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SHIOTA, Eiji, and Atsushi OHNISHI. "Scenario Retrieval Method Using Differential Scenario." IEICE Transactions on Information and Systems E99.D, no. 9 (2016): 2202–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1587/transinf.2015kbp0001.
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Anggara Purba, Reno Dias, M. Iqbal Sabit, and Joko Sulistio. "Evaluation of SME (Small Medium Enterprise) production system with discrete system simulation method." MATEC Web of Conferences 154 (2018): 01067. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201815401067.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Like manufacturing companies that have flowshop production lines, SME facing the amount of flow time and makespan. Unfulfilled production targets, buildup on some machines that result in other machines being idle, increasing waiting times across multiple machines, and poor performance of workers are a series of problems facing SME. This article uses a discrete system simulation method to analyze and evaluate SME production lines to improve performance. Simulation is an appropriate tool used when experiments are needed in order to find the best response from system components. From the results of modeling and simulation done found the root of the problem is due to accumulation that occurs in one machine and the lack of utility of the operator in producing bags. So do the experimental design with 3 scenarios on the system that have been modeled and obtained some solutions that can be offered to solve the problem. Furthermore, after the alternative selection is obtained the best scenario based on the alternative selection test is the scenario3 by adding 2 new machines and 1 new operator on the production line obtained a significant output increase compared to other scenarios of approximately 30%. While the best scenario based on the minimum cost is the scenario2 by adding 2 new operators obtained output that is not much different than the scenario3. However, it has not been able to solve a series of problems facing SME. Therefore, the results of this study to solve a series of problems faced by SME is to add facilities in the production line of 2 new machines and 1 operator (scenario3).
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OHNISHI, Atsushi, and Koji KITAMOTO. "A Generation Method of Alternative Scenarios with a Normal Scenario." IEICE Transactions on Information and Systems E93-D, no. 4 (2010): 693–701. http://dx.doi.org/10.1587/transinf.e93.d.693.
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OHNISHI, A. "A Generation Method of Exceptional Scenarios from a Normal Scenario." IEICE Transactions on Information and Systems E91-D, no. 4 (April 1, 2008): 881–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ietisy/e91-d.4.881.
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Jansen van Vuuren, David. "Valuing specialised property: cost vs profits method uncertainty." Journal of Property Investment & Finance 34, no. 6 (September 5, 2016): 655–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jpif-06-2016-0048.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to compare the value outcomes of the cost approach to the DCF profits method when valuing specialised property under different scenarios as a test for choice of method or model uncertainty; and to quantify valuation uncertainty under each scenario and to argue for an increasing adoption of the profits method of valuation. Design/methodology/approach A qualitative case study approach was used to analyse four physical valuations performed in practice under four specific scenarios, namely, a business-as-usual scenario, an underperforming business scenario, an expanding capacity scenario and a combined business-as-usual funding a start-up joint venture scenario. Findings The cost approach relative to the DCF profits approach consistently under-values specialised property under business-as-usual and business expanding scenarios while it over-values in instances of underperforming business scenario. Practical implications Financial institutions that predominantly uses or accepts the cost approach for valuing specialised property should consider adopting the DCF profits approach as the default approach when valuing for mortgage lending purposes. Business owners of specialised properties should contract practitioners knowledgeable and skilled in the application of the DCF profits method. Originality/value This paper quantifies choice of method or model uncertainty of four different scenarios of specialised properties where both the cost approach and DCF profits methods of valuation were employed. It suggests the adoption of the DCF profits method as the default method of valuation for specialised property.
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Nazarko, Joanicjusz, and Anna Kononiuk. "THE CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF SCENARIO CONSTRUCTION IN THE POLISH FORESIGHT INITIATIVES." Technological and Economic Development of Economy 19, no. 3 (October 3, 2013): 510–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2013.809030.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The aim of the article is to present the diagnosis of scenario method application in the Polish foresight initiatives. The concept of scenario method, its evolution, the state of the art of the Polish foresight studies and the critical analysis of the application of this method have been presented. From the questionnaire results the authors have identified (i) the approach used in scenario construction, (ii) the most important phases of scenario construction, (iii) the interconnection of scenario method with other methods of scenario construction, (iv) the profile of experts involved in foresight projects, (v) the profile of experts involved in scenario construction, (vi) the application of the triangulation principle in scenario construction, (vii) the application of wild cards in scenario construction and techniques to identify them, (viii) the average time of scenario construction process, (ix) the linkage of scenarios to other documents, (x) the number of scenarios elaborated upon, and (xi) the main difficulties in the process of scenario construction. To achieve article aims there have been used the following research methods: a literature review, the method of critical analysis and logical construction, survey research, the status of Polish foresight projects, interim and final report analysis. The research has been funded by the National Science Centre in Poland within a research project entitled Scenarios in future shaping and anticipation for foresight studies, project number: 4194/B/H03/2011/40.
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Stojanovic, Milica, Petar Mitkovic, and Mihailo Mitkovic. "The scenario method in urban planning." Facta universitatis - series: Architecture and Civil Engineering 12, no. 1 (2014): 81–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/fuace1401081s.
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Scenario planning techniques are increasingly gaining attention in the process of spatial and urban planning because of their usefulness in times of uncertainty and complexity. Scenario planning encourages strategic thinking and helps to overcome thinking limitations by creating multiple futures. In this way, it can help to shape the future according to the values and desires of society. Although scenario planning has been used a lot in the business world, there are scarce examples of its application in the field of urban planning. One of the reasons for this is the huge variety of methods and tools with no general guidelines for the implementation of the appropriate procedure and techniques for constructing scenarios in urban planning. Although each exercise of scenario planning must be unique in its context and actors, the methodological approach may be similar. For this reason, the main goal of this paper is to systematize the known methods for scenario construction, emphasize the featured techniques and tools, and consider the possibility of applying scenario methods in the contemporary city planning.
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Wang, Xiao Wei, Jian Feng Li, Jian Zhi Li, and Rui Jun Zhang. "A New LCA Method Based on Multi-Scenarios Coexistence." Advanced Materials Research 139-141 (October 2010): 1442–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.139-141.1442.
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Because of the simplification for scenario choices and few reflections of space-time characters, product designers or police makers can’t reference effectively the results of LCA. This paper proposed a new LCA method for design scheme based on multi-scenarios coexistence. First, various life-cycle scenarios of product are summarized and the common attributes are extracted to generate the scenario model. Second, the choice matrix of multi-scenarios is founded based on product statistic. And the probabilities of scenarios calculated from the choice matrix are used to gather together the environmental impacts of multi-scenarios in proportion. Third, the inventory data are collected as per scenario including pollution emissions and character information. The later are used to generate personnel, spatial and temporal factors which reflect the diversity of environmental impacts in different scenarios. Finally, the related issues are discussed including matters needing attention in practical application and what need to research in future.
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Svatošová, Veronika, and Josef Smolík. "The Scenarios of Social Policy Development in the Czech Republic." Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 63, no. 5 (2015): 1749–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201563051749.
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The main objective of this paper is to create scenarios of possible development of social policy in the Czech Republic and evaluate the probability of each scenario. Based on the literature review and scenario method, three scenarios are created (scenario of a positive development, scenario of a negative development, and explorative scenario), which are compared with the current state of Czech social policy and which evaluate the possible development of Czech social policy in the period up to 2050. For the implementation of scenarios, basic factors that influence the development of Czech social policy are identified. The complementary research methods are creative methods brainstorming and mind mapping, modelling, an intuitive method of estimating trends and decision-making method of scoring. The research shows that the Czech social policy system is threatened without accepting the strategic and conceptual social policy solutions. The probability of the scenario of negative development (critical scenario) of Czech social policy is more than ninety percent. This scenario is based on a deep economic crisis, the collapse of the entire system of social policy and great social unrest. The created scenarios are useful for actors of social policy which can reverse the negative development of Czech social policy.
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Fergnani, Alessandro. "The future persona: a futures method to let your scenarios come to life." foresight 21, no. 4 (August 9, 2019): 445–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-10-2018-0086.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to formally introduce the future persona, a futures method to let scenarios come to life. A future persona is a scenario-specific fictional individual living in the future scenario (s)he is meant to depict. The paper provides a formal, systematic and clear step-by-step guide on how to create engaging and effective future personas after a scenario planning exercise. Design/methodology/approach After having introduced the future persona method, tracing it back to the customer persona method in user centered design (UCD) and differentiating it from previous uses of futures characters in the futures studies literature and in other domains, an example of the creation process of four future personas based on four scenario archetypes of the futures of work is provided, illustrated with pictures and discussed. Findings Future personas, with their narratives and graphical illustrations, are found to be particularly useful to convey scenarios to a target audience. Practical implications Futures personas can be used in a scenario planning exercise to increase the clarity of scenarios in the mind of scenario planners and to let scenarios be known inside an organization. Originality/value Future personas can substantially enrich scenarios, increasing their liveliness, playfulness and empathy.
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Qian, Xinbo, Qiuhua Tang, and Bo Tao. "A Novel Scenario Reduction Method by 3D-Outputs Clustering for Condition-Based Maintenance Optimization." International Journal of Reliability, Quality and Safety Engineering 24, no. 04 (April 19, 2017): 1750018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218539317500188.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Condition-based maintenance (CBM) optimization involves considering inherent uncertainties and external uncertainties. Since computational complexity increases exponentially with the number of degradation uncertainties and stages, scenario reduction aims to select small set of typical scenarios which can maintain the probability distributions of outputs of possible scenarios. A novel scenario reduction method, 3D-outputs-clustering scenario reduction (3DOCS), is presented by considering the impacts of uncertainty parameters on the output performance for CBM optimization which have been overlooked. Since the output performance for CBM is much more essential than the inputs, the proposed scenario reduction method reduces degradation scenarios by [Formula: see text]-means clustering of the multiple outputs of degradations scenarios for CBM. It minimizes the probabilistic distribution distances of outputs between original and selected scenarios. Case studies show that 3DOCS has advantages as a smaller distance of output performance of selected scenarios compared to that of initial scenarios.
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JI, XIAODONG, XIUJUAN ZHAO, and XIULI CHAO. "A NOVEL METHOD FOR MULTISTAGE SCENARIO GENERATION BASED ON CLUSTER ANALYSIS." International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making 05, no. 03 (September 2006): 513–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0219622006002106.
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Based on cluster analysis, a novel method is introduced in this paper to generate multistage scenarios. A linear programming model is proposed to exclude the arbitrage opportunity by appending a scenario to the generated scenario set. By means of a cited stochastic linear goal programming portfolio model, a case is given to exhibit the virtues of this scenario generation approach.
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Batsch, Felix, Alireza Daneshkhah, Vasile Palade, and Madeline Cheah. "Scenario Optimisation and Sensitivity Analysis for Safe Automated Driving Using Gaussian Processes." Applied Sciences 11, no. 2 (January 15, 2021): 775. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app11020775.
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Assuring the safety of automated vehicles is essential for their timely introduction and acceptance by policymakers and the public. To assess their safe design and robust decision making in response to all possible scenarios, new methods that use a scenario-based testing approach are needed, as testing on public roads in normal traffic would require driving millions of kilometres. We make use of the scenario-based testing approach and propose a method to model simulated scenarios using Gaussian Process based models to predict untested scenario outcomes. This enables us to efficiently determine the performance boundary, where the safe and unsafe scenarios can be evidently distinguished from each other. We present an iterative method that optimises the parameter space of a logical scenario towards the most critical scenarios on this performance boundary. Additionally, we conduct a novel probabilistic sensitivity analysis by efficiently computing several variance-based sensitivity indices using the Gaussian Process models and evaluate the relative importance of the scenario input parameters on the scenario outcome. We critically evaluate and investigate the usefulness of the proposed Gaussian Process based approach as a very efficient surrogate model, which can model the logical scenarios effectively in the presence of uncertainty. The proposed approach is applied on an exemplary logical scenario and shows viability in finding concrete critical scenarios. The reported results, derived from the proposed approach, could pave the way to more efficient testing of automated vehicles and instruct further physical tests on the determined critical scenarios.
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Nugrahanto, Candra Arie, Jaka Windarta, and Jaka Aminata. "Analysis of Causality Relationship Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions to Economic Growth based on the LEAP Model Case Study of Energy Consumption in Indonesia 2010-2025)." E3S Web of Conferences 73 (2018): 01002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20187301002.
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This study discusses scenarios and analyzes the causal relationship of energy consumption and CO2 emissions to economic growth in Indonesia period 2010-2025. The modeling scenario is divided into 6 sections, namely BAU scenario, High scenario, Low scenario, High-Low scenario, Low-High scenario and Policy scenario. The result of scenario data is processed by performing statistical data modeling and econometric period 2010-2025. The research method used interpolation method and causality testing method. The tools are used in this research is LEAP and EViews. LEAP is used for energy modeling as well as CO2 emissions and EViews is used to manage data, analyze econometrics and statistics. The results of this study show that economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions at 6 scenario indicate fluctuated competitive growth. This study proves that only 1 scenario has direct causality relationship that is only energy consumption which statistically significant influence economic growth in Policy scenario. For economic growth and CO2 emissions there are 4 scenarios that have direct causality (BAU, High, High -Low, Low-High scenario), 1 scenario has no causality relationship (Low scenario) and 1 scenario has two -way causality relationship (Policy scenario).
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khademi Jolgeh Nejad, Afsaneh, Reza Ahmadi Kahnali, and Ali Heyrani. "Developing Hospital Resilient Supply Chain Scenario through Cross-Impact Analysis Method." Depiction of Health 12, no. 4 (November 3, 2021): 310–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.34172/doh.2021.30.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Background and Objectives The hospital and its supply chain must be resilient in the critical situations. Developing scenario is an important tool for planning and decision-making process in these situations. Therefore, this study intended to develop possible scenarios for hospital supply chain resilience. Material and Methods This research study is applied in terms of purpose and is based the scenario method and the probabilistic trends approach. The participants of the study were 14 experts from two hospitals who were selected through a purposeful sampling method. The data obtained in the first phase of the semi-structured interviews, were coded and analyzed through using MAXQDA Software. In the next phase, the cross impact analysis questionnaire was used to develop the scenario and the analysis of the data was performed through Scenario Wizard software. Results The results of combining 35 states for 12 factors affecting hospital resilience which also included all possible future states, showed that 7 scenarios with high adaptation and 467 scenarios with poor adaptation can be considered. Strong scenarios were divided into three groups of scenarios as "optimistic", "intermediate" and "pessimistic" based on similarity and degree of desirability. Conclusion The Findings revealed that the strength of the impact of unfavorable states was more than that of favorable states. Therefore, for the resilience of the hospital supply chain, it is necessary to pay more attention to unfavorable scenarios to provide the necessary preparation to face those states, and with proper planning, the desired states can be achieved. Extended Abstract Background and Objectives The complexity and intensity of environmental fluctuations combined with unexpected accidents and dangers have increased the probability of hospital supply chain disruptions. The hospital and its supply chain must be intelligent to resist unforeseen events, so that in different situations, there is no work stoppage in their activities. Scenarios are an important tool for improving the planning and decision-making process in these situations. The purpose of this paper is to develop a scenario for hospital supply chain resilience. Material and Methods This research is based on the scenario method, and it is applied in terms of purpose. In addition, in the category of normative scenarios and based on the probabilistic modified trends (PMT) school. The Participants were 14 experts from two hospitals who were purposefully selected. The data obtained in the first phase from interviews, were coded and analyzed through MAXQDA Software. In the second phase, based on the participants' viewpoints, the possible states of each of the identified factors in the previous stage were defined, and the cross impact questionnaire was designed. The cross impact questionnaire is in the form of a matrix in which respondents determine the effect of each state on other states. Finally, cross impact analysis method and Scenario Wizard software were used to compile the scenario and compatibility coefficients and total impact score indices were used to examine compatible scenarios. Results Based on analysis results of the semi-structured interviews, 30 drivers of hospital supply chain resilience were identified. These factors were clustered in the form of 12 main components including: "staff preparedness and accountability in the event of a disaster", "safety of infrastructure and equipment", "recovery of infrastructure after disaster", "cooperation and participation of various organizations and communication systems among them", "support systems and potential hospital capacity", "coordination and flexibility of suppliers", "planning and management of disaster", "nature of accidents", "government policies", "sanctions on drugs and equipment", "people's culture at the time of the accident", and "funding". The output of Scenario Wizard software showed 7 strong scenarios that were divided into three groups of scenarios as "Optimistic", "pessimistic" and "interstitial" based on their rank and degree of desirability. The Optimistic scenarios include ideal resilient and hard resilient scenarios, the interstitial scenarios comprise high-capacity and troublesome challenging scenarios, and the pessimistic scenarios consist of vulnerable, defenseless and fragmented scenarios. Conclusion The results showed that the strength of the impact of undesirable situations was more than that of desirable situations. Hence, for the resilience of the hospital supply chain, it is necessary to pay more attention to undesirable scenarios in comparison to desirable ones in order to provide the necessary preparation to face those situations and to reach the desirable situations through proper planning. Practical Implications of Research Due to the challenges of traditional planning in the face of the future, in this study, the scenario developing approach was used as a tool to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of planning in the hospital supply chain. Managers and planners can substitute alternative futures for a single future and plan to take advantage of favorable future situations and avoid or reduce the effects of unfavorable future situations to be better prepared to face the future. Ethical Considerations In the present study, all ethical considerations have been observed based on the recommendations and regulations. Conflict of Interest The authors stated that there is no conflict of interest. Aknowledgment This article is based on the result of Afsaneh Khademi-Jolgehnejad’s Master thesis submitted to the University of Hormozgan and received approval code Under 11130.Authors are grateful to the consultants of the Clinical Research Development Center of Shahid Mohammadi Hospital and Bandar Abbas Children's Hospital for their cooperation and guidances.
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Tang, Xiangying, Yan Hu, Zhanpeng Chen, and Guangzeng You. "Flexibility Evaluation Method of Power Systems with High Proportion Renewable Energy Based on Typical Operation Scenarios." Electronics 9, no. 4 (April 10, 2020): 627. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/electronics9040627.
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The development of renewable energy represented by wind, photovoltaic and hydropower has increased the uncertainty of power systems. In order to ensure the flexible operation of power systems with a high proportion of renewable energy, it is necessary to establish a multi-scenario power system flexibility evaluation method. First, this study uses a modified k-means algorithm to cluster operating scenarios of renewable energy and load to obtain several typical scenarios. Then, flexibility evaluation indices are proposed from three perspectives, including supply and demand balance of the zone, power flow distribution of the zone and transmission capacity between zones. Next, to calculate the flexibility evaluation indices of each scenario—and according to the occurrence probability of each scenario—we multiplied the indices of each scenario by the scenario occurrence probability to obtain comprehensive evaluation indices of all scenarios. Based on the actual historical output data of renewable energy and load of a southern power system in China, a flexibility evaluation was performed on the modified IEEE 14 system and modified IEEE 39 system. The results show that the proposed clustering method and flexibility indices can effectively reflect the flexibility status of the power system.
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Meissner, Philip, and Torsten Wulf. "The development of strategy scenarios based on prospective hindsight." Journal of Strategy and Management 8, no. 2 (May 18, 2015): 176–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jsma-01-2015-0004.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Purpose – Research focussed on the scenario method has increasingly criticized the widely used intuitive logics (IL) approach to scenario development and introduced enhanced approaches, such as the backwards logic method (BLM) or the antifragile (AF) method, to overcome the restrictions associated with the IL approach. The BLM and the AF method have contributed to the further development of the scenario method by integrating backward reasoning and by increasing the method’s effectiveness for decision making. The purpose of this paper is to build on these ideas and introduce strategy scenarios as a further enhancement of the scenario method that directly applies the benefits of scenario-based planning to strategy development in corporations. Design/methodology/approach – The authors argue that the existing methodologies do not fully integrate the benefits of scenario-based planning for strategic decision making and strategy development, as they mostly aim to develop macroenvironmental scenarios and test organizations’ existing strategies. Findings – The paper suggests that changing the scope of scenario planning from environmental developments to the organization’s strategies themselves can further strengthen the method’s effectiveness for decision making. Originality/value – The strategy scenario approach provides an enhanced approach to more comprehensively utilize the benefits of scenario-based reasoning for strategic decision making.
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Zhang, Jianfei, and Sai Ke. "Improved YOLOX Fire Scenario Detection Method." Wireless Communications and Mobile Computing 2022 (March 10, 2022): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/9666265.
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Considering the problems of existing target detection model difficulty for use in complicated fire scenarios and few detection targets, an improved YOLOX fire scenario detection model was introduced, to realize multitarget detection of flame, smoke, and persons: firstly, a light attention module, for improving the overall detection performance of the model; secondly, the channel shuffle technique was employed, for increasing the communication ability between channels; and finally, the backbone channel was replaced with a light transformer module, for enhancing the capture ability of the backbone channel for global information. As shown in the experiment with self-developed fire dataset, mAP of T-YOLOX increased by 2.24% as compared with the benchmark model (YOLOX), and the detection accuracy was significantly improved as compared with that of CenterNet and YOLOv3, showing the effectiveness and advantages of the algorithm.
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Zhao, Kaigong, Haiyan Wang, and Dengfeng Zheng. "Research on Structural Similarity Design Emergency Exercise’s Scenario." Geofluids 2022 (February 11, 2022): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/6590957.
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In order to better apply the “situational response” model in the field of fluidized mining emergency management, it is the first step and the most critical problem to construct a reasonable scenario for fluidized mining emergency drills and reasonably put forward emergency management measures. Therefore, the structural similarity method is adopted in this paper to design emergency exercise scenarios. Firstly, a model of hierarchical structured scenarios is proposed, namely, modules of “Event-Environment-State of scenario-Disposal of task-Emergency action- Resources subject.” Secondly, a scenario chain is designed, and a prediction method of the event development trend under the current scenario is proposed. Thirdly, the calculation method of scenario similarity and the proposed emergency response scheme method under the current situation after similarity comparison are proposed. Finally, the structural similarity analysis method is used to verify the application of “scenario construction” in oil and gas pipeline accidents, and better analysis results are obtained. Through this research, the application of “scenario design” in fluidized mining emergency management has been expanded and enriched, and technical support for “scenario design” of fluidized mining assisted decisions is provided.
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Vesali, Leila, Seyed Reza Naqib Sadat, Hossein Afkhami, and Ali Asghar Kia. "Managing uncertainties for effective social network: Strategic analysis of media literacy with Scenario Planning Method." Journal of Governance and Accountability Studies 2, no. 1 (January 25, 2022): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.35912/jgas.v2i1.755.
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Abstract Purpose: This research was conducted to identify future scenarios in the field of media literacy and explore alternative futures in this field in Iran. Research methodology: The method of this research was scenario planning or scenario design with an exploratory futuristic approach. In this method, in several steps from identifying the factors affecting the future of media literacy to exploring future uncertainties, creating the logic of scenarios, describing the narrative of scenarios, identifying and strategically analyzing opportunities and threats related to each scenario, and finally identifying strategies for the future Includes with each scenario. Results: In this study, 30 factors affecting the future were identified and analyzed perceptually/cognitively. The output of the research is to present four possible future scenarios of media literacy with the letters of Paradise Lost, Titanic, Leviathan, and The Dark Knight, each of which is described in the following article. Limitations: Each of the strategies is derived from the matrix analysis of opportunities and threats and their interaction. Contribution: The present study will theoretically contribute to the academic and theoretical richness as well as promote the culture and literature of futurism in the field of communication sciences and especially in the field of media literacy. It has operational importance and necessity.
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Kowalski, Zygmunt, Magdalena Muradin, Joanna Kulczycka, and Agnieszka Makara. "Comparative Analysis of Meat Bone Meal and Meat Bone Combustion Using the Life Cycle Assessment Method." Energies 14, no. 11 (June 4, 2021): 3292. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14113292.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
LCA analysis with 16 impact categories was used for the comparison of two developed combustion technologies: Scenario I—the combustion of meat bone meal produced from all types of meat waste; Scenario II—the combustion of meat bones from the production of meat products. The key hotspots determined were electricity and natural gas consumption, covering as much as 98.2% of the total influence on the environment in Scenario I and 99.3% in Scenario II. Without taking into account the environmental burdens avoided, the LCA analysis showed that Scenario I was assessed to have 71.2% less environmental impact. The avoided burdens approach changed the relationship between the two scenarios. The absolute value score for the overall environmental impact shows that Scenario II can be more environmentally beneficial than Scenario I; however, Scenario I allowed the elimination of all types of Polish meat waste, and Scenario II could only be carried out in meat production units for the elimination of meat bone waste and by-products from meat processing (i.e., 23% of the total meat waste produced in Poland).
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Gao, Feng, Jianli Duan, Yingdong He, and Zilong Wang. "A Test Scenario Automatic Generation Strategy for Intelligent Driving Systems." Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2019 (January 15, 2019): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/3737486.
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In this paper, a methodology of automatic generation of test scenarios for intelligent driving systems is proposed, which is based on the combination of the test matrix (TM) and combinatorial testing (CT) methods together. With a hierarchical model of influence factors, an evaluation index for scenario complexity is designed. Then an improved CT algorithm is proposed to make a balance between test efficiency, condition coverage, and scenario complexity. This method can ensure the required combinational coverage and at the same time increase the overall complexity of generated scenarios, which is not considered by CT. Furthermore, the way to find the best compromise between efficiency and complexity and the bound of scenario number has been analyzed theoretically. To validate the effectiveness, it has been applied in the hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) test of a lane departure warning system (LDW). The results show that the proposed method can ensure required coverage with a significantly improved scenario complexity, and the generated test scenario can find system defects more efficiently.
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Wu, Yi Zhou, and Ling Lin Wu. "The Application of GIS-SCENARIO Decision Method in Spatial Planning." Advanced Materials Research 368-373 (October 2011): 1798–801. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.368-373.1798.
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This study puts forward the framework of GIS—Scenario decision method and introduces some methods, ideas, principles and analysis process applied in regional spatial planning. Combining the GIS spatial analysis method with the scenario—planning, simulating and contrasting scenarios for regional key development zones, this study determines regional development strategies. Findings show that the GIS-SCENARIO analysis method can quantitatively analyze factors influencing the spatial distribution more accurately. Considering fully complex real situation and combined with reasonable value judgments, the GIS can provide various factors with a spatial analysis platform to contact and contrast with each other. As a strategic planning approach, it enables decision makers decide relatively reasonably in an uncertain and unpredictable situation and improves rationality in planning.
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Alizadeh, Reza, and Leili Soltanisehat. "Stay competitive in 2035: a scenario-based method to foresight in the design and manufacturing industry." foresight 22, no. 3 (February 21, 2020): 309–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-06-2019-0048.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to envision the alternative futures of the design and manufacturing industry using an integrated foresight method based on scenario planning. Also, the authors aim at developing robust strategies for an enterprise that aims to be placed as a leading high-tech international design and manufacturing company in 2035. Design/methodology/approach The proposed approach is created by integrating several foresight methods such as Delphi, scenario planning, MICMAC and cross-impact analysis. Findings Automation and sustainable development are found as the fundamental driving forces in the design and manufacturing industry. Four scenarios based on these driving forces and expert knowledge are created: innovation adaptation, forced automation (business-as-usual), sustainable era and automationless scenarios. For the developed scenarios, a set of strategies are proposed by asking experts about the strategies which can be taken to make the enterprise competitive in all developed scenarios in 2035. The main macro-level outcome is that economic and technological drivers will be the most important factors for design and manufacturing, followed by environmental and social factors. Originality/value The proposed method uses the strengths of traditional scenario planning but overcomes its weaknesses by suggesting a systematic process for scenario building and easy application.
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Polyakov, Sergej Danilovich. "On the Basics of Scenarios for the Development of Social Education." Siberian Pedagogical Journal, no. 6 (December 29, 2020): 151–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.15293/1813-4718.2006.15.
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The article describes the experience of developing scenarios for the development of Russian social education. The concept of a forecast scenario is formulated; the difference between this forecasting method and the foresight method is shown; the technology of developing a predictive scenario for social phenomena is characterized, the foundations for scenarios of the development of social education are presented (background data, description of the object and subject of the stage, scenario parameters); examples of developed scenarios are presented; their assessments by experts; correction of scenarios taking into account the new social and educational situation in 2020. On the basis of the formulated scenario provisions, new research topics are proposed for the problems of social education, the relation of predictive scenarios to the really unfolding processes in the sphere of social education is indicated.
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Polyakov, Sergej Danilovich. "On the Basics of Scenarios for the Development of Social Education." Siberian Pedagogical Journal, no. 6 (December 29, 2020): 151–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.15293/1813-4718.2006.15.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The article describes the experience of developing scenarios for the development of Russian social education. The concept of a forecast scenario is formulated; the difference between this forecasting method and the foresight method is shown; the technology of developing a predictive scenario for social phenomena is characterized, the foundations for scenarios of the development of social education are presented (background data, description of the object and subject of the stage, scenario parameters); examples of developed scenarios are presented; their assessments by experts; correction of scenarios taking into account the new social and educational situation in 2020. On the basis of the formulated scenario provisions, new research topics are proposed for the problems of social education, the relation of predictive scenarios to the really unfolding processes in the sphere of social education is indicated.
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Hou, Zhan Sheng, He Wang, Min Xu, Gang Wang, Lin Peng, Hao Lu, Zhi Feng Wang, and Peng Zhao. "A Scenario Information Space Model Construction Method Based on Grid Operation Scenario." Procedia Computer Science 166 (2020): 88–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2020.02.025.
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Tirel, Kévin, Timothée Kooyman, Christine Coquelet-Pascal, and Elsa Merle. "Coupling reactor design and scenario calculations: a promising method for scenario optimization." EPJ Nuclear Sciences & Technologies 8 (2022): 7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/epjn/2022002.
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The link between reactor design studies and scenarios calculations is usually sequential. From a list set of objectives, a reactor design is produced and passed to the scenarist in the form of a numeric irradiation model. This approach assumes that the reactor design is fixed from the scenarist perspective. The method presented in this article proposes to use a flexible reactor model, built with artificial neural networks, that gives the possibility to the scenarist to change a reactor design directly during the scenario calculations. Doing so, the reactor design is no longer an imposed parameter but a tool to find new optimal trajectories. Moreover, this flexible model is able to exploit the historical loaded fuel compositions generated by the scenario calculations in order to monitor the reactor performances over time. In this paper, the flexible reactor model construction is detailed and the interest of such method is highlighted with an application case that consists in the transition from a PWR fleet, similar to the French one, towards a PWR − SFR fleet stabilizing plutonium inventory.
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Huang, Kui, Wen Nie, and Nianxue Luo. "A Method of Constructing Marine Oil Spill Scenarios from Flat Text Based on Semantic Analysis." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 8 (April 13, 2020): 2659. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17082659.
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Constructed emergency response scenarios provide a basis for decision makers to make management decisions, and the development of such scenarios considers earlier historical cases. Over the decades, the development of emergency response scenarios has mainly implemented the elements of historic cases to describe the grade and influence of an accident. This paper focuses on scenario construction and proposes a corresponding framework based on natural language processing (NLP) using text reports of marine oil spill accidents. For each accident, the original textual reports are first divided into sentence sets corresponding to the temporal evolution. Each sentence set is regarded as a textual description of a marine oil spill scenario. A method is proposed in this paper, based on parsing, named entity recognition (NER) and open information extraction (OpenIE) to process the relation triples that are extracted from the sentence sets. Finally, the relation triples are semantically clustered into different marine oil spill domains to construct scenarios. The research results are validated and indicate that the proposed scenario construction framework can be effectively used in practical applications.
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Wibowo, Yuli, Nidya Shara Mahardika, and Lia Sumi Karmila. "PROSPEK PENGEMBANGAN MINAPOLITAN DI KABUPATEN SITUBONDO." JURNAL AGROTEKNOLOGI 14, no. 01 (August 14, 2020): 78. http://dx.doi.org/10.19184/j-agt.v14i01.16598.
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The Government of Situbondo Regency has implemented an agropolitan program in its region since 2013 to develop the potential of fisheries and marine resources. However, the program has not been able to develop as expected and still lacks the impact. This study aimed to determine the prospects for the development of the Minapolitan program in Situbondo Regency. The results of this study were expected to provide guidelines for the development of the Minapolitan program in Situbondo Regency. This study used a prospective analysis method. Method of minapolitan development strategy formulation used Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). This research produced scenarios that might occur in the future. These scenarios could serve as a guideline for the preparation of the minapolitan development strategy in Situbondo Regency. The results of the study showed that there were four scenarios will occur in the future, namely the optimistic developing scenario, the pessimistic developing scenario, there was still hope scenario and alert scenario. Based on discussions with experts, the most likely scenario to occur were an optimistic developing scenario and there was still hope scenario. Based on the scenarios that were most likely to occur, the strategy that can be applied for the development of Minapolitan in Situbondo Regency based on AHP method was to provide assistance and facilitate access to technology, markets, and capital.Keywords: analytical hierarchy process, minapolitan, prospective analysis
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Suppanich, Poonnavich, Raksanai Nidhiritdhikrai, and Weerin Wangjiraniran. "Thailand Energy Scenarios to 2035." Advanced Materials Research 962-965 (June 2014): 1782–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.962-965.1782.
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The objective of this research is to explore Thailand energy scenarios to 2035. Based on decisions focus, energy security, social acceptance, and minimal environmental impact. From the studies by scenario planning method we found two main drivers affect to the scenario decision focus, consists of vulnerability of crude oil prices and government policy sanctioned by political will. The result of this research is Thailand energy scenarios to 2035, consists of 1) Healthy scenario, 2) Reference scenario, and 3) Coma scenario.
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Wade, Belinda, and Tomas Piccinini. "Teaching Scenario Planning in Sustainability Courses: The Creative Play Method." Journal of Management Education 44, no. 6 (October 5, 2020): 699–725. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1052562920958136.
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Sustainability management is rapidly progressing from an operational task to a strategic imperative one as environmental and social concerns shape the business environment. Scenario planning is increasingly being used by companies and governments to explore the potential impact of future challenges. Applied in a management education context scenario planning offers teachers of sustainability a tool through which they can promote creativity while developing student knowledge, skills, and abilities, preparing them for work in an increasingly dynamic market environment. Within this article, an instructional innovation is presented as a two-stage workshop designed as an experiential exercise to promote creativity and generate scenarios linked to sustainability. The first stage of the workshop utilizes LEGO to generate creativity before the second stage builds on these creative foundations guiding student teams through the construction of scenarios around sustainability challenges. An evaluation is presented for the instructional innovation reporting its success in producing skills in creative thinking within cohorts of postgraduate students at a major Australian university.
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Zhang, Delong, Siyu Jiang, Jinxin Liu, Longze Wang, Yongcong Chen, Yuxin Xiao, Shucen Jiao, Yu Xie, Yan Zhang, and Meicheng Li. "Stochastic Optimization Operation of the Integrated Energy System Based on a Novel Scenario Generation Method." Processes 10, no. 2 (February 9, 2022): 330. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/pr10020330.
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The application of integrated energy systems is significant for realizing the comprehensive utilization of various energy sources and improving the utilization rate of renewable energy. At present, the optimal operation of integrated energy systems is a research hotspot. However, shortcomings remain in the stochastic optimization operation and the scenario generation method. This paper proposes a stochastic optimization operation model of an integrated energy microgrid based on an advanced multi-scenario generation method. First, this paper establishes the time-divided probability distribution model of the forecasting error of the uncertain factors, such as photovoltaic (PV) power and load, which provide the basis for generating scenarios. Moreover, the covariance matrix is used to calculate the time correlation of the time-divided probabilistic distributed models, and the parameters of the covariance matrix are optimized. Second, based on multiple typical scenarios, the stochastic optimization operation model of the integrated energy microgrid is established. Finally, the real data is used to verify the proposed method. The results show that the nonparametric kernel density estimation method has the best fitting effect. On this basis, the time correlation and the operation costs are compared with the scenario sets generated by other methods, which proves the advantages of the proposed multi-scenario generation method and stochastic optimization operation model.
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Liu, Ronghuang, Ke Lu, Yuan Zhu, and Zhihong Wu. "An Evaluation Method of Vehicle Functional Safety Controllability Based on Driver-in-the-Loop Platform." Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2173, no. 1 (January 1, 2022): 012054. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/2173/1/012054.
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Abstract Existing vehicle functional safety controllability evaluation methods are difficult to implement in practice and lack quantitative evaluation basis. In this paper, we propose a simulation-based scenario evaluation method, which can achieve verifiable, quantitative, and generalized functional safety controllability evaluation. The method focuses on the driver’s reaction model. By analyzing the driver’s behavior in emergency braking scenarios, we propose the “remaining collision distance” metrics as the controllability criterion. To investigate the reaction time of drivers in different emergencies, we experimented in a driver-in-the-loop platform and classified the scenario factors that might affect controllability. The results show that our method is feasible to evaluate the controllability of vehicle-functional safety in emergency braking scenarios.
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Neto, Luiz Santoro. "VP33 Decision Making Clinical Scenarios: A Support Method For Health Technology Assessment." International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care 33, S1 (2017): 163–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0266462317003221.
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INTRODUCTION:The method appraises the stakeholders value judgments in the Health Technology Assessment (HTA) process, through a new model of research that addresses clinical scenarios to simulate real world HTA dilemmas and support decision making. The scenarios are based on criteria, such as clinical and epidemiological elements, and also, economic, social and ethical factors. The stakeholders decisions can induce strategic impacts in different HTA fields. We agreed to call this model Decision Making Clinical Scenarios (DMCS).METHODS:The model of research is based on a cross exploratory research, through a DMCS questionnaire applied to stakeholder respondents. The first survey was composed of four scenarios. The scenarios introduce value judgments, preferences and structuring choices, under specific circumstances. The scenarios are based on trade-offs involving HTA, such as budget impact, sources of funding, patients eligibility, technology characteristics and disease epidemiology. The stakeholders points of view are analyzed, through groups that represent payers, suppliers, developers, researchers, prescribers, regulators, government, patients and society.RESULTS:The scenarios have been shown to be understandable for all stakeholders groups. When testing the model with hypothetical dilemmas through clinical scenarios, the results are strongly influenced by each presented trade-off. We can observe specific trends and motivations when analyzing the stakeholders groups separately. The results are always evaluated and validated through statistical analysis. A total of 193 stakeholders answered the survey. The majority were male (n = 104; 53.9 percent) and aged between 31 and 40 years (n = 71; 36.8 percent). In scenario 1, almost half of respondents (n = 95; 49.2 percent opted not to incorporate the new drug and in scenario 2, an even higher proportion chose not to incorporate the new drug (n = 112; 58.0 percent). In scenario 3, most have responded to not incorporate the new treatment for any age group (n = 81; 42.0 percent). In scenario 4, 65 percent of respondents opted for the preferential allocation for prevention, rather than treatment (n = 125; 64.8 percent). Overall results showed a conservative trend, considering the presented criteria and trade-offs.CONCLUSIONS:We concluded that most stakeholders are not guided only by the clinical benefit of a decision. They valorize the importance of funding mechanisms and budget control, and consider economic, social, ethical, clinical and epidemiological aspects. This study model seems to be useful to evaluate the trends of decision makers conduct. We understand that the use of clinical scenarios brings the discussion into the enviroment and dynamics of the HTA process, where outcome impacts can be analyzed properly. This model can be explored in further research, using flexible criteria for each desired scenario, through real world situations. This model can be used to evaluate impacts in strategic subjects, as budget allocation, public healthcare policies, and patient-shared decision making.
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Radeljak Kaufmann, Petra. "Scenario Method in Spatial Research and Planning." Hrvatski geografski glasnik/Croatian Geographical Bulletin 78, no. 1 (June 21, 2016): 45–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.21861/hgg.2016.78.01.03.
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HONG, JANG-EUI, and DOO-HWAN BAE. "INCREMENTAL SCENARIO MODELING USING HIERARCHICAL OBJECT-ORIENTED PETRI NET." International Journal of Software Engineering and Knowledge Engineering 11, no. 03 (June 2001): 357–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218194001000566.
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Scenario-based modeling is emerging as a key technology in software development because scenarios are easy to describe and understand, naturally describing the real world, and highly used in several development phases. Scenario-Based Software Modeling (SBSM) represents scenarios with a formal method, and then integrates each scenario into a global one excluding redundant, incomplete, and inconsistent elements. An issue which is not yet proposed a clear solution in SBSM is the handling of different abstraction levels. In the existing proposals, this problem is hidden with an implicit assumption that all such scenarios have the same abstraction levels, which we believe to be unrealistic. In our research, we propose a Hierarchical Object-Oriented Petri Net (HOONet) as a method to specify the scenarios, and also suggest a method to integrate scenarios including different abstraction levels as well as redundancy, incompleteness, and inconsistency. Coordinating abstraction levels of scenarios can be achieved by considering scenario models as state-based transition models and verifying the transition models with respect to behavioral equivalence. In order to show the effectiveness of our suggestion, overall processes of SBSM using HOONet are explained with a practical example.
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Park, Wen, Sung, and Cho. "Multiple Event-Based Simulation Scenario Generation Approach for Autonomous Vehicle Smart Sensors and Devices." Sensors 19, no. 20 (October 14, 2019): 4456. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s19204456.
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Nowadays, deep learning methods based on a virtual environment are widely applied to research and technology development for autonomous vehicle’s smart sensors and devices. Learning various driving environments in advance is important to handle unexpected situations that can exist in the real world and to continue driving without accident. For training smart sensors and devices of an autonomous vehicle well, a virtual simulator should create scenarios of various possible real-world situations. To create reality-based scenarios, data on the real environment must be collected from a real driving vehicle or a scenario analysis process conducted by experts. However, these two approaches increase the period and the cost of scenario generation as more scenarios are created. This paper proposes a scenario generation method based on deep learning to create scenarios automatically for training autonomous vehicle smart sensors and devices. To generate various scenarios, the proposed method extracts multiple events from a video which is taken on a real road by using deep learning and generates the multiple event in a virtual simulator. First, Faster-region based convolution neural network (Faster-RCNN) extracts bounding boxes of each object in a driving video. Second, the high-level event bounding boxes are calculated. Third, long-term recurrent convolution networks (LRCN) classify each type of extracted event. Finally, all multiple event classification results are combined into one scenario. The generated scenarios can be used in an autonomous driving simulator to teach multiple events that occur during real-world driving. To verify the performance of the proposed scenario generation method, experiments using real driving video data and a virtual simulator were conducted. The results for deep learning model show an accuracy of 95.6%; furthermore, multiple high-level events were extracted, and various scenarios were generated in a virtual simulator for smart sensors and devices of an autonomous vehicle.
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Jafari, Hamid, Ahmad Jonidi Jafari, Mahmoud Nekoei-Moghadam, and Salime Goharinezhad. "The use of uncertain scenarios in disaster risk reduction: a systematic review." foresight 21, no. 3 (May 30, 2019): 409–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-11-2018-0099.
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Purpose In recent years, futures study methods, especially scenario analysis, are used to plan for disaster and emergency management. Scenario method is suitable for public level policy making. Scenarios generated alternative descriptive futures in all of the development field such as disaster studies. This paper aims to systematically review the articles that generated scenarios in disaster management to attain gaps, challenges and opportunities related to use of scenario analysis in disasters. Design/methodology/approach This is a systematic review that was conducted based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The keywords that searched included “disaster,” “emergency,” “crisis,” “disruptive event,” “futures study,” “foresight,” “scenario,” “community-based scenario planning,” “participatory scenario planning,” “scenario planning” and “scenario analysis.” The Google Scholar, ISI Web of Science, Science Direct, PubMed and Scopus databases were searched. Findings A total of 981 article gathered after initial search between electronic databases. At final step, only ten articles included in the study. The selected articles compared according to many aspects. Most of the scenarios that developed in disaster management and planning concentrated on climate change and flooding related hazards. Many of studies developed three or four scenarios that it seems the number is suitable for disaster planning. Originality/value The paper serves as an original guideline for disaster planning.
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Ji, Sae-Hyun, and Joseph Ahn. "Scenario-Planning Method for Cost Estimation Using Morphological Analysis." Advances in Civil Engineering 2019 (February 18, 2019): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/4962653.
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Early cost estimates are emphasized repeatedly in the initial decision-making process to set a direction for the success of construction projects. Therefore, alternatives need to be examined, and the consequences for the cost should be analyzed carefully. This study proposes a scenario-planning method that uses morphological analysis for the estimation of construction cost. A case study was conducted using public data on 102 apartment buildings from 10 housing complex projects. The results show estimation accuracy of 4.23 to 4.86% and an average stability enhancement of 1.39 to 1.73%. The proposed process can produce adaptable scenarios and evaluate the impact of the scenarios in a complicated decision-making process with limited information provided. Furthermore, this method can provide a contingency plan to cushion against uncertainties.
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Meng, Lingjun, Qixing Zhang, Pai Liu, Haiyang He, and Wei Xu. "Influence of Agricultural Irrigation Activity on the Potential Risk of Groundwater Pollution: A Study with Drastic Method in a Semi-Arid Agricultural Region of China." Sustainability 12, no. 5 (March 4, 2020): 1954. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12051954.
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Agricultural irrigation strongly affects groundwater pollution in cultivated areas. Groundwater vulnerability was evaluated using the DRASTIC method by considering agricultural activities that affect water infiltration and pollutant transport to the groundwater. Three scenarios, using different water recharge sources and calculation methods, were considered for the Tongliao area of northern China. For Scenario 1, only precipitation contributed to the net recharge estimation and ~33.77% of the area was under high pollution risk. For Scenarios 2 and 3, both precipitation and irrigation return water were considered for net recharge estimations. The fractional areas of high pollution risk regions were 40.60% and 19.22% for Scenarios 2 and 3, respectively. The modified infiltration coefficients for this study area were used in Scenario 3, and the fractional area of the high-risk region was 21.38% lower than for Scenario 2. The use of empirical infiltration coefficients in Scenario 2 overestimated the water infiltration ability in the cultivated areas, which also overestimated the fractional area of high-risk regions in this study. Accurate assessment of the impact of agricultural activities on the groundwater pollution risk is essential for cultivated areas. Emphasis should be placed on the calculation method of proper parameters for DRASTIC model construction.
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Meiying, Wang, and Li Deheng. "Research of Practical and Scenario Method in the Teaching of Cost Accounting." International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development Volume-3, Issue-2 (February 28, 2019): 497–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.31142/ijtsrd21428.
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van Gelder, Jean-Louis, Reinout E. de Vries, Andrew Demetriou, Iris van Sintemaartensdijk, and Tara Donker. "The Virtual Reality Scenario Method: Moving from Imagination to Immersion in Criminal Decision-making Research." Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 56, no. 3 (January 7, 2019): 451–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022427818819696.
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Objectives: This study proposes an alternative hypothetical scenario method capitalizing on the potential of virtual reality (VR). Rather than asking participants to imagine themselves in a specific situation, VR perceptually immerses them in it. We hypothesized that experiencing a scenario in VR would increase feelings of being “present” in the situation, and add to perceived realism compared to the written equivalent. This, in turn, was expected to trigger stronger emotional experiences influencing subsequent behavioral intentions. Methods: In an experiment, participants ( N = 153), visitors of a large music festival, either read a “bar fight” scenario or experienced the scenario in VR. Following the scenario, they were presented a series of questions including intention to aggress, perceived risk, anticipated shame/guilt, presence, perceived realism, and anger. Analyses were conducted using analysis of variance, stepwise regression, and mediation analysis using nonparametric bootstrapping. Results: In line with expectations, the results indicate significant differences between conditions with the VR scenario triggering stronger presence, higher realism, and higher intention to aggress. Importantly, presence and anger mediated the relation between condition and intention to aggress. Conclusions: We show that the VR scenario method may provide benefits over written scenarios for the study of criminal decision-making. Implications are discussed.
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Cairns, George, Iftekhar Ahmed, Jane Mullett, and George Wright. "Scenario method and stakeholder engagement: Critical reflections on a climate change scenarios case study." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 80, no. 1 (January 2013): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.08.005.
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Kwon, Oh-Jung, Yong-Min Lee, Dong-Sook Kim, Ok-Kyung Lee, and Ji-Soo Yim. "Developing Scenario for Elderly Residents’ Behaviors at Home Using Persona-based Scenario Method." journal of the korean housing association 28, no. 3 (June 25, 2017): 65–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.6107/jkha.2017.28.3.065.
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Rubasheuski, Uladzimir, Johan Oppen, and David L. Woodruff. "Multi-stage scenario generation by the combined moment matching and scenario reduction method." Operations Research Letters 42, no. 5 (July 2014): 374–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.orl.2014.06.006.
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Silva, Dahlen, Dávid Földes, and Csaba Csiszár. "Autonomous Vehicle Use and Urban Space Transformation: A Scenario Building and Analysing Method." Sustainability 13, no. 6 (March 10, 2021): 3008. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13063008.
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The use of autonomous vehicles (AVs) has the potential to transform users’ behaviour and urban space management. Quantitative and qualitative analyses of impacts require a scenario building method. We considered the fleet size, modal share, car ownership, parking preferences, and urban space repurposing during the elaboration of a novel method. Existing scenarios and results of a questionnaire survey have been used as sources. The method was applied to build scenarios in a case study in Budapest, Hungary. The results were used to calculate the impacts on urban space management, including environmental savings. The key findings are: scenarios with significant shared AV use show that parking demand may be minimised (almost 83%) and urban space repurposing has the highest potential; furthermore, AV use and sharing acceptability may decrease the fleet size and alter the type of shared mode to multiple occupancies. The developed scenario building method serves as a base for future studies. The produced scenarios allow the researchers to focus on the analysis of the impacts caused.
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Ferris, Timothy L. J., and Stephen Barker. "System Scenario Selection Method for Faster Analysis." INCOSE International Symposium 27, no. 1 (July 2017): 641–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/j.2334-5837.2017.00384.x.
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Miller, Riel. "Futures literacy: A hybrid strategic scenario method." Futures 39, no. 4 (May 2007): 341–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2006.12.001.
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Nechvátal, Luděk. "Worst scenario method in homogenization. Linear case." Applications of Mathematics 51, no. 3 (June 2006): 263–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10492-006-0015-9.
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