Статті в журналах з теми "Quadratic risk quality assessment criterion"
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1
Gurina, Anastasiya O., and Vladimir L. Eliseev. "The Classification Quality Assessment Criterion Outside a Training Set." Vestnik MEI, no. 1 (2022): 98–110. http://dx.doi.org/10.24160/1993-6982-2022-1-98-110.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The article addresses a commonly encountered problem of classification based on machine learning models. Given that attempts to classify objects outside the training sample are prone to yield unpredictable results, the classifiers may operate incorrectly on new data and may also be vulnerable to adversarial attacks. It is conjectured that these problems can be avoided provided that a sufficiently complete assessment of the classifier quality is made. The effectiveness of applying the conventional approach to estimating the classification quality is analyzed. Disadvantages of the conventional quality indicators, which do not allow one to evaluate the risk of errors and degree of machine learning model susceptibility to adversarial attacks, are described. А new classification quality criterion is proposed, which includes four characteristics: Excess, Deficit, Coating, and Approx (EDCA). The characteristics are quantified based on the ratio between the size of the space occupied by the training sample and the results of the classification of all points of the discretized space of features in the working range of their values. An experimental study for visual assessment and comparison of the quality of two multiclass SVM classifiers on characteristic synthetic data sets using the conventional and proposed quality indicators is carried out. The effectiveness and advantage of the newly introduced indicators in comparison with the conventional ones is demonstrated. Good interpretability of the quality indicator values, as well as the subjective consistency between the metrics and expected results from comparison of two SVM classifiers is confirmed. There is a reason to believe that application of the new approach to quality assessment will make it possible to construct more reliable classifiers based on machine learning.
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Baran, Irina, Mihaela Stela Georgescu, Laura Dumitrescu, Irina Bliuc, and Radu Aurel Pescaru. "The Surface Temperature Factor - An Assessment Criterion of Superficial Condensation Risk." Advanced Engineering Forum 21 (March 2017): 497–505. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/aef.21.497.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The emergence of condense phenomenon, generally associated with the mould, on the inner surface of the closing elements affects not only the finishing works quality, but also the comfort conditions and, not least, the occupants’ health. The phenomenon is caused by the simultaneous action of several categories of factors. If factors related to the design and structure of closing elements can be controlled by proper design and execution respecting the quality requirements, those related to users’ behaviour and to indoor and outdoor climate conditions, have a variable and random character. Hence there is the possibility that all or most of parameters, that reflect the action of these factors simultaneously, reach values that can cause mould and condensation on the surface. In these circumstances we can speak of a risk level defined as the possibility of producing an undesirable event. The risk assessment involves the precise definition of it and finding a way to calculate how often such an event may occur under particular conditions. One of the criteria to be taken into account to estimate the risk of superficial condensation is the temperature factor. The effective value of this criterion is influenced by several categories of factors that refer to the indoor climate conditions influenced by users’ behaviour, constructive and architectural features and outdoor climate. The objective of this paper is to integrate a phenomenological approach of producing the surface condensation and mould in a complex analysis, through this global criterion, using the concept of "risk”.
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Beiras, R., and T. Tato. "Marine environmental risk assessment and acute water quality criterion for pentachlorophenol in coastal waters." Ecotoxicology 27, no. 7 (April 7, 2018): 803–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10646-018-1930-8.
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Qu, Qiang, Ming Qi Chang, Lei Xu, Yue Wang, and Shao Hua Lu. "Support Vector Machine-Based Aqueduct Safety Assessment." Advanced Materials Research 368-373 (October 2011): 531–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.368-373.531.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
According to water power, structure and foundation conditions of aqueduct, it has established aqueduct safety assessment indicator system and standards. Based on statistical learning theory, support vector machine shifts the learning problems into a convex quadratic programming problem with structural risk minimization criterion, which could get the global optimal solution, and be applicable to solving the small sample, nonlinearity classification and regression problems. In order to evaluate the safety condition of aqueduct, it has established the aqueduct safety assessment model which is based on support vector machine. It has divided safety standards into normal, basically normal, abnormal and dangerous. According to the aqueduct safety assessment standards and respective evaluation level, the sample set is generated randomly, which is used to build a pair of classifier with many support vectors. The results show that the method is feasible, and it has a good application prospect in irrigation district canal building safety assessment.
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E. Worden, Robert, Christopher Harris, and Sarah J. McLean. "Risk assessment and risk management in policing." Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies & Management 37, no. 2 (May 13, 2014): 239–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/pijpsm-12-2012-0088.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to critique contemporary tools for assessing and managing the risk of police misconduct and suggest directions for their improvement. Design/methodology/approach – The paper draws on extant literature, synthesizing several lines of inquiry to summarize what the authors know about patterns of police misconduct, and what the authors know about assessing and managing police misconduct. Then the paper draws from the literature on offender risk assessment in criminal justice to draw lessons for assessing and managing the risk of police misconduct. Findings – The authors found that there is good reason to believe that the tools used to assess the risk of misconduct make suboptimal predictions about officer performance because they rely on limited information of dubious value, but also that the predictive models on which the tools are based could be improved by better emulating procedures for assessing offenders’ risk of recidivism. Research limitations/implications – Future research should examine cross-sectional and longitudinal patterns of misconduct and associations between risk-related outputs and enforcement activity, develop better measures of criterion variables, and evaluate the predictive accuracy of risk assessment tools. Practical implications – Police managers should make better use of the information available to them, improve the quantity and quality of information if feasible, and cooperate in the necessary research. Originality/value – This paper offers a new synthesis of extant research to demonstrate the limitations of contemporary provisions for assessing the risk of police misconduct, and potential avenues for useful research and improved practice.
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Roy, A. K., and S. W. Tsai. "Design of Thick Composite Cylinders." Journal of Pressure Vessel Technology 110, no. 3 (August 1, 1988): 255–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/1.3265597.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
A simple and efficient design method for thick composite cylinders is presented. Micromechanics and macromechanics are integrated by simple relations and the integrated micro and macromechanics approach has been adopted to enable the designers to instantly study the sensitivity of the micromechanical variables on the final design. The stress analysis is based on 3-dimensional elasticity by considering the cylinder in the state of generalized plane strain. The analysis for both open-ended (pipes) and closed-ended (pressure vessels) cylinders subjected to internal and external pressures and axial load is presented. The failure of the cylinders is predicted by using a 3-dimensional quadratic failure criterion. A degradation model is used to calculate burst pressures and the calculated burst pressures agree very well with the available experimental results, for both thin and thick cylinders. In optimizing multilayer cylinders, the 3-D quadratic criterion enables one to obtain the optimal layer sequence very easily. It is found that the layer sequence is very critical in optimizing, in particular, thick cylinders. In addition, the design parameters and material use efficiency of multilayer closed cylinders subjected to internal pressure have also been studied.
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Valitova, Iuliia, Tatiana Trofimova, Tatiana Simankina, and Elena Stein. "Risk assessment related to the choice of contractors performing the job." MATEC Web of Conferences 170 (2018): 01068. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201817001068.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Construction and investment projects inherent risks in an extremely wide range of human activity fields. An analysis of risks from the viewpoint of management and mitigation is conducted in this article. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of risk events related to the choice of an unqualified contractors performing the job. The compliance of duration implementation project, the budget amount, and the quality of performed work depend on this choice. The contractors risk assessment methods analysis showed that besides the overall criterion for all methods connected to the cost of work it is vital to take into account the qualifications, reputation, material and technical base of a contractor, the time and quality of the work performed previously. Existing methods with criteria of the choice of contractors performing the job are considered. The universal methodology with a set of criteria that satisfies all construction process participants, and based on publicly accessible information about companies and their experience is essential.
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Wang, Zhi-Ming, and Xia Yu. "Log-linear process modeling for repairable systems with time trends and its applications in reliability assessment of numerically controlled machine tools." Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability 227, no. 1 (September 25, 2012): 55–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1748006x12460633.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Two non-homogeneous Poisson processes including the power law process and the log-linear process with reliability improvement or deterioration are analyzed. Based on Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion, the best model of failure data is presented. The point maximum likelihood and interval estimators of the parameters, as well as seven reliability indices of the log-linear process model, such as cumulative mean time between failures, cumulative number of failures, reliability at a given time, and warranty time given reliability are given. In tests for failure time trends, both the graphical methods, including the cumulative failures versus time plot and the total-time-on-test plot, and the analytical methods including the Laplace, the Military Handbook, and the Lewis–Robinson tests are used. Three real cases for failure data with failure truncation and time truncation of multiple numerically controlled machine tools are given to illustrate the use of the proposed models.
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Simonenko, S. I., and L. A. Sokolov. "Online Human Risk Assessment at the Industrial Plants." Occupational Safety in Industry, no. 3 (March 2021): 81–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.24000/0409-2961-2021-3-81-87.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Risks of the employee unsafe behavior associated with their abilities and personal qualities are considered. The methodology is presented in the article concerning the risk assessment of unsafe behavior using online assessment by knowledge tests, ability tests and a professional personality questionnaire Deep Safety developed by Detech. The results of the employee online assessment are presented. The analysis of the criterion sample showed that the level of abilities and the level of expression of safety competencies affects both the number of cases of unsafe behavior and the overall results of work. A positive correlation was also found between the level of verbal intelligence and the propensity for safe behavior. Four safety competencies have the greatest correlation with the actual severity of safe behavior — they are law-abiding (following the rules), adherence to principles (intolerance to violations), responsibility, non-conflict. The first three of them have a positive correlation, while employees who are examples of safe behavior demonstrate a higher level of conflict. This can be explained by the fact that when they encounter violations or unsafe behavior, they openly point out this, suppress violations not being afraid to go to confrontation in the interests of ensuring safety. Online assessment is a fast and cost effective way of assessment, and, moreover, easily integrates with the professional tests and other assessment tools. We recommend that such an assessment be carried out in labor collectives with an interval of 1.5–2 years, which makes it possible to track the dynamics of indicators. One more advantage of this assessment system is that it allows not only to identify those who are prone to unsafe behavior, but to form the best strategy for interaction with the employee, to recruit labor collectives, in which, for example, the low law-abidingness of some employees would be compensated for by the high integrity of the manager and team-mates.
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Foreman-Murray, Lindsay, and Lynn S. Fuchs. "Quality of Explanation as an Indicator of Fraction Magnitude Understanding." Journal of Learning Disabilities 52, no. 2 (May 29, 2018): 181–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022219418775120.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Students’ explanations of their mathematical thinking and conclusions have become a greater part of the assessment landscape in recent years. With a sample of 71 fourth-grade students at risk for mathematics learning disabilities, we investigated the relation between student accuracy in comparing the magnitude of fractions and the quality of students’ explanations of those comparisons, as well as the relation between those measures and scores on a criterion test: released fraction items from the National Assessment of Educational Progress. We also considered the extent to which reasoning and language contribute to the prediction. Results indicated a significant moderate correlation between accuracy and explanation quality. Commonality analyses indicated that explanation quality accounts for little variance in National Assessment of Educational Progress scores beyond what is accounted for by traditional measures of magnitude understanding. Implications for instruction and assessment are discussed.
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Topolski, Mariusz. "Application of Feature Extraction Methods for Chemical Risk Classification in the Pharmaceutical Industry." Sensors 21, no. 17 (August 26, 2021): 5753. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s21175753.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The features that are used in the classification process are acquired from sensor data on the production site (associated with toxic, physicochemical properties) and also a dataset associated with cybersecurity that may affect the above-mentioned risk. These are large datasets, so it is important to reduce them. The author’s motivation was to develop a method of assessing the dimensionality of features based on correlation measures and the discriminant power of features allowing for a more accurate reduction of their dimensions compared to the classical Kaiser criterion and assessment of scree plot. The method proved to be promising. The results obtained in the experiments demonstrate that the quality of classification after extraction is better than using classical criteria for estimating the number of components and features. Experiments were carried out for various extraction methods, demonstrating that the rotation of factors according to centroids of a class in this classification task gives the best risk assessment of chemical threats. The classification quality increased by about 7% compared to a model where feature extraction was not used and resulted in an improvement of 4% compared to the classical PCA method with the Kaiser criterion, with an evaluation of the scree plot. Furthermore, it has been shown that there is a certain subspace of cybersecurity features, which complemented with the features of the concentration of volatile substances, affects the risk assessment of chemical hazards. The identified cybersecurity factors are the number of packets lost, incorrect Logins, incorrect sensor responses, increased email spam, and excessive traffic in the computer network. To visualize the speed of classification in real-time, simulations were carried out for various systems used in Industry 4.0.
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Alhourani, Ahmed, Junji Kiyono, Aiko Furukawa, and Hussam Eldein Zaineh. "Seismic Hazard in Syria Based on Completeness Analysis and Assessment." Journal of Disaster Research 13, no. 1 (February 20, 2018): 153–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2018.p0153.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
An important criterion for conducting an accurate seismic hazard analysis and assessment is the compiling of a representative and completehistorical seismic catalog for the region of interest. This paper describes the procedure to assemble a full earthquake events catalog for Syria from the years 37 AD to 2011 AD. The procedure starts with improving the quality of the compiled full catalog by eliminating manmade events by choosing a cutoff magnitude of 2.5; and by eliminating the potential aftershocks and afforeshcks using an appropriate declustering method. To examine the quality of the resultant seismic catalog (after eliminating artificial, aftershock and afforeshok earthquake) the magnitude of completeness (MC) was calculated and the distribution of MC with time showed an overall good quality of the adopted complete catalog. The adopted complete seismic catalog is then used to generate peak ground acceleration hazard maps for 475, 1000 and 2475 years return periods. The study also concludes that to accommodate for the quiescence of the DSFS and potential undetected buildup and release of seismic energy it is important to introduce 1000 and 2475 years return periods seismic hazard maps especially in the design of important structures.
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Leblond, Laurent, and Maurice Pillet. "Conformity and statistical tolerancing." International Journal of Metrology and Quality Engineering 9 (2018): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/ijmqe/2017023.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Statistical tolerancing was first proposed by Shewhart (Economic Control of Quality of Manufactured Product, (1931) reprinted 1980 by ASQC), in spite of this long history, its use remains moderate. One of the probable reasons for this low utilization is undoubtedly the difficulty for designers to anticipate the risks of this approach. The arithmetic tolerance (worst case) allows a simple interpretation: conformity is defined by the presence of the characteristic in an interval. Statistical tolerancing is more complex in its definition. An interval is not sufficient to define the conformance. To justify the statistical tolerancing formula used by designers, a tolerance interval should be interpreted as the interval where most of the parts produced should probably be located. This tolerance is justified by considering a conformity criterion of the parts guaranteeing low offsets on the latter characteristics. Unlike traditional arithmetic tolerancing, statistical tolerancing requires a sustained exchange of information between design and manufacture to be used safely. This paper proposes a formal definition of the conformity, which we apply successively to the quadratic and arithmetic tolerancing. We introduce a concept of concavity, which helps us to demonstrate the link between tolerancing approach and conformity. We use this concept to demonstrate the various acceptable propositions of statistical tolerancing (in the space decentring, dispersion).
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Christopher, T., K. Sankaranarayanasamy, and B. Nageswara Rao. "Failure Assessment on Tensile Cracked Specimens of Aluminum Alloys." Journal of Pressure Vessel Technology 126, no. 3 (August 1, 2004): 404–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/1.1767862.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
A three-parameter fracture criterion is applied to correlate fracture data from tensile cracked plates made of aluminum alloys. Fracture parameters to generate the failure assessment diagram are determined for the materials considered in the present study. Failure load estimates were found to be in good agreement with test results. The failure assessment diagram of a material generated from tensile fracture plate configurations can also be applied for failure pressure estimations of flawed pressure vessels.
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Guan, Bo, Lei Guo, Mark Gibson, and Zhengyan Li. "The derivation of water quality criteria for bisphenol A for the protection of marine species in China." Water Quality Research Journal 53, no. 3 (April 25, 2018): 156–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wqrj.2018.035.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract Bisphenol A (BPA) is an environmental estrogen that occurs widely in the aquatic environment and causes feminization to various species, including fishes and gastropods. This study aims to develop the water quality criteria for BPA in the marine environment using the species sensitivity distribution (SSD) methodology from a scientific basis. Both acute and chronic toxicity data tested with saltwater species resident to China were collected. Additional tests were conducted to supplement toxicity data with local saltwater biota, including mollusk (Ruditapes philippinarum) and fish species (Scophthalmus maximus and Pagrosomus major). Based on SSD modelling, the criterion maximum concentration of BPA was estimated to be 273 μg/L. The criterion continuous concentration (CCC) for reproductive and non-reproductive effects was calculated to be 0.46 μg/L and 4.90 μg/L, respectively. Based on the derived criteria, the acute risk of BPA in coastal waters of China was determined to be negligible with RQs (risk quotients) of <0.01. The chronic risk was however much higher with RQs of up to 0.4 and 4.3 based on non-reproductive and reproductive CCC, respectively. The ecological risk assessment for BPA based on reproductive CCC can, therefore, better protect the safety of marine species.
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Dement’eva, Marina, Ilya Terekhin, and Anastasiya Lebedeva. "Risk management to ensure the exploitation reliability of high-rise buildings." MATEC Web of Conferences 251 (2018): 06012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201825106012.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The paper presents the results of a study of design risks affecting the exploitation reliability of high-rise buildings. The aim of the study was to study and optimize risk management strategies. The relevance of the work is justified by the statistics of recorded violations in the design of high-rise buildings, which affects their quality in the process of exploitation, leading to disastrous consequences. Existing methods of risk assessment take into account natural and man-made hazards. The consequences of risk are human victims. Damage to risk is estimated from material losses. The paper suggests refinement to the methodology for assessing project risks. As a criterion of the consequences of risks, the deviation from the normative technical condition is proposed. As a criterion of damage, the value of operating costs, as well as the amount of costs for eliminating not the consequences of risks, but the costs of eliminating their causes at the design stage are proposed. The risk classification was carried out according to the design stages, according to the source of occurrence. The ranking of risk criteria was proposed to establish the priority of their elimination. The algorithm of risk management proposed by the authors can serve as an addition to existing quality control systems for the stage of designing high-rise buildings.
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Kharchenko, Yu A., G. E. Atayan, and A. I. Gritsenko. "Safety Assessment of Floating Technical Means of Oil and Gas Complex using «Survivability» Criterion." Occupational Safety in Industry, no. 2 (February 2020): 51–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.24000/0409-2961-2020-2-51-55.
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Osadcha, N. V., and D. M. Artemenko. "Assessment of the Target Criterion and Leading Indicators of Regulatory Influence in the Banking Sector." Management of Economy: Theory and Practice. Chumachenko’s Annals, no. 2020 (2020): 68–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.37405/2221-1187.2020.68-81.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The article defines the essence and methods of measuring the target criterion and leading indicators of regulatory influence in the banking sector. It is proposed to supplement prudential banking supervision, based on tracking the economic standards of individual banks, with models of discriminant analysis for a comprehensive assessment of the financial condition and risk of bankruptcy of banks. The use of the built-in reference matrix of discriminant analysis of the level of financial condition and the degree of risk of bankruptcy of the bank, as leading indicators of regulatory impact, will improve the quality of financial determination of its market value as a target criterion of regulatory impact on banking. The reference matrix serves as a reliable indicator for informed decisions by owners, managers, customers and national regulators to maintain its effective functioning and further stable development. The use of a range of values of the level of probability of bankruptcy, which is the inverse of the integral indicator of the financial condition of the bank, allows more differentiated determination of classes of banks by level of financial condition and group of banks at risk of bankruptcy. The developed reference matrix as a starting point of methodological support of comprehensive assessment of market value of banks avoids mistakes in choosing the methodological approach and methods of calculating the market value of a particular bank and identify potential bankrupt banks for detailed revaluation of their loan portfolios and securities portfolios.
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Wang, Xingang, Bingxiang Wang, Miaoxin Chang, and Lei Li. "Reliability and sensitivity analysis for bearings considering the correlation of multiple failure modes by mixed Copula function." Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability 234, no. 1 (September 24, 2019): 15–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1748006x19876137.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The correlation between contact fatigue failure and wear failure of rolling bearing is analyzed, and the reliability model of rolling bearing based on multi-correlation failure mode is established. Based on the improved linear fatigue cumulative damage theory and wear theory, the limit state equations of two failure modes are established, and the correlation of state functions of contact fatigue and wear failure modes is described by the mixed Copula function. The random sample data are generated by Monte Carlo method, and the unknown parameters are estimated by genetic algorithm based on the minimum deviation square criterion, then the dynamic reliability model of rolling bearing is established. The quadratic polynomial without cross-term is used as the implicit functional proxy model, then the Latin hypercube sampling method and least squares theory are employed to estimate parameters of mixed Copula function and finally, the reliability sensitivity analysis of multi-failure modes of bearing is presented by fourth-order moment estimation method. Taking a certain type of spherical roller bearing as an example, the bearing reliability analysis considering the correlation of failure modes is carried out. The results show that compared with the bearing reliability model based on the assumption of independent failure modes and the weakest link theory, the bearing reliability model based on multi-correlation failure is more consistent with the practical application.
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Yoshikawa, Masaki, Akihiko Katoh, and Kazuaki Sasaki. "A Failure Assessment Method for a Pipe Bend Subjected to Both a Bending Moment and Internal Pressure." Journal of Pressure Vessel Technology 128, no. 4 (December 1, 2005): 605–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/1.2349574.
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This paper proposes a new failure assessment method for a steel pipe bend subjected to both a bending moment and internal pressure. Consistent with previous studies, it was shown that the maximum bending moment of a pipe bend subjected to a bending moment increases with the addition of internal pressure. However, it was experimentally confirmed that the addition of this internal pressure has the detrimental effect of significantly reducing the critical deformation (maximum bending angle) of the pipe bend. In addition, it was found that, subsequent to the application of a large deflection, cracks initiate at the most deformed part of the pipe bend during the process of unloading the internal pressure and then the applied load. Herein, the authors propose a practical failure assessment method which uses small-scale tests and nonlinear finite element (FE) analyses to predict the critical deformation and crack initiation position for a full-scale pipe bend. The failure criterion, which uses principal stress, mean stress, and equivalent plastic strain, was developed using small-scale tests. A failure assessment was conducted by comparing the predictions of this criterion with stress and strain histories obtained from FE analyses. Also, the authors’ failure criterion was compared with previous failure criteria, and the advantages/disadvantages discussed.
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Afonin, Viktor, Anastasia Vasilevna Savkina, and Vladimir Nikulin. "ALGORITHM AND METHODS OF RANKING GROUP OF BITMAP IMAGES." Vestnik of Astrakhan State Technical University. Series: Management, computer science and informatics 2021, no. 4 (October 29, 2021): 58–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.24143/2072-9502-2021-4-58-67.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The article presents an algorithm and a methodology of ranking a group of raster images by using the criterion of their expected quality. Ranking refers to the evaluation of a sample of bitmap images in a descending order of their quality, the image quality assessment being performed on the basis of a number of statistical parameters, such as coefficients of variation, determination, rank correlation index, as well as errors (absolute maximum error, average error, average quadratic error). The differences between the images are based on converting a full-color RGB image into HSV, Lab, NTSC, XYZ, YCbCr color models, which are represented as one-dimensional pixel ma-trices. The colour model RGB is taken as a reference. In relation to it, the proposed statistical char-acteristics of other color models are compared, any object of each color model being compared with the base model - an RGB image. Based on this comparison, all images of a given group are analyzed independently of each other. Image quality assessment is performed in a module that can be used to cycle through multiple images and is represented in numerical form as a real number. One of the module blocks calculates the statistical parameters between each color model and the base RGB model. After receiving the values of the quality scores they are ranked according to their values. As a result, an image with a higher or lower scene quality can be determined. Images with blocking artifacts, noisy images of the salt & pepper type, and images with strobe effects artifacts were considered as test images.
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Nagata, Makoto, Masuhiro Beppu, Hiroyoshi Ichino, and Harumi Yashiro. "Proposal on risk assessment of reinforced concrete structures subjected to explosive loads." International Journal of Protective Structures 8, no. 3 (September 2017): 407–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2041419617721549.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This study proposes an evaluation method to assess the risk of a reinforced concrete structure subjected to an explosive load such as that resulting from a terrorist bombing attack. First, a hazard curve that represents the relationship between the frequency of explosive incidents and the explosive mass was evaluated based on the statistics of terrorist bombing incidents. Second, to evaluate the damage state of the reinforced concrete structure due to the explosive load, fragility curves for the reinforced concrete members, such as beams, columns, and slabs, were evaluated using a single-degree-of-freedom model and a rotational capacity–based criterion. The fragility curve shows the relationship between the damage probability level, such as “no damage,” “small damage,” “collapse,” and an explosive mass. The total failure probability of the reinforced concrete structure was estimated by superposing the fragility curves of the members and by incorporating the reducing effect of floor slabs in the reinforced concrete structure on the blast load. A loss curve was drawn based on the damage state of the reinforced concrete structure by assuming the number of human lives lost and the reinforced concrete structure in each damage state. A risk curve was then derived by combining the hazard curve with the loss curve.
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Giurgiu, Marco, Simon Kolb, Carina Nigg, Alexander Burchartz, Irina Timm, Marlissa Becker, Ellen Rulf, et al. "Assessment of 24-hour physical behaviour in children and adolescents via wearables: a systematic review of free-living validation studies." BMJ Open Sport & Exercise Medicine 8, no. 2 (May 2022): e001267. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjsem-2021-001267.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
ObjectivesStudies that assess all three dimensions of the integrative 24-hour physical behaviour (PB) construct, namely, intensity, posture/activity type and biological state, are on the rise. However, reviews on validation studies that cover intensity, posture/activity type and biological state assessed via wearables are missing.DesignSystematic review. The risk of bias was evaluated by using the QUADAS-2 tool with nine signalling questions separated into four domains (ie, patient selection/study design, index measure, criterion measure, flow and time).Data sourcesPeer-reviewed validation studies from electronic databases as well as backward and forward citation searches (1970–July 2021).Eligibility criteria for selecting studiesWearable validation studies with children and adolescents (age <18 years). Required indicators: (1) study protocol must include real-life conditions; (2) validated device outcome must belong to one dimension of the 24-hour PB construct; (3) the study protocol must include a criterion measure; (4) study results must be published in peer-reviewed English language journals.ResultsOut of 13 285 unique search results, 76 articles with 51 different wearables were included and reviewed. Most studies (68.4%) validated an intensity measure outcome such as energy expenditure, but only 15.9% of studies validated biological state outcomes, while 15.8% of studies validated posture/activity type outcomes. We identified six wearables that had been used to validate outcomes from two different dimensions and only two wearables (ie, ActiGraph GT1M and ActiGraph GT3X+) that validated outcomes from all three dimensions. The percentage of studies meeting a given quality criterion ranged from 44.7% to 92.1%. Only 18 studies were classified as ‘low risk’ or ‘some concerns’.SummaryValidation studies on biological state and posture/activity outcomes are rare in children and adolescents. Most studies did not meet published quality principles. Standardised protocols embedded in a validation framework are needed.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42021230894.
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Yeo, Seoungsoon, and Misook Kim. "Predictive Growth Modeling of Listeria monocytogenes in Rice Balls and Its Risk Assessment." Journal of Food Quality 2020 (September 10, 2020): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/1526439.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This study aimed to investigate the growth of Listeria monocytogenes in rice balls and to conduct its microbial risk assessment based on the Korean dietary pattern. Each tuna or ham rice ball was mixed with mayonnaise, soy sauce, or gochujang, a Korean traditional fermented red peeper paste, which was artificially contaminated with L. monocytogenes and then stored at 7°C–25°C to assess bacterial growth. Growth data were analyzed using three primary models (the Huang, Baranyi, and Gompertz models), and the growth pattern was found to fit well to the Baranyi model based on the following five statistical criteria: root mean square error (0.38–0.56), Akaike’s information criterion (−51.55–−26.99), coefficient of determination (0.72–0.97), bias factor (0.97–1.01), and accuracy factor (1.06–1.18). The effects of temperature on bacterial growth rate and lag time were evaluated using the square root model. The minimum growth temperature for L. monocytogenes in tuna or ham rice balls was the lowest when they were mixed with mayonnaise (−9.44°C or −15.37°C, respectively). Risk assessment using FDA-iRISK showed that tuna or ham rice balls mixed with gochujang exhibited the highest microbial risk among all the rice balls tested, regardless of the storage temperature. Tuna or ham rice balls mixed with gochujang had the highest disability-adjusted life years per year (0.015) followed by ham rice balls mixed with soy sauce (0.011–0.015) or mayonnaise (0.006–0.015) and then tuna rice balls mixed with soy sauce (0.006–0.008) or mayonnaise (<0.001). In conclusion, our results, determined using predictive growth models, allow the assessment of potential risk ranking associated with the consumption of rice balls contaminated with L. monocytogenes based on the number of illnesses experienced per serving and the disease burden.
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Bastos, C. R. A., H. Otta, L. P. M. Poppe, M. F. B. Silva, and M. G. F. Dantas. "Evaluation of Groundwater Potential Pollution Sources in the State of São Paulo, Brazil." Water Science and Technology 24, no. 11 (December 1, 1991): 221–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.1991.0355.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The objective of this work is to present the methodology used in the project “Vulnerability Mapping and Groundwater Pollution Risk in the State of São Paulo, Brazil”, implemented by the DAEE, CETESB and Institute of Geology, and intended to be a risk assessment procedure to evaluate the threat of groundwater quality deterioration using existing data. Such method is based on the interaction between the natural aquifer vulnerability and an imposed contaminant load generated by human activities, and aims to identify critical areas to prioritize the adoption of control measures and more intensive quality monitoring. This paper describes the principles used in the assessment of the contaminant load generated by industries, solid waste disposal and mining activities in the State. More than 500 industries were identified as important groundwater potential pollution sources, and a criterion of ranking their capability to generate contaminant loads to the aquifer was|established.
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Hernández-Mena, Leonel, María Guadalupe Panduro-Rivera, José de Jesús Díaz-Torres, Valeria Ojeda-Castillo, Jorge del Real-Olvera, Malaquías López-Cervantes, Reyna Lizette Pacheco-Domínguez, et al. "GIS, Multivariate Statistics Analysis and Health Risk Assessment of Water Supply Quality for Human Use in Central Mexico." Water 13, no. 16 (August 12, 2021): 2196. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w13162196.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The spatial assessments of water supply quality from wells, springs, and surface bodies were performed during the dry and rainy seasons in six municipalities in the eastern regions of Michoacán (Central Mexico). Different physicochemical parameters were used to determine the supplies’ Water Quality Index (WQI); all of the communities presented good quality. The analysis indicates that many water quality parameters were within limits set by the international standards, showing levels of “excellent and good quality” according to WQI, mainly during the dry season (except at San Pedro Jácuaro and Irimbo communities in the rainy season). However, some sites showed “poor quality” and “unsuitable drinking water” related to low pH levels (<5) and high levels of turbidity, color, Fe, Al, Mn, and arsenic. Multivariate statistical analysis techniques (Principal Component and Hierarchical Cluster) and geographic information system (GIS) identify potential sources of water pollution and estimate the geographic extension of parameters with negative effects on human health (mainly in communities without sampling). According to multivariate analysis, the Na+/K+ ratio and water temperature (22–42 °C) in various sites suggest that the WQI values were affected by geological and geothermal conditions and physical changes between seasons, but were not from anthropogenic activity. The GIS established predictions about the probable spatial distribution of arsenic levels, pH, temperature, acidity, and hardness in the study area, which provides valuable information on these parameters in the communities where the sampling was not carried out. The health risk assessment for dermal contact and ingestion showed that the noncancer risk level exceeded the recommended criteria (HQ > 1) in the rainy season for three target groups. At the same time, the carcinogenic risk (1 × 10−3) exceeded the acceptability criterion in the rainy season, which suggests that the As mainly represents a threat to the health of adults, children, and infants.
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SCHNEIDEWIND, NORMAN. "APPLYING NEURAL NETWORKS TO SOFTWARE RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT." International Journal of Reliability, Quality and Safety Engineering 17, no. 04 (August 2010): 313–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218539310003834.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
We adapt concepts from the field of neural networks to assess the reliability of software, employing cumulative failures, reliability, remaining failures, and time to failure metrics. In addition, the risk of not achieving reliability, remaining failure, and time to failure goals are assessed. The purpose of the assessment is to compare a criterion, derived from a neural network model, for estimating the parameters of software reliability metrics, with the method of maximum likelihood estimation. To our surprise the neural network method proved superior for all the reliability metrics that were assessed by virtue of yielding lower prediction error and risk. We also found that considerable adaptation of the neural network model was necessary to be meaningful for our application – only inputs, functions, neurons, weights, activation units, and outputs were required to characterize our application.
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Chen, Kuen-Suan, Chiao-Tzu Huang, and Tsang-Chuan Chang. "Decision-Making for the Selection of Suppliers Based on the Process Quality Assessment." International Journal of Reliability, Quality and Safety Engineering 27, no. 06 (June 7, 2020): 2050016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218539320500163.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Supplier selection is a practical problem in supply chain management and quality is the most important criterion in supplier selection. In this study, we developed a supplier selection model based on process quality, in which the Six Sigma quality index [Formula: see text] is used as a tool to assess the process quality provided by suppliers. Note that index estimation based on sample data is prone to uncertainty in the assessment of process quality. Therefore, we derived the confidence interval of [Formula: see text] via mathematical programming to reduce the likelihood of assessment miscalculations, and then used this interval to perform a pairwise comparison of suppliers. Our goal was to identify criteria that can be used to select the optimal suppliers for long-term collaborations and sustainable partnerships. A case study is also presented to demonstrate the practical implementation of the proposed method.
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Sember, Vedrana, Kaja Meh, Maroje Sorić, Gregor Starc, Paulo Rocha, and Gregor Jurak. "Validity and Reliability of International Physical Activity Questionnaires for Adults across EU Countries: Systematic Review and Meta Analysis." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 19 (September 30, 2020): 7161. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17197161.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO registration number: CRD42020138845) critically evaluates test-retest reliability, concurrent validity and criterion validity of different physical activity (PA) levels of three most commonly used international PA questionnaires (PAQs) in official language versions of European Union (EU): International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ-SF), Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ), and European Health Interview Survey-Physical Activity Questionnaire (EHIS-PAQ). In total, 1749 abstracts were screened, 287 full-text articles were identified as relevant to the study objectives, and 20 studies were included. The studies’ results and quality were evaluated using the Quality Assessment of Physical Activity Questionnaires checklist. Results indicate that only ten EU countries validated official language versions of selected PAQs. A meta-analysis revealed that assessment of moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) is the most relevant PA level outcome, since no publication bias in any of measurement properties was detected while test-retest reliability was moderately high (rw = 0.74), moderate for the criterion (rw = 0.41) and moderately-high for concurrent validity (rw = 0.72). Reporting of methods and results of the studies was poor, with an overall moderate risk of bias with a total score of 0.43. In conclusion, where only self-reporting of PA is feasible, assessment of MVPA with selected PAQs in EU adult populations is recommended.
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Bojar, Piotr, Maciej Woropay, Mirosław Szubartowski, and Michał Bacior. "Assessment of the Influence of the Human Factor on Safety of the Transportation Process / Ocena Wpływu Czynnika Ludzkiego Na Bezpieczeństwo Procesu Transportowego." Journal of KONBiN 25, no. 1 (March 1, 2013): 85–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/jok-2013-0070.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract Safety of the transport process is a criterion of top priority for a transportation system operation and maintenance. It is of special importance in case of public municipal transportation. Systems of this type operate in specific road conditions: increased intensity of traffic during a day and night, a big number of pedestrians as well as drivers of other vehicles. In such conditions the human factor and its impact on the transport system operation is of key importance. A human can be involved in the transportation system as a driver, passenger, pedestrian, or in another way (cyclist, motorcyclist). Improper behavior of people account for 36% - 46% of road accident causes defined as undesirable events occurred within the space of the road. In this paper there has been mad an attempt to evaluate the transportation system from the point of view of people present in the transportation system and its environment.
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Jasiulewicz-Kaczmarek, Małgorzata, Katarzyna Antosz, Patryk Żywica, Dariusz Mazurkiewicz, Bo Sun, and Yi Ren. "Framework of machine criticality assessment with criteria interactions." Eksploatacja i Niezawodnosc - Maintenance and Reliability 23, no. 2 (January 28, 2021): 207–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.17531/ein.2021.2.1.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Criticality is considered as a fundamental category of production planning, maintenance process planning and management. The criticality assessment of machines and devices can be a structured set of activities allowing to identify failures which have the greatest potential impact on the company’s business goals. It can be also used to define maintenance strategies, investment strategies and development plans, assisting the company in prioritizing their allocations of financial resources to those machines and devices that are critical in accordance with the predefined business criteria. In a criticality assessment process many different and interacting criteria have to be taken into consideration, despite the fact that there is a high level of uncertainty related to various parameters. In addition, not all assessment criteria are equally important. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the weight of each criterion taking into account different requirements of machine criticality process stakeholders. That is why a novel model of a machine criticality assessment is proposed in this paper. The model extends the existing methods of assessing machines criticality, taking into account not only the importance of machine criticality assessment criteria, but also possible interactions between them.
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Zou, Quanle, Tiancheng Zhang, and Wei Liu. "A fire risk assessment method based on the combination of quantified safety checklist and structure entropy weight for shopping malls." Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability 235, no. 4 (January 24, 2021): 610–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1748006x20987378.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
In recent years, various large- and medium-sized shopping malls have been essential components of each city with the speed-up of China’s urbanization process and the improvement of residents’ living standard. A method for evaluating fire risk in shopping malls based on quantified safety checklist and structure entropy weight method was proposed according to related literatures as well as laws and regulations by analyzing the characteristics of fires occurring in shopping malls in recent years. At first, the factors influencing the fire risk in shopping malls were determined by carrying out on-site survey and visiting related organizations to construct an evaluation index system for fires occurring in shopping malls; afterwards, a quantified safety checklist composed of four parts (i.e. safety grade, grade description, scoring criterion and index quantification) was established based on related laws and regulations; subsequently, index weights were determined by utilizing structure entropy weight method, thus putting forward a method for assessing fire risk in shopping malls based on quantified safety checklist and structure entropy weight method. Eventually, the applicability of the evaluation method was validated exampled by Wal-Mart. The research result provides a theoretical basis for further improvement of the theoretical system for fire risk evaluation in shopping malls, and also exerts practical and guidance significance on timeous and effective early warning as well as prevention and control of building fires.
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Sitarz, Marek, Katarzyna Chruzik, and Ilona Mańka. "Integrated Safety Management System of the Railway Transport." Journal of Konbin 14-15, no. 1 (January 1, 2010): 223–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/v10040-008-0180-x.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Integrated Safety Management System of the Railway Transport The railway transport safety is the basic criterion responsible for its functioning evaluation, furthermore, it decides about its efficiency and also about the wide perceived grade of transport service quality. All parties, who are involved in the railway transport apply safety related procedures and they carry out the risk assessment regarding the process, which they perform for the railway engineering. In the article, there has been presented the present prevailing condition, but also the new legal requirements, connected with the safety in railway transport at the stage of design, manufacturing as well as the repair of products belonging to the railway transport, and also within the process of transport and management of both the railway infrastructure and railway sidings.
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Balch, Michael Scott, Ryan Martin, and Scott Ferson. "Satellite conjunction analysis and the false confidence theorem." Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 475, no. 2227 (July 2019): 20180565. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2018.0565.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Satellite conjunction analysis is the assessment of collision risk during a close encounter between a satellite and another object in orbit. A counterintuitive phenomenon has emerged in the conjunction analysis literature, namely, probability dilution, in which lower quality data paradoxically appear to reduce the risk of collision. We show that probability dilution is a symptom of a fundamental deficiency in probabilistic representations of statistical inference, in which there are propositions that will consistently be assigned a high degree of belief, regardless of whether or not they are true. We call this deficiency false confidence. In satellite conjunction analysis, it results in a severe and persistent underestimate of collision risk exposure. We introduce the Martin–Liu validity criterion as a benchmark by which to identify statistical methods that are free from false confidence. Such inferences will necessarily be non-probabilistic. In satellite conjunction analysis, we show that uncertainty ellipsoids satisfy the validity criterion. Performing collision avoidance manoeuvres based on ellipsoid overlap will ensure that collision risk is capped at the user-specified level. Furthermore, this investigation into satellite conjunction analysis provides a template for recognizing and resolving false confidence issues as they occur in other problems of statistical inference.
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Leśniewski, Piotr, and Andrzej Bartoszewicz. "LQ Optimal Sliding Mode Control of Periodic Review Perishable Inventories with Transportation Losses." Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2013 (2013): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/325274.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
In this work we apply the control-theoretic approach to design a new replenishment strategy for inventory systems with perishable stock. Such systems are supposed to effectively satisfy an unknown and permanently time-varying consumers’ demand. The main obstacle of achieving this goal is the need of obtaining supplies from a distant source. During the supply process goods are inevitably lost due to various causes. Furthermore, those goods which successfully arrive at the distribution center still deteriorate while stored in its warehouse. We explicitly take into account both of these factors in designing our control strategy. We propose a sliding mode strategy and choose its parameters to minimize a quadratic quality criterion. This approach allows us to ameliorate the bullwhip effect (the amplification of the demand variations when going up in the supply chain). The control strategy proposed in this work ensures bounded orders, guarantees full consumers’ demand satisfaction, and eliminates the risk of exceeding the warehouse capacity. These properties are stated in three theorems and proved in the paper.
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Daus, Maria E., and Yurii V. Daus. "Estimating environmental risk assessment for drinking and fisheries use (on the example of the Danube river – the city Vilkovo)." Journal of Geology, Geography and Geoecology 30, no. 1 (April 7, 2021): 25–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.15421/112103.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The Danube is a source of water for the household and industrial needs of Ukrainian population, industry and agriculture. The Danube waters are used for drinking centralized water supply in the cities of Kiliya and Vilkovo, as well as fisheries in the region. Therefore, it was important to carry out the “Environmental Risk Assessment for Drinking and Fisheries Use (on the example of the Danube River –the city Vilkovo)”. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the application of the environmental risk criterion R on the basis of hydrochemical observations to verify the safety of drinking and fishery use. Analysis of environmental problems of the lower Danube River - Vilkovo; assessment of the environmental situation; calculation of water quality risk indicators according to the methodology of the Institute of Market Problems and Economic and Environmental Research of the NAS of Ukraine; establishing a link between water quality and risk is the finding of the research. It is established that the environmental situation is “critical” due to suspended substances, phenols, manganese and HCC for drinking water supply and “strained” through chromium, manganese, HCC, copper for fishery use. An assessment of the water quality by the modified Water Pollution Index (IWM) showed that the water is “moderately polluted” and “contaminated”. For both types of water use, normalized aggregated pollution indices were calculated taking into account the likelihood of a risk event occurring and R risk indicators were determined by year. It is established that there is a close linear relationship between WSS and R. It is shown that environmental risk estimates, based on the probability of exceeding concentrations of pollutants above the MPC, reflect well the ecological status of the water.
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McPhail, Emma, and Ian Yanson. "The improvement of the quality of medical reviews of patients in seclusion in Rampton Hospital." BJPsych Open 7, S1 (June 2021): S333. http://dx.doi.org/10.1192/bjo.2021.874.
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AimsImprove and standardise the quality of medical seclusion reviews (MSRs).Acknowledge existing good practise.Highlight areas for improvement.Improve the awareness of doctors performing MSRs of the requirements in the Mental Health Act Code of Practice (MHA CoP)BackgroundMSRs are an essential clinical tool to ensure safe and consistent patient care. Patients detained in seclusion can be at heightened risk of poor mental and physical health, in addition to being a risk to themselves and others. There is clear guidance in the MHA CoP regarding what areas require to be covered in a MSR.MethodA retrospective audit of all MSRs in September 2019 across all patients within all directorates within Rampton Hospital was undertaken. 281 inpatients were identified within Rampton Hospital, and 61 of these patients were found to have had seclusion in September 2019. A total of 439 MSRs were identified for these patients.The standard applied was the MHA CoP guidance for MSRs: 1)MSRs should be conducted in person, and should include:2)Review of physical health3)Review of psychiatric health4)Assessment of the adverse effects of medication5)Review of observations required6)Reassessment of medication prescribed7)Assessment of the patient's risk to others8)Assessment of the patient's risk of self-harm9)Assessment of the need for continuing seclusion100% compliance with targets or a reason why it was not possible was expected to be documented.ResultThe results show there is a large variation in compliance with the MHA CoP. The area with the highest compliance was the completion of reviews in person-(99.3%). The criterion with the average worst compliance was whether the need for physical observations was reviewed-(4.3%). Physical health was reviewed in 86.1% of cases, in contrast to psychiatric health at 38.3%. The adverse effects of medication and reassessment of medication prescribed were recorded in only 8.9%. The risk from the patient to others was recorded in 25.3%, whereas risk to self was recorded in 10.7%. The need for continuing seclusion was recorded in 72.7%.ConclusionThe quality of MSRs at Rampton Hospital is currently inadequate. Improvement in practice is required to meet accepted standards and ensure safe, consistent patient care. Ways to improve this are being considered, including improving the knowledge of the MHA CoP and providing a MSR template.
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Junaid, Muhammad, Ye Xue, Muzzammil Wasim Syed, Ji Zu Li, and Muhammad Ziaullah. "A Neutrosophic AHP and TOPSIS Framework for Supply Chain Risk Assessment in Automotive Industry of Pakistan." Sustainability 12, no. 1 (December 24, 2019): 154. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12010154.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Risk is inherent in all parts of life and brings consequences, but when it specifically emerges in supply chains, it is susceptible. Therefore, this study aims at identifying and assessing supply chain risks and developing criteria for managing these risks. Supply chain (SC) risks consist of complex, uncertain, and vague information, but risk assessment techniques in the literature have been unable to handle complexity, uncertainty, and vagueness. Therefore, this study presents a holistic approach to supply chain risk management. In this paper, neutrosophic (N) theory is merged with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) to deal with complexity, uncertainty, and vagueness. Then the proposed methodology is practically implemented through a case study on the automotive industry. SC resilience, SC agility, and SC robustness were selected as criteria for managing supply chain risks and analyzed using N-AHP. Furthermore, seventeen risks were identified and assessed by using N-TOPSIS. Results suggest supply chain resilience is the most important criterion for managing supply chain risks. Moreover, supplier delivery delays, supplier quality problems, supplier communication failures, and forecasting errors are the most vulnerable risks that occur in supply chains of the automotive industry in Pakistan.
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Zin, Win Win, Akiyuki Kawasaki, Georg Hörmann, Ralph Allen Acierto, Zin Mar Lar Tin San, and Aye Myat Thu. "Multivariate Flood Loss Estimation of the 2018 Bago Flood in Myanmar." Journal of Disaster Research 15, no. 3 (March 30, 2020): 300–311. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2020.p0300.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Flood loss models are essential tools for assessing flood risk. Flood damage assessment provides decision makers with critical information to manage flood hazards. This paper presents a multivariable flood damage assessment based on data from residential building and content damage from the Bago flood event of July 2018. This study aims to identify the influences on building and content losses. We developed a regression-based flood loss estimation model, which incorporates factors such as water depth, flood duration, building material, building age, building condition, number of stories, and floor level. Regression approaches, such as stepwise and best subset regression, were used to create the flood damage model. The selection was based on Akaike’s information criterion (AIC). We found that water depth, flood duration, and building material were the most significant factors determining flood damage in the residential sector.
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Simopoulos, Thomas T. "Systematic Review of the Diagnostic Accuracy and Therapeutic Effectiveness of Sacroiliac Joint Interventions." Pain Physician 5;18, no. 5;9 (September 14, 2015): E713—E756. http://dx.doi.org/10.36076/ppj.2015/18/e713.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Background: The sacroiliac joint is well known as a cause of low back and lower extremity pain. Prevalence estimates are 10% to 25% in patients with persistent axial low back pain without disc herniation, discogenic pain, or radiculitis based on multiple diagnostic studies and systematic reviews. However, at present there are no definitive management options for treating sacroiliac joint pain. Objective: To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy and therapeutic effectiveness of sacroiliac joint interventions. Study Design: A systematic review of the diagnostic accuracy and therapeutic effectiveness of sacroiliac joint interventions. Methods: The available literature on diagnostic and therapeutic sacroiliac joint interventions was reviewed. The quality assessment criteria utilized were the Quality Appraisal of Reliability Studies (QAREL) checklist for diagnostic accuracy studies, Cochrane review criteria to assess sources of risk of bias, and Interventional Pain Management Techniques – Quality Appraisal of Reliability and Risk of Bias Assessment (IPM – QRB) criteria for randomized therapeutic trials and Interventional Pain Management Techniques – Quality Appraisal of Reliability and Risk of Bias Assessment for Nonrandomized Studies (IPM – QRBNR) for observational therapeutic assessments. The level of evidence was based on a best evidence synthesis with modified grading of qualitative evidence from Level I to Level V. Data sources included relevant literature published from 1966 through March 2015 that were identified through searches of PubMed and EMBASE, manual searches of the bibliographies of known primary and review articles, and all other sources. Outcome Measures: For the diagnostic accuracy assessment, and for the therapeutic modalities, the primary outcome measure of pain relief and improvement in functional status were utilized. Results: A total of 11 diagnostic accuracy studies and 14 therapeutic studies were included. The evidence for diagnostic accuracy is Level II for dual diagnostic blocks with at least 70% pain relief as the criterion standard and Level III evidence for single diagnostic blocks with at least 75% pain relief as the criterion standard. The evidence for cooled radiofrequency neurotomy in managing sacroiliac joint pain is Level II to III. The evidence for conventional radiofrequency neurotomy, intraarticular steroid injections, and periarticular injections with steroids or botulinum toxin is limited: Level III or IV. Limitations: The limitations of this systematic review include inconsistencies in diagnostic accuracy studies with a paucity of high quality, replicative, and consistent literature. The limitations for therapeutic interventions include variations in technique, variable diagnostic standards for inclusion criteria, and variable results.Conclusion: The evidence for the accuracy of diagnostic and therapeutic effectiveness of sacroiliac joint interventions varied from Level II to Level IV. Key words: Chronic low back pain, sacroiliac joint pain, sacroiliitis, sacroiliac joint injection, sacroiliac joint dysfunction, thermal radiofrequency, pulsed radiofrequency
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Bryukhan, Fedor, and Grigoriy Barulin. "Assessment of tornado hazard in the nuclear facilities siting areas." Nuclear Technology and Radiation Protection 35, no. 3 (2020): 216–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/ntrp2003216b.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The potential hazard of destructive tornado effects on nuclear facilities determines the necessity to study the climatic regime of tornado passage and arrange the appropriate protection of these facilities in conformity with the national and international radiation safety standards. One of the most characteristic features of the climate in recent decades is a significant increase in the number of dangerous meteorological events, including tornadoes. The purpose of this study is to assess the level of tornadoes hazard for nuclear facilities and to determine the design characteristics of tornadoes. The data on the tornado passage through the tornado-hazardous subzone A-L on the territory of the former USSR made it possible to estimate the probability of tornadoes passing through a hypothetical nuclear facility site, showing that it does not exceed the probability of the criterion in force in Russia ? the threshold probability of 10?4 per reactor per year. It is shown that such a threshold probability can be achieved if two or more tornadoes of intensity class F5 on the Fujita scale would pass through subzone A-L. For such a hypothetical scenario, the design characteristics of a probable tornado were determined. The need to improve the regulatory and technical base in the field of nuclear facilities safety is noted to ensure their reliable protection from the effects of tornadoes.
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Zhu, Xian-Kui, and Brian N. Leis. "Influence of Yield-to-Tensile Strength Ratio on Failure Assessment of Corroded Pipelines." Journal of Pressure Vessel Technology 127, no. 4 (June 1, 2005): 436–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/1.2042481.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This paper investigates the influence of yield-to-tensile strength ratio (Y∕T) on failure pressure of pipelines without and with corrosion defects. Based on deformation instability and finite strain theory, a plastic collapse model for end-capped defect-free pipes is developed. The stress-strain response of materials is characterized by a power-law hardening curve, and the plastic deformation obeys the von Mises yield criterion and the deformation theory of plasticity. Two formulas to estimate the strain hardening exponent n for a specific Y∕T are obtained, and a closed-form solution to the limit pressure of pipes is derived as a function of Y∕T. This plastic collapse model is then extended to predict the failure pressure of pipelines with corrosion defects. Numerical and experimental comparisons are presented that validate the present models which characterize the influence of Y∕T on the failure behavior of pipeline.
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Liu, Jin, Yin Burgess, Christine DiStefano, Fan Pan, and Ning Jiang. "Validating the Pediatric Symptoms Checklist–17 in the Preschool Environment." Journal of Psychoeducational Assessment 38, no. 4 (February 15, 2019): 460–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0734282919828234.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
In the Response to Intervention framework, a psychometrically sound screening tool is essential for identification of children with emotional and behavioral risk. The purpose of this study was to examine the validity of the Pediatric Symptom Checklist–17 (PSC-17) screener in school-based settings. Forty-four teachers rated 738 preschoolers using the PSC-17; children were later assessed using long forms of the Behavior Assessment System for Children (BASC-2) Preschool form or the Achenbach System of Empirically Based Assessment (ASEBA) Caregiver–Teacher Report Form to identify emotional and behavioral disorder. Validity evidence including examinations of a multilevel factor structure, internal consistency, and criterion-related validity supported the conclusion that the PSC-17 is a high-quality universal screening tool in school-based settings. Finally, to identify emotional and behavioral risk with young children, receiver operating characteristic curve analyses with the PSC-17 yielded a lower cutoff score (i.e., 7) than the original cutoff score (i.e., 15) based on a clinical sample.
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Gorelik, V. A., and T. V. Zolotova. "Using Statistical Estimates in the Game with Nature as an Investment Model." Statistics and Economics 17, no. 6 (December 29, 2020): 64–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2020-6-64-72.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Purpose of the study. The aim of the research is to develop new principles of decision making (principles of optimality) in games with nature and their application to analyze statistical data and choose strategies for stock investment.Materials and methods. We analyze Russian and foreign bibliography on the research problem. A model of decision making in a game with nature with known state probabilities is proposed. The mathematical expectation of the player's payoff is taken as an assessment of efficiency, and the standard deviation or variance is taken as a risk assessment. This two-criterion task is formalized by transferring the efficiency assessment into a constraint. As a result, for the case of mixed strategies, a nonlinear (quadratic) task of mathematical programming arises. To solve it, an approach based on the Lagrange function and the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker optimality conditions is used. As an application of the methods obtained, the problems of stock investment are considered.Results. Analytical methods for solving the indicated optimization problem and an algorithm for finding optimal mixed strategies are obtained. Practical examples of application of the proposed approach on real statistical data are given. As the initial data in this study, we used stock quotes of Russian companies in the electric power industry for the period from 01.07.2020 to 01.10.2020, taken from the website of the FINAM Investment Company. The developed method allows one to find the optimal strategy and the corresponding values of profitability and risk based on only the initial data (statistical characteristics of financial instruments and the threshold value of profitability), i.e. provides, in our opinion, a convenient analysis tool for the investor.Conclusion. The concept of the principle of optimality in decision making problems under conditions of incomplete information is very ambiguous. The decision maker should be able to choose from a range of decision making models that reflect the dependence of the type of rational behavior on the available information and the attitude to risk. The paper proposes a model of this type for the case of probabilistic uncertainty, which leads to the problem of minimizing variance as a risk assessment with a lower bound on the mathematical expectation as an assessment of efficiency.
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Zholdakova, Zoya I., S. M. Yudin, O. O. Sinitsyna, O. V. Budarina, and N. S. Dodina. "PERSPECTIVES OF ORGANIZATIONAL-LEGAL AND METHODOLOGICAL MEASURES IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY MANAGEMENT." Hygiene and sanitation 97, no. 11 (November 15, 2018): 1026–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.18821/0016-9900-2018-97-11-1026-31.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Environmental quality management requires the compliance with a number of conditions, such as the use of criteria for the reliable assessment of the health effects of harmful environmental factors (eg., hygienic standards, risk indices) and the optimization of factors of the laboratory control, including chemicals. The A.N. Sysin Research Institute of Human Ecology and Environmental Health (now part of the Federal State Budgetary Institution “Centre for Strategic Planning and Management of Biomedical Health Risks”) of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation has corrected domestic hygienic standards of chemicals in the water of water bodies in accordance with international recommendations, and standards of substances in ambient air - according to time characteristics and MPC values. Unified standards in water for substances belonging to the same structural class and not differing in the mechanism of action are justified, hygienic standards for a mixture of substances in atmospheric air have been established according to the criterion “obsession of the smell”. The developing methods of predicting the toxicity of substances make it possible to improve the planning of experiments in selecting doses and indices of the state of the organism. On more than 50 territories of the Russian Federation, a health risk assessment under the influence of chemical environmental factors was implemented. At the same time, an adequate assessment and control of environmental pollution are hindered by a number of circumstances, first of all, the lack of an optimal monitoring system and imperfection of its organization. Studies have shown the number of control indices from a few units to several tens, while hundreds of components that are not provided with regulations are identified. This is due to the lack of modern equipment and analytical methods. The solution to the problem lies in the systematic application of the methodology for selecting priority indices for monitoring. At the same time, an attempt to replace the assessment of the hazard of substances’ harmful effects on the body using generalized indices, for example, a unified “interagency index”, is untenable. The developed recommendations are aimed at improving the organization and methodology of environmental quality management.
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Berthelsen, Hanne, Tuija Muhonen, Gunnar Bergström, Hugo Westerlund, and Maureen F. Dollard. "Benchmarks for Evidence-Based Risk Assessment with the Swedish Version of the 4-Item Psychosocial Safety Climate Scale." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 22 (November 22, 2020): 8675. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17228675.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The purpose of the present study was to validate the short version of The Psychosocial Safety Climate questionnaire (PSC-4, Dollard, 2019) and to establish benchmarks indicating risk levels for use in Sweden. Cross-sectional data from (1) a random sample of employees in Sweden aged 25–65 years (n = 2847) and (2) a convenience sample of non-managerial employees from 94 workplaces (n = 3066) were analyzed. Benchmarks for three PSC risk levels were developed using organizational compliance with Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) regulations as criterion. The results support the validity and usefulness of the Swedish PSC-4 as an instrument to indicate good, fair, and poor OSH practices. The recommended benchmark for indicating good OSH practices is an average score of >12.0, while the proposed cutoff for poor OSH practices is a score of ≤8.0 on the PSC-4. Scores between these benchmarks indicate fair OSH practices. Furthermore, aggregated data on PSC-4 supported its reliability as a workplace level construct and its association with quantitative demands, quality of leadership, commitment to the workplace, work engagement, job satisfaction, as well as stress and burnout. Thus, the Swedish version of PSC-4 can be regarded as a valid and reliable measure for both research and practical use for risk assessment at workplaces.
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Ridao-Fernández, Carmen, Elena Pinero-Pinto, and Gema Chamorro-Moriana. "Observational Gait Assessment Scales in Patients with Walking Disorders: Systematic Review." BioMed Research International 2019 (October 31, 2019): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/2085039.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Objective. To compile and analyze the characteristics and methodological quality of observational gait assessment scales validated to date. Methods. PubMed, Scopus, the Cochrane Library, Physiotherapy Evidence Database, Web of Science, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Dialnet, Spanish Medical Index, and Nursing, Physiotherapy, and Podiatry databases were searched up to August 2019. The main inclusion criteria were validated tools based on a conceptual framework developed to evaluate gait, validation design studies of observational scales in their entirety, and articles written in English or Spanish. Evaluators extracted descriptive information of the scales and the metric properties of the studies, which were further analyzed with Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) and COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement Instruments (COSMIN checklist). Results. Eighteen articles based on 14 scales were included. The populations were neurological patients (72.22%), musculoskeletal disorders (11.11%), and other areas such as vestibular disorders (11.11%). The most addressed items were orthopedic aids (64.29%); phases of the gait cycle and kinematics of the leg and trunk (57.14% each one); and spatial and temporal parameters (50%). All studies analyzed criterion validity, and five included content or structural validity (27.78%). Fifteen articles considered reliability (83.33%). Regarding the seven-item scale QUADAS-2, five studies obtained six results on “low” risk of bias or “low” concerns regarding applicability. Nine articles obtained at least a “fair” result on COSMIN checklist. Conclusions. A necessary compilation of the observational gait assessment scales validated to date was conducted. Besides, their characteristics and methodological quality were analyzed. Most scales were applied in neurological signs. The most approached topics were orthopedic aids, phases of the gait cycle, and kinematics of the leg and trunk. The scale that demonstrated a higher methodological quality was Visual Gait Assessment Scale, followed by CHAGS, Salford Gait Tool, and Edinburgh Visual Gait Score.
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Smith, Allan H., and Dan S. Sharp. "A Standardized Benchmark Approach To the Use of Cancer Epidemiology Data for Risk Assessment." Toxicology and Industrial Health 1, no. 4 (October 1985): 205–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/074823378500100413.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Clarity and scientific validity are two criteria for assessing the quality of communications between scientists and risk managers. Regulating permissible exposures on the basis of very-low-dose risk extrapolation uses scientific information that may not meet either criterion. With regard to clarity, it is difficult for an individual to conceive of the meaning of risks on the order of 1 in 1,000,000 lifetime excess. With regard to scientific validity, the uncertainties of extrapolating risks at very low doses are evident in the wide variation in results produced depending on the statistical and pharmacokinetic assumptions made. An alternative approach is to fix benchmarks from which safety factors are chosen (Gaylor, 1983). For epidemiological data, we propose a benchmark of that exposure which would cause 1% cancer excess with 10 yr of exposurefollowed by 30 yr of further followup. These values have been chosen at this stage of development since they are close to observable values in many cancer epidemiology studies. In the first stage, excess cancer risk versus duration of exposure is plotted and the excess risk is estimated for a exposure duration of 10 yr. The next step involves a short linear extrapolation from the exposure levels linked with this excess risk to the exposure levels that would cause a 1% excess risk over a duration of 10 yr. We have established preliminary benchmarks from published data for benzene and radon daughter exposure. Permissible exposure levels might then be set by deciding on safety factors. Although low-dose extrapolation will aid in selecting a safety factor for carcinogenic exposures, it should be acknowledged that the actual risk at the permissible level is not known. The risk might be zero, it might be between zero and a linear extrapolation value, or it might possibly be a little higher than the value from a linear projection (Gaylor and Kodell, 1980; Gaylor, 1983).
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Shirobokova, M. A., and A. V. Letchikov. "APPLICATION OF MACHINE LEARNING METHODS TO THE CALCULATION OF BANK'S RETURN ON EQUITY UNDER A LOAN AGREEMENT." Bulletin of Udmurt University. Series Economics and Law 30, no. 2 (April 23, 2020): 230–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.35634/2412-9593-2020-30-2-230-235.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The requirements for a more accurate assessment of the individual risk of a borrower became more complicated with the introduction of Basel II and IFRS 9. Such risk assessment is more and more often carried out using the construction of scoring models, however, as a rule, the Gini coefficient acts as a quality criterion for the constructed models, and the influence of modeling on financial component, namely on the return on equity, which acts as the basis for doing business in the field of lending, is not investigated at all. In this regard, the article proposes a methodology for assessing the return on equity without taking into account risk and its complication by taking into account the individual risk of a borrower. The construction of a dynamic model for assessing credit risk in the article is considered on the basis of survival models constructed by machine learning methods. The problem of accounting for censored data is solved using specific construction of variables for the model and methods that take into account censorship: logistic regression, Cox proportional risk model, random survival forest model. On the example of the data of a regional commercial bank, the return on equity is estimated and compared, depending on the choice of a risk assessment model. The result of the study is the conclusion that it is necessary to apply the methodology for calculating the return on equity taking into account risk assessed by the machine learning method.
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Michelsen, Brigitte, Joseph Sexton, Josef S. Smolen, Daniel Aletaha, Niels Steen Krogh, Désirée van der Heijde, Tore K. Kvien, and Merete Lund Hetland. "Can disease activity in patients with psoriatic arthritis be adequately assessed by a modified Disease Activity index for PSoriatic Arthritis (DAPSA) based on 28 joints?" Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases 77, no. 12 (September 20, 2018): 1736–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/annrheumdis-2018-213463.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
ObjectiveTo test the psychometric performance of a modified Disease Activity index for PSoriatic Arthritis (DAPSA) using 28 instead of 66 swollen/68 tender joint counts (SJC/TJC).MethodsWe included patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA) from the Danish national quality registry DANBIO, divided into examination (n=3157 patients, 23987 visits) and validation cohorts (n=3154 patients, 24160 visits). We defined DAPSA28 = (28TJC × conversion factor1) + (28SJC × conversion factor2) + patient global (0–10VAS) + pain (0–10VAS) + C reactive protein (CRP) (mg/dL). Identification of the conversion factors was performed by generalised estimating equations in the examination cohort and evaluation of criterion, correlational and construct validity in the validation cohort.ResultsWe estimated DAPSA28 = (28TJC × 1.6) + (28SJC × 1.6) + patient global (0–10VAS) + pain (0–10VAS) + CRP (mg/dL). Criterion validity: DAPSA/DAPSA28 had comparable discriminative power expressed as standardised mean difference (DAPSA, 0.90; DAPSA28, 0.93) to distinguish between patients in high and low disease activity. Kappa with quadratic weighting of DAPSA/DAPSA28 disease activity states was high: 0.92 (95% CI 0.92 to 0.92). Standardised response means for DAPSA/DAPSA28 were –0.96/–0.92 for visits after biological DMARD-initiation. Correlational validity: Baseline DAPSA/DAPSA28 had high correlation with 28-joint disease activity score with CRP (r=0.87/r=0.93), simplified disease activity index (r=0.92/r=0.99), p<0.001. Bland-Altman plot showed better agreement between DAPSA/DAPSA28 for low than high disease activity. Construct validity: DAPSA/DAPSA28 were similarly correlated to Health Assessment Questionnaire; r=0.60/0.62, p<0.001. DAPSA/DAPSA28 discriminated patients reporting their symptom state as acceptable versus not acceptable equally well: mean (SD) 9.1 (8.7)/8.4 (8.0) and 24.2 (14.9)/22.5 (13.8), respectively.ConclusionOur study suggests that data sets with only 28-joint counts available can be used to calculate DAPSA28, especially in patients with low disease activity. DAPSA28 showed good criterion, correlational and construct validity and sensitivity to change. Still, our results support that 66/68 joint count should be performed and the original DAPSA should be preferred in PsA.