Добірка наукової літератури з теми "Agricultural price policy"

In the paper, the price volatility was examined. The authors used 650 weekly observations from 2003 to 2015. Such a long period of analysis helped to reveal periods with high volatility. The objective of the paper was to recognize price volatility of agricultural commodities in Poland. The authors chose beef, pork and wheat markets to show the differentiation of price volatility. It revealed periods of large and small volatility. The global market situation impacted Polish agricultural markets with the opening markets and a greater access to the new markets. The periods having the strongest impact on Polish agricultural markets were the integration with the EU, the global crisis in 2008, and problems in the EU zone. The prices of analysed agricultural commodities differed in various EU countries. The prices of wheat increased most in France, Hungary and Lithuania. The prices of store cattle increased most in the years 2004–2015 in Estonia, Sweden and Luxemburg. The prices of pigs increased most in Malta, Sweden and Cyprus.

Agricultural prices play greater role in living Economics. Since many decades’ farmers faced declining agricultural prices and low prices in developing countries. Therefore, in these countries agricultural price policies are under closer appraisal. Government and policy makers worry about inflation. Economic precision is required in determining prices. This understanding led to conception of the study. The specific objectives are to review various agricultural price theories, research evidences and construct the theory of agricultural price bubble and crash and their effect on macro economy and suggest measures to improve. The study reviews various agricultural price theories, concepts, policies, research gaps and do meta-analysis and formulated the theory of Agricultural prices bubble and price crash. Since 1950, many development economists and practitioners prophesy in developing countries is that low agricultural commodities prices discourage poverty alleviation. Many countries are unable to make successful pricing policies due to there is not enough operative methodological and theoretical support for decision-making. According to the economic theory of cooperativism, the entities come closer to the pecking order theory. Unexpected changes and changes in regulations can have significant impact on the profitability of farming activities. “Demand channel" is the crucial factor in elucidation of commodity price growth. Future prices moments in agriculture have fat-tailed distributions and display quick and unpredicted price jumps. World Trade Organization study highlights the importance of strengthening multilateral disciplines on both import and export trade interventions to food price fluctuations to reduce beggar-thy-neighbor unilateral trade policy. The theory of NAFTA regionalism did not lead to regionalization and not increasing share of intraregional international trade. In EU countries land rents in modern agriculture causing upward trend in agricultural land prices. Information friction, agricultural supports, agricultural price & trade policies, agricultural price transmission are responsible price fluctuations. In economic theory, asymmetric price transmission has been the subject of considerable attention in agricultural gaps. Selection of forecasting models are based on chaos theory. Chaos in agricultural wholesale price data provides a good theoretical basis for selecting forecasting models. This theory can be applied to agricultural prices forecasting. Novelties in agricultural products fluctuations research offer scientific basis in planning of agricultural production.

In addition to supplying food and fiber, agriculture is a source of public goods and externalities. This article addresses two questions. First, do price and income support policies promote a multifunctional agriculture in an effective manner? Second, would policies targeted more directly at multifunctional attributes be more efficient than price and income support policies? The answer to the first question is no, at least for policies targeted at outputs (price supports, export subsidies, etc.). Public goods are not directly linked to production, but rather to land use and agricultural structures. Evidence in response to the second question is sketchier with respect to policies targeted at land.

Agricultural prices have risen worldwide sharply in the last two years, which has been a dilemma especially to policy makers. Higher agricultural prices would improve farmer's income and their living standards as well as investment in agriculture provided a fair mechanism of income transfer to them be instituted. However, the price rise seriously affects urban poors' food affordability and thus their livelihood. Various types of natural disasters particularly floods, droughts and landsides have affected agricultural crop production in Nepal resulting in fluctuations in food supplies and prices. Besides, policy measures associated with crop production, food balance and trade, petroleum price stabilization and liquor production directly or indirectly affect food market and prices. National food production, demand-supply, consumption and price scenarios and associated reasons are analyzed based on reviews of pertinent literatures. Key words: Food production, food consumption, demand-supply, price-scenario, NepalThe Journal of Agriculture and Environment Vol:.9, Jun.2008 Page: 93-97

The paper analyses the impact of the input-output price policy in agriculture on producers and consumers. Trends in prices cause immense resource transfers from agriculture. with adverse consequences for investment, output, employment, and income distribution. To the extent that these transfers accrue to industrialists and the government, the poorest benefit the least. These deleterious effects can be minimised by assured world prices for agriculture and restoration of true competition in agricultural commodity and input marlcets. In agricultural input marlcets, elimination of corruption; excessive profiteering and overstaffing should serve as the basis of a cost reduction strategyand removal of input subsidies. In the specific case of irrigation water, equitable distribution, compatibility of water rate assessment and water supply bases, and elimination of overstaffing are the prime issues deserving immediate government attention.

Price fluctuations make agriculture a risky business. High price fluctuation of agricultural commodities may have through its income effect a very unfavourable impact on the economic situation of agricultural subjects. In finding corresponding instruments of agricultural policy to stabilize prices and incomes, it is necessary to distinguish between various types of price changes. However, important question for conception of adequate price policy is how to protect against high price fluctuations and not to restrain function of price as a signal about market situation. Application of partial equilibrium analysis to evaluate impact of price stabilization policies is an adequate method, especially if price changes in the market do not cause significant price fluctuation in other markets. Using this methodological approach is possible to prove that price stabilization brings for common net benefit consumers and producers. However in practical application some additional aspects must be taken into account if dealing with stabilization of agricultural products prices.

Changes in the retail prices of pasteurised milk, purchase prices, and the price relationship between retail prices for pasteurised milk and other food products are analysed for Poland during the period from 2004–2018. In addition, the paper presents factors affecting changes in milk prices in Poland and characterises the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on the milk market. The adoption of a long period of analysis allows for the study of periods of both high and low variability. The data analysis uses various methods including the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the Autoregressive-Moving-Average Model (ARMA). The milk market showed significant response because it was one of the few that was strongly administered by the European Union. These policies led to a significant increase in milk prices in the analysed period. The average price of pasteurised food milk increased by 63% in 2003–2015, and the purchase farm price of milk increased by 91.74%. The situation changed when the production limits were eliminated after 2015. In the initial period after quotas ended, the price of milk decreased and then increased. Similar changes were observed in other EU countries. Even short-term fluctuations associated with economic crises did not significantly affect the milk market.

Much of neoclassical economics is concerned with prices—more specifically, with relative prices. Similarly, economists have studied behavior in the face of risk and uncertainty for at least a century, and risk and uncertainty are without a doubt a feature of economic life. It is thus puzzling that price risk—that is, unexpected departures from a mean price level, or price volatility—has received so little attention. In this review, we discuss the microeconomics of price risk. We begin by reviewing the theoretical literature, a great deal of which is concerned with the effects of unstable agricultural prices on the welfare of producers, consumers, and agricultural households. We then discuss the empirical literature on the effects of price risk on economic agents. We emphasize policy responses to agricultural price risk throughout, discussing price stabilization policies from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Perhaps most importantly, we provide several suggestions for future research in the area of price risk given increasing risk on world agricultural markets due to both policy uncertainty and climate change.

The Government of Senegal is attempting to liberalize the groundnut market. In the past, this market was highly regulated with government-set producer prices, groundnut oil processing mills owned by parastatals, and requirements that all groundnuts be sold to these quasi-governmental organizations. In recent years, these rules are being relaxed, and farmers are allowed to sell groundnuts on the open market. However, farmers continue to sell most of their groundnuts, as before, to the mills. This study attempts to shed light on the effects of this market liberalization. First, an attempt is made to provide estimates of the farmers' short-run output supply and input demand responses to price changes. A quadratic profit function model is estimated using data collected for the current study and a similar dataset collected by Akobundu [1997]. Second, a quadratic programming model is used to examine the effects of eliminating pan-territorial prices. Results indicate that the elimination of the pan-territorial price system will have an overall benefit to Senegalese society. However, as expected, groundnut producers in areas remote from the groundnut oil processing mills would face lower prices. The effects on producers and consumers in the major producing regions, however, were found to be minimal. Finally, the dissertation provides an extensive description of the economic activities of small-scale farm households in Senegalâ s Groundnut Basin. Differences between males and females and between household heads and other males in the household are also examined. Although females are not as involved in groundnut production, they do not seem to face discrimination in either the official or the open market. The description of the situation facing small-scale farmers provided in this dissertation is not encouraging. The quantity and timing of the rains in the Groundnut Basin add an unwelcome uncertainty to farming. Increases in population are adding pressure to the environment and are placing heavy demands on wood and grazing lands. Only eight percent of the farmers had groundnut seed multiplication ratios less than one, and sixty-seven percent had ratios less than five. The dissertation also indicates that farmers are not producing enough to feed their families. Fewer than twelve percent of the households produce a caloric surplus. Sixty percent produced less than fifty percent of their caloric needs. The study indicates that farmers are not earning enough from agricultural production to take care of normal expenses throughout the year. Thus, when combined with uncertain rains and a worsening environment, the farmers have little margin of safety. Therefore, any government policies affecting groundnut production in particular or agricultural production in general should take into account the situation already facing the farmers.
Ph. D.

Why did EC enlargement negotiations with Spain take so long? This thesis argues that agricultural issues dominated negotiations despite the political and strategic aims of stabilizing Western Europe's southern flank that underpinned the raison d'être of this enlargement. The framework of Historical New Institutionalism is used to argue that several 'biases' operating at three levels account for the length and nature of these negotiations. At the first level, the 'bilateral' format of the negotiation procedure between Spain and the EC favoured existing EC members and protected the acquis communautaire. The Community's negotiating positions, as bargains in themselves, tended to be inflexible, and reduced Spain's input in the discussions and in the agenda-setting process. At the EC level, the CAP exhibited an unusual capacity to withstand the changes required by enlargement. This was because the EC's decisionmaking structure was fragmented into sectors and levels which allowed a closely knit 'policy community' to run the CAP in a way that was relatively insulated from other issue-areas. Change in the CAP occurred to cope with enlargement, but in a path-dependent way, passing the cost of adaptation on to Spain. At the national level, member states' so-called national interests with regard to enlargement were mixed, with no clear priority, and conflicting sectoral views. This resulted from the mechanisms of interest intermediation and inter-departmental co-ordination, which shaped the formulation and representation of national views in Brussels. Spain's accession was finally made possible when new redistributive policies for the Mediterranean and fresh budgetary resources were agreed. These were approved as part the wider package-deals surrounding the Single Market project and the Single European Act. HNI provides a new and persuasive framework with which to understand the difficulties of institutional change associated with enlargement negotiations.

The Federal Reserve has increased nominal interest rates since early 2016. It is expected that commodity prices will drop in response to this monetary intervention. The overshooting hypothesis explains that commodity prices are more flexible than manufacturing prices and therefore are more volatile. In this situation, it is expected that agricultural commodities decline significantly (i.e., overshoot) and gradually return to their long-run equilibrium. This adjustment behavior has implications for income stability and financial viability of farmers. This research contributes to the overshooting literature by including the energy sector in the overshooting model. The interlinks between energy and other sectors in the economy as well as the vast resource allocation to biofuel production in recent decades demand more attention to the impact of energy on the dynamic adjustment path of relative prices’ reaction to monetary shocks. We assume energy prices have independent adjustment path and include the links between the energy and agricultural sectors through biofuel production in our model. Our theoretical model shows that by including energy prices in the model, agricultural prices and the exchange rate overshoot less than the prediction of prior studies. This happens because we expect that flexible energy prices share the burden of the shock with other flexible prices in the model. We also describe how an increasing share of biofuels in the total fuel consumption will reduce the flexibility of energy prices. In our empirical analysis, we use monthly data from January 1975 to December 2017 for three producer price indexes (i.e., agricultural commodities, energy, and industrial goods), exchange rates, and money supply to test the overshooting hypothesis. We found the series to be nonstationary and cointegrated of the order one, I(1). Thus, we estimated a vector error correction model to identify the short run adjustment parameters while maintaining the long-run relationships between the variables. We identify and control for three possible structural breaks in the data that coincide with two economic crises and the biofuel production era. We also estimated the empirical model using a sub-sample from January 1975 to March 1999 and compared the results with the findings in previous studies. Our empirical results confirm the theoretical expectation that agricultural commodities adjust faster than manufacturing prices. The analysis of the impulse response functions shows that after a money supply shock, agricultural prices were the most responsive, followed by energy prices and exchange rates. In both full sample and the sub-sample, the volatility of prices and exchange rates happen during the first 5 to 10 months. The sluggish adjustment of manufacturing prices was evident from the corresponding impulse response functions. The empirical evidence rejects the long-run money neutrality, consistent with the findings of previous empirical studies. Compared to previous models, our empirical model shows that including energy prices will reduce the extent to which agricultural commodities overshoot. Therefore we expect the disturbances to the farm income variability, in response to monetary policy, to be less than what prior model would have estimated. In this regard, energy prices are a stabilizing factor in this model. We find that increased share of biofuel from total fuel consumption would positively affect the overshooting of agricultural prices. So, higher biofuel mandates could reduce the flexibility of the energy prices and therefore have an adverse effect on the farm price stability.

Environmental goals such as urban water conservation and pollution control regulations are typically achieved through price and non-price methods. This dissertation offers an analysis of the non-price approaches, including the rationing of water for particular users, installation of particular technologies, and adoption of particular certifications to achieve environmental goals. To begin, an analysis of California’s 2015 urban water conservation mandate was performed. Results indicate that the average welfare loss of the mandate is $6,107 per acre-foot of restriction in Northern California and $2,757 per acre-foot of restriction in Southern California. In terms of monthly household-level willingness-to-pay (WTP) to avoid the mandate, results illustrate that households have a WTP between $5 and $200 per month. Northern Californian utilities were generally in compliance with their mandated conservation targets, while Southern Californian utilities tended to fall short. The second essay focuses on analyzing how web-based Home Water Use Reports (HWURs) affect household-level water consumption in Folsom City, California. The HWURs under study, offered by the company Dropcountr (DC), share social comparisons, consumption analytics, and conservation information to residential accounts, primarily through digital communications. We found that there is a 7.8% reduction in average daily household water consumption for a typical household under treatment of the DC program. Results suggest that the effect of DC varies by the baseline consumption quintile, the number of months in the program, the day of the week, message type, and enrollment wave. Furthermore, we find that indicate these responses to DC program likely come from the information channel rather than moral suasion. The final essay studies the effectiveness of ISO-14001 on pollution reduction as a non-price pollution control approach. Manufacturers have been increasingly relying on environmental management systems (such as ISO 14001 based ones) to comply with government regulations and reduce waste. In this essay, we investigated the impact of ISO 14001 certification on manufacturers’ toxic release by release level. Results show that ISO 14001 had a negative and statistically significant effect on the top 10% manufacturing sites regarding the on-site toxic release, but it did not reduce off-site toxic release. Therefore, one should not expect ISO 14001 to have a uniform impact on manufacturing sites’ environmental performance. For large firms, encouraging voluntary adoption of ISO 14001 might be an effective government strategy to reduce on-site pollution.

In the reality of the marketplace, a situation often arises where an economic surplus (rent) achieved by agricultural producers is partly taken over by related non-agricultural sectors. In this sense the category of economic rent embraces market failures related to such factors as price flexibility, and thus represents an effect of the misallocation of resources in the agricultural sector. The question therefore arises of whether there exists a developmental model of agriculture in which such market failures would be reduced. Apparently the only coherent response to this need is action taken under the paradigm of sustainable agriculture. This type of model for the sector’s functioning is supported by the objectives of the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), including through support for the supply of public goods in rural areas. This article addresses the question of whether CAP payments for public goods are a desirable systemic solution serving to reduce market failures. It is hypothesised that the financing of activity relating to the supply of public goods lessens the negative impact of the “market treadmill”, since it reduces the unexpected outflows of economic surplus away from farms, caused by agricultural prices. To verify the hypothesis, a panel regression analysis was performed on three sets: the EU-15 countries, the EU-12 countries, and – within Poland – subsectors of farms from six standard output classes. The analysis covered the years 2004–2012. The results of the computations provided confirmation of the hypothesis. It may be stated that an increase in the level of payments for public goods, as a percentage of total subsidies to agriculture, leads on average to a reduction in the drainage of economic rents through prices. It was also found that the financing of public goods under the CAP is more effective in reducing market failures in the EU-15 countries than in the EU-12.

The main aim of this study is to identify the main development problems and the affecting factors of the agricultural sector of Kyrgyzstan. In order to achieve the goal, the relationship between the agricultural sector’s export, import, the employment rate and the amount of loans granted to the agricultural sector was analyzed by the ARDL cointegration method. Annual data for the period 1992-2014 was used in the analysis. According to the empirical results, a 1% increase in exports was found to increase agricultural production by 0.23% in the short term, while a 1% increase in the price index of agricultural products would increase production by 0.41%. In the long run it has been revealed that the production of agricultural products is affected by the increase in prices of agricultural products, the employment rate and the exports of agricultural products. The effect of the bank loans is weak. As a result, the state must implement an appropriate pricing policy in order to develop the agricultural sector.

Petroleum-based conventional fuels dominate the transportation sector due to simple economics. Per unit of energy, few fuels can rival gasoline and diesel in terms of total cost of ownership to the consumer. While some fuels, such as natural gas and electricity, offer lower fuel costs and/or higher vehicle efficiencies than conventional fuels, the fuel price differentials may not be sufficient to offset the higher initial costs of the vehicles, especially if petroleum prices are low. Even when total costs of ownership are similar or slightly lower for alternative fuels than conventional fuels, differences in attributes, such as vehicle range, fueling time, cargo space, vehicle availability, and fuel availability, and consumer loss aversion suggest that more substantial differences in costs are required before consumers are willing to adopt the alternatives. In order for the transportation sector to achieve greater energy sustainability, the traditional economic paradigm for the vehicle purchase decision must expand to incorporate the true benefits of alternatives to conventional fuels, namely the societal benefits of increased energy security, lower criteria pollutant emissions, and lower greenhouse gas emissions. These benefits are not purely economic and yet are crucial to the future of transportation. To capture these benefits in the economic scheme, the societal costs of transportation fuels to the U.S. have been monetized according to measurable impacts. For energy security, the costs are tied to decreased economic output, loss of national gross product, economic strain and volatility, oil supply shocks and price spikes, supply disruption, and import costs. For criteria pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions, the costs are tied to human health impacts, property damage, loss of agricultural productivity, and destruction of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. These societal costs then applied to the use of specific fuels in two representative market segments, representing distinct applications, duty cycles, fuel consumption, and vehicle lifetime. Incorporating the monetized societal costs of transportation fuels in the total costs of ownership enables a fair comparison that reflects the benefits of alternatives to conventional fuels. As a result, these societal costs provide a justifiable framework for a real discussion on incentives and the direction of energy policy, beyond the mere objective of low fuel prices that has pervaded policy discussions to date.

The aim of the study was to identify the influence of external fac­tors on the price dynamics of the domestic market of agri-food products. A separate task was to evaluate the effectiveness of the policy of maintaining price stability and to develop recommendations for its improvement. The influence of external factors (world price, net export, import price) on the domestic price of agri-food products is studied. The analysis covers the peri­od 2003-2021. The influence of external factors on the domestic price of agri-food products in the conditions of the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic is investigated and compared. The effective­ness of measures to stabilize domestic prices in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic is considered. Proposals for maintaining the price stability in the domestic market of agri-food products have been developed.

The objectives of sustainable development in agriculture are emphasizing the worries related to the possibility of ensuring food security at national levels caused by the climate change and agricultural productivity. These worries reflect directly on the international trading partnerships and affect the trading especially with agricultural and food supplies. The current research aims at providing a clear image of the modifications in the trade balance of Romania, recognised mostly as an exporter of raw agricultural products, such as cereals or live animals, at low prices. Romanian agricultural productivity is characterized by an acute weather dependency, due to the low levels of irrigation systems and extensive agricultural systems, combined with extreme heat during summers and low precipitation in winters and springs. Even so, the exports and imports of a country are a key factor in its economic development so they cannot be reduced only to food security and sustainability aspects. In this context, a clear image of Romania’s trade balance offers some insight for the designing of future policy related both to the possibilities of economic and sustainable development.

Parallel to the developments in the global economy, perhaps the most problematic market structure within the liberalization process in the transition economies and in the Turkish economy is highlighted as agricultural product markets. The effects of agricultural product prices on other macroeconomic indicators and the fundamental economic problems such as inflation, income distribution, poverty and unemployment constitute a fundamental dynamic. At this point, public policies and regulations of market processes need to be analyzed in terms of the effects they will cause. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of interventions and regulations on agricultural products markets on market economy and macroeconomic indicators. However, it will be possible to establish the most appropriate agricultural policies possible for the macroeconomic performance of the Turkish economy. In the first section; the impacts and consequences of regulations will be determined by establishing the relationship between agricultural product markets and government interventions. The second part is to analyze these effects and results with the help of data and indicators belonging to the Turkish economy and to analyze the different effects caused by the applied agricultural regulations. The last part is; the discussion of rational agricultural intervention policies and regulations with the least possible negative impact.

Due to the specific features of the land factor, under market conditions, there is a tendency towards income deprivation of farms in relation to their surroundings. One way to improve this situation is to create a system of market institutions for farmer-recipient transactions. The issue of the position of the agricultural producer in the food supply chain is widely described in the literature on the subject. Nevertheless, practical analyses showing the real impact of the marketing position on economic results of farm are still rare. Therefore, the aim of this article is to assess the relationship between market integration and agricultural selling prices and, as a consequence, the level of global output and household income. The analysis is based on primary data from surveys of over 700 small-scale family farms in Poland. The choice of small-scale farms was deliberate, as these entities are the most discriminated against in the food supply chain. Explaining this process is key to improving the economic situation of small-scale farming and constitutes a premise for the objectives of agricultural policy and creating business strategy. The results of the research indicate that there is a positive correlation between the level of integration of an agricultural holding and sales prices for selected groups of agricultural products. This, in turn, leads to the improvement of economic condition of farms more closely integrated with the market.

The agricultural sector plays a crucial role in Guyanas economic development by contributing 21.15% of gross domestic product (GDP). However, the share of the agricultural sector has been gradually decreasing over the years. This monograph offers an update of the OCDEs Producer Support Estimate (PSE) methodology applied to Guyana for 2015-2019. The PSE approach focuses on two main elements of support: (i) the effect of government policy on prices received by agricultural producers, and (ii) the support provided through budgetary transfers to the sector. The market price support (MPS) remained Guyanas main PSE component. Expressed as a share of the total PSE, Guyanas MPS averaged 59% between 2015 and 2018. Following the end of Government transfers to GuySuCo in 2019, which led to a sharp decline in budget transfers to the agricultural sector, it rose to 96%. The main driver of Guyanas MPS remained the import duties in place to protect domestic producers of poultry meat. This report also documents the evolution of agricultural policies-related greenhouse gas emissions in Guyana for the first time. The poultry subsector, which receives most of the policy support in Guyana, emits little. Sugar and rice, on the other hand, are the commodities with the highest GHG emissions per hectare. To conclude, several policy recommendations are presented.

The Saudi agricultural sector relies on diesel for irrigation, which is provided to farmers at a much lower price than the average global price, implying significant opportunity costs. With the aid of soft-coupled power and macro-econometric models, we assess the cost and macroeconomic implications of electrifying irrigation activities in the Saudi agricultural sector. Three electrification scenarios are considered: electrifying each individual farm with a dedicated hybrid renewable micro-grid, electrifying the entire farm cluster with central generation and connecting the entire cluster via transmission to the national grid. Compared with the base-case, connecting the farm cluster to the national grid is found to be the most economical but the least environmentally friendly. The renewable and central generation scenarios are costlier (compared with the transmission scenario) due, respectively, to the high battery costs and gas infrastructure needed.

The agricultural sector plays a crucial role in Jamaicas economic development by contributing to employment (15.93% of the active population in 2019; higher than the regional average) and exports (18% of total exports in 2019). This monograph offers an update of the Producer Support Estimate (PSE) methodology applied to Jamaica for the period 2015-2019 and documents the evolution of agricultural policies-related GHG emissions over the same period. Between 2015 and 2019, the market price support remained, by far, the main PSE component in Jamaica, heavily concentrated in the poultry subsector, followed by sugar. The positive trend in non-distorting General Service Support Estimate (GSSE) observed between 2012 and 2014 came to a halt. %GSSE even slightly decreased between 2015 and 2019, making Jamaica lag even further behind other countries. Concerning the GHG emissions, the picture has not changed significantly either. The poultry and sugar subsectors remained those that received most policy support and those that emitted the most. Several policy recommendations arise from this report, such as a shift away from an over-reliance of policy support on MPS and an increased focus on less-distortive forms of support, such as GSSE. Additional R&D investments, physical infrastructures, climate risk management systems would help address some of the agricultural sectors most pressing productivity and profitability issues. Lastly, it is advisable to diversify and rebalance the support provided by agricultural policies across subsectors to better align agricultural policy goals with GHG emissions reduction objective.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

The convergence of a favorable macroeconomic environment and high prices of primary commodities between 2000 and 2011 contributed to the best performance of agriculture in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) since the 1980s, with steady growth of total factor productivity (TFP) and output per worker and a reduction in the use of input per worker. The end of the upward phase of the commodity cycle in 2011 together with less favorable external markets and a deterioration of the policy environment in several countries, motivates us to revisit the situation of agriculture in LAC in recent years to analyze how these changes have affected its performance. This study applies a framework that uses index numbers together with data envelopment analysis (DEA) to estimate levels of productivity and efficiency, incorporating technical change together with technical (TE) and environmental efficiency (EE) into the decomposition of TFP. The EE index adjusts the TFP measure for pollution, treating GHG emissions as a by-product of the desired crop or livestock outputs. TFP and efficiency of crop and livestock sub-sectors was calculated for 24 LAC countries from 2000 to 2016. Our results show that the period of fast agricultural growth in LAC, driven by technical change and resource reallocation, transformed agriculture in the region leaving it in a better position to cope with the more unfavorable regional macroeconomic environment and the less dynamic global markets observed after 2011.

The interconnections between countries in a globalizing world continue to deepen and are central to the modern international economy. Yet, governance efforts to build resilience to the adverse risks and impacts of climate change are highly fragmented and have not sufficiently focused on these international dimensions. Relationships between people, ecosystems and economies across borders change the scope and nature of the climate adaptation challenge and generate climate risks that are transboundary (Challinor et al., 2017). Climate impacts in one country can create risks and opportunities – and therefore may require adaptation – in other countries, due to cross-border connectivity within regions and globally (Hedlund et al., 2018). These Transboundary Climate Risks (TCRs) may develop in one location remote from the location of their origin. This dynamic necessitates examining the governance structures for managing climate change adaptation. For example, with regard to trade and international supply chains, climate change impacts in one location can disrupt local economies and vulnerable people’s livelihoods, while also affecting the price, quality and availability of goods and services on international markets (Benzie et al., 2018). Coffee is one of the most traded commodities in the world with an immensely globalized supply chain. The global coffee sector involves more than 100 million people in over 80 countries. Coffee production and the livelihoods of smallholder coffee farmers around the world are at risk due to climate change, threatening to disrupt one of the world’s largest agricultural supply chains. The coffee supply chain represents an important arena for public and private actors to negotiate how resource flows should be governed and climate risks should be managed. Currently, neither governments nor private sector actors are sufficiently addressing TCRs (Benzie & Harris, 2020) and no clear mandates exist for actors to take ownership of this issue. Furthermore, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the main body for climate change policy and governance, does not provide any coherent recommendations on how to manage TCRs. This governance gap raises questions about what methods are likely to effectively reduce climate risk and be taken seriously by coffee market stakeholders. This policy brief explores different ways to govern TCRs, and how public and private actors view their effectiveness and legitimacy. Focusing on the Brazilian-German coffee supply chain, the brief presents a deductive framework of five governance pathways through which TCRs could be managed. It is based on 41 semi-structured interviews with 65 Brazilian and German public and private experts, including roasters, traders, cooperatives, associations and certification schemes, as well as government ministries, international development agencies, international organizations and civil society representatives.

Macroeconomic summary Annual inflation continued to rise in the first quarter (8.5%) and again outpaced both market expectations and the technical staff’s projections. Inflation in major consumer price index (CPI) baskets has accelerated year-to-date, rising in March at an annual rate above 3%. Food prices (25.4%) continued to contribute most to rising inflation, mainly affected by a deterioration in external supply and rising costs of agricultural inputs. Increases in transportation prices and in some utility rates (energy and gas) can explain the acceleration in regulated items prices (8.3%). For its part, the increase in inflation excluding food and regulated items (4.5%) would be the result of shocks in supply and external costs that have been more persistent than expected, the effects of indexation, accumulated inflationary pressures from the exchange rate, and a faster-than-anticipated tightening of excess productive capacity. Within the basket excluding food and regulated items, external inflationary pressures have meaningfully impacted on goods prices (6.4%), which have been accelerating since the last quarter of 2021. Annual growth in services prices (3.8%) above the target rate is due primarily to food away from home (14.1%), which was affected by significant increases in food and utilities prices and by a rise in the legal monthly minimum wage. Housing rentals and other services prices also increased, though at rates below 3%. Forecast and expected inflation have increased and remain above the target rate, partly due to external pressures (prices and costs) that have been more persistent than projected in the January report (Graphs 1.1 and 1.2). Russia’s invasion of Ukraine accentuated inflationary pressures, particularly on international prices for certain agricultural goods and inputs, energy, and oil. The current inflation projection assumes international food prices will increase through the middle of this year, then remain high and relatively stable for the remainder of 2022. Recovery in the perishable food supply is forecast to be less dynamic than previously anticipated due to high agricultural input prices. Oil prices should begin to recede starting in the second half of the year, but from higher levels than those presented in the previous report. Given the above, higher forecast inflation could accentuate indexation effects and increase inflation expectations. The reversion of a rebate on value-added tax (VAT) applied to cleaning and hygiene products, alongside the end of Colombia’s COVID-19 health emergency, could increase the prices of those goods. The elimination of excess productive capacity on the forecast horizon, with an output gap close to zero and somewhat higher than projected in January, is another factor to consider. As a consequence, annual inflation is expected to remain at high levels through June. Inflation should then decline, though at a slower pace than projected in the previous report. The adjustment process of the monetary policy rate wouldcontribute to pushing inflation and its expectations toward the target on the forecast horizon. Year-end inflation for 2022 is expected to be around 7.1%, declining to 4.8% in 2023. Economic activity again outperformed expectations. The technical staff’s growth forecast for 2022 has been revised upward from 4.3% to 5% (Graph 1.3). Output increased more than expected in annual terms in the fourth quarter of 2021 (10.7%), driven by domestic demand that came primarily because of private consumption above pre-pandemic levels. Investment also registered a significant recovery without returning to 2019 levels and with mixed performance by component. The trade deficit increased, with significant growth in imports similar to that for exports. The economic tracking indicator (ISE) for January and February suggested that firstquarter output would be higher than previously expected and that the positive demand shock observed at the end of 2021 could be fading slower than anticipated. Imports in consumer goods, retail sales figures, real restaurant and hotel income, and credit card purchases suggest that household spending continues to be dynamic, with levels similar to those registered at the end of 2021. Project launch and housing starts figures and capital goods import data suggest that investment also continues to recover but would remain below pre-pandemic levels. Consumption growth is expected to decelerate over the year from high levels reached over the last two quarters. This would come amid tighter domestic and external financial conditions, the exhaustion of suppressed demand, and a deterioration of available household income due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue to recover, while the trade deficit should tighten alongside high oil and other export commodity prices. Given all of the above, first-quarter economic growth is now expected to be 7.2% (previously 5.2%) and 5.0% for 2022 as a whole (previously 4.3%). Output growth would continue to moderate in 2023 (2.9%, previously 3.1%), converging similar to long-term rates. The technical staff’s revised projections suggest that the output gap would remain at levels close to zero on the forecast horizon but be tighter than forecast in January (Graph 1.4). These estimates continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with geopolitical tensions, external financial conditions, Colombia’s electoral cycle, and the COVID-19 pandemic. External demand is now projected to grow at a slower pace than previously expected amid increased global inflationary pressures, high oil prices, and tighter international financial conditions than forecast in January. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and its inflationary effects on prices for oil and certain agricultural goods and inputs accentuated existing global inflationary pressures originating in supply restrictions and increased international costs. A decline in the supply of Russian oil, low inventory levels, and continued production limits on behalf of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) can explain increased projected oil prices for 2022 (USD 100.8/barrel, previously USD 75.3) and 2023 (USD 86.8/barrel, previously USD 71.2). The forecast trajectory for the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate has increased for this and next year to reflect higher real and expected inflation and positive performance in the labormarket and economic activity. The normalization of monetary policy in various developed and emerging market economies, more persistent supply and cost shocks, and outbreaks of COVID-19 in some Asian countries contributed to a reduction in the average growth outlook for Colombia’s trade partners for 2022 (2.8%, previously 3.3%) and 2023 (2.4%, previously 2.6%). In this context, the projected path for Colombia’s risk premium increased, partly due to increased geopolitical global tensions, less expansionary monetary policy in the United States, an increase in perceived risk for emerging markets, and domestic factors such as accumulated macroeconomic imbalances and political uncertainty. Given all the above, external financial conditions are tighter than projected in January report. External forecasts and their impact on Colombia’s macroeconomic scenario continue to be affected by considerable uncertainty, given the unpredictability of both the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the pandemic. The current macroeconomic scenario, characterized by high real inflation levels, forecast and expected inflation above 3%, and an output gap close to zero, suggests an increased risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored. This scenario offers very limited space for expansionary monetary policy. Domestic demand has been more dynamic than projected in the January report and excess productive capacity would have tightened more quickly than anticipated. Headline and core inflation rose above expectations, reflecting more persistent and important external shocks on supply and costs. The Russian invasion of Ukraine accentuated supply restrictions and pressures on international costs. This partly explains the increase in the inflation forecast trajectory to levels above the target in the next two years. Inflation expectations increased again and are above 3%. All of this increased the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored and could generate indexation effects that move inflation still further from the target rate. This macroeconomic context also implies reduced space for expansionary monetary policy. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) continues to adjust its monetary policy. In its meetings both in March and April of 2022, it decided by majority to increase the monetary policy rate by 100 basis points, bringing it to 6.0% (Graph 1.5).