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Добірка наукової літератури з теми "Decision under risk"

Автор: Grafiati

Опубліковано: 11 березня 2023

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Статті в журналах з теми "Decision under risk"

Mishra, Sandeep. "Decision-Making Under Risk." Personality and Social Psychology Review 18, no. 3 (April 25, 2014): 280–307. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1088868314530517.

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De Sousa, José, Anne-Célia Disdier, and Carl Gaigné. "Export decision under risk." European Economic Review 121 (January 2020): 103342. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2019.103342.

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Hewig, Johannes, Thomas Straube, Ralf H. Trippe, Nora Kretschmer, Holger Hecht, Michael G. H. Coles, and Wolfgang H. R. Miltner. "Decision-making under Risk: An fMRI Study." Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience 21, no. 8 (August 2009): 1642–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/jocn.2009.21112.

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Recent research has focused on decision-making under risk and its neural bases. Two kinds of bad decisions under risk may be defined: too risky decisions and too cautious decisions. Here we show that suboptimal decisions of both kinds lead to increased activity in the anterior cingulate cortex in a Blackjack gambling task. Moreover, this increased activity is related to the avoidance of the negatively evaluated decision under risk. These findings complement other results suggesting an important role of the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex in reward-based decision-making and conflict resolution.

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Lee-Stronach, Chad. "Moral priorities under risk." Canadian Journal of Philosophy 48, no. 6 (December 2018): 793–811. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00455091.2017.1415104.

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AbstractMany moral theories are committed to the idea that some kinds of moral considerations should be respected, whatever the cost to ‘lesser’ types of considerations. A person's life, for instance, should not be sacrificed for the trivial pleasures of others, no matter how many would benefit. However, according to the decision-theoretic critique of lexical priority theories, accepting lexical priorities inevitably leads us to make unacceptable decisions in risky situations. It seems that to operate in a risky world, we must reject lexical priorities altogether. This paper argues that lexical priority theories can, in fact, offer satisfactory guidance in risky situations. It does so by equipping lexical priority theories with overlooked resources from decision theory.

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Venezian, Emilio, and Jeroen Suijs. "Cooperative Decision Making under Risk." Journal of Risk and Insurance 68, no. 3 (September 2001): 536. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2678127.

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Adam, Robert, Paul M. Bays, and Masud Husain. "Rapid decision-making under risk." Cognitive Neuroscience 3, no. 1 (October 12, 2011): 52–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17588928.2011.613988.

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He, Ying, and Rui-Hua Huang. "Risk attributes theory: Decision making under risk." European Journal of Operational Research 186, no. 1 (April 2008): 243–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2007.01.012.

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Grechuk, Bogdan, and Michael Zabarankin. "Risk averse decision making under catastrophic risk." European Journal of Operational Research 239, no. 1 (November 2014): 166–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2014.04.042.

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Lu, Jingyi, Xuesong Shang, and Bingjie Li. "Self–Other Differences in Decision-Making Under Risk." Experimental Psychology 65, no. 4 (July 2018): 226–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1027/1618-3169/a000404.

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Abstract. Decisions made for others reflect not only decision-makers’ cognitive and emotional states but also decision-makers’ interpersonal concerns. People who make choices for others will potentially be blamed for unappealing outcomes by others. Therefore, we hypothesize that individuals will seek sure gains (which increase individuals’ responsibility for desirable outcomes) and avoid sure losses (which decrease individuals’ responsibility for undesirable outcomes) when making risky decisions for others more than when making such decisions for themselves. The results of two studies show that making decisions for others (vs. oneself) promotes risk-averse choices over gains. This effect may be driven by the perceived responsibility associated with different options. When both options exhibit variance in outcomes, such self–other difference disappears. However, no self–other difference over losses was observed. Taken together, our research highlights interpersonal concerns in making decisions for others, as well as the behavioral consequences of these concerns in decisions under risk.

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Backus, G. B. C., V. R. Eidman, and A. A. Dijkhuizen. "Farm decision making under risk and uncertainty." Netherlands Journal of Agricultural Science 45, no. 2 (July 1, 1997): 307–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.18174/njas.v45i2.520.

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Relevant portions of the risk literature are reviewed, relating them to observed behaviour in farm decision-making. Relevant topics for applied agricultural risk research are proposed. The concept of decision making under risk and uncertainty is discussed by reviewing the theory of Subjective Expected Utility and its limitations. Subjective Expected Utility theory is the major framework for thinking systematically through complex issues of decision. Limitations of Subjective Expected Utility theory were that its application to unique decisions is doubtful, that it does not contribute to difficulties in determining the available decision alternatives, and that it is cast in a timeless setting, making the theoretic framework to a very limited extent helpful to solve real world decision problems. Most empirical studies indicate that farmers are risk neutral to slightly risk averse. It is doubtful whether decision makers could be classified according to their risk preferences. A presented overview of applied risk responses reveals much attention for diversification of the enterprise and of production practices, maintaining reserves, and farm expansion. Research reports on observed problems in farm decision making behaviour are lacking. Proposed topics for agricultural risk research include the assessment of the need for a strategic change, the creation of databases to determine both the (co)variances of input and output prices, the effectiveness of various kinds of decision support for different decision problems, and methods for applied scenario analysis to deal with long-run risk.

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Дисертації з теми "Decision under risk"

Freeman, David. "Essays on decision-making under risk." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/45361.

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Chapter 2 of this thesis studies the testable content of models of expectations-based reference-dependence. The main results of this chapter characterize a model based on Kőszegi and Rabin's (2006) preferred personal equilibrium. This model is shown to be behaviourally equivalent to a version of the shortlisting model of Manzini and Mariotti (2007) in environments without risk. Environments with risk motivate novel axioms that are conceptually consistent with expectations-based reference-dependence. These axioms are shown to behaviourally characterize a restricted version of the preferred personal equilibrium model of decision-making. Additional results characterize the choice behaviour of Kőszegi and Rabin's (2006, 2007) personal equilibrium and choice-acclimating personal equilibrium concepts. In the presence of background risk and under the Reduction of Compound Lotteries axiom, non-expected utility preferences cannot capture descriptively reasonable risk aversion over small stakes without producing implausible risk aversion over large stakes (Safra and Segal 2008). Motivated by experimental evidence, Chapter 3 assumes that compound lotteries are evaluated recursively. The main results of this chapter show that non-expected utility theories generate 'as-if' narrow bracketing over small-stakes gambles despite defining utility over final wealth, and can be consistent with empirically reasonable risk aversion over both small and large stakes. Chapter 4 uses list elicitation with varying probabilities to experimentally study choices between lotteries for a population of online workers. We document that list elicitation significantly diminishes risk aversion compared to binary choice elicitation. We show that this observation is consistent with a decision maker who has non-expected utility preferences, but when list elicitation is employed, reduces the compound lottery induced by her choices and the external randomization device used to determine payment. As a result, list elicitation distorts the inferences that can be drawn about non-expected utility preferences.

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Zhou, Wenting. "Experiments on decision-making under risk." Thesis, University of York, 2015. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/9044/.

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This thesis consists of three chapters. They are on three different topics, but they are related in the sense that they are concerned with decision-making under risk or uncertainty. In Chapter 1, we use an analogy of walking through fog to explain the problem under study. Fog has the property that vision becomes less and less clear the further ahead that you try to look, and after a certain distance you simply cannot see anything. In the experiment, the subject’s aim is to travel across the foggy and hilly terrain with minimum energy expenditure. This problem, although set in a non-economic context, obviously has relevance to many economic problems. Chapter 2 is about elicitation methods for discovering subjects’ risk preferences. The concern of the experiment is to compare four different methods used for eliciting the level of risk aversion. We carried out an experiment in four parts, corresponding to the four different methods and our methodology involves fitting four different preference functionals. Our results show that the inferred level of risk aversion is more sensitive to the elicitation method than to the assumed-true preference functional. Experimenters should worry most about context. Chapter 3 is about the interrelationship of decisions which come in a series. The validity of Random Lottery Incentive mechanism has been investigated in two main ways: first, just two decision problems, and second, many problems. This chapter combines and extends these two ways by investigating a cognitively less-demanding hypothesis than that all previous decisions are taken into account, but allows for an indirect effect of previous decisions on current ones. Reassuringly we find little effect and hence our results complement the previous evidence indicating that the Random Lottery Incentive mechanism is robust and can safely be used.

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Nieboer, Jeroen. "Essays on group decision making under risk." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2013. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/13385/.

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Economic theory traditionally explains choice under risk through the preferences of the individual, yet many important economic decisions are made by groups. To increase our understanding of the implications of group decisions and enrich our theories accordingly, we need empirical and experimental evidence on groups. Although economists have conducted controlled laboratory experiments on individual choice for many decades, only recently have researchers begun to use the experimental method to study group decisions under risk. This thesis contributes to the study of group decision making under risk by providing a cross-disciplinary review of the growing literature on this topic, followed by three experiments on risk-taking by groups. The first experiment investigates the role of communication and peer effects, the second experiment investigates group composition, and the final experiment focuses on information sharing in groups.

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Symmonds, M. "The neurobiology of decision making under risk." Thesis, University College London (University of London), 2011. http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1336527/.

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Risk is a highly salient psychological decision variable, and sensitivity to risk is an evolutionarily ancient attribute. In this thesis I address the neurobiological foundation of risk assessment, and show that behaviour is driven by an underlying distributed neural representation of different elements of risk in the brain. In particular, I show using fMRI (in Chapter 4) and MEG (in Chapter 8) that variance (dispersion) and skewness (asymmetry) of gambles evokes anatomically separable neural responses in a parietal, prefrontal and insula cortical network. I discuss possible theoretical neurobiological mechanisms by which preferences could be imbued to choice, and show that subjective tastes for risk, in terms of behavioural sensitivity to each of these risk dimensions, influences the encoding of risk and subsequent anticipatory responses. In Chapter 5, I show that a representation of prospective outcomes several trials into the future is supported by a dissociated encoding of the statistical information of future states in medial prefrontal cortex; furthermore that this encoding is contingent upon overarching goals or constraints. In Chapter 6, I demonstrate that economic choice is highly susceptible to exogenous biological influences, namely the effect of metabolic state, whilst in Chapter 7 I provide evidence that the encoding of risk is not affected by dopaminergic disruption, suggesting that dopamine might mediate effects on risk-taking via its role in reward feedback representation. In summary, the studies in this thesis elaborate the neural mechanisms underlying how humans make both single-shot and sequential decisions under risk, central elements in decision-making scenarios ranging from foraging to financial investment. This demonstrates that phylogenetically ancient circuitry subserving valuation and reward decompose choice into their salient statistical features, enabling the sophisticated representation of the future and its alternatives.

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Hunt, Laurence T. "Modelling human decision under risk and uncertainty." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2011. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:244ce799-7397-4698-8dac-c8ca5d0b3e28.

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Humans are unique in their ability to flexibly and rapidly adapt their behaviour and select courses of action that lead to future reward. Several ‘component processes’ must be implemented by the human brain in order to facilitate this behaviour. This thesis examines two such components; (i) the neural substrates supporting action selection during value- guided choice using magnetoencephalography (MEG), and (ii) learning the value of environmental stimuli and other people’s actions using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). In both situations, it is helpful to formally model the underlying component process, as this generates predictions of trial-to-trial variability in the signal from a brain region involved in its implementation. In the case of value-guided action selection, a biophysically realistic implementation of a drift diffusion model is used. Using this model, it is predicted that there are specific times and frequency bands at which correlates of value are seen. Firstly, there are correlates of the overall value of the two presented options, and secondly the difference in value between the options. Both correlates should be observed in the local field potential, which is closely related to the signal measured using MEG. Importantly, the content of these predictions is quite distinct from the function of the model circuit, which is to transform inputs relating to the value of each option into a categorical decision. In the case of social learning, the same reinforcement learning model is used to track both the value of two stimuli that the subject can choose between, and the advice of a confederate who is playing alongside them. As the confederate advice is actually delivered by a computer, it is possible to keep prediction error and learning rate terms for stimuli and advice orthogonal to one another, and so look for neural correlates of both social and non-social learning in the same fMRI data. Correlates of intentional inference are found in a network of brain regions previously implicated in social cognition, notably the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex, the right temporoparietal junction, and the anterior cingulate gyrus.

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Tarazona-Gomez, Marcela. "Decision-Making under Risk : Three Experimental Essays." Paris, EHESS, 2007. http://www.theses.fr/2007EHES0123.

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Utilisant la méthodologie expérimentale en laboratoire, cette thèse contribue au débat sur l'attitude des individus face au risque dans trois domaines : le premier essai présente les résultats d'une expérience destinée à éliciter la prudence et l'aversion au risque. Les réponses révèlent qu'une majorité des sujets sont prudents, et qu'une grande proportion sont à la fois averses au risque et prudents, sans que l'aversion au risque et le comportement de prudence soient corrélés. Le second essai analyse l'impact du risque sur la décision de financement d'un bien public. En théorie, les individus averses au risque devraient réduire leurs contributions en cas d'incertitude. Cette prédiction est vérifiée pour les économistes, mais pas pour les non économistes, qui au contraire augmentent leurs contributions. Dans le dernier essai, on analyse les préférences sociales, tant sur le risque individuel que sur le bien-être social. Nous trouvons que les attitudes sociales face au risque sont similaires aux attitudes individuelles
Using laboratory experiments as a tool, this dissertation contributes to the debate of decision making under risk three domains : The first essay presents the results of an experiment that elicits prudence and risk aversion. We find that the majority of subjects are prudent and that a big proportion is simultaneously prudent and risk averse, even if we find no correlation between prudence and risk aversion. The second essay investigates the effect of uncertainty on the decision to finance a public good. Our theoretical prediction is that risk adverse individuals will reduce their contributions to the production of a public good when facing more uncertainty. Results reveal that this prediction is confirmed but only for economists, and that non economists rather increase their contributions. In the last essay we elicit individual preferences over social risk. We analyze if these preferences are correlated with individual preferences over individual risk and over the well-being of others. We find that social risk attitudes closely approximate individual risk attitudes

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Liu, Yaxin. "Decision-Theoretic Planning under Risk-Sensitive Planning Objectives." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/6959.

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Risk attitudes are important for human decision making, especially in scenarios where huge wins or losses are possible, as exemplified by planetary rover navigation, oilspill response, and business applications. Decision-theoretic planners therefore need to take risk aspects into account to serve their users better. However, most existing decision-theoretic planners use simplistic planning objectives that are risk-neutral. The thesis research is the first comprehensive study of how to incorporate risk attitudes into decision-theoretic planners and solve large-scale planning problems represented as Markov decision process models. The thesis consists of three parts. The first part of the thesis work studies risk-sensitive planning in case where exponential utility functions are used to model risk attitudes. I show that existing decision-theoretic planners can be transformed to take risk attitudes into account. Moreover, different versions of the transformation are needed if the transition probabilities are implicitly given, namely, temporally extended probabilities and probabilities given in a factored form. The second part of the thesis work studies risk-sensitive planning in case where general nonlinear utility functions are used to model risk attitudes. I show that a state-augmentation approach can be used to reduce a risk-sensitive planning problem to a risk-neutral planning problem with an augmented state space. I further use a functional interpretation of value functions and approximation methods to solve the planning problems efficiently with value iteration. I also show an exact method for solving risk-sensitive planning problems where one-switch utility functions are used to model risk attitudes. The third part of the thesis work studies risk sensitive planning in case where arbitrary rewards are used. I propose a spectrum of conditions that can be used to constrain the utility function and the planning problem so that the optimal expected utilities exist and are finite. I prove that the existence and finiteness properties hold for stationary plans, where the action to perform in each state does not change over time, under different sets of conditions.

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Edgar, John. "A system for qualitative decision making under risk." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape7/PQDD_0028/MQ51337.pdf.

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Wengström, Erik. "Communication in games and decision making under risk /." Lund: Univ., Dep. of Economics, 2007. http://www.gbv.de/dms/zbw/561390584.pdf.

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Davidson, Erick. "Market and professional decision-making under risk and uncertainty." Columbus, Ohio : Ohio State University, 2007. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=osu1196261774.

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Книги з теми "Decision under risk"

Suijs, Jeroen. Cooperative Decision-Making Under Risk. Boston, MA: Springer US, 2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-4637-5.

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Suijs, Jeroen. Cooperative decision-making under risk. Boston: Kluwer Academic, 2000.

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Information-gap decision theory: Decisions under severe uncertainty. San Diego, Calif: Academic Press, 2001.

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Geweke, John, ed. Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1992. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-2838-4.

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1947-, Mosler Karl C., and Scarsini M, eds. Stochastic orders and decision under risk. Hayward, Calif: Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 1991.

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1952-, Ben-Haim Yakov, ed. Info-gap decision theory: Decisions under severe uncertainty. 2nd ed. Oxford: Academic, 2006.

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Christian, Gollier, and Schlesinger Harris, eds. Economic and financial decisions under risk. Princeton, N.J: Princeton University Press, 2005.

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Acting under uncertainty: Multidisciplinary conceptions. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1990.

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Abdellaoui, Mohammed, and John D. Hey, eds. Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-68437-4.

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Principles of risk analysis: Decision making under uncertainty. Boca Raton, FL: Taylor & Francis, 2011.

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Частини книг з теми "Decision under risk"

Rapoport, Anatol. "Decisions under Risk." In Decision Theory and Decision Behaviour, 68–96. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-7840-0_5.

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Fox, Craig R., Carsten Erner, and Daniel J. Walters. "Decision Under Risk." In The Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, 41–88. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118468333.ch2.

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Biswas, Tapan. "Risk Aversion." In Decision-Making under Uncertainty, 19–29. London: Macmillan Education UK, 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-25817-8_2.

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Rapoport, Anatol. "Decisions under Uncertainty and Risk." In Decision Theory and Decision Behaviour, 50–81. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230377769_4.

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Schmidt, Ruth A., and Helen Wright. "Decision-making Under Risk." In Financial Aspects of Marketing, 212–17. London: Macmillan Education UK, 1996. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-25020-2_27.

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Lim, HanNa. "Decision-Making under Risk." In Client Psychology, 43–64. Hoboken, NJ, USA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781119440895.ch5.

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Peschard, Isabelle, Yann Benétreau-Dupin, and Christopher Wessels. "Decision-making under risk." In Philosophy and Science of Risk, 36–84. London: Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9780429023521-3.

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Yoe, Charles. "Decision Making Under Uncertainty." In Principles of Risk Analysis, 651–97. Second edition. | Boca Raton : Taylor and Francis, CRC Press, 2019.: CRC Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/9780429021121-19.

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Yoe, Charles. "Decision making under uncertainty." In Primer on Risk Analysis, 241–94. Second edition. | Boca Raton : Taylor & Francis, CRC Press, 2019.: CRC Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/9780429021145-7.

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Felder, Stefan, and Thomas Mayrhofer. "Treatment Decisions Under Comorbidity Risk." In Medical Decision Making, 105–21. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-53432-8_6.

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Тези доповідей конференцій з теми "Decision under risk"

Chen, Jun, Long Chen, Chen Qian, and Kefan Xie. "Decision Making in Crowdfunding Under Risk Analysis." In Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences. Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.24251/hicss.2018.182.

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Harris, A. W. "Insurgency Decision-making Under Conditions of Risk." In 2nd Annual International Conference on Political Science, Sociology and International Relations. Global Science Technology Forum, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.5176/2251-2403_pssir12.19.

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Zhang, Yu, Michael Pellon, and Phillip Coleman. "Decision Under Risk in Multi-Agent Systems." In 2007 IEEE International Conference on System of Systems Engineering. IEEE, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/sysose.2007.4304323.

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Sgurev, Vasil, and Stanislav Drangajov. "Decision making in intelligent resource networks under risk." In 2016 IEEE 8th International Conference on Intelligent Systems (IS). IEEE, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/is.2016.7737432.

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Höft, Nikolas, Rong Guo, Vaios Laschos, Sein Jeung, Dirk Ostwald, and Klaus Obermayer. "Risk Sensitivity under Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes." In 2019 Conference on Cognitive Computational Neuroscience. Brentwood, Tennessee, USA: Cognitive Computational Neuroscience, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.32470/ccn.2019.1160-0.

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Stern, Robert. "Conformance Decision Rules to Support ISO/IEC CD2 17025 Under Revision." In NCSL International Workshop & Symposium. NCSL International, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.51843/wsproceedings.2016.32.

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The current draft of ISO/IEC CD 17025 contains a clause to document the decision rule for conformity along with the risk and statistical assumptions in the test method or procedure (7.1.1d). So how shall we do this? A common strategy for managing measurement decision risk is to choose a guard-band that results in a desired false-accept risk given a tolerance limit, the calibration process uncertainty, and the a priori probability. JCGM 106:2012 provides guidance for the implementation of prior knowledge in conformance decisions, however a good estimate of the a priori probability may be difficult to obtain. Historical device population information for estimating a priori probability may not be readily available such as "testing" applications where the device is a prototype. This paper presents the false-accept risk and corresponding false-reject risk for four decision rules. We provide simple equations to limit risk to pre-determined amounts. Several case studies illustrate when to use "Specific" or "Global" risk. When "Global" risk is appropriate, the decision rules can be applied with limited knowledge of a priori probability.

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Li, Jiawei, Graham Kendall, Simon Pollard, Emma Soane, Gareth Davies, and Ruibin Bai. "A decision support approach for group decision making under risk and uncertainty." In 2010 International Conference on Logistics Systems and Intelligent Management (ICLSIM). IEEE, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/iclsim.2010.5461315.

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Zhang, Qin, and Xifan Wang. "Customer electricity purchasing risk decision under real-time pricing." In 2009 IEEE/PES Power Systems Conference and Exposition (PSCE). IEEE, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/psce.2009.4839934.

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Chen, Xinjia, Adam Jannik, and Rafiqul Islam. "Adaptive risk minimization for control and decision under uncertainty." In Unmanned Systems Technology XXII, edited by Charles M. Shoemaker, Paul L. Muench, and Hoa G. Nguyen. SPIE, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1117/12.2557628.

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Mancuso, A., M. Compare, A. Salo, and E. Zio. "Risk-informed decision making under incomplete information: Portfolio decision analysis and credal networks." In The 2nd International Conference on Engineering Sciences and Technologies. CRC Press Taylor & Francis Group 6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300 Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742: CRC Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/9781315210469-97.

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Звіти організацій з теми "Decision under risk"

Lempert, Robert J., Michelle Miro, and Diogo Prosdocimi. A DMDU Guidebook for Transportation Planning Under a Changing Climate. Edited by Benoit Lefevre and Ernesto Monter Flores. Inter-American Development Bank, February 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003042.

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The effects of climate-related natural hazards pose a significant threat to sustainable development in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region and in particular its transportation sector. Risk Management provides an appropriate framework for assessing and mitigating the impacts of climate change and other climate-related natural hazards on transportation systems and choosing actions to enhance their resilience. However, analysts and policymakers involved in transportation planning, policy, and investment face significant challenges in managing the risks triggered by the effects of climate change. Climate change impacts the lifespan of roads, airports, and railroads as they have time horizons that surpass 40 years, thus making it harder (if not impossible) to forecast with confidence all relevant future events that will affect such infrastructure. In addition, the climate has already changed, so the return frequency of storms, for example, and other extreme events may now be different than suggested by the historical record in ways that are not always currently well understood. Implementing Risk Management under conditions of such uncertainty can prove difficult. Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) enables Risk Management under conditions of Deep Uncertainty, that is when risks cannot confidently be quantified. This guidebook is aligned with the Disaster and Climate Change Risk Assessment Methodology for IDB projects (IDB 2018) and introduces and provides guidance on applying methods for Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) to transportation planning. It presents the methodological steps that are necessary for the implementation of DMDU methodologies and reviews several such methods, including scenario planning, Adaptive Pathways, and robust decision making (RDM). This review is geared towards supporting the incorporation of DMDU methods into IDBs transportation sector funding and planning processes.

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Webster, Mort D. RECOVERY ACT - Methods for Decision under Technological Change Uncertainty and Risk Assessment for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), November 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1227193.

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Webster, Mort David. RECOVERY ACT - Methods for Decision under Technological Change Uncertainty and Risk Assessment for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), March 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1172111.

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Hobbs, T. E., J. M. Journeay, A. S. Rao, L. Martins, P. LeSueur, M. Kolaj, M. Simionato, et al. Scientific basis of Canada's first public national seismic risk model. Natural Resources Canada/CMSS/Information Management, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4095/330927.

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Natural Resources Canada, in partnership with the Global Earthquake Model Foundation, has prepared a public Canadian Seismic Risk Model to support disaster risk reduction efforts across industry and all levels of government, and to aid in Canada's adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. Developing this model has involved the creation of a national exposure inventory, Canadian specific fragility and vulnerability curves, and adjustment of the Canadian Seismic Hazard Model which forms the basis for the seismic provisions of the National Building Code of Canada. Using the Global Earthquake Model Foundation's OpenQuake Engine (OQ), risk modelling is completed using both deterministic and probabilistic risk calculations, under baseline and simulated retrofit conditions. Output results are available in all settled regions of Canada, at the scale of a neighbourhood or smaller. We report on expected shaking damage to buildings, financial losses, fatalities, and other impacts such as housing disruption and the generation of debris. This paper documents the technical details of the modelling approach including a description of novel datasets in use, as well as preliminary results for a magnitude 9.0 earthquake on the Cascadia megathrust and nation-wide 500 year expected probabilistic losses. These kinds of results, such as earthquake scenario impacts, loss exceedance curves, and annual average losses, provide a quantitative base of evidence for decision making at local, regional, and national levels.

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Sett, Dominic, Florian Waldschmidt, Alvaro Rojas-Ferreira, Saut Sagala, Teresa Arce Mojica, Preeti Koirala, Patrick Sanady, et al. Climate and disaster risk analytics tool for adaptive social protection. United Nations University - Institute for Environment and Human Security, March 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.53324/wnsg2302.

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Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) as discussed in this report is an approach to enhance the well-being of communities at risk. As an integrated approach, ASP builds on the interface of Disaster Risk Management (DRM), Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Social Protection (SP) to address interconnected risks by building resilience, thereby overcoming the shortcomings of traditionally sectoral approaches. The design of meaningful ASP measures needs to be informed by specific information on risk, risk drivers and impacts on communities at risk. In contrast, a limited understanding of risk and its drivers can potentially lead to maladaptation practices. Therefore, multidimensional risk assessments are vital for the successful implementation of ASP. Although many sectoral tools to assess risks exist, available integrated risk assessment methods across sectors are still inadequate in the context of ASP, presenting an important research and implementation gap. ASP is now gaining international momentum, making the timely development of a comprehensive risk analytics tool even more important, including in Indonesia, where nationwide implementation of ASP is currently under way. OBJECTIVE: To address this gap, this study explores the feasibility of a climate and disaster risk analytics tool for ASP (CADRAT-ASP), combining sectoral risk assessment in the context of ASP with a more comprehensive risk analytics approach. Risk analytics improve the understanding of risks by locating and quantifying the potential impacts of disasters. For example, the Economics of Climate Adaptation (ECA) framework quantifies probable current and expected future impacts of extreme events and determines the monetary cost and benefits of specific risk management and adaptation measures. Using the ECA framework, this report examines the viability and practicality of applying a quantitative risk analytics approach for non-financial and non-tangible assets that were identified as central to ASP. This quantitative approach helps to identify cost-effective interventions to support risk-informed decision making for ASP. Therefore, we used Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia, as a case study, to identify potential entry points and examples for the further development and application of such an approach. METHODS & RESULTS: The report presents an analysis of central risks and related impacts on communities in the context of ASP. In addition, central social protection dimensions (SPD) necessary for the successful implementation of ASP and respective data needs from a theoretical perspective are identified. The application of the quantitative ECA framework is tested for tropical storms in the context of ASP, providing an operational perspective on technical feasibility. Finally, recommendations on further research for the potential application of a suitable ASP risk analytics tool in Indonesia are proposed. Results show that the ECA framework and its quantitative modelling platform CLIMADA successfully quantified the impact of tropical storms on four SPDs. These SPDs (income, access to health, access to education and mobility) were selected based on the results from the Hazard, Exposure and Vulnerability Assessment (HEVA) conducted to support the development of an ASP roadmap for the Republic of Indonesia (UNU-EHS 2022, forthcoming). The SPDs were modelled using remote sensing, gridded data and available global indices. The results illustrate the value of the outcome to inform decision making and a better allocation of resources to deliver ASP to the case study area. RECOMMENDATIONS: This report highlights strong potential for the application of the ECA framework in the ASP context. The impact of extreme weather events on four social protection dimensions, ranging from access to health care and income to education and mobility, were successfully quantified. In addition, further developments of CADRAT-ASP can be envisaged to improve modelling results and uptake of this tool in ASP implementation. Recommendations are provided for four central themes: mainstreaming the CADRAT approach into ASP, data and information needs for the application of CADRAT-ASP, methodological advancements of the ECA framework to support ASP and use of CADRAT-ASP for improved resilience-building. Specific recommendations are given, including the integration of additional hazards, such as flood, drought or heatwaves, for a more comprehensive outlook on potential risks. This would provide a broader overview and allow for multi-hazard risk planning. In addition, high-resolution local data and stakeholder involvement can increase both ownership and the relevance of SPDs. Further recommendations include the development of a database and the inclusion of climate and socioeconomic scenarios in analyses.

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Schultz, James V. A Framework for Military Decision Making under Risks. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, August 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada330025.

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Walz, Yvonne, Florence Nick, Oscar Higuera Roa, Udo Nehren, and Zita Sebesvari. Coherence and Alignment among Sustainable Land Management, Ecosystem-based Adaptation, Ecosystem-based Disaster Risk Reduction and Nature-based Solutions. United Nations University - Institute for Environment and Human Security, November 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.53324/mwgp9896.

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Approaches integrating environmental management practices have been gaining importance in recent years. Sustainable Land Management (SLM), Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA), Ecosystem-based disaster Risk Reduction (Eco-DRR) and Nature-based Solutions (NbS) are widely applied approaches that tackle certain drivers of challenges such as food insecurity, water scarcity, decline in biodiversity and threats to livelihoods, while also considering both human well-being and ecosystem functions and services. Better understanding the similarities, differences and relationships between these approaches helps to improve efficiency in implementation and leverage synergies. By shedding more light on where these approaches align, investments in land-based solutions in response to different types of environmental challenges can be more effectively designed to achieve multiple targets. In response to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) decision 19/COP.14 paragraph 4, the main objective of this report is to understand and elaborate upon the characteristics of SLM, EbA, Eco-DRR and NbS. The report begins with an overview of the historical backgrounds and origins of SLM, EbA, Eco-DRR and NbS. Despite differences in their specific goals and targeted benefits, all approaches aim for the support of biodiversity, land-based ecosystems and ecosystem services and functions, and employ measures to conserve, restore and sustainably use land to support ecosystem services and functions, including SLM technologies. Furthermore, irrespective of their different goals, the projects developed under any approach can generate comparable co-benefits, especially due to their support of biodiversity. The capacity for all these approaches to deliver multiple co-benefits means that projects of each approach can directly contribute to implementing the specific goals of the other approaches as well. Thus, multiple global and national targets, frameworks, strategies and conventions which call for the implementation of one or more of these approaches, can benefit from this report by avoiding duplication and reducing the overall investments necessary to achieve the set targets and goals. This is critical for achieving the ambitious Agenda 2030, including voluntary land degradation neutrality (LDN) targets and climate action under the Paris Agreement. It will also be the case for the post-2020 global biodiversity framework currently under development. The added value that will come from optimizing the links among these approaches extends from national policymakers to the practitioners of SLM, EbA and Eco-DRR projects, which all share the ultimate goal of sustainable development. To capture the coherence and alignment among these approaches, their similarities and differences have been summarized in a conceptual framework. The framework has been designed to help practitioners understand the specific goals of each approach, and to link these to the relevant global and national targets, frameworks, strategies and conventions, which can support monitoring and evaluation as well as reporting processes. The synergies among these approaches are further illustrated based on three case studies in order to demonstrate opportunities for leveraging multiple co-benefits and targets at implementation level irrespective of the different objectives under each. The results of this assessment demonstrate that activities under one approach can be beneficial to achieve the specific goals of other approaches with little additional effort. It is essential for policymakers, project developers and practitioners to recognize that. This is key to the achievement of sustainable development.

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Ji, Yi, Bob McCullouch, and Zhi Zhou. Evaluation of Anti-Icing/De-Icing Products Under Controlled Environmental Conditions. Purdue University, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.5703/1288284317253.

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Snow and ice removal are important tasks during the winter season and large amounts of anti-icing and de-icing chemicals are used and there is a critical need to review and synthesize information from the literature to compare and contrast anti-icing and de-icing chemicals to understand their environmental impact and support decision making. The effectiveness, costs, and environmental impact of commonly used and alternative anti-icing and de-icing chemicals were reviewed in this study. Application of anti-icing and de-icing chemicals may increase ion concentrations in soils and change nitrogen cycle, soil pH, and trace metal concentrations, affect surface water and groundwater, and increase public health risks. Life cycle assessment was conducted to quantitively evaluate environmental impact of selected anti-icing and de-icing chemicals. A decision support tool on environmental impact was developed to evaluate environmental impact of anti-icing and de-icing chemicals in ten different environmental impact categories. The results showed the environmental life cycle assessment tool developed in this study can be used to compare multiple environment impacts to support decision making for winter operation chemicals.

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Perdigão, Rui A. P., and Julia Hall. Spatiotemporal Causality and Predictability Beyond Recurrence Collapse in Complex Coevolutionary Systems. Meteoceanics, November 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.46337/201111.

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Causality and Predictability of Complex Systems pose fundamental challenges even under well-defined structural stochastic-dynamic conditions where the laws of motion and system symmetries are known. However, the edifice of complexity can be profoundly transformed by structural-functional coevolution and non-recurrent elusive mechanisms changing the very same invariants of motion that had been taken for granted. This leads to recurrence collapse and memory loss, precluding the ability of traditional stochastic-dynamic and information-theoretic metrics to provide reliable information about the non-recurrent emergence of fundamental new properties absent from the a priori kinematic geometric and statistical features. Unveiling causal mechanisms and eliciting system dynamic predictability under such challenging conditions is not only a fundamental problem in mathematical and statistical physics, but also one of critical importance to dynamic modelling, risk assessment and decision support e.g. regarding non-recurrent critical transitions and extreme events. In order to address these challenges, generalized metrics in non-ergodic information physics are hereby introduced for unveiling elusive dynamics, causality and predictability of complex dynamical systems undergoing far-from-equilibrium structural-functional coevolution. With these methodological developments at hand, hidden dynamic information is hereby brought out and explicitly quantified even beyond post-critical regime collapse, long after statistical information is lost. The added causal insights and operational predictive value are further highlighted by evaluating the new information metrics among statistically independent variables, where traditional techniques therefore find no information links. Notwithstanding the factorability of the distributions associated to the aforementioned independent variables, synergistic and redundant information are found to emerge from microphysical, event-scale codependencies in far-from-equilibrium nonlinear statistical mechanics. The findings are illustrated to shed light onto fundamental causal mechanisms and unveil elusive dynamic predictability of non-recurrent critical transitions and extreme events across multiscale hydro-climatic problems.

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Douglas, K., J. V. Barrie, T. Dill, T. Fralic, and N. Koshure. 2021004PGC cruise report: mapping Salish Sea marine geohazards, British Columbia. Natural Resources Canada/CMSS/Information Management, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4095/329621.

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The Geological Survey of Canada (GSC) undertook marine fieldwork onboard the Canadian Coast Guard Ship (CCGS) Vector to locate and map potential geohazards and geological features in the Salish Sea in the interest of public safety from August 11-18, 2021. This work was conducted under the Natural Resources Canada Marine Geoscience for Marine Spatial Planning (MGMSP) and the Public Safety Geoscience Programs. The GSC had observed multiple potential faults in existing data near Central Haro Strait, Stuart Channel, South of Hornby Island and near Cape Lazo through existing CHIRP and multibeam bathymetry data but required further data to quantify their activity and potential seismic risk (Barrie et al, 2021). In addition to fault activity, the GSC had detected numerous large underwater landslide deposits in Howe Sound and Saanich Inlet. The GSC required further data to constrain volumes and timing of slide activity. In English Bay the origin and evolution of a field of pockmarks was poorly understood. In Burrard Inlet, the survey required a better understanding of frequency of landslides as well as depth of sediment in order to understand natural sediment depositional rates. The research expedition included deep-tow system (DTS) sub-bottom surveys and multibeam water column and bathymetric surveys in each of these areas to better understand these marine geohazards and processes. Hydrographic surveys were completed by the Canadian Hydrographic Service (CHS) at night in Pylades Channel and near Point Grey to maximize use of ship time. Weather was good, seas were calm, and good quality data were collected. The data collected will be made publicly available and have the potential to contribute to building codes and to help communities in their decision-making and understanding of risks.

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