Дисертації з теми "Politique de l'environnement – Méthodes statistiques"
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Sciaccitano, Marie. "Élasticités Environnementales d'Engel : Mesures, Estimations et Déterminants." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Université Côte d'Azur, 2023. http://www.theses.fr/2023COAZ0030.
In the context of climate change, ecological transition relies in part on the adoption of sustainable consumption, in line with the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (2015). The diversity of definitions associated with sustainable consumption leads to a lack of consensus related to the classifications and scope of sustainable consumption. Consequently, data and measures related to sustainable consumption are limited, thereby restricting empirical studies on this subject. The thesis addresses these constraints through three chapters, offering the original methodology and results.Chapter 1 presents a methodology for measuring household sustainable consumption in 150 countries over the period 1995-2015. This measure is constructed using environmental goods and services, classified as CLEG and APEC, identified in the final demand of households from the Input-Output Tables Exiobase3rx.Chapter 2 explores the relationship between disposable income and sustainable consumption at the macroeconomic level, referring to the Environmental Engel Curve framework. The empirical analysis estimates the effect of disposable income on household sustainable consumption and determines Engelian elasticities which, depending on their values, categorize this consumption as either a luxury or a necessity consumption. Furthermore, our econometric estimation introduces a Bartik instrument, suggesting a significant impact of green fiscal policies on household sustainable consumption. Performing a simulation exercise, we emphasize the importance of considering the «true value» of Engelian elasticities in the context of global redistribution policies, such as the Climate Fund.Chapter 3 evaluates the effect of income inequality on this type of consumption, thereby contributing to the debate on the trade-off between environmental quality and inequalities. Using three inequality indicators, our results suggest that the impacts of inequalities on sustainable consumption depend on the income level and the measure of inequalities considered. By introducing a higher-order polynomial, we analyse the sensitivity of this consumption to changes in the level of inequalities and determine an optimal level of inequalities that maximizes household sustainable consumption.Overall, this thesis contributes to the measurement of household sustainable consumption by country and explores its determinants, while also providing insights for environmental and redistributive policies
Delattre, Laurence. "Analyse des déterminants des choix de préservation des espaces agricoles et naturels dans les politiques locales d'urbanisme : apports d'une approche multi-méthodes." Paris, EHESS, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013EHES0054.
In a context of strong spatial urban growth and given the social emerging issues related to peri-urban farmland preservation against sprawl, we look into the elements that determine local public choices of urban development, in terms of land consumption and densities. We first consider economic frameworks of analysis from Urban and Welfare Economics that address urban planning decision making. Then, we analyze how a multi-method approach (discourse analysis, text statistics and econometrics on a large municipal database) can help build a theoretical framework adapted to a regulated and decentralized context as the French one. We apply this approach to Southeastern France municipal land use plans (Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, "PACA" Region). The result is an enriched framework of analysis that shows the importance of determinants rarely mentioned in the literature and an assessment of their effect on public decision. Particular roles of some agricultural activity characteristics, elected officials' legitimacy, some of the political characteristics, supra¬municipal policies and interactions between municipalities are outlined. We also highlight synergies between qualitative and quantitative methods such as between discourse, text analyses and econometrics, namely in a perspective of generalization to heterogeneous geographical and institutional contexts. Avenues for future research and some recommendations to public decision-makers are lastly proposed for an in-depth examination
Trinh, Thi Huong. "Adapting recent statistical techniques to the study of nutrition in Vietnam." Thesis, Toulouse 1, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018TOU10010/document.
The objective of this thesis is to adapt recent statistical techniques and to bring new insights on the nutritional transition in Vietnam. Vietnam is a lower middle income country but it now faces the double burden of malnutrition characterized by the coexistence of undernutrition along with overweight and obesity, or diet-related noncommunicable diseases. Chapter 1 gives a brief introduction to this thesis. We consider Vietnam is a pilot case study about nutrition. Chapter 2, we revisit the issue of estimating the relationship between per capita calorie intake and income using six waves of the Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey over the period 2004-2014. Characterizing the response of calorie intake to income for the poorest households is a prerequisite for considering policies aimed at reducing starvation and correcting nutritional deficiencies. The classical log-log specification does not capture the nonlinearity of this relationship. We adopt rather various generalized additive models (GAM) specifications where only income is supposed to act in a nonlinear fashion and compare them with a recent procedure. The results highlight the strong response of calorie intake to an increase in income for the poorest households. A byproduct of the proposed methodology is the decomposition of the evolution of average calorie intake between the two waves into the part due to the change of population characteristics distributions and those coming from the change in calorie-income relationship, shedding new light on the nutritional transition in Vietnam. Chapter 3, we use decomposition methods to assess the determinants of changes in macronutrients consumption in Vietnam using the 2004 and 2014 waves. The common objective of decomposition methods is to decompose between-group differences in economic outcomes such as wage or income, into two components: a composition effect due to differences in observable covariates across groups, and a structure effect due to differences in the relationship that links the covariates to the considered outcome. The recent decomposition procedure proposed by Rothe (2015) aims at decomposing further the composition effect into three types of components: the direct contribution of each covariate, several two way and higher order interaction effects and a dependence. Rothe (2015) uses a parametric copula to model the dependence effects and we adapt this approach to the case of a mixture of continuous and discrete covariates. Chapter 4, we focus on food composition in terms of diet components. We consider modeling the proportions of protein, fat and carbohydrate in the average per capita calorie intake. We use descriptive tools, such as compositional biplots and ternary diagrams, to show the evolution of the three components over the years and then model macronutrients composition as a function of household characteristics, using compositional regression models. We derive the expression of the semi-elasticities of macronutrients shares with respect to food expenditure. We then compare the interpretations of these shares semi-elasticities to that of volumes of macronutrients and of total calorie intake obtained using classical linear models. Chapter 5, we focus on the relationship between macronutrient balances and body mass index. We develop a compositional regression model including a total at various quantile orders. We then compute the elasticities of BMI with respect to each macronutrient and to the total consumption. Our empirical research is based on the General Nutrition Survey 2009-2010. The results first reveal significant impacts of some socio--economics factors. All elasticities of BMI with respect to each macronutrient increase as BMI increases until a threshold (BMI=20) and then remain stable. Chapter 6, we briefly give our perspectives of future research in both mathematics and nutrition
Nodet, Maëlle. "Problèmes inverses pour l'environnement : outils, méthodes et applications." Habilitation à diriger des recherches, Université de Grenoble, 2013. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00930102.
Chancellier, Eric. "La modélisation du cycle économique : formes, usages, instruments (1887-1950)." Angers, 2006. http://www.theses.fr/2006ANGE0051.
Le, Rest Kévin. "Méthodes statistiques pour la modélisation des facteurs influençant la distribution et l'abondance de populations : Application aux rapaces diurnes nichant en France." Phd thesis, Université de Poitiers, 2013. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00975795.
Gbagbeu, Vramah Serge Marius. "Analyse des facteurs explicatifs du commerce international de biens environnementaux : Utilisation de modèles de gravité." Thesis, Université Laval, 2013. http://www.theses.ulaval.ca/2013/29719/29719.pdf.
The main objective of the present study is to analyze the determiners of the trade of goods generally and the environmental goods in particular from the models of gravity of type CES and Translog inspired by the works of Novy (2012). Our results of estimation from these two models allow to say on one hand that the impact of the explanatory variables is more important on the flow of trade when we use the model Translog but this impact is not uniform and on the other hand that this impact is more important on the trade of the environmental goods to compared with the flow of the exchanges of all the goods in a general way. Finally, the value of the coefficients of regression so that of the elasticity cost of the trade from the model Translog are in the neighborhood of the results of the empirical studies which served as reference frame.
Petit-Graffard, Claude. "Les Méthodes bayésiennes dans les essais cliniques multicritères à visée pharmaco-économique : cas d'un essai sur la schizophrénie." Paris 11, 1999. http://www.theses.fr/1999PA11T003.
Mainieri, Robin. "La forêt, un intégrateur robuste de l'évolution de la dynamique des chutes de blocs dans un contexte de changements environnementaux ?" Electronic Thesis or Diss., Université Grenoble Alpes, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020GRALU009.
Rockfalls are one of the most common geomorphological processes in the steeply sloping environments. Despite their limited volumes, rockfalls pose a significant hazard, due to their rapid evolution, high velocity and impact energy, but their unpredictable occurrence hinders detailed investigation of their dynamics and drivers under natural conditions. As the relative influence of rainfall, snowmelt, temperature, or freeze–thaw cycles have long been identified, based on medium-term monitoring methods, as the main drivers of rockfall activity, increasing rockfall hazards triggered by climate change are a major concern expressed both in scientific and non-scientific media.At high altitude sites, unequivocal relationships have been established between heightened rockfall activity, permafrost thawing and global warming. By contrast, below the permafrost limit, in the absence of longer-term assessments of rockfall triggers and possible changes thereof, our knowledge of rockfall dynamics remains still lacunary as a result of the persisting scarcity of exhaustive and precise rockfall databases.Over the last two decades, dendrogeomorphology – based on the analysis of damage inflicted to trees after rockfall impacts – has been used to overcome certain limitations inherent to historical archives and reconstructions of rockfall activity have been developed. Paradoxically, tree-ring reconstructions have only rarely been compared with climatic data to precisely constrain the potential meteorological triggers of process activity or to detect potential influences of global warming mostly due to the absence of clear recommendations to derive reconstructions that optimally capture the climatic signal in rockfall-prone environments.In this context, this PhD thesis first aims at proposing clear methodological guidelines to optimize sampling strategies of trees so as to precisely quantify uncertainties in dendrogeomorphic reconstructions back in time. Our results clearly evidence that the high-resolution mapping of stems on the studied combined with a careful selection of tree-species located at the vicinity of the cliffs improve the robustness of our reconstructions at the Saint-Guillaume (mixed forest stand, Vercors massif, French Alps) and Valdrôme (monospecific planted forest stands, Diois massif, French Alps) studied plots.In the second part, we capitalize on rockfall activity derived from optimized reconstructions and on the high-spatio-temporal resolution of the SAFRAN reanalyses, to precisely identify the meteorological triggers of rockfall events. At the interannual scale, our results evidence that summer precipitations and intense rainfall-events are the main drivers at both sites while no clear impact of temperature or freeze-thaw cycles could be detected.Finally, we compare decadal fluctuations existing in both tree-ring records with climatic series available for the period 1959-2017 with the purpose to detect the potential impacts of global warming on rockfall activity. In the Vercors massif, we explain increasing rockfall activity observed in the reconstruction since 1959 by a rapid forest recolonization and the overrepresentation of young sensitive trees rather than by climate change. In the Diois massif, the absence of significant trend suggests that a premature warning of increasing rockfall hazard, is not supported by the existing data. Yet, the weak robustness of the multiple regression models used here, the limited increase of temperature at the study sites and the incompleteness of our tree-ring reconstructions suggest that these results have to be treated with cautiously. All in all, this PhD thesis clearly demonstrates the added-value of the dendrogeomorphic approach to reconstruct rockfall activity, assess the meteorological driver of past events as well as to detect the potential impacts of environmental changes on the process dynamics
Desmeules, Alexandre. "Les barrières à l'entrée et la polarisation des partis politiques : une approche expérimentale." Thesis, Université Laval, 2013. http://www.theses.ulaval.ca/2013/29479/29479.pdf.
Domin, Jean-Paul. "Les dépenses hospitalières entre 1803 et 1993 : dynamique hospitalière et cycles longs." Paris 1, 1998. http://www.theses.fr/1998PA010056.
The hospital system is tightly linked to the economic system. To relate both entities over this long period of time allows a setter apprehension of the current characteristics and stakes I and of the difficulties met by the system of taking charge of the diseased the hospital system was developed through a succession of stages. Each period has its own economic organisation, a disposition of social protection and health system. Those three points are deeply imbricated, achieving a resulation process. From 1603 to 1690, while france was getting industrialised, the social system was built around individual contingency fund. The medical care system is divided into a commercial sphere (doctors, healthofficers) and a non-commercial sphere (the hospital), offering assistances the destitute only. From 1895 to 1945, the capitalist system concentrated and labour rarefied. A collective disposition for social protection started to develop and the hospital system slowly opened t0 the whole population from 1945 on, the economic growth and the social security accelerated the rise of the hospital today's crisis questions this growth. The analysis calls for the hospitals quantitative history (volume I) and is founded on the l0ng-term construction of m0netary and non-monetary series. These series show evidence of long term cyclic fluctuations contrary to kondratieff's movements. During the crisis periods, called phase B, hospital expenses raise. This particularity underlines the contercyclique regulator charactere of the hospital. Since 1945, this tendency has been absent, therefore, the hospital system had to participate to the economic growth but, the crisis urges transformations and favours the emergence of new experiments regardind hospital organisation
Cloutier, Jacinthe. "Adéquation du modèle de socialisation à la consommation appliquée au domaine de l'épargne et invariance selon le mode de collecte de données." Thesis, Université Laval, 2011. http://www.theses.ulaval.ca/2011/28438/28438.pdf.
Bourrelly, Stéphane. "Modélisation et identification de facteurs environnementaux géographiques liés à des risques morbides : Application aux séquelles développées après le traitement d'une leucémie : Cohorte LEA." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Nice, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014NICE2026.
This thesis is an interdisciplinary approach combining Geography, Epidemiology and Statistics. It is a methodological thesis applying to a public health issue. The concept consist in developing a dialectical adapted to the geographic health and proposing or transposing probabilistic methods, geostatistical and datamining instruments, to model and to identify geographic environmental factors related to morbid risks. In this research the environment is considered in its integrity. It is described by spatiotemporal indicators: physicochemical, health and socioeconomic. The geographical environment of the individual and medical characteristics of targeted populations is also taken into account. Heuristic proposals aim to identify environmental health determinants, or contributing risk factors. The methods have been implemented or adapted to the issue. They are applicable and reproducible in all diseases studied in Geographic Health. In order, to illustrate these proposals, they are applied to squeals observed following the treatment of childhood leukemia - Cohort LEA. In developed countries, access to effective treatments leads to an increase of squeals incidence. Those have an impact on the quality of life. Therefore, post-cancer and children's health have positioned themselves at the core of social concerns in Europe and in France. Beyond the scientific goals, contributions in public health are expected. The idea is to provide operational space indicators to politicians in order to help them to take collective health measures. And for health professionals to be able to offer individual medical solutions, devoted to reduce the risk of exposure to environmental factors of the populations due to their geographical location. In consequence, to improve access to a good environmental health
Henry, Lionel. "Deep exploratory regression modelling of survey data. With applications to electoral survey data of the 2014 elections in Belgium." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2020. https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/308280/4/TOC.pdf.
Doctorat en Sciences politiques et sociales
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
Lettieri, Carmela. "Formes et acteurs des débats publics contemporains : les tribunes publiées dans la presse quotidienne en Italie et en France." Paris 2, 2002. http://www.theses.fr/2002PA020006.
Jadot, Anne. "Le rapport des citoyens aux différents types d'élections en France et en Angleterre : contribution à une sociologie compréhensive de la participation électorale." Paris, Institut d'études politiques, 2006. http://www.theses.fr/2006IEPP0001.
El, Gouddi Sami. "Externalités intra-sectorielles, externalités intersectorielles et spécialisation technologique internationale." Paris 13, 2011. http://scbd-sto.univ-paris13.fr/secure/ederasme_th_2011_el_gouddi.pdf.
This thesis provides a theoretical and empirical literature on the involvement of implicit exchanges of knowledge (or externalities) on the technological performance of countries. Two types of externalities are then considered: those based on ‘’differences’’ and those based on ‘’similarities’’. The theoretical contribution is to construct a model in which externalities difference would act simultaneously with the externalities of similarity. The aim is to show how knowledge spillovers are able to account for several phenomena in one way or another to international specialization in an economy of knowledge. Specifically, the proposed evolutionary model provides a theoretical explanation for the diversification of areas largely neglected in the literature. Empirically, our main work comes in the wake of the geography of innovation. Beyond highlighting the impact of externalities on innovation, our estimates confirm the ability of sectors without comparative advantage (SAC) to generate positive interindustry spillovers. Thus, from ''harmful'' and ''involuntary'' phenomenon, diversification into (SAC) is transformed into a ''beneficial'' and ''intentional'' phenomenon likely to promote proactive policies for capture of externalities. Generally, distinguishing externalities as technological and geographical dimensions, our results allow us to draw the outlines of an efficient innovation policy that takes into account technological complementarities and geographical environment. Thus, our thesis provides an overview of the ''externalities’’ phenomenon It highlights the potential explanatory externalities in understanding the dynamics of international specialization. Similarly, it explains why certain types of externalities act more strongly on innovation than others
Raj, Anasuya. "Essays in Public Economics and Political Economy." Thesis, Institut polytechnique de Paris, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020IPPAX024.
This thesis lies in the fields of Public Economics and Political Economy and is articulated around two axes. The first and second chapters focus on redistributive policies. More precisely, they present contributions to the theory of income taxation, and adopt both a normative and a political economy perspective. The third and fourth chapters are grounded in political economy and contribute to providing a better understanding of political forces guiding reforms in multi-State unions such as the European Union. They focus on the preferences of individuals who are of great importance in decision-making processes but for whom little direct evidence is available: politicians.Both my first and second chapters seek to enrich a standard framework of optimal income taxation with new considerations, which allow to account better for both institutional and social contexts. Chapter 1 accounts for links between individuals when designing a redistribution system. Indeed, up until now income taxation problems have always dealt with redistribution between individuals, or couples, as separate entities. But in a lot of contexts, individuals are actually part of networks that may include their family, friends, village or community members, and make transfers to them on a regular basis. And this should matter to the government, because these transfers flow from richer to poorer individuals, and thus represent another form of redistribution, an informal one. My research question is then: how should the existence of such informal but redistributive transfers affect the design of income taxes? Chapter 2 starts from the observation that in many countries that have well-developed tax systems, the proportion of the population who does not pay the income tax is sizeable -- a salient feature of many tax systems in developed countries. Using tools from the normative taxation literature which we apply to a political economy of tax reforms framework, we manage to study the political economy of reforms of non-linear tax systems, which helps us understand why it might be the case that such important shares of the population are exempt from the income tax. Even though both chapters are theoretical, I use administrative and survey data to illustrate and draw concrete conclusions from my models.Finally, the last two chapters of my thesis are dedicated to a project on the preferences of French and German Members of Parliament for different EU integration measures. A first wave of questionnaire-based surveys was conducted in 2016. The aim of this project is to carry out these surveys on a regular basis so as to better understand European Union dynamics and help feed current EU debates with academic insights. The third and fourth chapters thus study the opinion of Members of Parliament regarding policies which hold particular importance in light of today's and the last ten years' debates: labour market policies, and the European Monetary Union. They provide a different take on political economy questions, and inform the preferences of an important set of actors in decision-making processes: politicians, for whom apart from their public votes and statements, little evidence is available on their opinions. In these chapters we seek to disentangle which of two factors is most important in the differences observed: cultural or ideological differences? Surprisingly, we find that for a majority of questions the answers reflect more of an ideological (left/right) divide than a French/German one. For instance, the creation of a common unemployment insurance and more labor market flexibility highlight a divide that pertains much more to ideology than to nationality. Such results may help shed light on potential directions that may be fruitful for more European integration
Colombo, Andrea. "Why do local institutions matter? The political economy of decentralization." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/285632.
Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
Paumelle, Martin. "Description multi-dimensionnelle de l'environnement à l'échelle des territoires : contribution pour la recherche de déterminants environnementaux dans l'étiologie des maladies chroniques." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Université de Lille (2022-....), 2023. http://www.theses.fr/2023ULILR050.
Among chronic diseases, Crohn's disease (CD) and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) have a multifactorial etiology that remains partly unknown, with a strong suspicion of an environmental link. The spatial distribution of their incidence has been mapped at the municipal level in Northern France, using two health registers (Epimad and Nephronor). These spatial disparities in incidence serve as the starting point to investigate potential environmental determinants that may be involved in the onset of these diseases.The characterization of the environment and its link to health is often approached in a fragmented manner, focusing on a specific emission source, pollutant, or exposure medium. While these approaches are necessary, they may be limited in comprehending the complexity of the relationship between the environment and health, especially for multifactorial diseases with unknown environmental risk factors. In such cases, it is relevant to prioritize territorial and multidimensional strategies before potentially targeting specific environmental risk factors. In this context, how can multiple open environmental data sources be leveraged to identify territorial determinants of multifactorial diseases?The main objective of this thesis is to offer an integrated description of the environment at the territorial level to inform the etiology of the studied diseases. The strategy involved collecting and reusing open environmental data. This approach identified 24 data sources and generated 113 spatial indicators at the municipal level for four departments. These indicators allow for the characterization of contamination levels in various media (air, water, soil), pollutant emissions, the location of emission sources, land use, agricultural practices, the natural features of territories, and climate. Several methodologies were used to exploit these indicators and characterize the environment from a multidimensional perspective.A first approach involved developing composite spatial indices. These indices synthesize information from many indicators into a single global measure. Initially, vulnerability and resilience indices were calculated. They characterize the uneven spatial distribution of environmental determinants that have a beneficial or detrimental impact on health. Subsequently, composite indices of multi-media contamination (air, water, soil) were constructed.A second approach was developed using multivariate classification methods to create territorial typologies and describe the environmental profiles of municipalities. These results provide a more complex view of territories and have allowed to understand how environmental pressures are distributed in space and overlap with each other.Finally, the results of these multidimensional approaches were linked to spatial variations in the incidence of chronic diseases, suggesting potential connections between the environment and the occurrence of these pathologies. For ES-CKD, associations were observed with urban pressure and fine particulate air pollution, corroborating existing literature. For CD, links were suggested with agricultural practices, the natural characteristics of territories, and metallic soil pollution. Further epidemiological approaches are now needed to test these hypotheses and advance research in this area
Moison, Maud. "Approche expérimentale et numérique du comportement individuel de Temora longicornis (Müller, 1792), copépode calanoïde typique de la Manche orientale : réponses aux forçages biotiques et abiotiques." Thesis, Lille 1, 2009. http://www.theses.fr/2009LIL10163/document.
In a very heterogeneous marine environment, the copepods ability to minimize energy costs due to swimming and to maximize the probability of meeting partner or prey is crucial. In addition, these animals have chemio and mechanoreceptors, which make very good "nano-biosensor". They will be very sensitive to stress physico-chemical, biological, including seasonal variations. The objective of this study is to characterize the behavioral responses of the species Temora longicornis (Müller, 1792), typical copepod of the Eastern Channel, in conjunction with various biotic and abiotic forcings of this environment. Initially, the effect of temperature and salinity variations and the presence of prey were tested separately and in a controlled environment. Meanwhile, regular monitoring of behavior was conducted for two years. For this, trajectories of copepods males and females are explored through new approaches using statistical methods from the fields of information theory and statistical physics, and through analysis of different symbolic states medley. For this species, swimming activity consists of a succession of periods of break and “cruise” interrupted by quick jumps. Swimming speed, especially the frequency of jumps, increases under extreme temperatures. The presence of algae in the environment also changes markedly its activity; including the time allocated for exploration and fast swimming increase with the availability of prey. Consequently, the influence of these factors and the large variability in coastal eastern handle both physically and biologically may explain the behavior variability observed during the seasonal monitoring
Bourrelly, Stéphane. "Modélisation et identification de facteurs environnementaux géographiques liés à des risques morbides : Application aux séquelles développées après le traitement d'une leucémie : Cohorte LEA." Thesis, Nice, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014NICE2026/document.
This thesis is an interdisciplinary approach combining Geography, Epidemiology and Statistics. It is a methodological thesis applying to a public health issue. The concept consist in developing a dialectical adapted to the geographic health and proposing or transposing probabilistic methods, geostatistical and datamining instruments, to model and to identify geographic environmental factors related to morbid risks. In this research the environment is considered in its integrity. It is described by spatiotemporal indicators: physicochemical, health and socioeconomic. The geographical environment of the individual and medical characteristics of targeted populations is also taken into account. Heuristic proposals aim to identify environmental health determinants, or contributing risk factors. The methods have been implemented or adapted to the issue. They are applicable and reproducible in all diseases studied in Geographic Health. In order, to illustrate these proposals, they are applied to squeals observed following the treatment of childhood leukemia - Cohort LEA. In developed countries, access to effective treatments leads to an increase of squeals incidence. Those have an impact on the quality of life. Therefore, post-cancer and children's health have positioned themselves at the core of social concerns in Europe and in France. Beyond the scientific goals, contributions in public health are expected. The idea is to provide operational space indicators to politicians in order to help them to take collective health measures. And for health professionals to be able to offer individual medical solutions, devoted to reduce the risk of exposure to environmental factors of the populations due to their geographical location. In consequence, to improve access to a good environmental health
Bertomeu, Salvador. "Essays on the economics, politics and finance of infrastructure." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/316958.
Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
Nganga, Irungu William. "Essais sur la dynamique de la soutenabilité de la dette du Kenya." Thesis, Paris 8, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018PA080024/document.
Existing literature on debt sustainability emphasizes the existence of a threshold or a tipping point beyond which debt compromises growth and destabilizes the economy. This Ph.D. thesis goes beyond threshold testing and presents three additional approaches which could be used to further interrogate debt dynamics. Using annual time series data from 1963 to 2015, and employing a Structural Vector Autoregressive Model (SVAR), Markov switching models (MS) and Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive models (SETAR) for robustness, the three chapters cross-examine Kenya’s debt sustainability, by addressing three questions: First chapter, is the fiscal policy response to macroeconomic shocks consistent with a sustainable debt trajectory? The second chapter, given that the fiscal response may deviate from the sustainable path in the short-run, are these deviations systematically corrected in the long run? The third chapter, to what extent does coordination between monetary and fiscal policy, if any, alleviate or exacerbate debt sustainability in the long run? The results obtained confirm the following: (i) The primary balance reacts to macroeconomic shocks in a manner consistent with debt sustainability (ii) Fiscal consolidation might be counterproductive as a response to debt management. (iii) Debt drives growth in Kenya. (iv) Both sustainable and unsustainable fiscal regimes are dominant with each lasting an average of four years, while the No-Ponzi game condition weakly holds in the Kenyan economy in the long run. (v) The persistence of unsustainability regime for more than four years could threaten long-run fiscal sustainability
Dhermy-Mairal, Marine. "Les sciences sociales et l'action au Bureau international du travail (1920-1939)." Paris, EHESS, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015EHES0118.
This doctoral dissertation is about the history of scientific practices at the International Labor Organization between 1920 and 1939. They are considered as a moment of convergence between both scientific and political concerns, aimed at establishing an international moral that would be based on social sciences. We set the general organization of research at ILO, tracked civil servants and scientists trajectories, analyzed their discourses on science and scientificity. We then turned more particularly on an epistemological and political study of the "Enquiry on production", with a special focus on scientific collaborations which helped leading the enquiry. These activities are deepened through a history of statistical thinking and social sciences. On the one hand, we paid a sustained attention to the intellectual and scientific contribution to ILO's work of four disciples of the French sociologist Emile Durkheim. On the other hand, and conversely, we also looked at the moral role that was attributed to ILO by these scientists within their intellectual durkheimian's framework. This peculiar moment of interaction between science and action allows us to write a unique story which intertwines a history of administrative savoir-faire with a history of social sciences in the interwar
Labib, Malak. "La statistique d’État en Égypte à l’ère coloniale : Finances, espace public et représentation (1875-1922)." Thesis, Aix-Marseille, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015AIXM3046.
My dissertation deals with the emergence and development of statistics, as a field of knowledge and practice in Egypt during the colonial era (1875-1922). It attempts to explore the complex relationship between knowledge production and colonization by analyzing how the emergence of new forms of enumeration and classification contributed to the making of the colonial State in Egypt
Voiron-Canicio, Christine. "Espace, structures et dynamiques regionales. L'arc mediterraneen." Nice, 1992. http://www.theses.fr/1992NICE2018.
This thesis aims at studying the mediterranean arc : the regions from the straits of gibraltar to the straits of messina that border the coasts of the northwestern mediterranean. The study undertakes to find out whether there exist, beyond the apparent differences, similar forms of organization and types of evolution, and whether, excepting time-lags the devolopment trands have been identical or close. In a word, does an arc effect exist? spatial considerations are at the heart of the problem, the first part of the study is thus devoted to research on methods and techniques that allow for the best integration of space within the regional analysis. The structures and regional dynamics of the arc are analysed in part 2. In the first place, we have compared their structures and socio-economic dynamics with those of other european regions. We next focussed on the string of coastal provinces and departments. Fanally, we have carried out several "close-up" views by focussing on a sample of regions whose structures we have compared, and the functioning of the micro-regional dynamics of on of which has been modelled
Saade, Kassab Layla. "L'Etat de la statistique au Liban : approche épistémologique et étude de l'infrastructure et de l'aspect opérationnel des données." Metz, 2003. http://docnum.univ-lorraine.fr/public/UPV-M/Theses/2003/Saade_Kassab.Layla.LMZ0321_1.pdf.
The statistics in Lebanon is the center of interest of this work. One always notices in Lebanon enormous differences in the results of studies on the same topic from one research center to another. These hiatuses and ambiguities were at the origin of the choice of this dissertation topic. Indeed, the documentary and bibliografic research was insufficient in this domain because of the lack of statistical works--- an issue that required the realization of several interviews with statisticians, directors of research centers, and civil servants who are responsible of the statistical services in the public and private sectors. The work is divided into four main parts. This first part is a survey of the origins of statistics in the world and its evolution from civilizations until these days. In addition, it is about the usefulness and the stakes of statistics and its historic evolution in the developed and developing countries, and the origin of statistics and its evolution in Lebanon from the French mandate until the 1960's ans 70's. . .
Oladeji, Sunday. "Commerce Nord-Sud et environnement : une approche technologique." Aix-Marseille 2, 1999. http://www.theses.fr/1999AIX24007.
Stéphan, Maïté. "Fiabilité du temps de transport : Mesures, valorisation monétaire et intégration dans le calcul économique public." Thesis, Montpellier, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015MONTD072/document.
This thesis deals with the issue of travel time reliability. The study of travel time reliability emerges from the fact that in many situations, travel time is random. Many events can change the travel time forecasted by operators or expected by users. Moreover, a tradeoff may exist between time and reliability benefits when evaluating socio economic appraisal of transport infrastructure. However, since reliability is still difficult to integrate in this type of evaluation, investment projects’ collective profitability is underestimated and often postponed. Thus, three main issues of travel time reliability analysis emerge: measurement, monetary valuation and implication for cost benefit analysis. This thesis is organized in three chapters. The first chapter adapts the measure of travel time reliability typically used in the road transport context to the collective modes (rail and air, in particular). We also develop a new reliability measure: the Delay-at-Risk (DaR). DaR is an implementation of the Value-at-Risk (V aR) measure into the transport economic framework. The DaR seem to be relevant and understandable information for the users, especially to plan their travel and avoid missing their connections. The main objective of the second chapter is to define the users’ willingness to pay to improve travel time reliability. We present a theoretical framework based on decision theory under risk. We introduce the concept of reliability-proneness (i.e. travel time risk aversion) and prudence. We develop new measures of travel time reliability expressed as risk premium: the reliability-premium and V OR. The reliability-premium is the maximum amount of additional travel time that an individual is willing to accept to escape all the risk of travel time. The V OR is defined as the maximum monetary amount that an individual is willing to pay to escape all the risk of travel time. Furthermore, we also establish the link with attitudes towards risks of travel time (aversion and prudence) and the impact of the value of travel time (V TTS) and the value of reliability (V OR). The final chapter of this thesis integrates reliability in investments project’s socioeconomic appraisal. More particularly, it allows to determine users’ surplus valuation. We highlight a diffusion effect of reliability benefits with regard to travel time benefits. Thus, we propose recommendations regarding the tradeoff between projects that generate time benefits compared with reliability benefits, according to the monetary values of travel time(V TTS) and reliability (V OR)
Cornet, Alexandre. "Dynamiques et interactions en économie des ressources naturelles : usages des sols, pollution des terres et énergies renouvelables." Thesis, Paris 1, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020PA01E066.
This thesis focuses on the interplay between dynamic economic policies concerning the use and preservation of natural resources and the technological, environmental and geographical frameworks in which they are implemented. The first chapter proposes an analysis of optimal peak load decarbonation pathways when back-up fossil fuels are being gradually substituted by stored intermittent renewable energy. We model the process of intermittent renewable energy storage under renewable energy surplus uncertainty in a Markovian framework and consider technical progress in both storage efficiency and capacity. This allows us to study the optimal storage policies with respect to carbon and storage costs, as well as the renewable energy surplus distribution. We analytically solve this problem under specific assumptions and use a value function iteration algorithm to investigate numerically on the optimal energy storage policies for peak load decarbonation in Portugal. Along with intermittency and storage costs, land use is another limitation to the development of renewable energy. In the second chapter of this thesis, we develop a macrodynamic growth model of the energy shift integrating land use constraints. Land is considered as a resource for agricultural production along with energy. Developing renewable energy uses space and thus interferes with the agricultural sector. Moreover, pollution abatement policies, such as forests preservation policies, also compete with renewable energy for land in order to reduce pollution from the use of fossil fuels. We theoretically study the competition in land use between agriculture, pollution abatement and renewable energy production and apply our model to study the development of a palm oil biodiesel sector in Brazil, along with the issues it rises regarding the Amazon forest preservation. The last chapter of this thesis also focuses on agricultural land, but this time to assess the impact of the agriculture activity on soil fertility. More precisely, we focus our analysis on a specific externality from the agricultural sector being diffuse soil pollution. Hence, we develop in this chapter a spatial growth model for an agricultural economy, in which pollution diffuses across space. We analytically show that, due to diffuse soil pollution, the economy can reach a long-term spatial equilibrium with a fertile region and a polluted region, and that the polluted region can either stagnate at low levels of fertility, or catch up with the fertile region. Our results are numerically illustrated, including the resiliency of the economy to recover from pollution shocks
Stéphan, Maïté. "Fiabilité du temps de transport : Mesures, valorisation monétaire et intégration dans le calcul économique public." Thesis, Montpellier, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015MONTD043/document.
This thesis deals with the issue of travel time reliability. The study of travel time reliability emerges from the fact that in many situations, travel time is random. Many events can change the travel time forecasted by operators or expected by users. Moreover, a tradeoff may exist between time and reliability benefits when evaluating socio economic appraisal of transport infrastructure. However, since reliability is still difficult to integrate in this type of evaluation, investment projects’ collective profitability is underestimated and often postponed. Thus, three main issues of travel time reliability analysis emerge: measurement, monetary valuation and implication for cost benefit analysis. This thesis is organized in three chapters. The first chapter adapts the measure of travel time reliability typically used in the road transport context to the collective modes (rail and air, in particular). We also develop a new reliability measure: the Delay-at-Risk (DaR). DaR is an implementation of the Value-at-Risk (V aR) measure into the transport economic framework. The DaR seem to be relevant and understandable information for the users, especially to plan their travel and avoid missing their connections. The main objective of the second chapter is to define the users’ willingness to pay to improve travel time reliability. We present a theoretical framework based on decision theory under risk. We introduce the concept of reliability-proneness (i.e. travel time risk aversion) and prudence. We develop new measures of travel time reliability expressed as risk premium: the reliability-premium and V OR. The reliability-premium is the maximum amount of additional travel time that an individual is willing to accept to escape all the risk of travel time. The V OR is defined as the maximum monetary amount that an individual is willing to pay to escape all the risk of travel time. Furthermore, we also establish the link with attitudes towards risks of travel time (aversion and prudence) and the impact of the value of travel time (V TTS) and the value of reliability (V OR). The final chapter of this thesis integrates reliability in investments project’s socioeconomic appraisal. More particularly, it allows to determine users’ surplus valuation. We highlight a diffusion effect of reliability benefits with regard to travel time benefits. Thus, we propose recommendations regarding the tradeoff between projects that generate time benefits compared with reliability benefits, according to the monetary values of travel time (V TTS) and reliability (V OR)
Heidelk, Tillmann. "Education, labor markets, and natural disasters." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/304527.
Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
Verrier, Sébastien. "Modélisation de la variabilité spatiale et temporelle des précipitations à la sub-mésoéchelle par une approche multifractale." Phd thesis, Université de Versailles-Saint Quentin en Yvelines, 2011. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00734327.
Benbouzid, Bilel. "La prévention situationnelle : genèse et développement d’une science pratique." Thesis, Lyon 2, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011LYO20057/document.
In many countries today, situational crime prevention is a strategic research sector in the battle against crime. Originating within the Home Office Research Unit in the UK during the mid 1970s, this ‘new technology’ has the purpose of developing crime prevention solutions by intervening in situations where crime commonly occurs. What has now come to be called “crime science” is based on an array of practical knowledge, evolves between research laboratories and various professional sectors (police, town planning, etc.), uses evidence-based research, and implements its theoretical discoveries in socio-technical innovations (prevention and risk reduction systems). This thesis retraces the development of situational crime prevention technology to have a closer look at the controversies from which it takes its shape. By describing this crime science-in-the-making, from state laboratories and international policy transfers, from research studies and instrumentation, we reveal all the entities (researchers, government, theories, instruments, statistical classes, risk models, offenders, victims, technical standards, etc.) to which situational crime prevention has become tied, and untied. Thus, we demonstrate that concrete links weaved between researchers and their different allies go far beyond personal relationships, touching the very core of the technology. As such, situational crime prevention is constituted as a collective, political entity
Rodriguez, Blanco Maricel. "Du barrage au guichet. Naissance et transformation des mouvements de chômeurs en Argentine (1990 – 2015)." Thesis, Paris Sciences et Lettres (ComUE), 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018PSLEH117.
This thesis discusses the Piquetero movement in Argentina and its successive transformations during the 2000s into an extensive network of service provider organizations throughout the territory from a sociohistorical and ethnographic perspective. This movement was born out of the collective actions of the unemployed and precarious workers in the late 1990s against the effects of "neoliberal" reforms, and takes its name from one of their preferred modes of protest, the roadblock or picket. Since its beginnings, the Piquetero movement has been the subject of a double treatment by the State, between repression and recovery in the context of the establishment of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs. In this new configuration of targeted public action, it is now up to the State to delegate the distribution of social assistance to a network of organizations, given their territorial proximity to the underprivileged populations. However, this thesis shows that this fuzzy wicket role, which tends to introduce in one way or another the competition amid the organizations, has thus quickly contributed to fragment the piquetero space, and produces ambivalent effects on the practices and the trajectories of the participants. The thesis is based on mixed methods, qualitative and quantitative, from a large 40-month field survey conducted between 2000 and 2015 in two Argentinian provinces. On the one hand, through an ethnography and in-depth biographical interviews with leaders, delegates and grassroots activists (N=104), we observed the interactions between these different categories. A prosopography of the leaders (N=76) allowed us, on the other hand, from the statistical methods of factor analysis (ACM) and hierarchical classification (CAH), to report on the structuring of this space of organizations. In the first part, the thesis focuses – with the support of archives and interviews – on the conditions of the gradual crystallization of a social movement into a space of organizations. We sought here to understand the context, the stakes and the means of action of this protest movement, relating its inscription to the evolution since the beginning of the XXth century of the relations between State, political parties and unions. The second part of our thesis is devoted to the analysis of activist practices and forms of supervision within organizations. The opening of the black box of the organizations thus reveals to what extent their internal functioning results from the capacity of a set of intermediaries to carry out a work of representation, mobilization and management of resources among working classes particularly willing to engage in the long term. The statistical examination of the trajectories of leaders also informed us about the resources that were necessary to occupy such a position and also about the effects of their engagement to their individual trajectories. Finally, a third part serves to apprehend associative practices within organizations. Restoring the recruiting logics and the profiles of the recruits has shown in the long term both the conditions of the commitment of these unemployed and precarious workers and the effects on their trajectories. The observation of practices, especially during assemblies, shows the principles of supervision stretched between activism and entrepreneurship which weighed on the participants. If this fraction of precarious people testifies within the working classes of forms of mobilization and resistance particularly exemplary, they also tend to deploy modes of accommodation to organizations, differentiated according to their socialization, and the volume and nature of their resources