Статті в журналах з теми "Storm and flood events"
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1
Dougherty, Erin, and Kristen L. Rasmussen. "Climatology of Flood-Producing Storms and Their Associated Rainfall Characteristics in the United States." Monthly Weather Review 147, no. 11 (October 10, 2019): 3861–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-19-0020.1.
Анотація:
Abstract Floods are one of the deadliest weather-related natural disasters in the continental United States (CONUS). Given that rainfall intensity and the amount of CONUS population exposed to floods is expected to increase in the future, it is critical to understand flood characteristics across the CONUS. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to develop a flood-producing storm climatology over the CONUS from 2002 to 2013 to better understand rainfall characteristics of these storms and spatiotemporal differences across the country. Flood reports from the NCEI Storm Events Database are grouped by causative meteorological event and are merged with a database of stream-gauge-indicated floods to provide a robust indication of significant hydrologic events with a meteorological linkage. High-resolution Stage IV rainfall data were matched to 5559 flood episodes across the CONUS to identify rainfall characteristics of flood-producing storms in a variety of environments. This storm climatology indicates that flash flood–producing storms frequently occur with high rainfall accumulations in the summer east of the Rockies. Slow-rise flood-producing storms frequently occur in the spring–early summer (winter), with high rainfall accumulations over the northern and central CONUS (Pacific Northwest) due to rain-on-snowmelt, synoptic systems, and mesoscale convective systems (atmospheric rivers). Hybrid flood-producing storms, sharing characteristics of flash and slow-rise floods, frequently occur in spring–summer and have high rainfall accumulations in the central CONUS, Northeast, and mid-Atlantic. Results from this climatology may provide useful for emergency managers, city planners, and policy makers seeking efforts to protect their communities against risks associated with flood-producing storms.
2
Yang, Long, James Smith, Mary Lynn Baeck, and Efrat Morin. "Flash Flooding in Arid/Semiarid Regions: Climatological Analyses of Flood-Producing Storms in Central Arizona during the North American Monsoon." Journal of Hydrometeorology 20, no. 7 (July 1, 2019): 1449–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-19-0016.1.
Анотація:
Abstract Flash flooding in the arid/semiarid southwestern United States is frequently associated with convective rainfall during the North American monsoon. In this study, we examine flood-producing storms in central Arizona based on analyses of dense rain gauge observations and stream gauging records as well as North American Regional Reanalysis fields. Our storm catalog consists of 102 storm events during the period of 1988–2014. Synoptic conditions for flood-producing storms are characterized based on principal component analyses. Four dominant synoptic modes are identified, with the first two modes explaining approximately 50% of the variance of the 500-hPa geopotential height. The transitional synoptic pattern from the North American monsoon regime to midlatitude systems is a critical large-scale feature for extreme rainfall and flooding in central Arizona. Contrasting spatial rainfall organizations and storm environment under the four synoptic modes highlights the role of interactions among synoptic conditions, mesoscale processes, and complex terrains in determining space–time variability of convective activities and flash flood hazards in central Arizona. We characterize structure and evolution properties of flood-producing storms based on storm tracking algorithms and 3D radar reflectivity. Fast-moving storm elements can be important ingredients for flash floods in the arid/semiarid southwestern United States. Contrasting storm properties for cloudburst storms highlight the wide spectrum of convective intensities for extreme rain rates in the arid/semiarid southwestern United States and exhibit comparable vertical structures to their counterparts in the eastern United States.
3
Warburton, J., and C. R. Fenn. "Unusual flood events from an Alpine glacier: observations and deductions on generating mechanisms." Journal of Glaciology 40, no. 134 (1994): 176–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0022143000003956.
Анотація:
AbstractObservations are presented on a particularly unusual sequence of flood events witnessed at Bas Glacier d’Arolla, Switzerland, in July 1987. The sequence was triggered by heavy rain storms, and involved a supraglacial “overflow event” (water cascading from moulins over the snout of the glacier) succeeded, following a series of “mini-floods”, by a subglacial “outburst event”. Available hydrological and geomorphological data are used to assess the significance of the floods and to deduce likely explanations for each phase of the flood-event sequence. Bottom-up surcharging of a poorly developed subglacial drainage system is the preferred explanation for the overflow event. The subglacial outburst is explained as an extreme “spring event”. Hydraulic jacking is implicated, but not proven, during both events. Whilst the flood sequence was triggered by an intense storm, englacially stored waters are believed to have contributed most of the flood waters.
4
Warburton, J., and C. R. Fenn. "Unusual flood events from an Alpine glacier: observations and deductions on generating mechanisms." Journal of Glaciology 40, no. 134 (1994): 176–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/s0022143000003956.
Анотація:
AbstractObservations are presented on a particularly unusual sequence of flood events witnessed at Bas Glacier d’Arolla, Switzerland, in July 1987. The sequence was triggered by heavy rain storms, and involved a supraglacial “overflow event” (water cascading from moulins over the snout of the glacier) succeeded, following a series of “mini-floods”, by a subglacial “outburst event”. Available hydrological and geomorphological data are used to assess the significance of the floods and to deduce likely explanations for each phase of the flood-event sequence. Bottom-up surcharging of a poorly developed subglacial drainage system is the preferred explanation for the overflow event. The subglacial outburst is explained as an extreme “spring event”. Hydraulic jacking is implicated, but not proven, during both events. Whilst the flood sequence was triggered by an intense storm, englacially stored waters are believed to have contributed most of the flood waters.
5
Fu, Chao-chen, Jia-hong Liu, Hao Wang, Chen-yao Xiang, Xiao-ran Fu, and Qing-hua Luan. "Urban Storm Flooding: Characteristics and Management in Beijing." MATEC Web of Conferences 246 (2018): 01042. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201824601042.
Анотація:
Beijing is located on the North China Plain with five rivers, which belong to the Hai River Basin. Its continental monsoon climate with uneven precipitation distribution is extreme likely lead to serious urban flood disasters. According to the disaster results, urban storm flood in Beijing can be classified into four types. Here typical extreme storm flood events and their characteristics in Beijing were analyzed in detail. It showed that storm flood events in recently decades had a trend, which centered in a relatively small area with high intensity and short duration. The main reasons of urban storm flood disaster were urbanization and basic facilities with low flood and drainage standard. Urbanization means land utilization significantly altering hydraulic processes, and extreme storm can easily exceed those facilities capacity. In order to deal with urban storm flood, Beijing government have taken four measurements, which were upgrading and reconstruction of rainwater pumping stations, improving projects of small and medium rivers, building sponge city, and implementing the West Suburb Storm-water Regulation Project. In addition, the flood warning and emergency management system has been established. Furthermore, some measurements were pointed to be done in the future, including improvement of the flood control management system, improvement of flood control plans, strengthening flood warning system, and strengthening social management and public awareness of flood prevention. With these improvements of management and engineering measurements, it can be more secure under intensive storms in Beijing. These experiences of flood control in Beijing can provide references for other cities.
6
Meslard, Florian, Yann Balouin, Nicolas Robin, and François Bourrin. "Assessing the Role of Extreme Mediterranean Events on Coastal River Outlet Dynamics." Water 14, no. 16 (August 9, 2022): 2463. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w14162463.
Анотація:
River mouths are highly dynamic environments responding very rapidly to changes in wave energy or river floods. While the morphological response during floods or during marine storm events has been widely documented in the literature, little is known about the mechanisms acting during the co-occurrence of fluvial and marine hazards. This concomitance of river flood and marine storm is quite common in the western Mediterranean Sea, and was the case for the Gloria event, considered to be the most extreme event in recent decades. During this event, monitoring of hydrodynamics and morphological evolution was implemented, making it possible to better understand the impact of concomitant marine storm and fluvial flood during an extreme meteorological event on spit breaching of a small Mediterranean river mouth. Monitoring using a combination of high-resolution hydrodynamic measurements, topographic and bathymetric surveys, and sediment cores was used before, during, and after the storm “Gloria”. The results suggest an amplification of the morphological impact of the events and a different morphogenic response than if each of the events had acted independently on the system. The marine storm, occurring first, weakened the spit and initiated its breaching, which was continued by the extreme fluvial flood, thus leading to the complete destruction of the mouth. The destruction of the spit acted as a sediment source for subaqueous large delta deposition amounting to 50% of the total volume. The contribution of the river, estimated at 30%, was quite low for an exceptional event, showing the importance of locating rainfall in a catchment area controlled by a dam. For this event, extreme morphological evolution was observed, as well as the importance of water levels in the river mouth, which probably increased flood hazards, demonstrating the importance of including the compounding effect of extreme coastal water levels in river flood risk management.
7
Johnson, E. S. "ASSESSING FLOOD IMPACTS IN RURAL COASTAL COMMUNITIES USING LIDAR." ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences XLI-B8 (June 24, 2016): 1135–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-xli-b8-1135-2016.
Анотація:
Coastal communities are vulnerable to floods from storm events which are further exacerbated by storm surges. Additionally, coastal towns provide specific challenges during flood events as many coastal communities are peninsular and vulnerable to inundation of road access points. Publicly available lidar data has been used to model areas of inundation and resulting flood impacts on road networks. However, these models may overestimate areas that are inaccessible as they rely on publicly available Digital Terrain Models. Through incorporation of Digital Surface Models to estimate bridge height, a more accurate model of flood impacts on rural coastal residents can be estimated.
8
Johnson, E. S. "ASSESSING FLOOD IMPACTS IN RURAL COASTAL COMMUNITIES USING LIDAR." ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences XLI-B8 (June 24, 2016): 1135–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprsarchives-xli-b8-1135-2016.
Анотація:
Coastal communities are vulnerable to floods from storm events which are further exacerbated by storm surges. Additionally, coastal towns provide specific challenges during flood events as many coastal communities are peninsular and vulnerable to inundation of road access points. Publicly available lidar data has been used to model areas of inundation and resulting flood impacts on road networks. However, these models may overestimate areas that are inaccessible as they rely on publicly available Digital Terrain Models. Through incorporation of Digital Surface Models to estimate bridge height, a more accurate model of flood impacts on rural coastal residents can be estimated.
9
Iliadis, Christos, Vassilis Glenis, and Chris Kilsby. "Cloud Modelling of Property-Level Flood Exposure in Megacities." Water 15, no. 19 (September 27, 2023): 3395. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w15193395.
Анотація:
Surface water flood risk is projected to increase worldwide due to the growth of cities as well as the frequency of extreme rainfall events. Flood risk modelling at high resolution in megacities is now feasible due to the advent of high spatial resolution terrain data, fast and accurate hydrodynamic models, and the power of cloud computing platforms. Analysing the flood exposure of urban features in these cities during multiple storm events is essential to understanding flood risk for insurance and planning and ultimately for designing resilient solutions. This study focuses on London, UK, a sprawling megacity that has experienced damaging floods in the last few years. The analysis highlights the key role of accurate digital terrain models (DTMs) in hydrodynamic models. Flood exposure at individual building level is evaluated using the outputs from the CityCAT model driven by a range of design storms of different magnitudes, including validation with observations of a real storm event that hit London on the 12 July 2021. Overall, a novel demonstration is presented of how cloud-based flood modelling can be used to inform exposure insurance and flood resilience in cities of any size worldwide, and a specification is presented of what datasets are needed to achieve this aim.
10
de Kraker, A. M. J. "Flooding in river mouths: human caused or natural events? Five centuries of flooding events in the SW Netherlands, 1500–2000." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 19, no. 6 (June 9, 2015): 2673–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2673-2015.
Анотація:
Abstract. This paper looks into flood events of the past 500 years in the SW Netherlands, addressing the issue of what kind of flooding events have occurred and which ones have mainly natural causes and which ones are predominantly human induced. The flood events are classified into two major categories: (a) flood events that were caused during storm surges and (b) flood events which happened during warfare. From both categories a selection of flood events has been made. Each flood event is discussed in terms of time, location, extent of the flooded area and specific conditions. Among these conditions, specific weather circumstances and how long they lasted, the highest water levels reached and dike maintenance are discussed as far as flood events caused during storm surges are concerned. Flood events during warfare as both offensive and defensive strategies are relevant; the paper demonstrates that although the strategic flood events obviously were man-made, the natural feature, being the use of fresh water or sea water, of these events also played a major role. Flood events caused during storm surge may have an obvious natural cause, but the extent of the flooding and damage it caused was largely determined by man.
11
Zhu, Zhenglei, Wei Zhang, and Wenjin Zhu. "Compound Impact of Storm Surge and Flood Characteristics in Coastal Area Based on Copula." Water 16, no. 2 (January 12, 2024): 270. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w16020270.
Анотація:
In low-lying coastal areas, the interplay of various factors including precipitation, river flow, and storm surge can lead to greater influence on floods when they occur simultaneously. The copula method was used in this study to investigate the bivariate flood risk of compounding storm surge and river discharge events in the Pearl River Delta (PRD). Our results indicate that while the correlation between storm surge and flood peak (S-Q) was weak, there was a strong dependence between the pairs of storm surge–flood volume (S-V) and storm surge–flood duration (S-D). For these three pairs, the Clayton copula was the optimal function for S-Q, while the Frank copula was the optimal function for S-V and S-D, respectively. When the flood volume exceeds 2.0 × 104 m3/s and the flood duration is more than 10 days, the bivariate hydrologic risk for S-V and S-D is observed to decrease rapidly. Furthermore, the failure probability (FP) would be underestimated when the combined impact of river flow and storm surge is ignored in coastal flood risk assessment. Such bivariate hydrologic risk analysis implies that when determining design values in coastal flood risk assessment, the combined impact of river flow and storm surge should be taken into account.
12
GebreEgziabher, Merhawi, and Yonas Demissie. "Modeling Urban Flood Inundation and Recession Impacted by Manholes." Water 12, no. 4 (April 18, 2020): 1160. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12041160.
Анотація:
Urban flooding, caused by unusually intense rainfall and failure of storm water drainage, has become more frequent and severe in many cities around the world. Most of the earlier studies focused on overland flooding caused by intense rainfall, with little attention given to floods caused by failures of the drainage system. However, the drainage system contributions to flood vulnerability have increased over time as they aged and became inadequate to handle the design floods. Adaption of the drainages for such vulnerability requires a quantitative assessment of their contribution to flood levels and spatial extent during and after flooding events. Here, we couple the one-dimensional Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) to a new flood inundation and recession model (namely FIRM) to characterize the spatial extent and depth of manhole flooding and recession. The manhole overflow from the SWMM model and a fine-resolution elevation map are applied as inputs in FIRM to delineate the spatial extent and depth of flooding during and aftermath of a storm event. The model is tested for two manhole flooding events in the City of Edmonds in Washington, USA. Our two case studies show reasonable match between the observed and modeled flood spatial extents and highlight the importance of considering manholes in urban flood simulations.
13
Hallin, Caroline, Jacobus L. A. Hofstede, Grit Martinez, Jürgen Jensen, Nina Baron, Thorsten Heimann, Aart Kroon, et al. "A Comparative Study of the Effects of the 1872 Storm and Coastal Flood Risk Management in Denmark, Germany, and Sweden." Water 13, no. 12 (June 18, 2021): 1697. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w13121697.
Анотація:
From November 12th to 13th in 1872, an extreme coastal flood event occurred in the south Baltic Sea. An unusual combination of winds created a storm surge reaching up to 3.5 m above mean sea level, which is more than a meter higher than all other observations over the past 200 years. On the Danish, German, and Swedish coasts, about 300 people lost their lives. The consequences of the storm in Denmark and Germany were more severe than in Sweden, with significantly larger destruction and higher numbers of casualties. In Denmark and Germany, the 1872 storm has been more extensively documented and remembered and still influences local and regional risk awareness. A comparative study indicates that the collective memory of the 1872 storm is related to the background knowledge about floods, the damage extent, and the response to the storm. Flood marks and dikes help to remember the events. In general, coastal flood defence is to the largest degree implemented in the affected areas in Germany, followed by Denmark, and is almost absent in Sweden, corresponding to the extent of the collective memory of the 1872 storm. Within the affected countries, there is local variability of flood risk awareness associated with the collective memory of the storm. Also, the economic dependency on flood-prone areas and conflicting interests with the tourism industry have influence on flood protection decisions. The processes of climate change adaptation and implementation of the EU Floods Directive are slowly removing these differences in flood risk management approaches.
14
Dougherty, Erin, and Kristen L. Rasmussen. "Changes in Future Flash Flood–Producing Storms in the United States." Journal of Hydrometeorology 21, no. 10 (October 1, 2020): 2221–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-20-0014.1.
Анотація:
AbstractFlash floods are high-impact events that can result in massive destruction, such as the May 2010 flash floods in the south-central United States that resulted in over $2 billion of damage. While floods in the current climate are already destructive, future flood risk is projected to increase based on work using global climate models. However, global climate models struggle to resolve precipitation structure, intensity, and duration, which motivated the use of convection-permitting climate models that more accurately depict these precipitation processes on a regional scale due to explicit representation of convection. These high-resolution convection-permitting simulations have been used to examine future changes to rainfall, but not explicitly floods. This study aims to fill this gap by examining future changes to rainfall characteristics and runoff in flash flood–producing storms over the United States using convection-permitting models under a pseudo–global warming framework. Flash flood accumulated rainfall increases on average by 21% over the United States in a future climate. Storm-generated runoff increases by 50% on average, suggesting increased runoff efficiency in future flash flood–producing storms. In addition to changes in nonmeteorological factors, which were not explored in this study, increased future runoff is possible due to the 7.5% K−1 increase in future hourly maximum rain rates. Though this median change in rain rates is consistent with Clausius–Clapeyron theory, some storms exhibit increased future rain rates well above this, likely associated with storm dynamics. Overall, results suggest that U.S. cities might need to prepare for more intense flash flood–producing storms in a future climate.
15
Li, Yan, and Chunlu Liu. "A GIS-BASED PROCEDURE FOR MEASURING THE EFECTS OF THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT ON URBAN FLASH FLOODS." Journal of Green Building 11, no. 3 (June 2016): 110–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.3992/jgb.11.3.110.1.
Анотація:
Urban flooding has been a severe problem for many cities around the world as it remains one of the greatest threats to the property and safety of human communities. In Australia, it is seen as the most expensive natural hazard. However, urban areas that are impervious to rainwater have been sharply increasing owing to booming construction activities and rapid urbanisation. The change in the built environment may cause more frequent and longer duration of flooding in floodprone urban regions. Thus, the flood inundation issue associated with the effects of land uses needs to be explored and developed. This research constructs a framework for modelling urban flood inundation. Different rainfall events are then designed for examining the impact on flash floods generated by land-use changes. Measurement is formulated for changes of topographical features over a real time series. Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies are then utilised to visualise the effects of land-use changes on flood inundation under different types of storms. Based on a community-based case study, the results reveal that the built environment leads to varying degrees of aggravation of urban flash floods with different storm events and a few rainwater storage units may slightly mitigate flooding extents under different storm conditions. Hence, it is recommended that the outcomes of this study could be applied to flood assessment measures for urban development and the attained results could be utilised in government planning to raise awareness of flood hazard.
16
Marjerison, Rebecca D., M. Todd Walter, Patrick J. Sullivan, and Stephen J. Colucci. "Does Population Affect the Location of Flash Flood Reports?" Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 55, no. 9 (September 2016): 1953–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-15-0329.1.
Анотація:
AbstractFlash floods cause more fatalities than any other weather-related natural hazard and cause significant damage to property and infrastructure. It is important to understand the underlying processes that lead to these infrequent but high-consequence events. Accurately determining the locations of flash flood events can be difficult, which impedes comprehensive research of the phenomena. While some flash floods can be detected by automated means (e.g., streamflow gauges), flash floods (and other severe weather events) are generally based on human observations and may not reflect the actual distribution of event locations. The Storm Data–Storm Events Database, which is produced from National Weather Service reports, was used to locate reported flash floods within the forecast area of the Binghamton, New York, Weather Forecast Office between 2007 and 2013. The distribution of those reports was analyzed as a function of environmental variables associated with flood generation including slope, impervious area, soil saturated hydraulic conductivity ksat, representative rainfall intensity, and representative rainfall depth, as well as human population. A spatial conditional autoregressive model was used to test the hypothesis that flash flood reports are made more frequently in areas with higher populations, even when other flood-generating processes are considered. Slope, soil saturated hydraulic conductivity, and impervious area are significant predictors of flash flood reports. When population is added as a predictor, the model is similarly robust, but impervious area and ksat are no longer significant predictors. These results may challenge the assumption that flash flood reports are strongly biased by population.
17
Ilic, Aleksandra, Jasna Plavsic, and Dragan Radivojevic. "Rainfall-runoff simulation for design flood estimation in small river catchments." Facta universitatis - series: Architecture and Civil Engineering 16, no. 1 (2018): 29–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/fuace160923003i.
Анотація:
This paper presents development and application of the model aimed at simulating peak flood runoff from the small river basin Obnica in Serbia (having an area of 185 km2) with an aim to estimate design floods using different approaches. The model is developed using the HEC-HMS software (The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Hydrologic Centre?s Hydrologic Modelling System). The model is calibrated against eight events with observed hydrographs and corresponding rainfall, and verified with a separate set of events. Flood hydrographs are simulated with the constant intensity design storms of various durations and with the 24-hour design storm with design hyetograph determined using the alternating block method. All design floods obtained from the simulated hydrograph peaks are compared with the design floods estimated by statistical analysis of annual maximum flows. The results have shown that the temporally distributed 24-hour storms yield the design floods that are the closest to the statistically derived design flows, while the constant intensity storms cannot reproduce the statistically derived design flows.
18
Gad, Fragkiska-Karmela, Maria Chatzinaki, Dimitris Vandarakis, Chara Kyriakidou, and Vasilios Kapsimalis. "Assessment of Wave Storm-Induced Flood Vulnerability in Rhodes Island, Greece." Water 12, no. 11 (October 23, 2020): 2978. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12112978.
Анотація:
Coastal areas are threatened by extreme meteorological phenomena, such as wave storms. Therefore, the analysis of such events, such as providing information for their potential hazards assessment, is a key element in coastal management. In this study, a preliminary assessment of flood vulnerability due to storms was performed in Rhodes Island, Greece. Firstly, storm events were defined in terms of significant wave height, peak period, and duration, and they were grouped by means of cluster analysis into five classes (from weak to extreme) reflecting the intensity of each event. Subsequently, flood hazard was assessed by using an empirical formula for wave run-up calculations on cross-shore profiles and storm surge data at the region. Finally, a Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) was used for assessing vulnerability according to a scale from very low to very high. The most intense storms were found to occur in the eastern, southeastern, and southern part of the island. More than 60% of storms were classified as weak, while extreme events were found to occur with a frequency of less than 2.5%. Regarding flood hazard and vulnerability, the maximum values of wave run-up were calculated in the southeastern region, but the most vulnerable part was found to be the northwestern region, as the FVI was assessed as very high for weak and extreme events.
19
Le Gal, Marine, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Enrico Duo, Juan Montes Perez, Paulo Cabrita, Paola Souto Ceccon, Véra Gastal, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli. "A new European coastal flood database for low–medium intensity events." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 23, no. 11 (November 23, 2023): 3585–602. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023.
Анотація:
Abstract. Coastal flooding is recognized as one of the most devastating natural disasters, resulting in significant economic losses. Therefore, hazard assessment is crucial to support preparedness and response to such disasters. Toward this, flood map databases and catalogues are essential for the analysis of flood scenarios, and furthermore they can be integrated into disaster risk reduction studies. In this study and in the context of the European Coastal Flood Awareness System (ECFAS) project (GA 101004211), which aimed to propose the European Copernicus Coastal Flood Awareness System, a catalogue of flood maps was produced. The flood maps were generated from flood models developed with LISFLOOD-FP for defined coastal sectors along the entire European coastline. For each coastal sector, 15 synthetic scenarios were defined focusing on high-frequency events specific to the local area. These scenarios were constructed based on three distinct storm durations and five different total-water-level (TWL) peaks incorporating tide, mean sea level, surge and wave setup components. The flood model method was extensively validated against 12 test cases for which observed data were collated using satellite-derived flood maps and in situ flood markers. Half of the test cases represented well the flooding with hit scores higher than 80 %. The synthetic-scenario approach was assessed by comparing flood maps from real events and their closest identified scenarios, producing a good agreement and global skill scores higher than 70 %. Using the catalogue, flood scenarios across Europe were assessed, and the biggest flooding occurred in well-known low-lying areas. In addition, different sensitivities to the increase in the duration and TWL peak were noted. The storm duration impacts a few limited flood-prone areas such as the Dutch coast, for which the flooded area increases more than twice between 12 and 36 h storm scenarios. The influence of the TWL peak is more global, especially along the Mediterranean coast, for which the relative difference between a 2- and 20-year return period storm is around 80 %. Finally, at a European scale, the expansion of flood areas in relation to increases in TWL peaks demonstrated both positive and negative correlations with the presence of urban and wetland areas, respectively. This observation supports the concept of storm flood mitigation by wetlands.
20
Zhao, Yifei, Xinqing Zou, Jianhua Gao, and Chenglong Wang. "Recent sedimentary record of storms and floods within the estuarine-inner shelf region of the East China Sea." Holocene 27, no. 3 (July 28, 2016): 439–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0959683616660165.
Анотація:
Although extreme weather events make a strong impact in shallow marine sedimentary environments, there is still a paucity of past records for the Holocene period. Estuarine-inner shelf mud regions deposited from rivers that transport a large amount of suspended sediment represent an important archive of the Holocene. Two cores (S5-2 and JC07) retrieved from the estuarine-inner shelf regions of the East China Sea provided an opportunity to use sensitive grain size and 210Pb dating to reconstruct a history of extreme weather events in the Yangtze River basin. Here, we show that the average sedimentation rates of the two cores, S5-2 (1930–2013) and JC07 (1910–2013), were estimated to be 3.11 and 1.56 cm/yr, respectively. The results indicated that sediment supply played an important role in sedimentation of the estuarine-inner shelf mud region of the East China Sea. Sand content strongly increased in the late 1980s, a result of downstream riverbed erosion of the Yangtze River and submerged deltas. The grain size versus the standard deviation method was used to identify grain-size intervals with the highest variability along a sedimentary sequence. The Yangtze estuary mud area coarse population correlated well with historical literature on Yangtze River floods since AD 1930. Extreme storm events corresponded well with historical literature on the Zhe-Min mud region of the East China Sea. The spectral analyses of the sample core coastal population demonstrated that flood and storm events were consistent with a ~3–8 a periodic change of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), suggesting that the flood events usually follow ENSO years in the Yangtze River. Consequently, sediment records preserved in the two cores demonstrated different sedimentary responses to Yangtze River floods and storms, which is important to recover centennial scale flood events, to infer extreme precipitation, and to understand climate change in the estuarine-inner shelf of the East China Sea. Nevertheless, more efforts are still needed to simulate paleo-flood and predict future flood events in the context of global warming.
21
Smith, James A., Andrew J. Miller, Mary Lynn Baeck, Peter A. Nelson, Gary T. Fisher, and Katherine L. Meierdiercks. "Extraordinary Flood Response of a Small Urban Watershed to Short-Duration Convective Rainfall." Journal of Hydrometeorology 6, no. 5 (October 1, 2005): 599–617. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jhm426.1.
Анотація:
Abstract The 9.1 km2 Moores Run watershed in Baltimore, Maryland, experiences floods with unit discharge peaks exceeding 1 m3 s−1 km−2 12 times yr−1, on average. Few, if any, drainage basins in the continental United States have a higher frequency. A thunderstorm system on 13 June 2003 produced the record flood peak (13.2 m3 s−1 km−2) during the 6-yr stream gauging record of Moores Run. In this paper, the hydrometeorology, hydrology, and hydraulics of extreme floods in Moores Run are examined through analyses of the 13 June 2003 storm and flood, as well as other major storm and flood events during the 2000–03 time period. The 13 June 2003 flood, like most floods in Moores Run, was produced by an organized system of thunderstorms. Analyses of the 13 June 2003 storm, which are based on volume scan reflectivity observations from the Sterling, Virginia, WSR-88D radar, are used to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of flash flood producing rainfall. Hydrology of flood response in Moores Run is characterized by highly efficient concentration of runoff through the storm drain network and relatively low runoff ratios. A detailed survey of high-water marks for the 13 June 2003 flood is used, in combination with analyses based on a 2D, depth-averaged open channel flow model (TELEMAC 2D) to examine hydraulics of the 13 June 2003 flood. Hydraulic analyses are used to examine peak discharge estimates for the 13 June flood peak, propagation of flood waves in the Moores Run channel, and 2D flow features associated with channel and floodplain geometry.
22
Umer, Y., V. Jetten, J. Ettema, and L. Lombardo. "Application of the WRF model rainfall product for the localized flood hazard modeling in a data-scarce environment." Natural Hazards 111, no. 2 (January 1, 2022): 1813–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05117-6.
Анотація:
AbstractUrban flood hazard model needs rainfall with high spatial and temporal resolutions for flood hazard analysis to better simulate flood dynamics in complex urban environments. However, in many developing countries, such high-quality data are scarce. Data that exist are also spatially biased toward airports and urban areas in general, where these locations may not represent flood-prone areas. One way to gain insight into the rainfall data and its spatial patterns is through numerical weather prediction models. As their performance improves, these might serve as alternative rainfall data sources for producing optimal design storms required for flood hazard modeling in data-scarce areas. To gain such insight, we developed Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) design storms based on the spatial distribution of high-intensity rainfall events simulated at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Firstly, three known storm events (i.e., 25 June 2012, 13 April 2016, and 16 April 2016) that caused the flood hazard in the study area are simulated using the WRF model. Secondly, the potential gridcell events that are able to trigger the localized flood hazard in the catchment are selected and translated to the WRF design storm form using a quantile expression. Finally, three different WRF design storms per event are constructed: Lower, median, and upper quantiles. The results are compared with the design storms of 2- and 10-year return periods constructed based on the alternating-block method to evaluate differences from a flood hazard assessment point of view. The method is tested in the case of Kampala city, Uganda. The comparison of the design storms indicates that the WRF model design storms properties are in good agreement with the alternating-block design storms. Mainly, the differences between the produced flood characteristics (e.g., hydrographs and the number of flood gird cells) when using WRF lower quantiles (WRFLs) versus 2-year and WRF upper quantiles (WRFUs) versus 10-year alternating-block storms are very minimal. The calculated aggregated performance statistics (F scores) for the simulated flood extent of WRF design storms benchmarked with the alternating-block storms also produced a higher score of 0.9 for both WRF lower quantiles versus 2-year and WRF upper quantile versus 10-year alternating-block storm. The result suggested that the WRF design storms can be considered an added value for flood hazard assessment as they are closer to real systems causing rainfall. However, more research is needed on which area can be considered as a representative area in the catchment. The result has practical application for flood risk assessment, which is the core of integrated flood management.
23
Gabriel-Martin, Sordo-Ward, Garrote, and García. "Dependence Between Extreme Rainfall Events and the Seasonality and Bivariate Properties of Floods. A Continuous Distributed Physically-Based Approach." Water 11, no. 9 (September 11, 2019): 1896. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w11091896.
Анотація:
This paper focuses on proposing the minimum number of storms necessary to derive the extreme flood hydrographs accurately through event-based modelling. To do so, we analyzed the results obtained by coupling a continuous stochastic weather generator (the Advanced WEather GENerator) with a continuous distributed physically-based hydrological model (the TIN-based real-time integrated basin simulator), and by simulating 5000 years of hourly flow at the basin outlet. We modelled the outflows in a basin named Peacheater Creek located in Oklahoma, USA. Afterwards, we separated the independent rainfall events within the 5000 years of hourly weather forcing, and obtained the flood event associated to each storm from the continuous hourly flow. We ranked all the rainfall events within each year according to three criteria: Total depth, maximum intensity, and total duration. Finally, we compared the flood events obtained from the continuous simulation to those considering the N highest storm events per year according to the three criteria and by focusing on four different aspects: Magnitude and recurrence of the maximum annual peak-flow and volume, seasonality of floods, dependence among maximum peak-flows and volumes, and bivariate return periods. The main results are: (a) Considering the five largest total depth storms per year generates the maximum annual peak-flow and volume, with a probability of 94% and 99%, respectively and, for return periods higher than 50 years, the probability increases to 99% in both cases; (b) considering the five largest total depth storms per year the seasonality of flood is reproduced with an error of less than 4% and (c) bivariate properties between the peak-flow and volume are preserved, with an error on the estimation of the copula fitted of less than 2%.
24
ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire, Zhengzheng Zhou, Long Yang, Shuguang Liu, and James Smith. "The role of storm scale, position and movement in controlling urban flood response." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22, no. 1 (January 18, 2018): 417–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-417-2018.
Анотація:
Abstract. The impact of spatial and temporal variability of rainfall on hydrological response remains poorly understood, in particular in urban catchments due to their strong variability in land use, a high degree of imperviousness and the presence of stormwater infrastructure. In this study, we analyze the effect of storm scale, position and movement in relation to basin scale and flow-path network structure on urban hydrological response. A catalog of 279 peak events was extracted from a high-quality observational dataset covering 15 years of flow observations and radar rainfall data for five (semi)urbanized basins ranging from 7.0 to 111.1 km2 in size. Results showed that the largest peak flows in the event catalog were associated with storm core scales exceeding basin scale, for all except the largest basin. Spatial scale of flood-producing storm events in the smaller basins fell into two groups: storms of large spatial scales exceeding basin size or small, concentrated events, with storm core much smaller than basin size. For the majority of events, spatial rainfall variability was strongly smoothed by the flow-path network, increasingly so for larger basin size. Correlation analysis showed that position of the storm in relation to the flow-path network was significantly correlated with peak flow in the smallest and in the two more urbanized basins. Analysis of storm movement relative to the flow-path network showed that direction of storm movement, upstream or downstream relative to the flow-path network, had little influence on hydrological response. Slow-moving storms tend to be associated with higher peak flows and longer lag times. Unexpectedly, position of the storm relative to impervious cover within the basins had little effect on flow peaks. These findings show the importance of observation-based analysis in validating and improving our understanding of interactions between the spatial distribution of rainfall and catchment variability.
25
Humphrey, Charles, Guy Iverson, Caitlin Skibiel, Christa Sanderford, and Jamil Blackmon. "Geochemistry of Flood Waters from the Tar River, North Carolina Associated with Hurricane Matthew." Resources 8, no. 1 (March 6, 2019): 48. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/resources8010048.
Анотація:
Hurricane Matthew caused flooding in Eastern North Carolina that was categorized as a one in 500-year frequency event. Matthew was the second such event in less than 20 years, following Hurricane Floyd in 1999. The frequency of intense storms is projected to increase for many coastal areas, including North Carolina, because of climate change. The goal of this study was to gain a better insight into the geochemistry of flood waters associated with major flood events. Water samples (n = 22) from the Tar River in Greenville, North Carolina were collected over a two-week period after Matthew moved across the state. Results show that total Kjeldahl nitrogen, dissolved organic carbon, phosphate, and Escherichia coli concentrations and exports were significantly (p < 0.05) higher when the river was above flood stage relative to below. Isotopic analyses of δ15N and δ18O in NO3 in flood waters suggest that wastewater, possibly from sanitary sewer and confined animal feeding operation overflows, was the major source of nitrate associated with flood waters. Regulatory efforts to reduce nutrient loading to coastal waters may be complicated by contributions associated with intense storm events, given that such storms are becoming more frequent.
26
Sharif, Hatim O., David Yates, Rita Roberts, and Cynthia Mueller. "The Use of an Automated Nowcasting System to Forecast Flash Floods in an Urban Watershed." Journal of Hydrometeorology 7, no. 1 (February 1, 2006): 190–202. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jhm482.1.
Анотація:
Abstract Flash flooding represents a significant hazard to human safety and a threat to property. Simulation and prediction of floods in complex urban settings requires high-resolution precipitation estimates and distributed hydrologic modeling. The need for reliable flash flood forecasting has increased in recent years, especially in urban communities, because of the high costs associated with flood occurrences. Several storm nowcast systems use radar to provide quantitative precipitation forecasts that can potentially afford great benefits to flood warning and short-term forecasting in urban settings. In this paper, the potential benefits of high-resolution weather radar data, physically based distributed hydrologic modeling, and quantitative precipitation nowcasting for urban hydrology and flash flood prediction were demonstrated by forcing a physically based distributed hydrologic model with precipitation forecasts made by a convective storm nowcast system to predict flash floods in a small, highly urbanized catchment in Denver, Colorado. Two rainfall events on 5 and 8 July 2001 in the Harvard Gulch watershed are presented that correspond to times during which the storm nowcast system was operated. Results clearly indicate that high-resolution radar-rainfall estimates and advanced nowcasting can potentially lead to improvements in flood warning and forecasting in urban watersheds, even for short-lived events on small catchments. At lead times of 70 min before the occurrence of peak discharge, forecast accuracies of approximately 17% in peak discharge and 10 min in peak timing were achieved for a 10 km2 highly urbanized catchment.
27
Wilkinson, Mark E., and James C. Bathurst. "A multi-scale nested experiment for understanding flood wave generation across four orders of magnitude of catchment area." Hydrology Research 49, no. 3 (November 21, 2017): 597–615. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/nh.2017.070.
Анотація:
Abstract Current understanding of flood response is deficient concerning the variation of flood generation at different spatial scales as a function of spatial and temporal variations in storm rainfall. This study therefore investigates the relationship between rainfall spatial variability and flood response through a multi-scale nested experiment. Hydrological data from an extensive network in the Eden catchment, UK, were collected for a range of flood events over varying scales from 1.1 km2 to 2,286 km2. The data were analysed to show the spatial scale dependency of flood peak and lag time. Peak specific discharge for winter events appears to remain constant with area up to 20–30 km2, corresponding to the main upland headwater catchments, thereafter declining as area increases. The flood response to the convective storms depends on the location of the rainfall and the downstream rates of change of runoff and peak discharge can vary significantly from the winter storm relationships. Particularly for large synoptic storms, average scaling laws for peak discharge have been quantified (exponents ranging between 0.75 and 0.86), illustrating the non-linear nature of the cross-scale variations. Such laws provide a means of linking the headwater catchments with the larger scale at which planners and decision-makers operate.
28
Jia, Shaofeng, Yuanyuan Li, Aifeng Lü, Wenhua Liu, Wenbin Zhu, Jiabao Yan, Yuan Liang, Xiaozhi Xiang, and Zilong Guan. "City storm-flood events in China, 1984–2015." International Journal of Water Resources Development 35, no. 4 (October 5, 2018): 605–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2018.1513830.
29
Horsburgh, Kevin, Ivan D. Haigh, Jane Williams, Michela De Dominicis, Judith Wolf, Addina Inayatillah, and David Byrne. "“Grey swan” storm surges pose a greater coastal flood hazard than climate change." Ocean Dynamics 71, no. 6-7 (May 7, 2021): 715–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10236-021-01453-0.
Анотація:
AbstractIn this paper, we show that over the next few decades, the natural variability of mid-latitude storm systems is likely to be a more important driver of coastal extreme sea levels than either mean sea level rise or climatically induced changes to storminess. Due to their episodic nature, the variability of local sea level response, and our short observational record, understanding the natural variability of storm surges is at least as important as understanding projected long-term mean sea level changes due to global warming. Using the December 2013 North Atlantic Storm Xaver as a baseline, we used a meteorological forecast modification tool to create “grey swan” events, whilst maintaining key physical properties of the storm system. Here we define “grey swan” to mean an event which is expected on the grounds of natural variability but is not within the observational record. For each of these synthesised storm events, we simulated storm tides and waves in the North Sea using hydrodynamic models that are routinely used in operational forecasting systems. The grey swan storms produced storm surges that were consistently higher than those experienced during the December 2013 event at all analysed tide gauge locations along the UK east coast. The additional storm surge elevations obtained in our simulations are comparable to high-end projected mean sea level rises for the year 2100 for the European coastline. Our results indicate strongly that mid-latitude storms, capable of generating more extreme storm surges and waves than ever observed, are likely due to natural variability. We confirmed previous observations that more extreme storm surges in semi-enclosed basins can be caused by slowing down the speed of movement of the storm, and we provide a novel explanation in terms of slower storm propagation allowing the dynamical response to approach equilibrium. We did not find any significant changes to maximum wave heights at the coast, with changes largely confined to deeper water. Many other regions of the world experience storm surges driven by mid-latitude weather systems. Our approach could therefore be adopted more widely to identify physically plausible, low probability, potentially catastrophic coastal flood events and to assist with major incident planning.
30
Šaur, David, and Juan Carlos Beltrán-Prieto. "Algorithm of conversion of meteorological model parameters." MATEC Web of Conferences 292 (2019): 01032. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201929201032.
Анотація:
This article is focused on the forecasting severe storms with the Algorithm of Storm Prediction as a new forecasting tool for the prediction of the convective precipitation, severe storm phenomena and the risk of flash floods. The first chapter contains information about two applications on which basis are computed forecast ouptuts of this algorithm. Further, this chapter is also objected on more detailed descripition of the second application known as the Algorithm of conversion of meteorological model parameters . Predictive outputs generated by this algorithm are verified on 63 storm events, which is occurred in the territory of the Zlín Region in 2015-2017. The results chapter solves the comparison of the success rate of the manually and computed-processed outputs calculated in the Algorithm of Storm Prediction. Primarily, these outputs will be used for increasing efectivity of preventive measures against flash floods not only by the Fire Rescue Service, but also by flood authorities and crisis management bodies.
31
Ruiz-Villanueva, V., M. Borga, D. Zoccatelli, L. Marchi, E. Gaume, and U. Ehret. "Extreme flood response to short-duration convective rainfall in South-West Germany." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 16, no. 5 (May 31, 2012): 1543–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1543-2012.
Анотація:
Abstract. The 2 June 2008 flood-producing storm on the Starzel river basin in South-West Germany is examined as a prototype for organized convective systems that dominate the upper tail of the precipitation frequency distribution and are likely responsible for the flash flood peaks in Central Europe. The availability of high-resolution rainfall estimates from radar observations and a rain gauge network, together with indirect peak discharge estimates from a detailed post-event survey, provided the opportunity to study in detail the hydrometeorological and hydrological mechanisms associated with this extreme storm and the ensuing flood. Radar-derived rainfall, streamgauge data and indirect estimates of peak discharges are used along with a distributed hydrologic model to reconstruct hydrographs at multiple locations. Observations and model results are combined to examine two main questions, (i) assessment of the distribution of the runoff ratio for the 2008 flash flood and how it compares with other less severe floods; and (ii) analysis of how the spatial and temporal distribution of the extreme rainfall, and more specifically storm motion, controls the flood response. It is shown that small runoff ratios (less than 20%) characterized the runoff response and that these values are in the range of other, less extreme, flood events. The influence of storm structure, evolution and motion on the modeled flood hydrograph is examined by using the "spatial moments of catchment rainfall". It is shown that downbasin storm motion (in the range of 0.7–0.9 m s−1) had a noticeable impact on flood response by increasing the modeled flood peak by 13%.
32
Fieman, Dina M., Mikaël Attal, and Stephen Addy. "Geomorphic response of a mountain gravel-bed river to an extreme flood in Aberdeenshire, Scotland." Scottish Journal of Geology 56, no. 2 (February 11, 2020): 101–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1144/sjg2019-005.
Анотація:
This study uses the 2015 ‘Storm Frank’ flood on the River Dee, Aberdeenshire, to assess the impact of extreme events on river dynamics. The Storm Frank flood (>200 year recurrence interval) caused significant local morphological change that was concentrated in the middle portion of the 140 km long river and overall net degradation that primarily occurred through lateral adjustment processes. Although the flood did not cause widespread change in channel planform, morphological change at the reach scale (<1 km) was significant. Bank scour resulted in channel expansion and lateral migration as well as widespread aggradation on existing gravel beds. The HEC-RAS and CAESAR–Lisflood models were used to determine the impact of morphological changes from the Storm Frank flood on a series of future hypothetical floods. The results show that inundation is highly influenced by the degree of morphological change for moderate floods, but not for high magnitude ones. In-channel scour and bank erosion can lead to an increase in channel capacity, thereby decreasing inundation. Conversely, where conveyance capacity is decreased by aggradation, flood risk inherently increases. The impact of these changes was great for a five-year return period flood, but minimal for a magnitude flood comparable to that of Storm Frank. Our modelling results also reveal that the inundation model is sensitive to the grain size and channel bed roughness input parameters, as these parameters impact flow discharge and flood hydraulics. Accurate determination of sediment parameters and degree of morphological change is therefore critical in flooding modelling and flood hazard management.Supplementary material: Peak discharge and rainfall during the 2015 Storm Frank storm, parameters used in the hydrological model CAESAR–Lisflood and sediment budget statistics of each DEM of difference threshold are available at: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.4847946Thematic collection: This article is part of the Early Career Research collection available at: https://www.lyellcollection.org/cc/SJG-early-career-research
33
Jardine, Donald E., Xiuquan Wang, and Adam L. Fenech. "Highwater Mark Collection after Post Tropical Storm Dorian and Implications for Prince Edward Island, Canada." Water 13, no. 22 (November 12, 2021): 3201. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w13223201.
Анотація:
Prince Edward Island (PEI), Canada has been experiencing the consequences of a rising sea level and intense storms on its coasts in recent years. The most recent severe event, Post Tropical Storm Dorian (Dorian), began impacting Prince Edward Island on 7 September 2019 and lasted for over 20 h until the morning of 8 September 2019. The measurement of highwater marks (HWM) from the storm was conducted between 25 September and 25 October 2019 using a high precision, survey grade methodology. The HWM measured included vegetation lines, wrack lines, beach, cliff, and dune morphological features, and tide gauge data at 53 locations in the Province along coastal areas that are exposed to high tides, storm surge, high winds, and wave runup. Photos were taken to provide evidence on the nature of the HWM data locations. The data reveal that Dorian caused extensive coastal floods in many areas along the North and South Coast of Prince, Queens and Western Kings Counties of Prince Edward Island. The floods reached elevations in excess of 3.4 m at some locations, posing threats to local infrastructure and causing damage to natural features such as sand dunes in these areas. The HWM data can provide useful information for community and emergency response organizations as plans are developed to cope with the rising sea level and increased frequency of highwater events as predicted by researchers. As Dorian has caused significant damage in several coastal areas in PEI, better planning using an enhanced storm forecasting and coastal flood warning system, in conjunction with flood stage values, could possibly have reduced the impacts of the storm in the impacted areas. This could help enhance public understanding of the potential impacts in local areas and how they can prepare and adapt for these events in the future.
34
Kron, Wolfgang, and Olaf Müller. "Efficiency of flood protection measures: selected examples." Water Policy 21, no. 3 (April 4, 2019): 449–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wp.2019.023.
Анотація:
Abstract The frequency of flood loss events is increasing, both regionally and globally, due to the rising population and subsequent development of flood-prone areas, and as a result of environmental and climatic changes. This observation is not universally true for the time series of the losses themselves, at least not in the past one or two decades. One explanation for this is the improvement in flood control and flood protection in certain countries, both for floods that originate in the sea (storm surges) and for inland floods. While the qualitative effect of protection measures – reducing losses – is undisputed, quantitative examples are rare. Performance, or efficiency, needs to be calculated by comparing the costs of investment and maintenance against the losses prevented after a measure was put in place. In this article, a quantitative analysis of the performance of flood control measures is presented for four cases: the storm surge protection of the city of Hamburg, the Mississippi River and Tributary project, the activities of the Tennessee Valley Authority and the Sylvenstein Reservoir in Bavaria. In each case, a significant benefit has been observed in the past decades, proving that flood protection pays off many times over.
35
Mishra, Binaya Kumar. "Storm water Management in the context of Climate Change and Rapid Urbanization: A case of Tokyo Metropolitan." Journal of Engineering Technology and Planning 1 (December 1, 2019): 32–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/joetp.v1i0.38243.
Анотація:
Groundwater table depletion and increasing flood events can be easily realized in urban areas. It is necessary to improve existing storm water management systems for good quality water environment and reduced hydro-meteorological disasters while preserving our natural/pristine environment in a sustainable manner. This can be achieved through optimal collection, infiltration and storage of storm water. The need of sustainable storm water management is desired and optimal capture measure is explored in this paper. This paper provides a review of storm water management in urbanization and climate change context with a case study of Tokyo Metropolitan, Japan which could be helpful in mitigating the dual problems of groundwater depletion and flood events. This paper presents the overview of storm water run-off management in order to guide future storm water management policies. Also, the effects of different onsite facilities from water harvesting, reuse, ponds and infiltration are explored to establish adaptation strategies that restore water cycle and reduce climate change induced flood and water scarcity.
36
Tang, Boxiang, and Timu W. Gallien. "COMPOUND URBAN COASTAL FLOOD MODELING: INTEGRATING TIDE, WAVES, PRECIPITATION AND HYDRAULIC INFRASTRUCTURE." Coastal Engineering Proceedings, no. 37 (September 1, 2023): 92. http://dx.doi.org/10.9753/icce.v37.management.92.
Анотація:
Compound coastal flooding considers the joint impacts of marine and hydrologic interactions and has recently been identified as an international research priority. Along the US West Coast, winter storms often bring high marine water levels along with energetic waves and precipitation. Hydrodynamic models have been widely used to estimate flood impacts, including extreme estuarine water levels in compound events (e.g., riverine discharge-tide-storm surge interactions), and produced satisfactory results. However, few studies further consider overland flow routing and high-resolution flood mapping in highly urbanized, low-lying coastal areas. Here, an integrated Delft3D-FM based numerical modeling framework is used to explicitly resolve multi-pathway flood processes (i.e., high marine water levels, waves overtopping, precipitation) and infrastructure (e.g., seawalls, storm drains, artificial dunes).
37
Budillon, F., E. Esposito, M. Iorio, N. Pelosi, S. Porfido, and C. Violante. "The geological record of storm events over the last 1000 years in the Salerno Bay (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea): new proxy evidences." Advances in Geosciences 2 (May 9, 2005): 123–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-2-123-2005.
Анотація:
Abstract. The shallow marine Late Holocene wedge of the northern Salerno Bay shelf (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea) discloses the presence of four decimetric shelf-tapering sand beds. Their internal features, depicted by cores analysis and their stratigraphic position, revealed by VHR seismic investigations, inferred sandy layers as being the result of flash deposition, storm controlled, thus episodic. Stratigraphic correlations among cores lead to constrain sandy layers deposition to storm events falling in the 11th, 16th, 19th and 20th centuries. A certain attribution of the most recent event bed to the major cloudburst that hit the Salerno region in 1954A.D. and resulted in a disastrous flood of the Bonea stream, was formerly achieved. A tentative link with two sea-storms that occurred in the 1544A.D. and in the 1879A.D. and well documented by historical sources is here proposed to explain the deposition of the two previous event beds. The deposition of these sandy layers must be related to major storm events, since their preservation in the stratigraphic record is not common. Lithostratigraphic and textural differences between flood and sea-storm emplacement emerge from the study of sandy layers in cores and point to a prevalence of sea-storm deposits in the middle shelf compared to flood deposits. Seismic stratigraphic evidence lead us to suppose that the style of episodic flash deposition has been running on for the last 2-3kyr and is probably linked to a climatic trend of the region.
38
Li, Ting, Gyuwon Lee, and Gwangseob Kim. "Case Study of Urban Flood Inundation—Impact of Temporal Variability in Rainfall Events." Water 13, no. 23 (December 4, 2021): 3438. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w13233438.
Анотація:
This study aimed to calculate and analyze total overflows that accumulate in urban manholes in the target drainage basin of Samsung-dong, Seoul in heavy rainfall events with different temporal distribution characteristics, using the EPA’s Storm Water Management Model (EPA-SWMM model). Inundation behaviors were analyzed using the two-dimensional flood model (FLO-2D). The extreme rainfall events were produced using different exceedance probability Huff distributions for different durations and return periods, such as from 1 to 3 h and 10 years, 50 years, 80 years, 100 years, respectively. The inundation model was validated using the actual flood observations on 21 September 2010 in the Samsung-dong drainage basin. The total overflow amount showed considerable differences according to the different time distribution characteristics, such as the temporal location of the storm peak and the concentration level of the storm. Furthermore, the inundation behaviors were also related to the temporal characteristics of storms. The results illustrated that the consideration of the temporal distribution characteristics of extreme rainfall events is essential for an accurate understanding of the rainfall–runoff response and inundation behavior in urban drainage basins.
39
McRobie, Allan, Tom Spencer, and Herman Gerritsen. "The Big Flood: North Sea storm surge." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 363, no. 1831 (June 15, 2005): 1263–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2005.1567.
Анотація:
In the 50 years since the catastrophic southern North Sea storm surge of 31 January–1 February 1953, there have been technological advances in the engineering of flood protection, increased understanding of physical processes in shallow seas and estuaries, and developments in the mathematical statistics of extreme events. This introductory paper reviews how the scientific understanding of surge events, their impacts and the human responses to them is evolving on many fronts, often across disciplinary boundaries. The question of how the long-term nature of the problem itself will be influenced by possible climate, land use and policy changes is addressed, along with their associated uncertainties.
40
Wu, Yanjuan, Ivan D. Haigh, Chao Gao, Luke J. Jenkins, Joshua Green, Robert Jane, Yu Xu, Hengzhi Hu, and Naicheng Wu. "Compound Flooding Potential from the Joint Occurrence of Precipitation and Storm Surge in the Qiantang Estuary, China." Journal of Hydrometeorology 25, no. 5 (May 2024): 735–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-23-0102.1.
Анотація:
Abstract In coastal regions, compound flooding, driven by multiple flood hazard sources, can cause greater damage than when the flood drivers occur in isolation. This study focuses on compound flooding from extreme precipitation and storm surge in China’s Qiantang Estuary. We quantify the potential of compound flooding by measuring bivariate joint statistical dependence and joint return period (JRP). We find a significant positive dependence between the two flood drivers considered, as indicated by Kendall’s rank correlation coefficients. Compound events occur frequently, with an average of 2.65 events per year from 1979 to 2018, highlighting the significant concern of compound flooding for this estuary. Using a copula model, we demonstrate that considering the dependence between the two flood drivers shortens the JRP of compound flooding compared to the JRP assuming total independence. For a 1-in-10-yr precipitation event and 1-in-10-yr storm surge event, the JRP is 1 in 100 years when assuming total independence. However, it decreases to 1 in 32.44 years when considering their dependence. Ignoring the dependence between flood drivers can lead to an increase in the JRP of compound events, resulting in an underestimation of the overall flood risk. Our analysis reveals a strong link between the weather patterns creating compound events and extreme storm surge only events with tropical cyclone activity. Additionally, the extreme precipitation only events were found to be connected with the frontal system of the East Asian summer monsoon. This study highlights the importance of considering the dependence between multiple flood drivers associated with certain types of the same weather systems when assessing the flood risk in coastal regions.
41
Gourbesville, Philippe, and Masoud Ghulami. "Which models for extreme flood events in Mediterranean catchments?" IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1136, no. 1 (January 1, 2023): 012017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1136/1/012017.
Анотація:
Abstract Over the last years, most of the Mediterranean countries have been affected by catastrophic flood events generated by never observed before extreme rainfalls. Those events are frequently convective and stationary for several hours. The recorded intensities have frequently values exceeding 100 mm/hour and can last for several hours. Under those specific conditions as during the storm ALEX of October 2020, the runoff processes are particularly intense and can generate massive floods. Mitigation strategies should be developed and based on modeling that can support the understanding of the processes and the forecast the magnitude of the flood events and the associated impacts. The choice of the relevant hydrological modeling tools is a key element. The selected ones should be able to provide the relevant information, on time and with the relevant accuracy for the decision makers. The hydrological deterministic distributed models have reached a sufficient maturity to provide an accurate representation of the processes. The storm ALEX was generating more than 500 mm in less than 6 hours and producing a devastating flood within the Vésubie valley (France) in October 2020. The analysis of the event has demonstrated the difficulty to obtain consistent field observations and the limitations of many stochastic hydrological tools. The application of the AquaVar approach, combining several distributed deterministic models, has demonstrated its capacity to generate meaningful hydrographs and to quantify process with the catchment. The proposed solution is currently implemented within a real-time decision support system and can be used in real-time.
42
Zanial, W. N. C. W., M. A. Malek, and N. A. A. Aziz. "Sensitivity Analysis of Storm Duration for Development of Flood Map at Bertam Catchment, Cameron Highlands." International Journal of Engineering & Technology 7, no. 4.35 (November 30, 2018): 323. http://dx.doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i4.35.22754.
Анотація:
The current changes in climate have marked significant impacts in our daily weather. The changes have affected the trend, pattern and magnitude of rainfall-runoff as compared to the events commonly experienced. Flood is one of the effects of weather and climate change. Floods can be classified as one of the most devastating natural hazards and is a major concern to the country as it causes damages to human lives, environment, agriculture, land and structures. Therefore, effective flood planning and mitigation measures should be carried out in order to reduce the effects of flooding. Flood hazard map is one of the non-structural mitigation measures that can be used for planning purposes. Flood can be directly estimated or derived from frequency analysis when long duration of stream flow records is available. However, in the case of limited or no stream flow data available, design storm are generally used to estimate design flood. Downstream of Bertam Catchment is an ungauged river station where no flow records are available. Based on this limitation, in this study, design storm was used to design the flood map. Info Works RS was used to develop the flood model and sensitivity analysis of the design storm was performed. Results obtained in this study presented the comparison of flow between 100-years Annual Recurrence Interval (ARI) at various storm durations of 0.25hr, 0.5hr, 1hr, 3hrs, 6hrs, 12hrs, 1 day, 2days and 3 days. The maximum flow is found to be at 6hrs storm duration at 1103.418m3/s. Besides river flow, comparison of water level at 100-year ARI of various storm durations was also conducted. Results obtained from this study found that 24hrs storm duration will produce the highest water level at 1034.753m. By comparing the flow and water level, the result from river flow produces the maximum at 6hrs storm duration while the result of water level gives the maximum at 24hrs storm duration. Since, water level is preferable in producing flood hazard mapping at 2-D view, therefore, the storm duration is chosen based on results of sensitivity storm duration on water level conducted. Comparison is then conducted between 24-hrs storm duration at various ARIs. It can be concluded that 100-years ARI will lead to the maximum value of 1034.910m water level. Suitable storm duration and Annual Recurrence Interval (ARI) are to be determined in order to produce the best flood hazard map. In this study, it is found that 100-years ARI and 24hrs storm duration are the best combination, performed based on water level.
43
Lee, Seonmi, Youngje Choi, Jungwon Ji, Eunkyung Lee, Sooyeon Yi, and Jaeeung Yi. "Flood Vulnerability Assessment of an Urban Area: A Case Study in Seoul, South Korea." Water 15, no. 11 (May 23, 2023): 1979. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w15111979.
Анотація:
Climate change has led to frequent and extreme flooding events in urban areas such as Seoul, a city that is particularly vulnerable due to drainage systems that were not originally designed to handle such conditions. This study aims to develop region-specific storm risk matrices for the 25 districts in Seoul and predict storm risks. By accounting for local meteorological and geographic characteristics, these matrices will enable a more targeted approach to issuing heavy rainfall warnings, as opposed to the current nationwide system. The methodology involves calculating entropy weight based on various factors, assessing flood vulnerability, and estimating region-specific rainfall associated with warning levels. These warning levels are then used to create storm risk matrices, which are tested for conformity against historical flood events. Finally, a storm risk prediction technique is developed using rainfall forecasting data. Results demonstrate the feasibility of using the newly developed storm risk matrices to predict flood damage up to 72 h in advance. This greatly contributes to the development of effective mitigation plans for addressing climate change-driven urban flood damage. The study’s findings offer valuable insights for enhancing local-specific heavy rainfall warning systems and ensuring better preparation in the face of increasing urban flood risks due to climate change.
44
Abon, C. C., C. P. C. David, and N. E. B. Pellejera. "Reconstructing the Tropical Storm Ketsana flood event in Marikina River, Philippines." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 15, no. 4 (April 26, 2011): 1283–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1283-2011.
Анотація:
Abstract. In September 2009, Tropical Storm Ketsana (local name: TS Ondoy) hit the Manila metropolitan area (Metro Manila) and brought an anomalous volume of rain that exceeded the Philippines' forty-year meteorological record. The storm caused exceptionally high and extensive flooding. Part of this study was a survey conducted along the stretch of the Marikina River, one of the major rivers that flooded. Post-event resident interviews were used to reconstruct the flooding in the absence of stream gauge data. Hydraulic and hydrologic modeling were carried out to understand the mechanism that brought the flood. Peak floods occurred at different hours along the river resulting from the transmission of water from the main watershed to the downstream areas. Modeled peak flood and flood timing coincided well with actual observations except for downstream stations where actual peak floods were observed to have occurred at a later time. Compounding factors such as other flood sources and stream backflow could have caused this discrepancy. Nevertheless, prediction of flood heights and the use of the known time lag between the peak rainfall and the peak runoff could be utilized to issue timely flood forecasts to allow people to prepare for future flooding.
45
Chow, Winston T. L., Brendan D. Cheong, and Beatrice H. Ho. "A Multimethod Approach towards Assessing Urban Flood Patterns and Its Associated Vulnerabilities in Singapore." Advances in Meteorology 2016 (2016): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/7159132.
Анотація:
We investigated flooding patterns in the urbanised city-state of Singapore through a multimethod approach combining station precipitation data with archival newspaper and governmental records; changes in flash floods frequencies or reported impacts of floods towards Singapore society were documented. We subsequently discussed potential flooding impacts in the context of urban vulnerability, based on future urbanisation and forecasted precipitation projections for Singapore. We find that, despite effective flood management, (i) significant increases in reported flash flood frequency occurred in contemporary (post-2000) relative to preceding (1984–1999) periods, (ii) these flash floods coincide with more localised, “patchy” storm events, (iii) storms in recent years are also more intense and frequent, and (iv) floods result in low human casualties but have high economic costs via insurance damage claims. We assess that Singapore presently has low vulnerability to floods vis-à-vis other regional cities largely due to holistic flood management via consistent and successful infrastructural development, widespread flood monitoring, and effective advisory platforms. We conclude, however, that future vulnerabilities may increase from stresses arising from physical exposure to climate change and from demographic sensitivity via rapid population growth. Anticipating these changes is potentially useful in maintaining the high resilience of Singapore towards this hydrometeorological hazard.
46
Hurtado-Pidal, Jorge, Juan S. Acero Triana, Edgar Espitia-Sarmiento, and Fernando Jarrín-Pérez. "Flood Hazard Assessment in Data-Scarce Watersheds Using Model Coupling, Event Sampling, and Survey Data." Water 12, no. 10 (October 4, 2020): 2768. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12102768.
Анотація:
The application of hydrologic and hydrodynamic models in flash flood hazard assessment is mainly limited by the availability of robust monitoring systems and long-term hydro-meteorological observations. Nevertheless, several studies have demonstrated that coupled modeling approaches based on event sampling (short-term observations) may cope with the lack of observed input data. This study evaluated the use of storm events and flood-survey reports to develop and validate a modeling framework for flash flood hazard assessment in data-scarce watersheds. Specifically, we coupled the hydrologic modeling system (HEC-HMS) and the Nays2Dflood hydrodynamic solver to simulate the system response to several storm events including one, equivalent in magnitude to a 500-year event, that flooded the City of Tena (Ecuador) on 2 September, 2017. Results from the coupled approach showed satisfactory model performance in simulating streamflow and water depths (0.40 ≤ Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient ≤ 0.95; −3.67% ≤ Percent Bias ≤ 23.4%) in six of the eight evaluated events, and a good agreement between simulated and surveyed flooded areas (Fit Index = 0.8) after the 500-year storm. The proposed methodology can be used by modelers and decision-makers for flood impact assessment in data-scarce watersheds and as a starting point for the establishment of flood forecasting systems to lessen the impacts of flood events at the local scale.
47
Moore, John C., Aslak Grinsted, Xiaoran Guo, Xiaoyong Yu, Svetlana Jevrejeva, Annette Rinke, Xuefeng Cui, et al. "Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112, no. 45 (October 26, 2015): 13794–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1510530112.
Анотація:
Devastating floods due to Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However, the frequency of the most intense storms is likely to increase with rises in sea surface temperatures. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane Main Development Region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may mitigate hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using eight earth system model simulations of climate under the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G3 and G4 schemes that use stratospheric aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Global mean temperature increases are greatly ameliorated by geoengineering, and tropical temperature increases are at most half of those temperature increases in the RCP4.5. However, sulfate injection would have to double (to nearly 10 teragrams of SO2 per year) between 2020 and 2070 to balance the RCP4.5, approximately the equivalent of a 1991 Pinatubo eruption every 2 y, with consequent implications for stratospheric ozone. We project changes in storm frequencies using a temperature-dependent generalized extreme value statistical model calibrated by historical storm surges and observed temperatures since 1923. The number of storm surge events as big as the one caused by the 2005 Katrina hurricane are reduced by about 50% compared with no geoengineering, but this reduction is only marginally statistically significant. Nevertheless, when sea level rise differences in 2070 between the RCP4.5 and geoengineering are factored into coastal flood risk, we find that expected flood levels are reduced by about 40 cm for 5-y events and about halved for 50-y surges.
48
Krvavica, Nino, and Josip Rubinić. "Evaluation of Design Storms and Critical Rainfall Durations for Flood Prediction in Partially Urbanized Catchments." Water 12, no. 7 (July 18, 2020): 2044. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12072044.
Анотація:
This study investigates and compares several design storms for flood estimation in partially urbanized catchments. Six different design storms were considered: Euler II, alternating block method, average variability method, Huff’s curves, and uniform rainfall. Additionally, two extreme historical storms were included for comparison. A small, ungauged, partially urbanized catchment in Novigrad (Croatia) was chosen as a study area to account for the infiltration impact on the rainfall-runoff process. The performance of each design storm was assessed based on the flood modeling results, namely the water depth, water velocity, flow rate, and overall flood extent. Furthermore, several rainfall durations were considered to identify a critical scenario. The excess rainfall was computed using the Soil Conservation Service’s Curve Number method, and two-dimensional flooding simulations were performed by the HEC-RAS model. The results confirmed that the choice of the design storm and the rainfall duration has a significant impact on the flood modeling results. Overall, design storms constructed only from IDF curves overestimated flooding in comparison to historical events, whereas design storms derived from the analysis of observed temporal patterns matched or slightly underestimated the flooding results. Of the six considered design storms, the average variability method showed the closest agreement with historical storms.
49
Iliadis, Christos, Panagiota Galiatsatou, Vassilis Glenis, Panagiotis Prinos, and Chris Kilsby. "Urban Flood Modelling under Extreme Rainfall Conditions for Building-Level Flood Exposure Analysis." Hydrology 10, no. 8 (August 17, 2023): 172. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/hydrology10080172.
Анотація:
The expansion of urban areas and the increasing frequency and magnitude of intense rainfall events are anticipated to contribute to the widespread escalation of urban flood risk across the globe. To effectively mitigate future flood risks, it is crucial to combine a comprehensive examination of intense rainfall events in urban areas with the utilization of detailed hydrodynamic models. This study combines extreme value analysis techniques applied to rainfall data ranging from sub-hourly to daily durations with a high-resolution flood modelling analysis at the building level in the centre of Thessaloniki, Greece. A scaling procedure is employed to rainfall return levels assessed by applying the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution to annual maximum fine-temporal-scale data, and these scaling laws are then applied to more reliable daily rainfall return levels estimated by means of the generalised Pareto distribution (GPD), in order to develop storm profiles with durations of 1 h and 2 h. The advanced flood model, CityCAT, is then used for the simulation of pluvial flooding, providing reliable assessments of building-level exposure to flooding hazards. The results of the analysis conducted provide insights into flood depths and water flowpaths in the city centre of Thessaloniki, identifying major flowpaths along certain main streets resulting in localised flooding, and identifying around 165 and 186 buildings highly exposed to inundation risk in the study area for 50-year storm events with durations of 1 h and 2 h, respectively. For the first time in this study area, a detailed analysis of extreme rainfall events is combined with a high-resolution Digital Terrain Model (DTM), used as an input into the advanced and fully featured CityCAT hydrodynamic model, to assess critical flowpaths and buildings at high flood risk. The results of this study can aid in the planning and design of resilient solutions to combat urban flash floods, as well as contribute to targeted flood damage mitigation and flood risk reduction.
50
de Bruijn, K. M., F. L. M. Diermanse, and J. V. L. Beckers. "An advanced method for flood risk analysis in river deltas, applied to societal flood fatality risks in the Netherlands." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions 2, no. 2 (February 19, 2014): 1637–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-1637-2014.
Анотація:
Abstract. This paper discusses the new method developed to analyse flood risks in river deltas. Risk analysis of river deltas is complex, because both storm surges and river discharges may cause flooding and since the effect of upstream breaches on downstream water levels and flood risks must be taken into account. A Monte Carlo based flood risk analysis framework for policy making was developed, which considers both storm surges and river flood waves and includes hydrodynamic interaction effects on flood risks. It was applied to analyse societal flood fatality risks (the probability of events with more than N fatalities) in the Rhine–Meuse delta.