Добірка наукової літератури з теми "Species distribution modelling (SDM)"
Оформте джерело за APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard та іншими стилями
Ознайомтеся зі списками актуальних статей, книг, дисертацій, тез та інших наукових джерел на тему "Species distribution modelling (SDM)".
Біля кожної праці в переліку літератури доступна кнопка «Додати до бібліографії». Скористайтеся нею – і ми автоматично оформимо бібліографічне посилання на обрану працю в потрібному вам стилі цитування: APA, MLA, «Гарвард», «Чикаго», «Ванкувер» тощо.
Також ви можете завантажити повний текст наукової публікації у форматі «.pdf» та прочитати онлайн анотацію до роботи, якщо відповідні параметри наявні в метаданих.
Статті в журналах з теми "Species distribution modelling (SDM)":
1
Kamino, Luciana H. Y., João Renato Stehmann, Silvana Amaral, Paulo De Marco, Thiago F. Rangel, Marinez F. de Siqueira, Renato De Giovanni, and Joaquín Hortal. "Challenges and perspectives for species distribution modelling in the neotropics." Biology Letters 8, no. 3 (October 26, 2011): 324–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2011.0942.
Анотація:
The workshop ‘ Species distribution models: applications, challenges and perspectives ’ held at Belo Horizonte (Brazil), 29–30 August 2011, aimed to review the state-of-the-art in species distribution modelling (SDM) in the neotropical realm. It brought together researchers in ecology, evolution, biogeography and conservation, with different backgrounds and research interests. The application of SDM in the megadiverse neotropics—where data on species occurrences are scarce—presents several challenges, involving acknowledging the limitations imposed by data quality, including surveys as an integral part of SDM studies, and designing the analyses in accordance with the question investigated. Specific solutions were discussed, and a code of good practice in SDM studies and related field surveys was drafted.
2
Beale, Colin M., and Jack J. Lennon. "Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 367, no. 1586 (January 19, 2012): 247–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2011.0178.
Анотація:
Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.
3
Lowen, J. Benjamin, Devorah R. Hart, Ryan R. E. Stanley, Sarah J. Lehnert, Ian R. Bradbury, and Claudio DiBacco. "Assessing effects of genetic, environmental, and biotic gradients in species distribution modelling." ICES Journal of Marine Science 76, no. 6 (April 8, 2019): 1762–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsz049.
Анотація:
Abstract To develop more reliable marine species distribution models (SDMs), we examine how genetic, climatic, and biotic interaction gradients give rise to prediction error in marine SDM. Genetic lineages with distinct ecological requirements spanning genetic gradients have yet to be treated separately in marine SDM, which are often constrained to modeling the potential distribution of one biological unit (e.g. lineage or species) at a time. By comparing SDM performance for the whole species or where observation and predictions were partitioned among geographically discontinuous genetic lineages, we first identified the appropriate biological unit for modeling sea scallop. Prediction errors, in particular contiguous omissions at the northern range margins were effectively halved in genetic lineage SDM (Total error=15%) verses whole species SDM. Remaining SDM prediction error was strongly associated with: i) Sharp climatic gradients (abrupt and persistent spatial shifts in limiting temperatures) found within continental shelf breaks and bottom channels. ii) A biotic gradient in the predation of sea scallop juveniles by the sand star within the Hudson Shelf USA. Our findings highlight how the accuracy of marine SDM is dependent on capturing the appropriate biological unit for modeling (e.g. lineages rather than species) and adequately resolving limiting abiotic and biotic interaction gradients.
4
Naimi, Babak, and Miguel B. Araújo. "sdm: a reproducible and extensible R platform for species distribution modelling." Ecography 39, no. 4 (March 1, 2016): 368–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecog.01881.
5
Wunderlich, Rainer Ferdinand, Yu-Pin Lin, Johnathen Anthony, and Joy R. Petway. "Two alternative evaluation metrics to replace the true skill statistic in the assessment of species distribution models." Nature Conservation 35 (June 20, 2019): 97–116. http://dx.doi.org/10.3897/natureconservation.35.33918.
Анотація:
Model evaluation metrics play a critical role in the selection of adequate species distribution models for conservation and for any application of species distribution modelling (SDM) in general. The responses of these metrics to modelling conditions, however, are rarely taken into account. This leads to inadequate model selection, downstream analyses and uniformed decisions. To aid modellers in critically assessing modelling conditions when choosing and interpreting model evaluation metrics, we analysed the responses of the True Skill Statistic (TSS) under a variety of presence-background modelling conditions using purely theoretical scenarios. We then compared these responses with those of two evaluation metrics commonly applied in the field of meteorology which have potential for use in SDM: the Odds Ratio Skill Score (ORSS) and the Symmetric Extremal Dependence Index (SEDI). We demonstrate that (1) large cell number totals in the confusion matrix, which is strongly biased towards ‘true’ absences in presence-background SDM and (2) low prevalence both compromise model evaluation with TSS. This is since (1) TSS fails to differentiate useful from random models at extreme prevalence levels if the confusion matrix cell number total exceeds ~30,000 cells and (2) TSS converges to hit rate (sensitivity) when prevalence is lower than ~2.5%. We conclude that SEDI is optimal for most presence-background SDM initiatives. Further, ORSS may provide a better alternative if absence data are available or if equal error weighting is strictly required.
6
Felicísimo, Ángel M., Ignacio Armendáriz, and Virginia Alberdi Nieves. "Modelling the potential effects of climate change in the distribution of Xylotrechus arvicola in Spain." Horticultural Science 48, No. 1 (March 31, 2021): 38–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/85/2019-hortsci.
Анотація:
Xylotrechus arvicola is an emerging grape pest that generates serious sanitary problems in vineyards and is currently expanding its range throughout Spain. The increasing prevalence of this pest in Spanish vineyards has been detected since 1990. In this study, the relationship between the climate and the actual distribution of the beetle was analysed, as well as how this distribution might change in the future according to several climate change models. The methodology was based on predictive models (SDM; species distribution modelling) using climate variables as explanatory factors, although the relationships were not necessarily causal. Maxent was used as the SDM method. The current climatic niche was calculated, and the actual potential distribution area was estimated. The relationships between the climate variables and the species probability of the presence were projected to various future climate change scenarios. The main conclusions reached were that climate change will favour the expansion of X. arvicola and that the potential infestation zones will be extended significantly. Although the results, because they were based on hypothetical climate frameworks that are under constant revision, were not conclusive, they should be taken into consideration when defining future strategies in the wine industry.
7
De Marco, Paulo, José Alexandre Felizola Diniz-Filho, and Luis Mauricio Bini. "Spatial analysis improves species distribution modelling during range expansion." Biology Letters 4, no. 5 (July 29, 2008): 577–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2008.0210.
Анотація:
Species distribution models (SDMs) assume equilibrium between species' distribution and the environment. However, this assumption can be violated under restricted dispersal and spatially autocorrelated environmental conditions. Here we used a model to simulate species' ranges expansion under two non-equilibrium scenarios, evaluating the performance of SDM coupled with spatial eigenvector mapping. The highest fit is for the models that include space, although the relative importance of spatial variables during the range expansion differs in the two scenarios. Incorporating space to the models was important only under colonization-lag non-equilibrium, under the expected scenario. Thus, mechanisms that generate range cohesion and determine species' distribution under climate changes can be captured by spatial modelling, with advantages compared with other techniques and in line with recent claims that SDMs have to account for more complex dynamic scenarios.
8
Untalan, M. Z. G., D. F. M. Burgos, and K. P. Martinez. "SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELLING OF TWO SPECIES ENDEMIC TO THE PHILIPPINES TO SHOW THE APPLICABILITY OF MAXENT." ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences XLII-4/W19 (December 23, 2019): 449–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-xlii-4-w19-449-2019.
Анотація:
Abstract. Maxent is a machine learning model used for species distribution modelling (SDM) that is rising in popularity. As with any species distribution model, it needs to be validated for certain species before being used to generate insights and trusted predictions. Using Maxent, SDM of two endemic species in the Philippines, Varanus palawanensis (Palawan monitor lizard) and Caprimulgus manillensis (Philippine nightjar), were created using presence-only data, with 14 V. palawanensis and 771 C. manillensis occurrences, and 19 bioclimatic variables from BIOCLIM. This study shows the consistency to historical facts of Maxent on two endemic species of the Philippines of varying nature. The applicability of Maxent on the two very different species show that Maxent has high likelihood to give good results for other species. Showing that Maxent is applicable to the species of the Philippines gives additional tools for ecologists and national administrators to lead the development of the Philippines in the direction that conserves the biodiversity of the Philippines and that increases the productivity and quality of life in the Philippines.
9
Lobite, Neil Jun Sala. "Modelling Habitat Suitability and Distribution of the Endemic Mindanao Horned Frog (Pelobatrachus stejnegeri) and its Response to Changing Climate." Grassroots Journal of Natural Resources 7, no. 1 (April 30, 2024): 123–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.33002/nr2581.6853.070107.
Анотація:
Climate change is already affecting biodiversity, with special concern to endemics whose range is restricted and limited. This study focuses on the Mindanao horned frog (Pelobatrachus stejnegeri), an endemic species to the Philippines, susceptible to climate-induced habitat changes. Using MaxEnt species distribution model (SDM), the current and future (year 2050 projections) habitat suitability and distribution of P. stejnegeri were modelled. Results showed that annual mean temperature, elevation, and annual precipitation were the environmental variables having the highest influence on P. stejnegeri's distribution. The model predicts a significant range contraction under representative concentration pathways (RCP) future scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5), with a more pronounced decrease in distribution (31.72%) under the high emission scenario (RCP 8.5). These findings emphasize the vulnerability of P. stejnegeri to climate change and highlight the importance of integrating SDM into conservation and management strategies to protect endemic species under changing climatic conditions.
10
FREITAS, GUILHERME H. S., LÍLIAN M. COSTA, ANDERSON V. CHAVES, MARCELO F. VASCONCELOS, LEONARDO C. RIBEIRO, JULIANO C. SILVA, RONEY A. SOUZA, FABRÍCIO R. SANTOS, and MARCOS RODRIGUES. "Geographic range and conservation of the Cipo Canastero Asthenes luizae, an endemic furnariid of Brazilian sky islands." Bird Conservation International 30, no. 3 (October 31, 2019): 365–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0959270919000418.
Анотація:
SummaryCipo Canastero Asthenes luizae is a relict ovenbird restricted to rocky outcrops at high elevations within the campo rupestre vegetation of the Espinhaço Range in the state of Minas Gerais, south-eastern Brazil. This poorly known species is considered ‘Near Threatened’, but recent studies have suggested that it should be listed under a higher category of threat. To contribute to the knowledge of this species and its conservation assessment and related planning, we compiled all literature records of the species distribution (n = 16 locations), collected new data on its occurrence (n = 72 locations), and calculated its geographic range using four different approaches. First, we defined the sky islands where the species occurs (nine units) using the lowest elevation value recorded (1,100 m asl) as a cut-off. Second, we performed species distribution modelling (SDM) across the sky islands and identified an area of 2,225.21 km2. Third, we measured the species’ extent of occurrence (EOO = 24,555.85 km2) and used SDM to estimate its upper limit (EOOup = 30,697.58 km2). Fourth, we measured the area of occupancy (AOO = 228 km2) and used SDM to estimate its upper limit (AOOup = 1,827.39 km2). We analysed the Cipo Canastero sky islands in terms of landscape metrics including size, isolation, protected area coverage, shape index, core area index, and proportion covered by SDM. We observed a very fragmented distribution, especially in the North sector of the species distribution, composed of small and isolated populations (separated by up to 112 km); the South sector is the core of its distribution and is composed of larger, more connected patches with differences in shape complexity that are not strongly influenced by an edge effect. The range sizes calculated, along with other reported information regarding population and habitat trends, justifies the inclusion of the species in at least the ‘Vulnerable’ category.
Дисертації з теми "Species distribution modelling (SDM)":
1
Urvois, Teddy. "Structure génétique et modélisation de la distribution des populations de deux espèces invasives de Xylosandrus (Scolytinae - Xyleborini) : deux espèces proches aux histoires d’invasion différentes." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Orléans, 2022. https://theses.univ-orleans.fr/prive/accesESR/2022ORLE1031_va.pdf.
Анотація:
Xylosandrus compactus et X. crassiusculus sont deux scolytes originaires d’Asie du Sud-Est et invasifs sur plusieurs continents, dont la biologie et l’écologie atypiques favorisent l’invasion. Une approche pluridisciplinaire a été utilisée au cours de cette thèse afin (i) d’identifier l’origine des populations invasives et leurs routes d’invasion, et (ii) de déterminer les zones dans lesquelles elles pourraient s'étendre et s’établir. Les routes d’invasion ont été retracées à l’aide d’un marqueur mitochondrial et de marqueurs génomiques, et les zones favorables à l’établissement de chaque espèce ont été déterminées à l’aide de modèles de distribution d’espèces (SDM). Malgré leur proximité écologique et phylogénétique, les deux espèces ont une histoire d’invasion différente. Deux lignées ont été identifiées chez X. compactus, l’une originaire d’Inde ou du Vietnam ayant envahi l’Afrique et l’autre originaire de la région de Shanghai et ayant envahi indépendamment les Amériques et les îles du Pacifique, puis l’Europe. X. crassiusculus est composé de deux clusters très divergents, majoritairement allopatriques et possédant des niches écologiques différentes. Le cluster 1 a envahi indépendamment les îles du Pacifique et l’Afrique. Le cluster 2 est responsable de l’invasion en Amérique, en Europe, en Afrique et en Océanie, avec plusieurs invasions indépendantes de multiples origines (dont des événements dits "tête de pont") suivies de dispersion intra-continentale. Les SDM ont montré pour les deux espèces l’existence de zones favorables où elles ne sont pas encore présentes et qui sont donc susceptibles d’être envahies secondairement. Nous anticipons également un impact du changement climatique sur leurs potentielles distributions futures. A l'inverse, l'évolution récente du climat n'est pas responsable de l'invasion récente de l'Europe, ce continent étant favorable depuis plusieurs décenniesXylosandrus compactus and X. crassiusculus are two ambrosia beetles originating from Southeastern Asia and invasive on several continents, whose atypical biology and ecology favour invasion. During this thesis, a multidisciplinary approach was used to (i) identify the origin of invasive populations and their invasion routes and (ii) determine the areas in which they could spread and establish. Invasion routes were traced using a mitochondrial marker and genomic markers, and the suitable areas for each species were identified using species distribution models (SDM).Despite their ecological and phylogenetic proximity, the two species have different invasion histories. Two lineages were identified in X. compactus, one originating from India or Vietnam, who invaded Africa, and the other from the Shanghai area, who independently invaded the American-Pacific and Europe. X. crassiusculus comprises two very diverging clusters, mostly allopatric and with different ecological niches. Cluster 1 independently invaded Pacific islands and Africa. Cluster 2 is responsible for the invasion in the Americas, Europe, Africa and Oceania, with several independent introductions from multiple sources (including bridgehead, where an invasion occurs from an area already invaded) followed by intra-continental dispersion. For both species, SDM showed suitable areas where the pests are not present yet and which could be invaded. We expect an impact of climate change on their future potential distributions. Conversely, the recent evolution of climate is not responsible for their recent invasion in Europe, which has already been suitable for decades
2
Fournier, Alice. "Modéliser et prédire les invasions biologiques." Thesis, Université Paris-Saclay (ComUE), 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018SACLS144/document.
Анотація:
Les invasions biologiques, deuxième cause de perte de biodiversité à l’échelle mondiale, représentent un risque majeur auquel nos sociétés doivent faire face. On parle d’invasion biologique lorsque des activités humaines permettent à une espèce de franchir des barrières qui jusqu’alors limitaient sa dispersion ou sa multiplication, entrainant une explosion géographique et démographique de l’espèce dans un nouvel écosystème et s’accompagnant éventuellement d’impacts économiques, sociétaux ou écologiques. La façon la plus efficace et la moins coûteuse de limiter les impacts causés par les espèces envahissante et de les prévoir en amont afin de mettre en place des mesures de prévention ciblées et efficaces et d’essayer de les éviter.L’objectif de cette thèse est de démontrer qu’il est possible d’améliorer la prédiction des invasions biologiques en développant et combinant différentes approches de modélisation de façon innovante. Les questions posées sont de savoir s’il est possible de prévoir quelles pourraient-être ces espèces, où elles pourraient devenir envahissantes et quels impacts elles pourraient avoir. Toutes les méthodes développées dans cette thèse ont été appliquées à des hyménoptères sociaux ; nombreuses espèces de fourmis (famille des Formicidés) ou frelon asiatique (famille des Vespidés, vespa Velutina nigrithorax), mais elles sont généralisables et réutilisables pour tout autre taxa.Je montre dans cette thèse qu’il est possible de développer un outil statistique de détection des espèces risquant de devenir envahissantes. J’applique cet outil aux fourmis, je fournis une liste de 15 espèces de fourmis risquant de devenir envahissantes à travers le monde et je cartographie les zones du globe risquant d’être envahies par ces espèces. Chacun des continents est menacée par au moins une de ces invasions potentielles. Dans un deuxième temps, je mets au point d’un cadre méthodologique permettant d’améliorer les prédictions d’aires de distribution des espèces en combinant leurs exigences climatiques et d’habitat, tout en respectant l’échelle géographique à laquelle ces facteurs agissent sur la distribution des espèces. J’applique cette méthode au frelon asiatique, ce qui me permet d’identifier les habitats qui lui sont les plus favorables et d’utiliser ces informations pour raffiner la prédiction de son aire favorable. En combinant le climat et l’habitat, je prédis une aire potentielle de distribution 56% plus restreinte par rapport aux estimations basées sur le climat uniquement. Enfin, dans un troisième temps, je m’intéresse au développement d’une méthode permettant de prédire spatialement les impacts causés par une invasion biologique. Pour ce faire, je prédis d’abord l’abondance potentielle du frelon asiatique en France. Je couple ensuite cette prédiction avec des données de présence de ruches et un modèle présidant l’impact du frelon asiatique sur la survie des colonies d’abeilles. J’estime enfin que cette invasion peut conduire à l’effondrement de 41% des colonies d’abeilles domestiques en France.Cette thèse met en lumière l’utilité d’intégrer la modélisation dans la construction du savoir autour des invasions biologiques, approche relativement nouvelle dans ce champ disciplinaire. De plus, elle illustre comment la modélisation et l’élaboration de prédictions peuvent aider à objectiver la prise de décision concernant la gestion des espèces envahissantes et optimiser leur efficacité en ciblant les habitats, les régions et les espèces d’action prioritairesBiologicals invasions, the second cause of biodiversity loss worldwide, represent a major threat that our societies have to face. Invasive species correspond to species that, due to human activities, cross geographic and reproduction barriers and expand into new areas in large numbers. This spread into new ecosystems may have severe socio-economic or ecological impacts. The most efficient way to limit these impacts is to predict and avoid biological invasions before they occur by setting up appropriate management plans.The aim of this PhD thesis is to demonstrate that existing predictive models can be further developed and combined together to improve biological invasion predictions. All of the methods developed in this thesis have been applied to social Hymenoptera: ant species (Formicidae) and the Asian hornet (Vespa velutina nigrithorax), but they are generalizable to any other taxa. The questions asked are: can we predict future invader species? Can we improve the spatial predictions of their distribution? Can we predict invasive species impact?First, I show in this thesis that it is possible to develop a model that detects future invasive species, even before they have had the chance to be moved outside their native range. I apply this screening tool to more than 2000 ant species, provide a list of the 15 ant species that are highly likely to become invasive and map their global suitability to highlights the area the most at risk from these invasions. All continents are threatened by at least one of these potential invasions. Second, I set up a methodological framework to improve species distribution predictions by combining multi-scale drivers. I apply this method to the invasive Asian hornet, identify its high affinity habitats, and use this information to refine suitability maps. I show that integrating multiple drivers, while still respecting their scale of effect, produced a potential range 55.9% smaller than that predicted using a climatic model alone. Finally, I propose a method to predict invasive species impacts in a spatially explicit way and I apply it to the estimate the Asian hornet’s impact on honeybee colonies in France. To do so, I estimate the Asian hornet nest density across France and combine it with an agent-based hive model to estimate honeybee mortality risk. I show that up to 41% of the honeybee colonies are likely to collapse due to the Asian hornet.Overall, these studies demonstrate how modelling techniques can provide valuable inputs to improve invasive species management decision by offering tools to optimize prevention strategies and target areas, species or habitats where action is needed in priority. Biological invasions involve our scientific, political and cultural perceptions in an intricate way; this PhD thesis highlights the usefulness of bringing together modelling techniques and the rest of biological invasion knowledge to better grasp invasion science complexity
3
Dal, Maso Elisa. "Epidemiology and control strategies applied to ash dieback and chestnut ink disease." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Padova, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/11577/3424092.
Анотація:
Main goal of forest diseases’ management is to reduce economic, biological and aesthetic damages and biodiversity loss caused by plant parasites. The many strategies used can be grouped under two main actions, prevention (prophylaxis in some early writings) and therapy (treatment or cure). Prevention is limited primarily by the lack of knowledge of the organisms involved, including host plants. Mathematical models have been used to extend the understanding of plant disease epidemiology on a number of fronts, providing an opportunity for a more rational use of resources on expensive field trials and representing a step towards more sustainable control measures. From a curative point of view, current efforts by scientists have focused on developing diseases management (Pest Management = PM) concepts in order to balance the benefits of pesticides with the ecological concerns of their residues contaminating the environment.
In this thesis, the two PM principles were applied from an innovative point of view on two case studies: ash dieback caused by Hymenoscyphus fraxineus, which can be considered the most serious disease for Fraxinus genus in Europe, and chestnut ink disease, caused by Phytophthora cambivora and P. cinnamomi.
In the first part of the thesis, the two diseases are introduced, in order to permit the evaluation of similarities and differences (chapter I).
Subsequently, from chapter II to chapter V, the experimental trials performed are described. In particular, in chapter II a study of the ecological niche of H. fraxineus, with the characterization of the environmental variables associated with naturally infected zones, is reported. This procedure was realized with Species Distribution Models (SDM), widely utilized in the ecological field and only recently applied to plant pathology. The presence of the pathogen was highly correlated to three summer predictors: abundant precipitation, high soil moisture and low air temperature, in comparison with the averages of the study area. The ensemble forecasting technique was then applied to obtain a prediction of the potential distribution of the pathogen at European scale, considering the distribution maps of Fraxinus excelsior and Fraxinus angustifolia, susceptible to the parasite. At last, an innovative method of network analysis permitted to identify the suitable areas that are not reachable by the pathogen with a natural spread.
Chapter III reports a study conducted to evaluate six fungicides for their potential to control ash dieback. Initially, in vitro tests of the active ingredients against five different strains of the pathogen indicated thiabendazole, propiconazole and allicin as the most effective fungicides, with lower median lethal doses than procloraz. In contrast, copper sulphate and potassium phosphite were totally ineffective. Subsequently, the antifungal activities of the best three compounds were investigated in planta against H. fraxineus by trunk injection on European ashes inoculated with an indigenous strain. The test was preceded by preliminary trials to maximize the efficacy of injections; in the experimental conditions highest speed was reached with the addition of 1.2 % acetic acid to the aqueous solution and making treatments in early morning or late afternoon. Considering the results of in planta trial, thiabendazole and allicin significantly slowed down the growth of the necroses in the growing season, in contrast propiconazole injections were impracticable.
The studies in chapters IV and V recall the methodologies applied to ash dieback, with application to chestnut ink disease complex. In particular, in chapter IV fuzzy logic theory was applied considering the environmental variables, such as minimum winter temperature, summer drought, slope's aspect, streams' distance and soil's permeability, that mainly can influence the development of the disease. The model was validated with a broad field survey conducted in a chestnut area in Treviso province. Moreover, uncertainty maps (regarding model structure, inputs and parameters) were produced for the correct interpretation of the prediction. Great part of the chestnut area in the study zone resulted as suitable for the development of ink disease, whereas only the 18.8 %, corresponding to higher elevation zones, presented inferior risks.
In a second study (chapter V), a comparative efficacy trial on four potassium phosphite formulations by means of endotherapy against chestnut ink disease is performed. P. cinnamomi was isolated with baiting technique from symptomatic chestnuts and was inoculated on 50 asymptomatic trees. As a result of endotherapic treatments, the unique solution that significantly slowed down necroses' growth was potassium phosphite (35 %) with an addition of 0.1 % micronutrient solution. An additional endotherapic trial was conducted in a preliminary way in the chestnut where P. cinnamomi was isolated, with the main aim to evaluate growth stimulation of active growing callus next to the shape flame necroses by the injected solution of potassium phosphite 70 %. In this case, results did not highlight a significant difference between treated trees and water control ones, probably for the need of longer times for older trees.
On the base of the achieved results, epidemiological modelling and endotherapic treatments, applied both to ash dieback and chestnut ink disease, can represent fundamental tools in the management of these important diseases and should be applied in an Integrated Pest Management (IPM) approach, together with appropriate cultural techniques to maximize benefits.Lo scopo principale della gestione delle malattie forestali è la riduzione dei danni economici, biologici ed estetici e delle perdite di biodiversità dovute alle malattie delle piante. Le molteplici strategie usate nella gestione delle malattie possono essere raggruppate in due azioni principali, la prevenzione (anche detta profilassi) e la terapia (trattamento o cura). La prevenzione è principalmente limitata dalla mancanza di conoscenza in merito all'organismo in oggetto e i suoi ospiti. I modelli matematici sono stati utilizzati per approfondire la conoscenza delle malattie delle piante con vari obiettivi. Essi offrono l'opportunità di affrontare un uso razionale delle risorse riguardo ai costosi monitoraggi e rappresentano un passo fondamentale verso misure di controllo più sostenibili. Da un punto di vista curativo, oggigiorno gli sforzi sono focalizzati allo sviluppo di concetti di gestione delle malattie che bilancino i benefici dei pesticidi con le preoccupazioni in merito ai residui che possono contaminare l'ambiente. In questa tesi, i due principi della gestione della malattia sono stati affrontati con due casi studio: il dissecamento del frassino, causata da Hymenoscyphus fraxineus, che può essere considerata la più grave malattia del genere Fraxinus in Europa, e il mal dell'inchiostro del castagno, causata da Phytophthora cambivora (Petri) Buism. and P. cinnamomi Rands. Nella prima parte della tesi sono state introdotte le due malattie, in modo da poterne appurare somiglianze e differenze (Capitolo I). Successivamente, dal capitolo II al capitolo V sono descritte le prove sperimentali effettuate. In particolare, nel capitolo II è stato approntato uno studio della nicchia ecologica di H. fraxineus, con la caratterizzazione di variabili ecologiche e ambientali associate a zone naturalmente infette. Tale procedura è stata effettuata tramite Species Distribution Models (SDM), ampiamente utilizzati in ambito ecologico e da poco tempo anche nell'ambito della patologia vegetale. La presenza del patogeno è risultata fortemente correlata a tre variabili ambientali estive, in particolare abbondanti precipitazioni, alta umidità del suolo e basse temperature, in comparazione con la media dell'area di studio. Successivamente la tecnica dell'ensemble forecasting è stata applicata per ottenere una predizione della distribuzione potenziale del patogeno a scala europea, considerando la distribuzione di F. excelsior e F. angustifolia, ospiti della malattia. Infine, un innovativo metodo di network analysis ha permesso di individuare le aree ecologicamente adatte al patogeno ma non raggiungibili con una diffusione naturale. Nel capitolo III viene descritto uno studio condotto per valutare sei diversi fungicidi contro H. fraxineus. Inizialmente è stata effettuata una prova in vitro dei prodotti commerciali contro cinque ceppi del patogeno. Tiabendazolo, propiconazolo e allicina sono risultati i fungicidi più efficaci, con dose letale mediana più bassa, rispetto, per esempio, al principio attivo procloraz. Al contrario, il solfato di rame e i fosfiti di potassio si sono rilevati completamente inefficaci. Successivamente, i tre migliori fungicidi sono stati applicati in planta tramite trattamenti endoterapici su frassini maggiori inoculati al tronco con un ceppo autoctono. Tale test è stato anticipato da prove preliminari per massimizzare l'efficienza delle iniezioni; nelle condizioni stazionali e climatiche delle prove, maggiori velocità sono state raggiunte con soluzione acquosa addizionata con 1.2 % di acido acetico, effettuando i trattamenti la mattina presto o nel pomeriggio tardo. Considerando i risultati della prova in planta, tiabendazolo e allicina hanno rallentato in maniera significativa la crescita delle necrosi, al contrario non si è riusciti a iniettare la soluzione a base di propiconazolo. I capitoli IV e V riprendono le metodologie applicate contro la patologia del dissecamento del frassino, applicandole al mal dell'inchiostro del castagno. In particolare nel capitolo IV, la teoria fuzzy è stata adottata nello studio del complesso del mal dell'inchiostro, includendo nella costruzione del modello variabili ambientali quali temperatura minima invernale, siccità estiva, esposizione, distanza da corsi d'acqua e permeabilità del suolo, che più possono influire sullo sviluppo della malattia. Il modello è stato validato con un'ampia ricerca sul campo condotta nei castagneti nell'area di Treviso. Inoltre, sono state prodotte delle mappe dell'incertezza (inerenti a struttura, input e parametri del modello) per la corretta interpretazione della previsione. Buona parte dell'area a castagneto nella zona di studio si è rivelata adatta allo sviluppo del mal dell'inchiostro, mentre solo il 18.8 %, corrispondente alle aree più elevate, presentava rischi inferiori. Un secondo studio (capitolo V) ha riguardato una prova comparativa di efficacia di quattro formulazioni di fosfiti di potassio tramite endoterapia. P. cinnamomi è stata isolata con la tecnica del baiting in un castagneto affetto da mal dell'inchiostro ed è stata inoculata su 50 castagni asintomatici. In seguito ai trattamenti endoterapici, l'unica soluzione che ha significativamente rallentato la crescita delle necrosi è stata quella a base di fosfiti di potassio (35 %) addizionata con 0.1 % di soluzione di micronutrienti. Un'ulteriore prova di endoterapia è stata condotta in via preliminare nel castagneto abbandonato in cui era stata isolata P. cinnamomi, al fine di valutare la stimolazione alla crescita del callo cicatriziale da parte della soluzione iniettata fosfiti di potassio 70 %. I risultati ottenuti in questo caso non hanno evidenziato una differenza significativa rispetto ai controlli trattati con acqua, probabilmente per una necessità di tempi più lunghi considerando piante di età maggiore. In base ai risultati raggiunti, la modellistica epidemiologica e i trattamenti endoterapici sperimentati in merito alle patologie del dissecamento del frassino e al mal dell'inchiostro del castagno possono rappresentare degli strumenti fondamentali nella gestione integrata delle malattie considerate, da applicare insieme ad appropriate tecniche colturali per massimizzarne i benefici.
4
Andrade, André Felipe Alves de. "Estimativa da vulnerabilidade dos corais brasileiros." Universidade Federal de Goiás, 2016. http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/tede/handle/tede/5592.
Анотація:
Submitted by Cláudia Bueno (claudiamoura18@gmail.com) on 2016-05-19T19:46:17Z
No. of bitstreams: 2
Dissertação - André Felipe Alves de Andrade - 2016.pdf: 2007118 bytes, checksum: 69341ce5bc6c459857d1feff5d92366e (MD5)
license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5)Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2016-05-20T13:54:17Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - André Felipe Alves de Andrade - 2016.pdf: 2007118 bytes, checksum: 69341ce5bc6c459857d1feff5d92366e (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5)
Made available in DSpace on 2016-05-20T13:54:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - André Felipe Alves de Andrade - 2016.pdf: 2007118 bytes, checksum: 69341ce5bc6c459857d1feff5d92366e (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-02-26
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES
Coral reefs are of extreme importance to both nature and society, due to being responsible for several services and harbouring hundreds of species. Despite such critical importance, reef corals current suffered heavy losses since the Anthropocene, with 20% of world´s corals damaged beyond recovery due to human pressure and coastal development. This scenario is even worse, since corals are especially vulnerable to climate change and the entire ecosystem could go extinct by 2050. In this study we focus on comparing the already established impacts from human development and the yet happen losses from climate change on Brazilian corals, a unique fauna that still have gaps in knowledge. We created environmental suitability models for 24 species and quantified individual losses from both climate change and human activities. From the individual results we derived an overall pattern, in which we found out that future losses from climate alteration are equivalent to current losses from human activities. We then used the spatial distribution of those activities and key areas for conservation, determined with software Zonation, to select six areas in the Brazilian exclusive economic zone where proactive and reactive conservation strategies should be implanted, given its importance to biodiversity and concentrated anthropogenic impacts. Overall suitability losses were of approximately 30% for both sources and 60% of the areas will continue to be suitable in the future. Therefore, Brazilian corals will experience heavy losses from climate, especially the loss of highly suitable areas, which are compared to effects from human economic activities. Coral situation is likely to be even worse, if we were to consider bleaching, ocean acidification and diseases, events expected to increase with the rising temperature.
Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) is widely used for conservation purposes, predicting species invasion, evolutionary aspects and a whole array of applications. However, for most cases, evaluating the efficiency of those models poses as problematic, as commonly used methods (i.e. random methods) do not assure the required independence between data used to create the model and data used to evaluate the model. We developed a new transferabilitybased framework that ensures the much-needed independence between subsets. We created an alternate approach that geographically splits occurrence datasets, while intrinsically controls issues related to previous transferability approaches, such as overfitting, extrapolation and sampling bias. We used 26 Atlantic coral species to perform three different geographical divisions quantifying the effect of different splits on model predictive efficiency. We demonstrate that transferability should be used as an effective method to evaluate ENMs. Geographical split of the area in deciles proved as a reliable evaluation method, assuring independence between datasets and being less prone to common transferability issues. Our odds-and-evens framework provides improvements to the ongoing debate of ENMs evaluating by its transferability. This new method corrects the issue of artificiality causing sampling bias and overfitting, common in previous methodologies, while also is less prone to extrapolation issues, a common problem in transferability approaches. Moreover, the framework appears as a feasible and useful alternative to the problematic and commonly used random partition of datasets evaluation.
5
Serrano, Atuesta Yuliett Marcela. "Patterns of distribution of tree species in the neotropical lowland rainforest biome." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/31237.
Анотація:
This thesis aims to explore distributional patterns of tree species in the neotropical lowland rain forest biome based on diversity analyses, dated phylogenies and species distribution models, using the family Sapotaceae as a case study. Sapotaceae is an abundant and diverse group in the neotropical lowland rain forest and its distributional patterns are representative of other tree clades in this biome. These characteristics make this family a good model to test ecological and biogeographic hypothesis in neotropical rain forests. An analysis of beta-diversity measured by the number of shared species was used as a test of biotic homogeneity of Morrone's (2001) widely used system of neotropical biogeographic units. Biotic homogeneity was generally low, and Morrone's (2001) biogeographic regionalisation was found not to coincide with the distributional patterns of Sapotaceae species. Divergence times of Sapotaceae species were estimated using a dated phylogeny based on DNA sequences of the nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer (ITS) to explore the effects of Andean uplift, closure of the Isthmus of Panama and Pleistocene climatic changes on the evolutionary history of lowland rain forests in northern South America. The Andean uplift was found to have affected patterns of distribution by creating new habitats and altering hydrologic systems in northern South America, and in some cases by isolating lineages to the east and west of the Eastern Cordillera of the Andes. The closure of the Panama Isthmus and Pleistocene climatic changes do not seem to have strongly affected patterns of distribution or diversification in Sapotaceae. In general, the lack of congruent dates for many repeated biogeographic splits in the phylogeny (e.g., Amazon-Choco) suggests that idiosyncratic dispersal events have had a substantial effects on Sapotaceae's biogeography. Finally, species distribution models generated for Sapotaceae in the Neotropics were used to identify areas of high predicted species richness in Colombia. The highest diversity of Sapotaceae species was predicted for the inter-Andean valleys and northern Amazon. These results were compared to the current system of Protected Areas in this country, demonstrating that areas of high conservation value based on predicted species richness have a low coverage of Protected Areas. Such gaps highlight the potential need for new systems for the delimitation of basic units for conservation at national levels in Colombia.
6
Robertson, Mark Peter. "Predictive modelling of species' potential geographical distributions." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1007189.
Анотація:
Models that are used for predicting species' potential distributions are important tools that have found applications in a number of areas of applied ecology. The majority of these models can be classified as correlative, as they rely on strong, often indirect, links between species distribution records and environmental predictor variables to make predictions. Correlative models are an alternative to more complex mechanistic models that attempt to simulate the mechanisms considered to underlie the observed correlations with environmental attributes. This study explores the influence of the type and quality of the data used to calibrate correlative models. In terms of data type, the most popular techniques in use are group discrimination techniques, those that use both presence and absence locality data to make predictions. However, for many organisms absence data are either not available or are considered to be unreliable. As the available range of profile techniques (those using presence only data) appeared to be limited, new profile techniques were investigated and evaluated. A new profile modelling technique based on fuzzy classification (the Fuzzy Envelope Model) was developed and implemented. A second profile technique based on Principal Components Analysis was implemented and evaluated. Based on quantitative model evaluation tests, both of these techniques performed well and show considerable promise. In terms of data quality, the effects on model performance of false absence records, the number of locality records (sample size) and the proportion of localities representing species presence (prevalence) in samples were investigated for logistic regression distribution models. Sample size and prevalence both had a significant effect on model performance. False absence records had a significant influence on model performance, which was affected by sample size. A quantitative comparison of the performance of selected profile models and group discrimination modelling techniques suggests that different techniques may be more successful for predicting distributions for particular species or types of organism than others. The results also suggest that several different model design! sample size combinations are capable of making predictions that will on average not differ significantly in performance for a particular species. A further quantitative comparison among modelling techniques suggests that correlative techniques can perform as well as simple mechanistic techniques for predicting potential distributions.
7
Marshall, Charlotte Emily. "Species distribution modelling to support marine conservation planning." Thesis, University of Plymouth, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10026.1/1176.
Анотація:
This thesis explores some important practical considerations concerning the use of species distribution models in marine conservation planning. Using geo-referenced gorgonian distribution data, together with explanatory environmental variables, predictive models have been used to map the spatial distribution of suitable gorgonian (sea fan) habitat in two study sites; Hatton Bank, in the Northeast Atlantic, and Lyme Bay on the south coast of Devon. Generalized Linear Models (GLMs), Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and a Maximum Entropy (Maxent) model have been used to support critical investigation into important model considerations that have received inadequate attention in the marine environment. The influence of environmental data resolution on model performance has been explored with specific reference to available datasets in the nearshore and offshore environments. The transferability of deep-sea models has been similarly appraised, with recommendations as to the appropriate use of transferred models. Investigating these practical issues will allow managers to make informed decisions with respect to the best and most appropriate use of existing data. This study has also used novel approaches and investigated their suitability for marine conservation planning, including the use of model classification error in the spatial prioritisation of monitoring sites, and the adaptation of an existing presence-only modelling method to include absence data. Together, these studies contribute both practical recommendations for marine conservation planning and novel applications within the wider species distribution modelling discipline, and consider the implications of these developments for managers, to ensure the ongoing improvement and development of models to support conservation planning.
8
Dube, Qobo. "Species distribution modelling of Aloidendron dichotomum (quiver tree)." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/29625.
Анотація:
A variety of species distribution models (SDMs) were fit to data collected by a 15,000km road-side visual survey of Aloidendron dichotomum populations in the Northern Cape region of South Africa, and Namibia. We fit traditional presence/absence SDMs as well as SDMs on how proportions are distributed across three species stage classes (juvenile, adult, dead). Using five candidate machine learning methods and an ensemble model, we compared a number of approaches, including the role of balanced class (presence/absence) datasets in species distribution modelling. Secondary to this was whether or not the addition of species’ absences, generated where the species is known not to exist have an impact on findings. The goal of the analysis was to map the distribution of Aloidendron dichotomum under different scenarios. Precipitation-based variables were generally more deterministic of species presence or lack thereof. Visual interpretation of the estimated Aloidendron dichotomum population under current climate conditions, suggested a reasonably well fit model, having a large overlap with the sampled area. There however were some conditions estimated to be suitable for species incidence outside of the sampled range, where Aloidendron dichotomum are not known to occur. Habitat suitability for juvenile individuals was largely decreasing in concentration towards Windhoek. The largest proportion of dead individuals was estimated to be on the northern edge of the Riemvasmaak Conservancy, along the South African/Namibian boarder, reaching up to a 60% composition of the population. The adult stage class maintained overall proportional dominance. Under future climate scenarios, despite maintaining a bulk of the currently habitable conditions, a noticeable negative shift in habitat suitability for the species was observed. A temporal analysis of Aloidendron dichotomum’s latitudinal and longitudinal range revealed a potential south-easterly shift in suitable species conditions. Results were however met with some uncertainty as SDMs were uncovered to be extrapolating into a substantial amount of the study area. We found that balancing response class frequencies within the data proved not to be an effective error reduction technique overall, having no considerable impact on species detection accuracy. Balancing the classes however did improve the accuracy on the presence class, at the cost of accuracy of the observed absence class. Furthermore, overall model accuracy increased as more absences from outside the study area were added, only because these generated absences were predicted well. The resulting models had lower estimated suitability outside of the survey area and noticeably different suitability distributions within the survey area. This made the addition of the generated absences undesirable. Results highlighted the potential vulnerability of Aloidendron dichotomum given the pessimistic, yet likely future climate scenarios.
9
Hanf, Daniella. "Species Distribution Modelling of Western Pilbara Inshore Dolphins." Thesis, Hanf, Daniella (2015) Species Distribution Modelling of Western Pilbara Inshore Dolphins. Masters by Research thesis, Murdoch University, 2015. https://researchrepository.murdoch.edu.au/id/eprint/29205/.
Анотація:
This thesis presents the first insights into inshore dolphin distribution of the western Pilbara. The region is undergoing rapid coastal development, which has the potential to threaten Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops aduncus) and Australian humpback dolphin (Sousa sahulensis) populations. Understanding the distribution of these species is essential for their conservation.
Species distribution models (SDMs) were developed using dolphin sightings data that were opportunistically collected during dugong aerial surveys. A geographical information system (GIS) was used to generate the training data, which consisted of the binomial presence-absence of dolphins, distances from mainland and islands, sea surface temperature (SST), ocean fronts and bathymetric derivatives. Preliminary models were developed using generalised additive model (GAM) and component-wise boosting techniques. Models could not be fit to the data using either technique. It was unclear whether this was a result of relatively few dolphin sightings across a large study area, pseudo-absences, weak environmental variables, or a combination of all of these factors. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) software was subsequently used as an alternative modelling technique to model the presence of dolphins, along with automatically generated background data, in order to avoid problems associated with unreliable absence data.
Bottlenose and humpback dolphins were sympatric, with overlap in occurrence across the study area. Bottlenose dolphin presence was associated with the slope at the 20 m contour and waters around the Muiron Islands. This is likely to be a productive area that could be important for foraging. Humpback dolphin presence was associated with intertidal areas, including shallow coastal waters near the mainland and surrounding islands. The presence of numerous offshore islands would thus explain why humpback dolphins were recorded more than 50 km from the coastline.
MaxEnt models were limited in their predictive power. Dedicated aerial surveys for inshore dolphins, using standardised techniques, are required to obtain reliable species data. In addition to increasing the sample size available for modelling, greater certainty in group size and composition could allow count, calf and mixed species group data to be modelled. Adequate species conservation needs to incorporate various ecological processes that occur at different spatial and temporal scales. Guidance is provided for undertaking boat-based studies and biopsy sampling, gathering opportunistic sightings data, and undertaking satellite telemetry research in addition to dedicated aerial surveys.
Distribution modelling for inshore dolphins of northern WA is an intrinsically challenging research project, due to limited habitat data and the elusive nature of the subject species, particularly humpback dolphins. This research has obtained the first insights into the distribution of inshore dolphins in northern WA. Through lessons learnt, this research has paved the way for the development of future models to have a greater predictive ability, which will be useful for the conservation of threatened inshore dolphin species.
10
Kon, Kam King Guillaume. "Revisiting Species Sensitivity Distribution : modelling species variability for the protection of communities." Thesis, Lyon 1, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015LYO10194/document.
Анотація:
La SSD (Species Sensitivity Distribution) est une méthode utilisée par les scientifiques et les régulateurs de tous les pays pour fixer la concentration sans danger de divers contaminants sources de stress pour l'environnement. Bien que fort répandue, cette approche souffre de diverses faiblesses sur le plan méthodologique, notamment parce qu'elle repose sur une utilisation partielle des données expérimentales. Cette thèse revisite la SSD actuelle en tentant de pallier ce défaut. Dans une première partie, nous présentons une méthodologie pour la prise en compte des données censurées dans la SSD et un outil web permettant d'appliquer cette méthode simplement. Dans une deuxième partie, nous proposons de modéliser l'ensemble de l'information présente dans les données expérimentales pour décrire la réponse d'une communauté exposée à un contaminant. A cet effet, nous développons une approche hiérarchique dans un paradigme bayésien. A partir d'un jeu de données décrivant l'effet de pesticides sur la croissance de diatomées, nous montrons l'intérêt de la méthode dans le cadre de l'appréciation des risques, de par sa prise en compte de la variabilité et de l'incertitude. Dans une troisième partie, nous proposons d'étendre cette approche hiérarchique pour la prise en compte de la dimension temporelle de la réponse. L'objectif de ce développement est d'affranchir autant que possible l'appréciation des risques de sa dépendance à la date de la dernière observation afin d'arriver à une description fine de son évolution et permettre une extrapolation. Cette approche est mise en œuvre à partir d'un modèle toxico-dynamique pour décrire des données d'effet de la salinité sur la survie d'espèces d'eau douceSpecies Sensitivity Distribution (SSD) is a method used by scientists and regulators from all over the world to determine the safe concentration for various contaminants stressing the environment. Although ubiquitous, this approach suffers from numerous methodological flaws, notably because it is based on incomplete use of experimental data. This thesis revisits classical SSD, attempting to overcome this shortcoming. First, we present a methodology to include censored data in SSD with a web-tool to apply it easily. Second, we propose to model all the information present in the experimental data to describe the response of a community exposed to a contaminant. To this aim, we develop a hierarchical model within a Bayesian framework. On a dataset describing the effect of pesticides on diatom growth, we illustrate how this method, accounting for variability as well as uncertainty, provides benefits to risk assessment. Third, we extend this hierarchical approach to include the temporal dimension of the community response. The objective of that development is to remove the dependence of risk assessment on the date of the last experimental observation in order to build a precise description of its time evolution and to extrapolate to longer times. This approach is build on a toxico-dynamic model and illustrated on a dataset describing the salinity tolerance of freshwater species
Книги з теми "Species distribution modelling (SDM)":
1
Ovaskainen, Otso. Joint Species Distribution Modelling. Cambridge University Press, 2020.
2
Ovaskainen, Otso, and Nerea Abrego. Joint Species Distribution Modelling: With Applications in R. Cambridge University Press, 2020.
3
Ovaskainen, Otso, and Nerea Abrego. Joint Species Distribution Modelling: With Applications in R. University of Cambridge ESOL Examinations, 2020.
4
Craig, A., Alison Darren, Abbot Catherine, R. C. Venette, and Amy Christelle. Pest Risk Modelling and Mapping for Invasive Alien Species. CABI, 2015.
5
Tebaldi, Claudia, and Richard Smith. Indirect elicitation from ecological experts: From methods and software to habitat modelling and rock-wallabies. Edited by Anthony O'Hagan and Mike West. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198703174.013.19.
Анотація:
This article focuses on techniques for eliciting expert judgement about complex uncertainties, and more specifically the habitat of the Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby. Modelling wildlife habitat requirements is important for mapping the distribution of the rock-wallaby, a threatened species, and therefore informing conservation and management. The Bayesian statistical modelling framework provides a useful ‘bridge’, from purely expert-defined models, to statistical models allowing survey data and expert knowledge to be ‘viewed as complementary, rather than alternative or competing, information sources’. The article describes the use of a rigorously designed and implemented expert elicitation for multiple experts, as well as a software tool for streamlining, automating and facilitating an indirect approach to elicitation. This approach makes it possible to infer the relationship between probability of occurrence and the environmental variables and demonstrates how expert knowledge can contribute to habitat modelling.
6
Humphreys, John, and Sally Little, eds. Challenges in Estuarine and Coastal Science. Pelagic Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.53061/bdix4458.
Анотація:
Estuarine and coastal waters are acknowledged centres for anthropogenic impacts. Superimposed on the complex natural interactions between land, rivers and sea are the myriad consequences of human activity – a spectrum ranging from locally polluting effluents to some of the severest consequences of global climate change. For practitioners, academics and students in the field of coastal science and policy, this book examines and exemplifies current and future challenges: from upper estuaries to open coasts and adjacent seas; from tropical to temperate latitudes; from Europe to Australia. This authoritative volume marks the 50th anniversary of the Estuarine and Coastal Sciences Association, and contains a prologue by founding member Professor Richard Barnes and a short history of the Association. Individual chapters then address coastal erosion and deposition; open shores to estuaries and deltas; marine plastics; coastal squeeze and habitat loss; tidal freshwaters – saline incursion and estuarine squeeze; restoration management using remote data collection; carbon storage; species distribution and non-natives; shorebirds; Modelling environmental change; physical processes such as sediments and modelling; sea level rise and estuarine tidal dynamics; estuaries as fish nurseries; policy versus reality in coastal conservation; developments in Estuarine, coastal and marine management.
7
Veech, Joseph A. Habitat Ecology and Analysis. Oxford University Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198829287.001.0001.
Анотація:
Habitat is crucial to the survival and reproduction of individual organisms as well as persistence of populations. As such, species-habitat relationships have long been studied, particularly in the field of wildlife ecology and to a lesser extent in the more encompassing discipline of ecology. The habitat requirements of a species largely determine its spatial distribution and abundance in nature. One way to recognize and appreciate the over-riding importance of habitat is to consider that a young organism must find and settle into the appropriate type of habitat as one of the first challenges of life. This process can be cast in a probabilistic framework and used to better understand the mechanisms behind habitat preferences and selection. There are at least six distinctly different statistical approaches to conducting a habitat analysis – that is, identifying and quantifying the environmental variables that a species most strongly associates with. These are (1) comparison among group means (e.g., ANOVA), (2) multiple linear regression, (3) multiple logistic regression, (4) classification and regression trees, (5) multivariate techniques (Principal Components Analysis and Discriminant Function Analysis), and (6) occupancy modelling. Each of these is lucidly explained and demonstrated by application to a hypothetical dataset. The strengths and weaknesses of each method are discussed. Given the ongoing biodiversity crisis largely caused by habitat destruction, there is a crucial and general need to better characterize and understand the habitat requirements of many different species, particularly those that are threatened and endangered.
8
Bradstock, Ross A., A. Malcolm Gill, and Richard J. Williams, eds. Flammable Australia. CSIRO Publishing, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/9780643104839.
Анотація:
In Flammable Australia: Fire Regimes, Biodiversity and Ecosystems in a Changing World, leading researchers in fire ecology and management discuss how fire regimes have shaped and will continue to shape the distribution and abundance of Australia’s highly diverse plants and animals. Central to this is the exploration of the concept of the fire regime – the cumulative pattern of fires and their individual characteristics (fire type, frequency, intensity, season) and how variation in regime components affects landscapes and their constituent biota.
Contributions by 44 authors explore a wide range of topics including classical themes such as pre-history and evolution, fire behaviour, fire regimes in key biomes, plant and animal life cycles, remote sensing and modelling of fire regimes, and emerging issues such as climate change and fire regimes, carbon dynamics and opportunities for managing fire regimes for multiple benefits.
In the face of significant global change, the conservation of our native species and ecosystems requires an understanding of the processes at play when fires and landscapes interact. This book provides a comprehensive treatment of this complex science, in the context of one of the world’s most flammable continents.
Частини книг з теми "Species distribution modelling (SDM)":
1
Barewar, Harish, Manish Kuntal Buragohain, and Suvha Lama. "Mapping the Impact of Climate Change on Eco-sensitive Hotspots Using Species Distribution Modelling (SDM): Gaps, Challenges, and Future Perspectives." In Ecosystem and Species Habitat Modeling for Conservation and Restoration, 59–86. Singapore: Springer Nature Singapore, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-0131-9_4.
2
Gillman, E., and M. Gillman. "Modelling the distribution of butterfly species." In Modelling nature: an introduction to mathematical modelling of natural systems, 147–92. Wallingford: CABI, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1079/9781786393104.0147.
3
Farashi, Azita, and Mohammad Alizadeh-Noughani. "Basic Introduction to Species Distribution Modelling." In Ecosystem and Species Habitat Modeling for Conservation and Restoration, 21–40. Singapore: Springer Nature Singapore, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-0131-9_2.
4
Botella, Christophe, Alexis Joly, Pierre Bonnet, Pascal Monestiez, and François Munoz. "A Deep Learning Approach to Species Distribution Modelling." In Multimedia Tools and Applications for Environmental & Biodiversity Informatics, 169–99. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-76445-0_10.
5
Agbezuge, Eric Yaw, and P. Balakrishnan. "Application of Species Distribution Modelling in Agriculture: A Review." In Proceedings of Data Analytics and Management, 173–88. Singapore: Springer Nature Singapore, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-6547-2_14.
6
Hershey, Rachel Riemann, Martin A. Ramirez, and David A. Drake. "Using Geostatistical Techniques to Map The Distribution of Tree Species From Ground Inventory Data." In Modelling Longitudinal and Spatially Correlated Data, 187–98. New York, NY: Springer New York, 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-0699-6_16.
7
Bioco, João, Paula Prata, Fernando Canovas, and Paulo Fazendeiro. "On the Modelling of Species Distribution: Logistic Regression Versus Density Probability Function." In Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, 378–91. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-10464-0_25.
8
Hudson, Irene L., Susan W. Kim, and Marie R. Keatley. "Modelling the Flowering of Four Eucalypt Species Using New Mixture Transition Distribution Models." In Phenological Research, 299–320. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3335-2_14.
9
Osborne, Patrick E., and Philip J. Seddon. "Selecting Suitable Habitats for Reintroductions: Variation, Change and the Role of Species Distribution Modelling." In Reintroduction Biology, 73–104. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781444355833.ch3.
10
Bushi, Dhoni, Oyi Dai Nimasow, and Gibji Nimasow. "Modelling the Distribution of a Medicinal Plant Oroxylum indicum (L.) Kurz for Its Conservation in Arunachal Pradesh." In Ecosystem and Species Habitat Modeling for Conservation and Restoration, 213–26. Singapore: Springer Nature Singapore, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-0131-9_11.
Тези доповідей конференцій з теми "Species distribution modelling (SDM)":
1
Zhang, Jian, and Sen Li. "A Review of Machine Learning Based Species' Distribution Modelling." In 2017 International Conference on Industrial Informatics - Computing Technology, Intelligent Technology, Industrial Information Integration (ICIICII). IEEE, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/iciicii.2017.76.
2
"Species distribution modelling for conservation planning in Victoria of Australia." In 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand (MSSANZ), Inc., 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2011.e11.liu.
3
Real, Raimundo, and Alba Estrada. "A stepwise assessment of parsimony and entropy in species distribution modelling." In Entropy 2021: The Scientific Tool of the 21st Century. Basel, Switzerland: MDPI, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/entropy2021-09790.
4
"Sensitivity analysis to configuration option settings in a selection of species distribution modelling algorithms." In 22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand (MSSANZ), Inc., 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2017.a1.hallgren.
5
"Implementing best practices and a workflow for modelling the geospatial distribution of migratory species." In 22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand (MSSANZ), Inc., 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2017.c3.santana.
6
"Experimenting with modelling via a virtual laboratory: Evaluating pseudo-absence strategies to refine a species distribution model." In 22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand (MSSANZ), Inc., 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2017.g8.lowchoy.
7
El Alaoui, Omar, and Ali Idri. "Heterogeneous Ensemble Learning for Modelling Species Distribution: A Case Study of Redstarts Habitat Suitability." In 12th International Conference on Data Science, Technology and Applications. SCITEPRESS - Science and Technology Publications, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.5220/0012118100003541.
8
Miyaji, Renato O., and Pedro L. P. Corrêa. "Handling uncertainty through Bayesian inference for Species Distribution Modelling in the Amazon Basin region." In Encontro Nacional de Inteligência Artificial e Computacional. Sociedade Brasileira de Computação - SBC, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.5753/eniac.2021.18243.
Анотація:
Uma das ferramentas mais utilizadas para o monitoramento da biodiversidade é a modelagem de distribuição de espécies. Para a sua aplicação, é necessário possuir uma grande base de dados confiáveis a respeito da ocorrência de espécies. Entretanto, essa condição não é satisfeita quando existem poucos registros de ocorrência. Nesse contexto, podem ser aplicadas técnicas de tratamento de incertezas. Assim, este trabalho buscou utilizar a abordagem Bayesiana para permitir a modelagem de distribuição de espécies na região da Bacia Amazônica próxima a Manaus (AM), com base em dados coletados pelo projeto GoAmazon 2014/15. Os resultados foram comparados com os resultantes de técnicas clássicas, obtendo desempenhos semelhantes.
9
"The sensitivity of species distribution models to new data and the utility of putting uncertainty on the map." In 25th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2023.clemens.
10
Fukuda, Shinji. "Effects of data prevalence on species distribution modelling using a genetic takagi-sugeno fuzzy system." In 2013 IEEE International Workshop on Genetic and Evolutionary Fuzzy Systems (GEFS). IEEE, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/gefs.2013.6601051.
Звіти організацій з теми "Species distribution modelling (SDM)":
1
Weldon, James, and Carlotta Meriggi. Modelling the risks of invasive aquatic species spread in Swedish lakes. Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.54612/a.r68r25qcb1.
Анотація:
Species distribution modelling is a valuable tool for identifying areas most at risk of the spread of invasive species. Here we model the environmental factors governing the distributions of two invasive species of concern that are currently found in Sweden at only a limited number of locations: the aquatic macrophyte Elodea nuttallii (Nuttall’s waterweed / smal vattenpest) and the bivalve Dreissena polymorpha (Zebra mussel / vandrarmussla). For E.nuttallii, the greatest risk factors are connectivity with other water bodies (facilitating dispersion), human population density and length of growing season. This implies that it is principally well-connected lakes in populated areas of southern Sweden that are most at risk of further spread (although other areas of concern are identified). For D.polymorpha, water alkalinity and the proportion of agricultural land (a source of nutrient pollution) are the most important factors, and the models identify lakes Vänern and Vättern, waters in parts of Östergötland, Jämtland and Gotland as key areas of concern for further spread.
2
Aguilar, G., H. Waqa-Sakiti, and L. Winder. Using Predicted Locations and an Ensemble Approach to Address Sparse Data Sets for Species Distribution Modelling: Long-horned Beetles (Cerambycidae) of the Fiji Islands. Unitec ePress, December 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.34074/book.008.
Анотація:
In response to unique species in Fiji which are threatened or endangered, and in critical need of effective conservation measures to ensure their survival, author Glenn Aguilar has produced an eMedia publication and learning research tool, called GIS For Conservation.The eMedia website hosts tutorial material, videos and modelling results for conservation management and planning purposes. Users will learn spatial analytical skills, species distribution modelling and other relevant GIS tools, as well as enhance ArcMap skills and the species distribution modelling tool Maxent. Accompanying the GIS For Conservation website is a peer-reviewed research report. The report details the case study and research methods that have informed the eMedia publication, focusing on the development of maps predicting the suitability of the Fiji Islands for longhorned beetles (Cerambycidae) that include endemic and endangered species such as the Giant Fijian Beetle Xixuthrus heros.
3
Aguilar, Glenn, Dan Blanchon, Hamish Foote, Christina Pollonais, and Asia Mosee. Queensland Fruit Fly Invasion of New Zealand: Predicting Area Suitability Under Future Climate Change Scenarios. Unitec ePress, October 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.34074/pibs.rs22015.
Анотація:
The Queensland fruit fly (Bactrocera tryoni) is a significant horticultural pest in Australia, and has also established in other parts of the Pacific. There is a significant risk to New Zealand of invasion by this species, and several recent incursions have occurred. The potential effects of climate change on the distribution and impacts of invasive species are well known. This paper uses species distribution modelling using Maxent to predict the suitability of New Zealand to the Queensland fruit fly based on known occurrences worldwide and Bioclim climatic layers. Under current climatic conditions the majority of the country was generally in the lower range, with some areas in the medium range. Suitability prediction maps under future climate change conditions in 2050 and 2070, at lower emission (RCP 2.6) and higher emission (RCP 8.5) scenarios generally show an increase in suitability in both the North and South Islands. Calculations of the shift of suitable areas show a general movement of the centroid towards the south-east, with the higher emission scenario showing a greater magnitude of movement.
4
Transformational adaptation of key root and tuber crops in Asia: Assessing crop suitability amidst climate change by species distribution modelling. International Potato Center, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.4160/9789290605300.