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Статті в журналах з теми "Scenarios generation strategy":
1
Gao, Feng, Jianli Duan, Yingdong He, and Zilong Wang. "A Test Scenario Automatic Generation Strategy for Intelligent Driving Systems." Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2019 (January 15, 2019): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/3737486.
Анотація:
In this paper, a methodology of automatic generation of test scenarios for intelligent driving systems is proposed, which is based on the combination of the test matrix (TM) and combinatorial testing (CT) methods together. With a hierarchical model of influence factors, an evaluation index for scenario complexity is designed. Then an improved CT algorithm is proposed to make a balance between test efficiency, condition coverage, and scenario complexity. This method can ensure the required combinational coverage and at the same time increase the overall complexity of generated scenarios, which is not considered by CT. Furthermore, the way to find the best compromise between efficiency and complexity and the bound of scenario number has been analyzed theoretically. To validate the effectiveness, it has been applied in the hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) test of a lane departure warning system (LDW). The results show that the proposed method can ensure required coverage with a significantly improved scenario complexity, and the generated test scenario can find system defects more efficiently.
2
Tian, Zhe, Chuang Ye, Jie Zhu, Jide Niu, and Yakai Lu. "Accelerating Optimal Control Strategy Generation for HVAC Systems Using a Scenario Reduction Method: A Case Study." Energies 16, no. 7 (March 24, 2023): 2988. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en16072988.
Анотація:
Learning an optimal control strategy from the optimized operating dataset is a feasible way to improve the operational efficiency of HVAC systems. The operation dataset is the key to ensuring the global optimality and universality of the operation strategy. Currently, the model-based method is commonly used to generate datasets that cover all operating scenarios throughout the cooling season. However, thousands of iterative optimizations of the model also lead to high computational costs. Therefore, this paper proposed a scenario reduction method in which similar operating scenarios were grouped into clusters to significantly reduce the number of optimization calculations. First, k-means clustering (with dry-bulb temperature, wet-bulb temperature, and cooling load as features) was used to select typical scenarios from operating scenarios for the entire cooling season. Second, the model-based optimization was performed with the typical scenarios to generate the optimal operating dataset. Taking a railway station in Beijing as a case study, the results show that the optimization time for the typical scenarios was only 1.4 days, which was reduced by 93.1% compared with the 20.6 days required to optimize the complete cooling season scenario. The optimal control rules were extracted, respectively, from the above datasets generated under the two schemes, and the results show that the deviation of energy saving rate was only 0.45%. This study shows that the scenario reduction method can significantly speed up the generation of the optimal control strategy dataset while ensuring the energy-saving effect.
3
Cai, Jinkang, Weiwen Deng, Ying Wang, Haoran Guang, Jiangkun Li, and Juan Ding. "Boundary Scenario Generation for HAVs Based on Classification and Local Sampling." Machines 11, no. 4 (March 27, 2023): 426. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/machines11040426.
Анотація:
High-level Automated Vehicles (HAVs) are expected to improve traffic safety significantly. However, verifying and evaluating HAVs remains an open problem. Scenario-based testing is a promising method for HAV testing. Boundary scenarios exist around the performance boundary between critical and non-critical scenarios. Testing HAVs in these boundary scenarios is crucial to investigate why collisions cannot be avoided due to small changes in scenario parameters. This study proposes a methodology to generate diverse boundary scenarios to test HAVs. First, an approach is proposed to obtain at least one High-Performance Classifier (HPC) based on two classification algorithms that iteratively guide each other to find uncertain scenarios to improve their performance. Then, the HPC is exploited to find candidate scenarios highly likely to be boundary scenarios. To increase the efficiency of candidate scenario generation, a strategy based on local sampling is presented to find more diverse candidate scenarios based on a small number of them. Numerical experiments show that the HPCs acquired by the method proposed in this study can achieve a classification accuracy of 98% and 99% for random car-following and cut-in scenarios, respectively. Moreover, more than 86% of 271,744 candidate cut-in scenarios derived by local sampling are near the performance boundary.
4
Sapitang, Michelle, Wanie M. Ridwan, Khairul Faizal Kushiar, Ali Najah Ahmed, and Ahmed El-Shafie. "Machine Learning Application in Reservoir Water Level Forecasting for Sustainable Hydropower Generation Strategy." Sustainability 12, no. 15 (July 30, 2020): 6121. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12156121.
Анотація:
The aim of this study is to accurately forecast the changes in water level of a reservoir located in Malaysia with two different scenarios; Scenario 1 (SC1) includes rainfall and water level as input and Scenario 2 (SC2) includes rainfall, water level, and sent out. Different time horizons (one day ahead to seven days) will be investigated to check the accuracy of the proposed models. In this study, four supervised machine learning algorithms for both scenarios were proposed such as Boosted Decision Tree Regression (BDTR), Decision Forest Regression (DFR), Bayesian Linear Regression (BLR) and Neural Network Regression (NNR). Eighty percent of the total data were used for training the datasets while 20% for the dataset used for testing. The models’ performance is evaluated using five statistical indexes; the Correlation Coefficient (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Relative Absolute Error (RAE), and Relative Squared Error (RSE). The findings showed that among the four proposed models, the BLR model outperformed other models with R2 0.998952 (1-day ahead) for SC1 and BDTR for SC2 with R2 0.99992 (1-day ahead). With regards to the uncertainty analysis, 95PPU and d-factors were adopted to measure the uncertainties of the best models (BLR and BDTR). The results showed the value of 95PPU for both models in both scenarios (SC1 and SC2) fall into the range between 80% to 100%. As for the d-factor, all values in SC1 and SC2 fall below one.
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Freitas, Patrícia F. S., Leonardo H. Macedo, and Rubén Romero. "A strategy for transmission network expansion planning considering multiple generation scenarios." Electric Power Systems Research 172 (July 2019): 22–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epsr.2019.02.018.
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Azad, Abdus Salam, Edward Kim, Qiancheng Wu, Kimin Lee, Ion Stoica, Pieter Abbeel, Alberto Sangiovanni-Vincentelli, and Sanjit A. Seshia. "Programmatic Modeling and Generation of Real-Time Strategic Soccer Environments for Reinforcement Learning." Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence 36, no. 6 (June 28, 2022): 6028–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v36i6.20549.
Анотація:
The capability of a reinforcement learning (RL) agent heavily depends on the diversity of the learning scenarios generated by the environment. Generation of diverse realistic scenarios is challenging for real-time strategy (RTS) environments. The RTS environments are characterized by intelligent entities/non-RL agents cooperating and competing with the RL agents with large state and action spaces over a long period of time, resulting in an infinite space of feasible, but not necessarily realistic, scenarios involving complex interaction among different RL and non-RL agents. Yet, most of the existing simulators rely on randomly generating the environments based on predefined settings/layouts and offer limited flexibility and control over the environment dynamics for researchers to generate diverse, realistic scenarios as per their demand. To address this issue, for the first time, we formally introduce the benefits of adopting an existing formal scenario specification language, SCENIC, to assist researchers to model and generate diverse scenarios in an RTS environment in a flexible, systematic, and programmatic manner. To showcase the benefits, we interfaced SCENIC to an existing RTS environment Google Research Football (GRF) simulator and introduced a benchmark consisting of 32 realistic scenarios, encoded in SCENIC, to train RL agents and testing their generalization capabilities. We also show how researchers/RL practitioners can incorporate their domain knowledge to expedite the training process by intuitively modeling stochastic programmatic policies with SCENIC.
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Düspohl, Meike, and Petra Döll. "Causal networks and scenarios: participatory strategy development for promoting renewable electricity generation." Journal of Cleaner Production 121 (May 2016): 218–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.09.117.
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Chen, Wengang, Ying Zhang, Jiajia Chen, and Bingyin Xu. "Pricing Mechanism and Trading Strategy Optimization for Microgrid Cluster Based on CVaR Theory." Electronics 12, no. 20 (October 18, 2023): 4327. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/electronics12204327.
Анотація:
With the increasing penetration rate of renewable energy generation, the uncertainty of renewable energy output in microgrid cluster (MGC) leads to significant fluctuations in transaction volume, which may lead to the risk of transaction default. This paper proposes a day-ahead two layer trading model for microgrid cluster based on price trading mechanism and Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) theory. Firstly, the upper-layer establishes an objective to minimize the overall power fluctuation of the microgrid cluster using Demand response (DR) with a penalty mechanism. The microgrid cluster adopts an internal pricing mechanism and adjusts transaction prices based on internal supply-demand conditions to guide microgrids’ participation in intracluster trading, thereby encouraging the microgrid to use the flexible resources to reduce power fluctuation. Secondly, the lower-layer optimization establishes an optimization model with the objective of minimizing the comprehensive operating cost of the microgrid cluster. The model employs backward scenario reduction techniques to obtain multiple sets of typical scenarios for renewable energy generation, and the CVaR theory is introduced to quantify the potential risk of transaction default. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed models is verified through case studies considering various application scenarios.
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Pašičko, Robert, Zoran Stanić, and Nenad Debrecin. "Modelling Sustainable Development Scenarios of Croatian Power System." Journal of Electrical Engineering 61, no. 3 (May 1, 2010): 157–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/v10187-010-0022-7.
Анотація:
Modelling Sustainable Development Scenarios of Croatian Power SystemThe main objective of power system sustainable development is to provide the security of electricity supply required to underpin economic growth and increase the quality of living while minimizing adverse environmental impacts. New challenges such as deregulation, liberalization of energy markets, increased competition on energy markets, growing demands on security of supply, price insecurities and demand to cut CO2 emissions, are calling for better understanding of electrical systems modelling. Existing models are not sufficient anymore and planners will need to think differently in order to face these challenges. Such a model, on the basis on performed simulations, should enable planner to distinguish between different options and to analyze sustainability of these options. PLEXOS is an electricity market simulation model, used for modeling electrical system in Croatia since 2005. Within this paper, generation expansion scenarios until 2020 developed for Croatian Energy Strategy and modeled in PLEXOS. Development of sustainable Croatian energy scenario was analyzed in the paper - impacts of CO2 emission price and wind generation. Energy Strategy sets goal for 1200 MW from wind power plants in 2020. In order to fully understand its impacts, intermittent nature of electricity generation from wind power plant was modeled. We conclude that electrical system modelling using everyday growing models has proved to be inevitable for sustainable electrical system planning in complex environment in which power plants operate today.
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Langholtz, Matthew, Ingrid Busch, Abishek Kasturi, Michael R. Hilliard, Joanna McFarlane, Costas Tsouris, Srijib Mukherjee, et al. "The Economic Accessibility of CO2 Sequestration through Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) in the US." Land 9, no. 9 (August 27, 2020): 299. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/land9090299.
Анотація:
Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is one strategy to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. To assess the potential scale and cost of CO2 sequestration from BECCS in the US, this analysis models carbon sequestration net of supply chain emissions and costs of biomass production, delivery, power generation, and CO2 capture and sequestration in saline formations. The analysis includes two biomass supply scenarios (near-term and long-term), two biomass logistics scenarios (conventional and pelletized), and two generation technologies (pulverized combustion and integrated gasification combined cycle). Results show marginal cost per tonne CO2 (accounting for costs of electricity and CO2 emissions of reference power generation scenarios) as a function of CO2 sequestered (simulating capture of up to 90% of total CO2 sequestration potential) and associated spatial distribution of resources and generation locations for the array of scenario options. Under a near-term scenario using up to 206 million tonnes per year of biomass, up to 181 million tonnes CO2 can be sequestered annually at scenario-average costs ranging from $62 to $137 per tonne CO2; under a long-term scenario using up to 740 million tonnes per year of biomass, up to 737 million tonnes CO2 can be sequestered annually at scenario-average costs ranging from $42 to $92 per tonne CO2. These estimates of CO2 sequestration potential may be reduced if future competing demand reduces resource availability or may be increased if displaced emissions from conventional power sources are included. Results suggest there are large-scale opportunities to implement BECCS at moderate cost in the US, particularly in the Midwest, Plains States, and Texas.
Дисертації з теми "Scenarios generation strategy":
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Brands, Christian. "Scenario-based strategic planning and strategic management in family firms." Doctoral thesis, Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2013. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-125931.
Анотація:
This cumulative dissertation covers the concepts of scenario-based strategic planning and strategic management in family firms over five articles. The first article gives an overview of the cumulative dissertation explaining the research gap, approach and contribution of the dissertation.
The paper highlights the two research areas covered by the dissertation with two articles focusing on scenario-based strategic planning and two on strategic management in family firms.
The second article is the first of two focusing on scenario-based strategic planning. It introduces and describes a set of six tools facilitating the implementation of scenario-based strategic planning in corporate practice. The third paper adapts these tools to the financial management and
controlling context in private companies highlighting the tools’ flexibility in managing uncertain and volatile environments. The fourth article is the first of two focusing on strategic management in family firms. It analyzes organizational ambidexterity as a factor explaining family firm performance. The article shows that a high level of organizational ambidexterity in family firms leads to a higher family firm performance. The final paper concludes the dissertation examining the tendency of family firms to focus on capability exploration or resource exploitation over different generations managing the family firm.
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Koné, Tchoya Florence. "Contribution à la démonstration de la sécurité du véhicule autonome, basée sur une stratégie de génération de scénarios, modélisée par niveaux d’abstraction et orientée par la sensibilité du VA, pour une validation par simulation." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Université de Lorraine, 2021. http://www.theses.fr/2021LORR0182.
Анотація:
Cette thèse CIFRE, réalisé au sein de Stellantis, fournit une stratégie de génération de scénarios, modélisée par niveaux d’abstraction et orientée par la sensibilité du VA, pour une validation par simulation. Ce travail s’inscrit dans le périmètre du standard ISO PAS 21448 /SOTIF (Safety Of The Intended Functionality). Pour ce faire, la démarche suivie s’articule autour de cinq contributions : (1) Une analyse de l’architecture fonctionnelle du VA et la mise en évidence des challenges liés à la validation de sa sécurité : aspects normatifs, chaines de simulation, la présence d’incertitude dans l’environnement opérationnel du VA. (2) La proposition d’un cadre conceptuel (modèle de connaissance) sur lequel s’appuiera la méthodologie de génération des scénarios qui sera proposée par la suite. (3) Une synthèse sur les indicateurs manipulés dans la littérature, ainsi que ceux, que nous retiendrons dans notre stratégie de génération finale dont notamment l’indicateur de sensibilité. Elle donne également une structure du système de génération des scénarios et de validation par simulation de la sécurité du VA, ainsi que la manière dont les indicateurs seront exploités dans cette structure. (4) La proposition d’une heuristique de génération des scénarios et l’estimation de l’indicateur de risque associé au VA. Cette quatrième contribution, s’appuie sur les éléments développés dans les contributions précédentes : le modèle conceptuel proposé (contribution 2), la structure du système de génération et de validation ainsi que les indicateurs associés (contribution 3). (5) Enfin, la dernière contribution est une implémentation des propositions précédentes via un cas d’étude.Mots clés : Véhicule Autonome (VA), SOTIF (Safety Of The Intended Functionality), Limitation de performances fonctionnelles, Insuffisances fonctionnelles, Scénarios critiques, Métrique de sensibilité, Stratégie de génération de scénarios, Validation par simulationThis CIFRE thesis, carried out within Stellantis, provides a scenario generation strategy, modelled by levels of abstraction and oriented by the sensitivity of the AV, for a simulation-based validation process. This work is within the scope of the ISO PAS 21448 /SOTIF (Safety Of The Intended Functionality) standard.To do this, the approach followed is based on five contributions: (1) An analysis of the functional architecture of the AV and the highlighting of the challenges related to its safety validation: normative aspects, simulation chains, the presence of uncertainty in the operational environment of the AV. (2) The proposal of a conceptual framework (knowledge model) on which the scenario generation methodology to be proposed later will be based. (3) A summary of the indicators used in the literature, as well as those that we will use in our final generation strategy, including the sensitivity indicator. It also gives a structure of the system of scenario generation and simulation based validation of the safety of the AV, as well as the way in which the indicators will be exploited in this structure. (4) The proposal of a scenario generation heuristic and the estimation of the risk indicator associated with the AV. This fourth contribution is based on the elements developed in the previous contributions: the proposed conceptual model (contribution 2), the structure of the generation and validation system and the associated indicators (contribution 3). (5) Finally, the last contribution is an implementation of the previous proposals via a case study.Keywords: Autonomous Vehicle (AV), Safety Of The Intended Functionality (SOTIF), Functional performance limitation, Functional insufficiencies, Critical scenarios, Sensitivity metric, Scenarios generation strategy, Simulation-based Validation process
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PANTINI, SARA. "Analysis and modelling of leachate and gas generation at landfill sites focused on mechanically-biologically treated waste." Doctoral thesis, Università degli Studi di Roma "Tor Vergata", 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2108/203393.
Анотація:
Despite significant efforts have been directed toward reducing waste generation and encouraging alternative waste management strategies, landfills still remain the main option for Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) disposal in many countries. Hence, landfills and related impacts on the surroundings are still current issues throughout the world. Actually, the major concerns are related to the potential emissions of leachate and landfill gas into the environment, that pose a threat to public health, surface and groundwater pollution, soil contamination and global warming effects. To ensure environmental protection and enhance landfill sustainability, modern sanitary landfills are equipped with several engineered systems with different functions. For instance, the installation of containment systems, such as bottom liner and multi-layers capping systems, is aimed at reducing leachate seepage and water infiltration into the landfill body as well as gas migration, while eventually mitigating methane emissions through the placement of active oxidation layers (biocovers). Leachate collection and removal systems are designed to minimize water head forming on the bottom section of the landfill and consequent seepages through the liner system. Finally, gas extraction and utilization systems, allow to recover energy from landfill gas while reducing explosion and fire risks associated with methane accumulation, even though much depends on gas collection efficiency achieved in the field (range: 60-90% Spokas et al., 2006; Huitric and Kong, 2006). Hence, impacts on the surrounding environment caused by the polluting substances released from the deposited waste through liquid and gas emissions can be potentially mitigated by a proper design of technical barriers and collection/extraction systems at the landfill site. Nevertheless, the long-term performance of containment systems to limit the landfill emissions is highly uncertain and is strongly dependent on site-specific conditions such as climate, vegetative covers, containment systems, leachate quality and applied stress. Furthermore, the design and operation of leachate collection and treatment systems, of landfill gas extraction and utilization projects, as well as the assessment of appropriate methane reduction
strategies (biocovers), require reliable emission forecasts for the assessment of system feasibility and to ensure environmental compliance. To this end, landfill simulation models can represent an useful supporting tool for a better design of leachate/gas collection and treatment systems and can provide valuable information for the evaluation of best options for containment systems depending on their performances under the site-specific conditions. The capability in predicting future emissions levels at a landfill site can also be improved by combining simulation models with field observations at full-scale landfills and/or with experimental studies resembling landfill conditions. Indeed, this kind of data may allow to identify the main parameters and processes governing leachate and gas generation and can provide useful information for model refinement.
In view of such need, the present research study was initially addressed to develop a new landfill screening model that, based on simplified mathematical and empirical equations, provides quantitative estimation of leachate and gas production over time, taking into account for site-specific conditions, waste properties and main landfill characteristics and processes. In order to evaluate the applicability of the developed model and the accuracy of emissions forecast, several simulations on four full-scale landfills, currently in operative management stage, were carried out. The results of these case studies showed a good correspondence of leachate estimations with monthly trend observed in the field and revealed that the reliability of model predictions is strongly influenced by the quality of input data. In particular, the initial waste moisture content and the waste compression index, which are usually data not available from a standard characterisation, were identified as the key unknown parameters affecting leachate production. Furthermore, the applicability of the model to closed landfills was evaluated by simulating different alternative capping systems and by comparing the results with those returned by the Hydrological Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP), which is the most worldwide used model for comparative analysis of composite liner systems. Despite the simplified approach of the developed model, simulated values of infiltration and leakage rates through the analysed cover systems were in line with those of HELP.
However, it should be highlighted that the developed model provides an assessment of leachate and biogas production only from a quantitative point of view. The leachate and biogas composition was indeed not included in the forecast model, as strongly linked to the type of waste that makes the prediction in a screening phase poorly representative of what could be expected in the field. Hence, for a qualitative analysis of leachate and gas emissions over time, a laboratory methodology including different type of lab-scale tests was applied to a particular waste material. Specifically, the research was focused on mechanically biologically treated (MBT) wastes which, after the introduction of the European Landfill Directive 1999/31/EC (European Commission, 1999) that imposes member states to dispose of in landfills only wastes that have been preliminary subjected to treatment, are becoming the main flow waste landfilled in new Italian facilities. However, due to the relatively recent introduction of the MBT plants within the waste management system, very few data on leachate and gas emissions from MBT waste in landfills are available and, hence, the current knowledge mainly results from laboratory studies. Nevertheless, the assessment of the leaching characteristics of MBT materials and the evaluation of how the environmental conditions may affect the heavy metals mobility are still poorly investigated in literature. To gain deeper insight on the fundamental mechanisms governing the constituents release from MBT wastes, several leaching experiments were performed on MBT samples collected from an Italian MBT plant and the experimental results were modelled to obtain information on the long-term leachate emissions. Namely, a combination of experimental leaching tests were performed on fully-characterized MBT waste samples and the effect of different parameters, mainly pH and liquid to solid ratio (L/S,) on the compounds release was investigated by combining pH static-batch test, pH dependent tests and dynamic up-flow column percolation experiments. The obtained results showed that, even though MBT wastes were characterized by relatively high heavy metals content, only a limited amount was actually soluble and thus bioavailable. Furthermore, the information provided by the different tests highlighted the existence of a strong linear correlation between the release pattern of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and several metals (Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, V, Zn), suggesting that complexation to DOC is the leaching controlling mechanism of these elements. Thus, combining the results of batch and up-flow column percolation tests, partition coefficients between DOC and metals concentration were derived. These data, coupled with a simplified screening model for DOC release, allowed to get a very good prediction of metal release during the experiments and may
provide useful indications for the evaluation of long-term emissions from this type of waste in a landfill disposal scenario.
In order to complete the study on the MBT waste environmental behaviour, gas emissions from MBT waste were examined by performing different anaerobic tests. The main purpose of this study was to evaluate the potential gas generation capacity of wastes and to assess possible implications on gas generation resulting from the different environmental conditions expected in the field. To this end, anaerobic batch tests were performed at a wide range of water contents (26-43 %w/w up to 75 %w/w on wet weight) and temperatures (from 20-25 °C up to 55 °C) in order to simulate different landfill management options (dry tomb or bioreactor landfills). In nearly all test conditions, a quite long lag-phase was observed (several months) due to the inhibition effects resulting from high concentrations of volatile fatty acids (VFAs) and ammonia that highlighted a poor stability degree of the analysed material. Furthermore, experimental results showed that the initial waste water content is the key factor limiting the anaerobic biological process. Indeed, when the waste moisture was lower than 32 %w/w the methanogenic microbial activity was completely inhibited. Overall, the obtained results indicated that the operative conditions drastically affect the gas generation from MBT waste, in terms of both gas yield and generation rate. This suggests that particular caution should be paid when using the results of lab-scale tests for the evaluation of long-term behaviour expected in the field, where the boundary conditions change continuously and vary significantly depending on the climate, the landfill operative management strategies in place (e.g. leachate recirculation, waste disposal methods), the hydraulic characteristics of buried waste, the presence and type of temporary and final cover systems.
Книги з теми "Scenarios generation strategy":
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K, Davis Paul. Enhancing strategic planning with massive scenario generation: Theory and experiments. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2007.
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Kozhevina, Ol'ga, and Natal'ya Salienko. Strategic change management. ru: INFRA-M Academic Publishing LLC., 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/1045608.
Анотація:
The textbook is developed on the basis of competence-based and interdisciplinary approaches, contains theoretical foundations for the formation, change, development and improvement of organization management systems in a dynamic environment, as well as methodological aspects of the development and practical implementation of strategic changes. The publication examines the features of strategic changes, the technology of change management, reflects the models and principles of organizational changes, defines the prerequisites for the development of scenarios for the development of the organization, factors, conditions and mechanisms for the implementation of the change management strategy in the organization.
The publication fully complies with the requirements of the federal state educational standards of higher education of the latest generation.
It is intended for students studying in the areas of training 38.03.02 "Management", 38.03.03 "Personnel Management", 38.03.04 "State and municipal management". It will also be useful for students of MBA programs, advanced training courses and professional training of managerial personnel, senior students of economic specialties of universities, graduate students, teachers, practitioners and anyone interested in the problems of effective development of organizations based on the approach of organizational change.
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Davis, Paul K. Enhancing Strategic Planning with Massive Scenario Generation: Theory and Experiments. RAND Corporation, 2007.
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Buzan, Barry, and Evelyn Goh. Rethinking Sino-Japanese Alienation. Oxford University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198851387.001.0001.
Анотація:
Bitterly contested memories of war, colonization and empire among Japan, China, and Korea have increasingly threatened regional order and security over the three decades since the 1980s. In Sino-Japanese relations, identity, territory, and power pull together in a particularly lethal direction, generating dangerous tensions in both geopolitical and memory rivalries. Buzan and Goh explore a new approach to dealing with this history problem, first, by constructing a more balanced and global view of their shared history, and second, by sketching out the possibilities for a great power bargain in Northeast Asia. The book first puts Northeast Asia’s history since 1840 into both a world historical and a systematic normative context, exposing the parochial nature of the history debate in relation to what is a bigger shared story. It then explores the conditions under which China and Japan have been able to reach strategic bargains in the course of their long historical relationship, and uses this to sketch out the main modes of agreement that might underpin a new contemporary great power bargain between them in four future scenarios for the region. The frameworks adopted here consciously blend historical contextualization; enduring concerns with wealth, power, and interest; and the complex relationship between Northeast Asian states’ evolving encounters with each other and with global international society.
Частини книг з теми "Scenarios generation strategy":
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Hosseini, SeyedVahid, Ali Izadi, Afsaneh Sadat Boloorchi, Seyed Hossein Madani, Yong Chen, and Mahmoud Chizari. "Optimal Design of Environmental-Friendly Hybrid Power Generation System." In Springer Proceedings in Energy, 171–77. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-63916-7_22.
Анотація:
AbstractCombination of both renewable and fuel-based generation systems is an advantageous approach to develop off-grid distributed power plants. This approach requires evaluation of the techno-economic potential of each source in a selected site as well as optimization of load sharing strategy between them. Development of a remote hybrid power plant in an off-grid area is the interest of this study. Defining all available combinations, characteristics of performance, cost and availability of them evaluated. Applying constraints, multi-objective target domain based on load following and Levelized Cost of Electricity is established in which by utilizing Pareto front approach, optimized scenarios is achieved.
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Sardesai, Saskia, Markus Stute, and Josef Kamphues. "A Methodology for Future Scenario Planning." In Lecture Notes in Management and Industrial Engineering, 35–59. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-63505-3_2.
Анотація:
AbstractThe future is influenced by various possible developments and is hence difficult to predict. Still, each company or institution bases its vision and strategic progress on certain assumptions for the future. In order to prepare for various developments of the future, it is reasonable to consider different possible scenarios while building a future vision. Thus, this chapter focuses on the methodological approach for the generation of future scenarios showing what the surroundings for supply chains might be like in a time horizon until 2030. This integrates various political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental influences and changes. The methodological framework required for generating scenarios is set by a combination of quantitative and qualitative scenario planning methodologies. Close coordination and collaboration between production and logistics guides the underlying scenario design to focus the context on supply chains. While considering trends described in Kalaitzi et al. 2020, this approach results in a set of macro scenarios, each describing a possible future development until 2030. The macro scenarios range from scenarios with progressive developments to regressing or stagnating evolutions.
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Sheriff, R. E., and M. Mohorcic. "Strategic Scenarios and Feasibility Studies." In Satellite Personal Communications for Future-generation Systems, 5–22. London: Springer London, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-0131-4_2.
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Kim, Yeowon, Lelani M. Mannetti, David M. Iwaniec, Nancy B. Grimm, Marta Berbés-Blázquez, and Samuel Markolf. "Social, Ecological, and Technological Strategies for Climate Adaptation." In Resilient Urban Futures, 29–45. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-63131-4_3.
Анотація:
AbstractResilient cities are able to persist, grow, and even transform while keeping their essential identities in the face of external forces like climatechange, which threatens lives, livelihoods, and the structures and processes of the urban environment (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, How to make cities more resilient: a handbook for local government leaders. Switzerland, Geneva, 2017). Scenario development is a novel approach to visioning resilient futures for cities. As an instrument for synthesizing data and envisioning urban futures, scenarios combine diverse datasets such as biophysical models, stakeholder perspectives, and demographic information (Carpenter et al. Ecol Soc 20:10, 2015). As a tool to envision alternative futures, participatoryscenario development explores, identifies, and evaluates potential outcomes and tradeoffs associated with the management of social–ecological change, incorporating multiple stakeholder’s collaborative subjectivity (Galafassi et al. Ecol Soc 22:2, 2017). Understanding the current landscape of city planning and governance approaches is important in developing city-specific scenarios. In particular, assessing municipal planning strategies through the lens of interactive social–ecological–technological systems (SETS) provides useful insight into the dynamics and interrelationships of these coupled systems (da Silva et al. Sustain Dev 4(2):125–145, 2012). An assessment of existing municipal strategies can also be used to inform future adaptation scenarios and strategic plans addressing extreme weather events. With the scenario development process guiding stakeholders in generating goals and visions through participatory workshops, the content analysis of governance planning documents from the SETS perspective provides key insight on specific strategies that have been considered (or overlooked) in cities. In this chapter, we (a) demonstrate an approach to examine how cities define and prioritize climate adaptation strategies in their governance planning documents, (b) examine how governance strategies address current and future climate vulnerabilities as exemplified by nine cities in North and Latin America where we conducted a content analysis of municipal planning documents, and (c) suggest a codebook to explore the diverse SETS strategies proposed to address climate challenges—specifically related to extreme weather events such as heat, drought, and flooding.
5
Poirier, Achille, Raphaël Oger, and Cléa Martinez. "A Scenario Generation Method Exploring Uncertainty and Decision Spaces for Robust Strategic Supply Chain Capacity Planning." In Innovative Intelligent Industrial Production and Logistics, 126–48. Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-49339-3_8.
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De Martino, Paolo. "Towards Circular Port–City Territories." In Regenerative Territories, 161–71. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-78536-9_10.
Анотація:
AbstractPort and city authorities all over Europe and beyond are striving with finding solutions able to combine sustainability with economic growth. Several global urgencies in fact, such as climate change, energy transition, the exponential changes in the scale of ports and ships and last but not least the economic and health shock related to the coronavirus pandemic, are challenging the spaces where ports physically meet their cities, generating processes of caesura within the urban patterns with consequent impacts on the quality of life. In port cities, infrastructures and energy flows overlap with city flows and patterns that change with different rhythms and temporalities. This discrepancy creates abandonment and marginality between port and city. This today is no longer sustainable. New approaches and solutions that look at integration and circularity rather than separation are necessary.Circularity has been widely discussed in the literature. However, the concept still remains very controversial, especially when it comes to port cities where new definitions are needed in particular to better understand the spatial dimension of circularity. The Rotterdam therefore case study stands exemplary. Here, the concept of the circular economy refers mostly to the theme of obsolete industrial buildings and marginal that are reinserted again within the urban metabolism. The case of Rotterdam points out that the competition of the port today goes through the quality of its relationship spaces and the ability of the different actors involved in the planning process to hold together economic growth and environmental sustainability. The areas along the river are in fact the most fascinating places in the city and today they are ready for a different use. In order for the city to become an attractive place to live it is necessary to build new, innovative and sustainable spatial visions. This will lead to scenarios of sustainable coexistence between port and city. Therefore, these two agendas (sustainable port and city attractiveness) came together in the area known as Makers district (M4H) which, together with RDM campus, represents the Rotterdam testing ground for innovation.Therefore, this chapter, by arguing that ports will play a crucial role in the transition towards more circularity investigates how to make it happen and how to transform the challenges of the port into opportunities for a territorial regeneration towards new forms of integration. In order to answer the question, the case of Rotterdam is presented to analyse a model of urban regeneration where different planning agencies—mainly port authority, municipality, universities and private parties—work together at different scales to define a sustainable coexistence of interests. The research, which draws data on existing literature and policy documents analysis, firstly introduces the spatial and governance structures of the city of Rotterdam as part of a bigger metropolitan region. Secondly, it analyses the case of “Stadshavens strategy” as an emblematic example to overcome conflicts and path dependencies at the intersection of land and water. Finally, it concludes by highlighting some limitations and path dependencies that could make the transition to new forms of the circular economy very difficult in the future.
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"Computational Intelligence in Energy Generation." In Multi-Objective Optimization of Industrial Power Generation Systems, 1–62. IGI Global, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-1710-9.ch001.
Анотація:
As economies become increasingly complex, so do their associated energy generation systems. Therefore, engineers and decision makers in this sector are spurred to seek out state-of-the-art approaches to deal with this rapid increase in system complexity. An effective strategy to deal with this scenario is to employ computational intelligence (CI) methods. CI supplements the heuristics used by the engineer—enhancing the cumulative analytic capacity to effectively resolve complicated scenarios. CI could be split to two classes: predictive modeling and optimization. In this chapter, past applications of CI in energy generation are discussed. The sectors presented here are renewable energy systems, distributed generation, nuclear power plants, coal power, and gas-fueled plants.
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Bangtit, Tapparit. "Design and Simulation of Low-Cost Microgrid Controller in Off-Grid Remote Areas." In Electric Power Conversion and Micro-Grids. IntechOpen, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.98551.
Анотація:
This study presents the microgrid controller with an energy management strategy for an off-grid microgrid, consisting of an energy storage system (ESS), photovoltaic system (PV), micro-hydro, and diesel generator. The aim is to investigate the improved electrical distribution and off-grid operation in remote areas. The off-grid microgrid model and the control algorithms developed using MATLAB Simulink and State flow. The energy management system is focusing on the state of charge of the energy storage system. The microgrid controller controls the operation mode and power generation from the distributed generations’ local controller, i.e., PV, micro-hydro, and diesel. It also controls the smart meters of the loads to be connected or disconnected to the microgrid. The simulation results show that the proposed microgrid control can control the target off-grid microgrid in given possible scenarios. The off-grid microgrid managed to meet the energy demand with the lowest power outage and the diesel generator operation’s lowest cost.
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Nguyen, Trung, and Tam Bui. "Use Improved Differential Evolution Algorithms to Handle the Inverse Kinetics Problem for Robots with Residual Degrees of Freedom." In Robotics Software Design and Engineering. IntechOpen, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.97138.
Анотація:
In this study, the Self-adaptive strategy algorithm for controlling parameters in Differential Evolution algorithm (ISADE) improved from the Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm, as well as the upgraded version of the algorithms has been applied to solve the Inverse Kinetics (IK) problem for the redundant robot with 7 Degree of Freedom (DoF). The results were compared with 4 other algorithms of DE and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) as well as Pro-DE and Pro-PSO algorithms. These algorithms are tested in three different Scenarios for the motion trajectory of the end effector of in the workspace. In the first scenario, the IK results for a single point were obtained. 100 points randomly generated in the robot’s workspace was input parameters for Scenario 2, while Scenario 3 used 100 points located on a spline in the robot workspace. The algorithms were compared with each other based on the following criteria: execution time, endpoint distance error, number of generations required and especially quality of the joints’ variable found. The comparison results showed 2 main points: firstly, the ISADE algorithm gave much better results than the other DE and PSO algorithms based on the criteria of execution time, endpoint accuracy and generation number required. The second point is that when applying Pro-ISADE, Pro-DE and Pro-PSO algorithms, in addition to the ability to significantly improve the above parameters compared to the ISADE, DE and PSO algorithms, it also ensures the quality of solved joints’ values.
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Kim, Ku Hwoi, Ji Ho Song, Dongil Shin, and En Sup Yoon. "A strategy for the generation of robust accident scenarios in quantitative risk assessment using multi-component analysis." In Computer Aided Chemical Engineering, 733–38. Elsevier, 2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s1570-7946(00)80124-8.
Тези доповідей конференцій з теми "Scenarios generation strategy":
1
Lin, Chun-Yu, and Gül Okudan. "Application of Dynamic State Variable Models for Multiple-Generation Product Lines With Cannibalization Across Generations." In ASME 2012 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2012-71186.
Анотація:
Developing multiple-generation of products has become a mainstream tactic in today’s markets. The most notable case is Apple Inc.’s huge success with its iPod, iPhone and iPad product lines. Multiple-generation product lines require carefully planned strategies. Under a multiple-generation product development strategy, companies introduce a line of products to the market instead of introducing a single product to better utilize technology assets and resources in an elongated time span. For such product development and launch scenarios, cannibalization can occur, however. That is, multiple product generations compete in the same market and partition the company’s market shares. In the paper, we propose a new framework to predict the sales and introduction timing for every product generation in a multiple-generation product line while considering cannibalization. We demonstrate a case study implementing the proposed framework on Apple Inc.’s iPhone product line. The results show that the forecast performance of the model matches the realized real data.
2
Silva, Paolo, Stefano Campanari, and Ennio Macchi. "Optimization of Operating Conditions and Compressor Cleaning Time Intervals of Combined Cycles in a Liberalized Market." In ASME Turbo Expo 2003, collocated with the 2003 International Joint Power Generation Conference. ASMEDC, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/gt2003-38455.
Анотація:
The paper addresses the optimization of the managing strategy of a combined cycle power plant in a liberalized market characterized by great time variability of the electricity sale price. Besides electric tariffs, a variety of other factors affect the selection of the plant operating mode, such as environmental conditions, O&M costs, range of plant output regulation capability, performance deterioration of the components and compressor fouling rate. All calculations refer to a real combined cycle power plant owned by an Italian utility, for which are available detailed performance data, in “new and clean” conditions as well as in real operation. The optimum plant operating schedule is found with reference to three different tariff scenarios: (i) the present Italian situation, characterized by the primary role of oil and gas fired steam power stations, (ii) the Italian situation foreseen after the massive repowering program of existing steam power plants is completed, and (iii) a situation where the base-load electricity is generated by coal-fired power stations. The comparison indicates the utmost importance of the reference tariff scenario on the actual energy ad economic budget of the power station.
3
Wang, Xi Vincent, and Lihui Wang. "Safety Strategy in the Smart Manufacturing System: A Human Robot Collaboration Case Study." In ASME 2020 15th International Manufacturing Science and Engineering Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/msec2020-8427.
Анотація:
Abstract The next generation of the manufacturing industry calls for new approaches with smarter functionalities and better/safer working environment for human beings. The Human-Robot Collaboration (HRC) approach provides a feasible solution combing the flexibility and intelligence of a human, together with the accuracy and strength of an industrial robot. However, in the past years, despite the significant development of different HRC approaches, there is still a lack of clear safety strategy for an HRC system. Thus in this paper, the extensive taxonomy of the human-robot relations are first defined to provide a clear classification in different robotic scenarios. Then a comprehensive action strategy is developed toward different scenarios and human stakeholder’s roles. A dynamic HRC layout approach is also introduced based on the actual speed of human and robot and the distance between them. The feasibility of the proposed approaches in this paper is then evaluated via the implemenntation in an HRC-based assembly cell. The operator’s biometric data is also included in the HRC control loop. It is proven achievable to conduct personalised HRC safety strategy based on the human stakeholder’s role, physical conditions, speed and so forth. The future research outlooks and essential considerations are addressed at the end of the paper.
4
Messer, M., J. H. Panchal, J. K. Allen, F. Mistree, V. Krishnamurthy, B. Klein, and P. D. Yoder. "Designing Embodiment Design Processes Using a Value-of-Information-Based Approach With Applications for Integrated Product and Materials Design." In ASME 2008 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. ASMEDC, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2008-49395.
Анотація:
Designers are continuously challenged to manage complexity in embodiment design processes (EDPs), in the context of integrated product and materials design. In order to manage complexity in design processes, a systematic strategy to embodiment design process generation and selection is presented in this paper. The strategy is based on a value-of-information-based Process Performance Indicator (PPI). The approach is particularly well-suited for integrated product and materials design, and all other scenarios where knowledge of a truthful, i.e., perfect, design process and bounds of error are not available in the entire design space. The proposed strategy is applied to designing embodiment design processes for photonic crystal waveguides in the context of a next-generation optoelectronic communication system. In this paper, it is shown that the proposed strategy based on the Process Performance Indicator is useful for evaluating the performance of embodiment design processes particularly when accuracy of the prediction or the associated error bounds are not known.
5
Curtis, Shane K., Braden J. Hancock, and Christopher A. Mattson. "Use Scenarios for Design Space Exploration With a Dynamic Multiobjective Optimization Formulation." In ASME 2012 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2012-71039.
Анотація:
In a recent publication, we presented a new strategy for engineering design and optimization, which we termed formulation space exploration. The formulation space for an optimization problem is the union of all variable and design objective spaces identified by the designer as being valid and pragmatic problem formulations. By extending a computational search into this new space, the solution to any optimization problem is no longer predefined by the optimization problem formulation. This method allows a designer to both diverge the design space during conceptual design and converge onto a solution as more information about the design objectives and constraints becomes available. Additionally, we introduced a new way to formulate multiobjective optimization problems, allowing the designer to change and update design objectives, constraints, and variables in a simple, fluid manner that promotes exploration. In this paper, we investigate three use scenarios where formulation space exploration can be utilized in the early stages of design when it is possible to make the greatest contributions to development projects. Specifically, we look at s-Pareto frontier generation in the formulation space, formulation space boundary exploration, and a new way to perform inverse optimization. The benefits of these methods are illustrated with the conceptual design of an impact driver.
6
Drudy, Keith J., Toshio Morita, and Barbara T. Connelley. "Robustness of the MSHIM Operation and Control Strategy in the AP1000 Design." In 17th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering. ASMEDC, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/icone17-75314.
Анотація:
The Westinghouse AP1000™ nuclear power plant design uses several evolutionary and advanced components, systems and analysis methods in order to maximize plant operational safety and efficiency. One advanced component of the AP1000 is the integration of the MSHIM operation and control strategy within the plant design. As a summary, the MSHIM operation and control strategy is an operational philosophy that has evolved from the Constant Axial Offset Control (CAOC) strategy, which was originally developed for the current generation of Westinghouse PWRs. The term MSHIM is derived from the fact that reactivity control uses low worth (or gray) control rod banks as a “mechanical shim.” This is opposed to today’s PWRs, which depend largely on changes in the chemical shim (soluble boron) concentration in the reactor coolant in order to provide fine reactivity control. The MSHIM strategy is unique in that it makes use of two independently controlled rod groups to provide fine control of both the core reactivity and axial power distribution during a wide range of operational scenarios. In the AP1000, the MSHIM operation and control strategy has been fully integrated into the digital rod control system. Specifically, automatic control of core reactivity (or RCS temperature) is provided using four (4) banks of “gray” control rods and two (2) banks of traditional control rods, all moving in a defined overlap. Furthermore, automatic axial power distribution (i.e., ex-core ΔI) control is provided using a single, heavy bank of traditional control rods which move independently of the reactivity control banks. It has been demonstrated that fine control of core reactivity and axial power distribution control can be achieved during a wide range of operational scenarios while relying only upon the automatic rod control functionality. Changes in the concentration of the chemical shim within the reactor coolant can thus be limited to only that required to directly compensate fuel and/or burnable absorber depletion during a given fuel cycle. In the AP1000, the MSHIM operation and control strategy is complemented by the BEACON™ on-line core monitoring system. BEACON provides direct monitoring of power distribution related parameters such as departure from nucleate boiling ratio (DNBR), peak linear heat rate (PLHR), and shutdown margin (SDM). The integration of the BEACON monitoring system into the AP1000 plant increases operational flexibility by relaxing certain operational limits during BEACON operation. The net effect of BEACON integration, thus, is to maximize the ability of rod control under the MSHIM strategy to maintain reactor operation within the associated technical specification limits, even under adverse operational transients. This paper explores the robustness of the MSHIM operation and control strategy under a range of anticipated plant operational scenarios. Furthermore, this paper demonstrates the operational simplification associated with this strategy as it has been integrated into the AP1000 plant control systems.
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Manohar, V. Joshi, Rahel Ann Johnson, K. Mahesh, and Satish Babu Boppana. "Distributed Photovoltaic/Battery Power Systems with a Three-Portpower Converter Based on Fopid Control Strategy." In Sustainable Materials and Recent Trends in Mechanical Engineering. Switzerland: Trans Tech Publications Ltd, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/p-4sesmd.
Анотація:
The operation of a three-port power converter using a fractional-order proportional-integral-derivative (FOPID) controller is intended for use in PV and battery systems. These results encourage us to suggest utilizing a single-port power converter to regulate the output of Distributed Power Generation (DPG) systems including PV and battery. The system's power density and reliability both increase as a result of sharing power switches between the full-bridge DC-DC converter and the bidirectional-integrated converter. To ensure power equilibrium among the three ports across various operational scenarios, we outline an approach to managing energy and a control technique centered around FOPID, taking into account the advantages of battery management and Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT). To confirm the proper deployment of the MPPT control loop and battery charging/discharging monitoring loop under various circumstances, we simulated the intended DPG system using MATLAB/Simulink.
8
Ma, Zhegang, Carlo Parisi, Cliff Davis, Sai Zhang, and Hongbin Zhang. "Risk-Informed Analysis for Accident Tolerant Fuel in Pressurized Water Reactors." In 2020 International Conference on Nuclear Engineering collocated with the ASME 2020 Power Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/icone2020-16761.
Анотація:
Abstract This paper presents the research activities performed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) for the Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk-Informed System Analysis (RISA) Pathway, Enhanced Resilient Plant (ERP) Systems research, using the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool SAPHIRE and the deterministic best estimate tool RELAP5-3D for risk-informed analysis. The ERP research supports DOE and industry initiatives by developing Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF), the Diverse and Flexible Coping Strategy (FLEX), and passive cooling system designs to enhance existing reactors’ safety features (both active and passive) and to substantially reduce operating costs of nuclear power plants (NPPs) through risk-informed approaches to analyze the plant enhancements and their characterization. The risk-informed analysis used SAPHIRE and RELAP5-3D to evaluate the risk impacts from near-term ATF (FeCrAl and Chromium-coated clads) on a generic Westinghouse three-loop pressurized water reactor (PWR) under the following accident scenarios: station blackout (SBO), loss of feedwater (LOFW), steam generator tube rupture (SGTR), loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs), locked rotor transient, turbine trip transient, anticipated transient without scram (ATWS), and main steam line break (MSLB). The RELAP5-3D simulations included the time to core damage, time to 0.5 kilograms hydrogen generation, and total hydrogen generation. The simulation results show there are modest gains of coping time (delay of time to core damage) due to efficacy of the near-term ATF designs in various accident scenarios. The risk benefits on behalf of the core damage frequency (CDF) brought by the ATF designs would be small for most of the scenarios. However, results revealing much less hydrogen being produced at the time of core damage show a clear benefit in adopting ATFs.
9
Douglas, M. E., Michael K. Sahm, and William J. Wepfer. "Economic Optimization of a Distributed Generation System for an Orifice Building." In ASME 2006 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. ASMEDC, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece2006-15368.
Анотація:
Methodologies have been developed to aid in selection of a candidate distributed generation system for use in meeting a building's electrical demand. The systems studied are comprised of a combination of microturbines and/or natural gas reciprocating engines. These systems could also be used as prime movers in a combined heat and power application. Economic optimizations have been performed in order to identify distributed generation/prime mover combinations and operating strategies that yield the lowest electrical generation cost. These optimizations take into account a finite set of operating scenarios and equipment combinations. In addition to the economic optimizations, a direct comparison of customer design considerations has been made, highlighting the advantages and disadvantages of both microturbines and reciprocating engines. In this study, the optimal system for a 9290 m2 (100,000 ft2) office building in New York City at today's natural gas prices was determined to be a combination of natural gas reciprocating engines and microturbines. This system yielded a 5% reduction in generation costs over other cases examined including all homogeneous composition systems. With an increase in natural gas prices, the optimal case changes to be comprised solely of natural gas reciprocating engines. It has been shown that many factors are important to selection of optimal equipment including the specific end use load profile, cost of fuel, and system operating strategy.
10
Staudt, James E. "Minimizing the Impact of SCR Catalyst on Total Generating Cost Through Effective Catalyst Management." In ASME 2004 Power Conference. ASMEDC, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/power2004-52091.
Анотація:
For coal-fired boilers equipped with Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) NOx reduction technology, direct catalyst cost contributes to a major operating expense. Decisions regarding catalyst management have other significant impacts to generating cost, including outage time and frequency and parasitic load. Strategies for minimizing the impact to total generating cost while preserving system performance — generally referred to as catalyst management — are receiving greater attention. Approaches to managing catalyst can vary widely. Therefore, analysis of catalyst management strategies requires accurate predictive tools for assessing SCR system performance that have the flexibility to address a wide range of scenarios. These predictive tools may also be used to investigate performance issues that facility operators may encounter. However, until recently, operators have not had access to these tools, except through catalyst suppliers or consultants. In this presentation, various catalyst management strategies will be examined. Using an analysis tool recently adopted by several power plant operators and SCR technology suppliers, we will illustrate how such a tool can be used to optimize a catalyst management strategy to minimize the total cost of generation. Comparisons of model results to measured SCR performance at operating facilities will be presented. The model will be used to show operating trade offs for SCR operating parameters, such as NOx reduction, ammonia slip, catalyst outage frequency, catalyst usage, and parasitic load under a variety of scenarios. We will also discuss how the tool can be used to diagnose operating problems.
Звіти організацій з теми "Scenarios generation strategy":
1
Kotlikoff, Laurence J., Guillermo Lagarda, and Gabriel Marin. A Personalized VAT with Capital Transfers: A Reform to Protect Low-Income Households in Mexico. Inter-American Development Bank, July 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0005028.
Анотація:
The Value-Added Tax (VAT) is the most prevalent consumption tax globally, yet it is frequently deemed highly regressive. To address this, we propose a Personalized VAT (PVAT) devised in conjunction with a distributional policy. We aim to achieve three objectives: increase revenue collection, achieve progressivity, and disrupt the intergenerational dependency of low-income households. We use Mexico as a case study, showing that eliminating all special VAT regimes and standardizing the rate at 16% could contribute an additional 2.2% of GDP to fiscal revenues. However, such a reform could have severe negative welfare impacts on the poor. To tackle this dilemma, we propose several PVAT scenarios. Our results indicate that a PVAT could be fiscally neutral or even increase revenues by up to 0.83% of GDP, while benefiting the lowest-income households. Lastly, we analyze the general equilibrium effects of a PVAT and various distributional policies, including lump-sum and capital transfers. For this purpose, we employ an overlapping generations model calibrated for Mexico. Our simulations reveal welfare enhancing and output growth results through a PVAT policy that includes capital transfers, thereby presenting a viable strategy for breaking intergenerational dependency.
2
Canto, Patricia, ed. The role of vocational training knowledge intensive business services. (Main conclusions). Universidad de Deusto, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.18543/vyqr9353.
Анотація:
In the global economic model, the service sector continues to gain ground on the manufacturing sector and trends such as the integration of new technologies into production processes are advancing inexorably. Advanced economies are pushed to specialise, supported by their regional innovation systems, and cities are emerging as key and strategic centres of activity. In this context, Knowledge Intensive Business Services (KIBS) are presented as critical due to their capacity to promote innovation within the regional productive fabric and smart specialisation strategies, the promotion of advanced manufacturing, the generation of quality employment and the stimulation of economic growth, especially in urban environments. This is why many cities, prioritizing KIBS to stimulate their economy, need to create and retain talent for this sort of industry. Likewise, vocational and education training (VET) systems, such as the Basque VET system, have so far developed their greatest strengths in the field of manufacturing knowledge. Due to this, VET seems to be obliged to adapt to this new scenario, in which KIBS and cities stand out, in order to continue to maintain their level of excellence. KIBS have been extensively examined, but until now no one had posed the following questions: What is the role of vocational training in KIBS? To what extent are VET profiles (and will VET profiles be) relevant in KIBS? This study will show an emerging trend in the labour market. This is the growing relevance of technology profiles with VET background in KIBS, especially in technology-based KIBS. VET technology profiles can be consolidated as one of the main implementing agents of the digital transformation (cybersecurity, blockchain, cloud computing, UX design, artificial intelligence, scientific computing...). To this end, hybridisation with other fields of knowledge but also with studies of other kinds such as university studies may be essential.
3
The ARL/CNI 2035 Scenarios: AI-Influenced Futures in the Research Environment. Association of Research Libraries, Coalition for Networked Information, and Stratus Inc., May 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.29242/report.aiscenarios2024.
Анотація:
Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, and in particular, generative AI, have the potential to significantly disrupt the research environment. Given the changes that could be brought on by more accessible AI technologies, there is an immediate need for members of the research environment to be proactive and plan for the possible futures that AI will continue to bring to their communities and their workplaces. To address this, ARL and CNI jointly charged a task force to conduct scenario planning for an AI-influenced future. The scenarios were developed through a highly consultative process leveraging the expertise of the ARL/CNI Joint Task Force on Scenario Planning for AI/ML Futures. The strategic focus and critical uncertainties highlighted in the scenarios were identified through extensive stakeholder engagement with the ARL and CNI membership during the winter of 2023 and spring of 2024 and involved over 300 people. Input was provided through focus groups, workshops, and one-on-one interviews.