Добірка наукової літератури з теми "Captation de la plus-Value"

Cet article décrit les connaissances grammaticales relatives à la notion de verbe, élaborées par des élèves de 12-13 ans au cours de l’apprentissage de l’accord du verbe. Nos données, recueillies grâce à la captation vidéo en classe, indiquent que les élèves utilisent plus de connaissances procédurales que déclaratives pour identifier le verbe et que le recours à des connaissances marginales diminue après l’institutionnalisation des savoirs. Toutefois, les connaissances antérieures des élèves sont prégnantes : elles résistent à l’institutionnalisation de savoirs nouveaux. Nous discutons des implications des résultats pour la transposition didactique externe, en soulignant l’intérêt de l’enseignement des savoirs procéduraux.

Concept flou ou mobile, la communication devenue technique de la captation des messages ne se range pas dans une discipline unique ou uniforme. Elle s'étend hors des domaines où l'on veut l'enserrer, des champs d'application des sciences humaines aux champs opératoires des empires télématiques. Après que les ethnologues et les sociologues, les linguistes et les systémistes, les cybernéticiens et les psychiatres, lui ont accordé les sens les plus divers, la communication au sens large et comme réalité quotidienne, est entrée dans son ère opérationnelle dans les années 1980 avec les Nouvelles Technologies de l'Information et de la Communication (NTIC).

Si l’on devait considérer l’ensemble des « régions à l’ouest et au nord de Montréal », la notion de « folklore des Pays d’en haut » pourrait, à elle seule, faire l’objet d’un colloque entier. Notre propos, plus modeste, se limite à la chanson. La documentation écrite des chroniqueurs atteste déjà, dès l’ouverture de ces territoires jusqu’à la fin du xixe siècle, la présence marquante de la chanson de tradition orale, même si les retranscriptions intégrales y sont clairsemées. La captation de la littérature orale auprès de témoins vivants est une invention toute récente. Inaugurée par Marius Barbeau en 1914, elle a touché l’Outaouais puis le nord de l’Ontario au milieu du xxe siècle et n’a guère débordé cette province avant les années 1970. Cet exposé esquisse à grands traits l’état présent de la documentation orale connue sur ces régions à l’ouest de l’Outaouais, en attente d’une étude plus fouillée.

<p class="zhengwen"><span lang="EN-US">The fundamental basis of all multisided business platforms is the value proposition offered to consumers, on one hand, and to business buyers, on the other hand, and so our starting point must be with the fundamentals concerning the management of value propositions. The competitive strategies of monetization and value creation include: Envelopment, overlapping, freemium, advertising and asymmetry information methods. In this paper, we allude that multisided platforms to play the role of resource integrators, involving consumers and business partners in a process of co-creation of value—an integrated, a networked business model. This is primarily due to a shift in the relative influence of different business stakeholders in the context of the business modeling of two-sided multisided platforms.</span></p>

Notre attention, ciblée par la société hyperindustrielle (Bernard Stiegler) est l’objet d’une économie (Yves Citton), et ses modalités de capture prennent la forme de stratégies anéantissant « (…) les processus d’individuation psychique et collective qui caractérisent la vie de l’esprit. » (B. Stiegler). Nous observerons comment les artistes actuels, par leurs dispositifs immersifs, captent notre attention sur ces phénomènes disruptifs et ces stratégies de désindividuation de l’humain. Avec Tino Sehgal, la captation devient un mode de création prompt à remplir l’espace du Palais de Tokyo de poésie visuelle, sonore, et de récits imaginaires. Le spectacteur devient l’un des rouages d’une immense « machinerie » performative, entraîné par des acteurs performers à vivre différentes expériences immersives gratifiantes, teintées de relations interhumaines. Pour Maurizio Cattelan le détournement d’attention est employé comme un procédé de captation qui retarde la perception pour, in fine, nous sidérer, et dénoncer des politiques génocidaires. Piéger le spectateur au coeur même d’un white cube scénarisé, tout en choquant sa conscience, revient à l’alerter sur les dangers de la désindividuation produite par « un monde sans ombre, illuminé 24/7, amputé de l’altérité (…). » (Jonathan Crary). Enfin, à l’ère de l’anthropocène, de la disruption sociétale et de la dénoétisation planifiée par l’industrie culturelle, une alternative humaniste en marge des marchés spéculatifs internationaux, celle de la société des Nouveaux commanditaires, réhabilite l’individu psychique. Le spectateur-citoyen y est instauré en coauteur d’une oeuvre fondée sur « la confiance pour s’entendre et non plus par un acte d’autorité. » (François Hers).

Cette contribution porte sur les nouvelles formes d’organisation du travail et de répartition des bénéfices dans le cadre de la mécanisation de l’exploitation artisanale et de petite échelle en Côte d’Ivoire. Ce pays a connu un boom aurifère plus tardif que ses voisins, notamment en raison de la prégnance historique de la culture de plantation. Lors de son expansion à partir des années 2013-2014, l’orpaillage – qui reste actuellement une activité largement illégale – s’est structuré autour de techniques d’extraction mécanisées. À partir d’enquêtes réalisées dans une localité située au centre de la Côte d’Ivoire, nous montrons d’abord que, à la différence de l’exploitation exclusivement artisanale, cette mécanisation a introduit davantage de spécialisation des activités et une augmentation des rémunérations fixes sous forme numéraire. Ensuite, nous insistons sur le fait que cette logique plus hiérarchique et inégalitaire ne remet pas pour autant en cause la persistance des opportunités individuelles, du fait d’un éthos assez tolérant à l’égard des détournements, mais aussi de la possibilité qu’offre l’activité d’accéder à des sommes importantes. Enfin, nous montrons en quoi la multiplication des points possibles de captation de la rente de l’or est à l’origine de la création d’une « chaîne alimentaire locale » de plus en plus dense et étendue, à mesure que l’investissement augmente et qu’une plus grande diversité d’acteurs est impliquée.

Au xix e siècle, la chanson est une réalité fluctuante, dans ses fonctions, sa constitution ou sa poétique. La possibilité d’enregistrement après 1877 amorce un changement des paradigmes : la captation sonore s’impose en tant que performance. Les enregistrements de chansons se multiplient à partir des années 1890, grâce à des inventeurs comme Charles Pathé et surtout Henri Lioret, avec ses cylindres en celluloïd. Le corpus de plus de 200 enregistrements réalisés par Lioret entre 1893 et 1895, accessibles sur le site Phonobase, permet de faire ressortir plusieurs marqueurs d’une nouvelle esthétique, issue de celle des cafés-concerts, mais s’en écartant néanmoins parfois : éclectisme des styles, prédominance de l’ a capella – qui souligne a contrario la présence d’instruments –, effets de théâtralisation à plusieurs voix et commentaires, et surtout, anonymisation des interprètes. Y répondront, mais à partir de 1897, des enregistrements de vedettes identifiées : à la pure gloire scénique succèdera le vedettariat phonographique.

Cet article expose une méthodologie élaborée pour suivre, sur deux ans, huit artistes d’arts vivants produisant sur une œuvre transmédiatique. Un riche corpus a été constitué grâce à un protocole expérimental de captation visant à maximiser les traces et contrepoints par l’expérimentation de différents dispositifs socio-techniques. Restituées sous forme d’un webdocumentaire-mooc, les traces ont alimenté tout autant la recherche elle-même. Inscrite dans le cadre du projet européen Open Access, une approche diégétique a permis d'envisager la poïèse de l’œuvre en tant que récit, mais aussi comme inscrite dans un univers plus vaste, révélant la convergence des différents dispositifs de médiation. La recherche montre l'importance des liens dialogiques et de l'interaction entre le chercheur et son sujet, ainsi qu'entre l'utilisateur et les dispositifs de restitution. Cette approche novatrice rend accessibles des champs informationnels autrefois inaccessibles, suggérant de nouvelles explorations, comme d’associer cette sagacité à la puissance de l'intelligence artificielle

Chez le poulet de chair, l’exposition chronique à la chaleur réduit significativement le métabolisme basal, mais accroît l’extrachaleur rapportée à l’énergie métabolisable ingérée. La proportion d’énergie retenue sous forme de lipides est plus élevée et celle retenue sous forme de protéines moindre à 32°C comparés à 22°C. Ceci pourrait provenir de modifications de l’utilisation du glucose, en relation avec une altération de la sécrétion d’insuline et de la sensibilité des tissus à cette hormone. La chaleur accroît l’engraissement, particulièrement au niveau sous-cutané. La proportion d’acides gras saturés dans les tissus adipeux est alors plus élevée. Le fort engraissement au chaud ne paraît pas s’expliquer par une lipogenèse hépatique accrue. Les flux de sécrétion de lipoprotéines de type VLDL ou de triglycérides totaux, qui représentent les capacités d’exportation des lipides du foie vers les autres tissus, ne sont pas non plus augmentés. Enfin, la captation périphérique des triglycérides circulants par la lipoprotéine lipase dans les tissus adipeux apparaît même réduite. En revanche, l’utilisation des acides gras déposés serait plus faible. La réduction du dépôt protéique au chaud provient essentiellement d’une baisse de la synthèse des protéines musculaires. Il est possible que la chaleur modifie les besoins en acides aminés, certains d’entre eux deviendraient alors limitants pour la synthèse protéique. La protéosynthèse pourrait aussi être limitée par un apport énergétique insuffisant au muscle ou en raison de modifications du contexte hormonal.En ambiance chaude, si une supplémentation lipidique n’a que peu d’effet, augmenter le taux protéique de l’aliment améliore les performances et la rétention protéique des animaux. Cet effet, bien que bénéfique, reste pourtant relativement modéré.

Cette thèse étudie la valorisation du foncier public à Istanbul. Elle interroge les relations entre l’État et les acteurs de l’immobilier résidentiel en Turquie, leur rôle dans l’organisation de la production du logement et leurs prérogatives en matière de gestion foncière qui pousse à la hausse la valeur des terrains publics. Pour étudier les relations État-marché dans les mécanismes de valorisation du foncier public, cette thèse analyse un montage opérationnel original, le partage des recettes en échange du foncier (PREF). Ce montage résulte d’une collaboration étroite entre TOKİ, l’Administration Publique du Logement Collectif et sa filiale, Emlak Konut, une société d’investissement foncier et immobilier cotée. TOKİ mobilise les terrains publics et les transforme en terrains bâtir avant de les vendre à Emlak Konut. Ce dernier garde la propriété du sol mais sélectionne un promoteur privé, dans le cadre d’un appel d’offres, chargé de financer et de construire un type de logement haut de gamme spécifique : le logement de marque. Avec ce montage, TOKİ et Emlak Konut garantissent une valorisation optimale du foncier public et promettent d’en redistribuer une partie au profit de l’intérêt général, en finançant notamment le logement social et les équipements publics. À partir de deux projets en PREF, situés dans les quartiers de Kayabaşı et de Zekeriyaköy, et avec l’apport des théories de la rente foncière et des études urbaines portant sur la captation de la valeur foncière, cette recherche décrypte dans le détail les bilans financiers des deux opérations immobilières. Les résultats portent sur les processus de captation, de partage et de redistribution de la valeur foncière à Istanbul. Ils mettent en évidence les stratégies des acteurs du PREF pour sécuriser les investissements immobiliers dans le logement de marque et maximiser les revenus publics issus de la valorisation foncière
This research is about the valuation of public land in Istanbul. It explores the relationship between the state and the residential real estate actors in Turkey. This includes focusing on the role of these actors in the organization of housing production, its prerogatives and how they drive an increase in public land value. To study the relationship between the state and the markets with regards to the mechanisms of promoting public land, the thesis includes an analysis of an original operational arrangement, the revenue sharing in exchange for land (RSEL). This set-up is the result of a close collaboration between TOKİ, the Mass Housing Administration and its subsidiary, Emlak Konut, a real estate investment trust (REIT). TOKİ recovers the state-owned public land, transforms it into building land and then sell it to Emlak Konut. The REIT retains ownership of the land but contracts a private developer, as part of a call for tenders, to be responsible for financing and building branded housing (a type of luxury housing). TOKİ and Emlak Konut work in this way together to ensure optimal valorization for the public land. They promise to redistribute part of it for the benefit of the residents. This includes by financing social housing and public facilities. This research examines existing theory of urban rent and land value capture through the case study of the analysis of the financial balance sheets of two branded housing RSEL projects located in the district of Kayabaşı and Zekeriyaköy. Research findings from the case study relates to capture processes and the sharing and redistribution of land value in Istanbul. The thesis highlights specifically the strategies of RSEL stakeholders to secure real estate investments in branded housing and maximize public revenues from land development

En tant qu'accroissement de la valeur d'une chose, la plus-value est une richesse nouvelle particulièrement convoitée lorsque sa production résulte du non­propriétaire de la chose. Résoudre le conflit entre le propriétaire de la chose et l'auteur de la plus-value suppose de la situer par rapport à la chose pour pouvoir définir sa maîtrise. L'étude répond à cette problématique en menant d'abord une analyse de la présence de la plus-value. La plus-value semble dans une situation ambivalente puisqu'elle apparaît attachée à la chose tout en lui étant distincte. Cette situation ambivalente de la plus-value devait être prise en compte pour la définir à partir d'une analyse civile et fiscale. La naissance d’une plus-value a également été examinée en procédant à une relecture systématique des facteurs qui la produisent. Sur cette base, l'ouvrage propose ensuite de déterminer les modalités de maîtrise de la plus-value. La dépendance de la plus-value envers la chose implique de l'appréhender par la médiation de la chose. Cette forme de maîtrise d'une plus-value n'est pas sans générer des difficultés puisqu'elle nécessite de saisir la chose. Sans autre examen, on aperçoit immédiatement que cette solution est susceptible d'enrichir le propriétaire du bien dont la chose bénéficie d'une plus-value produite par un tiers. Cette difficulté a été dépassée à partir d'une étude du rapport entre la plus-value et la monnaie, pour ensuite envisager l'existence d'une indemnité de plus-value au profit de son auteur
The capital gain is a new form of wealth, especially coveted when the production results from someone other than the owner of the object itself. To salve the conflict between the owner of the object and the originator of the capital gain one has to situate that capital gain in law to define its control. The study answers to this issue by firstly analyzing the presence of the capital gain. The capital gain has been identified as a distinct entity from the object, to which it is however attached. This ambivalent situation of the capital gain has to be considered when defining its consistence based on a civil and fiscal analysis. The origin of a capital gain has also been examined in proceeding with a systematic re-reading of its repository and the factors who produce it. Based on this, the following work proposes to determine the control of the capital gain. To understand the dependence of the capital gain towards the abject, you have to look at it through the mediation of the object. This form of contract of capital gain doesn't come without difficulties, since you have to grasp the object. Without other examination, we can immediately see that this solution might enrich the owner of the property, of which the abject benefits from a capital gain, produced by a third party. This difficulty was surpassed based on a study on the connection between the capital gain and monetary units. By considering the capital gain in the quantity of monetary units corresponding, it was proposed to control the capital gain in a monetary form. This particular way of control opens stimulating perspectives since it has then been indemnity of capital gain in favor of its originator

La notion de plus-value en droit privé est une notion à laquelle la doctrine et la jurisprudence, principalement, ont attribué un double sens. Le terme désigne, à la fois, une valeur comptable, une simple écriture comptable, et un gain de capital, une richesse. L'étude du droit positif porte la trace de cette ambiguïté. En tant que gain de capital, la plus-value est au coeur de problèmes d'appropriation. Tout en ne l'identifiant pas avec les fruits et les revenus, la jurisprudence applique à la plus-value un régime juridique identique. La plus-value est attribuée au propriétaire du bien. Cette solution trouve sa justification dans une conception de la plus-value en tant qu'accroissement du capital. En fait, en tant que richesse, elle ne peut pas faire l'objet d'une appropriation. Elle est la représentation économique de l'augmentation de l'effectivité d'un pouvoir sur un chose. Elle est donc attachée à la propriété par le bien qu'elle représente. En tant que valeur comptable, la plus-value est l'indice économique du gain de valeur permettant de le quantifier, dans le cadre d'un rapport d'obligation entre le propriétaire et un tiers.

L'approche des desequilibres spatiaux d'accumulation, consiste dans l'etude de disparite spatiale du developpement des forces productives. Disparite dont decoule une autre au niveau de degre de prise en charge de la formation et de la reproduction de la force du travail. Cette derniere disparite est a l'origine du transfert de valeurs dans le proces de circulation d'un espace economique a un autre. Et la traduction ultime de ce transfert est l'apparition des formes de desaccumulation et de suraccumulation de la plusvalue. Formes sur lesquelles est fondee la notion de desequilibres spatiaux d'accumulation
It's about a modelization of accululating dynamic on the capitalistic level and in which analysis instruments are combined both mathematically and historically. It has been proved the presence of a chain of spatial disequilibriums of accumulation. This chain starts from a sectoriel disequilibrium leading to a sectionel disequilibrium the last link is a geographical disequilibrium. Every disequilibrium works according to an articulation between a vertival dimension of accumulation characterized by a tendency of over accumulation and a horizontal dimension characterzed by a tendency of disaccumulation

The Master's Thesis deals with the valuation and the enterprise value determination. The thesis is divided into two parts. The theoretical-methodological part presents the basic principles for the valuation and defines the notion of value; indicates the particular groups of method used in compliance with the valuation objective. Special attention is devoted to the yields methods, FCFF, FCFE, and DCF models. The aim of the application part is to appoint the value of the Company ITEST plus, s.r.o to the date 30 April 2014. The application part includes company profile, strategic analysis, and financial analysis, prognosis of value drivers, financial plan, and final valuation. The discounted cash flow method - free cash flow to the equity is used for appointing the value of the enterprise. The lower limit value of the Company is determined on the accounting property of the Company.

La prévision d’ensemble hydrologique est devenue un élément clé pour atténuer les effets des catastrophes naturelles (crues et sécheresses) et pour aider à la gestion des barrages (gestion du risque et de la ressource). Une approche probabiliste permet de représenter l’incertitude de prévision et de faciliter la prise de décision. Dans cette étude, un système automatique de prévision d’ensemble du débit tenant compte des principales sources d’incertitude est utilisé. L’incertitude météorologique est décrite en utilisant des prévisions d’ensemble météorologiques (MEPS) qui, malgré des améliorations constantes, peuvent rester localement biaisées et/ou peu fiables. Ces deux problèmes peuvent affecter la qualité de la prévision du débit et les décisions qui en résultent. Cette étude vise à évaluer si un post-traitement de la prévision météorologique est utile pour améliorer la prévision du débit produite par un système quantifiant les principales sources d’incertitude. Deux techniques de post-traitement météorologique sont utilisées pour corriger des prévisions de précipitation ECMWF : “Censored, Shifted Gamma Distribution” (CSGD) et “Distribution-based scaling” (DBS). Les prévisions de précipitations brutes et post-traitées sont utilisées pour forcer 20 modèles hydrologiques et obtenir des prévisions d’ensemble de débits. L’incertitude liée aux conditions initiales sont décrites par une assimilation de données (filtre d’ensemble de Kalman). Le post-traitement de la prévision de précipitation est évalué sur les sous-bassins de la rivière Gatineau au Québec en utilisant une évaluation multi-critères (diagramme de fiabilité, MCRPS...). Les résultats montrent une amélioration de la prévision météorologique en termes de fiabilité pour tous les bassins. Cette amélioration dépend de la quantité de précipitations, de l’horizon de prévision et de la saison. Les améliorations en termes d’exactitude sont plus modérées. Cependant, l’amélioration de la qualité de la prévision de précipitation a un impact faible sur la prévision du débit.
La prévision d’ensemble hydrologique est devenue un élément clé pour atténuer les effets des catastrophes naturelles (crues et sécheresses) et pour aider à la gestion des barrages (gestion du risque et de la ressource). Une approche probabiliste permet de représenter l’incertitude de prévision et de faciliter la prise de décision. Dans cette étude, un système automatique de prévision d’ensemble du débit tenant compte des principales sources d’incertitude est utilisé. L’incertitude météorologique est décrite en utilisant des prévisions d’ensemble météorologiques (MEPS) qui, malgré des améliorations constantes, peuvent rester localement biaisées et/ou peu fiables. Ces deux problèmes peuvent affecter la qualité de la prévision du débit et les décisions qui en résultent. Cette étude vise à évaluer si un post-traitement de la prévision météorologique est utile pour améliorer la prévision du débit produite par un système quantifiant les principales sources d’incertitude. Deux techniques de post-traitement météorologique sont utilisées pour corriger des prévisions de précipitation ECMWF : “Censored, Shifted Gamma Distribution” (CSGD) et “Distribution-based scaling” (DBS). Les prévisions de précipitations brutes et post-traitées sont utilisées pour forcer 20 modèles hydrologiques et obtenir des prévisions d’ensemble de débits. L’incertitude liée aux conditions initiales sont décrites par une assimilation de données (filtre d’ensemble de Kalman). Le post-traitement de la prévision de précipitation est évalué sur les sous-bassins de la rivière Gatineau au Québec en utilisant une évaluation multi-critères (diagramme de fiabilité, MCRPS...). Les résultats montrent une amélioration de la prévision météorologique en termes de fiabilité pour tous les bassins. Cette amélioration dépend de la quantité de précipitations, de l’horizon de prévision et de la saison. Les améliorations en termes d’exactitude sont plus modérées. Cependant, l’amélioration de la qualité de la prévision de précipitation a un impact faible sur la prévision du débit.
Ensemble streamflow forecast has become a key element to mitigate the effects of natural disasters such as floods and droughts and to help dam management (risk and resource management). A probabilistic framework allows to represent the uncertainty linked to the forecast and in this way help the decision making. In this study, an automatic streamflow ensemble prediction system that accounts for three sources of uncertainty is used. Meteorological uncertainty is accounted for by using a meteorological ensemble prediction systems (MEPS) which despite constant improvements remain locally biased and/or unreliable. These problems can affect the quality of the streamflow forecast and consequently, the resulting decision. This study aims at evaluating if a MEPS post-processing is useful to improve streamflow forecasts issued by a modeling chain that quantifies the main sources of uncertainty. Two MEPS postprocessing techniques were used to correct the ECMWF precipitation forecast: Censored, Shifted Gamma Distribution (CSGD) and Distribution-based scaling (DBS). The raw and post-processed ensemble precipitation forecasts are used as forcing variables to 20 rainfallrunoff models to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. To consider the uncertainty arising from the initial conditions, the hydrological models benefit from data assimilation (Ensemble Kalman Filter). The post-processing of precipitation forecast is assessed over Gatineau’s sub-basins in Quebec using a multi-criteria evaluation (reliability diagram, MCRPS...). The results show an improvement in the meteorological forecast in terms of reliability for all the basins. This improvement varies by amount of precipitation, forecast lead time and season. The improvements in terms of accuracy were more moderate. However, the use of a meteorological post-processing technique did not lead to an improvement of the streamflow forecast.
Ensemble streamflow forecast has become a key element to mitigate the effects of natural disasters such as floods and droughts and to help dam management (risk and resource management). A probabilistic framework allows to represent the uncertainty linked to the forecast and in this way help the decision making. In this study, an automatic streamflow ensemble prediction system that accounts for three sources of uncertainty is used. Meteorological uncertainty is accounted for by using a meteorological ensemble prediction systems (MEPS) which despite constant improvements remain locally biased and/or unreliable. These problems can affect the quality of the streamflow forecast and consequently, the resulting decision. This study aims at evaluating if a MEPS post-processing is useful to improve streamflow forecasts issued by a modeling chain that quantifies the main sources of uncertainty. Two MEPS postprocessing techniques were used to correct the ECMWF precipitation forecast: Censored, Shifted Gamma Distribution (CSGD) and Distribution-based scaling (DBS). The raw and post-processed ensemble precipitation forecasts are used as forcing variables to 20 rainfallrunoff models to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. To consider the uncertainty arising from the initial conditions, the hydrological models benefit from data assimilation (Ensemble Kalman Filter). The post-processing of precipitation forecast is assessed over Gatineau’s sub-basins in Quebec using a multi-criteria evaluation (reliability diagram, MCRPS...). The results show an improvement in the meteorological forecast in terms of reliability for all the basins. This improvement varies by amount of precipitation, forecast lead time and season. The improvements in terms of accuracy were more moderate. However, the use of a meteorological post-processing technique did not lead to an improvement of the streamflow forecast.

La prévision d’ensemble hydrologique est devenue un élément clé pour atténuer les effets des catastrophes naturelles (crues et sécheresses) et pour aider à la gestion des barrages (gestion du risque et de la ressource). Une approche probabiliste permet de représenter l’incertitude de prévision et de faciliter la prise de décision. Dans cette étude, un système automatique de prévision d’ensemble du débit tenant compte des principales sources d’incertitude est utilisé. L’incertitude météorologique est décrite en utilisant des prévisions d’ensemble météorologiques (MEPS) qui, malgré des améliorations constantes, peuvent rester localement biaisées et/ou peu fiables. Ces deux problèmes peuvent affecter la qualité de la prévision du débit et les décisions qui en résultent. Cette étude vise à évaluer si un post-traitement de la prévision météorologique est utile pour améliorer la prévision du débit produite par un système quantifiant les principales sources d’incertitude. Deux techniques de post-traitement météorologique sont utilisées pour corriger des prévisions de précipitation ECMWF : “Censored, Shifted Gamma Distribution” (CSGD) et “Distribution-based scaling” (DBS). Les prévisions de précipitations brutes et post-traitées sont utilisées pour forcer 20 modèles hydrologiques et obtenir des prévisions d’ensemble de débits. L’incertitude liée aux conditions initiales sont décrites par une assimilation de données (filtre d’ensemble de Kalman). Le post-traitement de la prévision de précipitation est évalué sur les sous-bassins de la rivière Gatineau au Québec en utilisant une évaluation multi-critères (diagramme de fiabilité, MCRPS...). Les résultats montrent une amélioration de la prévision météorologique en termes de fiabilité pour tous les bassins. Cette amélioration dépend de la quantité de précipitations, de l’horizon de prévision et de la saison. Les améliorations en termes d’exactitude sont plus modérées. Cependant, l’amélioration de la qualité de la prévision de précipitation a un impact faible sur la prévision du débit.
Ensemble streamflow forecast has become a key element to mitigate the effects of natural disasters such as floods and droughts and to help dam management (risk and resource management). A probabilistic framework allows to represent the uncertainty linked to the forecast and in this way help the decision making. In this study, an automatic streamflow ensemble prediction system that accounts for three sources of uncertainty is used. Meteorological uncertainty is accounted for by using a meteorological ensemble prediction systems (MEPS) which despite constant improvements remain locally biased and/or unreliable. These problems can affect the quality of the streamflow forecast and consequently, the resulting decision. This study aims at evaluating if a MEPS post-processing is useful to improve streamflow forecasts issued by a modeling chain that quantifies the main sources of uncertainty. Two MEPS postprocessing techniques were used to correct the ECMWF precipitation forecast: Censored, Shifted Gamma Distribution (CSGD) and Distribution-based scaling (DBS). The raw and post-processed ensemble precipitation forecasts are used as forcing variables to 20 rainfallrunoff models to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. To consider the uncertainty arising from the initial conditions, the hydrological models benefit from data assimilation (Ensemble Kalman Filter). The post-processing of precipitation forecast is assessed over Gatineau’s sub-basins in Quebec using a multi-criteria evaluation (reliability diagram, MCRPS...). The results show an improvement in the meteorological forecast in terms of reliability for all the basins. This improvement varies by amount of precipitation, forecast lead time and season. The improvements in terms of accuracy were more moderate. However, the use of a meteorological post-processing technique did not lead to an improvement of the streamflow forecast.

La frontière entre actifs productifs et actifs improductifs est en grande partie une question de convention. Celle retenue ici revient à considérer comme improductifs, dans le mode de production capitaliste, les actifs ne produisant pas de plus-value. Une catégorisation des travailleurs productifs et improductifs est alors proposée. Les actifs improductifs sont loin d'être inutiles, et la contribution de chaque catégorie de travailleurs productifs et improductifs (CPI) a la reproduction et au développement de notre forme sociale est discutée. En particulier sont abordées dans ce travail la question de leur relation à la masse de plus-value sociale et celle de leur influence sur le taux de profit moyen. Une étude statistique des différentes CPI est alors menée, et la corrélation entre leur importance relative dans la population active ayant un emploi et le taux de profit est testée
The boarder between productive and unproductive occupied people is mostly a question of convention. The one we take into account here considers as unproductive labourers, in the capitalist mode of production, active people who do not produce any surplus value. A classification of productive and unproductive labourers is then proposed. Unproductive labourers are far from being useless, and the contribution of each category of productive and unproductive labourers to the reproduction and the development of our social framework is debated. In particular, the question of their relation to the social mass of surplus value and their influence on the average rate of profit is approached in this work. A statistical study of the different categories of productive and unproductive labourers is then made, and the correlation between their relative importance in the active population having a job and the rate of profit is tested

Dans cette thèse nous nous sommes intéressés aux modèles permettant de caractériser la mémoire longue en terme d’intégration fractionnaire et d’effets de seuil. Ces modèles permettent de décider si la persistance observée est mieux représentée par une propriété d’intégration fractionnaire ou de non linéarité. Ainsi, nous nous sommes intéressés aux modèles TIMA avec asymétrie contemporaine qui généralisent les modèles TIMA avec asymétrie retardée. L’introduction d’une asymétrie contemporaine implique que les chocs ne sont plus caractérisés par un bruit selon la représentation usuellement adoptée. Ce type d’asymétrie exclut une estimation des paramètres du modèle par les méthodes standards. Nous avons donc développé une méthode d’inférence simulée indirecte que nous avons mis en œuvre après en avoir étudié la performance à partir de simulations. Nous avons également étudié les modèles ARFIMA à seuil qui permettent de modéliser simultanément des effets de seuil dans le paramètre d’intégration fractionnaire et les paramètres autorégressifs. L’effet de seuil est introduit séparément puis conjointement dans le paramètre de mémoire longue et dans les paramètres autoregressifs. Nous avons proposé une procédure permettant de tester simultanément les deux types d’effets de seuil en montrant comment des tests menés séparément pour analyser chacun des deux types d’effet de seuil pouvaient conduire à des résultats fallacieux. L’application de la méthodologie développée dans notre thèse montre que le test joint est décisif pour valider la présence d’effets de seuil lorsque les tests individuels ne permettent pas de conclure
In this thesis we are interested in models characterising the long memory behavior of economic and financial data in terms of fractional integration and threshold effect. These models allow to decide whether the observed persistence is better represented by a fractional integration or threshold effect property. Thus we are interested in TIMA models with contemporaneous asymmetry which generalize TIMA models with lagged asymmetry. The introduction of contemporaneous asymmetry in the TIMA model prevents a direct estimation by maximum likelihood. We need to proceed by indirect simulation-based methods to estimate the parameters of this type of TIMA models. Also, we studied threshold ARFIMA type models allowing to model, simultaneously, the threshold effect in the fractional integration parameter and the autoregressive parameters. The threshold effect is introduced, separately then jointly, in the long memory parameter and the autoregressive parameters. We suggested a procedure to test jointly the two types of threshold effects and we showed how individual tests can lead to misleading results when used separately to analyse both types of asymmetry. Application of the developed methodology to US macroeconomic data shows that the joint test is decisive to validate the presence of threshold effect when individual tests can not conclude

AbstractPrivate wealth is comprised in part of capitalized future land rents. The Golden Rule of Accumulation is preserved even if we introduce land into our meta-model. Urban land is far more valuable than agricultural land. The risk tied to land leads to a reduction in its value in the form of a “risk premium” α > 0. Land rents can be taxed without any possibility of the tax being passed on to tenants and without loss of efficiency. If the tax is offset by a reduction in income tax, their taxation can even give rise to efficiency gains and positive distributive effects. The possibility of government intervention in the residential rental market represents a further risk for landowners. The sensitivity of the value of land to changes in the interest rate and hence the risk premium α rise with falling interest rates. In light of these many different risks, land as investment can only to a limited extent be a substitute for government bonds and hence for increasing private wealth by way of public debt. We calculate the value of land as asset category in the OECD plus China region. To this end, we primarily rely on data from statistical offices that provide figures for land in their national balance sheets. Our calculations show that the value of land in the countries of the OECD plus China region is about twice annual consumption in the region.

Abstract Investing in fundamental research enables us to push the frontiers of knowledge. However, since we don’t have access to unlimited resources we have to make choices about which areas to invest in. It is often easier to place a value on the costs of an investment than the benefits. Often, the benefits of funding a piece of research cannot be known in advance of making the investment, plus it may take many years for those benefits to be realised. Even in cases where we are looking back—trying to place a value on a past or ongoing investment in research—it is not always straightforward to identify, attribute and quantify the benefits and it is typically harder still to place a monetary value upon them.

AbstractPreshaped by the influence of Marx, Böhm-Bawerk and modern neoclassical economics, the general opinion is that the marginal product of capital must always be positive. With the help of the “period of production” T, we define a coefficient of intertemporal substitutionψ that is always non-negative. It can also be used when the real interest rate is negative. With the help of the concept of the “waiting period” Z, we can also define an always non-negative coefficient of intertemporal substitutionγ for the household side. The “loss formula” for deviations of the rate of interest from the growth rate is one application of ψ and γ. Ω = (ψT2 + γZ2)(r − g)2/2 provides a good approximation of the relative loss Ω. Overcomplexity of the system of production leads to negative marginal returns on capital. It can be empirically presumed that the OECD plus China region is on the cusp of overcomplexity. The hypothetical natural rate of interest in the eurozone is well into the minuses. To determine the value of the real capital of the private sector in the OECD plus China region, we use a framework of data taken from the World Inequality Database (WID.world). We have supplemented the data available there with data from other sources and adapted it to our theoretical objectives. According to our estimates, private wealth in the form of real capital in the OECD plus China region comes to approximately four times total annual consumption.

AbstractPoor access to healthy, high-yielding planting materials hampers potato production in East and Central Africa (ECA). The need to improve the quality and increase the quantity of seed potato available to farmers has been the basis of previous efforts in the subregion. One bottleneck in the seed value chain is the low quantity of early generation seed (EGS) for further multiplication. To break this bottleneck, the International Potato Center (CIP) and local partners introduced two rapid multiplication technologies (aeroponics and rooted apical cuttings) and an improved conventional system (sand hydroponics). These three technologies differ in terms of multiplication rates, investment costs, profitability, required skills, infrastructure, risks, and linkages to the rest of the seed value chain, with its actors, policy environment, plus supply, and demand. The three introduced technologies have helped to increase the supply of certified or high-quality seed in the region over the last decade. However, for successful scaling, the technologies have to be carefully selected based on their situation and their natural and economic environments.

AbstractA RELAP5 input model was established for a scaled-up facility simulating China's Advanced Passive Water Reactor with passive safety features. The simulation was performed to reproduce a Main Steam Line Break (MSLB) scenario at steam line connected to one Steam Generator. The figure of merit selected in this accident scenario includes the maximum containment pressure, mass and energy release to containment. Driving factors of this response function include Passive Residue Heat Removal material thermal conductivity, Pressurizer temperature, and broken steam line temperature.To achieve an adequately justified safety margin using a Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty analysis, dominant phenomena were selected from a reference Phenomenon Identification and Ranking Table. The calculation results were compared with the available reference data of similar Generation III Passive Water Reactor to assess the code's capability to predict the MSLB phenomena. The DAKOTA toolkit is used to drive both parameter sensitivity analysis and uncertainty propagation. The 95/95 uncertainty bands of key output parameters were obtained using the Wilks’ statistical methods.Compared with the reference data, the simulation results partially confirmed the stability and repeatability of the code model for initial and boundary condition perturbations. The uncertainty bands of important output parameters were demonstrated. The results indicated that the maximum containment pressure value was below the safety limit, and the passive safety system can mitigate the consequence of the MSLB. The mass and energy released into the containment were assessed according to the containment design.The parameter sensitivity analysis was performed with 34 input parameters, and the results were evaluated by Spearman's Simple Rank Correlation Coefficients.

Ce chapitre retrace les origines des instruments de captation de la valeur foncière (land-value capture, LVC) et rend compte de leur double circulation entre l’Occident et l’Asie orientale. Il explore ensuite les formes particulièrement massives prises par la LVC au Japon, à Hong Kong et en Chine, témoignant de son efficacité à financer l’urbanisation mais pointant ses effets indésirables sur le coût du logement et sur l’environnement.

In this study, we apply VAM to explore the benefits and sacrifice factors associated with paid membership in domestic e-commerce and investigate the impact on perceived value and users' intention to continue using e-commerce. Additionally, this study assesses whether the impact of these factors on perceived value varies by membership type. Perceived benefit factors for paid e-commerce members include differentiation, enjoyment, sharing, point benefit, discount benefit, content benefit, and delivery benefit. Perceived sacrifices include fee, complexity, and lost opportunity. In the case of Coupang Rocket Wow, discount benefit, delivery benefit, and opportunity loss have a significant impact on perceived value. In the case of Naver Plus membership, discount benefit, point benefit, and fee were found to have a significant impact on perceived value. The perceived value of Coupang Rocket Wow and Naver Plus membership has a positive effect on the intention to continue using Coupang and Naver. Additionally, it was found that there was a significant difference in the impact of opportunity loss on perceived value between Coupang Rocket Wow and Naver Plus Memberships.

Global value chains (GVCs) provide countries with opportunities to diversify trade, and boost productivity and growth by specializing in one stage of the production process. However, for the most part, Latin America and the Caribbean participation in GVCs remains low (18 percent) compared to Asia (28 percent) and Europe (34 percent). The COVID-19 pandemic, plus concerns regarding protectionism and the more frequent occurrence of natural disasters, have provided incentives for countries and companies to reassess their positions in global value chains. This crisis has taken a huge toll on trade, but it could also be an opportunity to boost regional integration and value chains within the region. Despite the crisis, some firms have performed well, even in those sectors where global demand has fallen, while others have lost market share. This paper analyzes the performance of individual firms, drawing on the study of rich micro data, to understand their different capacity of trade creation and destruction over the crisis. Results suggest five firm characteristics play a key role in explaining export performance during the pandemic: i) firm size, ii) diversification of export markets, iii) importer status of the firm, iv) distance from foreign suppliers, and v) performance of the firms suppliers and customers. The results are then used to outline policies fostering firms participation in global value chains.

La demande croissante à laquelle font face les systèmes de santé combinée à la rareté des ressources disponibles rend impératif leur optimisation pour effectuer des choix éclairés. Le concept d’année de vie ajustée par la qualité (AVAQ) s’inscrit dans ce cadre et utilise des instruments de mesure de qualité de vie reliée à la santé (QVRS), parmi lesquels des instruments génériques. Cependant, de nombreuses différences peuvent être observées entre ces instruments. Le constat général est que quasiment tous les instruments génériques contiennent une ou plusieurs dimensions liées à la santé physique (p. ex. incapacité, inconfort, douleur) au détriment d'autres dimensions d’ordre mentales ou sociales. Afin de pallier cette limite, un nouvel instrument a été créé, son but étant d’être plus complet et plus équilibré dans la mesure de la qualité de vie reliée à la santé globale (QVRS-G). Ce rapport présente les étapes clés de la création de cet instrument ainsi que les résultats obtenus dans la mesure de la QVRS-G des québécois au printemps 2021. Ainsi un nouvel outil générique, le 13-MD, composé de 33 items avec 5 à 7 niveaux chacun a été mis sur pieds. La création d’un value set permettant la conversion des états de santé en scores d’utilité permettra son utilisation dans les analyses coût-utilité.

This paper develops a detailed proposal for an efficient way to channel the value of large-scale renewables, which have become much cheaper than gas-driven wholesale electricity prices, to consumers at ‘cost-plus’ prices. This would reduce the fiscal pressure on governments for market-wide subsidies and offer more stable support for consumers most in need. We detail how this ‘green power pool’ approach could interact with the wholesale market to ensure firm power, also bringing transparency to the cost of balancing the variable renewables output, and maintaining incentives for efficient supply and demand responses. We illustrate the approach with reference to the cost and volume trajectories of UK renewables backed by government CfDs, targeted initially to particular consumer groups, as a first step in a wider transition towards direct consumer access to cheap renewables.

The fruit of pepper (Capsicum annuum) commonly wilts (or shrivels) during postharvest storage due to rapid water loss, a condition that greatly reduces its shelf life and market value. The fact that pepper fruit are hollow, and thus have limited water content, only exacerbates this problem in pepper. The collaborators on this project completed research whose findings provided new insight into the genetic, physiological, and biochemical basis for water loss from the fruits of pepper (Capsicum annuum and related Capsicum species). Well-defined genetic populations of pepper were used in this study, the first being a series of backcross F₁ and segregating F₂, F₃, and F₄ populations derived from two original parents selected for having dramatic differences in fruit water loss rate (very high and very low water loss). The secondly population utilized in these studies was a collection of 50 accessions representing world diversity in both species and cultivar types. We found that an unexpectedly large amount of variation was present in both fruit wax and cutin composition in these collections. In addition, our studies revealed significant correlations between the chemical composition of both the fruit cuticular waxes and cutin monomers with fruit water loss rate. Among the most significant were that high alkane content in fruit waxes conferred low fruit water loss rates and low permeability in fruit cuticles. In contrast, high amounts of terpenoids (plus steroidal compounds) were associated with very high fruit water loss and cuticle permeability. These results are consistent with our models that the simple straight chain alkanes pack closely together in the cuticle membrane and obstruct water diffusion, whereas lipids with more complex 3-dimensional structure (such as terpenoids) do not pack so closely, and thus increase the diffusion pathways. The backcross segregating populations were used to map quantitative trait loci (QTLs) associated with water loss (using DART markers, Diversity Arrays Technology LTD). These studies resulted in identification of two linked QTLs on pepper’s chromosome 10. Although the exact genetic or physiological basis for these QTLs function in water loss is unknown, the genotypic contribution in studies of near-isogenic lines selected from these backcross populations reveals a strong association between certain wax compounds, the free fatty acids and iso-alkanes. There was also a lesser association between the water loss QTLs with both fruit firmness and total soluble sugars. Results of these analyses have revealed especially strong genetic linkages between fruit water loss, cuticle composition, and two QTLs on chromosome 10. These findings lead us to further speculate that genes located at or near these QTLs have a strong influence on cuticle lipids that impact water loss rate (and possibly, whether directly or indirectly, other traits like fruit firmness and sugar content). The QTL markers identified in these studies will be valuable in the breeding programs of scientists seeking to select for low water loss, long lasting fruits, of pepper, and likely the fruits of related commodities. Further work with these newly developed genetic resources should ultimately lead to the discovery of the genes controlling these fruit characteristics, allowing for the use of transgenic breeding approaches toward the improvement of fruit postharvest shelf life.

Background Lung cancer is the number one cause of cancer death worldwide.(1) It is the fifth most commonly diagnosed cancer in Australia (12,741 cases diagnosed in 2018) and the leading cause of cancer death.(2) The number of years of potential life lost to lung cancer in Australia is estimated to be 58,450, similar to that of colorectal and breast cancer combined.(3) While tobacco control strategies are most effective for disease prevention in the general population, early detection via low dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening in high-risk populations is a viable option for detecting asymptomatic disease in current (13%) and former (24%) Australian smokers.(4) The purpose of this Evidence Check review is to identify and analyse existing and emerging evidence for LDCT lung cancer screening in high-risk individuals to guide future program and policy planning. Evidence Check questions This review aimed to address the following questions: 1. What is the evidence for the effectiveness of lung cancer screening for higher-risk individuals? 2. What is the evidence of potential harms from lung cancer screening for higher-risk individuals? 3. What are the main components of recent major lung cancer screening programs or trials? 4. What is the cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening programs (include studies of cost–utility)? Summary of methods The authors searched the peer-reviewed literature across three databases (MEDLINE, PsycINFO and Embase) for existing systematic reviews and original studies published between 1 January 2009 and 8 August 2019. Fifteen systematic reviews (of which 8 were contemporary) and 64 original publications met the inclusion criteria set across the four questions. Key findings Question 1: What is the evidence for the effectiveness of lung cancer screening for higher-risk individuals? There is sufficient evidence from systematic reviews and meta-analyses of combined (pooled) data from screening trials (of high-risk individuals) to indicate that LDCT examination is clinically effective in reducing lung cancer mortality. In 2011, the landmark National Lung Cancer Screening Trial (NLST, a large-scale randomised controlled trial [RCT] conducted in the US) reported a 20% (95% CI 6.8% – 26.7%; P=0.004) relative reduction in mortality among long-term heavy smokers over three rounds of annual screening. High-risk eligibility criteria was defined as people aged 55–74 years with a smoking history of ≥30 pack-years (years in which a smoker has consumed 20-plus cigarettes each day) and, for former smokers, ≥30 pack-years and have quit within the past 15 years.(5) All-cause mortality was reduced by 6.7% (95% CI, 1.2% – 13.6%; P=0.02). Initial data from the second landmark RCT, the NEderlands-Leuvens Longkanker Screenings ONderzoek (known as the NELSON trial), have found an even greater reduction of 26% (95% CI, 9% – 41%) in lung cancer mortality, with full trial results yet to be published.(6, 7) Pooled analyses, including several smaller-scale European LDCT screening trials insufficiently powered in their own right, collectively demonstrate a statistically significant reduction in lung cancer mortality (RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.73–0.91).(8) Despite the reduction in all-cause mortality found in the NLST, pooled analyses of seven trials found no statistically significant difference in all-cause mortality (RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.90–1.00).(8) However, cancer-specific mortality is currently the most relevant outcome in cancer screening trials. These seven trials demonstrated a significantly greater proportion of early stage cancers in LDCT groups compared with controls (RR 2.08, 95% CI 1.43–3.03). Thus, when considering results across mortality outcomes and early stage cancers diagnosed, LDCT screening is considered to be clinically effective. Question 2: What is the evidence of potential harms from lung cancer screening for higher-risk individuals? The harms of LDCT lung cancer screening include false positive tests and the consequences of unnecessary invasive follow-up procedures for conditions that are eventually diagnosed as benign. While LDCT screening leads to an increased frequency of invasive procedures, it does not result in greater mortality soon after an invasive procedure (in trial settings when compared with the control arm).(8) Overdiagnosis, exposure to radiation, psychological distress and an impact on quality of life are other known harms. Systematic review evidence indicates the benefits of LDCT screening are likely to outweigh the harms. The potential harms are likely to be reduced as refinements are made to LDCT screening protocols through: i) the application of risk predication models (e.g. the PLCOm2012), which enable a more accurate selection of the high-risk population through the use of specific criteria (beyond age and smoking history); ii) the use of nodule management algorithms (e.g. Lung-RADS, PanCan), which assist in the diagnostic evaluation of screen-detected nodules and cancers (e.g. more precise volumetric assessment of nodules); and, iii) more judicious selection of patients for invasive procedures. Recent evidence suggests a positive LDCT result may transiently increase psychological distress but does not have long-term adverse effects on psychological distress or health-related quality of life (HRQoL). With regards to smoking cessation, there is no evidence to suggest screening participation invokes a false sense of assurance in smokers, nor a reduction in motivation to quit. The NELSON and Danish trials found no difference in smoking cessation rates between LDCT screening and control groups. Higher net cessation rates, compared with general population, suggest those who participate in screening trials may already be motivated to quit. Question 3: What are the main components of recent major lung cancer screening programs or trials? There are no systematic reviews that capture the main components of recent major lung cancer screening trials and programs. We extracted evidence from original studies and clinical guidance documents and organised this into key groups to form a concise set of components for potential implementation of a national lung cancer screening program in Australia: 1. Identifying the high-risk population: recruitment, eligibility, selection and referral 2. Educating the public, people at high risk and healthcare providers; this includes creating awareness of lung cancer, the benefits and harms of LDCT screening, and shared decision-making 3. Components necessary for health services to deliver a screening program: a. Planning phase: e.g. human resources to coordinate the program, electronic data systems that integrate medical records information and link to an established national registry b. Implementation phase: e.g. human and technological resources required to conduct LDCT examinations, interpretation of reports and communication of results to participants c. Monitoring and evaluation phase: e.g. monitoring outcomes across patients, radiological reporting, compliance with established standards and a quality assurance program 4. Data reporting and research, e.g. audit and feedback to multidisciplinary teams, reporting outcomes to enhance international research into LDCT screening 5. Incorporation of smoking cessation interventions, e.g. specific programs designed for LDCT screening or referral to existing community or hospital-based services that deliver cessation interventions. Most original studies are single-institution evaluations that contain descriptive data about the processes required to establish and implement a high-risk population-based screening program. Across all studies there is a consistent message as to the challenges and complexities of establishing LDCT screening programs to attract people at high risk who will receive the greatest benefits from participation. With regards to smoking cessation, evidence from one systematic review indicates the optimal strategy for incorporating smoking cessation interventions into a LDCT screening program is unclear. There is widespread agreement that LDCT screening attendance presents a ‘teachable moment’ for cessation advice, especially among those people who receive a positive scan result. Smoking cessation is an area of significant research investment; for instance, eight US-based clinical trials are now underway that aim to address how best to design and deliver cessation programs within large-scale LDCT screening programs.(9) Question 4: What is the cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening programs (include studies of cost–utility)? Assessing the value or cost-effectiveness of LDCT screening involves a complex interplay of factors including data on effectiveness and costs, and institutional context. A key input is data about the effectiveness of potential and current screening programs with respect to case detection, and the likely outcomes of treating those cases sooner (in the presence of LDCT screening) as opposed to later (in the absence of LDCT screening). Evidence about the cost-effectiveness of LDCT screening programs has been summarised in two systematic reviews. We identified a further 13 studies—five modelling studies, one discrete choice experiment and seven articles—that used a variety of methods to assess cost-effectiveness. Three modelling studies indicated LDCT screening was cost-effective in the settings of the US and Europe. Two studies—one from Australia and one from New Zealand—reported LDCT screening would not be cost-effective using NLST-like protocols. We anticipate that, following the full publication of the NELSON trial, cost-effectiveness studies will likely be updated with new data that reduce uncertainty about factors that influence modelling outcomes, including the findings of indeterminate nodules. Gaps in the evidence There is a large and accessible body of evidence as to the effectiveness (Q1) and harms (Q2) of LDCT screening for lung cancer. Nevertheless, there are significant gaps in the evidence about the program components that are required to implement an effective LDCT screening program (Q3). Questions about LDCT screening acceptability and feasibility were not explicitly included in the scope. However, as the evidence is based primarily on US programs and UK pilot studies, the relevance to the local setting requires careful consideration. The Queensland Lung Cancer Screening Study provides feasibility data about clinical aspects of LDCT screening but little about program design. The International Lung Screening Trial is still in the recruitment phase and findings are not yet available for inclusion in this Evidence Check. The Australian Population Based Screening Framework was developed to “inform decision-makers on the key issues to be considered when assessing potential screening programs in Australia”.(10) As the Framework is specific to population-based, rather than high-risk, screening programs, there is a lack of clarity about transferability of criteria. However, the Framework criteria do stipulate that a screening program must be acceptable to “important subgroups such as target participants who are from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, people from disadvantaged groups and people with a disability”.(10) An extensive search of the literature highlighted that there is very little information about the acceptability of LDCT screening to these population groups in Australia. Yet they are part of the high-risk population.(10) There are also considerable gaps in the evidence about the cost-effectiveness of LDCT screening in different settings, including Australia. The evidence base in this area is rapidly evolving and is likely to include new data from the NELSON trial and incorporate data about the costs of targeted- and immuno-therapies as these treatments become more widely available in Australia.

This guidance note discusses the principle of value for money (VFM) and its relevance and application to the different phases of the ADB procurement cycle. It also introduces “life cycle costing,” which takes into account not only the acquisition cost, but also a combination of paid price plus the cost of operating and maintaining the goods or services procured. The guidance note provides a matrix of the relationship of VFM with other ADB core procurement principles to give a better understanding of how VFM works with the other principles.

1. Macroeconomic Summary In December, headline inflation (13.1%) and the average of the core inflation measures (10.3%) continued to trend upward, posting higher rates than those estimated by the Central Bank's technical staff and surpassing the market average. Inflation expectations for all terms exceeded the 3.0% target. In that month, every major group in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered higher-than-estimated increases, and the diffusion indicators continued to show generalized price hikes. Accumulated exchange rate pressures on prices, indexation to high inflation rates, and several food supply shocks would explain, in part, the acceleration in inflation. All of this is in a context of significant surplus demand, a tight labor market, and inflation expectations at different terms that exceed the 3.0% target. Compared to the October edition of the Monetary Policy Report, the forecast path for headline and core inflation (excluding food and regulated items: EFR) increased (Graphs 1.1 and 1.2), reflecting heightened accumulated exchange rate pressures, price indexation to a higher inflation rate (CPI and the producer price index: PPI), and the rise in labor costs attributed to a larger-than-estimated adjustment in the minimum wage. Nevertheless, headline inflation is expected to begin to ease by early 2023, although from a higher level than had been estimated in October. This would be supported initially by the slowdown forecast for the food CPI due to a high base of comparison, the end anticipated for the shocks that have affected the prices of these products, and the estimated improvement in external and domestic supply in this sector. In turn, the deterioration in real household income because of high inflation and the end of the effects of pent-up demand, plus tighter external and domestic financial conditions would contribute to diluting surplus demand in 2023 and reducing inflation. By the end of 2023, both headline and core (EFR) inflation would reach 8.7% and would be 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively, by December 2024. These forecasts are subject to a great deal of uncertainty, especially concerning the future behavior of international financial conditions, the evolution of the exchange rate, the pace of adjustment in domestic demand, the extent of indexation of nominal contracts, and the decisions taken regarding the domestic price of fuel and electricity. In the third quarter, economic activity surprised again on the upside and the growth projection for 2022 rose to 8.0% (previously 7.9%). However, it declined to 0.2% for 2023 (previously 0.5%). With this, surplus demand continues to be significant and is still expected to weaken during the current year. Annual economic growth in the third quarter (7.1 % SCA)1 was higher than estimated in October (6.4 % SCA), given stronger domestic demand specifically because of higher-than-expected investment. Private consumption fell from the high level witnessed a quarter earlier and net exports registered a more negative contribution than anticipated. For the fourth quarter, economic activity indicators suggest that gross domestic product (GDP) would have remained high and at a level similar to that observed in the third quarter, with an annual variation of 4.1%. Domestic demand would have slowed in annual terms, although at levels that would have remained above those for output, mainly because of considerable private consumption. Investment would have declined slightly to a value like the average observed in 2019. The real trade deficit would have decreased due to a drop in imports that was more pronounced than the estimated decline in exports. On the forecast horizon, consumption is expected to decline from current elevated levels, partly because of tighter domestic financial conditions and a deterioration in real income due to high inflation. Investment would also weaken and return to levels below those seen before the pandemic. In real terms, the trade deficit would narrow due to a lower momentum projection for domestic demand and higher cumulative real depreciation. In sum, economic growth for all of 2022, 2023, and 2024 would stand at 8.0%, 0.2% and 1.0%, respectively (Graph 1.3). Surplus demand remains high (as measured by the output gap) and is expected to decline in 2023 and could turn negative in 2024 (Graph 1.4). Although the macroeconomic forecast includes a marked slowdown in the economy, an even greater adjustment in domestic absorption cannot be ruled out due to the cumulative effects of tighter external and domestic financial conditions, among other reasons. These estimates continue to be subject to a high degree of uncertainty, which is associated with factors such as global political tensions, changes in international interest rates and their effects on external demand, global risk aversion, the effects of the approved tax reform, the possible impact of reforms announced for this year (pension, health, and labor reforms, among others), and future measures regarding hydrocarbon production. In 2022, the current account deficit would have been high (6.3 % of GDP), but it would be corrected significantly in 2023 (to 3.9 % of GDP) given the expected slowdown in domestic demand. Despite favorable terms of trade, the high external imbalance that would occur during 2022 would be largely due to domestic demand growth, cost pressures associated with high freight rates, higher external debt service payments, and good performance in terms of the profits of foreign companies.2 By 2023, the adjustment in domestic demand would be reflected in a smaller current account deficit especially due to fewer imports, a global moderation in prices and cost pressures, and a reduction in profits remitted abroad by companies with foreign direct investment (FDI) focused on the local market. Despite this anticipated correction in the external imbalance, its level as a percentage of GDP would remain high in the context of tight financial conditions. In the world's main economies, inflation forecasts and expectations point to a reduction by 2023, but at levels that still exceed their central banks' targets. The path anticipated for the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate increased and the forecast for global growth continues to be moderate. In the fourth quarter of 2022, logistics costs and international prices for some foods, oil and energy declined from elevated levels, bringing downward pressure to bear on global inflation. Meanwhile, the higher cost of financing, the loss of real income due to high levels of global inflation, and the persistence of the war in Ukraine, among other factors, have contributed to the reduction in global economic growth forecasts. In the United States, inflation turned out to be lower than estimated and the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the growth forecast for 2023. Nevertheless, the actual level of inflation in that country, its forecasts, and expectations exceed the target. Also, the labor market remains tight, and fiscal policy is still expansionary. In this environment, the Fed raised the expected path for policy interest rates and, with this, the market average estimates higher levels for 2023 than those forecast in October. In the region's emerging economies, country risk premia declined during the quarter and the currencies of those countries appreciated against the US dollar. Considering all the above, for the current year, the Central Bank's technical staff increased the path estimated for the Fed's interest rate, reduced the forecast for growth in the country's external demand, lowered the expected path of oil prices, and kept the country’s risk premium assumption high, but at somewhat lower levels than those anticipated in the previous Monetary Policy Report. Moreover, accumulated inflationary pressures originating from the behavior of the exchange rate would continue to be important. External financial conditions facing the economy have improved recently and could be associated with a more favorable international context for the Colombian economy. So far this year, there has been a reduction in long-term bond interest rates in the markets of developed countries and an increase in the prices of risky assets, such as stocks. This would be associated with a faster-than-expected reduction in inflation in the United States and Europe, which would allow for a less restrictive course for monetary policy in those regions. In this context, the risks of a global recession have been reduced and the global appetite for risk has increased. Consequently, the risk premium continues to decline, the Colombian peso has appreciated significantly, and TES interest rates have decreased. Should this trend consolidate, exchange rate inflationary pressures could be less than what was incorporated into the macroeconomic forecast. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their impact on the country remains high, given the unpredictable course of the war in Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, local uncertainty, and the extensive financing needs of the Colombian government and the economy. High inflation with forecasts and expectations above 3.0%, coupled with surplus demand and a tight labor market are compatible with a contractionary stance on monetary policy that is conducive to the macroeconomic adjustment needed to mitigate the risk of de-anchoring inflation expectations and to ensure that inflation converges to the target. Compared to the forecasts in the October edition of the Monetary Policy Report, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed level of output exceeding the productive capacity of the economy. In this context of surplus demand, headline and core inflation continued to trend upward and posted surprising increases. Observed and expected international interest rates increased, the country’s risk premia lessened (but remains at high levels), and accumulated exchange rate pressures are still significant. The technical staff's inflation forecast for 2023 increased and inflation expectations remain well above 3.0%. All in all, the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored persists, which would accentuate the generalized indexation process and push inflation even further away from the target. This macroeconomic context requires consolidating a contractionary monetary policy stance that aims to meet the inflation target within the forecast horizon and bring the economy's output to levels closer to its potential. 1.2 Monetary Policy Decision At its meetings in December 2022 and January 2023, Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR) agreed to continue the process of normalizing monetary policy. In December, the BDBR decided by a majority vote to increase the monetary policy interest rate by 100 basis points (bps) and in its January meeting by 75 bps, bringing it to 12.75% (Graph 1.5). 1/ Seasonally and calendar adjusted. 2/ In the current account aggregate, the pressures for a higher external deficit come from those companies with FDI that are focused on the domestic market. In contrast, profits in the mining and energy sectors are more than offset by the external revenue they generate through exports. Box 1 - Electricity Rates: Recent Developments and Indexation. Author: Édgar Caicedo García, Pablo Montealegre Moreno and Álex Fernando Pérez Libreros Box 2 - Indicators of Household Indebtedness. Author: Camilo Gómez y Juan Sebastián Mariño