Добірка наукової літератури з теми "Regulatory coherence"

AbstractChapters relating to regulatory coherence or cooperation are likely to be significant features of new preferential trade agreements, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). While the potential for harmonization of standards or institutional cooperation to impact on the regulatory autonomy of treaty parties has been well considered, this article focuses on those elements of regulatory coherence that relate to domestic processes for the development of regulations. It examines whether the adoption of ‘good regulatory practices’ in accordance with the TPP will help to ensure that measures states enact to protect non-economic interests (such as the environment or public health) are consistent with other key obligations of international trade and investment law. Although many elements of good regulatory practice mirror the criteria used to distinguish legitimate regulatory measures from disguised protectionism, there is no guarantee that a tribunal will come to the same conclusions as those reached during a domestic impact assessment.

Abstract This article posits a new taxonomy and framework for assessing regulatory coherence in the new generation of mega-regional, cross-cutting free trade agreements. Using the Trans-Pacific Partnership as the primary example, this article situates the rise of regulatory coherence within the current trade landscape, provides clear definitions of regulatory coherence, and argues that the real engine of regulatory coherence lies in the work of international standard setting organizations. This work has been little examined in the current literature. The article provides a detailed examination of the mechanics by which the Trans-Pacific Partnership promotes regulatory standardization and concludes with some normative implications and calls for future research.

Abstract The icos market has challenged financial regulators in terms of determining fit with existing regimes and consideration for regulatory reform. Regulatory divergences have emerged in a number of jurisdictions and we discuss three dominant approaches in relation to hegemonic, self-regulatory and enabling regimes. These reflect different assumptions and regulators’ understandings of the cryptoasset industry, and we argue that the ‘terms for competition’ in relation to supply and demand side needs are still being discovered and are incomplete. This provides a unique opportunity for regulators to jettison familiar assumptions in relation to corporatized securities issuers or institutional investors in order to discover what governance needs are truly at stake. This may pose challenges for coherence with existing regulation but coherence should not itself be an obstacle for learning and potentially, reform. We also argue that signs of international regulatory coordination in relation to the Libra project are not necessarily reflective of a wider trend for the cryptoasset industry. This is because regulators can apply existing and familiar financial regulation paradigms more easily to the Libra Association, in particular its leading founding member Facebook. The cryptoasset market is still likely to give rise to diversity and should facilitate the discovery of new bases for regulatory thinking and policy, uncoordinated or otherwise.

Regulatory coherence is a goal that has captured the imagination of international trade negotiators. Undeterred by the elusive nature of this holy grail, regulatory coherence is now embedded within a number modern preferential trade agreements. Using the global wine sector as an exemplar the article explores how far we have to go to achieve regulatory coherence and whether it will ever be fully achieved.

Abstract This article provides an overview of the recently concluded Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), a treaty the parties have described as comprehensive and ambitious, yet also representing a balance of competing interests. The article focuses on the TPP’s chapters relating to investment, services, intellectual property and regulatory coherence, each of which provides insight into the motivations that drove the conclusion of the TPP and the negotiating dynamics that determined its final content. In areas such as investment, the TPP takes a more balanced approach than many earlier agreements, providing greater safeguards for the regulatory autonomy of states while still embodying core protections for foreign investors. In relation to intellectual property and services, the TPP goes beyond earlier agreements in several key respects, such as preventing the imposition of local presence requirements for service providers or requiring longer copyright terms than those demanded by other international treaties. The TPP chapter on regulatory coherence is one of the most novel features of the treaty, as regulatory coherence is not frequently included in earlier trade agreements, demonstrating the increased focus of states on addressing regulatory barriers to trade and investment. While all of these elements of the TPP are interesting in their own right, given the number and size of the parties involved in the agreement, they also provide valuable guidance about the direction of other ongoing and future preferential trade agreement negotiations, such as the proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and Trade in Services Agreement (TiSA).

Abstract Global regulatory standards of due diligence, regulatory coherence, and due regard are emerging in public international law. Investment law has been concerned to settle upon the most appropriate regulatory coherence tests for application in the arbitration of regulatory disputes. Candidates have included proportionality, rationality, and reasonableness tests. This article argues instead for reliance on the due regard standard in conjunction with reasonableness or rationality testing. This will more appropriately reflect the nature of investment treaties as inter-State bargains. Further, responding to arguments for the adoption of proportionality on the basis of comparative public law, the article demonstrates that proportionality is not established as a general head of review in common law jurisdictions including England, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and South Africa. At the same time, the application of the due regard standard can have much in common with procedural proportionality testing as seen among these domestic legal systems and elsewhere.

The authors summarized EEG findings and defined the nature of the intercentral EEG relationships in different functional states in healthy subjects and patients with organic cerebral pathology, based on a coherence analysis. Similar EEG characteristics in healthy individuals were identified: an anterior-posterior gradient of average coherence levels, the type of cortical-subcortical relationships in anterior cerebral structures. Right- and left-handed individuals showed frequent and regional differences in EEG coherence, which mainly reflected specificity of intracortical relationships. Development and regression of pathology in right-and left-handed individuals with organic brain lesions were thought to be caused by these differences. Lesions of regulatory structures (diencephalic, brain stem and limbic structures) provoked a more diffused kind of changes of intercentral relationships, in contrast to cortical pathology. These changes tended to reciprocate. The dynamic nature of intercentral relationships and their interhemispheric differences was revealed when changing functional states of the brain (increase and decrease of functional level) in healthy individuals and patients with organic cerebral pathology in the process of conscious and psychic activity restoration. Changing activity predominance of certain regulatory structures was considered one of the most important factors determining the dynamic nature of EEG coherence.

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El presente estudio de caso hace un análisis de lo que son las buenas prácticas regulatorias (coherencia regulatoria) y da cuenta de la realidad en chilena en la materia. El estudio analiza el trabajo realizado por foros como la OMC, APEC y OECD en materia de buenas prácticas regulatorias, Además se estudia la propuesta hecha por Estados Unidos sobre coherencia regulatoria en el marco de las negociaciones del TPP. A modo de síntesis, es posible sostener que las buenas prácticas regulatorias: • Buscan ser una herramienta para que los países generen regulaciones más eficientes en la persecución de los objetivos de las políticas públicas que se deseen implementar. • Que las regulaciones deben ser un apoyo para entregar una solución a un problema específico que se desee resolver, y evitar que las regulaciones se conviertan en un problema más que en una solución. • Que es importante que las regulaciones no generen obstáculos innecesarios al comercio y a las inversiones, y que sean una herramienta efectiva para apoyar la liberalización comercial a nivel mundial. • Que se requieren implementar mecanismos de transparencia y participación ciudadana a la hora de generar nuevas regulaciones • Que es importante desarrollar mecanismos que midan el impacto económico y social de las regulaciones, con el fin de que éstas no generen mayores costos a la sociedad en su conjunto. • Que es necesario implementar mecanismos de coordinación y control centralizado que permita hacer regulaciones más consistentes, donde puedan intervenir todos los actores del sector público y privado que se vean afectados por una regulación. • Que es necesario que las regulaciones sean consistentes con otras regulaciones y que no generen discriminaciones. • Que es importante que las regulaciones consideren la mayor cantidad de información técnica, tecnológica o científica que esté disponible a la hora de formularlas. • Que las regulaciones promuevan la libre competencia y que minimicen comportamientos como el abuso de posición dominante, la colusión, procesos de monopolización, etc. Se estudió también la situación de Chile en materia de coherencia regulatoria. Se concluye, a la luz de los antecedentes, que si bien existe la aplicación de enfoques sectoriales en la aplicación de buenas prácticas regulatorias, no existe una institucionalidad a nivel nacional que coordine la aplicación de buenas prácticas regulatorias y tampoco existe una difusión sistemática de aplicación de buenas prácticas regulatorias en todo el aparato del estado.
This case of study presents an analysis of what are the good regulatory practices (regulatory coherence) and gives an account of the Chilean reality in the field. The study analyzes the work done through forums such as the WTO, APEC and OECD in the field of good regulatory practices, also studied the proposal made by United States on coherence regulatory within the framework of the TPP negotiations. As synthesis, it is possible to argue that good regulatory practices: • Looking be a tool for the countries to generate more efficient regulations in the pursuit of the objectives of the policies that develop. • That regulations should be a support to deliver a solution to a specific problem that the decision maker want to resolve and prevent regulations from becoming one problem rather than a solution. • It is important that the regulations do not generate unnecessary obstacles to trade and investment, and that they are an effective tool to support trade liberalization around the world. • That is necessary implement mechanisms of transparency and citizen participation in the develop of new regulations • It is important to develop mechanisms that measure the economic and social impact of regulations, so that these do not generate higher costs to society as a whole. • It is necessary to implement mechanisms for coordination and centralized control that allow to the decision makers make more consistent regulations, where all stakeholders in the public and private sectors affected by regulation may be involved. • It is necessary that the regulations are consistent with the other regulations and that does not produce discrimination. • It is important regulations to consider the most technical, technological or scientific information that is available in formulating them. • Regulations are an important a tool to promote competition and they minimize behaviors such as abuse of dominant position, collusion, processes of monopolization, etc. The situation of Chile regulatory coherence was also studied. In the light of the background, it is concluded that while there is the implementation of sector-wide approaches in the implementation of good regulatory practices, there is not an institutional framework at the national level that coordinates the implementation of good regulatory practices and there is a systematic dissemination of good regulatory practices application in the entire apparatus of the State.

Memoria (licenciado en ciencias jurídicas y sociales)
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El presente trabajo busca entregar una aproximación al concepto de Coherencia Regulatoria de conformidad al uso que se le ha dado en el contexto del Derecho Internacional Económico, especialmente en procesos de gobernanza internacional y de negociación de acuerdos internacionales de comercio. Para lograr este objetivo, el trabajo realiza un análisis de las fuentes que identifica como las raíces de la Coherencia Regulatoria como una nueva disciplina del derecho comercial económico- Asimismo, identifica los elementos que estima son esenciales de esta disciplina para finalmente dar paso a una definición del concepto y un análisis sobre el devenir de la misma en el Derecho Internacional Económico.

碩士
東吳大學
法律學系
105
Global production network is driven by intermediate service and value-added productions, where multinational firms unbundle there manufacturing stages in multiple countries ever since the development of transportation infrastructure and communication technology. However, the comparative advantage exploited from global production provokes barriers while regulatory heterogeneity from domestic regime entails costly compliance for cross border good and service supplier, thus containing spill-over effect to the International trade. This leads to the emergence of 21st century trade agreements to include behind the border commitments under regulatory coherence and cooperation chapter, requiring states to shape its domestic institution in order facilitate a better regulatory environment for trade and investment. Despite the on-going trade negotiation to reduce trade cost arising from divergent standards, the notion of such chapter seems to be unclear since the level of obligation and cooperation method applied under the substantive rules of International trade agreements remains differently. Moreover, framing an International commitment for further cooperation has always been challenging since concerns have been made that some extent of the provisions will entail possible limitation to states regulatory autonomy. This article examines the concept of regulatory coherence and cooperation by reviewing the elements applied under the content of preferential trade agreements and existing instruments of International organization, in order to take a clearer view of what the notions maybe, how those rules may include in relating to domestic regulatory process, and what features it takes to balance the need of regulatory autonomy. Furthermore, the author pays attention particularly in discussing the TPP on how it includes mechanisms to achieve greater coordination of regulation, whether it achieves in fulfiling the needs of a 21st century trade model, what hard and flexible provision it contains, how the improvement of domestic regulatory process can be made to promote cooperation between different levels of government in delivering quality regulations.

The regulatory framework for the Australian university has brought about a radical transformation of the Australian university. The changes to the framework shifted the burden for resourcing from government to students and introduced a wide variety of competition based regulatory instruments. The Australian university has been successful in generating these resources, primarily from selling education to international students and has become a world-leader in the export of higher education. However, the other effects of the regulatory changes have been less positive. The thesis seeks to evaluate the regulatory change from the perspective of regulatory coherence. That is, rather than political or economic evaluations, the thesis examines the regulation from a legal, mechanical perspective. The changes to the regulation reflect a broader societal shift from the welfare state to the regulatory state. For regulation to be successful it must be coherent within itself including taking adequate account of the extant institutions and social arrangements. This thesis provides a coherence analysis of the regulation. It is composed of eight chapters. After the introductory chapter, the thesis commences with a chapter reviewing regulatory theory and developing a theory of regulatory coherence. This theory is a new theory which facilitates a focus on the mechanical aspects of the regulation. The next chapter develops the analysis by examining the regulatory framework. This part of the thesis provides detailed analysis of the regulation, in particular, its instruments and accountability structures. It then turns in Chapter 4 to examine the policy-regulatory questions of public versus private providing a basis for evaluation of coherence. Next it turns in Chapters 5 and 6 to an examination of the institution of the university and its corporate organisational form. To capture the complexity of the university, the thesis takes an interdisciplinary view of the phenomenon. The penultimate chapter then provides an evaluation of the regulatory framework as against theory of regulatory coherence. The concluding chapter of the thesis reiterates the finding that fundamental incoherence impairs the well functioning of the institution and its organisations.
Prof Stephen Bottomley

Potentially global regulatory standards are emerging from the environmental and health jurisprudence of the International Court of Justice, the World Trade Organization, under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and investor-state dispute settlement. Most prominent are the three standards of regulatory coherence, due regard for the rights of others, and due diligence in the prevention of harm. These global regulatory standards are a phenomenon of our times, representing a new contribution to the ordering of the relationship between domestic and international law, and inferring a revised conception of sovereignty in an increasingly pluralistic global legal era. However, considered with regard to jurisprudential theory on relative authority, the legitimacy of the resulting ‘standards-enriched’ international law remains open to question. Procedurally, although they are well-placed to provide valuable input, international courts and tribunals should not be the only fora in which these standards are elaborated. Substantively, challenges and opportunities lie ahead in the ongoing development of global regulatory standards. Debate over whether regulatory coherence should go beyond reasonableness and rationality requirements and require proportionality in the relationship between regulatory measures and their objectives is central. Due regard, the most novel of the emerging standards, may help protect international law’s legitimacy claims in the interim. Meanwhile, all actors should attend to the integration rather than the fragmentation of international law, and to changes in the status of private actors.

With regards to global trade, where new technologies impact both on what is traded and how, this chapter sketches the current regulatory landscape and projects the implications of emerging technologies for future regulatory approaches. While the regulation of technology mainly rests with domestic law, it is international trade law that addresses problems of regulatory diversity, overcomes unnecessary barriers to international trade and investment, and articulates common standards. Apart from general principles of non-discrimination and transparency, technology is particularly addressed by rules of intellectual property protection and by technical regulations and standards for industrial and nutritional products. For international trade law to respond to the challenges of legitimacy and democratic accountability, there need to be new approaches to regulatory cooperation and coherence, operating within a proper framework of multi-level governance that harnesses the process of globalization which is much driven by technological advances.

Online anarchy? Far from it: as this study convincingly shows, norms matter online. In a tour de force, internet law expert Matthias C. Kettemann analyses the genesis, ontology, and legitimation of rule and rules on the internet. Innovatively, the study establishes the emergence of a normative order of the internet, an order that integrates norms materially and normatively connected to the use and development of the internet at three different levels (regional, national, international), of two types (privately and publicly authored), and of different character (from ius cogens to technical standards). Centrifugal forces contribute to normative redundancies (“normative froth”), real conflicts of norms between regulatory layers and geographically bounded normative spheres (“normative friction”), substantial structural problems (“normative fractures”), and political, commercial, and technological fragmentation of the internet. But these forces of normative disorder can be countered. As the study impressively shows, a normative turn has taken place on the internet. The rules on rule-making that have developed within the normative order of the internet explain, predict, and legitimize the creation of new norms through processes of self-learning normativity. These norms are then assessed for their internal coherence, consonance with other order norms, and consistency with the order’s finality. The normative order of the internet is based on and produces a liquefied system characterized by self-learning normativity. Thus a theory of normativity (“of the law”) that goes back to Kant needs to be fundamentally rethought: with norm-based self-organization as the principle of life that enables the transcendental constitution of normativityon the internet.

The world’s oceans constitute a single, interconnected planetary system, and their effective protection, therefore, demands an integrated approach. Yet, the decentralized nature of the international legal order means that the challenges for coordination are immense. Chapter 10 explains the difficulties of developing a coherent and comprehensive legal framework for the protection of the marine environment, with a particular focus on the challenges of promoting multipurpose marine protected areas in light of the proliferation of sectoral regulatory regimes. The chapter then assesses the possible mechanisms for promoting coordination between relevant treaties. Both top-down global coordination of environmental protection and bottom-up cooperation are considered. The prospects for this issue to be addressed through the ongoing negotiations on a new legally binding instrument for the conservation of marine biodiversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction are also taken into account.

This edited volume is based on the European Law Institute's project, 'The Prevention and Resolution of Conflicts of Exercise of Jurisdiction in Criminal Law', co-ordinated by the European Law Institute (ELI) and the University of Luxembourg. The project ran from 2013 to 2017 and was conducted under the auspices of the ELI and the Luxembourg National Research Fund (FNR). The study sought to explore options for a coherent regulatory mechanism for the prevention and settlement of conflicts of jurisdiction in criminal law. Currently, there is no binding instrument establishing a mechanism to resolve conflicts of (exercising) jurisdiction in criminal matters in the EU, although such a mechanism is essential for the effective functioning of a European criminal justice area based on mutual recognition. Building on empirical research and a comparison with civil law solutions to the problem of conflicts of jurisdiction, this volume seeks to impact the EU policy debate by proposing three fully-formed models for legislative action, coupled with extensive analysis of related themes.

Abstract Until recently, the commercial determinants have remained largely absent from conceptual frameworks of the social determinants of health, despite their clear importance to health and well-being. This is especially challenging because even a single large industry sector can have a profound, intersectional impact on sociocultural and physical environments. Such a sector can affect everything from the consumption patterns of a particular product and the health and social problems caused by those patterns of consumption to the social norms surrounding when and how much of it people use, the tax and regulatory frameworks surrounding it, the science regarding its harms and benefits, how policymakers view the problem and its causes, and the framing of possible solutions. The commercial determinants of health are emerging as a field of study in their own right; however, currently, there is no book that seeks to synthesize current definitions, frameworks, and empirical research into a coherent research and translational entity and to help the field make the leap to its next level. This book aims to fill that gap by making the case for why commercial determinants of health matter and discussing what is known about them, examples of the ways in which they affect population health, and ways to research and influence them as the field continues to grow and evolve.

AbstractOver the past decade the study of internet governance and platform regulation has evolved into a new, socially engaged regulatory field. This chapter introduces regulatory debates surrounding the rise of digital communications platforms and their similarities to media companies. It considers the growth of regulatory activism in response to platformisation and the ‘techlash’, disputes about platform companies’ intermediary liability, and their resistance to legal controls. The chapter also explores the distinction between regulation and governance strategies, emphasising the challenges of self-regulation. It introduces core concerns of the contributors including: how we might address platforms’ dire impact on public interest journalism; how we can develop coherent, transparent, and convergent regulatory frameworks for tackling platform power; how we might analyse and monitor platforms’ new datafied, participatory advertising operations; how we can foster local content and conceive the politics of discoverability in an age of global streaming services; why platforms might have more in common with telecommunications than media companies, and, fundamentally, why governments’ early support for platform self-regulation and governance has shifted in response to political and economic transformations.

Part II comprises two chapters, Chapter Three and Chapter Four. These chapters together investigate the decisions and advisory opinions of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) and United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) Annex VII tribunals, as well as other Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) cases. The courts and tribunals studied in these chapters make use of a broad range of interpretive methodologies in identifying emerging global regulatory standards, including reliance on the inbuilt logic of the regulatory schemes they are applying. The standards articulated make relatively minimal demands on domestic legal systems compared with more demanding standards that could have been developed. In this respect the standards appear to enhance traditional procedural justifications for international law’s claim to legitimate authority. Chapter Three focuses on tests for ‘regulatory coherence’.

Part IV comprises two chapters, Chapter Seven and Chapter Eight. These chapters focus on investment treaty arbitration. Chapter Seven identifies the regulatory coherence tests emerging under each of the core investment protection guarantees. Fair and equitable treatment guarantees require host States’ regulatory measures to bear reasonable relationships to rational policies. National treatment guarantees call for a reasonable nexus to a rational government policy. The law on expropriation increasingly incorporates the understanding that reasonable measures adopted in good faith to address a real public health or environmental concern are ‘for a public purpose’. These tests all tend to accommodate domestic level decision-making, allowing room for the operation of democratic processes rather than envisaging an international legal override. This will assist with traditional procedural justifications for authority at the domestic and international level.

The three global regulatory standards seen in the disputes studied in this book comprise: a regulatory coherence standard calling for certain relationships between regulatory measures and their purposes, a standard requiring that a regulating State has demonstrated due regard for the interests of other States, and a standard requiring the exercise of due diligence in the exercise of States’ obligations to prevent transboundary harm. These three core regulatory standards consistently characterise the environmental and health disputes in this book, and they appear to be gaining status as global regulatory standards for the future. The appearance of regulatory standards is best understood as an aspect of the functioning of the plural world legal order rather than as a constitutionalisation of this order in a stronger sense. Theories of legitimate authority in plural legal orders cast valuable light on the legitimacy of the emerging standards-enriched international law.

Chapter Six continues Chapter Five’s examination of the regulatory coherence standard in WTO dispute settlement, this time focusing on ‘rational relationship’ testing under the non-discrimination provisions in the chapeau to the GATT and GATS general exceptions, as well as under the TBT and SPS Agreements. WTO non-discrimination jurisprudence looks for a rational relationship between a regulatory measure’s otherwise discriminatory aspects and the measure’s policy objectives. Rational relationship tests, like necessity tests, embody the emerging global regulatory standard of regulatory coherence, calling for a certain relationship between trade measures and their objectives. Like necessity testing, rational relationship testing lends itself to application in a way that accommodates decision-making at the domestic level on matters requiring important value judgements.

The Technical Specifications (TS) of a nuclear power plant define the conditions for a safe normal operation. With such an objective, the TS set limits on operational parameters of the plant and give surveillance requirements for the observation of such bounds. The values of TS limits are obtained from the safety analyses of the plant. In fact, the traditional conservative methodologies of deterministic safety analysis (DSA) have been profusely used in this task. Nevertheless, in recent years realistic (also termed BEPU) methodologies have started to replace the conservative ones. This new methodologies use realistic models and assumptions and implement techniques for performing uncertainty analysis of their results. Many of them are statistical, with a probabilistic representation of uncertainty, and based on the random sampling of uncertain inputs and uncertainty propagation to the outputs. In this paper the relation between BEPU safety analyses and TS is analyzed. The authors have a deep regulatory experience in the evaluation and licensing of DSA methodologies. Safety analyses are aimed at showing that the real operation of the plant is safe, but they have a stronger goal: to prove that the allowed operation of the plant is safe. BEPU methodologies are not fitted for the estimation of TS bounds. They rather are used to prove the coherence of the safety analysis with the preestablished TS. Procedures for proving such coherence, with different degree of strictness, are discussed in the case of Monte Carlo-based methodologies.

Attributed networks are pervasive in different domains, ranging from social networks, gene regulatory networks to financial transaction networks. This kind of rich network representation presents challenges for anomaly detection due to the heterogeneity of two data representations. A vast majority of existing algorithms assume certain properties of anomalies are given a prior. Since various types of anomalies in real-world attributed networks co-exist, the assumption that priori knowledge regarding anomalies is available does not hold. In this paper, we investigate the problem of anomaly detection in attributed networks generally from a residual analysis perspective, which has been shown to be effective in traditional anomaly detection problems. However, it is a non-trivial task in attributed networks as interactions among instances complicate the residual modeling process. Methodologically, we propose a learning framework to characterize the residuals of attribute information and its coherence with network information for anomaly detection. By learning and analyzing the residuals, we detect anomalies whose behaviors are singularly different from the majority. Experiments on real datasets show the effectiveness and generality of the proposed framework.

The study of industrial games of innovation is often associated with dominant theories representing various generic forms of organizational design and dynamics. The dominant theories in this area were traditionally Schumpeter’s destructive innovation, Porter’s five-force competitive analysis and Nalebuff’s value net. Other frameworks for analyzing industrial behavior include game theory and its derivative innovation games theory. For regulated high-technology industries, theoretical frameworks that do not account for interfirm coordination are often insufficient to understand or predict the industry behavior. Innovation in the aviation simulation and training industry will be presented in this paper as typical of the regulated high-technology industries. The aviation simulation and training industry emerged at the turn of the twentieth century and it was mostly demand-driven at its onset. The increase in the volume and importance of aviation resulted in government regulation of the industry in the late 1960’s. This has radically changed the industry’s game of innovation into a regulation-based coordination game. Literature described the regulation-centered innovation coordination as “an internally-coherent system of innovation.” The new game had the regulatory frameworks at the core of the innovation process as they defined the market’s acceptance and value capturing from innovative technologies. The evolution of these regulatory frameworks was almost entirely reactive to accidents and catastrophic failures that highlighted existing deficiencies in training methodologies or technologies. This ex-ante regulator-driven system of innovation exhibited recent evolutionary changes towards being a pedagogy-centered service-based system of innovation. The reason behind this transformation was a combination of endogenous and exogenous forces. Technological opportunities, economic pressures and strategic transformation by industry leaders were the three main categories of these forces. The resulting mode of innovation coordination in the industry was a service-oriented pedagogical platform, lead by supplier-user partnerships and monitored by regulation authorities. Compliance to equipment regulatory guidelines is not the principal means of value creation anymore. Rather, the pedagogic value of the training curriculum, encompassing the training devices, is the main source of value creation. A new stable equilibrium of innovation coordination is being reached by the industry, driven by its downstream-most service provision component.

AEROFLEX - AEROdynamic and FLEXible Trucks for Next Generation of Long Distance Road Transport –project, which receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 769658, started in October 2017 with the objective of developing and demonstrating new technologies, concepts and architectures for complete vehicles that are energy efficient, safe, comfortable, configurable and cost-effective, while ensuring that the varying need of costumers are satisfied by being flexible and adaptable with respect to the continuously changing operational conditions. In order to understand the origin of this project, an overview of the previous initiatives will be introduced and the main take away messages will be adopted. Projects used as a baseline are: TRANSFORMERS project - Grant Agreement No. 605170, FALCON Project - CEDR Call 2015 Freight and Logistics in a Multimodal Context, and finally, FLUXNET - CEDR Call 2015 Freight and Logistics in a Multimodal Context. In addition, one of the main pillars of AEROFLEX project is the drafting of coherent recommendations for revising standards and legislative frameworks in order to allow the new aerodynamic and flexible vehicle concepts on the road. These recommendations will be addressed to policy-makers, authorities and industry on standardization. This input will count with the support of the AEROFLEX Sounding Board, which is a group of experts that comprises key representative from authorities, policymakers, freight logistics operators and industry. At the end of the project, by 2021, these recommendations will be compiled in a handbook, which will be submitted to the European Commission. This paper summarizes the results and outputs obtained so far. It comprises the State of the Art with regards to the current regulatory framework, the current boundaries and constraints within the European transport and logistics industry are identified and the results from the workshops organized with the Sounding Board members.

The Multi-Agency Radiation Survey and Site Investigation Manual (MARSSIM) was developed as a multi-agency framework for supporting radioactive site closure in the United States. MARSSIM provides a coherent, technically defensible process for establishing that exposed surfaces (soil or structure) satisfy site cleanup requirements. Site cleanup requirements are assumed to be dose or risk-derived. Unfortunately, many sites have complications that challenge a direct application of MARSSIM. Example complications include decision documents requirements that are not MARSSIM-friendly, the potential for subsurface contamination, and incomplete characterization information. These types of complications are typically the rule, rather than the exception, for sites undergoing radiologically-driven remediation and closure. This paper discusses approaches used to circumvent MARSSIM-related closure issues, while still providing a technically defensible closure protocol that is consistent with the spirit of MARSSIM and acceptable to the regulatory and broader stakeholder community.

Th e European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) issued a consultation paper on the 13th March 2020, proposing guidelines on information and communication technology (ICT) security and governance, which will apply from 1st July 2021. In this paper, we aim to determine the perceived eff ectiveness, (i.e. effi ciency, relevance, coherence and benefi t) of the proposed guidelines, by carrying out a survey and discussions with targeted users (Practitioners / Controllers / Regulators in the area of Insurance) and bringing to light their various concerns and recommendations. Th ese guidelines are very superfi cial and generic and they do not reach the purpose for what they were set. Moreover, although they require that specifi c identifi ed risks are addressed they are not specifi c in addressing the how and when and leave it up to the organisations to determine this. Measurability of results is another issue, which makes it very diffi cult for compliance and enforcement to determine when and how to act, even in terms of proportionality. Th erefore, although the guidelines are clear in what they want to achieve, their eff ectiveness of the approach leaves much to be desired and is considered by respondents as creating more confusion than good and can turn out to be just another scope for duplication of eff orts and data collection overspill with no added value.

Thermal striping generally is recognized as a significant long-term degradation mechanism in the primary cooling water circuit of nuclear power plants (NPPs). This phenomenon occurs by mixing of hot and cold water streams in the primary coolant loop. Depending on the flow configuration, the turbulent mixing process can lead to thermal striping, temperature fluctuations in the T-junction region, thermal fatigue, and crack generation in the associated structure. The objective of this study is to provide an in-depth look into the underlying physics for thermal fatigue to determine appropriate screening criteria and risk significance for the regulatory safety evaluation process. In addition, the structure of turbulence in the T-junction also is investigated. The computational method comprised of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) modeling to simulate turbulence and Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) analysis to capture the coherent structures and turbulence scales. In addition, Conjugate Heat Transfer (CHT) analyses have been performed to predict the thermal field and temperature distribution in the solid piping material of the T-junction. Finally, the corresponding thermal stress in the solid pipe is estimated based on a simplified one-dimensional model to assess the thermal-structure degradation.

Within most pipeline organizations, maintenance and other facility departments use a range of separate data sources and applications to manage the integrity, maintenance and safety of their pipelines. These databases represent a significant investment over many years and are an integral part of day-to-day operations. It is evident that integration of data into a single, coherent data management system can provide significant benefits. However, the cost of implementing entirely new systems — with intensive data capture programs — is difficult to justify given the earlier investments. As a result, dedicated risk management software using static and separately maintained data is often used as a quick, low cost alternative to meet regulatory compliance commitments. Experience has shown that, with the right technology and an understanding of the specific needs of an organisation, a phased approach to integrated data management can be achieved at minimum initial cost by exploiting legacy data. This provides a low cost yet scalable solution that can grow with the changing needs of the business. In addition to the benefits of legacy data integration, this paper presents an insight into the additional benefits of technologies for distributed data access to provide simple, process-focussed reporting tools. The key role of data management in risk assessment and consequent integrity decision support process is discussed.

The role of Nirex is to provide the UK with safe, environmentally sound and publicly acceptable options for the long-term management of radioactive materials. This will include all intermediate-level waste and some low-level waste (ILW and LLW). Nirex has developed a Phased Disposal Concept based on conditioning the wastes then isolating them deep underground. Based on this phased disposal concept, Nirex advises waste producers on the conditioning and packaging of radioactive waste. The ILW and LLW which comprise the ‘reference volume’ of the Phased Disposal Concept contain approximately 5 t Pu-239 and 28 t U-235. Nirex’s work is based on a number of standards for safety and environmental protection set by the Government. Three different Regulators ensure application of these standards in the transport, operation and post-closure phases. Therefore a coherent approach to criticality safety is required. The approach to criticality safety begins by avoiding criticality resulting from the way in which the waste is packaged, by controlling the package design including the level of fissile material. The concept safety assessments will support a screening level of approximately 5 g Pu-239 equivalent. In specific cases where waste producers indicate that their proposed packages will not comply with the screening level, package-specific criticality safety assessments can be incorporated into the concept through the change control process. Engineering measures are available to prevent criticality for such time as the waste packaging affords a high level of containment. In the long term, however, after deterioration of the physical containment provided by the waste packages, there would be the possibility of movement of fissile material out of the waste packages and subsequent accumulation into new configurations which could in principle lead to a criticality. It is conceivable that a criticality could adversely impact on the performance of a repository after closure because, for example, of the heat that would be produced affecting the engineered barriers. It is therefore necessary to consider the post-closure criticality safety of the repository concept. Nirex is currently undertaking a programme of work on ‘understanding criticality under repository conditions’. The aim of the programme is to obtain a better understanding of the processes that would control the nature and magnitude of a criticality under the particular conditions of the concept repository. An essential component of demonstrating criticality safety is to ensure waste packagers develop operating arrangements, and provide objective evidence in the form of criticality compliance assurance documentation, to demonstrate how fissile material will be controlled to meet levels defined in concept criticality safety assessments. This paper will describe the coherent approach and the processes by which it is applied.

20 years ago a concept of “Green Chemistry” was formulated by Paul Anastas and John Warner, aiming at an ambitious agenda to “green” chemical products and processes. Today the concept, laid down in a set of 12 principles, has found support in various arenas. This diffusion was supported by enhancements of the legislative framework; not only in the European Union. Nevertheless industry actors – whilst generally supporting the idea – still see “cost and perception remain barriers to green chemistry uptake”. Thus, the questions arise how additional incentives as well as measures to address the barriers and impediments can be provided. An analysis addressing these questions has to take into account the institutional context for the relevant actors involved in the issue. And it has to reflect the problem perception of the different stakeholders. The supply chain into which the chemicals are distributed are of pivotal importance since they create the demand pull for chemicals designed in accordance with the “Green Chemistry Principles”. Consequently, the scope of this study includes all stages in a chemical’s life-cycle, including the process of designing and producing the final products to which chemical substances contribute. For each stage the most relevant legislative acts, together establishing the regulatory framework of the “chemicals policy” in the EU are analysed. In a nutshell the main elements of the study can be summarized as follows: Green Chemistry (GC) is the utilisation of a set of principles that reduces or eliminates the use or generation of hazardous substances in the design, manufacture and application of chemical products. Besides, reaction efficiency, including energy efficiency, and the use of renewable resources are other motives of Green Chemistry. Putting the GC concept in a broader market context, however, it can only prevail if in the perception of the relevant actors it is linked to tangible business cases. Therefore, the study analyses the product context in which chemistry is to be applied, as well as the substance’s entire life-cycle – in other words, the six stages in product innovation processes): 1. Substance design, 2. Production process, 3. Interaction in the supply chain, 4. Product design, 5. Use phase and 6. After use phase of the product (towards a “circular economy”). The report presents an overview to what extent the existing framework, i.e. legislation and the wider institutional context along the six stages, is setting incentives for actors to adequately address problematic substances and their potential impacts, including the learning processes intended to invoke creativity of various actors to solve challenges posed by these substances. In this respect, measured against the GC and Learning Process assessment criteria, the study identified shortcomings (“delta”) at each stage of product innovation. Some criteria are covered by the regulatory framework and to a relevant extent implemented by the actors. With respect to those criteria, there is thus no priority need for further action. Other criteria are only to a certain degree covered by the regulatory framework, due to various and often interlinked reasons. For those criteria, entry points for options to strengthen or further nuance coverage of the respective principle already exist. Most relevant are the deltas with regard to those instruments that influence the design phase; both for the chemical substance as such and for the end-product containing the substance. Due to the multi-tier supply chains, provisions fostering information, communication and cooperation of the various actors are crucial to underpin the learning processes towards the GCP. The policy options aim to tackle these shortcomings in the context of the respective stage in order to support those actors who are willing to change their attitude and their business decisions towards GC. The findings are in general coherence with the strategies to foster GC identified by the Green Chemistry & Commerce Council.

Despite increased efforts to improve safety in recent years (e.g., the Focus Cities Program in California), California continues to have a high rate of pedestrian and bicyclist fatalities. Currently, the state currently lacks a cohesive messaging strategy to improve behaviors related to pedestrian and cyclist traffic safety practices. To fulfill this need, this research showcases the differential effect of message framing on attitudes and intended behaviors related to pedestrian and cyclists traffic safety practices. This project investigated factors & risky behaviors contributing to accidents involving vulnerable road users, preventive measures to decrease accidents involving vulnerable road users, and more. The qualitative analysis presented a significant lack of coherent, long-term, evidence-based communication strategies that aimed at enhancing the safety of vulnerable road users in California. Quantitatively, this research also experimentally investigated various messages, employing different time horizons and regulatory focus message framings. Findings indicate that the messages with a limited time horizon tend to be associated with better safety perceptions and attitudes than messages with an expansive time horizon. California transportation authorities, professionals, and advocacy groups will be able to use this information to effectively allocate the communication effort and spending to induce attitudinal and behavioral change that can impact the safety of active transportation modes.

Despite increased efforts to improve safety in recent years (e.g., the Focus Cities Program in California), California continues to have a high rate of pedestrian and bicyclist fatalities. Currently, the state currently lacks a cohesive messaging strategy to improve behaviors related to pedestrian and cyclist traffic safety practices. To fulfill this need, this research showcases the differential effect of message framing on attitudes and intended behaviors related to pedestrian and cyclists traffic safety practices. This project investigated factors & risky behaviors contributing to accidents involving vulnerable road users, preventive measures to decrease accidents involving vulnerable road users, and more. The qualitative analysis presented a significant lack of coherent, long-term, evidence-based communication strategies that aimed at enhancing the safety of vulnerable road users in California. Quantitatively, this research also experimentally investigated various messages, employing different time horizons and regulatory focus message framings. Findings indicate that the messages with a limited time horizon tend to be associated with better safety perceptions and attitudes than messages with an expansive time horizon. California transportation authorities, professionals, and advocacy groups will be able to use this information to effectively allocate the communication effort and spending to induce attitudinal and behavioral change that can impact the safety of active transportation modes.

Approximately 90% of the pharmaceutical inspectors in a pharmacy practice regulatory agency in West Africa have not updated their training on Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) inspection in at least eight years. However, in the last two years the inspectors relied on learning-on-the job skills. During this time, the agency introduced about 17% of its inspectors to hands-on GMP trainings. GMP is the part of quality assurance that ensures the production or manufacture of medicinal products is consistent in order to control the quality standards appropriate for their intended use as required by the specification of the product. Inspection reports on the Agency’s GMP inspection format in-between 2013 to 2019 across the six geopolitical zones in the country were reviewed retrospectively for gap analysis. Sampling was done in two phases. During the first phase sampling of reports was done by random selection, using a stratified sampling method. In the second phase, inspectors from the Regulatory Agency from different regions were contacted on phone to send in four reports each by email. For those that forwarded four reports, two, were selected. However for those who forwarded one or two, all were considered. Also, the Agency’s inspection format/checklist was compared with the World Health Organization (WHO) GMP checklist and the GMP practice observed. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the reporting skills and the ability of inspectors to interpret findings vis-à-vis their proficiency in inspection activities hence the efficiency of the system. Secondly, the study seeks to establish shortfalls or adequacies of the Agency’s checklist with the aim of reviewing and improving in-line with best global practices. It was observed that different inspectors have different styles and methods of writing reports from the same check-list/inspection format, leading to non-conformances. Interpretations of findings were found to be subjective. However, it was also observed that inspection reports from the few inspectors with the hands-on training in the last two year were more coherent. This indicates that pharmaceutical inspectors need to be trained regularly to increase their knowledge and skills in order to be kept on the same pace. It was also observed that there is a slight deviation in placing sub indicators under the GMP components in the Agency’s GMP inspection format, as compared to the WHO checklist.

The shoot apical meristem establishes plant architecture by continuously producing new lateral organs such as leaves, axillary meristems and flowers throughout the plant life cycle. This unique capacity is achieved by a group of self-renewing pluripotent stem cells that give rise to founder cells, which can differentiate into multiple cell and tissue types in response to environmental and developmental cues. Cell fate specification at the shoot apical meristem is programmed primarily by transcription factors acting in a complex gene regulatory network. In this project we proposed to provide significant understanding of meristem maintenance and cell fate specification by studying four transcription factors acting at the meristem. Our original aim was to identify the direct target genes of WUS, STM, KNAT6 and CNA transcription factor in a genome wide scale and the manner by which they regulate their targets. Our goal was to integrate this data into a regulatory model of cell fate specification in the SAM and to identify key genes within the model for further study. We have generated transgenic plants carrying the four TF with two different tags and preformed chromatin Immunoprecipitation (ChIP) assay to identify the TF direct target genes. Due to unforeseen obstacles we have been delayed in achieving this aim but hope to accomplish it soon. Using the GR inducible system, genetic approach and transcriptome analysis [mRNA-seq] we provided a new look at meristem activity and its regulation of morphogenesis and phyllotaxy and propose a coherent framework for the role of many factors acting in meristem development and maintenance. We provided evidence for 3 different mechanisms for the regulation of WUS expression, DNA methylation, a second receptor pathway - the ERECTA receptor and the CNA TF that negatively regulates WUS expression in its own domain, the Organizing Center. We found that once the WUS expression level surpasses a certain threshold it alters cell identity at the periphery of the inflorescence meristem from floral meristem to carpel fate [FM]. When WUS expression highly elevated in the FM, the meristem turn into indeterminate. We showed that WUS activate cytokinine, inhibit auxin response and represses the genes required for root identity fate and that gradual increase in WUCHEL activity leads to gradual meristem enlargement that affect phyllotaxis. We also propose a model in which the direction of WUS domain expansion laterally or upward affects meristem structure differently. We preformed mRNA-seq on meristems with different size and structure followed by k-means clustering and identified groups of genes that are expressed in specific domains at the meristem. We will integrate this data with the ChIP-seq of the 4 TF to add another layer to the genetic network regulating meristem activity.

1.1 Resumen macroeconómico En el segundo trimestre la economía enfrentó varios choques, principalmente de oferta y de costos, la mayoría de los cuales no fueron anticipados, o los previstos fueron más persistentes de lo esperado, y que en conjunto interrumpieron la recuperación de la actividad económica observada a comienzos de año y llevaron la inflación total a niveles superiores a la meta. La inflación básica (sin alimentos ni regulados: SAR) aumentó, pero se mantuvo baja y acorde con lo esperado por el equipo técnico. A comienzos de abril se inició una tercera ola de pandemia, más acentuada y prolongada que la anterior, con un elevado costo en vidas humanas y algún impacto negativo en la recuperación económica. Entre mayo y mediados de junio los bloqueos de las carreteras y los problemas de orden público tuvieron un fuerte efecto negativo sobre la actividad económica y la inflación. Se estima que la magnitud de estos dos choques combinados habría generado una caída en niveles en el producto interno bruto (PIB) con respecto al primer trimestre del año. Adicionalmente, los bloqueos causaron un aumento significativo de los precios de los alimentos. A estos choques se sumaron los efectos acumulados de la disrupción global en algunas cadenas de valor y el incremento en los fletes internacionales que desde finales de 2020 vienen generando restricciones de oferta y aumentos de costos. Todos estos factores, que afectaron principalmente el índice de precios al consumidor (IPC) de bienes y de alimentos, explicaron la mayor parte del error de pronóstico del equipo técnico y el aumento de la inflación total a niveles superiores a la meta del 3 %. El incremento en la inflación básica y de los precios de los regulados fue acorde con lo esperado por el equipo técnico, y se explica principalmente por la eliminación de varios alivios de precios otorgados un año atrás. A todo esto se suma la mayor percepción de riesgo soberano y las presiones al alza que esto implica sobre el costo de financiamiento externo y la tasa de cambio. A pesar de los fuertes choques negativos, el crecimiento económico esperado para la primera mitad del año (9,1%), es significativamente mayor que lo proyectado en el informe de abril (7,1%), signo de una economía más dinámica que se recuperaría más rápido de lo previsto. Desde finales de 2020 las diferentes cifras de actividad económica han mostrado un crecimiento mayor que el esperado. Esto sugiere que los efectos negativos sobre el producto de las recurrentes olas de contagio estarían siendo cada vez menos fuertes y duraderos. No obstante, la tercera ola de contagio del Covid-19, y en mayor medida los bloqueos a las vías y los problemas de orden público, habrían generado una caída del PIB durante el segundo trimestre, frente al primero. Pese a lo anterior, los datos del índice de seguimiento a la economía (ISE) de abril y mayo han resultado mayores que lo esperado, y las nuevas cifras de actividad económica sectoriales sugieren que el impacto negativo de la pandemia sobre el producto se sigue moderando, en un entorno de menores restricciones a la movilidad y de mayor avance en el ritmo de vacunación. Los registros de transporte de carga (junio) y la demanda de energía no regulada (julio), entre otros, indican una recuperación importante después de los bloqueos en mayo. Con todo lo anterior, el incremento anual del PIB del segundo trimestre se habría situado alrededor del 17,3 % (antes 15,8 %), explicado en gran parte por una base baja de comparación. Para todo 2021 el equipo técnico incrementó su proyección de crecimiento desde un 6 % hasta el 7,5 %. Este pronóstico, que está rodeado de una incertidumbre inusualmente elevada, supone que no se presentarán problemas de orden público y que posibles nuevas olas de contagio del Covid-19 no tendrán efectos negativos adicionales sobre la actividad económica. Frente al pronóstico del informe pasado, la recuperación de la demanda externa, los niveles de precios de algunos bienes básicos que exporta el país y la dinámica de las remesas de trabajadores han sido mejores que las esperadas y seguirían impulsando la recuperación del ingreso nacional en lo que resta del año. A esto se sumaría la aún amplia liquidez internacional, la aceleración en el proceso de vacunación y las bajas tasas de interés, factores que continuarían favoreciendo la actividad económica. La mejor dinámica del primer semestre, que llevó a una revisión al alza en el crecimiento de todos los componentes del gasto, continuaría hacia adelante y, antes de lo esperado en abril, la economía recuperaría los niveles de producción de 2019 a finales de 2021. El pronóstico continúa incluyendo efectos de corto plazo sobre la demanda agregada de una reforma tributaria de magnitud similar a la proyectada por el Gobierno. Con todo eso, en el escenario central de este informe, el pronóstico de crecimiento para 2021 es del 7,5 % y para 2022 del 3,1 %. A pesar de esto, el nivel de la actividad económica seguiría siendo inferior a su potencial. La mejora en estas proyecciones, sin embargo, está rodeada de una alta incertidumbre. En junio la inflación anual (3,63 %) aumentó más de lo esperado debido al comportamiento del grupo de alimentos, mientras que la inflación básica (1,87 %) fue similar a la proyectada. En lo que resta del año el mayor nivel del IPC de alimentos persistiría y contribuiría a mantener la inflación por encima de la meta. A finales de 2022 la inflación total y básica retornarían a tasas cercanas al 3 %, en un entorno de desaceleración del IPC de alimentos y de menores excesos de capacidad productiva. En los meses recientes el aumento en los precios internacionales de los fletes y de los bienes agrícolas, y las mayores exportaciones de carne y el ciclo ganadero han ejercido presiones al alza sobre el precio de los alimentos, principalmente de los procesados. A estas fuerzas persistentes se sumaron los bloqueos de las vías nacionales y los problemas de orden público en varias ciudades registrados en mayo y parte de junio, los cuales se reflejaron en una fuerte restricción en la oferta y en un aumento anual no esperado del IPC de alimentos (8,52 %). El grupo de regulados (5,93 %) también se aceleró, debido a la baja base de comparación en los precios de la gasolina y a la disolución de parte de los alivios a las tarifas de servicios públicos otorgados en 2020. Como se proyectaba, la inflación SAR repuntó al 1,87 %, debido a la reactivación de los impuestos indirectos de algunos bienes y servicios eliminados un año atrás, y por las presiones al alza que ejercieron los alimentos sobre las comidas fuera del hogar (CFH), entre otros. En lo que resta del año se espera que el aumento en los alimentos perecederos se revierta, siempre y cuando no se registren nuevos bloqueos duraderos a las vías nacionales. El mayor nivel de precios de los alimentos procesados persistiría y contribuiría a mantener la inflación por encima de la meta a finales de año. La inflación SAR continuaría con una tendencia creciente, en la medida en que los excesos de capacidad productiva se sigan cerrando y registraría un aumento transitorio en marzo de 2022, debido principalmente al restablecimiento del impuesto al consumo en las CFH. Con todo esto, para finales de 2021 y 2022 se estima una inflación total del 4,1 % y 3,1 %, y una inflación básica del 2,6 % y 3,2 %, respectivamente. El comportamiento conjunto de los precios del IPC SAR, junto con continuas sorpresas al alza en la actividad económica, son interpretados por el equipo técnico como señales de amplios excesos de capacidad productiva de la economía. Estos persistirían en los siguientes dos años, al final de los cuales la brecha del producto se cerraría. El mayor crecimiento económico sugiere una brecha del producto menos negativa que la estimada hace un trimestre. Sin embargo, el comportamiento de la inflación básica, especialmente en servicios, indica que el PIB potencial se ha recuperado de forma sorpresiva y que los excesos de capacidad siguen siendo amplios, con una demanda agregada afectada de forma persistente. Esta interpretación encuentra soporte en el mercado laboral, en donde persiste un desempleo alto y la recuperación de los empleos perdidos se estancó. Adicionalmente, los aumentos en la inflación en buena medida están explicados por choques de oferta y de costos y por la disolución de algunos alivios de precios otorgados un año atrás. Los pronósticos de crecimiento y de inflación descritos son coherentes con una brecha del producto que se cierra más rápido y es menos negativa en todo el horizonte de pronóstico con respecto al informe de abril. No obstante, la incertidumbre sobre los excesos de capacidad es muy alta y es un riesgo sobre el pronóstico. Las perspectivas de las cuentas fiscales de Colombia se deterioraron, Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings (S&P) y Fitch Ratings (Fitch) redujeron su calificación crediticia, los bloqueos y problemas de orden público afectaron el producto y el país enfrentó una nueva ola de contagios de Covid-19 más acentuada y prolongada que las pasadas. Todo lo anterior se ha reflejado en un aumento de las primas de riesgo y en una depreciación del peso frente al dólar. Esto ha ocurrido en un entorno favorable de ingresos externos. Los precios internacionales del petróleo, del café y de otros bienes básicos que exporta el país aumentaron y han contribuido a la recuperación de los términos de intercambio y del ingreso nacional, y han mitigado las presiones al alza sobre las primas de riesgo y la tasa de cambio. En el presente informe se incrementó el precio esperado del petróleo para 2021 a USD 68 por barril (antes USD 61 bl) y para 2022 a USD 66 bl (antes USD 60 bl). Esta mayor senda presenta una convergencia hacia precios menores que los observados recientemente, como resultado de una mayor oferta mundial esperada de petróleo, la cual más que compensaría el incremento en la demanda de este bien básico. Por ende, se supone que el aumento reciente de los precios tiene un carácter transitorio. En el escenario macroeconómico actual se espera que las condiciones financieras internacionales sean algo menos favorables, a pesar de la mejora en los ingresos externos por cuenta de una mayor demanda y unos precios del petróleo y de otros productos de exportación más altos. Frente al informe de abril el crecimiento de la demanda externa fue mejor que el esperado, y las proyecciones para 2021 y 2022 aumentaron del 5,2 % al 6,0 % y del 3,4 % al 3,5 %, respectivamente. En lo corrido del año las cifras de actividad económica muestran una demanda externa más dinámica de la esperada. En los Estados Unidos y China la recuperación del producto ha sido más rápida que la registrada en los países de la región. En estos últimos la reactivación económica ha estado limitada por los rebrotes del Covid-19, las limitaciones en la oferta de vacunas y el poco espacio fiscal para enfrentar la pandemia, entre otros factores. La buena dinámica en el comercio externo de bienes se ha dado en un entorno de deterioro en las cadenas de valor y de un aumento importante en los precios de las materias primas y en el costo de los fletes. En los Estados Unidos la inflación sorprendió al alza y su valor observado y esperado se mantiene por encima de la meta, al tiempo que se incrementó la proyección de crecimiento económico. Con esto, el inicio de la normalización de la política monetaria en ese país se daría antes de lo proyectado. En este informe se estima que el primer incremento en la tasa de interés de la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos se dé a finales de 2022 (antes del primer trimestre de 2023). Para Colombia se supone una mayor prima de riesgo frente al informe de abril y se sigue esperando que presente una tendencia creciente, dada la acumulación de deuda pública y externa del país. Todo esto contribuiría a un incremento en el costo del financiamiento externo en el horizonte de pronóstico. La postura expansiva de la política monetaria sigue soportando unas condiciones financieras internas favorables. En el segundo trimestre la tasa de interés interbancaria y el índice bancario de referencia (IBR) se han mantenido acordes con la tasa de interés de política. Las tasas de interés promedio de captación y crédito continuaron históricamente bajas, a pesar de algunos incrementos observados a finales de junio. La cartera en moneda nacional detuvo su desaceleración anual y, entre marzo y junio, el crédito a los hogares se aceleró, principalmente para compra de vivienda. La recuperación de la cartera comercial y de los desembolsos a ese sector fue importante, y se alcanzó de nuevo el elevado saldo observado un año atrás, cuando las empresas requirieron niveles significativos de liquidez para enfrentar los efectos económicos de la pandemia. El riesgo de crédito aumentó, las provisiones se mantienes altas y algunos bancos han retirado de su balance una parte de su cartera vencida. No obstante, las utilidades del sistema financiero se han recuperado y sus niveles de liquidez y solvencia se mantienen por encima del mínimo regulatorio. A partir de este informe se implementará una nueva metodología para cuantificar y comunicar la incertidumbre que rodea los pronósticos del escenario macroeconómico central, en un entorno de política monetaria activa. Esta metodología se conoce como densidades predictivas (DP) y se explica en detalle en el Recuadro 1. Partiendo del balance de riesgos que contiene los principales factores que, de acuerdo con el juicio del equipo técnico, podrían afectar a la economía en el horizonte de pronóstico, la metodología DP produce distribuciones de probabilidad sobre el pronóstico de las principales variables (v. g.: crecimiento, inflación). Estas distribuciones reflejan el resultado de los posibles choques (a variables externas, precios y actividad económica) que podría recibir la economía y su transmisión, considerando la estructura económica y la respuesta de política monetaria en el futuro. En este sentido, permiten cuantificar la incertidumbre alrededor del pronóstico y su sesgo. El ejercicio DP muestra un sesgo a la baja en el crecimiento económico y en la brecha del producto, y al alza en la inflación. El balance de riesgos indica que las disyuntivas para la política monetaria serán potencialmente más complejas que lo contemplado en el pasado. Por el lado de las condiciones de financiamiento externo, se considera que el mayor riesgo es que se tornen un poco menos favorables, en un escenario en el cual la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos incremente con mayor prontitud su tasa de interés. Esto último, ante un crecimiento económico y del empleo mayor que el esperado en los Estados Unidos que genere presiones significativas sobre la inflación de ese país. A esto se suma la incertidumbre sobre el panorama fiscal en Colombia y sus efectos sobre la prima de riesgo y el costo del financiamiento externo. En el caso del crecimiento, la mayoría de los riesgos son a la baja, destacándose los efectos de la incertidumbre política y fiscal sobre las decisiones de consumo e inversión, la aparición de nuevas olas de contagio de la pandemia del Covid-19 y sus impactos sobre la actividad económica. En el caso de la inflación, se incorporó el riesgo de una mayor persistencia de los choques asociados con la disrupción de las cadenas de valor, mayores precios internacionales de las materias primas y de los alimentos, y una recuperación más lenta que la esperada de la cadena agrícola nacional afectada por los pasados bloqueos a las vías. Estos riesgos presionarían al alza principalmente los precios de los alimentos y de los bienes. Como principal riesgo a la baja se incluyó un alza de los arriendos menor que el esperado en el escenario central, explicada por una demanda débil y por una mayor oferta en 2022 dadas las altas ventas de vivienda observadas en el presente año. Con todo, el crecimiento económico presenta un sesgo a la baja y, con el 90 % de confianza, se encontraría entre un 6,1 % y 9,1 % para 2021 y entre el 0,5 % y 4,1 % para 2022. La brecha del producto tendría un sesgo a la baja, principalmente en 2022. El sesgo de la inflación es al alza, y se encontraría entre el 3,7 % y 4,9 % en 2021, y el 2,2 % y 4,7 % en 2022, con un 90 % de probabilidad. 1.2 Decisión de política monetaria En las reuniones de junio y julio la JDBR decidió mantener la tasa de política monetaria inalterada en 1,75 %.