Добірка наукової літератури з теми "Posture Measurement"

We construct human posture probability density based on actual human motion measurement. Human postures in daily life were measured for two days by having subjects wear a mechanical motion capture device. Accumulated human postures were converted to unit quaternions to guarantee the uniqueness of posture representation. To represent probability density effectively, we propose eigenpostures for posture compression and use the kernel-based reduced set density estimator (RSDE) to reduce the number of posture samples and construction of posture probability density. Before compression, unit quaternions were converted to Euclidean space by logarithmic mapping. After conversion, postures were compressed in Euclidean space. Applying constructed human posture probability density for unlikely posture detection and motion segmentation, we verified its effectiveness for many different applications.

Abstract Pressure garments for medical had been widely used to enhance the recovery after an operation, for treatment of arthritis, deep vein thrombosis, leg ulcers, varicose veins or hypertrophic scars. This research aims to develop a contact force measuring approach to measure glove-skin interfacial pressure. With the aid of a force measuring sensors system, it is easier to study the efficiency of pressure garments. Besides, occupational therapists can also design a user-friendly pressure garment that is comfortable and easy to donning and doffing, especially for children. Two types of flexible force sensors were used to measure the glove-skin interfacial pressure using two types of pressure therapy gloves. Pressure therapy glove is selected to represent pressure garments. The measuring sensors were placed at three different locations on the dorsal side of the hand, and the glove-skin interfacial pressure was measured in two different postures, which is full fist and tabletop posture. It was found that different postures had led to different interfacial pressure. The glove-skin interfacial pressure was found to be greater during full fist posture compared to tabletop posture. This show that the applied glove-skin interfacial pressure is affected by postures and movement.

Workers perform manual handling activities with sitting and standing work postures. In sitting work posture, this activity is performed using a 15-cm-long spade, so the workers must bend both their bodies and feet, meanwhile in standing work posture, workers use stainless steel squeegee. Workers on both postures complain of pain but on different parts of the body. Limited work facilities cause this handling activity uses body muscle repetitively. The aim of this study is to obtain an ergonomic work facility so that workers can use standing work posture with minimal pain complaints. The methods used are arterial pulse measurement, pain complaints measurement, anthropometry measurement, and designing handling device using QFD method. The subjects in this study are 6 male workers in a steel company producing threaded steel. The handling device stands 77.9 cm tall with a 15° slope so that silicomanganese can move down by taking advantage of the vibration. Workers only direct silicomanganese into the sack in standing work posture, so that performance can increase.

Introduction: Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a progressive disease that causes long-term breathing problems. The reliable monitoring of respiratory rate (RR) is very important for the treatment and management of COPD. Based on inkjet printing technology, we have developed a stretchable and wearable sensor that can accurately measure RR on normal subjects. Currently, there is a lack of comprehensive evaluation of stretchable sensors in the monitoring of RR on COPD patients. We aimed to investigate the measurement accuracy of our sensor on COPD patients. Methodology: Thirty-five patients (Mean ± SD of age: 55.25 ± 13.76 years) in different stages of COPD were recruited. The measurement accuracy of our inkjet-printed (IJPT) sensor was evaluated at different body postures (i.e., standing, sitting at 90°, and lying at 45°) on COPD patients. The RR recorded by the IJPT sensor was compared with that recorded by the reference e-Health sensor using paired T-test and Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Analysis of variation (ANOVA) was performed to investigate if there was any significant effect of individual difference or posture on the measurement error. Statistical significance was defined as p-value less than 0.05. Results: There was no significant difference between the RR measurements collected by the IJPT sensor and the e-Health reference sensor overall and in three postures (p > 0.05 in paired T-tests and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests). The sitting posture had the least measurement error of −0.0542 ± 1.451 bpm. There was no significant effect of posture or individual difference on the measurement error or relative measurement error (p > 0.05 in ANOVA). Conclusion: The IJPT sensor can accurately measure the RR of COPD patients at different body postures, which provides the possibility for reliable monitoring of RR on COPD patients.

Introduction: Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a progressive disease that causes long-term breathing problems. The reliable monitoring of respiratory rate (RR) is very important for the treatment and management of COPD. Based on inkjet printing technology, we have developed a stretchable and wearable sensor that can accurately measure RR on normal subjects. Currently, there is a lack of comprehensive evaluation of stretchable sensors in the monitoring of RR on COPD patients. We aimed to investigate the measurement accuracy of our sensor on COPD patients. Methodology: Thirty-five patients (Mean ± SD of age: 55.25 ± 13.76 years) in different stages of COPD were recruited. The measurement accuracy of our inkjet-printed (IJPT) sensor was evaluated at different body postures (i.e., standing, sitting at 90°, and lying at 45°) on COPD patients. The RR recorded by the IJPT sensor was compared with that recorded by the reference e-Health sensor using paired T-test and Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Analysis of variation (ANOVA) was performed to investigate if there was any significant effect of individual difference or posture on the measurement error. Statistical significance was defined as p-value less than 0.05. Results: There was no significant difference between the RR measurements collected by the IJPT sensor and the e-Health reference sensor overall and in three postures (p > 0.05 in paired T-tests and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests). The sitting posture had the least measurement error of −0.0542 ± 1.451 bpm. There was no significant effect of posture or individual difference on the measurement error or relative measurement error (p > 0.05 in ANOVA). Conclusion: The IJPT sensor can accurately measure the RR of COPD patients at different body postures, which provides the possibility for reliable monitoring of RR on COPD patients.

<span>The posture monitoring system monitors the posture changes of the upper body and the spinal cord applying to ophthalmologists while operating the slit lamp. The motivation to the pursuit of this system is to relate posture changes while in a static sitting posture to the spinal deviation from the g-line. Often times, the spinal deviation from the g-line is classified as bad posture because of the shift in weight distribution on the spine causing pain and discomfort in certain areas of the spine. This paper presents the design concept, the development process and the working principle of the posture monitoring system using Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) sensor. The raw measurement data obtained from human trials is tabulated and converted into a graphical representation in which all postures can be identified and distinguished by referring the relative wave pattern. The procedure is important in the improvement on the posture monitoring system for the human trials on the ophthalmologist in future.</span>

We tested the reliability of noninvasive cardiac output (CO) measurement in different body positions by pulse contour analysis (COpc) by using a transmission line model (K. H. Wesseling, B. De Wit, J. A. P. Weber, and N. T. Smith. Adv. Cardiol. Phys.5, Suppl. II: 16–52, 1983). Acetylene rebreathing (COrebr) was used as a reference method. Twelve subjects (age 21–34 yr) were studied: 1) six in whom COrebr and COpc were measured in the standing and 6° head-down tilt (HDT) postures and 2) six in whom CO was measured in the 30° HDT, supine, 30° head up-tilt (HUT), and 70° HUT postures on a tilt table. The COrebr-to-COpcratio in (near) the supine position during rebreathing was used as the calibration factor for COpcmeasurements. Calibrated COpc(COcal sup) consistently overestimated CO in the upright posture. The drop in CO with upright posture was underestimated by ∼50%. COcal sup and COrebr values did not differ in the 30° HDT position. Changes in the COrebr-to-COpcratio are highly variable among subjects in response to a change in posture. Therefore, COpc must be recalibrated for each subject in each posture.

The present study involved performing an experiment to clarify whether vibration measurement values on the tool handle, in accordance with ISO 5349-1, can assess risk from workplace environments. The study investigated the relationship between the vibration magnitude of a hand-held electric drill with different operating postures. The experiment included the determination of the participant’s temporary threshold shift (TTS) of vibrotactile perception threshold (VPT) at the tip of the index finger. The experimental hypothesis was that the vibration measurement values on the tool handle, in accordance with the ISO 5349-1 standard, include the effect of posture on the vibration measurements obtained despite the variation in posture and test participants. The hand-transmitted vibration (HTV) was applied using a hand-held electric drill applied to a pre-cast concrete paving slab substrate (600 × 600 × 50 mm, 55 MPa) using a 10 mm diameter masonry drill bit (without hammer action). The tool was operated using the right hand on twelve male subjects with three working postures (n = 36). Vibration was measured in three orthogonal directions according to the international standard ISO 5349-1 procedure. Vibration magnitudes were expressed as root-mean-square (r.m.s.) acceleration, frequency-weighted using the Wh frequency weighting. Clause 4.3 states that the characterisation of the vibration exposure is assessed from the acceleration of the surface in contact with the hand as the primary quantity. The experimental results indicate that the TTS following vibration exposure is not related to the measured vibration magnitude on the tool handle. Therefore, the automatic inclusion of posture and test participant variation is not proven. The results suggest that the vibration measurement values on the tool handle do not predict the TTS after hand-transmitted vibration in varying posture across the test participants. The research concludes that tool handle vibration measurement, in accordance with ISO 5349-1, does not properly assess the potential hazard from authentic workplace tool usage conditions of varying postures.

Back pain is a common and costly disorder affecting 80% of the population, with 80-90% of the symptoms reported to have no pathological cause and it is suggested that this non-specific low back pain can be improved by the adoption of proper posture and body mechanics during normal daily life.

Background: PostureScreen Mobile® is an app created to quickly screen posture using front and side-view photographs. There is currently a lack of evidence that establishes PostureScreen Mobile® (PSM) as a valid measure of posture. Therefore, the purpose of this preliminary study was to document the validity and reliability of PostureScreen Mobile® in assessing static standing posture. Methods: This study was an experimental trial in which the posture of 50 male participants was assessed a total of six times using two different methods: PostureScreen Mobile® and Vicon 3D motion analysis system (VIC). Postural deviations, as measured during six trials of PSM assessments (3 trials with and 3 trials without anatomical markers), were compared to the postural deviations as measured using the VIC as the criterion measure. Measurement of lateral displacement on the x-axis (shift) and rotation on the y-axis (tilt) were made of the head, shoulders, and hips in the frontal plane. Measurement of forward/rearward displacement on the Z-axis (shift) of the head, shoulders, hips, and knees were made in the sagittal plane. Validity was evaluated by comparing the PSM measurements of shift and tilt of each body part to that of the VIC. Reliability was evaluated by comparing the variance of PSM measurements to the variance of VIC measurements. The statistical model employed the Bayesian framework and consisted of the scaled product of the likelihood of the data given the parameters and prior probability densities for each of the parameters. Results: PSM tended to overestimate VIC postural tilt and shift measurements in the frontal plane and underestimate VIC postural shift measurements in the sagittal plane. Use of anatomical markers did not universally improve postural measurements with PSM, and in most cases, the variance of postural measurements using PSM exceeded that of VIC. The patterns in the intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) suggest high trial-to-trial variation in posture. Conclusions: We conclude that until research further establishes the validity and reliability of the PSM app, it should not be used in research or clinical applications when accurate postural assessments are necessary or when serial measurements of posture will be performed. We suggest that the PSM be used by health and fitness professionals as a screening tool, as described by the manufacturer. Due to the suspected trial-to-trial variation in posture, we question the usefulness of a single postural assessment.

Relationships between occupational physical exposures and risks of contracting musculoskeletal disorders are still not well understood; exposure-response relationships are scarce in the musculoskeletal epidemiology literature, and many epidemiological studies, including intervention studies, fail to reach conclusive results. Insufficient exposure assessment has been pointed out as a possible explanation for this deficiency. One important aspect of assessing exposure is the selected measurement strategy; this includes issues related to the necessary number of data required to give sufficient information, and to allocation of measurement efforts, both over time and between subjects in order to achieve precise and accurate exposure estimates. These issues have been discussed mainly in the occupational hygiene literature considering chemical exposures, while the corresponding literature on biomechanical exposure is sparse. The overall aim of the present thesis was to increase knowledge on the relationship between data collection design and the resulting precision and accuracy of biomechanical exposure assessments, represented in this thesis by upper arm postures during work, data which have been shown to be relevant to disorder risk. Four papers are included in the thesis. In papers I and II, non-parametric bootstrapping was used to investigate the statistical efficiency of different strategies for distributing upper arm elevation measurements between and within working days into different numbers of measurement periods of differing durations. Paper I compared the different measurement strategies with respect to the eventual precision of estimated mean exposure level. The results showed that it was more efficient to use a higher number of shorter measurement periods spread across a working day than to use a smaller number for longer uninterrupted measurement periods, in particular if the total sample covered only a small part of the working day. Paper II evaluated sampling strategies for the purpose of determining posture variance components with respect to the accuracy and precision of the eventual variance component estimators. The paper showed that variance component estimators may be both biased and imprecise when based on sampling from small parts of working days, and that errors were larger with continuous sampling periods. The results suggest that larger posture samples than are conventionally used in ergonomics research and practice may be needed to achieve trustworthy estimates of variance components. Papers III and IV focused on method development. Paper III examined procedures for estimating statistical power when testing for a group difference in postures assessed by observation. Power determination was based either on a traditional analytical power analysis or on parametric bootstrapping, both of which accounted for methodological variance introduced by the observers to the exposure data. The study showed that repeated observations of the same video recordings may be an efficient way of increasing the power in an observation-based study, and that observations can be distributed between several observers without loss in power, provided that all observers contribute data to both of the compared groups, and that the statistical analysis model acknowledges observer variability. Paper IV discussed calibration of an inferior exposure assessment method against a superior “golden standard” method, with a particular emphasis on calibration of observed posture data against postures determined by inclinometry. The paper developed equations for bias correction of results obtained using the inferior instrument through calibration, as well as for determining the additional uncertainty of the eventual exposure value introduced through calibration. In conclusion, the results of the present thesis emphasize the importance of carefully selecting a measurement strategy on the basis of statistically well informed decisions. It is common in the literature that postural exposure is assessed from one continuous measurement collected over only a small part of a working day. In paper I, this was shown to be highly inefficient compared to spreading out the corresponding sample time across the entire working day, and the inefficiency was also obvious when assessing variance components, as shown in paper II. The thesis also shows how a well thought-out strategy for observation-based exposure assessment can reduce the effects of measurement error, both for random methodological variance (paper III) and systematic observation errors (bias) (paper IV).

Quantifying human posture and range of motion remains challenging due to the need for specific technologies, time for data collection and analysis, and space requirements. The demand for affordable and accessible human body position measurement requires alternative methods that cost less, are portable, and provide similar accuracy to expensive multi-camera systems. This thesis developed and evaluated a novel augmented reality mobile app for human posture measurement to bring marker-based body segment measurement to the point of patient contact. The augmented reality app provides live video of the person being measured, AprilTag2 fiducial markers locations in the video, processes marker data, and calculates angles and distances between markers. Results demonstrated that the mobile app can identify, track, and measure angles and distances between AprilTag2 markers attached to a human body in real-time with millimetre accuracy, thereby allowing researchers and clinicians to quantify posture measurements anywhere, at anytime.

The aim of this thesis was to develop and test a platform which was capable of measuring the developmental trajectory of postural stability and fine motor control. Moreover, the thesis set out to explore the interdependence of these motor processes through synchronous measurement of postural and fine-motor control processes. The thesis introduces an objective, fine-motor measure sensitive enough to detect gender differences in children. This system was developed further to incorporate measures of postural sway, providing objective measures of postural performance that were capable of detecting age-dependant task-based manipulations of postural stability. Further development of the platform to incorporate low-cost consumer products allowed the cost barrier to large-scale measurement of posture to be addressed. This meant that accurate, synchronous and objective measurement of postural control and fine-motor control could take place outside of the laboratory environment. The developed system was deployed in schools and this allowed an investigation into the effect of seating on postural control. The results indicated that (a) seating attenuates the differences in postural control normally observed as a function of age; (b) postural control is modulated by task demands. Finally, the relationship between postural control and fine-motor control was investigated an interdependent functional relationship was found between manual control and postural stability development.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, 2002.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 142-148).
A new type of wearable sensor for detecting fingertip touch force and finger posture is presented. Unlike traditional electronic gloves, in which sensors are embedded along the finger and on the fingerpads, this new device does not constrict finger motion and allows the fingers to directly contact the environment without obstructing the human's natural haptic senses. The fingertip touch force and finger posture are detected by measuring changes in the coloration of the fingernail; hence, the sensor is mounted on the fingernail and does not interfere with bending or touching actions. Specifically, the fingernail is instrumented with miniature light emitting diodes (LEDs) and photodetectors in order to measure changes in the reflection intensity when the fingertip is pressed against a surface or when the finger is bent. The changes in intensity are then used to determine changes in the blood volume under the fingernail, a technique termed "reflectance photoplethysmography." By arranging the LEDs and photodetectors in a spatial array, the two-dimensional pattern of blood volume can be measured and used to predict the touch force and posture. This thesis first underscores the role of the fingernail sensor as a means of indirectly detecting fingertip touch force and finger posture by measuring the internal state of the finger. Desired functionality and principles of photoplethysmography are used to create a set of design goals and guidelines for such a sensor.
(cont.) A working miniaturized prototype nail sensor is designed, built, tested, and analyzed. Based on fingertip anatomy and photographic evidence, mechanical and hemodynamic models are created in order to understand the mechanism of the blood volume change at multiple locations within the fingernail bed. These models are verified through experiment and simulation. Next, data-driven, mathematical models or filters are designed to comprehensively predict normal touching forces, shear touching forces, and finger bending based on readings from the sensor. A method to experimentally calibrate the filters is designed, implemented, and validated. Using these filters, the sensors are capable of predicting forces to within 0.5 N RMS error and posture angle to within 10 degrees RMS error. Performances of the filters are analyzed, compared, and used to suggest design guidelines for the next generation of sensors. Finally, applications to human-machine interface are discussed and tested, and potential impacts of this work on the fields of virtual reality and robotics are proposed.
by Stephen A. Mascaro.
Ph.D.

Abstract Cyclists are exposed to vibration due to road roughness. The levels of vibration that the cyclists experience have a major effect on comfort and depend on the bicycle, rider and road characteristics. It is known that the posture of the cyclist has a relevant effect on the bicycle-cyclist system vibration response. Nevertheless, this effect has been scarcely quantified. This study focuses on the measurement of the effect of body posture on comfort while riding a bicycle. A laboratory methodology based on the measurement of the impulsive response of sensitive points of the bicycle was implemented to predict the comfort of cyclists on the road. The posture on the sagittal plane was verified during the tests. The methodology was implemented to predict the comfort of two cyclists riding a city bicycle in two postures: upright and bent forward. Experimental results showed that in the bent forward posture the acceleration levels had a significant increment for the handlebar stem and a non-significant increment for the seatpost.

Abstract Improvements on the wearable fingernail sensor are presented. By measuring changes in the color pattern of the human fingernail, the sensor is capable of detecting finger posture as well as touch forces which are applied to the fingertip. The fingernail is instrumented with a fitted sensor containing arrays of miniature LEDs and photodiodes that measure the blood content underneath the nail. Dynamic pattern recognition is used to differentiate between changes due to touching and bending. Since the sensor is mounted on the fingernail, touch forces can be measured without covering the fingerpad and obstructing the human’s natural haptic sense. Similarly, finger bending can be measured without wearing a glove that hampers the motion of the fingers. This paper briefly discusses design of the sensors, and then demonstrates sensor capabilities for both touch force and posture measurement.

Review question / Objective: The primary objective of this systematic review is to compare the differences in vivo IDP between sitting and standing postures. The secondary objective of this review is to compare effect size estimates between 1) dated and more recent studies and 2) healthy and degenerated intervertebral discs. Condition being studied: Healthy adults, patients with low back pain. Eligibility criteria: Studies were included in the review if they 1) involved in vivo IDP measurement in both sitting and standing postures, 2) involved measurements with intervertebral body replacement and 3) included spinal loading data of healthy adults. Studies were excluded if they 1) investigated in vitro measurement of IDP, 2) did not report the central tendency and/or variability of the outcome of interest and 3) were letters to the editor, case studies, case series or review articles. For the relevant papers that did not provide sufficient data, we contacted the corresponding author to acquire the data.

The “Novel streaming potential (SP) and thermal sensor techniques for monitoring water and nutrient fluxes in the vadose zone” project ended Oct. 30, 2015, after an extension to complete travel and intellectual exchange of ideas and sensors. A significant component of this project was the development and testing of the Penta-needle Heat Pulse Probe (PHPP) in addition to testing of the streaming potential concept, both aimed at soil water flux determination. The PHPP was successfully completed and shown to provide soil water flux estimates down to 1 cm day⁻¹ with altered heat input and timing as well as use of larger heater needles. The PHPP was developed by Scott B. Jones at Utah State University with a plan to share sensors with Shmulik P. Friedman, the ARO collaborator. Delays in completion of the PHPP resulted in limited testing at USU and a late delivery of sensors (Sept. 2015) to Dr. Friedman. Two key aspects of the subsurface water flux sensor development that delayed the availability of the PHPP sensors were the addition of integrated electrical conductivity measurements (available in February 2015) and resolution of bugs in the microcontroller firmware (problems resolved in April 2015). Furthermore, testing of the streaming potential method with a wide variety of non-polarizable electrodes at both institutions was not successful as a practical measurement tool for water flux due to numerous sources of interference and the M.S. student in Israel terminated his program prematurely for personal reasons. In spite of these challenges, the project funded several undergraduate students building sensors and several master’s students and postdocs participating in theory and sensor development and testing. Four peer-reviewed journal articles have been published or submitted to date and six oral/poster presentations were also delivered by various authors associated with this project. We intend to continue testing the "new generation" PHPP probes at both USU and at the ARO resulting in several additional publications coming from this follow-on research. Furthermore, Jones is presently awaiting word on an internal grant application for commercialization of the PHPP at USU.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.