Добірка наукової літератури з теми "Demand supply gap"

The growing water and sanitation crisis in the world calls for enormous efforts from water professionals as well as economic and political leaders. The climate change contributes to the acuteness of the problem, with dryer areas in some parts of the world and severe floods and rains in other parts. The European Water Supply and Sanitation Technology Platform (WSSTP) is an industry driven organisation aiming to strengthen the potential for technological innovation and the competitiveness of the European Water Industry but is also a response to global challenges and regional demands to ensure safe, secure and sustainable water and sanitation services for the benefit of industry, the society and the environment. The supply of electrical energy has to be carefully considered as a pre-requisite for water supply and sanitation. The production of biogas can be significantly increased by using instrumentation and control. The use of monitoring and control has wide consequences for safe and reliable water supply and sanitation.

In later a long time, there has been an increment within the request for scientific bookkeepers due to an increment in debasement cases that are progressively complex and high. However, with expanding request, there's a lopsidedness between supply and request. The supply that the analyst implies is measurable bookkeeping instruction that make legal bookkeepers. Hence, this study points to decide the contrasts within the competencies of scientific bookkeeping specialists that must be had by the education on measurable bookkeeping advertised. This ponders employments essential information within the shape of perceptions and interviews. The test of this inquiries about measured to 17 websites from a few colleges overseas and colleges in Indonesia and this study utilized three tests of asset people from two distinctive teach. This investigate could be an expressive subjective inquire about utilizing triangulation test of information sources. This consider found that there are contrasts of supposition between scientific bookkeeping professionals and academics with respect to the competencies that legal bookkeepers must have and with respect to the themes of courses and educational modules. The results have suggestions that the bookkeeping ponder program can contain course themes that are not as it were related to specialized viewpoints but too delicate abilities and difficult abilities that a legal bookkeeper ought to have. Keywords: Capability, gap, requirement, forensic accounting, offer, colleges

The acquisition and development of skills required to function in the world of work are of obvious importance to any society. More than ever, a country's competitiveness depends on the skills of its workforce. What do we know about required skills? Which skills are truly important? How are these skills developed? What are formal organizations doing about skill development? In Canada, the ‘Making the Match’ research project, started in 1985, has been seeking answers to these questions.

Nepal's farmers report fertilizer shortages yearly, especially for rice, wheat, and maize production. A reliable and established approach to estimating the actual demand for fertilizers for different crops and cropping seasons is lacking. Therefore, it is difficult to project the types and quantity of fertilizer to import and allocate across various regions in the country. With the direct involvement of the Government of Nepal (GoN) in fertilizer import, price (subsidy), and distribution, together with the high affinity of farmers for the subsidy, there is no incentive for the private sector to import and distribute fertilizers. Thus, farmers’ access to fertilizers in the country depends primarily on the subsidy budget, quantity and types of fertilizers imported, and their distribution management. In this study, the fertilizer demands, both at the national and sub-national levels, were estimated through a survey of cooperatives that distribute subsidized fertilizers in the country. Our estimate suggests that the fertilizer supplied in 2018/19 was only 60% of the total effective demand in the country. With this estimate of the demand-supply gap and the price variability across provinces, short, medium, and long-term policy recommendations are made to improve the supply of chemical fertilizer in the country SAARC J. Agric., 20(2): 223-234 (2022)

This paper explores the extent to which foundation phase teacher supply meets demand in South Africa, against a backdrop of considerable change in an education system endeavouring to fulfil the needs of a 21st century society while still battling with significant inequalities in the distribution of skills. The primary purpose of the paper is to use recently sourced teacher education data from a range of national databases to determine to what extent state-led interventions are assisting to meet the foundation phase teacher supply and demand challenge. The data, as well as the more qualitative aspects of their context, are analysed at the macro (national) level to present a more nuanced picture of foundation phase teacher supply and demand. The study attempts to move beyond simply basing an analysis of supply and demand on teacher attrition, and takes into account multiple variables that should be considered in supply and demand planning. It also goes beyond simply matching supply to demand in the most recent year for which data is available, to forecasting a future scenario which will need to be planned for. The paper concludes by suggesting steps that should be taken to ensure a better match between supply and demand.

Water scarcity is one of the leading challenges for sustainable development in the context of climate change, particularly for agriculturally reliant countries. Inadequate water supplies tend to generate environmental and health issues. Improvements in water supply systems should give priority to the region with the most severe mismatch between water supply and demand. To set priorities for the improvement of water supply systems, this study proposed a water supply-demand balance model to quantify the water supply-demand gap in the Koshi River basin and compared it with the traditional water vulnerability model. The results suggested that (1) the water supply-demand balance model had good applicability to the Koshi River basin and was superior to traditional models in identifying the region with the most severe mismatch; (2) the shortage of agricultural water was much more serious than that of domestic water in the basin; (3) the largest supply-demand gap of domestic water was in Tarai and that of agricultural water was in the hill areas; and (4) Four districts, including Lalitpur, Mahottari, Makwanpur, and Solukhumbu, were found to be the most water-stressed regions and priority should be given to them. Based on these findings, the priority setting in the improvement of water supply systems and adaptation strategies for mitigating water stress from the perspectives of the government, communities, and households were presented. It helps design water supply systems that match heterogeneous demands and optimize systems operation. Targeted improvements in water supply systems can make limited funds available to benefit more residents.

Neurology faces an increasing shortage of neurologists in the United States due to a growing demand for neurologic services. A 7% increase in the supply of neurologists is predicted from 2012 to 2025, whereas the demand will rise by 16%. An increase in the neurology workforce is critical to meet the demands, and a significant gender gap remains within the workforce that must be addressed to further ease the discrepancy between supply and demand. Individual, institutional, and societal factors contribute to this gender discrepancy and potentially result in the burnout or soft attrition of women from neurology. These factors, including earning disparity between male and female neurologists, one of the largest gaps in pay for any medical specialty, and the lack of representation at higher academic levels with only 12% (14 of 113) of neurology department chairs at academic medical centers being women, could lead to increased attrition of women from neurology. Identifying and mitigating these factors may help narrow the gender gap and increase the supply of neurologists to better meet future demand.

"Water is likely to become one of the limiting resources of the next century, as well as one with multiple often conflicting uses." UNCEO NY1994 Presently, at least 1.1 billion of the world's people - about one in five - do not have access to safe water. City of Delhi in India is facing acute water crisis with a current demand supply gap of 236 million gallon per day (MGD) which is expected to widen to 564 MGD by the year 2021.ln view of the growing water crisis, the main objective of the thesis is to look into ways of mitigating the water crises in Delhi by bridging the water demand supply gap using environmental friendly and sustainable methods such as rainwater harvesting in the public green spaces of the region. The thesis begins with a thorough investigation of the Hydrological cycle (natural and urban), contemporary and traditional methods of rainwater harvesting, methods of recharge, and geological, hydro-geological and meteorological data of Delhi region. The regional data is overlaid and analyzed to define priority action areas and a conceptual action plan is recommended for each area. To demonstrate its feasibility, specific study areas are identified in the most stressed zone and investigated across four different scenarios ranging from neighbourhood to regional scale and from minimum to maximum intervention. It is learned through this investigation that public green spaces of Delhi hold great potential in bridging the water demand-supply gap. There are a range of modern and traditional methods available to successfully implement rainwater harvesting projects in these areas. They are technically and financially feasible and can be adopted at various levels depending on the availability of resources. It is found that public green spaces of Delhi which account for about 19% of the total urban area can bridge the water demand-supply gap by a maximum of 12.5%. Cost of the interventions can be amortized within 3 years and there are direct financial and environmental benefits to the local residents. The harvested rainwater can also be successfully used to meet the irrigation demand of the public green spaces partially, resulting in further cost savings to the government.
Applied Science, Faculty of
Architecture and Landscape Architecture (SALA), School of
Graduate

This PhD exploits the big datasets from the road transport network to accurately model the transit supply and demand, the knowledge for which is used to identify evidence-based transit gaps. The effectiveness of the proposed novel modelling is demonstrated with the case study on the Brisbane network. The developed tool assists transit stakeholders in identifying regions where transit services can be significantly improved, leading to efficient and reliable transit services.

Master of Science
Department of Communications and Agricultural Education
Shannon G. Washburn
STEM fields represent between 5% and 20% of all employed in the United States (United States Department of Labor – Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2015). Many employers of job positions in the STEM field have indicated an ongoing challenge of demand for such employees exceeding supply (Hira, 2010). Literature suggests a skills gap exists in some career fields and labor markets (Sentz, 2013). A topic that falls in many STEM fields in water resources. In Kansas, both supply and demand of water resources vary greatly across the state. A growing trend statewide, however, is a need to focus efforts on preserving the quality and quantity of Kansas’ water supply. Anecdotal evidence suggests the focus on water resources increases the demand for employees prepared for careers in related STEM fields (S. Metzger, personal communication, May 3, 2016). Drawing on both the Human Capital Theory and the Theory of Work Adjustment, descriptive survey research and qualitative interviews based in symbolic interactionism were used to gather data from employers of water-related job positions. The data indicated that a variety of employability and technical skills describe both employers’ ability requirements and employees’ ability sets. The results of the study suggest that, while employers have not recently experienced much challenge filling job vacancies, demand for employees could increase in the near future. Additionally, employers utilize a variety of professional development resources, and would utilize others if available. While levels of correspondence range among ability requirements and ability sets depending on the job position, efforts in education and recruitment could help address the supply of candidates for these positions.

The potential of small and micro-enterprises (SMEs) in promoting economic growth in both developed and developing countries is widely accepted and documented by both scholars and policy makers. Lack of access to sufficient financing for these SMEs, especially in developing countries, has been identified as a major bottleneck in realising this potential. Bank credit is one of the major ways of addressing the challenge of inadequate funding that exists in the SME sector. This study was undertaken in order to explore the experiences of bank loan officers and SME borrowers in credit extension to the SME sector in Uganda. The research methodology used multiple methods of data collection which enabled an element of triangulation to be built into the study design. Data was collected both from the supply-side (bank loan officers) and the demand-side (SME borrowers), and entailed unstructured and semi-structured interviews and a questionnaire survey of loan officer and SME borrower experience. Further data was collected through direct observation of the interactive interviews between loan officers and borrowers, which enabled a unique opportunity to enhance the understanding of experiences of loan officers and borrowers. This method offers a development of extant methodologies that have been used to assess bank lending to SMEs, typically indirect methods such as verbal protocols and hypothetical business plans. The supply-side findings suggest that, in addition to the bank lending guidelines and procedures, the organisational context in terms of institutional structure, borrower attributes (especially their knowledge of bank lending guidelines and procedures) and level of congruence between loan officers and organisational goals are important determining factors of credit flow to SMEs. This implies that the context in which lending guidelines are implemented is as vital as the application of these guidelines. Banks are, therefore, challenged to ensure a favourable organisational context in order to facilitate loan officer decisions. On the credit demand side, it was found that borrowers seek to play an active role in the lender-borrower relationship which, in turn, influences decisions made by loan officers. It was established that, in pursuit of this role, borrowers deliberately pre-plan loan requests in an effort to influence the results of the evaluation of their loan applications by loan officers. At times, borrowers intentionally manipulate the information they disclose to loan officers in order to enhance their chances of obtaining credit from banks. The findings also suggest that, in most cases, the borrowers with some knowledge of bank lending guidelines and procedures find it easier to access credit than their counterparts who lack this knowledge. With regard to women-owned SMEs, while there little evidence of ‘official’ discrimination against women-owned SMEs by bank lending policies, there are systematic, cultural, social and legal impediments that lead most women-owned SMEs to access lower levels of credit than their male counterparts. The study recommends that banks should design lending guidelines that integrate both supply and demand factors, instead of focusing only on supply factors like project viability and collateral availability. It is also recommended that banks should develop comprehensive training programmes for borrowers about all aspects of the lending transaction in order to positively influence them. It is further recommended that there should be more consultations with loan officers and borrowers in order to develop a mutually acceptable set of lending policies. This approach, which integrates bank management, loan officers and borrowers in drawing up lending guidelines and procedures, is likely to minimise information asymmetry in SME lending decisions and create a more conducive environment for promoting credit availability to the Ugandan SME sector.

Purpose – This study aims to explore, and suggest solutions to, the gap between the supply of information from organic meat producers and the demand of information from consumers regarding traceable characteristics (attributes) of meat in a limited geographical area in order to maximize the utilization and value of collected data. Design/methodology/approach – A mixed methods research design is applied to collect both quantitative data from consumers and qualitative data from suppliers to produce empirical results of the supply and demand of information. A theoretical framework of organic food purchase intent is used for the quantitative study as well as the correlation between consumers’ perceived importance of attributes and their willingness-to-pay for meat. The results of the empirical studies are compared to each other in an effort to expose a possible gap using a gap analysis. Findings – Meat is shifting from a price based commodity to a product based on characteristics. This study reveals that there is now a gap between the information made available by organic meat producers and the demand of information from consumers that needs to be recognized in order to maximize the value of collected data. Information regarding environmental impact of raising and transporting the animals is not extensively collected. A substantial amount of data about attributes of perceived importance, such as safety and handling, animal welfare and medication or other treatments is collected but not extensively shared with consumers. Research limitations/implications – The small sample size in a unique area and the scope of the survey data does not provide a result that can be truly generalized. It is therefore suggested that future studies produce results from a larger sample that incorporates the perceived accessibility of important information for consumers. Practical implications – This contributes to the emerging literature of organic food production by comparing both the supply and the demand of information regarding attributes of meat. This information is valuable to organic meat producers and marketers as well as developers of agricultural systems and databases that should shift their focus to consumer oriented traceability systems. Originality/value – This study goes beyond the substantial body of literature regarding attributes of organic food and consumers preferences by comparing these factors to the available supply of information by meat producers and by suggesting solutions to bridge the gap between them. Keywords – Organic meat, Organic agriculture, e-Agriculture, Traceability, Traceability systems, Consumer oriented, Consumer behavior, Willingness-to-pay, Supply and demand, Information gap, Gap analysis, Business development, United States of America, Sense-making theory, Mixed methods Paper type – Research paper, Bachelor’s thesis

The use of natural gas as a primary energy source has increased over time and is expected to increase even further in the near future. Cyprus and Israel, two countries in the Eastern Mediterranean, have recently made major offshore discoveries of natural gas, sufficient enough to cover their own needs for at least the next few decades and use an even greater amount for export. In this project, the software MESSAGE was used to conduct modelling of the two countries’ energy systems. Projections were made until 2050 of the electricity generation in each country from each major energy source under different scenarios and the possibility of exporting electricity, liquefied natural gas (LNG) or gas-to-liquid products (GTL) was assessed.

Diese Dissertation besteht aus drei Aufsätzen, welche die sozio-ökonomische Konsequenzen der Verwicklung in Konflikte untersuchen. Der erste Artikel untersucht den Einfluss der “Operation Iraqi Freedom” und des folgenden Bürgerkrieges auf die Beschulung von irakischen Kindern im schulpflichtigen Alter. Einen Schwerpunkt der Studie bildet die Überwindung eines Endogenitätsproblems, welches sich durch nicht-zufällige Verwicklung in Gewalt ergibt. Die Ergebnisse der Studie zeigen, dass in Abhängigkeit von der Intensität des Konfliktes die Schuleinschreibung von Mädchen durch eine Verwicklung in Konflikte zwischen sechs bis zwölf Prozent reduziert wird. Der bei Jungen gemessene Effekt beläuft sich auf eine Reduzierung um ein bis neun Prozent. Im zweiten Artikel werden Lohnzuschläge von hochqualifizierten palästinensischen Arbeitskräften in Zusammenhang mit alternierender Intensität im Nahostkonflikt gestellt. Mit dem Ausbruch der Zweiten Intifada im Jahr 2000 führen erhöhte Grenzkontrollen zu eingeschränkte Mobilität. Dadurch gewinnt Der Dienstleistungssektor in den Besetzten Gebieten an relativer Bedeutung. Dieser beschäftigt anteilig mehr hochqualifizierte Arbeitskräfte als andere Sektoren, was den Anstieg ihrer relativen Löhne erklärt. Im dritten Artikel wird die Entwicklung des Geschlechterlohndifferentials in den Palästinensischen Gebieten untersucht. Während der Lohnunterschied zwischen Mann und Frau bis 1999 ansteigt, lässt sich mit dem Ausbruch der Zweiten Intifada die Umkehrung dieses Trends verzeichnen. Die Verlagerung der palästinensischen Beschäftigung aus Israel in den lokalen Arbeitsmarkt erklärt dabei 57,8 Prozent der schrumpfenden Lohnlücke. Die dadurch veränderte Industriestruktur macht weitere 26,5 Prozent der Lohnkonvergenz aus. Die veränderte Beschäftigung zugunsten der Agrar- und Dienstleistungssektoren, welche sich beide durch einen hohen Anteil an Arbeiterinnen auszeichnen, führt zu einem Anstieg ihrer relativen Löhne.
This thesis consists of three essays that analyze the socio-economic consequences of conflict involvement. The first essay studies the effect of the Operation Iraqi Freedom and the following civil war on schooling outcomes of Iraqi children in mandatory schooling age. Several conflict measures which vary over geographic regions are proposed to capture different traits of conflict involvement. A special focus is laid on overcoming the potential endogeneity arising from non-random involvement into conflicts. I find decreased school enrollment of six-year-old boys and girls. Depending on the intensity of the conflict enrollment of girls is reduced by six to twelve percent. The detrimental effect measured for boys ranges between one and nine percent. The second essay examines wage differentials of high-skilled workers in relation to relaxing and tightening conflict intensity in the Israeli-Palestinian case. After the outbreak of the Second Intifada in 2000 the relative wage of skilled workers experiences a substantial increase. Regional employment shifts coming along with a change in the sector composition are responsible for a higher skill-intensive labor employment which translates into higher relative wages for skilled workers. The third essay explores the evolution of the gender wage gap in the Palestinian Territories. While the male-female wage differential increases till 1999, this trend is reversed with the outbreak of the Second Intifada. The catch-up of the female wages is mainly driven by relative employment shifts across workplaces and sectors. The shift of employment in Israel to the local labor market explains 57.8 percent of the closing wage gap between men and women. The related change in the industry structure explains another 26.5 percent of the wage convergence. I find relative gains of the service and agricultural sectors located in the Palestinian Territories, both of which rely on high shares of female labor input.

A critical evaluation of the national profile of energy supply and demand and the associated greenhouse gas (OHO) emissions in China has been conducted. The contribution of the transport sector in China, the road transport sector in particular, to China's overall energy demand and OHO emissions has been assessed and compared with values for other countries. Approaches for reducing energy demand and OHO emissions in the road transport sector worldwide have been reviewed. A detailed bottom-up model has been developed using 'LEAP' software, to estimate future energy demand and OHO emissions in China's road transport sector, incorporating China's recent efforts in alternative fuel promotion. Modelling approach and historical data used have been tested and verified to ensure reliability. Two scenarios have been designed to describe the future strategies relating to the development of China's road transport sector between 2005 and 2030. The 'Business as Usual' scenario is used as a baseline reference scenario, in which the government is assumed to do nothing to influence the long-term trends of road transport energy demand. The 'Best Case' scenario is considered to be the most optimized case where a series of available reduction measures are assumed to be implemented. Energy demand and OHO emissions in China's road transport sector up to 2030 are estimated in these two scenarios. The reduction potential and the relative contribution of each measure have been estimated. A 'life cycle assessment' model for the road transport sector has been developed. The life cycle energy demand and OHO emissions in China's road transport sector are estimated using the model. The reduction potential and the relative contribution of each measure have been re-assessed from a life cycle perspective. Potential impacts on global oil resources, availability and prices are discussed. The importance of life cycle assessment in evaluating the effects of different reduction measures is discussed. Policy implications are presented.

Water and energy are two of the most important resources for societal prosperity and economic development. It is clear that water and energy are intrinsically linked together and depend on one another in modern society. To date, however, efforts on water-energy nexus concentrate on quantifying the energy use in water cycle or the water use in energy production. From management perspective, water and energy are still managed separately. Little work has been done to investigate the impacts of the management options associated with one resource on the other and examine the integrated water and energy management options. Accordingly, the overall goal of this study is to examine the integrated management options for long-term regional water and energy resources management with consideration of their interactions through a system dynamics approach. System dynamics is based on systems thinking, which focuses on the system structure and offers a deeper insight into problems. It can link ecological, human, and social elements of water and energy systems in one modeling platform to investigate their interactions A four-step system dynamics modeling process was used in this study, which includes problem articulation, model formulation, model testing, and scenario design and simulation. Tampa Bay region was chosen as the study area, which is located on the west central coast of Florida and estuary along the Gulf of Mexico. This study considered a 100-year time scale with monthly interval, the first 30 years of which are used for model validation and the rest of which are for simulation. In order to investigate the interrelationship between water and energy systems, two sub-models (i.e., water sub-model and energy sub-model) were developed first. The water sub-model is composed of sectoral water demand (agriculture, industry, municipality, and energy sector), water supply (surface water, groundwater, reclaimed water, and water imports), and water quality and energy consumption associated with water supply. The result shows that surface water level increases by 1.32~1.39% when considering water quality and 1.10~1.30% considering both water quality and energy consumption. There is a slight decrease in groundwater storage (0.02~0.08%) compared with the reference behavior. The result also reveals that water conservation education is the most effective option to reduce the freshwater withdrawals (~17.3%), followed by rebates on indoor water-efficient appliances (~15.4%). Water loss control has a high potential to reduce freshwater withdrawals but it is not effective currently due to limited budget. The implementation of minimum surface water level reduces the surface water withdrawal by 26 MGD (million gallons per day) and requires alternative water supply sources to meet the water demands. The energy sub-model consists of sectoral energy demand (agriculture, industry, municipality, and water sector), energy supply (coal, natural gas, oil, and electricity), and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and water pollution associated with energy supply. The result finds that cost of fuels is the primary concern of determining the energy mix for power generation. The current electricity mix in the study area consists of 35.4% fuels from coal, 44.6% from natural gas, and 20% from oil. When considering the environmental impacts associated with energy supply, this percentage of coal reduces to 10.6%, and GHG emissions and water pollution can be reduced by 22% and 43% accordingly. The result also shows that energy price is most effect of reducing the demand (~16.3%), followed by energy conservation education (~10.6%). Rebates on household appliances are the least effective option (~3.6%) due to consumers' low willingness to pay. Combining the supply decision incorporating environmental impacts and the demand option of energy price increase, the reductions of GHG emissions and water pollution can reach 37% and 55%, respectively. The integrated model is developed by linking the water and energy models through the interactions between water and energy systems identified by the system archetypes. The result shows that water demand is reinforced by energy demand, and vice versa. This growth, however, is limited by water and energy availability. The result also reveals that some decisions to solve the problems of one resource result in the problems of the other resource. The increase of water price is one of these, which decreases the water demand by 24.3% but leads to increase of the energy demand by 1.53% due to the use of reclaimed water. Rebates on indoor water-efficient appliances are effective to reduce both water and energy demands largely due to the household energy use in water heating. In addition, this study demonstrates that integrated management options can improve the uses of water and energy, but decisions without considering each other may lead to more issues. For example, reclaimed water, a supply management option considering the energy, can increase the water balance index by 27.3% and the energy balance index by 0.14%; it can also reduce the water pollution by 11.76% and the GHG emissions by 13.16%. Seawater desalination, a supply management option without integrated consideration, intends to decrease the water shortage but eventually increases the water balance index by 29.7%. It also causes the increases in water pollution and GHG emissions by 89.79% and 14.53%, respectively. Similarly, solar energy presents the advantage in increasing the balance indices and reducing the environmental impacts. This study is an initial attempt to link water and energy systems to explore integrated management options. It is limited by the data availability, assumptions for model simplification, and lack of consideration of climate change. The recommendations for future study include (a) employing a more accurate projection or representation of precipitation, (b) testing the energy model with local data, (c) considering water and energy allocation between different users under shortages, (d) examining the environmental impacts associated with bay water withdrawal for power generation, (e) investigating the water and energy use under climate change, and (f) involving stakeholders early in model development and continuous participation in policy analysis.

AbstractThe fields of Big Data, Data Analytics and Data Science, which are key areas of current and future industrial demand, are quickly growing and evolving. Within Europe, there is a significant skills gap which needs to be addressed. A key activity is to ensure we meet future needs for skills and align the supply of educational offerings with the demands from industry and society. In this chapter, we detail one step in this direction, a programme to recognise Data Science skills. The chapter introduces the data skills challenge and the importance of formal and non-formal education. It positions data skills within a framework for skills and education, and it reviews key projects which have advanced the data skills agenda. It then introduces recognition frameworks for formal and non-formal Data Science training, and it details a methodology to achieve consensus between interested stakeholders in both academia and industry, and the platforms needed to be deployed for the proposal. Finally, we present a case study of the application of recognition frameworks within an online educational portal for students.

AbstractThe permanent gap between organ demand and supply has prompted use of organs from extended criteria donors (ECD). These carry a higher risk of disease transmission, with regard to infections and malignancies. We present herein the donor risk stratification algorithm implemented in Italy since 2004 for identification management of donor-to-recipient risk of disease transmission. The principles underlying this algorithm are: (1) the risk of disease transmission must be assessed against the potential benefit for the transplant recipient (i.e., no donor can be excluded from evaluation and their organs might benefit potential candidates); (2) patients awaiting organ transplantation must be informed that the risk of disease transmission is small but finite (standard risk); and (3) risk evaluation is an ongoing process based on information collected longitudinally after transplantation. Regional and national transplant authorities are committed to regular updating of guidelines based on clinical data derived from clinicians and on evaluation of posttransplant graft and patient survival rates.

A lack of good data on the U.S. artificial intelligence workforce limits the potential effectiveness of policies meant to increase and cultivate this cadre of talent. In this issue brief, the authors bridge that information gap with new analysis on the state of the U.S. AI workforce, along with insight into the ongoing concern over AI talent shortages. Their findings suggest some segments of the AI workforce are more likely than others to be experiencing a supply-demand gap.

This report identifies gaps between the supply and demand for skills, outlines strategies for career development, and proposes structural changes to investment teams to better leverage diverse talent.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

At present, most global GHG emissions – over 75% – are from fossil fuels. By necessity, reaching net zero emissions therefore requires dramatic reductions in fossil fuel demand and supply. Though fossil fuels have not been explicitly addressed by the UN Framework on Climate Change, a conversation has emerged about possible “supply-side” agreements on fossil fuels and climate change. For example, a number of countries, including Denmark, France, and New Zealand, have started taking measures to phase out their oil and gas production. In the United States, President Joe Biden has put a pause on new oil and gas leasing on federal lands and waters, while Vice President Kamala Harris has previously proposed a “first-ever global negotiation of the cooperative managed decline of fossil fuel production”. This paper aims to contribute to this emerging discussion. The authors present a simple analysis on where fossil fuel extraction has happened historically, and where it will continue to occur and expand if current economic trends continue without new policy interventions. By employing some simple scenario analysis, the authors also demonstrate how the phase-out of fossil fuel production is likely to be inequitable among countries, if not actively and internationally managed.

The effects of COVID-19 have been stronger in service-related subsectors, where supply and/or demand were constrained by lockdowns and social distancing measures. The losses in these subsectors have had direct impacts-through their weight in countries GDP-and indirect impacts through their effect on other sectors. In Latin America, effects on the three most affected sectors-wholesale, retail, and hospitality services; construction; and manufacturing-add up to a 4.9 percent hit to economy-wide labor productivity through direct and indirect channels. Large productivity improvements in infrastructure may be needed to fully compensate for the negative productivity losses traceable to COVID-19.

The effects of COVID-19 have been stronger in service-related subsectors, where supply and/or demand were constrained by lockdowns and social distancing measures. The losses in these subsectors have had direct impacts-through their weight in countries GDP-and indirect impacts through their effect on other sectors. In Latin America, effects on the three most affected sectors-wholesale, retail, and hospitality services; construction; and manufacturing-add up to a 4.9 percent hit to economy-wide labor productivity through direct and indirect channels. Large productivity improvements in infrastructure may be needed to fully compensate for the negative productivity losses traceable to COVID-19.

Decarbonization and energy security in Europe are two faces of the same coin. They are both related to the large dependency of the European Union economy on fossil fuels, which today represent around 70% of the total supply of energy. The bulk of these energy resources are imported, with Russia being the largest supplier, accounting for 40% of natural gas and 27% of oil imports. However, fossil fuels are also the primary root cause of greenhouse gas emissions, and the European Union is committed to reduce those by 55% by 2030 (versus 1990). This report is based on the landmark research from the Joint Research Center of the European Commission, the “Integrated Database of the European Energy Sector”, which for the first time mapped actual energy uses for each country within the European Union, across 17 sectors of activity, with data granularity at the level of each process step (or end-use) of each of these sectors. Our approach here has been to systematically review these process steps (or end-uses) and qualify the extent to which they could be electrified, effectively removing the demand for fossil fuels as a result. We have focused only on those process steps where technology was already widely available and for which we evaluated the switch to be relatively easy (or attractive). In other words, we estimated the impact of rapid electrification of “easy to abate” activities. The conclusion of this evaluation is that the share of electricity demand in the final energy mix could jump from around 20% today to 50%, which would drive a reduction in emissions at end-use of around 1,300 MtCO2 /y, as well as a drop in natural gas and oil supply of around 50%. As a result of such transformation, electricity demand would nearly double, with the bulk of that growth materializing in the building sector. Short-term, the challenge of addressing climate targets while providing for energy security is thus intimately connected to buildings. While such transition would certainly require major infrastructure upgrades, which may prove a roadblock to rapid deployment, we find that the combination of energy efficiency measures (notably digital) and distributed generation penetration (rooftop solar) could significantly tame the issue, and hence help accelerate the move away from fossil fuels, with energy spend savings as high as 80% across some building types; a major driver of change. Beyond this, further potential exists for electrification. Other measures on the demand-side will include deeper renovations of the industrial stock (notably in the automotive, machinery, paper, and petrochemical industries for which our current assessment may be underestimated) and further electrification of mobility (trucks). The transition of the power system away from coal (and ultimately natural gas) will then also play a key role, followed ultimately by feedstocks substitution in industry. Some of these transitions are already on the way and will likely bring further improvements. The key message, however, is that a significant opportunity revolves around buildings to both quickly decarbonize and reduce energy dependencies in Europe. Rapid transformation of the energy system may be more feasible than we think. We notably estimate that, by 2030, an ambitious and focused effort could help displace 15% to 25% of natural gas and oil supply and reduce emissions by around 500 MtCO2 /y (note that these savings would come on top of additional measures regarding energy efficiency and flexibility, which are not the object of this study). For this to happen, approximately 100 million buildings will need renovating, and a similar number of electric vehicles would need to hit the road.