Добірка наукової літератури з теми "Diversification of food supplies"

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate how supply chains can become more resilient through innovation initiatives. It examines the expansion and deepening of relationships between buyers and suppliers and the facilitatory role of the government in this process. Design/methodology/approach This study compares supply chains in the advanced manufacturing and food industries. It is based on qualitative research involving case studies and in-depth interviews with buyers, suppliers and facilitators from government. Findings The study reveals that innovation is critical in building more resilient supply chains. It uncovers the importance of power distribution, coordination, communication, trust and commitment for innovation within these relationships. Practical implications It provides implications about how best to develop effective buyer–supplier relationships through innovation and diversification, for marketing and purchasing managers, CEOs of manufacturing companies and suppliers and government players with responsibility for industry development and innovation. Originality/value It advances the industrial buyer–supplier literature by extending the predominantly business-to-business supply chain perspective to include the role of government in supply chains and their innovation.

The Food and Agriculture Organization/World Health Organization (FAO/WHO) International Conference on Nutrition (ICN), held in Rome in December 1992, recognized the widespread occurrence of micronutrient deficiencies, particularly in developing countries. The conference recognized food-based approaches as the most effective way to address existing micronutrient deficiencies. These approaches must include appropriate strategies to assure dietary diversification, improved food availability, food preservation, nutrition education, and food fortification. The final report of the conference included strategies and actions for preventing and controlling specific micronutrient deficiencies. It was proposed to ensure and legislate the fortification of foods or water with necessary micronutrients, where possible, when existing supplies fail to provide adequate levels in the diet. Food fortification has been successfully used in both developed and developing countries as one strategy to address micronutrient deficiencies. The primary purposes of food legislation are to protect the health of the consumer, protect the consumer from fraud, and facilitate trade. In the case of fortified foods, the target population must be protected from receiving either toxic or nutritionally ineffective levels of micronutrients. Legislation may be necessary to require adequate control over this fortification process by the food processors to ensure that levels of micronutrients are consistently within acceptable limits. Legislation may also be required to prohibit the addition of nutrients to commodities where it is nutritionally unnecessary or unsafe or where fortification may create an erroneous impression as to the nutritional value of the food. Any legislation regarding food fortification should incorporate the standards, recommendations, and guidelines of the Codex Alimentarius. The World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (the SPS Agreement) and the WTO Agreement on Technical Barriers to Trade (the TBT Agreement) have placed new importance on Codex standards, guidelines, codes, and recommendations.

The article discusses the problems and issues of further development of Russian grain exports. The main export grain crop for Russia is wheat; the volume of wheat supplies to the world market exceeds 35 million tons. The study provides a list of the main geographical areas importing Russian wheat and analyzes the dynamics of changes in its supply. However, the export orientation for wheat leads to imbalances in the structure of production and regional distribution of grain crops in Russia. Grain is of fundamentally high importance for solving the problem of import substitution for the production of meat and dairy products and ensuring food security for the population of Russia; therefore, the study emphasizes the need for state management of the grain balance. In the long term, the regulation of grain exports should be reduced mainly to a system of economic measures, but at the moment, government participation is necessary as a driver in the development of production and logistics infrastructure. The complex of economic and political factors determines the diversification of wheat supplies from Russia due to the Far Eastern direction.

In the context of studies on the effects of agricultural production diversity, there are debates in the scientific community as to the level of diversification appropriate for improving dietary diversity. In Tunisia, agriculture is a strategic sector for the economy and a critical pillar of its food sovereignty. Using instrumental variable methods to account for endogeneity, we have estimated the association between agricultural production diversity and women’s dietary diversity among smallholder farming households in the Sidi Bouzid governorate (central Tunisia). Although we found a low level of agricultural production diversity and a fairly diversified diet among women, we observed a systematic weak positive association between five different indicators of agricultural production diversity and women’s dietary diversity. We observed a stronger positive association between women’s dietary diversity and women being more educated and households being wealthier. Neither diversity of food supplies in food markets nor market distance were associated with women’s dietary diversity, whereas we observed a higher level of consumption of some products (dairy) when they were produced on the farm.

The article contains an analysis of the state, features and effectiveness of foreign trade relations of Ukraine with the Republic of Azerbaijan. It is revealed that the top priority of Ukraine in its approach to the expansion of cooperation with the Republic of Azerbaijan is the policy of diversification of energy sources. Also, Azerbaijan is to a large extent lucrative for Ukrainian businesses as a market for metal and agricultural products and a customer of Ukrainian advanced technologies and developments and engineering works. The industrial and agricultural sectors of the Azeri economy demand products and materials for oil and gas, extracting, defense, chemical, food and manufacturing industries. So, the Republic of Azerbaijan is interested in supplies of Ukrainian goods and exploitation of its science & technology capacities. The main risks and threats limiting the expansion of trade between the two countries are highlighted: prioritization by Azerbaijan of the stability in exports of energy sources to the main partners and attraction of investment to the domestic economy. It means that the Azeri party is unlikely to prioritize the supplies of hydrocarbons to Ukraine, hence, the issue of supplies will be discussed only in a declarative manner, with no visible prospects for its solution in the interests of Ukraine. The procedure of relations between Ukraine and Azerbaijan is regulated by an agreement. It may involve the risk of unilateral violation of this agreement by Baku with respect to the implementation of free trade zone. Its signal is the imposition by Baku of unjustified unofficial limitations on the volume of imported products made in Ukraine. Also, in certain case Ukrainian goods may be subject to additional shadow duties. Strategic and innovative areas of strengthening the commercial relations of Ukraine with the Republic of Azerbaijan in transport and transit, agriculture and food industry, information technologies, food safety and tourism are proposed. The organization of trading houses as an effective scheme for intensifying foreign trade cooperation between Ukraine and the Republic of Azerbaijan is highlighted.

Purpose – This purpose of this study is to provide empirical evidence of how cooperation is related to suppliers’ performance, a relationship that is thought to be affected by the type of customer and the extent to which the market is diversified. It analyzes horticultural exporting firms in southeastern Spain, which are the main suppliers of European markets. Together with their primary customers (large-scale retail companies such as Carrefour, Tesco and Aldi), these firms constitute a complex supply network composed of a variety of agents and sales channels. This network will be studied from the perspective of the supplier–supplier relationship that is critical to their survival. Design/methodology/approach – Starting with a detailed description of Europe’s vegetable supply chain, a hierarchical regression is used with an index of cooperation intensity, moderated by retail sales and market concentration. The authors test the hypotheses using panel data on a set of 118 horticultural marketing firms in southeast Spain for the period 2009-2011. Findings – Cooperation strategies are shown to have positive effects on performance (market creation, promotion, quality, training, joint supply purchases and research ventures). Moreover, the retail channel and market diversification are observed to have a positive effect on the relationship between cooperation and the supplier’s performance. They demonstrate that active cooperation strategies have a greater bearing on performance in those firms whose primary customers are retailers. This circumstance provides evidence of the synergies and benefits that may arise when the supplier integrates the retailer in the supply chain, but which do not arise with other types of customers. Research limitations/implications – Although this study refers to a specific sector (fruits and vegetables) and the statistical results are limited, they provide insights that may assist in understanding how other perishable produce-related industries work: such industries share many common features. Practical implications – A more stable relationship between suppliers and retailers in the perishable produce market will render the supply firm more cooperative, competitive and profitable. Increased performance does not arise from the better conditions and improved sales power offered by the customer but instead from the adaptability of the supplier. Likewise, market diversification drives the supply firm toward a cooperative strategy, making it more profitable and competitive. As a practical norm, market diversification alone will not have positive results on performance unless the firm proves capable of enhancing its capacity for cooperation. Social implications – Proper management of the agricultural produce supply chain has repercussions on all of the members of that chain, although special emphasis should be placed on producers and consumers. The availability of food, its quality and its safety depend on management during the production phase. Along these lines, and more specifically for the consumer, this work is relevant because the sector analyzed accounts for 40 per cent of the vegetables consumed in Europe. Originality/value – This article defends the supplier–supplier relationship as the starting point for the analysis of a supply network. In certain sectors, the suppliers’ ability both to solve their clients’ problems and to be profitable is conditioned on maintaining the network and, therefore, the basic focus must center on analyzing their relationships, always including the customer, who has a direct or indirect influence on those relationships. Previous research has not comprehensively addressed this issue, let alone that of a sector with agile and perishable products in which, due to its nature, decision-making about market destinations and sales channels is the order of the day.

The informal food sector is a vital part of rural, peri-urban and urban communities sitting alongside formal economic activities and trading procedures for centuries. It largely contributes to the local economy. However, since they source their supplies from agricultural produce in the local markets, they become vulnerable to the uncertainties which could possibly result to livelihood vulnerability. This descriptive study aimed to assess and describe the livelihood vulnerability level of the informal food sector, determine the issues, challenges and opportunities and identify policy implications that could improve the livelihood resiliency of the informal food sector in Occidental Mindoro. The Livelihood Vulnerability framework of Hahn (2009) where seven indicators were used in determining the vulnerability: socio-demographic profile, livelihood strategies, social network, health security, food security, access to utilities, and disaster experience. A random sampling of 200 informal food enterprises was employed to three market areas San Jose, Magsaysay and Rizal in Occidental Mindoro. The livelihood vulnerability index was used to describe the vulnerability level. The study revealed a low to moderate vulnerability level of the informal food enterprises. The issues, challenges and opportunities of the informal food sector include their limited access to formal credits, high dependency ratio, poor educational background, low marketing skills all contribute to their livelihood vulnerability. However their high adaptive capacity specifically in livelihood diversification and their ability to supply the essential needs of the market enhance their resilience They bank on two business strengths: affordability and availability which have become their investment to develop their regular buyers.

Bengkulu is said to be the center of the world's climate because of the influence of water conditions and the topography of the area where the rain cloud formation starts. The waters in Bengkulu Province become a meeting place for four ocean currents which eventually become an area where the evaporation process of forming rain clouds becomes the rainy or dry season and affects the world climate. Method to analyze descriptively, shows oldeman Classification and satellite rainfall estimation data is added. In relation to the Analysis of Potential Food Availability for the Coastal Areas of Bengkulu Province uses a quantifiable descriptive analysis method based. The results show that most are included in the Oldeman A1 climate zone, which means it is suitable for continuous rice but less production due to generally low radiation intensity throughout the year. In an effort to reduce or eliminate the impact of climate change on food crop production, it is necessary to suggest crop diversification, crop rotation, and the application of production enhancement technologies. Strategies in building food availability as a result of climate change are: First, develop food supplies originating from regional production and food reserves on a provincial scale. Second, Empowering small-scale food businesses which are the dominant characteristics of the agricultural economy, especially lowland rice and horticultural crops. Third, Increase technology dissemination and increase the capacity of farmers in adopting appropriate technology to increase crop productivity and business efficiency. Four, Promote the reduction of food loss through the use of food handling, processing and distribution technologies.

In the new geopolitical reality, the problem of ensuring food security has become more acute both in the whole world and in Russia. The Government of the Russian Federation has taken a number of short-term measures to stimulate agriculture and stabilize the food market. However, there are a number of risks and threats to the agrarian economy in the medium and long term (insufficient level of development of the I sphere of the agroindustrial complex, which supplies agriculture with means of production and material and technical resources; dependence on imported technologies; unbalanced institutional structure of agriculture; weak diversification of the rural economy and lagging social sphere of the village). The article analyzes these risks and threats on the basis of international and domestic statistics, including the specifics of their manifestation in the context of the subjects of the Russian Federation. The directions of agrarian policy are considered in order to mitigate the mentioned threats, including measures for the development of agricultural science and commercialization of its results, stimulation of small business in the agro-industrial complex and agricultural cooperation, sustainable development of rural areas.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Kentucky, 2006.
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The thesis is organized around two closely interlinked questions: (a) At a theoretical level, is it the case that diversification activities driven by economies of scope should lead to a positive correlation between diversification and profitability (b) Empirically, can a theoretical model account for observed patterns of diversification activities over time and across countries Following a general discussion of the main issues related to diversification in chapter 1, chapter 2 answers to the first question in the negative. In a model where diversification is induced by the presence of synergies, it is shown that diversified firms may be on average the less efficient firms on the market and may survive only due to the presence of synergies. This is consistent with the results of earlier empirical studies, showing no correlation between diversification and profitability. Therefore the empirical part of the thesis focuses on patterns of diversification rather than on the link with profitability. Models that attribute diversification to the presence of 'economies of scope' suggest that diversification patterns are determined by technological factors, that are stable over time and over countries. In chapter 3 a specific sector (food and drink) is analysed in the U.K. over a long time period (1962- 1986) and the U.K. experience is compared to that of Italy (in 1986) through a standard loglinear model and a separate analytical approach. The main results are as follows: (1) U.K. diversification patterns are remarkably stable over time; (2) Italian diversification patterns appear quite different from those of the U.K., whether in 1962 or in 1986. Since overall diversification levels for the U.K. in 1962 are similar to those in Italy in 1986, it seems that patterns of diversification may be induced by country specific factors. In order to unravel the difference between U.K. and Italian experience in chapter 4 a series of case studies of specific industries and firms is carried out. They suggest that in the Italian economy, where the distribution sector is poorly developed, large firms can enjoy a strong advantage by building up their own distribution networks. While the case studies indicate the possible importance of several other factors, it is this factor that appears to be the single most important influence underlying the difference between the U.K. and Italy.

Thesis (MAgricAdmin)--Stellenbosch University, 2014.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research provides South Africa's producers and exporters with information on new market opportunities for South Africa's selected agricultural and food products in the Southern African Development Community (SADC). There is increasing global competition and countries in Africa are increasingly targeted as export markets due to its population growth and its increasing per capita income. Both developed countries and developing countries such as the United States of America, China, Brazil, India, etc. are gradually increasing their exports to Africa. In Sub-Saharan Africa, this is also taking place in SADC. In this region, there has been a significant increase in total imports from the mentioned countries from 2001 to 2013. The International Trade Centre market selection method was used for product selection (using the Export Potential Index) and country selection (using the Market Attractiveness Index). Fourteen products were selected and Angola is the most attractive market in the region (SADC) and is ranked first in the Market Attractiveness Index for seven of the fourteen selected products. The top ranking markets for the 14 selected products were identified as: Mauritius for maize, sweetened milk powder, raw cane sugar and wheat or meslin flour; Angola for fresh apples, fresh or dried oranges, sparkling wine, bulk wine, refined cane or beet sugar, frozen bovine cuts, and frozen bovine carcasses and half carcasses; Mozambique for bottled wine; and Zambia for fresh grapes and soya beans. In most cases the countries with the second and third highest rankings in the Market Attractiveness Index also offer opportunities for market diversification. South Africa exports certain products to non-African countries, whereas these non-African countries export the same products to SADC. There are therefore opportunities geographically nearer to South Africa, because South Africa could export these products to SADC. Exporters should not necessarily abandon non-African markets in order to export to SADC; however they should be aware of opportunities close by and develop strategies to maximize profit and maintain sustainable markets.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie navorsing bied aan Suid-Afrika se produsente en uitvoerders inligting oor nuwe markgeleenthede vir Suid-Afrika se geselekteerde landbou-en voedselprodukte in die Suider Afrikaanse Ontwikkelingsgemeenskap (SAOG). Daar is toenemende globale mededinging en lande in Afrika word toenemend geteiken as uitvoermarkte as gevolg van bevolkingsgroei en die stygende per capita inkomste. Beide ontwikkelde en ontwikkelende lande soos die Verenigde State van Amerika, China, Brasilië, Indië, ens. verhoog geleidelik hulle uitvoere na Afrika. In Sub-Sahara Afrika, gebeur dit ook in SAOG. In hierdie streek, was daar „n betekenisvolle toename in invoere vanaf die genoemde lande van 2001 tot 2013. Die Internasionale Handelsentrum markseleksie metode is gebruik om produkte te kies (met die Uitvoer Potensiaal Indeks) en om lande te kies (met die Mark Aantreklikheidsindeks). Veertien produkte is gekies en Angola is die mees aantreklike mark in die streek (SAOG) en is bo-aan die lys in die Mark Aantreklikheidsindeks vir sewe van die veertien geselekteerde produkte. Die top markte vir die 14 geselekteerde produkte is geïdentifiseer as: Mauritius vir mielies, versoete melkpoeier, ruwe rietsuiker en mengkoringmeelblom; Angola vir vars appels, vars of gedroogde lemoene, vonkelwyn, grootmaat wyn, verwerkte riet- of beetsuiker, bevrore beessnitte, en bevrore bees karkasse en half karkasse; Mosambiek vir gebottelde wyn; en Zambië vir vars druiwe en vir sojabone. In meeste gevalle bied lande met die tweede en derde hoogste punte in die Mark Aantreklikheidsindeks ook geleenthede vir markdiversifikasie. Suid-Afrika voer sekere produkte uit na nie-Afrika lande, terwyl hierdie nie-Afrika lande weer dieselfde produkte na die SAOG uitvoer. Daar is dus geleenthede geografiese nader aan Suid-Afrika, want Suid-Afrika kan hierdie produkte na die SAOG uitvoer. Uivoerders moet nie noodwendig oorsese markte laat vaar om na die SAOG uit te voer nie, maar hulle moet bewus wees van nader geleenthede en strategieë ontwikkel om wins te maksimeer en volhoubare markte te handhaaf.

This case study analysis looks at four communities in Rift Valley, Kenya including Matisi, Moi’s Bridge, Sirende and Waitaluk. The research focuses on the role of markets in achieving food and livelihood security for the smallholders in these communities and smallholders’ perceptions of the roles of the Government of Kenya and other institutions in facilitating market access. The largest challenges to market participation, as reported by the smallholders in the studied communities, include low yields, weather inconsistencies, and lack of land. In terms of the Government of Kenya, many smallholders noted the benefits of participating in groups as they are subsequently offered training or field days and subsidies. A significant group of respondents did comment on their lack of interest in joining similar groups as they were seen as unstable or corrupt. The potential roles of formal and informal markets to increase food security were also analyzed. All smallholders wished to be participating in informal markets, but twenty-five percent were constrained by the lack of surplus produce. Similarly, although many reported their desire to be participants in formal markets lack of surplus produce, price fluctuations, inconsistent weather patterns, transportation costs and post- harvest losses or food waster were recognized as significant barriers. In order to mitigate these constraints, most smallholders recommended subsidies on inputs and the overall restructuring of markets. It is recommended that organizations and governments implement a livelihood diversification policy program or initiative to diversify and intensify agricultural activities and other non-agricultural activities. This case study analysis demonstrates the need to recognize the importance of local contexts, specifically Rift Valley as much of the research done in Kenya is found in Nairobi and surrounding areas and cautions labeling communities as food secure based on favorable conditions.

Masters of Art
Diversifying livelihoods has over the last two decades been identified as an important theme in the development work, particularly concerning the poverty reduction agenda. In the developing world, farm households, urged on by their survival instinct, diversify away from traditional subsistence agriculture to the production of high-value crops and at other times engage in off-farm and non-farm activities. This has become necessary due to the failures of agriculture to guarantee farm households sustainable livelihoods and improve their welfare. In sub-Saharan Africa, diversification is a vital instrument for reducing rural people’s risk to poverty. In recent years, however, diversification has been closely linked to food security. This is due to the fact that chronic food insecurity and its accompanying vulnerabilities continue to thwart poverty reduction efforts in the developing world. Paradoxically, whereas available statistics suggests that there is enough food to feed everyone, close to 900 million of the world’s population is still food insecure. By implication, the food security challenge hinge on ‘access’ rather than food availability. In sub-Saharan Africa and for that matter Northern Ghana, the phenomenon is quite pervasive, often affecting rural farm households. This signals one thing – a travesty to the existence of international human rights frameworks. Already, available empirical studies on the extent to which diversification amongst farm households impact on assuring household food security have revealed mixed results and are silent on the gender consequences. Using World Food Programme’s 2012 Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis survey conducted in northern Ghana and an ordinary least squares estimator, this study sought to examine how livelihood diversification contributes to household food security and subsequently validate its effect for male and female-headed farm households in the Bole district of the Northern region of Ghana. Results from the study revealed a significant positive relationship between livelihood diversification (the number of livelihood activities farm households engaged in) and household food security (household food consumption score). Whereas similar result was observed for male-headed households, that of female-headed households was insignificant even though positive. Following this, the study proposes a two-fold policy strategy for optimizing the impact of livelihood diversification on guaranteeing food security amongst farm households in the case study district in particular and northern Ghana in general. Firstly, support for boosting smallholder agriculture should be pursued rigorously, taking advantage of programmes such as the Savannah Plan for Accelerated Growth. Secondly, sustaining, up-scaling and re-orienting programmes such as Rural Enterprises Project and creating the policy milieu for farm households to explore local opportunities like eco-tourism should be mainstreamed, taking into account concerns of gender.

Abstract Precise predictions and solutions for tomorrow's needs are the key to building a growing, sustainable business. This requires a mixture of vision, strategic risk taking business model and investment in new technology. Refining trends forecast is useful for predicting possible landscape, where in challenge would be to meet twice the energy levels from today with half the CO2 emissions by 2030. Increasing and diversification of world's energy supplies to support the population of over 8 billion then would be a mammoth task, given that the triangle of energy, food and water will be crucial. Three fundamental factors that will influence and shape this setting are: Global products demand will rise by 1.1% - 1.3% annually by 2030 to over 115 million barrels per day, with marginal influence of crude oil prices;Reinforced legislation targeting reduction of GHG emissions, requiring improved clean transportation and bunker fuels - accounting 2/3rd of total demand and growth;Refining and Petrochemicals form the backbone of global economics and meeting demand with inevitable steady profitability is a major task possibly also using alternative unconventional sources. In competitive context – innovation, operational excellence and implementation of robust strategies are critical for sustenance and growth. Project returns can however be enhanced by incorporating integration principles and model at the design stage itself. Whilst development pace of new technologies would accelerate which can radically alter business structure in certain geographies, question remains on what makes a successful project come to fruition. The presentation discusses futuristic economic unlocking of value by application of technology models and best practices by utilizing various feed-stocks, including natural gas as a main competitor and maximum upgrading bottom-of-the-barrel. Besides, novel process designs and operational control would be squeezed as it is invariably the last fraction which is most difficult to remove! This paper contains forward-looking scenario about global Refining strategy, Petrochemicals feed-stock cost advantages, technology diversification routes to maximize returns from cheaper sources, financial performance and economics, growth opportunities in various countries, sectors or markets, besides a focus on Europe and GCC regions and current projects in Kuwait. However, these involve uncertainty as they depend mainly on future circumstances like commercializing R&D, not all of which can be controlled or accurately predicted, hence are directional for investment decisions.

Southern Madagascar’s worst drought in 40 years had devastating cumulative effects on harvest and livelihoods. On top of this, frequent sandstorms and pest infestations have led to severe stress on vegetation triggering a drastic decline in rice, maize and cassava production. These environmental aspects, combined with a lack of livelihood diversification and ongoing poverty, the presence of cattle raiders and restrictive government decisions, have driven the population of southern Madagascar to acute food insecurity conditions. By December 2021, more than 1.6 million people were estimated to have been suffering high levels of food insecurity. This case is an example of how multiple, complex environmental and social factors can combine to trigger a profound crisis in a territory, where vulnerable groups, such as children under five, tend to be particularly affected. Environmental degradation, together with socioeconomic and political dynamics are leaving vulnerable people even more exposed to food crises with few livelihood options or safety nets to cope with disasters. This technical background report for the 2021/2022 edition of the Interconnected Disaster Risks report analyses the root causes, drivers, impacts and potential solutions for the Southern Madagascar food insecurity through a forensic analysis of academic literature, media articles and expert interviews.

This report from the Foodprint Melbourne research project presents a roadmap of strategies and policy approaches for strengthening the resilience of Melbourne’s food system to shocks and stresses. It focuses particularly on shocks and stresses related to climate change and pandemic, but also considers underlying food system stresses, such as high levels of food waste and declining supplies of the natural resources that underpin food production. The combined effects of these shocks and stresses undermine the resilience of food systems, drive up food prices and increase food insecurity. The report identifies six key areas of opportunity for action to strengthen the resilience of Melbourne’s food system to future shocks and stresses.

This report from the Foodprint Melbourne project summarises the findings of an investigation into the resilience of Melbourne’s food system to shocks and stresses. It focuses particularly on the resilience of Melbourne’s food system to climate and pandemic shocks and stresses. However, it also considers longer term underlying stresses on Melbourne’s food system from declining supplies of natural resources and environmental degradation. The report discusses the impacts of shocks and stresses throughout the food system from food production to consumption and the generation of waste. It identifies vulnerabilities in the city’s food system to these shocks and stresses, and it discusses the features of a resilient food system.

The aim of the Kitchen Life 2 project is to identify the key behaviours relating to food safety that occur in domestic and business kitchens, as well as the factors that may reduce the likelihood to enact recommended food safety and hygiene behaviours. The outcomes will inform risk assessment and development of hypotheses for behavioural interventions. The goal of this literature review was to ensure that the research design and fieldwork techniques identify existing key behaviours, actors, triggers and barriers in domestic and business kitchens to develop successful behavioural interventions and risk assessment models. Additionally, we have included the impacts of Covid-19 pandemic and national lockdowns on food safety practices in domestic and business kitchens. This addition is important because FSA policy response to the pandemic should address the needs of both consumers and food businesses due to reduced ability to deliver inspection and enforcement activities, business diversification (for example, shifting to online delivery and takeaway), increasing food insecurity, and change in food consumption behaviours (for example, cooking from scratch) (FSA, 2020).

The contamination of surface and subterranean drinking water supplies with nitrogen-laden agricultural wastewater is a problem of increasing concern in the U.S. and Israel. Through this research, we found that bacteria could utilize common organic wastes (e.g. paper, straw, cotton) as carbon sources under anaerobic conditions, and reduce nitrate concentrations in wastewater to safe levels. Two species of bacteria, Cellulomonas uda and a Comamonas sp., were required for dentitrification. Celulomonas uda degraded cellulose and reduced nitrate to nitrite. In addition, it excreted soluble organic carbon needed as a food source by the Comamonas sp. for completion of denitrification. We also found that recirculated irrigation water contains substantial amounts of fungal inoculum, and that irrigating healthy plants with such water leads to significant levels of root infection. Water can be disinfected with UV, but our experiments showed that Hg-vapor lamps do not possess sufficient energy to kill spores in wastewater containing dissolved organics. Excimer lasers and Xenon flashlamps do possess the needed power levels, but only the laser had a high enough repetition rate to reliably treat large volumes of water. Ozone was highly efficacious, but it's use as a water treatment is probably best suited to moderate or low volume irrigation systems. This research provides critical data needed for the design of effective water denitrification and/or pathogen disinfection systems for different growing operations.

COVID-19 brought the public’s attention to the critical value of transportation and supply chain workers as lifelines to access food and other supplies. This report examines essential job skills required of the middle-skill workforce (workers with more than a high school degree, but less than a four-year college degree). Many of these middle-skill transportation and supply chain jobs are what the Federal Reserve Bank defines as “opportunity occupations” -- jobs that pay above median wages and can be accessible to those without a four-year college degree. This report lays out the complex landscape of selected technological disruptions of the supply chain to understand the new workforce needs of these middle-skill workers, followed by competencies identified by industry. With workplace social distancing policies, logistics organizations now rely heavily on data management and analysis for their operations. All rungs of employees, including warehouse workers and truck drivers, require digital skills to use mobile devices, sensors, and dashboards, among other applications. Workforce training requires a focus on data, problem solving, connectivity, and collaboration. Industry partners identified key workforce competencies required in digital literacy, data management, front/back office jobs, and in operations and maintenance. Education and training providers identified strategies to effectively develop workforce development programs. This report concludes with an exploration of the role of Institutes of Higher Education in delivering effective workforce education and training programs that reimagine how to frame programs to be customizable, easily accessible, and relevant.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.