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Добірка наукової літератури з теми "Forcing of climate"

Автор: Grafiati

Опубліковано: 10 лютого 2024

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Статті в журналах з теми "Forcing of climate"

Forster, Piers Mde F., and Karl E. Taylor. "Climate Forcings and Climate Sensitivities Diagnosed from Coupled Climate Model Integrations." Journal of Climate 19, no. 23 (December 1, 2006): 6181–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3974.1.

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Abstract A simple technique is proposed for calculating global mean climate forcing from transient integrations of coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). This “climate forcing” differs from the conventionally defined radiative forcing as it includes semidirect effects that account for certain short time scale responses in the troposphere. First, a climate feedback term is calculated from reported values of 2 × CO2 radiative forcing and surface temperature time series from 70-yr simulations by 20 AOGCMs. In these simulations carbon dioxide is increased by 1% yr−1. The derived climate feedback agrees well with values that are diagnosed from equilibrium climate change experiments of slab-ocean versions of the same models. These climate feedback terms are associated with the fast, quasi-linear response of lapse rate, clouds, water vapor, and albedo to global surface temperature changes. The importance of the feedbacks is gauged by their impact on the radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere. Partial compensation is found between longwave and shortwave feedback terms that lessens the intermodel differences in the equilibrium climate sensitivity. There is also some indication that the AOGCMs overestimate the strength of the positive longwave feedback. These feedback terms are then used to infer the shortwave and longwave time series of climate forcing in twentieth- and twenty-first-century simulations in the AOGCMs. The technique is validated using conventionally calculated forcing time series from four AOGCMs. In these AOGCMs the shortwave and longwave climate forcings that are diagnosed agree with the conventional forcing time series within ∼10%. The shortwave forcing time series exhibit order of magnitude variations between the AOGCMs, differences likely related to how both natural forcings and/or anthropogenic aerosol effects are included. There are also factor of 2 differences in the longwave climate forcing time series, which may indicate problems with the modeling of well-mixed greenhouse gas changes. The simple diagnoses presented provides an important and useful first step for understanding differences in AOGCM integrations, indicating that some of the differences in model projections can be attributed to different prescribed climate forcing, even for so-called standard climate change scenarios.

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Hansen, J., M. Sato, A. Lacis, and R. Ruedy. "The missing climate forcing." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences 352, no. 1350 (February 28, 1997): 231–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.1997.0018.

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Observed climate change is consistent with radiative forcings on several time–scales for which the dominant forcings are known, ranging from the few years after a large volcanic eruption to glacial–to–interglacial changes. In the period with most detailed data, 1979 to the present, climate observations contain clear signatures of both natural and anthropogenic forcings. But in the full period since the industrial revolution began, global warming is only about half of that expected due to the principal forcing, increasing greenhouse gases. The direct radiative effect of anthropogenic aerosols contributes only little towards resolving this discrepancy. Unforced climate variability is an unlikely explanation. We argue on the basis of several lines of indirect evidence that aerosol effects on clouds have caused a large negative forcing, at least −1 Wm −2 , which has substantially offset greenhouse warming. The tasks of observing this forcing and determining the microphysical mechanisms at its basis are exceptionally difficult, but they are essential for the prognosis of future climate change.

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Hansen, James, Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha, Gary Russell, David W. Lea, and Mark Siddall. "Climate change and trace gases." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 365, no. 1856 (May 18, 2007): 1925–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2007.2052.

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Palaeoclimate data show that the Earth's climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. One feedback, the ‘albedo flip’ property of ice/water, provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that ‘flips’ the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm. Inertia of ice sheet and ocean provides only moderate delay to ice sheet disintegration and a burst of added global warming. Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is the largest human-made climate forcing, but other trace constituents are also important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow CO 2 emissions and reduce non-CO 2 forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years. The most important of the non-CO 2 forcings is methane (CH 4 ), as it causes the second largest human-made GHG climate forcing and is the principal cause of increased tropospheric ozone (O 3 ), which is the third largest GHG forcing. Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) should also be a focus of climate mitigation efforts. Black carbon (‘black soot’) has a high global warming potential (approx. 2000, 500 and 200 for 20, 100 and 500 years, respectively) and deserves greater attention. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes, so concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could preserve Arctic ice, while also having major benefits for human health, agricultural productivity and the global environment.

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Ramaswamy, V., W. Collins, J. Haywood, J. Lean, N. Mahowald, G. Myhre, V. Naik, et al. "Radiative Forcing of Climate: The Historical Evolution of the Radiative Forcing Concept, the Forcing Agents and their Quantification, and Applications." Meteorological Monographs 59 (January 1, 2019): 14.1–14.101. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/amsmonographs-d-19-0001.1.

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Abstract We describe the historical evolution of the conceptualization, formulation, quantification, application, and utilization of “radiative forcing” (RF) of Earth’s climate. Basic theories of shortwave and longwave radiation were developed through the nineteenth and twentieth centuries and established the analytical framework for defining and quantifying the perturbations to Earth’s radiative energy balance by natural and anthropogenic influences. The insight that Earth’s climate could be radiatively forced by changes in carbon dioxide, first introduced in the nineteenth century, gained empirical support with sustained observations of the atmospheric concentrations of the gas beginning in 1957. Advances in laboratory and field measurements, theory, instrumentation, computational technology, data, and analysis of well-mixed greenhouse gases and the global climate system through the twentieth century enabled the development and formalism of RF; this allowed RF to be related to changes in global-mean surface temperature with the aid of increasingly sophisticated models. This in turn led to RF becoming firmly established as a principal concept in climate science by 1990. The linkage with surface temperature has proven to be the most important application of the RF concept, enabling a simple metric to evaluate the relative climate impacts of different agents. The late 1970s and 1980s saw accelerated developments in quantification, including the first assessment of the effect of the forcing due to the doubling of carbon dioxide on climate (the “Charney” report). The concept was subsequently extended to a wide variety of agents beyond well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs; carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and halocarbons) to short-lived species such as ozone. The WMO and IPCC international assessments began the important sequence of periodic evaluations and quantifications of the forcings by natural (solar irradiance changes and stratospheric aerosols resulting from volcanic eruptions) and a growing set of anthropogenic agents (WMGHGs, ozone, aerosols, land surface changes, contrails). From the 1990s to the present, knowledge and scientific confidence in the radiative agents acting on the climate system have proliferated. The conceptual basis of RF has also evolved as both our understanding of the way radiative forcing drives climate change and the diversity of the forcing mechanisms have grown. This has led to the current situation where “effective radiative forcing” (ERF) is regarded as the preferred practical definition of radiative forcing in order to better capture the link between forcing and global-mean surface temperature change. The use of ERF, however, comes with its own attendant issues, including challenges in its diagnosis from climate models, its applications to small forcings, and blurring of the distinction between rapid climate adjustments (fast responses) and climate feedbacks; this will necessitate further elaboration of its utility in the future. Global climate model simulations of radiative perturbations by various agents have established how the forcings affect other climate variables besides temperature (e.g., precipitation). The forcing–response linkage as simulated by models, including the diversity in the spatial distribution of forcings by the different agents, has provided a practical demonstration of the effectiveness of agents in perturbing the radiative energy balance and causing climate changes. The significant advances over the past half century have established, with very high confidence, that the global-mean ERF due to human activity since preindustrial times is positive (the 2013 IPCC assessment gives a best estimate of 2.3 W m−2, with a range from 1.1 to 3.3 W m−2; 90% confidence interval). Further, except in the immediate aftermath of climatically significant volcanic eruptions, the net anthropogenic forcing dominates over natural radiative forcing mechanisms. Nevertheless, the substantial remaining uncertainty in the net anthropogenic ERF leads to large uncertainties in estimates of climate sensitivity from observations and in predicting future climate impacts. The uncertainty in the ERF arises principally from the incorporation of the rapid climate adjustments in the formulation, the well-recognized difficulties in characterizing the preindustrial state of the atmosphere, and the incomplete knowledge of the interactions of aerosols with clouds. This uncertainty impairs the quantitative evaluation of climate adaptation and mitigation pathways in the future. A grand challenge in Earth system science lies in continuing to sustain the relatively simple essence of the radiative forcing concept in a form similar to that originally devised, and at the same time improving the quantification of the forcing. This, in turn, demands an accurate, yet increasingly complex and comprehensive, accounting of the relevant processes in the climate system.

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Hoffmann, G., and J. Beer. "Holocene Climate Variability and Climate Forcing." PAGES news 12, no. 3 (December 2004): 18–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.22498/pages.12.3.18b.

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Shi, Xiangjun, Wentao Zhang, and Jiaojiao Liu. "Comparison of Anthropogenic Aerosol Climate Effects among Three Climate Models with Reduced Complexity." Atmosphere 10, no. 8 (August 9, 2019): 456. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos10080456.

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The same prescribed anthropogenic aerosol forcing was implemented into three climate models. The atmosphere components of these participating climate models were the GAMIL, ECHAM, and CAM models. Ensemble simulations were carried out to obtain a reliable estimate of anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF). The ensemble mean ERFs from these three participating models with this aerosol forcing were −0.27, −0.63, and −0.54 W∙m−2. The model diversity in ERF is clearly reduced as compared with those based on the models’ own default approaches (−1.98, −0.21, and −2.22 W∙m−2). This is consistent with the design of this aerosol forcing. The modeled ERF can be decomposed into two basic components, i.e., the instantaneous radiative forcing (RF) from aerosol–radiation interactions (RFari) and the aerosol-induced changes in cloud forcing (△Fcloud*). For the three participating models, the model diversity in RFari (−0.21, −0.33, and −0.29 W∙m−2) could be constrained by reducing the differences in natural aerosol radiative forcings. However, it was difficult to figure out the reason for the model diversity in △Fcloud* (−0.05, −0.28, and −0.24 W∙m−2), which was the dominant source of the model diversity in ERF. The variability of modeled ERF was also studied. Ensemble simulations showed that the modeled RFs were very stable. The rapid adjustments (ERF − RF) had an important role to play in the quantification of the perturbation of ERF. Fortunately, the contribution from the rapid adjustments to the mean ERF was very small. This study also showed that we should pay attention to the difference between the aerosol climate effects we want and the aerosol climate effects we calculate.

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Kravitz, Ben, Douglas G. MacMartin, Philip J. Rasch, and Andrew J. Jarvis. "A New Method of Comparing Forcing Agents in Climate Models*." Journal of Climate 28, no. 20 (October 13, 2015): 8203–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00663.1.

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Abstract The authors describe a new method of comparing different climate forcing agents (e.g., CO2 concentration, CH4 concentration, and total solar irradiance) in climate models that circumvents many of the difficulties associated with explicit calculations of efficacy. This is achieved by introducing an explicit feedback loop external to a climate model that adjusts one forcing agent to balance another while keeping global-mean surface temperature constant. The convergence time of this feedback loop can be adjusted, allowing for comparisons of forcing agents to be achieved with relatively short simulations. Comparisons between forcing agents are highly linear in concordance with predicted scaling relationships; for example, the global-mean climate response to a doubling of the CO2 concentration is equivalent to that of a 2.1% change in total solar irradiance. This result is independent of the magnitude of the forcing agent (within the range of radiative forcings considered here) and is consistent across two different climate models.

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Gillett, Nathan P., Hideo Shiogama, Bernd Funke, Gabriele Hegerl, Reto Knutti, Katja Matthes, Benjamin D. Santer, Daithi Stone, and Claudia Tebaldi. "The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6." Geoscientific Model Development 9, no. 10 (October 18, 2016): 3685–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3685-2016.

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Abstract. Detection and attribution (D&A) simulations were important components of CMIP5 and underpinned the climate change detection and attribution assessments of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The primary goals of the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) are to facilitate improved estimation of the contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing changes to observed global warming as well as to observed global and regional changes in other climate variables; to contribute to the estimation of how historical emissions have altered and are altering contemporary climate risk; and to facilitate improved observationally constrained projections of future climate change. D&A studies typically require unforced control simulations and historical simulations including all major anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such simulations will be carried out as part of the DECK and the CMIP6 historical simulation. In addition D&A studies require simulations covering the historical period driven by individual forcings or subsets of forcings only: such simulations are proposed here. Key novel features of the experimental design presented here include firstly new historical simulations with aerosols-only, stratospheric-ozone-only, CO2-only, solar-only, and volcanic-only forcing, facilitating an improved estimation of the climate response to individual forcing, secondly future single forcing experiments, allowing observationally constrained projections of future climate change, and thirdly an experimental design which allows models with and without coupled atmospheric chemistry to be compared on an equal footing.

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de Jager, C. "Solar Forcing of Climate." Surveys in Geophysics 33, no. 3-4 (May 9, 2012): 445–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10712-012-9193-z.

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Ocko, Ilissa B., V. Ramaswamy, and Yi Ming. "Contrasting Climate Responses to the Scattering and Absorbing Features of Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcings." Journal of Climate 27, no. 14 (July 10, 2014): 5329–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00401.1.

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Abstract Anthropogenic aerosols comprise optically scattering and absorbing particles, with the principal concentrations being in the Northern Hemisphere, yielding negative and positive global mean radiative forcings, respectively. Aerosols also influence cloud albedo, yielding additional negative radiative forcings. Climate responses to a comprehensive set of isolated aerosol forcing simulations are investigated in a coupled atmosphere–ocean framework, forced by preindustrial to present-day aerosol-induced radiative perturbations. Atmospheric and oceanic climate responses (including precipitation, atmospheric circulation, atmospheric and oceanic heat transport, sea surface temperature, and salinity) to negative and positive particulate forcings are consistently anticorrelated. The striking effects include distinct patterns of changes north and south of the equator that are governed by the sign of the aerosol forcing and its initiation of an interhemispheric forcing asymmetry. The presence of opposing signs of the forcings between the aerosol scatterers and absorbers, and the resulting contrast in climate responses, thus dilutes the individual effects of aerosol types on influencing global and regional climate conditions. The aerosol-induced changes in the variables also have a distinct fingerprint when compared to the responses of the more globally uniform and interhemispherically symmetric well-mixed greenhouse gas forcing. The significance of employing a full ocean model is demonstrated in this study by the ability to partition how individual aerosols influence atmospheric and oceanic conditions separately.

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Дисертації з теми "Forcing of climate"

Liebrand, Diederik. "Astronomical climate forcing during the Oligo-Miocene." Thesis, University of Southampton, 2014. https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/374831/.

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In this thesis newly generated high-resolution Oligo-Miocene climate proxy records from Walvis Ridge ODP Site 1264 (south-eastern Atlantic Ocean) are presented (Chapters 2 and 3). The records are tuned to an eccentricity solution (Chapter 3) and they are compared to published Atlantic and Pacific palaeoclimate chronologies (Chapters 2 and 4). The main research objectives are 1) to identify astronomical pacemakers of global significance and test earlier pacing theories, 2) to describe global climate and oceanographic change on astronomical and tectonic time scales and 3) to test the strong hysteresis in ice sheet models that suggest a very stable Antarctic ice sheet once formed. Chapter 1 gives a general introduction on the “mid”-to-late Oligocene climatic, oceanographic, geographic and cryospheric settings. Climate evolution and dynamics, together with the major underlying processes are introduced. In Chapter 2, high-resolution early Miocene stable oxygen and carbon isotope chronologies from Walvis Ridge Site 1264 are presented. The data are analysed on an untuned age model to identify the principal astronomical pacemakers, without introducing power on orbital frequencies. A dominance of variance in all datasets on 100-kyr timescales is found. The δ18O data are used to parameterize a suite of 1D ice sheet models and show that between 20 – 80% (avg. ~50%) of the δ18O signal can be explained by changes in Antarctic ice volume. (This chapter has been published as: D. Liebrand, L. J. Lourens, D. A. Hodell, B. de Boer, R. S. W. van de Wal and H. Pälike. Antarctic ice sheet and oceanographic response to eccentricity forcing during the early Miocene. Climate of the Past, 7, 869–880, 2011) In Chapter 3, extended stable-isotope records together with X-ray fluorescence core scanning data from Walvis Ridge Site 1264 are presented. The records span an 11-Myr mid Oligocene through early Miocene time interval. Ages are calibrated to eccentricity, are in good agreement with the GTS2012 and independently confirm the Oligo-Miocene time scale to the ~100-kyr level. The ~2.4-Myr long-period eccentricity cycle is identified as the main pacemaker of Oligo-Miocene climate events, as identified in the benthic isotope records, at shorter astronomical (eccentricity) periodicities. In Chapter 4, the high-resolution Oligo-Miocene benthic stable-isotope chronology from Site 1264 is compared to published records from the Atlantic and Pacific to further identify and explore possible global climate pacemakers. In addition, an investigation of long-term trends and inter-/intra-basin isotopic gradients and their implications for ice volume reconstruction and palaeoceanographic studies are discussed. Methods are explored to quantify the apparent change in geometry of ~100-kyr cycles in our benthic δ18O data and the analyses indicate an increased cycle asymmetry (i.e. sawtooth patterns) throughout the Oligo-Miocene. This change in cycle geometry is interpreted as a measure of changing boundary conditions and used to track the evolution of a threshold response mechanism in Earth’s climate system. In Chapter 5 the main results of this thesis are summarised, the implications for our understanding of the Oligo-Miocene are discussed and perspectives are given on future work.

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Miller, William David. "Climate forcing of phytoplankton dynamics in Chesapeake Bay." College Park, Md. : University of Maryland, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1903/3705.

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Thesis (Ph. D.) -- University of Maryland, College Park, 2006.
Thesis research directed by: Marine-Estuarine-Environmental Sciences. Title from t.p. of PDF. Includes bibliographical references. Published by UMI Dissertation Services, Ann Arbor, Mich. Also available in paper.

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Andrews, Timothy. "A surface perspective on radiative forcing of climate." Thesis, University of Leeds, 2010. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.531644.

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Mousavi, Zahra. "Radiative forcing, climate change and global hydrological cycle." Thesis, University of Reading, 2017. http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/75277/.

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Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols have led to climate change including changes in surface temperature and precipitation. The surface temperature response is better understood than the precipitation response as a result of observed data availability and the complexity of the physics governing hydrological cycle changes. The complex general climate models (GeMs) are computationally demanding and include many physical processes that contribute to the changing water cycle. It remains necessary to understand the main drivers of this change. In this thesis, the main aim is to understand the water cycle changes by examining the degree to which simple models can simulate global-average results emerging from GeMs. For this purpose, a simple atmospheric energy budget model is used to calculate the global mean precipitation changes for the historical period and future scenarios. The results are then compared with GeMs to understand the physical processes affecting the global precipitation changes. The original form of the simple atmospheric energy budget model does not take into account many different factors included in GeMs, such as regional temperature and precipitation changes, fast surface sensible heat flux changes, fast precipitation response of volcanic aerosols and inter-annual variability. This work examines whether it is possible to extend the simple model to include some of these factors or compare the idealised experiments with the results of complex models (Wu et al. 2010). The simple model does well in producing the total global precipitation anomalies compared with GeMs multi-model mean consistent with earlier studies. The results of the simple model for individual GeMs are in less good agreement and different reasons for this disagreement have been investigated. Substituting the temperature changes from each GeM and also normalising the radiative forcings of simple model to the adjusted GeM RFs lead to an increase in compatibility between the simple model and GeMs, indicating that the main differences are related to the temperature equation and RFs. Adding the fast response of volcanic aerosols also increased the correlation between the simple model and GeMs particularly in volcanic years. Using new results from (Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project) PDRMIP, the effect of fast surface sensible heat changes has been investigated which shows a considerable contribution to atmospheric energy budget changes particularly for aerosols. The simple model has been modified by adding the fast sensible heat changes which leads to a small improvement in the simple model; however it is not possible to be certain how robust this improvement is. More data and more work is still required but generally it is concluded that the simple model performs well compared with complex models.

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Ma, Xiaoyan, Fangqun Yu, and Johannes Quaas. "Reassessment of satellite-based estimate of aerosol climate forcing." Universitätsbibliothek Leipzig, 2015. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:15-qucosa-177222.

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Large uncertainties exist in estimations of aerosol direct radiative forcing and indirect radiative forcing, and the values derived from globalmodeling differ substantially with satellite-based calculations. Following the approach of Quaas et al. (2008; hereafter named Quaas2008),we reassess satellite-based clear- and cloudy-sky radiative forcings and their seasonal variations by employing updated satellite products from 2004 to 2011 in combination with the anthropogenic aerosol optical depth (AOD) fraction obtained frommodel simulations using the Goddard Earth Observing System-Chemistry-Advanced ParticleMicrophysics (GEOS-Chem-APM). Our derived annual mean aerosol clear-sky forcing (-0.59 W m-2) is lower, while the cloudy-sky forcing (-0.34 W m-2) is higher than the corresponding results (-0.9Wm-2 and -0.2W m-2, respectively) reported in Quaas2008. Our study indicates that the derived forcings are sensitive to the anthropogenic AOD fraction and its spatial distribution but insensitive to the temporal resolution used to obtain the regression coefficients, i.e.,monthly or seasonal based. The forcing efficiency (i.e., the magnitude per anthropogenic AOD) for the clear-sky forcing based on this study is 19.9Wm-2, which is about 5% smaller than Quaas2008’s value of 21.1Wm-2. In contrast, the efficiency for the cloudy-sky forcing of this study (11 W m-2) is more than a factor of 2 larger than Quaas2008’s value of 4.7 W m-2. Uncertainties tests indicate that anthropogenic fraction of AOD strongly affects the computed forcings while using aerosol index instead of AOD from satellite data as aerosol proxy does not appear to cause any significant differences in regression slopes and derived forcings.

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Ma, Xiaoyan, Fangqun Yu, and Johannes Quaas. "Reassessment of satellite-based estimate of aerosol climate forcing." Wiley, 2014. https://ul.qucosa.de/id/qucosa%3A13449.

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Richardson, Glen. "Climate response to fresh water forcing in the Southern Ocean." Thesis, University of East Anglia, 2006. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.432442.

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Shannon, Debbie Anne. "Land surface response to climate change forcing over Southern Africa." Doctoral thesis, University of Cape Town, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/5286.

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The land surface is important to the climate system for the exchanges of moisture, momentum and heat. Momentum, radiation, and sensible and latent heat fluxes between the atmosphere and the surface will likely affect atmospheric dynamics, temperature, precipitation and humidity fields (Sato et ai., 1989). These may subsequently feed back into the land surface processes as part of a cyclical system. Therefore it is evident that our livelihood is largely dependent on interactions and exchanges between the land surface and climate system (Henderson-Sellers et ai., 1993) and it is thus essential that we gain a better understanding of the interactive sensitivity. This is of particular relevance in the context of the portended future global climate change. In the present study the interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere are considered over the southern African region. This region has a climate showing a high degree of spatial and temporal variability, most notably with rainfall. Regional climates are characterised by summer, winter and all-year-round rainfall. There are steep vegetation gradients and a wide range of vegetation types adapted to suit the variable climate. These factors, combined with the societal implications of changes in the climate and land surface systems, make southern Africa a challenging and important study domain for examining the sensitivity between the different elements of the atmosphere and biosphere. This research makes use of a biosphere model driven by climate change data derived from a general circulation model (GCM). Regions susceptible and sensitive to changes on an annual and seasonal basis are identified and examined. The thesis comprises 8 chapters. The first chapter, Chapter 1, provides some background information on climate change, biosphereatmosphere interactions, GCMs and transient simulations, vegetation models and vegetation representation over southern Africa. This chapter also sets out the research objectives. The following chapter, Chapter 2, introduces the atmospheric GCM model data from the Hadley Centre Model (HadCM2) used in the analysis. The chapter additionally provides a detailed description of the biosphere model, the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS). Chapter 3 examines the Hadley Centre HadCM2 GCM input data used in driving the biosphere model, while Chapter 4 presents the input forcing data and configuration of the IBIS model. In Chapter 5 the results of the IBIS model simulation are examined on the annual scale and in Chapter 6 the results are examined on the seasonal scale. Some of the implications of climate change are considered in Chapter 7. This chapter also places the HadCM2 GCM model data used in driving IBIS into the context of the latest emissions scenarios. In the final chapter, Chapter 8, an overview summary is provided and conclusions are drawn.

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McFadden, Ellyn M. "Controls on West Greenland Outlet Glacier Sensitivity to Climate Forcing." The Ohio State University, 2010. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1267209212.

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Chung, Serena Hsin-Yi Seinfeld John H. Seinfeld John H. "Global distribution, radiative forcing, and climate impact of carbonaceous aerosols /." Diss., Pasadena, Calif. : California Institute of Technology, 2005. http://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechETD:etd-02012005-131605.

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Книги з теми "Forcing of climate"

McGuire, Bill, and Mark Maslin, eds. Climate Forcing of Geological Hazards. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118482698.

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J, Charlson Robert, and Heintzenberg J, eds. Aerosol forcing of climate: Report of the Dahlem Workshop on Aerosol Forcing of Climate, Berlin 1994, April 24-29. Chichester: J. Wiley, 1995.

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Booth, B. Exploring the linearity of the climate response to external forcing. Chilton: Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, 2002.

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Agarwal, Vijay K. A statistical-dynamic climate model with explicit radiative and cloud forcing. Bangalore: Indian Space Research Organisation, 1992.

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U, Haq Bilal, ed. Sequence stratigraphy and depositional response to eustatic, tectonic, and climate forcing. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1995.

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Theodore, Houghton John, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group I., and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Response Strategies Work Group., eds. Climate change, 1994: Radiative forcing of climate change and an evaluation of the IPCC IS92 emission scenarios. Cambridge [England]: Cambridge University Press, 1995.

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Hare, Jeffrey. Cloud, radiation, and surface forcing in the equatorial eastern Pacific. Boulder, Colo: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Division, 2005.

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National Research Council (U.S.). Panel on Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Climate Change., ed. A plan for a research program on aerosol radiative forcing and climate change. Washington, D.C: National Academy Press, 1996.

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Oikawa, Eiji. An evaluation of the direct aerosol radiative forcing from satellite remote sensing and climate modeling. Tokyo, Japan: Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo, 2015.

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Monni, Suvi. Estimation of country contributions to the climate change: Viewpoints of radiative forcing and uncertainty of emissions. [Espoo, Finland]: VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, 2005.

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Частини книг з теми "Forcing of climate"

Egger, Joseph. "Constrained stochastic forcing." In Stochastic Climate Models, 299–308. Basel: Birkhäuser Basel, 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-0348-8287-3_13.

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de Jager, C. "Solar Forcing of Climate." In Observing and Modelling Earth's Energy Flows, 113–19. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4327-4_9.

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Granier, Claire, and Igor Karol. "Radiative Forcing." In The Stratosphere and Its Role in the Climate System, 199–216. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-03327-2_11.

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Lo, Min-Hui, Tzu-Hsien Kuo, Hao-Wei Wey, Chia-Wei Lan, and Jen-Ping Chen. "Land Processes as the Forcing of Extremes." In Climate Extremes, 75–92. Hoboken, NJ, USA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781119068020.ch5.

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Shine, Keith P. "Radiative Forcing of Climate Change." In Solar Variability and Climate, 363–73. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-0888-4_33.

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McGuire, Bill. "Hazardous Responses of the Solid Earth to a Changing Climate." In Climate Forcing of Geological Hazards, 1–33. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118482698.ch1.

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Knight, Jasper, Margreth Keiler, and Stephan Harrison. "Impacts of Recent and Future Climate Change on Natural Hazards in the European Alps." In Climate Forcing of Geological Hazards, 223–49. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118482698.ch10.

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Maslin, Mark, Matthew Owen, Richard A. Betts, Simon Day, Tom Dunkley Jones, and Andrew Ridgwell. "Assessing the Past and Future Stability of Global Gas Hydrate Reservoirs." In Climate Forcing of Geological Hazards, 250–77. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118482698.ch11.

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Jones, Tom Dunkley, Ruža F. Ivanović, Andrew Ridgwell, Daniel J. Lunt, Mark A. Maslin, Paul J. Valdes, and Rachel Flecker. "Methane Hydrate Instability: A View from the Palaeogene." In Climate Forcing of Geological Hazards, 278–304. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118482698.ch12.

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Liggins, Felicity, Richard A. Betts, and Bill McGuire. "Projected Future Climate Changes in the Context of Geological and Geomorphological Hazards." In Climate Forcing of Geological Hazards, 34–55. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118482698.ch2.

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Тези доповідей конференцій з теми "Forcing of climate"

Schnell, Russell C. "Monitoring global atmospheric constituents capable of forcing climate change." In Photonics East '99, edited by Tuan Vo-Dinh and Robert L. Spellicy. SPIE, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1117/12.372841.

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Evans, W. F. J. "Observations of Climate Radiative Forcing from Ground and Space." In Fourier Transform Spectroscopy. Washington, D.C.: OSA, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1364/fts.2009.fwa4.

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"E. coliin PA streams as affected by climate forcing." In 2016 ASABE International Meeting. American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.13031/aim.20162462928.

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Randall, David A. "Atmospheric and surface cloud radiative forcing: results from climate models." In Orlando '90, 16-20 April, edited by Bruce R. Barkstrom. SPIE, 1990. http://dx.doi.org/10.1117/12.21360.

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Zeebe, Richard. "ORBITAL FORCING OF EARLY CENOZOIC CLIMATE AND NEW ASTRONOMICAL SOLUTIONS." In GSA Annual Meeting in Seattle, Washington, USA - 2017. Geological Society of America, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/abs/2017am-304423.

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Bishop, Michael P., Andrew B. G. Bush, Andrew B. G. Bush, Iliyana D. Dobreva, Iliyana D. Dobreva, Brennan W. Young, Brennan W. Young, Da Huo, and Da Huo. "CLIMATE-TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING AND MOUNTAIN GEODYNAMICS IN THE CENTRAL KARAKORAM HIMALAYA." In GSA Annual Meeting in Seattle, Washington, USA - 2017. Geological Society of America, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/abs/2017am-297851.

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Wohl, Ellen, and Julianne Scamardo. "AUFEIS AS A FORCING MECHANISM FOR CHANNEL AVULSION AND IMPLICATIONS OF WARMING CLIMATE." In GSA Connects 2022 meeting in Denver, Colorado. Geological Society of America, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/abs/2022am-376775.

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Jian, Wu, and Luo Yan. "Numerical Simulation of Aerosols' Direct Radiative Forcing and Climate Effects over East of China." In 2008 Fourth International Conference on Natural Computation. IEEE, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icnc.2008.330.

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Sushkevich, T. A., S. A. Strelkov, and S. V. Maksakova. "The features of modeling of radiation forcing on the climate in the Arctic region." In XXII International Symposium Atmospheric and Ocean Optics. Atmospheric Physics, edited by Gennadii G. Matvienko and Oleg A. Romanovskii. SPIE, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1117/12.2248770.

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BROER, H. W., R. VITOLO, and C. SIMÓ. "QUASI-PERIODIC HÉNON-LIKE ATTRACTORS IN THE LORENZ-84 CLIMATE MODEL WITH SEASONAL FORCING." In Proceedings of the International Conference on Differential Equations. WORLD SCIENTIFIC, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/9789812702067_0100.

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Звіти організацій з теми "Forcing of climate"

Ghan, Steven J., Xindi Bian, Elaine G. Chapman, Richard C. Easter, George I. Fann, Suraj C. Kothari, Rahul A. Zaveri, and Yang Zhang. Simulation of Climate Forcing by Aerosols. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), May 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/15007408.

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Pradeep Kumar, Kaavya. Climate Change Glossary. Indian Institute for Human Settlements, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.24943/ccgemthk02.2021.

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Анотація:

Climate change is a complex subject with terms and definitions that can seem overwhelming to non-specialists. What is ‘albedo’? What does ‘radiative forcing’ mean? What does ‘geoengineering’ entail? As climate change impacts grow more frequent and intense, it is critical that journalists, in particular, are equipped with the right information when they report. This set of open-access multilingual glossaries aim to bridge the gap between research and the general public by compiling this comprehensive list of most frequently-used terms related to climate change. A majority of these terms have been sourced from the different IPCC reports as well as public platforms such as the BBC and the Climate Reality Project.

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Lacis, A. Analysis of cloud radiative forcing and feedback in a climate GCM. Final report. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), December 1996. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/465803.

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Dubey, Manvendra, James Benedict, Daniel O'Malley, Balasubramanya Nadiga, Paul Johnson, Hari Viswanathan, Petr Chylek, and Simon Carns. AI for Extreme Volcanic Climate Forcing and Feedback Forecasting in the 21st century. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), February 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1765859.

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Dubey, Manvendra, James Benedict, Daniel O'Malley, Balu Nadiga, Paul Johnson, Hari Viswanathan, Peter Chylek, and Simon Carns. AI for Extreme Volcanic Climate Forcing and Feedback Forecasting in the 21st century. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), April 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1769659.

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Forest, Chris E., Joseph J. Barsugli, and Wei Li. Linking the uncertainty of low frequency variability in tropical forcing in regional climate change. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), February 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1170504.

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Dubey, Manvendra. Climate Forcing & Feedbacks by Fires, Forests, Fossil Energy & Food Production: Observations are Key to Predictions. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), August 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1884732.

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Fitzjarrald, David Roy. Evaluating the Contribution of Climate Forcing and Forest Dynamics to Accelerating Carbon Sequestration by Forest Ecosystems in the Northeastern U.S. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), September 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1092485.

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Munger, J. William, David R. Foster, and Andrew D. Richardson. Evaluating the Contribution of Climate Forcing and Forest Dynamics to Accelerating Carbon Sequestration by Forest Ecosystems in the Northeastern U.S.: Final Report. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), October 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1159096.

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Arkema, Katie, Allison Bailey, Roberto Guerrero Compeán, Pelayo Menéndez Fernandez, and Borja Reguero. Modeling Tropical Cyclone Risk While Accounting for Climate Change and Natural Infrastructure in the Caribbean. Inter-American Development Bank, July 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0004966.

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This chapter describes tools and a methodology to model wind and flood risks from tropical storms under present and future climate accounting for natural infrastructure. Wind forcing provide a crucial link to hydrodynamic models that can be used in risk assessments to estimate extent of and damages from flooding and erosion. Further, such flood risk models can then include the effects of ecosystems, such as mangroves, to model the effects on risk of conservation and restoration outcomes but also individual nature-based projects to reduce risks. The chapter describes hazard modeling techniques and presents simple applications to (1) assess the effect of climate change in the Caribbean, by estimating wind fields for tropical cyclones for present and future climate scenarios, (2) address the limited observations in hurricane data by using existing tools to derive synthetic storms and readily use them in coastal models, and (3) compare modeling approaches and datasets to provide recommendations for assessing flood attenuation of mangroves. The results and data developed in these applications is available with this chapter to be used in other local applications, or to infer damages from wind or in flood hazard models.

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