylor rule model highlights the advantages of system dynamics with respect to nonlinear policies and to the stock-and-flow approach. In total, the strong historical fit and some counterintuitive observations of the Taylor rule model call for an application of the model to other economies.

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Kellie-Smith, Owen. "Relating forced climate change to natural variability and emergent dynamics of the climate-economy system." Thesis, University of Exeter, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10036/115194.

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This thesis is in two parts. The first part considers a theoretical relationship between the natural variability of a stochastic model and its response to a small change in forcing. Over a large enough scale, both the real climate and a climate model are characterised as stochastic dynamical systems. The dynamics of the systems are encoded in the probabilities that the systems move from one state into another. When the systems’ states are discretised and listed, then transition matrices of all these transition probabilities may be formed. The responses of the systems to a small change in forcing are expanded in terms of the eigenfunctions and eigenvalues of the Fokker-Planck equations governing the systems’ transition densities, which may be estimated from the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the transition matrices. Smoothing the data with a Gaussian kernel improves the estimate of the eigenfunctions, but not the eigenvalues. The significance of differences in two systems’ eigenvalues and eigenfunctions is considered. Three time series from HadCM3 are compared with corresponding series from ERA-40 and the eigenvalues derived from the three pairs of series differ significantly. The second part analyses a model of the coupled climate-economic system, which suggests that the pace of economic growth needs to be reduced and the resilience to climate change needs to be increased in order to avoid a collapse of the human economy. The model condenses the climate-economic system into just three variables: a measure of human wealth, the associated accumulation of greenhouse gases, and the consequent level of global warming. Global warming is assumed to dictate the pace of economic growth. Depending on the sensitivity of economic growth to global warming, the model climate-economy system either reaches an equilibrium or oscillates in century-scale booms and busts.

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Vischio, Andrew Joseph. "An analysis of methodologies to estimate the economic impacts of freight transportation system disruptions." Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/37284.

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Disruptions to the freight transportation system are costly due to freight's critical relationship to economic productivity. This research will analyze the current methods of estimating the economic impacts of disruptions to the freight transportation system. A review of existing literature will be conducted with the intent of finding methods that address different types of disruptions and impacts. Due to varying economic scopes and disruptions studied, the results will likely indicate a broad range of methodologies and trends. The results will be used to better understand the different approaches taken when quantifying the economic impacts of disruptions and therefore enable more informed policy, regulation and investment.

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Mojica, Velazquez Jose Luis. "A Dynamic Optimization Framework with Model Predictive Control Elements for Long Term Planning of Capacity Investments in a District Energy System." BYU ScholarsArchive, 2013. https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/etd/3886.

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The capacity expansion of a district heating system is studied with the objective of evaluating the investment decision timing and type of capacity expansion. District energy is an energy generation system that provides energy, such as heat and electricity, generated at central locations and distributed to the surrounding area. The study develops an optimization framework to find the optimal investment schedule over a 30 year horizon with the options of investing in traditional heating sources (boilers) or a next-generation combined heat and power (CHP) plant that can provide heat and electricity. In district energy systems, the investment decision on the capacity and type of system is dependent on demand-side requirements, energy prices, and environmental costs. The main contribution of this work is to formulate the capacity planning over a time horizon asa dynamic optimal control problem. In this way, an initial system configuration can be modified by a 'controller' that optimally applies control actions that drive the system from an initial state to an optimal state. The optimal control is a model predictive control (MPC) formulation that not only provides the timing and size of the capacity investment, but also guidance on the mode of operation that meets optimal economic objectives with the given capacity.

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Merz, Laura. "AUTOMATION-INDUCED RESHORING: An Agent-based Model of the German Manufacturing Industry." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för geovetenskaper, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-394212.

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The concept of ‘Industry 4.0’ signalises the rise of innovative manufacturing technologies, including industrial robots. Wider applicability of robotic automation and higher efficiency of production processes shift the profitability analysis of strategic relocation decisions. Despite the technological feasibility, diffusion of technology lowers the profitability threshold for robots. Consequently, competitive labour cost advantages, formerly motivating manufacturing firms to offshore production become less relevant. In fact, robots additionally gain importance in the case of shifted global economic realities, such as stricter environmental regulation on global trade and the convergence of the global wage gap. However, the heterogeneous levels of automation among manufacturing firms have not been taken into account when studying the macroeconomic phenomenon of reshoring. This study adds novelty by offering an agent-based perspective which has allowed insights on how the behaviour of firms, guided by simple economic rules on the micro-level, is dynamically influenced by their complex environment in regard to relocation, decision-making hypotheses. Testing various variables sensitive to initial conditions, increased environmental regulations targeting global trade and upward shifting wage levels in formerly offshore production locations have shown to be driving and inhibiting mechanisms of this socio-technical system. Therefore, the dynamic demonstrates a shift from predominantly cited economic reasoning for relocation strategies towards sustainability aspects, pressingly changing these realities on an environmental and social dimension. The popular debate is driven by increased environmental awareness and the proclaimed fear of robots killing jobs. In view of reshoring shaping the political agenda, interest in the phenomenon has recently been fuelled by the rise of populism and protectionism claiming to “bring jobs back home”.

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Ревякін, Г. В. "Закономірності циклічного розвитку глобальної економічної системи (автореферат)". Thesis, ХНУ імені В. Н. Каразіна, 2018. http://dspace.univer.kharkov.ua/handle/123456789/14175.

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Дисертація присвячена поглибленню теоретико-методичних засад дослідження особливостей циклічного розвитку глобальної економічної системи та стабілізації економічного розвитку України. Досліджено наукове підґрунтя та охарактеризовано закономірності існування економічних циклів. Удосконалено поняття економічного циклу, який запропоновано розуміти як особливий тип періодичних коливань економічної активності навколо довгострокового тренду, що були викликані особливостями функціонування власне економічної системи та низкою зовнішніх чинників, які виявляються у волатильній природі більшості макроекономічних показників. Розроблено й обґрунтовано товарно-орієнтований підхід до природи економічних циклів, що базується на життєвому циклі товарів, які обертаються на ринку. У межах цього підходу стадії життєвого циклу товару ототожнюються з фазами економічного циклу. Таким чином, нині відомі економічні цикли з різним періодом відповідають життєвому циклу товарів з аналогічним періодом їх обертання на ринку. Розроблено модель динаміки економічної системи, що складається з моделі економічного зростання Р. Солоу та циклічної складової, яка об’єднує економічні цикли різної періодичності. На базі моделі запропоновано алгоритм прогнозування економічної динаміки з урахуванням економічних циклів, методологічною основою якого є метод «сірого ящика», згідно з яким економічний тренд виступає як визначена (невідома) складова, а економічні цикли є предметом вивчення моделі. Практичне застосування алгоритму прогнозування побудовано на використанні фільтра Ходріка-Прескотта як методу детрендизації й швидкого перетворення Фур’є як методу спектрального аналізу циклічної складової. За допомогою запропонованої моделі циклічної динаміки економічних систем проаналізовано динаміку світового ВВП у період 1960-2016 рр., а також складено прогноз до 2021 р. Доведено, що динаміка розвитку світової економіки протягом періоду дослідження мала циклічний характер із явно вираженим 16річним циклом. Циклічність економічної активності простежується в таких макроекономічних показниках, як темпи зростання ВВП, темпи інфляції, рівень безробіття, а також рівень іноземних прямих інвестицій. Завдяки запропонованій моделі циклічної динаміки економічних систем виявлено 8-річні цикли в динаміці прямих іноземних інвестицій та динаміці угод зі злиття й поглинання, які активізуються в точках екстремуму економічного циклу. За результатами дослідження виявлено закономірності протікання економічних циклів у межах глобальної економічної системи: економічні цикли в розвинених країнах мають випереджальний характер стосовно країн, що розвиваються; амплітуда економічних коливань навколо довгострокового тренду в країнах, що розвиваються, в 1,9 раз більша, ніж у розвинених країнах; високі темпи економічного зростання відповідають більшому ступеню волатильності темпів економічного розвитку; міжнародна торгівля відіграє головну роль у синхронізації економічних процесів у масштабі глобальної економічної системи; динаміка чистого експорту й поточного рахунка платіжного балансу в розвинених країнах і країнах, що розвиваються, має зворотно пропорційний характер; динаміка прямих іноземних інвестицій тісно корелює з фазами економічних циклів. Визначено головну мету економічної політики держави, якою слід вважати забезпечення динамічної стійкості, що передбачає підтримання стабільних показників економічного зростання в заданих межах. Для досягнення стабільності економічного розвитку державне регулювання економіки має базуватися на основі дії вбудованих стабілізаторів, до яких ми відносимо автоматичну зміну податкових надходжень і платежів залежно від фази економічного циклу. Розроблено економетричну модель динаміки економічного зростання України на базі моделей класу ARIMA, що розкриває сутність особливостей протікання економічних циклів у національній економіці України на сучасному етапі, а також чинники, що визначають параметри економічних циклів у національному масштабі. Визначено організаційно-економічні засади підвищення рівня міжнародної конкурентоспроможності України в контексті її адаптації до нестабільного глобального економічного простору з метою мінімізації негативних чинників циклічності розвитку глобальної економічної системи та прискорення динаміки економічного зростання. Ключові слова: глобальна економічна система, світова економіка, економічний цикл, цикл ділової активності, циклічність економічного розвитку, економічна криза, канали синхронізації економічних процесів, модель динаміки економічної системи, антициклічна економічна політика. The dissertation for a Candidate Degree in Economics. Speciality 08.00.02 – World Economy and International Economic Relations. – V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine, Kharkiv, 2018. The dissertation provides a deeper theoretical and methodological grounding for the studies of global economic system cyclical development and stability of Ukrainian economic development. The study examined scientific arguments and characterized the patterns of existing economic cycles. As a result of combination of the groups of theories, the definition of economic cycle was refined and put forward as a special type of periodic fluctuations in economic activity around the long-term trend, caused by internal features of the economic system and by a set of external factors that manifest themselves through volatility of most macroeconomic indicators. The dissertation proposes a new product based approach to the study of economic cycles, which considers life-cycle of goods circulating in the market. Within this approach, the product life-cycle stages are identified with the phases of economic cycle. On this ground, the well-known economic cycles of different periods correspond to the life-cycle of goods with a similar period of circulation in the market. The results of this study construct a model of economic system dynamics, which consists from R. Solow economic growth model and cyclical component that includes economic cycles with different periodicity. Based on this model, an algorithm for predicting economic performance that takes into account economic cycles was developed. This algorithm is based on the grey box method, according to which the economic trend is a predefined component, and economic cycles become the subject of the model study. Practical application of the prediction algorithm is based on the Hodrick-Prescott filter as a method of detrending and Fast Fourier Transform as a method of spectral analysis of the cyclic component. With the help of the proposed model of economic system cyclical performance, the dynamics of world GDP in the period between 1960-2016 was analysed, and a forecast was made up to 2021. It is argued then that the world economy development performance during the period viewed contains a prominent 16-year long cycle. The cyclic features of economic activity were traced in such macroeconomic indicators as GDP growth rate, inflation rate, unemployment rate, as well as the amount of foreign direct investment. On the basis of the proposed model of cyclical economic system dynamics, we can define 8-year long cycles in foreign direct investment dynamics and in mergers and acquisitions agreements, triggered at the extremes of the economic cycle. The results of the study revealed certain patterns of economic cycles that take place within the global economic system: economic cycles in developed countries are fast-paced compared to developing countries; the amplitude of economic fluctuations around the long-term trend in developing countries is 1.9 times more than in developed countries; high economic growth rates correspond to high volatility in economic development rates; international trade plays a major role in synchronization of economic processes in the global economic system; net exports and current account balance performance in developed and developing countries are indirectly proportional; foreign direct investment performance is closely related to economic cycle phases. The study also defines the main goal of government economic policy, which needs to ensure dynamic consistency that presupposes stable economic growth within the given frames. To achieve stable economic development, government regulation of the economy should be based on the built-in stabilizers, to which we include automatic change in tax revenues and payments, depending on the business cycle phase. The thesis develops an econometric model of Ukrainian economic growth dynamics based on ARIMA models, revealing the essence of economic cycles in Ukrainian national economy at its present stage, as well as the factors determining parameters of economic cycles on a national scale. Organizational and economic foundations for increasing Ukraine’s international competitiveness with the purpose of adapting to the volatile global economic space, were determined in order to reduce the negative effect of global economic system cyclical development and accelerate the economic growth. Keywords: global economic system, world economy, economic cycle, business cycle, cyclical economic development, economic crisis, economic processes synchronization channels, model of dynamics of the economic system, anti-cyclical economic policy.

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Книги з теми "Model of dynamics of the economic system"

Mathematical models of economic dynamics with discrete innovations. Hauppauge, NY: Nova Science Publishers, Inc., 2006.

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Baumgartner, Thomas. The shaping of socio-economic systems: Application of the theory of actor-system dynamics to conflict, social power and institutional innovation in economic life. London: Gordon and Breach Science Publishers, 1986.

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R, Burns Tom, and DeVille Philippe, eds. The shaping of socio-economic systems: The application of the theory of actor-system dynamics to conflict, social power, and institutional innovation in economic life. New York: Gordon and Breach, 1986.

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M, Hannon Bruce, ed. Modeling dynamic economic systems. New York: Springer, 1997.

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Ruth, Matthias. Modeling Dynamic Economic Systems. 2nd ed. Boston, MA: Springer US, 2012.

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Jensen, Bjarne S. The Dynamic Systems of Basic Economic Growth Models. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-1036-5.

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The dynamic systems of basic economic growth models. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic, 1994.

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Stachurski, John. Nonlinear Dynamics in Equilibrium Models: Chaos, Cycles and Indeterminacy. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2012.

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Hommes, Carsien Harm. Chaotic dynamics in economic models: Some simple case-studies. Groningen: Wolters-Noordhoff, 1991.

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Awcock, M. J. A system dynamics model for communications networks. [Malvern, Worcs.]: Royal Signals & Radar Establishment, 1985.

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Частини книг з теми "Model of dynamics of the economic system"

Antimiani, Alessandro, Valeria Costantini, Chiara Martini, Alessandro Palma, and Maria Cristina Tommasino. "The GTAP-E: Model Description and Improvements." In The Dynamics of Environmental and Economic Systems, 3–24. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-5089-0_1.

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Li, Daming, and Xinqiao Wang. "System Dynamics Simulation Model for Port Economy Analysis." In Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, 475–82. London: Springer London, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-4600-1_41.

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Zhang, Wei-Bin. "Growth Rate Controlled and Economic Dynamics in a Multisector Model." In Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 101–22. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1990. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-86480-3_6.

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Giulioni, Gianfranco. "Complex Systems Dynamics in an Economic Model with Mean Field Interactions." In Understanding Complex Systems, 189–200. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-88073-8_16.

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Silverberg, Gerald, and Bart Verspagen. "The Selection of Behavioral Conventions in an Evolutionary Model of Economic Dynamics." In Complexity and Self-Organization in Social and Economic Systems, 196–214. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-48406-3_16.

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Xu, Minghui, and Zhigao Liao. "Synthetical Research for Sustainable Development in Economic Circle of Beibu Gulf Based on System Dynamics Model." In Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, 1031–41. London: Springer London, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-4600-1_89.

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Cavana, Robert Y. "A System Dynamics Scenario Model of the New Zealand Economy: Review and Reflections After 25 Years." In Feedback Economics, 545–81. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-67190-7_20.

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Seitzer, Helen, and Michael Windzio. "Does Globalization Affect the Performance of Secondary Education Systems? A Coevolution Model of Multiplex Transnational Networks and Educational Performance." In Global Dynamics of Social Policy, 97–125. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-78885-8_4.

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AbstractIn Chap. 10.1007/978-3-030-78885-8_4, Helen Seitzer and Michael Windzio address PISA scores, student exchange, service sector trade flows, and migration. PISA, a study on education system effectiveness, is used to compare, name, and shame the ‘best’ and ‘worst’ of state education. Better education in connection to job prospects is one reason for migration but might also influence students’ choice of the destination for an exchange. But, both these networks might also follow existing paths of interconnectedness, similar to service trade relations. Applying a network coevolution model, the authors ask if a country’s change in PISA scores coincides with student exchange flows and migration patterns, or if other factors such as cultural, geographical, or economic aspects influence the choice of destination.

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Giulioni, Gianfranco, and Edgardo Bucciarelli. "Towards an Agent-Based Model of the Economic Development Process: The Dynamics of the Fertility Rate." In Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 229–40. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-13947-5_19.

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Aizstrauta, Dace, and Egils Ginters. "Introducing Integrated Acceptance and Sustainability Assessment of Technologies: A Model Based on System Dynamics Simulation." In Modeling and Simulation in Engineering, Economics, and Management, 23–30. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-38279-6_3.

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Тези доповідей конференцій з теми "Model of dynamics of the economic system"

Wang, Yuxuan, Xiaolu Liu, and Xiao Liang. "Logistics cost control based on system dynamics in chain retail industry." In 2020 2nd International Conference on Economic Management and Model Engineering (ICEMME). IEEE, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icemme51517.2020.00039.

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Chen, Lu, and Hanhui Hu. "Sustainable Management Strategy of China Medical City Based on System Dynamics Model." In 2020 2nd International Conference on Economic Management and Model Engineering (ICEMME). IEEE, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icemme51517.2020.00022.

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Zhang, Yi-xin. "Study on the Performance of Regional Economic Structure System by System Dynamics Model." In 2008 International Symposiums on Information Processing - ISIP 2008; 2008 International Pacific Workshop on Web Mining and Web-Based Application - WMWA 2008. IEEE, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/isip.2008.75.

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Averchenkova, Elena, and Aleksandr Gorbunov. "MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF REGIONAL SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEM CONTROL SYSTEM." In CAD/EDA/SIMULATION IN MODERN ELECTRONICS 2019. Bryansk State Technical University, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.30987/conferencearticle_5e0282129866f1.00678073.

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The apparatus of control theory is proposed to describe the management system of the regional socio-economic system. For the description of the developed control system the set-theoretic approach was used, also features of dynamic processes of control system were considered.

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Su, Hang. "Research on System Dynamics Model of Industrial Economic System Structure Evolution Based on Computer Aided Analysis." In ICISCAE 2021: 2021 IEEE 4th International Conference on Information Systems and Computer Aided Education. New York, NY, USA: ACM, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3482632.3484139.

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Zhang, Yuan. "Research on Financial Support Effect in Resource-based Urban Transformation and Development Based on System Dynamics Model : Taking Tongchuan City as an example." In 2020 2nd International Conference on Economic Management and Model Engineering (ICEMME). IEEE, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icemme51517.2020.00081.

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Barazandeh, Babak, and Mohammadhussein Rafieisakhaei. "A system dynamics model on the reasons of car price shocks after economic sanctions." In 2015 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC). IEEE, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/wsc.2015.7408479.

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Ellis, Matthew J. "Formulation of Economic Model Predictive Control to Address System Dynamics over Multiple Time Scales." In 2020 American Control Conference (ACC). IEEE, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.23919/acc45564.2020.9147829.

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Yang, Zining. "Integrating Agent Learning with System Dynamics in an Agent-Based Model of Economic Development." In CSS 2017: CSSSA's Annual Conference on Computational Social Science. New York, NY, USA: ACM, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3145574.3145599.

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Luís, Rafael, and Henrique Oliveira. "A Dynamical System for a Long Term Economic Model." In Proceedings of the Twelfth International Conference on Difference Equations and Applications. WORLD SCIENTIFIC, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/9789814287654_0026.

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Соловйов, В. М., В. В. Соловйова та Д. М. Чабаненко. Динаміка параметрів α-стійкого процесу Леві для розподілів прибутковостей фінансових часових рядів. ФО-П Ткачук О. В., 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.31812/0564/1336.

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Modem market economy of any country cannot successfully behave without the existence of the effective financial market. In the conditions of growing financial market, it is necessary to use modern risk-management methods, which take non-gaussian distributions into consideration. It is known, that financial and economic time series return’s distributions demonstrate so-called «heavy tails», which interrupts the modeling o f these processes with classical statistical methods. One o f the models, that is able to describe processes with «heavy tails», are the а -stable Levi processes. They can slightly simulate the dynamics of the asset prices, because it consists o f two components: the Brownian motion component and jump component. In the current work the usage of model parameters estimation procedure is proposed, which is based on the characteristic functions and is applied for the moving window for the purpose of financial-economic system’ s state monitoring.

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Finkelstein-Shapiro, Alan, Federico S. Mandelman, and Victoria Nuguer. Fintech Entry, Firm Financial Inclusion, and Macroeconomic Dynamics in Emerging Economies. Inter-American Development Bank, January 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003918.

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Financial inclusion is strikingly low in emerging economies. In only a few years, financial technologies (fintech) have led to a dramatic expansion in the number of non-traditional credit intermediaries, but the macroeconomic and credit-market implications of this rapid growth of fintech are not known. We build a model with a traditional banking system and endogenous fintech intermediary creation and find that greater fintech entry delivers positive long-term effects on aggregate output and consumption. However, greater entry bolsters aggregate firm financial inclusion only if it stems from lower barriers to accessing fintech credit by smaller, unbanked firms. Decreasing entry costs for fintech intermediaries alone has only marginal effects in the aggregate. While firms that adopt fintech credit are less sensitive to domestic financial shocks and contribute to a reduction in output volatility, greater fintech entry also leads to greater volatility in bank credit, thereby introducing a tradeoff between output volatility and credit-market volatility.

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Соловйов, Володимир Миколайович, та І. Є. Федорішин. Дослідження впливу економічних шоків на стан економіки України. Брама, видавець Третяков О. М., 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.31812/0564/1149.

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In the paper presented the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, which is adapted to the known model Ireland and includes twelve parameters. The influence of economic shocks on key macroeconomic indicators are studied. Assessment results will predict the effects of shocks to the economic system of Ukraine and develop strategic solutions to its stabilization and development.

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Meidani, Hadi, and Amir Kazemi. Data-Driven Computational Fluid Dynamics Model for Predicting Drag Forces on Truck Platoons. Illinois Center for Transportation, November 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.36501/0197-9191/21-036.

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Fuel-consumption reduction in the truck industry is significantly beneficial to both energy economy and the environment. Although estimation of drag forces is required to quantify fuel consumption of trucks, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to meet this need is expensive. Data-driven surrogate models are developed to mitigate this concern and are promising for capturing the dynamics of large systems such as truck platoons. In this work, we aim to develop a surrogate-based fluid dynamics model that can be used to optimize the configuration of trucks in a robust way, considering various uncertainties such as random truck geometries, variable truck speed, random wind direction, and wind magnitude. Once trained, such a surrogate-based model can be readily employed for platoon-routing problems or the study of pavement performance.

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King, Robert, and Sergio Rebelo. Transitional Dynamics and Economic Growth in the Neoclassical Model. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, November 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w3185.

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Drake, R. H., R. W. Hardie, V. W. Loose, and S. R. Booth. National environmental/economic infrastructure system model. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), August 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/522219.

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Red-Horse, J. R. Structural system identification: Structural dynamics model validation. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), April 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/469145.

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Ter-Minassian, Teresa, and Andrés Muñoz Miranda. Options for a Reform of the Mexican Intergovernmental Transfer System in Light of International Experiences. Inter-American Development Bank, April 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0004217.

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Анотація:

This paper focuses on the design of intergovernmental transfers to reduce vertical and horizontal fiscal imbalances and improve the performance of subnational governments. It provides an overview of international experiences, especially of large federations, with a view to devising viable options for reform of the transfer system in Mexico. While there is no one-size-fits-all ideal model of design and implementation of intergovernmental transfer systems, this analysis points to some lessons that can inform reforms, including the need to view intergovernmental transfers as an integral part of the overall system of intergovernmental fiscal relations; the use of different types of intergovernmental transfers that are best suited to fulfill different objectives; and the incorporation of equalization schemes to address regional disparities. In the light of these experiences, we find that the current Mexican transfer system is too fragmented, is linked to volatile oil revenues, involves substantial discretion in the allocation of a significant portion of the transfers, and lacks sufficient equalizing power. This paper presents and discusses possible reform options and demonstrates that it is altogether possible to reduce transfer dependence to promote effort and fiscal responsibility; simplify the system to increase predictability and ease its administration; eliminate discretion to increase transparency and establish stronger subnational budget constraints; and improve fiscal equalization to promote equity in subnational service delivery. Careful consideration of political economy dynamics is given in the simulations of possible reforms, with a view to minimizing short-term gains and losses as well as political opposition.

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Maltrud, Mathew, and Phillip Wolfram. Marine Biogeochemical Dynamics in Coastally Refined Earth System Model Simulations. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), April 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1779652.

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Myers, Rodney S., Michael E. McDevitt, and Michael W. Zabarouskas. Surface Warfare Officer Community Management Model System Dynamics Proof-of-Concept. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, February 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada421072.

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