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1
Xu, Bin, Tao Zhang, Feng Qi Wu, and Zhen Rong Yan. "Fatigue Life Assessment of a Ship Unloader Crane." Advanced Materials Research 945-949 (June 2014): 1086–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.945-949.1086.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Ship unloader crane was widely used in transportation, and uploaded or unloaded cargoes from ships, which could influence efficiency and benefits of transportation greatly. In order to improve the reliability and safety, and decrease its risk in working flow, a method of fatigue life assessment was proposed in this paper. According to related standards and properties of risk, finite element method and experimental stress analysis were integrated to assess the working condition of a ship unloader crane. Finite element models of primary structures subjected to loads were built to achieve dynamic properties, which could supply a basic reference to experiment and guidance to locate the tested positions. Afterwards, wireless dynamic resistance strain-gauges were adopted to execute static and dynamic stress, and the tested results combined with finite element analysis were applied to strength analysis. Based on nominal stress and Miner principle, rainflow method was developed to fatigue life assessment of this ship unloader crane. The final results indicated that residual life of this crane was 4.67 years.
2
Shkola, V. Y., O. V. Prokopenko, and V. A. Omelianenko. "Transformation of the Emergency Risk Management Methodology Based on the Conception of Sustainable Innovation Proactivity: The Global and Local Dimensions." Business Inform 9, no. 524 (2021): 13–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2021-9-13-21.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The article is aimed at improving fundamental methodological approaches to the system of emergency risk management on the basis of the conception of sustainable innovation proactivity, which will allow to prevent and respond in a timely manner to various kinds of destructive phenomena, will contribute to ensuring/increasing the stability and security of economic systems in the face of modern global challenges and threats (both actual and potential). As result of the research, the essence of the main categories of risk management theory is deepened; the influence of various types of global risks in dynamics is analyzed (in the short, medium and long term); the extant approaches to risk management are generalized and systematized; the authors’ own structure of the risk management process is proposed. The methodology for determining the status of economic system, a methodical approach to comprehensive risk assessment based on the theory of sustainability and the theory of complex systems are improved; the principle of integrated risk assessment based on an integrated approach to the assessment of challenges and threats through the synergy of economic, diplomatic, human, international, legal, political, and cultural dimensions of security is determined. Prospect for further research is the development of a theoretical-methodical approach to the choice of strategies and instruments to counter the challenges and threats in Ukraine under unstable socio-economic conditions, taking into account changes in the security environment and in the potential of national economies.
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Al Sharif, Reem, and Shaligram Pokharel. "Risk Analysis with the Dempster–Shafer Theory for Smart City Planning: The Case of Qatar." Electronics 10, no. 24 (December 10, 2021): 3080. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/electronics10243080.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Smart cities support the enhancement of the quality of life of their residents, for which the use of a robust integrated platform of information and communication technology is required. However, not all cities have similar technology infrastructure and a similar understanding of the quality of life. Therefore, holistic planning, resource support, security, continuous updates, and dynamic operational enhancements should be considered while planning smart cities. However, a smart city could be vulnerable to security threats and a loss of personal or classified information due to the complexity of technology integration. Therefore, understanding and assessing different risks and embedding risk management mechanisms would be required to minimize vulnerability exposure in smart cities. This paper proposes a risk assessment method using the Dempster–Shafer theory for smart city planning. The Dempster–Shafer theory is used here to analyze the risks perceptions of experts. The principal component analysis method is used to analyze the data obtained from risk assessment. The application of this method is determined through a smart city test case in Qatar.
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Bezrukova, Galina A., Mikhail V. Pozdnyakov, and Tamara A. Novikova. "The use of digital technologies in social and hygienic monitoring of the health status of workers in harmful working conditions." Hygiene and sanitation 100, no. 10 (October 31, 2021): 1157–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.47470/0016-9900-2021-100-10-1157-1162.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Introduction. To increase the effectiveness of social and hygienic monitoring of the health status of workers in harmful and/or dangerous occupation conditions by objectifying the analysis of the health status of workers and timely detection of premorbid forms of pathology, an informational medical advisory and diagnostic system is proposed that ensures the efficiency of using the previously developed methodological recommendations MR 2.2.9.0148-19 “Assessment of the risk of developing states of distress in workers in harmful working conditions”. Materials and methods. The design of the developed computer program is based on the principles of critical assessment of the employee’s health status; multiparametric characteristics of the functional reserves of the body; unity of the information base; the possibility of dynamic monitoring of the health status of employees; automation of data storage and analysis; protection of personal data. Results. The method used by the information system is based on a comprehensive assessment of the functional reserves of the body, correlated by the degree of adaptive stress, including the ranking of the employee health status according to the group of dispensary records, the indicator of adaptive compliance and the level of adaptive immunity. To facilitate the operator’s information support system integrated the List of harmful and (or) hazardous occupation factors, the presence of which is a mandatory preliminary and periodic medical examinations (surveys) and reference weight values, heart rate and blood pressure corresponding to the physiological norm concerning gender and age of the employee. Conclusion. The proposed information system can be used during periodic medical examinations to form risk groups for the development of occupational and production-related morbidity, as well as to assess the effectiveness of hygienic and therapeutic and preventive measures aimed at improving the health of workers in harmful occupation conditions.
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Shuvaiev, A. A. "Organizational and Functional Structure of the System of Information and Analytical Management of Construction Waste Streams." Science and Transport Progress. Bulletin of Dnipropetrovsk National University of Railway Transport, no. 4(94) (August 17, 2021): 69–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.15802/stp2021/245674.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Purpose. The main purpose of the work is to define and substantiate the principles, functional requirements and objectives of the implementation of information and analytical support for the management of waste streams of construction and wracking as secondary resources; development of the organizational and functional structure of the information-analytical management system, which would satisfy the conditions for the introduction of a logistical approach within the framework of integrated management of construction waste streams and became the basis for creating a single information platform. Methodology. As a methodological basis for the research of the process of managing the secondary resources streams and reversible streams in the construction industry, a logistic approach is used. It involves the analysis of factors influencing the system and study of its dynamic behavior as a complex adaptive system. The system approach in the development of information-analytical management systems involves solving the following tasks: development of a functional model of the management system of construction and wracking waste streams; construction of interaction matrices of automated processes and data routing processes; modeling the logical architecture of the data warehouses; development of a software and hardware set. Findings. The main tasks of developing information support for the logistics management system of construction and wracking waste streams are substantiated. The integration into the system of the following functional blocks is proposed: database formation; block for estimating the total economic costs of the process; environmental damage assessment blocks; information risk assessment; evaluation of alternative methods of waste stream management; optimal route formation block; visualization block. Based on the generalization of requirements and possibilities of the functionality analyzed information-analytical systems and requirements which would provide efficiency of construction waste streams management, the organizational-functional structure of the system of information-analytical management is proposed. Originality. The work gives reasons for the inclusion in the list of functional blocks of the organizational and functional structure of the information-analytical management system, which should be the basis for creating an information platform for the management of construction and wracking waste streams, environmental and information risk assessment. Practical value. Implementation within the information-analytical management of environmental damage assessment (as part of the efficiency assessment of the construction waste streams) and information risk assessment (as a tool of logistical approach) will provide the ability to predict key system indicators, make optimal decisions aimed at maximum inclusion of construction waste streams in the system as a potential secondary raw material, a sufficient level of economic and environmental efficiency with the optimal level of logistics costs.
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Marhany, Khaled. "An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach andApplication to Dynamic PositioningSystem." Port-Said Engineering Research Journal 19, no. 1 (March 1, 2015): 82–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.21608/pserj.2015.36754.
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Labeau, P. E., C. Smidts, and S. Swaminathan. "Dynamic reliability: towards an integrated platform for probabilistic risk assessment." Reliability Engineering & System Safety 68, no. 3 (June 2000): 219–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0951-8320(00)00017-x.
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Jame, Y. W., and H. W. Cutforth. "Crop growth models for decision support systems." Canadian Journal of Plant Science 76, no. 1 (January 1, 1996): 9–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.4141/cjps96-003.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Studies on crop production are traditionally carried out by using conventional experience-based agronomic research, in which crop production functions were derived from statistical analysis without referring to the underlying biological or physical principles involved. The weaknesses and disadvantages of this approach and the need for greater in-depth analysis have long been recognized. Recently, application of the knowledge-based systems approach to agricultural management has been gaining popularity because of our expanding knowledge of processes that are involved in the growth of plants, coupled with the availability of inexpensive and powerful computers. The systems approach makes use of dynamic simulation models of crop growth and of cropping systems. In the most satisfactory crop growth models, current knowledge of plant growth and development from various disciplines, such as crop physiology, agrometeorology, soil science and agronomy, is integrated in a consistent, quantitative and process-oriented manner. After proper validation, the models are used to predict crop responses to different environments that are either the result of global change or induced by agricultural management and to test alternative crop management options.Computerized decision support systems for field-level crop management are now available. The decision support systems for agrotechnology transfer (DSSAT) allows users to combine the technical knowledge contained in crop growth models with economic considerations and environmental impact evaluations to facilitate economic analysis and risk assessment of farming enterprises. Thus, DSSAT is a valuable tool to aid the development of a viable and sustainable agricultural industry. The development and validation of crop models can improve our understanding of the underlying processes, pinpoint where our understanding is inadequate, and, hence, support strategic agricultural research. The knowledge-based systems approach offers great potential to expand our ability to make good agricultural management decisions, not only for the current climatic variability, but for the anticipated climatic changes of the future. Key words: Simulation, crop growth, development, management strategy
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Adedigba, Sunday A., Faisal Khan, and Ming Yang. "An integrated approach for dynamic economic risk assessment of process systems." Process Safety and Environmental Protection 116 (May 2018): 312–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.psep.2018.01.013.
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Panasenko, Nataliia, Olha Myrna, and Alla Svitlychna. "Integrated assessment of the corruption level in the world." Economic Annals-ХХI 191, no. 7-8(1) (August 10, 2021): 4–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.21003/ea.v191-01.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The methodology of assessing the level of corruptibility of the society occupies an important place in the strategic programs of anti-corruption activities. The obtained rating indicators reflect the dynamics of corruption in the country, and the change of the state’s position in the ranking show the efficiency of anti-corruption policy. Since the data of obtained ratings differ significantly, the urgent scientific problem is to combine them in a single integral assessment. The authors have developed a methodology of integral assessment of the level of corruption in the country and evaluated the influence of different social and economic factors on it. Integral assessment was carried out on the basis of initial indicators Corruption Perception Index, Index of Economic Freedom, World Government Indicator, Doing Business, Political Risk Services International Country Risk Guide. We have used the method of modified principal component to determine gross coefficients of the above indicators in the integral assessment. The following indicators were found to have a significant impact on the level of corruption: human development index, education index, GDP per capita, coefficient of human inequality, employment to population ratio, unemployment. A multi-factor model has been developed that makes it possible to evaluate the efficiency of anti-corruption measures taken.
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Baek, W. K., R. I. Stephens, and B. Dopker. "Integrated Computational Durability Analysis." Journal of Engineering for Industry 115, no. 4 (November 1, 1993): 492–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/1.2901795.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
A computer aided analysis method is described for durability assessment in the early design stages using multibody dynamic analysis, finite element stress analysis, and fatigue life prediction methods. From multibody dynamic analysis of a mechanical system, dynamic loads of a mechanical component were calculated. Finite element stress analysis with substructuring techniques produced accurate stress fields for the component. From the dynamic loads and the stress field of the component, a dynamic stress history at the critical location was produced using the superposition principle. Using Neuber’s rule, a local strain time history was produced from the dynamic stress history. The local strain based fatigue life prediction method was then used to predict “crack initiation” life of the critical component. The predicted fatigue crack initiation life was verified by experimental durability tests. This methodology can be combined with identification of weak links and optimization techniques such that the design optimization for an entire mechanical system based upon durability is possible during the early product development stage.
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Velev, D., and P. Zlateva. "INFORMATION SYSTEM FRAMEWORK FOR INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT FROM NATURAL DISASTERS." ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences XLII-3/W4 (March 6, 2018): 535–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-xlii-3-w4-535-2018.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> In recent years around the world, and in particular in Bulgaria, there is a reported increase in the number and intensity of disasters caused by natural phenomena. An increase is observed in the adverse effects of disasters on social relations, economic growth and sustainable development of the country. The purpose of the paper is to propose a general framework of information system for integrated risk assessment from natural disasters with the help of modern information and communication technologies. Innovative and classical techniques (quantitative and qualitative approaches, deterministic and stochastic methods, intelligent methods as fuzzy logic and neural networks, etc.) are applied in the overall process of the risk assessment (IEC/ISO 31010:2009): risk identification (identification of single and multiple natural disasters), risk analysis (determination of the disaster probability/intensity; interdependence of multiple disasters; exposure; object vulnerabilities; social, ecological and economical consequences) and risk evaluation. The information system is designed on the principle of modules which implement interaction with geographical information system (GIS) and heterogeneous databases containing information about the monitored objects and potential natural disasters in Bulgaria. The information system will use cloud computing and online network for exchange of heterogeneous databases and expertise for the risks from natural disasters. The proposed information system could successfully assist all stakeholders about risk assessment of the monitored objects before, during or after the occurrence of natural disasters. This system could be considered as a unified platform for interdisciplinary research concerning natural disasters.</p>
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Sydelko, Pamela J., Ihor Hlohowskyj, Kimbery Majerus, John Christiansen, and Jayne Dolph. "An object-oriented framework for dynamic ecosystem modeling: application for integrated risk assessment." Science of The Total Environment 274, no. 1-3 (July 2001): 271–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0048-9697(01)00748-3.
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Liu, Ming Qiong, Hui Ying Gao, and Chun Yan Zhao. "Research on Flood Integrated Risk Dynamic Management Framework for Coastal Cities." Applied Mechanics and Materials 501-504 (January 2014): 2138–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.501-504.2138.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
From the point of flood integrated risk analysis and risk dynamic management, analysis and discussion the reason of flood disasters occur frequently. Flood risk management is divided into six types: flood risk, flood control project risk, flood investment risk, flood plain risk, flood eco-environment risk and flood control decision risk management. Furthermore, a risk assessment model was established, and this paper puts forward four targets of flood risk management, eventually forming flood risk management flow, which provides a framework for flood integrated risk analysis and risk management.
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Zhao, Jun, Juliang Jin, Xiaomin Zhang, and Yaqian Chen. "Dynamic risk assessment model for water quality on projection pursuit cluster." Hydrology Research 43, no. 6 (March 16, 2012): 798–807. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/nh.2012.095.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
With the aim of reducing the losses from water pollution, a dynamic risk assessment model for water quality is studied in this paper. This model is built on the projection pursuit cluster principle and risk indexes in the complex system, proceeding from the whole structure and its component parts. In this paper, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is used to screen out index system and determine index weight, while the further value of an index is simulated by hydrological model. The proposed model adopts the comprehensive dynamic evaluation method to analyze the time dimension data, and evaluates the development tendency by combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis. The projection pursuit theory is also employed for clustering the spatial dimension data, the optimal projection vector for calculating risk cluster type to compartmentalize risk, and then local conditions for proposing the regulation scheme. The applicational results show that the model has the strong logic superiority and regional adaptability with strict theoretical system, flexible methods, correct and reasonable results and simple implementation to provide a new way for research on risk assessment models of water quality.
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Vaitkevicius, Sigitas, Vilija Alekneviciene, Laura Girdziute, and Astrida Miceikiene. "Integrated Risk Assessment: Case Study of Lithuanian Family Farms." Engineering Economics 30, no. 4 (October 30, 2019): 402–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.30.4.23502.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This study is designed to develop the tool for risk assessment under the integrated approach. Analyzing risk several problems are encountered: the first one arises at the farm level – assessment of risk in the whole-farm context rather than in a partial context, i.e. an integrated risk assessment tool is necessary. The second problem is related to the dynamic aspect when determining how the risk changes over time and what the main drivers of these changes are. All these problems are solved in the presented research, creating an integrated risk assessment index (IRAI) and testing it in Lithuanian family farms. This index assesses four types of risk: economic, financial, production, and political. The research methodology is developed to make sure that the data collected on the IRAI behavior is as diverse as possible. A model of IRAI variation by farm size illustrating risk evolution at the Lithuanian farms and, at the same time, enabling visual diversification of the dependence of integrated risk on farm size is developed. Hierarchical cluster analysis is applied for identification of the integrated risk evolution models. Assessment of the interaction between the IRAIand output and input using nonparametric Kruskal-Wallis testis used to find out whether the type of integrated risk is based on differential logic. IRAI was tested using official statistical data of 1300 family farms collected in 2004–2013 for institutional purposes. The testing revealed that the designed IRAI allows identifying types of farms by their risk evolvement profiles and the key risk (s) acting on the farm in the historical period. Four meaningful clusters representing the changing pattern of the risk are identified during the testing of IRAI: increasing risk farms; reducing risk farms; relatively constant risk farms; varying risk farms. IRAI can be applied both for macro analysis (at a national, EU or other levels) and microanalysis (at the level of a single farm).
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Alexander, Bob, Linda J. Cox, and Junko Mochizuki. "Integrated risk identification, analysis, and assessment: A dynamic household economy analysis methodology and example." International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 4, no. 2 (June 2013): 77–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13753-013-0009-7.
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Hu, Yan, Jing-ya Wen, Xiao-li Li, Da-zhou Wang, and Yu Li. "A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach for contaminated sites management." Journal of Hazardous Materials 261 (October 2013): 522–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2013.08.009.
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Smith, Valerie, Declan Devane, and Jo Murphy-Lawless. "Risk in Maternity Care: A Concept Analysis." International Journal of Childbirth 2, no. 2 (2012): 126–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1891/2156-5287.2.2.126.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
AIM: To analyze the concept of risk in maternity care.DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE (1966–2010), CINAHL (1980–2010), EMBASE (1980–2010), PsycINFO (1980–2010), and Social Science Citation Index were searched. Key text books were sourced. Media literature was reviewed by perusal of newspaper articles, health supplements, and popular Internet health care websites.REVIEW METHODS: The principle-based method of concept analysis was used to guide the analysis of risk in maternity care.RESULTS: The epistemological principle identified the ambiguous nature of the risk concept, with risk having diverse meanings for different individuals. The pragmatic principle demonstrated that the current systematic approach to risk assessment often fails to identify those who succumb to risk issues. The linguistic principle portrays the ambiguity of risk perception with “risk” considered according to past experiences, knowledge, and individual attitudes. The logical principle identified a strong link between safety and uncertainty revealing that the risk concept lacks integrity and may not “hold its own.”CONCLUSION: The concept of risk in maternity care is concerned with risk assessment, risk perception, and notions of safety and uncertainty. Risk in maternity care is diverse and dynamic. What constitutes as a risk today may not necessarily be viewed in the same light tomorrow.
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Simonenko, S. I., and L. A. Sokolov. "Online Human Risk Assessment at the Industrial Plants." Occupational Safety in Industry, no. 3 (March 2021): 81–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.24000/0409-2961-2021-3-81-87.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Risks of the employee unsafe behavior associated with their abilities and personal qualities are considered. The methodology is presented in the article concerning the risk assessment of unsafe behavior using online assessment by knowledge tests, ability tests and a professional personality questionnaire Deep Safety developed by Detech. The results of the employee online assessment are presented. The analysis of the criterion sample showed that the level of abilities and the level of expression of safety competencies affects both the number of cases of unsafe behavior and the overall results of work. A positive correlation was also found between the level of verbal intelligence and the propensity for safe behavior. Four safety competencies have the greatest correlation with the actual severity of safe behavior — they are law-abiding (following the rules), adherence to principles (intolerance to violations), responsibility, non-conflict. The first three of them have a positive correlation, while employees who are examples of safe behavior demonstrate a higher level of conflict. This can be explained by the fact that when they encounter violations or unsafe behavior, they openly point out this, suppress violations not being afraid to go to confrontation in the interests of ensuring safety. Online assessment is a fast and cost effective way of assessment, and, moreover, easily integrates with the professional tests and other assessment tools. We recommend that such an assessment be carried out in labor collectives with an interval of 1.5–2 years, which makes it possible to track the dynamics of indicators. One more advantage of this assessment system is that it allows not only to identify those who are prone to unsafe behavior, but to form the best strategy for interaction with the employee, to recruit labor collectives, in which, for example, the low law-abidingness of some employees would be compensated for by the high integrity of the manager and team-mates.
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Patra, Prashant Kumar, and Padma Lochan Pradhan. "An Integrated RFOS Model for Risk Assessment on Real Time Operating System." International Journal of Strategic Information Technology and Applications 5, no. 2 (April 2014): 27–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijsita.2014040103.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The preventive control is the one of the best and well advanced control in all aspects of day to day life. The prevention afforded to an automated system control system in order to attain the highest applicable objectives of preserving the confidentiality, integrity and high availability of information system resources (including hardware, system software, firmware, processor, memory and data).The risk assessment is the process of identifying vulnerabilities and threats to operating system resources to achieving highest business objectives and deciding what counter measures to take in reducing the lowest level of risk. The proposed RFOS model and mechanism provides accountability for individuals who are accessing sensitive information on application, system software, server and network. This accountability is accomplished through access control mechanisms that require Confidentiality, Integrity, Authentication, Access control, Non repudiation, Availability and Privacy through operating system audit function. We have to develop the dynamic RFOS model for risk optimization process on operating system. This paper contributes to the development of an optimization mechanism that aims to determine the optimal cost to be invested into security model and mechanisms deciding on the measure component of operating system resources (i.e. Processor, Memory, File System, Kernel). Furthermore, this algebraic model and mechanism optimize the cost, time and resources is supposed to optimize the system risks. The control is inversely proportional to the risk and control is directly proportional to the standard. In this research paper, we are proposing integrated, hierarchical and dynamic way of Relation, Function, Operation and Services Model for optimizing the risk on the real time operating system. Preventive Control is inversely proportional to the Risk and directly proportional to the Quality.
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Solovjova, Natalia V. "Synthesis of dynamic and eco-screening approaches in modeling for ecological risk assessment." Hydrosphere Еcology (Экология гидросферы), no. 1(3) (2019): 68–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.33624/2587-9367-2019-1(3)-68-81.
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The paper proposes a method of mathematical modeling and assessment of ecological risk for marine ecological systems under the combined action of natural, anthropogenic and climatic factors. The method is based on the use of observational data, dynamic models of ecosystem state and probabilistic ecoscreening risk assessments. The main idea and novelty of the method is to take into account the annual variations of ecological risk and substantiates the primacy of determining the magnitude of the allowable risk of ecological systems, and then the allowable intensity of anthropogenic impact. Calculations using the proposed method makes it possible to get answers to questions about the principle of the admissibility of accidents of certain scales. The use of the proposed method for specific ecosystems will help to harmonize ecological and economic requirements to ensure the ecological safety of the development of shelf resources.
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Islam, Monzurul, Khan Wahid, and Anh Dinh. "Assessment of Ripening Degree of Avocado by Electrical Impedance Spectroscopy and Support Vector Machine." Journal of Food Quality 2018 (November 1, 2018): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2018/4706147.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Avocado, a climacteric fruit, exerts high rate of respiration and ethylene production and thereby subject to ripening during storage. Therefore, its ripening is a significant factor to impart optimum quality in postharvest storage. To understand the dynamics of ripening and to assess the degree of ripening in the avocado, electrical sensing technique is utilized in this study. In particular, electrical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) is found to uncover the physiological and structural characteristics in plants and vegetables and to follow physiological progressions due to environmental impacts. In this work, we present an approach that will integrate EIS and machine learning technique that allows us to monitor the ripening degree of the avocado. It is evident from our study that the impedance absolute magnitude of the avocado gradually decreases as the ripening stages (firm, breaking, ripe, and overripe) proceed at a particular frequency. In addition, principal component analysis shows that impedance magnitude (two principal components combined explain 99.95% variation) has better discrimination capabilities for ripening degrees compared to impedance phase angle, impedance real part, and impedance imaginary part. Our classifier utilizes two principal component features over 100 EIS responses and demonstrates classification over firm, breaking, ripe, and overripe stages with an accuracy of 90%, precision of 93%, recall of 90%, f1-score of 90%, and auc of 88%. The study offers plant scientists a low cost and nondestructive approach to monitor postharvest ripening process for quality control during storage.
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Ibánez, L., J. Hortal, C. Queral, J. Gómez-Magán, M. Sánchez-Perea, I. Fernández, E. Meléndez, et al. "Application of the Integrated Safety Assessment methodology to safety margins. Dynamic Event Trees, Damage Domains and Risk Assessment." Reliability Engineering & System Safety 147 (March 2016): 170–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2015.05.016.
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Bernatik, Ales, David Rehak, Valerio Cozzani, Pavel Foltin, Jarmil Valasek, and Frantisek Paulus. "Integrated Environmental Risk Assessment of Major Accidents in the Transport of Hazardous Substances." Sustainability 13, no. 21 (October 29, 2021): 11993. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su132111993.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
At present, the environmental risk assessment of major accidents is mainly carried out for stationary risk sources. Only marginal attention is paid to mobile risk sources, while the currently available methodologies require a relevant expertise and time for their application, which is only partially possible in most scenarios. In the present study, an integrated approach to environmental risk assessment in the transport of hazardous substances (iTRANSRISK) was developed. The approach proposed is based on the principle of index-based assessment of leakage scenarios involving toxic and flammable substances during transport, in the context of indexing environmental vulnerability. The key point of the method is the conversion of local-specific data concerning the risk potential of the transported substance, the consequences and the probability of a major accident, and environmental vulnerability assessment into a single entity. The created integral approach is proposed for the needs of carriers of the hazardous substances and the state administration bodies. The proposed approach is determined for the screening risk assessment at the beginning of the process of the planning a suitable transport routes and the results are for information only. An example of the application of the iTRANSRISK integrated approach is demonstrated considering an explosion scenario following a propane tanker leak (18 t) in a forested area, with moderately susceptible soils and no surface water or groundwater affected.
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Jin, Shangzhu, Jike Ge, and Jun Peng. "A New Fuzzy Rule Interpolation Approach to Terrorism Risk Assessment." International Journal of Software Science and Computational Intelligence 9, no. 3 (July 2017): 16–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijssci.2017070102.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Terrorist attacks launched by extremist groups or individuals have caused catastrophic consequences worldwide. Terrorism risk assessment therefore plays a crucial role in national and international security. Fuzzy reasoning based terrorism risk assessment systems offer a significant potential of providing decision support in combating terrorism, where highly complex situations may be involved. Nevertheless, little has been done in developing and applying an integrated hierarchical bidirectional (forward/backward) fuzzy rule interpolation mechanism that is tailored to suit decision support for terrorism risk assessment. This paper presents such an integrated approach that is capable of dealing with dynamic and insufficient information in the risk assessing process. In particular, the hierarchical system implementing the proposed techniques can predict the likelihood of terrorism attacks on different segments of focused attention. The results of an experimental investigation of this implemented system are represented, demonstrating the potential and efficacy of the proposed approach.
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Mas, Erick, Daniel Felsenstein, Luis Moya, A. Yair Grinberger, Rubel Das, and Shunichi Koshimura. "Dynamic Integrated Model for Disaster Management and Socioeconomic Analysis (DIM2SEA)." Journal of Disaster Research 13, no. 7 (December 1, 2018): 1257–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2018.p1257.
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The DIM2SEA research project aims to increase urban resilience to large-scale disasters. We are engaged in developing a prototype Dynamic Integrated Model for Disaster Management and Socioeconomic Analysis (DIM2SEA) that will give disaster officials, stakeholders, urban engineers and planners an analytic tool for mitigating some of the worst excesses of catastrophic events. This is achieved by harnessing state-of-the-art developments in damage assessment, spatial simulation modeling, and Geographic Information System (GIS). At the heart of DIM2SEA is an agent-based model combined with post-disaster damage assessment and socioeconomic impact models. The large amounts of simulated spatial and temporal data generated by the agent-based models are fused with the socioeconomic profiles of the target population to generate a multidimensional database of inherently “synthetic” big data. Progress in the following areas is reported here: (1) Synthetic population generation from census tract data into agent profiling and spatial allocation, (2) developing scenarios of building damage due to earthquakes and tsunamis, (3) building debris scattering estimation and road network disruption, (4) logistics regarding post-disaster relief distribution, (5) the labor market in post-disaster urban dynamics, and (6) household insurance behavior as a reflection of urban resilience.
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Xu, Wenpei, and Ting-Kwei Wang. "Dynamic safety prewarning mechanism of human–machine–environment using computer vision." Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management 27, no. 8 (July 16, 2020): 1813–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ecam-12-2019-0732.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
PurposeThis study provides a safety prewarning mechanism, which includes a comprehensive risk assessment model and a safety prewarning system. The comprehensive risk assessment model is capable of assessing nine safety indicators, which can be categorised into workers’ behaviour, environment and machine-related safety indicators, and the model is embedded in the safety prewarning system. The safety prewarning system can automatically extract safety information from surveillance cameras based on computer vision, assess risks based on the embedded comprehensive risk assessment model, categorise risks into five levels and provide timely suggestions.Design/methodology/approachFirstly, the comprehensive risk assessment model is constructed by adopting grey multihierarchical analysis method. The method combines the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the grey clustering evaluation in the grey theory. Expert knowledge, obtained through the questionnaire approach, contributes to set weights of risk indicators and evaluate risks. Secondly, a safety prewarning system is developed, including data acquisition layer, data processing layer and prewarning layer. Computer vision is applied in the system to automatically extract real-time safety information from the surveillance cameras. The safety information is then processed through the comprehensive risk assessment model and categorized into five risk levels. A case study is presented to verify the proposed mechanism.FindingsThrough a case study, the result shows that the proposed mechanism is capable of analyzing integrated human-machine-environment risk, timely categorising risks into five risk levels and providing potential suggestions.Originality/valueThe comprehensive risk assessment model is capable of assessing nine risk indicators, identifying three types of entities, workers, environment and machine on the construction site, presenting the integrated risk based on nine indicators. The proposed mechanism, which adopts expert knowledge through Building Information Modeling (BIM) safety simulation and extracts safety information based on computer vision, can perform a dynamic real-time risk analysis, categorize risks into five risk levels and provide potential suggestions to corresponding risk owners. The proposed mechanism can allow the project manager to take timely actions.
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Mainzer, Klaus. "Technology Foresight and Sustainable Innovation Development in the Complex Dynamical Systems View." Foresight and STI Governance 14, no. 4 (December 15, 2020): 10–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.17323/2500-2597.2020.4.10.19.
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Information and communication technologies (ICT) which are transforming most areas develop non-linearly. Failure to take into account the nonlinear principles of complex dynamic systems hinders development of balanced innovation strategies. Companies and governments lose the ability to effectively respond to “grand challenges”. The linear approach does not allow covering a wide range of critical areas simultaneously in the scope of Foresight projects, prevents from applying an interdisciplinary approach to developing innovation strategies, correct risks assessment, and making informed decisions. The paper proposes a solution: management based on “cyber-physical systems” (CPS) built on dynamic complexity and nonlinearity principles. Such systems not only integrate computing and physical action but are embedded in everyday environment; they are more than the sum of multiple intelligent computing devices. CPS transforms into collective social systems, integrate information, energy, and material flows, and adapt to physical processes. Cyber-physical systems can offer a sustainable information infrastructure which serves as a prerequisite for building up the innovation potential of a company, region, or country. They make it possible to analyse all stages of an innovation project from the technical and organisational points of view simultaneously, cover all possible social consequences and challenges, and identify unexpected promising developments. CPS have a decentralised structure which allows to solve complex problems and manage large and complex structures in real time, such as an energy grid, transport, smart city, healthcare, etc.
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Liu, Xiao Hua, Mei Han, Xiao Hui Lin, and Neng Pu Yang. "Quantitative Safety Assessment Based on Risk in Level-Crossing between Railway and Highway." Applied Mechanics and Materials 536-537 (April 2014): 854–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.536-537.854.
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In this paper, a portable integrated ship monitoring command system is designed to meet the needs of automatic maritime security working, remote monitoring and commanding ship, while adapting the harsh working environment. The propose ship monitoring command system has merits of ease of installation, highly-integrated features, easy-to-use, and so on. Application of Beidou Navigation Satellite System's high precision positioning and SMS(Short Messaging Service) communication technology in integrated ship monitoring command system can well solve the problem of ship navigation and positioning, remote monitoring and commanding. In our system, ECDIS( Electronic Chart Display and Information System) is chosen as the display platform, HF(High frequency), VHF(Very high frequency) and Beidou is chosen as the communicational measure, Beidou and GPS is chosen as the positioning measure. With the help of the above measures, the static and dynamic data of ship, real-time voice and text are transported to realize the function of ship positioning, ship navigation, remote monitoring and commanding.
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Luo, Fu Zhou, Yan Zhou, and Jing Yu Shang. "A Study on Public Construction Project Duration Risk Identification and Evaluation." Applied Mechanics and Materials 457-458 (October 2013): 1593–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.457-458.1593.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
According to the Intricate Dynamic Relationship of the Duration Management System，the Paper Identified Risk Factors for the Object.Then Established a Comprehensive Integrated Public Construction Project Duration Risk Assessment Model with the Application of Game Theory-Based Weighting Method. the Model is Validated Effective and Reasonable through Simulation Analysis. and it also Provides a New way of Thinking in the Duration Risk Assessment.
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Gain, Animesh K., and Carlo Giupponi. "A dynamic assessment of water scarcity risk in the Lower Brahmaputra River Basin: An integrated approach." Ecological Indicators 48 (January 2015): 120–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.07.034.
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Ko, Changjun, Hodong Lee, Kyeongsu Kim, and Won Bo Lee. "Quantitative risk assessment integrated with dynamic process simulation for reactor section in heavy oil desulfurization process." Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 66 (July 2020): 104158. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2020.104158.
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Cao, Yan, Congshan Wang, Yunfei Mu, Hongjie Jia, Kai Yuan, and Yi Song. "Risk assessment of park-level integrated energy system considering uncertainty and dynamic correlation of energy prices." Energy Reports 7 (November 2021): 451–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2021.08.019.
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Liu, Si Ping. "Simulation Research on Dynamic Security Model of Information System in Cloud Computing Environment." Applied Mechanics and Materials 602-605 (August 2014): 3285–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.602-605.3285.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Cloud computing can dynamically allocate the software or hardware resource and information resource in accordance with the needs of different computer users, so as to expand the virtual resources of computer, but data information exists a big security risk in the process of data parallel calculation or the data sharing, so it needs to carry out the risk assessment on the security of signal. In cloud computing, this paper introduces the second-order difference quotient calculation principle in the model of information risk assessment that has accelerated the speed of information risk assessment, and adopts second order linear security authentication model that has strengthened the security of the cloud computing. In order to verify the validity and reliability of the model, this paper uses C program language to design the algorithm and inspects the cloud data with possible existing risk, and then it obtains the deviation curve of numerical calculation and theoretical value, which provides the technical reference for the research of cloud information security technology.
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Fernandes, Rodrigo, Filipe Lourenço, Frank Braunschweig, and Ramiro Neves. "Dynamic Risk Assessment of Shoreline Contamination from Ships: Integrating an Oil Spill Model." International Oil Spill Conference Proceedings 2014, no. 1 (May 1, 2014): 299678. http://dx.doi.org/10.7901/2169-3358-2014-1-299678.1.
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Latest scientific and technological developments on coastal monitoring and operational oceanography have provided the opportunity of building complex and integrative decision support systems for coastal risk management. An innovative methodology to dynamically produce quantified risks has been developed, integrating numerical metocean forecasts and oil spill simulations with the existing monitoring tools. The risk rating combines the likelihood of an oil spill occurring from a vessel navigating in the study area with the assessed consequences to the shoreline. The spill likelihood is based on dynamic marine weather conditions and statistical information from previous accidents. The shoreline consequences reflect the associated oil amount reaching shoreline and the environmental and socio-economic vulnerabilities. The oil reaching shoreline is quantified with an oil spill fate and behavior model. Shoreline risk is variable in time, based on variable vessel positions (from AIS) and metocean conditions (from operational numerical models). The simultaneous calculation of the risk posed by each vessel crossing a study area is integrated, allowing the generation of a dynamic shoreline risk map for the study area. Shoreline risks can be computed in real time or from previous obtained data. The whole system has been implemented in real time on the Portuguese and Galician Coast. Since several ships cross this area, optimization was performed to allow running the oil spill model for multiple virtual spills from ships along time. The integrated oil spill model uses MOHID lagrangian particle tracking system, where all major transport and weathering processes are considered, including full 3D movement of oil particles, wave-induced currents, and a novel implementation of oil-shoreline interaction. The relevance of integrating the oil spill model in the risk algorithm is evaluated. To perform this, risk levels are compared considering the impact of virtual spilled oil reaching shoreline based on oil spill model simulations, or simply considering the vessel shoreline proximity as impact factor. The integration of an oil spill model in the shoreline risk levels, combined with adequate metocean modeling forecasts, allow a more realistic approach in the assessment of shoreline impacts, which can become even more important in case of regions with greater variability in marine weather conditions. The risk assessment from historic data can help finding typical risk patterns, “hot spots” or developing sensitivity analysis to specific conditions, whereas real time risk levels can be used in the prioritization of individual ships, geographical areas, strategic tug positioning and implementation of dynamic risk-based vessel traffic monitoring.
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Bai, Xia, Yimin Wang, Juliang Jin, Xiaoming Qi, and Chengguo Wu. "Precondition Cloud and Maximum Entropy Principle Coupling Model-Based Approach for the Comprehensive Assessment of Drought Risk." Sustainability 10, no. 9 (September 10, 2018): 3236. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10093236.
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As a frequently occurring natural disaster, drought will cause great damage to agricultural production and the sustainable development of a social economy, and it is vital to reasonably evaluate the comprehensive risk level of drought for constructing regional drought-resistant strategies. Therefore, to objectively expound the uncertainty of a drought risk system, the precondition cloud and maximum entropy principle coupling model (PCMEP) for drought risk assessment is proposed, which utilizes the principle of maximum entropy to estimate the probability distribution of cloud drops, and the two-dimensional precondition cloud algorithm to determine the certainty degree of drought risk. Moreover, the established PCMEP model is further applied in a drought risk assessment study in Kunming city covering 1956–2011, and the results indicate that (1) the probability of drought events for different levels exhibits a slight increasing trend among the 56 historical years; and (2) both the integrated certainty degree and its component of drought risk are more evident, which will be more beneficial to determine the drought risk level. In general, the proposed PCMEP model provides a new reliable idea to evaluate the comprehensive risk level of drought from a more objective and systematic perspective.
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Zhang, Huafeng, and Quanxin Sun. "An Integrated Approach to Risk Assessment for Special Line Shunting Via Fuzzy Theory." Symmetry 10, no. 11 (November 6, 2018): 599. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/sym10110599.
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Railway special line shunting safety is a complicated systemic topic, which is full of uncertainty and dynamic; safety is determined by numerous aspects, including human, management, environmental, and equipment factors. Many railway risk assessment techniques currently used are comparatively mature tools. However, in many circumstances, the application of these tools gives unsatisfactory results because the risk data are incomplete or involve high levels of uncertainty. Because risk assessment technology has its own applicability that it may not suitable for the three sub-processes of risk assessment, it is difficult to obtain ideal effects by using a single tool in the risk assessment process. This paper presents an integrated approach for conducting special-line shunting risk assessment, using fishbone diagram analysis, fuzzy reasoning approaches, and a fuzzy analytical hierarchy tool, which can evaluate both qualitative and quantitative risk data efficiently and effectively. The outcomes of risk assessment are represented as risk degrees and risk levels, providing railway safety risk managers and engineers with tools to improve their safety management standards. A case study is used to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results reveal that the proposed model can effectively and efficiently assess risks associated with a special-line shunting system, yielding more reliable and realistic solutions.
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González-Riancho, P., I. Aguirre-Ayerbe, O. García-Aguilar, R. Medina, M. González, I. Aniel-Quiroga, O. Q. Gutiérrez, J. A. Álvarez-Gómez, J. Larreynaga, and F. Gavidia. "Integrated tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment: application to the coastal area of El Salvador." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions 1, no. 3 (June 26, 2013): 2883–943. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-2883-2013.
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Abstract. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas. This paper presents a methodological framework for the integrated tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment. It deals with the complexity and variability of coastal zones by means of (i) an integral approach to cover the entire risk related process, from the hazard, vulnerability and risk assessments to the final risk management; (ii) an integrated approach to combine and aggregate the information stemming from the different dimensions; and (iii) a dynamic and scale dependant approach to integrate the spatiotemporal variability considerations. This framework aims at establishing a clear connection to translate the vulnerability and risk assessment results into adequate target-oriented risk reduction measures, bridging the gap between science and management for the tsunami hazard. The framework is applicable to other types of hazards, having been successfully applied to climate change hazard.
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González-Riancho, P., I. Aguirre-Ayerbe, O. García-Aguilar, R. Medina, M. González, I. Aniel-Quiroga, O. Q. Gutiérrez, J. A. Álvarez-Gómez, J. Larreynaga, and F. Gavidia. "Integrated tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment: application to the coastal area of El Salvador." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 14, no. 5 (May 22, 2014): 1223–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1223-2014.
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Abstract. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow for the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas. This paper presents a tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment for the case study of El Salvador, the applied methodology dealing with the complexity and variability of coastal zones by means of (i) an integral approach to cover the entire risk-related process from the hazard, vulnerability and risk assessments to the final risk management; (ii) an integrated approach to combine and aggregate the information stemming from the different dimensions of coupled human and natural systems; and (iii) a dynamic and scale-dependent approach to integrate the spatiotemporal variability considerations. This work also aims at establishing a clear connection to translate the vulnerability and risk assessment results into adequate target-oriented risk reduction measures, trying to bridge the gap between science and management for the tsunami hazard. The approach is applicable to other types of hazards, having been successfully applied to climate-change-related flooding hazard.
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Alam, MD Jahedul, and Muhammad Ahsanul Habib. "Vulnerability Assessment during Mass Evacuation: Integrated Microsimulation-Based Evacuation Modeling Approach." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2673, no. 10 (May 15, 2019): 225–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0361198119848409.
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This study develops an integrated microsimulation-based evacuation model that performs a vulnerability assessment of the Halifax Peninsula, Canada during an evacuation. The proposed framework of vulnerability assessment accounts for long-term changes in neighborhood composition in relation to socio-demographic characteristics, residential locations, and vehicle ownership. The results of a large-scale urban systems model and a flood risk model are used to inform the vulnerability assessment. The urban systems model encapsulates long-term household decisions and life stage transitions in measuring social vulnerability. The flood risk model provides information on flood severity and finer network disruptions. In addition, a dynamic traffic assignment-based microsimulation model is developed to assess mobility vulnerability during an evacuation. One of the key contributions of this study is that it utilizes a Bayesian Belief Network modeling approach for vulnerability assessment, while addressing uncertainty and causal relationships between different elements of vulnerability. The results suggest that the Peninsula zones are at a relatively higher risk from a mobility point of view. A sensitivity analysis reveals that clearance time has been found to be the key determinant of the mobility vulnerability during an evacuation. “Presence of female” and “presence of seniors” are found as the two most significant contributors of social vulnerability. Several peripheral zones are at a higher risk because of their proximity to the flood source. The proposed research will help emergency professionals and engineers to develop effective evacuation plans in relation to vulnerable areas.
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Chiew, Ling Sie, Shahabuddin Amerudin, and Zainab Mohamed Yusof. "AN OVERVIEW OF AGENT-BASED MODELLING APPROACHES FOR INTEGRATED FLOOD MANAGEMENT." Journal of Information System and Technology Management 6, no. 24 (December 1, 2021): 290–300. http://dx.doi.org/10.35631/jistm.624027.
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Previously, Integrated Flood Management (IFM) system has been implemented by several hydrological researchers in order to minimize the global flood risk by providing a convincing flood risk assessment and management, as well as sustainable adaptation and disaster alleviation policy. Flood risk is dynamic interaction between natural disasters and human vulnerability. Basically, methods for quantifying flood risk are fully-fledged but tend to treat artificial and economic vulnerabilities as static or subject to changes in external trends. However, interpretive research is rarely conducted to investigate people’s decision-making and acknowledge to flood warnings during flood event. The integration of Agent-Based Model (ABM) in simulating the interactions and dynamic responses of individual or organizations in a spatial environment during the flood events or prior to the events were reviewed. The ABM model is defined as a computational method used to simulate the behaviour and the interaction of autonomous decision-making entities in a network or system it is used to evaluate their impact on the entire system. Therefore, the ABM approach has been chosen to emulate the complexity of the IFM process due to its capability and flexibility to simulate the dynamic of human-environment scenarios in the spatial environment.
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Elbogen, Eric B., and Matthew T. Huss. "The Role of Serotonin in Violence and Schizophrenia: Implications for Risk Assessment." Journal of Psychiatry & Law 28, no. 1 (March 2000): 19–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/009318530002800103.
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This article examines dynamic biological factors associated with violence and schizophrenia to help explain inconsistent findings in the empirical literature on risk assessment. In particular, the role of serotonin in both violence and schizophrenia is reviewed and integrated. Although serotonin does seem implicated in violence, its connection with violence in schizophrenic populations has not been established. Findings from serotonin studies suggest several factors that might influence a relationship between violence and schizophrenia, including different serotonin subtypes, the type and severity of violent behavior, the type of comparison group studied, the context of the study, interactions between neurotransmitter systems, and the individual's level of psychosis.
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Yu, Hua. "Dynamic effective pressure coefficient calibration." GEOPHYSICS 80, no. 1 (January 1, 2015): D65—D73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1190/geo2013-0437.1.
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Pore pressure prediction provides an important risk assessment in the oil and gas industry. Most predrill pore-pressure prediction methods from seismic and/or well-log sonic velocities are based on the effective stress principle, which relates velocity variation to the combined effect of overburden stress and pore pressure. In the current practice of pore pressure prediction, the effective stress coefficient [Formula: see text] is often assumed as unity, which is not always the case, especially when sediments are deeply buried and consolidated. To understand the variation of [Formula: see text] with depth, I analyzed density and velocity trends from more than 100 Gulf of Mexico wells near the Louisiana continental shelf edge. In the study area, overpressure zones are present in most wells and compaction disequilibrium is the dominant overpressure mechanism. Normal compaction trends for velocity and density were built. The overburden pressure model was refined by taking into account that the density gradient approaches zero at the onset depth of overpressure. Based on the effective pressure principle, values for [Formula: see text] in the overpressure intervals were estimated in the study area. The average [Formula: see text] values varied from 0.6 to 0.9 inclusive of errors associated with assuming the gradient of mud weight and pore pressure is the same.
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Zhu, Wen Feng, Yuan Zeng, Chao Qin, Xiao Fei Li, and De Wei Liu. "Transient Operation Risk Assessment of Power System with Wind Farm Integration Based on Dynamic Security Region." Advanced Materials Research 1092-1093 (March 2015): 122–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.1092-1093.122.
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With continuous expansion of the grid, the power system structure is becoming more complicated, leading to more and more uncertainty of the system. Especially, the massive integration of wind power and other renewable energy to the grid brings more challenges. In this paper, by taking use of DSR (dynamic security region) and risk assessment theory, it proposed the transient risk index calculation and integrated analysis method for wind power integration system, which was able to give quantitative indicators of the system day-ahead scheduling plan. The efficiency and practicality of theories mentioned herein were verified by standard numerical examples.
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Soloviev, V. P., and T. A. Pereskokova. "Employees’ process and risk-oriented thinking." Russian Journal of Industrial Economics 13, no. 2 (July 2, 2020): 206–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.17073/2072-1633-2020-2-206-217.
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The authors of the article explore the problem of introducing process and risk-oriented thinking in national organizations. In 2000 the International Organization for Standartization, ISO, announced process approach as the basis principle of management in any organization. It became the embodiment of Deming’s postulate who recommended to consider any activity as a technological process. The authors show the practicability of transition from the functional structure of an organization to integrated process. New ISO 9000:2015 standards reflect presentday challenges and require that organizations should carry out risk assessment and accounting. One of the key objectives of the quality management system is to act as the prevention tool. Preventive action lies in using riskoriented thinking in formulating requirements to the quality management system. The authors introduce the system analysis method in risk management to reveal potential risks and plan preventive action.
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Безденежных, В. М., Л. Х. Боташева, and Д. Ф. Ализада. "Methodology for risk assessment of agribusiness enterprises: content and algorithm of implementation for modeling purposes." Voprosy regionalnoj ekonomiki, no. 2(43) (June 17, 2020): 236–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.21499/2078-4023-2020-43-2-236-245.
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В статье исследуются методики оценки рисков аграрного сектора экономики на основе вероятностных моделей, учитывающих особенности самих рисков и размеры потерь сельскохозяйственной продукции. Показано, что два различных по своей сути методических подхода (принципа пропорции Парето и критерий оптимальности Парето) моделирования могут хорошо дополнять друг друга, создавая статическую картину события и динамический ряд ее изменений. The article explores methods of assessing risks of the agricultural sector of the economy on the basis of probabilistic models, taking into account the peculiarities of risks themselves and the size of losses of agricultural products. It is two different methodological approaches (the Pareto proportion principle and the Pareto optimality criterion) of modeling as complement each other, creating a static picture of the event and a dynamic series of its changes.
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Zhou, Lin, Wei Hu, Zhen Jia, Xinfang Li, Yaru Li, Tianyun Su, and Qingsheng Guo. "Integrated Visualization Approach for Real-Time and Dynamic Assessment of Storm Surge Disasters for China’s Seas." ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 9, no. 1 (January 15, 2020): 51. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijgi9010051.
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For improved prevention and reduction of marine disasters, China’s marine authorities and emergency response agencies require a solution that provides risk assessment, early warning, and decision-making support. This paper proposes a comprehensive approach to disaster assessment that involves automated long-term operation, a spatial information visualization method and systematic integration. The proposed approach provides functions for numerical ocean models with forecast results, automated processing of massive data, multiple disaster/element coupled assessment, and multidimensional display and expression. With regard to storm surge disasters, the approach proposed in this paper adopts a four-tier structure and the functions of each tier are described separately. The original data are comprised of a combination of statistical analysis data and real-time data obtained from the unstructured grid Finite Volume Community Ocean Model. Automated data processing methods and assessment theories incorporating an indicator system and weighted parameters are used for the assessment. By applying 2D/3D visualization technology, assessment results are displayed via several modes for ease of operation and comprehension. The validity of the approach was verified by applying it to Typhoon Hato (No. 1713). Compared with the results of the post-disaster investigation, the assessment results of the proposed approach proved the reliability of the system.
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Li, Xinhong, Yi Zhang, Rouzbeh Abbassi, Ming Yang, Renren Zhang, and Guoming Chen. "Dynamic probability assessment of urban natural gas pipeline accidents considering integrated external activities." Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 69 (March 2021): 104388. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2020.104388.
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Li, Xupu, Shuangshuang Li, Yufeng Zhang, Patrick J. O’Connor, Liwei Zhang, and Junping Yan. "Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment under Multiple Indicators." Land 10, no. 7 (July 14, 2021): 739. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/land10070739.
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Rapid urbanization and intensification of human activities increases the risk of disturbance of ecological systems via multiple sources, with consequences for regional ecological security and health. Landscape ecological risk assessment (LERA) is an effective way to identify and allocate risk to resources. We used the north and south Qinling Mountain area as a case study to analyze the spatial heterogeneity of landscape ecological risk using a potential- connectedness-resilience three-dimensional (PCR 3D) framework based on an integrated and dynamic risk assessment concept from adaptive cycle theory. We explored factors driving the risks with a spatial model GeoDetector. The results show that the comprehensive landscape ecological risk was north–south polarized and dominated by low and moderate risk levels (90.13% of total risk) across the whole study area. The high-risk area was centered on the Weihe plain north of the Qinling Mountains (NQL), while low-risk areas accounted for 86.87% of the total area and were prevalent across the south of the study area. The areas with high potential and connectedness risks were centered in the Xi’an–Xianyang urban agglomeration and those with high-resilience risk were in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River. The vast majority of the area to the south of the Qinling Mountains (SQL) is at low risk. In terms of driving forces, population density and vegetation coverage (NDVI) are the primary factors affecting landscape ecological risk. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic activity is the primary cause of landscape ecological risks in the study area and regional socioeconomic exploitation and environmental conservation need to be rebalanced to achieve sustainability for the social ecosystem. The PCR 3D LERA framework employed in this study can be used to inform landscape ecological health and security and to optimize socioeconomic progress at regional scales.