Дисертації: "System "scenario"

1

Tomizawa, Hajime. "AUTOMATED SCENARIO GENERATION SYSTEM IN A SIMULATION." Master's thesis, University of Central Florida, 2006. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETD/id/2637.

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Developing training scenarios that induce a trainee to utilize specific skills is one of the facets of simulation-based training that requires significant effort. Simulation-based training systems have become more complex in recent years. Because of this added complexity, the amount of effort required to generate and maintain training scenarios has increased. This thesis describes an investigation into automating the scenario generation process. The Automated Scenario Generation System (ASGS) generates expected action flow as contexts in chronological order from several events and tasks with estimated time for the entire training mission. When the training objectives and conditions are defined, the ASGS will automatically generate a scenario, with some randomization to ensure no two equivalent scenarios are identical. This makes it possible to train different groups of trainees sequentially who may have the same level or training objectives without using a single scenario repeatedly. The thesis describes the prototype ASGS and the evaluation results are described and discussed. SVSTM Desktop is used as the development infrastructure for ASGS as prototype training system.
M.S.Cp.E.
School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science
Engineering and Computer Science
Modeling and Simulation

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2

Cheng, Xu. "Supporting automated system-level test scenario generation." Thesis, University of Ottawa (Canada), 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/27821.

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Software plays a significant role in society. It penetrates every field such as telecommunications, public administration, cooperation management, etc. In a software development life cycle (abbr., SDLC), software testing is a key phase. It accounts for a large part of software development costs. This is a consequence of testing being performed late in an improvised and impromptu way under the discretion of project managers. Continual testing as proposed by the extreme programming approach advocates that automated testing be performed in the early phases of the SDLC. Automation helps avoid disorderly and unsystematic progress of testing tasks and assignments. This thesis presents an approach for the generation of test cases from use cases---a form of requirements used in the early phases of the SDLC. We first needed a way to combine related use cases in order to infer system-level test cases spawning over several use cases. We developed an approach to infer use case sequential relations based on a comparison of pre-conditions and post-conditions. This approach offers the benefit of obtaining use case sequential relations without solely relying on the traditional UML use case relationships (i.e., include, extend and generalization). It helps to avoid the functional decomposition of use cases. We then propose an automated approach for die generation of test scenarios, a step toward complete and concrete test cases. Test scenarios are generated using depth-first traversal of control flow-based state machines obtained from use cases. The construction of these control flow-based state machines considers traditional UML use case relationships as well as inferred sequential relations. Depth-first traversal of control flow-based state machines is controlled by a coverage criterion inspired from traditional white-box code coverage.

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3

Poon, Nelson. "3D scenario and interactive multimedia courseware authoring system." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2000. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape3/PQDD_0018/MQ48443.pdf.

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4

Poon, Nelson (Nelson Sheung Kwan) Carleton University Dissertation Computer Science. "3D scenario and interactive multimedia courseware authoring system." Ottawa, 2000.

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5

Bengtsson, Jonna. "Scenario-Based Evaluation of a Method for System Security Assessment." Thesis, Linköping University, Department of Electrical Engineering, 2005. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-6004.

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This thesis evaluates a method for system security assessment (MASS), developed at the Swedish Defence Research Agency in Linköping. The evaluation has been carried out with the use of scenarios, consisting of three example networks and several modifications of those. The results from the scenarios are then compared to the expectations of the author and a general discussion is taken about whether or not the results are realistic.

The evaluation is not meant to be exhaustive, so even if MASS had passed the evaluation with flying colors, it could not have been regarded as proof that the method works as intended. However, this was not the case; even though MASS responded well to the majority of the modifications, some issues indicating possible adjustments or improvements were found and commented on in this report.

The conclusion from the evaluation is therefore that there are issues to be solved and that the evaluated version of MASS is not ready to be used to evaluate real networks. The method has enough promise not to be discarded, though. With the aid of the issues found in this thesis, it should be developed further, along with the supporting tools, and be re-evaluated.

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6

Dougas, Arthur Harry. "Defining a decision support system to model a conflict scenario." Master's thesis, This resource online, 1991. http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-01202010-020224/.

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7

Praiwattana, P. "Investigation into game-based crisis scenario modelling and simulation system." Thesis, Liverpool John Moores University, 2018. http://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/9188/.

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A crisis is an infrequent and unpredictable event. Training and preparation process requires tools for representation of crisis context. Particularly, crisis events consist of different situations, which can occur at the same time combining into complex situation and becoming a challenge in coordinating several crisis management departments. In this regards, disaster prevention, preparedness and relief can be conceptualized into a design of hypothetical crisis game. Many complex tasks during development of emergency circumstance provide an opportunity for practitioners to train their skills, which are situation analysis, decision-making, and coordination procedures. While the training in physical workouts give crisis personal a hand-on experience in the given situation, it often requires a long time to prepare with a considerable budget. Alternatively, computational framework which allows simulation of crisis models tailoring into crisis scenario can become a cost-effective substitution to this study and training. Although, there are several existing computational toolsets to simulate crisis, there is no system providing a generic functionality to define crisis scenario, simulation model, agent development, and artificial intelligence problem planning in the single unified framework. In addition, a development of genetic framework can become too complex due to a multi-disciplinary knowledge required in each component. Besides, they have not fully incorporated a game technology toolset to fasten the system development process and provide a rich set of features and functionalities to these mentioned components. To develop such crisis simulation system, there are several technologies that must be studied to derive a requirement for software engineering approach in system’s specification designs. With a current modern game technology available in the market, it enables fast prototyping of the framework integrating with cutting-edge graphic render engine, asset management, networking, and scripting library. Therefore, a serious game application for education in crisis management can be fundamentally developed early. Still, many features must be developed exclusively for the novel simulation framework on top of the selected game engine. In this thesis, we classified for essential core components to design a software specification of a serious game framework that eased crisis scenario generation, terrain design, and agent simulation in UML formats. From these diagrams, the framework was prototyped to demonstrate our proposed concepts. From the beginning, the crisis models for different disasters had been analysed for their design and environment representation techniques, thus provided a choice of based simulation technique of a cellular automata in our framework. Importantly, a study for suitability in selection of a game engine product was conducted since the state of the art game engines often ease integration with upcoming technologies. Moreover, the literatures for a procedural generation of crisis scenario context were studied for it provided a structure to the crisis parameters. Next, real-time map visualization in dynamic of resource representation in the area was developed. Then the simulation systems for a large-scale emergency response was discussed for their choice of framework design with their examples of test-case study. An agent-based modelling tool was also not provided from the game engine technology so its design and decision-making procedure had been developed. In addition, a procedural content generation (PCG) was integrated for automated map generation process, and it allowed configuration of scenario control parameters over terrain design during run-time. Likewise, the artificial planning architecture (AI planning) to solve a sequence of suitable action toward a specific goal was considered to be useful to investigate an emergency plan. However, AI planning most often requires an offline computation with a specific planning language. So the comparison study to select a fast and reliable planner was conducted. Then an integration pipeline between the planner and agent was developed over web-service architecture to separate a large computation from the client while provided ease of AI planning configuration using an editor interface from the web application. Finally, the final framework called CGSA-SIM (Crisis Game for Scenario design and Agent modelling simulation) was evaluated for run-time performance and scalability analysis. It shown an acceptable performance framerate for a real-time application in the worst 15 frame-per-seconds (FPS) with maximum visual objects. The normal gameplay performed capped 60 FPS. At same time, the simulation scenario for a wildfire situation had been tested with an agent intervention which generated a simulation data for personal or case evaluation. As a result, we have developed the CGSA-SIM framework to address the implementation challenge of incorporating an emergency simulation system with a modern game technology. The framework aims to be a generic application providing main functionality of crisis simulation game for a visualization, crisis model development and simulation, real-time interaction, and agent-based modelling with AI planning pipeline.

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8

Florén, Jonas, and Kian Rousta. "Assessing an IT system implementation in a post merger scenario." Thesis, KTH, Skolan för industriell teknik och management (ITM), 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-279654.

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Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are today two common ways to expand and grow businesses. However, studies report that around 50-75% of all M&A transactions fail to yield expected results. This study focuses on the value creation realized in the post merger integration. During the post merger integration, organizational structures, IT systems and work routines need to change and integrate in order to achieve the desired synergies. Often when processes need to change or new ways of working are implemented, artifacts are utilized to facilitate the change. However, managers often fail to recognize the social perspective of organizational change. This study analyzes how a warehouse management system was used in a post merger integration to drive organizational change and establishing a common way of working between employees from different companies. The researchers have conducted a case study at a private equity firm that recently acquired and merged six companies in the fast moving consumer goods industry. As part of the case study, interviews and observations were made. This thesis presents two main results. First, that the choice to adopt a system-first-approach and neglecting human and task integration in the PMI resulted in several obstacles. The case company focused solely on system integration to realize the most obvious synergies of the different companies. This caused employee resistance and lack of trust and confidence towards managers and their intentions. It also yielded an ungiving and unhelping culture between employees that previously belonged to different companies. This indicates the importance of mixing employees from different companies after the merger. Moreover, the importance of creating cultural-unity under one brand is discussed. The results indicate that there should be a balance between human integration and task integration when merging several companies. Consequently, we present a two-by-two matrix that outlays the dependency of company characteristics on integration focus. Secondly, managers at the case company put too much faith and emphasis on artifacts and systems to change organizational behavior and neglected the perspective of sociomaterialism. This resulted in a failed implementation of the warehouse management system due to neglecting the employees’ perspective and ways of working. As a result, employees developed workarounds to the system and later abandoned the system. Consequently, managers should have adopted a technochange perspective when driving organizational change with IT systems. This means that the implementation of an IT system should be consider in conjunction with employees and their routines.
Fusioner och förvärv är två vanliga metoder som idag används av företag för att växa och ta nya marknadsandelar. Trots detta visar studier att 50-75% av alla förvärv misslyckas med att realisera förväntade synergier. Denna uppsats fokuserar på värdeskapandet som sker i integrationsfasen efter sammanslagningen. Under integrationsfasen integreras IT system, arbetsprocesser samt organisationsstrukturer för att realisera synergier. I samband med att företag ändrar på arbetsrutiner brukar artefakter användas för att stödja förändringsarbetet. Denna uppsats studerar hur företag kan använda sig av IT system under integrationsfasen för att driva förändring samt för att etablera ett gemensamt arbetssätt hos anställda med olika företagsbakgrunder. Denna uppsats är skriven tillsammans med ett riskkapitalbolag som tidigare köpt upp och slagit ihop sex företag inom industrin för snabbrörliga konsumentvaror. Som en del av fallstudien utfördes intervjuer och observationer på portföljbolaget. I denna uppsats presenteras två huvudresultat. Det första; bristen av fokus på integration av anställda från olika bolag ger upphov till motstånd och lågt förtroende till beslutsfattande. Det resulterade även i en fientlig och icke-hjälpande kultur mellan anställda med olika företagsbakgrunder. Resultaten påvisar vikten av att blanda anställda från olika företag i nya arbetssätt för att skapa tillhörighet och hjälpsamhet. Resultaten indikerar också att det är viktigt att ha ett gemensamt varumärke som alla anställda kan ställa sig bakom. Därför diskuteras balansen mellan integrering av anställda samt processer i en sammanslagning. I uppsatsen presenterar vi en två-gånger-två matris för att illustrera förhållandet mellan ett företags industriella karaktärsdrag samt integreringsfokus. Det andra huvudresultat visar att ledning samt styrelse hade för stort förtroende på artefakter för att förändra organisationellt beteende, det sociomaterilaistiska perspektivet följdes inte. Detta resulterade i en misslyckad implementering av ett IT system som ämnade att förändra beteendet hos anställda och realisera synergier. Anledningen hänvisas till försummelsen av de anställdas perspektiv samt arbetssätt. Detta resulterade i att de anställda utvecklade egna lösningar och i ett senare skede slutade använda systemet helt och hållet. Följaktligen borde företaget ha anammat ett “technochange” perspektiv för att driva förändring genom IT system inom företaget. Detta innebär att IT systemet måste ses som ett ekosystem tillsammans med anställda och arbetsprocesser, inte som ett självständigt system.

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9

Fu, Xin. "Developing an Integrated Scenario-based Urban Resilience Planning Support System." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2017. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1505209563652198.

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10

von, Mentzer Simon. "Risks and scenarios in the Swedish income-based pension system." Thesis, KTH, Matematisk statistik, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-176100.

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In this master thesis the risks and scenarios in the Swedish income-based pension system are investigated. To investigate the risks one has chosen to look at a vector autoregressive (VAR) model for three variables (AP-fund returns, average wage returns and inflation). Bootstrap is used to simulate the VAR model. When the simulated values are received they are put back in equations that describes real average wage return, real return from the AP-funds, average wage and income index. Lastly the pension balance is calculated with the simulated data. Scenarios are created by changing one variable at the time in the VAR model. Then it is investigated how different scenarios affect the indexation and pension balance. The result show a cross correlation structure between average wage return and inflation in the VAR model, but AP-fund returns can simply be modelled as an exogenous white noise random variable. In the scenario when average wage return is altered, one can see the largest changes in indexation and pension balance.
I det här examensarbetet (”Risker och scenarion i Sveriges inkomstgrundande allmänna pensionssystem) undersöks risker och scenarier i inkomstpensionssystemet. För att kunna undersöka riskerna har en vector autoregressive (VAR) modell valts för tre variabler (AP-fonds avkastning, medelinkomst avkastning och inflation). Bootstrap används för att simulera VAR modellen. När värden från simuleringarna erhållits kan dessa sättas in i ekvationer som beskriver real medelinkomst avkastning, real avkastning från AP-fonderna och inkomst index. Slutligen beräknas pensionsbehållning med simulerad data. Scenarierna utförs genom att en variabel i taget i VAR modellen störs. Sedan utreds hur denna störning påverkar resterande parametrar som beräknas. Detta görs för olika scenarion. I VAR modellen finns korrelationer mellan medelinkomst avkastning och inflation, men AP-fonds avkastning kan ses som vitt brus. De scenarier som har störst påverkan på indexeringen ¨ar då medelinkomst avkastningen ¨andras.

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11

Stanford, Joseph S. M. (Joseph Marsh) Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "Possible futures for fully automated vehicles : using scenario planning and system dynamics to grapple with uncertainty." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/105319.

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Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2015.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 146-148).
It is widely expected that fully automated vehicles (also commonly referred to as "driverless" or "self-driving" cars) will significantly change transportation systems in the United States and around the world. By reducing or eliminating many of the costs and disincentives of travel by automobile, these vehicles may have the potential to radically alter many of the inherent dynamics that have governed transportation systems since the advent of the automobile. To date, however, there has been very little structured analysis of these potential changes. Most of the existing literature addresses the technical challenges facing vehicle automation technology or considers immediate effects on the transportation system, usually analyzing single effects in isolation. Very little attention appears to have been paid to multiple simultaneous interactions that may occur across the transportation system and potential feedback effects that may arise among elements of the system. This thesis examines how the transportation system might react to the widespread introduction of fully automated vehicles (AVs), specifically considering how these reactions will affect total usage of automobiles, as measured by vehicle miles traveled (VMT). For the purpose of this thesis, the system boundary is broadly drawn-potential system responses are considered within the transportation system itself (consisting of existing users, vehicles, and infrastructure) and the "macro-system" (which includes broader economic, regulatory, social, and political dimensions). To address the wide range of uncertainties involved, scenario-planning techniques are used to develop and explore three scenarios that span a range of important variables. Within each scenario, system dynamics methodology is used to explore potential system reactions to the scenario assumptions and to consider the ultimate implications for VMT. The main insight from this analysis is that unstable responses (rapid movement to the extremes) appear more likely than steady transitions to "moderate" states. When the scenarios assume behavior can change substantially, the structure of the system suggests either that strong and growing forces will cause automobiles to become even more dominant over other modes than they are today (and VMT will rise dramatically), or public transit will become increasingly more appealing and assume a growing role (and VMT will drop substantially). The challenge of predicting the underlying behavioral changes is substantial: Who can say with any certainty how people will use a technology that provides point-to-point, self-directed, self-scheduled travel, with no requirement for attention or effort by a human occupant, potentially at higher speeds, in greater comfort, and with safer operation than today's automobiles? There are simply not enough existing data and no precedent for such analysis. Given the potential for unstable outcomes, depending on the desired outcome, it may be critical for policy-makers to consider the initial conditions of AV deployment, as these may have a substantial impact on the transportation system over the long term.
by Joseph Stanford.
S.M. in Engineering and Management

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12

Galarza, Osio Miguel Ángel. "Proposal of an adaptive infotainment system depending on driving scenario complexity." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/668823.

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The PhD research project is framed within the plan of industrial doctorates of the “Generalitat de Catalunya”. During the investigation, most of the work was carried out at the facilities of the vehicle manufacturer SEAT, specifically at the information and entertainment (infotainment) department. In the same way, there was a continuous cooperation with the telematics department of the UPC. The main objective of the project consisted in the design and validation of an adaptive infotainment system dependent on the driving complexity. The system was created with the purpose of increasing driver’ experience while guaranteeing a proper level of road safety. Given the increasing number of application and services available in current infotainment systems, it becomes necessary to devise a system capable of balancing these two counterparts. The most relevant parameters that can be used for balancing these metrics while driving are: type of services offered, interfaces available for interacting with the services, the complexity of driving and the profile of the driver. The present study can be divided into two main development phases, each phase had as outcome a real physical block that came to be part of the final system. The final system was integrated in a vehicle and validated in real driving conditions. The first phase consisted in the creation of a model capable of estimating the driving complexity based on a set of variables related to driving. The model was built by employing machine learning methods and the dataset necessary to create it was collected from several driving routes carried out by different participants. This phase allowed to create a model capable of estimating, with a satisfactory accuracy, the complexity of the road using easily extractable variables in any modern vehicle. This approach simplify the implementation of this algorithm in current vehicles. The second phase consisted in the classification of a set of principles that allow the design of the adaptive infotainment system based on the complexity of the road. These principles are defined based on previous researches undertaken in the field of usability and user experience of graphical interfaces. According to these of principles, a real adaptive infotainment system with the most commonly used functionalities; navigation, radio and media was designed and integrated in a real vehicle. The developed system was able to adapt the presentation of the content according to the estimation of the driving complexity given by the block developed in phase one. The adaptive system was validated in real driving scenarios by several participants and results showed a high level of acceptance and satisfaction towards this adaptive infotainment. As a starting point for future research, a proof of concept was carried out to integrate new interfaces into a vehicle. The interface used as reference was a Head Mounted screen that offered redundant information in relation to the instrument cluster. Tests with participants served to understand how users perceive the introduction of new technologies and how objective benefits could be blurred by initial biases.
El proyecto de investigación de doctorado se enmarca dentro del plan de doctorados industriales de la Generalitat de Catalunya. Durante la investigación, la mayor parte del trabajo se llevó a cabo en las instalaciones del fabricante de vehículos SEAT, específicamente en el departamento de información y entretenimiento (infotainment). Del mismo modo, hubo una cooperación continua con el departamento de telemática de la UPC. El objetivo principal del proyecto consistió en el diseño y la validación de un sistema de información y entretenimiento adaptativo que se ajustaba de acuerdo a la complejidad de la conducción. El sistema fue creado con el propósito de aumentar la experiencia del conductor y garantizar un nivel adecuado en la seguridad vial. El proyecto surge dado el número creciente de aplicaciones y servicios disponibles en los sistemas actuales de información y entretenimiento; es por ello que se hace necesario contar con un sistema capaz de equilibrar estas dos contrapartes. Los parámetros más relevantes que se pueden usar para equilibrar estas métricas durante la conducción son: el tipo de servicios ofrecidos, las interfaces disponibles para interactuar con los servicios, la complejidad de la conducción y el perfil del conductor. El presente estudio se puede dividir en dos fases principales de desarrollo, cada fase tuvo como resultado un componente que se convirtió en parte del sistema final. El sistema final fue integrado en un vehículo y validado en condiciones reales de conducción. La primera fase consistió en la creación de un modelo capaz de estimar la complejidad de la conducción en base a un conjunto de variables relacionadas con la conducción. El modelo se construyó empleando "Machine Learning Methods" y el conjunto de datos necesario para crearlo se recopiló a partir de varias rutas de conducción realizadas por diferentes participantes. Esta fase permitió crear un modelo capaz de estimar, con una precisión satisfactoria, la complejidad de la carretera utilizando variables fácilmente extraíbles en cualquier vehículo moderno. Este enfoque simplifica la implementación de este algoritmo en los vehículos actuales. La segunda fase consistió en la clasificación de un conjunto de principios que permiten el diseño del sistema de información y entretenimiento adaptativo basado en la complejidad de la carretera. Estos principios se definen en base a investigaciones anteriores realizadas en el campo de usabilidad y experiencia del usuario con interfaces gráficas. De acuerdo con estos principios, un sistema de entretenimiento y entretenimiento real integrando las funcionalidades más utilizadas; navegación, radio y audio fue diseñado e integrado en un vehículo real. El sistema desarrollado pudo adaptar la presentación del contenido según la estimación de la complejidad de conducción dada por el bloque desarrollado en la primera fase. El sistema adaptativo fue validado en escenarios de conducción reales por varios participantes y los resultados mostraron un alto nivel de aceptación y satisfacción hacia este entretenimiento informativo adaptativo. Como punto de partida para futuras investigaciones, se llevó a cabo una prueba de concepto para integrar nuevas interfaces en un vehículo. La interfaz utilizada como referencia era una pantalla a la altura de los ojos (Head Mounted Display) que ofrecía información redundante en relación con el grupo de instrumentos. Las pruebas con los participantes sirvieron para comprender cómo perciben los usuarios la introducción de nuevas tecnologías y cómo los sesgos iniciales podrían difuminar los beneficios.

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13

Hickey, Ann Marie. "Integrated scenario and process modeling support for collaborative requirements elicitation." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1999. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/284823.

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Information systems development research has documented the importance and the difficulty of eliciting requirements from users. Research on the use of Group Support Systems (GSS) for requirements elicitation led to development of the Collaborative Software Engineering Methodology (CSEM) and identified the need for collaborative methods and tools to provide a dynamic picture of the business processes that a system must support. Recent research suggests that scenarios can fill this need. A review of the scenario literature showed that although there is widespread agreement on the usefulness of scenarios, there are many questions on how to implement a user-focused, scenario-based systems development process. The purpose of this research was to advance understanding in this area and to determine: What are the collaborative modeling processes, tools, and facilitation techniques needed to effectively elicit scenarios from users in a group environment? A two-phase, multi-method systems development research approach was used. The first phase focused on use of a general-purpose GSS for collaborative scenario elicitation. A conceptual framework and initial methodology were developed and then evaluated during exploratory case studies and a laboratory experiment. The second phase focused on development and evaluation of a special-purpose GSS and methodology. Phase I results showed that: users can easily define scenarios which provide rich pictures of the problem domain; an iterative, collaborative methodology with scenario and action prompts is needed to ensure scenario completeness; and limitations of general-purpose GSS negatively impacted productivity. The Collaborative Distributed Scenario and Process Analyzer (SPA) provides integrated textual scenario and graphical process modeling capabilities which successfully overcame these limitations. This research made several contributions. CSEM was extended to define scenario usage opportunities throughout development. Scenario content, form, group process and facilitation techniques were defined for collaborative scenario elicitation using a general-purpose GSS, which can be used now by practitioners. A special-purpose GSS tool (SPA) was developed and integrated into a comprehensive methodology which allows user groups to rapidly define and analyze scenarios in face-to-face and distributed settings. Finally, flexibility designed into SPA opens up opportunities for many other uses for SPA and serves as a first-step towards a build-your-own GSS tool.

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14

Basirat, Farzad. "CO2 leakage in a Geological Carbon Sequestration system: Scenario development and analysis." Thesis, KTH, Vattendragsteknik, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-96084.

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The aim of this project was to study the leakage of CO2 in a Geological Carbon Sequestration (GCS) system. To define the GCS system, a tool that is known as an FEP database was used. FEPs are the features, processes and events that develop scenarios for the goal of the study. Combinations of these FEPs can produce thousands of scenarios. However, among all of these scenarios, some are more important than others for leakage. The FEPs that were used as scenario developers were the formation of the liquid flow, the salinity of the formation liquid, diffusion as a process for gas bubble transport and the depth of the reservoir layer. In this study, the leakage path is considered as the presence of a fracture in sealed caprock. The fractures can be modeled using various approaches. Here, I represented the influence of fracture modeling by applying the Equivalent Continuum Method (ECM) and the Dual-Porosity and Multi-continuum methods to leakage. This study suggests that considering groundwater in the aquifer would reduce the leakage of CO2 and that a shallower formation leads to higher leakage. This study can be expanded to future studies by including external FEPs that are related to the FEPs that were used in this study.

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15

Siketina, Natalya Hennadievna. "Scenario approach to develop machine-building enterprise’s strategy." Thesis, Аналітичний центр "Нова Економіка", 2017. http://repository.kpi.kharkov.ua/handle/KhPI-Press/32893.

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During the last years maintenance of competitive activity changed and the that subject of management, that creates competitive potential, finds out potential of any value, generates unique ideas and knowledge that can interest the future consumers of his products. For reduction or prevention of risk of acceptance of administrative decisions the enterprises must find out those that influence on its activity, find out the possible level of risk and methods of his calculation .

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16

Toharia, Manuel. "Phenomenology of the mixed Higgs-radion system in the compact Randall-Sundrum scenario /." For electronic version search Digital dissertations database. Restricted to UC campuses. Access is free to UC campus dissertations, 2004. http://uclibs.org/PID/11984.

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Valente, Christian. "Design and architecture of a stochastic programming modelling system." Thesis, Brunel University, 2011. http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/6249.

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Decision making under uncertainty is an important yet challenging task; a number of alternative paradigms which address this problem have been proposed. Stochastic Programming (SP) and Robust Optimization (RO) are two such modelling ap-proaches, which we consider; these are natural extensions of Mathematical Pro-gramming modelling. The process that goes from the conceptualization of an SP model to its solution and the use of the optimization results is complex in respect to its deterministic counterpart. Many factors contribute to this complexity: (i) the representation of the random behaviour of the model parameters, (ii) the interfac-ing of the decision model with the model of randomness, (iii) the difficulty in solving (very) large model instances, (iv) the requirements for result analysis and perfor-mance evaluation through simulation techniques. An overview of the software tools which support stochastic programming modelling is given, and a conceptual struc-ture and the architecture of such tools are presented. This conceptualization is pre-sented as various interacting modules, namely (i) scenario generators, (ii) model generators, (iii) solvers and (iv) performance evaluation. Reflecting this research, we have redesigned and extended an established modelling system to support modelling under uncertainty. The collective system which integrates these other-wise disparate set of model formulations within a common framework is innovative and makes the resulting system a powerful modelling tool. The introduction of sce-nario generation in the ex-ante decision model and the integration with simulation and evaluation for the purpose of ex-post analysis by the use of workflows is novel and makes a contribution to knowledge.

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Roach, Jesse. "Integrated Surface Water Groundwater Modeling in the Upper Rio Grande in Support of Scenario Analysis." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/194466.

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New and growing demands to finite and fully allocated water resources in the semi-arid southwestern United States mean that existing water resources must be managed with increasing efficiency to minimize shortages and associated social conflict. Computer based simulations can provide a powerful tool to aid in policy related decisions. This dissertation describes the development of a simulation model of the Rio Grande surface water and groundwater system for use in scenario evaluation. The primary model goal is to integrate cross disciplinary science at a basin scale, and make it easily accessible to a wide range of stakeholders. To achieve this at a river basin scale, three existing groundwater models and one surface water model were simplified and combined in a system dynamics framework using the commercial software package Powersim Studio 2005. To this physical model, a simple human behavioral model and user interface was added. The resulting scenario evaluation tool runs 40 year simulations on a laptop computer in tens of seconds, with inputs that are easily changed by non-expert users via a graphic, user friendly interface.

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Ambrus, Rares. "Unsupervised construction of 4D semantic maps in a long-term autonomy scenario." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Centrum för Autonoma System, CAS, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-215323.

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Robots are operating for longer times and collecting much more data than just a few years ago. In this setting we are interested in exploring ways of modeling the environment, segmenting out areas of interest and keeping track of the segmentations over time, with the purpose of building 4D models (i.e. space and time) of the relevant parts of the environment. Our approach relies on repeatedly observing the environment and creating local maps at specific locations. The first question we address is how to choose where to build these local maps. Traditionally, an operator defines a set of waypoints on a pre-built map of the environment which the robot visits autonomously. Instead, we propose a method to automatically extract semantically meaningful regions from a point cloud representation of the environment. The resulting segmentation is purely geometric, and in the context of mobile robots operating in human environments, the semantic label associated with each segment (i.e. kitchen, office) can be of interest for a variety of applications. We therefore also look at how to obtain per-pixel semantic labels given the geometric segmentation, by fusing probabilistic distributions over scene and object types in a Conditional Random Field. For most robotic systems, the elements of interest in the environment are the ones which exhibit some dynamic properties (such as people, chairs, cups, etc.), and the ability to detect and segment such elements provides a very useful initial segmentation of the scene. We propose a method to iteratively build a static map from observations of the same scene acquired at different points in time. Dynamic elements are obtained by computing the difference between the static map and new observations. We address the problem of clustering together dynamic elements which correspond to the same physical object, observed at different points in time and in significantly different circumstances. To address some of the inherent limitations in the sensors used, we autonomously plan, navigate around and obtain additional views of the segmented dynamic elements. We look at methods of fusing the additional data and we show that both a combined point cloud model and a fused mesh representation can be used to more robustly recognize the dynamic object in future observations. In the case of the mesh representation, we also show how a Convolutional Neural Network can be trained for recognition by using mesh renderings. Finally, we present a number of methods to analyse the data acquired by the mobile robot autonomously and over extended time periods. First, we look at how the dynamic segmentations can be used to derive a probabilistic prior which can be used in the mapping process to further improve and reinforce the segmentation accuracy. We also investigate how to leverage spatial-temporal constraints in order to cluster dynamic elements observed at different points in time and under different circumstances. We show that by making a few simple assumptions we can increase the clustering accuracy even when the object appearance varies significantly between observations. The result of the clustering is a spatial-temporal footprint of the dynamic object, defining an area where the object is likely to be observed spatially as well as a set of time stamps corresponding to when the object was previously observed. Using this data, predictive models can be created and used to infer future times when the object is more likely to be observed. In an object search scenario, this model can be used to decrease the search time when looking for specific objects.

QC 20171009

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Sundmark, Thomas. "Improvement and Scenario-Based Evaluation of the eXtended Method for Assessment of System Security." Thesis, Linköping University, Department of Electrical Engineering, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-16555.

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This master’s thesis consists of a scenario-based evaluation of an IT-security assessment method known as the eXtendedMethod for Assessment of System Security (XMASS), as well as an assessment of a real-world network using the softwareimplementation of this method known as the Security AssessmeNT Application (SANTA).This thesis also describes a number of improvements made to the software implementation, some which could also be addedto the method itself. These were performed during the preparation of the assessment but had no effect on the outcome.The evaluation showed that the method and implementation contained a number of flaws in the way the filtering effect ofthe traffic mediators of a network, such as network-based firewalls, was implemented. When it comes to the assessment ofthe real-world network it was seen that the network, given the supplied information regarding the software and hardwaresetup of its entities, appeared to be sufficiently secure to handle the transmission of data at the lowest classification level(Restricted). However, as with almost all security assessments, this does not mean that the network is guaranteed to besecure enough; it just indicates that, given the information specified, the network has the potential of being sufficientlysecure.The main conclusion of this thesis is that the way XMASS and SANTA calculates the effect of filtering traffic mediatorsshould be looked into and improved to increase the usability of the tool. The method can however still be used in its currentstate, but requires the individual(s) performing the assessment to be aware of the drawbacks of the current implementationand thus compensate for these when producing the input for the assessment method.

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Nyasulu, Maganizo Kruger. "Scenario Evaluation of Malawi Energy Policy: LEAP System Modelling Projections from 2008 to 2063." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för geovetenskaper, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-371239.

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National access to modern energy is deemed by Malawi government as the driving force to attain social-economic development. To achieve this, optimal decisions in energy planning and investment are considered important. This study evaluates potential pathways that will inform better policy design and investment option in energy sector. The Integrated Assessment Modelling method has been used to integrate social, economic and environmental variables that affect energy systems, and further analyses potential energy pathways in relation to these earth systems. The Long-range Alternatives Energy Planning system (LEAP) has been used to run a continuous time series from 2008 to 2063 of the three energy policy pathways (scenarios) using: (1) the current Malawi National Policy and Strategies on Energy (MwNEP) (2) the United Nation’s Sustainable Energy for All strategy (SE4ALL) and (3) Business as Usual (REF) scenario. The analysis indicates an exponential growth in energy demand for both MwNEP and SE4ALL scenario with a slight higher demand in SEAll over MwNEP Scenario. In both cases Biomass remains an important energy source beyond the 2030. Thus, the SDG 7 will not be achieved by 2030. Similarly, energy demand trends in MwNEP and SE4ALL scenarios continue to grow beyond available energy stocks and generation capacity which will lead to a shortfall in energy supply. Environmentally, the GHGs emissions in MwNEP are higher than the SE4ALL scenario. This is reflected in the pro-environment policy objective pursued by SE4ALL scenario. In the medium-term LEAP analysis favours advancement of alternative renewable energies at household level like solar photovoltaic (PV) for lighting and sustainable biomass energy for cooking. In the long-run, scaling up the adoption of renewable energy in form of solar, wind and hydro-electricity to meet the energy gap. At the same time, designing and adhering to implementation of sustainable energy plans that cuts energy sources from fossil fuels and allow easy accesses to affordable renewable energies will result in a success of Malawi’s energy system.

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Norbert, Raphaël. "Evaluation of Industrial Symbiosis Scenario Performances on Iron and Steel plants through System Dynamics." Thesis, Troyes, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018TROY0054.

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L’industrie sidérurgique est l’un des secteurs les plus énergivores contribuant à la consommation mondiale d’énergie et de ressources ainsi qu’aux émissions de dioxyde de carbone. Des efforts ont été réalisés pour augmenter l’efficacité des procédés en interne mais le potentiel d’amélioration est de plus en plus limité. Ce travail de recherche porte donc sur la symbiose industrielle comme solution pour faire face aux enjeux environnementaux sur un territoire industriel et pour laquelle les usines sidérurgiques ont un rôle majeur à jouer. Une nouvelle méthodologie et un nouvel outil évaluant dans le temps les impacts économiques et environnementaux de scénarios de symbiose industrielle sur ces sites ont été développés. Basés sur la dynamique des systèmes, ils visent à favoriser l’emploi des symbioses industrielles dans ce contexte industriel en proposant une approche systématique pour évaluer leurs performances.La méthode développée est décrite après l’étude de ses fondements théoriques. Elle est ensuite appliquée à une usine sidérurgique intégrée typique. Un modèle dynamique est ainsi construit et validé sur une période de simulation de deux ans afin de simuler tout scénario de symbiose industrielle impliquant des flux d'énergie et de matières relatifs aux activités sidérurgiques. Un cas concret d'application de symbiose industrielle dans des conditions opérationnelles réelles est enfin proposé et simulé. Il montre la valeur ajoutée de ce travail de recherche qui vient en support des processus de prise de décisions en matière de symbiose industrielle dans le contexte de l’industrie sidérurgique
Iron and steel industry is known as one of the most energy-intensive sectors which contribute to worldwide energy and resource consumptions as well as carbon dioxide emissions. Many efforts have been made to increase the efficiency of internal processes but the potential of improvement tends to be more and more limited. This research work is thus focused on industrial symbiosis as a mean to face these environmental stakes on a common industrial territory and for which iron and steel plants have a major role to play. A new methodology and a new tool aiming at evaluating over time economic and environmental impacts of industrial symbiosis scenarios on this kind of industrial sites have been therefore developed. Based on the system dynamics concepts, they further yearn to enhance the deployment of industrial symbioses in the context of iron and steel industry by providing a systematic approach for assessing their performances.The developed method is described after investigating its theoretical foundations. It is then applied to a typically integrated iron and steel plant. A dynamic model is thus built and validated over a two year simulation period enabling to run industrial symbiosis scenarios involving energy and material flows implied throughout iron and steel production activities. An application case of a concrete industrial symbiosis in real operational conditions is finally proposed and simulated. It allows showing the significant added value of this research work in the support of decisions-making processes towards industrial symbiosis in the framework of iron and steel industry

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Burgess, Amy G. "Promoting Domestic Water Conservation through the Utilization of a Scenario-Based Planning Support System." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2010. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1277000131.

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Pradhan, Ligaj. "User Interface Test Automation and its Challenges in an Industrial Scenario." Thesis, Mälardalens högskola, Akademin för innovation, design och teknik, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-14126.

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The growing demand for UI test automation has triggered the development of many tools. Researchers and developers have been continuously working to further improvise the existing approaches. If we look at GUI test evolution we can observe a clear progress from manual testing towards complete automation. Numerous approaches have been made to automate the GUI testing process. Record and playback tools, key-word driven methodologies, event flow exploration strategies, model based approaches are continuously evolving with higher level of automation. Similarly, new ideas and strategies to make these tests efficient are also emerging. Optimization of this resource consuming activity is another very important aspect in this area. Dependencies between different tests can create deadlock scenarios, while running larger test suites. A concept of Ordered Test Suite can be used to cope with such dependencies. Following the Model Driven Architecture initiative by Object Management Group, a new global trend of Model Driven Engineering is creating a big sensation in the field of model based software development. Using the same principle, studies have also been made to automatically generate tests from models. Behavioral models can be made using the model driven approaches and these models can be analyzed to generate tests automatically. This master thesis addresses different approaches made for Graphical User Interface test automation, some optimization issues and solutions, a case study done at a software company to automate User Interface testing and a model driven approach for automatic test case generation.

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Aseere, Ali. "A voting-based agent system to support personalised e-learning in a course selection scenario." Thesis, University of Southampton, 2012. https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/344399/.

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Agent technologies are a promising approach to solving a number of prob-lems concerned with personalised learning due to the inherent autonomy and independence they provide for learners. The objective of this thesis is to find out whether a multiagent system could potentially replace a centralised infra-structure, and to explore the impact of agents taking different strategies. More specifically, our aim is to show how intelligent agent systems can not only form a good framework for distributed e-learning systems, but also how they can be applied in contexts where learners are autonomous and independent. The study also aims to investigate fairness issues and propose a simple framework of fair-ness definitions derived from the relevant literature. To this end, a university course selection scenario has been chosen, where the university has many courses available, but has only sufficient resources to run the most preferred ones. Instead of a centralised system, we consider a de-centralised approach where individuals can make a collective decision about which courses should run by using a multi-agent system based on voting. This voting process consists of multiple rounds, allowing a student agent to accurate-ly represent the student’s preferences, and learn from previous rounds. The ef-fectiveness of this research is demonstrated in three experiments. The first ex-periment explores whether voting procedures and multiagent technology could potentially replace a centralised infrastructure. It also explores the impact of agents using different strategies on overall student satisfaction. The second ex-periment demonstrates the potential for using multiagent systems and voting in settings where students have more complex preferences. The last experiment investigates how intelligent agent-based e-learning systems can ensure fairness between individuals using different strategies. This work shows that agent technology could provide levels of decentrali-sation and personalisation that could be extended to various types of personal and informal learning. It also highlights the importance of the issue of fairness in intelligent and personalised e-learning systems. In this context, it may be said that there is only one potential view of fairness that is practical for these systems, which is the social welfare view that looks to the overall outcome.

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Wirzberger, Maria, René Schmidt, Maria Georgi, Wolfram Hardt, Guido Brunnett, and Günter Daniel Rey. "Effects of system response delays on elderly humans’ cognitive performance in a virtual training scenario." Springer Nature, 2019. https://monarch.qucosa.de/id/qucosa%3A34294.

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Observed influences of system response delay in spoken human-machine dialogues are rather ambiguous and mainly focus on perceived system quality. Studies that systematically inspect effects on cognitive performance are still lacking, and effects of individual characteristics are also often neglected. Building on benefits of cognitive training for decelerating cognitive decline, this Wizard-of-Oz study addresses both issues by testing 62 elderly participants in a dialogue-based memory training with a virtual agent. Participants acquired the method of loci with fading instructional guidance and applied it afterward to memorizing and recalling lists of German nouns. System response delays were randomly assigned, and training performance was included as potential mediator. Participants’ age, gender, and subscales of affinity for technology (enthusiasm, competence, positive and negative perception of technology) were inspected as potential moderators. The results indicated positive effects on recall performance with higher training performance, female gender, and less negative perception of technology. Additionally, memory retention and facets of affinity for technology moderated increasing system response delays. Participants also provided higher ratings in perceived system quality with higher enthusiasm for technology but reported increasing frustration with a more positive perception of technology. Potential explanations and implications for the design of spoken dialogue systems are discussed.

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YEDAVALLI, SARATHY ASWANTH. "Decision Support System for Bus Rapid Transit." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2008. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1205010811.

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Wang, Wenqing, and wenqing wang@rmit edu au. "Modelling and Simulating Mobile Commerce Diffusion in China Using System Dynamics." RMIT University. Business Information Technology, 2007. http://adt.lib.rmit.edu.au/adt/public/adt-VIT20080604.115004.

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Current deployments of mobile commerce focus mostly on digital content. However, mobile commerce will grow rapidly with the increased use of portable devices such as cellular phones and personal digital assistants (PDA), increased network bandwidth, and the availability of a wider range of mobile commerce services and transactions. As the revenue generated from mobile commerce is expected to skyrocket in the coming years, strategists are turning their attention to untapped emerging markets in the developing countries. Understanding how mobile commerce will develop in countries like China, where huge market potential exists, is of paramount importance in order to develop effective strategies that will positively affect its course. Modelling the diffusion of mobile commerce in a country is a difficult task due to the non-linear, complex and uncertain nature of its operating environment. A System Dynamics approach is more appropriate to model such a complex system. The main objective of this study is to illustrate the process of developing System Dynamics models for simulating mobile commerce diffusion in China by using a subset of the factors involved. In order to achieve this objective, the Chinese mobile commerce was modelled as the interaction of three subsystems, namely: population evolution in China; mobile commerce diffusion; and the influence from the provision of mobile commerce terminals (MCT) on mobile commerce diffusion. Each subsystem was modelled by identifying the factors influencing its development as well as the interactions between the factors. The subsystems were calibrated using historical and forecasted data whenever they were available. The validation of the subsystems was also performed through extensive sensitivity analysis. The complete model was used for experimenting with some typical Chinese mobile commerce scenarios for the purpose of analysing mobile commerce trends and designing strategies to exert positive influences on those trends. The simulation of the submodels provided useful insights into their respective areas for controlling their development. Simulation of the population development submodel showed that, in addition to family planning policies, urbanisation rates and life quality were important factors that significantly influenced population dynamics in China. Simulation of the mobile commerce diffusion submodel showed that the time when mobile commerce is implemented will significantly influence its market expansion speed i.e. the later mobile commerce is implemented, the quicker the market will expand. The existence of floating populations in China will be a big advantage in starting up the rural market. However, if mobile commerce is implemented too late, the penetration in rural areas will be negligible. Simulation of the MCT provision submodel showed the importance of opening the Chinese market to foreign suppliers and the coordination of strategies regarding the design and supply of MCTs with strategies for the growth of mobile commerce in China. This study is a first attempt to simulate the diffusion of mobile commerce in China using System Dynamics. The results obtained showed that the models developed were useful for understanding and controlling the future diffusion of mobile commerce in China.

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Kortenius, Jacob, and Niklas Wallhed. "Studie i att sammanställaenergiplaner för att synliggörakraftbehov 2030 : En explorativ och formativ undersökning." Thesis, KTH, Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-255882.

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Energiöverenskommelsen 2016 innefattade ett flertal mål och implikationer för utformningenav det svenska el- och energisystemet. Sveriges energisystem ska vara ekologiskt hållbart,konkurrenskraftigt och försörjningstryggt. Utöver detta så omfattas överenskommelsen av enmålsättning om 100% förnyelsebar elproduktion år 2040, som analyserats i rapporten. Syftetmed rapporten är att belysa problematiken som kan uppkomma vid ett obalanserat elsystemmed avseende på försörjningstrygghet, ekologisk hållbarhet och konkurrenskraft. Här ämnarrapporten även att öka medvetenheten bland aktörer inom det svenska energisystemet ochsynliggöra problematik som kan uppkomma efter år 2040. Den huvudsakliga vetenskapligametoden är en formativ undersökning där intervjuer med kraftbolag genomförts för att få endjupare förståelse för det framtida kraftsystemet. Sedan har även en explorativ undersökninggenomförts genom litteraturstudier. Dessa två undersökningar har tillsammans möjliggjortförklaringar av orsakssamband. Det främsta källmaterialet i rapporten är vetenskapliga artiklarkopplade till el- och energiområdet, där KTH:s Databas Primo samt Google scholar använtssom främsta medium för sökningar. Myndigheter och organisationer som KungligaIngenjörsvetenskapsakademien (IVA) samt North European Energy Perspectives Project(NEPP) har bidragit med information. Resultaten visar att det finns problematik kopplade tilleffektbrist, svängmassa och planerbarhet i och med en nedläggning av kärnkraften, där ensamtida beskattning av avfallsbaserad kraftvärme ytterligare försämrar tillgången på effekt.Resultaten visar även att introducering av vindkraft till systemet ökar det svenskaimportberoendet av el från Tyskland med högre andel fossila inslag, men samtidigt bidrar tillen ökad export där svensk el kan trycka bort smutsig el i andra länder. Vidare beskrivslångsiktighet och ett ökat samarbete mellan systemets aktörer som av stor vikt för utvecklingenav det framtida elsystemet samt ett ökat fokus på implementering av systemtjänster somförsvinner från systemet framöver. Andelen vindkraft beräknas öka till år 2030 samtidigt somkärnkraft och värmekraft, som båda är planerbara kraftslag, beräknas minska. Att målet omförnyelsebar elproduktion införlivas 2040 är inte troligt, då kärnkraftsreaktorerna beräknasdrivas hela deras ekonomiska livslängd vilket löper ut 2045.
The Energy Agreement from 2016 is comprised of several goals for the forming of the Swedishpower system. The Swedish power system should be ecologically sustainable, competitive andbe able to supply power without interruption. Furthermore, this agreement also involves a goalof a 100% renewable power generation in 2040, which has been analyzed in this report. Theaim with his report is to highlight problems that might occur in the case of an unbalanced powersystem with respect to ecological sustainability, competitiveness and safe supply. The reportalso aims to raise awareness amongst the actors in the Swedish energy system and highlightproblems in the future. The main scientific method used in this report is a formativeexamination where interviews with the power company representatives gave a deeperunderstanding of the power system as of now, but also in the future. Another scientific methodused has been an explorative examination throughout the literature studies, where these twomethods combined has enabled explanations and causations. The foremost source ofinformation are scientific studies connected to the power system, where KTH’s database Primoand Google Scholar has been used as a primary medium for searches. Authorities and NGOs,such as the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences (IVA) and North EuropeanEnergy Perspectives Project (NEPP), has also been used as a primary source of information.The results show problems connected to lack of effect, inertia as well as a decrease of plannablepower through the closure of nuclear power plants and thermal power plants due to newtaxation. The result also shows that an introduction of wind power to the Swedish power systemalso decrease the national independence and rely more on import of power, mainly fromGermany which have a higher share of fossil elements. In other situations, it also leads to ahigher export where Swedish power removes fossil elements in other countries. Furthermore,a long-term strategy and increased cooperation between the systems actors is crucial for thedevelopment of the future energy system with focus on implementing system services whichare decreasing with the decrease of plannable power. The share of wind power is expected torise to 2030, at the same time the plannable power, nuclear and thermal power, is expected todrop. The national goal of a renewable power generation is reached by the year 2040 is notlikely, where the current nuclear power reactors will remain their entire economic life spanwhich spans to 2045, with chance of life span extension.

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Halmø, Yngve, and Geir-Arne Jenssen. "Scenario testing in a real environment : Key card Administration System at the University Hospital in North Norway." Thesis, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Department of Computer and Information Science, 2006. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:no:ntnu:diva-9318.

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Software is gradually replacing paper based administration systems. The migration to electronic systems is supposed to make life easier for the users. If this is to be the case then these software systems must be created in such a way that the end users are able to use them effectively. To achieve usable systems, software testing must be utilized. There are many ways to test a program, with or without involving real users. Scenario testing is a somewhat poorly documented discipline in software testing, with ambiguous definitions. It does however seem to be well suited in combination with users to test external parts of a software system in a late state of development. This project is based on the work done in the software engineering depth study [12]. There we conducted empirical work and internal testing of the software system KAS, and laid the foundation for this Masters thesis. In this report we have continued the work with this software and concentrated on its external characteristics and user testing. We have analyzed scenario testing further through a software test of this system involving its future users. The users have been given tasks to complete through stories that explain what to do but not how to do it. We have observed the test subjects closely throughout the tests, and collected important data. The results have been evaluated in order to assess their usefulness, which further points to the quality of scenario testing as a testing method. The results have also spawned functional requirements which have been implemented into the KAS. Through this project we have gained experience that can be useful to others conducting scenario tests or doing research in software testing in the future.

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Praz, Bastien. "Energy sector analysis and modeling – From primary to final energy." Thesis, KTH, Energisystemanalys, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-98695.

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Climate change and energy supply limitation are growing concerns. Solving them requires strong implication from our societies and more and more stakeholders and scientists are therefore interested in energy scenarios publication. They indeed provide options to be investigated in order to set the future strategies to tackle these issues. It is within this context that The Shift Project has launched the Scenario project which main purposes are to clarify this specific prospective field and develop a pedagogical energy scenario modeling tool. The Master Thesis work presented in this report is the result of a six months internship in the company within the Scenario project team, and more particularly within the energy scenario modeling tool development team. Beside the energy demand and supply side of a scenario design stands the energy sector. The work focused on this aspect, which corresponds to all the industry and the energy flows standing in between primary energy resources and our final energy consumption. It can therefore be considered as the global conversion process of the energy, which encompasses conversion efficiencies, energy allocation and the different losses. This energy sector is of main concern when one is dealing with energy scenarios since it can contain many possibilities to be investigated in order to set up different variants. Getting a strong knowledge about the energy sector is then crucial. Nevertheless, the global conversion process between primary and final energy still remains a big black box for many of us and therefore prevents us to realize its role and the means that can be applied to explore even further the possible energy scenarios possibilities. To counteract this observation, this thesis work was dedicated to analyze the energy sector at world scale by revealing its components and the main levers that could be used to shape the future energy system. This analysis was conducted via the system approach and lead to the development of a methodology to model the energy sector and develop a module in which cursors enable an end-user to generate a wide range of scenarios and explore different resources allocation options etc. This module is part of TSP’s energy scenario modeling tool together with a demand and a supply side modules. This work is intended to provide a clear vision of the energy sector and the key parameters that might be of main importance to initiate variants study for energy scenarios prospects, such as power efficiencies, energy mix or distribution losses.

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Vat, Kam Hou. "REALSpace AKE : an appreciative knowledge environment architected through soft systems methodology and scenario-based design." Thesis, University of Macau, 2011. http://umaclib3.umac.mo/record=b2492481.

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Larsson, Josefine. "Effect on district heating systems in Dalarna County from energy efficiency measures in buildings - a scenario study to 2050." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Fasta tillståndets fysik, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-170112.

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Energi Intelligent is a program in Dalarna County with the purpose of finding ways of enhancing the efficiency of energy use and thereby be able to reach a more sustainable use of energy resources[1]. The basis of this program is the energy goal that has been prepared for Dalarna County published in Dalarnas miljömål[2]. The energy goal is divided into a number of intermediate goals, the sixth, Delmål 6, is to reduce energy consumption in buildings with 50 percent until 2050, and with 30 percent until 2025[3]. There are often a large number of different sectors involved that have got differing opinions and intentions. This makes the task far more complex than simply reducing energy consumption, because energy efficiency is one goal and that would mean that power companies would not be able to continue increasing their profit. The aim of this project was to analyze the effects on energy production when reducing the use of heat demand in buildings until 2050. The district heating systems constitutes the main part of heating of buildings in the county and that is why it has been analyzed in this project. The simulation tool that was suggested in the declaration of the thesis work was LEAP, the Long range energy alternative planning system tool for simulating different scenarios over years from the base year of the model. The idea was to build energy models of Falun district heating system and Borlänge district heating system in LEAP. Scenarios were defined for the energy goals and then simulated in a model of district heating system. Simulation of the district heating systems were made from the scenarios; reducing the district heating production with 30 percent until 2025 and 50 percent until 2050. The results from the analysis showed that for Falun district heating system the reduction of district heat demand will lead to decreased heat and electricity production and there will be no need for further investment. In Borlänge district heating system capacity is lower than the total capacity of all the available waste resources and there have been discussions about investing in a third municipal waste incineration boiler that would increase the total capacity so Borlänge district heating system could have waste incineration that covers the resources of the fuel cost favorable municipal and industrial waste.

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McKenzie, David L. McKenzie. "Prototyping with Co-designers to Imagine Future Experiences." The Ohio State University, 2016. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1468586592.

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Kliatsko, Aleh. "Scenarios of Wind Power Development Prospects for Belarus by 2020 within a World’s Context." Thesis, KTH, Industriell ekologi, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-53246.

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The aim of the master’s work is to assess the wind-power development prospects andproceeding therefrom assume scenarios of the wind-power development in Belarus until 2020 reasoning from the situations and tendencies common to both the national and world powerindustry. In my master’s work I have referred to ХХI-century current problems: procuring energypreparedness of the Republic of Belarus and reducing the anthropogenic impact on thebiosphere and reducing impact on the climate. For Belarus characteristic is a variety ofenvironmental challenges. For instance, one of the most urgent problems is Chernobyldisaster aftermath which affected Belarus to a very great extent. In my opinion some of these global problems may be partially solved by way of usingalternative energy sources, specifically the wind-power engineering. Such a narrow enough notion as the prediction of the wind-power engineering development inBelarus is described in my work by way of so deep and wide analysis of issues dealing withthe wind-power engineering development and prediction: the encyclical analysis of the stateand development of the power industry in its entirety in Belarus and how to reach energypreparedness at the time when effects of the finance-and-economic crisis are currently addedto other negative factors. It has been done specially for the purpose of making such an accurate prediction as possiblehaving analyzed the whole range of interrelated problems. I pitched upon the prediction of the development of the wind-power engineering preciselyuntil 2020 since I’d like to be tied to the basic document: “the National Strategy ofSustainable Social-and-Economic Development of the Republic of Belarus for a Period until2020”. In my work I have analyzed a possibility and horizons of developing the power industry inBelarus based on sustainable development principles. I have proved a capability andprofitability of developing renewable energy sources in Belarus. And the main emphasis wason considering the wind-power engineering. For Belarusian conditions there has beenproposed an optimum alternative of the integrated approach to developing the wind-powerengineering, i.e. joint using the wind-power engineering with other renewable and exhaustibleenergy sources. In this manner there has been refuted an opinion generally held that the windpower engineering development in Belarus is prospectless. In so doing the author, prior to turning to a major issue of the work: the prospects ofdeveloping the wind-power engineering in the Republic of Belarus, has given an estimate ofworld reserves of fuel resources and drawn up the following conclusions: deposits of fossilfuels are depleting and, consequently, the cost of mining operations will grow. Due to the factthat the main extraction of power resources is shifted to extreme regions the cost of conveying energy products is growing. Belarus has to import deficient power resources. Recently the price for Russian energy products for Belarus has grown dramatically. I have also approached the issue of expediency of building an atomic power station in Belarus. The prospects and consequences of using unconventional renewable energy sources in theRepublic of Belarus (with no wind-power engineering) are considered in all their aspectsfollowed by a detailed consideration of the prospects of developing the wind-powerengineering in the Republic of Belarus. Based on the above data there have been proposed two scenarios of developing the wind power engineering in Belarus: Scenario 1 «Unsustainable» and Scenario 2, which I called «Middle way to sustainable energy engineering».
Syftet med magister-arbetet är att bedöma vindkraftverkens utvecklingsmöjligheter och därifrån anta scenarier för vindkraftutvecklingen i Vitryssland till 2020, genom resonemang från de situationer och tendenser som är gemensamma för både nationella och internationella kraftindustrin. I mitt magister-arbete har jag hänvisat till 2000-talets nuvarande problem: att skaffa energisäkerhet i Republiken Vitryssland, minska effekterna av mänsklighetens påverkan på biosfären och minska påverkan på klimatet. Vitryssland kännetecknas av en rad olika utmaningar på miljöområdet. Till exempel är en av de mest akuta problemen Tjernobylkatastrofens efterdyningar som påverkade Vitryssland i mycket stor utsträckning. Min åsikt är att en del av dessa globala problem kan delvis lösas genom att använda alternativa energikällor, särskilt vindkraft-tekniken. Ett sådant specifierat begrepp som förutsägelsen av vindkraftteknikens utveckling i Vitryssland beskrivs i mitt arbete i form av en djup och bred analys av frågor som handlar om vindkraftteknikens utveckling och prognoser: Analysen av läget och utvecklingen av kraftindustrin i sin helhet i Vitryssland och hur man når energi-säkerhet när effekterna av finanskrisen för närvarande läggs till andra negativa faktorer. Det har gjorts speciellt för att göra en sådan precis förutsägelse som möjligt genom att ha analyserat hela raden av sammanhängande problem. Jag fokuserade på prognoser om utvecklingen av vindkraft-teknik innan 2020 eftersom jag vill vara bunden till det grundläggande dokument: ”den nationella strategin för hållbar socialoch ekonomisk utveckling i Vitryssland under en period fram till 2020”. I mitt arbete har jag analyserat en mängd olika möjlighet för att utveckla kraftindustrin i Vitryssland som bygger på principerna för hållbar utveckling. Jag har visat att det går att utveckla förnybara energikällor i Vitryssland, som är både kapabla och lönsamma. Med sikte på att använda sig av vindkraft-tekniken. För de vitryska förhållandena har det föreslagits ett optimalt alternativ för den integrerade strategin för att utveckla vindkraft-tekniken, dvs gemensamt med hjälp av vindkraft-teknik och med andra förnybara och icke förnybara energikällor. På detta sätt har det finns det en allmän åsikt angående vindkraft-teknikens utveckling i Vitryssland, som säger att det inte finns några direkta förutsättningar för denna typ av energi. Därigenom har författaren, innan upptagandet av huvud frågan i arbetet:,utsikterna att utveckla vindkraft teknik i Republiken Vitryssland, gjort en beräkning av världens reserver av bränsle-resurser och kommit fram till följande slutsatser: depåerna av fossila bränslen håller på att ta slut och därmed kommer kostnaderna för utvinning att växa. På grund av det faktum att huvuddelen av utvinningen av bränsle flyttas till extrema regioner så kommer kostnaden för att tillhandahålla energiprodukter växa. Vitryssland måste importera bristfälligt bränsle. Nyligen har priset för ryska energiprodukter för Vitryssland ökat dramatiskt. Jag har också tagit upp frågan om lämpligheten av att bygga ett kärnkraftverk i Vitryssland. Förutsättningarna och konsekvenserna av att använda okonventionella förnybara energikällor bedömning av möjligheterna att utveckla vindkraft tekniken i Vitryssland. Baserat på ovanstående data har det lagts fram två scenarier för utvecklandet av vindkrafttekniken i Vitryssland: Scenario 1 «Ohållbart» och Scenario 2, som jag kallade «Vägen mellan hållbar energi-teknologi».

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Farahmand, Ghaffarpour Mehdi, and Henrik Ros. "Integration of thermochemical heat storage with a municipal district heating system : In future scenario with large variations in electricity price." Thesis, Mälardalens högskola, Framtidens energi, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-39775.

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This thesis investigates the feasibility and benefits of integrating Thermochemical heat Storage (THS) into a CHP (Combined Heat and Power) plant. A case study is done for the CHP-plant in Sala, Sweden, with a maximum heat output of 20.9 MW and maximum electricity output of 9.6 MW. The THS type considered is calcium oxide in a hydroxide system. The fluctuations in electricity price for years 2020, 2030 and 2040 are considered and low-price electricity is used as a charging source for THS. During charging the superheated steam (endothermic reaction) is used to cover some of the district heating demand. The high temperature discharge from the THS is used as reheat in the Rankine cycle. The operations are modeled in Ebsilon and optimization is done in MATLAB using genetic algorithm with the objective to achieve maximum annual revenue. The results suggest that it is not feasible to introduce THS with electricity as a charging source in year 2020, but in 2030 and 2040 THS shows promising potential. The biggest increase in revenue comes from reduced fuel consumption, and, to a lesser extent, increased income from electricity. It is concluded that Calcium hydroxide is a promising candidate for integration into CHP during large electricity price fluctuation. The main drivers for the feasibility of this combination are high fuel price and large fluctuations of electricity price.

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Gançarski, Pierre. "Le controle de l'interactivite et du temps dans la production d'animation." Université Louis Pasteur (Strasbourg) (1971-2008), 1988. http://www.theses.fr/1988STR13217.

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Etude des concepts entrant dans la definition d'un systeme destine a realiser des animations simples a scenario interactif. L'idee de base consiste a associer un acteur a chacun des intervenants d'une animation et a conserver le scenario dans son integralite. Ce scenario est un programme qui gere l'ensemble des evenements reconnus par l'animation ainsi que certains types de liens entre acteurs ou de contraintes appliquees a ceux-ci. Ce programme est mis sous forme d'un systeme reactif. La structure du systeme realise, ses differents composants et son implantation sont decrits en esterel et c**(++)

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Gunzenhauser, Jan. "Application of real-time HRV biofeedback in the scenario of meditation practice : Feasibility, usability and medical fidelity." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för medieteknik (ME), 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-45420.

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Chronic stress is a prevalent and universally present hazard in modern society. It lowers the quality of life for individuals and significantly con- tributes to unsustainable health care costs. Therefore it is important to have natural and noninvasive ways of controlling stress. One such way is meditation, a technique which has been practiced for over five thousand years to improve stress regulation. Also, proceedings in sensing technologies lead to the discovery of biofeedback as another cost-effective technique for stress assessment and reduction. In continuation of research on real-time reflective human-computer-interfaces, this thesis combines these techniques by exploring the application of electrocardiography sensing technology in a heart rate variability (HRV) biofeedback system for the scenario of medita- tion practice. A proof-of-concept prototype was designed and implemented which quantifies stress and gives feedback on meditation effectiveness. For evaluation, a user study has been performed. Results were analysed in a systematic way to evaluate the feasibility and acceptance of the solution as well as the fidelity of HRV data that was measured during user tests. The prototype was found to be feasible in the context of technology acceptance while the fidelity of data, acquired by an algorithm for time and frequency domain analysis of HRV, was confirmed. A final conclusion is that the reflective aspect of the implemented real-time biofeedback system helps to improve regulatory capacity and thus lowers stress in individuals.

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Beer, Simon. "Managing uncertainty in production system design during early-phase product development : A scenario-based case study within the commercial vehicle industry." Thesis, KTH, Industriell produktion, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-273185.

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Background Production systems of automotive companies are exposed to various change drivers in increasingly volatile market environments. In order to manage the different areas of complexity, time, costs and quality it is necessary to continually adapt and reconsider production systems. Besides other company internal and external change drivers, product development projects initiate such adaption measures in production systems design. Characteristic for production system design activities during early-phase product development is the inadequate data and information basis. Existing methodologies for production system design assume an already existing production system and the optimization towards specific key performance indicators. Other methodologies that accompany the product development process focus solely on specific production process aspects. Consequently, a methodology for holistic determination and consideration of uncertainties in production system design during early-phase production development is needed. Aim The aim of the thesis is therefore to develop, apply and evaluate a framework that enables a structured concretization of uncertainties concerning product development projects and other company external and internal uncertainties. Furthermore, the framework should facilitate identifying which impact those uncertainties could have on the existing production system and how to develop and evaluate countermeasures. Samples The study was conducted within the commercial vehicle industry and in cooperation with ScaniaCV AB located in Södertälje, Sweden as an industrial research partner. Methods Based on a literature review and in consideration of the needs of the industrial research partner, the requirements on the framework were defined. The individual sections of the framework incorporate adaptations of existing methodologies as well as methods purpose-developed in thecourse of the thesis. The application of the framework took place within the department of transmission manufacturing in the course of a new transmission development project. Results The results show that through the application of the framework, uncertainties connected to a new transmission development project were significantly reduced. Affected production system areas were identified and adequate measures in production system design were initiated. Conclusions The developed framework enables managing uncertainties in production system design during early phase product development. Furthermore, the structured way of working and documentationi ncreases the cooperation and communication between product and production development as well as the overall transparency within the development project.
Bakgrund Produktionssystem inom fordonsindustrin utsätts för olika förändringsfaktorer i en allt mer flyktig marknadsmiljö. För att hantera de motstridiga områdena komplexitet, tid, kostnad och kvalitet är det nödvändigt att hela tiden anpassa och ompröva produktionssystem. Förutom andra interna och externa förändringsfaktorer initierar produktutvecklingsprojekt sådana anpassningsåtgärder vid design av produktionssystem. Karaktäristisk för utvecklingen av produktionssystem i den tidiga fasen av produktutvecklingen är den otillräckliga data- och informationsbasen. Befintliga metoder för design av produktionssystembaseras på ett befintligt produktionssystem och optimering av vissa viktiga prestandaindikatorer. Andra metoder som följer med produktutvecklingsprocessen fokuserar uteslutande på specifika aspekter av produktionsprocessen. Därför krävs en metod för helhetsbestämning och hänsyn till osäkerheter i utformningen av produktionssystem i den tidiga fasen av produktionsutvecklingen. Mål Syftet med avhandlingen är därför att utveckla, tillämpa och utvärdera en metod som möjliggör en strukturerad specifikation av osäkerheter i produktutvecklingsprojekt och andra externa och interna osäkerheter i företaget. Dessutom bör metodiken göra det lättare att avgöra vilken påverkan dessa osäkerheter kan ha på det befintliga produktionssystemet och hur motåtgärder kan utvecklas och utvärderas. Forskningsomfång Studien genomfördes inom kommersiella fordonsindustrin och i samarbete med Scania CV AB baserat i Södertälje, Sverige, som en industriell forskningspartner. Metoder Baserat på en litteraturöversikt och med beaktande av den industriella forskningspartnerns behov definierades kraven för metodiken. I varje del av ramverket finns det både anpassningar av befintliga metoder och metoder som har utvecklats under arbetets gång. Ramverket användes inom tillverkningsavdelningen för växellådan som en del av ett nytt utvecklingsprojekt. Resultat Resultaten visar att tillämpningen av ramverket avsevärt minskade osäkerheten i samband med ett nytt utvecklingsprojekt. Påverkade områden i produktionssystemet identifierades och lämpliga åtgärder för utformningen av produktionssystemet inleddes. Slutsatser Studien visar att den utvecklade metodiken gör det möjligt att kontrollera osäkerheter i utformningen av produktionssystem i den tidiga fasen av produktutvecklingen. Dessutom förbättrar det strukturerade sättet att arbeta och dokumentera samarbetet och kommunikationen mellan produkt- och produktionsutveckling samt total öppenhet inom utvecklingsprojektet.

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Horyachyy, Oleh. "Comparison of Wireless Communication Technologies used in a Smart Home : Analysis of wireless sensor node based on Arduino in home automation scenario." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Institutionen för datalogi och datorsystemteknik, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-14845.

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Context. Internet of Things (IoT) is an extension of the Internet, which now includes physical objects of the real world. The main purpose of Internet of Things is to increase a quality of people’s daily life. A smart home is one of the promising areas in the Internet of Things which increases rapidly. It allows users to control their home devices anytime from any location in the world using Internet connectivity and automate their work based on the physical environment conditions and user preferences. The main issues in deploying the architecture of IoT are the security of the communication between constrained low-power devices in the home network and device performance. Battery lifetime is a key QoS parameter of a battery-powered IoT device which limits the level of security and affects the performance of the communication. These issues have been deepened with the spread of cheap and easy to use microcontrollers which are used by electronic enthusiasts to build their own home automation projects. Objectives. In this study, we investigated wireless communication technologies used in low-power and low-bandwidth home area networks to determine which of them are most suitable for smart home applications. We also investigated the correlation between security, power consumption of constrained IoT device, and performance of wireless communication based on a model of a home automation system with a sensor node. Sensor node was implemented using Arduino Nano microcontroller and RF 433 MHz wireless communication module. Methods. To achieve the stated objectives of this research following methods were chosen: literature review to define common applications and communication technologies used in a smart home scenario and their requirements, comparison of wireless communication technologies in smart home, study of Arduino microcontroller technology, design and simulation of a part of home automation project based on Arduino, experimental measurements of execution time and power consumption of Arduino microcontroller with RF 433 MHz wireless module when transmitting data with different levels of security, and analysis of experimental results. Results. In this research, we presented a detailed comparison of ZigBee, WiFi, Bluetooth, Z-Wave, and ANT communication technologies used in a smart home in terms of the main characteristics. Furthermore, we considered performance, power consumption, and security. A model of a home automation system with a sensor node based on Arduino Nano was described with sleep management and performance evaluation. The results show that the battery lifetime of Arduino in a battery-powered sensor node scenario is determined by the communication speed, sleep management, and affected by encryption. Conclusions. The advanced communication strategy can be used to minimize the power consumption of the device and increase the efficiency of the communication. In that case, our security measures will reduce the productivity and lifetime of the sensor node not significantly. It’s also possible to use symmetric encryption with smaller block size.

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Cluzel, François. "Eco-design implementation for complex industrial system : From scenario-based LCA to the definition of an eco-innovative R&D projects portfolio." Phd thesis, Ecole Centrale Paris, 2012. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00760580.

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Face to the growing awareness of environmental concerns issued from human activities, eco-design aims at offering a satisfying answer in the products and services development field. However when the considered products become complex industrial systems, there is a lack of adapted methodologies and tools. These systems are among others characterised by a large number of components and subsystems, an extremely long and uncertain life cycle, or complex interactions with their geographical and industrial environment. This change of scale actually brings different constraints, as well in the evaluation of environmental impacts generated all along the system life cycle (data management and quality, detail level according to available resources...) as in the identification of adapted answers (management of multidisciplinary aspects and available resources, players training, inclusion in an upstream R&D context...). So this dissertation aims at developing a methodology to implement ecodesign of complex industrial systems. A general methodology is first proposed, based on a DMAIC process (Define, Measure, Analyse, Improve, Control). This methodology allows defining in a structured way the framework (objectives, resources, perimeter, phasing...) and rigorously supporting the ecodesign approach applied on the system. A first step of environmental evaluation based on Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA) is thus performed at a high systemic level. Given the complexity of the system life cycle as well as the exploitation variability that may exist from one site to another, a scenario-based approach is proposed to quickly consider the space of possible environmental impacts. Scenarios of exploitation are defined thanks to the SRI (Stanford Research Institute) matrix and they include numerous elements that are rarely considered in LCA, like preventive and corrective maintenance, subsystems upgrading or lifetime modulation according to the economic context. At the conclusion of this LCA the main impacting elements of the system life cycle are known and they permit to initiate the second step of the eco-design approach centred on environmental improvement. A multidisciplinary working group perform a creativity session centred on the eco-design strategy wheel (or Brezet wheel), a resource-efficient eco-innovation tool that requires only a basic environmental knowledge. Ideas generated during creativity are then analysed through three successive filters allowing: (1) to pre-select and to refine the best projects; (2) to build a R&D projects portfolio thanks to a multi-criteria approach assessing not only their environmental performance, but also their technical, economic and customers' value creation performance; (3) to control the portfolio balance according to the company strategy and the projects diversity (short/middle/long term aspect, systemic level...). All this work was applied and validated at Alstom Grid on electrical conversion substations used in the primary aluminium industry. The methodology deployment has allowed initiating a robust eco-design approach recognized by the company and finally generating a portfolio composed of 9 eco-innovative R&D projects that will be started in the coming months.

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Barreca, Francesco. "Analisi dinamica del ciclo integrato dell'acciaio: un approccio basato sulla simulazione." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2011. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/1851/.

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Анотація:

Nella presente tesi viene analizzato in modo approfondito il ciclo integrato dell'acciaio che è uno dei metodi più consolidati e affermati per la produzione sia di semilavorati, sia di prodotti finiti di acciaio. L'approccio all'analisi del ciclo integrato dell'acciaio è di tipo dinamico e basato sulla simulazione, vale a dire che si cerca di capire come e in che modo i vari fattori del ciclo integrato interagiscono e si influenzano fra di loro per cercare in seguto di esplicitare tali dinamiche in un unico modello di simulazione. Sino ad ora infatti nella letteratura si possono trovare modelli che analizzano separatamente solo alcuni aspetti del ciclo integrato dell'acciaio. L'intenzione ultima di questa tesi è quella di fornire uno strumento in più che possa far capire, date determinate caratteristiche e obiettivi dell'azienda, quale sia la direzione più plausibile e giustificabile da seguire.

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Itani, Nadine M. "Policy development framework for aviation strategic planning in developing countries." Thesis, Cranfield University, 2015. http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/9217.

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There exists no predefined framework for aviation policy making and development. While aviation policy planning in most developed countries comes as a result of institutional and industry coordination and is embedded within other national policies addressing the welfare and growth of the country, it is found that in many cases in less developed countries (LDCs), aviation policy planning is often influenced by political pressures and the interests of fund donors. The complexity of this situation in the developing countries results in aviation plans that represent stand alone studies and attempt to find solutions to specific problems rather than comprehensive aviation plans which fit well the country‘s competitiveness profile and are properly coordinated with other national policies for achieving medium and long-term objectives. This study provides a three-stage policy development framework for aviation strategic planning based on situational analysis and performance benchmarking practices in order to assemble policy elements and produce a best-fit aviation strategy. The framework builds on study results that indicate an association between air transport sector performance and aviation policy strategies, arguing that it is not sufficient to simply describe performance but also to be able to assess it and understand how policymakers can use strategic planning tools to affect the air transport industry efficiency levels. This can be achieved by recognizing the level of the country‘s stage of development and working on enhancing the policy elements that produce better output and induce more contributions by aviation to the national economic development and connectivity levels. The proposed aviation policy development framework is systematic and continuous. It helps policymakers in LDC to manage uncertainty in complex situations by allowing them to defend, correct and re-examine the policy actions based on a forward thinking approach which incorporates the contingency elements of the policy and tracks the developments that can affect the odds of its success. The framework‘s elements and its flow of process are explained by providing an illustrative example applied to the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.

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Ekstrand, Christian, and Farsad Mansori. "Stability Related Issues for High Wind Power Penetration : Exploring possibilities to enhance grid stability from synthetic inertia in a future scenario." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för fysik och elektroteknik (IFE), 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-96442.

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The future global energy transition favour renewables such as wind power, which is predicted to be one of the predominant sources harvesting abundant amounts of energy onwards. Consequently, causing several conventional synchronous generators to be decommissioned in a near future to achieve an overall reduction in greenhouse gases related to electricity generation. However, this evolution comes with new challenges regarding power system stability that could jeopardize the reliability of the grid as we today know it. Therefore, this thesis will examine how high penetrations of wind power are impacting each fundamental criterion regarding power system stability. For this purpose, are two different scenarios being carried out in Siemens PSS/E, representing a futuristic case as well as a present one. The simulation results themselves are being compared with analogies drawn from previous studies conducted within the field to determine if it can be improved.

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Menezes, Felipe Morais. "Proposta de desenvolvimento de um método sistêmico de formulação estratégica integrando planejamento estratégico, pensamento sistêmico e planejamento por cenários." Universidade do Vale do Rio do Sinos, 2008. http://www.repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/2339.

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Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-05T17:04:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 24
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Em ambientes cada vez mais complexos e competitivos, aqueles que conseguem formular uma estratégia robusta e fundamentada terão mais chances de sucesso. Esta pesquisa tem por objetivo desenvolver um método integrando os conceitos, princípios e práticas das abordagens de pensamento sistêmico, planejamento por cenários e planejamento estratégico, visando auxiliar no processo de formulação estratégica. A metodologia de pesquisa se caracteriza pela abordagem qualitativa e o estudo de caso é de natureza exploratória. Associado ao estudo de caso, para subsidiar a proposição do método, foram realizadas entrevistas com os condutores e participantes. Além destes subsídios empíricos, foram considerados as fontes teóricas que abordam os conceitos de planejamento estratégico, pensamento sistêmico e planejamento por cenários. Baseado nas análises das entrevistas, na exploração do estudo de caso e nas teorias apresentadas, é proposto um método sistêmico de formulação estratégica que possa auxiliar organizações de qual
In complex and competitive environments, those organizations that obtain a robust and based formulated strategy will have more possibilities of success. This research has for objective to develop a method integrating the concepts and principles and of the system thinking, scenario planning and strategic planning, aiming at to assist in the strategic formularization process. The research methodology is characterized by a qualitative approach and the case study it is an exploratory feature. Associated to the case study, to subsidize the proposal of the method, interviews with the conductors and participants had been carried through. Beyond these empirical subsidies, the theoretical sources had been considered that approach the concepts of strategic planning, system thinking and scenario planning. Based in the interviews analysis, in the case study exploration and in the presented theories, a system method of strategic formularization is considered that can assist organizations of any type in its strategic proce

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46

Gustafsson, Isabel, and Agnes Rönnblom. "Life Cycle Assessment of a surface radar system : A case study at Saab Electronic Defence Systems." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Industriell miljöteknik, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-122720.

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This master thesis was performed with the main purpose of evaluating the environmental performance of a surface radar system with the means of a life cycle assessment, LCA. Saab Electronic Defence Systems, EDS, was the initiator and driver of the project, and is also owner of the radar system evaluated. Apart from the environmental performance the project was carried out with the intention of EDS wanting to gain knowledge about working with LCA, both in terms of methodology and to get an insight into whether and how well they can work with the tool in their current situation. In order to assess the radar systems environmental impact through its entire life cycle there was emphasis on the use phase since the object can be used in several different ways under various circumstances. Eight different operational profiles were thus addressed in order to compare these variations in use scenarios. In addition, studies were performed on whether there exist any guidelines on how use phase scenarios can or should be defined when conducting an LCA. The LCA was performed in accordance with the ISO 14040 family and the database Ecoinvent has been used for mapping the in- and outflows. To calculate the potential environmental impacts ReCiPé was used, where three out of 18 impact categories were chosen to focus upon in agreement with EDS, namely climate change, fossil depletion and mineral resource depletion. Apart from within some business areas, conclusion could be drawn that no general guidelines exist for the definition of the use phase in an LCA. Besides being described in order to increase transparency in the assessment, no further requirements are set by ISO. Found through the assessment is that the use phase shows a major contribution to the overall environmental impacts from the entire life cycle, by being accountable for roughly 85 %. Depending on impact category, the cause lies with either the radar operation due to its large amount of diesel consumption or with the extraction of materials needed to provide for the replacement of faulty components during maintenance. In accordance with their share of the object’s weight, aluminium, copper and iron stand for about 77 % of the materials environmental impact. Noticeable is though that gold takes place on the top ten list of contributing materials with its 0.0001 % of the total weight, meaning that not only do the large amounts of a material matter, more important is the relation between weight and environmental impact. Regarding the eight operational profiles, out of the two parameters compared the radar operation proved to have significantly larger impacts in all three impact categories than the vehicle operation. Interestingly enough, it was found that if the radar and vehicle would have the same amount of operating hours, the vehicle would have larger impacts than the radar. In conclusion, from an environmental perspective it is more important to keep the vehicle operating hours low. However, since the radar operating hours are high at this point it would make a significant difference in reducing the radar fuel consumption. Lastly, for EDS to be able to continue in working with LCA, conclusions are drawn that a more qualified information base needs to be built up within the organization to avoid as much assumptions as possible, this in order to achieve more reliable results.
Detta examensarbete utfördes med det huvudsakliga syftet att utvärdera miljöprestandan av ett markradarsystem med hjälp av en livscykelanalys, LCA. Saab Electronic Defence Systems, EDS, både tog initiativ till och drev projektet. De är även ägare av det utvärderade markradar-systemet. Utöver miljöprestandan utfördes examensarbetet även med avsikt att bistå EDS med kunskap om att arbeta med LCA, både vad gäller metodiken och för att ge en inblick i om och hur väl de kan arbeta med verktyget under nuvarande förhållanden. För att kunna bedöma radarsystemets miljöpåverkan genom hela dess livscykel lades betoning på användningsfasen då objektet kan användas på ett flertal sätt under olika omständigheter. Åtta olika driftsprofiler sattes därmed upp för att jämföra dessa varierande användnings-scenarier. Dessutom studerades om det idag finns några riktlinjer för hur användningsfasen kan eller bör definieras vid utförandet av en LCA. Analysen utfördes i enlighet med ISO 14040-familjen och databasen Ecoinvent har använts för kartläggning av in- och utflöden. För att beräkna den potentiella miljöpåverkan som uppstår användes ReCiPé, där tre utav 18 miljö-påverkanskategorier valdes att fokusera på, nämligen klimatförändring, fossil utarmning och utarmning av mineraler. Bortsett från några branscher kunde slutsatsen dras att inga generella riktlinjer finns för definitionen av användningsfasen i en LCA. Utöver att beskriva sina val i syfte att öka transparensen i analysen ställs inga ytterligare krav av ISO. Genom att bidra till omkring 85 % av den totala miljöpåverkan visade sig användningsfasen vara överlägsen i förhållande till övriga faser i livscykeln. Beroende på påverkanskategori är den bakomliggande orsaken antingen radardriften, på grund av sin stora mängd dieselförbrukning, eller utvinningen av de ämnen som behövs för utbytet av felaktiga komponenter vid underhåll. I enlighet med deras andel av hela den funktionella enhetens vikt står aluminium, koppar och järn för ungefär 77 % av de utvunna ämnenas miljöpåverkan. Noterbart är dock att guld placerar sig på topp tio-listan över bidragande ämnen med sin andel på 0.0001 % av den totala vikten, vilket innebär att det inte bara är stora mängder av ämnen som spelar roll utan också förhållandet mellan vikt och miljöpåverkan. Vad gäller de åtta driftsprofilerna och dess två ingående parametrar visade sig radardrift ha betydligt större påverkan inom alla tre miljö-påverkanskategorier än fordonsdrift. Anmärkningsvärt nog visade det sig att om radar och fordon skulle ha samma driftstider skulle fordonsdrift bidra med den större miljöpåverkan av de två. Ur miljösynpunkt skulle det därför vara viktigare att hålla fordonets driftstid nere, men eftersom driftstiden för radar i dagsläget är avsevärt högre skulle det göra större skillnad att reducera radarns dieselförbrukning. Slutligen, för att EDS ska kunna fortskrida sitt arbete med LCA, dras slutsatsen att en mer kvalificerad informationsbas måste byggas upp inom organisationen. Detta för att i så hög grad som möjligt kunna undvika antaganden, i syfte att uppnå mer tillförlitliga resultat.

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47

Lee, Ching-Hsien, and 李青憲. "Multi-scenario asset allocation system." Thesis, 2002. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/28446941501706109259.

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碩士
元智大學
資訊管理學系
90
In order to proceed the result of the long term asset allocation, we often use Mean-Variance optimization (MVO) model. According to the related thesis about MVO model, forecasts of the expected returns and covariance of the assets are on the basis of historical average at some period in the past. However, historical average is not sufficient to present the conditions and historical averages at some different period time, so the results of the efficient frontier are huge different and unstable.Therefore, this thesis using multi-scenarios model for asset allocation not only takes into consideration about a large number of potential scenarios and every scenario’s probability, but also estimates the different asset’s return in every scenario. By this way, it will make the efficient frontier more correct. Finally, we propose a distributed multi-scenario asset allocation system providing information for investors to construct the asset allocation efficiently.

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簡聰茂. "A Scenario-based Corrective Learning System." Thesis, 1994. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/98726721196760128128.

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碩士
國立臺灣師範大學
資訊教育研究所
82
Since some learning- disabled problems are concerned with misconceptions in students'' knowledge, this thesis explores the topics concerning the construction of a scenario - based corrective learning system for correcting students'' misconceptions such that improves their learning performance. Based on the theories of mastery learning and elaborated corrective feedback, the rationale of the corrective learning system is founded. Our system can be viewed as a computer implementation of the mastery learning theory for a specific domain. The topics in our research includes selection of domain knowledge (basic electricity), analysis of the misconceptions, design of corrective scenarios, and construction of the corrective learning system, etc. The systme has also been evaluated as effective by a practical educational experiment. The result is positive and encourageous.

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Costa, Rodrigo Ardachessian. "Predictive Maintenance Support System in Industry 4.0 Scenario." Dissertação, 2020. https://hdl.handle.net/10216/132743.

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The fourth industrial revolution that is being witnessed nowadays, also known as Industry 4.0, is heavily related to the digitization of manufacturing systems and the integration of different technologies to optimize manufacturing. By combining data acquisition using specific sensors and machine learning algorithms to analyze this data and predict a failure before it happens, Predictive Maintenance is a critical tool to implement towards reducing downtime due to unpredicted stoppages caused by malfunctions. Based on the reality of Commercial Specialty Tires factory at Continental Mabor - Indústria de Pneus, S.A., the present work describes several problems faced regarding equipment maintenance. Taking advantage of the information gathered from studying the processes incorporated in the factory, it is designed a solution model for applying predictive maintenance in these processes. The model is divided into two primary layers, hardware, and software. Concerning hardware, sensors and respective applications are delineated. In terms of software, techniques of data analysis namely machine learning algorithms are described so that the collected data is studied to detect possible failures.

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50

Costa, Rodrigo Ardachessian. "Predictive Maintenance Support System in Industry 4.0 Scenario." Master's thesis, 2020. https://hdl.handle.net/10216/132743.

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Анотація:

The fourth industrial revolution that is being witnessed nowadays, also known as Industry 4.0, is heavily related to the digitization of manufacturing systems and the integration of different technologies to optimize manufacturing. By combining data acquisition using specific sensors and machine learning algorithms to analyze this data and predict a failure before it happens, Predictive Maintenance is a critical tool to implement towards reducing downtime due to unpredicted stoppages caused by malfunctions. Based on the reality of Commercial Specialty Tires factory at Continental Mabor - Indústria de Pneus, S.A., the present work describes several problems faced regarding equipment maintenance. Taking advantage of the information gathered from studying the processes incorporated in the factory, it is designed a solution model for applying predictive maintenance in these processes. The model is divided into two primary layers, hardware, and software. Concerning hardware, sensors and respective applications are delineated. In terms of software, techniques of data analysis namely machine learning algorithms are described so that the collected data is studied to detect possible failures.

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Дисертації з теми "System "scenario"

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