Дисертації з теми "Rainfall frequency analysi"
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MAZZOGLIO, PAOLA. "Geographically-based approaches to the statistical analysis of rainfall extremes." Doctoral thesis, Politecnico di Torino, 2022. https://hdl.handle.net/11583/2973799.
Повний текст джерелаRudberg, Olov, and Daniel Bezaatpour. "Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis." Thesis, Stockholms universitet, Statistiska institutionen, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-186813.
Повний текст джерелаEckersten, Sofia. "Updating Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves in Sweden Accounting for the Observed Increase in Rainfall Extremes." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten och landskapslära, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-283714.
Повний текст джерелаÖkad extrem nederbörd har dokumenterats globalt, däribland centrala och norra Europa. Den globala uppvärmningen medför en förhöjd medeltemperatur vilket i sin tur ökar avdunstning av vatten från ytor samt atmosfärens förmåga att hålla vatten. Dessa förändringar tros kunna öka och intensifiera nederbörd. Vid bestämning av dimensionerande nederbördsintensiteter för byggnationsprojekt antas idag att frekvensen och storleken av extrem nederbörd inte kommer att förändras i framtiden (stationäritet), vilket i praktiken innebär ingen förändring i klimatet. Den här studien syftar till att undersöka effekten av en icke-stationärt antagande vid skattning av dimensionerande nederbördsintensitet. Icke-stationära och stationära nerderbördsintensiteter föråterkomsttider mellan 10 och 100år bestämdes utifrån daglig och flerdaglig svensk nederbörds- data. Nederbördintensiteterna bestämdes med extremvärdesanalys i mjukvaran NEVA, där den generella extremvärdesfördelningen anpassades till årlig maximum nederbörd på platser i Sverige som påvisade en ökande trend under de senaste 50åren (15% till 39 % utav 139 stationer, beroende på varaktighet). De dimensionerande nederbördsintensiteterna jämfördes sedan med avseende på varaktighet, återkomsttid och plats. Resultaten indikerade på att ett stationärt antagande riskerar att underskatta dimensionerande nederbördsintensiteter för en viss återkomsttid med upp till 40 %. Detta indikerar att antagandet om icke-stationäritet har större betydelse för olika platser i Sverige, vilket skulle kunna ge viktig information vid bestämning av dimensionerande regnintensiteter.
Wadden, David. "Rainfall distribution in the City of St. John's : temporal distribution, spatial variation, frequency analysis, and Tropical Storm Gabrielle /." Internet access available to MUN users only, 2002. http://collections.mun.ca/u?/theses,49727.
Повний текст джерелаTanaka, Tomohiro. "Extreme flood frequency analysis and flood risk curve development considering spatiotemporal rainfall variability." 京都大学 (Kyoto University), 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/217150.
Повний текст джерелаAlias, Nor Eliza Binti. "IMPROVING EXTREME PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES CONSIDERING REGIONAL FREQUENCY ANALYSIS." 京都大学 (Kyoto University), 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/192162.
Повний текст джерелаMiniussi, Arianna. "The metastatistical extreme value distribution for rainfall and flood frequency analysis with external drivers." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Padova, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/11577/3425928.
Повний текст джерелаLIBERTINO, ANDREA. "Advances in the space-time analysis of rainfall extremes." Doctoral thesis, Politecnico di Torino, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/11583/2671346.
Повний текст джерелаTagliaferri, Lorenza. "Probabilistic Envelope Curves for Extreme Rainfall Events - Curve Inviluppo Probabilistiche per Precipitazioni Estreme." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2008. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/99/.
Повний текст джерелаWi, Sungwook. "Impact of Climate Change on Hydroclimatic Variables." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/265344.
Повний текст джерелаBel, Coraline. "Analysis of debris-flow occurrence in active catchments of the French Alps using monitoring stations." Thesis, Université Grenoble Alpes (ComUE), 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017GREAU007/document.
Повний текст джерелаFlows – such as debris flows – caused by heavy rainfalls in torrents can mobilise a huge amount of sediments. When they reach the urbanised areas, they may endanger the people’s safety or cause damages. Approaches aimed at mitigating torrential risk widely rely on rainfall intensity-duration thresholds which determine the minimum debris-flow triggering conditions. However, these thresholds suffer from a high variability related not only to inter-site differences but also to the method applied to design them. In addition, they are likely to cause false prediction because the intensity and the duration of the rainfall event are not the only explanatory variables. This PhD research work aim (i) to provide a rigorous methodological framework for designing rainfall threshold in order to limit the variability sources, and (ii) to improve their performances by including both the triggering and the predisposing factors. It is supported by field observations stemming from high-frequency monitoring stations installed since 2011 on two very active debris flow-prone torrents in the French Alps: the Manival and the Réal. First, the images and data gathered between 2011 and 2016 were analysed in order to detect and characterise the sediment laden-flows. To deal with the variety of recorded flows, a phenomenological classification was performed. Second, the minimum intensity-duration threshold for debris-flow triggering was assessed. The threshold sensitivity to the rainfall event definition was estimated. Third, a logistic regression model was used to discriminate the critical rainfall events which do not lead to a debris flow. It makes it possible to select the most relevant explanatory variables. At last, several avenues of work were proposed (i) to move the knowledge of debris-flow initiation conditions from a local to a regional level, with a view to application in a warning system dedicated to hydrometeorological risks, and (ii) to improve the ability to predict, not the debris-flow triggering in the production zone, but the debris-flow propagation up to the area concerned
Fuentes-Andino, Diana. "Flood Hazard Assessment in Data-Scarce Basins : Use of alternative data and modelling techniques." Doctoral thesis, Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för geovetenskaper, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-317332.
Повний текст джерелаExtremt höga vattenflöden ställer till stora problem i hela världen. De skadar infrastruktur och egendom och orsakar död. Framför allt kan låg- och medelinkomstländer vara väldigt sårbara för extrema flöden. I dessa länder saknas dessutom ofta data som behövs för att kunna bedöma översvämningsrisker, eller så finns bara data av dålig kvalitet. Denna avhandling föreslår nya metoder som använder okonventionella informationskällor vid bedömning av översvämningsrisker i områden där traditionella hydrologiska data saknas eller har otillräcklig kvalitet. En metod utvecklades för att ta hänsyn till fel i rumslig medelnederbörd beräknad från ett glest nät av nederbördsmätare att användas som indata i en nederbörds-avrinningsmodell. Användning av en multiplikator för medelvärdesbildad nederbörd, i tid och rum, för enskilda högflödestillfällen ledde till förbättrad modellkalibrering. Genom att använda multiplikatorfördelningar, identifierade från tidigare högflödestillfällen i avrinningsområdet, kunde också prognoser förbättras. En andra metod använde sig av möjligheten att reproducera ett extremt högflöde inom ramen för en osäkerhetsanalys med hjälp av en kombination av modeller, nederbördsdata och data som uppmätts i efterhand. Denna kombination gjorde det möjligt att identifiera parametervärdesuppsättningar med hophörande sannolikheter ur vilka det gick att erhålla en översvämningskarta för det höga flödet. En tredje och fjärde studie i regional skala utforskade värdet av likheter mellan avrinningsområden och hur områdenas hydrologiska gensvar beror av klimatet. Kurvan för kumulativa högflödesfrekvenser (flood frequency curve, FFC) kunde skattas med hjälp av lokal nederbördsinformation och regional information om korta tidsserier av vattenföring från 36 avrinningsområden som antogs sakna vattenföringsdata. I den andra regionala studien visade sig hydroklimatisk information av värde för att avgränsa godtagbara prognoser för daglig vattenföring från en hydrologisk modell. Tidigare beskrivna metoder, använda tillsammans med okonventionell information inom ramen för en osäkerhetsanalys, visade sig vara användbara för att bedöma översvämningsrisker i avrinningsområden med databegränsningar. Bland utforskade data fanns: mätningar i efterhand av ett extremt högflöde, hydroklimatisk regional information och lokala nederbördsmätningar. Metoderna i denna avhandling förväntas kunna stödja utvecklingen av hydrologiska studier av höga flöden och översvämningar i områden med bristande datatillgång.
Las inundaciones ocasionan daños a la infraestructura, propiedad y pérdida de vidas a nivel mundial. Los países en desarrollo son los más vulnerables a inundaciones, la calidad y cantidad de datos hidro-climatológicos disponibles en los mismos dificulta el desarrollo de estudios para la evaluación de riesgo a esta amenaza. Esta tesis propone métodos en la que se hace uso de fuentes de información no-convencionales para la evaluación de riesgo por inundación en regiones con datos escasos o limitados. Un método considera el error asociado a la precipitación promedio sobre cuencas en modelos lluvia-escorrentía como un factor multiplicador del histograma del evento. El uso de la precipitación promedio junto con una distribución probabilística del factor multiplicador como datos de entrada a un modelo de lluvia-escorrentía mejoraron los hidrogramas durante los periodos de calibración y predicción. Un segundo método exploró la posibilidad de reproducir un evento extremo de inundación usando una combinación de modelos hidrológicos e hidráulico, un análisis de incertidumbre, datos hidrométricos recopilados después del evento y datos de precipitación registrados durante-el-evento. Dicha combinación permitió la identificación de los parámetros de los modelos y la elaboración un mapa de amenaza por inundaciones para dicho evento. Adicionalmente, se estimaron curvas de frecuencia de inundaciones para 36 cuencas, asumidas no aforadas, mediante un método de regionalización que usa registros de caudal de corta duración disponibles en la región. Dichas curvas fueron extendidas haciendo uso de información local sobre la frecuencia de las tormentas. Se encontró que la información hidro-climatológica tiene un gran valor para reducir el rango de incertidumbre de las simulaciones de caudal diaria de un modelo hidrológico. Los métodos anteriores se usaron en combinación con información no-convencional dentro de un análisis de incertidumbre y han probado su utilidad para la evaluación de riesgo por inundaciones en cuencas con registros escasos o limitados. Los datos utilizados en esta tesis incluyen datos hidrométricos recopilados pasado el evento, registros hidro-climatológicos regionales y precipitación local. Se espera que los métodos presentados aquí contribuyan al desarrollo de estudios hidrológicos importantes para la reducción del riesgo por inundaciones en regiones con déficit de registros hidro-climatológicos.
Chen, Bo-Yu, and 陳柏宇. "Rainfall Frequency Analysis Using Mixture Distribution of Event-Maximum Rainfall Series." Thesis, 2019. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/n5dytw.
Повний текст джерела國立臺灣大學
統計碩士學位學程
107
The Annual Maximum Series (AMS) method is a conventional way of conducting rainfall frequency analysis, which plays a crucial role in hydrology engineering in terms of hydrological risk assessment. Given any design duration, the method retrieves only the maximum rainfall within a year and approximate the Annual Maximum Rainfall (AMR) distribution by the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution according to the Extremal Types Theorem. However, the GEV approximation is inappropriate since AMS is prone to have insufficient sample size and does not take storm events and storm types into account. To overcome the above problems, the Event Maximum Series (EMS) method is proposed. The EMS method classifies storm events in Taiwan into Typhoon, Meiyu, frontal rain and convective storm. The AMR distribution of a given storm type can be derived from the corresponded event occurrence distribution and event rainfall distribution, and the AMR distribution of all events is a mixture distribution of different types of AMR distribution. As a result, the EMS method provides a more suitable and effective design-rainfall than the traditional approach. The EMS method outperforms the AMS approach in many ways. In Monte Carlo simulation, the EMS method is superior to AMS method in terms of the bias and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). Three stations in Taiwan are selected for frequency analysis and peak flow analysis, the results show that EMS method can avoid overestimation, capture larger peak flow events and is less affected by outliers. Finally, simulation and real data analyses of confidence interval (CI) through bootstrap method are performed. Although CI of both method does not achieve the theoretical coverage rate, the coverage rate of EMS method is more stable in different return period.
Tsai, Wei-Ning, and 蔡為寧. "A Study on the Rainfall Frequency Analysis." Thesis, 2001. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/86111547792291960692.
Повний текст джерела中原大學
土木工程研究所
89
Precipitation is a significant factor for hydraulic designs and project schedule control. It is a very important subject by using the past rainfall records and certain analysis methods to find the distributions of rainfall for various hydraulic engineering designs. In this study the rainfall data for one hundred years are collected from the Central Weather Bureau in the Taipei Rainfall Station. This study is focus on the long duration of rainfall analysis. Using the annual maximum series and the annual exceedance series of daily rainfall to analyze and to fit each distribution. The Goodness-of-Fit Test and the Standard Error Method are used to compare the feasibility of the distributions. The results of this study show that the Pearson TypeⅢ distribution is the best choice for both annual maximum series and annual exceedance series analysis.
Hung, Ging-Fu, and 洪菁甫. "Rainfall Intensity - Duration - Frequency Analysis in Taiwan." Thesis, 1994. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/99382868401122179053.
Повний текст джерела國立臺灣大學
農業工程學系
82
The data files of rainfall including the weather stations of CentralWeather Bureau, Taiwan Provincial Water Conservancy Bureau, and Taiwan Electric Power Company were collected and analysed in order todevelop the relations among rainfall intensity , duration and frequency for Taiwan area. The annual maximum serious is used for selection of rainfall in frequency analysis. The criteria for selection of weather stations is those have record length longer than ten years. In this research, 167 stations were chosen, which include 21 stations from Central Weather Bureau, 96 stations from Taiwan Provincial Water Conservancy Bureau, and 50 stations from Taiwan Eletric Power Company. Frequency analysis was done for a total of 167 stations based on Pearson Type of III distribution . The results from frequency analysis is used as the source data for developing rainfall intensity , duration and frequency relations. Then, multiple regression is applied to estimate the coefficients of Rainfall Intensity - Duraion - Frequency formula. The regression is based on the source data from frequency analysis corresponding return period and duration. In order to improve the accuracy of Rainfall Intensity - Duration - Frequency formula, The rainfall duration was divided into long duration and short duration. The long duration is five to seventy - two hours, and the short duration is ten minutes to five hours. The established regional Rainall Intensity - Duration - Frequency relationship for Taiwan has been preliminarily verified and shown applicable in planning and design of hydraulic works.
Kagoda, Paulo Abuneeri. "A comprehensive analysis of extreme rainfall." Thesis, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10539/5337.
Повний текст джерела林立恆. "Regional frequency analysis of annual maximum 24-hour rainfall." Thesis, 2016. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/9wcbb3.
Повний текст джерела逢甲大學
水利工程與資源保育學系
104
Regional analysis is a very important part of the design in hydraulic engineering. Base on measured data from the past,this study can find correlations between the stations.Therefore, regional analysis solve the situation inadequate data, and creates a partition for each of rainfall in Taiwan. This study used two cluster approaches, Cluster analysis and self-organizing map (SOM) with the reference of 127 raingauge data (recorded over 20-years). Hydrological factors presented annual maximum 24-hour rainfall data (mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis), and Physiographical factor displayed station locations and elevation.After this study established each rainfall characteristics partitions, this study detected partition information by L-moment method.The results showed that after adjusting rainfall characteristics data, the two classifications were likely uniformity. Next, this study used the goodness-of-fit measurement to select the best regional probability distributions of rainfall.The Cluster Analysis results show that the best regional probability distribution for 2 normal distribution ,the Gumbel I and the Pearson type III distribution were the best for 1 region.On the other hand, SOM only shows 3 normal distributions and 2 Gumbel I distributions.Finally, this study used SOM results and with Thiessen polygons method dividing Taiwan rainfall characteristics into several partition. In the absence of rainfall frequency analysis information, this storm frequency analysis results will provide a reference for the design of future project planning.
Wu, Shiang-Jen, and 吳祥禎. "A Study on Rainfall intensity-Duation-Frequency Analysis in Taiwan." Thesis, 1996. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/18433594853272823005.
Повний текст джерела國立交通大學
土木工程學系
84
The purpose of this study is to identify appropriate probability distributions for the annual maximum precipitation of various duration at ninety-two recording rain gauging stations in Taiwan .The method used in the frequency analysis is the L-moment method along with various goodness-of-fit procedures. Also, this study aims at developing a non- dimensional rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) equations based on a rainfall intensity with 25-year return period and 1-hour duration.To enhance the accuracy of the regional analysis, the cluster analysis was applied using the parameter in the IDF equation and geographical coordinates of each station. It is found the 92 raingage stations can be clustered separated by into two areas separated by the line connecting ({EMBED Equation |} E , {EMBED Equation |} N) and ({EMBED Equation |} E , {EMBED Equation |}N), as the demarcation.In the regional analysis, empirical relationships for each groupwere developed to relate each parameter in the IDF equation to the mean annual precipitation and elevation. The regional equations for the parameters in the IDF equation can be used to estimate extreme precipitation characteristics at locations where there is no precipitation record.
Chang, Hui-Wen, and 張惠雯. "Taiwan's Rainfall Frequency Analysis in the End of 21st Century." Thesis, 2010. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/14700868687489650570.
Повний текст джерела國立臺灣海洋大學
河海工程學系
98
The purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of climate change on the hydrologic frequency of drought and flood in Taiwan. Totally, 83 rain gauges with records over Taiwan were selected. Based on downscaled GCM outputs under the A1B emissions scenario, frequency of the maximum consecutive dry days and maximum 1-day, 2-day, and 3-day rainfall within 2080-2099 are studied, as compared with those within 1979-1998. Daily rainfall data from 20-km mesh AOGCM are applied. Because of underestimation of the data, it would be needed to correct the downscaling data by using the quadrant conversion method. Then the corrected data for the 83 stations over Taiwan are analyzed based on the Log-Pearson type III distribution and kriging method to realize the impact of the drought and flood frequency on Taiwan. The results show that the change of the maximum consecutive dry days within 2080-2099 over Taiwan is not significant. No large-scale drought(consecutive 100 days without rainfall)occurs in the future in the return period of 100 years, and extreme rainfall would occur in the mountains and eastern region.
Lin, Chia-Yu, and 林珈伃. "Rainfall intensity- duration -frequency analysis and rainfall intensity characteristicsof induced inclinometer displacement at Huafan University Campus." Thesis, 2019. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/dgdsum.
Повний текст джерела華梵大學
環境與防災設計學系碩士班
107
Huafan University is located in the Ta-Lun Shan area of Shih ding District, New Taipei City. It is about 430 meters to 570 meters above sea level. There is a weather station on the campus to measure the rainfall and temperature data. For slope disaster prevention there are SAA (Shape Accel Array) observation instruments to monitor slope displacement. The area of Huafan University is listed in the landslide-landslip geologically sensitive area by the Central Geological Survey. The analysis of slope displacement is more important. This study is separated into two parts. First is to analysis the characteristic of different duration rainfall intensity–duration-frequency Curve (IDF) in Huafan University, and second is to induce rainfall with tilting displacement greater than 0.5mm. The first part selects the date from 2004 to 2017 of Huafan weather station, and selects the annual maximum rainfall data from 5 minutes to 1 hour called short duration and 1 hour to 48 hours called long duration. By frequency analysis, the most suitable theoretical probability distribution is obtained, the short duration IDF and the long duration IDF are established. It is known from the study that the long duration IDF formula estimates the short duration rainfall intensity value, which is overestimated, especially when the rainfall duration is 5 minutes. The data of four days cumulative rainfall amount greater then 100mm are used to as the background value of the second part of the analysis. The second part is to select the data with the daily displacement greater than 0.5mm from SAA for the number SIS-11A and the four-day cumulative greater than 100mm, and calculate the average rainfall intensity value in two different ways. The first type is the day when the displacement occurs, as the first day, and continues to calculate forward. The second type is the three days before the tilting displacement day as the first day, and then continues to calculate backwards. Will these two methods are compared to the background values. The rainfall intensity during typhoon is widely distributed on one day and two days. The daily rainfall intensity falls between 1 (mm/day) and 305 (mm/day). The distribution of rainfall intensity on the three days and four days is concentrated. The rainfall intensity falls between 47 (mm/day) and 147 (mm/day), while the rainfall intensity of the southwest monsoon affects the four days rainfall intensity from 28 (mm/day) to 85 (mm/day). The four days rainfall intensity falls from 25 (mm/day) to 55 (mm/day). It has probability to occur tilting displacement greater than 0.5 mm when rainfall intensity is small. Keywords: Frequency Analysis、IDF、Shape Accel Array、Tilting Displacement
Lin, Shiahn-Bor, and 林獻博. "Study on Rainfall Frequency Analysis for Taiwan by Using L-moments." Thesis, 1994. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/78021558369680003460.
Повний текст джерела國立臺灣大學
農業工程學系
82
The main purpose of this study is to investigate the profound statistical characteristics for L-moments method and to use the L-moment diagram for selecting a suitable distribution.The sample estimators of L-moments are only linear combinations of the ranked observations , consequently they are subject to less bias than ordinary product moments. This is because ordinary product moment estimators such as variance and skewness require squaring and cubing the observations , respectively , which cause them to give greater weight to the observations far from the mean , resulting in substantial bias and variance. In present study , the theoretical data sets ( Gumbel & Exponential) were generated by Monte Carlo simulation and used to investigate the statistical characteristics of L-moments. The results of Monte Carlo experiments show that the L-moments estimators of parameters are more accurate than the product moments' estimators of parameter. The product moment ratios of skewness and Kurtosis are remarkably biased even for samples sizes of n=1000. The Monte Carlo simulation is performed to generate the theoretical data of PT3、LN3、GPA、UNIFORM、GUMBEL 、EXPONENTIAL distributions. The data sets are then used to verify whether the moment diagram can suitably identify their original distributions. Monte Carlo experiments reveal that the use of L-moment diagrams for selecting the suitable distribution is better than the use of product moment ratio diagrams. Moreover, the results show that it is easy to misled for selecting a suittable distribution if the product moment ratio diagrams is used. The L-moment diagrams are then used to identify the appropriate probability distribution for the rainfall data in the northern、central、southern and eastern Taiwan area.
Lin, Chih-Hang, and 林志航. "Analysis of Watershed Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Formula and its Uncertainty." Thesis, 1997. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/00341120970153421982.
Повний текст джерела國立交通大學
土木工程學系研究所
85
Engineers usually face a variety of uncertainties resided in the practical applications of the hydrological models. These uncertainties will affect directly the reliability of the model output,and indirectly the adequacyof water resources planning and hydraulic structure design.Aiming at the commonly used rainfall intensity-duration-frequency(IDF) formulathis study investigates its parameter uncertainty using the bootstrap resamplingmethod. In the meanwhile, the uncertainty of the regional IDF formaula developedby Yang et al.(1996)is evaluated by the frist-order approximation method.Forthermore, the representative reg ional averaged IDF formula of a given watershed can be obtained by integrating the on-site IDF formula,based on theconcept of area weighting. This regional average IDF formula can be used toestimate the design rainfall intensity of a watershed.Most of the large dams in Taiwan are designed according to the probable maximunprecipitation(PMP). However, the design of PMP is deterministic. This study,basedon the proposed regional average IDF formula, estimates the corresponding returnperiods of the PMP's at several damsites. The results provide useful informationfor the evaluation of dam safety
Satyanarayana, P. "Regional Frequency Analysis Of Hydrometeorological Events - An Approach Based On Climate Information." Thesis, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/2005/1110.
Повний текст джерелаLIU, DING-ZHOU, and 劉定洲. "A study on the frequency analysis of maximum rainfall in tauyuan area." Thesis, 1992. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/63221040457268964402.
Повний текст джерелаLiao, Chun-Wei, and 廖俊瑋. "The Frequency Analysis of Runoff and Rainfall in The Chingmei Stream Watershed." Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/54752038992739045755.
Повний текст джерела國立臺灣師範大學
地理學系
101
The frequency analysis is often applied in disaster prevention planning, hydraulic works design, and hazard risk analysis. It is possible to estimate the maximum volume of intensive rainfall and peak discharge based on a suitable probability distribution. The frequency analysis is also helpful for people to understand the hydrological characteristics in a watershed, and to enhance the efficiency of watershed management. The Chingmei stream watershed is selected as a study area in this research. The extreme hydrological events are analyzed, including the annual maximum daily discharge and annual one-day maximum rainfall during the period from 1970 to 2009. Four probability distributions are compared, including extreme-value type I distribution, logarithmic normal distribution, Pearson type III distribution, and logarithmic Pearson type III distribution. The estimated annual maximum daily discharge in late stage (1987-2009) is higher than that in early stage (1970-1986). Their variation is from 9.45% to 54.59%. The average of annual maximum daily discharges in late stage is bigger surpassing up to 17.77%, and the standard deviation is also increasing up to 32.45%. The estimated one-day maximum rainfall in late stage is higher than that in early stage. Their variation is from 12.87% up to 56.34%. The average of one-day maximum rainfall in late stage is bigger surpassing up to 16.74%, and the standard deviation is also exceeding up to 65.19%.The other is that the amounts of runoff and rainfall become larger during the wet season and lower during the dry seasons. Discharge in the wet season variation is from 9.12% to 12.62%. The average of wet season discharge in late stage is bigger surpassing up to 8.34%, and the standard deviation is also increasing up to 35.50%. Besides, the discharge variation is from -8.55% to -14.01% in dry season. The average of discharge in the dry season in late stage decreases to 13.42%, and the standard deviation is also up to 10.52%.These results present that extreme events increase interannually, including floods and drought. In conclusion, there is an increasing trend for the annual maximum daily discharge and annual one-day maximum rainfall in the Chingmei stream watershed. The variation is enhancing and the frequency is strengthening. It reveals that the occurrence probability of extreme hydrological events is rising in the further. The Chingmei stream is an important river in the suburbs of Taipei city. As the settlement extended along the valley, flood plains were occupied and communities were close to channel. Weather pattern and surface runoff in Taiwan have been considerably affected by the change of global climate. Therefore, the integrated watershed management should focus on land-use planning in Changed steam watershed. This will help us response to the change of runoff and rainfall characteristics in change stream.
Wu, Zheng Ji, and 吳正吉. "Study on regional frequency analysis for annual maximun daily rainfall of southern Taiwan." Thesis, 1995. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/74234249607040395665.
Повний текст джерелаLIU, ZHEN-ZHONG, and 劉振忠. "A study of hydrologic frequency analysis in Taiwan (annual maximum rainfall and streamflow)." Thesis, 1991. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/15306140112081053125.
Повний текст джерелаWei-ChihPeng and 彭微之. "Time Frequency Analysis of Tropospheric Wet Delay Series Monitored by GPS-PPP during Extreme Rainfall." Thesis, 2010. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/17742197027786139213.
Повний текст джерела國立成功大學
測量及空間資訊學系碩博士班
98
Typhoons are the most serious weather system that strike Taiwan annually. There are about three or four typhoons that affect Taiwan every year and bring destructive winds and extreme rainfalls. They can seriously cause damages of agriculture, industry and human casualties. Historical records show that on the average, there are about 20 typhoons form in this area each year and among them three to four may invade Taiwan. Plum rains are the unique weather and climate phenomenon taking place annually only in eastern Asia including Taiwan region and coastal China because this region is located in one of distinct monsoon areas in the world. Plum rains season in Taiwan is from May to June every year. This study propose the procedures facilitate GPS network PPP derived ZWD for investigating the characteristics of extreme rainfall triggered by typhoons and plum rains, the temporal and spatial relationships between GPS network PPP derived ZWD and rainfall is essential. The cross-correlation analysis is applied to GPS-PPP estimated ZWD series and accumulated precipitation series collected at four sites during typhoon cases and plum rains to obtain time delay. The Wavelet Transform spectrum analysis is applied to obtain specific frequency information to identify the ZWD and rainfall disturbance; moreover, it reveals exactly when certain events take place. The results illustrates that there is about 2-7 hours time delay in Taiwan in typhoon cases and plum rains. The characteristics of rainfall could be detected by using the Wavelet Transform analysis; it could clearly catch the time information from rainfall records. The daily cycle of variation of ZWD also could be caught by using Wavelet Transform analysis. The well-distributed e-GPS network can be considered as supplemental meteorological sensors to monitor the characteristics of extreme rainfall triggered by weather events. With improved near real-time precise products provided by other institutions, a near real-time GPS network PPP based meteorological sensors can provide useful information for developing early warning system for climate events like typhoons, plum rains, and seasonal thunderstorm in the future.
Chang, Chia-Yun, and 張家芸. "A Study on the LH-moments for Frequency Analysis of Extreme Rainfall in Climate Change." Thesis, 2012. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/16244459758422263716.
Повний текст джерела淡江大學
水資源及環境工程學系碩士班
100
Under global climate change, the frequency of extreme hydrological events such as floods and droughts has increased, complicating frequency analyses. Reasonable estimates of return periods for extreme events cannot be obtained through the use of traditional L-moments method in frequency analyses. Instead, LH-moments method which assigns higher weights to data at extreme ends of the distribution should be applied for parameter estimations. In this research, the LH-moments method is applied in the frequency analysis of extreme rainfall events, in which rainfall data are fitted to 3-parameter generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution model. The weighing factor (m) for data at extreme ends of the distribution is raised in order to obtain better estimation of the return periods. The value of the shape parameter κ is used to determine the weighing factor m, so the most reasonable return period can be obtained. The value of the shape parameter κ would also serve as a reference for follow-up data analysis.
Chen, Chen-Wei, and 陳振瑋. "A Study on the LH-moments for Frequency Analysis of Extreme Rainfall in Different Distributions." Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/21973558693576945438.
Повний текст джерела淡江大學
水資源及環境工程學系碩士班
101
In recent years, the influence of global climate change is more significant, such as the extreme rainfall events have occurred frequently. In general, the L-moments are adopted and all data are usually given the equal weighting in conventional approach of rainfall frequency analysis. However, the consequence problem is that the return periods are always estimated higher for those extreme rainfall (or higher tail) events of recently occurring. Wang (1997) first introduced the idea of LH-moments, increasing the weighting of high tail parts of Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution were developed for frequency analysis of extreme rainfall event. Moreover, Yu et al. (2012) derived the general form for various weighting factor m of LH-moments of GEV and also real applied to estimating the return period of extreme rainfall in Taiwan. The purpose of this study is to explore an approach of LH-moments for Pearson Type III distribution (PT3). First of all, the synthetic data of various parameter sets are generated to evaluate the rationality of return period estimate of LH-moments for data at high tail part of PT3. Eventually, it is hopeful that this study can be further adopted to play a referential role on application of hydrologic design.
Huang, Liang-Yun, and 黃亮芸. "Frequency Analysis of Annual Maximum 1-Day Rainfall for Ungauged Sites in Taiwan Using Regionalization Approach." Thesis, 2007. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/79724791308063577030.
Повний текст джерела淡江大學
水資源及環境工程學系碩士班
95
The purpose of the study aims to estimate frequencies of annual maximum 1-day rainfall for ungauged sites in Taiwan using regionalization approach. The index flood method with parameters estimated by L-moments is used to establish the regional frequency model. Kriging is then employed to estimate the mean annual maximum 1-day rainfall of ungauged sites in order to analyze the rainfall magnitudes of various frequencies. Delineation of homogeneous regions is determined by cluster analysis in this study based on the coordinates of the rainfall gauge stations, the means and coefficient of variation of the annual maximum 1-day rainfall. The L-moment based discordancy, heterogeneity, and goodness-of-fit measures are then used to detect unusual sites and select the optimal regional probability models. In this study, a total of 77 rainfall gauge stations are used as the basis to estimate the frequencies of the annual maximum 1-day rainfall for ungauged sites. The number of homogeneous regions derived by cluster analysis is 3. The best regional probability model for one region is Pearson type Ⅲ distribution, and generalized Pareto distribution is the best model for the other two regions. Frequency analysis for ungauged sites needs to establish the variogram models of the mean and coefficient of variation of the annual maximum 1-day rainfall first. The obtained variogram models is then used to estimate the mean annual maximum 1-day rainfall for the ungauged sites. The ungauged sites belong to which homogeneous region depend on the minimum distance to the centroid of the homogeneous regions. Combined with the derived regional frequency model and estimated mean annual maximum 1-day rainfall, the computing procedures of frequency analysis for ungauged sites are identical with the procedures of gauged sites.
LIN, JIAN-YI, and 林賢義. "Studies on hydrologic frequency analysis in Taiwan (Annual maximum 1-hr., 2-hr.,3-hr. rainfall)." Thesis, 1992. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/47930029565003731701.
Повний текст джерелаHsu, Yun-Shu, and 許雲旭. "Copula-based multisite spatial-temporal rainfall patterns and regional frequency analysis – A Case Study in Lan-Yang Basin." Thesis, 2014. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/g9t29x.
Повний текст джерела國立臺灣大學
生物環境系統工程學研究所
102
Extreme rainfall events occur increasingly and cause enormous loss; consequently, regional frequency analysis has become more important and widely used to estimate the return period of floods. However, the dependence among stations was not considered in the past. Studies have shown that the variation of rainfall patterns was affected by monsoon, especially during winter, in I-Lan area, i.e. the northeast corner of Taiwan. The most important factor that affects the precipitation in I-Lan is the local circulation caused by the triangle-shaped terrain. Therefore, without the influence of strong weather systems, e.g. typhoon, extreme rainfall events still occur. The purpose of this study is applying techniques of copula to analyze the multisite stochastic hourly rainfall patterns and regional frequency considering the dependence among surrounding rainfall stations during the period of 1960-2011. This model is following three steps to analyze the rainfall patterns and return periods. First, we use copulas to model the dependence among rainfall stations without the influence of marginal distributions, and then pair-copula structures are applied to separate the multivariate copula into several of bivariate copulas. Second, conditional probability density function is used to realize the major space-time pattern of local precipitation with different scenarios. Finally, copula-based regional frequency analysis is compared with the index flood methods with L-moments, and the return period simulation IV considering dependence among stations is also exhibited in this part. After constructing the dependent structure, the joint density function can be used to simulate the complicate regional rainfall patterns and regional return periods. In a specific scenario, the rainfall in downstream is more than in upstream when the extreme rainfall event occurs in midstream. Furthermore, copula-based return periods considering dependence are more accord with the real events than the index flood methods with L-moments. Considering dependent structure by copula can not only simulate the complex rainfall patterns but also reduce the possibility of underestimated or overestimated situation.
Garcia-Urquia, Elias. "The Use of Press Archives in the Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Rainfall-Induced Landslides in Tegucigalpa, Honduras, 1980-2005." Doctoral thesis, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-264645.
Повний текст джерелаWu, Ruo-Ying, and 吳若穎. "Taiwan's Rainfall Frequency Analysis in the End of 21st Century, Based on the GCMs of CGCM3(T47) and CNRM-CM3." Thesis, 2011. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/88717191836972481752.
Повний текст джерела國立臺灣海洋大學
河海工程學系
99
The purpose of this research is to assess the potential impact of climate change on hydrologic frequency of extreme events (drought and flood) in Taiwan. Provided by IPCC’S GCM A1B scenarios of climate model data in CGCM3(T47)and CNRM-CM3, The adjusted data by using the quadrant conversion method over Taiwan are analyzed based on the Log-Pearson type III distribution and kriging method to realize the maximum consecutive dry days and maximum 1-day, 2-day, and 3-day rainfall within 2080-2099, as compared with those within 1979-1998. For maximum 1-day to 3-day rainfall and cumulative dry days, the outcomes of CNRM-CM3(2080-2099) is higher than other models, and the outcome of CGCM3(2080-2099) is similar to the ensemble of future climate by CGCM3(T47)、CNRM-CM3、FGOALS-g1.0、GFDL-CM2.0 and CGCM2.3.2. Overall, all of GCMs’ outcomes are higher than the past value(1979-1998). This result appears the quantity and intensity of rainfall and dry might increase in the future.
Huang, China-Ching, and 黃家慶. "A Study of Estimation Rainfall Spatial Analysis Distribution by Combing Frequency and Geostatistics Approach - Sueh-Pa National Park as an Example." Thesis, 2010. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/4nuz5j.
Повний текст джерела國立中興大學
水土保持學系所
98
In these recent years, because of global warming influence, the climate became more anomalous and hydrology events became more extreme, it caused rainfall distribution in Taiwan area to be more unbalanced, and brought about an extremely severe disaster. In search of the most suitable ways for rainfall spatial distribution in Shei-Pa National Park, this research will take Shei-Pa National Park as the boundary, and use Spline , IDW(Inverse Distance Weighted), Kriging method to estimate the distribution of rainfall space, also compare the merits and demerits of these three methods, and find out the most suitable analysis method that used in this area and Hydrological observation station where is located at severe shortage area. This study will divide the rainfall into long time annual rainfall and short time daily cloudburst, and will be discussed separately, (1) for annual rainfall side, collect in the study area of annual rainfall in year 2000, and estimate its annual rainfall space distribution by using those three methods above, and also use geographical information system and traditional Thiessen Polygons method to calculate the average of annual rainfall volume, for comparing its results. (2) For cloudburst side, collect in the study area of the highest accumulated rainfall volume for 24, 48, 72 delayed rainfall volume, and also use the most extreme value of Gumbel type I distribution method and Log-Pearson Type III distribution method to analyze among 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 rainfall frequency for each year, and also take this rainfall volume as property value, and use those three methods above to estimate the distribution of cloudburst space. (3) Finally, using RMS to analyze annual rainfall and cloudburst space distribution result, and also find out the most suitable method that used in the distribution of rainfall space, and analyze DAD(Depth Area Duration) of this area and also K, n value of Hortan formula. The conclusions of this study are : (1). IDW(Inverse Distance Weighted) and Kriging method are better used in analyzing of annual rainfall space distribution, but the average of annual rainfall volume that analyzed by three methods are almost same, but it is more accurate than the results of analysis by Thiessen Polygons method. (2). Kriging method is better used in analyzing of cloudburst space distribution, its average relative error is only 7%, while by using those two other methods it will be 14%. (3). Although IDW(Inverse Distance Weighted) method is better than Spline method in annual rainfall space distribution, but the results of cloudburst space distribution are the worst, conform to Gotway and other people theory, only the stability of IDW(Inverse Distance Weighted) method is bad, and can be easily influenced by the factors. (4). The annual rainfall space distribution uses 11 sample size, while cloudburst space distribution used 14 sample size, the both sample sizes are different, and cloudburst space distribution relative error is the lowest(only 10%), we can know that if sample sizes are more, the results will be more accurate. (5). Kriging method result is the best after using RMS analysis method. There are two suggestions : (1). The average relative error is only 13.3% by using Kriging analysis method, while by using RMS analysis method, its residual is 76. Therefore, this study suggests using Kriging analysis method in annual and daily rainfall space distribution analysis. (2). When cloudburst is analyzed by using Kriging method, it can cause the boundary of estimate will be wider, thus cloudburst frequency analysis should use Log-Pearson Type III distribution method.
Yi-RuHong and 洪逸如. "Rainfall Pattern Analysis on Mountain Highway Slope Hazards and Preliminary Study on Frequency Model-A Case Study on Da-Jia River Region." Thesis, 2012. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/30673592927154611752.
Повний текст джерела國立成功大學
土木工程學系碩博士班
100
The aim of this study is to investigate the influence of the strength of precipitation to the stability of slope land along highways those spreading in the watershed of river Da-Jia during typhoons Toraji, Mindulle and Morakot. By collecting the historical precipitation data in site, the completed rainfall events during those typhoons can be obtained and be adopted to calculate the accumulated rainfall(R) and rainfall intensity(I) of the watershed. Furthermore, the concept of rolling rainfall intensity is proposed to illustrate that accumulated rainfall and rainfall intensity are not only the factors that led to the damage of slope land along the highway, the effect of duration of the rainfall intensity has to be included. Furthermore, accumulated rainfall and rolling rainfall intensity are also used to establish the snake line that is the analysis model of rainfall hydrograph and can be expressed the variations of accumulated rainfall and rolling rainfall intensity with time. In addition, both physiographical conditions and the rainfall data in area where disasters were occurred were collected. The physiographical conditions can be classified as four factors which as elevation, degree of slope, direction of slope and geologic condition and with Log-Pearson Type Ⅲ Distribution, the rainfall data is used to calculate the recurrence interval and classified it according to the severity of the disasters in the past for frequency analysis. By combining the results of classification and analysis with the snake line, the critical rainfall envelope of the study area can be defined. The disaster event occurred on June 10, 2012 is verified with the critical rainfall envelope. It is shown that the critical rainfall envelope can be the basis for the disaster capacity of mountain highway slope.