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Добірка наукової літератури з теми "Population forecasting Victoria Melbourne"

Автор: Grafiati

Опубліковано: 10 грудня 2022

Оновлено: 28 січня 2023

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Статті в журналах з теми "Population forecasting Victoria Melbourne"

1

Williams, Mark. "The von Neumayer legacy in Australian meteorology." Proceedings of the Royal Society of Victoria 123, no. 1 (2011): 78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/rs11078.

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Georg von Neumayer established the first formal program to take meteorological observations in Melbourne in 1858 at the Flagstaff Hill Observatory. In doing this he set the platform for a long-term climate record of Melbourne of immeasurable value to the city of Melbourne and the nation. He also helped set in train an ever expanding program of weather recording in Victoria, and around the country. This program of observing the weather then evolved into the sophisticated system which exists today. Today’s weather observation program underpins the modern weather forecasting service, which the nation depends on so much for short and longer term activities.

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2

Boneh, Tal, Gary T. Weymouth, Peter Newham, Rodney Potts, John Bally, Ann E. Nicholson, and Kevin B. Korb. "Fog Forecasting for Melbourne Airport Using a Bayesian Decision Network." Weather and Forecasting 30, no. 5 (October 1, 2015): 1218–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-15-0005.1.

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Abstract Fog events occur at Melbourne Airport, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, approximately 12 times each year. Unforecast events are costly to the aviation industry, cause disruption, and are a safety risk. Thus, there is a need to improve operational fog forecasting. However, fog events are difficult to forecast because of the complexity of the physical processes and the impact of local geography and weather elements. Bayesian networks (BNs) are a probabilistic reasoning tool widely used for prediction, diagnosis, and risk assessment in a range of application domains. Several BNs for probabilistic weather prediction have been previously reported, but to date none have included an explicit forecast decision component and none have been used for operational weather forecasting. A Bayesian decision network [Bayesian Objective Fog Forecast Information Network (BOFFIN)] has been developed for fog forecasting at Melbourne Airport based on 34 years’ worth of data (1972–2005). Parameters were calibrated to ensure that the network had equivalent or better performance to prior operational forecast methods, which led to its adoption as an operational decision support tool. The current study was undertaken to evaluate the operational use of the network by forecasters over an 8-yr period (2006–13). This evaluation shows significantly improved forecasting accuracy by the forecasters using the network, as compared with previous years. BOFFIN-Melbourne has been accepted by forecasters because of its skill, visualization, and explanation facilities, and because it offers forecasters control over inputs where a predictor is considered unreliable.

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3

Hocking, Jane S., Jessika Willis, Sepehr Tabrizi, Christopher K. Fairley, Suzanne M. Garland, and Margaret Hellard. "A chlamydia prevalence survey of young women living in Melbourne, Victoria." Sexual Health 3, no. 4 (2006): 235. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/sh06033.

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Background: To estimate the population-based chlamydia prevalence among women aged 18 to 35 years living in Melbourne, Victoria, and to assess the feasibility of using mailed urine specimens to test women. Methods: A simple random sample of 11 001 households in Melbourne was selected from the telephone directory. Participants completed telephone interviews and provided urine specimens through the mail for chlamydia testing. Urines were tested using polymerase chain reaction. Results: 11 001 households were contacted, with 1532 households identified as including eligible women; telephone interviews were completed, with 979 women giving a response rate of 64%. Six hundred and fifty-seven women provided a urine specimen with a response rate of 43%. Among sexually active women aged 18–24 years, the chlamydia prevalence was 3.7% (95% CI: 1.2%, 8.4%) and 0.2% (95% CI: 0.0%, 1.1%) among 25–35 year olds. Chlamydia prevalence increased significantly with an increasing number of male sexual partners. Conclusions: This is the first study of its kind in Australia and shows that chlamydia prevalence increases with an increasing number of male sexual partners in the last 12 months. Mailed urine specimens are feasible for conducting population-based chlamydia-prevalence surveys but it is difficult to obtain high response rates with this methodology. Public health resources should now be directed towards investigating how to reach young women at increased risk of infection, ensuring that they are tested for chlamydia.

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4

Skotnicki, M. L., P. M. Selkirk, P. Broady, K. D. Adam, and J. A. Ninham. "Dispersal of the moss Campylopus pyriformis on geothermal ground near the summits of Mount Erebus and Mount Melbourne, Victoria Land, Antarctica." Antarctic Science 13, no. 3 (September 2001): 280–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0954102001000396.

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Mount Melbourne in northern Victoria Land, Antarctica, is a glaciated 2733 m volcanic cone. The moss Compylopus pyriformis occurs on two small areas of steam-warmed snow-free ground near its summit. This moss species also occurs in temperate regions world-wide, but has not been recorded elsewhere in continental Antarctica. RAPD (Random Amplified Polymorphic DNA) studies of 26 samples of C. pyriformis from two areas of heated ground on Mount Melbourne showed there was genetic diversity within the population. Genetic evidence for dispersal between the two sites, together with some genetic variation within individual colonies, indicates a single colonisation event has probably occurred at this extremely isolated location followed by multiple mutations. A single sample of moss protonema was collected 25 years ago from steam-warmed ground near the summit of another volcano, Mount Erebus (3794 m), on Ross Island some 300 km south of Mount Melbourne. The moss could not be identified based on morphological and reproductive criteria, as all attempts to differentiate it to a recognisable gametophyte were unsuccessful. The RAPD technique has now shown it to be C. pyriformis, and closely related to the population on Mount Melbourne.

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5

Campbell, Lynda, and Margaret Kertesz. "Boys aged 9-12 years using the services of Anglicare Victoria: A three month population study." Children Australia 28, no. 3 (2003): 22–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s103507720000568x.

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This study was conducted in response to the concerns of staff within Anglicare Victoria about the presenting problems of boys aged 9-12 years across the various agency programs and the lack of systematic data about them. Under the umbrella of the Anglicare Victoria/University of Melbourne Social Work Partnership Program, a study was undertaken with the assistance of social work students on placement within the agency. A census-style survey was completed by AV staff members for any boy aged 9, 10, 11 or 12 years in an agency program during a three-month period. Non-identifying survey forms were returned for 203 boys and this article reports the major descriptive information and service implications derived from those returns.

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6

Antioch, Kathryn M., Michael K. Walsh, David Anderson, and Richard Brice. "Forecasting hospital expenditure in Victoria: Lessons from Europe and Canada." Australian Health Review 22, no. 1 (1999): 133. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/ah990133.

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This paper specifies an econometric model to forecast State government expenditure on recognised public hospitals in Victoria. The OECD's recent cross-country econometric work exploring factors affecting health spending was instructive. The model found that Victorian Gross State Product, population aged under 4 years, the mix of public and private patients in public hospitals, introduction of case mix funding and funding cuts, the proportion of public beds to total beds in Victoria and technology significantly impacted on expenditure. The model may have application internationally for forecasting health costs, particularly in short and medium-term budgetary cycles.

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7

Tory, K. J., M. E. Cope, G. D. Hess, S. Lee, K. Puri, P. C. Manins, and N. Wong. "The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System. Part III: Case Study of a Melbourne 4-Day Photochemical Smog Event." Journal of Applied Meteorology 43, no. 5 (May 1, 2004): 680–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2092.1.

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Abstract A 4-day photochemical smog event in the Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, region (6–9 March 2001) is examined to assess the performance of the Australian Air Quality Forecasting System (AAQFS). Although peak ozone concentrations measured during this period did not exceed the 1-h national air quality standard of 100 ppb, elevated maximum ozone concentrations in the range of 50–80 ppb were recorded at a number of monitoring stations on all four days. These maximum values were in general very well forecast by the AAQFS. On all but the third day the system predicted the advection of ozone precursors over Port Phillip (the adjacent bay) during the morning, where, later in the day, relatively high ozone concentrations developed. The ozone was advected back inland by bay and sea breezes. On the third day, a southerly component to the background wind direction prevented the precursor drainage over the bay, and the characteristic ozone cycle was disrupted. The success of the system's ability to predict peak ozone at individual monitoring stations was largely dependent on the direction and penetration of the sea and bay breezes, which in turn were dependent on the delicate balance between these winds and the opposing synoptic flow.

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8

Wah, Win, Rob G. Stirling, Susannah Ahern, and Arul Earnest. "Forecasting of Lung Cancer Incident Cases at the Small-Area Level in Victoria, Australia." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 10 (May 11, 2021): 5069. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18105069.

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Predicting lung cancer cases at the small-area level is helpful to quantify the lung cancer burden for health planning purposes at the local geographic level. Using Victorian Cancer Registry (2001–2018) data, this study aims to forecast lung cancer counts at the local government area (LGA) level over the next ten years (2019–2028) in Victoria, Australia. We used the Age-Period-Cohort approach to estimate the annual age-specific incidence and utilised Bayesian spatio-temporal models that account for non-linear temporal trends and area-level risk factors. Compared to 2001, lung cancer incidence increased by 28.82% from 1353 to 1743 cases for men and 78.79% from 759 to 1357 cases for women in 2018. Lung cancer counts are expected to reach 2515 cases for men and 1909 cases for women in 2028, with a corresponding 44% and 41% increase. The majority of LGAs are projected to have an increasing trend for both men and women by 2028. Unexplained area-level spatial variation substantially reduced after adjusting for the elderly population in the model. Male and female lung cancer cases are projected to rise at the state level and in each LGA in the next ten years. Population growth and an ageing population largely contributed to this rise.

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9

Campbell, Lynda. "The Families First Pilot Program in Victoria: Cuckoo or contribution?" Children Australia 19, no. 2 (1994): 4–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1035077200003898.

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The Families First Pilot Program in the then Outer East metropolitan region of Melbourne began in mid-1991 as an intensive family preservation and reunification service for children on the verge of state care. The service offered was brief (4-6 week), intensive (up to 20 hours per week), home-based and flexible (24 hour a day, 7 day a week availability) and all members of the household or family were the focus of service even though the goals were clearly grounded in the protection of the child. This paper begins with some of the apprehension expressed both in the field and in Children Australia in 1993, and reports upon the now completed evaluation of the pilot, which covered the first 18 months of operation. The evaluation examined implementation and program development issues and considered the client population of the service against comparative data about those children at risk who were not included. The paper concludes that there is room for Families First in the Victorian system of protective and family services and points to several developmental issues.

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10

Frank, Stephen, Glenn Waters, Russell Beer, and Peter May. "An Analysis of the Street Tree Population of Greater Melbourne at the Beginning of the 21st Century." Arboriculture & Urban Forestry 32, no. 4 (July 1, 2006): 155–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.48044/jauf.2006.021.

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An audit of the street tree population of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, was undertaken to establish its size and botanical composition as a reference point for future studies. The 31 independent municipalities that comprise metropolitan Melbourne were approached to provide information on their respective street tree populations. Where available, data from individual municipalities on population, area, and total street length were also collected. Of the 31 municipalities surveyed, 23 had undertaken some form of street tree inventory or audit. These individual data sets were combined into a single database. Data queries were then undertaken to obtain a range of information. A total of 922,353 trees, comprising 1127 taxa, were captured in this superset of data. Australian native plants made up the majority of the trees with 60% of the total. Of the Australian native taxa, wattles (Acacia spp.), gums or eucalypts (Eucalyptus spp.), paperbarks (Melaleuca spp.), bottlebrush (Callistemon spp.), and Queensland brush box (Lophostemon confertus [R. Br.] Peter G. Wilson and Waterhouse) comprised 394,730 individuals (43% of all trees). Of the exotic taxa, Prunus spp. were the most common with 86,227 individuals (9% of the total). Queensland brush box was the most common taxon surveyed with 61,959 individuals. Purple-leaf cherry plum (Prunus cerasifera Ehrh. ‘Nigra’) was the most common exotic taxon with 35,402 individuals. An analysis of the diversity of this population showed that it meets a set of minimum diversity criteria apart from the dominance of the Myrtaceae at the family level.

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Книги з теми "Population forecasting Victoria Melbourne"

1

Victoria. Dept. of Infrastructure. Research Unit. Melbourne in future: The Victorian Government's population projections 1996-2021. [Melbourne: Research Unit, Dept. of Infrastructure, 2000.

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2

Victoria. Dept. of Infrastructure. Research Unit. Victoria in future. Melbourne: Research Unit, Dept. of Infrastructure, 2000.

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3

Research, Victoria Department of Planning and Community Development Spatial Analysis and. Victoria in future 2012: Population and household projections 2011-2031 for Victoria and its regions. Melbourne, Victoria: Spatial Analysis and Research, 2012.

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4

Infrastructure, Victoria Dept of. Victoria in future: Background report for the victorian population projections 2000. Melbourne: Dept. of Infrastructure, 2000.

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5

Rudd, Dianne. The ageing of local area populations in Victoria: Past patterns and projected trends in the aged population. Carlton, Vic: Aged Care Research Group, Lincoln School of Health Sciences, La Trobe University, 1989.

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6

Victoria. Dept. of the Treasury and Finance., ed. Projections of dwelling commencements, households and populations for statistical local areas in metropolitan Melbourne. Victoria, [Australia]: Dept. of the Treasury, 1990.

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7

Projections of dwelling commencements, households and populations for statistical local areas in metropolitan Melbourne.: Statistical local area projections by age and sex. Victoria, [Australia]: Dept. of the Treasury, 1990.

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