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Mishra, Anu, Robyn L. McClelland, Lurdes Y. T. Inoue, and Kathleen F. Kerr. "Recalibration Methods for Improved Clinical Utility of Risk Scores." Medical Decision Making 42, no. 4 (October 4, 2021): 500–512. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0272989x211044697.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Background An established risk model may demonstrate miscalibration, meaning predicted risks do not accurately capture event rates. In some instances, investigators can identify and address the cause of miscalibration. In other circumstances, it may be appropriate to recalibrate the risk model. Existing recalibration methods do not account for settings in which the risk score will be used for risk-based clinical decision making. Methods We propose 2 new methods for risk model recalibration when the intended purpose of the risk model is to prescribe an intervention to high-risk individuals. Our measure of risk model clinical utility is standardized net benefit. The first method is a weighted strategy that prioritizes good calibration at or around the critical risk threshold. The second method uses constrained optimization to produce a recalibrated risk model with maximum possible net benefit, thereby prioritizing good calibration around the critical risk threshold. We also propose a graphical tool for assessing the potential for recalibration to improve the net benefit of a risk model. We illustrate these methods by recalibrating the American College of Cardiology (ACC)–American Heart Association (AHA) atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk score within the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) cohort. Results New methods are implemented in the R package ClinicalUtilityRecal. Recalibrating the ACC-AHA-ASCVD risk score for a MESA subcohort results in higher estimated net benefit using the proposed methods compared with existing methods, with improved calibration in the most clinically impactful regions of risk. Conclusion The proposed methods target good calibration for critical risks and can improve the net benefit of a risk model. We recommend constrained optimization when the risk model net benefit is paramount. The weighted approach can be considered when good calibration over an interval of risks is important.
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J. A. Thomasson. "Recalibration Interval for Color/Trash Meters in Cotton Gins." Applied Engineering in Agriculture 8, no. 2 (1992): 147–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.13031/2013.26045.
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De Grande, Linde A. C., Katleen Van Uytfanghe, Dries Reynders, Barnali Das, James D. Faix, Finlay MacKenzie, Brigitte Decallonne, et al. "Standardization of Free Thyroxine Measurements Allows the Adoption of a More Uniform Reference Interval." Clinical Chemistry 63, no. 10 (October 1, 2017): 1642–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1373/clinchem.2017.274407.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract BACKGROUND The IFCC Committee for Standardization of Thyroid Function Tests intended to standardize free thyroxine (FT4) immunoassays. We developed a Système International d'Unités traceable conventional reference measurement procedure (RMP) based on equilibrium dialysis and mass spectrometry. We describe here the latest studies intended to recalibrate against the RMP and supply a proof of concept, which should allow continued standardization efforts. METHODS We used the RMP to target the standardization and reference interval (RI) panels, which were also measured by 13 manufacturers. We validated the suitability of the recalibrated results to meet specifications for bias (3.3%) and total error (8.0%) determined from biological variation. However, because these specifications were stringent, we expanded them to 10% and 13%, respectively. The results for the RI panel were reported as if the assays were recalibrated. We estimated all but 1 RI using parametric statistical procedures and hypothesized that the RI determined by the RMP was suitable for use by the recalibrated assays. RESULTS Twelve of 13 recalibrated assays had a bias, meeting the 10% specification with 95% confidence; for 7 assays, this applied even for the 3.3% specification. Only 1 assay met the 13% total error specification. Recalibration reduced the CV of the assay means for the standardization panel from 13% to 5%. The proof-of-concept study confirmed our hypothesis regarding the RI but within constraints. CONCLUSIONS Recalibration to the RMP significantly reduced the FT4 immunoassays' bias, so that the RI determined by the RMP was suitable for common use within a margin of 12.5%.
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Cavitte, M. G. P., D. D. Blankenship, D. A. Young, M. J. Siegert, and E. Le Meur. "Radar stratigraphy connecting Lake Vostok and Dome C, East Antarctica, constrains the EPICA/DMC ice core time scale." Cryosphere Discussions 7, no. 1 (January 22, 2013): 321–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tcd-7-321-2013.
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Abstract. New airborne radar sounding surveys at 60 MHz are used to trace internal layering between the Vostok and EPICA Dome C ice core sites. Eleven layers, spanning two glacial cycles from the last glacial maximum back to the MIS 7c interglacial, are used to correlate the two ice core chronologies. Independent of palaeoclimate signals, radar sounding enables correlation of the timescales, with a radar depth uncertainty equivalent to hundreds of years, which is small relative to the ice core dating uncertainties of thousands of years. Along the radar transects, horizons belonging to the last glacial cycle are impacted by aeolian stratigraphic reworking that increases radar technique uncertainty for this interval. However, older layers are used to propagate the higher resolution Vostok ages to the lower resolution Dome C ice core using the Suwa and Bender (2008) Vostok O2 / N2 chronology to give a recalibration of the Parrenin et al. (2007) EPICA EDC3 timescale between 1597 m and 2216 m depth (126 ka to 247 ka age interval).
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Thienpont, Linda M., Katleen Van Uytfanghe, Linde A. C. De Grande, Dries Reynders, Barnali Das, James D. Faix, Finlay MacKenzie, et al. "Harmonization of Serum Thyroid-Stimulating Hormone Measurements Paves the Way for the Adoption of a More Uniform Reference Interval." Clinical Chemistry 63, no. 7 (July 1, 2017): 1248–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1373/clinchem.2016.269456.
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Abstract BACKGROUND The IFCC Committee for Standardization of Thyroid Function Tests developed a global harmonization approach for thyroid-stimulating hormone measurements. It is based on a multiassay method comparison study with clinical serum samples and target setting with a robust factor analysis method. Here we describe the Phase IV method comparison and reference interval (RI) studies conducted with the objective to recalibrate the participating assays and demonstrate the proof-of-concept. METHODS Fourteen manufacturers measured the harmonization and RI panel; 4 of them quantified the harmonization and first follow-up panel in parallel. All recalibrated their assays to the statistically inferred targets. For validation, we used desirable specifications from the biological variation for the bias and total error (TE). The RI measurements were done with the assays' current calibrators, but data were also reported after transformation to the new calibration status. We estimated the pre- and postrecalibration RIs with a nonparametric bootstrap procedure. RESULTS After recalibration, 14 of 15 assays met the bias specification with 95% confidence; 8 assays complied with the TE specification. The CV of the assay means for the harmonization panel was reduced from 9.5% to 4.2%. The RI study showed improved uniformity after recalibration: the ranges (i.e., maximum differences) exhibited by the assay-specific 2.5th, 50th, and 97.5th percentile estimates were reduced from 0.27, 0.89, and 2.13 mIU/L to 0.12, 0.29, and 0.77 mIU/L. CONCLUSIONS We showed that harmonization increased the agreement of results from the participating immunoassays, and may allow them to adopt a more uniform RI in the future.
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Syrovatsky, Oleg. "Interpretation and Gas Distribution Net Threat Attack Markov models." E3S Web of Conferences 221 (2020): 03008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202022103008.
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This paper will focus on mathematical models to reduce the possibility of gas distribution net threat attacks, in order to avoid environmental damage caused by the siphoning off gas. These models are based on Markov models and theory of graphs. The article also shows some forms of attacks on gas distribution net. Environmental damage includes thermal influence caused by gas inflammation, terrain disturbance, biochemical processes. Among siphoning off gas indicators are: Interference in gas meter; Documentation noncompliance; Gas distribution off-the-meter; Power counter range discrepancy; Gas meter failure; Expired recalibration interval; Gas siphoning; Other discrepancies.
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Lockwood, M., H. Nevanlinna, M. Vokhmyanin, D. Ponyavin, S. Sokolov, L. Barnard, M. J. Owens, R. G. Harrison, A. P. Rouillard, and C. J. Scott. "Reconstruction of geomagnetic activity and near-Earth interplanetary conditions over the past 167 yr – Part 3: Improved representation of solar cycle 11." Annales Geophysicae 32, no. 4 (April 11, 2014): 367–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/angeo-32-367-2014.
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Abstract. Svalgaard (2014) has recently pointed out that the calibration of the Helsinki magnetic observatory's H component variometer was probably in error in published data for the years 1866–1874.5 and that this makes the interdiurnal variation index based on daily means, IDV(1d), (Lockwood et al., 2013a), and the interplanetary magnetic field strength derived from it (Lockwood et al., 2013b), too low around the peak of solar cycle 11. We use data from the modern Nurmijarvi station, relatively close to the site of the original Helsinki Observatory, to confirm a 30% underestimation in this interval and hence our results are fully consistent with the correction derived by Svalgaard. We show that the best method for recalibration uses the Helsinki Ak (H) and aa indices and is accurate to ±10%. This makes it preferable to recalibration using either the sunspot number or the diurnal range of geomagnetic activity which we find to be accurate to ±20%. In the case of Helsinki data during cycle 11, the two recalibration methods produce very similar corrections which are here confirmed using newly digitised data from the nearby St Petersburg observatory and also using declination data from Helsinki. However, we show that the IDV index is, compared to later years, too similar to sunspot number before 1872, revealing independence of the two data series has been lost; either because the geomagnetic data used to compile IDV has been corrected using sunspot numbers, or vice versa, or both. We present corrected data sequences for both the IDV(1d) index and the reconstructed IMF (interplanetary magnetic field). We also analyse the relationship between the derived near-Earth IMF and the sunspot number and point out the relevance of the prior history of solar activity, in addition to the contemporaneous value, to estimating any "floor" value of the near-Earth interplanetary field.
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Babakos, Konstantinos, Dimitris Papamichail, Panagiotis Tziachris, Vassilios Pisinaras, Kleoniki Demertzi, and Vassilis Aschonitis. "Assessing the Robustness of Pan Evaporation Models for Estimating Reference Crop Evapotranspiration during Recalibration at Local Conditions." Hydrology 7, no. 3 (September 1, 2020): 62. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/hydrology7030062.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
A classic method for assessing the reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) is the pan evaporation (Epan) method that uses Epan measurements and pan coefficient (kp) models, which can be functions of relative humidity (RH), wind speed (u2), and temperature (T). The aim of this study is to present a methodology for evaluating the robustness of regression coefficients associated to climate parameters (RH, u2, and T) in pan method models during recalibration at local conditions. Two years of daily data from April to October (warm season) of meteorological parameters, Epan measurements from class A pan evaporimeter and ETo estimated by ASCE-standardized method for the climatic conditions of Thessaloniki (Greece, semi-arid environment), were used. The regression coefficients of six general nonlinear (NLR) regression Epan models were analyzed through recalibration using a technique called “random cross-validation nonlinear regression RCV-NLR” that produced 1000 random splits of the initial dataset into calibration and validation sets using a constant proportion (70% and 30%, respectively). The variance of the regression coefficients was analyzed based on the 95% interval of the highest posterior density distribution. NLR models that included coefficients with a 95% HPD interval that fluctuates in both positive and negative values were considered nonrobust. The machine-learning technique of random forests (RF) was also used to build a RF model that includes Epan, u2, RH, and T parameters. This model was used as a benchmark for evaluating the predictive accuracy of NLR models but, also, for assessing the relative importance of the predictor climate variables if they were all included in one NLR model. The findings of this study indicated that locally calibrated NLR functions that use only the Epan parameter presented better results, while the inclusion of additional climate parameters was redundant and led to underfitting.
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Siegert, Stefan, David B. Stephenson, Philip G. Sansom, Adam A. Scaife, Rosie Eade, and Alberto Arribas. "A Bayesian Framework for Verification and Recalibration of Ensemble Forecasts: How Uncertain is NAO Predictability?" Journal of Climate 29, no. 3 (January 29, 2016): 995–1012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0196.1.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract Predictability estimates of ensemble prediction systems are uncertain because of limited numbers of past forecasts and observations. To account for such uncertainty, this paper proposes a Bayesian inferential framework that provides a simple 6-parameter representation of ensemble forecasting systems and the corresponding observations. The framework is probabilistic and thus allows for quantifying uncertainty in predictability measures, such as correlation skill and signal-to-noise ratios. It also provides a natural way to produce recalibrated probabilistic predictions from uncalibrated ensembles forecasts. The framework is used to address important questions concerning the skill of winter hindcasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation for 1992–2011 issued by the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System, version 5 (GloSea5), climate prediction system. Although there is much uncertainty in the correlation between ensemble mean and observations, there is strong evidence of skill: the 95% credible interval of the correlation coefficient of [0.19, 0.68] does not overlap zero. There is also strong evidence that the forecasts are not exchangeable with the observations: with over 99% certainty, the signal-to-noise ratio of the forecasts is smaller than the signal-to-noise ratio of the observations, which suggests that raw forecasts should not be taken as representative scenarios of the observations. Forecast recalibration is thus required, which can be coherently addressed within the proposed framework.
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Josephy, Norman, Lucia Kimball, and Victoria Steblovskaya. "Optimal Hedging and Pricing of Equity-Linked Life Insurance Contracts in a Discrete-Time Incomplete Market." Journal of Probability and Statistics 2011 (2011): 1–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2011/850727.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
We present a method of optimal hedging and pricing of equity-linked life insurance products in an incomplete discrete-time financial market. A pure endowment life insurance contract with guarantee is used as an example. The financial market incompleteness is caused by the assumption that the underlying risky asset price ratios are distributed in a compact interval, generalizing the assumptions of multinomial incomplete market models. For a range of initial hedging capitals for the embedded financial option, we numerically solve an optimal hedging problem and determine a risk-return profile of each optimal non-self-financing hedging strategy. The fair price of the insurance contract is determined according to the insurer's risk-return preferences. Illustrative numerical results of testing our algorithm on hypothetical insurance contracts are documented. A discussion and a test of a hedging strategy recalibration technique for long-term contracts are presented.
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Chinkov, V. N. "Analysis of reliability of control check methods in the determination of the technical state of measuring instruments in the recalibration interval." Measurement Techniques 53, no. 10 (January 2011): 1190–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11018-011-9639-6.
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Zhang, Nixiao, Chuangshi Wang, Alessio Gasperetti, Yanyan Song, Hongxia Niu, Min Gu, Firat Duru, Liang Chen, Shu Zhang, and Wei Hua. "Validation of an Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy Risk-Prediction Model in a Chinese Cohort." Journal of Clinical Medicine 11, no. 7 (April 1, 2022): 1973. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm11071973.
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Background: The novel arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC)-associated ventricular arrhythmias (VAs) risk-prediction model endorsed by Cadrin-Tourigny et al. was recently developed to estimate visual VA risk and was identified to be more effective for predicting ventricular events than the International Task Force Consensus (ITFC) criteria, and the Heart Rhythm Society (HRS) criteria. Data regarding its application in Asians are lacking. Objectives: We aimed to perform an external validation of this algorithm in the Chinese ARVC population. Methods: The study enrolled 88 ARVC patients who received implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) from January 2005 to January 2020. The primary endpoint was appropriate ICD therapies. The novel prediction model was used to calculate a priori predicted VA risk that was compared with the observed rates. Results: During a median follow-up of 3.9 years, 57 (64.8%) patients received the ICD therapy. Patients with implanted ICDs for primary prevention had non-significantly lower rates of ICD therapy than secondary prevention (5-year event rate: 0.46 (0.13–0.66) and 0.80 (0.64–0.89); log-rank p = 0.098). The validation study revealed the C-statistic of 0.833 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.615–1.000), and the predicted and the observed patterns were similar in primary prevention patients (mean predicted–observed risk: −0.07 (95% CI −0.21, 0.09)). However, in secondary prevention patients, the C-statistic was 0.640 (95% CI 0.510–0.770) and the predicted risk was significantly underestimated (mean predicted–observed risk: −0.32 (95% CI −0.39, −0.24)). The recalibration analysis showed that the performance of the prediction model in secondary prevention patients was improved, with the mean predicted–observed risk of −0.04 (95% CI −0.10, 0.03). Conclusions: The novel risk-prediction model had a good fitness to predict arrhythmic risk in Asian ARVC patients for primary prevention, and for secondary prevention patients after recalibration of the baseline risk.
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Quarona, Davide, Atesh Koul, Caterina Ansuini, Luca Pascolini, Andrea Cavallo, and Cristina Becchio. "A kind of magic: Enhanced detection of pantomimed grasps in professional magicians." Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology 73, no. 7 (May 21, 2020): 1092–100. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1747021820918533.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Professional magicians regularly use pantomimed grasps (i.e., movements towards imagined objects) to deceive audiences. To do so, they learn to shape their hands similarly for real and pantomimed grasps. Here we tested whether this form of motor expertise provides them a significant benefit when processing pantomimed grasps. To this aim, in a one-interval discrimination design, we asked 17 professional magicians and 17 naïve controls to watch video clips of reach-to-grasp movements recorded from naïve participants and judge whether the observed movement was real or pantomimed. All video clips were edited to spatially occlude the grasped object (either present or imagined). Data were analysed within a drift diffusion model approach. Fitting different models showed that, whereas magicians and naïve performed similarly when observing real grasps, magicians had a specific advantage compared with naïve at discriminating pantomimed grasps. These findings suggest that motor expertise may be crucial for detecting relevant cues from hand movement during the discrimination of pantomimed grasps. Results are discussed in terms of motor recalibration.
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Thakar, Alok. "S223 – Effect of Myopia on the Caloric Test." Otolaryngology–Head and Neck Surgery 139, no. 2_suppl (August 2008): P150. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.otohns.2008.05.398.
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Objectives To assess the impact of corrected myopia on the caloric test. Correction of myopia with spectacles or contact lenses results in alteration of the size of the retinal image. Previous laboratory experiments have demonstrated that gross changes in the size of the retinal image can result in recalibration or suppression of the vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR). Methods Case-control study. 17 evaluable healthy volunteers with myopia corrected either by spectacles or contact lenses (case group) compared to 17 volunteers with no refractive error (control group). Complete Electro-Nystagmography inclusive of bithermal caloric testing undertaken for cases and controls. Assessment of hypoactive caloric responses based on normative laboratory values. Results 7 of 17 cases and 1 of 17 controls demonstrated hypoactive caloric responses. In the spectacle users group, 6 of 11 (55%) had hypoactive responses. Spectacle users were significantly more likely than emmetropic controls to have hypoactive caloric responses (p<0.01; relative risk 9.3 {95 % Confidence Interval 1.3 to 66.9}). Conclusions 1) A significant proportion of myopes using spectacles have suppression of the vestibulo-ocular reflex as demonstrated by the caloric test. This has implications for the interpretation of ENG results, and also as a cause of vestibular impairment. 2) Further studies in myopes are warranted for precise and direct evaluation of the VOR by rotation or impulse testing.
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Duke, G. J., M. Piercy, D. Digiantomasso, and J. V. Green. "Comparison of Intensive Care Outcome Prediction Models Based on Admission Scores With those Based on 24-Hour Data." Anaesthesia and Intensive Care 36, no. 6 (November 2008): 845–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0310057x0803600615.
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We compared the performance of six outcome prediction models - three based on 24-hour data and three based on admission-only data - in a metropolitan university-affiliated teaching hospital with a 10-bed intensive care unit. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation models, version II (APACHE II) and version III-J, and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score version II (SAPS II) are based on 24-hour data and were compared with the Mortality Prediction Model version II and the SAPS version III using international and Australian coefficients (SAPS IIIA). Data were collected prospectively according to the standard methodologies for each model. Calibration and discrimination for each model were assessed by the standardised mortality ratio, area under the receiver operating characteristic plot and Hosmer-Lemeshow contingency tables and chi-squared statistics (C10 and H10). Predetermined criteria were area under the receiver operating characteristic plot >0.8, standardised mortality ratio 95% confidence interval includes 1.0, and C10 and H10 P values >0.05. Between October 1, 2005 and December 31, 2007, 1843 consecutive admissions were screened and after the standard exclusions, 1741 were included in the analysis. The SAAPS II and SAPS IIIA models fulfilled and the APACHE II model failed all criteria. The other models satisfied the discrimination criterion but significantly over-predicted mortality risk and require recalibration. Outcome prediction models based on admission-only data compared favourably to those based on 24-hour data.
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Printz, Trine, Ellen Raben Pedersen, Peter Juhl, Troels Nielsen, Ågot Møller Grøntved, and Christian Godballe. "Reproducibility of Dual-Microphone Voice Range Profile Equipment." Journal of Speech, Language, and Hearing Research 60, no. 12 (December 20, 2017): 3369–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1044/2017_jslhr-s-16-0460.
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Purpose The aim of this study was to add further knowledge about the usefulness of the Voice Range Profile (VRP) assessment in clinical settings and research by analyzing VRP dual-microphone equipment precision, reliability, and room effect. Method Test–retest studies were conducted in an anechoic chamber and an office: (a) comparing sound pressure levels (SPLs) from a dual-microphone VRP device, the Voice Profiler, when given the same input repeatedly (test–retest reliability); (b) comparing SPLs from 3 devices when given the same input repeatedly (intervariation); and (c) assessing the room effect. Results (a) The mean standard deviation across 17 measurement points was 0.7 dB for 1 device. (b) One device was less precise than the other 2 devices. All devices presented high SPLs at low frequencies compared with the reference. (c) Mean SPLs were almost equal in the anechoic chamber and the office. Conclusions The high test–retest reliability of the dual-microphone VRP equipment, especially in general office surroundings, is a positive finding. Attention must be paid to specific factors such as using the same device when comparing the same voice before and after treatment, caution in headset placement, and manual recalibrations when automatic recalibration occurs. We suggest recalibrations verified with a reference source at regular intervals.
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Rodríguez Cabaleiro, Diego, Dietmar Stöckl, Jean M. Kaufman, Tom Fiers, and Linda M. Thienpont. "Feasibility of Standardization of Serum C-Peptide Immunoassays with Isotope-Dilution Liquid Chromatography–Tandem Mass Spectrometry." Clinical Chemistry 52, no. 6 (June 1, 2006): 1193–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1373/clinchem.2005.062505.
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Abstract Background: Serum C-peptide concentrations reflect pancreatic function in different clinical and diagnostic settings; however, the utility of C-peptide testing is limited by the lack of standardized commercial immunoassays. Standardization can best be done by split-sample comparison with a hierarchically higher reference measurement procedure with a set of native sera. For serum peptides, isotope-dilution liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry (ID-LC/MS) is recommended as a reference measurement procedure. Methods: We evaluated the analytical performance characteristics of an ID-LC/tandem MS procedure for measurement of serum C-peptide after a 2-step solid-phase extraction. To investigate the feasibility of this procedure for use in standardization, we also performed a method comparison with 3 representative commercial assays. Results: The ID-LC/tandem MS procedure showed maximum within-run, between-run, and total CVs on dedicated sera (C-peptide concentrations, 1.6 and 4.0 μg/L) of 2.1%, 2.5%, and 2.9%, respectively; an accuracy of 94.6%–104.1%; a minimum trueness of 98.1% (95% confidence interval, 96.2%–100.0%), and limits of quantification and detection of 0.15 and 0.03 μg/L, respectively. Deming linear regression analysis of the method-comparison data showed that the immunoassays correlated well with ID-MS and were specific, but lacked intercomparability and trueness. We propose that the deficiencies can be resolved by recalibration on the basis of the method comparison. Conclusions: The ID-LC/tandem MS procedure is suitable for specific and accurate measurement of basal and stimulated serum concentrations of proinsulin C-peptide fragment 33–63 and is suitable for use in standardization of C-peptide immunoassays.
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Wickstrøm, Kristin E., Valeria Vitelli, Ewan Carr, Aleksander R. Holten, Rebecca Bendayan, Andrew H. Reiner, Daniel Bean, et al. "Regional performance variation in external validation of four prediction models for severity of COVID-19 at hospital admission: An observational multi-centre cohort study." PLOS ONE 16, no. 8 (August 25, 2021): e0255748. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0255748.
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Background Prediction models should be externally validated to assess their performance before implementation. Several prediction models for coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) have been published. This observational cohort study aimed to validate published models of severity for hospitalized patients with COVID-19 using clinical and laboratory predictors. Methods Prediction models fitting relevant inclusion criteria were chosen for validation. The outcome was either mortality or a composite outcome of mortality and ICU admission (severe disease). 1295 patients admitted with symptoms of COVID-19 at Kings Cross Hospital (KCH) in London, United Kingdom, and 307 patients at Oslo University Hospital (OUH) in Oslo, Norway were included. The performance of the models was assessed in terms of discrimination and calibration. Results We identified two models for prediction of mortality (referred to as Xie and Zhang1) and two models for prediction of severe disease (Allenbach and Zhang2). The performance of the models was variable. For prediction of mortality Xie had good discrimination at OUH with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) 0.87 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.79–0.95] and acceptable discrimination at KCH, AUROC 0.79 [0.76–0.82]. In prediction of severe disease, Allenbach had acceptable discrimination (OUH AUROC 0.81 [0.74–0.88] and KCH AUROC 0.72 [0.68–0.75]). The Zhang models had moderate to poor discrimination. Initial calibration was poor for all models but improved with recalibration. Conclusions The performance of the four prediction models was variable. The Xie model had the best discrimination for mortality, while the Allenbach model had acceptable results for prediction of severe disease.
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Weigel, Andreas P., Daniel Baggenstos, Mark A. Liniger, Frédéric Vitart, and Christof Appenzeller. "Probabilistic Verification of Monthly Temperature Forecasts." Monthly Weather Review 136, no. 12 (December 1, 2008): 5162–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008mwr2551.1.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract Monthly forecasting bridges the gap between medium-range weather forecasting and seasonal predictions. While such forecasts in the prediction range of 1–4 weeks are vital to many applications in the context of weather and climate risk management, surprisingly little has been published on the actual monthly prediction skill of existing global circulation models. Since 2004, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has operationally run a dynamical monthly forecasting system (MOFC). It is the aim of this study to provide a systematic and fully probabilistic evaluation of MOFC prediction skill for weekly averaged forecasts of surface temperature in dependence of lead time, region, and season. This requires the careful setup of an appropriate verification context, given that the verification period is short and ensemble sizes small. This study considers the annual cycle of operational temperature forecasts issued in 2006, as well as the corresponding 12 yr of reforecasts (hindcasts). The debiased ranked probability skill score (RPSSD) is applied for verification. This probabilistic skill metric has the advantage of being insensitive to the intrinsic unreliability due to small ensemble sizes—an issue that is relevant in the present context since MOFC hindcasts only have five ensemble members. The formulation of the RPSSD is generalized here such that the small hindcast ensembles and the large operational forecast ensembles can be jointly considered in the verification. A bootstrap method is applied to estimate confidence intervals. The results show that (i) MOFC forecasts are generally not worse than climatology and do outperform persistence, (ii) MOFC forecasts are skillful beyond a lead time of 18 days over some ocean regions and to a small degree also over tropical South America and Africa, (iii) extratropical continental predictability essentially vanishes after 18 days of integration, and (iv) even when the average predictability is low there can nevertheless be climatic conditions under which the forecasts contain useful information. With the present model, a significant skill improvement beyond 18 days of integration can only be achieved by increasing the averaging interval. Recalibration methods are expected to be without effect since the forecasts are essentially reliable.
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Barcenas, Carlos H., Juhee Song, Rashmi K. Murthy, Akshara S. Raghavendra, Yisheng Li, Limin Hsu, Robert W. Carlson, Debu Tripathy, and Gabriel N. Hortobagyi. "Prognostic Model for De Novo and Recurrent Metastatic Breast Cancer." JCO Clinical Cancer Informatics, no. 5 (August 2021): 789–804. http://dx.doi.org/10.1200/cci.21.00020.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
PURPOSE Metastatic breast cancer (MBC) has a heterogeneous clinical course. We sought to develop a prognostic model for overall survival (OS) that incorporated contemporary tumor and clinical factors for estimating individual prognosis. METHODS We identified patients with MBC from our institution diagnosed between 1998 and 2017. We developed OS prognostic models by Cox regression using demographic, tumor, and treatment variables. We assessed model predictive accuracy and estimated annual OS probabilities. We evaluated model discrimination and prediction calibration using an external validation data set from the National Comprehensive Cancer Network. RESULTS We identified 10,655 patients. A model using age at diagnosis, race or ethnicity, hormone receptor and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 subtype, de novo versus recurrent MBC categorized by metastasis-free interval, Karnofsky performance status, organ involvement, frontline biotherapy, frontline hormone therapy, and the interaction between variables significantly improved predictive accuracy (C-index, 0.731; 95% CI, 0.724 to 0.739) compared with a model with only hormone receptor and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 status (C-index, 0.617; 95% CI, 0.609 to 0.626). The extended Cox regression model consisting of six independent models, for < 3, 3-14, 14-20, 20-33, 33-61, and ≥ 61 months, estimated up to 5 years of annual OS probabilities. The selected multifactor model had good discriminative ability but suboptimal calibration in the group of 2,334 National Comprehensive Cancer Network patients. A recalibration model that replaced the baseline survival function with the average of those from the training and validation data improved predictions across both data sets. CONCLUSION We have generated and validated a robust prognostic OS model for MBC. This model can be used in clinical decision making and stratification in clinical trials.
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Sammut, Stephen, Ryan G. L. Koh, and José Zariffa. "Compensation Strategies for Bioelectric Signal Changes in Chronic Selective Nerve Cuff Recordings: A Simulation Study." Sensors 21, no. 2 (January 12, 2021): 506. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s21020506.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Peripheral nerve interfaces (PNIs) allow us to extract motor, sensory, and autonomic information from the nervous system and use it as control signals in neuroprosthetic and neuromodulation applications. Recent efforts have aimed to improve the recording selectivity of PNIs, including by using spatiotemporal patterns from multi-contact nerve cuff electrodes as input to a convolutional neural network (CNN). Before such a methodology can be translated to humans, its performance in chronic implantation scenarios must be evaluated. In this simulation study, approaches were evaluated for maintaining selective recording performance in the presence of two chronic implantation challenges: the growth of encapsulation tissue and rotation of the nerve cuff electrode. Performance over time was examined in three conditions: training the CNN at baseline only, supervised re-training with explicitly labeled data at periodic intervals, and a semi-supervised self-learning approach. This study demonstrated that a selective recording algorithm trained at baseline will likely fail over time due to changes in signal characteristics resulting from the chronic challenges. Results further showed that periodically recalibrating the selective recording algorithm could maintain its performance over time, and that a self-learning approach has the potential to reduce the frequency of recalibration.
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Procyk, Roman, Shaun Lovejoy, and Raphael Hébert. "The fractional energy balance equation for climate projections through 2100." Earth System Dynamics 13, no. 1 (January 19, 2022): 81–107. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-81-2022.
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Abstract. We produce climate projections through the 21st century using the fractional energy balance equation (FEBE): a generalization of the standard energy balance equation (EBE). The FEBE can be derived from Budyko–Sellers models or phenomenologically through the application of the scaling symmetry to energy storage processes, easily implemented by changing the integer order of the storage (derivative) term in the EBE to a fractional value. The FEBE is defined by three parameters: a fundamental shape parameter, a timescale and an amplitude, corresponding to, respectively, the scaling exponent h, the relaxation time τ and the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Two additional parameters were needed for the forcing: an aerosol recalibration factor α to account for the large aerosol uncertainty and a volcanic intermittency correction exponent ν. A Bayesian framework based on historical temperatures and natural and anthropogenic forcing series was used for parameter estimation. Significantly, the error model was not ad hoc but rather predicted by the model itself: the internal variability response to white noise internal forcing. The 90 % credible interval (CI) of the exponent and relaxation time were h=[0.33, 0.44] (median = 0.38) and τ=[2.4, 7.0] (median = 4.7) years compared to the usual EBE h=1, and literature values of τ typically in the range 2–8 years. Aerosol forcings were too strong, requiring a decrease by an average factor α=[0.2, 1.0] (median = 0.6); the volcanic intermittency correction exponent was ν=[0.15, 0.41] (median = 0.28) compared to standard values α=ν=1. The overpowered aerosols support a revision of the global modern (2005) aerosol forcing 90 % CI to a narrower range [−1.0, −0.2] W m−2. The key parameter ECS in comparison to IPCC AR5 (and to the CMIP6 MME), the 90 % CI range is reduced from [1.5, 4.5] K ([2.0, 5.5] K) to [1.6, 2.4] K ([1.5, 2.2] K), with median value lowered from 3.0 K (3.7 K) to 2.0 K (1.8 K). Similarly we found for the transient climate response (TCR), the 90 % CI range shrinks from [1.0, 2.5] K ([1.2, 2.8] K) to [1.2, 1.8] K ([1.1, 1.6] K) and the median estimate decreases from 1.8 K (2.0 K) to 1.5 K (1.4 K). As often seen in other observational-based studies, the FEBE values for climate sensitivities are therefore somewhat lower but still consistent with those in IPCC AR5 and the CMIP6 MME. Using these parameters, we made projections to 2100 using both the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, and compared them to the corresponding CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model ensembles (MMEs). The FEBE historical reconstructions (1880–2020) closely follow observations, notably during the 1998–2014 slowdown (“hiatus”). We also reproduce the internal variability with the FEBE and statistically validate this against centennial-scale temperature observations. Overall, the FEBE projections were 10 %–15 % lower but due to their smaller uncertainties, their 90 % CIs lie completely within the GCM 90 % CIs. This agreement means that the FEBE validates the MME, and vice versa.
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Shantier, Mohamed, Yanhong Li, Monika Ashwin, Olsegun Famure, and Sunita K. Singh. "Use of the Living Kidney Donor Profile Index in the Canadian Kidney Transplant Recipient Population: A Validation Study." Canadian Journal of Kidney Health and Disease 7 (January 2020): 205435812090697. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2054358120906976.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Background: The Living Kidney Donor Profile Index (LKDPI) was derived in a cohort of kidney transplant recipients (KTR) from the United States to predict the risk of total graft failure. There are important differences in patient demographics, listing practices, access to transplantation, delivery of care, and posttransplant mortality in Canada as compared with the United States, and the generalizability of the LKDPI in the Canadian context is unknown. Objective: The purpose of this study was to externally validate the LKDPI in a large contemporary cohort of Canadian KTR. Design: Retrospective cohort validation study. Setting: Toronto General Hospital, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada Patients: A total of 645 adult (≥18 years old) living donor KTR between January 1, 2006 and December 31, 2016 with follow-up until December 31, 2017 were included in the study. Measurements: The predictive performance of the LKDPI was evaluated. The outcome of interest was total graft failure, defined as the need for chronic dialysis, retransplantation, or death with graft function. Methods: The Cox proportional hazards model was used to examine the relation between the LKDPI and total graft failure. The Cox proportional hazards model was also used for external validation and performance assessment of the model. Discrimination and calibration were used to assess model performance. Discrimination was assessed using Harrell’s C statistic and calibration was assessed graphically, comparing observed versus predicted probabilities of total graft failure. Results: A total of 645 living donor KTR were included in the study. The median LKDPI score was 13 (interquartile range [IQR] = 1.1, 29.9). Higher LKDPI scores were associated with an increased risk of total graft failure (hazard ratio = 1.01; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.0-1.02; P = .02). Discrimination was poor (C statistic = 0.55; 95% CI = 0.48-0.61). Calibration was as good at 1-year posttransplant but suboptimal at 3- and 5-years posttransplant. Limitations: Limitations include a relatively small sample size, predicted probabilities for assessment of calibration only available for scores of 0 to 100, and some missing data handled by imputation. Conclusions: In this external validation study, the predictive ability of the LKDPI was modest in a cohort of Canadian KTR. Validation of prediction models is an important step to assess performance in external populations. Potential recalibration of the LKDPI may be useful prior to clinical use in external cohorts.
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Ho, Hao Tam, Hao Tam Ho, Emily Orchard-Mills, Hao Tam Ho, Emily Orchard-Mills, and David Alais. "Visuotactile Temporal Recalibration Transfers Across Different Locations." Multisensory Research 28, no. 3-4 (2015): 351–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/22134808-00002498.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Following prolonged exposure to audiovisual asynchrony, an observer’s point of subjective simultaneity (PSS) shifts in the direction of the leading modality. It has been debated whether other sensory pairings, such as vision and touch, lead to a similar temporal recalibration, and if so, whether the internal timing mechanism underlying lag visuotactile adaptation is centralised or distributed. To address these questions, we adapted observers to vision- and tactile-leading visuotactile asynchrony on either their left or right hand side in different blocks. In one test condition, participants performed a simultaneity judgment on the adapted side (unilateral) and in another they performed a simultaneity judgment on the non-adapted side (contralateral). In a third condition, participants adapted concurrently to equal and opposite asynchronies on each side and were tested randomly on either hand (bilateral opposed). Results from the first two conditions show that observers recalibrate to visuotactile asynchronies, and that the recalibration transfers to the non-adapted side. These findings suggest a centralised recalibration mechanism not linked to the adapted side and predict no recalibration for the bilateral opposed condition, assuming the adapted effects were equal on each side. This was confirmed in the group of participants that adapted to vision- and tactile-leading asynchrony on the right and left hand side, respectively. However, the other group (vision-leading on the left and tactile-leading on the right) did show a recalibration effect, suggesting a distributed mechanism. We discuss these findings in terms of a hybrid model that assumes the co-existence of a centralised and distributed timing mechanism.
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Tancev, Georgi. "Relevance of Drift Components and Unit-to-Unit Variability in the Predictive Maintenance of Low-Cost Electrochemical Sensor Systems in Air Quality Monitoring." Sensors 21, no. 9 (May 10, 2021): 3298. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s21093298.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
As key components of low-cost sensor systems in air quality monitoring, electrochemical gas sensors have recently received a lot of interest but suffer from unit-to-unit variability and different drift components such as aging and concept drift, depending on the calibration approach. Magnitudes of drift can vary across sensors of the same type, and uniform recalibration intervals might lead to insufficient performance for some sensors. This publication evaluates the opportunity to perform predictive maintenance solely by the use of calibration data, thereby detecting the optimal moment for recalibration and improving recalibration intervals and measurement results. Specifically, the idea is to define confidence regions around the calibration data and to monitor the relative position of incoming sensor signals during operation. The emphasis lies on four algorithms from unsupervised anomaly detection—namely, robust covariance, local outlier factor, one-class support vector machine, and isolation forest. Moreover, the behavior of unit-to-unit variability and various drift components on the performance of the algorithms is discussed by analyzing published field experiments and by performing Monte Carlo simulations based on sensing and aging models. Although unsupervised anomaly detection on calibration data can disclose the reliability of measurement results, simulation results suggest that this does not translate to every sensor system due to unfavorable arrangements of baseline drifts paired with sensitivity drift.
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Vandevoorde, Koenraad, and Jean-Jacques Orban de Xivry. "Internal model recalibration does not deteriorate with age while motor adaptation does." Neurobiology of Aging 80 (August 2019): 138–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.neurobiolaging.2019.03.020.
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Wilke, Carlo, Matthis Synofzik, and Axel Lindner. "Sensorimotor Recalibration Depends on Attribution of Sensory Prediction Errors to Internal Causes." PLoS ONE 8, no. 1 (January 24, 2013): e54925. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0054925.
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Boyle, Martin, Margherita Murgo, and Maureen O’Brien. "Assessment of drift of pulse contour cardiac output over varying recalibration intervals." Intensive Care Medicine 33, no. 11 (July 3, 2007): 2032–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00134-007-0761-5.
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Marissen, Rob, and Magnus Palmblad. "mzRecal: universal MS1 recalibration in mzML using identified peptides in mzIdentML as internal calibrants." Bioinformatics 37, no. 17 (February 4, 2021): 2768–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/bioinformatics/btab056.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract Summary In mass spectrometry-based proteomics, accurate peptide masses improve identifications, alignment and quantitation. Getting the most out of any instrument therefore requires proper calibration. Here, we present a new stand-alone software, mzRecal, for universal automatic recalibration of data from all common mass analyzers using standard open formats and based on physical principles. Availability and implementation mzRecal is implemented in Go and freely available on https://github.com/524D/mzRecal. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
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Gulyaev, Petr S., Alexander N. Teplykh та Andrey Y. Dyachenko. "Исследование градуировочной характеристики турбинных преобразователей расхода жидкости типа MVTM". SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGIES OIL AND OIL PRODUCTS PIPELINE TRANSPORTATION, № 5 (9 грудня 2021): 576–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.28999/2541-9595-2021-11-5-576-581.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Most of the failures of turbine flow converters (TFC) used in the Russian system of main oil pipelines and oil product pipelines are caused by abrupt changes in the viscosity of the transported medium. In studies related to determination of the influence of the rheological properties of the pumped oil on the metrological characteristics of TFC that have a calibration curve in the form of a piecewise approximation without taking into account the correlation of TFC rotor speed with the viscosity of the pumped liquid in the flow rate subrange, the instability of the metrological characteristics in the operating range is observed. Taking into account the tendency to increase the volume of production and pumping of high-viscosity oils it can be assumed that the irregularity of the metrological characteristics of TFC, expressed in the change in the conversion factor will remain, which will negatively affect the reliability of accounting operations using oil quality control system (OQCS). Accordingly there is a need to maintain the error of TFC within the set limits in the subranges and throughout the entire range of flow rates. According to the results of the study performed by the authors it was confirmed that for the TFC of MVTM type the use of the calibration curve in the form of a piecewise-parabolic approximation with the dependence of the conversion factor on the ratio of TFC pulse frequency to the oil viscosity makes it possible to minimize the effect of changes in the parameters of the pumped medium on the measurement accuracy and as a consequence to stabilize the metrological characteristics of TFC in the recalibration interval, eliminate the costs of performing out-of-turn verifications, increase the accuracy and metrological reliability of the OQCS. Большинство отказов турбинных преобразователей расхода (ТПР), используемых в российской системе магистральных нефтепроводов и нефтепродуктопроводов, обусловлено резкими изменениями вязкости транспортируемой среды. В исследованиях по определению влияния реологических свойств перекачиваемой нефти на метрологические характеристики ТПР, имеющих градуировочную характеристику в виде кусочно-линейной аппроксимации без учета корреляции частоты вращения ротора ТПР с вязкостью перекачиваемой жидкости в поддиапазоне расхода, отмечается нестабильность метрологических характеристик в рабочем диапазоне. Учитывая тенденцию увеличения объема добычи и перекачки высоковязких нефтей, можно предположить, что непостоянность метрологических характеристик ТПР, выражаемая в изменении коэффициента преобразования, сохранится, что негативно скажется на достоверности учетных операций с применением систем измерений количества и показателей качества нефти (СИКН). Соответственно, возникает потребность в поддержании погрешности ТПР в установленных пределах в поддиапазонах и во всем диапазоне расходов. По результатам проведенного авторами исследования подтверждено, что для ТПР типа MVTM использование градуировочной характеристики в виде кусочно-параболической аппроксимации с зависимостью коэффициента преобразования от отношения частоты импульсов ТПР к вязкости нефти позволяет минимизировать влияние изменений параметров перекачиваемой среды на точность измерений и, как следствие, стабилизировать метрологические характеристики ТПР в межповерочном интервале, исключить затраты на выполнение внеочередных поверок, повысить точность и метрологическую надежность СИКН.
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Kratzsch, Juergen, Nikola A. Baumann, Ferruccio Ceriotti, Zhong X. Lu, Matthias Schott, Antonius E. van Herwaarden, José Gilberto Henriques Vieira, Dusanka Kasapic, and Luca Giovanella. "Global FT4 immunoassay standardization: an expert opinion review." Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine (CCLM) 59, no. 6 (December 24, 2020): 1013–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/cclm-2020-1696.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract Objectives Results can vary between different free thyroxine (FT4) assays; global standardization would improve comparability of results between laboratories, allowing development of common clinical decision limits in evidence-based guidelines. Content We summarize the path to standardization of FT4 assays, and challenges associated with FT4 testing in special populations, including the need for collaborative efforts toward establishing population-specific reference intervals. The International Federation of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine Committee for Standardization of Thyroid Function Tests has undertaken FT4 immunoassay method comparison and recalibration studies and developed a reference measurement procedure that is currently being validated. Further studies are needed to establish common reference intervals/clinical decision limits. Standardization of FT4 assays will change test results substantially; therefore, a major education program will be required to ensure stakeholders are aware of the benefits of FT4 standardization, planned transition procedure, and potential clinical impact of the changes. Assay recalibration by manufacturers and approval process simplification by regulatory authorities will help minimize the clinical impact of standardization. Summary Significant progress has been made toward standardization of FT4 testing, but technical and logistical challenges remain. Outlook Collaborative efforts by manufacturers, laboratories, and clinicians are required to achieve successful global standardization of the FT4 assays.
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Berndt, Christian, Marion Werner, and Víctor Ramiro Fernández. "Postneoliberalism as institutional recalibration: Reading Polanyi through Argentina’s soy boom." Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 52, no. 1 (January 21, 2019): 216–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0308518x19825657.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
While postneoliberalism is often interpreted as a societal reaction against the deleterious effects of marketization in Latin America, this paper develops a finer-grained Polanyian institutional analysis to gain better analytical purchase on the ambivalent outcomes of postneoliberal reforms. Drawing on recent insights in economic geography, and in dialogue with the Latin American structuralist tradition, we elaborate our framework through a case study of the Argentinian soy boom of the 2000s, identifying forms of market extension, redistribution, reciprocity and householding that facilitated this process. We argue for a multi-scalar approach that balances attention to national and extra-local dynamics shaping the combination of these forms, identified through the lens of the “fictitious commodities” of the soy boom: money (credit, currency and cross-border capital flows), land (in the agricultural heartland and frontier regions), labor (transformed and excluded in a “farming without farmers” model) and, we add, knowledge (biotech). Our analysis identifies internal tensions as well as overt resistance and “overflow” that ultimately led to the collapse of postneoliberal regulation of the soy complex, ushering in a wider, market-radical counter-movement. Refracting double-movement-type dynamics through the prism of heterodox institutional forms, we argue, allows for a better grasp of processes that underlie institutional recalibrations of progressive and regressive kinds.
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Mousavi, S. Jamshid, K. C. Abbaspour, B. Kamali, M. Amini, and H. Yang. "Uncertainty-based automatic calibration of HEC-HMS model using sequential uncertainty fitting approach." Journal of Hydroinformatics 14, no. 2 (May 10, 2011): 286–309. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2011.071.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This study presents the application of an uncertainty-based technique for automatic calibration of the well-known Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS) model. Sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI2) approach has been used in calibration of the HEC-HMS model built for Tamar basin located in north of Iran. The basin was divided into seven sub-basins and three routing reaches with 24 parameters to be estimated. From the four events, three were used for calibration and one for verification. Each event was initially calibrated separately. As there was no unique parameter set identified, all events were then calibrated jointly. Based on the scenarios of separately and jointly calibrated events, different candidate parameter sets were inputted to the model verification stage where recalibration of initial abstraction parameters commenced. Some of the candidate parameter sets with no physically meaningful parameter values were withdrawn after recalibration. Then new ranges of parameters were identified based on minimum and maximum values of the remaining parameter sets. The new parameter ranges were used in an uncertainty analysis using SUFI2 technique resulting in much narrower parameter intervals that can simulate both verification and calibration events satisfactorily in a probabilistic sense. Results show that the SUFI2 technique linked to HEC-HMS as a simulation–optimization model can provide a basis for performing uncertainty-based automatic calibration of event-based hydrologic models.
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Georgeson, A. R., Matthew J. Valente, and Oscar Gonzalez. "Evaluating Response Shift in Statistical Mediation Analysis." Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science 4, no. 2 (April 2021): 251524592110122. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/25152459211012271.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Researchers and prevention scientists often develop interventions to target intermediate variables (known as mediators) that are thought to be related to an outcome. When researchers target a mediating construct measured by self-report, the meaning of the self-report measure could change from pretest to posttest for the individuals who received the intervention—which is a phenomenon referred to as response shift. As a result, any observed changes on the mediator measure across groups or across time might reflect a combination of true change on the construct and response shift. Although previous studies have focused on identifying the source and type of response shift in measures after an intervention, there has been limited research on how using sum scores in the presence of response shift affects the estimation of mediated effects via statistical mediation analysis, which is critical for explaining how the intervention worked. In this article, we focus on recalibration response shift, which is a change in internal standards of measurement and affects how respondents interpret the response scale. We provide background on the theory of response shift and the methodology used to detect response shift (i.e., tests of measurement invariance). In addition, we used simulated data sets to provide an illustration of how recalibration in the mediator can bias estimates of the mediated effect and affect Type I error and power.
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Finkelstein, Joel A., Brian R. Quaranto, and Carolyn E. Schwartz. "Threats to the Internal Validity of Spinal Surgery Outcome Assessment: Recalibration Response Shift or Implicit Theories of Change?" Applied Research in Quality of Life 9, no. 2 (March 16, 2013): 215–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11482-013-9221-2.
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Machuca, Carolina, Mario V. Vettore, and Peter G. Robinson. "How peoples’ ratings of dental implant treatment change over time?" Quality of Life Research 29, no. 5 (January 6, 2020): 1323–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11136-019-02408-1.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract Objectives Dental implant treatment (DIT) improves peoples’ oral health-related quality of life (OHQoL). Assessment of longitudinal changes in OHRQoL may be undermined by response shift (RS). RS is the process by which quality of life changes, independent of health status as a result recalibration, reprioritization or reconceptualization. Thus, this study aimed to describe RS in the OHRQoL and perceived oral health of individuals receiving DIT and to compare the then-test, a self-anchored scale and the classification and regression trees (CRT) approaches for assessing RS. Methods OHRQoL was assessed in 100 patients receiving DIT using the OHIP-Edent (n = 100) and a self-anchored scale (n = 45) before placement of the final restoration and 3 to 6 months after treatment was completed. The OHIP-Edent was also used as a retrospective assessment at follow-up. CRT examined changes in the OHIP-Edent total score as a dependent variable with global changes in oral health and each OHIP-Edent subscale score as independent variables. Results OHRQoL and perceived oral health improved after treatment. The OHIP-Edent score decreased from 36.4 at baseline to 12.7 after treatment. On average, participants recalibrated their internal standard downwards (− 4.0 OHIP-Edent points). CRT detected downwards recalibration in 5% of participants and upwards in 15%. Reprioritization was observed in the social disability and psychological discomfort aspects of OHRQoL. Conclusions RS affects longitudinal assessments of OHRQoL in DIT, reducing the apparent magnitude of change. The then-test and CRT are valid and complementary methods to assess RS.
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Zhou, Xinhua, Qinghua Yang, Xiaojie Zhen, Yubin Li, Guanghua Hao, Hui Shen, Tian Gao, Yirong Sun, and Ning Zheng. "Recovery of the three-dimensional wind and sonic temperature data from a physically deformed sonic anemometer." Atmospheric Measurement Techniques 11, no. 11 (October 30, 2018): 5981–6002. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-5981-2018.
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Abstract. A sonic anemometer reports three-dimensional (3-D) wind and sonic temperature (Ts) by measuring the time of ultrasonic signals transmitting along each of its three sonic paths, whose geometry of lengths and angles in the anemometer coordinate system was precisely determined through production calibrations and the geometry data were embedded into the sonic anemometer operating system (OS) for internal computations. If this geometry is deformed, although correctly measuring the time, the sonic anemometer continues to use its embedded geometry data for internal computations, resulting in incorrect output of 3-D wind and Ts data. However, if the geometry is remeasured (i.e., recalibrated) and to update the OS, the sonic anemometer can resume outputting correct data. In some cases, where immediate recalibration is not possible, a deformed sonic anemometer can be used because the ultrasonic signal-transmitting time is still correctly measured and the correct time can be used to recover the data through post processing. For example, in 2015, a sonic anemometer was geometrically deformed during transportation to Antarctica. Immediate deployment was critical, so the deformed sonic anemometer was used until a replacement arrived in 2016. Equations and algorithms were developed and implemented into the post-processing software to recover wind data with and without transducer-shadow correction and Ts data with crosswind correction. Post-processing used two geometric datasets, production calibration and recalibration, to recover the wind and Ts data from May 2015 to January 2016. The recovery reduced the difference of 9.60 to 8.93 ∘C between measured and calculated Ts to 0.81 to −0.45 ∘C, which is within the expected range, due to normal measurement errors. The recovered data were further processed to derive fluxes. As data reacquisition is time-consuming and expensive, this data-recovery approach is a cost-effective and time-saving option for similar cases. The equation development can be a reference for related topics.
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Tan, Yanliang, and Detao Xiao. "The method for recalibration of thoron concentration reading of RAD7 and obtaining the thoron exhalation rate from soil surface." Nuclear Technology and Radiation Protection 28, no. 1 (2013): 92–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/ntrp1301092t.
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Thoron exhalation rate can be obtained through the combination of the ?accumulation chamber? technique and RAD7. Thoron?s rapid decay causes the intake path and the air flow rate to become important factors in calibration. In field conditions, since the flow rate of the internal pump in RAD7 will change as the voltage of the battery decreases, the big drying tube is more suitable for a long measurement than the small drying tube. We developed the method for recalibration of the thoron concentration reading of RAD7 based on the calibration factor for 222Rn, and obtained the thoron exhalation rate from soil surface near by the Radon Laboratory of the University of South China. This method can be applied to develop and improve instruments for measuring the radon exhalation rate.
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Padoan, Andrea, Aldo Clerico, Martina Zaninotto, Tommaso Trenti, Renato Tozzoli, Rosalia Aloe, Antonio Alfano, et al. "Percentile transformation and recalibration functions allow harmonization of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) immunoassay results." Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine (CCLM) 58, no. 10 (September 25, 2020): 1663–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/cclm-2019-1167.
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AbstractBackgroundThe comparability of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) results cannot be easily obtained using SI-traceable reference measurement procedures (RPMs) or reference materials, whilst harmonization is more feasible. The aim of this study was to identify and validate a new approach for the harmonization of TSH results.MethodsPercentile normalization was applied to 125,419 TSH results, obtained from seven laboratories using three immunoassays (Access 3rd IS Thyrotropin, Beckman Coulter Diagnostics; Architect System, Abbott Diagnostics and Elecsys, Roche Diagnostics). Recalibration equations (RCAL) were derived by robust regressions using bootstrapped distribution. Two datasets, the first of 119 EQAs, the second of 610, 638 and 639 results from Access, Architect and Elecsys TSH results, respectively, were used to validate RCAL. A dataset of 142,821 TSH values was used to derive reference intervals (RIs) after applying RCAL.ResultsAccess, Abbott and Elecsys TSH distributions were significantly different (p < 0.001). RCAL intercepts and slopes were −0.003 and 0.984 for Access, 0.032 and 1.041 for Architect, −0.031 and 1.003 for Elecsys, respectively. Validation using EQAs showed that before and after RCAL, the coefficients of variation (CVs) or among-assay results decreased from 10.72% to 8.16%. The second validation dataset was used to test RCALs. The median of between-assay differences ranged from −0.0053 to 0.1955 mIU/L of TSH. Elecsys recalibrated to Access (and vice-versa) showed non-significant difference. TSH RI after RCAL resulted in 0.37–5.11 mIU/L overall, 0.49–4.96 mIU/L for females and 0.40–4.92 mIU/L for males. A significant difference across age classes was identified.ConclusionsPercentile normalization and robust regression are valuable tools for deriving RCALs and harmonizing TSH values.
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van Kuijk, Sander, Denise Delahaije, Carmen Dirksen, Hubertina C. J. Scheepers, Marc Spaanderman, W. Ganzevoort, Hans Duvekot, et al. "PP087. Multicenter external validation and recalibration of a model for preconceptional prediction of recurrent early-onset preeclampsia." Pregnancy Hypertension: An International Journal of Women's Cardiovascular Health 3, no. 2 (April 2013): 99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.preghy.2013.04.112.
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Mijajlovic, Miroslav, Dusan Ciric, and Sonja Vidojkovic. "Effective temperature based algorithm for achieving constant quality resistance seam weld." Thermal Science, no. 00 (2020): 222. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/tsci200307222m.
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The resistance seam welding is a welding technique that is often used for the creation of the leak-tight welds. It is a technique where the weld is created as a set of overlapping weld nuggets between the cylindrical welding electrodes. The creation of the weld nuggets is depending on many external and internal parameters. Some of the external parameters are pressing force, welding electrodes, electrical current and time, while the internal parameters are electrical resistance, resistivity, and temperature. The main issue with the resistance seam welding is to properly set up internal and external parameters, create a weld nugget of a certain quality, reconfigure the parameters, relocate, and create another weld nugget of the same quality. The modern welding machines must have monitoring systems capable to make decisions and recalibration of the parameters. These systems are very complex and expensive, and as such, non-affordable for many small enterprises. This paper is presenting an effective, temperature-based algorithm for selecting the optimal welding parameters before the welding begins. The algorithm bases on the data from the experimental welding and numeric simulation of the welding process. The verification of the algorithm is done after testing the quality of the welds.
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Yanofsky, Corey M., Alexander W. Bell, Souad Lesimple, Frank Morales, TuKiet T. Lam, Greg T. Blakney, Alan G. Marshall, et al. "Multicomponent Internal Recalibration of an LC−FTICR-MS Analysis Employing a Partially Characterized Complex Peptide Mixture: Systematic and Random Errors." Analytical Chemistry 77, no. 22 (November 2005): 7246–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/ac050640q.
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Siddiqui, Mona, Scott Joy, David Elwell, and Gerard F. Anderson. "The National Commission on Physician Payment Reform: Recalibrating Fee-for-Service and Transitioning to Fixed Payment Models." Journal of General Internal Medicine 29, no. 5 (February 27, 2014): 700–702. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11606-014-2785-1.
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Zvaigzne, G. V., D. A. Brogan, and L. H. Bernstein. "Statistical analysis of the stability of the standard curve for some Syva EMIT assays." Clinical Chemistry 32, no. 3 (March 1, 1986): 437–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/clinchem/32.3.437.
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Abstract Derivation of standard curves for the EMIT therapeutic drug monitoring system involves several mathematical algorithms, all of which can be rewritten in the form of a linear equation y = mx + b. We examined the stability of the standard curve in terms of slope and y-intercept for three drug assays (procainamide, gentamicin, and carbamazepine) by generating calibration curves intermittently for periods as long as 90 days. Controls at three concentrations were assayed after each calibration to validate the standard curves. On the basis of 98% confidence intervals, the slopes of standard curves for procainamide, gentamicin, and carbamazepine were stable for 89, 80, and 57 days, respectively. Control values generated from standard-curve manipulations (adjustments to the y-intercept) indicated consistent accuracy and precision throughout the entire study, as compared with control values determined after each calibration. The increased utility of the standard curve and reagents suggests that full recalibration on a regular basis is not always necessary.
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Meid, Andreas Daniel, Ana Isabel Gonzalez-Gonzalez, Truc Sophia Dinh, Jeanet Blom, Marjan van den Akker, Petra Elders, Ulrich Thiem, et al. "Predicting hospital admissions from individual patient data (IPD): an applied example to explore key elements driving external validity." BMJ Open 11, no. 8 (August 2021): e045572. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-045572.
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ObjectiveTo explore factors that potentially impact external validation performance while developing and validating a prognostic model for hospital admissions (HAs) in complex older general practice patients.Study design and settingUsing individual participant data from four cluster-randomised trials conducted in the Netherlands and Germany, we used logistic regression to develop a prognostic model to predict all-cause HAs within a 6-month follow-up period. A stratified intercept was used to account for heterogeneity in baseline risk between the studies. The model was validated both internally and by using internal-external cross-validation (IECV).ResultsPrior HAs, physical components of the health-related quality of life comorbidity index, and medication-related variables were used in the final model. While achieving moderate discriminatory performance, internal bootstrap validation revealed a pronounced risk of overfitting. The results of the IECV, in which calibration was highly variable even after accounting for between-study heterogeneity, agreed with this finding. Heterogeneity was equally reflected in differing baseline risk, predictor effects and absolute risk predictions.ConclusionsPredictor effect heterogeneity and differing baseline risk can explain the limited external performance of HA prediction models. With such drivers known, model adjustments in external validation settings (eg, intercept recalibration, complete updating) can be applied more purposefully.Trial registration numberPROSPERO id: CRD42018088129.
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Vijayasingham, Lavanya. "Work right to right work: An automythology of chronic illness and work." Chronic Illness 14, no. 1 (April 25, 2017): 42–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1742395317699450.
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Objectives Chronic illness is known to disrupt and redirect the usual course of work trajectories. This article aims to portray the longitudinal course of negotiating work after multiple sclerosis. Methods Using therapy and personal journals to reconstruct memories and experience, an autoethnography is produced and narrated within Campbell’s “Hero’s Journey” automythology framework. Results The narrative highlights the intrasubjectivity of illness meaning—the changing internal meaning-making and external behavior and decision-making dynamics. The journey of being inhibited to “Work Right”, to “Looking for the Right” and ultimately, finding “Right Work” is charted; portrayed as a bittersweet maneuver to achieve work–illness equilibrium. Discussion This journey traverses a spectrum of negative coping—the exhibition of deviant work behaviors, disengagement and depression; to recalibration and renewal; culminating in living the “new normal”, and finding moral and meaningful work engagements. Life trajectories with chronic illness are often skewed and redirected; but longitudinal narratives of normalization and coping also highlight the pursuits to secure and maintain a life of meaning and value.
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Larive, Cynthia K., Dimuthu Jayawickrama, and Laszlo Orfi. "Quantitative Analysis of Peptides with NMR Spectroscopy." Applied Spectroscopy 51, no. 10 (October 1997): 1531–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1366/0003702971939055.
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The determination of peptide concentration with 1H nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy using an internal standard or an external standard in a sealed glass capillary was investigated for three tyrosine-containing tripeptides. Trimethylsilylpropionic acid (TSP) and maleic acid were tested as external standards for quantitation by proton NMR. Although comparable results were obtained for either standard, the performance of maleic acid was found to be superior because of its better long-term stability in the sealed capillary. Loss of TSP from solution occurred over time due to adsorption onto the walls of the capillary, necessitating frequent recalibration against the primary standard, potassium acid phthalate (KHP). The peptide contents of solid peptides determined with 1H NMR are compared with those obtained from ultraviolet (UV) absorbance measurements of the tyrosine chromophore. The versatility of NMR for the quantitative analysis of peptides that do not contain an appropriate UV chromophore make it well-suited for the determination of peptide concentration in aggregation studies or for the preparation of solutions for high-throughput screening of biological activity.
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Rogers, Catherine A. "The World Is Not Enough*: ethics in arbitration seen through the world of film." Arbitration International 37, no. 1 (January 16, 2021): 397–415. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/arbint/aiaa039.
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Abstract This article starts from the playful premise that if James Bond practiced law, it would be international arbitration. The article uses the 007 metaphor and the titles of James Bond films to examine the ethical challenges that confront various actors in international arbitration. The article argues that arbitration practitioners—as they tend to the needs of their clients, their organizations, their institutions, and their own professional goals—should look beyond their most immediate, short-term self-interest so their case does not become the billboard for some endemic problem or controversy in international arbitration. A modicum of foresight might have altered outcomes in some of arbitration's most disruptive cases and sensational cases—HEP v. Slovenia, Yukos, Einser, and RSM v. St. Lucia. The article concludes with a QUANTUM OF SOLACE—those professionals active in international arbitration have it within their power and have demonstrated a collective impulse to address problems through a determined self-reassessment and internal recalibration. In conclusion, it calls on international arbitration practitioners to make that collective impulse an express commitment, at TOMORROW NEVER DIES.
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De Pauw, D. J. W., and P. A. Vanrolleghem. "Designing and performing experiments for model calibration using an automated iterative procedure." Water Science and Technology 53, no. 1 (January 1, 2006): 117–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2006.014.
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Optimal experimental design for parameter estimation involves complex mathematical and practical steps in order to obtain a model with sufficiently accurate parameters. This paper proposes a methodology where user interaction is only required at the beginning of the experimental design procedure. All subsequent steps are carried out automatically, including: (1) finding the optimal experiment, (2) performing the experiments in practice, and (3) recalibrating the model. A software extension to an existing modelling and simulation package which performs this automatic procedure is also presented. Finally an illustration for the calibration of a one-step nitrification model using respirometric data is given. In this case, the application of the proposed procedure resulted, after three iterations, in considerably better confidence intervals on the parameter estimates, within the desired boundaries.
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Keene, David J., Michael M. Schlüssel, Jacqueline Thompson, Daryl A. Hagan, Mark A. Williams, Christopher Byrne, Steve Goodacre, et al. "Prognostic models for identifying risk of poor outcome in people with acute ankle sprains: the SPRAINED development and external validation study." Health Technology Assessment 22, no. 64 (November 2018): 1–112. http://dx.doi.org/10.3310/hta22640.
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BackgroundAnkle sprains are very common injuries. Although recovery can occur within weeks, around one-third of patients have longer-term problems.ObjectivesTo develop and externally validate a prognostic model for identifying people at increased risk of poor outcome after an acute ankle sprain.DesignDevelopment of a prognostic model in a clinical trial cohort data set and external validation in a prospective cohort study.SettingEmergency departments (EDs) in the UK.ParticipantsAdults with an acute ankle sprain (within 7 days of injury).Sample sizeThere were 584 clinical trial participants in the development data set and 682 recruited for the external validation study.PredictorsCandidate predictor variables were chosen based on availability in the clinical data set, clinical consensus, face validity, a systematic review of the literature, data quality and plausibility of predictiveness of the outcomes.Main outcome measuresModels were developed to predict two composite outcomes representing poor outcome. Outcome 1 was the presence of at least one of the following symptoms at 9 months after injury: persistent pain, functional difficulty or lack of confidence. Outcome 2 included the same symptoms as outcome 1, with the addition of recurrence of injury. Rates of poor outcome in the external data set were lower than in the development data set, 7% versus 20% for outcome 1 and 16% versus 24% for outcome 2.AnalysisMultiple imputation was used to handle missing data. Logistic regression models, together with multivariable fractional polynomials, were used to select variables and identify transformations of continuous predictors that best predicted the outcome based on a nominal alpha of 0.157, chosen to minimise overfitting. Predictive accuracy was evaluated by assessing model discrimination (c-statistic) and calibration (flexible calibration plot).Results(1) Performance of the prognostic models in development data set – the combinedc-statistic for the outcome 1 model across the 50 imputed data sets was 0.74 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70 to 0.79], with good model calibration across the imputed data sets. The combinedc-statistic for the outcome 2 model across the 50 imputed data sets was 0.70 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.74), with good model calibration across the imputed data sets. Updating these models, which used baseline data collected at the ED, with an additional variable at 4 weeks post injury (pain when bearing weight on the ankle) improved the discriminatory ability (c-statistic 0.77, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.82, for outcome 1 and 0.75, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.80, for outcome 2) and calibration of both models. (2) Performance of the models in the external data set – the combinedc-statistic for the outcome 1 model across the 50 imputed data sets was 0.73 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.79), with a calibration plot intercept of –0.91 (95% CI –0.98 to 0.44) and slope of 1.13 (95% CI 0.76 to 1.50). The combinedc-statistic for the outcome 2 model across the 50 imputed data sets was 0.63 (95% CI 0.58 to 0.69), with a calibration plot intercept of –0.25 (95% CI –0.27 to 0.11) and slope of 1.03 (95% CI 0.65 to 1.42). The updated models with the additional pain variable at 4 weeks had improved discriminatory ability over the baseline models but not better calibration.ConclusionsThe SPRAINED (Synthesising a clinical Prognostic Rule for Ankle Injuries in the Emergency Department) prognostic models performed reasonably well, and showed benefit compared with not using any model; therefore, the models may assist clinical decision-making when managing and advising ankle sprain patients in the ED setting. The models use predictors that are simple to obtain.LimitationsThe data used were from a randomised controlled trial and so were not originally intended to fulfil the aim of developing prognostic models. However, the data set was the best available, including data on the symptoms and clinical events of interest.Future workFurther model refinement, including recalibration or identifying additional predictors, may be required. The effect of implementing and using either model in clinical practice, in terms of acceptability and uptake by clinicians and on patient outcomes, should be investigated.Trial registrationCurrent Controlled Trials ISRCTN12726986.FundingThis project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full inHealth Technology Assessment; Vol. 22, No. 64. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. Funding was also recieved from the NIHR Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research, Care Oxford at Oxford Health NHS Foundation Trust, NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, Oxford, and the NIHR Fellowship programme.