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1
Egbunike, Chukwudi Muofunanya Uchenna. "A system dynamics mineral exploitation model." Thesis, Imperial College London, 1987. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/38295.
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Liu, Fuping. "A system dynamics model for hydropower generation planning." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2002. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk3/ftp05/MQ62782.pdf.
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3
Jootar, Jay 1975. "A risk dynamics model of complex system development." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/8480.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Thesis (Ph.D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 2002.Includes bibliographical references (p. 201-204).
The development of complex systems is a challenging endeavor which has captured the attentions of scholars and practitioners alike. Throughout the decades, numerous methods have been proposed to help manage such development efforts more effectively and efficiently. Some of these methods, such as prototyping, concurrent engineering, iterative model for software development, and system-focused development for R&D, are process models which recommend better ways to structure the development process to handle the complexity of the system under development. This thesis seeks to understand the complex system development from a risk perspective. Continuing from the work done by other researchers, this work combines issues which are traditionally considered separately into one single model. More specifically, the model explicitly captures the dependencies in the system and the structure of an iterative development process and their interactions. The resulting mathematical problem demonstrates the risk characteristics of a development process. It shows that the optimality calls for a trade-off between the reduction of the probability of risk and the increase in the impact of risk. From its structure, the model also helps us understand how different aspects of system architecture affect the structure and the performance of the development process. In addition, the model also reveals the fundamental problems of process models and proposes a generic risk-based alternative. To explore the applicability of the model, the thesis also provides a case study in a software development process and a set of heuristics for solving the resulting combinatorial problem.
by Jay Jootar.
Ph.D.
4
Tan, HockWoo. "Agent-based model and system dynamics model for peace-keeping operations." Thesis, Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/44010.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimitedMilitary operations other than war (MOOTW) make up a large percentage of total military operations. Some common MOOTW operations are peacekeeping (PKO) and humanitarian assistance, and disaster relief (HADR). System dynamics (SD) uses a top-down approach that models high-level system behavior as compared to the use of agent-based modeling (ABM), which uses a bottom-up approach to generate system-level behavior through emergent behavior. In this work, SD and ABM were applied to model a food distribution scenario during the early phases of PK/HADR and the implementation process and results compared. The results were that large variations in food prices were observed as the time step and the integration technique were varied. Both SD and ABM, however, displayed similar emergent behavior in terms of crimes that occurred due to relative deprivation within the population. As an alternative to time step approximation, discrete event simulation (DES) may be used to implement the SD model through discretization of stocks or flows within the system and identifying events that change these quantities. The quantization of continuous variables in SD into discrete quantities may, however, introduce quantization errors. Emergent behavior seen in ABM can occur in SD through the interactions between equations. Due to the compactness of SD equations, it feels less intuitive to develop models using SD than it does to develop models using ABM.
5
Sontamino, Phongpat. "Decision support system of coal mine planning using system dynamics model." Doctoral thesis, Technische Universitaet Bergakademie Freiberg Universitaetsbibliothek "Georgius Agricola", 2015. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:105-qucosa-159919.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Coal is a fossil fuel mineral, which is presently a major source of electricity and energy to industries. From past to present, there are many coal reserves around the world and large scale coal mining operates in various areas such as the USA, Russia, China, Australia, India, and Germany, etc. Thailand’s coal resources can be found in many areas; there are lignite mining in the north of Thailand, the currently operational Mae Moh Lignite Mine, and also coal reserves in the south of Thailand, such as Krabi and Songkhla, where mines are not yet operating. The main consumption of coal is in electricity production, which increases annually. In 2019, the Thai Government and Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) plans to run a 800 MW coal power plant at Krabi, which may run on imported coal, despite there being reserves of lignite at Krabi; the use of domestic coal is a last option because of social and environmental concerns about the effects of coal mining. There is a modern trend in mining projects, the responsibility of mining should cover not only the mining activity, but the social and environmental protection and mine closure activities which follow. Thus, the costs and decisions taken on by the mining company are increasingly complicated.
To reach a decision on investment in a mining project is not easy; it is a complex process in which all variables are connected. Particularly, the responsibility of coal mining companies to society and the environment is a new topic. Thus, a tool to help to recognize and generate information for decision making is in demand and very important. In this thesis, the system dynamics model of coal mine planning is made by using Vensim Software and specifically designed to encompass many variables during the period of mining activity until the mine closure period. The decisions use economic criteria such as Net Present Value (NPV), Net Cash Flow (NCF), Payback Period (PP), and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), etc.
Consequently, the development of the decision support system of coal mine planning as a tool is proposed. The model structure covers the coal mining area from mine reserves to mine closure. It is a fast and flexible tool to perform sensitivity analysis, and to determine an optimum solution. The model results are clear and easily understandable on whether to accept or reject the coal mine project, which helps coal mining companies make the right decisions on their policies, economics, and the planning of new coal mining projects.
Furthermore, the model is used to analyse the case study of the Krabi coal-fired power plant in Thailand, which may possibly use the domestic lignite at Krabi. The scenario simulations clearly show some potential for the use of the domestic lignite. However, the detailed analysis of the Krabi Lignite Mine Project case shows the high possible risks of this project, and that this project is currently not feasible. Thus, the model helps to understand and confirm that the use of domestic lignite in Krabi for the Krabi Coal Power Plant Project is not suitable at this time. Therefore, the best choice is imported coal from other countries for supporting the Krabi Coal Power Plant Project.
Finally, this tool successfully is a portable application software, which does not need to be installed on a computer, but can run directly in a folder of the existing application. Furthermore, it supports all versions of Windows OS.
6
Mbiti, Titus Kivaa Peter, and tkivaap@yahoo com. "A System Dynamics Model of Construction Output in Kenya." RMIT University. Property Construction & Project Management, 2008. http://adt.lib.rmit.edu.au/adt/public/adt-VIT20081211.160910.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This study investigates fluctuations of construction output, and growth of the output in Kenya. Fluctuation and growth of construction activity are matters of concern in construction industries of many countries in the developing as well as in the developed world. The construction industry of Kenya is therefore an exemplifying case for this phenomenon. Construction activity in Kenya fluctuates excessively and grows very slowly. This remains a big challenge to policy makers, developers, consultants and contractors in their decision-making processes. In this study, systems thinking was applied to investigate the problem of excessive fluctuations and stunted growth of construction output in Kenya. The study developed a system dynamics model to simulate the construction output problem behaviour. The historical behaviour of the construction industry was described using construction output data of a 40-year period - from 1964 to 2003. Line graphs of the historical data exhibited profiles that helped to identify the system archetypes operating in the industry. From the profiles, it was deduced that the problem of fluctuations and slow growth of construction output in Kenya is encapsulated in two system archetypes, namely: balancing process with a delay, and limits to growth. The relationship between construction output and its determinant factors from the constru ction industry's environment was investigated using time series regression, which involved autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regression and multiple regression modelling of the output. On the basis of the historical data analysis and the system archetypes identified, a system dynamics (SD) model was developed to replicate the problem of fluctuations and slow growth in the construction output. The data used to develop the system dynamics model was annual construction output in Kenya from 1964 to 2003. The model was then used: to appraise policy changes suggested by construction industry participants in Kenya, and to project construction output in Kenya from year 2004 to year 2050, in order to establish the expected future fluctuations and growth trends of the construction output. It was observed that three fundamental changes are necessary in the system structure of the construction industry of Kenya, in order to minimize fluctuations and foster growth in construction output in the country, in the long run. The changes are: setting long-term targets of annual construction output in the industry as a whole, incorporating reserve capacity in the production process, and expanding the system st ructure to capture a larger construction market. The study recommends regulation of the response of the construction industry of Kenya to changes in construction demand in the market, and expansion of the construction industry's market into the African region and beyond.
7
Yung, Christian Hung Shing. "The privatization process--a system dynamics model for Brazil." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1994. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/12086.
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Gozluklu, Burak. "A new project management system dynamics model and simulator." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/113517.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, System Design and Management Program, 2017.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 56-57).
Simulators generated from project management system dynamics models are exercised for training the future project managers. In today's' high dynamic, vibrant and complex markets, the models should incorporate more business dynamics and also provide more tools to the players who can flexibly steer in the project games. Along with that objective, this study brings new dynamics and modeling approach to the original multi-phase project system dynamics model of Ford and Sterman, 1998. The new dynamics include the development of new features in the market growing the customer expectation, reflection of customer expectation to project economics, supersede of project concurrencies by rushing the tasks, allowing the defects delivered to customers to be compensated by lifetime repair cost and free positioning of the phase schedules while maintaining concurrencies. A new formulation for completion putthrough, option to include final downstream defect correction and elaborate project econometrics are also included. The model is built in modules that can be utilized to increase the number of phases and/or explain the model to the trainees more easily. The project model employs two options; a zero-defect policy and allowed defect policy where the latter is newly introduced by the repair cost. The system dynamics model is tested by proposed extreme project manager traits which are implemented as table function to use one or more modules to pursue an ultimate objective within a certain logic. A construction project principally mimicking the cases provided by Parvan et al. 2015 is simulated with the manager traits. The results initiate interesting tradeoffs such as the influence of project delivery time versus repair cost, accepting new tasks versus creating more defects or rescheduling the project or positioning the workforce before the ramping up of testing and defective task correction activities. The model necessitates a deeper understanding and analyses of long-term phenomenon such as the lifetime repair cost, the financial consequences of defects and lifetime earnings of products as well as the continuous feature development in the market and its economic value. It is found that the current model proposes an enhanced tool for the training of future project managers. Keywords: System dynamics, project management, simulation, defect policy, numerical modeling.
by Burak Gozluklu.
S.M. in Engineering and Management
9
Quan, Chuanwen. "A system dynamics model for the development of China's air transportation system." Thesis, This resource online, 1996. http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-09182008-063445/.
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Grobbelaar, Sara Susanna. "R&D in the national system of innovation a system dynamics model /." Pretoria : [s.n.], 2006. http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-07212007-130132.
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11
Soddemann, Thomas. "Non-equilibrium molecular dynamics study of an amphiphilic model system." [S.l. : s.n.], 2001. http://ArchiMeD.uni-mainz.de/pub/2001/0015/diss.pdf.
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12
Neugebauer, Felix Sebastian. "Tayloring Brazil: a system dynamics model for monetary policy feedback." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/9098.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
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The thesis introduces a system dynamics Taylor rule model of new Keynesian nature for monetary policy feedback in Brazil. The nonlinear Taylor rule for interest rate changes con-siders gaps and dynamics of GDP growth and inflation. The model closely tracks the 2004 to 2011 business cycle and outlines the endogenous feedback between the real interest rate, GDP growth and inflation. The model identifies a high degree of endogenous feedback for monetary policy and inflation, while GDP growth remains highly exposed to exogenous eco-nomic conditions. The results also show that the majority of the monetary policy moves during the sample period was related to GDP growth, despite higher coefficients of inflation parameters in the Taylor rule. This observation challenges the intuition that inflation target-ing leads to a dominance of monetary policy moves with respect to inflation. Furthermore, the results suggest that backward looking price-setting with respect to GDP growth has been the dominant driver of inflation. Moreover, simulation exercises highlight the effects of the new BCB strategy initiated in August 2011 and also consider recession and inflation avoid-ance versions of the Taylor rule. In methodological terms, the Taylor rule model highlights the advantages of system dynamics with respect to nonlinear policies and to the stock-and-flow approach. In total, the strong historical fit and some counterintuitive observations of the Taylor rule model call for an application of the model to other economies.
13
Cao, Shiya. "Analysis of Household Water Filtration in China: A System Dynamics Model." Digital WPI, 2018. https://digitalcommons.wpi.edu/etd-theses/1268.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
As the economy has been growing fast in China, Chinese people have more incomes and then higher standard of living. In the case of household water treatment, more and more urban residents in China use bottled water or water filtration system instead of tap water because people start to worry about polluted tap water. According to a survey from China Water Supply Services Promotion Alliance in 2014, 59% of urban residents drinking water is from tap water (after being boiled), 41% from bottled water and water filtration system. The 41% participants prefer bottled water as the first choice over a water filtration system.
The comparative advantages and disadvantages of home water filtration system and bottled water are analyzed using comparative analysis. The reasons why home water filtration industry has grown slowly in urban China even though it is less expensive and has environmental benefits are analyzed using a system dynamics model. The model focuses on the physical system of home water filtration industry. The study shows that order delivery delay and service time are key factors to the adoption rate of home water filtration system. However, initial cost becomes a limiting factor to the growth of the market of home water filtration system. The study proposes the according market policy, demand policy, and supply policy to improve the current scenario.
14
Knoll, Karin L. (Karin Lynn). "A system dynamics model for the diffusion of a new technology." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1995. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/8957.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 1995.Includes bibliographical references (p. 193-194).
It is often difficult for companies producing new technologies to predict the acceptance pattern (or diffusion pattern) for the new technology in the marketplace. The expected diffusion pattern is important because it affects and is affected by the production, financial, sales and distribution strategies for the new technology, as well as decisions related to marketing and technical development. It is also useful if the projection of technology acceptance offers the firm insight into the factors that drive acceptance and the factors that contribute to rejection of the technology in the marketplace. This thesis develops a system dynamics model for the diffusion of a new medical technology. At the model's core is a general theory of medical technology emergence proposed by Dr. Jack Homer in his 1983 Ph.D. thesis entitled "A Dynamic Model for Analyzing the Emergence of New Medical Technologies." By parameterizing Dr. Homer's general system dynamics model to suit the new technology case, it is hoped that the model will give rise to a greater understanding of the factors relevant to diffusing the technology, as well as lead to more informed managerial decision making as progress is made with the technology.
by Karin L. Knoll.
S.M.
15
Ahn, Namsung 1955. "A system dynamics model of a large R&D program." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1999. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/9541.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Thesis (Ph.D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, 1999.Includes bibliographical references (leaf 122).
Organizations with large R&D activities must deal with a hierarchy of decision regarding resource allocation. At the highest level of allocation, the decision is related to the total allocation to R&D as some portion of revenue. The middle level of allocation deals with the allocation among phases of the R&D process. The lowest level of decisions relates to the resource allocation to specific projects within a specific phase. This study focuses on developing an R&D model to deal with the middle level of allocation, i.e., the allocation among phases of research such as basic research, development, and demonstration. The methodology used to develop the R&D model is System Dynamics. Our modeling concept is innovative in representing each phase of R&D as consisting of two parts: projects under way, and an inventory of successful but not-yet-exploited projects. In a simple world, this concept can yield an exact analytical solution for allocation of resources among phases. But in a real world, the concept should be improved by adding more complex structures with nonlinear behaviors. Two particular nonlinear feedbacks are incorporated into the R&D model. The probability of success for any specific project is assumed partly dependent upon resources allocated to the project. Further, the time required to reach a conclusion regarding the success or failure of a project is also assumed dependent upon the level of resources allocated. In addition, the number of successful projects partly depends on the inventory of potential ideas in the previous stage that can be exploited. This model can provide R&D management with insights into the effect of changing allocations to phases whether those changes are internally or externally driven. With this model, it is possible to study the effectiveness of management decisions in a continuous fashion. Managers can predict payoffs for a host of different policies. In addition, as new research results accumulate, a re-assessment of program goals can be implemented easily and allocations adjusted to enhance continuously the likelihood of success, and to optimize payoffs. Finally, this model can give managers a quantitative rationale for program evaluation and permit the quantitative assessment of various externally imposed changes.
by Namsung Ahn.
Ph.D.
16
Smith, Edwin L. "A system dynamics computer model for long-term water quality planning." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 1985. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/41562.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The objective of this study was to develop a comprehensive, basin-wide, water-quality-planning model using system dynamics methodology. Later, the model was to be interfaced with a more conventional system dynamics model: one simulating social, technological, economic, and political interactions. By doing so, it is envisioned that such management policies as zoning, abatement facilities, and best management practices may be simulated together.
Master of Science
17
Rupp, Matthew Y. "Passive dynamic steering system model for use in vehicle dynamics simulation." Connect to resource, 1994. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=osu1157568618.
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Reda, Hussein Murad Ali. "A theory for national industrial development presented in a system dynamics model." Diss., Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1985. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/76481.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The dissertation presents a system dynamics model for national industrial development in developing economies. A development system is defined by national boundary, components and activities. The system is represented by ten activity sectors grouped into three functional classes: (1) Two driving sectors comprising population and investment capital sectors; (2) Seven industrial sectors: resources, manufacturing, agriculture, physical infrastructure, services, technology, and social infrastructure; and (3) An outlet sector represented by a trade sector.
The model's general theory of industrial development dynamics is described by causal feedback loops. A causal feedback loop consists of two or more interrelated variables where a change in one of the loop's variables causes all others to change as well. The industrial development model's specific structure evolved by applying the causal feedback theory to the system activity sectors. The model is written in DYNAMO, a continuous system, computer simulation language.
A prototype model run illustrated the basic development process and possible effects of alternative policies. Several conclusions were drawn regarding sensitive system parameters and various development policies. In addition, three developing-country examples representing low, middle, and high income groups were evaluated. Recommendations about model use and system analysis were presented. The industrial development model is intended to aid during development analysis and planning phases.Ph. D.
19
Pfaender, Jens Holger. "Competitive Assessment of Aerospace Systems using System Dynamics." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/14014.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Aircraft design has recently experienced a trend away from performance centric design towards a more balanced approach with increased emphasis on engineering an economically successful system. This approach focuses on bringing forward a comprehensive economic and life-cycle cost analysis, which can be addressed by the introduction of a dynamic method allowing the analysis of the future attractiveness of such a concept in the presence of uncertainty. One way of addressing this is through the use of a competitive market model. However, existing market models do not focus on the dynamics of the market, which results in poor predictive capabilities.
The method proposed here focuses on a top-down approach that integrates a competitive model based on work in the field of system dynamics into the aircraft design process. The primary contribution is the demonstration of the feasibility of such integration. This integration is achieved through the use of surrogate models, which enabled not only the practical integration of analysis techniques, but also reduced the computational requirements so that interactive exploration as envisioned is actually possible. An example demonstration of this integration is built on the competition in the 250 seat large commercial aircraft market. Two aircraft models were calibrated to existing performance and certification data and then integrated into the system dynamics market model, which was then calibrated with historical market data. This calibration showed a much improved predictive capability as compared to the conventional logit regression models.
The resulting market model was then integrated into a prediction profiler environment with a time variant Monte-Carlo analysis resulting in a unique trade-off environment. This environment was shown to allow interactive trade-off between aircraft design decisions and economic considerations while allowing the exploration potential market success in the light of varying external market conditions and scenarios.
Another use of the existing outputs of the Monte-Carlo analysis was then realized by visualizing the model variables on a multivariate scatter plot. This enables the designer to define strategic market and return on investment goals for a number of scenarios and then directly see which specific aircraft designs meet these goals.
20
Beringer, Tim. "Earth system dynamics in the Anthropocen." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät II, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/16442.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
In nie dagewesener Größenordnung greift der Mensch durch die Verbrennung fossiler Energieträger und der weiträumigen Umgestaltung der Landoberfläche in die globale Umwelt ein. Klimawandel und Übernutzung natürlicher Ressourcen könnten schon in diesem Jahrhundert die Anpassungsfähigkeiten vieler ökologischer und sozialer Systeme übersteigen und somit zu Konflikten und politischer Destabilisierung führen. Vor diesem Hintergrund soll diese Studie zu einem besseren Verständnis der wichtigsten globalen Triebkräfte beitragen, die die Entwicklung der terrestrischen Biosphäre in diesem Jahrhundert prägen werden: Klimawandel und menschliche Landnutzung. Auf der Basis eines Dynamischen Globalen Vegetationsmodells werden im ersten Teil der vorliegenden Arbeit zwei große klimatische Störungen des globalen Kohlenstoffkreislaufs untersucht, die innerhalb der letzten drei Jahrzehnte beobachtet wurden. Im Fordergrund steht die Frage, wie sich die Veränderungen von Temperatur-, Niederschlags- und Strahlungsbedingungen auf pflanzliche Produktivität und Zersetzungsprozesse im Boden auswirkten. Es zeigt sich, dass vermehrte Kohlenstoffspeicherung in der Landbiosphäre den überwiegenden Teil der atmosphärischen CO2 Anomalien erklärt. Der zweite Teil dieser Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der weltweit steigenden Nachfrage nach Bioenergie, die aufgrund des flächenintensiven Anbaus von Biomasse zur wichtigsten Triebkraft für zukünftige Landnutzungsänderungen werden könnte. Aus der Kombination von Vegetationsmodellierung und räumlichen Datenanalysen werden globale Bioenergiepotentiale unter Berücksichtigung verschiedener Nachhaltigkeitsanforderungen bestimmt und mögliche ökologische Auswirkungen des großräumigen Anbaus von Energiepflanzen abgeschätzt. Im Jahr 2050 könnten demnach 15-25% des weltweiten Energiebedarfs durch Bioenergie abgedeckt werden. Dafür müssten allerdings natürliche Ökosysteme in großem Umfang in Agrarland umgewandelt werden.Human activities, primarily the combustion of fossil fuels and the global modification of the land surface, are transforming the Earth System at unprecedented scale. Climate change and the overexploitation of natural resources may soon overwhelm the adaptive capacities of many ecosystems and societies, which could lead to substantial losses in human well-being and political destabilization. In this context, it is the goal of this thesis to contribute to a better understanding of the most important global drivers that will determine the future of the land biosphere during this century: climate change and human land use. Based on a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM), the first part of this thesis examines two large climatic disturbances of the terrestrial carbon cycle that were observed during the last three decades. These analyses focus on the effects of changes in temperature, precipitation and radiation on plant productivity and soil decomposition. Results indicate that increased carbon storage in the land biosphere explains the most part of the atmospheric CO2 anomaly. The second part of this thesis addresses the worldwide increasing demand for bioenergy that may become the most important driver of future land use change due to the large area requirements of biomass cultivation. A combination of vegetation modeling and spatial data analyses is used to assess global bioenergy potentials that consider various sustainability requirements for food security, biodiversity protection and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and to evaluate the environmental impacts of large-scale energy crop cultivation. The results indicate that bioenergy may provide between 15 and 25% of the global energy demand in 2050. Exploiting these potentials, however, requires the conversion of large amounts of natural vegetation into agricultural land affecting a large number of ecosystems already fragmented and degraded by land use change.
21
Burtt, Kelly D. "Computational studies of photo-induces isomerization dynamics in a model molecular motor system." abstract and full text PDF (free order & download UNR users only), 2005. http://0-gateway.proquest.com.innopac.library.unr.edu/openurl?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:dissertation&res_dat=xri:pqdiss&rft_dat=xri:pqdiss:3209954.
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Finley, Allan Michael. "Application of system dynamics modeling techniques to an existing stream water quality model." Master's thesis, This resource online, 1991. http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-02162010-020040/.
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Brabant, Darlene A. "Extending the System Dynamics model of software project management to a multiproject environment." Thesis, Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1990. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/30679.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Approved for public release, distribution is unlimitedIncrease in the demand for software, coupled with concerns regarding cost overruns and schedule delays in software development lead experts to believe that the United States will be unable to produce the software it needs. In order to improve their performance, software professionals must first understand the development process. The System Dynamics model of software project management provided a tool for the understanding of a single project. This tool was expanded to model a multiproject environment in which more than one project is managed. Identification and addition of the variables necessary to reflect manpower decisions resulting in-movement between projects and within an organization were effected. This enhancement provided insights onto the allocation of resources to projects and into the optimization of the staffing function.
24
Byrnes, John M. (John Marshall). "A system dynamics model of a small R&D office : productivity enhancement." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1990. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/14265.
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Frazier, Donald P. "A Simulation Model of Large-Scale Software Reuse Implementations: A System Dynamics Approach." NSUWorks, 2004. http://nsuworks.nova.edu/gscis_etd/526.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Large-scale software reuse, such as SAP's R13 Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system, has the potential to significantly reduce system implementation timelines. However, most ERP projects fail to deliver on time and within budget. While each implementation faces unique challenges and differing requirements coverage, the management decision to build custom programs instead of reusing the provided software introduces additional risk and effort to an already complex undertaking. The goal of this research is to evaluate the use of an original system dynamics model, combined with a novel approach to function point calculations, as a means to accurately predict the Realization Phase duration of SAP implementations.
To achieve this goal, a new function point counting approach to SAP transactions was combined with the development of a system dynamics model that simulates the Realization Phase of SAP Projects. Both the function point approach and dynamic model proved effective in replicating and predicting the behavior and timelines of completed projects across multiple firms. The first firm, Project Alpha, served as the reference baseline for model calibration (MAE=.09 R2=1). Data from a second firm, Project Beta, proved the portability of the model across different organizations (MAE=.07, R2=.98). The model's predictive performance was then tested against the project duration of a third firm. Project Gamma. Using the data from Project Gamma, the model estimated a project duration of 127 days versus the actual 134 days. Given the current level of estimating accuracy within ERP implementations, this research offers significant improvement to professional practice. Finally, the relationship between reuse and productivity was demonstrated by varying the modeled amount of reuse over several simulation runs. Each simulation provided insight on the dynamic relationship between the amount of reuse and project duration.
26
Monga, Pavinder. "A System Dynamics Model of the Development of New Technologies for Ship Systems." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/35258.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
System Dynamics has been applied to various fields in the natural and social sciences. There still remain countless problems and issues where understanding is lacking and the dominant theories are event-oriented rather than dynamic in nature. One such research area is the application of the traditional systems engineering process in new technology development. The Navy has been experiencing large cost overruns in projects dealing with the implementation of new technologies on complex ship systems. We believe that there is a lack of understanding of the dynamic nature of the technology development process undertaken by aircraft-carrier builders and planners. Our research effort is to better understand the dynamics prevalent in the new technology development process and we use a dynamic modeling technique, namely, System Dynamics in our study.
We provide a comprehensive knowledge elicitation process in which members from the Newport News Shipbuilding, the Naval Sea Command Cost Estimating Group, and the Virginia Tech System Performance Laboratory take part in a group model building exercise. We build a System Dynamics model based on the information and data obtained from the experts. Our investigation of the dynamics yields two dominant behaviors that characterize the technology development process. These two dynamic behaviors are damped oscillation and goal seeking. Furthermore, we propose and investigate four dynamic hypotheses in the system. For the current structure of the model, we see that an increase in the complexity of new technologies leads to an increase in the total costs, whereas a increase in the technology maturity leads to a decrease in the total costs in the technology development process. Another interesting insight is that an increase in training leads to a decrease in total costs.
Master of Science
27
Damle, Pushkar Hari. "A system dynamics model of the integration of new technologies for ship systems." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/35216.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
System dynamics has been used to better understand the dynamics within complex natural and social systems. This understanding enables us to make decisions and define strategies that help to resolve the problematic behaviors associated within these systems. For example within an operating environment such as the US Navy, decisions taken today can have long lasting impact on system performance. The Navy has experienced large cost overruns during the new technology implementation process on ship systems that can also have an impact on total life cycle performance. The integration phase of the implementation process represents most of the cost overruns experienced in the overall new technology life cycle (development, integration, and operation/support/disposal). We have observed a general concern that there is a lack of understanding for the dynamic behavior of those processes which comprise the integration phase, among ship-builders and planners. One of the goals of our research effort has been to better understand the dynamic behavior of the new technology integration processes, using a dynamic modeling technique known as System Dynamics.
Our approach has also been to provide a comprehensive knowledge elicitation process in which members from the shipbuilding industry, the US Navy, and the Virginia Tech System Performance Laboratory take part in group model building exercises. The system dynamics model that is developed in this manner is based on data obtained from the experts. An investigation of these dynamics yields a dominant cost behavior that characterizes the technology integration processes. This behavior is S-shaped growth.
The following two dynamic hypotheses relative to lifecycle cost and performance of the inserted new technology were confirmed: (1) For the current structure of the model we observe the more the complexity of the new technology, the less affordable a technology becomes; (2) Integration of immature (less developed) technologies is associated with higher costs. Another interesting insight is that cost is very sensitive to the material procurement.
Future research can be addressed to a more detailed level of abstraction for various activities included in the technology integration phase, such as testing and evaluation, cost of rework and risks associated with inadequate testing etc. This will add to our evolving understanding of the behavior of individual activities in the technology integration process.Master of Science
28
Shin, Seung-il. "A system dynamics model for total-factor productivity measurement of the manufacturing system: its implications for JIT." Diss., Virginia Tech, 1991. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/39974.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This research provides a basis to explore the relationship between Just-In-Time (m) and
performance of the manufacturing system using a systems approach. Specifically, a
conceptual model that captures system-wide performance of the manufacturing system was
built using system dynamics in an effort to investigate the relationship betweenn JIT and
performance of the manufacturing system. The model was designed and built to measure
total-factor productivity (TFP) which represents a global performance measure of the
manufacturing system. TFP captures the integrated, synergistic effect of the system
variables and functions on global system performance.
A major part of the research was devoted to building and testing the system
dynamics model. The model consists of four sectors: production-inventory, labor,
machine, and material. The labor, machine, and material sectors represent the input classes
used to produce the finished goods. The production-inventory sector contains a variable
representing the finished goods (output of the system). It also contains the TFP variable
which relates all the input classes and the output, and calculates the TFP value simulated
under a specific system state.Ph. D.
29
Hicks, Dawn L. "Optimal design of digital model-following systems." Thesis, University of Salford, 1994. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.284423.
Повний текст джерела
30
Černý, Michal. "Systémový model řízení organizace." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2011. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-114298.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Necessary for the existence of every successful organization is achieving its objectives. In order to achieve these objectives, the organization must be properly managed. In today's rapidly changing times, one of the key areas of managerial work is also use various tools to support management and decisive actions. One of these tools include model development and subsequent implementation of the model simulations. Models provide the ability to experiment with various decisions, and thereby provide a basis for establishing appropriate policies and strategies. And these models properties can be used in the management of organizations. For creation of models exist many different approaches. One of these approaches is systems approach, which is including system dynamics. The task of this text was to establish a framework for the formation of systemic management model any organization that would help managers to improve management of the organization. To achieve this goals is necessary to develope general model of organization elements, describe their possible links and determine methodology of creating a system model of the organization.
31
Drobek, Marc. "Data-driven system dynamics modelling : model formulation and KPI prediction in data-rich environments." Thesis, Queen's University Belfast, 2017. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.725834.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
System Dynamics (SD) is a key methodology for analysing complex, highly non-linear feedback systems. The SD modelling procedure is traditionally based on domain expert knowledge, manual modelling tasks and a parameter estimation and equation formulation process. These tasks are, however, heavily manual and complex since the required information was not expected to be available from written and numerical data sources. In recent years, we have seen an explosion in monitored and tracked system data that became known as the Big Data paradigm shift. This change has not yet found its way into the SD domain. Within this thesis, a novel data-driven SD modelling methodology for data-rich environments is proposed to address this paradigm shift. The research work carried out in this thesis exptores the potential of utilising massively available data sources for the SD modelling process. Based on these data sources, a modelling methodology (Fexda) is presented that supports the SD modeller in a systematic fashion whilst preserving the key principles of SD modelling. Unlike the traditional SD modelling, Fexda as a data-driven approach is highly sensitive to changes in the given data, which enables a continuous evolution ana optimisation of the computed SD models ana their parameters and equations. These contributions are based on advances in other domains, such as econometric modelling, data mining and machine learning, which are incorporated in a novel way for Fexda. A detailed evaluation of the proposed Fexda methodology is further provided against a business use-case scenario to demonstrate technical feasibility of the approach and to provide comparative results with traditional approaches. The evaluation clearly shows that Fexda can be employed to produce reliable and accurate SD models and provide insightful simulation results. The proposed Fexda methodology is the ground work towards data-driven SD modelling. A range of potential future research directions are proposed to further strengthen Fexda. The thesis concludes by presenting a revised version of the traditional information sources model that caters the reality of the Big Data paradigm shift.
32
Jiang, Hong. "A System Dynamics Model for Manpower and Technology Implementation Trade-off and Cost Estimation." Doctoral diss., University of Central Florida, 2013. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETD/id/5795.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The U.S. Navy has been confronted with budget cuts and constraints during recent years. This reduction in budget compels the U.S. Navy to limit the number of manpower and personnel to control costs. Reducing the total ownership cost (TOC) has become a major topic of interest for the Navy as plans are made for current and future fleets. According to the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO, 2003), manpower is the most influential component of determining the life cycle cost of a ship. The vast majority of the TOC is comprised of operating and support (O&S) costs which account for approximately 65 percent of the TOC. Manpower and personnel costs account for approximately 50 percent of O&S costs. This research focused on tradeoff analysis and cost estimation between manpower and new technology implementation. Utilizing concepts from System Dynamics Modeling (SDM), System Dynamics Causal Loop diagrams (CLD) were built to identify major factors when implementing new technology, and then stocks and flows diagrams were developed to estimate manpower cost associated with new technology implementation. The SDM base model reflected an 18 months period for technology implementation, and then compared different technology implementation for different scenarios. This model had been tested by the public data from Department of the Navy (DoN) Budget estimates. The objective of this research was to develop a SDM to estimate manpower cost and technology tradeoff analysis associated with different technology implementations. This research will assist Navy decision makers and program managers when objectively considering the impacts of technology selection on manpower and associated TOC, and will provide managers with a better understanding of hidden costs associated with new technology adoption. Recommendations were made for future study in manpower cost estimation of ship systems. In future studies, one particular type of data should be located to test the model for a specific manpower configuration.Ph.D.
Doctorate
Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
Engineering and Computer Science
Modeling and Simulation; Engineering
33
Kurebayashi, Rintaro 1973. "A system dynamics model for analyzing bubble effects in the long distance telecom industry." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/17805.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Thesis (S.M.M.O.T.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Management of Technology Program, 2004.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 94-95).
This thesis focuses on analyses of the long distance telecom service industry in US market by a system dynamics model to analyze bubble effects. The bubble effects have not been fully analyzed from the structural perspectives, although a lot of articles and papers partially explain the bubble effect. In this thesis, the system dynamics model of capacity expansion process, pricing, demand, cost, and decision making for new fiber installation is constructed by investigating the industrial structure. The model was analyzed, key factors for the bubble were identified, and their impact on the dynamics was captured. Through the analysis, I found that the fiber glut occurred by the fact that a temporal demand soar induced by the emergence of the Internet technologies leaded the telecom service providers to estimate the future demand wrongly, and the error was amplified by the long planning horizon which is economically plausible policy for each provider. I also found that the revenue reduced in the late stage of the bubble since the competitiveness in the industry stimulated price war.
by Rintaro Kurebayashi.
S.M.M.O.T.
34
Seville, Donald A. (Donald Anthony). "Moving beyond "the model" : a framework for integrating system dynamics into organizational policy making." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1994. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/36341.
Повний текст джерела
35
Chen, Yao-Tsung, and 陳耀宗. "The Use of SDM-PRN Transformation for System Dynamics Model Construction and Policies Design." Thesis, 2001. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/93128432483979455713.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
博士國立中山大學
資訊管理學系研究所
89
This paper presents a model transformation between System Dynamics Model (SDM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to aid model construction and policy design. We first point out a similarity between a System Dynamics Model (SDM) and an artificial neural network, in which both store knowledge majorly in the structure (or linkages) of a model. Then, we design a method that can map a SDM to a special design Partial Recurrent Network (PRN), and prove in mathematics that they two operate under the same numerical propagation constraints. With the established foundation, we then showed that the SDM-PRN transformation could aid SDM construction in the following way: (1) start from an initial skeleton of a PRN model (mapping from an initial SDM), (2) incarnate its structure by learning and (3) convert it back to a corresponding SDM. This approach integrates the capability of neural network learning with a traditional process, which thus makes model construction more systematic and much easier for common people. In the same philosophy, the SDM-PRN transformation could also aid SD policy design. Since any PRN can learn some structures from a historical time series pattern, it can also learn a better structure from a better pattern set by designer. We have investigated the effectiveness and usefulness of two application of the SDM-PRN transformation described above and the results are satisfactory.
36
Chuang, Sua-hua, and 莊淑華. "Discussing the Mathematics theorem of System Dynamic by the transition between MM and SDM to help validating model." Thesis, 2009. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/kv2eww.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
碩士國立中山大學
資訊管理學系研究所
97
Mathematical model-building is one kind of mathematical thinking, which uses mathematical signs and methods to build a mathematical tool which can describe and solve practical problem. However, System Dynamic is to solve complicated non-linear dynamic problem. It uses the model-building software of diagram interface to make dynamic simulation. Behind the dynamic simulation is the calculation of a set of mathematical equation. The purpose of this research is , by the transition between Mathematics Model and System Dynamic Model, to discuss the mathematical principle of System Dynamic ,and to avoid distorting model and making the model validation harder due to the model-builder''s misusing function. Using the conclusion of the transition will help validating the model and raising the reliability and the efficiency of the model. From the conclusion of this research, we find out that System Dynamic is non-linear dynamic mathematical model. Both are exchangeable. From the transition, we also find that the graph function used in the process of System Dynamic model-building is a piecewise-linear- approximate function. The numerical value setting of the graph function can influence the system action. After the transition from System Dynamic model to mathematical model, we can use some other mathematical software to draw the phase-plane-plot or phase-portrait-plot. It will analyze clearly the system action in any situation, and validate the correction of model construction.
37
Lee, Meng-Tzung, and 李孟宗. "Discuss the Effect of Design Contract Interface by System Design Model（SDM）." Thesis, 2004. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/c9k8d2.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
碩士國立成功大學
工業設計學系碩博士班
92
This study intends to build a Design Contract Interface ( DCI ) based on System Design Model so as to accomplish all the tasks ( such as signing the design contract, communication of designing, contents of service, assignment of manpower, cost and acceptance, control of time schedule, etc.) efficiently. The advantages of DCI can help designers to proceed the design job and management in accordance with the contract and secure the signing of the design case can be fulfilled for the mutual benefit of both parties. A vehicle design case was used in this study to prove the effect of DCI. Through the priority of various functional principles and its cost and control of time schedule, it was proved that DCI could be of great help to the designers to accomplish all kinds of design cases smoothly. Except the design work, designers often forget the importance of design contracts. Design contracts are usually used for designers to keep away from kinds of problems during the designing process, for example: the dispute about the quality of the design, the fees, the effect of the design contract, and the understanding on work items and time. These problems should be solved first. Of course, not every problem can be covered. However, a well-done case should be with a complete contract in order to make sure that everything goes well when designing. By the design contract interface which is used on cases creating, designers can sign a contract with factory owners. This is to manage cases going. It can solve six problems by signing contracts with the design contract interface: design contracts signing, design communicating, service, manpower disposing, fees and checking, and time controlling. The design contract is with efficacy and bases from the laws because it is notarize by the local court. This design contract interface project based on the study by SDM (problem decision, design analyzing, system switch, products developing, and levels of value) is created for vehicles mainly. And it is analyzed the effect by evaluating standers and time. This way can provide assistance for designers to have more complete cases to carry out by the design contract interface.
38
Chiu, Te-Fong, and 邱得豐. "Construct business model by system dynamics research." Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/10221621867133833128.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
碩士國立臺北大學
企業管理學系
101
The “Business Model” began to be widely used and spread in the 1990s, the simplest way to describe business model is in what way the organization to make money. For the business administration researchers and corporate managers, business model provides three functions: learning, development, and implementation. However, the business model does not have a recognized accepted definition, caused confusion to use the business model for the managers. Therefore requires an appropriate tool, to simply describe the concept that business model want to communicate. System dynamics is a method proposed by Professor Jay W. Forrester in 1956, the main concept is to think in a macro point of view, to solve the problem, to avoid thinking of the micro point of view and limited fragment. System dynamics use the basic concept of the stock and flow, plus auxiliary variables and relationships linking, develop a set of tools used to simulate the operation of the system. It’s simple image expression, very suitable to describe the business model concept. This research study the literature of business model, system dynamics, value chain and innovation, critical success factor and performance indicators, chain restaurant industry in Taiwan, industrial personal computer industry in Taiwan, and instrument manufacturing industry in Taiwan, define the business model is a frame of revenue flow, logistics flow, value flow, and information flow. Use system dynamics to develop the business model of chain restaurant industry, industrial personal computer industry, and instrument manufacturing industry. Sum up a general value chain business model, and a development process to construct a business model by system dynamics. This research contribution, in the business administration academic, is confirmed the ability to explain business model using by system dynamics, and summed up a development process of constructing business model by system dynamics. The contribution in business practices is confirmed the system dynamics model can simulate the operation of the enterprise, and the simulation results provide as a reference for decision making. Subsequent research can use system dynamics base on the generalized model of this paper to a variety industry for business models research.
39
Liu, Fuping. "A system dynamics model for hydropower generation planning." 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/1993/2643.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The objective of this research is to investigate the application of the system dynamics approach to Manitoba Hydro's hydropower generation planning. The modeling processes focused on four main areas: hydraulic sector, electric power generation sector, transmission, and the economic sector. The models developed in this research can be used to: (1) determine the initial water storage of Lake Winnipeg to generate maximum or near maximum revenue for Manitoba Hydro, using Model A; (2) determine the control water level target of Lake Winnipeg to generate maximum or near maximum revenues for Manitoba Hydro, using Model B; (3) determine how much water to release via Manitoba Hydro's generating system from Lake Winnipeg in a manner that ensures the production of maximum or near maximum revenues for the utility, using Models A and B combined, (4) analyze the relationships between generating capacity, load development, and transmission system capacity. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)
40
YI-ChenChen and 陳怡禎. "A System Dynamics Diffusion Model for Solar Energy." Thesis, 2010. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/86108415484795986606.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
碩士國立成功大學
工業與資訊管理學系碩博士班
98
Due to the gradual depletion of fossil energy storage, the energy price is rising rapidly. Also Kyoto Protocol Agreement cut on the emission, the global energy industry has a dramatic change in recent years. In contrast, renewable energy has the advantages of clean, lower greenhouse emissions and self-production; many countries are devoted to the R＆D of Renewable energy. Because of the production technique of Renewable energy is still not at mature level, the investment of developing Renewable energy need to be reevaluated. However, recent years, the solar energy industry is one of the high potential renewable energy can be developed. By incentive policy, it can encourage consumers use cost-benefit assessment to reevaluate the benefit of solar energy, and achieve the goal of popularize the solar energy market. The Diffusion model is often depicted on the new technological changes. This study used system dynamics as the research methods and tools which is good at dealing with complex dynamic systems and to feedback control theory, attempts to build a FIT policy for the installation of solar domestic consumers and business customers the dynamic model. This study focus on the policy of the solar installation solar system related to changes in the proliferation of speed to simulate different system elements of the system behaviors.Solar energy industry has been quite successful in German. After German government passed “Renewable Energy Law” in 2004, it provides financial subsidy to solar energy, which also caused the huge growth of solar industry. This study use fit policy as the basic to build a system dynamics model, and try to experiment and improve the model to provide policy-makers a strategic thinking under the financial incentives.
41
Yue-Tarng, You, and 游玉堂. "System Dynamics Model of Combined Arms Land Combat." Thesis, 2012. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/74244262943310969637.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
博士國防大學理工學院
國防科學研究所
100
The purpose of this dissertation is to develop an original model with operational potential resulting from the lethality of weapons to fully describe a combined arms land battle. First, by reviewing literature and studying modern operational simulation systems, this dissertation identifies the problems in defence quantitative analysis. Next, this dissertation develops a lethality coefficient that is able to consider the lethality of weapons. Third, this dissertation improves Lanchester mixed forces equations and then associates them with system dynamics to develop a precise and extensive combined arms land battle model. This dissertation then extends the model to AirLand battles described by three dimensional operations. Fourth, the developed models are verified using model validity tests to assess whether they approximate real systems. Finally, by simulating with some tactics scenarios, the developed model is able to fully describe the behaviour in modern combined arms land battles and reflect the synergy resulted from the interaction of strategies and force redeployment. Moreover, the human-based interface of the proposed model makes it easy for the user to model other scenarios. This dissertation also confirms the problems related to the use of combat reserve and the assignment of attack helicopter forces confused in real systems and provides new insight to enable a commander to make decisions by quantitative analysis in order to strengthen the confidence and quality of decision making.
42
Jung, Shuen-Bin, and 鍾舜濱. "a system dynamics study for consignment stock model." Thesis, 2011. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/64878963745073706265.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
碩士逢甲大學
工業工程與系統管理學研究所
99
Many inventory approaches are applied to supply chain models. The consignment stock (CS) is one of popular inventory policies in supply chain networks of outsourcing or e-commerce. Most literatures focus on the implementation frameworks and the settings of maximum and minimum inventory stock levels. The aims of this paper are to study the adaptability and sensitivity of CS in the outsourcing-type supply chain. This study develops a system dynamics model to simulate many hypothetical situations. Impacts of system performance due to the uncertainty of demands, length of lead times, and level of stock-settings are studied via simulation results. Suggested strategies are then constructed based on the study results. These provide CS managers as implementation references.
43
Sontamino, Phongpat. "Decision support system of coal mine planning using system dynamics model." Doctoral thesis, 2014. https://tubaf.qucosa.de/id/qucosa%3A22960.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Coal is a fossil fuel mineral, which is presently a major source of electricity and energy to industries. From past to present, there are many coal reserves around the world and large scale coal mining operates in various areas such as the USA, Russia, China, Australia, India, and Germany, etc. Thailand’s coal resources can be found in many areas; there are lignite mining in the north of Thailand, the currently operational Mae Moh Lignite Mine, and also coal reserves in the south of Thailand, such as Krabi and Songkhla, where mines are not yet operating. The main consumption of coal is in electricity production, which increases annually. In 2019, the Thai Government and Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) plans to run a 800 MW coal power plant at Krabi, which may run on imported coal, despite there being reserves of lignite at Krabi; the use of domestic coal is a last option because of social and environmental concerns about the effects of coal mining. There is a modern trend in mining projects, the responsibility of mining should cover not only the mining activity, but the social and environmental protection and mine closure activities which follow. Thus, the costs and decisions taken on by the mining company are increasingly complicated.
To reach a decision on investment in a mining project is not easy; it is a complex process in which all variables are connected. Particularly, the responsibility of coal mining companies to society and the environment is a new topic. Thus, a tool to help to recognize and generate information for decision making is in demand and very important. In this thesis, the system dynamics model of coal mine planning is made by using Vensim Software and specifically designed to encompass many variables during the period of mining activity until the mine closure period. The decisions use economic criteria such as Net Present Value (NPV), Net Cash Flow (NCF), Payback Period (PP), and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), etc.
Consequently, the development of the decision support system of coal mine planning as a tool is proposed. The model structure covers the coal mining area from mine reserves to mine closure. It is a fast and flexible tool to perform sensitivity analysis, and to determine an optimum solution. The model results are clear and easily understandable on whether to accept or reject the coal mine project, which helps coal mining companies make the right decisions on their policies, economics, and the planning of new coal mining projects.
Furthermore, the model is used to analyse the case study of the Krabi coal-fired power plant in Thailand, which may possibly use the domestic lignite at Krabi. The scenario simulations clearly show some potential for the use of the domestic lignite. However, the detailed analysis of the Krabi Lignite Mine Project case shows the high possible risks of this project, and that this project is currently not feasible. Thus, the model helps to understand and confirm that the use of domestic lignite in Krabi for the Krabi Coal Power Plant Project is not suitable at this time. Therefore, the best choice is imported coal from other countries for supporting the Krabi Coal Power Plant Project.
Finally, this tool successfully is a portable application software, which does not need to be installed on a computer, but can run directly in a folder of the existing application. Furthermore, it supports all versions of Windows OS.
44
Huang, Yi Ming, and 黃毅銘. "Applying System Dynamics to Construct Military Capability Assessment Model." Thesis, 2008. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/46868857151872731909.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
碩士國防管理學院
國防決策科學研究所
96
Abstract The military development across Taiwan Strait is a system under complicated environment. It is a fact that the budget in national defense listed by China has been increasing and its military strength had led to an imbalanced situation across the Strait. This paper aims at discussing the gap of military strength constructed by and between Taiwan and China. How can we develop our military force and eliminate the imbalance shown in the military strength in a macro view under the realistic situation reflected across the Strait? Our budget policy in national defense is planned to maintain at 3% of GDP. Without considering the budget in national defense cast by China, can we effectively decrease the gap shown in military forces? Therefore, the core problem explored by this study lies in discussing the balance of military forces between Taiwan and China in a macro view and by systematic thinking and establishing a model for calculating military forces. Meanwhile, this study also focuses on the differences in military strength and discusses the legitimacy of the budget policies in national defense at the moment. This study applied system dynamics. Quantitative and qualitative models were established through systematic thinking. The “interactive models of military forces across the Strait” were established for analyzing the outcome and impacts arising from the imbalance of military forces between Taiwan and China. In this study, two hypotheses were proposed against military strategies across the Strait: (1) the quota devoted in national defense economies was positively and significantly related to military forces; and (2) China and Taiwan establish their military forces based on the military strength developed by the other. It is found that the time point with the occurrence of imbalance of military forces was in 2005 discussed from the systematic view. Currently, the military strength in Taiwan is 18 years lagging behind that in China. Based on “Presumed Analysis on Budget Policies”, this study found that the budget in national defense in Taiwan accounted relatively low if it was maintained at 3% of GDP while the budget in national defense in China was increasing. Consequently, the imbalance of military strength between Taiwan and China would get more obvious. An increase of the budget in national defense may be properly considered from a systematic point of view, which will effectively decrease the gap and imbalance of military strength across the Strait.
45
Guo, Nai-Wen, and 郭乃文. "A Study of Computer Simulation Utilizing System Dynamics Model." Thesis, 1994. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/68770574016807607582.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
碩士淡江大學
資訊工程研究所
82
The purpose of this study is to propose a modified algorithm for converting signed digraph to Forrester Diagram(FD) utilizing in system dynamics and a new approach for directly dealing with FD.At first,some important basic concepts( definitions,theorems and the steps of analyzing problems)are introduced.Next,the conversion method of signed digraph to FD, Burns algorithm and the Ramos modification on Burns algorithm are presented.A modi- fied algorithm and a new approach for manipulating FD are pro- posed.Conclusions and suggestions are given in the last. Burns algorithm and Ramos modified algorithm neglect the ele- ments of delays and multipliers which can often affect the result of system.In this study,signed digraph is converted to FD more completely and reasonably by adding the judgement of information delays.material delays and multipliers. Definitions and axioms are newly explained,the steps of algorithm are discussed in detail,and an illustrative example is given to verify the result. The past studies focus more attention on manipulation of causal diagram,but neglect the characteristic of system dy- namics which may be vary from time to time.Whenever FD has been completed,it will not easy to add or delete elements and cou- plings.In this study we present a new approach which make us can directly deal with FD by defining FD with attributed graphs. The operations over an FD and corresponding productions,and three algorithms are proposed to perform the work.An illu- strative example is given to show application result.
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Chou, Chia-Jung, and 周佳蓉. "A System Dynamics Model of Inventory Management In Hospital." Thesis, 2007. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/98537067837257687132.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
碩士義守大學
管理研究所碩士班
95
In recent years, national health insurance has been resulted a manifested impact on medical industry. Due to the practice of health insurance laws, the medical institutions have great difficulties in making reasonable profits. Therefore, the decision-makers of medical institutions tend to implement strategies to economize operation costs. The medical industry is a high-technology and massive employment industry. In particular, there is high difficulty in reducing the variable cost resulting from manpower. As a result, decision makers of medical institutions take great interest in the medical inventory management. In the one hand, the excessive stock will store up the stock cost; on the other hand, the insufficient stock will interrupt the medical treatment service and influence the medical treatment behavior. Therefore, the medical inventory management is considered the key target in medical institution management. The system dynamics can resolve the complicated system problems with multiple causes and effects and interrelationship. And it can find out the key mesh of cause and effect from the causal relationship with complicated various variables. Because the inventory management of the medical institutions is a complex and dynamic problems, it makes sense to apply the system thinking of system dynamics methodology to find the best strategy and approach for medical inventory management. . The study suggests characteristics of medical inventory management, and therefore proposes a three-role model i.e. the health insurance payment system, safety inventory and purchase. In other words, the medical inventory management is influenced by the interaction between the three roles and therefore the whole system behavior.
47
HUNGPENG, TENG, and 彭登宏. "A System Dynamics Diffusion Model for White Light LED." Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/74466003084040089591.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
碩士國立成功大學
工業與資訊管理學系專班
101
Energy saving, environmental protection and safety of white LED, the emphasis on energy conservation and the prevention of global warming and other issues in the world, has become the new light source for the 21st century. LED bulbs save 40% energy than traditional bulbs at least, if the full replacement of the LED light source, and year on planet Earth can save $ 146 billion in energy costs, as well as a reduction of 600 million to 3 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions. The Japanese Government hope to achieve the purpose of energy saving white LED lighting products since the beginning of 1998 21st Century Light Project, as well as within the U.S. Department of Energy White Paper planning since 2000 to promote national semiconductor lighting research project. In this study, combined with the impact variables that specializes in dynamic and complex system with white LED lighting and feedback control theory-based system dynamics as the research methods and tools, and Bass diffusion model as the theoretical basis. Japanese white LED lighting development pace of the global leader in the evolution of the Japanese white LED lighting market is the focus of attention of the global industry. In this study, Japan, as the object of the simulation and analysis of Japan, white LED lighting market in the relevant laws and policy, energy conservation subsidy program for the proliferation of the entire market analysis and forecast to enter the market peak of the white lighting market in 2013, 2016 after the market will begin to face shrinking, LED lighting is bound to start another wave of industrial structure and product range of adjustment, expect this to provide policy makers and industrial development of a strategic thinking.
48
Almashaqbeh, Sahar, J. Eduardo Munive-Hernandez, and M. Khurshid Khan. "A System Dynamics Model for Supply Chain Risk Assessment." 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10454/17047.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
NoRisk assessment is a strategic approach for building resilient supply chains in different types of industries, including the energy sector. In case of an important event with a high level of the risk happening, it could jeopardize the operations of an organization. This could even interrupt the delivery of a product or service, damaging the profitability and reputation of the organization. This could also have a long-term effect on the strategic performance of the firm. Furthermore, key risks might be linked through causal interrelationships. Given the nature of a dynamic business environment, risk assessment also needs to consider the effect of time on those risks. Hence, it is important to understand the behaviour of a complex and dynamic system of interrelated risks to improve strategic decision making in the energy sector. This paper presents a System Dynamics model to assess risks with a supply chain perspective for power plants. The risk assessment model was validated with a case study of three power plants in the Middle East. The developed risk assessment model allowed to understand the long-term effect of risk on three performance indicators: availability of the power plant, efficiency, and operational and maintenance costs. The model provides a different approach to traditional risk assessment by proposing a dynamic modelling methodology.
49
El, Halabi Ezzat. "A System Dynamics Model of Automotive Recycling in Australia." Phd thesis, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/164194.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Automotive or End of Life Vehicle (ELV) recycling in Australia is a profit-driven activity undertaken by automotive dismantlers without the oversight of explicit government policy. Among the growing concerns are the environmental impact of the activity and the failure of the industry to implement a voluntary code of practice. An underlying problem clouding these concerns is the literature gaps concerning the operations of the industry, the issues facing the industry, and how these issues could be overcome. This research reports on a series of studies undertaken to address these knowledge gaps by applying System Dynamics (SD) as an investigative approach.
Semi-structured stakeholder interviews are conducted to gather quantitative and qualitative data about business operations and material flows. An adapted Qualitative Data Analysis method is used to extract the essential variables and causal links thematically. An aerial survey of recyclers premises and two ELV dismantling trials are also conducted to collect data for variables in the simulation SD model. Furthermore, a Scenarios Planning workshop, including two print surveys, is facilitated to validate the scoping of the problem and model areas and to determine plausible scenarios facing the industry and their effects.
This research identifies the sustainability of the industry as an overarching problem, with the financial performance affecting and determined by five areas of concern:
i) ELV supply/demand and disposal,
ii) workforce,
iii) premises,
iv) parts sales, and
v) industry image.
The research also identifies two major growing threats to the industry. The first threat is an increasing unfair competition from backyarders at the ELV supply level. This issue is weakening the industry financial performance and overall industry image while increasing the overall environmental impact of the dismantling activity. The second threat lies with the automobile increasingly becoming a throw-away product, catalysed by the motorists and insurance industry preference for new instead of used parts for repairs. This growing trend threatens the demand for parts reuse and the business case for the industry.
The simulation results support a nationally harmonised and enforced licensing policy with requirements for proper handling of ELVs as leverage to help improve the overall industry image and financial performance, despite the added compliance costs. The policy obliterates the unfair competition by encouraging the backyarders to either fold operations or become licensed operators. The overall environmental impact of automotive dismantling decreases significantly. A longer use cycle for the automobile and the promotion parts reuse could also enhance these metrics further.
A secondary finding is a forward integration business strategy, to help improve the financial performance and reduce the environmental impact, using a multi-dismantling machine to break apart ELVs into broad material categories.
50
Grobbelaar, Sara Susanna (Saartjie). "R&D in the national system of innovation : a system dynamics model." Thesis, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/26471.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
There exist some concern regarding the sustainability of the production of R&D output and R&D capacity in South Africa. Recent trends indicated evidence of disinvestments and decay of South Africa’s R&D capacity. Questions arise concerning the detrimental effects these trends could have on South Africa’s ability to generate R&D output. As problems are addressed insufficiently and the system is allowed to decay, the costs of rebuilding the system might increase even further. The main research of objective of this thesis is to develop a computer simulation program of R&D performance and the creation of R&D output in the NSI. This model will in turn produce a tool to be used for policy testing, what-if scenario testing or policy optimisation. The purpose of the model is to simulate R&D output generated in the South African system of innovation and to model and explain the effect the presence/lack of long-term investment in R&D and R&D resources could have on the system’s ability to produce R&D output. In developing this model and by using the corresponding simulation programme, decision-makers in government and industry are provided with a tool to analyse policy alternatives. The model will provide a better understanding of the interrelationships between different elements of the NSI, in particular those interacting as funders and performers of R&D. This model will also aid decision makers in enhancing the efficiency of addressing problem areas within the South African R&D system. The contribution made by this thesis to the body of knowledge is that the development of a system dynamic model will result in the establishment of a dynamic hypothesis of the development of new knowledge through R&D in an R&D performing sector. The dynamic hypothesis will in turn lead to a method for modelling the effect of R&D investment on the development of an R&D capacity, i.e. the system’s ability to absorbed knowledge and produce R&D output. The above is essentially a dynamic description of the process around creating and absorbing knowledge through R&D activities.Thesis (PhD (Engineering Management))--University of Pretoria, 2007.
Graduate School of Technology Management (GSTM)
PhD
Unrestricted