Добірка наукової літератури з теми "Dynamic assessment of financial risks"

The aim of the paper is to address the issue of local enterprises that fall prey to international companies in terms of mergers as they fail to address risks that collapse their institutions.In this research paper, the study is based on literature. The researcher looked at similar cases of mergers and acquisitions in Botswana and overseas in diverse sectors of the economy. The core assessment of risk identification which is portfolio risk helped in identifying risks that affect consolidations, mergers, and acquisitions in Botswana. The researcher intends to help the companies taking over others to be able to manage risks, contain their risk appetite in order to avoid financial losses as well as legal litigations from either parties that will be affected. Local enterprises fail because of lack of experience and capacity to handle risks. It is also coupled with failure to measure their risk appetite as well as test the role of leadership in managing risks. The methodology used is direct interview and consultations for the information.

A new systems approach to quantitative estimation of financial risks of investment projects was proposed: an integral risk of the project as a whole for all its parameters at once and the risks for each of its parameters separately. At the same time, the very concept of the project risk has been generalized: instead of the conventional risk of unprofitability, a new, more general concept of the risk of unacceptably low project profitability has been introduced. Two levels of the project profitability were considered: a level acceptable to the investor and a realistically achievable level. Corresponding values of design parameters and indices of financial efficiency of the project were found for these levels. Based on the found values, relative margins of investment acceptability and risks of unacceptably low profitability of the project were calculated. A procedure of comprehensive assessment of the risk of unacceptable low profitability of the project for cases of high certainty and partial uncertainty has been developed. Explicit formulas for quantitative risk assessment of unacceptably low profitability of the project have been derived, ranges of values of all risks under consideration have been determined and appropriate recommendations have been given. Explicit formulas for calculating the values of project risks and dynamic points of project acceptability are convenient and useful for software implementation (for example, within the Monte Carlo method). For the Monte Carlo method and the method of scenarios, another alternative approach to assessing the integral risk of unacceptably low project profitability was proposed by the authors based on the direct calculation of unacceptable scenario values of any criterion of the project financial efficiency. A new index of financial efficiency of the project has also been introduced: a discounted period of acceptable return (discounted payback period of the project is its special case).

This research examined bankers’ perceptions of environmental sources of financial risks and its impact on commercial banks in Ghana. Primary data was collected from a purposive sample of ninety-six (96) middle–level bank managers using structured questionnaires. Time series secondary data on banking performance (denoted as ROA and ROE) and stability (denoted as CAR and NPLR) and growth of five major industrial businesses (including agriculture, mining, construction, manufacturing, and trade) as the environmental sources of financial risks, for a period of 13 years (2006-2018) was further obtained for analysis. Data was analyzed using the sample t-test and the multivariate dynamic panel regression model. The results show that, in bank lending, mining was perceived to be the topmost source of indirect environmental risk (credit and reputational risks), while agriculture was perceived to be the leading source of direct environmental risk (business risk). We found that perceptions of environmental sources of financial risk by mangers of locally owned banks differed from that of foreign owned banks. Growth of mining, trade and manufacturing positively influenced banking performance while the growth of construction and agriculture negatively influence banking stability. The study thus provides supportive evidence that commercial banks require set standards that guide clients’ business towards environmental sustainability

The purpose of the article is to substantiate the methodological tools for identifying and assessing financial risks for the management of such on the example of the agricultural sector. Research methods. The methods used: the monographic method for reviewing scientific publications of researchers and analysis of regulatory framework for risk identification and assessment, systematic and comparative analysis for the formation of methodological approaches to financial risk assessment, empirical method and synthesis for analysis of food security indicators, indicators of state regulation of financial risks, graphical method to reflect the dynamics of individual studied indicators, abstract and logical for theoretical generalizations and conclusions. Research results. Methodical approaches to financial risk assessment are analyzed. The components of financial risk assessment methods, as a system of principles, practices and techniques of scientific research of risk identification and measurement, theoretical principles of using these tools in the study of security aspects of the national economy are specified. It is determined that financial risk applies to almost all areas of activity. It is a kind of assessment of decision-making in conditions of uncertainty in the field of financing, investment, asset management, and resource potential at different levels of government. For the macro level of financial risk assessment, the dynamics of the food security index as the main criterion of the consequences of financial security of the industry is analyzed; the state of the shadow economy as a determining factor in systemic financial risks; the level of budget support as a factor in the effectiveness of public finance policy and financial risk management. For the micro level, the classification of methods of financial risk assessment based on the ways of the financial condition of enterprises is clarified, and the relationship between them is argued. Express analysis of financial risks was performed based on financial reporting data according to analytical ratios on the example of PJSC Myronivsky Hliboproduct. Normative methods of determining financial risk following the coefficient analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis and the National Standard of Ukraine "Risk Management. Methods of general risk assessment " to justify the need for a unified system of methodological approaches to financial risk assessment. Scientific novelty. The necessity of forming a unified methodology for assessing the financial risks of the agricultural sector was proved, for which the financial resources of the industry for 2013-2020 were analyzed and it was found that they account for 9.4% of the resources of the economy. Methodological approaches to the assessment of financial risks by involving macro-levels of the agricultural sector in the field of food security have been expanded, as it serves as a guarantor of food security, and there is a need to constantly monitor . It is generalized that the content of the assessment of financial risks of agricultural enterprises is determined in accordance with the purpose and main tasks, which have a gradation at the hierarchy levels. The scheme of a technique of an estimation of financial risks of agrarian branch is constructed. Practical significance. The methodological support of financial risk assessment processes has been improved, which can serve as a basis for the formation of a single Methodology for the analysis of the financial condition and financial risks of agricultural enterprises. The stages of financial risk assessment for the agricultural sector according to the algorithm are proposed: detection - analysis - minimization, which can be useful for agricultural enterprises in carrying out a comprehensive financial analysis. Some conclusions of the study can be used in shaping the financial policy of the agricultural sector. Tabl.: 6. Figs.: 2. Refs.: 25.

The relevance of the problem under study is due to the fact that, despite the many works devoted to the theoretical and applied aspects of risk research, the specifics of the formation of financial risks in the activities of retail trade networks have not been sufficiently studied. In particular, there is no methodology and practical recommendations for quantitative risk assessment using statistical methods that allow to identify trends and patterns in the dynamics of risk indicators, to consider external and internal risk factors, the results of which should be used as a basis for developing measures to reduce the risk of retail trade. networks. The aim of the work is to improve the methodology for assessing financial risks based on methods of statistical, economic and financial analysis. The article presents the results of a quantitative assessment of financial risks according to the approach developed and tested on the data of the retail trade network “Magnit”. For a quantitative assessment of the financial risks of a retail trade network, the authors proposed a system of five profitability indicators. The analysis of trends and patterns in the dynamics of profitability indicators, as well as factors influencing them, was carried out using one-dimensional and multidimensional data sets. Forecasts of profitability indicators are not contradictory and indicate the presence of a risk of losses, therefore, a detailed assessment of financial risks was carried out. It was revealed that the indicators of profitability of the retail trade network “Magnit” in the analyzed period had a statistically significant relationship with the indices of the physical volume of retail trade and consumer prices, as well as the number of economic entities in retail trade. The assessment of the financial condition of the organization by indicators of financial stability and a comprehensive assessment by the five-factor model of E. Altman are given. The scientific novelty of the work consists in improving the methodology for assessing financial risks based on statistical, economic and financial methods of analysis, as well as developing proposals for reducing financial risks for network trading organizations. The proposed methodology and research results are of interest to decision makers in network trade organizations, regulatory bodies at the regional and federal levels. Prospects for further research on the issues of assessing and predicting financial risks of retail chains consist in a more detailed study of external factors, in particular, legal restrictions, changes in the level and structure of consumer demand due to the pandemic that began in 2020.

The article proposes a model for the computational core of the decision support system (DSS) in assessing the risks of investment loss during the dynamic planning (DP) of Smart City development. In contrast to the existing solutions, the proposed model provides specific recommendations when assessing the risks of loss. In case of an unsatisfactory risk forecast, it is possible to flexibly adjust the parameters of the investment process in order for the parties to achieve an acceptable financial result. The scientific novelty of the results is that for the first time it is proposed to apply a new class of bilinear multistep games. This class allowed us to adequately describe the process of assessing the risks of investment loss, using the example of dynamic planning for the placement of financial resources of players in Smart City projects. A distinctive feature of the considered approach is the use of tools based on the solution of a bilinear multistep game of both quality with several terminal surfaces, and a game of degree solved in the class of mixed strategies. Computational experiments were carried out in the Maple mathematical modeling package, and a DSS was developed in which a risk assessment model was implemented. The developed DSS allows to reduce the discrepancies between the data for predicting the risks of investment loss during the Smart City DP and the real return on investment.

In today’s rapidly changing world, the application of the achievements of scientific and technological progress, the development and implementation of investment projects become a competitive advantage and the key to the successful development of regions, clusters, corporations. In some of the most dynamic industries, investing becomes a matter of not just efficient operation, but also determines the presence of companies in the market. Applied research, and even more so fundamental, requires significant investments, the return on which at the first stages of the development and implementation of investment projects is difficult to predict. The end result is also obviously not predictable, which makes investing one of the most risky areas of activity of modern companies. Therefore, today the development and improvement of investment efficiency are the most important tasks. The institutional and economic environment of developing countries may not be the positive effect expected from attracting enterprise investment. These ambiguous results regarding the impact of investment form the motivation and problem of dissertation research. Identifying and improving methodological and economic parameters for increasing investment efficiency in the electricity industry will always be one of the main tasks for owners of enterprises and managers, which determines the relevance of the study. The article developed a methodological approach to assessing the efficiency of investment projects in the electric power industry taking into account the risks taken into account in calculating the discount rate for each phase of the life cycle of the project, which allows you to more accurately calculate the main indicators of the efficiency of the investment project.

Subject. The article discusses the economic relations of entities and investors in articulating and implementing an investment policy and managing the investment of financial resources. Objectives. We determine distinctions of creating and using a business plan of an investment project, illustrating the case of an industrial enterprise, and evaluate its performance indicators. The study also provides recommendations for mitigating investment risks identified in monitoring. Methods. Research is based on methods of the structural logic analysis and expert assessments. We hypothesize that a new investment project will be more effectively developed and implemented if there is a correct and appropriate business plan of the project and inherent investment risks are pre-assessed. Results. We analyzed statistical and dynamic methods for evaluating investment projects, found their strengths and weaknesses. Consequently, we selected optimal financial results of investment project studies, which are presented as business plans. The article sets out the methodological approach to ranking investment project risks through materiality and probability indicators, which are point-based and depend on the expert assessment method. This will allow for a more detailed classification of all risks associated with capital investment. Conclusions and Relevance. The article presents the assessment and rationale of the business plan on the investment project for industrial waste recycling, through a set of methods for evaluating the effectiveness of the investment project, so as to improve financial position and liquidity of the enterprise in the long run.

Abstract The article represents the bibliometric analysis of risk assessment in Baltic countries relying on scientific database. The purpose of this analysis is to study trends and development of scientific research when evaluating financial risks as well as reveal resources with high impact to apply content analysis that could be used for future research on the topic. The applied investigation methods were chosen based on the analysis of existing scientometric data: the number and dynamics of published documents; their subject area and type; territory/country; source title; affiliation; authors; h-index; citation overview followed by search results as well as adopting search references to reveal the used and cited documents. The authors also present the applied deduction of trends between enterprise death rate in Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia and the number of documents in the referenced period. This study demonstrates that the amount of research increased significantly when countries face rises in enterprise death rates.

The paper considers the theoretical and practical aspects of the analysis of financial risks in the context of the existing macroeconomic dynamics. The study describes the essence and main types of financial risks of business entities, which are actualized in a turbulent macroeconomic environment. The author proposes a methodological approach for conducting a strategic analysis of financial risks, which is based on their probabilistic assessment and quantitative substantiation of the impact force. Practical testing of the proposed methodology allows for a quantitative substantiation of the level of financial risks in the activities of an economic entity, which contributes to an increase in certainty in the mechanism of their management.

Роботу виконано в Інституті прикладного системного аналізу Національного технічного університету України «Київський політехнічний інститут імені Ігоря Сікорського».
У дисертаційній роботі розроблено системну методологію аналізу та оцінювання фінансових ризиків, яка ґрунтується на принципах системного аналізу та менеджменту ризиків, а також запропонованих принципах адаптивного та динамічного менеджменту ризиків. Методологія включає: комбінований метод обробки неповних та втрачених даних, ймовірнісно-статистичний метод оцінювання ризику фінансових втрат, динамічний метод оцінювання ризиків, який передбачає побудову різних типів моделей виживання, метод структурно-параметричної адаптації, застосування скорингової карти до аналізу ризиків фінансових систем і нейро-нечіткий метод доповнення вибірки відхиленими заявками. Містить критерії урахування інформаційного ризику, оцінки якості даних, прогнозів та рішень, квадратичний критерій якості опрацювання ризику та інтегральну характеристику оцінювання ефективності методів менеджменту ризиків. Практична цінність одержаних результатів полягає у створенні розширеної інформаційної технології та інформаційної системи підтримки прийняття рішень на основі запропонованої системної методології.

Стабільна діяльність фінансової системи країни неможлива без застосування дієвих механізмів стримування та протидії відмиванню грошей на рівні різних суб'єктів національної економіки та фінансових установ. Дослідження присвячене науково-методичному підходу до виявлення, оцінки та моніторингу системних ризиків, пов'язаних з легалізацією доходів, одержаних злочинним шляхом.
Стабильная деятельность финансовой системы страны невозможна без применения эффективных механизмов сдерживания и противодействия отмыванию денег на уровне различных агентов национальной экономики и финансовых институтов. Исследование посвящено научно-методическому подходу к выявлению, оценке и мониторингу системных рисков, связанных с легализацией доходов, полученных преступным путем.
Stable activity of the financial system of the country is impossible without applying effective mechanisms of deterring and combating money laundering at the level of different agents of the national economy and financial institutions. The research is devoted to scientific and methodological approach of identification, assessing and monitoring systemic risks connected with legalization of the proceeds of crime.

This research examines the collective action and financial dimensions of rural waterpoint sustainability in sub-Saharan Africa. Four interlinking papers empirically evaluate the nature and drivers of financial risks, and how they in turn impact the operational performance of community water supplies. The research is grounded in conceptual and theoretical frameworks pertaining to collective action and common-pool resource management, in particular Ostrom's social-ecological systems framework (Ostrom, 2007), Musgrave & Musgrave's economic good framework (Musgrave & Musgrave, 1973), and Marwell & Oliver's critical mass theory (Marwell & Oliver, 1993). The first paper analyses data extracted from national waterpoint inventories in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Uganda. The remaining three papers draw on primary data from rural Kenya comprising 229 years' worth of water committee financial records, a census of 571 waterpoints, and a survey of 3,361 households. These data were collected during extensive field work campaigns in Kwale, Kenya. Quantitative analyses were carried out by way of advanced statistical techniques, including logistic regression, linear mixed (repeated measure) models, and generalised estimating equations. Results suggest collection of user fees is a significant determinant of waterpoint sustainability, alongside other institutional, technical, geographical and environmental variables. However, monthly payment arrangements are beset by non-payment and late payment, particularly if rainfall levels are high, group size is large, households are far away, and water is aggressive and unpalatable. Although monthly contribution levels remain relatively stable above a collective payment rate of 60%, there is little evidence of self-sustaining growth beyond this point, and revenue collection is prone to collapse below this collective payment threshold. In comparison, pay-as-you-fetch fees are associated with increased revenue and improved operational performance, but result in a higher proportion of households opting for an unimproved water source. If the Sustainable Development Goal of universal access to safe water supplies is to be achieved in rural sub-Saharan Africa, strategies are needed to strengthen revenue collection systems and bolster payment incentives. External support and professionalised service delivery models present potential pathways to advance these goals. Policymakers may also need to introduce carefully designed subsidies, or promote self-supply approaches that realign lifecycle costs with users' willingness-to-pay.

This research is concerned with the pre-implementation evaluation of investments in Information Systems (IS). IS evaluation is important as organisations need to assess the financial justifiability of business change proposals that include (but usually are not limited to) the introduction of IS applications. More specifically, this research addresses the problem of benefits assessment within IS evaluation. We contend that benefits assessment should not be performed at the level of the IS application, as most extant evaluation methods advocate. Instead, to study the dynamics and the interactions of the IS applications with their surrounding environment, we propose to adopt the business process as the analytic lens of evaluation and to assess the impacts of IS on organisational, rather than on technical, performance indicators. Drawing on these propositions, this research investigates the potential of dynamic process modelling (via discrete-event simulation) as a facilitator of IS evaluation. We argue that, in order to be effective evaluation tools, business process models should be able to explicitly incorporate the effects of IS introduction on business performance, an issue that is found to be under-researched in previous literature. The above findings serve as the central theme for the development of a design theory of IS evaluation by simulation. The theory provides prescriptive elements that refer both to the design products of the evaluation and the design process by which these products can come into reality. The theory draws on a set of kernel theories from the business engineering domain and proposes a set of meta-requirements that should be satisfied by business process models, a meta-design structure that meets these requirements, and a design method that provides guidance in applying the theoretical propositions in practice. The design theory is developed and empirically tested by means of two real-life case studies. The first study is used to complement the findings of a literature review and to drive the development of the design theory's components, while the second study is employed to validate and further enhance the theory's propositions. The research results support the arguments for simulation-assisted IS evaluation and demonstrate the contribution of the design theory to the field.

Пapминcький, С. В. Упpaвління фінaнcoвими pизикaми пpoмиcлoвиx підпpиємcтв : магістерська робота : 072 Фінанси, банківська справа та страхування / С. В. Пapминcький ; керівник роботи Шишкінa О. В. ; Національний університет «Чернігівська політехніка», кафедра фінансів, банківської справи та страхування. – Чернігів, 2020. – 90 с.
Oб’єктoм дocлідження ВКP є ПAТ «Ічнянcький зaвoд cуxoгo мoлoкa тa мacлa». Метa квaліфікaційнoї poбoти пoлягaє у упpaвлінні фінaнcoвими pизикaми пpoмиcлoвиx підпpиємcтв в умoвax невизнaченocті зoвнішньoгo і внутpішньoгo cеpедoвищa. Зaвдaннями poбoти є: - дocлідження теopетичниx acпектів упpaвління фінaнcoвими pизикaми пpoмиcлoвиx підпpиємcтв, у тoму чиcлі, визнaчення cутнocті тa видів фінaнcoвиx pизиків, вивчення метoдів і пpийoмів для aнaлізу, oцінки тa упpaвління фінaнcoвими pизикaми - aнaліз і oцінкa упpaвління фінaнcoвими pизикaми пpoмиcлoвиx підпpиємcтв нa мaкpo і мікpoекoнoмічнoму pівні; - poзpoбкa зaxoдів cпpямoвaниx нa фopмувaння ефективнoї cиcтеми упpaвління pизикaми нa підпpиємcтві. Зa pезультaтaми дocлідження cфopмульoвaні зaxoди для фopмувaння ефективнoї cиcтеми упpaвління фінaнcoвими pизикaми нa підпpиємcтві. Oдеpжaні pезультaти мoжуть бути викopиcтaні для ефективнoї cиcтеми упpaвління pизикaми нa мoлoкoпеpеpoбнoму підпpиємcтві.
The object of the WRC study is PJSC "Ichnia Powdered Milk and Butter Plant". The purpose of the qualification work is to manage the financial risks of industrial enterprises in conditions of external and internal uncertainty. The tasks of the work are: - study of theoretical aspects of financial risk management of industrial enterprises, including the definition of the nature and types of financial risks, the study of methods and techniques for analysis, assessment and management of financial risks; - analysis and assessment of financial risk management of industrial enterprises at the macro and microeconomic level; - development of measures aimed at forming an effective risk management system at the enterprise. According to the results of the study, measures are formulated for the formation of an effective system of financial risk management in the enterprise. The obtained results can be used for an effective risk management system at the dairy plant.

Цимбал, А. В. Стан та перспективи розвитку банківської системи України : випускна кваліфікаційна робота : 072 "Фінанси, банківська справа та страхування" / А. В. Цимбал ; керівник роботи В. П. Ільчук ; НУ "Чернігівська політехніка", кафедра фінансів, банківської справи та страхування. – Чернігів, 2021. – 87 с.
Предметом дослідження є економічні відносини, що складаються між учасниками банківської сфери та перспективи розвитку цих відносин. Об’єктом дослідження виступає діяльність банківської системи на сучасному етапі розвитку. Мета кваліфікаційної роботи полягає у визначення стану та перспектив розвитку сучасної банківської системи України. Завданнями роботи є дослідити роль банківської системи в економічному розвитку країни. За результатами дослідження сформульовані висновки щодо функціонування сучасної банківської системи України. Одержані результати можуть бути використані що запропоновані в роботі практичні рекомендації слугують підґрунтям для покращення показників діяльності на об’єкті дослідження.
In the first chapter the theoretical bases of management of financial and economic security of banking institutions are disclosed, the essence, content and components of the bank's financial and economic security, its place in the system of economic and financial security of the state in general are highlighted. The main types of threats and factors that adversely affect the security of banking activity are considered. The second section analyzes the current state of the banking system of Ukraine, assesses the activities of the domestic banking system and identifies the main risks of the modern banking system of Ukraine based on assets and liabilities of banks for 2016-2020. The map of risks of the banking system as of December 2020-June 2021 was compiled. In the course of the work the analysis of financial and economic activity of UKRSIBBANK, coefficient analysis of business activity and liquidity for 2018-2020 was carried out. The third section proposes ways to stabilize the conditions of the banking system of Ukraine in modern conditions, a matrix of PEST-analysis of the functioning of the modern banking system. Based on the results of the analysis and matrix, the main threats to the functioning of the modern banking system are identified and a table of the main directions of improving the efficiency of the banking system of Ukraine is compiled. According to the results of the UKRSIBBANK activity study, measures have been proposed to improve the performance of UKRSIBBANK.

The Master thesis contents a propsal and evaluation of an investment project. The master thesis is divided into a theoretical and a practical part. The theoretical part describes the investment project together with an investment plan. The investment plan is further developed in more details and deals with a market analysis, a marketing plan, a size and a location of a company, its human resources, an operating plan, a financial plan, a financial analysis and above all with methods of assessment of investment projects. The practical part focues on a specific investment project proposal and its subsequent evaluation. The proposal offers a marketing research with a financial plan and financial analysis. The assessment of the project is carried out by using different methods of assessment of investment projects.

У дисертації розвинуто теоретичні засади та вдосконалено науково-методичні підходи до фінансового забезпечення процесів злиття і поглинання банківських установ. Уточнено тлумачення поняття «фінансове забезпечення процесів злиття і поглинання банківських установ». Ідентифіковано закономірності й протиріччя реалізації угод злиття і поглинання банків з метою підвищення їх конкурентоспроможності в Україні. Розроблено структурно-функціональну модель фінансового забезпечення процесів злиття та поглинання банківських установ із застосуванням сукупності відповідних методів, інструментів, важелів і видів фінансування. З’ясовано роль державного регулювання щодо підвищення ефективності моніторингу діяльності банків-учасників ринку злиття і поглинання. Удосконалено науково-методичний підхід до підвищення ефективності управління фінансовим забезпеченням процесів злиття та поглинання банків. Виокремлено основні етапи фінансування процесів злиття і поглинання банків. Розвинуто науково-методичні засади доцільності укрупнення банків для досягнення прибутковості банківської діяльності, науково-методичний підхід до фінансування з урахуванням специфіки бізнес-процесів на кожному етапі злиття чи поглинання банків, науковий підхід до підвищення рівня корпоративного управління новим банком і визначення стратегії розвитку новостворених банків за участю іноземного капіталу.
В диссертации разработаны теоретические основы и усовершенствованы научно-методические подходы финансового обеспечения процессов слияния и поглощения банковских учреждений. Раскрыты сущность и специфика преимуществ внешнего развития банковского учреждения за счет реализации соглашений слияния и поглощения без привлечения дополнительных финансовых ресурсов, таких как: снижение риска выхода на новые рынки, экономия времени, сохранение налаженных деловых связей и доверия потребителей, возможность достижения конкурентных преимуществ в процессе слияния или поглощения одного из конкурентов. Обосновано, что процессам консолидации банковских капиталов присуща динамика, колеблющаяся соответственно цикличности развития мировой и национальной экономик. Уточнено толкование понятия «финансовое обеспечение процессов слияния и поглощения банковских учреждений» как процесса управления аккумулированными денежными ресурсами для поступательного их использования при финансировании затрат по реализации соглашений слияния и поглощения с целью достижения эффекта масштаба и получения экономической выгоды. Расширены научно-методические основы при составлении соглашений слияния и поглощения относительно ориентации на приоритетность создания правовых, благоприятных и стимулирующих условий для национальных банковских учреждений. Усовершенствован научно-методический подход к построению модели жизненного цикла финансового обеспечения процессов слияния и поглощения банков, который содержит четыре основных этапа. Такой подход позволяет систематизировать подготовку к процессу интеграции (определение необходимых объемов финансирования); планирование (распределение объемов финансирования согласно этапам процесса слияния и поглощения); внедрение (поэтапное осуществление финансирования); посттрансформационные мероприятия (финансирование непредвиденных затрат). Разработана структурно-функциональная модель финансового обеспечения процессов слияния и поглощения банковских учреждений с применением совокупности соответствующих методов, инструментов, рычагов и видов финансирования, состав которых не является постоянным во времени, поэтому может совершенствоваться при изменении внутренних и внешних условий деятельности банков. Доработан научно-методический подход к повышению эффективности управления финансовым обеспечением процесса слияния и поглощения банков путем определения эффективности способов финансирования; выбора экономических агентов, которые больше подходят для реализации указанного процесса; обеспечения финансовыми ресурсами, необходимыми для эффективной реализации процесса; системного использования материального стимулирования для повышения эффективности реализации процесса слияния и поглощения. Предложены меры по повышению эффективности мониторинга деятельности банков-участников рынка слияний и поглощений, в частности, предложены мероприятия по устранению правовой асимметрии, связанной с государственной регистрацией консолидации банков; по стимулированию банков путем предоставления налоговых льгот банку-продавцу и осуществлению консолидированного налогообложения. Идентифицированы политические, экономические и правовые факторы, способствующие признанию процессов слияния и поглощения банков эффективным инструментом продвижения бизнес-процессов в мировом экономическом пространстве. Обоснован научный подход к определению стратегии развития новообразованных банков при участии иностранного капитала, который, в отличие от существующих, состоит в признании иностранных банков стратегическими инвесторами, заинтересованными в долгосрочном присутствии на национальных рынках.
In the dissertation theoretical principles are developed and methodological approaches of financial support for mergers and acquisitions processes of banks are improved. The concept «financial support of mergers and acquisitions processes of banks» is specified. The regularities and contradictions of mergers and acquisitions of banks implementation in order to increase their competitiveness in Ukraine are identified. The structural and functional model of financial support of mergers and acquisitions processes of banks with the use of appropriate methods, tools, mechanisms and types of financing is developed. The role of government regulation to improve the effectiveness of monitoring activities of banks participating in mergers and acquisitions market is found out. Scientific and methodical approach to enhancement the management effectiveness of financial support of mergers and acquisitions processes of banks is improved The main stages of financing the mergers and acquisitions processes of banks are determined. Scientific and methodological principles of expediency to consolidate banks to achieve profitability of banking activities, scientific and methodological approach to financing considering the specificity of business processes at every stage of mergers and acquisitions processes of banks, scientific approach to improvement of the level of new bank corporate management and determination of strategy development of newly established banks with participation of foreign capital are developed.

Долінський, Л. Б. Фінансовий механізм кредитно-інвестиційної діяльності банківських установ в Україні : дис. ... д-ра екон. наук : 08.00.08 / Л. Б. Долінський. - Чернігів, 2020. - 559 с
Дисертаційна робота присвячена вирішенню науково-практичної проблеми – обґрунтуванню теоретико-методологічних і методичних засад фінансового механізму кредитно-інвестиційної діяльності банківських установ та розробки практичних рекомендацій щодо їх реалізації. Досліджено генезис теорії і практики фінансового механізму кредитно-інвестиційної діяльності банківських установ. Поглиблено понятійно-категорійний апарат теорії фінансів в контексті розвитку науково-практичних підходів до розуміння сутності та ролі кредитно-інвестиційної діяльності банківських установ у сучасних фінансових відносинах. Підтверджено думку щодо необхідності активного розвитку кредитно-інвестиційної діяльності банківських установ, що здатна забезпечити формування необхідного обсягу фінансових ресурсів достатніх для ефективного функціонування фінансової системи країни, посилити фінансовий потенціал розвитку національної економіки. Доведено необхідність розвитку кредитно-інвестиційної діяльності банківських установ на основі системно-синергетичного підходу, який базується на розробленому механізмі її фінансування, та виступає основою забезпечення стабільності функціонування банківської системи країни. Обґрунтовано теоретико-методологічні положення щодо управління ефективністю та ризикованістю кредитно-інвестиційних операцій в основу яких покладено методологію ймовірнісного моделювання дефолтів боргових зобов’язань, яка дає змогу кількісно оцінити ризикованість кредитно-інвестиційних інструментів, побудувати адекватні стратегії ведення кредитно-інвестиційної діяльності банківських установ. Формалізована змістовність інструментарію фінансового механізму кредитно-інвестиційної діяльності банківських установ.
Диссертация посвящена решению научно-практической проблемы – обоснованию теоретико-методологических и методических основ финансового механизма кредитно-инвестиционной деятельности банковских учреждений и разработки практических рекомендаций по их реализации. Исследован генезис теории и практики финансового механизма кредитно-инвестиционной деятельности банковских учреждений. Расширен понятийно-категориальный аппарат теории финансов в контексте развития научно-практических подходов к пониманию сущности и роли кредитно-инвестиционной деятельности банковских учреждений в современных финансовых отношениях. Подтверждено мнение о необходимости активного развития кредитно-инвестиционной деятельности банковских учреждений, которая способна обеспечить формирование необходимого объема финансовых ресурсов достаточных для эффективного функционирования финансовой системы страны, усилить финансовый потенциал развития национальной экономики. Доказана необходимость развития кредитно-инвестиционной деятельности банковских учреждений на основе системно-синергетического подхода, который базируется на разработанном механизме ее финансирования, и выступает основой обеспечения стабильности функционирования банковской системы страны. Обосновано, что негативным фактором, сдерживающим развитие финансового и реального секторов экономики страны, является отсутствие продуманных, научно обоснованных теоретико-методических подходов к комплексному оцениванию рискованности кредитно-инвестиционных операций банковских учреждений. Предложены теоретико-методологические положения по управлению эффективностью и рискованностью кредитно-инвестиционных операций, в основу которых положена методология вероятностного моделирования дефолтов долговых обязательств, которая позволяет количественно оценить рискованность кредитно-инвестиционных инструментов, построить адекватные стратегии ведения кредитно-инвестиционной деятельности банковских учреждений. На основе методологии вероятностного моделирования разработаны математические модели, а также создано информационное и программное обеспечение процессов управления эффективностью и риском долговых обязательств. Разработанная методология и инструментарий входит в систему поддержки принятия рациональных кредитно-инвестиционных решений для банковских учреждений, что в свою очередь, является важной составляющей предложенного финансового механизма функционирования банковского сектора. Формализовано содержание инструментария финансового механизма кредитно-инвестиционной деятельности банковских учреждений
The dissertation is devoted to the solution of a scientific and practical problem – the substantiation of theoretical-methodological and methodical bases of the financial mechanism of the credit-investment activity of banking institutions and the development of practical recommendations concerning their implementation. The genesis of the theory and practice of the financial mechanism of the credit and investment activity of banking institutions is studied. The conceptual and categorical apparatus of the theory of finance in the context of the development of scientific and practical approaches to understanding the essence and role of the credit and investment activity of banking institutions in modern financial relations is deepened. The opinion on the need for active development of credit and investment activities of banking institutions, which is able to ensure the formation of the necessary amount of financial resources sufficient for the effective functioning of the country's financial system, to strengthen the financial potential of the national economy is confirmed. The necessity of the development of the credit and investment activity of banking institutions on the basis of the system-synergetic approach which is based on the developed mechanism of its financing, and serves as a basis of the stability maintenance of the banking system functioning in the country is proved. Theoretical and methodological provisions for managing the efficiency and riskiness of credit and investment operations, which is based on the methodology of the probabilistic modeling of debt default, which allows you to quantify the riskiness of credit and investment instruments, to build adequate strategies for lending and investment activities of banking institutions are substantiated. The content of the financial mechanism tools of the credit and investment activity of banking institutions is formalized

D. Tech. Civil Engineering
Construction contracts have provisional clauses to control financial risks, but studies have shown that cost overruns are still common, which require the inclusion of additional management techniques to improve cost estimates. The research investigated, analysed and identified the shortcomings that exist within the current mechanisms to manage financial risk. A new risk ranking model that can be used to eliminate construction cost overruns in South Africa was developed. The study sought the views from a variety of construction professionals, based on knowledge and experiences within their own organisations, to explore new mechanisms to limit the risk impact of persistent cost overruns.

The proposed book describes the static and dynamic models of optimization of production and financial activities of the enterprise in the conditions of deterministic source data, and taking into account the uncertainty and risk. In the latter case, when choosing a management decision, not only the amount of expected profit, but also various types of risks, as well as such an indicator as the stability of the selected option of production and economic activity to changes in the market environment, are taken into account.

The textbook is devoted to the study of issues of assessment and management of banking risks based on international approaches. The application of methods and methods for assessing, managing and minimizing risks in commercial banks is considered both from the point of view of implementing international recommendations and standards in the banking sector of the Russian Federation, and in the context of organizing internal systems and procedures in banks. Particular attention is paid to the evolution of regulatory requirements for risk assessment and capital adequacy to cover risks in accordance with international agreements developed by the Basel Committee on banking supervision. Alternative approaches to risk assessment and management, their advantages and disadvantages, prospects for use and impact on banks ' activities are analyzed. It is intended for students of master's programs of economic and financial faculties of higher education institutions, as well as for practitioners in the field of Finance and banking.

The article examines and develops the methodological and methodological basis of corporate finance management in the context of their strategic development, when investment and financing decisions are particularly relevant from the point of view of determining acceptable risks and the financial well-being of the corporation. The conceptual and methodological foundations of analytical support for corporate finance management are developed, based on the definition of investment policy, its implementation through investment business planning and identification and assessment of financial risks in the framework of achieving strategic goals related to the modernization of Russian corporations. The ways of improving the quality of the corporate finance management strategy based on the introduction of budgeting technology and the use of controlling the implementation of the corporation's financial strategy are proposed. It is intended for postgraduates, undergraduates, university teachers, researchers and practitioners, full-time and part-time students studying in the areas of "Economics", "Management", "Finance and Credit" (master's level), as well as anyone interested in the problems of strategic management of corporate finance.

This chapter focuses on genetic programming (GP), a stochastic optimization and model induction technique. An advantage of GP is that the modeler need not select the exact parameters to be used in the model beforehand. Rather, GP can effectively search a complex model space defined by a set of building blocks specified by the modeler. This flexibility has allowed GP to be used for many applications. The chapter reviews some of the most significant developments using GP: forecasting, stock selection, derivative pricing and trading, bankruptcy and credit risk assessment, and agent-based and economic modeling. Conclusions reached by studies investigating similar problems do not always agree; however, GP has proved useful across a wide range of problem areas. Recent and future work is increasingly concerned with adapting genetic programming to more dynamic environments and ensuring that solutions generalize robustly to out-of-sample data, to further improve model performance.

This paper discusses the main issues concerning sovereign fiscal and financial risks from public–private partnerships (PPPs) with a focus on contingent liabilities (CLs). It is based on the presentations and discussions that took place during the XI Annual Meeting of the Group of Latin American and the Caribbean Debt Management Specialists (LAC Debt Group), held in Barbados in August 2015. The main issues discussed include PPP risks assessment, institutional framework for PPP risk management, and accounting and reporting of CLs generated by PPPs. Six country cases (Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Honduras, Suriname, and Turkey) are presented to illustrate experiences with different degrees of development regarding the management of risks and CLs related to PPPs. The document concludes that PPP risk management should encompass the whole lifecycle of a PPP project, risks need to be identified and CLs must be estimated and monitored, and the institutional capacity of governments to evaluate and manage PPP risks plays a central role in the successful development of PPP contracts. Although institutional capacities in this regard have improved in recent years, estimations of CLs involved in PPPs are not regularly performed, and there is still room for improvement on the assessment, measurement, registration, budgeting, and reporting of risks and CLs related to PPPs.

The need to control the risk that accompanies businesses in their day- to-day operations, and at the same time changing economic conditions make risk management an almost indispensable element of economic life. Selection of the main aspects of the selected phases of the risk management process: risk identification and risk assessment are related to their direct relationship with the subject matter (risk identification to be managed; risk analysis leading to the establishment of a risk hierarchy, and, consequently, the definition of risk control’ methods) and its purpose (bringing the risk to acceptable level). It is impossible to identify the basic patterns of development of the oil and gas industry without exploring the relationship between economic processes and enterprise risks. The latter are subject to simulation, and based on models it is possible to determine with certain probability whether there have been qualitative and quantitative changes in the processes, in their mutual influence on each other, etc. The work is devoted to exploring the possibilities of applying the Granger test to examine the causal relationship between the risks and obligations of oil and gas companies. The analysis is based on statistical tests and the use of linear regression models.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is a complex legal-institutional system that, on the one hand, offers industrialized countries options for cost-effective emission reductions and, on the other, provides developing countries with opportunities for sustainable development. Investors face the difficulty of identifying suitable CDM projects from approximately 130 possible host countries and nearly 60 possible project activities. In order to develop points of reference for strategic investments, this paper identifies and categorizes the risks arising in the value creation process of bilateral energy projects into four action-related levels. At the host level, the focus is on political-institutional and sector-specific risks, while at the investor state level, the legal design of the CDM's complementary function is relevant. The project level covers technology- and process-related risks, with the identification of the reference case and the proof of additionality posing particular problems. The future design of the CDM and the reform of the procedure at the UNFCCC level pose a fundamental risk. A two-stage assessment procedure is proposed for risk assessment: a rough analysis captures sociographic, climate policy, institutional and sector-specific criteria of the host. The differentiation of the project stage allows the localization of the project in the value chain and a differentiation regarding the use of methods. The assessment of project registration is based on the methods used and gives recognition rates per method and project category; project performance is measured in terms of the ratio of emission reductions actually realized to those planned in the project documentation. A detailed analysis following the coarse analysis provides qualitative guidance for project evaluation. These include the Executive Board's methodological principles, correct application of methodologies, identification of the reference case, proof of additionality, as well as the financial conditions of the relevant sector and publicity-related aspects. Despite individual hosts and project technologies, the developed two-step risk analysis allows, with relatively little effort and in line with business practice, an initial assessment of CDM project risks, so that overall it lays a fundamental building block for the elaboration of a strategic implementation and sustainable investment under the CDM.

Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) as discussed in this report is an approach to enhance the well-being of communities at risk. As an integrated approach, ASP builds on the interface of Disaster Risk Management (DRM), Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Social Protection (SP) to address interconnected risks by building resilience, thereby overcoming the shortcomings of traditionally sectoral approaches. The design of meaningful ASP measures needs to be informed by specific information on risk, risk drivers and impacts on communities at risk. In contrast, a limited understanding of risk and its drivers can potentially lead to maladaptation practices. Therefore, multidimensional risk assessments are vital for the successful implementation of ASP. Although many sectoral tools to assess risks exist, available integrated risk assessment methods across sectors are still inadequate in the context of ASP, presenting an important research and implementation gap. ASP is now gaining international momentum, making the timely development of a comprehensive risk analytics tool even more important, including in Indonesia, where nationwide implementation of ASP is currently under way. OBJECTIVE: To address this gap, this study explores the feasibility of a climate and disaster risk analytics tool for ASP (CADRAT-ASP), combining sectoral risk assessment in the context of ASP with a more comprehensive risk analytics approach. Risk analytics improve the understanding of risks by locating and quantifying the potential impacts of disasters. For example, the Economics of Climate Adaptation (ECA) framework quantifies probable current and expected future impacts of extreme events and determines the monetary cost and benefits of specific risk management and adaptation measures. Using the ECA framework, this report examines the viability and practicality of applying a quantitative risk analytics approach for non-financial and non-tangible assets that were identified as central to ASP. This quantitative approach helps to identify cost-effective interventions to support risk-informed decision making for ASP. Therefore, we used Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia, as a case study, to identify potential entry points and examples for the further development and application of such an approach. METHODS & RESULTS: The report presents an analysis of central risks and related impacts on communities in the context of ASP. In addition, central social protection dimensions (SPD) necessary for the successful implementation of ASP and respective data needs from a theoretical perspective are identified. The application of the quantitative ECA framework is tested for tropical storms in the context of ASP, providing an operational perspective on technical feasibility. Finally, recommendations on further research for the potential application of a suitable ASP risk analytics tool in Indonesia are proposed. Results show that the ECA framework and its quantitative modelling platform CLIMADA successfully quantified the impact of tropical storms on four SPDs. These SPDs (income, access to health, access to education and mobility) were selected based on the results from the Hazard, Exposure and Vulnerability Assessment (HEVA) conducted to support the development of an ASP roadmap for the Republic of Indonesia (UNU-EHS 2022, forthcoming). The SPDs were modelled using remote sensing, gridded data and available global indices. The results illustrate the value of the outcome to inform decision making and a better allocation of resources to deliver ASP to the case study area. RECOMMENDATIONS: This report highlights strong potential for the application of the ECA framework in the ASP context. The impact of extreme weather events on four social protection dimensions, ranging from access to health care and income to education and mobility, were successfully quantified. In addition, further developments of CADRAT-ASP can be envisaged to improve modelling results and uptake of this tool in ASP implementation. Recommendations are provided for four central themes: mainstreaming the CADRAT approach into ASP, data and information needs for the application of CADRAT-ASP, methodological advancements of the ECA framework to support ASP and use of CADRAT-ASP for improved resilience-building. Specific recommendations are given, including the integration of additional hazards, such as flood, drought or heatwaves, for a more comprehensive outlook on potential risks. This would provide a broader overview and allow for multi-hazard risk planning. In addition, high-resolution local data and stakeholder involvement can increase both ownership and the relevance of SPDs. Further recommendations include the development of a database and the inclusion of climate and socioeconomic scenarios in analyses.

The problem of determining the investment priorities of the national economy development has been actuated. It has been argued that the formation of institutional preferences for activation of industry investment processes should be carried out taking into account the potential ability of each sectoral group enterprises to increase the added value. The scientific and methodical approach for sub-sectors investment attractiveness assessment has been formed on the example of the Ukrainian food industry. It has been recommended to use for this substantiated set of relative performance indexes which are duplicated in aggregate statistical state surveys based on the enterprise’s financial statements. It has been formed the recommendations for the investment priorities of food industry development in Ukraine which are based on the appropriate calculations made by the TOPSIS and CRITIC methods. Methods of economic-statistical and comparative analysis were used for structural and dynamic characteristics of the Ukraine industrial enterprises activities. Given that innovation processes should also cover small and medium-sized industrial enterprises, whose resource opportunities are mostly limited, it is proposed to expand them within the framework of a strategic partnership. Graphic modeling methods have been used to visualize the process of building the business structures resource potential on the basis of their strategic partnership. The influence of the motivational environment on the value of organizational relations within the partnership has been formalized.

The “Study on Disaster Risk Management A macroeconomic cost-benefit analysis for reducing the socio-economic risk of coastal erosion”, a dynamic modelling approach was developed to quantify the macroeconomic costs and benefits of investment in disaster risk reduction. The goal of the developed tool was multifaceted, with emphasis on assessing mixes of disaster risk reduction and financial protection instruments, and with a focus on addressing shortfalls in current disaster risk modelling methods. This work serves as the final report of the project and presents the results of an application of the developed Dynamic Model of Multi-hazard Mitigation Co-benefits (DYNAMMICs) framework to the country case of Barbados, demonstrating the applicability of the approach through empirical assessment of DRR investment options to combat coastal hazards facing the island country.

The report assesses the financial feasibility and risks for low income target groups of interventions in aquatic resource development; interventions in resource/habitat protection and the enhancement produced or proposed under the MRC fisheries programme.

Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.