Добірка наукової літератури з теми "Cellular telephone services industry"

AbstractAnalog cellular telephone service is being phased out in favor of digital wireless services, which are less accessible to people with hearing loss. As a result, audiologists can expect to receive an increasing number of inquiries from clients about using wireless telephones with hearing aids and other assistive technologies. In this article, the underlying transmission technology, telephone handset, roaming, and current solutions to accessibility problems are described. Public policy affecting the accessibility of wireless telephones to people with hearing loss is explained. Alternatives to wireless voice services are explored, and resources for information in a quickly changing industry are provided. Abbreviations: CDMA = code division multiple access, FCC = Federal Communications Commission, GSM = Global System Mobile Communications, HAC = hearing aid compatible, TDMA = time division multiple access, TTY = text telephone

Bharti Airtel Limited was a leading private sector provider of telecommunication services in India, with a customer base of 8.73 million as of July 2004. The company had two branch companies — Bharti Infotel (that dealt with fixed line, long distance, and enterprise services) and Bharti Cellular (that dealt with mobile telephone services). This case is about the six sigma implementation at Bharti Infotel. The case briefly discusses the business imperatives in the fast changing Indian telecommunications industry. The industry was a monopoly for over half a century after independence and had recently been deregulated with the private players competing with the state-owned BSNL. The industry had exploded in the recent years with increasing number of players, falling tariffs, and improving technology. Stiff competition in the industry meant that any competitive action by a company was immediately imitated by others. Therefore the only sources of competitive advantage in the industry were “quality of service” and “speed”. This case discusses the various steps in the implementation of six sigma quality management system in the company. The company had already implemented Business Process Management Systems (BPMS) and had begun monitoring their performance on the Non-Financial Parameters (NFPs). The six sigma initiative was expected to leverage on these initiatives. Following the six sigma initiative was the Knowledge Management (KM) initiative that was intended to help share the best practices and learning from the six sigma projects across the entire organization. This case highlights the contribution of the six sigma quality management initiative to the company's business strategy, and helps students analyze the process of implementing and institutionalizing the six sigma initiative. The case enables the readers to appreciate the business benefits of six sigma implementation and how it fosters innovation.

Starting with Bass's (1969) article, diffusion researchers have predominantly focused on modeling category-level sales growth and issues surrounding it. In this article, the authors propose a brand-level diffusion model and demonstrate its managerial use by applying it to the following issue: If a new brand enters a category that has not attained its peak sales, how can a practicing manager evaluate its impact on the category and on the incumbent brands? The proposed model helps the manager diagnose whether the late entrant affects the market potential and/or the diffusion speed of the category and of the incumbent brands. The authors test the model using brand-level sales data from the cellular telephone industry in multiple markets.

Along with the global telecom sector, the Indian telecom market has evolved over the past three decades. From the first generation technology in the 1990s, the telecom industry in India offered 4G services in 2012. From microwave technology it has moved into underground fibre optic cables, enhancing the quality and variety of telecom services. Ahead of several emerging markets, subscriber demand in India shifted to data from voice telephony. Subscriber base grew substantially, but average revenue per user (ARPU) has fallen significantly. Intense competition has led to consolidation in the industry. The mobile services faced market disruption from Reliance Jio (R-Jio). The latter launched a strategy of predatory pricing resulting in data wars. R-Jio’s network was based on 4G technology, while other competitors were still offering 2G- and 3G-based services. In comparison to competitors, R-Jio laid more fibre optic cables. Therefore, it could effortlessly upgrade the services offerings to 5G and other future technologies, which competitors could not match so they experienced fall in profits or outright losses. R-Jio also moved into providing fibre-to-the-home technology accompanied with ultra-high-speed internet that could provide a host of entertainment features. As a virtual knee-jerk reaction to the severity of the competitive challenge facing it, Vodafone initiated merger talks with Idea Cellular and soon achieved its culmination. This merger resulted in the largest telecom service company in India. However, Vodafone Idea Ltd.’s balance sheet was over leveraged, rendering it incapable of playing the price cutting game. Besides, it was unclear if it would be able to build the formidable infrastructure required to invest in 5G spectrum, offer superior content as well as smart devices. It soon became obvious that the merger could catapult Vodafone to the pole position in the industry but staying and flourishing there would require it to be more resourceful, imaginative and aggressive. Balesh Sharma, the CEO of Vodafone-Idea Ltd., and his top management team had to respond to the challenges the company was facing and emerge successful.

Continuous evolution of technologies and globalization have enabled international trade to be done via borderless selling and buying activities. This research underlines the relevance of ICT in impacting international trade in early member countries of ASEAN (Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand), in line with the Industry 4.0 Revolution. This study employs the examination of panel data to investigate the access to and use of ICT towards international trade. In accordance to that, the export and import of products and services are used to measure international trade. Mobile cellular subscriptions, Internet users, fixed broadband subscriptions, and fixed telephone subscriptions are all used to quantify ICT access and usage. In addition, control variables include foreign direct investment (FDI), research and development (R&D), real exchange rate, and also inflation. Government policy as the moderating variable on ICT against international trade is also discovered. As a result, this study takes a 10-year period to collect numerical data and analyse it using statistics and mathematical methodologies. Findings from the study are expected to show whether ICT has significant influence in promoting trade activities among the selected ASEAN member countries. Additionally, the study is also expected to bring some clarity on the potential role of government policy in moderating the impacts of ICT towards international trade. Overall, findings from the study would provide some insights to governments and policy makers on the crucial need to adopt ICT in daily operations to sustain trade activities. Future research direction may include expanding the scope of the countries and investigating the impacts of other types of ICT such as ICT skills and adoption.

The establishment of the Grampians After-Hours Service has led to the development of a quality framework for nurse telephone triage. The service providers believe this framework is the basis for the service?s success. While quality frameworks including critical evaluation and peer review are not new to the health industry, the development of organisational systems to improve quality in afterhours services is innovative. The framework developed is comprehensive, evidenced-based and emphasises training, protocols and documentation. It also involves a continuous and nonpunitive quality review process that operates at the individual, small group, organisation and whole-system level. The framework will continue to improve and at this time provides a foundation for discussion and further application in the pursuit of quality improvement in rural after-hours health services.

Firms engage in foggy pricing when the menu of tariff options aims at profiting from consumer mistakes. The analysis of this paper concludes that the transition from monopoly to competition in the early US cellular telephone industry does not generally foster the use of such deceptive strategies. I offer three alternative measures to account for the fogginess of the menu of options offered by cellular carriers. All results are robust to the existence of uncertainty regarding future consumption at the time of choosing a particular tariff option, as well as to consumers' heterogeneity with respect to cellular telephone usage. (JEL D03, L11, L12, L13, L96)

In recent years, the mobile phone has been used as a tool to conduct business in many areas. The insufficient number of fixed wireless services has created an opportunity for the entry of mobile phone systems into the market to provide telecommunication sevice in Thailand and Hong Kong. Mobile phone use has been growing dramatically during the past ten years as a result of the high rate of economic growth.

The subject of this thesis is a group of emergent leading firms in developing countries pursuing a ‘dual frontier', achieving technology supremacy and establishing market autonomy, and entering a newly emerging market in the context of the latter half of the 20th century. Whilst the previous literature on catching-up and transition generally centres on the area of technological development of latecomer firms, this thesis extends the scope of analysis to a broader issue of technological development and marketing strategies of latecomer firms in transition. The thesis builds upon two different streams of literature: first the catching-up process in latecomer firms for the theoretical and empirical rationales, and second the boundaries of a firm and inter-firm coordination in technological frontier firms for the theoretical guidance to a systematic analysis. Using industry case studies of the Korean mobile handset manufacturers Samsung and LG Electronics, the thesis first shows that there could be windows of opportunity available for international technology transfer to emergent leading firms in the emerging stage of a new industry from competition to achieve a dominant compatibility standard among technology leaders. However, the research stresses that the characteristic of these technologies is cutting-edge but technologically incomplete and commercially unproven, which highlights the importance of previous experience and capacity for successful commercialisation. Moreover, the thesis shows that Korean firms pursuing a dual frontier overcame their uneven development between technological and marketing capabilities through intensive inter-firm collaborations with intermediary users, that is Mobile Network Operators (MNOs). In the thesis, it is stressed that Korean firms competed against technology leaders like Nokia in export markets by complementing weak marketing capabilities based on continuous collaborations with MNOs, evolving from von Hippelian to Teecean inter-firm relationships. Lastly, the thesis introduces to the literature on industry organisation a new form of an outsourcing organisation, termed a ‘contract developer' (CD), which has been identified as a group of firms that is unilaterally specialised in, and that carries out development outsourcing projects for, mobile handset Own Brand Manufacturers (OBMs). The thesis reveals that CDs emerged from the industry shake-out and the co-specialised structure between mobile handset OBMs and MNOs in the industry and served as one of main mechanisms that supported the successful globalisation of the Korean firms. Therefore, the thesis argues that the key strategy that Korean emergent leading firms adopted to compete at the world frontier can be described as a ‘quasi' extension of firm boundaries in terms of development resources (the CDs) and in terms of downstream capabilities (the MNOs).

Thesis (MSc)--University of Stellenbosch, 2005.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Cellular network operators globally loose between 3% and 5% of their annual revenue to telecommunications fraud. Hence it is of great importance that fraud management systems are implemented to detect, alarm, and shut down fraud within minutes, minimising revenue loss. Modern proprietary fraud management systems employ (i) classification methods, most often artificial neural networks learning from classified call data records to classify new call data records as fraudulent or legitimate, (ii) statistical methods building subscriber behaviour profiles based on the subscriber’s usage in the cellular network and detecting sudden changes in behaviour, and (iii) rules and threshold values defined by fraud analysts, utilising their knowledge of valid fraud cases and the false alarm rate as guidance. The purpose of this thesis is to establish a context for and evaluate the performance of well-known data mining techniques that may be incorporated in the fraud detection process. Firstly, a theoretical background of various well-known data mining techniques is provided and a number of seminal articles on fraud detection, which influenced this thesis, are summarised. The cellular telecommunications industry is introduced, including a brief discussion of the types of fraud experienced by South African cellular network operators. Secondly, the data collection process and the characteristics of the collected data are discussed. Different data mining techniques are applied to the collected data, demonstrating how user behaviour profiles may be built and how fraud may be predicted. An appraisal of the performances and appropriateness of the different data mining techniques is given in the context of the fraud detection process. Finally, an indication of further work is provided in the conclusion to this thesis, in the form of a number of recommendations for possible adaptations of the fraud detection methods, and improvements thereof. A combination of data mining techniques that may be used to build a comprehensive fraud detection model is also suggested.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Sellulêre netwerk operateurs verloor wêreldwyd tussen 3% en 5% van hul jaarlikse inkomste as gevolg van telekommunikasie bedrog. Dit is dus van die uiterse belang dat bedrog bestuurstelsels geïmplimenteer word om bedrog op te spoor, alarms te genereer, en bedrog binne minute te staak om verlies aan inkomste tot ’n minimum te beperk. Moderne gepatenteerde bedrog bestuurstelsels maak gebruik van (i) klassifikasie metodes, mees dikwels kunsmatige neurale netwerke wat leer vanaf geklassifiseerde oproep rekords en gebruik word om nuwe oproep rekords as bedrog-draend of nie bedrog-draend te klassifiseer, (ii) statistiese metodes wat gedragsprofiele van ’n intekenaar bou, gebaseer op die intekenaar se gedrag in die sellulêre netwerk, en skielike verandering in gedrag opspoor, en (iii) reëls en drempelwaardes wat deur bedrog analiste daar gestel word, deur gebruik te maak van hulle ondervinding met geldige gevalle van bedrog en die koers waarteen vals alarms gegenereer word. Die doel van hierdie tesis is om ’n konteks te bepaal vir en die werksverrigting te evalueer van bekende data ontginningstegnieke wat in bedrog opsporingstelsels gebruik kan word. Eerstens word ’n teoretiese agtergrond vir ’n aantal bekende data ontginningstegnieke voorsien en ’n aantal gedagteryke artikels wat oor bedrog opsporing handel en wat hierdie tesis beïnvloed het, opgesom. Die sellulêre telekommunikasie industrie word bekend gestel, insluitend ’n kort bespreking oor die tipes bedrog wat deur Suid-Afrikaanse sellulˆere telekommunikasie netwerk operateurs ondervind word. Tweedens word die data versamelingsproses en die eienskappe van die versamelde data bespreek. Verskillende data ontginningstegnieke word vervolgens toegepas op die versamelde data om te demonstreer hoe gedragsprofiele van gebruikers gebou kan word en hoe bedrog voorspel kan word. Die werksverrigting en gepastheid van die verskillende data ontginningstegnieke word bespreek in die konteks van die bedrog opsporingsproses. Laastens word ’n aanduiding van verdere werk in die gevolgtrekking tot hierdie tesis verskaf, en wel in die vorm van ’n aantal aanbevelings oor moontlike aanpassings en verbeterings van die bedrog opsporingsmetodes wat beskou en toegepas is. ’n Omvattende bedrog opsporingsmodel wat gebruik maak van ’n kombinasie van data ontginningstegnieke word ook voorgestel.

The structure of the telecommunications industry in Japan has been changing revolutionarily. The changes are observed in five phases: (1) development of competition into the local call market, (2) diffusion of broadband Internet and development of inter-platform competition, (3) rapid growth of cellular services and Internet access via cellular, (4) decline of POTS (plain old telephone service), and (5) structural changes from vertical integration to layered structure and development of media convergence. These changes require total review of the regulatory framework that was formed in the POTS era. In this chapter, I propose to review: (a) essential facilities regulation, (b) a universal service system, and (c) a flat-rate pricing system of the Internet to solve problems that are likely to distort the new industry structure and would stress the importance of a regulatory system that is competition, technology, and content neutral.

The influence of institutional pressures on standards and standardization are readily apparent in their most direct form. For example, in the mid-1990s, both the European Union and the United States issued new wireless communications licenses in the 1.8-2.0 GHz band: the EU countries mandated use of their decade-old communications standard, while the U.S. authorized three competing standards not yet widely used in the U.S. (Mehrotra, 1994). However, institutional pressures can also shape standardization efforts in a less direct fashion. For example, in a regulated industry such as telecommunications, existing economic and political institutions constrain the diffusion of a new technology. Such diffusion mediates the impact of product compatibility standards upon society. If producers adopt standards for their goods and services, and if users adopt the products that incorporate such standards, only then such standards can have an economic or social effect upon society at large. Therefore, it is important to understand the impact of institutional pressures on diffusion of the innovation that incorporates a standard if we wish to explain the eventual success or failure of such a standard. Here a particular standards-based innovation, analog cellular telephone service, provides an opportunity to contrast the effects of institutions on diffusion and thus standardization. Over a four year period, three independent design centers deployed mutually incompatible standards in three continents. While the technical solutions were similar, differences in institutional context between the regions influenced both the nature of the respective standards and their corresponding diffusion. In particular, the systems were deployed in a period of shifting telecommunications competition policies and priorities for radio frequency allocation. Prior research has examined the causal links between standards and institutions, both the institutional context of standards development (e.g., Besen, 1990) and also how established standards themselves function as institutions (Kindleberger, 1983). But rarely do we have the opportunity to examine the diffusion of the same innovation in differing institutional contexts. This paper will focus on the most complex institutional context for the deployment of cellular telephone service, the United States, which despite having invented cellular technology, was the third region to deploy cellular service due to regulatory delays. The experience of Japan and Northern Europe are offered as contrasts to highlight the importance of the institutional context in the adoption of both standards and standardized products.

Science and technology are expected to support actual service provision and to create new services to promote service industries’ productivity. However, those problems might not be solved solely in a certain research area. This paper describes that it is necessary to establish transdisciplinary approaches to service design in consideration of consumers’ values and decision making. Recent research trends of services are overviewed. Then a research framework is proposed to integrate computer sciences, human sciences, and economic sciences. Three study examples of services are then presented. The first study is a multi-agent simulation of a cellular telephone market based on results of a psychological survey. The second presents a cognitive model constructed through integration of questionnaire data of a retail business and Bayesian network modeling. The third presents a pricing mechanism design for service facilities––movie theaters––using an economic experiment and agent-based simulation.

This chapter applies the idea of emancipation to apprehend the usage of cellular telephones amongst lady entrepreneurs in city and rural regions related to ICT and era. Data were accumulated via questionnaire and focused on institution discussions and were analysed by SPSS. The findings found that the majority of women from different countries were micro-entrepreneurs. In traditional operations such as marketing and distribution, data inflow, customer service delivery, compounded industry strategies, and revenues, woman marketers earned directly, which promoted improved profitability and organizational change. The look came to conclude that successful girls are beginning something new with a small investment instead of being inactive and searching out a process. It could be best for graduate owners to start their own commercial enterprises in partnership with NGOs and humanitarian resource corporations.

In this chapter, the authors discuss innovations associated with the transition from the circuit-switched public telephone network to IP packet-switched networks for the provision of voice services by focusing on research findings in the area of quality of service (QoS). To give a meaningful answer on how this transition affects the telecommunications industry, we elaborate on the frequently-cited concept of disruptive innovations, pioneered by Harvard Professor Clayton M. Christensen.

The evolutions in the field of telecommunications technologies, with the robustness and the fidelity these new systems provide, have significantly contributed in the advancement and development in the field of medicine, and they have also brought forth the need for their utilisation in the healthcare sector. Thus, telemedicine and e-Health have clearly started to become an important issue for implementation, operational deployment of services and a promising market for industry. Recognizing this trend, its importance in the lives of citizens all around the globe and its contribution in the daily healthcare delivery by all actors involved in the procedure, the authors of this chapter attempt to familiarize the readers with the impact that high broadband wireless networks have upon telemedicine services and with the way they facilitate the secure transmission of vital information stemming from bandwidth demanding applications in real time. After providing the readers with an overview of telemedical services and commenting on how they can offer added value to existing healthcare services, they provide an analysis of the wireless infrastructure that has facilitated telemedical services over the years, and point out the significant role that the third generation telecommunications systems can play in the field. After that, follows an analysis of the range of new applications that can be supported by the 3G telecommunications infrastructure, and the related research that has taken place in the European level regarding the utilization of 3G networks for telemedical applications. However, 3G networks are not a panacea; for this reason the limitations of this infrastructure is also stressed out. The authors conclude by discussing whether 3G networks can prove to be an attractive solution for telemedical services to healthcare providers.

As this is the age of technology and every day we are receiving the news about growing popularity of internet and its applications. Cloud computing is an emerging paradigm of today that is rapidly accepted by the industry/organizations/educational institutions etc. for various applications and purpose. As computing is related to distributed and parallel computing which are from a very long time in the market, but today is the world of cloud computing that reduces the cost of computing by focusing on personal computing to data center computing. Cloud computing architecture and standard provide a unique way for delivering computation services to cloud users. It is having a simple API (Application Platform Interface) to users for accessing storage, platform and hardware by paying-as-per-use basis. Services provided by cloud computing is as same as other utility oriented services like electricity bill, water, telephone etc. over shared network. There are many cloud services providers in the market for providing services like Google, Microsoft, Manjrasoft Aneka, etc.

Background: The COVID-19 climate has seen a shift in the manner that patients seek care. Lockdown measures and COVID-19 regulations, and the fear of contracting the virus at a health care facility has also changed health seeing behaviour among patients. The COVID-19 climate has seen a significant increase in the utilisation of virtual platforms to consult with providers. Objectives: The objective of this chapter was to conduct the descriptive analysis of telephonic consultations by members of medical schemes who consulted general medical practitioners. Methods: The study entailed a descriptive analysis of medical scheme claims data for the 2020 review period. The inclusion criteria were all National Pharmaceutical Product Interface (NAPPI) codes associated with a telephonic consultation consulting general medical practitioners. The ICD-10 code primary diagnosis was used to describe the diagnosis. The study mainly focused on outpatient patients with service dates between March and December 2020. Results: The analysis covered claims data from a total of 12 medical schemes. The schemes analysed accounted for 1,6 million lives. The total number of telephonic consultations was 17 237. The mean (SD) claimed amount for telephone consultation for a general medical practice consult was R2821 (SD = 20). This was slightly lower than the scheme tariff of R2872 (SD = 19). The study found that most telephonic consults were for Acute bronchitis, unspecified; Acute upper respiratory; Emergency use of U07.1 (Confirmed diagnosis); Emergency use of U07.2 (Suspected Diagnosis); Follow-up examination; Special screening. Conclusion: The study found evidence of patients utilising telephonic consultations for general medical practitioner services. The effect of COVID-19 in this respect was seen in the three main primary diagnoses that were associated with the consult, Acute upper respiratory, Emergency use of U07.1 (confirmed diagnosis) and Emergency use of U07.2 (suspected diagnosis). Even though the average telephonic consult was claimed at just under R3003, few general medical practitioners claimed between R4004 and R5005 which were higher than the industry average. There is a need to develop telephone consult guidelines at industry level, these should also address reimbursement rate differentials.

In developed economies, electronic communication infrastructures are crucial for daily public, private, and business interactions. Cellular systems are extensively used for business communications, private interaction, and in some cases, public information services, via such uses as mass SMS messaging. The Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN) is at the core of all communications platforms. It was used primarily for voice communication purposes, but with current technological advances, this platform has been transformed from a voice to voice interface to a web enabled multimedia platform that provides commercial, business, and e-commerce services to the public. In response to the September 11, 2001, terrorist acts in New York City, the UK government introduced a policy of separating and transferring all emergency communication traffic from the PSTN to a digital public safety network based on the TETRA architecture. This paper extends the utilisation of the TETRA deployment by discussing a secure MANET hybrid solution for use in extreme situations as a short/mid-term EMS organisational communication platform for emergency and rescue operations.

The number of cellular phone subscribers has reached a total of 5.6 million in Taiwan (NCC, 2007). Meanwhile, Internet users have reached a total of 14.5 million and mobile Internet users have broken the record of 9.1 million in 2006 (NCC, 2007). The combination of information and telecommunication technologies has brought people a new communication method—cellular value-added services, which have become a lucrative business for telecommunication providers in Taiwan. One result of the cellular value-added services presented to the public brought the information-based, messaging-based, and financial services into one kit; people can not only communicate through the cellular phones but also use them as versatile handsets. Do- CoMo, a famous Japanese telecommunication provider, has successfully cultivated the cellular value-added services. Its success can be explained with two reasons: one is content, and Web site providers are willing to share their technical support; and the other reason is the establishment of an automated payment system to assist the cash flow between providers and even beef up the whole industry by associating related business partners (Natsuno, 2001). Comparing with DoCoMo’s case, the telecommunication service providers in Taiwan have provided various cellular value-added services. However, the popularity of the service does not turn out to be as good as expected. We are wondering why. Telecommunication providers began to adjust the fee of short message service (SMS) down to 25% maximally since June 2004 in Taiwan. The idea of lowering fees is to stimulate the popularity of SMS usage. Would that bring a collateral effect to the providers of cellular value-added service positively or negatively? In response, this research will discuss the challenges facing Taiwanese cellular value-added service providers. Hinet, Taiwan Cellular Corporation (TCC), and Flyma online service providers have been chosen as research companies.

Rapid proliferation and developments in the field of telecommunication have led to a renewed interest in the fifth-generation technology standard for broadband cellular networks. As compared to the previous generations, 5G is capable of connecting numerous nodes simultaneously while offering pathbreaking implementations in enabling time-critical services such as autonomous vehicles, real-time drone manoeuvres, Industry 4.0, virtual reality, augmented reality, etc. Nevertheless, these conveniences may turn out to be security threats or vulnerabilities susceptible to cyberattacks. Apparently, thwarting cyberattacks is a never-ending journey, especially in the major economic sector – healthcare. It is an undeniable fact that healthcare is among the industries underpinning a nation’s economy. Hence, this paper will first forecast the trend of PHI breaches with Holt Winter’s model to emphasise the rise of cyber threats. Next, evaluating the risks of the chosen asset with ISO/IEC 27001 risk matrix. Then, compares the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) SP 800-61 Incident Response Lifecycle and John Boyd’s OODA Loop; the latter offers significant advantages over the former concerning the adoption of situational awareness concepts, philosophy, and more. As a result, the number of PHI breaches increase tremendously due to the growth in the number of IT incidents and insider attacks. Keywords: 5G network, Incident response, Agile response, Cyberattack, Information security

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.