Добірка наукової літератури з теми "+ 621.314"

The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) is posing a serious threat to the mankind with its massive infection rate and potentially fatality. A total of 212 countries have been infected within the 112 days of first report causing 2 314 621 confirmed cases and 157 847 deaths worldwide. India, the country which is already battling with poverty, malnutrition and high population density is also at the second stage of coronavirus transmission. The situation is worsening and the attention has focused on the prevalence and preventive measures to be taken to protect 1.35 billion people of the largest democratic country of the world. In this review, a study has been designed to evaluate the prevalence, transmission, clinical symptoms, and preventive measures to control the community transmission of this fatal disease. The initial impact of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak on Indian economy has also been dealt with. This study reviews and summarizes the main points of the epidemic in India until the end of April 2020.

PURPOSE NALA (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01808573 ) is a randomized, active-controlled, phase III trial comparing neratinib, an irreversible pan-HER tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI), plus capecitabine (N+C) against lapatinib, a reversible dual TKI, plus capecitabine (L+C) in patients with centrally confirmed HER2-positive, metastatic breast cancer (MBC) with ≥ 2 previous HER2-directed MBC regimens. METHODS Patients, including those with stable, asymptomatic CNS disease, were randomly assigned 1:1 to neratinib (240 mg once every day) plus capecitabine (750 mg/m2 twice a day 14 d/21 d) with loperamide prophylaxis, or to lapatinib (1,250 mg once every day) plus capecitabine (1,000 mg/m2 twice a day 14 d/21 d). Coprimary end points were centrally confirmed progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). NALA was considered positive if either primary end point was met (α split between end points). Secondary end points were time to CNS disease intervention, investigator-assessed PFS, objective response rate (ORR), duration of response (DoR), clinical benefit rate, safety, and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). RESULTS A total of 621 patients from 28 countries were randomly assigned (N+C, n = 307; L+C, n = 314). Centrally reviewed PFS was improved with N+C (hazard ratio [HR], 0.76; 95% CI, 0.63 to 0.93; stratified log-rank P = .0059). The OS HR was 0.88 (95% CI, 0.72 to 1.07; P = .2098). Fewer interventions for CNS disease occurred with N+C versus L+C (cumulative incidence, 22.8% v 29.2%; P = .043). ORRs were N+C 32.8% (95% CI, 27.1 to 38.9) and L+C 26.7% (95% CI, 21.5 to 32.4; P = .1201); median DoR was 8.5 versus 5.6 months, respectively (HR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.74; P = .0004). The most common all-grade adverse events were diarrhea (N+C 83% v L+C 66%) and nausea (53% v 42%). Discontinuation rates and HRQoL were similar between groups. CONCLUSION N+C significantly improved PFS and time to intervention for CNS disease versus L+C. No new N+C safety signals were observed.

1002 Background: NALA (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01808573) is a multinational, randomized, open-label, phase III trial of neratinib (an irreversible pan-HER tyrosine kinase inhibitor [TKI]) + capecitabine (N+C) vs lapatinib (a reversible dual TKI) + capecitabine (L+C) in patients with stage IV HER2+ metastatic breast cancer (MBC) who had received ≥2 prior HER2-directed regimens for MBC. Methods: Patients were randomized 1:1 to N (240 mg qd po) + C (750 mg/m2 bid po) or L (1250 mg qd po) + C (1000 mg/m2 bid po). Co-primary endpoints were centrally assessed progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Secondary endpoints were investigator-assessed PFS; objective response rate (ORR); duration of response (DoR); clinical benefit rate (CBR); time to intervention for symptomatic metastatic central nervous system (CNS) disease; safety; and patient-reported health outcomes. Results: 621 patients were randomized (307 to N+C; 314 to L+C). The risk of disease progression or death was reduced by 24% with N+C vs L+C (HR = 0.76; 95% CI 0.63–0.93; p = 0.006); 6- and 12-month PFS rates were 47.2% vs 37.8% and 28.8% vs 14.8% for N+C vs L+C, respectively. OS rates at 6 and 12 months were 90.2% vs 87.5% and 72.5% vs 66.7% for N+C vs L+C, respectively (HR = 0.88; 95% CI 0.72–1.07; p = 0.2086). ORR in patients with measurable disease at screening was improved with N+C vs L+C (32.8% vs 26.7%; p = 0.1201), as was CBR (44.5% vs 35.6%; p = 0.0328) and DoR (HR = 0.50; 95% CI 0.33–0.74; p = 0.0004). Time to intervention for symptomatic CNS disease (overall cumulative incidence 22.8% vs 29.2%; p = 0.043) was delayed with N+C vs L+C. Treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) were similar between arms, but there was a higher rate of grade 3 diarrhea with N+C vs L+C (24.4% vs 12.5%). TEAEs leading to neratinib/lapatinib discontinuation were lower with neratinib (10.9%) than with lapatinib (14.5%). Conclusions: N+C significantly improved PFS with a trend towards improved OS vs L+C. N+C also resulted in a delayed time to intervention for symptomatic CNS disease. Tolerability was similar between the two arms, with no new safety signals observed. Clinical trial information: NCT01808573.

The aim of the study was to determine the factor structure of the Religious Problem-Solving Scale in an African population. The sample included 624 students: 314 Grade 12, secondary school students and 310 third year social science university students in South Africa. The principal component analysis with varimax rotation yielded three components accounting for 64% of the total variance. The first factor contained 12 items from the Deferring scale, the second 12 items of the Self-Directing scale and the third factor 12 items from the Collaborative scale. The Deferring rather than the Collaborative religious problem-solving style seems to be more prevalent in this African sample than among western subjects.

Optimized fixed-time embryo transfer (FTET) protocols for synchronization of recipients have the potential to improve the overall efficiency and profitability of embryo transfer (ET) programs. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the effect of dose of gonadotrophin-releasing hormone (GnRH) at initiation of a 5-day synchronization protocol for FTET. Holstein heifers (n=2689) at two locations were synchronized using a 5-day CO-Synch protocol as follows: Day 0: CIDR inserted, Day 5: CIDR removed, prostaglandin (PG)F2α treatment (500μg cloprostenol), Day 6: PGF2α treatment, Day 8: GnRH (100μg of gonadorelin). On Day 0, at the time of CIDR insertion, heifers were assigned in a completely randomised design to the following groups: Single (a single dose of GnRH; 100μg of gonadorelin), Double (200μg of gonadorelin) or No GnRH (control). All heifers received an Estrotect patch placed on Day 5 and evaluated for signs of oestrus on Day 8. At location A, heifers were evaluated by ultrasonography 5 days after GnRH to determine presence and size of corpus luteum (CL), whereas at location B presence and location of CL were determined by transrectal palpation at the time of transfer. Heifers with a CL received an embryo 7±1 days after GnRH administration, and pregnancy was determined by ultrasonography 41 and 63 days after GnRH. Data were analysed by generalized linear mixed models. Oestrus expression was greater in heifers that received Single and Double GnRH than in the No GnRH group (P=0.001). Similarly, utilisation rate (number transferred per number treated) was greater for heifers in the Single and Double GnRH group than for those in the No GnRH group (P=0.02). Pregnancy data were analysed for a subset of recipients using data from Day 41 (n=2267) and Day 63 (n=2042). The analysis of fertility outcomes included as covariates the type of embryo (invitro fresh or frozen and invivo fresh or frozen), embryo stage, embryo quality, interval from GnRH to transfer, and oestrus expression. Pregnancies per embryo transfer (P/ET) at Days 41 and 63 were not different between treatment groups (P=0.86), and there was no interaction between type of embryo and treatment (P>0.15). Pregnancy loss between Days 41 and 63 was not different (P=0.49) between treatments groups. In conclusion, the removal of the initial GnRH from a 5-day FTET protocol resulted in a slight but significant reduction in the utilisation rate and the percentage of heifers showing oestrus. However, there was no detrimental effect on fertility. As a result, the overall cost of the FTET program can be reduced by eliminating the need for the initial GnRH treatment without compromising fertility. Table 1.Reproductive performance in recipients receiving different doses of gonadotrophin-releasing hormone (GnRH) at initiation of the synchronization protocol Treatment Oestrus (n) Utilisation rate (n) P/ET1 D41 (n) P/ET D63 (n) Pregnancy loss (n) No GnRH 69.2%B (621/898) 85.0%B (763/898) 41.6% (308/740) 39.9% (268/672) 4.3% (12/280) Single GnRH 76.1%A (685/900) 88.8%A (799/900) 42.7% (329/770) 39.5% (272/689) 6.5% (19/291) Double GnRH 75.3%A (671/891) 88.7%A (790/891) 41.5% (314/757) 38.9% (265/681) 5.4% (15/280) A,BValues with different superscripts within a column differ (P<0.05). 1P/ET=pregnancies per embryo transfer.

In the two years (625-626 AH) (1227-1228 AD), Ibn Almugawer gave a precise description of Mecca Almukaramah in his era, pointing to the importance of Mecca Almukaramah and its religious rank. The material presented by him is of great importance because it filled a gap in the traveling and geographical information of Mecca Almukaramah at the beginning of the seventh century AH (13 AD), especially since Ibn Almugawer was not just a chatty and a historian, but also a traveler with accurate observation. In view of the importance of the book from the scientific and historical point of view, we have decided to re-consult it, especially to its most documented editions (Oscar Lofgren Verification), to explore its material about Makkah Almukaramah and to vet some of its details and references that reflect an important phase in the history of Mecca Almukaramah, for the paucity of the writing about and the disturbance of the available historical material around it.

Introduction: In high-income countries, vomiting often impedes oral rehydration therapy, leading to intravenous rehydration fluid administration to children with acute gastroenteritis. Ondansetron administration reduces vomiting and intravenous fluid administration in this population. We evaluated whether ondansetron is similarly effective when employed in Pakistan. Methods: In this 2-hospital, double-blind, placebo-controlled, emergency department-based, randomized trial, we recruited children aged 0·5 to 5·0 years, without dehydration, who had diarrhea and 1 episode of vomiting within 4 hours of arrival. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1), via an internet-based randomization service, using a stratified, variable block randomization scheme, to receive a single dose of oral ondansetron or placebo. The primary endpoint was intravenous rehydration (administration of 20 ml/kg over 4 hours of an isotonic fluid) within 72 hours of randomization. All randomized children were analysed. Results: From July 3, 2014, to January 12, 2017, 626 children were randomized. Intravenous rehydration was provided to 10.8% (34/314) and 10.3% (27/312) of children administered placebo and ondansetron, respectively (OR: 0.946; 95% CI: 0.564, 1.587; P=0.834). A regression model fitted with treatment group and adjusted for antiemetic administration and vomiting frequency in the preceding 24 hours, yielded similar results; OR=0.952; 95% CI: 0.570, 1.589; P=0.850. There was no evidence of interaction between treatment group and age (P=0.974), 3 diarrheal stools in the preceding 24 hours (P=0.983) or 3 vomits in the preceding 24 hours (P=0.554). During the 4-hour study observation period, 24.0% (75/314) and 19.6% (61/312) of children in the placebo and ondansetron groups vomited, respectively; OR: 0.774; 95%CI: 0.528, 1.133; P=0.187. Conclusion: Ondansetron administration did not significantly reduce intravenous rehydration use, suggesting that in children without dehydration, ondansetron administration does not significantly alter the disease course and should not be administered to this group of children.

We assessed the different sets of diagnostic criteria for primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS), in order to determine their sensitivity when applied to a cohort of 261 PPMS patients. According to the Thompson criteria, 168 patients (64.4%) had definite PPMS, 84 patients (32.2%) had probable PPMS, and nine patients (3.4%) had possible PPMS; according to the McDonald criteria, 180 patients (69%) had PPMS; according to the revised McDonald criteria, 194 patients (74.3%) had PPMS. Our findings indicate that the revised McDonald criteria are more sensitive than the original McDonald criteria, but less sensitive than the Thompson criteria. Multiple Sclerosis 2007; 13: 622-625. http://msj.sagepub.com

Accreditation suggests an organisation has met standards of quality through extensive self-study and external review. This study examines the influence of Commission on Accreditation for Law Enforcement Agencies (CALEA) accreditation on citizen complaints. We identified the accredited status of the agencies included in the 2007 LEMAS report as CALEA-accredited or non-accredited resulting in a final sample size for this study of 628 agencies (CALEA accredited = 314, non-accredited = 314). Findings suggest that no difference exists between CALEA-accredited agencies and non-accredited agencies in: (1) the total number of complaints received; (2) the number of sustained citizen complaints.

Cette etude a pour but d'etudier l'effet des parametres et de la composition chimique sur la constitution du bain de fusion en soudage tig. L'influence du courant, de la vitesse de soudage, de la vitesse de fil, etc. Sur les caracteristiques geometriques du cordon (penetration, p, largeur, l, et le rapport p/l) est etudiee en soudage de l'inconel 625. L'influence des parametres sur la structure de solidification est aussi etudiee. Une modelisation statistique est egalement elaboree pour prevoir la variation des aspects morphologiques du cordon en fonction des parametres de soudage. L'influence du soufre est etudiee en soudage des aciers inoxydables 304 et 316. Les differents mouvements du liquide en fonction de la teneur en soufre sont visualises en soudage en courant pulse. L'effet du soufre sur la penetration et sur le rapport p/l est etudie en relation avec les parametres de soudage; il en est de meme pour les defauts de cordon et pour la topologie de surface. L'interaction entre les parametres de soudage est egalement etudiee en soudage de ces aciers. L'ensemble des resultats de ce travail fait ressortir l'importance des parametres de soudage et de la teneur en soufre en ce qui concerne la constitution du bain de fusion. L'interaction etroite entre les parametres de soudage est egalement identifiee

The aim of this thesis is to model the extrusion process conditions for some aluminium alloys using Finite Element Modelling (FEM) program. All the simulations were performed with the implicit finite element code FORGE20 (2-D) and FORGE3® (3-D). In this work only the alloys AA2024, AA2014, Al-1 %Cu and AA6063 where experimental work is available were considered. The FORGE2® program was used to investigate and select an appropriate flow stress constitutive equation to describe the material behaviour to model the process conditions. The extrusion pressure and the temperature rise were predicted and the pressure-displacement trace and the events which take place in the deformed material during the extrusion process were also simulated. The effect of the initial billet temperature on friction, and the extent of the surface zone affected by surface friction and the consequence changes in material flow were investigated. The changes in the subgrain size during quasi-static deformation were predicted. This allows a construction of velocity-displacement profiles which would ensure consistent properties over the length of the extrudate. The FORGE3® program was used to simulate the effect of changing the die geometry on material flow during extrusion for rod, shapes and tube extrusion and the effect of the initial temperature on the deformation zone. The load required, temperature evolution, surface formation of the extrudate and material flow during the process, were also predicted. These included solid sections and the production of tubes using bridge die. Two most commonly used constitutiveflow stress equations,the Zener-Hollomon and the Norton-Hoff were analysed and compared with experimental results. It was found that the Zener-Hollomon relationship provided a better representation of the experimental flow stress under high working conditions than the Norton-Hoff relationship. FEM has been successfully applied to model the deformation patterns in the load/displacement traces and temperature evolution during the extrusion cycle. The effect of the initial billet temperature on the deformation zone pattern and its consequent effect on friction using both numerical simulation and experimental work are presented. A specific function relationship to measure directly interfacial friction under conditions approaching those encountered in the quasi-static deformation process is described. The results revealed that the friction factor increases with increase in initial billet temperature and varies during the extrusion cycle. The dead metal zone (DMZ) is observed to vary in form and has a greater volume at high temperatures. FEM proved to be a very effective and efficient way to design the ram speed profile to control the extrudate properties. The control of the properties of the extrudate under a constant (Z) parameter resulted in a more uniform distribution of the subgrain size across and along the extrudate cross-section. Furthermore, the speed profile under constant Z conditions resulted in an improved extrusion speed and hence greater productivity coupled with better control of the subgrain size and the exit temperature. This new extrusion process is termed iso-Z Extrusion, and is considered an improvement on Iso-Thermal extrusion. The usefulness and the limitation of FEM when modelling complex shapes are discussed. Methods to assess the difficulty of hollow and section shapes are presented. The work also illustrates the essentials of numerical analysis in the comprehension of the thermo-mechanical events occurring during extrusion through bridge and shape dies. Results are presented for velocity distribution in the extrusion chamber, Iso-temperature contours and pressure/displacement traces. It is shown that for most of the shapes investigated, the material making up the extrudate cross-sections originated from virgin material within the billet. The outside surface of the extrudate originates from the material moving along the DMZ and the core of the extrudate from the central deformation zone. When simulating tube extrusion, it is shown that the FE program is able to predict the pressure requirements: the pressure/displacement trace showing a double peak for tube extrusion which is discussed in some detail. The FE program appears to predict all the major characteristics of the flow observed macroscopically.

This work concerns some problems in the area of survival analysis that arise in real clinical or epidemiological studies. In particular, we approach the problem of estimating the survival function based on interval-censored data or doubly-censored data. We will start defining these concepts and presenting a brief review of different methodologies to deal with this kind of censoring patterns.
Survival analysis is the term used to describe the analysis of data that correspond to the time from a well defined origin time until the occurrence of some particular event of interest. This event need not necessarily be death, but could, for example, be the response to a treatment, remission from a disease, or the occurrence of a symptom

Materials need to be designed under certain conditions to withstand high thermal gradients to operate at high temperature environments. Many advanced gas cooled reactor (AGR) power plant components with operating temperatures in the range of 500-650 °C undergo creep-fatigue loading conditions. These components may be subject to isothermal low cycle fatigue (LCF) and thermo mechanical fatigue (TMF) damages due to the cyclic operation of power plant caused by the start-up and shutdown processes and due to the fluctuation of energy demand in daily operation. Hence, the influence of these cyclic loads induced mechanically and thermally, on the different structural components need to be carefully monitored and analysed in order to prevent failure and ensure safe operating conditions of critical units. The material Type 316 SS with cast number S7646, widely used in this type of components, is investigated in this project. The aim of this research is to conduct experimental tests to obtain quality stress-strain data for the material under investigation under cyclic plasticity in isothermal and an-isothermal tests using the available testing machine systems in the University of Imperial College London. The data obtained from experimental results are then utilised to develop advanced novel finite element damage models in a creep/fatigue loading environment in order to predict the cyclic behaviour under LCF conditions. Finally, the results of cyclic data derived from isothermal tests were used to predict the thermo mechanical fatigue behaviour for this alloy. The LCF-TMF testing unit, Instron 8801 with a temperature uniformity of less than ±10°C within the gauge section of the specimens were employed to conduct the experimental tests. Fully-reversed, strain-controlled isothermal tests were conducted at 500°C and 650°C for the strain ranges of ∆ɛ=±0.4%, ±0.8%, ±1.0% and ±01.2%. Strain-controlled in-phase (IP) thermo-mechanical fatigue tests were conducted on the same material and the temperature was cycled between 500°C and 650°C. Additionally, the creep-fatigue interactions were investigated with the introduction of symmetrical hold time at maximum strains in tension and compression under both LCF-TMF tests. From the investigation and the analysis of the experimental stress-strain data, three phases are observed when the cyclic stress responses are plotted; cyclic hardening, stabilisation and damage evolution. In the final stage of the behaviour of the material, a nonlinear decrease of the peak stress level was observed which was initiated by the presence of micro-crack and the failure occurred as the crack propagated. The evolution of inelastic strain energy density, ∆w, against the number of cycles, N, was used to determine the number of cycles at which the material stabilised, N_sta , the damage initiated, N_i and the failure occurred,N_f. The introduction of the hold time in both tension and compression strains in the LCF and TMF tests, produced an increase in the plastic strain range which subsequently increased the inelastic strain energy density and slightly reduced the peak flow stress when compared with the continues cyclic tests. The stress relaxation was observed when the hold time was introduced. The amount of stress relaxation was dependent on the test temperature and the imposed strain amplitude and the same trend was found when different strain ranges were examined. The cyclic behaviour of the Type 316 steel was further studied by analysing and performing microstructural investigations using the scanning electron microscope (SEM). The metallographic and the fractographic studies revealed that in all LCF-TMF tests the cracks mostly initiated in transgranular mode and propagated in either transgranular (under continuous cyclic loading) or in a mixed mode (under symmetric dwell period). The comparison of the metallographic and the fractographic studies of the LCF and TMF tests under both conditions (i.e. with and without dwell period) highlighted that the proportion of intergranular cracking increases with decrease in frequency, i.e. from 0.01Hz to 0.001Hz. Furthermore, the transgranular fatigue process dominates at high frequencies whereas the intergranular time dependent mechanism governs at low frequencies, low imposed mechanical strain amplitude and they both act together at intermediate frequencies and imposed mechanical strain amplitude. A constitutive model based on isotropic and nonlinear kinematic hardening rules was used to replicate numerically the cyclic structural behaviour of the material. A user-defined subroutine was developed and implemented in the finite element software, ABAQUS to predict the cyclic hardening, the stress relaxation during hold time and finally to demonstrate the damage evolution once the damage initiated. The final stage of the material behaviour (i.e. failure) was simulated numerically for both LCF and TMF tests conducted with and without hold time where for the tests with continuous cyclic loading (without hold time) a hysteresis energy-based phenomenological model was implemented in a USDFLD subroutine. Further, this model in combination with the creep damage model based on the time-fraction law were employed simultaneously to replicate the experimental results in which the hold time was introduced. In the end, the FE results were compared with the experimental results and the minor deviations observed in e.g. the first and stabilised hysteresis loops under TMF conditions or in the FE hysteresis damages, could be minimised by conducting further isothermal tests to define additional material properties at intermediate temperatures and performing tests at various strain ranges respectively.

The thesis focuses on the scope, content, sources and applicability of the obligation aut dedere aut judicare pertaining to certain international crimes such as genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity, the prohibition of torture, drug trafficking, hijacking of civil aviation and terrorist bombing and financing of terrorism in international law. The general framework of the thesis focuses on the legal base of the obligation aut dedere aut judicare, the scope and content of the obligation, the triggering mechanisms of the duty, and state responsibility for preaches of the obligation. The relevant core crimes and transnational crimes are examined in relation to the obligation, based on and formulated in various multilateral, widely-ratified conventions and state practice. State practice and opinio juris indicate that a customary aut dedere aut judicare duty has formed or crystallized for certain international crimes such as the prohibition of torture, genocide, grave breaches of international humanitarian law, including war crimes, and crimes against humanity. As regards the offences against the safety of civil aviation and hijacking, terrorism-related crimes, international drug trafficking, and crimes against UN personnel, the evidence is mixed and it is more appropriate to conclude that an emerging custom of the obligation 'extradite-or-prosecute' for these crimes is forming.

The Hydraulic Fracturing process and its engineering applications have been studied and reported in this thesis. The Distinct Element Method (DEM) was adopted as the main and preferred numerical technique because of its distinctive features and advantages. This method allows the phenomenon to be modelled and viewed microscopically at the inter-particle level by conceptualising the rock mass as an assembly of discrete particles interacting with each other via contacts. This method allows for a more detailed and dynamic monitoring of the hydraulic fracturing process. Sequel to a detailed review on the study of the hydraulic fracturing phenomenon, the research was extended to investigate specific cases of applications of hydraulic fracturing in geo-mechanical and environmental problems. Examples of such cases include carbon dioxide injection and storage in a reservoir system, and the behaviour of naturally occurring faults subjected to hydrostatic fluid pressures. The key factors governing the geo-mechanical responses of porous media (rocks), including reservoir formations were identified and further examined to ascertain the following: the role and inter-relationship between operating and material/fluid variables such as injection flow rate, fluid pressure, and interstitial velocity; type and pattern of fracture propagation; influence of environmental conditions as well as the configuration of the well-reservoir system, amongst others. Because of broad similarities in enabling conditions, analyses and applications of the phenomenon were also extended to study the sand production process. However, since the emphasis of the study was on identifying and examining the controlling variables as well as establishing patterns of sanding production rates rather than the study of the cavitation process, investigations were conducted using a finite element procedure; moreover, the limit of computational capacity has prevented a large scale DEM model for such problems. Modelling results show that fracturing mode, pattern and intensity are highly dependent on operating and environmental conditions; the reservoir erosion processes also indicate likewise tendencies. The numerical modelling techniques adopted and results obtained facilitate an improved understanding of geo-mechanical mechanisms at sub-surface systems, and could be further improved for industrial applications, such as site evaluation and assessment of the efficiency of stimulation techniques.

The knee joint is a key structure of the human locomotor system. The knowledge of how each single anatomical structure of the knee contributes to determine the physiological function of the knee, is of fundamental importance for the development of new prostheses and novel clinical, surgical, and rehabilitative procedures. In this context, a modelling approach is necessary to estimate the biomechanic function of each anatomical structure during daily living activities. The main aim of this study was to obtain a subject-specific model of the knee joint of a selected healthy subject. In particular, 3D models of the cruciate ligaments and of the tibio-femoral articular contact were proposed and developed using accurate bony geometries and kinematics reliably recorded by means of nuclear magnetic resonance and 3D video-fluoroscopy from the selected subject. Regarding the model of the cruciate ligaments, each ligament was modelled with 25 linear-elastic elements paying particular attention to the anatomical twisting of the fibres. The devised model was as subject-specific as possible. The geometrical parameters were directly estimated from the experimental measurements, whereas the only mechanical parameter of the model, the elastic modulus, had to be considered from the literature because of the invasiveness of the needed measurements. Thus, the developed model was employed for simulations of stability tests and during living activities. Physiologically meaningful results were always obtained. Nevertheless, the lack of subject-specific mechanical characterization induced to design and partially develop a novel experimental method to characterize the mechanics of the human cruciate ligaments in living healthy subjects. Moreover, using the same subject-specific data, the tibio-femoral articular interaction was modelled investigating the location of the contact point during the execution of daily motor tasks and the contact area at the full extension with and without the whole body weight of the subject. Two different approaches were implemented and their efficiency was evaluated. Thus, pros and cons of each approach were discussed in order to suggest future improvements of this methodologies. The final results of this study will contribute to produce useful methodologies for the investigation of the in-vivo function and pathology of the knee joint during the execution of daily living activities. Thus, the developed methodologies will be useful tools for the development of new prostheses, tools and procedures both in research field and in diagnostic, surgical and rehabilitative fields.

Psychophysiological Insomnia (PI) is characterized by morbid fear of insomnia, mental arousal and heightened somatic tension in bed (ICSD- 2). The most widely reported epidemiological study reports a prevalence of insomnia as between 9% and 15% (Ohayon 2002) and most studies conducted to date looking at prevalence report similar numbers. Espie and colleagues (2006) in their review paper outlined a pathway into PI with three main components; selective attention to sleep, explicit intention to sleep and sleep effort. This model moves forward from Espie’s (2002) Psychobiological Inhibition Model of insomnia which considered both the psychological and physiological states of normal sleep and how these are affected in insomnia. The Attention-Intention-Effort (A-I-E) Model further addresses the loss of automaticity and flexibility in insomnia but moves towards specifically outlining the processes which are present in PI as compared to the good sleeper (GS). The first step in the A-I-E is selective attention to sleep, more commonly reported as attention bias to sleep. The University of Glasgow have pioneered the work establishing this attention bias towards sleep as an indicator in insomnia by using several cognitive probe paradigms presenting neutral and sleep related words and images to PI and GS (Jones et al 2005, Marchetti et al 2006, MacMahon et al 2006, Woods et al 2009). The various paradigms applied to understanding attention bias in PI have confirmed that PI will selectively attend to sleep related stimuli compared to neutral and to GS. We now find ourselves at the juncture of wanting to further understand the underlying mechanism to this attention bias as the previous research has mainly attributed it to an anxiety provoked response. This has its basis in Harvey’s (2002) cognitive model of insomnia which makes comparisons with insomnia and anxiety disorder as well as the absence of de-arousal, both physiological and cognitive, in insomnia as outlined in Espie’s (2002) Psychobiological Inhibition Model. This thesis aims to further our understanding and answer our questions regarding the underlying mechanisms of attention bias in insomnia by addressing the time course, specificity and valence of attention bias in insomnia. Four experiments are used to address these three factors. Firstly, the specificity of AB is examined and compares the performance of GS and those going through a period of acute insomnia on a modified pictorial Posner paradigm in Experiment 1. Experiments 2 and 3 move on from Woods et al (2009) looking at AB to sleep and day times presented on an alarm clock using another modified Posner paradigm. By adding day times into the experiment and adjusting the presentation time of the salient stimuli we address the time course and valence questions. Finally, in experiment 4, an eye tracking experiment, which is new to insomnia research, has been developed where positive sleep, negative sleep and neutral words are presented to PI and GS. . This definitive experiment addresses factors of time course and valence by experimentally manipulating the saliency of the stimuli presented as well as monitoring over a continuous period of presentation. Overall, the findings of this thesis confirm that PI will selectively attend to salient stimuli at shorter presentation times but this attention bias changes into a performance deficit as presentation time increases. This prompts consideration on how the nature of the tasks are exposing elusive performance impairments in insomnia. Also, the saliency of stimuli representing the day presented to PI opens discussion into the 24 hour nature of PI.

Abstract The most common problem when machining titanium using traditional metal cutting processes is that tools rapidly wear out and need to be replaced. This study examines the ability of a pure water jet to machine Ti-6Al-4V via simulations using ABAQUS’s Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH). These simulations are then validated experimentally at two pressures, 138 MPa and 317 MPa. Using a Maxiem water jet built by Omax, experiments are conducted by creating a series of 5 lines that are 5 inches (127 mm) long placed 0.5 inches (12.7 mm) apart on a 1 mm thick Ti-6Al-4V workpiece. Predictive modeling is also conducted using the two additional pressures 400 MPa and 621 MPa as well as three orifice diameters 0.254 mm, 0.3556 mm, and 0.4572 mm. The simulations are validated at both pressures and had a percent error less than 2.6% which were within the standard deviation of the experimental results. The predictive modeling indicates that the pressures above 317 MPa create a near identical percent increase from the orifice diameter but the kerf has a more noticeable decrease in width of cut as the pressure increases. The 138 MPa has the smoothest surface profile compared to the other pressures. The volume of removed material decreases as the pressure increases but the material removal rate (MRR) increases as the pressure increases. This is due to the velocity of the water increasing as the pressure increases causing a lower run time. The 621 MPa is the best pressure to machine Ti-6Al-4V as it has a better MRR than the other pressures used in the predictive modelling.

We studied the biochemical composition, nutritive value of the green mass and prepared hay from Ro-manian cultivars of perennial ryegrass, Lolium perenne L. „Mara” and „Măgura” grown in monoculture on the experimental plot of the National Botanical Garden (Institute) “Alexandru Ciubotaru”, Chisinau, R. Mol-dova. Results revealed that dry matter of harvested green mass contained 98-116 g/kg CP, 299-326 g/kg CF, 71-77 g/kg ash, 329-353 g/kg ADF, 546-593 g/kg NDF, 38-40 g/kg ADL, 291-313 g/kg Cel, 217-240 g/kg HC, with nutritive and energy value 60.9-65.3 % DMD, 60.1-64.8 % ODM, RFV=96-108, 12.12-12.45 MJ/kg DE, 9.95- 10.23 MJ/kg ME and 5.97-6.25 MJ/kg NEl. The biochemical composition, nutritive and energy va-lue of prepared hay: 94-110 g/kg CP, 351-385 g/kg CF, 79-82 g/kg ash, 390-423 g/kg ADF, 631-689 g/kg NDF, 46-50 g/kg ADL, 344-373g/kg Cel, 241-266 g/kg HC, RFV=76-86, 11.13-11.61 MJ/kg DE, 9.14- 9.53 MJ/kg ME and 5.17-5.55 MJ/kg NEl. The biochemical methane potential of green mass substrates reached 338-344 L/kg organic matter. The studied cultivars of Lolium perennec could be used in the Republic of Mol-dova for the restoration of degraded permanent grasslands, as a component of the mix of grasses and legumes for the creation of temporary grasslands, the harvested biomass can be used as feed for farm animals or as substrate in biogas generator for renewable energy production.

The Annual Report on Migration and Asylum 2016 provides an overview of trends, policy developments and significant debates in the area of asylum and migration during 2016 in Ireland. Some important developments in 2016 included: The International Protection Act 2015 was commenced throughout 2016. The single application procedure under the Act came into operation from 31 December 2016. The International Protection Office (IPO) replaced the Office of the Refugee Applications Commissioner (ORAC) from 31 December 2016. The first instance appeals body, the International Protection Appeals Tribunal (IPAT), replacing the Refugee Appeals Tribunal (RAT), was established on 31 December 2016. An online appointments system for all registrations at the Registration Office in Dublin was introduced. An electronic Employment Permits Online System (EPOS) was introduced. The Irish Short Stay Visa Waiver Programme was extended for a further five years to October 2021. The Second National Action Plan to Prevent and Combat Human Trafficking was published. 2016 was the first full year of implementation of the Irish Refugee Protection Programme (IRPP). A total of 240 persons were relocated to Ireland from Greece under the relocation strand of the programme and 356 persons were resettled to Ireland. Following an Oireachtas motion, the Government agreed to allocate up to 200 places to unaccompanied minors who had been living in the former migrant camp in Calais and who expressed a wish to come to Ireland. This figure is included in the overall total under the IRPP. Ireland and Jordan were appointed as co-facilitators in February 2016 to conduct preparatory negotiations for the UN high level Summit for Refugees and Migrants. The New York Declaration, of September 2016, sets out plans to start negotiations for a global compact for safe, orderly and regular migration and a global compact for refugees to be adopted in 2018. Key figures for 2016: There were approximately 115,000 non-EEA nationals with permission to remain in Ireland in 2016 compared to 114,000 at the end of 2015. Net inward migration for non-EU nationals is estimated to be 15,700. The number of newly arriving immigrants increased year-on-year to 84,600 at April 2017 from 82,300 at end April 2016. Non-EU nationals represented 34.8 per cent of this total at end April 2017. A total of 104,572 visas, both long stay and short stay, were issued in 2016. Approximately 4,127 persons were refused entry to Ireland at the external borders. Of these, 396 were subsequently admitted to pursue a protection application. 428 persons were returned from Ireland as part of forced return measures, with 187 availing of voluntary return, of which 143 were assisted by the International Organization for Migration Assisted Voluntary Return Programme. There were 532 permissions of leave to remain granted under section 3 of the Immigration Act 1999 during 2016. A total of 2,244 applications for refugee status were received in 2016, a drop of 32 per cent from 2015 (3,276). 641 subsidiary protection cases were processed and 431 new applications for subsidiary protection were submitted. 358 applications for family reunification in respect of recognised refugees were received. A total of 95 alleged trafficking victims were identified, compared with 78 in 2015.

Heat production (HP) or energy expenditure for activity (EEa) is of fundamental nutritional importance for livestock because it determines the proportion of ingested nutrients available for productive functions. Previous estimates of EEa are unreliable and vary widely with different indirect methodologies. This leads to erroneous nutritional strategies, especially when intake on pasture does not meet nutritional requirements and supplementation is necessary for acceptable production. Therefore, the objective of this project was to measure EEa in different classes of livestock (beef cattle and goats) over a wide range of ecological and management conditions to develop and evaluate simple means of prediction. In the first study in Israel, small frame (SF) and large frame (LF) cows (268 and 581 kg) were monitored during spring, summer, and autumn. Feed intake by SF cows per unit of metabolic weight was greater (P < 0.001) than that by LF cows in both spring and summer and their apparent selection of higher quality herbage in spring was greater (P < 0.10) than that of LF cows. SF cows grazed more hours per day and walked longer distances than the LF cows during all seasons. The coefficient of specific costs of activities (kJ•kg BW-0.75•d-1) and of locomotion (J•kg BW-0.75•m-1) were smaller for the SF cows. In the second study, cows were monitored in March, May, and September when they grazed relatively large plots, 135 and 78 ha. Energy cost coefficients of standing, grazing, and horizontal locomotion derived were similar to those of the previous study based on data from smaller plots. However, the energy costs of walking idle and of vertical locomotion were greater than those found by Brosh et al. (2006) but similar to those found by Aharoni et al. (2009). In the third study, cows were monitored in February and May in a 78-ha plot with an average slope of 15.5°, whereas average plot slopes of the former studies ranged between 4.3 and 6.9°. Energy cost coefficients of standing, grazing, and walking idle were greater than those calculated in the previous studies. However, the estimated energy costs of locomotion were lower in the steeper plot. A comparison on a similar HP basis, i.e., similar metabolizable energy (ME) intake, shows that the daily energy spent on activities in relation to daily HP increased by 27% as the average plot slope increased from 5.8 and 6.02 to 15.5°. In the fourth study, cows grazing in a woodland habitat were monitored as in previous studies in December, March, and July. Data analysis is in progress. In the first US experiment, Boer and Spanish does with two kids were used in an experiment beginning in late spring at an average of 24 days after kidding. Two does of each breed resided in eight 0.5-ha grass/forb pastures. Periods of 56, 60, 63, 64, and 73 days in length corresponded to mid-lactation, early post-weaning, the late dry period, early gestation, and mid-gestation. EEa expressed as a percentage of the ME requirement for maintenance plus activity in confinement (EEa%) was not influenced by stocking rate, breed, or period, averaging 49%. Behavioral activities (e.g., time spent grazing, walking, and idle, distance traveled) were not highly related to EEa%, although no-intercept regressions against time spent grazing/eating and grazing/eating plus walking indicated an increase in EEa% of 5.8 and 5.1%/h, respectively. In the second study, animal types were yearling Angora doeling goats, yearling Boer wether goats, yearling Spanish wether goats, and Rambouilletwether sheep slightly more than 2 yr of age. Two animals of each type were randomly allocated to one of four pastures 9.3, 12.3, 4.6, and 1.2 ha in area. The experiment was conducted in the summer with three periods, 30, 26, and 26 days in length. EEa% was affected by an interaction between animal type and period (Angora: 16, 17, and 15; Boer: 60, 67, and 34; Spanish: 46, 62, and 42; sheep: 22, 12, and 22% in periods 1, 2, and 3, respectively (SE = 6.1)). EEa% of goats was predicted with moderate accuracy (R2 = 0.40-0.41) and without bias from estimates of 5.8 and 5.1%/h spent grazing/eating and grazing/eating plus walking, respectively, determined in the first experiment; however, these methods were not suitable for sheep. These methods of prediction are simpler and more accurate than currently recommended for goats by the National Research Council.

1.1 Resumen macroeconómico En el segundo trimestre la economía enfrentó varios choques, principalmente de oferta y de costos, la mayoría de los cuales no fueron anticipados, o los previstos fueron más persistentes de lo esperado, y que en conjunto interrumpieron la recuperación de la actividad económica observada a comienzos de año y llevaron la inflación total a niveles superiores a la meta. La inflación básica (sin alimentos ni regulados: SAR) aumentó, pero se mantuvo baja y acorde con lo esperado por el equipo técnico. A comienzos de abril se inició una tercera ola de pandemia, más acentuada y prolongada que la anterior, con un elevado costo en vidas humanas y algún impacto negativo en la recuperación económica. Entre mayo y mediados de junio los bloqueos de las carreteras y los problemas de orden público tuvieron un fuerte efecto negativo sobre la actividad económica y la inflación. Se estima que la magnitud de estos dos choques combinados habría generado una caída en niveles en el producto interno bruto (PIB) con respecto al primer trimestre del año. Adicionalmente, los bloqueos causaron un aumento significativo de los precios de los alimentos. A estos choques se sumaron los efectos acumulados de la disrupción global en algunas cadenas de valor y el incremento en los fletes internacionales que desde finales de 2020 vienen generando restricciones de oferta y aumentos de costos. Todos estos factores, que afectaron principalmente el índice de precios al consumidor (IPC) de bienes y de alimentos, explicaron la mayor parte del error de pronóstico del equipo técnico y el aumento de la inflación total a niveles superiores a la meta del 3 %. El incremento en la inflación básica y de los precios de los regulados fue acorde con lo esperado por el equipo técnico, y se explica principalmente por la eliminación de varios alivios de precios otorgados un año atrás. A todo esto se suma la mayor percepción de riesgo soberano y las presiones al alza que esto implica sobre el costo de financiamiento externo y la tasa de cambio. A pesar de los fuertes choques negativos, el crecimiento económico esperado para la primera mitad del año (9,1%), es significativamente mayor que lo proyectado en el informe de abril (7,1%), signo de una economía más dinámica que se recuperaría más rápido de lo previsto. Desde finales de 2020 las diferentes cifras de actividad económica han mostrado un crecimiento mayor que el esperado. Esto sugiere que los efectos negativos sobre el producto de las recurrentes olas de contagio estarían siendo cada vez menos fuertes y duraderos. No obstante, la tercera ola de contagio del Covid-19, y en mayor medida los bloqueos a las vías y los problemas de orden público, habrían generado una caída del PIB durante el segundo trimestre, frente al primero. Pese a lo anterior, los datos del índice de seguimiento a la economía (ISE) de abril y mayo han resultado mayores que lo esperado, y las nuevas cifras de actividad económica sectoriales sugieren que el impacto negativo de la pandemia sobre el producto se sigue moderando, en un entorno de menores restricciones a la movilidad y de mayor avance en el ritmo de vacunación. Los registros de transporte de carga (junio) y la demanda de energía no regulada (julio), entre otros, indican una recuperación importante después de los bloqueos en mayo. Con todo lo anterior, el incremento anual del PIB del segundo trimestre se habría situado alrededor del 17,3 % (antes 15,8 %), explicado en gran parte por una base baja de comparación. Para todo 2021 el equipo técnico incrementó su proyección de crecimiento desde un 6 % hasta el 7,5 %. Este pronóstico, que está rodeado de una incertidumbre inusualmente elevada, supone que no se presentarán problemas de orden público y que posibles nuevas olas de contagio del Covid-19 no tendrán efectos negativos adicionales sobre la actividad económica. Frente al pronóstico del informe pasado, la recuperación de la demanda externa, los niveles de precios de algunos bienes básicos que exporta el país y la dinámica de las remesas de trabajadores han sido mejores que las esperadas y seguirían impulsando la recuperación del ingreso nacional en lo que resta del año. A esto se sumaría la aún amplia liquidez internacional, la aceleración en el proceso de vacunación y las bajas tasas de interés, factores que continuarían favoreciendo la actividad económica. La mejor dinámica del primer semestre, que llevó a una revisión al alza en el crecimiento de todos los componentes del gasto, continuaría hacia adelante y, antes de lo esperado en abril, la economía recuperaría los niveles de producción de 2019 a finales de 2021. El pronóstico continúa incluyendo efectos de corto plazo sobre la demanda agregada de una reforma tributaria de magnitud similar a la proyectada por el Gobierno. Con todo eso, en el escenario central de este informe, el pronóstico de crecimiento para 2021 es del 7,5 % y para 2022 del 3,1 %. A pesar de esto, el nivel de la actividad económica seguiría siendo inferior a su potencial. La mejora en estas proyecciones, sin embargo, está rodeada de una alta incertidumbre. En junio la inflación anual (3,63 %) aumentó más de lo esperado debido al comportamiento del grupo de alimentos, mientras que la inflación básica (1,87 %) fue similar a la proyectada. En lo que resta del año el mayor nivel del IPC de alimentos persistiría y contribuiría a mantener la inflación por encima de la meta. A finales de 2022 la inflación total y básica retornarían a tasas cercanas al 3 %, en un entorno de desaceleración del IPC de alimentos y de menores excesos de capacidad productiva. En los meses recientes el aumento en los precios internacionales de los fletes y de los bienes agrícolas, y las mayores exportaciones de carne y el ciclo ganadero han ejercido presiones al alza sobre el precio de los alimentos, principalmente de los procesados. A estas fuerzas persistentes se sumaron los bloqueos de las vías nacionales y los problemas de orden público en varias ciudades registrados en mayo y parte de junio, los cuales se reflejaron en una fuerte restricción en la oferta y en un aumento anual no esperado del IPC de alimentos (8,52 %). El grupo de regulados (5,93 %) también se aceleró, debido a la baja base de comparación en los precios de la gasolina y a la disolución de parte de los alivios a las tarifas de servicios públicos otorgados en 2020. Como se proyectaba, la inflación SAR repuntó al 1,87 %, debido a la reactivación de los impuestos indirectos de algunos bienes y servicios eliminados un año atrás, y por las presiones al alza que ejercieron los alimentos sobre las comidas fuera del hogar (CFH), entre otros. En lo que resta del año se espera que el aumento en los alimentos perecederos se revierta, siempre y cuando no se registren nuevos bloqueos duraderos a las vías nacionales. El mayor nivel de precios de los alimentos procesados persistiría y contribuiría a mantener la inflación por encima de la meta a finales de año. La inflación SAR continuaría con una tendencia creciente, en la medida en que los excesos de capacidad productiva se sigan cerrando y registraría un aumento transitorio en marzo de 2022, debido principalmente al restablecimiento del impuesto al consumo en las CFH. Con todo esto, para finales de 2021 y 2022 se estima una inflación total del 4,1 % y 3,1 %, y una inflación básica del 2,6 % y 3,2 %, respectivamente. El comportamiento conjunto de los precios del IPC SAR, junto con continuas sorpresas al alza en la actividad económica, son interpretados por el equipo técnico como señales de amplios excesos de capacidad productiva de la economía. Estos persistirían en los siguientes dos años, al final de los cuales la brecha del producto se cerraría. El mayor crecimiento económico sugiere una brecha del producto menos negativa que la estimada hace un trimestre. Sin embargo, el comportamiento de la inflación básica, especialmente en servicios, indica que el PIB potencial se ha recuperado de forma sorpresiva y que los excesos de capacidad siguen siendo amplios, con una demanda agregada afectada de forma persistente. Esta interpretación encuentra soporte en el mercado laboral, en donde persiste un desempleo alto y la recuperación de los empleos perdidos se estancó. Adicionalmente, los aumentos en la inflación en buena medida están explicados por choques de oferta y de costos y por la disolución de algunos alivios de precios otorgados un año atrás. Los pronósticos de crecimiento y de inflación descritos son coherentes con una brecha del producto que se cierra más rápido y es menos negativa en todo el horizonte de pronóstico con respecto al informe de abril. No obstante, la incertidumbre sobre los excesos de capacidad es muy alta y es un riesgo sobre el pronóstico. Las perspectivas de las cuentas fiscales de Colombia se deterioraron, Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings (S&P) y Fitch Ratings (Fitch) redujeron su calificación crediticia, los bloqueos y problemas de orden público afectaron el producto y el país enfrentó una nueva ola de contagios de Covid-19 más acentuada y prolongada que las pasadas. Todo lo anterior se ha reflejado en un aumento de las primas de riesgo y en una depreciación del peso frente al dólar. Esto ha ocurrido en un entorno favorable de ingresos externos. Los precios internacionales del petróleo, del café y de otros bienes básicos que exporta el país aumentaron y han contribuido a la recuperación de los términos de intercambio y del ingreso nacional, y han mitigado las presiones al alza sobre las primas de riesgo y la tasa de cambio. En el presente informe se incrementó el precio esperado del petróleo para 2021 a USD 68 por barril (antes USD 61 bl) y para 2022 a USD 66 bl (antes USD 60 bl). Esta mayor senda presenta una convergencia hacia precios menores que los observados recientemente, como resultado de una mayor oferta mundial esperada de petróleo, la cual más que compensaría el incremento en la demanda de este bien básico. Por ende, se supone que el aumento reciente de los precios tiene un carácter transitorio. En el escenario macroeconómico actual se espera que las condiciones financieras internacionales sean algo menos favorables, a pesar de la mejora en los ingresos externos por cuenta de una mayor demanda y unos precios del petróleo y de otros productos de exportación más altos. Frente al informe de abril el crecimiento de la demanda externa fue mejor que el esperado, y las proyecciones para 2021 y 2022 aumentaron del 5,2 % al 6,0 % y del 3,4 % al 3,5 %, respectivamente. En lo corrido del año las cifras de actividad económica muestran una demanda externa más dinámica de la esperada. En los Estados Unidos y China la recuperación del producto ha sido más rápida que la registrada en los países de la región. En estos últimos la reactivación económica ha estado limitada por los rebrotes del Covid-19, las limitaciones en la oferta de vacunas y el poco espacio fiscal para enfrentar la pandemia, entre otros factores. La buena dinámica en el comercio externo de bienes se ha dado en un entorno de deterioro en las cadenas de valor y de un aumento importante en los precios de las materias primas y en el costo de los fletes. En los Estados Unidos la inflación sorprendió al alza y su valor observado y esperado se mantiene por encima de la meta, al tiempo que se incrementó la proyección de crecimiento económico. Con esto, el inicio de la normalización de la política monetaria en ese país se daría antes de lo proyectado. En este informe se estima que el primer incremento en la tasa de interés de la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos se dé a finales de 2022 (antes del primer trimestre de 2023). Para Colombia se supone una mayor prima de riesgo frente al informe de abril y se sigue esperando que presente una tendencia creciente, dada la acumulación de deuda pública y externa del país. Todo esto contribuiría a un incremento en el costo del financiamiento externo en el horizonte de pronóstico. La postura expansiva de la política monetaria sigue soportando unas condiciones financieras internas favorables. En el segundo trimestre la tasa de interés interbancaria y el índice bancario de referencia (IBR) se han mantenido acordes con la tasa de interés de política. Las tasas de interés promedio de captación y crédito continuaron históricamente bajas, a pesar de algunos incrementos observados a finales de junio. La cartera en moneda nacional detuvo su desaceleración anual y, entre marzo y junio, el crédito a los hogares se aceleró, principalmente para compra de vivienda. La recuperación de la cartera comercial y de los desembolsos a ese sector fue importante, y se alcanzó de nuevo el elevado saldo observado un año atrás, cuando las empresas requirieron niveles significativos de liquidez para enfrentar los efectos económicos de la pandemia. El riesgo de crédito aumentó, las provisiones se mantienes altas y algunos bancos han retirado de su balance una parte de su cartera vencida. No obstante, las utilidades del sistema financiero se han recuperado y sus niveles de liquidez y solvencia se mantienen por encima del mínimo regulatorio. A partir de este informe se implementará una nueva metodología para cuantificar y comunicar la incertidumbre que rodea los pronósticos del escenario macroeconómico central, en un entorno de política monetaria activa. Esta metodología se conoce como densidades predictivas (DP) y se explica en detalle en el Recuadro 1. Partiendo del balance de riesgos que contiene los principales factores que, de acuerdo con el juicio del equipo técnico, podrían afectar a la economía en el horizonte de pronóstico, la metodología DP produce distribuciones de probabilidad sobre el pronóstico de las principales variables (v. g.: crecimiento, inflación). Estas distribuciones reflejan el resultado de los posibles choques (a variables externas, precios y actividad económica) que podría recibir la economía y su transmisión, considerando la estructura económica y la respuesta de política monetaria en el futuro. En este sentido, permiten cuantificar la incertidumbre alrededor del pronóstico y su sesgo. El ejercicio DP muestra un sesgo a la baja en el crecimiento económico y en la brecha del producto, y al alza en la inflación. El balance de riesgos indica que las disyuntivas para la política monetaria serán potencialmente más complejas que lo contemplado en el pasado. Por el lado de las condiciones de financiamiento externo, se considera que el mayor riesgo es que se tornen un poco menos favorables, en un escenario en el cual la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos incremente con mayor prontitud su tasa de interés. Esto último, ante un crecimiento económico y del empleo mayor que el esperado en los Estados Unidos que genere presiones significativas sobre la inflación de ese país. A esto se suma la incertidumbre sobre el panorama fiscal en Colombia y sus efectos sobre la prima de riesgo y el costo del financiamiento externo. En el caso del crecimiento, la mayoría de los riesgos son a la baja, destacándose los efectos de la incertidumbre política y fiscal sobre las decisiones de consumo e inversión, la aparición de nuevas olas de contagio de la pandemia del Covid-19 y sus impactos sobre la actividad económica. En el caso de la inflación, se incorporó el riesgo de una mayor persistencia de los choques asociados con la disrupción de las cadenas de valor, mayores precios internacionales de las materias primas y de los alimentos, y una recuperación más lenta que la esperada de la cadena agrícola nacional afectada por los pasados bloqueos a las vías. Estos riesgos presionarían al alza principalmente los precios de los alimentos y de los bienes. Como principal riesgo a la baja se incluyó un alza de los arriendos menor que el esperado en el escenario central, explicada por una demanda débil y por una mayor oferta en 2022 dadas las altas ventas de vivienda observadas en el presente año. Con todo, el crecimiento económico presenta un sesgo a la baja y, con el 90 % de confianza, se encontraría entre un 6,1 % y 9,1 % para 2021 y entre el 0,5 % y 4,1 % para 2022. La brecha del producto tendría un sesgo a la baja, principalmente en 2022. El sesgo de la inflación es al alza, y se encontraría entre el 3,7 % y 4,9 % en 2021, y el 2,2 % y 4,7 % en 2022, con un 90 % de probabilidad. 1.2 Decisión de política monetaria En las reuniones de junio y julio la JDBR decidió mantener la tasa de política monetaria inalterada en 1,75 %.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

This study reviews the status of the legal recognition of the rights of Indigenous Peoples, local communities, and Afro-descendant Peoples to the carbon in their lands and territories across 31 countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Together, these countries hold almost 70 percent of the world’s tropical forests and represent at least 62 percent of the total feasible natural climate solution potential, and thus the bulk of nature-based emissions reductions and carbon offset opportunities in tropical and subtropical forest countries.

Este estudo analisa a situação do reconhecimento legal dos direitos dos Povos Indígenas, comunidades locais e Povos Afrodescendentes ao carbono em suas terras e territórios em 31 países da África, Ásia e América Latina.10 Juntos, esses países defendem quase 70 por cento das florestas tropicais do mundo11 e representam pelo menos 62 por cento do potencial total de solução climática natural viável identificado por McKinsey et al. (2021),12 e, portanto, a maior parte das reduções de emissões baseadas na natureza e oportunidades de compensação de carbono em países com florestas tropicais e subtropicais.

Cette étude examine l’état de la reconnaissance juridique des droits des peuples autochtones, des communautés locales et des peuples afro-descendants sur le carbone présent sur leurs terres et territoires dans 31 pays d’Afrique, d’Asie et d’Amérique latine. Ensemble, ces pays abritent près de 70 pour cent des forêts tropicales du monde et représentent au moins 62 pour cent du potentiel total de solutions climatiques naturelles réalisables et donc la majeure partie des réductions d’émissions basées sur la nature et des opportunités de compensation carbone dans les pays forestiers tropicaux et subtropicaux.

En este estudio se analiza la situación del reconocimiento jurídico de los derechos de los Pueblos Indígenas, las comunidades locales y los Pueblos Afrodescendientes de 31 países de África, Asia y América Latina al carbono almacenado en sus tierras y territorios. Conjuntamente, estos países albergan casi el 70% de los bosques tropicales del mundo, representan al menos el 62% del potencial total de las soluciones climáticas naturales viables y, por lo tanto, la mayor parte de las oportunidades basadas en la naturaleza para la reducción de emisiones y la compensación del carbono en los países con bosques tropicales o subtropicales.