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Добірка наукової літератури з теми "Management under uncertainty"

Автор: Grafiati

Опубліковано: 30 травня 2022

Оновлено: 31 травня 2022

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Статті в журналах з теми "Management under uncertainty"

Leonov, Ya. "Modern Approach to Sports Industry Management under Uncertainty." Economic Herald of the Donbas, no. 4 (62) (2020): 119–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.12958/1817-3772-2020-4(62)-119-123.

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The article considers the organizational conditions for the functioning of the sports industry, suggests ways to ensure the strategic development of the sports industry in conditions of uncertainty. The possibility of implementing the European model of socio-economic development management in Ukraine is analyzed, it is concluded that it is connected with complex systemic transformations in which a new quality society is formed, the level of business activity and political responsibility of citizens increases, human rights and freedoms are ensured. These changes in the structure and content of civil society inevitably determine changes in the form and essence of public policy in the system of state, territorial and sectoral government. The problem of developing social responsibility of business in Ukraine at the present stage is relevant and of paramount importance. Therefore, state support is necessary for the importance of ethical and socially responsible behavior of organizations, increasing their prestige. The introduction of a system of modern management of the sports industry, the use of best European management practices will increase competitiveness, efficiency and ensure the sustainable development of the sports industry in conditions of uncertainty. Improving the efficiency of interaction in the system "state – community – science – business" and building a socially responsible economic policy, improving the quality of the national management system of the sports industry is one of the main conditions for sustainable socio-economic development of the country as a whole man.

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García Morales, Rafael M., Asunción Baquerizo, and Miguel Á. Losada. "PORT OPERATIONALITY AND SAFETY ANALYSIS UNDER UNCERTAINTY." Coastal Engineering Proceedings 1, no. 34 (October 30, 2014): 31. http://dx.doi.org/10.9753/icce.v34.management.31.

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Skitmore, R. M., S. G. Stradling, and A. P. Tuohy. "Project management under uncertainty." Construction Management and Economics 7, no. 2 (June 1989): 103–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01446198900000015.

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Alonso-Ayuso, Antonio, Laureano F. Escudero, Monique Guignard, Martín Quinteros, and Andres Weintraub. "Forestry management under uncertainty." Annals of Operations Research 190, no. 1 (May 21, 2009): 17–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10479-009-0561-0.

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Félix, Angélica, Asunción Baquerizo, Juan Manuel Santiago, and Miguel Ángel Losada. "DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY IN COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT." Coastal Engineering Proceedings 1, no. 33 (October 25, 2012): 28. http://dx.doi.org/10.9753/icce.v33.management.28.

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We analyze decision making under uncertainty in a search for an integral management solution for Playa Granada in the Guadalfeo River Delta (Granada, Spain), where the construction of a dam in the river basin is causing severe erosion. Different management strategies are considered. For each of them the assessment of the uncertainty in the accomplishment of the management targets is done with a methodology that takes into account the coupled action of atmosphere, ocean, and land agents and their intrinsic stochastic character. This information is used to infer the joint distribution function of three criteria that represent the economic benefit of different interest groups. A stochastic multicriteria decision method that accounts for the uncertainty in the performances of alternatives and also in decision makers preferences, is used to rank strategies according to their effectiveness in an informed and transparent process.

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Samanta, Subarna K., and Ali H. Mohamad-Zadeh. "Bank's Portfolio Management under Uncertainty." American Economist 36, no. 2 (October 1992): 30–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/056943459203600204.

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The major objective of this paper is to derive a set of optimal decision rules (for asset or inventory management) for a commercial bank operating under uncertain circumstances (subject to stochastic deposit loss). The bank is assumed to be maximizing the expected utility derived from it's net income. This objective is realized by the marginal conditions of the model. It shows how and under what conditions, the banker should expand loans at the expense of securities and/or excess reserves and how he adjusts to de-regulations and how the change in uncertainty about the deposit loss affects him.

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Karamouzis, Nicholas V., and Jagdeep S. Bhandari. "Exchange Rate Management under Uncertainty." Southern Economic Journal 52, no. 4 (April 1986): 1197. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1059189.

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Marini, Giancarlo, and Jagdeep S. Bhandari. "Exchange Rate Management under Uncertainty." Economica 54, no. 213 (February 1987): 126. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2554360.

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Mills, Terence C., and Jagdeep S. Bhandari. "Exchange Rate Management Under Uncertainty." Economic Journal 96, no. 381 (March 1986): 248. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2233453.

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Bensoussan, Alain, Anshuman Chutani, and Suresh P. Sethi. "Optimal cash management under uncertainty." Operations Research Letters 37, no. 6 (November 2009): 425–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.orl.2009.08.002.

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Дисертації з теми "Management under uncertainty"

Kistenmacher, Martin. "Reservoir system management under uncertainty." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/49012.

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Reservoir systems are subject to several uncertainties that are the result of imperfect knowledge about system behavior and inputs. A major source of uncertainty arises from the inability to predict future inflows. Fortunately, it is often possible to generate probabilistic forecasts of inflow volumes in the form of probability density functions or ensembles. These inflow forecasts can be coupled with stochastic management models to determine reservoir release policies and provide stakeholders with meaningful information of upcoming system responses such as reservoir levels, releases, flood damage risks, hydropower production, water supply withdrawals, water quality conditions, navigation opportunities, and environmental flows, among others. This information on anticipated system responses is also expressed in the form of forecasts that must reliably represent the actual system behavior when it eventually occurs. The first part of this study presents an assessment methodology that can be used to determine the consistency of ensemble forecasts through the use of relative frequency histograms and minimum spanning trees (MST). This methodology is then used to assess a management model's ability to produce reliable ensemble forecasts. It was found that neglecting to account for hydrologic state variables and improperly modeling the finite management horizon decrease ensemble consistency. Several extensions to the existing management model are also developed and evaluated. The second portion of this study involves the management of the uncertainties in reservoir systems. Traditional management models only find management policies that optimize the expected values of system benefits or costs, thereby not allowing operators and stakeholders to explicitly explore issues related to uncertainty and risk management. A technique that can be used to derive management policies that produce desired probabilistic distributions of reservoir system outputs reflecting stakeholder preferences is developed. This technique can be embedded in a user-interactive framework that can be employed to evaluate the trade-offs and build consensus in multi-objective and multi-stakeholder systems. The methods developed in this dissertation are illustrated in case studies of real reservoir systems, including a seven-reservoir, multi-objective system in California's Central Valley.

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Fonseca, Raquel João. "International portfolio management under uncertainty." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/7115.

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Although the consideration of foreign investments may have a positive impact on the overall market risk of the portfolio through diversi cation, it also adds a new source of uncertainty due to changes in the value of the currency. We investigate portfolio optimization models that account separately for the local asset returns and the currency returns, providing the investor with a full investment strategy. We tackle the uncertainty inherent to the estimation of the parameters with the aid of robust optimization techniques. We show how, by using appropriate assumptions regarding the formulation of the uncertainty sets, the original non-linear and non-convex models may be reformulated as second order cone or as semide nite programs. Additionally to the guarantees provided by robust optimization, we consider the use of hedging instruments such as forward contracts and options. The proposed hedging strategies are implemented from a portfolio perspective, and therefore do not depend on the individual value or behavior of any particular asset or currency. Hedging decisions are taken at the same time as investment decisions in a holistic approach to portfolio management. While dynamic decision making has traditionally been represented as scenario trees, these may become severely intractable and di cult to compute with an increasing number of time periods. We present an alternative approach to multiperiod international portfolio optimization based on an a ne dependence between the decision variables and the past returns. We add to our formulation the minimization of the worst case value-at-risk and show the close relationship with robust optimization. The proposed theoretical framework is supported by various numerical experiments with simulated and historical market data demonstrating its potential bene ts.

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Baresel, Christian. "Environmental management of water systems under uncertainty." Doctoral thesis, Stockholm : Mark- och vattenteknik, Kungliga Tekniska högskolan, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-4396.

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Chahar, Kiran. "Revenue and order management under demand uncertainty." Connect to this title online, 2008. http://etd.lib.clemson.edu/documents/1219855173/.

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Nartey, Mohammed Donkor, and Anyinka Nkongtenden Ndobegang. "SUPPLIER SELECTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY." Thesis, Jönköping University, Jönköping International Business School, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-1189.

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The role of purchasing in supply chain management has received and continues to receive increasing attention as the years go by. Purchasing enhances efficiency and competitiveness among other benefits but to realize these benefits it is imperative to select and maintain competent suppliers. However, many factors affect a firm’s ability to choose the right supplier. Uncertainty is an issue that has received great attention. It affects all functions of a company consequently affecting purchasing and supplier selection. This thesis seeks to provide an understanding of the supplier selection process and criteria under circumstances of uncertainty in the case where the potential supplier under evaluation is a newly created company. The authors try to find out if uncertainty varies with firm’s age and tested the suitability of existing criteria on the selection of newly created firms. They also sought ways by which uncertainty can be reduced.One of the realisations of this thesis is that there is a relationship between the characteristics or problems faced by new firms and uncertainty. Uncertainties created by new firms include lack of trust and commitment, inadequate finance, poor quality, unreliable delivery times, inadequate logistic technological capabilities. No new types or sources of uncertainty were discovered however, it was found that uncertainty was certainly higher when working with new firms. The criteria delivery, quality, cost/price, financial position and communication and technology were recognized as the commonly used criteria a fact confirmed from empirical results as well as in previous literature. However other criteria such as ISO certification, reliability, credibility, good references and product development were also identified. These criteria had existed before but did not receive the same attention in previous studies. This show that focus is shifting from solely relying on quantitative factors to include qualitative criteria. The study identified that some methods of minimising uncertainty could include detailed financial analyses, site visit, intensive verification, close relationships, ISO certification, good references and recommendations. It is worth noting that uncertainty cannot be entirely eliminated in all situations

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Eskandari, Abdollah 1952. "Decision support system in watershed management under uncertainty." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1997. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/191213.

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Watershed ecosystems consist of numerous resources which have important environmental, social, cultural, and economic values. The mutual existence and interaction among different resources within the watershed ecosystem calls for a multiobjective watershed resources management analysis. These objectives are often uncertain since they are based on estimation and/or measurement data. Probabilistic methods or fuzzification are usually the methods used in modeling these uncertainties. Selection of the best decision alternative is based on using some Multiple Criterion Decision Making (MCDM) technique. Through simulation in this dissertation, we examine the probabilistic model to address the watershed management problem. In particular, the distance-based methods, which are the most frequently used MCDM techniques, are employed in the problem analysis. In most cases, several interest groups with conflicting preferences are willing to influence the final decision. In our study, a new method is suggested to incorporate their preference orders into the DM's final preference. The application of MCDM techniques combined with stochastic simulation and conflicting preference orders is new in the watershed management literature. Detailed analysis and comparison of the numerical results will help to decide on the suitability of the MCDM technique in watershed resources management. In particular, our numerical results indicate that in practical applications the best alternative selection is significantly influenced by the uncertainties in the payoff values. Hence, in situations where suitable data are available, our methodology is highly recommended.

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Zheng, Yahong. "Supply chain management under availability & uncertainty constraints." Thesis, Ecole centrale de Lille, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012ECLI0019/document.

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Le management de la chaîne logistique concerne un large éventail d’activités. Nombreuses ceux qui ont un caractère incertain apportant souvent des conséquences inattendues. Malgré cela, l’incertitude est fréquemment non considérée dans la gestion de la chaîne logistique traditionnelle. En plus de l’incertitude, l’indisponibilité des ressources augmentera la complexité du problème. En prenons en compte les contraintes d’incertitude et de disponibilité nous étudions le management de la chaîne logistique selon différents aspects. Cette thèse représente une tentative de recherche afin d’aborder ce problème d’une façon systématique et complète et nous espérons que notre travail contribuera aux futurs travaux de recherche et sera utile aux gestionnaires de la chaîne logistique. Nous nous concentrons sur trois sources classiques de l’incertitude ; celle de la demande, celle la fabrication et celle liée à la distribution. Pour chaque source d’incertitude, nous analysons ses causes et ses impacts sur les performances de la chaîne logistique. L’incertitude est spécifiée dans des problèmes classiques concrets et des approches sont proposées pour les résoudre. Nous nous sommes également focalisés sur le problème bi-niveau de vendeur de journaux qui représente une chaîne logistique miniature, concerné par une double incertitude. Les méthodes utilisées offrent une bonne démonstration du traitement des variables incertaines dans les problèmes de décision
Supply chain management involves a wide range of activities. Among most of them, uncertainty exists inherently and always brings some consequence not expected. However, uncertainty is not considered much in conventional supply chain management. In the case where availability of resources is not what we expect, complexity of supply chain management increases. Taking constraints of uncertainty and availability into account, we aim to discuss supply chain management from different aspects. This thesis is an attempt of systematic and complete research from this point and we would like to offer some references to researchers and managers in supply chain. We focus on three classic sources of uncertainty: demand, manufacturing and distribution. For each source of uncertainty, we analyze its cause and its impact to the performance of the supply chain. Uncertainty is specified into concrete classic problem and an approach is proposed to solve it. Furthermore, bi-level newsboy problem as a miniature of supply chain, is focused under double uncertain environment. Treating uncertain variables is actually a treatment on operational level. The methods used offer good demonstration in treating uncertain variables in decision problems

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Betrie, Getnet Dubale. "Risk management of acid rock drainage under uncertainty." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/51562.

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Acid rock drainage (ARD) is a major environmental problem that causes local and global pollution. ARD occurs when sulfide bearing materials are exposed to oxygen and water during mining activities. This reaction between sulfide and oxygen with the presence of water generates elevated metals and metalloids that may cause potential environmental and human health risks. The remediation costs of potentially acid-generating wastes at abandoned minesites are estimated to be over $20 billion in USA. The major objective of this research is to propose a risk management framework for ARD that can improve the prediction of ARD chemistry, assess and manage environmental and human health risks to guide decision-making under uncertainty. The proposed framework consists of methodologies for filling in missing data, predict ARD chemistry, assess environmental risks, and manage risks of ARD. In the first methodology, missing values of ARD data are filled in using imputation algorithms that reduce loss of information and introduction of biases. After having the complete data, future ARD chemistry is predicted using machine learning techniques. The predictive uncertainty due to data, parameters and model is quantified using a probability bounds approach. Models are integrated using aggregation methods to reduce the uncertainty of the individual model. Case studies in minesites show that the developed methodology improves the prediction of future ARD chemistry under uncertainty. For ecological and human health risks assessment of ARD, two methodologies are developed based on the fugacity and PHREEQC approaches. The fugacity and PHREEQC approaches are applied in minesites with limited and adequate hydrogeological information, respectively. Case studies in minesites show that these methodologies are useful to quantify ecological and human health risks in the mining industry. In addition, they quantify the associated uncertainties in the risk assessments using the probability bounds and fuzzy-probabilistic approaches. For risk management of ARD, a methodology that uses multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and probabilistic approaches is developed. The methodology enables decision-makers to evaluate mitigation measures with various criteria, such as risk, cost, and technical feasibility, identifies the optimal mitigation measure, and quantifies the associated uncertainties in decision-making. In general, it is believed that the proposed framework enhances the decision-making ability of the mining industry under uncertainty and reduces environmental risks and remediation costs of managing ARD.
Applied Science, Faculty of
Engineering, School of (Okanagan)
Graduate

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Dasu, Sriram. "Manufacturing decisions under uncertainty : models and methodology." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1988. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/26804.

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Kim, Joocheol. "Stochastic programming approach to asset liability management under uncertainty." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/25324.

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Книги з теми "Management under uncertainty"

Gil-Aluja, Jaime, ed. Handbook of Management under Uncertainty. Boston, MA: Springer US, 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-0285-8.

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Choi, Tsan-Ming. Supply Chain Coordination under Uncertainty. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2011.

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Vincent, Thomas L., Yosef Cohen, Walter J. Grantham, Geoffrey P. Kirkwood, and Jan M. Skowronski, eds. Modeling and Management of Resources under Uncertainty. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1987. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-93365-3.

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Sengupta, Jati K. Optimal decisions under uncertainty: Methods, models, and management. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1985.

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Optimal decisions under uncertainty: Methods, models, and management. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1985.

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Wiesemann, Wolfram. Optimization of Temporal Networks under Uncertainty. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2012.

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Conejo, Antonio J. Decision making under uncertainty in electricity markets. New York: Springer, 2010.

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What every enginerr should know about decision making under uncertainty. New York: Marcel Dekker, 2002.

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Political risk management: International lending and investing under environmental uncertainty. New York: Quorum Books, 1987.

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Production and decision theory under uncertainty. Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1987.

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Частини книг з теми "Management under uncertainty"

Beroggi, Giampiero E. G. "Choices Under Uncertainty." In Decision Modeling in Policy Management, 144–73. Boston, MA: Springer US, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-5599-5_6.

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Connor, D. J., and S. Debela. "Management Under Uncertainty-Discussion." In International Crop Science I, 179. Madison, WI, USA: Crop Science Society of America, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.2135/1993.internationalcropscience.oth5.

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Otley, David. "Management Control under Uncertainty: Thinking about Uncertainty." In Management Control and Uncertainty, 83–96. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137392121_6.

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Yeung, David W. K., and Leon A. Petrosyan. "Collaborative Environmental Management Under Uncertainty." In Subgame Consistent Economic Optimization, 271–93. Boston, MA: Birkhäuser Boston, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-0-8176-8262-0_10.

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Diwekar, Urmila, and Amy David. "Water Management Under Weather Uncertainty." In SpringerBriefs in Optimization, 57–66. New York, NY: Springer New York, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-2282-6_5.

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Dantzig, George B. "Linear Programming Under Uncertainty." In International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, 1–11. New York, NY: Springer New York, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-1642-6_1.

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Lai, Tze Leung. "Sequential Optimization Under Uncertainty." In International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, 35–55. New York, NY: Springer US, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/0-306-48102-2_3.

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Gröwe-Kuska, Nicole, Krzysztof C. Kiwiel, Matthias P. Nowak, Werner Römisch, and Isabel Wegner. "Power Management in a Hydro-Thermal System under Uncertainty by Lagrangian Relaxation." In Decision Making Under Uncertainty, 39–70. New York, NY: Springer New York, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-9256-9_3.

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Hansson, Sven Ove. "Risk Analysis under Structural Uncertainty." In Knowledge in Risk Assessment and Management, 241–64. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781119317906.ch10.

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Conejo, Antonio J., Miguel Carrión, and Juan M. Morales. "Risk management." In Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets, 121–56. Boston, MA: Springer US, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-7421-1_4.

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Тези доповідей конференцій з теми "Management under uncertainty"

Davis, J. P., and A. J. P. Fletcher. "Managing Assets under Uncertainty." In SPE Asia Pacific Conference on Integrated Modelling for Asset Management. Society of Petroleum Engineers, 2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/59443-ms.

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Jung, Hwisung, and Massoud Pedram. "Resilient dynamic power management under uncertainty." In the conference. New York, New York, USA: ACM Press, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/1403375.1403430.

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Jung, Hwisung, and Massoud Pedram. "Resilient Dynamic Power Management under Uncertainty." In 2008 Design, Automation and Test in Europe. IEEE, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/date.2008.4484690.

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Jianjun Yu and Qiangqiang Zhu. "Agriculture production planning under supply uncertainty and demand uncertainty." In 2015 12th International Conference on Service Systems and Service Management (ICSSSM). IEEE, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icsssm.2015.7170313.

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Sauhats, Antans, and Renata Varfolomejeva. "The power station regime management under uncertainty." In 2014 55th International Scientific Conference on Power and Electrical Engineering of Riga Technical University (RTUCON). IEEE, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/rtucon.2014.6998177.

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Geske, Joachim, and Richard Green. "Optimal storage investment and management under uncertainty." In 2016 IEEE 8th International Power Electronics and Motion Control Conference (IPEMC 2016 - ECCE Asia). IEEE, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ipemc.2016.7512341.

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Harrison, K. W. "Optimal Adaptive Water Quality Management under Uncertainty." In World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2007. Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/40927(243)536.

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Li, M. Q., M. H. Han, and J. Q. Xu. "Reliable system design under uncertainty." In 2014 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management (IEEM). IEEE, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ieem.2014.7058820.

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Zhang, Juliang. "Newsboy problem under Knightian uncertainty." In 2011 8th International Conference on Service Systems and Service Management (ICSSSM 2011). IEEE, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icsssm.2011.5959524.

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Qing Ye, Jianshe Song, Zhenglei Yang, and Lianfeng Wang. "Emergency vehicle location model and algorithm under uncertainty." In 2011 2nd IEEE International Conference on Emergency Management and Management Sciences (ICEMMS). IEEE, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icemms.2011.6015604.

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Звіти організацій з теми "Management under uncertainty"

Drazen, Allan, and Elhanan Helpman. Stabilization with Exchange Rate Management under Uncertainty. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, May 1987. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w2268.

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Lempert, Robert J., Michelle Miro, and Diogo Prosdocimi. A DMDU Guidebook for Transportation Planning Under a Changing Climate. Edited by Benoit Lefevre and Ernesto Monter Flores. Inter-American Development Bank, February 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003042.

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The effects of climate-related natural hazards pose a significant threat to sustainable development in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region and in particular its transportation sector. Risk Management provides an appropriate framework for assessing and mitigating the impacts of climate change and other climate-related natural hazards on transportation systems and choosing actions to enhance their resilience. However, analysts and policymakers involved in transportation planning, policy, and investment face significant challenges in managing the risks triggered by the effects of climate change. Climate change impacts the lifespan of roads, airports, and railroads as they have time horizons that surpass 40 years, thus making it harder (if not impossible) to forecast with confidence all relevant future events that will affect such infrastructure. In addition, the climate has already changed, so the return frequency of storms, for example, and other extreme events may now be different than suggested by the historical record in ways that are not always currently well understood. Implementing Risk Management under conditions of such uncertainty can prove difficult. Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) enables Risk Management under conditions of Deep Uncertainty, that is when risks cannot confidently be quantified. This guidebook is aligned with the Disaster and Climate Change Risk Assessment Methodology for IDB projects (IDB 2018) and introduces and provides guidance on applying methods for Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) to transportation planning. It presents the methodological steps that are necessary for the implementation of DMDU methodologies and reviews several such methods, including scenario planning, Adaptive Pathways, and robust decision making (RDM). This review is geared towards supporting the incorporation of DMDU methods into IDBs transportation sector funding and planning processes.

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Kucherova, Hanna, Anastasiia Didenko, Olena Kravets, Yuliia Honcharenko, and Aleksandr Uchitel. Scenario forecasting information transparency of subjects' under uncertainty and development of the knowledge economy. [б. в.], October 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.31812/123456789/4469.

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Topicality of modeling information transparency is determined by the influence it has on the effectiveness of management decisions made by an economic entity in the context of uncertainty and information asymmetry. It has been found that information transparency is a poorly structured category which acts as a qualitative characteristic of information and at certain levels forms an additional spectrum of properties of the information that has been adequately perceived or processed. As a result of structuring knowledge about the factor environment, a fuzzy cognitive model of information transparency was constructed in the form of a weighted digraph. Structural analysis and scenario forecasting of optimal alternatives of the fuzzy cognitive model made it possible to evaluate the classes of factors, identify their limited relations, establish the centrality of the roles of information transparency and information and communication security in the system built and evaluate their importance when modeling the situation self-development. Information visibility, reliability and availability have been found to have the strongest impact on the system. Taking into account different initial weights of the key factors — information transparency and information and communication security — the study substantiates the strategic ways for economic entities to achieve their goals in the context of uncertainty and information asymmetry, which allows us to use this approach as a tool for strategic management in the information environment.

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Greenhill, Lucy. MASTS ‘Brexit’ event – summary report. Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland (MASTS), 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.15664/10023.25094.

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Background. As negotiations continue in relation to the UK’s departure from the European Union, considerable uncertainty remains around the final structure of any deal and the implications across all policy areas. Maritime issues are of key concern in Scotland and numerous reports and opinions are accumulating, highlighting significant areas of concern, ranging from fisheries to decommissioning, and some potential opportunities. There is a critical need for knowledge and capacity to support and influence the on-going negotiation process, at both the Scottish and UK level. Expertise regarding the broad range of marine research, operations and commerce is in demand to support discussion, promote interests and secure advances where possible. Such discussion must be based on the best available science but taking into account the socio-economic and historical context. The Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland1 (MASTS) is supporting this discussion, providing scientific expertise and promoting the development of emerging policy and progress towards sustainable marine management, during the transition period and for the post-departure UK organisation. This workshop, supported by MASTS, brought government and academia together to consider the legal, governmental and research framework under which Brexit is taking place and to identify priority areas and activities where information can be shared and options considered for enhancing scientific support for the Brexit process. The objectives were to: • Understand current status of Brexit with respect to marine systems and research capacity, including the legislative framework • Identify the priority gaps in knowledge • Develop ways to enhance communication pathways for the best scientific advice required to support the Brexit process.

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Chiel, Elad, and Christopher J. Geden. Development of sustainable fly management tools in an era of global warming. United States Department of Agriculture, January 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.32747/2014.7598161.bard.

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House flies (Muscadomestica) are global pests of animal agriculture, causing major annoyance, carrying pathogens among production facilities and humans and thus have profound impacts on animal comfort and productivity. Successful fly control requires an integrated pest management (IPM) approach that includes elements of manure management, mass trapping, biological control, and selective insecticide use. Insecticidal control of house flies has become increasingly difficult due to the rapidity with which resistance develops, even to new active ingredients. Global climate change poses additional challenges, as the efficacy of natural enemies is uncertain under the higher temperatures that are predicted to become more commonplace in the future. The two major objectives of this research project were: 1) to develop a cost-effective autodissemination application method of Pyriproxifen (PPF), an insect growth regulator, for controlling house flies; 2) to study the effect of increasing temperatures on the interactions between house flies and their principal natural enemies. First, we collected several wild house fly populations in both countries and established that most of them are susceptible to PPF, although one population in each country showed initial signs of PPF-resistance. An important finding is that the efficacy of PPF is substantially reduced when applied in cows’ manure. We also found that PPF is compatible with several common species of parasitoids that attack the house fly, thus PPF can be used in IPM programs. Next, we tried to develop “baited stations” in which house flies will collect PPF on their bodies and then deliver and deposit it in their oviposition sites (= autodissemination). The concept showed potential in lab experiments and in outdoor cages trials, but under field conditions the station models we tested were not effective enough. We thus tested a somewhat different approach – to actively release a small proportion of PPF-treated flies. This approach showed positive results in laboratory experiments and awaits further field experiments. On the second topic, we performed two experimental sets: 1) we collected house flies and their parasitoids from hot temperature and mild temperature areas in both countries and, by measuring some fitness parameters we tested whether the ones collected from hot areas are better adapted to BARD Report - Project 4701 Page 2 of 16 heat. The results showed very little differences between the populations, both of flies and parasitoids. 2) A “fast evolution” experiment, in which we reared house flies for 20 generations under increasing temperatures. Also here, we found no evidence for heat adaptation. In summary, pyriproxyfen proved to be a highly effective insect growth regulator for house flies that is compatible with it’s natural enemies. Although our autodissemination stations yielded disappointing results, we documented the proportion of flies in a population that must be exposed to PPF to achieve effective fly control. Both the flies and their principal parasitoids show no evidence for local adaptation to high temperatures. This is an encouraging finding for biological control, as our hypothesis was that the fly would be adapting faster to high temperatures than the parasitoids. BARD Report - Project 4701 Page 3 of 16

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