Дисертації з теми "Volatility linkages"

The recent global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the subsequent recession have prompted renewed interest into how banking regulation and fluctuations in the financial sector impact the business cycle. Using three different model setups, this thesis promotes a further understanding and identification of the various transmission channels through which regulatory changes and volatility in the financial system link to the real economy. Chapter 1 examines the effects of bank capital requirements in a simple macroeconomic model with credit market frictions. A bank capital channel is introduced through a monitoring incentive effect of bank capital buffers on the repayment probability, which affects the loan rate behaviour via the risk premium. We also identify a collateral channel, which mitigates moral hazard behaviour by firms, and therefore raises their repayment probability. Basel I and Basel II regulatory regimes are then defined, with a distinction made between the Standardized and Foundation Internal Ratings Based (IRB) approaches of Basel II. We analyse the role of the bank capital and collateral channels in the transmission of supply shocks, and show that depending on the strength of these channels, the loan rate can either amplify or mitigate the effects of productivity shocks. Finally, the impact of the two channels also determines which of the regulatory regimes is most procyclical. Chapter 2 studies the interactions between bank capital regulation and the real business cycle in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework with financial frictions, along with endogenous risk of default at the firm and bank capital levels. We show that in a model which accounts for bank capital risk and regulatory requirements, the endogenous risk of default produces an accelerator effect and impacts the loan rate and the real economy through multiple channels. Furthermore, the simulations illustrate that a risk sensitive regulatory regime (Basel II) amplifies the response of macroeconomic and financial variables following supply, monetary and financial shocks, with the strength of the key transmission channels depending on the nature of the shock. The impact of higher regulatory requirements (as proposed under Basel III) is also examined and is shown to increase procyclicality in the financial system and real economy. Chapter 3 studies the interactions between loan loss provisions and business cycle fluctuations in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with credit market imperfections. With a backward-looking provisioning system, provisions are triggered by past due payments (or nonperforming loans), which, in turn, depend on current economic conditions and the loan loss reserves-loan ratio. With a forward-looking system, both past due payments and expected losses over the whole business cycle are accounted for, and provisions are smoothed over the cycle. Numerical experiments based on a parameterized version of the model show that holding more provisions can reduce the procyclicality of the financial system. However, a forward-looking provisioning regime can increase or lower procyclicality, depending on whether holding more loan loss reserves translates into a higher or lower fraction of nonperforming loans.

This thesis consists of three essays and empirically studies the behaviour of emerging and frontier stock markets against instability in the commodity and international financial markets. The first essay considers symmetric and asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH models to examine the correlations between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets and the Brent and OPEC crude oil price indices and to gauge the oil shocks effect on the dynamics of the GCC stock markets. The analysis uses weekly data covering the period December 31st, 2003 to December 27th, 2012. The results show that: (i) two of the GCC stock markets are asymmetrically correlated with both the Brent and OPEC crude oil price indices and only two are symmetrically correlated with Brent oil; (ii) all the GCC stock markets exhibit positive and symmetric conditional correlations overtime and these correlations are more pronounced during periods of high oil price fluctuations. The second essay investigates the contagion effect and volatility spillovers from the U.S. financial, the Dubai and the European debt crises to the GCC stock markets, with particular focus on financial and non-financial sectors. It uses weekly data for the period December 31st, 2003 to January 28th, 2015 and applies GARCH models and indicators of crisis. The empirical results show that: i) contagion effects are present on some of the GCC stock markets and are more pronounced during the U.S. financial and Dubai debt crises, with a larger impact on financial sectors; ii) there is significant evidence of volatility spillovers from the financial sectors of the U.S., European and Dubai stock markets to some of the GCC sectors considered, even though spillovers are rather weak in magnitude. The last essay investigates the extent to which the GCC stock markets are correlated and integrated with those of the Asian countries. The analysis is carried out using the Johansen cointegration approach, the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) GARCH model, and a standard correlation analysis based on a rolling window estimation scheme. The sample period of the analysis spans from December 31st, 2003 to September 30th, 2015. The empirical analysis offers three main results. First, there is a relatively moderate evidence of cointegration among some of the GCC and Asian stock markets particularly with of those of strong economic linkages among them. Second, evidence of time-varying correlation is found in some cases, while not large in magnitude, and shocks to volatility are highly persistence. Third, stock returns show a common trend exists, only during the global financial crisis.

The international linkages of stock markets have important implications for cost of capital and portfolio diversification. Recent trends in globalization, financial liberalization and financial innovation raises questions with regard to whether African stock markets are being integrated into world equity markets. This study examines the extent to which the South African (SA) equity market is integrated into the world equity markets using daily data for the period 1995-2007. The study is divided into three main parts, each looking at the different ways in which integration can be considered. The first investigates whether there is long run comovement between the SA and the major global equity markets. Both bivariate and multivariate Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration approaches were utilised. Vector Error Correction Models (VECMs) are then estimated for portfolios which show evidence of cointegration. The second part analyses returns linkages using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR), block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The third part examines the behaviour of volatility and volatility linkages among the stock markets. Firstly volatility is analysed using the GARCH, EGARCH and GJR GARCH. Simultaneously, the hypothesis that investors receive a premium for investing in more risky stock markets is explored using the GARCH-in mean. The long term trend of volatility is also examined. Volatility linkages are then analysed using the VAR, block exogeneity, impulse response and variance decomposition. The first part established that no bivariate cointegration exists between the SA and any of the stock markets being studied, implying that pairwise portfolio diversification is potentially worthwhile for SA portfolio managers. However, multivariate cointegration exists for some portfolios, with the US, UK, Germany and SA showing evidence of error correction for some of these portfolios. Findings on return linkages is that there are significant returns linkages among the markets, with the US and SA being the most exogenous and most endogenous respectively. Findings regarding volatility are that the volatility in all the markets is inherently asymmetric and that except for the US there is no risk premium in any of the markets. The long term trend of volatility in all the stock markets was found to be relatively stable. The final finding was that significant volatility linkages exist among the markets, with the US being the most exogenous and SA and China showing evidence of bidirectional linkages. Overall, except for volatility linkages, the integration of SA into the global equity markets is still quite low. Thus, both SA and international investors can capitalise on this portfolio diversification potential. On the other hand, policy makers should capitalise on this and make policies that will attract the much needed foreign investors.

Este trabalho examina relações de preço e volatilidades entre os contratos futuros de soja em grão negociados nos Estados Unidos, China, Brasil e Argentina ao longo do período delimitado entre 2002 e 2011. Os principais resultados mostram que os preços norteamericanos ainda possuem um papel dominante para explicar as variações de preço nos mercados internacionais. Outros resultados também indicam conexões mais fortes entre os preços na bolsa chinesa de Dalian e nos demais mercados, especialmente após 2006. Esta constatação sugere que o mercado chinês se tornou mais integrado ao mercado global de soja em grão em anos recentes, o que reflete a crescente participação da China no comércio internacional da commodity e o desenvolvimento de seu contrato futuro. Em termos de transmissão de volatilidade, o contrato futuro norte-americano teve papel de referência ao promover o contágio para os mercados futuros de Brasil e Argentina em praticamente todos os intervalos de tempo definidos na pesquisa; além disso, movimentos de volatility spillover do mercado dos Estados Unidos para a bolsa chinesa de Dalian ocorreram somente entre 2009 e 2011, ratificando a maior conexão do mercado asiático nos últimos anos. Ainda, Brasil e Argentina mostraram fortes relações com o mercado chinês, fruto do estreitamento comercial, e ao mesmo tempo foram nitidamente impactados pela estrutura de preços e por choques ocorridos na bolsa norte-americana. A despeito da caracterização do contrato futuro dos Estados Unidos como líder na precificação da soja em âmbito mundial, o presente trabalho expõe a grande parcela de importância da bolsa chinesa na definição do preço eficiente de longo prazo da soja em grão, e confirma Brasil e Argentina como seguidores no sistema internacional de ajuste de preços. Através da comparação entre modelos com diferenças acerca da utilização de preços de fechamento ou de abertura da China, o conjunto com cotações de fechamento apresentou maior número de relações de preço e processos de transmissão de volatilidade significativos. A grande contribuição deste estudo corresponde ao resultado sintético de que os principais players do mercado internacional de soja em grão são bastante conectados através de movimentos de preços, volatilidades e fluxos de informação, e que as conexões entre eles se tornaram mais fortes com o passar dos últimos anos. Em termos de aplicação prática, o estudo apontou que os agentes do mercado internacional de soja em grão que acompanharem os movimentos do contrato futuro da China diariamente tendem a realizar transações mais eficientes e lucrativas.
This thesis examines price and volatility linkages between soybean futures contracts traded in United States, China, Brazil and Argentina for the period ranging from 2002 to 2011. The main findings show that U.S. prices still appear to have a dominant role to explain price changes in international markets. Results also indicate stronger linkages between prices in China and in other three markets, especially after 2006. This result suggests the Chinese market has become more integrated with soybean international markets in recent years, which might reflect the growing participation of China in international trade and the development of its soybean futures contract. Regarding volatility spillover, U.S. futures contract had reference position by promoting price contagion to the futures markets in Brazil and Argentina in almost all time intervals defined; moreover, volatility spillovers from U.S. market to Dalian futures market have been observed only from 2009 to 2011, confirming a stronger linkage between U.S. and Chinese markets in the last years. Besides, Brazil and Argentina have shown strong linkages with Chinese market, due to the trade relationship, and at the same time these countries have been impacted sharply by price structure and shocks from U.S. market. Despite the role of U.S. futures contract as a global leader in the soybean pricing process, this study presents the great importance of Chinese market to define the soybean efficient price in the long run, and it confirms Brazil and Argentina as followers in the international system of price adjustment. By comparing models with differences on the use of closing prices or opening prices from Chinese futures market, the set of closing prices presented the largest number of significant price linkages and volatility spillovers. According to the main contribution of this study, the major players in the soybean international market are highly linked through price movements, volatilities and information flow. Results also indicate that linkages between the soybean futures markets have become stronger over the last years. Regarding the practical application, the study pointed that the players of the soybean international market have to observe the movements in the Chinese futures contract daily to perform more efficient and profitable transactions.

Dans une série d'essais empiriques, cette thèse analyse les effets de la diversification productive sur la volatilité et la productivité dans les pays riches en ressources naturelles. Dans le premier chapitre, je montre que bien que les ressources naturelles affectent négativement la croissance économique en augmentant la volatilité, les pays riches en ressources peuvent compenser les effets déclencheurs de la volatilité des ressources en diversifiant leurs économies. Les pays dont la structure de production est initialement plus diversifiée, ou qui parviennent à se diversifier au cours de leur développement économique, sont susceptibles de bénéficier de leur dotation en ressources. Dans le deuxième chapitre, j’explique que les pays riches en ressources disposés à diversifier leurs économies pour stimuler leur productivité sont confrontés à deux choix; soit développer des industries axées sur les ressources, soit diversifier leur économie dans son ensemble vers de nouvelles activités qui ne dépendent pas nécessairement des ressources naturelles. L’analyse empirique montre que la diversification par les liens vers l’aval du secteur de l'exploitation minière ne conduit pas à des améliorations de productivité. En revanche, l'élargissement et la diversification de la structure de production dans son ensemble offrent des potentiels de croissance de la productivité à des niveaux de revenus plus élevés. Dans le troisième chapitre, j’analyse la relation entre la diversification et la volatilité du point de vue du réseau de production constitué par l’ensemble des liens d’approvisionnement entre secteurs. Je trouve que l'emplacement d'un secteur au sein du réseau et son influence sur d'autres secteurs ont des effets contradictoires sur le risque que les fluctuations subies par ce secteur génèrent une volatilité agrégée. Les secteurs situés dans des régions denses du réseau ont un effet atténuant sur la volatilité globale via les effets de substitution, tandis que ceux qui sont plus influents et au centre d'un réseau fortement asymétrique génèrent des fluctuations globales via les effets de contagion et les liaisons intersectorielles. Ceux-ci suggèrent que la répartition et la structure des liens interindustriels jouent un rôle important dans la façon dont la diversification conditionne l'impact des chocs idiosyncrasiques sur la volatilité globale
In a series of empirical essays, this thesis looks at the various intertwining aspects of growth volatility and productive diversification in resource-rich countries. In the first chapter, I find that while natural resources adversely affect economic growth by increasing growth volatility, resource-rich countries can offset the volatility-triggering effects of natural resources by diversifying their economies. Countries that start off with more diversified production structure or are able to diversify as they develop are likely to benefit from their resource endowment. In the second chapter, I discuss the fact that resource-rich countries willing to diversify their economies are faced with dual policy options; to either develop resource-based industries, or diversify their economies as a whole into new activities not necessarily dependent on natural resources. The empirical analysis shows that diversification through downstream and forward linkages to mining does not lead to productivity enhancements. However, broadening and diversifying the production structure as a whole offer potentials for productivity growth at higher levels of income. In the third chapter, I look at the relation between diversification and volatility from a production network perspective, composed of input-output linkages across sectors. I find that the location of a sector within the production network and its influence on other sectors have conflicting effects on the risk that sectoral shocks lead to aggregate volatility. Sectors that are located in dense parts of the network have a mitigating effect on aggregate volatility via substitution effects, while those that are more influential and central in a strongly asymmetrical network generate aggregate fluctuations via contagion effects and inter-industry linkages. These suggest that the distribution and the network structure of inter-industry linkages play an important role into how diversification conditions the impact of idiosyncratic shocks on aggregate volatility

Statistics
Ph.D.
We propose new estimation methods for the factor loading matrix in modeling multivariate volatility processes. The key step of the methods is based on the weighted scatter estimators, which does not involve optimizing any objective function and was embedded with robust estimation properties. The method can therefore be easily applied to high-dimensional systems without running into computational problems. The estimation is proved to be consistent and the asymptotic distribution is derived. We compare the performance with other estimation methods and demonstrate its superiority when using both simulated data as well as real-world case studies.
Temple University--Theses

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Florida State University, 2005.
Advisor: Dr. Paul M. Beaumont, Florida State University, College of Social sciences, Dept. of Economics. Title and description from dissertation home page (viewed Sept. 15, 2005). Document formatted into pages; contains xiii, 164 pages. Includes bibliographical references.

碩士
淡江大學
財務金融學系
89
Using a multivariate GARCH-BEKK model, this study examines the volatility linkage of real interest rate between U.K.、France、Germany、Italy and U.S. We obtain the character of time-varying relationship between U.S. capital market and four major euro-capital markets by analyzing the texture of conditional covariances and conditional correlations. Our results indicate that all pairs of capital markets including U.S.-U.K., U.S.-France, U.S.-Germany and U.S.-Italy have significant permanent and transitory covariance. As a consequence, it appears that the real interest rates in international capital market are highly connected both in the long-run and the short-run. This finding implies that every country monetary policy has lost its effectiveness in terms of long period and short period, government must take the influence of economic factor abroad into consideration to achieve the goal of policy. This paper suggests that government should restructure a healthy financial regulation to create a safety transaction market so that the national competitiveness will progress through the successful market system.

碩士
國立成功大學
會計學系碩博士班
95
This paper examines volatility spillover among Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen. For this purpose, volatility implied by currency options on the four currencies and conditional variance of the return of the four spot exchange rates are analyzed. Vector autoregressive modeling and Granger-causality test are applied to ascertain the dynamics of the implied volatilities across currencies. We find that there are bidirectional volatility spillover between the Euro and the British pound, the Euro and the Swiss franc, the British pound and the Swiss franc, the Swiss franc and Japanese Yen. Moreover, we also examine the relationship between implied volatility and GARCH volatility of the four currencies. We find that there are bidirectional relationship between implied volatility and GARCH volatility of the British Pound, the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen.

We provide the first evidence on the catalysts for price discovery in the European Union Emissions Trading System. Short-run return dynamics are analysed using a regression approach similar to Fleming, Ostdiek and Whaley (1996), while the permanent contribution of securities to long-run price equilibrium is examined by calculating Hasbrouck‘s (1995) information shares. By employing high frequency data across a wide range of securities, we find that trading costs are a more important determinant of price discovery than the implicit provision of leverage in securities such as futures and options. Securities with low trading costs display greater price discovery than those with high trading costs. We also examine price discovery within the European markets for coal, natural gas and crude oil. Results show that Brent crude oil futures display greater price discovery than a proxy for the physical Brent market, while there is evidence that West Texas Intermediate futures still dominate price discovery globally. In natural gas markets, UK natural gas futures display greater price discovery than physical trading at North-West Europe‘s main natural gas hubs, though weak links to the crude oil market remain. Due to a lack of liquidity and transparency, it remains difficult to distinguish between coal securities. Overall, our results support the importance of futures contracts as a source of price discovery in contrast with opaque over-the-counter physical trading. Having established where price discovery is taking place in the European emission allowance and energy markets, we examine volatility and information linkages between them by employing a rational expectations framework similar to Fleming, Kirby and Ostdiek (1998). The model specifies volatility linkages operating through common information and information spillover channels. We estimate a representation of this model using GMM for bivariate pairings of emission allowances with coal, natural gas and crude oil. We find that emission allowances are most strongly linked to the crude oil market, in spite of more direct economic relationships with coal and natural gas.

碩士
國立彰化師範大學
企業管理學系
96
Numerous researches have been devoted into the study of relationship between oil price shocks, stock prices and their future indexes aftermath the recent oil price surge and generate fruitful results. However, previous works ignore that the price sensibility to the oil price change may vary with industries. The objective of this study is to fill this gap by examining the relationship between oil price change and industry-wide stock index and MSCI Taiwan index futures in the Taiwan equity market, respectively. The data period is from January 1, 2003 to Febuary 22, 2008. The standard time series techniques including unit root test, cointegration test, vector autoregression, Granger causality have been utilized to address the above issue. The empirical result are as follows: 1.Oil price and oil future price cointegrated with industry-wide stock index and MSF in the Taiwan equity market. 2.WTI, heating ,and Natural future oil granger causality on the stock index of transport ; and heating oil granger causality on the stock index of cement, textile, electric machinery, biochem , cable, transport, financial insurance, and trading. 3.Brent crude oil and natural gas futures have positive impact on steel, ruber, automobile, electric machinery, and biochem stock index. 4.The majority of the variance of crude oil and oil futures price are explained by one's own variance, and as the increase of time the explains ability all drops, however, the explains ability of industrary-wide stock of index, TSE, MSF rise as the time increase of the time. 5.WTI, brent , heating, natural, and light oil futures have volatility spillover effects on steel stock index.

碩士
國立中山大學
財務管理學系研究所
98
This paper uses multivariate DCC-GARCH model to investigate the volatility of dynamic correlation between MSCI Taiwan stock index and the USA, China, Japan , Asia and global stock market. The existence of stock market volatility asymmetry, volatility spread of infection and clustering effects also are analysed, while in case of the U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis and triggered the global financial tsunami. It discusses the Taiwan stock market fluctuations and structural changes in the international markets and the market dynamics related to change of influence and change. The main findings are (1)The volatility of continuity between the spread of infection and the clustering effect between the Taiwan stock market and international market fluctuations, (2) During the global financial tsunami, the correlation between changes in the international market and the market Correlation of different dynamic fluctuations and structural changes occurring in different time point also show the impact of changes of individual markets (3)The correlation between MSCI Taiwan stock index and the USA, China , Japan, indicates that the impact of change of stock the Japanese stock market on the MSCI Taiwan stock index is low, while China and the MSCI Taiwan stock index-related enhances, (4) market structure changes, the MSCI Taiwan stock index and the global dynamic fluctuations in the market is still a significant, The visible impact of the shock oscillation is wide and return to equilibrium of adjustment is still ongoing.