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Статті в журналах з теми "Trade shocks"

Автор: Grafiati

Опубліковано: 11 березня 2023

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1

Baek, Jeongho, and Hong-Youl Kim. "Analyzing the Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Trade Balance: New Evidence from Korea-China Trade." Korea International Trade Research Institute 18, no. 4 (August 31, 2022): 111–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.16980/jitc.18.4.202208.111.

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Purpose - The primary contribution of this paper is to investigate the impacts of oil supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks, and oil-specific demand shocks on three measures of South Korea’s trade balance oil, non-oil, and total trade balance with its top trading partner China. Design/Methodology/Approach - In order to investigate how trade balance is influenced by three types of oil price shocks, we used a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR). Also, Impulse Response Function (IRF) was used to calculate degree of the trade balance response to the oil price shock. Findings - We discover that aggregate demand shocks have the greatest impact on Korea’s trade balances, while oil supply shocks have negligible impacts. Additionally, the overall impact of the three oil shocks on Korea’s trade balances with China appears to rely on the response of the non-oil trade balance. Research Implications - This outcome explains why the roles of the different shock components of crude oil prices should be accounted for when modeling the nexus between oil price shocks and Korea’s balance of trade

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2

Lee, Sin Yee, Zulkefly Abdul Karim, Norlin Khalid, and Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi. "The Spillover Effects of Chinese Shocks on the Belt and Road Initiative Economies: New Evidence Using Panel Vector Autoregression." Mathematics 10, no. 14 (July 11, 2022): 2414. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math10142414.

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This paper investigates the spillover effects of Chinese real and monetary sector shocks on the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) economies. The study adopted a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) estimation technique to analyse the dynamic propagation of Chinese shocks in the real sector (gross domestic product (GDP) and trade openness (OPEN)) and monetary sector (nominal interest rate (NIR)) for a sample of 50 BRI countries from 2000 to 2017. The main results revealed that Chinese income shocks positively spill over to all macroeconomic variables except BRI countries’ consumer price index (CPI). However, the Chinese trade openness shock only has a temporary positive spillover to BRI international trade and a temporary negative spillover on its monetary policy. In addition, the Chinese monetary policy shock has a negative spillover on GDP and a positive spillover on CPI in BRI economies. Chinese shocks, however, do not constitute a significant source of variation in any interest variable. As explained by the Chinese income shock, the BRI interest rate is the highest percentage of variable variation accumulated over time. Further, the highest variation of Chinese trade shock is BRI trade openness, and lastly, the highest variation of Chinese interest rate shock is CPI in BRI economies. The beggar-thy-neighbour effect may dominate the positive trade effect and is a negative impact of the Chinese shocks. Hence, BRI economies should alleviate the adverse shocks since the upcoming rapid growth from the Chinese has disturbed the BRI economies. Our results reveal the importance of Chinese development on BRI partners’ economies and the significance of Chinese shocks in real and monetary sectors in assisting policymakers in designing international and monetary policy for BRI economies.

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3

Novy, Dennis, and Alan M. Taylor. "Trade and Uncertainty." Review of Economics and Statistics 102, no. 4 (October 2020): 749–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00885.

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We offer a new explanation as to why international trade is so volatile in response to economic shocks. Our approach combines the idea of uncertainty shocks with international trade. Firms order inputs from home and foreign suppliers. In response to an uncertainty shock firms disproportionately cut orders of foreign inputs due to higher fixed costs. In the aggregate, this leads to a bigger contraction in international trade flows than in domestic activity, a magnification effect. We confront the model with newly compiled US import and industrial production data. Our results help to explain the Great Trade Collapse of 2008–2009.

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4

O., Saibu M. "Sectoral Output Responses to Trade Openness, Oil Price and Policy Shocks in Nigeria: A CVAR Approach." Journal of Social and Development Sciences 1, no. 2 (March 15, 2011): 48–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.22610/jsds.v1i2.627.

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This study investigated the relative effectiveness of trade and policy shocks on sectoral output growth in a small open Nigerian economy. It is a country-specific, time series study verifies whether there is difference in the effect of sectoral output response to policy shocks in Nigeria. A CVAR model was specified to assess the effects of policy shocks on real aggregate and sectoral output measures. The model included oil price shock and an interactive term of trade openness as measures of supply and external shocks to the economy. The empirical results showed that there was remarkably difference in sectoral output responses to policy distortion. The effects of monetary policy shocks were positive and significant on manufacturing, service and industrial sector while fiscal policy shock was only significant and positive on agricultural output growth. The result further showed that international oil price shock and trade openness had pronounced negative effects on both sectoral and aggregate outputs. In addition, oil and trade opennessâ€™ negative effects overwhelmed the positive effects of fiscal and monetary policy shocks. The policy implication of the finding is that the effectiveness of domestic macroeconomic policy is constrained by the external shocks from both oil price and trade openness. Thus, confirming the open economic version of policy ineffectiveness proposition of the New classical macroeconomic in Nigeria

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5

Di Tella, Rafael, and Dani Rodrik. "Labour Market Shocks and the Demand for Trade Protection: Evidence from Online Surveys." Economic Journal 130, no. 628 (January 22, 2020): 1008–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaa006.

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Abstract We study preferences for government action in response to layoffs resulting from different types of labour-market shocks. We consider: technological change, a demand shift, bad management and three kinds of international outsourcing. Support for government intervention rises sharply in response to shocks and is heavily biased towards trade protection. Trade shocks generate more demand for protectionism and, among trade shocks, outsourcing to a developing country elicits greater demand for protectionism. The ‘bad management’ shock is the only scenario that induces a desired increase in compensatory transfers. Trump supporters are more protectionist than Clinton supporters, but preferences seem easy to manipulate: Clinton supporters primed with trade shocks are as protectionist as baseline Trump voters. Highlighting labour abuses in the exporting country increases the demand for trade protection by Clinton supporters but not Trump supporters.

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6

Raghavan, Mala, and Evelyn S. Devadason. "How Resilient Is ASEAN-5 to Trade Shocks? A Comparison of Regional and Global Shocks." Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 12, no. 1 (January 2020): 93–115. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0974910120906239.

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This article studies the resilience of the ASEAN region to external shocks amid the unfolding effects of the USA–China trade war. It investigates and compares the effects of regional (ASEAN) and global (USA, China) shocks on ASEAN-5 using a Structural VAR (SVAR) framework. To identify the propagation of economic shocks and spillovers on ASEAN-5, the changing trade links between the economies considered are used to account for time variations spanning the period 1978Q1–2018Q2. Three major results follow from the analyses on trade links and output multiplier effects. First, the response of ASEAN-5 to shocks from the USA and China were more pronounced than regional shocks for the period after the Asian financial crisis. Second, the increasing cumulative impact of China’s shock on ASEAN was congruous to the growing trade links and trade intensities between ASEAN and China. Third, the USA and China were dominant growth drivers for the weaker trade-linked ASEAN partners. Taken together, the results suggest that global shocks matter for the region, and the economic resilience of the region to global shocks depends on indirect effects apart from the direct trade links.

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7

Dix-Carneiro, Rafael, João Paulo Pessoa, Ricardo Reyes-Heroles, and Sharon Traiberman. "Globalization, Trade Imbalances and Labor Market Adjustment." International Finance Discussion Paper 2021, no. 1310 (February 10, 2021): 1–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/ifdp.2021.1310.

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We study the role of global trade imbalances in shaping the adjustment dynamics in response to trade shocks. We build and estimate a general equilibrium, multi-country, multi-sector model of trade with two key ingredients: (a) Consumption-saving decisions in each country commanded by representative households, leading to endogenous trade imbalances; (b) labor market frictions across and within sectors, leading to unemployment dynamics and sluggish transitions to shocks. We use the estimated model to study the behavior of labor markets in response to globalization shocks, including shocks to technology, trade costs, and inter-temporal preferences (savings gluts). We find that modeling trade imbalances changes both qualitatively and quantitatively the short- and long-run implications of globalization shocks for labor reallocation and unemployment dynamics. In a series of empirical applications, we study the labor market effects of shocks accrued to the global economy, their implications for the gains from trade, and we revisit the "China Shock" through the lens of our model. We show that the US enjoys a 2.2 percent gain in response to globalization shocks. These gains would have been 73 percent larger in the absence of the global savings glut, but they would have been 40 percent smaller in a balanced-trade world.

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8

Ferguson, Shon M., and Johan Gars. "Measuring the impact of agricultural production shocks on international trade flows." European Review of Agricultural Economics 47, no. 3 (April 26, 2019): 1094–132. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbz013.

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Abstract The purpose of this study is to measure the sensitivity of traded quantities and trade unit values to agricultural production shocks. We develop a general equilibrium model of trade in which production shocks in exporting countries affect both traded quantities and trade unit values. The model includes per-unit trade costs and develops a methodology to quantify their size exploiting the trade unit value data. Using bilateral trade flow data for a large sample of countries and agricultural commodities, we find that the intensive margin of trade is relatively inelastic to production shocks, with a 1 per cent increase in production leading to a 0.5 per cent increase in exports. We also find that per-unit trade costs are large, comprising 15–20 per cent of import unit values on average. Overall, our results suggest that there is room for improving trade as a mechanism for coping with food production volatility.

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9

Szomolányi, Karol, Martin Lukáčik, and Adriana Lukáčiková. "Impact of Terms-of-Trade on Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Croatia in the Short Run." Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy 63, no. 1 (March 1, 2017): 3–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/ngoe-2017-0001.

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AbstractThe terms-of-trade shocks are not main source of business cycles in three post-communist countries (i.e., Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Croatia). The zero or negative reactions of the trade balance in terms-of-trade positive shocks in the countries exhibit the Obstfeld-Svensson-Razin effect, according to which the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler positive effect on terms-of-trade indicates that the smaller the trade balance, the more persistent the terms-of-trade shock is. The conclusions come from the structural vector autoregressive analysis of the cyclical components of terms-of-trade, trade balance, output, consumption, and investment in three post-communist countries.

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10

Caselli, Francesco, Miklós Koren, Milan Lisicky, and Silvana Tenreyro. "Diversification Through Trade*." Quarterly Journal of Economics 135, no. 1 (September 19, 2019): 449–502. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz028.

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Abstract A widely held view is that openness to international trade leads to higher income volatility, as trade increases specialization and hence exposure to sector-specific shocks. Contrary to this common wisdom, we argue that when country-wide shocks are important, openness to international trade can lower income volatility by reducing exposure to domestic shocks and allowing countries to diversify the sources of demand and supply across countries. Using a quantitative model of trade, we assess the importance of the two mechanisms (sectoral specialization and cross-country diversification) and show that in recent decades international trade has reduced economic volatility for most countries.

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11

Autor, David H., David Dorn, Gordon H. Hanson, and Jae Song. "Trade Adjustment: Worker-Level Evidence *." Quarterly Journal of Economics 129, no. 4 (September 24, 2014): 1799–860. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/qje/qju026.

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Abstract We analyze the effect of exposure to international trade on earnings and employment of U.S. workers from 1992 through 2007 by exploiting industry shocks to import competition stemming from China’s spectacular rise as a manufacturing exporter paired with longitudinal data on individual earnings by employer spanning close to two decades. Individuals who in 1991 worked in manufacturing industries that experienced high subsequent import growth garner lower cumulative earnings, face elevated risk of obtaining public disability benefits, and spend less time working for their initial employers, less time in their initial two-digit manufacturing industries, and more time working elsewhere in manufacturing and outside of manufacturing. Earnings losses are larger for individuals with low initial wages, low initial tenure, and low attachment to the labor force. Low-wage workers churn primarily among manufacturing sectors, where they are repeatedly exposed to subsequent trade shocks. High-wage workers are better able to move across employers with minimal earnings losses and are more likely to move out of manufacturing conditional on separation. These findings reveal that import shocks impose substantial labor adjustment costs that are highly unevenly distributed across workers according to their skill levels and conditions of employment in the pre-shock period.

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12

JIANG, XIAOJIAO, ANDREW J. CASSEY, and THOMAS L. MARSH. "ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES FOR TREE FRUIT INTERMEDIARIES FROM SHOCKS." Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 49, no. 4 (August 22, 2017): 592–616. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/aae.2017.15.

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AbstractMotivated by disease outbreaks and trade shocks, a dynamic equilibrium displacement model is calibrated for the U.S. pear industry to simulate welfare from various shocks compared to a baseline. Our contribution is assessing the impact to intermediary packers for fresh fruit and processors for processed fruit in addition to growers and consumers. The processed market is more sensitive than the fresh market generally, and supply shocks induce larger impacts on both markets than trade sanctions. Impacts to intermediaries are on par with growers, indicating that not considering them misstates the distribution of damages to the industry from a shock.

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13

Hendrati, Ignatia Martha, Unggul Heriqbaldi, Miguel Angel Esquivias, Bekti Setyorani, and Ari Dwi Jayanti. "Propagation of Economic Shocks from the United States, China, the European Union, and Japan to Selected Asian Economies: Does the Global Value Chain Matters?" International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 13, no. 1 (January 22, 2023): 91–102. http://dx.doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.13789.

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A panel vector autoregression (VAR) model is employed to estimate whether growth shocks from the United States (US), China, Japan, and the European Union (EU) can be transferred to selected Asian countries. We examine 1) the effect of shocks through five channels: international trade, monetary policy, finance, global uncertainty, and oil prices; 2) whether a country’s deeper integration with the global value chain (GVC) enhances or decreases the effect of growth shocks from major economies more intensively than trade openness. We found evidence of the shock transfer from major economies to Asia through the five channels. The impact differs across countries depending on their participation in GVC; for example, the impact is high in Indonesia and low in South Korea. Moreover, Asian countries are more exposed to trade shocks through China’s trade channel than other major economies. Zooming in on the channels’ impacts, global uncertainty affects countries’ growth (e.g., Indonesia) more significantly than other channels (i.e., GVC); and Asian countries respond positively to oil prices in the short run but negatively in the long run.

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14

Faryna, Oleksandr, and Heli Simola. "How Trade Composition Affects Sensitivity to Foreign Shocks: Applying a Global VAR Model to Ukraine." Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, no. 247 (March 26, 2019): 4–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.26531/vnbu2019.247.01.

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This paper studies the transmission of foreign output shocks to real activity in Ukraine through international trade. We employ a global vector auto regressive (GVAR) model that captures about 80% of the world economy and incorporates time-varying trade and financial weights. According to our estimates, a mild recession in the US of a 1% drop in output generates a substantial recession in Ukraine of about 2.2%. A similar drop of output in the euro area and Russia translates to a drop in output of about 1.7% in Ukraine. Finally, the same drop of output in CEE, China, or the CIS leads to an output decline of about 0.4% in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s response to euro area output shock has been steadily increasing over the last couple of decades due to changes in global trade flows. Ukraine’s sensitivity to shocks in the US and euro area is notably strengthened by indirect trade effects, while the response to shocks from emerging economies, i.e., China, CEE, the CIS, and partially Russia, is mainly determined by bilateral trade linkages.

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15

Hogendorn, Jan, Paul Collier, and Jan Willem Gunning. "Trade Shocks in Developing Countries." African Economic History, no. 29 (2001): 212. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3601717.

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16

Bevan, David, Paul Collier, and Jan Willem Gunning. "Trade shocks in developing countries." European Economic Review 37, no. 2-3 (April 1993): 557–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0014-2921(93)90045-c.

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17

Kyin, Tey Sheik, and Lee Chin. "CURRENCY CRISES AND CONTAGION CHANNELS IN ASIAN ECONOMIES." Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan 25, no. 4 (January 20, 2023): 575–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v25i4.1777.

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This study examines multiple transmission mechanisms that propagate and amplify shocks across Asian nations owing to financial turbulence with emphasis on global shock transmission between economies that prioritise ‘trade’ and ‘financial’ connections in four countries: Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Based on the logit estimation outcomes, a higher degree of trade openness amplifies the implications of shocks on the economy. Relevant implications are drawn for optimal regional monitoring and the coordination of integration as the economic fundamentals associated with the currency crises complements the first-generation models of speculative attacks.

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18

Kireyev, Alexei, and Andrei Leonidov. "Twin trade shocks: Spillovers from US-China trade tensions." International Economics 167 (October 2021): 174–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2021.05.007.

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19

Jha, Shikha, Kensuke Kubo, and Bharat Ramaswami. "International Trade and Risk Sharing in the Global Rice Market: The Impact of Foreign and Domestic Supply Shocks." Asian Development Review 33, no. 1 (March 2016): 162–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00064.

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In the first decade of this millennium, rising food prices returned as a concern for policy makers, especially in developing economies. This paper examines how supply shocks, both domestic and foreign, impacted imports and consumption in the world rice market between 1960 and 2010. Such an investigation is important in assessing the role of trade in compensating for domestic shocks. If shortages lead economies to impose trade restrictions, then trade may not be allowed to play an important role in stabilizing consumption. The existing literature has highlighted the importance of these policy shocks in the world rice market and how they have worked to increase the volatility of prices and trade flows. Although trade cannot be expected to play a strong role when the major producing and consuming economies are simultaneously hit by negative yield shocks, such a scenario has occurred in only about 3% of all observed cases. We also find that consumption fails to stabilize even when domestic shocks are negative and foreign shocks are positive; however, imports do peak. Thus, while trade does help in coping with domestic risks, it is unable to achieve full risk sharing. Therefore, no matter the nature of foreign shocks, the principal concern is to stabilize consumption when an economy is hit by negative domestic yield shocks. The frequency of such shocks is about 12% in all observed cases, highlighting the importance of domestic responses. We find that domestic rice stocks have been important in stabilizing consumption. The reliance on domestic policies has, in turn, kept the rice market thin.

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20

Kehoe, Timothy J., and Kim J. Ruhl. "Are shocks to the terms of trade shocks to productivity?" Review of Economic Dynamics 11, no. 4 (October 2008): 804–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2008.04.001.

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21

Lukáčik, Martin, Karol Szomolányi, and Adriana Lukáčiková. "Terms-of-Trade Shocks and Slovak Economy." Acta Universitatis Bohemiae Meridionalis 19, no. 1 (June 1, 2016): 10–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/acta-2016-0006.

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Abstract Using the structural vector auto-regression analysis of the terms-of-trade, trade balance, output, consumption and investment cyclical components we show that the relationship between the terms-of-trade and trade balance is negative and that the terms-of-trade shocks explain only a small fraction of business cycles in the Slovak economy. We use quarterly data in constant prices in the period 1997-2014. The results are in line with the theoretical and empirical studies in the contemporary world economic literature. The negative relationship between the terms-of-trade and the trade balance confirms a theoretical Obstfeld-Svensson-Razin effect. The positive effect of a change in the terms-of-trade on the trade balance – so called Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect – is the smaller, the more persistent terms-of-trade shocks are. By capital adjustment costs, the theoretical effect may be even negative. A modest contribution of the terms-of-trade shocks to the business-cycle fluctuations in Slovakia is in line with other empirical papers around the world.

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22

Montoro, Carlos. "OIL SHOCKS AND OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY." Macroeconomic Dynamics 16, no. 2 (January 5, 2012): 240–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100510000106.

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This paper studies how monetary policy should react to oil shocks in a microfounded model with staggered price-setting and oil as an input in a CES production function. In particular, we extend Benigno and Woodford [Journal of the European Economic Association 3 (6) (2005), 1–52] to obtain a second-order approximation to the expected utility of the representative household when the steady state is distorted and the economy is hit by oil price shocks. The main result is that oil price shocks generate an endogenous trade-off between inflation and output stabilization when oil has low substitutability in production. We also find, in contrast to Benigno and Woodford, that this trade-off is reduced, but not eliminated, when we get rid of the effects of monopolistic distortions in the steady state. Moreover, the size of the endogenous “cost-push” shock generated by fluctuations in the oil price increases when it is more difficult to substitute other factors for oil.

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23

Kim, Ryan, and Jonathan Vogel. "Trade Shocks and Labor Market Adjustment." American Economic Review: Insights 3, no. 1 (March 1, 2021): 115–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20200101.

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We develop a framework to analyze the impact of trade shocks on a range of labor market adjustment margins in economies with a large number of sectors and labor groups. We provide analytic results characterizing equilibria. We show that labor groups earning a greater share of wage income in sectors with relative price declines experience a relative increase in unemployment and nonparticipation and decrease in wages and welfare. Our framework provides a guide for quantitative and empirical investigations into the labor market impacts of trade shocks. (JEL F16, J22, J31, J64)

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24

Navarro, Peter. "Electricity price shocks and international trade." Japan and the World Economy 2, no. 3 (September 1990): 249–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0922-1425(90)90004-c.

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25

Le, Thai-Ha, and Youngho Chang. "Oil price shocks and trade imbalances." Energy Economics 36 (March 2013): 78–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2012.12.002.

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26

García-Solanes, José, Jesús Rodríguez-López, and José Luis Torres. "Demand Shocks and Trade Balance Dynamics." Open Economies Review 22, no. 4 (March 3, 2010): 739–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11079-010-9171-3.

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27

Helm, Ines. "National Industry Trade Shocks, Local Labour Markets, and Agglomeration Spillovers." Review of Economic Studies 87, no. 3 (October 31, 2019): 1399–431. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdz056.

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Abstract Using a broad set of national industry trade shocks, I employ a novel approach to estimate agglomeration effects by exploiting within industry variation in indirect exposure to the other local industries’ (national) trade shocks across local labour markets. This variation stems from differences in local industry composition and allows to test for the existence of heterogeneous agglomeration effects across industries. I find considerable employment spillovers from other tradable industries’ trade shocks and even stronger effects within the same broad sector. Spillovers are larger for industries employing similar workers and are triggered predominantly by shocks to high-technology industries.

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28

Gnangnon, Sena Kimm. "Multilateral trade liberalization and developing countries’ economic exposure to shocks." Journal of Economic Studies 46, no. 2 (March 4, 2019): 496–515. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jes-05-2017-0141.

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of multilateral trade policy (MTP) liberalization on developing countries’ economic exposure to shocks. Design/methodology/approach The analysis is conducted on a panel data set comprising 120 countries over the period 1996–2013 and uses the within fixed effects estimator. Findings The empirical results suggest that over the entire sample as well as sub-samples of least developed countries (LDCs) and non-LDCs, multilateral trade liberalization have a negative and significant impact on economic exposure to shocks. Interestingly, LDCs appear to experience the highest magnitude of the reducing impact of multilateral trade liberalization on countries’ economic exposure to shocks. Research limitations/implications These findings suggest that a greater cooperation among countries in the world, including among WTO members to further liberalize trade would surely contribute to reducing developing countries’ economic exposure to shocks. Practical implications The current study shows that the current backlash against trade and the consequent strong appeal for domestic trade protectionist measures would likely to undermine the likelihood of further multilateral trade liberalization. One implication of this could be a rise in countries’ economic exposure to shocks. Originality/value To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is first the study on this matter.

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29

Sun, Yiping, Chengjun Wu, Xiaoming Zhu, and Pingguan Bian. "China’s Accession to the WTO as a Shock to Residents’ Health—A Difference-in-Difference Approach." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 22 (November 9, 2022): 14728. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192214728.

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The impact of regional trade shocks on population health has been a topic of interest in health economics in recent years. Unfortunately, there are few studies directly discussing the impact of regional trade shocks caused by China’s WTO accession on the health of Chinese residents, which is essential to explore the connection between a country´s opening to international trade and the health of its residents. Taking China’s accession to the WTO as a quasi-natural experiment, based on the micro individual samples of the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) from 1993 to 2011, this paper, for the first time, studies the impact of regional tariff uncertainty caused by China’s accession to the WTO on the health of Chinese residents and its mechanisms by adopting the Difference-in-Difference (DID) model. The study finds that compared with the areas initially facing low tariff uncertainty, the areas with high initial tariff uncertainty have a greater negative impact on the health of residents after China acceded to WTO, which means that the trade shock caused damage to the health of residents. After a series of tests on the effectiveness and robustness of DID, this conclusion is still valid. The impact of the trade shock on residents’ health varies with the type of residence, gender, and geographical location, and there is a nonlinear relationship. Further mechanism tests show that the trade shock has worsened the health status of residents through rural migration channels, working hours channels, and pollution emission channels. This study provides micro evidence for objectively evaluating the health effects of trade shock and has important implication for considering the health loss of Chinese residents in the process of trade liberalization.

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Abdullahi San, Mohammed, Prof Mustapha Mukhtar, and Prof A. Alexander. "Trade Shock, Inflation, Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from OPEC Countries Using Panel Vector Autoregression." International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Research 06, no. 04 (2022): 178–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.51505/ijebmr.2022.6414.

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The study is empirically motivated to analyze the link between trade openness, inflation, exchange rate and economic growth among the OPEC countries by using key macroeconomic variables across member countries. The study utilizes quarterly time series data for variables including economic growth, trade openness, exchange rate, consumer price index and oil price as exogenous variable in the system for over 164 quarterly data points. Utilizing the recently introduced model of Ambrigo and Inessa (2015), the study uses panel vector autoregression model and analyze how various shocks affect macroeconomic stability of the member countries. Trading shock as well as oil price shock are analyzed and responses of other macroeconomic indicators are evaluated. Based on the estimated result for impulse response and forecasted error variance decomposition result, the study established statistically significant link between trading shock and economic growth of the member countries while oil price shock is found to have significant but weak relationship with economic growth. Babed on the finding established, the study recommends that trading shocks is the main driver of cyclical fluctuation of the OPEC's member countries economic growth. Policies are therefore prescribed to smoothen the impact of trading shocks on the economic growth of the member countries.

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31

Oladunni, Sunday. "External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Oil-exporting Small Open Economies: The Case of Nigeria." Central Bank of Nigeria Journal of Applied Statistics, Vol. 10 No. 2 (February 21, 2020): 39–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.33429/cjas.10219.2/6.

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This study employs a sign-restricted Bayesian structural vector autoregressive (BSVAR) model to analyse how global demand, oil price and the US monetary policy shocks impact the Nigerian business cycle. The objective is to uncover the dominant external drivers of the business cycle in Nigeria. Results show that global demand and oil price shocks are the principal foreign drivers of the Nigerian business cycle. The global demand shock elicits the strongest responses from output growth and inflation; while oil price shock impacts the terms-of-trade and interest rate the most. The historical contributions of the global demand and oil price shocks to the evolution of output growth are significant and comparable, while that of oil price shock to inflation and interest rate is dominant. Further sensitivity analysis of pre-crisis period of 2008/09 suggests that macroeconomic risk arising from global demand shock is systematic, owing to the comparable impact on output growth and similar interest rate response in the two estimations. Evidence suggests that the GFC may have contributed to the more volatile inflation response to global demand shock in our full sample estimation. Given the strong and pervasive impact of the global demand shock on output growth, Nigeria can manage its vulnerability by shrinking the size of oil exports in its terms-of-trade, while growing non-oil exports progressively through sustained economic diversification and viable industrialization strategy.

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Susanti, Susi. "Analysis of Asean’s Shock in The Discourse on Establishing Asean Currency Unit (Acu)." Economics Development Analysis Journal 6, no. 4 (March 15, 2018): 395–402. http://dx.doi.org/10.15294/edaj.v6i4.22289.

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The discourse of the establishment of ASEAN single currency is the vision of ASEAN in 2020 with the aim to facilitate the stabilization of the regional exchange rate. The region that will form a single currency must have the same trade pattern criteria, symmetrical macroeconomic shocks and similar development economics characteristics. However, the economics indicators of ASEAN region are still inbalances. This study aims to analyze the shocks response of economic indicators in ASEAN-10. The variables in this research are Consumer Price Index (CPI), Real GDP and Trade Balance from ASEAN countries. This research model is Vector Error Correction Model. The are low correlation between Consumer Price Index (CPI), Real GDP and Trade Balance in ASEAN. The shock response from ASEAN countries to shocks that occurred in Singapore showed varying results and not symmetrical. This is shows that the requirement of formation of single currency has not been fulfilled. The result of the decomposition variant also shows that Singapore's economic turmoil is still dominantly influenced by internal conditions. However, the decomposition variant of GDP Rill shows that Laos has a higher role compared to Singapore due to the cooperative relationship between the two countries.

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McNELIS, PAUL D., and NAOYUKI YOSHINO. "HOUSEHOLD INCOME DYNAMICS IN A LOWER-INCOME SMALL OPEN ECONOMY: A COMPARISON OF BANKING AND CROWDFUNDING REGIMES." Singapore Economic Review 63, no. 01 (February 8, 2018): 147–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0217590817440015.

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This paper examines asset price and household income/consumption dynamics in a small open economy subject to terms of trade shocks, under two financial regimes. The first is a pure banking regime, in which firms borrow from banks for financing costs of labor, investment and intermediate goods for both the relatively riskless natural-resource traded sector and the non-traded sector. The second regime is more financially-inclusive banking/crowdfunding (BCF) regime, in which the households directly receive returns to capital from pooled lending to home-goods firms. Simulation results show that the banking regime better insulates the economy from negative shocks but limits the upside gain from positive shocks which would take place in the banking-crowdfunding regime.

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Sugaipov, Deni. "Estimating the impact of terms of trade news shocks on the Russian economy." Applied Econometrics 66, no. 2 (2022): 39–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2022-66-39-67.

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This paper examines the impact of terms of trade news shocks on the dynamics of output, consumption, investment, trade balance and exchange rate in Russia. News in recent work are understood as the emergence of information about future changes in the economy. To identify expected shocks, we maximize the forecast error variance share of terms of trade time series over a finite horizon of several quarters. The results indicate that news shocks have a significant effect on the Russian economy and explain almost 60% of the variance of the main indicators.

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Hu, Jiangfeng, Zhao Wang, Qinghua Huang, and Mengjia Hu. "Agricultural trade shocks and carbon leakage: Evidence from China's trade shocks to the Belt & Road economies." Environmental Impact Assessment Review 90 (September 2021): 106629. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2021.106629.

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Abdul Rahman Nizamani, Zulkefly Abdul Karim, Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi, and Norlin Khalid. "Trade Balance Response to Shocks in Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Pakistan using SVECM Approach." International Journal of Business and Society 18, no. 3 (December 31, 2017): 579–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.33736/ijbs.3148.2017.

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This paper examines the effects of monetary policy and exchange rate shocks on the trade balance of Pakistan. Theseeffects are further investigated on the two broad categories of trade surplus and trade deficit sectors.Thisstudy has employed the Structural Vector Error Correction Model (SVECM) withalongrun and short run restrictions to identify the monetary policy shocks. The results from the SVECM are consistent with the standard theoretical expectationsi.e. free from empirical puzzles.The findings have revealed that the tradebalance deteriorates to the contractionary monetary policy shocks, providing support to the expenditure switching effects of monetary policy in Pakistan. Furthermore, the effectiveness of monetarypolicyis only limited to trade surplus sectors.On the other hand, the exchange rateshocks do not support the J-Curve effects on both the aggregate as well as disaggregate level trade balance.

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37

Setiastuti, Sekar Utami. "TIME-VARYING MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY TO A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY: EVIDENCE FROM INDONESIA." Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan 20, no. 2 (October 31, 2017): 129–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v20i2.809.

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This paper studies macroeconomic impacts of global economic policy uncertainty shocks to a small open economy. To that end, I use monthly Indonesian data along with a measure of global economic policy uncertainty developed by Baker et al. (2016) and Davis (2016) and estimate a time-varying parameter Bayesian structural VAR with non-recursive identification using framework proposed by Canova and Pérez Forero (2015). I find that global economic policy uncertainty shocks lead to a reduction in prices, interest rate, and trade balance in all global events included in the estimation. The impact on output, however, largely varies across events. A surprise movement of global economic policy uncertainty triggers a contraction in output around the 2008 global financial crisis but, following the 2016 US presidential election, output reacts positively to the shock. Despite these notable variations in the responses of output, the proportion of the forecast error variance of output due to the shock is very small and decreases rapidly over time—which indicates that the shock presents an inconsequential effect to output. Nonetheless, the proportion of the forecast error variance of trade balance due to the shock is considerably higher than the forecast error variance of output and inflation. This further suggests that, via international trade, a global economic policy uncertainty shock could still pose harm for Indonesia.

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Eaton, Jonathan, Samuel Kortum, Brent Neiman, and John Romalis. "Trade and the Global Recession." American Economic Review 106, no. 11 (November 1, 2016): 3401–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20101557.

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We develop a dynamic multicountry general equilibrium model to investigate forces acting on the global economy during the Great Recession and ensuing recovery. Our multisector framework accounts completely for countries' trade, investment, production, and GDPs in terms of different sets of shocks. Applying the model to 21 countries, we investigate the 29 percent drop in world trade in manufactures during the period 2008–2009. A shift in final spending away from tradable sectors, largely caused by declines in durables investment efficiency, accounts for most of the collapse in trade relative to GDP. Shocks to trade frictions, productivity, and demand play minor roles. (JEL E3, F1, F4)

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39

Caldera Sánchez, Aida, Morten Rasmussen, and Oliver Röhn. "Economic Resilience: What Role for Policies?" Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy 07, no. 02 (May 4, 2016): 1650009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s1793993316500095.

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The global financial crisis highlighted the importance of strengthening the resilience of our economies to adverse shocks. In this paper, we take stock of studies carried out primarily within, but also outside the OECD, to better understand the role of macroeconomic and structural policies in spurring or mitigating the vulnerabilities that can lead to costly shocks, as well as the role of policies in mitigating the shock impact and speeding the recovery. Then we offer tentative insights on how policies can be geared to address vulnerabilities early on, mitigate the impact of shocks and speed recoveries, as well as highlight possible trade-offs that exist across policy areas.

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40

Karić, Darko. "IMPACT OF EXOGENOUS SHOCKS ON CONSUMPTION APPROXIMATED BY RETAIL TRADE IN CROATIA." International Journal Vallis Aurea 6, no. 2 (December 21, 2020): 15–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.2507/ijva.6.2.2.71.

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This paper analysis the impact of two different types of exogenous shocks on the consumption, approximated by retail trade in Croatia. The aim of this paper is to show that the crisis caused by financial disturbances and the crisis caused by pandemic have different repercussions on movements of interest rates and further impact on consumption. Banks react differently in a crisis that has no cause in the financial sector compared to the crisis caused by disturbances in the financial and banking market as we had in 2008. Therefore, it will be proven that in crisis of 2020, which is more significant in strength than the crisis in 2009, Croatia has pursued a different economic policy, aimed to retaining jobs and maintaining the level of consumption from pre-recession periods. All mentioned emphasizes two facts: 1. The irrational behavior of the state in a crisis caused by disturbances in the financial and banking sector differs to the state reaction to the crisis caused by a pandemic, that has no financial cause; 2. Fear of negative psychological expectations and falling demand and personal consumption, are the most important components in the GDP structure

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41

Suprayogi, Bambang, and Tarek M. Harchaoui. "China Shocks and Their Employment Effects in Emerging Economies." Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi 9, no. 1 (February 8, 2020): 31–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v9i1.13550.

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The impact of “China shocks” on trading partners is a source of a massive supply shock that displaces foreign manufacturing producers, and an important source of demand shock that propelled forward a wide range of foreign sectors. The “common” existing literature mainly focused on the supply shock and its impact, leaving a large span of “China shocks” unexplained. Thus, this article undertake the important task to account for the dual track of “China shocks” and their impacts on a set of emerging economies, for which the evidence remains scanty. Using a global input-output methodology which highlights the job creation from exports and the job destruction aspect of imports, we provide evidence on the employment effect of bilateral trade with China. Our results suggest that considering the net effect of supply and demand related to China shocks mainly lead to negative job demand, and press the ringing bell for the government.JEL Classification: F1, F16, F66How to Cite:Suprayogi, B., & Harchaoui, T. M. (2020). China Shocks and Their Employment Effects in Emerging Economies. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, Vol. 9(1), 31-50. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v9i1.13550.

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Abrego, Lisandro, and John Whalley. "Goods market responses to trade shocks and trade and wages decompositions." Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue Canadienne d`Economique 36, no. 3 (August 2003): 747–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1540-5982.t01-2-00011.

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43

Jayawickrama, J. M. Ananda. "Modelling Trade Sector and Trade Shocks in a Small Open Economy." South Asia Economic Journal 10, no. 1 (January 2009): 81–103. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/139156140901000104.

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44

D’Addona, Stefano, and Lilia Cavallari. "External Shocks, Trade Margins, and Macroeconomic Dynamics." Economies 8, no. 1 (January 14, 2020): 6. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/economies8010006.

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This paper studies the role of the exchange rate regime for trade of new products. It first provides VAR evidence that a rise in external productivity shifts trade away from new products and more so in fixed regimes. Then, it presents a model with firm dynamics in line with this evidence. We argue that exchange rate policy can affect firms’ entry decisions with consequences for the competitiveness of a country’s exports well beyond the short run. In our setup, fixed exchange rates can foster the competitiveness of firms that trade new products, while flexible rates favor firms that produce mature products.

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Johnson, Robert C. "Trade in Intermediate Inputs and Business Cycle Comovement." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 6, no. 4 (October 1, 2014): 39–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.6.4.39.

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Does input trade synchronize business cycles across countries? I incorporate input trade into a dynamic multisector model with many countries, calibrate the model to match bilateral input-output data, and estimate trade-comovement regressions in simulated data. With correlated productivity shocks, the model yields high trade-comovement correlations for goods, but near-zero correlations for services and thus low aggregate correlations. With uncorrelated shocks, input trade generates more comovement in gross output than real value added. Goods comovement is higher when (i) the aggregate trade elasticity is low, (ii) inputs are more substitutable than final goods, and (iii) inputs are substitutable for primary factors. (JEL E23, E32, F11, F14, F43, F44)

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Erceg, Christopher J., Luca Guerrieri, and Christopher J. Gust. "Expansionary Fiscal Shocks and the Trade Deficit." International Finance Discussion Paper 2005, no. 825 (January 2005): 1–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/ifdp.2005.825.

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47

Imam, Patrick A., Eleonara Granziera, and Norbert Funke. "Terms of Trade Shocks and Economic Recovery." IMF Working Papers 08, no. 36 (2008): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451868982.001.

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Kose, M. Ayhan, and Raymond Riezman. "Trade shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations in Africa." Journal of Development Economics 65, no. 1 (June 2001): 55–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0304-3878(01)00127-4.

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FEDOTENKOV, IGOR, BAS VAN GROEZEN, and LEX MEIJDAM. "International trade with pensions and demographic shocks." Journal of Pension Economics and Finance 18, no. 1 (August 24, 2017): 140–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1474747217000282.

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AbstractThe central question of this paper is how international trade and specialization are affected by different designs of pension schemes and asymmetric demographic changes. In a model with two goods, two countries and two production factors, we find that countries with a relatively large unfunded pension scheme will specialize in the production of labour intensive goods. If these countries are hit by a negative demographic shock, this specialization will intensify in the long run. Eventually, these countries may even completely specialize in the production of those goods. The effects spill over to other countries, which will move away from complete specialization in capital intensive goods as the relative size of their labour intensive goods sector will also increase.

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Jones, Ronald W. "Key international trade theorems and large shocks." International Review of Economics & Finance 17, no. 1 (January 2008): 103–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2006.04.001.

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