Дисертації: "Predictive simulation model"

1

Shah, Nirali. "Simulation of Model Predictive Control using Dynamic Matrix Control algorithm." Thesis, California State University, Long Beach, 2015. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=1604872.

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Model Predictive Control has emerged as a very powerful technology in the area of process control for three decades. The objective of this work was to develop Dynamic Matrix Control Algorithm, one of the most widely used Model Predictive Control Algorithms using MATLAB and simulate it for a real world Single Input Single Output system. This thesis focuses on the impacts and importance of the tuning parameters of Dynamic Matrix Control along with an overview of the general Model Predictive Control strategy. The tuning of the Dynamic Matrix Controller was done by trial and error based on the knowledge of the simulated system under consideration and the control strategy. The Control Signal computed was then implemented on the system to study its effect on the system output using a discrete transfer function model. The results of the tuned controller were observed to be similar to the other tuning methods discussed in the literature.

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2

Wei, Zhouping, University of Western Sydney, and of Mechatronic Computer and Electrical Engineering School. "Model predictive control of a robot using neural networks." THESIS_XXX_MCEE_Wei_Z.xml, 1999. http://handle.uws.edu.au:8081/1959.7/323.

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The aim of the thesis is to develop a model-based control strategy, namely, the Model Predictive Control (MPC) method, for robot position control using artificial neural networks. MPC is primarily developed for process control. Therefore its application in robot control has been less reported. In addition, conventional MPC uses linear model of the system for prediction which leads to inaccuracy for highly non-linear systems, such as robot. In this thesis a simulation model of a modified PUMA robot is constructed. This model is built using both MATLAB/SIMULINK and FORTRAN languages. In this model, the full robot dynamics is used together with the realistic factors, such as the actuator effects and the gear backlash, to represent the real system accurately. All simulations throughout this thesis are carried out on this model. A model predictive control strategy for robot trajectory tracking is also introduced in this thesis. The feasibility of the proposed MPC control method is studied based on a perfect prediction model, a model with uncertainties, and when the frequency band of the MPC controller is limited. Furthermore, a new method of using neural networks for robot dynamics modelling is introduced. This method is developed on the basis of a numerical differential technique that eliminates the explicit requirement of robot joint accelerations. Therefore, this method can be easily implemented on physical systems. As the measurements of the robot joint positions, velocities, and torques collected from operating the robot can be used to train the neural network, a more accurate dynamic model can be obtained. Finally, the MPC control method and the neural network model are combined together to form a neural network based MPC controller. The validity of this method is verified by using simulation on the simulated robot system
Master of Engineering (Hons)

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3

Riley, Matthew E. "Quantification of Model-Form, Predictive, and Parametric Uncertainties in Simulation-Based Design." Wright State University / OhioLINK, 2011. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=wright1314895435.

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4

Silva, Marco Jorge Tome da. "Simulation of human motion data using short-horizon model-predictive control." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/43041.

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Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 2008.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 52-56).
Many data-driven animation techniques are capable of producing high quality motions of human characters. Few techniques, however, are capable of generating motions that are consistent with physically simulated environments. Physically simulated characters, in contrast, are automatically consistent with the environment, but their motions are often unnatural because they are difficult to control. We present a model-predictive controller that yields natural motions by guiding simulated humans toward real motion data. During simulation, the predictive component of the controller solves a quadratic program to compute the forces for a short window of time into the future. These forces are then applied by a low-gain proportional-derivative component, which makes minor adjustments until the next planning cycle. The controller is fast enough for interactive systems such as games and training simulations. It requires no precomputation and little manual tuning. The controller is resilient to mismatches between the character dynamics and the input motion, which allows it to track motion capture data even where the real dynamics are not known precisely. The same principled formulation can generate natural walks, runs, and jumps in a number of different physically simulated surroundings.
by Marco da Silva.
S.M.

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5

Toschi, Alessandro. "Integration of Model Predictive Control for autonomous racing." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2022.

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Autonomous driving is one of the technologies that could impact significantly society in the next decades. While various advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) have already been introduced in commercial passenger vehicles, the technology for fully self- driving cars is not yet ready. The Indy Autonomous Challenge is a competition between universities and research centers, born to advance the technology in this field by com- peting in autonomous racecar events. The IAC seeks to increase public awareness of the transformational impact that automation can have on society and solve edge-case scenarios unlikely to happen in an urban scenario but with the need of be addressed to ensure safety. The focus of this thesis is on the integration of the controller, a model predictive control (MPC), used in two of these challenges. This class of control, based on a constrained op- timal control scheme, is usually used to cope with challenging situations and was suitable for handling an autonomous car at high speeds.

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6

Abdul-Jalal, Rifqi I. "Engine thermal management with model predictive control." Thesis, Loughborough University, 2016. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/24274.

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The global greenhouse gas CO2 emission from the transportation sector is very significant. To reduce this gas emission, EU has set an average target of not more than 95 CO2/km for new passenger cars by the year 2020. A great reduction is still required to achieve the CO2 emission target in 2020, and many different approaches are being considered. This thesis focuses on the thermal management of the engine as an area that promise significant improvement of fuel efficiency with relatively small changes. The review of the literature shows that thermal management can improve engine efficiency through the friction reduction, improved air-fuel mixing, reduced heat loss, increased engine volumetric efficiency, suppressed knock, reduce radiator fan speed and reduction of other toxic emissions such as CO, HC and NOx. Like heat loss and friction, most emissions can be reduced in high temperature condition, but this may lead to poor volumetric efficiency and make the engine more prone to knock. The temperature trade-off study is conducted in simulation using a GT-SUITE engine model coupled with the FE in-cylinder wall structure and cooling system. The result is a map of the best operating temperature over engine speed and load. To quantify the benefit of this map, eight driving styles from the legislative and research test cycles are being compared using an immediate application of the optimal temperature, and significant improvements are found for urban style driving, while operation at higher load (motorway style driving) shows only small efficiency gains. The fuel consumption saving predicted in the urban style of driving is more than 4%. This assess the chance of following the temperature set point over a cycle, the temperature reference is analysed for all eight types of drive cycles using autocorrelation, lag plot and power spectral density. The analysis consistently shows that the highest volatility is recorded in the Artemis Urban Drive Cycle: the autocorrelation disappears after only 5.4 seconds, while the power spectral density shows a drop off around 0.09Hz. This means fast control action is required to implement the optimal temperature before it changes again. Model Predictive Control (MPC) is an optimal controller with a receding horizon, and it is well known for its ability to handle multivariable control problems for linear systems with input and state limits. The MPC controller can anticipate future events and can take control actions accordingly, especially if disturbances are known in advance. The main difficulty when applying MPC to thermal management is the non-linearity caused by changes in flow rate. Manipulating both the water pump and valve improves the control authority, but it also amplifies the nonlinearity of the system. Common linearization approaches like Jacobian Linearization around one or several operating points are tested, by found to be only moderately successful. Instead, a novel approach is pursued using feedback linearization of the plant model. This uses an algebraic transformation of the plant inputs to turn the nonlinear systems dynamics into a fully or predominantly linear system. The MPC controller can work with the linear model, while the actual control inputs are found using an inverse transformation. The Feedback Linearization MPC of the cooling system model is implemented and testing using MathWork Simulink®. The process includes the model transformation approach, model fitting, the transformation of the constraints and the tuning of the MPC controller. The simulation shows good temperature tracking performance, and this demonstrates that a MPC controller with feedback linearization is a suitable approach to thermal management. The controller strategy is then validated in a test rig replicating an actual engine cooling system. The new MPC controller is again evaluated over the eight driving cycles. The average water pump speed is reduced by 9.1% compared to the conventional cooling system, while maintaining good temperature tracking. The controller performance further improves with future disturbance anticipation by 20.5% for the temperature tracking (calculated by RMSE), 6.8% reduction of the average water pump speed, 47.3% reduction of the average valve movement and 34.0% reduction of the average radiator fan speed.

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7

Vara-Cadillo, Gabriel. "Autonomous Car Overtake Using Model Predictive Control." Thesis, KTH, Skolan för elektroteknik och datavetenskap (EECS), 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-293818.

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Autonomous vehicles have in recent years grownin popularity. An autonomous car has the potential to safelymaneuver in an efficient manner. This in combination with thefocus on increased road safety has put higher emphasis onimplementing an overtaking controller. Model Predictive Control(MPC) is very useful because it can handle linear constraintsand works for autonomous driving. I implemented the controlsystem in Python and did tests on its overtake capability usingdifferent velocities, car distances and initial speeds. Constraintswere implemented so that the autonomous vehicle did not collidewith another vehicle or drive outside the road when overtaking.The results show that a safe overtake could be performed undercertain conditions. The MPC algorithm is proven useful butdifficult to optimize.
Autonoma fordon har lyckats locka till sig mer populäritet under de senaste åren. En autonom bil har möjligheten att manövrera på ett säkert och effektivt sätt. Detta i kombination med ett fokus att öka vägsäkerheten har lagt större press på att implementera reglersystem för omkörningar. Modell prediktiv reglering (MPC) är användbar för den kan hantera linjära bivillkor och fungerar till autonomon körning. Ett reglersystem är implementerat i Python och testades på sin omkörningförmåga med olika hastigheter, avstånd och begynnelse hastigheter. Implementationen utformades med bivillkor som att det autonoma fordonet inte ska krocka med ett annat fordon eller köra utanför vägen i en omkörning. Resultaten visar att det gick att köra om på ett säkert sätt med vissa förutsättningar. MPC algoritmen har visat sig användbar men svår att optimera.
Kandidatexjobb i elektroteknik 2020, KTH, Stockholm

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8

Sheth, Katha Janak. "Model predictive control for adaptive digital human modeling." Thesis, University of Iowa, 2010. https://ir.uiowa.edu/etd/884.

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We consider a new approach to digital human simulation, using Model Predictive Control (MPC). This approach permits a virtual human to react online to unanticipated disturbances that occur in the course of performing a task. In particular, we predict the motion of a virtual human in response to two different types of real world disturbances: impulsive and sustained. This stands in contrast to prior approaches where all such disturbances need to be known a priori and the optimal reactions must be computed off line. We validate this approach using a planar 3 degrees of freedom serial chain mechanism to imitate the human upper limb. The response of the virtual human upper limb to various inputs and external disturbances is determined by solving the Equations of Motion (EOM). The control input is determined by the MPC Controller using only the current and the desired states of the system. MPC replaces the closed loop optimization problem with an open loop optimization allowing the ease of implementation of control law. Results presented in this thesis show that the proposed controller can produce physically realistic adaptive simulations of a planar upper limb of digital human in presence of impulsive and sustained disturbances.

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9

Horii, M. Michael. "A Predictive Model for Multi-Band Optical Tracking System (MBOTS) Performance." International Foundation for Telemetering, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/579658.

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ITC/USA 2013 Conference Proceedings / The Forty-Ninth Annual International Telemetering Conference and Technical Exhibition / October 21-24, 2013 / Bally's Hotel & Convention Center, Las Vegas, NV
In the wake of sequestration, Test and Evaluation (T&E) groups across the U.S. are quickly learning to make do with less. For Department of Defense ranges and test facility bases in particular, the timing of sequestration could not be worse. Aging optical tracking systems are in dire need of replacement. What's more, the increasingly challenging missions of today require advanced technology, flexibility, and agility to support an ever-widening spectrum of scenarios, including short-range (0 − 5 km) imaging of launch events, long-range (50 km+) imaging of debris fields, directed energy testing, high-speed tracking, and look-down coverage of ground test scenarios, to name just a few. There is a pressing need for optical tracking systems that can be operated on a limited budget with minimal resources, staff, and maintenance, while simultaneously increasing throughput and data quality. Here we present a mathematical error model to predict system performance. We compare model predictions to site-acceptance test results collected from a pair of multi-band optical tracking systems (MBOTS) fielded at White Sands Missile Range. A radar serves as a point of reference to gauge system results. The calibration data and the triangulation solutions obtained during testing provide a characterization of system performance. The results suggest that the optical tracking system error model adequately predicts system performance, thereby supporting pre-mission analysis and conserving scarce resources for innovation and development of robust solutions. Along the way, we illustrate some methods of time-space-position information (TSPI) data analysis, define metrics for assessing system accuracy, and enumerate error sources impacting measurements. We conclude by describing technical challenges ahead and identifying a path forward.

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10

Zsolt, Pap Levente. "Model Predictive Control of Electric Drives -Design, Simulation and Implementation of PMSM Torque Control." Thesis, KTH, Skolan för elektroteknik och datavetenskap (EECS), 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-240365.

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The thesis deals with the design of a permanent magnet synchronous machine controller that isimplemented on an embedded platform to replace the off-the-shelf controller currently being used in theelectric race car of the KTH Formula Student team. Software implementation of the control algorithmwas tested in laboratory environment on the hardware prototype of a 2-level three-phase voltage sourceinverter.Field oriented control and finite control set model predictive control algorithms were implemented insimulation environment. The latter performed better in terms of reducing switching activity and torqueripple, but needs vastly more computational resources due to its nature of being an online optimizationproblem. Trade-off curve of phase current harmonic distortion and switching activity showed that themodel prediction control algorithm performs better in the low frequency range (1-20 kHz). Obtainedsimulation results were used for power electronics component selection.Field oriented control was implemented on a TMS320F28335 DSP. SPI communication was employedto configure gate driver circuits and perform error handling. The DSP program follows interrupt basedorganization and the main control loop runs on the variable frequency of the pulse width modulation.Low voltage test results on three-phase inductive-resistive load showed that the controller outputssinusoidal current. Efficiency measurement, high voltage and motor testing were hindered by interferencefrom the Silicon-Carbide MOSFETs that prohibited correct operation of hardware.
Den här uppsatsen handlar om designen och implementeringen av en motorstyrning för en permanen- magnetiserad synkronmotor, med syfte att ersätta standardmotorstyrningsenheten i KTH Formula Students tävlingsbil. Implementationen av styralgoritmen testades experimentellt tillsammans med en prototyptillverkad frekvensomriktare i labbmiljö. Regleralgoritmer för field oriented control och finite control set model predictive control implementerades och testades i simuleringsmiljö. Den senare algoritmen visade sig prestera bättre i form av lägre vridmomentsoscillationer trots lägre switch-frekvens men den kräver samtidigt mer beräkningskraft. Övertonsinnehållet (THD) i fasströmmarna som funktion av switchfrekvensen undersöktes för de båda regleralgoritmerna, algoritmen för model predictive control gav lägre THD vid lägre frekvenser (1-20 kHz). Simuleringsresultaten användes för att motivera valet av komponenter till frekvensomriktaren. Regleralgoritmen för field oriented control implementerades och testades experimentellt med hjälp av ett utvecklingskort (TMS320F28335) från Texas Instruments. SPI-kommunikation användes för att konfigurera drivkretsana samt för att utläsa felkoder. Experimentalla tester som utfördes på låg spänningsnivå visade att strömmen till lasten var sinusformad. Mätning av verkningsgrad och provning tillsammans med motorn på en högre spänningsnivå gick inte att geno av att de snabba switchförloppen i kiselkarbidtransistorerna störde ut motorstyrningen.

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11

Wei, Zhouping. "Model predictive control of a robot using neural networks." Thesis, View thesis, 1999. http://handle.uws.edu.au:8081/1959.7/323.

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The aim of the thesis is to develop a model-based control strategy, namely, the Model Predictive Control (MPC) method, for robot position control using artificial neural networks. MPC is primarily developed for process control. Therefore its application in robot control has been less reported. In addition, conventional MPC uses linear model of the system for prediction which leads to inaccuracy for highly non-linear systems, such as robot. In this thesis a simulation model of a modified PUMA robot is constructed. This model is built using both MATLAB/SIMULINK and FORTRAN languages. In this model, the full robot dynamics is used together with the realistic factors, such as the actuator effects and the gear backlash, to represent the real system accurately. All simulations throughout this thesis are carried out on this model. A model predictive control strategy for robot trajectory tracking is also introduced in this thesis. The feasibility of the proposed MPC control method is studied based on a perfect prediction model, a model with uncertainties, and when the frequency band of the MPC controller is limited. Furthermore, a new method of using neural networks for robot dynamics modelling is introduced. This method is developed on the basis of a numerical differential technique that eliminates the explicit requirement of robot joint accelerations. Therefore, this method can be easily implemented on physical systems. As the measurements of the robot joint positions, velocities, and torques collected from operating the robot can be used to train the neural network, a more accurate dynamic model can be obtained. Finally, the MPC control method and the neural network model are combined together to form a neural network based MPC controller. The validity of this method is verified by using simulation on the simulated robot system

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12

Khare, Neeraj Prasad. "Predictive Modeling of Metal-Catalyzed Polyolefin Processes." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/11065.

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This dissertation describes the essential modeling components and techniques for building comprehensive polymer process models for metal-catalyzed polyolefin processes. The significance of this work is that it presents a comprehensive approach to polymer process modeling applied to large-scale commercial processes. Most researchers focus only on polymerization mechanisms and reaction kinetics, and neglect physical properties and phase equilibrium. Both physical properties and phase equilibrium play key roles in the accuracy and robustness of a model. This work presents the fundamental principles and practical guidelines used to develop and validate both steady-state and dynamic simulation models for two large-scale commercial processes involving the Ziegler-Natta polymerization to produce high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and polypropylene (PP). It also provides a model for the solution polymerization of ethylene using a metallocene catalyst. Existing modeling efforts do not include physical properties or phase equilibrium in their calculations. These omissions undermine the accuracy and predictive power of the models. The forward chapters of the dissertation discuss the fundamental concepts we consider in polymer process modeling. These include physical and thermodynamic properties, phase equilibrium, and polymerization kinetics. The later chapters provide the modeling applications described above.
Ph. D.

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13

Sumer, Yalcin Faik. "Predictive Control of Multibody Systems for the Simulation of Maneuvering Rotorcraft." Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/6940.

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Simulation of maneuvers with multibody models of rotorcraft vehicles is an important research area due to its complexity. During the maneuvering flight, some important design limitations are encountered such as maximum loads and maximum turning rates near the proximity of the flight envelope. This increases the demand on high fidelity models in order to define appropriate controls to steer the model close to the desired trajectory while staying inside the boundaries. A framework based on the hierarchical decomposition of the problem is used for this study. The system should be capable of generating the track by itself based on the given criteria and also capable of piloting the model of the vehicle along this track. The generated track must be compatible with the dynamic characteristics of the vehicle. Defining the constraints for the maneuver is of crucial importance when the vehicle is operating close to its performance boundaries. In order to make the problem computationally feasible, two models of the same vehicle are used where the reduced model captures the coarse level flight dynamics, while the fine scale comprehensive model represents the plant. The problem is defined by introducing planning layer and control layer strategies. The planning layer stands for solving the optimal control problem for a specific maneuver of a reduced vehicle model. The control layer takes the resulting optimal trajectory as an optimal reference path, then tracks it by using a non-linear model predictive formulation and accordingly steers the multibody model. Reduced models for the planning and tracking layers are adapted by using neural network approach online to optimize the predictive capabilities of planner and tracker. Optimal neural network architecture is obtained to augment the reduced model in the best way. The methodology of adaptive learning rate is experimented with different strategies. Some useful training modes and algorithms are proposed for these type of applications. It is observed that the neural network increased the predictive capabilities of the reduced model in a robust way. The proposed framework is demonstrated on a maneuvering problem by studying an obstacle avoidance example with violent pull-up and pull-down.

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14

Lura, Derek James. "The Creation of a Robotics Based Human Upper Body Model for Predictive Simulation of Prostheses Performance." Scholar Commons, 2012. http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/4133.

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This work focuses on the use of 3D motion capture data to create and optimize a robotic human body model (RHBM) to predict the inverse kinematics of the upper body. The RHBM is a 25 degrees of freedom (DoFs) upper body model with subject specific kinematic parameters. The model was developed to predict the inverse kinematics of the upper body in the simulation of a virtual person, including persons with functional limitations such as a transradial or transhumeral amputation. Motion data were collected from 14 subjects: 10 non-amputees control subjects, 1 person with a transradial amputation, and 3 persons with a transhumeral amputation, in the University of South Florida's (USF) motion analysis laboratory. Motion capture for each subject consisted of the repetition of a series of range of motion (RoM) tasks and activities of daily living (ADLs), which were recorded using an eight camera Vicon (Oxford, UK) motion analysis system. The control subjects were also asked to repeat the motions while wearing a brace on their dominant arm. The RoM tasks consisted of elbow flexion & extension, forearm pronation & supination, shoulder flexion & extension, shoulder abduction & adduction, shoulder rotation, torso flexion & extension, torso lateral flexion, and torso rotation. The ADLs evaluated were brushing one's hair, drinking from a cup, eating with a knife and fork, lifting a laundry basket, and opening a door. The impact of bracing and prosthetic devices on the subjects' RoM, and their motion during ADLs was analyzed. The segment geometries of the subjects' upper body were extracted directly from the motion analysis data using a functional joint center method. With this method there are no conventional or segment length differences between recorded data segments and the RHBM. This ensures the accuracy of the RHBM when reconstructing a recorded task, as the model has the same geometry as the recorded data. A detailed investigation of the weighted least norm, probability density gradient projection method, artificial neural networks was performed to optimize the redundancy RHBM inverse kinematics. The selected control algorithm consisted of a combination of the weighted least norm method and the gradient projection of the null space, minimizing the inverse of the probability density function. This method increases the accuracy of the RHBM while being suitable for a wide range of tasks and observing the required subject constraint inputs.

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15

Collins, Jack T. "Simulation to reality and back: A robot's guide to crossing the reality gap." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2022. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/230537/1/Jack_Collins_Thesis.pdf.

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Simulation is an indispensable technology within robotics; however, the reality gap prevents many simulated solutions from transferring perfectly to reality. This thesis investigates the reality gap within the context of robotic manipulation. We present studies that first quantify and then benchmark the reality gap when comparing popular robotic simulators to a real-world ground truth collected using motion capture. We then present a promising new method for overcoming the reality gap that employs an online sim-to-real approach that utilises differentiable physics to iteratively narrow the gap and improve the simulation environment using data collected from the real system.

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16

Mandokhot, Mohit Atul. "Development of Predictive Gasoline Direct Fuel Injector Model for Improved In-cylinder Combustion Characterization." The Ohio State University, 2018. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1534517269503352.

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17

Sefastsson, Ulf. "Evaluation of Missile Guidance and Autopilot through a 6 DOF Simulation Model." Thesis, KTH, Optimeringslära och systemteori, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-188897.

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Missile guidance and autopilot have been active fields of research since the second world war. There are lots of literature on the subjects, but the bulk of which are confined to overly simplified models, and therefore the publications of the methods applied to more realistic models are scarce. In this report a nonlinear 6 DOF simulation model of a tail-controlled air-to-air missile is considered. Through several assumptions and simplifications a linearized approximation of the plant is obtained, which then is used in the implementation of 5 guidance laws and 2 autopilots. The guidance laws are all based on a linearized collision geometry, and the autopilots are based on model predictive control (MPC). Both autopilots use linear quadratic MPC (LQMPC), and one is more robust to modelling errors than the conventional LQMPC. The guidance laws and autopilots are then evaluated with respect to performance in terms of miss distance in 4 interception scenarios with a moving target. The results show that the in this model the autopilots perform equally well, and that the guidance laws with more information about the target generally exhibit smaller miss distances, but at the cost of a considerably larger flight time for some scenarios. The conclusions are that the simplifying assumptions in the modelling are legitimate and that the challenges of missile control probably does not lie in the guidance or autopilot, but rather in the target tracking. Therefore it is suggested that future work include measurement noise and process disturbances in the model.
Det har forskats kring styrlagarna och styrautomaterna för robotar sedan an-dra världskrigets. Det finns mycket litteratur på områdena, men merparten av de publicerade resultaten behandlar enbart grovt förenklade modeller, och därför är tillgången på publikationer där metoderna applicerats i en mer realistisk modell begränsat. I denna rapport behandlas en olinjär simuleringsmodell av en jaktrobot som styrs med stjärtfenor och har sex frihetsgrader. Genom en rad antaganden och förenklingar erhålls en linjäriserad modell av missilen, vilket sedan används för implementering av fem styrlagar och två styrautomater. Styr-lagarna är alla baserade på en linjäriserad kollisionsgeometri och styrautomaterna är baserade på modellprediktiv styrning (MPC). Båda styrautomaterna använder linjärkvadratisk MPC, där den ena påstås vara mer robust gentemot modellfel. Styrlagarna och -automaterna utvärderas ur ett prestandaperspektiv med fokus på bomavstånd i fyra realistiska genskjutningsscenarier med ett rörligt mål. Resultaten visar att båda styrautomaterna presterar lika bra, och att de styrlagar med mer information om målets position/hastighet/acceleration generellt presterar bättre, men att de för vissa skjutfall får en väsentligt längre flygtid. Slutsatserna är att förenklingarna och antagandena i linjäriseringen är välgrundade, och att utmaningarna i missilstyrning inte ligger i utformning av styrlag/-automat, utan förmodligen i målsökningen. Därför föreslås det slutligen att framtida arbete bl. a. inkluderar mätbrus och störningar.

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18

Brischetto, Mathias. "Improved Functionality for Driveability During Gear-Shift : A Predictive Model for Boost Pressure Drop." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Fordonssystem, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-123424.

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Automated gear-shifts are critical procedures for the driveline as they are demanded to work as fast and accurate as possible. The torque control of a driveline is especially important for the driver’s feeling of driveability. In the case of gear-shifts and torque control in general, the boost pressure is key to achieve good response and thereby a fast gear-shift. An experimental study is carried out to investigate the phenomena of boost pressure drop during gear-shift and gather data for the modelling work. Results confirm the stated fact on the influence of boost pressure drop on gear-shift completion time and also indicate a clear linear dependence between initial boost pressure and the following pressure drop. A dynamic predictive model of the engine is developed with focus on implementation in a heavy duty truck, considering limitations computational complexity and calibration need between truck configurations. The resulting approach is based on a mean value modelling scheme that uses engine control system parameters and functions when possible. To be able to be predictive, a model for demanded torque and engine speed during the gear-shift is developed as reference inputs to the simulation. The simulation is based on a filling and emptying process throughout the engine dynamics, and yields final values of several engine variables such as boost pressure. The model is validated and later evaluated in comparison to measurements gathered in test vehicle experiments and in terms of robustness to input and model deviations. Computer simulations yield estimations of the boost pressure drop within acceptable limits. Consid- ering estimations used prior to this thesis the performance is good. Input deviations and modelling inaccuracies are found to inflict significant but not devastating deviations to the model output, possibly more over time with ageing of hardware taken into account. Final implementation in a heavy duty truck ecu is carried out with results indicating that the current implementation of the module is relatively computationally heavy. At the time of ending the thesis it is not possible to analyse its performance further, and it is suggested that the module is optimized in terms of computational efficiency.

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19

Duprey, Benjamin Lawrence Blake. "A New Fuzzy Based Stability Index Using Predictive Vehicle Modeling and GPS Data." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/32762.

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The use of global positioning systems, or GPS, as a means of logistical organization for fleet vehicles has become more widespread in recent years. The system has the ability to track vehicle location, report on diagnostic trouble codes, and keep tabs on maintenance schedules. This helps to improve the safety and productivity of the vehicles and their operators. Additionally, the increasing use of yaw and roll stability control in commercial trucks has contributed to an increased level of safety for truck drivers. However, these systems require the vehicle to begin a yaw or roll event before they assist in maintaining control. This thesis presents a new method for utilizing the GPS signal in conjunction with a new fuzzy logic-based stability index, the Total Safety Margin (TSM), to create a superior active safety system.

This thesis consists of four main components:

An overview of GPS technology is presented with coverage of several automotive-based applications. The proposed implementation of GPS in the new Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) driving simulator under development at the Virginia Tech Center for Vehicle Systems and Safety (CVeSS) is presented.
The three degree-of-freedom (3DOF), linear, single track equation set used in the Matlab simulations is derived from first principles.
Matlab and TruckSim 7Â® simulations are performed for five vehicle masses and three forward velocities in a ramp-steer maneuver. Using fuzzy logic to develop the control rules for the Total Safety Margin (TSM), TSM matrices are built for both the Matlab and TruckSim 7Â® results based on these testing conditions. By comparing these TSM matrices it is shown that the two simulation methods yield similar results.
A discussion of the development and implementation of the aforementioned HIL driving simulator is presented, specifically the steering subsystem. Using Matlab/Simulink, dSPACE ControlDesk, and CarSim RTÂ® software it is shown that the steering module is capable of steering the CarSim RTÂ® simulation vehicle accurately within the physical range of the steering sensor used.

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20

Maran, Fabio. "Model-Based Control Techniques for Automotive Applications." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Padova, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/11577/3423131.

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Two different topics are covered in the thesis. Model Predictive Control applied to the Motion Cueing Problem In the last years the interest about dynamic driving simulators is increasing and new commercial solutions are arising. Driving simulators play an important role in the development of new vehicles and advanced driver assistance devices: in fact, on the one hand, having a human driver on a driving simulator allows automotive manufacturers to bridge the gap between virtual prototyping and on-road testing during the vehicle development phase; on the other hand, novel driver assistance systems (such as advanced accident avoidance systems) can be safely tested by having the driver operating the vehicle in a virtual, highly realistic environment, while being exposed to hazardous situations. In both applications, it is crucial to faithfully reproduce in the simulator the driver's perception of forces acting on the vehicle and its acceleration. This has to be achieved while keeping the platform within its limited operation space. Such strategies go under the name of Motion Cueing Algorithms. In this work, a particular implementation of a Motion Cueing algorithm is described, that is based on Model Predictive Control technique. A distinctive feature of such approach is that it exploits a detailed model of the human vestibular system, and consequently differs from standard Motion Cueing strategies based on Washout Filters: such feature allows for better implementation of tilt coordination and more efficient handling of the platform limits. The algorithm has been evaluated in practice on a small-size, innovative platform, by performing tests with professional drivers. Results show that the MPC-based motion cueing algorithm allows to effectively handle the platform working area, to limit the presence of those platform movements that are typically associated with driver motion sickness, and to devise simple and intuitive tuning procedures. Moreover, the availability of an effective virtual driver allows the development of effective predictive strategies, and first simulation results are reported in the thesis. Control Techniques for a Hybrid Sport Motorcycle Reduction of the environmental impact of transportation systems is a world wide priority. Hybrid propulsion vehicles have proved to have a strong potential to this regard, and different four-wheels solutions have spread out in the market. Differently from cars, and even if they are considered the ideal solution for urban mobility, motorbikes and mopeds have not seen a wide application of hybrid propulsion yet, mostly due to the more strict constraints on available space and driving feeling. In the thesis, the problem of providing a commercial 125cc motorbike with a hybrid propulsion system is considered, by adding an electric engine to its standard internal combustion engine. The aim for the prototype is to use the electrical machine (directly keyed on the drive shaft) to obtain a torque boost during accelerations, improving and regularizing the supplied power while reducing the emissions. Two different control algorithms are proposed 1) the first is based on a standard heuristic with adaptive features, simpler to implement on the ECU for the prototype; 2) the second is a torque-split optimal-control strategy, managing the different contributions from the two engines. A crucial point is the implementation of a Simulink virtual environment, realized starting from a commercial tool, VI-BikeRealTime, to test the algorithms. The hybrid engine model has been implemented in the tool from scratch, as well as a simple battery model, derived directly from data-sheet characteristics by using polynomial interpolation. The simulation system is completed by a virtual rider and a tool for build test circuits. Results of the simulations on a realistic track are included, to evaluate the different performance of the two strategies in a closed loop environment (thanks to the virtual rider). The results from on-track tests of the real prototype, using the first control strategy, are reported too.
Nella tesi vengono trattati due argomenti distinti. Model Predictive Control applicato al Motion Cueing Problem Gli ultimi anni hanno visto un'interesse sempre crescente nei confronti dei simulatori di guida dinamici, con lo sviluppo e la diffusione nel mercato di nuovi soluzioni. I simulatori di guida giocano infatti un ruolo fondamentale nello sviluppo di nuovi veicoli e dei vari dispositivi di aiuto alla guida: infatti, da un lato la presenza di un guidatore in un simulatore permette ai produttori in ambito automotive di colmare il divario fra la prototipazione virtuale e i test su strada nella fase di sviluppo del veicolo; dall'altro, i nuovi sistemi di assistenza alla guida (come ad esempio le procedure di advanced accident avoidance attualmente in fase di sviluppo) posso essere testati in totale sicurezza ponendo il pilota in un contesto virtuale altamente realistico, simulando le situazioni di pericolo. In entrambe queste applicazioni risulta cruciale riprodurre fedelmente nella piattaforma la percezione che l'essere umano avrebbe, all'interno del veicolo reale, delle forze agenti sul mezzo e le conseguenti accelerazioni. Questo task deve essere compiuto tenendo conto dei vincoli fisici del simulatore, all'interno dei quali deve avvenire il moto. Le strategie utilizzate per perseguire questo obbiettivo vanno sotto il nome di Motion Cueing Algorithms. Il presente lavoro intende illustrare una particolare implementazione di un Motion Cueing Algorithm, basato sulla tecnica di controllo nota come Model Predictive Control. Una delle principali caratteristiche di questo approccio è lo sfruttamento di un modello del sistema vestibolare umano, e questo (assieme ad altre features) lo rende differente dalle strategie standard di Motion Cueing: esso permette infatti una migliore realizzazione della tilt coordination e una più efficiente gestione dei limiti di piattaforma. L'algoritmo è stato testato sperimentalmente su una piattaforma innovativa, dalle dimensioni ridotte, con l'aiuto di piloti professionisti. I risultati dimostrano come l'algoritmo basato su MPC permetta di gestire efficientemente l'area di lavoro del simulatore, limitando la presenza di tutti quei comportamenti tipicamenti associati alla motion sickness, garantendo nel contempo un approccio molto più semplice e concreto alle procedure di tuning, rispetto alle procedure classiche. In più, la disponibilità di un efficace driver virtuale permette lo sviluppo di strategie predittive affidabili: nella tesi sono riportati alcuni iniziali risultati simulativi in tal senso. Tecniche di Controllo per un Motociclo Ibrido Sportivo La riduzione dell'impatto ambientale dei sistemi di trasporto si sta affermando come una priorità sentita a livello mondiale. I veicoli a propulsione ibrida hanno dimostrato avere un grande potenziale a questo riguardo, e svariate soluzioni sono ormai diffuse sul mercato per quanto riguarda i veicoli a quattro ruote. A differenza delle automobili, e pur essendo considerati la soluzione ideale per la mobilità urbana, l'applicazione della propulsione ibrida a motociclette e scooter non ha ancora avuto una diffusione significativa, e ciò è dovuto in gran parte ai grossi vincoli di spazio e all'impatto della propulsione additiva sul feeling alla guida. In questa parte della tesi viene considerato il problema dell'applicazione della propulsione ibrida a una motocicletta 125cc in commercio, aggiungendo una macchina elettrica al motore termico presente di serie. Lo scopo, per il particolare prototipo, è sfruttare la macchina elettrica (installata in modo solidale all'albero motore) per fornire un incremento alla coppia erogata durante le accelerazioni, migliorando e regolarizzando la potenza della moto e riducendo nel contempo le emissioni di gas nocivi. Due algoritmi di controllo sono proposti per la gestione del motore elettrico e degli accumulatori 1) il primo è basato su una euristica standard con caratteristiche adattative, più semplice da implementare nella ECU per la prototipazione; 2) il secondo è basato su una strategia di controllo ottimo con lo scopo di gestire in maniera ottimale la coppia erogata da entrambi i motori. Elemento cruciale è l'implementazione di un ambiente virtuale Simulink realizzato integrando un tool in commercio, VI-BireRealTime, per la valutazione degli algoritmi. Il modello del motore ibrido è stato implementato ex-novo, e così anche un (semplice) modello di batteria, derivato con interpolazione polinomiale dalle caratteristiche riportate nei data-sheet. Il sistema di simulazione è completato dalla presenza di un virtual rider e di un tool per la realizzazione di circuiti di test. Sono riportati i risultati delle simulazioni su un tracciato realistico per valutare le differenti performance delle due strategie in catena chiusa (grazie al rider virtuale). Sono riportati anche i risultalti su pista del prototipo realizzato.

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21

Michelini, Elisa. "Integration of Energy and Power Predictive Model in Material Flow Simulation: hybrid modelling by using AutoMod ® and Matlab ®." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2018.

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In questa tesi viene proposto un metodo per integrare un modulo per la previsione della domanda di energia e di potenza, sviluppato in MATLAB®, nel software di simulazione AutoMod®, con l’obiettivo di fornire un simulatore in grado di valutare le prestazioni degli AS/RSs anche dal punto di vista energetico. MATLAB® è una piattaforma di calcolo numerico che offre un linguaggio di programmazione avanzato per lo sviluppo di modelli matematici. AutoMod® è un software di simulazione ad eventi discreti largamente utilizzato per la rappresentazione e la valutazione del flusso di materiali nei sistemi logistici e di produzione. L’accoppiamento è stato realizzato attraverso la modellazione ibrida tra i due software, adottando un approccio modulare. Il modello matematico per predire il consumo energetico e di potenza è stato sviluppato interamente nel software di programmazione MATLAB®, per sfruttarne appieno le potenzialità di calcolo all’interno del suo dominio. La libreria dinamica a collegamento dinamico (DLL) è stata scelta come mezzo attraverso il quale realizzare l’accoppiamento, perché, per la sua natura, promuove la modularizzazione dei programmi. La fase fondamentale della ricerca è stata lo sviluppo di un’interfaccia di comunicazione in linguaggio di programmazione C, elemento per concretizzare l’integrazione del modulo energetico nel simulatore. Il metodo proposto si è rivelato efficace ai fini dell'integrazione tra MATLAB® e AutoMod® ed è, inoltre, facilmente estensibile a progetti analoghi, anche in ambito non energetico.

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22

DI, FILIPPO Gabriella. "SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY: SIMULATION OF THE ADOPTION OF FUEL CELL ELECTRIC VEHICLES." Doctoral thesis, Università degli Studi di Palermo, 2022. https://hdl.handle.net/10447/576069.

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23

Stocca, Valentina. "Development of a predictive LES model for the study of the pollutant dispersion in urban areas." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Trieste, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10077/3512.

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2008/2009
In this thesis, a new large-eddy simulation solver, LES-AIR, has been developed, tested and applied to a practical situation of flow and pollutant dispersion in urban environments. The novelty of the present research resides in the application of a high resolution, accurate, CFD technique to the simulation of real-life flows. The code uses a body fitted curvilinear grid to account for the macro geometry such as terrain slopes, and is thus able to reproduce in detail the complex conditions typical of urban areas; by utilizing the technique of immersed boundaries, the code is also able to mimic the presence the micro complexities such as anthropic structures (i.e. buildings). The first part of the thesis presents a detailed description of the mathematical and numerical model on which the code is based. An extensive set of validation tests was performed in flow configurations having an increasing degree of complexity in terms of forcing and geometry. The numerical model thus validated is applied for obtaining flow and pollutant dispersion in the Servola-Valmaura suburban area of the city of Trieste in Italy. The pollutant was introduced into the domain from a line source near the ground, mimicking the emission from vehicular traffic. In spite of the idealizations inherent to the model, LES-AIR is able to predict the flow and dispersion patterns well, and has proven to be a reliable tool for adaptation in urban pollution studies.
Nella presente tesi è stato sviluppato, testato ed applicato ad un caso studio applicativo un nuovo solutore numerico, chiamato codice LES-AIR, capace di predire i campi di vento e la dispersione di nquinanti in ambienti urbani. La maggiore novità di questo lavoro risiede nell’utilizzo di una tecnica ﬂuidodinamica molto accurata e ad alta risoluzione per la simulazione di ﬂussi reali. Il codice LES-AIR è capace di riprodurre con grande dettaglio le geometrie complesse tipiche delle aree urbane tramite l’utilizzo congiunto di una griglia curvilinea, che si adatta all’ orograﬁa del terreno, e della tecnica dei corpi immersi, con la quale vengono riprodotti gli ostacoli antropici, quali gli ediﬁci. Nella prima parte della tesi viene fornita una descrizione dettagliata del modello matematico e numerico su cui si basa il codice. Il modello è stato validato per mezzo di un esteso set di casi test, aventi un grado crescente di complessit à in termini di forzanti e di conﬁgurazione geometriche. Il modello così validato è stato applicato alla riproduzione di un caso applicativo nel quale i campi di vento e la dispersione di un inquinante nella zona di Servola-Valmaura, situata nella periferia di Trieste, sono stati simulati. L’ inquinante è stato introdotto da una sorgente lineare posta in prosimità del terreno e rappresentante l’emissione derivante dal traﬃco cittadino. Nonostante le condizioni idealizzate di vento considerate, il codice LES-AIR si è dimostrato molto eﬃcace nella predizione del ﬂusso e della dispersione dell’inquinante e quindi si è attestato essere un valido strumento negli studi d’ inquinamento urbani.
XXII Ciclo
1981

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24

Ledet, Jeffrey H. "Simulation and Performance Evaluation of Algorithms for Unmanned Aircraft Conflict Detection and Resolution." ScholarWorks@UNO, 2016. http://scholarworks.uno.edu/td/2168.

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The problem of aircraft conflict detection and resolution (CDR) in uncertainty is addressed in this thesis. The main goal in CDR is to provide safety for the aircraft while minimizing their fuel consumption and flight delays. In reality, a high degree of uncertainty can exist in certain aircraft-aircraft encounters especially in cases where aircraft do not have the capabilities to communicate with each other. Through the use of a probabilistic approach and a multiple model (MM) trajectory information processing framework, this uncertainty can be effectively handled. For conflict detection, a randomized Monte Carlo (MC) algorithm is used to accurately detect conflicts, and, if a conflict is detected, a conflict resolution algorithm is run that utilizes a sequential list Viterbi algorithm. This thesis presents the MM CDR method and a comprehensive MC simulation and performance evaluation study that demonstrates its capabilities and efficiency.

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25

Tian, Guosong. "Network protocols and predictive control strategies for distributed real-time control applications." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2010. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/41545/1/Guosong_Tian_Thesis.pdf.

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A trend in design and implementation of modern industrial automation systems is to integrate computing, communication and control into a unified framework at different levels of machine/factory operations and information processing. These distributed control systems are referred to as networked control systems (NCSs). They are composed of sensors, actuators, and controllers interconnected over communication networks. As most of communication networks are not designed for NCS applications, the communication requirements of NCSs may be not satisfied. For example, traditional control systems require the data to be accurate, timely and lossless. However, because of random transmission delays and packet losses, the control performance of a control system may be badly deteriorated, and the control system rendered unstable. The main challenge of NCS design is to both maintain and improve stable control performance of an NCS. To achieve this, communication and control methodologies have to be designed. In recent decades, Ethernet and 802.11 networks have been introduced in control networks and have even replaced traditional fieldbus productions in some real-time control applications, because of their high bandwidth and good interoperability. As Ethernet and 802.11 networks are not designed for distributed control applications, two aspects of NCS research need to be addressed to make these communication networks suitable for control systems in industrial environments. From the perspective of networking, communication protocols need to be designed to satisfy communication requirements for NCSs such as real-time communication and high-precision clock consistency requirements. From the perspective of control, methods to compensate for network-induced delays and packet losses are important for NCS design. To make Ethernet-based and 802.11 networks suitable for distributed control applications, this thesis develops a high-precision relative clock synchronisation protocol and an analytical model for analysing the real-time performance of 802.11 networks, and designs a new predictive compensation method. Firstly, a hybrid NCS simulation environment based on the NS-2 simulator is designed and implemented. Secondly, a high-precision relative clock synchronization protocol is designed and implemented. Thirdly, transmission delays in 802.11 networks for soft-real-time control applications are modeled by use of a Markov chain model in which real-time Quality-of- Service parameters are analysed under a periodic traffic pattern. By using a Markov chain model, we can accurately model the tradeoff between real-time performance and throughput performance. Furthermore, a cross-layer optimisation scheme, featuring application-layer flow rate adaptation, is designed to achieve the tradeoff between certain real-time and throughput performance characteristics in a typical NCS scenario with wireless local area network. Fourthly, as a co-design approach for both a network and a controller, a new predictive compensation method for variable delay and packet loss in NCSs is designed, where simultaneous end-to-end delays and packet losses during packet transmissions from sensors to actuators is tackled. The effectiveness of the proposed predictive compensation approach is demonstrated using our hybrid NCS simulation environment.

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26

Kam, Shui-Cheong. "Assessing of circuit breaker restrike risks using computer simulation and wavelet analysis." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2012. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/53144/1/Shui-Cheong_Kam_Thesis.pdf.

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A breaker restrike is an abnormal arcing phenomenon, leading to a possible breaker failure. Eventually, this failure leads to interruption of the transmission and distribution of the electricity supply system until the breaker is replaced. Before 2008, there was little evidence in the literature of monitoring techniques based on restrike measurement and interpretation produced during switching of capacitor banks and shunt reactor banks in power systems. In 2008 a non-intrusive radiometric restrike measurement method and a restrike hardware detection algorithm were developed by M.S. Ramli and B. Kasztenny. However, the limitations of the radiometric measurement method are a band limited frequency response as well as limitations in amplitude determination. Current restrike detection methods and algorithms require the use of wide bandwidth current transformers and high voltage dividers. A restrike switch model using Alternative Transient Program (ATP) and Wavelet Transforms which support diagnostics are proposed. Restrike phenomena become a new diagnostic process using measurements, ATP and Wavelet Transforms for online interrupter monitoring. This research project investigates the restrike switch model Parameter „A. dielectric voltage gradient related to a normal and slowed case of the contact opening velocity and the escalation voltages, which can be used as a diagnostic tool for a vacuum circuit-breaker (CB) at service voltages between 11 kV and 63 kV. During current interruption of an inductive load at current quenching or chopping, a transient voltage is developed across the contact gap. The dielectric strength of the gap should rise to a point to withstand this transient voltage. If it does not, the gap will flash over, resulting in a restrike. A straight line is fitted through the voltage points at flashover of the contact gap. This is the point at which the gap voltage has reached a value that exceeds the dielectric strength of the gap. This research shows that a change in opening contact velocity of the vacuum CB produces a corresponding change in the slope of the gap escalation voltage envelope. To investigate the diagnostic process, an ATP restrike switch model was modified with contact opening velocity computation for restrike waveform signature analyses along with experimental investigations. This also enhanced a mathematical CB model with the empirical dielectric model for SF6 (sulphur hexa-fluoride) CBs at service voltages above 63 kV and a generalised dielectric curve model for 12 kV CBs. A CB restrike can be predicted if there is a similar type of restrike waveform signatures for measured and simulated waveforms. The restrike switch model applications are used for: computer simulations as virtual experiments, including predicting breaker restrikes; estimating the interrupter remaining life of SF6 puffer CBs; checking system stresses; assessing point-on-wave (POW) operations; and for a restrike detection algorithm development using Wavelet Transforms. A simulated high frequency nozzle current magnitude was applied to an Equation (derived from the literature) which can calculate the life extension of the interrupter of a SF6 high voltage CB. The restrike waveform signatures for a medium and high voltage CB identify its possible failure mechanism such as delayed opening, degraded dielectric strength and improper contact travel. The simulated and measured restrike waveform signatures are analysed using Matlab software for automatic detection. Experimental investigation of a 12 kV vacuum CB diagnostic was carried out for the parameter determination and a passive antenna calibration was also successfully developed with applications for field implementation. The degradation features were also evaluated with a predictive interpretation technique from the experiments, and the subsequent simulation indicates that the drop in voltage related to the slow opening velocity mechanism measurement to give a degree of contact degradation. A predictive interpretation technique is a computer modeling for assessing switching device performance, which allows one to vary a single parameter at a time; this is often difficult to do experimentally because of the variable contact opening velocity. The significance of this thesis outcome is that it is a non-intrusive method developed using measurements, ATP and Wavelet Transforms to predict and interpret a breaker restrike risk. The measurements on high voltage circuit-breakers can identify degradation that can interrupt the distribution and transmission of an electricity supply system. It is hoped that the techniques for the monitoring of restrike phenomena developed by this research will form part of a diagnostic process that will be valuable for detecting breaker stresses relating to the interrupter lifetime. Suggestions for future research, including a field implementation proposal to validate the restrike switch model for ATP system studies and the hot dielectric strength curve model for SF6 CBs, are given in Appendix A.

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27

Warner, Holly E. "Simulation and Control at the Boundaries Between Humans and Assistive Robots." Cleveland State University / OhioLINK, 2019. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=csu1577719990967925.

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28

Aoun, Nadine. "Modeling and flexible predictive control of buildings space-heating demand in district heating systems." Thesis, Université Paris-Saclay (ComUE), 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019SACLC104.

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La gestion de la demande en chauffage des bâtiments raccordés à des réseaux de chaleur s'effectue classiquement au moyen d’une courbe de chauffe : lorsque la température extérieure chute, la température de départ de l’eau alimentant le circuit de chauffage interne est relevée. Ce mode de contrôle, appelé régulation par loi d’eau, présente des atouts en termes de simplicité et de robustesse, mais ne tient pas compte de l'inertie thermique du bâtiment et ne permet donc pas une modulation de sa demande. La modulation de la demande en chauffage se définit comme l'action de contrôle consistant à modifier de manière stratégique les conditions de confort thermique dans le cadre d’une optimisation énergétique et/ou économique. Il s’agit d’une brique essentielle du contrôle flexible qui envisage le déplacement des charges et l’effacement des pics pour une meilleure efficacité de production favorisant la pénétration des énergies renouvelables et de récupération.Ces travaux de thèse visent à développer une stratégie de contrôle prédictif et flexible de la demande en chauffage, applicable à grande échelle dans les réseaux de chaleur.Tout d'abord, un simulateur thermique dynamique de bâtiment résidentiel, équipé de radiateurs hydrauliques connectés à une sous-station de réseau de chaleur, est développé. Il permet de définir plusieurs cas d’études de bâtiments représentatifs du parc résidentiel français et constitue l’environnement expérimental virtuel de nos travaux de recherche. Ensuite, une méthodologie permettant d’obtenir un modèle orienté-contrôle et d’ordre réduit de bâtiment avec son système de chauffage est proposée. Elle commence par la définition de la structure du modèle en se basant sur des connaissances physiques, puis consiste en l'identification des paramètres par optimisation méta-heuristique à l'aide des données générées par le simulateur. L'approche d'identification paramétrique évalue la possibilité de réaliser cette tâche en ne s’appuyant que sur des données disponibles au niveau de la sous-station, notamment en s’interdisant d’utiliser des mesures de température intérieure au bâtiment, donnée à caractère personnel présumée indisponible à grande échelle pour des raisons techniques, économiques et juridiques. Enfin, la stratégie de contrôle prédictif est implémentée. Elle permet la planification de la température de départ de l'eau de chauffage en fonction des prévisions météorologiques et des prix de l’énergie. Le contrôleur flexible s’appuie sur un problème d’optimisation linéaire sous contraintes, selon le principe de l’horizon fuyant. Il incorpore les équations linéarisées du modèle d’ordre réduit et calcule le compromis optimal entre coûts énergétiques et inconfort thermique, le degré de flexibilité de la demande en chauffage étant défini par l’intermédiaire de paramètres de réglage dédiés
In District Heating Systems (DHSs), buildings Space-Heating (SH) demand management conventionally relies on a heating curve: when the outdoor temperature drops, the internal SH system supply water temperature is raised. This control mode, referred to as Weather-Compensation Control (WCC), offers widely recognized assets in terms of simplicity and robustness. However, WCC does not account for the building thermal inertia, and consequently, it does not allow modulation of its demand. SH demand modulation is the control action of strategically altering the indoor thermal comfort conditions within an energetic and/or economic optimization framework. It is a key measure in flexible demand control strategies, which seek loads shifting and peaks shaving to allow sustainable commitment of energy resources in favour of renewable power penetration and waste heat recovery.The work presented in this thesis aims at developing a flexible Model Predictive Control (MPC) strategy for SH demand, applicable at large scale in DHSs.Firstly, a thermal dynamic simulator of a residential building with a radiator SH circuit connected to a DHS substation is developed. It allows the definition of multiple case study buildings, well-representative of the french residential stock, and constitutes the virtual experimental environment for our research. Then, a methodology to obtain a control-oriented Reduced-Order Model (ROM) for the building and its SH system is proposed. It starts by defining the ROM structure based on physical knowledge, and proceeds to parameters identification by meta-heuristic optimization using data generated by the simulator. The parametric identification approach evaluates the possibility of carrying out this task by relying solely on data available at the substation level, refraining from using indoor temperature measurements, personal data assumed to be unavailable at large scale for technical, economic and legal reasons. Finally, MPC is implemented to schedule the SH supply water temperature as function of weather forecasts and energy price variations. The flexible controller is designed to solve a constrained linear optimization problem according to the receding horizon principle. It embeds the linearized ROM equations within the problem formulation and makes an optimal trade-off between energy consumption costs and thermal discomfort, the degree of flexibility to modulate SH demand being defined through dedicated tuning parameters

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Cieslar, Dariusz. "Control for transient response of turbocharged engines." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2013. https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/244951.

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The concepts of engine downsizing and down-speeding offer reductions in CO2 emissions from passenger cars. These reductions are achieved by reducing pumping and friction losses at part-load operation. Conventionally, rated torque and power for downsized units are recovered by means of turbocharging. The transient response of such engines is, however, affected by the static and dynamic characteristics of the turbo-machinery. Recent advances in engine simulation and control tools have been employed for the purpose of the research reported in this thesis to identify and verify possible air-path enhancements. A systematic method for evaluating various turbocharger assistance concepts is proposed and discussed in this thesis. To ensure a fair comparison of selected candidate systems, an easily reconfigurable controller providing a close-to-optimal operation, while satisfying physical limits, is formulated. This controller is based on the Model Predictive Control framework and uses a linearised mean value model to optimise the predicted behaviour of the engine. Initially, the controller was applied to a 1D simulation model of a conventional light-duty Diesel engine, for which the desired closed-loop features were verified. This procedure was subsequently applied to various air-path enhancement systems. In this thesis, a turbocharger electric assistance and various concepts based on compressed gas injection were considered. The capability of these systems to improve engine response during third gear tip-in manoeuvre was quantified. This investigation was also complemented with a parametric study of how effectively each of the considered methods used its available resources. As a result, injecting compressed gas into the exhaust manifold was identified as an effective method, which to date has attracted limited attention from engine research community. The effectiveness of the exhaust manifold assistance was experimentally verified on a light-duty Diesel engine. The sensitivity of the improvements to compressed gas supply parameters was also investigated. This led to the development of the BREES system: a low component count, compressed gas based system for reducing turbo-lag. It was shown that during braking manoeuvres a tank can be charged to the level sufficient for a subsequent boost assistance event. Such a functionality was implemented with a very limited set of additional components and only minor changes to the standard engine control.

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30

VASQUEZ, AGUILAR JENIFER. "Integral sustainability model for the improvement of environmental and productive processes in small and medium enterprises." Doctoral thesis, Politecnico di Torino, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/11583/2932753.

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31

Marques, Thyago Carvalho. "Uma politica operativa a usinas individualizadas para o planejamento da operação energetica do sistema interligado nacional." [s.n.], 2006. http://repositorio.unicamp.br/jspui/handle/REPOSIP/261140.

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Анотація:

Orientador: Secundino Soares Filho
Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Eletrica e de Computação
Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-08T14:25:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Marques_ThyagoCarvalho_D.pdf: 9101920 bytes, checksum: 5cf6202ab737e2bcab996c2704ede5ec (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006
Resumo: Este trabalho apresenta uma polÃtica para a operaÃ§Ã£o energÃ©tica do Sistema Nacional (SIN), baseada na representaÃ§Ã£o individualizada das usinas hidrelÃ©tricas e termelÃ©tricas, na representaÃ§Ã£o detalhada das caracterÃsticas de operaÃ§Ã£o dessas usinas, e na representaÃ§Ã£o indireta da estocasticidade das vazÃµes atravÃ©s demodelo de previsÃ£o. Essas caracterÃsticas diferem a polÃtica operativa proposta daquela em vigor no setor elÃ©trico brasileiro, que se baseia na modelagem equivalente de sistemas hidrotÃ©rmicos interligados. Diversos estudos de caso sÃ£o apresentados com o intuito de avaliar o desempenho dessa polÂ'Ä±tica, desde o caso de sistemas hidrotÃ©rmicos simples com uma Ãºnica usina atÃ© o caso completo do SIN sob condiÃ§Ãµes reais. Para esse Ãºltimo caso, um procedimento de ajuste da operaÃ§Ã£o foi implementado para assegurar o atendimento do mercado com as restriÃ§Ãµes de intercÃ¢mbio entre os subsistemas. AnÃ¡lises de sensibilidade foram realizadas em relaÃ§Ã£o a restriÃ§Ãµes de intercÃ¢mbio, inflexibilidade das usinas termelÃ©tricas, a importÃ¢ncia de algumas usinas hidrelÃ©tricas e mercado
Abstract: This work presents an operational policy for the mid term hydrothermal scheduling of the Brazilian Interconnected Power System (BIPS) based on the individual representation of the hydro and thermo power plants, the detailed representation of the plantsâ?¿ features and the indirect representation of the inflow stochasticity through a forecasting model. These characteristics differs the operational policy which is in use nowadays in BIPS, which is based on four interconnected subsystems represented by composite reservoirs. Several case studies are presented to evaluate the performance of the operational policy, from the simple case with a single hydro plant system to the complete case of the whole BIPS under real conditions. For this last case an operational adjustment procedure was implemented to assure the market attendance considering interchange constraints between the subsystems. Sensitivity analyses have been done with respected to interchange, minimum thermal generation, market, importance of hydro plants and system dimension
Doutorado
Energia Eletrica
Doutor em Engenharia Elétrica

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32

Sarmiento, Carnevali Maria Laura. "Modeling and control of PEM fuel cells." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/667121.

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In recent years, the PEM fuel cell technology has been incorporated to the R&D plans of many key companies in the automotive, stationary power and portable electronics sectors. However, despite current developments, the technology is not mature enough to be significantly introduced into the energy market. Performance, durability and cost are the key challenges. The performance and durability of PEM fue! cells significantly depend on variations in the concentrations of hydrogen and oxygen in the gas channels, water activity in the catalyst layers and other backing layers, water content in the polymer electrolyte membrane, as well as temperature, among other variables. Such variables exhibit intemal spatial dependence in the direction of the fuel and air streams of the anode and cathode. Highly non-uniform spatial distributions in PEM fuel cells result in local over-heating, cell flooding, accelerated ageing, and lower power output than expected. Despite the importance of spatial variations of certain variables in PEM fuel cells, not many works available in the literature target the control of spatial profiles. Most control-oriented designs use lumped-parameter models because of their simplicity and convenience for controller performance. In contrast, this Doctoral Thesis targets the distributed parameter modelling and control of PEM fuel cells. In the modelling part, the research addresses the detailed development of a non-linear distributed parameter model of a single PEM fuel cell, which incorporates the effects of spatial variations of variables that are relevant to its proper performance. The model is first used to analyse important cell intemal spatial profiles, and it is later simplified in arder to decrease its computational complexity and make it suitable for control purposes. In this task, two different model order reduction techniques are applied and compared. The purpose of the control part is to tackle water management and supply of reactants, which are two major PEM fuel cell operation challenges with important degradation consequences. In this part of the Thesis, two decentralised control strategies based on distributed parameter model predictive controllers are designed, implemented and analysed via simulation environment State observers are also designed to estímate intemal unmeasurable spatial profiles necessary for the control action. The aim of the first strategy is to monitor and control observed water activity spatial profiles on both sides of the membrana to appropriate levels. These target values are carefully chosen to combine proper membrane, catalyst layer and gas diffusion layer humídification, whilst the rate of accumulation of excess liquid water is reduced. The key objective of this approach is to decrease the frequency of water removal actions that cause disruption in the power supplied by the cell, increased parasitic losses or degradation of cell efficiency. The second strategy is a variation of the previous water activity control strategy, which includes the control of spatial distribution of gases in the fuel and air channels. This integrated solution aims to avoid starvation of reactants by controlling corresponding concentration spatial profiles. This approach is intended to prevent PEM fuel cell degradation due to corrosion mechanisms, and thennal stress caused by the consequences of reactant starvation.
A pesar de los avances actuales, la tecnología de celdas de hidrógeno tipo PEM no está suficientemente preparada para ser ampliamente introducida en el mercado energético. Rendimiento, durabilidad y costo son los mayores retos. El rendimiento y la durabilidad de las celdas dependen significativamente de las variaciones en las concentraciones de hidrógeno y oxígeno en los canales de alimentación de gases, la humedad relativa en las capas catalizadoras, el contenido de agua de la membrana polimérica, así como la temperatura, entre otras variables. Dichas variables presentan dependencia espacial interna en la dirección del flujo de gases del ánodo y del cátodo. Distribuciones espaciales altamente no uniformes en algunas variables de la celda resultan en sobrecalentamiento local, inundación, degradación acelerada y menor potencia de la requerida. Muy pocos trabajos disponibles en la literatura se ocupan del control de perfiles espaciales. La mayoría de los diseños orientados a control usan modelos de parámetros concentrados que ignoran la dependencia espacial de variables internas de la celda, debido a la complejidad que añaden al funcionamiento de controladores. En contraste, esta Tesis Doctoral trata la modelización y control de parámetros distribuidos en las celdas de hidrógeno tipo PEM. En la parte de modelización, esta tesis presenta el desarrollo detallado de un modelo no lineal de parámetros distribuidos para una sola celda, el cual incorpora las variaciones espaciales de todas las variables que son relevantes para su correcto funcionamiento. El modelo se usa primero para analizar importantes perfiles espaciales internos, y luego se simplifica para reducir su complejidad computacional y adecuarlo a propósitos de control. En esta tarea se usan y se comparan dos técnicas de reducción de orden de modelos. El propósito de la parte de control es abordar la gestión de agua y el suministro de reactantes, que son dos grandes retos en el funcionamiento de las celdas con importantes consecuencias para su vida útil. En esta parte de la tesis, dos estrategias de control descentralizadas, basadas en controladores predictivos de modelos de referencia con parámetros distribuidos, son diseñadas, implementadas y analizadas en un entorno de simulación. Estas tareas incluyen también el diseño de observadores de estado que estiman los perfiles espaciales internos necesarios para la acción de control. El objetivo de la primera estrategia es monitorear y controlar perfiles espaciales observados de la humedad relativa en las capas catalizadoras para mantenerlos en niveles apropiados. Estos niveles son escogidos cuidadosamente para combinar la correcta humidificación de la membrana y las capas catalizadoras, reduciendo la velocidad de acumulación de agua líquida. El objetivo clave de este enfoque es disminuir la frecuencia de las acciones de remoción de agua dentro de la celda, ya que estas acciones causan interrupción en la potencia suministrada, aumento de las cargas parasitarias y disminución de la eficiencia. La segunda estrategia es una variación de la estrategia anterior que considera adicionalmente el control de la distribución espacial de los gases en los canales del ánodo y cátodo. Esta solución integrada tiene como objetivo evitar la ausencia local de reactantes mediante el control de perfiles espaciales de concentración de gases. Este enfoque pretende prevenir la degradación de las celdas debido a mecanismos de corrosión. Los resultados muestran un mayor rendimiento de la celda considerando los enfoques de control de perfiles espaciales propuestos en esta tesis, en comparación con técnicas de control que ignoran dichos perfiles. Además, la característica descentralizada de los esquemas de control, combinada con el uso de modelos reducidos dentro de los controladores predictivos, tiene un impacto positivo importante en el rendimiento general del control.

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Dawoua, Kaoutoing Maxime. "Contributions à la modélisation et la simulation de la coupe des métaux : vers un outil d'aide à la surveillance par apprentissage." Thesis, Toulouse, INPT, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020INPT0013.

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Les procédés de mise en forme par enlèvement de matière, encore appelés usinage, sont les procédés de fabrication les plus utilisés pour la production des pièces mécaniques, notamment dans les secteurs industriels tels que l’aéronautique, l’automobile, le ferroviaire, etc. Bien que ces procédés soient largement utilisés dans l’industrie, la prédiction des grandeurs caractéristiques de l’usinage n’est pas toujours précise, et un mauvais choix des conditions de coupe peut être a l’origine de l’usure anormale de l’outil, voire de la dégradation de la qualité de la pièce usinée. La simulation fine des grandeurs de l’usinage, en vue de la détection des anomalies, est un bon exemple de cette problématique, car représentative du problème général d’optimisation de la coupe des métaux pour obtenir une précision de coupe et anticiper l’usure rapide des outils. Cette thèse est une contribution a la modélisation et a la simulation de la coupe des métaux, en vue d’une aide a la décision aux entreprises de fabrication de pièces mécaniques, basée sur l’extraction des connaissances a partir des données simulées. Une implémentation efficiente d'un modèle analytique de coupe orthogonale de métaux, capable de prédire les paramètres de coupe en un temps réduit a été proposée. La performance de ce modèle a été étudiée en comparant ses prédictions avec les données d’usinage de l’acier 1045 et de l’acier au carbone, disponibles dans la littérature. En exploitant la rapidité de la résolution obtenue à partir de l’implémentation proposée, une grande quantité de données simulant des conditions réelles de coupe a été générée, et a permis d’élaborer une démarche de surveillance de l’usinage, basée sur une méthode d’apprentissage profond non supervisée. La mise en œuvre avec les données simulées a permis de mettre en exergue la capacité de la démarche de détection proposée a identifier les combinaisons de valeurs des paramètres d’entrée (du modèle analytique de coupe) susceptibles de provoquer une température interne anormalement élevée ; celle-ci a en effet été considérée dans la thèse comme indicateur de santé du système d’usinage. L'implémentation du modèle d'apprentissage proposé a donné un taux de justesse de 99,96 % et une précision de 96 %, traduisant ainsi sa capacité à prédire efficacement le résultat
Shaping processes by material removal, also known as machining, are the manufacturing processes most commonly used for the production of mechanical parts, particularly in industrial sectors such as aeronautics, automotive, railways, etc. Although these processes are widely used in industry, the prediction of the characteristic sizes of the machining process is not always accurate, and a poor choice of cutting conditions can lead to abnormal tool wear or even to a deterioration in the quality of the machined part. The fine simulation of machining parameters, aiming at detecting anomalies, is a good example of this problem, as it represents the general problem of optimizing metal cutting to obtain cutting accuracy and anticipate rapid tool wear. This thesis is a contribution to the modelling and simulation of metal cutting, with a view to assisting mechanical parts manufacturing companies in their decision-making, based on knowledge extraction from simulated data. An efficient implementation of an analytical model of orthogonal cutting of metals, able to predict cutting parameters in a reduced time was proposed. The performance of this model was studied by comparing its predictions with the 1045 and carbon steel machining data that are available in the literature. By using the high speed resolution obtained from the proposed implementation, a large quantity of data simulating real cutting conditions was generated, and allowed the elaboration of a machining monitoring approach, based on a deep unsupervised learning method. The implementation with the simulated data highlighted the ability of the proposed detection approach to identify combinations of input parameter values (from the analytical cutting model) that could generate an abnormally high internal temperature; this was considered in the thesis as an indicator of the health of the machining system. Implementation of the proposed learning model gave an accuracy of 99,96 % and a precision of 96%, reflecting its ability to effectively predict the outcome

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34

El-Asrag, Hossam Abd El-Raouf. "Large Eddy Simulation Subgrid Model for Soot Prediction." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/14652.

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Soot prediction in realistic systems is one of the most challenging problems in theoretical and applied combustion. Soot formation as a chemical process is very complicated and not fully understood up to the moment. The major difficulty stems from the chemical complexity of the soot formation processes as well as its strong coupling with the other thermochemical and fluid processes that occur simultaneously. Soot is a major byproduct of incomplete combustion, having a strong impact on the environment, as well as the combustion efficiency. Therefore, it needs to be predicted in realistic configurations in an accurate and yet computationally efficient way. In the current study, a new soot formation subgrid model is developed and reported here. The new model is designed to be used within the context of the Large Eddy Simulation (LES) framework, combined with Linear Eddy Mixing (LEM) as a subgrid combustion model. The final model can be applied equally to premixed and non-premixed flames over any required geometry and flow conditions in the free, the transition, and the continuum regimes. The soot dynamics is predicted using a Method of Moments approach with Lagrangian Interpolative Closure (MOMIC) for the fractional moments. Since, no prior knowledge of the particles distribution is required, the model is generally applicable. The effect of radiation is introduced as an optically thin model. As a validation the model is first applied to a non-premixed non-sooting flame, then a set of canonically premixed flames. Finally, the model is validated against a non-premixed jet sooting flame. Good results are predicted with reasonable accuracy.

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35

Ishak, Asnor Muizan. "Hydrological simulation aided by numerical weather prediction model." Thesis, University of Bristol, 2012. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.559471.

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In many water resources and hydrological projects, it is not always possible to get access to in-situ long-term time series weather measurements, especially for ungauged catchments. Even with gauged catchments, it is common that only rain gauge and river level data are available; other weather variables such as solar radiation, wind speed, surface temperature, surface air pressure and relative humidity are usually missing and if available are generally not in continuous form. These weather variables are basic building blocks of the global hydrological cycle that includes evapotranspiration (ET 0) and runoff estimation. The ET 0 and runoff can be estimated from the Penman-Monteith equation and rainfall runoff modeling respectively. This thesis explored a potential application of downscaled global reanalysis weather data using Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model 5 (MMS). MMS is able to downscale the global weather data down to a much finer resolution in space and time for use in local hydrological investigations. The exploration of downscaling the ERA-40 reanalysis data to the Brue catchment in Southwest England and the assessment of the relevant weather variables in comparison with those measured at the ground was described in the thesis. However, there is a problem in using these selected weather variables in hydrological processes due to uncertainties obtained from the mesoscale modelling. Therefore, this thesis focused on the improvement of the weather variables from the dynamical downscaling and statistical modeling. The improvement of dynamic downscaling with the MMS cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) by changing the horizontal and vertical resolutions are presented in this thesis for rainfall estimation. Meanwhile, the error correction with statistical models is an attempt to hybridize MMS with two regression models ( the multiple linear regression (MLR) and the nonlinear regression (NLR)) and two artificial intelligence systems (the artificial neural networks (ANNs) and the support vector machines (SVMs)). This exploration is to tackle the errors between the MMS downscaled and observed data in addition to other MMS derived hydro- meteorological parameters. The hold-out validation with a forward selection method was employed as an input variable selection procedure to examine the model generalization errors in these statistical models. Upon the implementation of the error correction technique of weather variables, a comparative study of runoff simulation via the PDM model was completed between the MMS downscaled, corrected and observed data. This thesis also presents a sensitivity analysis of six weather variables to ET 0 estimation and runoff simulation through various combinations of the Penrnan-Monteith equation and Probability Distributed Model (PDM}inputs. Finally, by this assessment of several case studies in this thesis, it has shown that the enhanced MMS modeling scheme with the correction approaches substantially improves the forecasted weather variables over the study area which is important for the hydrological processes.

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Smit, Jacobus Petrus Johannes. "The quantification of prediction uncertainty associated with water quality models using Monte Carlo Simulation." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/85814.

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Thesis (MEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2013.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Water Quality Models are mathematical representations of ecological systems and they play a major role in the planning and management of water resources and aquatic environments. Important decisions concerning capital investment and environmental consequences often rely on the results of Water Quality Models and it is therefore very important that decision makers are aware and understand the uncertainty associated with these models. The focus of this study was on the use of Monte Carlo Simulation for the quantification of prediction uncertainty associated with Water Quality Models. Two types of uncertainty exist: Epistemic Uncertainty and Aleatory Uncertainty. Epistemic uncertainty is a result of a lack of knowledge and aleatory uncertainty is due to the natural variability of an environmental system. It is very important to distinguish between these two types of uncertainty because the analysis of a model’s uncertainty depends on it. Three different configurations of Monte Carlo Simulation in the analysis of uncertainty were discussed and illustrated: Single Phase Monte Carlo Simulation (SPMCS), Two Phase Monte Carlo Simulation (TPMCS) and Parameter Monte Carlo Simulation (PMCS). Each configuration of Monte Carlo Simulation has its own objective in the analysis of a model’s uncertainty and depends on the distinction between the types of uncertainty. As an experiment, a hypothetical river was modelled using the Streeter-Phelps model and synthetic data was generated for the system. The generation of the synthetic data allowed for the experiment to be performed under controlled conditions. The modelling protocol followed in the experiment included two uncertainty analyses. All three types of Monte Carlo Simulations were used in these uncertainty analyses to quantify the model’s prediction uncertainty in fulfilment of their different objectives. The first uncertainty analysis, known as the preliminary uncertainty analysis, was performed to take stock of the model’s situation concerning uncertainty before any effort was made to reduce the model’s prediction uncertainty. The idea behind the preliminary uncertainty analysis was that it would help in further modelling decisions with regards to calibration and parameter estimation experiments. Parameter uncertainty was reduced by the calibration of the model. Once parameter uncertainty was reduced, the second uncertainty analysis, known as the confirmatory uncertainty analysis, was performed to confirm that the uncertainty associated with the model was indeed reduced. The two uncertainty analyses were conducted in exactly the same way. In conclusion to the experiment, it was illustrated how the quantification of the model’s prediction uncertainty aided in the calculation of a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL). The Margin of Safety (MOS) included in the TMDL could be determined based on scientific information provided by the uncertainty analysis. The total MOS assigned to the TMDL was -35% of the mean load allocation for the point source. For the sake of simplicity load allocations from non-point sources were disregarded.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Watergehalte modelle is wiskundige voorstellings van ekologiese sisteme en speel ’n belangrike rol in die beplanning en bestuur van waterhulpbronne en wateromgewings. Belangrike besluite rakende finansiële beleggings en besluite rakende die omgewing maak dikwels staat op die resultate van watergehalte modelle. Dit is dus baie belangrik dat besluitnemers bewus is van die onsekerhede verbonde met die modelle en dit verstaan. Die fokus van hierdie studie het berus op die gebruik van die Monte Carlo Simulasie om die voorspellingsonsekerhede van watergehalte modelle te kwantifiseer. Twee tipes onsekerhede bestaan: Epistemologiese onsekerheid en toeval afhangende onsekerheid. Epistemologiese onsekerheid is die oorsaak van ‘n gebrek aan kennis terwyl toeval afhangende onsekerheid die natuurlike wisselvalligheid in ’n natuurlike omgewing behels. Dit is belangrik om te onderskei tussen hierdie twee tipes onsekerhede aangesien die analise van ’n model se onsekerheid hiervan afhang. Drie verskillende rangskikkings van Monte Carlo Simulasies in die analise van die onsekerhede word bespreek en geïllustreer: Enkel Fase Monte Carlo Simulasie (SPMCS), Dubbel Fase Monte Carlo Simulasie (TPMCS) en Parameter Monte Carlo Simulasie (PMCS). Elke rangskikking van Monte Carlo Simulasie het sy eie doelwit in die analise van ’n model se onsekerheid en hang af van die onderskeiding tussen die twee tipes onsekerhede. As eksperiment is ’n hipotetiese rivier gemodelleer deur gebruik te maak van die Streeter-Phelps teorie en sintetiese data is vir die rivier gegenereer. Die sintetiese data het gesorg dat die eksperiment onder beheerde toestande kon plaasvind. Die protokol in die eksperiment het twee onsekerheids analises ingesluit. Al drie die rangskikkings van die Monte Carlo Simulasie is gebruik in hierdie analises om die voorspellingsonsekerheid van die model te kwantifiseer en hul doelwitte te bereik. Die eerste analise, die voorlopige onsekerheidsanalise, is uitgevoer om die model se situasie met betrekking tot die onsekerheid op te som voor enige stappe geneem is om die model se voorspellings onsekerheid te probeer verminder. Die idee agter die voorlopige onsekerheidsanalise was dat dit sou help in verdere modelleringsbesluite ten opsigte van kalibrasie en die skatting van parameters. Onsekerhede binne die parameters is verminder deur die model te kalibreer, waarna die tweede onsekerheidsanalise uitgevoer is. Hierdie analise word die bevestigingsonsekerheidsanalise genoem en word uitgevoer met die doel om vas te stel of die onsekerheid geassosieer met die model wel verminder is. Die twee tipes analises word op presies dieselfde manier toegepas. In die afloop tot die eksperiment, is gewys hoe die resultate van ’n onsekerheidsanalise gebruik is in die berekening van ’n totale maksimum daaglikse belading (TMDL) vir die rivier. Die veiligheidgrens (MOS) ingesluit in die TMDL kon vasgestel word deur die gebruik van wetenskaplike kennis wat voorsien is deur die onsekerheidsanalise. Die MOS het bestaan uit -35% van die gemiddelde toegekende lading vir puntbelasting van besoedeling in die rivier. Om die eksperiment eenvoudig te hou is verspreide laste van besoedeling nie gemodelleer nie.

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37

Echavarria, Gregory Maria Angelica. "Predictive Data-Derived Bayesian Statistic-Transport Model and Simulator of Sunken Oil Mass." Scholarly Repository, 2010. http://scholarlyrepository.miami.edu/oa_dissertations/471.

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Sunken oil is difficult to locate because remote sensing techniques cannot as yet provide views of sunken oil over large areas. Moreover, the oil may re-suspend and sink with changes in salinity, sediment load, and temperature, making deterministic fate models difficult to deploy and calibrate when even the presence of sunken oil is difficult to assess. For these reasons, together with the expense of field data collection, there is a need for a statistical technique integrating limited data collection with stochastic transport modeling. Predictive Bayesian modeling techniques have been developed and demonstrated for exploiting limited information for decision support in many other applications. These techniques brought to a multi-modal Lagrangian modeling framework, representing a near-real time approach to locating and tracking sunken oil driven by intrinsic physical properties of field data collected following a spill after oil has begun collecting on a relatively flat bay bottom. Methods include (1) development of the conceptual predictive Bayesian model and multi-modal Gaussian computational approach based on theory and literature review; (2) development of an object-oriented programming and combinatorial structure capable of managing data, integration and computation over an uncertain and highly dimensional parameter space; (3) creating a new bi-dimensional approach of the method of images to account for curved shoreline boundaries; (4) confirmation of model capability for locating sunken oil patches using available (partial) real field data and capability for temporal projections near curved boundaries using simulated field data; and (5) development of a stand-alone open-source computer application with graphical user interface capable of calibrating instantaneous oil spill scenarios, obtaining sets maps of relative probability profiles at different prediction times and user-selected geographic areas and resolution, and capable of performing post-processing tasks proper of a basic GIS-like software. The result is a predictive Bayesian multi-modal Gaussian model, SOSim (Sunken Oil Simulator) Version 1.0rc1, operational for use with limited, randomly-sampled, available subjective and numeric data on sunken oil concentrations and locations in relatively flat-bottomed bays. The SOSim model represents a new approach, coupling a Lagrangian modeling technique with predictive Bayesian capability for computing unconditional probabilities of mass as a function of space and time. The approach addresses the current need to rapidly deploy modeling capability without readily accessible information on ocean bottom currents. Contributions include (1) the development of the apparently first pollutant transport model for computing unconditional relative probabilities of pollutant location as a function of time based on limited available field data alone; (2) development of a numerical method of computing concentration profiles subject to curved, continuous or discontinuous boundary conditions; (3) development combinatorial algorithms to compute unconditional multimodal Gaussian probabilities not amenable to analytical or Markov-Chain Monte Carlo integration due to high dimensionality; and (4) the development of software modules, including a core module containing the developed Bayesian functions, a wrapping graphical user interface, a processing and operating interface, and the necessary programming components that lead to an open-source, stand-alone, executable computer application (SOSim - Sunken Oil Simulator). Extensions and refinements are recommended, including the addition of capability for accepting available information on bathymetry and maybe bottom currents as Bayesian prior information, the creation of capability of modeling continuous oil releases, and the extension to tracking of suspended oil (3-D).

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38

Gillett, A. G. "Modelling the response of winter wheat to different environments : a parsimonious approach." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 1997. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.339658.

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39

Kenimer, Ann Lee. "A computer simulation model for predicting pesticide losses from agricultural lands." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 1987. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/45817.

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A field scale model for predicting the surface losses of pesticides (Pesticide Losses In Erosion and Runoff Simulator, PLIERS) was developed. PLIERS accounts for pesticide losses by degradation and volatilization, the washoff of pesticides from plant canopy and surface residue, the adsorption and desorption of pesticides to and from soil particles, and the movement of pesticides in the dissolved and adsorbed phases. Hydrologic data are generated by the comprehensive watershed model, FESHM; which contains an extended sediment detachment and transport algorithrn. PLIERS uses first order rate equations to describe degradation and volatilization, and pesticide washoff. The adsorption of pesticides to individual particle size classes is estimated using the Freundlich equation.

Movement of atrazine and 2,4-D in runoff and sediment was measured on twelve field plots under simulated rainfall. The plots were treated with conventional or no-tillage in combination with one of three residue levels (0, 750, and 1500 kg/ha). Runoff and sediment losses were found to increase with decreasing residue cover for both tillage systems. NoÂ·till reduced sediment loss and total runoff volume by 98 and 92 percent, respectively, compared to conventional tillage. Concentrations of atrazine and 2,4-D ir1 runoff and sediment were greater from the no-till plots than from the conventional plots but the total losses were less. Both pesticides were carried predominately in the dissolved phase. Averaged over all plots, the atrazine losses were 2.9 percent of applied amount for conventional tillage and 0.3 percent for no-tillage. The corresponding values for 2,4-D were 0.3 percent and 0.02 percent.

PLIERS was validated using data from the rainfall simulator field plot studies. Agreement between predicted and observed data was very good for dissolved pesticide losses and satisfactory for adsorbed pesticide losses. In addition, the effects of tillage type and residue level were reflected in PLIERS predictions. PLIERS shows great potential as a flexible planning tool since it could be used with any comprehensive hydrologic model and is able to predict the losses of pesticides under various field conditions.

Master of Science

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40

Walker, Jens. "A motion cueing model for mining and forestry simulator platforms based on Model Predictive Control." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Institutionen för fysik, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-98685.

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Oryx Simulations produce simulators for mining and forestry machinery used for educational and promotional purposes. The simulators use motion platforms to reflect how the vehicle moves within the simulator. This platform tilts and accelerates the driver in order to enhance the experience. Previously a classical washout filter algorithm has been used to control the platform which leaves something to be desired regarding how well it reflects the vehicles movement, how easy it is to tune and how it handles the limits of the platform. This thesis aims to produce a model that accurately reflects angles, velocities and accelerations while in the mean time respecting the limits of the platform. In addition to this the developed model should be easy to modify and tune. This is achieved using so-called Model Predictive Control which achieves the wanted behaviour by predicting how the platform will move based on its current state while implementing the constraints of the platform directly into the model. Since all of the parameters in the model are actual physical quantities, this makes the model easier to tune. A key component in this solution is the so-called tilt coordination which consists of substituting a lateral/longitudinal acceleration with the acceleration of gravity by tilting the driver. Constructing and implementing this model in Matlab we verify it by using data extracted from the simulator environment. We see that the parameters consisting of angles, rotational velocities and linear accelerations are tracked very well while respecting the constraints for the platform, constraints that can be easily changed to fit the current simulator.We also see that the model successfully implements tilt coordination into the behaviour of the platform. This model performs extraordinarily well in theory, what remains is to implement this to the motion platform and fine-tune it.
Oryx Simulations tillverkar simulatorer i huvudsak för gruv- och skogsindustrinvilket används i utbildnings- och marknadsföringssyfte. Simulatorerna använder en röorelseplattform för att spegla hur fordonet i simulatormiljön rör sig. Denna plattform lutar och accelererar föraren för att förstarka upplevelsen. Tidigare har ett så kallat klassiskt washout-filter använts för att kontrollera plattformen som lämnar en del i övrigt att onska vad gäller hur väl fordonets rörelser speglas, hur lätt det ar att justera samt hur det hanterar plattformens begränsningar. Detta projekt ämnar producera en modell som väl speglar vinklar,hastigheter och accelerationer samtidigt som den respekterar plattformens gränser. I tillägg till detta bör modellen vara enkel att modifiera och justera. Detta uppnås genom så kallad Model Predictive Control som förutsager hur plattformen kommer röra sig utifrån dess aktuella tillstånd samtidigt som den respekterar de tvång som finns på plattformen direkt i modellen. Då alla parametrar i modellen är faktiska fysiska kvantiteter blir modellen märkbart lättare att justera. En viktig komponent i denna lösning är så kallad tilt coordination vilket består i att substituera lateral/longtudinell acceleration med en komposant av tyngdaccelerationen genom att luta föraren. Denna modell konstrueras och implementeras i Matlab och verifieras genom att använda extraherat data från den simulerade miljön. Vi kan se att parametrarna som består av vinklar, rotationella hastigheter och linjära accelerationer speglas väldigt väl, samtidigt som tvången på plattformen respekteras. Dessa tvång kan enkelt modieras for att passa den aktuella simulatorn. Vi ser även att modellen framgångsrikt implementerar tilt coordination i plattformens beteende. I teorin har denna modell väldigt bra prestanda; vad som kvarstår är att implementera den på en rörelseplattform och finjustera modellen.

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41

Shi, Han. "Numerical simulations and predictive models of undrained penetration in soft soils." Texas A&M University, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/2555.

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There are two aspects in this study: cylinder penetrations and XBP (Expendable Bottom Penetrometer) interpretations. The cylinder studies firstly investigate the relationship between the soil resisting force and penetration depth by a series of rateindependent finite element analyses of pre-embedded penetration depths, and validate the results by upper and lower bound solutions from classical plasticity theory. Furthermore, strain rate effects are modeled by finite element simulations within a framework of rate-dependent plasticity. With all forces acting on the cylinder estimated, penetration depths are predicted from simple equations of motion for a single particle. Comparisons to experimental results show reasonable agreement between model predictions and measurements. The XBP studies follow the same methodology in investigating the soil shearing resistance as a function of penetration depth and velocity by finite element analyses. With the measurements of time decelerations during penetration of the XBP, sediment shear strength profile is inferred from a single particle kinetic model. The predictions compare favorably with experimental measurements by vane shear tests.

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42

Fuenzalida, González Octavio Francisco. "Model predictive control of froth flotation processes aided by a dynamic simulator." Tesis, Universidad de Chile, 2018. http://repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/150812.

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Magíster en Ciencias de la Ingeniería, Mención Metalurgia Extractiva
A model and simulation based methodology is used to implement a multi-layer model predictive control (MPC) strategy for a rougher row of mechanical flotation cells. Pilot-scale tests are done to calibrate and validate both the process simulation models and the predictive simulation models. The hierarchical control strategy considers three layers: orchestrator, advanced control and basic control; is deployed, in a commercial control system and, tested in a pilot row. The orchestrator is divided in two: the row supervisor and the row optimizer. The row supervisor monitors and manages all the other components of the control structure. The optimizer is a MPC-based controller which optimal criterion is separation efficiency (SE) and; according to recent developments, that happens with a balanced mass-pull profile along the row. The advanced control layer includes individual cell MPC in coordination with a symbolic MPC for all pulp levels along the row. The basic control layer consists of single loop proportional and integral (PI) controllers and their corresponding valves and instruments. After simulation, the control layers are successively downloaded in an industrial controller, starting from the basic control layer and ending with orchestrator s algorithms. Then, the control structure provides good disturbance rejection against feed variabilities. Regarding the orchestrator, it supports smooth and logical transitions between control modes as well as good abnormal situation management. This work shows promising results of the power of integrated process control design and model based methodologies; allowing earlier and better selection and validation of: flotation machine technology, cutting edge instrumentation and, advanced control structure and strategies. Given pre-defined economic assumptions, estimated results are obtained for the simulated industrial scenario: almost 40 percent reduction of capital expenditure (Capex), with almost the same operational expenditure (Opex). From the total Capex reduction, almost 80% is due to integrated process and control design (IPCD), being the other 20% a consequence of advanced process control and optimization structure and strategies. MPC-based control algorithms show their potential to have a main role in mineral processing processes feasibility and optimality.

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43

Stockdale, Timothy N. "Simulation and prediction of tropical SST with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model." Thesis, University of Oxford, 1992. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.305416.

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44

Stenberg, Patric. "Computational models for the prediction of intestinal membrane permeability." Doctoral thesis, Uppsala : Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis : Univ.-bibl. [distributör], 2001. http://publications.uu.se/theses/91-554-4934-4/.

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45

Hoogendoorn, Corné. "A statistical dynamic cardiac atlas for the virtual physiological human: construction and application." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/132632.

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This thesis is centered on the construction of a cardiac atlas to serve as a common reference frame in the Virtual Physiological Human (VPH). The construction covers the entire construction pipeline, starting from a set of 3D+t multislice computed tomography images, then performing a spatial normalization of these images, segmentation of the synthesized mean image, multi-structure meshing, and finally mapping of the mesh back to the population of images. In addition, two applications are presented in this thesis. First, the atlas is used to frame a spatio-temporal model of cardiac morphology which models the variability along both 'axes' simultaneously. Such a unified approach should be preferable over existing methods, which decouple the two sources of variation and then model them separately, in isolation. Second, the proposed atlas is applied to develop an acceleration technique for performing personalized simulation of cardiac electrophysiology (EP). The prior knowledge encapsulated in our atlas is used, in conjunction with a numerical solver of cardiac EP, to build a statistical model linking cardiac morphology with the steady states of myocardial cell models that pre condition detailed cardiac EP simulations. This application puts the proposed dynamic cardiac atlas in the context of VPH-related simulations, of which the computational costs are currently greatly in excess of what is acceptable for their adoption in current clinical practice.
Esta tesis está centrada en la construcción de un atlas cardiaco, para servir como marco común de referencia en el Virtual Physiological Human (VPH). La construcción consiste en la trayectoria completa, empezando con un conjunto de imágenes 3D+t de tomografía computacional multi-corte, y entonces hacer una normalización espacial de las imágenes, segmentación de la imagen promedio sintetizada, un mallado multi-estructura, y finalmente la transformación de la malla a la población de imágenes. Adicionalmente, la tesis presenta dos aplicaciones del atlas. Primero, el atlas se usa para enmarcar un modelo espacio-temporal de la morfología cardiaca que modela la variación a lo largo de ambos 'ejes' simultáneamente. Tal propuesta debe ser preferible sobre otros m\'etodos existentes, los cuales desacoplan las dos fuentes de variación para modelarlas separadamente, en isolación. Segundo, el atlas está aplicado al desarrollo de una técnica de aceleración para simulaciones personalizadas de electrofisiología (EF) cardiaca. El conocimiento previo encapsulado en nuestro atlas se usa, en conjunto con un solver de EF cardiaca, para construir un modelo estadístico conectando morfología cardiaca con los steady states de modelos celulares del miocardio que precondicionan a simulaciones detalladas de EF cardiaca. Esta aplicación posiciona el propuesto atlas dinámico cardiaco en el contexto de simulaciones relacionadas al VPH, cuyo costo computacional actual está en gran exceso de lo aceptable para su adopción en la práctica clínica de hoy en día.

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46

Lancaster, Joseph Paul Jr. "Predicting the behavior of robotic swarms in discrete simulation." Diss., Kansas State University, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2097/18980.

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Doctor of Philosophy
Department of Computing and Information Sciences
David Gustafson
We use probabilistic graphs to predict the location of swarms over 100 steps in simulations in grid worlds. One graph can be used to make predictions for worlds of different dimensions. The worlds are constructed from a single 5x5 square pattern, each square of which may be either unoccupied or occupied by an obstacle or a target. Simulated robots move through the worlds avoiding the obstacles and tagging the targets. The interactions between the robots and the robots and the environment lead to behavior that, even in deterministic simulations, can be difficult to anticipate. The graphs capture the local rate and direction of swarm movement through the pattern. The graphs are used to create a transition matrix, which along with an occupancy matrix, can be used to predict the occupancy in the patterns in the 100 steps using 100 matrix multiplications. In the future, the graphs could be used to predict the movement of physical swarms though patterned environments such as city blocks in applications such as disaster response search and rescue. The predictions could assist in the design and deployment of such swarms and help rule out undesirable behavior.

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47

Göktepe, Serdar. "Micro-macro approaches to rubbery and glassy polymers : predictive micromechanically-based models and simulations." Stuttgart Institut für Mechanik (Bauwesen) der Universität Stuttgart, 2007. http://elib.uni-stuttgart.de/opus/volltexte/2007/3342/.

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48

Tang, Youmin. "ENSO simulation and prediction using hybrid coupled models with data assimilation." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2001. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk3/ftp04/NQ61182.pdf.

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49

Rastogi, Mayank Carleton University Dissertation Engineering Civil. "Development of simulation models for predicting heavy vehicle performance on grade." Ottawa, 1989.

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50

Davies, Graham Mark. "Molecular simulation of adsorption equilibrium in microporous solids : model development and performance prediction." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1999. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.624341.

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