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Статті в журналах з теми "Commercial policy Econometric models"
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DeYoung, Robert, Emma Y. Peng, and Meng Yan. "Executive Compensation and Business Policy Choices at U.S. Commercial Banks." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 48, no. 1 (January 8, 2013): 165–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0022109012000646.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
AbstractWe show that contractual risk-taking incentives for chief executive officers (CEOs) increased at large U.S. commercial banks around 2000, when industry deregulation expanded these banks’ growth opportunities. Our econometric models indicate that CEOs responded positively to these incentives, especially at the larger banks best able to take advantage of these opportunities. Our results also suggest that bank boards responded to higher-than-average levels of risk by moderating CEO risk-taking incentives; however, this feedback effect is absent at the very largest banks with strong growth opportunities and a history of highly aggressive risk-taking incentives.
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Salem, Mohamed, and Andrew Baum. "Determinants of foreign direct real estate investment in selected MENA countries." Journal of Property Investment & Finance 34, no. 2 (March 7, 2016): 116–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jpif-06-2015-0042.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify the main determinants of foreign direct real estate investments (foreign direct investment (FDI)) in selected Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries. Design/methodology/approach – The empirical work of this study is an econometric analysis of FDI in the commercial real estate sector for eight MENA markets, namely Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Tunisia and the UAE during the period 2003-2009. The econometric analysis is carried out using the pooled Tobit model technique for panel data. Findings – The paper finds that both country-specific factors and real estate sector-specific variables consistently support hypotheses explaining commercial real estate-related FDI, and find evidence that political stability explains why some selected MENA countries attract more real estate investments than other MENA countries. Practical implications – The findings should be seriously considered in any policy making effort on the part of governments in the region. Originality/value – The authors contribute to the existing literature in many ways. First, the study aims to develop econometric models, using both conventional and unique variables, to be generalised and applied to any developed or emerging market. The study applies relevant techniques in estimating the models, including the pooled Tobit model. Second, the research studies eight selected MENA real estate markets from 2003 to 2009, a timeframe and geography not examined in previous published empirical work on commercial real estate investments. Lastly, and for the first time in real estate literature, the study applies the location dimension of Dunning’s OLI paradigm as a theoretical explanation for the behaviour of foreign investors in commercial real estate towards the selected MENA markets.
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Ishaq, Maryam, Asad Ali, and Ismat Nasim. "Interest Spread and the Banking Sector Profitability- An Empirical Investigation for Pakistan." Review of Education, Administration & Law 5, no. 3 (September 30, 2022): 355–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.47067/real.v5i3.260.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The paper is an empirical exploration around the commercial banks’ interest spread and the profitability performance for Pakistani banking industry. Earlier studies have evidently proven the sensitivity of commercial banks financial performance towards the gap between their deposit rate and the lending rate. The present study therefore aims at validating (invalidating) the subject relationship using advance time-series econometric procedures. The study attempts to yield a robust statistical analysis since three different measures of banks’ profitability are employed for the purpose of econometric testing i.e. return on assets, return on equity and earnings per share. The study sample comprises seven major participants from commercial banking sector of Pakistan and the sample study period rangers from year 2002 to 2018. From the series of robust regression models, Newey-West Hetroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent (HAC) estimator is used to test the hypothesized relationship. Valid statistical support is yielded in case of all three measures of profitability; however, return on assets as indicator of profitability receives highest amount of statistical support. The results hold strong policy implications for commercial banking sector of the country, calling for wise management decisions whilst deciding the deposit and the lending and rates since they are key to determining the interest spread observed by a bank which in return determines its profitability margins.
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Morina, Fisnik, and Ercan Özen. "Does the Commercial Bank's Loans Affect Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence for the Real Sector Economy in Kosovo (2005-2018)." International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning 15, no. 8 (December 22, 2020): 1205–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.18280/ijsdp.150807.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The study aims to analyze the impact of credit policies of commercial banks on financing and development of the real sector of Kosovo's economy. In this context, some statistical and econometric models and techniques have been applied in order to test the impact of commercial banks through the lending process in the development of the real sector of Kosovo's economy for the period 2005-2018, using time series on a monthly basis. The empirical results of this study prove that commercial banks through the lending process have had a positive substantive impact on the development of the real sector in the economy of Kosovo. Economic development cannot happen without the development of the private sector and banks are the ones who can help and are helping in this regard. This study will provide a theoretical and practical analysis of contemporary forms of real sector lending, as well as, the importance of credit policy reform in financing and developing this sector and provide empirical evidence of how much bank loans have affected in the development of the real sector of Kosovo's economy.
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Świtała, Filip, Iwona Kowalska, and Karolina Malajkat. "Size of Banks as a Factor Which Impacts the Efficiency of the Bank Lending Channel." e-Finanse 16, no. 1 (March 1, 2020): 36–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/fiqf-2020-0005.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
AbstractIn most economies the banking sector plays the major role in the financial system. Therefore, it is of great importance to analyse and understand the mechanism of transmission of monetary policy and its impact on the banking sector. One of the possible repercussions of changing the level of official interest rates is the ability to influence the size of bank lending, by means of the bank lending channel. The key aspect our research is a thorough understanding of the functioning of the bank lending channel, with the main goal of this study being an examination of the efficiency of monetary policy transmission through the bank lending channel depending on the size of banks in the sector. This paper examines the abovementioned relation using annual data from 1995-2015 by 1709 commercial and cooperative banks from 27 EU countries and analyzing them in various econometric models. The results indicate that there is a positive impact of a bank’s size on loan growth (defined as the bank size increases, the impact of changes in interest rates in the bank’s lending policy is getting smaller), however, interaction between the variables of size and the interest rate, was proved to be insignificant (in the group of all analysed banks, as well as in commercial and cooperative banks separately).
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Nguyen, Thuy Thu, Hai Hong Ho, Duy Van Nguyen, Anh Cam Pham, and Trang Thu Nguyen. "The Effects of Business Model on Bank’s Stability." International Journal of Financial Studies 9, no. 3 (August 26, 2021): 46. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijfs9030046.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The literature shows little evidence of the effects of business models upon the volatility of banks in developing and fast-growing economies. Hence, this study examines the effects of business model choice on the stability of banks in ASEAN countries. Using GMM and other robust econometric methods on the sample of 99 joint stock commercial banks, we find significant and negative impacts of a diversification model in which banks shift toward non-interest and fees-based activities. We also find that the impacts are different between two groups of countries. For Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines, the diversification entails negative impacts on stability while demonstrating positive impacts for Thailand and Malaysia. Based on these findings, we draw policy implications for more sustainable development in the ASEAN banking business.
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Dixon, Tim. "Commercial property retrofitting." Journal of Property Investment & Finance 32, no. 4 (July 1, 2014): 443–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jpif-02-2014-0016.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Purpose – Progress in retrofitting the UK's commercial properties continues to be slow and fragmented. New research from the UK and USA suggests that radical changes are needed to drive large-scale retrofitting, and that new and innovative models of financing can create new opportunities. The purpose of this paper is to offer insights into the terminology of retrofit and the changes in UK policy and practice that are needed to scale up activity in the sector. Design/methodology/approach – The paper reviews and synthesises key published research into commercial property retrofitting in the UK and USA and also draws on policy and practice from the EU and Australia. Findings – The paper provides a definition of “retrofit”, and compares and contrasts this with “refurbishment” and “renovation” in an international context. The paper summarises key findings from recent research and suggests that there are a number of policy and practice measures which need to be implemented in the UK for commercial retrofitting to succeed at scale. These include improved funding vehicles for retrofit; better transparency in actual energy performance; and consistency in measurement, verification and assessment standards. Practical implications – Policy and practice in the UK needs to change if large-scale commercial property retrofit is to be rolled out successfully. This requires mandatory legislation underpinned by incentives and penalties for non-compliance. Originality/value – This paper synthesises recent research to provide a set of policy and practice recommendations which draw on international experience, and can assist on implementation in the UK.
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Thathsarani, US, Jianguo Wei, and GRSRC Samaraweera. "Financial Inclusion’s Role in Economic Growth and Human Capital in South Asia: An Econometric Approach." Sustainability 13, no. 8 (April 13, 2021): 4303. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13084303.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Many of the 2030 sustainable development goals have targeted the strengthening of financial inclusion, which is currently a key policy priority on the agendas of most governments in developing nations. The process of facilitating banking and financial services for individuals is called financial inclusion, which supports growth and the broader development goals of an economy. Although economic growth and human capital development indices have been analyzed using different proxy variables, insufficient attention has been paid to constructing a composite index for measuring this to achieve greater sustainability in terms of the economy, communities, and the environment. This study sought to address this gap using secondary data from eight countries in South Asia from 2004 to 2018. A financial inclusion index was developed through principal component analysis using an econometric approach of panel data with vector error correction models and a Granger causality test. As per the results of the study, financial inclusion has a long-run impact on human capital development in South Asian countries, whereas it has a short-run positive impact on economic growth. Domestic credits to the private sector also impact the short-run growth and human capital development in the economy. This ensures the confidence of vulnerable communities in their economy, as well as information management, and allows for quality enhancements of transactions with fewer environmental impacts. Government intervention to improve access to financial services, including ATMs and commercial banking, is one policy allowing digital finance to accelerate the achievement of sustainable development goals in South Asian countries.
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Jansson, Torbjörn, and Staffan Waldo. "Managing Marine Mammals and Fisheries: A Calibrated Programming Model for the Seal-Fishery Interaction in Sweden." Environmental and Resource Economics 81, no. 3 (December 27, 2021): 501–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10640-021-00637-y.
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AbstractThis paper develops a model based on the concept of Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) that is useful for ex-ante analyses of how policy measures affect commercial fisheries. PMP models are frequently used in agriculture, but rarely for analyzing fisheries. Fisheries often face a large set of constraints such as effort regulations and catch quotas of which some might be binding and others not. An econometric approach is developed for calibrating models with both binding and non-binding constraints. The interaction between seals and Swedish fisheries is used as an empirical application. Seal interaction is modeled as seals predating fish from passive gear (nets and hooks), which is primarily an issue for the coastal fishery. The model contains 24 fleet segments involved in 247 different fishing activities in 2012. The results show that if no further management action is taken, fisheries using passive gear will reduce their activities from about 46 000 days at sea per year to about 41 000 and reducing their economic performance from losses of about 2 million Euros to about 3.3 million. The impact from seals can be reduced by reducing the seal population or providing economic compensation.
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Uz, Dilek, and Steven Buck. "Comparing Water Use Forecasting Model Selection Criteria: The Case of Commercial, Institutional, and Industrial Sector in Southern California." Sustainability 12, no. 10 (May 13, 2020): 3995. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12103995.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The United States is one of the largest per capita water withdrawers in the world, and certain parts of it, especially the western region, have long experienced water scarcity. Historically, the U.S. relied on large water infrastructure investments and planning to solve its water scarcity problems. These large-scale investments as well as water planning activities rely on water forecast studies conducted by water managing agencies. These forecasts, while key to the sustainable management of water, are usually done using historical growth extrapolation, conventional econometric approaches, or legacy software packages and often do not utilize methods common in the field of statistical learning. The objective of this study is to illustrate the extent to which forecast outcomes for commercial, institutional and industrial water use may be improved with a relatively simple adjustment to forecast model selection. To do so, we estimate over 352 thousand regression models with retailer level panel data from the largest utility in the U.S., featuring a rich set of variables to model commercial, institutional, and industrial water use in Southern California. Out-of-sample forecasting performances of those models that rank within the top 5% based on various in- and out-of-sample goodness-of-fit criteria were compared. We demonstrate that models with the best in-sample fit yeild, on average, larger forecast errors for out-of-sample forecast exercises and are subject to a significant degree of variation in forecasts. We find that out-of-sample forecast error and the variability in the forecast values can be reduced by an order of magnitude with a relatively straightforward change in the model selection criteria even when the forecast modelers do not have access to “big data” or utilize state-of-the-art machine learning techniques.
Дисертації з теми "Commercial policy Econometric models"
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Barkley, David L., and Peter E. Helander. "The Role of Commercial Bank Loans in Nonmetropolitan Economic Development." College of Agriculture, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ), 1985. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/602137.
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Berger, Nicholas. "Modelling structural and policy changes in the world wine market into the 21st century." Title page, contents and abstract only, 2000. http://web4.library.adelaide.edu.au/theses/09ECM/09ecmb496.pdf.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Includes bibliographical references. Addresses the question of what an economic model of the world wine market suggests will happen to wine production, consumption, trade and prices in various regions in the early 21st century. A subsidiary issue is what difference would global or European regional wine liberalisation make to that outlook, according to such a model. Accompanying CD-ROM comprises spreadsheet written by Nick Berger, November 2000, for the Windows and Office97 versions of Excel; a seven region world wine model (WWM7) - base version projecting the world wine market 1996-2005 as a non-linear Armington model. System requirements for accompanying CD-ROM: IBM compatible computer ; Microsoft Excel 97 or later.
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Bokan, Nikola. "On taxes, labour market distortions and product imperfections." Thesis, University of St Andrews, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10023/3053.
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This thesis aims to provide new and useful insights into the effects that various tax, labour and product market reforms have on the overall economic performance. Additionally, it aims also to provide insights about the optimal monetary and fiscal policy behaviour within the economy characterized with various real labour market frictions. We analyze the benefits of tax reforms and their effectiveness relative to product or other labour market reforms. A general equilibrium model with imperfect competition, wage bargaining and different forms of tax distortions is applied in order to analyze these issues. We find that structural reforms imply short run costs but long run gains; that the long run gains outweigh the short run costs; and that the financing of such reforms will be the main stumbling block. We also find that the effectiveness of various reform instruments depends on the policy maker's ultimate objective. More precisely, tax reforms are more effective for welfare gains, but market liberalization is more valuable for generating employment. In order to advance our understanding of the tax and product market reform processes, we then develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which incorporates search-matching frictions, costly ring and endogenous job destruction decisions, as well as a distortionary progressive wage and a at payroll tax. We confirm the negative effects of marginal tax distortions on the overall economic performance. We also find a positive effect of an increase in the wage tax progressivity and product market liberalization on employment, output and consumption. Following a positive technology shock, the volatility of employment, output and consumption turns out to be lower in the reformed economy, whereas the impact effect on inflation is more pronounced. Following a positive government spending shock the volatility of employment, output and consumption is again lower in the reformed economy, but the inflation response is stronger over the whole adjustment path. We also find detrimental effects on employment and output of a tax reform which keeps the marginal tax wedge unchanged by partially offsetting a decrease in the payroll tax by an increase in the wage tax rate. If this reform is anticipated one period in advance the negative effects remain all over the transition path. We investigate the optimal monetary and fiscal policy implication of the New-Keynesian setup enriched with search-matching frictions. We show that the optimal policy features deviation from strict price stability, and that the Ramsey planner uses both inflation and taxes in order to fully exploit the benefits of the productivity increase following a positive productivity shock. We also find that the optimal tax rate and government liabilities inherit the time series properties of the underlying shocks. Moreover, we identify a certain degree of overshooting in inflation and tax rates following a positive productivity shock, and a certain degree of undershooting following a positive government spending shock as a consequence of the assumed commitment of policy maker.
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Agama, Laurie-Ann Cecilia. "Trade and economic growth : an econometric investigation of southern Africa." Thesis, McGill University, 2001. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=37859.
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The objective of this dissertation is to examine the effect of recent trade policy changes on trade and economic growth for southern Africa. This is accomplished by using a dynamic panel data modeling approach to examine the effect of openness on economic growth during the 1990s. The gravity model and Tobit maximum likelihood estimation are used to examine the effect of trade policy changes and two types of spatial separation on the likelihood of trade. The two types of spatial separation are distance and preferential trading arrangements. This study uses sophisticated econometric techniques and a more complete sample of countries than previous studies on southern Africa.The results show that distance impedes the likelihood of trade. Trade policy changes and the preferential trading arrangements, SADC and COMESA, enhanced trade in southern Africa during the 1990s. The trade stimulating effect was larger for SADC membership. However, some members benefited much more from the existence of preferential relations than other members. The study results indicate that openness affects economic growth.
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Venditti, Fabrizio. "Essays on models with time-varying parameters for forecasting and policy analysis." Thesis, Queen Mary, University of London, 2017. http://qmro.qmul.ac.uk/xmlui/handle/123456789/24868.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The aim of this thesis is the development and the application of econometric models with time-varying parameters in a policy environment. The popularity of these methods has run in parallel with advances in computing power, which has made feasible estimation methods that until the late '90s would have been unfeasible. Bayesian methods, in particular, benefitted from these technological advances, as sampling from complicated posterior distributions of the model parameters became less and less time-consuming. Building on the seminal work by Carter and Kohn (1994) and Jacquier, Polson, and Rossi (1994), bayesian algorithms for estimating Vector Autoregressions (VARs) with drifting coefficients and volatility were independently derived by Cogley and Sargent (2005) and Primiceri (2005). Despite their increased popularity, bayesian methods still suffer from some limitations, from both a theoretical and a practical viewpoint. First, they typically assume that parameters evolve as independent driftless random walks. It is therefore unclear whether the output that one obtains from these estimators is accurate when the model parameters are generated by a different stochastic process. Second, some computational limitations remain as only a limited number of time series can be jointly modeled in this environment. These shortcomings have prompted a new line of research that uses non-parametric methods to estimate random time-varying coefficients models. Giraitis, Kapetanios, and Yates (2014) develop kernel estimators for autoregressive models with random time-varying coefficients and derive the conditions under which such estimators consistently recover the true path of the model coefficients. The method has been suitably adapted by Giraitis, Kapetanios, and Yates (2012) to a multivariate context. In this thesis I make use of both bayesian and non-parametric methods, adapting them (and in some cases extending them) to answer some of the research questions that, as a Central Bank economist, I have been tackling in the past five years. The variety of empirical exercises proposed throughout the work testifies the wide range of applicability of these models, be it in the area of macroeconomic forecasting (both at short and long horizons) or in the investigation of structural change in the relationship among macroeconomic variables. The first chapter develops a mixed frequency dynamic factor model in which the disturbances of both the latent common factor and of the idiosyncratic components have time varying stochastic volatility. The model is used to investigate business cycle dynamics in the euro area, and to perform point and density forecast. The main result is that introducing stochastic volatility in the model contributes to an improvement in both point and density forecast accuracy. Chapter 2 introduces a nonparametric estimation method for a large Vector Autoregression (VAR) with time-varying parameters. The estimators and their asymptotic distributions are available in closed form. This makes the method computationally efficient and capable of handling information sets as large as those typically handled by factor models and Factor Augmented VARs (FAVAR). When applied to the problem of forecasting key macroeconomic variables, the method outperforms constant parameter benchmarks and large Bayesian VARs with time-varying parameters. The tool is also used for structural analysis to study the time-varying effects of oil price innovations on sectorial U.S. industrial output. Chapter 3 uses a bayesian VAR to provide novel evidence on changes in the relationship between the real price of oil and real exports in the euro area. By combining robust predictions on the sign of the impulse responses obtained from a theoretical model with restrictions on the slope of the oil demand and oil supply curves, oil supply and foreign productivity shocks are identified. The main finding is that from the 1980s onwards the relationship between oil prices and euro area exports has become less negative conditional on oil supply shortfalls and more positive conditional on foreign productivity shocks. A general equilibrium model is used to shed some light on the plausible reasons for these changes. Chapter 4 investigates the failure of conventional constant parameter models in anticipating the sharp fall in inflation in the euro area in 2013- 2014. This forecasting failure can be partly attributed to a break in the elasticity of inflation to the output gap. Using structural break tests and non-parametric time varying parameter models this study shows that this elasticity has indeed increased substantially after 2013. Two structural interpretations of this finding are offered. The first is that the increase in the cyclicality of inflation has stemmed from lower nominal rigidities or weaker strategic complementarity in price setting. A second possibility is that real time output gap estimates are understating the amount of spare capacity in the economy. I estimate that, in order to reconcile the observed fall in inflation with the historical correlation between consumer prices and the business cycle, the output gap should be wider by around one third.
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Enzinger, Sharn Emma 1973. "The economic impact of greenhouse policy upon the Australian electricity industry : an applied general equilibrium analysis." Monash University, Centre of Policy Studies, 2001. http://arrow.monash.edu.au/hdl/1959.1/8383.
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Azam, Mohammad Nurul 1957. "Modelling and forecasting in the presence of structural change in the linear regression model." Monash University, Dept. of Econometrics and Business Statistics, 2001. http://arrow.monash.edu.au/hdl/1959.1/9152.
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Ben-Belhassen, Boubaker. "Econometric models of the Argentine cereal economy : a focus on policy simulation analysis /." free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 1997. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p9842508.
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Aboagye, Anthony Q. Q. "Financial flows, macroeconomic policy and the agricultural sector in Sub-Saharan Africa." Thesis, McGill University, 1998. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=35672.
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This thesis focuses on the effects of development assistance (ODA), private foreign commercial capital (PFX), domestic savings (SAV), the openness of the economy and producer prices on agricultural output, and on export and domestic shares of agricultural output in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This study uses panel data spanning 27 countries and the period 1970 to 1993.The production function is a Cobb-Douglas type. Static export and domestic share equations are derived from a specification of the agricultural gross domestic product function. Transformed auto-regressive distributed-lag versions of the static share models are used to investigate long-run dynamics, persistence and implementation lags in the share response model.
Agricultural output is affected as follows. ODA, PFX and SAV have small positive or negative impact depending on agricultural region or economic policy environment. The impact of openness of the economy is negative in all agricultural regions, however, there is evidence of positive effect of openness within improved policy environment. None of these effects are statistically significant.
Export share is affected as follows. ODA, PFX and SAV have small positive impact in some agricultural regions and policy environments, both in the short-run and in the long-run. PFX is not significant anywhere. ODA is significant only when countries are grouped by policy environment in the short-run. SAV is significant in the short-run only in some regions, and significant in the long-run only in others. Openness has positive impact in the short-run. This is significant in many regions. Its long-run impact is mostly positive but not significant anywhere. The impact of producer price is mostly positive but not significant.
Efforts to encourage economic activities in rural communities such as improvements in domestic terms of trade in favor of agriculture, together with the provision of infrastructure are likely to stimulate output. Strategies to diversify and process agricultural exports in the face of falling agricultural commodity prices should be pursued.
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Boumediene, Farid Jimmy. "Determinacy and learning stability of economic policy in asymmetric monetary union models." Thesis, University of St Andrews, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10023/972.
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This thesis examines determinacy and E-stability of economic policy in monetary union models. Monetary policy takes the form of either a contemporaneous or a forecast based interest rate rule, while fiscal policy follows a contemporaneous government spending rule. In the absence of asymmetries, the results from the closed economy literature on learning are retained. However, when introducing asymmetries into monetary union frameworks, the determinacy and E-stability conditions for economic policy differ from both the closed and open economy cases. We find that a monetary union with heterogeneous price rigidities is more likely to be determinate and E-stable. Specifically, the Taylor principle, a key stability condition for the closed economy, is now relaxed. Furthermore, an interest rate rule that stabilizes the terms of trade in addition to output and inflation, is more likely to induce determinacy and local stability under RLS learning. If monetary policy is sufficiently aggressive in stabilizing the terms of trade, then determinacy and E-stability of the union economy can be achieved without direct stabilization of output and inflation. A fiscal policy rule that supports demand for domestic goods following a shock to competitiveness, can destabilize the union economy regardless of the interest rate rule employed by the union central bank. In this case, determinacy and E-stability conditions have to be simultaneously and independently met by both fiscal and monetary policy for the union economy to be stable. When fiscal policy instead stabilizes domestic output gaps while monetary policy stabilizes union output and inflation, fiscal policy directly affects the stability of monetary policy. A contemporaneous monetary policy rule has to be more aggressive to satisfy the Taylor principle, the more aggressive fiscal policy is. On the other hand, when monetary policy is forward looking, an aggressive fiscal policy rule can help induce determinacy.
Книги з теми "Commercial policy Econometric models"
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E, Baldwin Robert, and National Bureau of Economic Research., eds. Trade policy issues and empirical analysis. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1988.
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Staiger, Robert W. Rules and discretion in trade policy. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1988.
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Harrison, Ann E. The effects of trade policy reform: What do we really know? Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1995.
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Balassa, Bela A. Changing trade patterns in manufactured goods: An econometric investigation. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1988.
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Njinkeu, Dominique. Politiques commerciales: Cadres d'analyse et simulation en équilibre général pour le Cameroun. Dakar, Sénégal: Réseau de recherche sur les politiques industrielles en Afrique, 1997.
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Cline, William R. American trade adjustment: The global impact. Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics, 1989.
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Gawande, Kishore S. Foreign lobbies and US trade policy. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2004.
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Katz, Lawrence F. Can inter-industry wage differentials justify strategic trade policy? Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1988.
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David, Sapsford, and Morgan C. W, eds. The Economics of primary commodities: Models, analysis, and policy. Aldershot, Hants, England: E. Elgar, 1994.
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Frankel, Jeffrey A. The effect of monetary policy on real commodity prices. Cambridge, Mass: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2006.
Знайти повний текст джерелаЧастини книг з теми "Commercial policy Econometric models"
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Kort, John R., Joseph V. Cartwright, and Richard M. Beemiller. "Linking Regional Economic Models for Policy Analysis." In Regional Econometric Modeling, 93–124. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-3267-8_4.
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Sengupta, Jati K. "Econometric Models and Optimal Economic Policy." In Stochastic Optimization and Economic Models, 1–10. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-3085-3_1.
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Mariano, Roberto S., and Winnie M. Constantino. "An Annual Philippine Macroeconometric Model for Policy Analysis." In Econometric Models of Asian-Pacific Countries, 391–429. Tokyo: Springer Japan, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-68258-5_13.
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Kim, Soon-Gwan, and Fred L. Mannering. "Panel Data and Activity Duration Models: Econometric Alternatives and Applications." In Transportation Research, Economics and Policy, 349–73. Boston, MA: Springer US, 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-2642-8_14.
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Ventura, Livia. "The Social Enterprise Movement and the Birth of Hybrid Organisational Forms as Policy Response to the Growing Demand for Firm Altruism." In The International Handbook of Social Enterprise Law, 9–25. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-14216-1_2.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
AbstractSocial enterprise can be described as a complex and variegated phenomenon marked by different extensions and definitions according to the legal system of reference. This contribution is focused on a specific area of the social enterprise spectrum, that of the hybrid dual-purpose businesses, conceiving social enterprises as private organisations that carry out commercial activities to pursue social and environmental, as well as economic, objectives. In the past few decades, several legal systems have introduced new hybrid entities designed to adequately meet the needs of social entrepreneurs and capable of bringing together social and environmental aims with business approaches. The birth of social enterprise, with the introduction of philanthropic goals into the articles of association’s corporate purpose clause, is particularly difficult to understand through the lenses of the economic analysis of law or the neoclassical economics and its homo economicus paradigm. This study attempts to offer an interpretative key for understanding these hybrid models abandoning the classical homo economicus paradigm to embrace a reading based on behavioural law and economics and the Yale approach to the economic analysis of law, according to which altruism and beneficence should be considered as ends in themselves, as goods desired by people and for which they are willing to pay the price. In this line of reasoning, social enterprises, as a bottom-up phenomenon are the legislator’s policy response to the growing demand for firm altruism emerging from civil society.
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Curry, Edward, Andreas Metzger, Sonja Zillner, Jean-Christophe Pazzaglia, Ana García Robles, Thomas Hahn, Laure Le Bars, Milan Petkovic, and Nuria De Lama. "The European Big Data Value Ecosystem." In The Elements of Big Data Value, 3–19. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-68176-0_1.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
AbstractThe adoption of big data technology within industrial sectors facilitates organizations to gain competitive advantage. The impacts of big data go beyond the commercial world, creating significant societal impact, from improving healthcare systems to the energy-efficient operation of cities and transportation infrastructure, to increasing the transparency and efficiency of public administration. In order to exploit the potential of big data to create value for society, citizens and businesses, Europe needs to embrace new technology, applications, use cases and business models within and across various sectors and domains. In the early part of the 2010s, a clear strategy centring around the notion of the European Big Data Value Ecosystem started to take form with the aim of increasing the competitiveness of European industries through a data ecosystem which tackles the fundamental elements of big data value, including the ecosystem, research and innovation, business, policy and regulation, and the emerging elements of data-driven AI and common European data spaces. This chapter describes the big data value ecosystem and its strategic importance. It details the challenges of creating this ecosystem and outlines the vision and strategy of the Big Data Value Public-Private Partnership and the Big Data Value Association, which together formed the core of the ecosystem, to make Europe the world leader in the creation of big data value. Finally, it details the elements of big data value which were addressed to realise this vision.
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Kienzle, Josef, Brian Sims, and Weldone Mutai. "Sustainable agricultural mechanization and commercialization for widespread adoption of conservation agriculture systems in Africa." In Conservation agriculture in Africa: climate smart agricultural development, 382–401. Wallingford: CABI, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1079/9781789245745.0024.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract To confront the situations of climate crisis, natural resource degradation and rising populations, farmers need access to modern sustainable agricultural technologies, especially Conservation Agriculture (CA) and sustainable agricultural mechanization (SAM). Without such access, the UN's SDGs will not be met in their entirety. The implications of mechanizing CA are discussed for both smallholder and larger-scale farmers. Constraints, issues and options are reviewed and the need for commercial, private sector, CA mechanization service provision for smallholders is identified. The Framework for Sustainable Agricultural Mechanization for Africa (SAMA) is a key pillar for achieving Aspiration 1 (a prosperous Africa based on inclusive growth and sustainable development) of the African Union's (AU) Agenda 2063; and SDG 2 (ending hunger and achieving food security). The move towards commercialization of smallholder agriculture in Africa is seen as an inevitable reality in the medium term. It is also a necessary prerequisite for the adoption of SAM, which is being actively promoted in Africa, both at the level of the AU and by national governments, research centres, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and private-sector agricultural machinery companies. The policy dimensions of promoting SAM are discussed from the public and private-sector perspectives. A forward look identifies novel business models for sustainable mechanization services, an increasing application of information technology (IT) and the (longer term) potential for drones and robotics. The conclusion is that CA and SAM are essential ways forward to answer Africa's needs for sustainable food production while engaging young entrepreneurs in the provision of mechanization services using IT, digital tools and precision equipment.
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Ossa, R. "Quantitative Models of Commercial Policy." In Handbook of Commercial Policy, 207–59. Elsevier, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/bs.hescop.2016.04.003.
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"Energy conservation and economic performance in Japan: an econometric approach." In Models for Energy Policy, 211–27. Routledge, 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9780203982525-27.
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Leamer, Edward E., and Robert M. Stern. "Forecasting and Policy Analysis with Econometric Models." In Quantitative International Economics, 108–42. Routledge, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781315127897-6.
Повний текст джерелаТези доповідей конференцій з теми "Commercial policy Econometric models"
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Lleshaj, Llesh. "Volatility Estimation of Euribor and Equilibrium Forecasting." In 7th International Scientific Conference ERAZ - Knowledge Based Sustainable Development. Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans, Belgrade, Serbia, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.31410/eraz.2021.171.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Euribor rates (Euro Interbank Offered Rate) rates are considered to be the most important reference rates in the European money market. The interest rates do provide the basis for the price and interest rates of all kinds of financial products like interest rate swaps, interest rate futures, saving accounts and mortgages. Since September 2014, this index has performed with negative rates. In recent years, several European central banks have imposed negative interest rates on commercial banks, as the only way to stimulate their nations’ economies. Under these circumstances, the purpose of this study is to estimate the gap of the negative rates which are still increasing constantly. This fact puts in question the financial stability in many countries and the effect of monetary policy on stimulating economic growth around European countries. According to the daily data 2016 - 2021, this study has analyzed the volatility of the Euribor index related to efficient market hypothesis and volatility clustering. Applying advanced volatility econometric methods, GARCH volatility models are derived and the long-run equilibrium is predicted. Practical Implications are related to the empirical impacts that ought to be taken into consideration by the banking sector and other financial institutions to make decisions with the Euribor index.
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Ozolina, Velga, and Astra Auzina-Emsina. "Macroeconometric Input-Output Model For Transport Sector Analysis." In 35th ECMS International Conference on Modelling and Simulation. ECMS, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.7148/2021-0082.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Effective government transport policy can be based only on realistic data, sophisticated and detailed transport sector analysis, and productive modelling. The aim of the paper is to demonstrate the main elements used to develop a relatively small macro-economic input-output model with the emphasis on transport for one European Union (EU) country. Transport sector faces similar problems in various countries linked with emissions, transport flows, road accidents and other issues hence appropriate modelling tool should be selected. The model presented in this article consists of econometric and input-output relations. The research analyses and examines three scenarios and stresses the importance of the transport investment not only for development of the transport sector, but also for the economic development in general. The scenarios imply zero, 9 million and 6.7 million additional investment in transport sector eligible to the EU funding. As the result of additional investment, GDP recovers faster leading to 0.3-1.7%points faster growth rates as compared to the base scenario with no additional investment leading to faster cohesion with the average EU level, as well as higher number and turnover of passengers in the public and commercial transport, while the number of passenger cars is lower. The model can also be applied to study regional development, if it is possible to distinguish, which regions will benefit from the investment, as well as influence on fuel consumption and CO2 emissions, if the investments are targeted to specific means of transport.
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Perera, Treshani. "Forecasting the Performance of Commercial Property Market: Beyond the Primary Reliance on Econometric Models." In 25th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. European Real Estate Society, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.15396/eres2016_91.
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Mattas, Konstantinos, Giovanni Albano, and Biagio Ciuffo. "Traffic impacts of commercial Adaptive Cruise Control time-gap policy." In 2021 7th International Conference on Models and Technologies for Intelligent Transportation Systems (MT-ITS). IEEE, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/mt-its49943.2021.9529334.
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Shubat, Oksana, and Anna Bagirova. "The Use Of Econometric Models In The Study Of Demographic Policy Measures (Based On The Example Of Fertility Stimulation In Russia)." In 31st Conference on Modelling and Simulation. ECMS, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.7148/2017-0047.
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Koşan, Naime İrem, and Sudi Apak. "Trade Openness and Macroeconomic Policy in OECD Countries." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c06.01373.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Trade openness has been subject to an important issue many studies in literature. It allows us to analyze potential trade as a percentage of gross domestic product. Total value of international trade in goods and services shows the countries’ integration into the world economy. Generally, small countries are more integrated because of their dependency on imports. On the other hand, there many variables which effects trade integration. Our study focuses on to analyze the effects on trade openness and make inferences for OECD countries.
In this paper we aim to examine the relationship between trade openness and macro-economic indicators in OECD countries. To analyze the relationship, we used panel data regression analysis. Data obtained from World Bank, The Heritage Foundation and United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The panel data covers 2000-2013 periods and 33 countries. The analysis made through the Stata econometric packet program. We predicted pooled, fixed effects and random effects panel data models and analyzed them.
It has been found that gross domestic savings, investment freedom, and unemployment rate are statistically significant. The results found in this paper show that investment freedom and gross domestic savings have positive effect on trade openness as we expected. On the other hand, unemployment rate has positive effect on trade openness. These findings have important policy implications for OECD countries. Our interpretation of these findings is that, integration to world economy has generally positive effects for macroeconomic factors in OECD countries, but it should be limited.
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Cho, Heejin, Rogelio Luck, Pedro J. Mago, and Louay M. Chamra. "Assessment of CHP System Performance With Commercial Building Benchmark Models in Different U.S. Climate Zones." In ASME 2009 3rd International Conference on Energy Sustainability collocated with the Heat Transfer and InterPACK09 Conferences. ASMEDC, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/es2009-90094.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Combined Cooling, Heating, and Power (CHP) systems have been widely recognized as an alternative for electric and thermal energy generation because of their outstanding energy efficiency, reduced environmental emissions, and relative independence from centralized power grids. The performance of CHP systems depends on the type of buildings and climate conditions. Recently the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has developed a set of standard benchmark building models. According to the DOE [1], these models cover approximately 70% of the commercial building energy use. This paper evaluates and discusses the simulations of the performance of CHP systems for several commercial building benchmark models in 16 locations representing the U.S. climate zones described in the DOE report. The evaluation has been carried out using an optimal energy dispatch algorithm. The performance index for the optimization process is varied in order to investigate the impact of optimizing operational cost, primary energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emission. The results of this simulation can be used as a guideline to end-users when deciding on energy alternatives for their buildings or by policy makers deciding on regulations for cost, primary energy, or carbon dioxide emissions.
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Salanova Grau, Josep Maria, and Miquel Estrada Romeu. "Social optimal shifts and fares of taxi services." In CIT2016. Congreso de Ingeniería del Transporte. Valencia: Universitat Politècnica València, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.4995/cit2016.2016.3254.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This paper presents a mathematical model for supporting the decision and policy making related to the optimal determination of shifts and fares of taxi services in a major city. The model is based on the system’s generalized cost function and uses continuous approximations and geometric probabilities for estimating the key performance indicators of the taxi market, which are waiting and access time for the customers (in-vehicle travel time does not depend on the offer side) and benefits for the drivers. The model is based on an econometric model with the inclusion of an elastic demand, which allows the estimation of the optimal values for the two decision variables of the problem: fare structure and the taxi fleet size. The model also accounts for a full-day time period instead of the one-hour time frame models used in most of the taxi models, which allows for providing insights on the daily duration and distribution of the shifts that should be defined by the policy makers.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4995/CIT2016.2016.3254
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FREIMANIS, Kristaps, and Maija ŠENFELDE. "METHODOLOGY FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF REGULATION COSTS IN THE BANKING MARKET." In International Scientific Conference „Contemporary Issues in Business, Management and Economics Engineering". Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/cibmee.2021.600.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Purpose – In the field of the economics’ regulation researchers so far have built the conceptual framework showing how the deadweight loss of market failures decrease and costs of the government intervention increase with the increased level of the government intervention. In order to quantify relationships between the level of intervention, intervention costs and the deadweight loss with econometric models it is important to understand how to quantify the regulation costs as a part of intervention costs. The objective of the research presented in this paper is to find the appropriate methodology for the quantification of the regulation costs in the banking market. Research methodology – literature review (regarding theories), mathematical methods for quantification and econometric methods for validation purposes. Findings – research shows that in the assessment of regulation costs three main stakeholders should be included – microprudential regulator, macroprudential regulator and financial regulation’s policy maker. Research presents their cost assessment methodology. Its validation shows that in general methodology works as expected, i.e., higher government intervention levels lead to higher regulation costs, however this general rule has exceptions, which in authors’ view indicates that other factors have an impact on the cost levels. Research limitations – research shows how to assess the costs of main stakeholders based on the publicly available information. More precise view could be obtained if in the cooperation with authorities more details on certain cost items are received. Practical implications – research results will be used to assess all government intervention costs (other positions include compliance costs and other indirect costs) and finalize the quantification of the framework. Quantified framework could be used for more precise policy making regarding the regulation of the banking market. Originality/Value – research shows how to quantify the regulation costs of the banking market as currently there are only conceptual ideas.
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McDonald, Dale B., and Joseph O. Falade. "Parameter Identification in Ecological Systems via Discontinuous and Singular Control Regimes." In ASME 2012 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece2012-86063.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Policy decisions regarding commercial harvesting of aquatic species by (typically governmental) regulatory agencies are often based in part upon field data, simulation results, and mathematical models. Regulatory agencies may limit or expand seasons, determine total harvest allowed, increase or decrease licensure fees, and raise or lower taxation rates in response to the state of the ecological system. Ultimately, the regulatory agency uses such measures to ensure viable populations in an attempt to balance ecosystem health and benefits for society. Such decisions impact commercial fishing ventures affecting the nature of harvesting efforts and their intensity. Conclusions drawn from mathematical models of ecological systems, and derived simulation results which affect this reality are highly dependent upon the validity of information available. Knowledge or estimates of critical parameters such as intrinsic growth rate, carrying capacity, etc. and dynamic variables such as biomass levels dictate the usefulness of analytical and numerical analyses. The purpose of this treatment is to illustrate that control laws applied to mathematical models of species dynamics may be used to discern estimates of parameters that inherently exist in such models in an effort to provide more valuable information upon which to base policy decisions. Dynamic models of both single-species evolution and predator-prey interactions are examined.
Звіти організацій з теми "Commercial policy Econometric models"
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Ossa, Ralph. Quantitative Models of Commercial Policy. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, March 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w22062.
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Elshurafa, Amro, Hatem Al Atawi, Fakhri Hasanov, and Frank Felder. Cost, Emission, and Macroeconomic Implications of Diesel Displacement in the Saudi Agricultural Sector: Options and Policy Insights. King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, August 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.30573/ks--2022-dp03.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The Saudi agricultural sector relies on diesel for irrigation, which is provided to farmers at a much lower price than the average global price, implying significant opportunity costs. With the aid of soft-coupled power and macro-econometric models, we assess the cost and macroeconomic implications of electrifying irrigation activities in the Saudi agricultural sector. Three electrification scenarios are considered: electrifying each individual farm with a dedicated hybrid renewable micro-grid, electrifying the entire farm cluster with central generation and connecting the entire cluster via transmission to the national grid. Compared with the base-case, connecting the farm cluster to the national grid is found to be the most economical but the least environmentally friendly. The renewable and central generation scenarios are costlier (compared with the transmission scenario) due, respectively, to the high battery costs and gas infrastructure needed.
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Morales, Leonardo Fabio, and Eleonora Dávalos. Diffusion of crime control benefits: Forced eradication and coca crops in Colombia. Banco de la República Colombia, November 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/dtseru.314.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
One explanation for the increasing number of hectares with coca cultivation is that eradication strategies displace coca crops but fail to completely clear affected areas. In the drug policy literature, that dynamic shifting is commonly known as the balloon effect. This study integrates georeferenced agricultural data through spatially explicit econometric models to test the hypothesis that forced eradication displace coca crops. Using annual data for 1,116 contiguous municipalities in Colombia between 2001 and 2015, we estimate a spatial Durbin model with municipal and time fixed effects. Our results suggest that, on average, aerial fumigation in a municipality diffuses the benefits of this crime control strategy to neighboring municipalities.
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Blackman, Allen, Jorge Bonilla, and Laura Villalobos. Quantifying COVID-19’s Silver Lining: Avoided Deaths from Air Quality Improvements in Bogotá. Inter-American Development Bank, November 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003787.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
In cities around the world, Covid-19 lockdowns have improved outdoor air quality, in some cases dramatically. Even if only temporary, these improvements could have longer-lasting effects on policy by making chronic air pollution more salient and boosting political pressure for change. To that end, it is important to develop objective estimates of both the air quality improvements associated with Covid-19 lockdowns and the benefits these improvements generate. We use panel data econometric models to estimate the effect of Bogotás lockdown on fine particulate pollution, epidemiological models to simulate the effect of reductions in that pollution on long-term and short-term mortality, and benefit transfer methods to estimate the monetary value of the avoided mortality. We find that in its first year of implementation, on average, Bogotás lockdown cut fine particulate pollution by more than one-fifth. However, the magnitude of that effect varied considerably over the course of the year and across the citys neighborhoods. Equivalent permanent reductions in fine particulate pollution would reduce long-term premature deaths by more than one-quarter each year, a benefit valued at $670 million per year. Finally, we estimate that in 2020-2021, the lockdown reduced short-term deaths by 31 percent, a benefit valued at $180 million.
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Brockmann, Kolja, and Nivedita Raju. NewSpace and the Commercialization of the Space Industry: Challenges for the Missile Technology Regime. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, October 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.55163/yrpy6524.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The changing nature of the space industry—particularly through its NewSpace entrants—is resulting in changes in business practices, new funding sources and capitalization models, as well as gaps in awareness and understanding of export controls. NewSpace is not only changing the nature of the space industry, but also exacerbating existing missile proliferation risks and posing challenges for the effective implementation of export controls. It therefore requires a coordinated response by the main multilateral missile export control instrument: the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). This report identifies developments, trends and possible proliferation scenarios linked to the NewSpace industry that pose possible missile proliferation risks and challenges for MTCR export controls. The report seeks to strengthen the implementation of export controls and related policy instruments through the MTCR and national measures, in order to prevent commercial space industry activities contributing to programmes for missiles and other delivery systems capable of carrying chemical, biological and nuclear weapons.
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Saville, Alan, and Caroline Wickham-Jones, eds. Palaeolithic and Mesolithic Scotland : Scottish Archaeological Research Framework Panel Report. Society for Antiquaries of Scotland, June 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.9750/scarf.06.2012.163.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Why research Palaeolithic and Mesolithic Scotland? Palaeolithic and Mesolithic archaeology sheds light on the first colonisation and subsequent early inhabitation of Scotland. It is a growing and exciting field where increasing Scottish evidence has been given wider significance in the context of European prehistory. It extends over a long period, which saw great changes, including substantial environmental transformations, and the impact of, and societal response to, climate change. The period as a whole provides the foundation for the human occupation of Scotland and is crucial for understanding prehistoric society, both for Scotland and across North-West Europe. Within the Palaeolithic and Mesolithic periods there are considerable opportunities for pioneering research. Individual projects can still have a substantial impact and there remain opportunities for pioneering discoveries including cemeteries, domestic and other structures, stratified sites, and for exploring the huge evidential potential of water-logged and underwater sites. Palaeolithic and Mesolithic archaeology also stimulates and draws upon exciting multi-disciplinary collaborations. Panel Task and Remit The panel remit was to review critically the current state of knowledge and consider promising areas of future research into the earliest prehistory of Scotland. This was undertaken with a view to improved understanding of all aspects of the colonization and inhabitation of the country by peoples practising a wholly hunter-fisher-gatherer way of life prior to the advent of farming. In so doing, it was recognised as particularly important that both environmental data (including vegetation, fauna, sea level, and landscape work) and cultural change during this period be evaluated. The resultant report, outlines the different areas of research in which archaeologists interested in early prehistory work, and highlights the research topics to which they aspire. The report is structured by theme: history of investigation; reconstruction of the environment; the nature of the archaeological record; methodologies for recreating the past; and finally, the lifestyles of past people – the latter representing both a statement of current knowledge and the ultimate aim for archaeologists; the goal of all the former sections. The document is reinforced by material on-line which provides further detail and resources. The Palaeolithic and Mesolithic panel report of ScARF is intended as a resource to be utilised, built upon, and kept updated, hopefully by those it has helped inspire and inform as well as those who follow in their footsteps. Future Research The main recommendations of the panel report can be summarized under four key headings: Visibility: Due to the considerable length of time over which sites were formed, and the predominant mobility of the population, early prehistoric remains are to be found right across the landscape, although they often survive as ephemeral traces and in low densities. Therefore, all archaeological work should take into account the expectation of Palaeolithic and Mesolithic ScARF Panel Report iv encountering early prehistoric remains. This applies equally to both commercial and research archaeology, and to amateur activity which often makes the initial discovery. This should not be seen as an obstacle, but as a benefit, and not finding such remains should be cause for question. There is no doubt that important evidence of these periods remains unrecognised in private, public, and commercial collections and there is a strong need for backlog evaluation, proper curation and analysis. The inadequate representation of Palaeolithic and Mesolithic information in existing national and local databases must be addressed. Collaboration: Multi-disciplinary, collaborative, and cross- sector approaches must be encouraged – site prospection, prediction, recognition, and contextualisation are key areas to this end. Reconstructing past environments and their chronological frameworks, and exploring submerged and buried landscapes offer existing examples of fruitful, cross-disciplinary work. Palaeolithic and Mesolithic archaeology has an important place within Quaternary science and the potential for deeply buried remains means that geoarchaeology should have a prominent role. Innovation: Research-led projects are currently making a substantial impact across all aspects of Palaeolithic and Mesolithic archaeology; a funding policy that acknowledges risk and promotes the innovation that these periods demand should be encouraged. The exploration of lesser known areas, work on different types of site, new approaches to artefacts, and the application of novel methodologies should all be promoted when engaging with the challenges of early prehistory. Tackling the ‘big questions’: Archaeologists should engage with the big questions of earliest prehistory in Scotland, including the colonisation of new land, how lifestyles in past societies were organized, the effects of and the responses to environmental change, and the transitions to new modes of life. This should be done through a holistic view of the available data, encompassing all the complexities of interpretation and developing competing and testable models. Scottish data can be used to address many of the currently topical research topics in archaeology, and will provide a springboard to a better understanding of early prehistoric life in Scotland and beyond.