Добірка наукової літератури з теми "Commodités agricoles"

Cet article examine l’impact économique du débat autour du changement climatique sur les marchés de produits agricoles. Il montre, en particulier, comment et quand l’attention du public au terme « climate change » (changement climatique) et « global warming » (réchauffement de la planète) influence les prix des futures sur le soja. En nous appuyant sur une analyse de la cohérence par ondelettes, nous identifions les périodes de haute cohérence et analysons la relation entre, d’une part, l’attention du public et, d’autre part, les événements climatiques extrêmes et les variations climatiques. En outre, nous examinons la relation entre l’attention du public et les variations inattendues du prix du soja et analysons l’effet de certains événements qui attirent l’attention. Nos résultats suggèrent que l’attention du public a un effet significatif et transversal sur les prix des futures sur le soja.

ABSTRACT Listeria monocytogenes may be present in produce-associated environments (e.g., fields, packing houses); thus, understanding its growth and survival on intact, whole produce is of critical importance. The goal of this study was to identify and characterize published data on the growth and/or survival of L. monocytogenes on intact fruit and vegetable surfaces. Relevant studies were identified by searching seven electronic databases: AGRICOLA, CAB Abstracts, Center for Produce Safety funded research project final reports, FST Abstracts, Google Scholar, PubMed, and Web of Science. Searches were conducted using the following terms: Listeria monocytogenes, produce, growth, and survival. Search terms were also modified and “exploded” to find all related subheadings. Included studies had to be prospective, describe methodology (e.g., inoculation method), outline experimental parameters, and provide quantitative growth and/or survival data. Studies were not included if methods were unclear or inappropriate, or if produce was cut, processed, or otherwise treated. Of 3,459 identified citations, 88 were reviewed in full and 29 studies met the inclusion criteria. Included studies represented 21 commodities, with the majority of studies focusing on melons, leafy greens, berries, or sprouts. Synthesis of the reviewed studies suggests L. monocytogenes growth and survival on intact produce surfaces differ substantially by commodity. Parameters such as temperature and produce surface characteristics had a considerable effect on L. monocytogenes growth and survival dynamics. This review provides an inventory of the current data on L. monocytogenes growth and/or survival on intact produce surfaces. Identification of which intact produce commodities support L. monocytogenes growth and/or survival at various conditions observed along the supply chain will assist the industry in managing L. monocytogenes contamination risk. HIGHLIGHTS

The new demand for rurality raises new issues: it is no longer a question of sustaining a traditional agricultural model based exclusively on productivity and profit maximisation, but rather agriculture strongly oriented towards the production of non-commodity outputs that very often have the characteristics of externalities or public goods. Based on these assumptions, the paper intends to frame the role of multifunctional agriculture for the development of peri-urban areas looking in particular to the agricultural parks phenomenon, in which innovative and multifunctional agriculture is practiced (with environmental, landscape, and social functions), to asses if they can represent a strategic resource for the tourist enhancement of territories on the edge of urban and rural areas. With this perspective, two Italian case studies, Parco agricolo di Ciaculli (Palermo and Parco agricolo Sud Milano (Milano), have been analyzed highlighting their main characteristics and under which conditions they can play the role of tourism development driver.

Most analysts were surprised by the sudden milk prices downturn which occurred at the same time as the removal of European milk quotas. In general, they considered it as an exceptional event, justifying ad hoc political interventions, but no revision of the liberal way of thinking. Yet, it is also possible to interpret it as a normal transitory phenomenon, likely to occur on any market when demand is rigid, and long run supply elastic. In such a situation, which is the case of agricultural commodities, the market equilibrium is unstable, in the mathematical meaning of the word. Then, the market dynamic results in a succession of peaks and slumps around the ''normal'' price, which never prevails. The cost of these variations might be greater than the benefit which can be expected from liberalisation. As a consequence, policies aiming at severing all links between agriculture and markets, as was the case of the CAP before1992, were perhaps less detrimental than commonly assessed.

Il sistema agro-alimentare italiano sta cercando percorsi innovativi, atti a garantire più equi assetti economici, una generale riappropriazione dei valori di cura e cultura del territorio, una maggiore attenzione alle tematiche sociali. Tale ampia e profonda innovazione di sistema, in contrasto con la cultura dei mercati alimentari delle commodity, risponde alla necessità di assumere consapevolmente le indicazioni di Agenda 2030. Con nuove politiche territoriali, sviluppate a scala locale, possono essere recuperati e rinforzati i legami esistenti fra gli ambiti della produzione agricola e quelli della ristorazione collettiva istituzionale. I nuovi sistemi agroalimentari locali e sostenibili possono essere studiati, sviluppati, gestiti all'interno di bioregioni, vale a dire aree individuate e analizzate utilizzando criteri ecosistemici, superando gli attuali più rigidi confini amministrativi.

After the sharp increase in agricultural commodity prices during 2007, agricultural markets seem to have entered in the era of structural instability. There are different reasons, like growth in food demand, markets structure and trade policies. The increase in price volatility has implications for all stakeholders in the food chain. Especially for farmers, who are affected by both market power problems and imperfect price transmission. This topic is now at the center of the European debate on the future of Common Agricultural Policy (cap). In particular, after the crisis in the dairy sector in 2009 has been started a comprehensive discussion in Europe, which led to the first legislative step aimed at strengthening the prerogatives of producers in the primary sector. The work aims to provide both an overview of these phenomena and the implications for European policy maker, now engaged in reforming the cap.

This research was aimed at investigating the recent climatic vagary on livestock production and household performance with the subsequent effect of COVID -19 pandemic in the South- Western Nigeria. Online survey was employed using a structured questionnaire as the test instrument. A total of 100 respondents was examined on how the recent climate change affect household performance, food consumption, farming (livestock production) with associated effects of COVID -19 pandemic. Data generated were subjected to descriptive statistics. Results depicted that 95.1% of respondents had tertiary education, 68.2% and 50.0% were male and self-employed, respectively. Majority (98.8%) of the respondents were aware of the recent effect of climate change on livestock and 77.9% had been victims of it. About 56.5% kept livestock under intensive system. It was observed that 90.7% confirmed severe effect of climate change on availability of feed and the price. About 43.5% and 32.1% indicated that recent climate change had severe effects on level of production and mortality respectively. Report on household performance showed that 61.6% engaged in farming, in which livestock was 33.3% and mixed farming was 38.6%. Severity of the effect of climate change was confirmed by 80% of the respondents with subsequent effect on price of food commodity (94%), with family level of production (78.8%) and cost of production (90.5%). Pandemic decreased effect on the purchasing power of respondents (54.7%) which equally affected the family food intake as confirmed by 73.6% and consequently affected the family protein consumption. It was observed that salary alone will not be enough to cope with future effect of pandemic but farming and side businesses are of vital values. These findings necessitate the adoption of agricultural production in every household to limit the effect of climatic change and financial crises posed by the pandemic. Conclusively, to curb the negative effect of climate change cum COVID-19 pandemic, agricultural practices should be encouraged among the youths and females to abate the impending food insecurity. Also, the rural agriculture should be encouraged through various agricultural aids to spur farmers' interest and boost their production potentials. Cette recherche visait à enquêter sur les récents aléas climatiques sur la production animale et les performances des ménages avec l'effet consécutif de la pandémie COVID -19 dans le sud-ouest du Nigéria. L'enquête en ligne a été utilisée en utilisant un questionnaire structuré comme instrument de test. Un total de 100 répondants a été examiné sur la façon dont le récent changement climatique affecte les performances des ménages, la consommation alimentaire, l'agriculture (production animale) avec les effets associés de la pandémie COVID -19. Les données générées ont été soumises à des statistiques descriptives. Les Climate vagary and COVID-19 Pandemic: Influence on livestock production résultats ont montré que 95.1% des personnes interrogées avaient fait des études supérieures, 68.2% et 50.0% étaient des hommes et des travailleurs indépendants, respectivement. La majorité (98.8%) des répondants étaient au courant de l'effet récent du changement climatique sur le bétail et 77.9% en avaient été victimes. Environ 56.5% ont gardé le bétail dans un système intensif. Il a été observé que 90,7% confirmaient un effet grave du changement climatique sur la disponibilité des aliments pour animaux et le prix. Environ 43.5% et 32.1% ont indiqué que les changements climatiques récents ont eu des effets graves sur le niveau de production et la mortalité respectivement. Le rapport sur la performance des ménages a montré que 61.6% étaient engagés dans l'agriculture, dans laquelle le bétail était de 33.3% et l'agriculture mixte était de 38.6%. La gravité de l'effet du changement climatique a été confirmée par 80% des répondants avec un effet ultérieur sur le prix des denrées alimentaires (94%), avec le niveau de production familial (78.8%) et le coût de production (90.5%). La pandémie a diminué l'effet sur le pouvoir d'achat des répondants (54.7%), ce qui a également affecté l'apport alimentaire de la famille comme le confirme 73.6% et a par conséquent affecté la consommation de protéines de la famille. Il a été observé que le salaire à lui seul ne suffira pas pour faire face aux effets futurs de la pandémie, mais l'agriculture et les activités annexes sont des valeurs vitales. Ces constats nécessitent l'adoption de la production agricole dans chaque ménage pour limiter les effets du changement climatique et des crises financières posés par la pandémie. En conclusion, pour freiner l'effet négatif du changement climatique et de la pandémie de COVID-19, les pratiques agricoles devraient être encouragées chez les jeunes et les femmes afin de réduire l'insécurité alimentaire imminente. En outre, l'agriculture rurale devrait être encouragée par diverses aides agricoles pour stimuler l'intérêt des agriculteurs et accroître leur potentiel de production.

ResumoConsiderada pelo governo militar como um vazio demográfico que deveria ser ocupado, a região Centro-Oeste brasileira vivenciou, durante os anos 70 e 80 do século 20, um processo de modernização das atividades agrícolas e de consumo de produtos industriais. Uma integração que atendeu aos interesses do capital, que associado ao Estado brasileiro conduziu o Centro-Oeste à especialização na produção de commodities. Entre as estratégias utilizadas pelo governo, destacamos a criação da Superintendência de Desenvolvimento do Centro-Oeste (SUDECO), em 1967, que teve a tarefa de conduzir o Centro-Oeste a uma integração com as demais regiões do Brasil. Com o objetivo de analisar o papel da Primeira Sudeco (1967 a 1990) como órgão de planejamento e desenvolvimento do Centro-Oeste, esse trabalho foi conduzido por meio do levantamento da literatura regional que discute o papel da Superintendência no processo de desenvolvimento da região Centro-Oeste brasileira, de dados e indicadores estatísticos e dos documentos da própria Superintendência. A ação estatal na região foi fundamental para consolidar os interesses do capital agroindustrial com a integração da região Centro-Oeste à economia nacional.Palavras-chave: Estado, planejamento, integração, commodities. AbstractConsidered by the military government as a demographic vacuum which should be occupied, the Brazilian mid-west region went through a process of modernization in its agricultural activities and demand for manufactured goods through the 70s and 80s of the 20th century. There was integration that fulfilled the interests of capital, and associated with the Brazilian Government, it led the Mid-West to specialize in the production of commodities. Among the strategies used by the government, we point out the creation of Superintendência de Desenvolvimento do Centro-Oeste (SUDECO), in 1967, which aimed to lead the Mid-West to integrate into the other regions in Brazil. With the objective of analyzing the role of the first Sudeco (from 1967 to 1990) as a planning and development institution in the Mid-West, this work was carried out through analyzing regional literature that discuss the role of the Institution in the development process of the Brazilian mid-west region, and also the Institution’s data, statistical indicators and documents. The governmental action in the region was essential to consolidate the interests of agricultural and industrial investments with the integration of the Mid-West region into the national economy.Keywords: State, planning, integration, commodities. RésuméConsiderée, à l’époque du régime militaire, comme un vide démographique destiné à être peuplé, la région du centre-ouest brésilien a connu, durant les années 1970 et 1980, un processus de mordernisation de ses activités agricoles et de consommation de produits industriels. Lié aux intérêts du capital, cet effort d’intégration, en association avec l’État brésilien, a conduit la région du Centre-Ouest vers l’expertise dans la production de commodities. Parmi les stratégies mises en place par le gouvernement se situe, en particulier, la création de la Surintendance de Développement du Centre-Ouest (Sudeco) en 1967, dont le but était de promouvoir une intégration avec les autres régions du Brésil. Ayant pour but d’analyser le rôle de la première Sudeco (1967-1990) en tant qu’organe de plannification et de développement du Centre-Ouest, cette recherche s’est basée sur la révision de la littérature régionale disponible, notamment le rôle de la Surintendance dans le processus de développement de la région Centre-Ouest brésilienne. Sont également présentés des données, des indicateurs statistiques et des documents élaborés par la Surintendance. L’action de l’état dans la région a joué un rôle fondamental dans la consolidation des intérêts du capital agro-industriel, à la suite de l’intégration de la région dans l’économie nationale.Mots-clés: État, plannification, intégration, commodities.

Cette thèse développe un cadre méthodologique innovant destiné à la prévision des prix et des rendements agricoles à l'échelle mondiale, en s'appuyant exclusivement sur l'analyse de données satellitaires et l'utilisation d'algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique avancés. Alors que les modèles prévisionnels conventionnels reposent sur une combinaison de données météorologiques, d'analyses économétriques et de rapports agricoles — sources souvent affectées par des délais et des imprécisions — notre approche propose une alternative robuste et en temps réel.Notre méthodologie s'articule autour de l'exploitation de trois paramètres biophysiques clés dérivés des observations satellitaires : la Production Primaire Brute (GPP), l'Indice de Surface Foliaire (LAI) et la Fraction de Radiation Photosynthétiquement Active Absorbée (FAPAR). Ces indicateurs permettent une évaluation précise des conditions environnementales locales et une prédiction fiable des variations de rendements et de prix, s'affranchissant ainsi des limitations inhérentes aux rapports traditionnels.L'originalité de notre approche réside dans l'application d'algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique sophistiqués, couplée à des techniques avancées de réduction de la dimensionnalité. Nous explorons notamment l'utilisation des Fonctions Orthogonales Empiriques, des Autoencodeurs classiques et des Autoencodeurs Variationnels pour extraire les caractéristiques essentielles des données satellitaires complexes. La validation approfondie de notre cadre prédictif, réalisée sur différentes cultures stratégiques (maïs et soja) et diverses zones géographiques (États-Unis, Afrique du Sud, Malawi), démontre sa polyvalence et son adaptabilité.Les résultats empiriques confirment la remarquable efficacité de notre approche exclusivement satellitaire. Les prévisions de rendement atteignent des niveaux de précision exceptionnels, avec des coefficients de détermination (( R² )) de 0,90 pour le maïs et 0,79 pour le soja. Les prédictions de prix démontrent également une performance significative, avec des ( R² ) de 0,48 et 0,46 respectivement pour le maïs et le soja, surpassant notablement les méthodes conventionnelles pour les prévisions précoces et médianes de la saison.Ce travail de recherche apporte une contribution majeure au domaine de la prévision agricole en proposant un outil analytique alliant évolutivité, réactivité et précision. Au-delà des avancées méthodologiques, notre approche offre un potentiel considérable pour améliorer la stabilité des marchés agricoles mondiaux en fournissant des indicateurs précoces et fiables sur les tendances de production et de prix. Ces informations stratégiques permettront aux acteurs du secteur d'optimiser leur prise de décision et de mieux anticiper les dynamiques du marché
This thesis presents a novel methodological framework for forecasting the prices and yields of agricultural products on a global scale by exclusively using satellite-derived data and advanced machine learning techniques. Traditional forecasting models often rely on weather data, econometric analyses, or agricultural production reports, which are frequently hindered by delays and inaccuracies due to the limited availability and reliability of regional data on crop production and demand.To overcome these barriers, we exploit mid-season satellite-derived biophysical parameter estimates—Gross Primary Production (GPP), Leaf Area Index (LAI), and Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR)—to estimate local environmental conditions and predict variations in yields and prices of agricultural products without depending on third-party reports.We examine the effectiveness of various machine learning algorithms and dimensionality reduction techniques, including Empirical Orthogonal Functions, Autoencoders, and Variational Autoencoders, to identify critical features from high-dimensional satellite images. Our forecasting framework is validated on different staple crops—maize and soy—and across diverse geographical regions, including the United States, South Africa, and Malawi. This demonstrates the generalizability and robustness of the model under varying climatic conditions and agricultural practices.The results show that our forecasting framework, based exclusively on satellite data, achieves high predictive accuracies, with coefficients of determination (( R² )) reaching up to 0.90 for maize yields and 0.79 for soybean yields. Price predictions also exhibit notable performance, with ( R² ) values of 0.48 for maize and 0.46 for soy, thereby surpassing traditional methods for early and mid-season forecasts.This work contributes to the advancement of agricultural forecasting by providing a scalable, timely, and precise tool that allows various stakeholders to make more informed decisions. The proposed forecasting tool could potentially improve the stability of global agricultural markets by providing better visibility into expected levels of production and price trends

La régulation des marchés des matières premières agricoles est un travail qui vise à évaluer les conséquences de l‘évolution de notre société sur ce produit essentiel. En effet, son prix est soumis à de nombreuses influences. Pourtant le droit a décidé pour le moment de s‘en détourner dans la majorité. Ce travail doctoral tente ainsi de déterminer quelles sont les points faibles des législations dans plusieurs domaines afin de sécuriser ce produit dont la valeur inconsciente est essentielle pour obtenir la paix social que le droit tend à obtenir
The regulation of agricultural commodity markets is a academic‘s work that evaluates the consequences of the evolution of our society on this essential product. Indeed, its price is subject to many influences. Yet the Law has decided for the moment to turn away from it in the majority. This doctoral work thus tries to determine what are the weak points of the legislations in several fields in order to secure this product whose unconscious value is essential to obtain the social peace that the Law tends to obtain

L’obiettivo della tesi è quello di analizzare l’andamento dei mercati delle commodities agricole per capirne le aspettative future. In particolare capire l’importanza del contributo degli speculatori finanziari sui prezzi agricoli da una parte e dall’altra capire quali saranno le contromisure che si dovranno adottare per impedire un costante aumento dei prezzi di queste commodities.

Sur les marchés agricoles, les producteurs encourent les risques de prix et de production ainsi que d'autres types de risques liés aux aléas de production. Ces risques impactent l'activité du producteur et pourraient diminuer ses revenus. La mondialisation des marchés, en particulier ceux des matières premières agricoles, permet de développer une stratégie de couverture en utilisant des instruments comme les contrats à terme. Cependant, la situation selon laquelle une position basée seulement sur un contrat futures devrait couvrir tous les risques, entraîne un marché incomplet. Le producteur en recherche de meilleure stratégie de couverture pour ajouter un contrat d'assurance ou d'option pour garantir davantage ses revenus, surtout lorsque les rendements des cultures prévus diminuent. Nous étudions, ici les stratégies de couverture dans le cadre statique, ainsi que dans le cadre de temps continu. Avant, nous analysons le comportement des prix des matières premières agricoles en utilisant diverses approches statistiques afin de suggérer la modélisation des prix adéquate aux données. La stratégie de couverture statique comprend également le processus de retournement de positions qui pourrait entraîner d'autres risques supplémentaires en raison de l'écart entre les nouveaux contrats à terme et des contrats à terme à proximité ainsi que la couverture inter-culture. Nous proposons une stratégie de couverture qui combine des contrats futures et d'assurance. Comme la prise de décisions dans le cadre statique ne tient pas compte des mouvements quotidiens de prix le long de l'horizon de couverture, la stratégie de couverture optimale en temps continu combine des positions en contrat à terme et options tout en prenant en compte les sauts et la saisonnalité dans la dynamique des prix
In agricultural markets, producers incur price and production risks as well as other risks related to production contingencies. These risks impact the producer activity and could decrease his income. The globalization of markets, particularly those of agricultural commodities, provides hedging instruments including futures contracts which will serve to develop a hedging strategy. However, the situation whereby a single futures contract-based positions could offset many risks leads to incomplete market. Especially, an producer looking for better hedging strategy could also include insurance, option contract or mutual funds to further guarantee his income, specially when crop yields are lower than expected.vspace{0.25cm}We investigate the hedging strategies in static framework as well as in continuous time framework. Prior, we analyze the behavior of agricultural prices using various statistical approaches and suggest appropriate price modeling for data at hands. The static hedging strategy also accounts for rollover process which gives raise to additional risks due to spread between new futures and nearby futures and inter-crop hedging. We particularly address hedging strategy that combines futures and insurance contracts. Since decisions making in static framework does not include price changes along the hedging horizon, optimal hedging strategy in continuous time framework will take into account jumps and seasonality by combining futures and option contracts

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O presente trabalho teve por objetivo estimar o custo médio de capital em produtos agrícolas. Existem modelos que determinam o custo médio de capital no mercado de capitais, definindo parâmetro para fixação do que se chama de taxa mínima de atratividade em investimentos produtivos. Tais modelos levam em conta o custo de capital de terceiros, que é determinado a partir de pesquisas em linhas de crédito disponíveis no mercado e ainda o custo do capital próprio, este sim, requerendo uma análise detalhada de sua composição. Foi construído um modelo que pondere o custo de obter recursos de terceiros, quando houver, e o capital próprio, tendo por base o modelo CAPM – Capital AssetPrincing Model (Modelo de Precificação de Ativos) utilizado quando da análise de risco e retorno no mercado de capital. A finalidade deste estudo é aplicar esta metodologia na análise de risco e retorno em investimentos produtivos em setores que operam com produtos agrícolas. Para tanto foi realizada revisão bibliográfica, bem como a definição de materiais e métodos, com a apuração de resultados. Foi aplicado o modelo CAPM em uma ação selecionada comparando-o ao mercado acionário como um todo, representado pelo IBOVESPA. Em seguida foi construída carteira teórica de produtos agrícolas selecionados para este fim, denominado de I PRODUTOS AGRÍCOLAS. Em seguida foi analisado isoladamente cada produto selecionado, comparando-o a esta carteira teórica de produtos agrícolas, construída especialmente para tal fim. Com isso pretendeu-se testar cientificamente um modelo que permita, quando da análise da viabilidade de projetos no setor agrícola, estabelecer a taxa mínima de atratividade que retrate o risco e retorno no setor, ponderando o custo do capital próprio, originado a partir do modelo CAPM e o custo do capital de terceiros, baseado nas taxas de juros praticados pelo mercado...
This work had aimed to estimate the average cost of capital in agricultural products. There are templates that determine the average cost of capital on the capital market, defining parameter for fixing the called minimum rate of attractiveness in productive investments. These models take into account the cost of third-party capital, which is determined from searches on credit lines available in the market and even the cost of equity, this sim, requiring a detailed analysis of its composition. Will be built a model that considers the cost of taking the resources of third parties, when, and equity, on the basis of the CAPM Capital Asset Princing Model (asset pricing model) used when analyzing risk and return on the capital market. The purpose of this study is to apply this methodology in the analysis of risk and return in productive investments in sectors that operate with agricultural products. For both was conducted literature review as well as the definition of materials and methods, with the poll results. Was applied the CAPM model in a selected action comparing it to the stock market as a whole, represented by the IBOVESPA. Next was built theoretical portfolio of selected agricultural products for this purpose, called I agricultural products. Then was analyzed separately each product selected, comparing it to this theoretical portfolio of agricultural products, built especially for this purpose. This was intended to test scientifically a template that allows, when assessing the feasibility of projects in the agricultural sector, establish the minimum rate of attractiveness that portrays the risk and return in the sector, bearing in mind the cost of equity, originated from the CAPM and the cost of capital to third parties, based on the interest rates charged by the market. The model developed generated a theoretical reference in determining... (Complete abstract click electronic access below)

L’agricoltura è una attività rischiosa. Oggigiorno ciò è principalmente dovuto alla persistente volatilità dei prezzi ed agli eventi incerti (ad esempio eventi avversi meteorologici e climatici, la pandemia di COVID-19) che causano rischi sia di prezzo che di produzione. Il rischio di reddito incide sulla resilienza degli agricoltori nel lungo periodo. Gli agricoltori Europei hanno a loro disposizione numerose strategie di gestione del rischio di prezzo (es. strategie di auto-coping delle aziende agricole, strumenti sovvenzionati e non sovvenzionati come assicurazioni, fondi comuni di investimento, derivati, ecc.). Fra tutti, la gestione del rischio tramite contratti agricoli (contratti forward e futures) mostra un limitato tasso di adozione a livello Europeo ed Italiano. Nel contesto dell’agricoltura Europea ed Italiana, questa Tesi mira a valutare la fattibilità delle strategie di hedging con contratti futures e la misura dell'efficacia nel ridurre la volatilità dei redditi degli agricoltori. Inoltre, un altro obiettivo di ricerca di questa tesi è la comprensione di quali attributi influenzano l'adozione dei contratti per la gestione del rischio di prezzo a livello aziendale. L'obiettivo più ampio risiede nella fornitura di approfondimenti che sono strumentali allo sviluppo di strumenti di gestione del rischio promettenti tra gli agricoltori Europei e Italiani. Le più recenti riforme della Politica Agricola Comune, infatti, hanno portato a ridurre il sostegno al reddito degli agricoltori; pertanto, è di fondamentale importanza studiare nuove strategie per la tutela del reddito degli agricoltori. La presente tesi è strutturata in quattro articoli scientifici, presentando le problematiche generali nell’introduzione, sviluppandosi in quattro capitoli (articoli scientifici) e traendo delle conclusioni finali alla luce di quanto emerso da questa ricerca. Il capitolo 2 presenta lo studio della trasmissione dei prezzi tra i contratti futures e i prezzi spot. Nel contesto del mercato maidicolo, il capitolo esamina il grado di trasmissione tra il prezzo dei contratti futures quotati nel Chicago Board of Trade e nell’Euronext, e tra i prezzi spot di una selezione di Stati Membri dell'Unione Europea. Analogamente, nel Capitolo 3, viene esaminata la relazione tra i prezzi dei contratti futures quotati nel CBOT ed Euronext ei prezzi spot per i mercati agricoli italiani della soia, del mais e del grano macinato. Il capitolo presenta i risultati dell’analisi di trasmissione simmetrica e asimmetrica dei prezzi, confermando la presenza di una relazione di cointegrazione non lineare per le materie prime agricole considerate. Il capitolo 4 presenta l'analisi dell'efficacia della copertura del rischio di prezzo tramite contratti futures nel ridurre la volatilità del reddito degli agricoltori italiani. L'analisi considera i prezzi dei contratti futures quotati nel CBOT e nell’Euronext e per soia, mais e grano tenero. Attraverso il confronto di un portafoglio con e senza strumenti di hedging, è stata valutata la riduzione del rischio di prezzo connessa con l’utilizzo di questi strumenti. In fine, il capitolo 5, sviluppando un framework di analisi per l’adozione di innovazioni, analizza quali caratteristiche influenzano l'adozione dei contratti da parte degli agricoltori.
Farmers face risks. Indeed, agriculture is a risky business, and nowadays this is mainly due to the persisting price volatility and uncertain events (i.e., weather and climate adverse events, the COVID-19 pandemic) causing both price and production risks. As a consequence, the income risk affects farmers resilience in the long run. Numerous risk management strategies are available for handling price risk (i.e., farms' self-coping strategies, subsidized and non-subsidized instruments as insurance, mutual funds, derivatives, etc.). Among these, hedging with agricultural contracts (forward and futures contracts) shows a limited adoption rate by farmers. This thesis aims at evaluating the feasibility of hedging with international futures markets for farmers, and the measure of the effectiveness of these market instruments in reducing farmers’ income volatility. Moreover, another research objective of this thesis is the understanding of the determinants of farmers' adoption of agricultural contracts to manage price risk at the farm level. The broader objective lies in the provision of insights that are instrumental to the development of such promising risk management tools among both European and Italian farmers. Indeed, the most recent reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy led to reducing farmers' income support; hence studying new strategies for protecting farmers’ income is of paramount importance. This thesis is a collection of four papers and consists of an introduction, followed by four chapters (papers) and the conclusions. Accordingly, each paper is presented in a separate chapter, and hence the chapters are self-contained and may be read individually. Chapters 2 presents the study of price transmission between futures and spot prices. This examines the degree of transmission for the corn commodity between global futures price in either the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) or Euronext and the spot prices for a selection of the Member States of the European Union. Indeed, given the volatility characterizing agricultural commodity prices and the decreasing level of income support granted by the Common Agricultural Policy, the development of new market strategies is of the utmost importance for European farmers. Similarly, in Chapter 3, the relationship between the CBOT and Euronext futures prices and the spot prices for the Italian agricultural markets of soybean, corn, and milling wheat is examined. The chapter presents the results of a symmetric and asymmetric vector error correction model (VECM), confirming the presence of a non-linear cointegration relationship for all the agricultural commodity prices. Chapter 4 presents the analysis of the hedging effectiveness in reducing Italian farmers’ income volatility through CBOT and Euronext futures contracts. The analysis focused on soybean, corn, and milling wheat prices. Different hedging horizons are considered for the estimation of the hedge portfolio then compared to an unhedged portfolio for assessing the granted price risk reduction. Chapter 5 analyses farmers’ characteristics influencing the adoption of marketing contracts within an innovation adoption framework, given the scarce adoption of marketing contracts among farmers. As before mentioned, the thesis ends with some main conclusions.

L’agricoltura è una attività rischiosa. Oggigiorno ciò è principalmente dovuto alla persistente volatilità dei prezzi ed agli eventi incerti (ad esempio eventi avversi meteorologici e climatici, la pandemia di COVID-19) che causano rischi sia di prezzo che di produzione. Il rischio di reddito incide sulla resilienza degli agricoltori nel lungo periodo. Gli agricoltori Europei hanno a loro disposizione numerose strategie di gestione del rischio di prezzo (es. strategie di auto-coping delle aziende agricole, strumenti sovvenzionati e non sovvenzionati come assicurazioni, fondi comuni di investimento, derivati, ecc.). Fra tutti, la gestione del rischio tramite contratti agricoli (contratti forward e futures) mostra un limitato tasso di adozione a livello Europeo ed Italiano. Nel contesto dell’agricoltura Europea ed Italiana, questa Tesi mira a valutare la fattibilità delle strategie di hedging con contratti futures e la misura dell'efficacia nel ridurre la volatilità dei redditi degli agricoltori. Inoltre, un altro obiettivo di ricerca di questa tesi è la comprensione di quali attributi influenzano l'adozione dei contratti per la gestione del rischio di prezzo a livello aziendale. L'obiettivo più ampio risiede nella fornitura di approfondimenti che sono strumentali allo sviluppo di strumenti di gestione del rischio promettenti tra gli agricoltori Europei e Italiani. Le più recenti riforme della Politica Agricola Comune, infatti, hanno portato a ridurre il sostegno al reddito degli agricoltori; pertanto, è di fondamentale importanza studiare nuove strategie per la tutela del reddito degli agricoltori. La presente tesi è strutturata in quattro articoli scientifici, presentando le problematiche generali nell’introduzione, sviluppandosi in quattro capitoli (articoli scientifici) e traendo delle conclusioni finali alla luce di quanto emerso da questa ricerca. Il capitolo 2 presenta lo studio della trasmissione dei prezzi tra i contratti futures e i prezzi spot. Nel contesto del mercato maidicolo, il capitolo esamina il grado di trasmissione tra il prezzo dei contratti futures quotati nel Chicago Board of Trade e nell’Euronext, e tra i prezzi spot di una selezione di Stati Membri dell'Unione Europea. Analogamente, nel Capitolo 3, viene esaminata la relazione tra i prezzi dei contratti futures quotati nel CBOT ed Euronext ei prezzi spot per i mercati agricoli italiani della soia, del mais e del grano macinato. Il capitolo presenta i risultati dell’analisi di trasmissione simmetrica e asimmetrica dei prezzi, confermando la presenza di una relazione di cointegrazione non lineare per le materie prime agricole considerate. Il capitolo 4 presenta l'analisi dell'efficacia della copertura del rischio di prezzo tramite contratti futures nel ridurre la volatilità del reddito degli agricoltori italiani. L'analisi considera i prezzi dei contratti futures quotati nel CBOT e nell’Euronext e per soia, mais e grano tenero. Attraverso il confronto di un portafoglio con e senza strumenti di hedging, è stata valutata la riduzione del rischio di prezzo connessa con l’utilizzo di questi strumenti. In fine, il capitolo 5, sviluppando un framework di analisi per l’adozione di innovazioni, analizza quali caratteristiche influenzano l'adozione dei contratti da parte degli agricoltori.
Farmers face risks. Indeed, agriculture is a risky business, and nowadays this is mainly due to the persisting price volatility and uncertain events (i.e., weather and climate adverse events, the COVID-19 pandemic) causing both price and production risks. As a consequence, the income risk affects farmers resilience in the long run. Numerous risk management strategies are available for handling price risk (i.e., farms' self-coping strategies, subsidized and non-subsidized instruments as insurance, mutual funds, derivatives, etc.). Among these, hedging with agricultural contracts (forward and futures contracts) shows a limited adoption rate by farmers. This thesis aims at evaluating the feasibility of hedging with international futures markets for farmers, and the measure of the effectiveness of these market instruments in reducing farmers’ income volatility. Moreover, another research objective of this thesis is the understanding of the determinants of farmers' adoption of agricultural contracts to manage price risk at the farm level. The broader objective lies in the provision of insights that are instrumental to the development of such promising risk management tools among both European and Italian farmers. Indeed, the most recent reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy led to reducing farmers' income support; hence studying new strategies for protecting farmers’ income is of paramount importance. This thesis is a collection of four papers and consists of an introduction, followed by four chapters (papers) and the conclusions. Accordingly, each paper is presented in a separate chapter, and hence the chapters are self-contained and may be read individually. Chapters 2 presents the study of price transmission between futures and spot prices. This examines the degree of transmission for the corn commodity between global futures price in either the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) or Euronext and the spot prices for a selection of the Member States of the European Union. Indeed, given the volatility characterizing agricultural commodity prices and the decreasing level of income support granted by the Common Agricultural Policy, the development of new market strategies is of the utmost importance for European farmers. Similarly, in Chapter 3, the relationship between the CBOT and Euronext futures prices and the spot prices for the Italian agricultural markets of soybean, corn, and milling wheat is examined. The chapter presents the results of a symmetric and asymmetric vector error correction model (VECM), confirming the presence of a non-linear cointegration relationship for all the agricultural commodity prices. Chapter 4 presents the analysis of the hedging effectiveness in reducing Italian farmers’ income volatility through CBOT and Euronext futures contracts. The analysis focused on soybean, corn, and milling wheat prices. Different hedging horizons are considered for the estimation of the hedge portfolio then compared to an unhedged portfolio for assessing the granted price risk reduction. Chapter 5 analyses farmers’ characteristics influencing the adoption of marketing contracts within an innovation adoption framework, given the scarce adoption of marketing contracts among farmers. As before mentioned, the thesis ends with some main conclusions.

Le compromis entre les objectifs de développement économique et ceux de la protection de l’environnement ne cesse de faire l’objet d’une attention particulière au sein des pays en développement. Les organisations internationales, les gouvernements nationaux et mêmes des institutions académiques de recherche s’accordent sur la nécessité d’émettre et appliquer des politiques économiques qui permettent d’accroître le revenu des habitants tout en dégradant le moins possible l’environnement. Cette thèse de doctorat s’inscrit dans cette réflexion du développement durable à travers ses chapitres qui se focalisent sur les aires protégées, la déforestation et les performances agricoles au sein des pays en développement. Le premier chapitre présente le cadre contextuel et théorique de l’étude. Le deuxième chapitre s’intéresse aux effets de l’instrument de protection de l’environnement – les aires protégées – sur la déforestation. En se focalisant sur le cas du Brésil en Amazonie légale, il montre que les aires protégées indigènes et intégrales permettent de réduire la déforestation, contrairement aux aires protégées soutenables. Le troisième chapitre s’intéresse aux effets des aires protégées sur l’agriculture. Contrairement aux intuitions selon lesquelles les aires protégées entraveraient le développement de l’agriculture, il montre, dans le cas du Brésil en Amazonie Légale, que la politique de création d’aires protégées améliore les performances agricoles des producteurs. Ces derniers emploient davantage des pratiques qui permettent d’obtenir plus de rendements sur de petites surfaces sans toutefois dégrader l’environnement ni augmenter la déforestation. Le quatrième chapitre se réfère à la relation empirique entre les prix des matières premières agricoles et la déforestation. Il s’avère que l’évolution des prix des matières premières agricoles favorise la perte de la forêt dans les pays en développement disposant de surfaces forestières importantes. Autrement dit, au fur et à mesure que les prix vont s’accroître, la demande de matières premières agricoles augmentant avec la croissance démographique, le processus de déforestation va également s’accroître entraînant une perte importante de la forêt dans le long terme. Finalement, la thèse recommande d’accroître la création des aires protégées qui permettent d’éviter une déforestation importante au sein des pays en développement, mais aussi de mettre en place des politiques de contrôle ou de stabilisation des effets d’accroissement de prix des matières premières agricoles et d’encourager l’adoption de technologies agricoles qui permettent d’obtenir suffisamment de production sur des surfaces de terre réduites
The trade-off between the economic development and the environmental goals is always subject of attention in developing countries. International organizations, national governments and even academic research institutions agree that development countries should implement economic policies that increase people's incomes while minimizing the environmental degradation. This doctoral thesis is part of this reflection on sustainable development through its chapters that focus on protected areas, deforestation and agricultural performance in developing countries. The first chapter presents the contextual and theoretical framework of the study. The second chapter focuses on the effects of the environmental protection instrument - protected areas - on deforestation. Focusing on the case of Brazil in the Legal Amazon, he shows that indigenous and integral protected areas reduce deforestation, which is not the case for sustainable protected areas. The third chapter focuses on the effects of protected areas on agriculture. Contrary to the intuitions that protected areas would hinder the development of agriculture, it shows, in the case of Brazil in the Legal Amazon, that the policy of creating protected areas improves the agricultural performance of producers. The latter employ more practices that allow more yields to be obtained on small areas without degrading the environment or increasing deforestation. The fourth chapter refers to the empirical relationship between agricultural commodity prices and deforestation. It appears that changes in the prices of agricultural raw materials favor the loss of forests in developing countries with large forest areas. In other words, as prices rise, as demand for agricultural raw materials increases with population growth, the deforestation process will also increase, leading to a significant loss of forest in the long term. Finally, the thesis recommends increasing the creation of protected areas to avoid significant deforestation in developing countries. Policies that control and stabilize the price increase effects of agricultural raw materials should also be a key objective in developing countries. We recommend again the adoption of agricultural technologies that allow sufficient production to be obtained on reduced land areas