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Статті в журналах з теми "Démographie – Épidémiologie – Modèles mathématiques":
Bekolle, David. "Les modèles mathématiques en épidémiologie. L’exécution du testament de Sir Ronald Ross." Journal of the Cameroon Academy of Sciences 15, no. 2 (February 10, 2020): 75. http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/jcas.v15i2.1.
Дисертації з теми "Démographie – Épidémiologie – Modèles mathématiques":
Saubin, Méline. "Effets des variations démographiques sur la structure génétique de populations, dans le cadre d'une maladie émergente." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Paris, AgroParisTech, 2022. http://www.theses.fr/2022AGPT0013.
The demography and genetic structure of a population are closely linked. The study of this interplay is crucial, especially for organisms with frequent demographic fluctuations such as pathogen species responsible for emerging diseases. Classical population genetics models have been used to explore this link for simplified demographic processes. In this thesis, I further investigate the interplay between demography and genetic evolution in pathogen species that display complex life cycles. For this purpose, I focus on two ecological systems that strongly deviate from demographic equilibrium, each of which allows for realistic modelling assumptions. The first ecological system focuses on a major selection event with the temporal dimension being of prime importance. The second system reports recurrent colonisation events in which the spatial aspect is decisive.In the first part, I study an event of resistance overcoming by a pathogen population. Firstly, a modelling approach is used to establish the conditions for observing resistance overcoming and to identify the determinants of resistance durability. The results highlight the antagonistic effect of the proportion of resistant hosts deployed in the agricultural landscape, which decreases the probability of overcoming but increases the speed of overcoming when it occurs. Secondly, this model is implemented to account for genetic evolution at neutral loci. The results identify three demographic scenarios associated with distinct genetic signatures during resistance overcoming: 1) small variations in population sizes and small changes in genetic structures, 2) a strong founder event on the resistant host that in turn creates a genetic structure on the susceptible host, and 3) an evolutionary rescue event that results in a strong founder event on the resistant host, preceded by a bottleneck on the susceptible host. Finally, this theoretical framework of demogenetic analysis is applied to empirical data to infer the parameters underlying the overcoming of resistant RMlp7 poplars by the pathogen Melampsora larici-populina. Two parameters are particularly well estimated and the inferred values are in agreement with our biological knowledge: a high proportion of resistant hosts in the landscape (more than 80%) and an initial frequency of virulent alleles in the pathogen population between 5 and 10%.In the second part, I study colonisation and its genetic consequences. These analyses focus on the recurrent invasion of the Durance River valley by Melampsora larici-populina. Firstly, a mechanistic-statistical model is coupled to epidemiological data to infer the parameters underlying the pathogen's expansion dynamics. This approach shows that colonisation results from frequent long-distance dispersal events, with an average dispersal distance of more than two kilometres. Secondly, the characterisation of several annual colonisation events highlights a similar genetic structure which amplitude however varies greatly between years. Two extremes are identified: in 2011, strong conservation of the initial genetic diversity along the colonised domain; in 2004, rapid erosion of genetic diversity. The inter-annual variations in these structures can be explained by variations in the frequency of long-distance dispersal events.This work highlights the importance of contextualised models that take into account demogenetic variations for a better understanding of biological systems. The information obtained is then crucial for developing relevant control strategies against pathogen populations responsible for emerging diseases
Zaffaroni, Marta. "Modélisation des interactions plant-puceron, en considérant explicitement le rôle des pratiques agricoles : Pêche (Prunus persica) - puceron vert (Myzus persicae) comme cas d'étude An ecophysiological model of plant–pest interactions: the role of nutrient and water availability Maximizing plant production and minimizing environmental impact: comparing agricultural management scenarios with multi criteria decision analysis The role of vectors interference in a shared host-multi vector system." Thesis, Avignon, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020AVIG0723.
Aphids alter plant development and can transmit viruses, thus representing a major threat for crops. Aphid pressure on plant can be reduced and crop production can be enhanced by facilitating some ecological processes in addition, or in substitution, to the use of pesticides. Mathematical models can help in predicting the direction and strength of these ecological processes and they can reveal the impact of alternative ways of managing crops. The proposed thesis aims to develop process based mathematical models coupling plant physiology and aphid demography to drive ecological intensification and reduce the use of pesticides. The models consider i) interactions between plant and aphid, while most crop models only consider the effect of the pest on the plant and not vice versa hence impairing insights upon bottom-up pest control via cultural practices; and ii) the effect of cultural practices and the outcome in terms of harvest, issues that are usually absent in ecological models. Therefore, I firstly couple a mechanistic plant growth model with a pest population model, I calibrate it for a peach-green aphid system and I use it to get insights on the mechanisms behind the response of aphids to fertilization and irrigation. Furthermore, I develop an epidemiological model explicitly accounting for the interference between two aphid vectors. I apply the model to explore the effect of inter-specific aphid interference in shaping the spread of plant viruses, considering the effect of agricultural practices
Springer, Sabine. "La projection des ménages selon la taille pour tous les pays membres de l'ONU : utopie ou approche valable ?" Bordeaux 4, 2007. http://www.theses.fr/2007BOR40010.
The number and size of households are an important information for the political, administrative and private sector. The model used by UN-Habitat projects the number of households by size for all member countries of the UN. In case of insufficient data the total number is estimated. This work evaluates the technical feasibility, the reliability and the pertinence of the results of this model. It takes into account the avaibility and the quality of data and the comparability of results between countries, especially in what concerns definitions. The hypothesis of a universal evolution of households has to be questioned in the light of the differences observed between countries. But these can often be explained through differences in the age structure of the population and in urbanisation levels. A diversification of hypotheses on the future evolution of the total number of households is necessary so that this approach is valid and of utility for the majority of countries
Deslandes, Emmanuelle. "Modelisation des données longitudinales complexes en épidémiologie." Paris 6, 2010. http://www.theses.fr/2010PA066161.
Camacho, Anton. "Approches stochastiques pour la modélisation en épidémiologie : application à la grippe humaine." Paris 6, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011PA066460.
Rochet, Marie-Joëlle. "Apports des modèles mathématiques en épidémiologie : points de vue sur la filariose de Bancroft." Lyon 1, 1991. http://www.theses.fr/1991LYO10237.
Noël, Pierre-André. "Dynamique de modèles épidémiologiques : applications au cas du virus du Nil occidental." Thesis, Université Laval, 2007. http://www.theses.ulaval.ca/2007/24606/24606.pdf.
El, Zant Manal. "Contribution à une représentation spatio-temporelle des dépêches épidémiologiques." Aix-Marseille 2, 2008. http://www.theses.fr/2008AIX20666.
A spatio-temporal representation of event structures is important for an automatic comprehension of disease outbreak reports. The dispersion of components in this type of reports makes it difficult to have such a representation. This work describes an automatic extraction of event structures representation of these texts. We built an information extraction system by using cascaded finite state transducers which allowed the realization of three tasks : the named entity recognition, the arguments annotation and representation and the event structure representation. We obtained with this method a recall between 74. 24% and 100% for the named entity recognition task and a recall between 97. 18% and 99. 54% for argument representation task. Thereafter, we contributed to a normalization task in anaphoric pronouns resolution and in some inferences resolution concerning disease causation, concerned person, spatial and temporal location. We obtained a precision between 70. 83% and 100% for anaphoric pronouns resolution. The evaluation of inferences rules resolutions consisted in finding some counterexamples in the corpora for evaluation
Tewa, Jean Jules. "Analyse globale des modèles épidémiologiques multi-compartimentaux : application à des modèles intra-hôtes de paludisme et de V.I.H." Metz, 2007. http://docnum.univ-lorraine.fr/public/UPV-M/Theses/2007/Tewa.Jean_Jules.SMZ0710.pdf.
In this thesis, we analyse intrahost models of malaria and H. I. V. These models are of relatively recent appearance and describe the dynamics of the various stages of the parasites, like their interaction with the host cells, in particular the red blood cells and the immunity effectors. During this decade, there was a considerable work on the mathematical modeling of plasmodium falciparum infection ; a review has been done by Molineaux and Dietz. Our work forms part of this effort of comprehension of the models of Anderson, May and Gupta. The study of these models aims three principal goals : to explain the observations by biologically convincing assumptions, to predict the impact of the interventions (for example the use of the anti-paludic drugs and impregnated mosquito nets) and to consider the parameters hidden (one of these parameters being size of the sequestered population of red blood cells). We analyze the stages progression and the differential infectivity models ; then we leave the original model of Anderson, May and Gupta to propose and analyze a general model having the double advantage of describing the dynamics of evolution of the red blood cells, as well as the stages of morphological evolution of the parasites inside the parasitized red blood cells ; to finish we analyze a model whose innovation compared to the precedent is the bond between the compartment of susceptibles and that of the infectious one. We establish in all the studied cases here the global asymptotic stability of the disease free equilibrium (DFE) when the basic reproduction ratio R0 1. What means that the disease naturally dies out. We also obtain for each model studied here, a condition for global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium when R0 > 1. In certain cases, the principle of exclusive competition is also used to slice
Leclerc, Melen. "Approche par modélisation et expérimentation du développement spatio-temporel des maladies telluriques : le cas du pathosystème betterave à sucre – Rhizoctonia solani." Rennes, Agrocampus Ouest, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013NSARC109.
Nowadays it is still difficult to predict and control the spread of soilborne diseases that cause substantial damage in crop systems. The aim of this epidemiological interdisciplinary work is to propose models for the spatio-temporal spread of soilborne pathogens in order to point out key parameters for the control of soilborne diseases. This thesis considers the spread of Rhizoctonia solani on sugar beet as an example pathosystem and focuses on three main problems. First, we use experimental measures of the dispersal of the pathogen to parameterise a stochastic spatially explicit model and we show that host growth can trigger the development of epidemics by causing a switch from non-invasive to invasive behaviour. Second, using experimental data we build an age-varying model for the distribution of the incubation period that links hidden infections and above-ground observations of the disease. Then, we investigate the cryptic behaviour of epidemics by using a hierarchical model that considers a realistic incubation period. Third, we use a spatially-implicit model to estimate rates of infection from temporal disease data, and, to analyse the effects of biofumigation on epidemics. These parameters are integrated into an individual-based model to predict the stochastic development of epidemics. Our results confirm that biofumigation only permits a partial control and suggest that this biological control reduces uncertainty of the cryptic development of the disease. To finish with, we discuss the results of the thesis and we present the perspectives of this work
Книги з теми "Démographie – Épidémiologie – Modèles mathématiques":
Chesnais, Jean-Claude. La démographie. Paris: Presses universitaires de France, 1990.
Bulle, Thierry. Comparaison de populations: Tests non paramétriques et analyse de variance. Paris: Masson, 1990.
Mode, Charles J. Stochastic processes in demography and their computer implementation. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1985.
Susan, Scott. Human demography and disease. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998.
Malchow, Horst. Spatiotemporal patterns in ecology and epidemiology: Theory, models, and simulation. Boca Raton: Chapman & Hall/CRC Press, 2008.
George, Christakos, ed. Interdisciplinary public health reasoning and epidemic modelling: The case of Black Death. Berlin: Springer, 2005.
Chesnais, Jean-Claude. La démographie. QUE SAIS JE, 2010.
Khmaladze, Estáte V. Statistical Methods with Applications to Demography and Life Insurance. Taylor & Francis Group, 2019.
Khmaladze, Estáte V. Statistical Methods with Applications to Demography and Life Insurance. Taylor & Francis Group, 2013.
Khmaladze, Estáte V. Statistical Methods with Applications to Demography and Life Insurance. Taylor & Francis Group, 2013.