Готові списки джерел за темами / Global microbiologal risk model

Добірка наукової літератури з теми "Global microbiologal risk model"

Автор: Grafiati
Опубліковано: 10 грудня 2022
Оновлено: 29 січня 2023

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Статті в журналах з теми "Global microbiologal risk model"

1

Oludoun, Olajumoke, Olukayode Adebimpe, James Ndako, Oluwakemi E. Abiodun, Babatunde Gbadamosi, and Benedicta B. Aladeitan. "Global stability analysis of hepatitis B virus dynamics." F1000Research 10 (May 28, 2021): 429. http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.52785.1.

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Анотація:
This paper considers the impact of an acute individual's spontaneous clearance, recovery of a chronic individual with full immunity, and risk factor reduction on a hepatitis B virus (HBV) model. The existence and the positivity solution of the model are established. The model threshold quantity is defined and sensitivity analysis is analyzed to demonstrate the effect of various parameters on the spread of the virus. The global stability analysis of the equilibrium is shown using Lyapunov and comparison theorem methods. Finally, computational simulation is presented to validate the analytical solution. The results show that treatment, spontaneous clearance and reduction of the risk factor are highly successful in transmitting and regulating HBV transmission. The effective measure of these parameters as substantiated by our simulations, providing an excellent control method of the transmissible infection of HBV.
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2

Oludoun, Olajumoke, Olukayode Adebimpe, James Ndako, Oluwakemi E. Abiodun, Babatunde Gbadamosi, and Benedicta B. Aladeitan. "Global stability analysis of hepatitis B virus dynamics." F1000Research 10 (January 21, 2022): 429. http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.52785.2.

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Анотація:
This paper considers the impact of an acute individual's spontaneous clearance, recovery of a chronic individual with full immunity, and risk factor reduction on a hepatitis B virus (HBV) model. The existence and the positivity solution of the model are established. The model threshold quantity is defined and sensitivity analysis is analyzed to demonstrate the effect of various parameters on the spread of the virus. The global stability analysis of the equilibrium is shown using Lyapunov and comparison theorem methods. Finally, computational simulation is presented to validate the analytical solution. The results show that treatment, spontaneous clearance and reduction of the risk factor are highly successful in transmitting and regulating HBV transmission. The effective measure of these parameters as substantiated by our simulations, providing an excellent control method of the transmissible infection of HBV.
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3

Zhang, Chao, Yanzhao Yang, Zhiming Feng, Chiwei Xiao, Tingting Lang, Wenpeng Du, and Ying Liu. "Risk of Global External Cereals Supply under the Background of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Based on the Perspective of Trade Network." Foods 10, no. 6 (May 23, 2021): 1168. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/foods10061168.

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Анотація:
International food trade is an integral part of the food system, and the COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the fragility of external food supplies. Based on the perspective of cereals trade networks (CTN), the pandemic risk is combined with the trade intensity between countries, and an assessment model of cereals external supply risk is constructed that includes external dependence index (EDI), import concentration, and risk of COVID-19 from import countries index (RICI). The results show that: (1) the global main CTN have typical scale-free characteristics, and seven communities are detected under the influence of the core countries; (2) about 60%, 50%, and 70% of countries face risks of medium and above (high and very high) external dependence, concentration of imports, and COVID-19 in the country of origin, respectively. Under the influence of the pandemic, the risk of global external cereal supply index (RECSI) has increased by 65%, and the USA-CAN communities show the highest risk index; (3) the countries with a very high risk are mainly the Pacific island countries and the Latin American and African countries. In addition, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, and 80% of the net food-importing developing countries are at high or very high RECSI levels. Approximately 50% of countries belong to the compound risk type, and many export countries belong to the RICI risk type; (4) global external food supply is subjected to multiple potential threats such as trade interruption, “price crisis”, and “payment dilemma”. The geographical proximity of community members and the geographical proximity of the pandemic risk is superimposed, increasing the regional risk of external food supply; and (5) this study confirms that the food-exporting countries should avoid the adoption of food export restriction measures and can prevent potential external supply risks from the dimensions of maintaining global food liquidity and promoting diversification of import sources. We believe that our assessment model of cereals external supply risk comprises a useful method for investigations regarding the international CTN or global food crisis under the background of the pandemic.
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Zhang, Chao, Yanzhao Yang, Zhiming Feng, Chiwei Xiao, Ying Liu, Xinzhe Song, and Tingting Lang. "Cold Chain Food and COVID-19 Transmission Risk: From the Perspective of Consumption and Trade." Foods 11, no. 7 (March 22, 2022): 908. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/foods11070908.

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Анотація:
Since the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), political and academic circles have focused significant attention on stopping the chain of COVID-19 transmission. In particular outbreaks related to cold chain food (CCF) have been reported, and there remains a possibility that CCF can be a carrier. Based on CCF consumption and trade matrix data, here, the “source” of COVID-19 transmission through CCF was analyzed using a complex network analysis method, informing the construction of a risk assessment model reflecting internal and external transmission dynamics. The model included the COVID-19 risk index, CCF consumption level, urbanization level, CCF trade quantity, and others. The risk level of COVID-19 transmission by CCF and the dominant risk types were analyzed at national and global scales as well as at the community level. The results were as follows. (1) The global CCF trade network is typically dominated by six core countries in six main communities, such as Indonesia, Argentina, Ukraine, Netherlands, and the USA. These locations are one of the highest sources of risk for COVID-19 transmission. (2) The risk of COVID-19 transmission by CCF in specific trade communities is higher than the global average, with the Netherlands–Germany community being at the highest level. There are eight European countries (i.e., Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, France, Spain, Britain, Italy, and Poland) and three American countries (namely the USA, Mexico, and Brazil) facing a very high level of COVID-19 transmission risk by CCF. (3) Of the countries, 62% are dominated by internal diffusion and 23% by external input risk. The countries with high comprehensive transmission risk mainly experience risks from external inputs. This study provides methods for tracing the source of virus transmission and provides a policy reference for preventing the chain of COVID-19 transmission by CCF and maintaining the security of the global food supply chain.
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Dakhil, Mohammed A., Ali El-Keblawy, Mohamed A. El-Sheikh, Marwa Waseem A. Halmy, Taoufik Ksiksi, and Walaa A. Hassan. "Global Invasion Risk Assessment of Prosopis juliflora at Biome Level: Does Soil Matter?" Biology 10, no. 3 (March 9, 2021): 203. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/biology10030203.

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Анотація:
Prosopis juliflora is one of the most problematic invasive trees in tropical and subtropical regions. Understanding driving forces affecting the potential global distribution would help in managing its current and future spread. The role of climate on the global spatial distribution of P. juliflora has been well studied, but little is known about the role of soil and human impacts as potential drivers. Here, we used maximum entropy (MaxEnt) for species distribution modelling to understand the role of climate (C), soil (S) and human impacts (H), C+S, and C+S+H in controlling the potential invasion range of P. juliflora, and to project its global potential invasive risk. We defined the top threatened global biomes, as predicted by the best-selected model. The incorporation of the edaphic factors improved the model performance and enhanced the accuracy of the outcome. Our findings revealed that the potential invasion risk increases with increases in mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9), soil alkalinity and clay fractions. Arid and semi-arid lands are at the highest risk of invasion than other moist biomes.
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6

Piyatilake, I. T. S., and S. S. N. Perera. "Fuzzy Multidimensional Model to Cluster Dengue Risk in Sri Lanka." BioMed Research International 2020 (November 4, 2020): 1–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/2420948.

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Анотація:
Dengue is the world’s rapidly transmitting mosquito-borne viral disease. It is mostly found in subtropical countries in the world. The annual number of global deaths caused by dengue fever is about 25,000. The Sri Lanka dengue situation is also not different to other countries. In the year 2019, dengue fever caused 120 deaths in Sri Lanka. Most of these deaths were reported from the main administrative district Colombo. Health authorities have to pay their attention to control this new situation. Therefore, identifying the hot spots in the country and implementing necessary actions to control the disease is an important task. This study aims to develop a clustering technique to identify the dengue hot spots in Sri Lanka. Suitable risk factors are identified using expert ideas and reviewing available literature. The weights are derived using Chang’s extent method. These weights are used to prioritize the factors associated with dengue. Using the geometric mean, the interaction between the triggering variable and other variables is calculated. According to the interaction matrices, five dengue risk clusters are identified. It is found that high population movement in the area plays a dominant role to transmit the disease to other areas. Most of the districts in Sri Lanka will reach to moderate risk cluster in the year 2022.
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Oyelade, Tope, Jaber S. Alqahtani, Ahmed M. Hjazi, Amy Li, Ami Kamila, and Reynie Purnama Raya. "Global and Regional Prevalence and Outcomes of COVID-19 in People Living with HIV: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis." Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease 7, no. 2 (February 3, 2022): 22. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed7020022.

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Анотація:
Background: The relationship between HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) and COVID-19 clinical outcome is uncertain, with conflicting data and hypotheses. We aimed to assess the prevalence of people living with HIV (PLWH) among COVID-19 cases and whether HIV infection affects the risk of severe COVID-19 or related death at the global and continental level. Methods: Electronic databases were systematically searched in July 2021. In total, 966 studies were screened following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Narratives were synthesised and data pooled for the global and continental prevalence of HIV–SARS-CoV-2 coinfection. The relative risks of severity and mortality in HIV-infected COVID-19 patients were computed using a random-effect model. Risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle–Ottawa score and Egger’s test, and presented as funnel plots. Results: In total, 43 studies were included involving 692,032 COVID-19 cases, of whom 9097 (1.3%) were PLWH. The global prevalence of PLWH among COVID-19 cases was 2% (95% CI = 1.7–2.3%), with the highest prevalence observed in sub-Saharan Africa. The relative risk (RR) of severe COVID-19 in PLWH was significant only in Africa (RR = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.05–1.24), while the relative risk of mortality was 1.5 (95% CI = 1.45–2.03) globally. The calculated global risk showed that HIV infection may be linked with increased COVID-19 death. The between-study heterogeneity was significantly high, while the risk of publication bias was not significant. Conclusions: Although there is a low prevalence of PLWH among COVID-19 cases, HIV infection may increase the severity of COVID-19 in Africa and increase the risk of death globally.
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Wang, Feiyu, Chesheng Zhan, and Lei Zou. "Risk of Crop Yield Reduction in China under 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming from CMIP6 Models." Foods 12, no. 2 (January 15, 2023): 413. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/foods12020413.

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Анотація:
Warmer temperatures significantly influence crop yields, which are a critical determinant of food supply and human well-being. In this study, a probabilistic approach based on bivariate copula models was used to investigate the dependence (described by joint distribution) between crop yield and growing season temperature (TGS) in the major producing provinces of China for three staple crops (i.e., rice, wheat, and maize). Based on the outputs of 12 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5, the probability of yield reduction under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming was estimated, which has great implications for agricultural risk management. Results showed that yield response to TGS varied with crop and region, with the most vulnerable being rice in Sichuan, wheat in Sichuan and Gansu, and maize in Shandong, Liaoning, Jilin, Nei Mongol, Shanxi, and Hebei. Among the selected five copulas, Archimedean/elliptical copulas were more suitable to describe the joint distribution between TGS and yield in most rice-/maize-producing provinces. The probability of yield reduction was greater in vulnerable provinces than in non-vulnerable provinces, with maize facing a higher risk of warming-driven yield loss than rice and wheat. Compared to the 1.5 °C global warming, an additional 0.5 °C warming would increase the yield loss risk in vulnerable provinces by 2–17%, 1–16%, and 3–17% for rice, wheat, and maize, respectively. The copula-based model proved to be an effective tool to provide probabilistic estimates of yield reduction due to warming and can be applied to other crops and regions. The results of this study demonstrated the importance of keeping global warming within 1.5 °C to mitigate the yield loss risk and optimize agricultural decision-making in vulnerable regions.
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Tanaka, Tetsuji, Özge Geyik, and Bariş Karapinar. "Short-Term Implications of Climate Shocks on Wheat-Based Nutrient Flows: A Global “Nutrition at Risk” Analysis through a Stochastic CGE Model." Foods 10, no. 6 (June 18, 2021): 1414. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/foods10061414.

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Анотація:
Food security analyses of international trade largely overlook the importance of substantial heterogeneity and complexity of nutrient content in food products. This paper quantifies the extent to which wheat-based nutrient supplies, including energy, protein, iron, zinc, and magnesium, are exposed to the risks of realistic productivity and trade shocks. By employing a static and stochastic world trade computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we find that productivity shocks may result in losses in households’ nutrient consumption of up to 18% for protein, 33.1% for zinc, and 37.4% for magnesium. Significant losses are observed in countries mostly in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia. Since the main centers of wheat exports have recently been shifting to former Soviet Union countries, we also simulated the nutritional risks of export restrictions imposed by the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, which have resorted to this policy instrument in recent years. We find that partial export restrictions increase the probability of nutrient shocks by five times or more in most countries that we studied. Increased nutrient deficiencies have a range of public health implications in the affected countries, which could be mitigated and/or avoided by adjusting production and trade policies and by targeting high nutritional risk groups, such as women and children. Since the potential implications of supply shocks are diffused across countries through international trade, the stricter regulation of export restrictions to enhance the predictably and reliability of global food supplies is also needed.
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Li, Linlin, Zhiyi Fang, Hongning Zhou, Yerong Tang, Xin Wang, Geng Liang, and Fengjun Zhang. "Dengue Risk Forecast with Mosquito Vector: A Multicomponent Fusion Approach Based on Spatiotemporal Analysis." Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine 2022 (June 2, 2022): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/2515432.

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Анотація:
Dengue as an acute infectious disease threatens global public health and has sparked broad research interest. However, existing studies generally ignore the spatial dependencies involved in dengue forecast, and consideration of temporal periodicity is absent. In this work, we propose a spatiotemporal component fusion model (STCFM) to solve the dengue risk forecast issue. Considering that mosquitoes are an important vector of dengue transmission, we introduce feature factors involving mosquito abundance and spatiotemporal lags to model temporal trends and spatial distributions separately on the basis of statistical properties. Specifically, we conduct multiscale modeling of temporal dependencies to enhance the forecast capability of relevant periods by capturing the historical variation patterns of the data across different segments in the temporal dimension. In the spatial dimension, we quantify the multivariate spatial correlation analysis as additional features to strengthen the spatial feature representation and adopt the ConvLSTM model to learn spatial dependencies adequately. The final forecast results are obtained by stacking strategy fusion in ensemble learning. We conduct experiments on real dengue datasets. The results indicate that STCFM improves prediction accuracy through effective spatiotemporal feature representations and outperforms candidate models with a reasonable component construction strategy.
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Більше джерел

Дисертації з теми "Global microbiologal risk model"

1

Rost, Nicolas. "A Global Risk Assessment Model for Civil Wars." [S.l. : s.n.], 2006. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:352-opus-23361.

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2

Feller, Brian (Brian C. ). "Development of a total landed cost and risk analysis model for global strategic sourcing." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/43828.

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Анотація:
Thesis (M.B.A.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management; and, (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division; in conjunction with the Leaders for Manufacturing Program at MIT, 2008.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 122-123).
Total landed cost and supply chain risk analysis are methods that many companies use to assess strategic sourcing decisions. For this project, landed cost is defined as those costs associated with material movement from a supplier to a designated PerkinElmer, Inc. (PKI) manufacturing site. Tools or models that are available in the technology marketplace are often too cumbersome to incorporate with a company's existing technology architecture or are too simplistic to compute an accurate landed cost. For PerkinElmer, as their Analytical Sciences business continues to grow globally, they are continuously reviewing their supplier portfolio and assessing their procurement strategy. The landed cost and risk analysis tool consists of two components, a cost model and a risk analysis model. Both models were developed to allow PKI to better understand the savings opportunities associated with a supplier selection. When performing supply chain modeling and cost optimization, it was necessary to be able to evaluate multiple scenarios that can influence a sourcing decision. Therefore, by changing parameters such as transportation mode, lead time, inventory carrying cost, freight cost, order frequency, and order quantities in the dynamic cost model, PKI is able to understand supply chain cost trade-offs. The model developed for this project is dynamic to allow multi-variable scenarios to be assessed simultaneously, thus increasing the overall analysis efficiency. For the risk analysis model, approximately 20 different factors were considered as a part of a risk portfolio. This concept adapts traditional financial investment portfolio management theory by considering how much operational impact one factor may have on PKI.
(cont.) The concept is to consider a diversified portfolio, so all of the possible risk incurred by a sourcing decision does not reside in any one "category" (logistics, inventory, etc.). The outcome of the model is an index and adjusted cost, providing PKI with an estimate of the potential cost of doing business with a supplier based on their risk profile.
by Brian Feller.
S.M.
M.B.A.
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3

Holst, David, and Anton Norberg. "Studie av Global Risk Appetite Index : Hur kan det användas för att förbättra trendföljande strategier?" Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för teknikvetenskaper, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-300800.

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Анотація:
Ett vanligt förekommande problem för investerare som använder trendföljande strategier är att de ofta hamnar felpositionerade när en trend tar slut. I den här studien visas hur ett riskaptitsindex, Global Risk Appetite Index (GRAI), kan användas för att förutspå dessa trendbrott och på så sätt förbättra trendföljande strategiers prestation. Indexet implementeras som indikator i tre olika trendföljande strategier och lyckas under rätt förutsättningar förbättra alla strategiernas prestation, under backtesting över de senaste 16 åren. Strategierna presterar generellt bäst, det vill säga ger högst avkastning i förhållande till risken, då signal att marknaden kommer vända ges 2-3 veckor efter att indexet når någon av extremzonerna panik eller eufori. Extremzonerna definieras som 5:e respektive 95:e percentilen av indexets värde under en tidsperiod bakåt i tiden. Bäst resultat erhålls då denna tidsperiod är 2-3 år.  Vidare undersöks alternativa sätt att beräkna Global Risk Appetite Index. Tillgångarna som studeras för att ge en bild av riskaptiten varieras och det visar sig att en version som endast studerar sex olika marknadsindex förbättrar de trendföljande strategierna mest, vilket är en klar förenkling över de 64 tillgångar som används i den ursprungliga versionen av indexet.
A regular problem for investment managers who use trend following strategies are that they often find themselves badly positioned when at the end of a trend. In this study it is shown how a risk appetite index, Global Risk Appetite Index (GRAI), can be used in order to predict these trend breaks and thereby improve the performance of trend following strategies. The index is implemented as an indicator for three different trend following strategies and given the right parameters, the return of all three strategies is increased during backtesting on data from the previous 16 years. In general, the strategies give the highest return in relation to risk when signal that the trend will reverse is given 2 to 3 weeks after the index reaches one of the extreme zones, Panic or Euphoria. These extreme zones are calculated as vales under the 5:th or over the 95:th percentile of the index’s value over a certain window back in time. The best result is achieved when this timespan is 2 to 3 years. Furthermore, alternate ways to calculate Global Risk Appetite Index are studied. The assets that are analysed in order to quantify the risk appetite are varied and it is shown that a version of GRAI analyzing only 6 more summarizing market indices give better results when used in trend following models. This is a clear simplification from the 64 assets used in the original version of the index.
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4

Alshammari, Sultanah. "A Data-Driven Computational Framework to Assess the Risk of Epidemics at Global Mass Gatherings." Thesis, University of North Texas, 2019. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc1505145/.

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Анотація:
This dissertation presents a data-driven computational epidemic framework to simulate disease epidemics at global mass gatherings. The annual Muslim pilgrimage to Makkah, Saudi Arabia is used to demonstrate the simulation and analysis of various disease transmission scenarios throughout the different stages of the event from the arrival to the departure of international participants. The proposed agent-based epidemic model efficiently captures the demographic, spatial, and temporal heterogeneity at each stage of the global event of Hajj. Experimental results indicate the substantial impact of the demographic and mobility patterns of the heterogeneous population of pilgrims on the progression of the disease spread in the different stages of Hajj. In addition, these simulations suggest that the differences in the spatial and temporal settings in each stage can significantly affect the dynamic of the disease. Finally, the epidemic simulations conducted at the different stages in this dissertation illustrate the impact of the differences between the duration of each stage in the event and the length of the infectious and latent periods. This research contributes to a better understanding of epidemic modeling in the context of global mass gatherings to predict the risk of disease pandemics caused by associated international travel. The computational modeling and disease spread simulations in global mass gatherings provide public health authorities with powerful tools to assess the implication of these events at a different scale and to evaluate the efficacy of control strategies to reduce their potential impacts.
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5

Ballout, Rami, and Fredrik Nygård. "Can intangibles lead to superior returns? : Global evidence on the relationship between employee satisfaction and abnormal equity returns." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Företagsekonomi, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-73263.

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Анотація:
Subject background and discussion: In recent decades, issues of human rights, labor and environmental change has been hot topics world wide, which also has influenced the financial market. More and more investors use socially responsible investing (SRI) screens when constructing their portfolios. One form of SRI screen is to choose companies that have satisfied employees. Existing theory says that employee satisfaction is an intangible asset to the firm that will positively affect a firm’s performance in the future. Intangible assets are often unrecognized by the market and thereby not incorporated in the stock price. The efficient market hypothesis has been studied and debated for several decades. Proponents of the EMH argue that all available information is incorporated in the stock price, thus it is not possible to systematically beat the market. However, EMH is controversial, since research has shown different results regarding the possibility to make abnormal return from various investing strategy. Research question: Is it possible to make abnormal returns by investing in a portfolio of worldwide firms with top scores on the SRI screen employee satisfaction? Purpose: The main purpose of this study is to examine investor’s possibility to make abnormal return with controls for multiple risk factors by investing in worldwide firms with top scores in employee satisfaction. One sub-purpose is to examine how the market values intangibles depending on the degree of market efficiency. Another sub-purpose of the study is to test two different portfolio weighting methodologies, equally- and value weighted, and observe the differences between them. Theory: This study deals with the efficient market hypothesis and the concepts of SRI, employee satisfaction, intangible assets and several risk-adjusted measurements. Method: We have chosen to perform a quantitative study with a deductive approach to answer our research question. We used a sample size of 696 firms based on “Great Place to Works”- lists of companies with high employee satisfaction to construct sex portfolios with different holding periods and strategies. These portfolios have been explored and tested significantly with both equally and value weighted methods. Result/Analysis: The study finds significant evidence of an average annual abnormal return of 3,66% and 2,43% for our main portfolio over the market for equally- and value weighted, respectively, using the three-factor model. When adjusting for momentum, thus employing the four-factor model, all the predictive variables still identify strong persistence in the abnormal return, with statistical significance. Conclusion: The results show that it is possible to make abnormal returns, during the observed time period, regardless of the weighing methodology, although the equally weighted received higher abnormal returns. Thus, the market efficiency appears to be in weak form and does not fully value intangibles.
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6

Jančíková, Kateřina. "Ekonomická analýza vybraného podniku." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Ústav soudního inženýrství, 2016. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-241285.

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Анотація:
This thesis examines part of financial analysis focused on financial risks arising from the results of the financial analysis. The theoretical part defines the basic concepts of financial analysis, including formulas necessary for the analytical part of the work. Further defines the terms relating to the areas of risk, risk analysis and risk reduction methods. The analytical part is concerned with the present state of the selected company. The final section contains suggestions for improving the financing and stabilization of the company.
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7

Seedat, Ássia Mahomed. "A internacionalização das Born Globals : o caso de duas empresas portuguesas." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/11236.

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Анотація:
Mestrado em Gestão e Estratégia Industrial
O presente trabalho visa compreender o processo de internacionalização das designadas born globals. Estas caraterizam-se pela internacionalização precoce, abordando o mercado externo numa perspetiva diferente do modelo de Uppsala. O estudo suporta-se numa metodologia de natureza qualitativa, em dois estudos de caso de born globals portuguesas do setor das tecnologias de informação. A evidência empírica realçou a importância do empreendedor e das redes de relacionamento no processo de internacionalização e crescimento dessas empresas. Apesar disso, os resultados indicam que não existe uma rutura completa com o modelo de Uppsala. Nas suas decisões de internacionalização, as empresas tendem a associar os critérios de proximidade física e psíquica com os critérios do perfil do empreendedor e das redes de relacionamento.
The goal of this research is to understand the internalization process of the born globals. They are characterized by premature internalization approaching the external market with a different perspective than that of Uppsala Model. The study is supported by a qualitative method, with case studies of two portuguese born globals in the information technology sector. The empirical evidence highlighted the importance of the entrepreneur and the networking in the internalization process and development of these companies. Despite this, the results indicate that there is not a complete break with the Uppsala Model. In the internalization decision the companies should associate the physic and psychic proximity with the criteria of the entrepreneur and networking.
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8

Henrik, Hasseltoft. "Essays on the term structure of interest rates and long-run risks." Doctoral thesis, Handelshögskolan i Stockholm, Finansiell Ekonomi (FI), 2009. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hhs:diva-925.

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Stocks, Bonds, and Long-Run Consumption Risks. Bansal and Yaron (2004) show that long-run consumption risks and time-varying economic uncertainty in conjunction with recursive preferences can account for important features of equity markets. I bring the model to the term structure of interest rates and show that a calibrated version of the model can simultaneously explain properties of bonds and equities. Specifically, the model accounts for deviations from the expectations hypothesis, the upward sloping nominal yield curve, and the predictive power of the nominal yield spread. However, an estimation of the model using Simulated Method of Moments yields less convincing results and illustrates the difficulty of precisely estimating parameters of the model. Real (nominal) interest rates in the model are positively (negatively) correlated with consumption growth and real stock returns move inversely with inflation. The cyclicality of nominal interest rates and yield spreads is shown to depend on the relative values of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution and the correlation between real consumption growth and inflation. The “Fed-model” and the Changing Correlation of Stock and Bond Returns: An Equilibrium Approach. This paper presents an equilibrium model that provides a rational explanation for two features of data that have been considered puzzling: The positive relation between US dividend yields and nominal interest rates, often called the Fed-model, and the time-varying correlation of US stock and bond returns. Key ingredients are time-varying first and second moments of consumption growth, inflation, and dividend growth in conjunction with Epstein-Zin and Weil recursive preferences. Historically in the US, inflation has signaled low future consumption growth. The representative agent therefore dislikes positive inflation shocks and demands a positive risk premium for holding assets that are poor inflation hedges, such as equity and nominal bonds. As a result, risk premiums on equity and nominal bonds comove positively through their exposure to macroeconomic volatility. This generates a positive correlation between dividend yields and nominal yields and between stock and bond returns. High levels of macro volatility in the late 1970s and early 1980s caused stock and bond returns to comove strongly. The subsequent moderation in aggregate economic risk has brought correlations lower. The model is able to produce correlations that can switch sign by including the covariances between consumption growth, inflation, and dividend growth as state variables. International Bond Risk Premia. We extend Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005, CP) to international bond markets by constructing forecasting factors for bond excess returns across different countries. While the international evidence for predictability is weak using Fama and Bliss (1987) regressions, we document that local CP factors have significant predictive power. We also construct a global CP factor and provide evidence that it predicts bond returns with high R2 across countries. The local and global factors are jointly significant when included as regressors, which suggests that variation in bond excess returns are driven by country-specific factors and a common global factor. Shocks to US bond risk premia seem to be particularly important determinants for international bond premia. Motivated by these results, we estimate a parsimonious no-arbitrage affine term structure model in which risk premia are driven by one local and one global CP factor. We find that international bond risk premia are driven by a local slope factor and a world interest rate level factor.
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9

Everling, Nils. "Extending the explanatory power of factor pricing models using topic modeling." Thesis, KTH, Skolan för datavetenskap och kommunikation (CSC), 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-210253.

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Factor models attribute stock returns to a linear combination of factors. A model with great explanatory power (R2) can be used to estimate the systematic risk of an investment. One of the most important factors is the industry which the company of the stock operates in. In commercial risk models this factor is often determined with a manually constructed stock classification scheme such as GICS. We present Natural Language Industry Scheme (NLIS), an automatic and multivalued classification scheme based on topic modeling. The topic modeling is performed on transcripts of company earnings calls and identifies a number of topics analogous to industries. We use non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) on a term-document matrix of the transcripts to perform the topic modeling. When set to explain returns of the MSCI USA index we find that NLIS consistently outperforms GICS, often by several hundred basis points. We attribute this to NLIS’ ability to assign a stock to multiple industries. We also suggest that the proportions of industry assignments for a given stock could correspond to expected future revenue sources rather than current revenue sources. This property could explain some of NLIS’ success since it closely relates to theoretical stock pricing.
Faktormodeller förklarar aktieprisrörelser med en linjär kombination av faktorer. En modell med hög förklaringsgrad (R2) kan användas föratt skatta en investerings systematiska risk. En av de viktigaste faktorerna är aktiebolagets industritillhörighet. I kommersiella risksystem bestäms industri oftast med ett aktieklassifikationsschema som GICS, publicerat av ett finansiellt institut. Vi presenterar Natural Language Industry Scheme (NLIS), ett automatiskt klassifikationsschema baserat på topic modeling. Vi utför topic modeling på transkript av aktiebolags investerarsamtal. Detta identifierar ämnen, eller topics, som är jämförbara med industrier. Topic modeling sker genom icke-negativmatrisfaktorisering (NMF) på en ord-dokumentmatris av transkripten. När NLIS används för att förklara prisrörelser hos MSCI USA-indexet finner vi att NLIS överträffar GICS, ofta med 2-3 procent. Detta tillskriver vi NLIS förmåga att ge flera industritillhörigheter åt samma aktie. Vi föreslår också att proportionerna hos industritillhörigheterna för en aktie kan motsvara förväntade inkomstkällor snarare än nuvarande inkomstkällor. Denna egenskap kan också vara en anledning till NLIS framgång då den nära relaterar till teoretisk aktieprissättning.
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10

Starý, Jan. "Specifika finančního řízení stavebního podniku v období ekonomické nestability." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta stavební, 2013. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-226028.

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This thesis on specifics of financial management construction company in a time of economic instability is accompanied by the issue of management companies in times of crisis. It is divided into two parts: a theoretical and practical. The theoretical part is focused on explaining concepts such as crisis and the company, which is followed by the very notion of crisis management. It describes how to recognize the crisis in the company and what tools can be used to solve it. The practical part looks at this from the perspective of management small and large companies, both have very similar content activities. In terms of big companies is being explored as a joint stock company Strabag, which is part of the Austrian multinational corporations. At the level of small business is focused on a limited liability company, which is active in smaler district. The main source of investigation in this thesis is the financial analysis applied to both companies. At the end of the work, the results of both companies compared.
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Книги з теми "Global microbiologal risk model"

1

Ferson, Wayne E. Sources of risk and expected returns in global equity markets. Cambridge, Mass: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1994.

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2

Ferson, Wayne E. Economic, financial, and fundamental global risk in and out of the EMU. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1999.

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3

Financial Origami: How the Wall Street Model Broke. Hoboken, New Jersey: Bloomberg Press, an imprint of Wiley, 2011.

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4

Choudhry, Moorad. The future of finance: A new model for banking and investment. Hoboken, N.J: Wiley, 2010.

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5

Gino, Landuyt, ed. The future of finance: A new model for banking and investment. Hoboken, N.J: Wiley, 2011.

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6

Stelios, Marcoulis, ed. Risk and return in transportation and other US and global industries. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001.

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7

Moynihan, Brendan. Financial Origami: How the Wall Street Model Broke. Wiley & Sons, Incorporated, John, 2011.

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Moynihan, Brendan. Financial Origami: How the Wall Street Model Broke. Wiley & Sons, Incorporated, John, 2011.

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9

Moynihan, Brendan. Financial Origami: How the Wall Street Model Broke. Wiley & Sons, Incorporated, John, 2011.

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10

De Forges, Sabine Lemoyne, Ruben Bibas, and Stéphane Hallegatte. A Dynamic Model of Extreme Risk Coverage: Resilience and Efficiency in the Global Reinsurance Market. The World Bank, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-5807.

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Частини книг з теми "Global microbiologal risk model"

1

Comfort, Louise K., and Mary Lee Rhodes. "A Learning Model for Managing Global Risk?" In Global Risk Management, 274–83. New York: Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003253280-14.

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2

Sato, Kanji. "A Simplified Simulation Model for Country Risk Evaluation." In Global Interdependence, 337. Tokyo: Springer Japan, 1992. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-68189-2_63.

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3

Smith, Rob. "Getting to Global - Building a global supply chain network model." In Global Supply Chain Performance and Risk Optimization, 89–124. Wiesbaden: Deutscher Universitätsverlag, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-322-81407-4_3.

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4

Dore, Mohammed H. "Computing a Model for Asset Management with Risk." In Global Drinking Water Management and Conservation, 175–96. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-11032-5_8.

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5

Floreani, Josanco, and Maurizio Polato. "A Risk-Adjusted Model for Peformance Measurement." In The Economics of the Global Stock Exchange Industry, 164–97. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137321831_6.

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6

Crowley, Helen, and Rui Pinho. "Global Earthquake Model: Community-Based Seismic Risk Assessment." In Protection of Built Environment Against Earthquakes, 3–19. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-1448-9_1.

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Stark, Oded. "A unified model of relative deprivation and risk-laden migration." In Global Labour in Distress, Volume I, 67–73. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-89258-6_4.

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8

Erevelles, Sunil, Carolyn Galantine, Ayse Acikgoz, Ana Marinova, and Veronica Horton. "Managing Country Risk in Global Marketing: The Triadic Model." In Proceedings of the 2000 Academy of Marketing Science (AMS) Annual Conference, 412–16. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-11885-7_110.

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9

Arumugam, Chamundeswari, Sriraghav Kameswaran, and Baskaran Kaliamourthy. "Risk Assessment Framework: ADRIM Process Model for Global Software Development." In Towards Extensible and Adaptable Methods in Computing, 3–12. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-2348-5_1.

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Willis, David Blake, Satoshi Yamamura, and Jeremy Rappleye. "Frontiers of Education: Japan As “Global Model” or “Nation At Risk”?" In Living Together, 207–29. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-9816-1_13.

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Тези доповідей конференцій з теми "Global microbiologal risk model"

1

Lee, Su-Dong, and Chi-Hyuck Jun. "Hypertension Risk Prediction Using Two-stage Logistic Model Tree." In Annual Global Healthcare Conference. Global Science & Technology Forum (GSTF), 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.5176/2251-3833_ghc15.57.

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Yang, Zhengguo, Yuto Lim, and Yasuo Tan. "A risk model for indoor environment safety." In 2017 IEEE 6th Global Conference on Consumer Electronics (GCCE). IEEE, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/gcce.2017.8229306.

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3

Manjari, K. Geetha, and G. L. Sivakumar Babu. "Global Sensitivity Analysis of Groundwater-Radionuclide Transport Model from Near Surface Disposal Facilities." In Geo-Risk 2017. Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/9780784480724.049.

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4

Zheng, Yuhua. "Risk Management: VaR Model for Information Disclosure." In 2012 International Conference on Business Computing and Global Informatization (BCGIN). IEEE, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/bcgin.2012.54.

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5

Devoid, Wayne. "Multi-Resolution Global Population Model for Overflight Risk Analyses." In AIAA Atmospheric Flight Mechanics Conference and Exhibit. Reston, Virigina: American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.2514/6.2006-6503.

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6

Shimazu, Masahiko, Atsushi Kanai, Shigeki Tanimoto, and Hiroyuki Sato. "Dynamic risk evaluation model as a security field." In 2015 IEEE 4th Global Conference on Consumer Electronics (GCCE). IEEE, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/gcce.2015.7398641.

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Alekina, E. V. "Conceptual Model Of Professional Risk Management." In GCPMED 2018 - International Scientific Conference "Global Challenges and Prospects of the Modern Economic Development. Cognitive-Crcs, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.15405/epsbs.2019.03.159.

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Abdukadir, Guzalnur, and Lijun Wu. "Discrete Time Risk Model with Discounted Rate." In 2014 International Conference on Global Economy, Finance and Humanities Research (GEFHR 2014). Paris, France: Atlantis Press, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/gefhr-14.2014.21.

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Apostolopoulos, Pavlos Athanasios, Eirini Eleni Tsiropoulou, and Symeon Papavassiliou. "Risk-Aware Social Cloud Computing Based on Serverless Computing Model." In GLOBECOM 2019 - 2019 IEEE Global Communications Conference. IEEE, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/globecom38437.2019.9013182.

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10

Bulava, I. V. "Integrated Risk Management Model Of The Company." In GCPMED 2018 - International Scientific Conference "Global Challenges and Prospects of the Modern Economic Development. Cognitive-Crcs, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.15405/epsbs.2019.03.14.

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Звіти організацій з теми "Global microbiologal risk model"

1

Gómez-Pineda, Javier Guillermo. Volatility spillovers and systemic risk across economies : evidence from a global semi-structural model. Bogotá, Colombia: Banco de la República, September 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/be.1011.

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2

Hobbs, T. E., J. M. Journeay, A. S. Rao, L. Martins, P. LeSueur, M. Kolaj, M. Simionato, et al. Scientific basis of Canada's first public national seismic risk model. Natural Resources Canada/CMSS/Information Management, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4095/330927.

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Natural Resources Canada, in partnership with the Global Earthquake Model Foundation, has prepared a public Canadian Seismic Risk Model to support disaster risk reduction efforts across industry and all levels of government, and to aid in Canada's adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. Developing this model has involved the creation of a national exposure inventory, Canadian specific fragility and vulnerability curves, and adjustment of the Canadian Seismic Hazard Model which forms the basis for the seismic provisions of the National Building Code of Canada. Using the Global Earthquake Model Foundation's OpenQuake Engine (OQ), risk modelling is completed using both deterministic and probabilistic risk calculations, under baseline and simulated retrofit conditions. Output results are available in all settled regions of Canada, at the scale of a neighbourhood or smaller. We report on expected shaking damage to buildings, financial losses, fatalities, and other impacts such as housing disruption and the generation of debris. This paper documents the technical details of the modelling approach including a description of novel datasets in use, as well as preliminary results for a magnitude 9.0 earthquake on the Cascadia megathrust and nation-wide 500 year expected probabilistic losses. These kinds of results, such as earthquake scenario impacts, loss exceedance curves, and annual average losses, provide a quantitative base of evidence for decision making at local, regional, and national levels.
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3

Valencia, Oscar, Juan José Díaz, and Diego A. Parra. Assessing Macro-Fiscal Risk for Latin American and Caribbean Countries. Inter-American Development Bank, November 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0004530.

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This paper provides a comprehensive early warning system (EWS) that balances the classical signaling approach with the best-realized machine learning (ML) model for predicting fiscal stress episodes. Using accumulated local effects (ALE), we compute a set of thresholds for the most informative variables that drive the correlation between predictors. In addition, to evaluate the main country risks, we propose a leading fiscal risk indicator, highlighting macro, fiscal and institutional attributes. Estimates from different models suggest significant heterogeneity among the most critical variables in determining fiscal risk across countries. While macro variables have higher relevance for advanced countries, fiscal variables were more significant for Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) and emerging economies. These results are consistent under different liquidity-solvency metrics and have deepened since the global financial crisis.
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4

Kim, Changmo, Ghazan Khan, Brent Nguyen, and Emily L. Hoang. Development of a Statistical Model to Predict Materials’ Unit Prices for Future Maintenance and Rehabilitation in Highway Life Cycle Cost Analysis. Mineta Transportation Institute, December 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.31979/mti.2020.1806.

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The main objectives of this study are to investigate the trends in primary pavement materials’ unit price over time and to develop statistical models and guidelines for using predictive unit prices of pavement materials instead of uniform unit prices in life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) for future maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) projects. Various socio-economic data were collected for the past 20 years (1997–2018) in California, including oil price, population, government expenditure in transportation, vehicle registration, and other key variables, in order to identify factors affecting pavement materials’ unit price. Additionally, the unit price records of the popular pavement materials were categorized by project size (small, medium, large, and extra-large). The critical variables were chosen after identifying their correlations, and the future values of each variable were predicted through time-series analysis. Multiple regression models using selected socio-economic variables were developed to predict the future values of pavement materials’ unit price. A case study was used to compare the results between the uniform unit prices in the current LCCA procedures and the unit prices predicted in this study. In LCCA, long-term prediction involves uncertainties due to unexpected economic trends and industrial demand and supply conditions. Economic recessions and a global pandemic are examples of unexpected events which can have a significant influence on variations in material unit prices and project costs. Nevertheless, the data-driven scientific approach as described in this research reduces risk caused by such uncertainties and enables reasonable predictions for the future. The statistical models developed to predict the future unit prices of the pavement materials through this research can be implemented to enhance the current LCCA procedure and predict more realistic unit prices and project costs for the future M&R activities, thus promoting the most cost-effective alternative in LCCA.
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5

Gamboa-Estrada, Fredy, and Jose Vicente Romero. Modelling CDS Volatility at Different Tenures: An Application for Latin-American Countries. Banco de la República de Colombia, May 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/be.1199.

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Assessing the dynamics of risk premium measures and its relationship with macroeconomic fundamentals is important for both macroeconomic policymakers and market practitioners. This paper analyzes the main determinants of CDS in Latin-America at different tenures, focusing on their volatility. Using a component GARCH model, we decompose volatility between permanent and transitory components. We find that the permanent component of CDS volatility in all tenors was higher and more persistent in the global financial crisis than during the recent COVID-19 shock. JEL Classification: C22, C58, G01, G15. Keywords: Credit default swaps (CDS), CDS in Latin-American countries, sovereign risk, volatility, crisis, component GARCH models
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6

Jung, Paul H., Jean-Claude Thill, and Luis Armando Galvis-Aponte. State Failure, Violence, and Trade: Dangerous Trade Routes in Colombia. Banco de la República, December 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/dtseru.303.

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We investigate the effect of domestic armed violence brought about by political instability on the geography of distance frictions in freight mobility and the resulting differential access of regions to global markets. The Colombian transportation system has been found to be impeded by deficiencies in landside transport infrastructure and institutions, and by fragmented political environments. The micro-level analysis of U.S.-bounded export shipping records corroborates that export freight shipping from inland regions is re-routed to avoid exposures to domestic armed violence despite greatly extended landside and maritime shipping distances. We exploit the trajectories of freight shipping from Colombian regions and spatial patterns of violent armed conflicts to see how unstable geopolitical environments are detrimental to freight shipping mobility and market openness. The discrete choice model shows that the shipping flow is greatly curbed by the extended re-routing due to domestic armed violence and that inland regions have restricted access to the global market. The perception of risk and re-routing behavior is found heterogeneous across shipments and conditional to shipment characteristics, such as commodity type, freight value and shipper sizes. The results highlight that political stability must be accommodated for improved freight mobility and export-oriented economic development in the global South.
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Mathew, Sonu, Srinivas S. Pulugurtha, and Sarvani Duvvuri. Modeling and Predicting Geospatial Teen Crash Frequency. Mineta Transportation Institute, June 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.31979/mti.2022.2119.

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This research project 1) evaluates the effect of road network, demographic, and land use characteristics on road crashes involving teen drivers, and, 2) develops and compares the predictability of local and global regression models in estimating teen crash frequency. The team considered data for 201 spatially distributed road segments in Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, USA for the evaluation and obtained data related to teen crashes from the Highway Safety Information System (HSIS) database. The team extracted demographic and land use characteristics using two different buffer widths (0.25 miles and 0.5 miles) at each selected road segment, with the number of crashes on each road segment used as the dependent variable. The generalized linear models with negative binomial distribution (GLM-based NB model) as well as the geographically weighted negative binomial regression (GWNBR) and geographically weighted negative binomial regression model with global dispersion (GWNBRg) were developed and compared. This research relied on data for 147 geographically distributed road segments for modeling and data for 49 segments for validation. The annual average daily traffic (AADT), light commercial land use, light industrial land use, number of household units, and number of pupils enrolled in public or private high schools are significant explanatory variables influencing the teen crash frequency. Both methods have good predictive capabilities and can be used to estimate the teen crash frequency. However, the GWNBR and GWNBRg better capture the spatial dependency and spatial heterogeneity among road teen crashes and the associated risk factors.
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8

Vecherin, Sergey, Stephen Ketcham, Aaron Meyer, Kyle Dunn, Jacob Desmond, and Michael Parker. Short-range near-surface seismic ensemble predictions and uncertainty quantification for layered medium. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), September 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/45300.

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To make a prediction for seismic signal propagation, one needs to specify physical properties and subsurface ground structure of the site. This information is frequently unknown or estimated with significant uncertainty. This paper describes a methodology for probabilistic seismic ensemble prediction for vertically stratified soils and short ranges with no in situ site characterization. Instead of specifying viscoelastic site properties, the methodology operates with probability distribution functions of these properties taking into account analytical and empirical relationships among viscoelastic variables. This yields ensemble realizations of signal arrivals at specified locations where statistical properties of the signals can be estimated. Such ensemble predictions can be useful for preliminary site characterization, for military applications, and risk analysis for remote or inaccessible locations for which no data can be acquired. Comparison with experiments revealed that measured signals are not always within the predicted ranges of variability. Variance-based global sensitivity analysis has shown that the most significant parameters for signal amplitude predictions in the developed stochastic model are the uncertainty in the shear quality factor and the Poisson ratio above the water table depth.
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9

Erkamo, Sanna, Karoliina Pilli-Sihvola, Atte Harjanne, and Heikki Tuomenvirta. Climate Security and Finland – A Review on Security Implications of Climate Change from the Finnish Perspective. Finnish Meteorological Institute, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.35614/isbn.9789523361362.

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This report describes the effects of climate change for Finland from the view of comprehensive security. The report examines both direct and indirect climate security risks as well as transition risks related to climate change mitigation. The report is based on previous research and expert interviews. Direct security risks refer to the immediate risks caused by the changing nature of natural hazards. These include the risks to critical infrastructure and energy systems, the logistics system, health and food security. Indirect security risks relate to the potential economic, political and geopolitical impacts of climate change. Climate change can affect global migration, increase conflict risk, and cause social tensions and inequality. Transition risks are related to economic and technological changes in energy transition, as well as political and geopolitical tensions and social problems caused by climate change mitigation policies. Reducing the use of fossil fuels can result in domestic and foreign policy tensions and economic pressure especially in locations dependent on fossil fuels. Political tension can also increase the risks associated with hybrid and information warfare. The security effects of climate change affect all sectors of society and the Finnish comprehensive security model should be utilized in preparing for them. In the short run, the most substantial arising climate change related security risks in Finland are likely to occur through indirect or transition risks. Finland, similar to other wealthy countries, has better technological, economic and institutional conditions to deal with the problems and risks posed by climate change than many other countries. However, this requires political will and focus on risk reduction and management.
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Diop, Ahmed. Country Diagnostic Study – Senegal. Islamic Development Bank Institute, October 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.55780/rp21003.

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The Country Diagnostic Study (CDS) for Senegal uses the Hausmann-Rodrik-Velasco growth diagnostics model to identify the binding constraints being faced in its quest for higher and more sustained economic growth and make recommendations to relax these constraints. Hence, the findings of the CDS can help the Islamic Development Bank in identifying areas where it can have a greater impact and provide an evidence-basis to support the development of the Member Country Partnership Strategy. After decades of subdued and highly volatile economic growth due to heavy dependence on primary commodities and low productivity, Senegal experienced an unprecedented growth acceleration from 2014 to 2019. However, there appeared to be a weak correlation between economic growth and jobs creation. In addition, about 90 percent of non-agricultural employment is estimated to be informal. The national poverty rate decreased by 5 percentage points between 2011 and 2018. Nonetheless, the absolute number of poor people has increased. Furthermore, regional disparities are persistent. Despite the country’s solid performance in the field of governance, further simplification and transparency of business procedures and regulations will be critical in addressing the challenge of informality. Efforts to address informality in the economy should also target the issue of access to finance through the design of financing mechanisms based on specific needs assessment and risk management tools. Senegal will also need to create the conditions for higher competitiveness and follow upgrading trajectories in global and regional value chains. In this respect, both physical and digital connectivity will be essential.
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