Дисертації з теми "Policy scenario"
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1
Melnick, E. S., and D. O. Marchenko. "The alternative policy scenario." Thesis, Вид-во СумДУ, 2011. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/22054.
Повний текст джерела
2
Cazzoli, Lorenzo. "Generalize policy on supporting user scenario." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2017. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/14815/.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
In this thesis we present a way of combining previously learned robot be- havior policies of different users. The main idea is to combine a set of policies, in tabular representation, into a final sub-optimal solution for the problem all users have contributed to. We assume that the features/differences of users are unknown and need to be extracted from the different policies generated from same user. This information is used to weight the importance of a set of actions to sum up two policies.
The proposed approach has been tested on a virtual environment finding out that the combined policy works as a general policy suitable for all users, as it always selects actions that are satisfying the users at the border of the defined sensorial possibilities.
All the assumptions has been finally verified on a real environment finding out all the limitations of the proposed model.
3
Leekley, Edward H. "A scenario generator for public policy and program implementation." Diss., This resource online, 1994. http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-06062008-165432/.
Повний текст джерела
4
Pinchuk, Nataliya. "The scenario analysis ecological and economic efficiency regional policy of Ukraine." Thesis, Сумський державний університет, 2013. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/31702.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
In a crisis situation in Ukraine's economy is worsening many problems in society, including a major problem is the relationship between economic and environmental component. Question detection interdependent impact of economic and ecological processes was the subject of extensive discussion and detailed analysis. This requires solving the problem analysis of ecological and economic efficiency regional policy in Ukraine.
When you are citing the document, use the following link http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/31702
5
Sezgin, Mehmet. "A pattern-matching approach for automated scenario-driven testing of structured computational policy." Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 2001. http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA397521.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Thesis (M.S. in Computer Science) Naval Postgraduate School, Sept. 2001.Thesis advisor(s): Michael, James Bret; Riehle, Richard. "September 2001." Includes bibliographical references (p.135-138). Also available in print.
6
Mbasuen, Timothy Sesugh. "The sustainability assessment of energy policy in Nigeria : scenario planning and integrated modelling." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2013. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:2512a910-2294-4682-a7ef-5f7b791cc1fd.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This thesis presents a novel policy assessment tool that serves as a decision support framework for analysis of energy policy problems involving multilevel, multidimensional and multi-stakeholder complexity. This new approach, The Energy Policy Assessment Technique (E-PAT), integrates System Dynamics Simulation and Multi-Criteria Evaluation models into a unified assessment framework. The E-PAT doubles as a systems-thinking model and a multi-criteria evaluation archetype. The E-PAT is designed for assessing policy issues, particularly those relating to energy planning in a national context. It is a suitable tool for evaluation and selection of optimal policies from competing and conflicting alternatives. To test its robustness and practical application, a case study on energy policy evaluation in Nigeria is carried out with this tool. A model of the Nigerian energy economy was constructed, and three proposed government policies for Sustainable Energy Development were evaluated relative to a Business-As-Usual case. The evaluation process identified âbestâ policy options according to stakeholder viewpoints. The original contribution of this research is the creation of an integrated, transparent and comprehensive assessment tool, and the development of measurable Energy Sustainability Indicators (ESI), to aid policymakers in diverse policy analysis. The new tool is intended to support assessment of energy policies in relation to impacts on the economy, society and environment.
7
Nyasulu, Maganizo Kruger. "Scenario Evaluation of Malawi Energy Policy: LEAP System Modelling Projections from 2008 to 2063." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för geovetenskaper, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-371239.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
National access to modern energy is deemed by Malawi government as the driving force to attain social-economic development. To achieve this, optimal decisions in energy planning and investment are considered important. This study evaluates potential pathways that will inform better policy design and investment option in energy sector. The Integrated Assessment Modelling method has been used to integrate social, economic and environmental variables that affect energy systems, and further analyses potential energy pathways in relation to these earth systems. The Long-range Alternatives Energy Planning system (LEAP) has been used to run a continuous time series from 2008 to 2063 of the three energy policy pathways (scenarios) using: (1) the current Malawi National Policy and Strategies on Energy (MwNEP) (2) the United Nation’s Sustainable Energy for All strategy (SE4ALL) and (3) Business as Usual (REF) scenario. The analysis indicates an exponential growth in energy demand for both MwNEP and SE4ALL scenario with a slight higher demand in SEAll over MwNEP Scenario. In both cases Biomass remains an important energy source beyond the 2030. Thus, the SDG 7 will not be achieved by 2030. Similarly, energy demand trends in MwNEP and SE4ALL scenarios continue to grow beyond available energy stocks and generation capacity which will lead to a shortfall in energy supply. Environmentally, the GHGs emissions in MwNEP are higher than the SE4ALL scenario. This is reflected in the pro-environment policy objective pursued by SE4ALL scenario. In the medium-term LEAP analysis favours advancement of alternative renewable energies at household level like solar photovoltaic (PV) for lighting and sustainable biomass energy for cooking. In the long-run, scaling up the adoption of renewable energy in form of solar, wind and hydro-electricity to meet the energy gap. At the same time, designing and adhering to implementation of sustainable energy plans that cuts energy sources from fossil fuels and allow easy accesses to affordable renewable energies will result in a success of Malawi’s energy system.
8
Flores, Montalvo Andres 1967. "Commercial and informal atmospheric emissions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area : scenario analysis and policy proposals." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/30034.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2003.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 109-112).
The commercial and informal sectors contribute with significant amounts of emissions to the atmospheric pollution problem of the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). It is more the case for some pollutants than for others, but, in any case, policies tackling the emissions of these sectors have been very few, and of very limited effect. Even the measurement of the emissions is believed to be underestimated, especially for the informal sector, which is mostly unaccounted for in the recent emissions inventories developed in the MCMA. This thesis intends to improve the estimation of commercial and informal emissions in MCMA, through a qualitative assessment of the range of emission sources in these sectors, and an emissions model based on the integrated scenario analysis methodology implemented in the Mexico City Program at MIT. The ultimate goal of this research is to propose and evaluate new policies to reduce commercial emissions, both formal and informal, in MCMA.
by Andres Flores Montalvo.
S.M.
9
Mcube, Unathi Unity. "A scenario-based ICT risk assessment approach in local government." Thesis, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10948/7598.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Information Communication Technology (ICT) has become an integral part of conducting business within enterprises including the local government. Local government relies on the use of ICT to ensure that its objectives and goals are accomplished. The effective use of ICT within the context of local government is fundamental for the support, sustainability and growth of municipalities. Benefits associated with the effective use of ICT in local government include but are not limited to accelerated service delivery, efficiency and accountability. While these benefits cannot be disputed, it is important to realise that the use of ICT presents potential risks. Thus, good governance of ICT should be addressed in local government. However, in recent years, the Auditor-General of South Africa (AG) has identified lack of good governance of ICT in local government. Various issues have been identified as emanating from the lack of good governance of ICT and lack of adequate ICT risk assessment is a case in point. In an attempt to address the good governance of ICT local government, various documents have been formulated. However, none of these address how effective management of ICT risks can be achieved. As such, local government lacks the means to effectively address the management of ICT risk which is core to the good governance of ICT. Local government still requires urgent intervention with regard to addressing the activities of managing ICT risks, particularly ICT risk assessment. Moreover, it was revealed that the lack of adequate ICT skills and financial resources in local government elevates this problem. The above-mentioned problem is what has motivated this research study. This dissertation aims to produce an artefact in the form of an approach for ICT risk assessment in local government. It is believed that a customised approach to ICT risk assessment in local government will contribute towards solving the identified problem.
10
Borges, Ana Rita Galrinho. "Catastrophic health care expenditures in Portugal between 2000-2010: Assessing impoverishment, determinants and policy implications." Master's thesis, NSBE - UNL, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/11592.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and EconomicsObjectives: This work assesses the extent and evolution of catastrophic health care expenditures (CHE) in Portugal in the years of 2000, 2005 and 2010, to reveal household factors predicting this outcome, and simulates changes in 2010 CHE levels’ following recent reforms in user charges and prices of pharmaceutical products. Methods: The main contribution of this paper is the calculus and analysis of statistical measures to capture CHE incidence, intensity, income distribution and impoverishment effects on households using INE Household Budget Surveys. A logistic model to determine statistical significance and economic effects of 38 variables on the incidence of CHE is also estimated. Finally, a scenario analysis is presented to analyse reforms concerning user charges and prices of pharmaceuticals. Results: Incidence and intensity of CHE decreased between 2000 and 2010, from 5,005% to 2,439% and 4,693% to 0,334%, respectively. During the period, CHE were concentrated amongst the poorer income quintiles. Statistical significance in CHE prediction for all analysed years was observed for households’ income, smoking and drinking habits, area of the house and secondary education of the household head. Scenario analysis shows that the new levels of user charges in 2012, even if mitigated by the new and enlarged economic exemptions, would increase CHE incidence of 2010 to 3,529%. On the other hand, the reduction in the price of ambulatory pharmaceuticals in 2011 and 2012 is effective in reducing CHE incidence, for price demand elasticities equal or smaller (in absolute value) than 0,4. When the two effects are combined, CHE incidence increases, meaning that reductions in the price of pharmaceuticals are not sufficient to countervail the changes in user charges, even with enlarged economic exemptions.
11
Fan, Alice. "An assessment of environmental impacts of a nextGen implementation scenario and its implications on policy-making." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/57881.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2010.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 109-115).
With demand for aviation projected to grow by 5% per year over the next 20 to 25 years, policy makers must not only consider ways to ensure that the air transportation system can accomodate significant growth, but also how their policy decisions will affect the environment. Because environmental issues are becoming increasingly apparent, the sustainability of policy measures will likely constrain responses to this potential increase in aviation demand. Policy makers will need to consider various trade-offs that come with policy decisions, and find ways to balance the demands of the air transport system with the need to reduce the environmental impact of aviation. This thesis assesses the environmental impacts of implementing a policy scenario, which employs both operational and technological improvments to the air transport system. The impacts are presented in both physical and monetary metrics using the Aviation environmental Portfolio Management Tool, to allow for a comparison of trade-offs among different environmental effects. This thesis discusses the limitations of this particular scenario, while also providing an overview of policy-making models, and the observed weaknesses in current policy-making processed involving technical data. In particular, it identifies the mismatch between needs of those involved in the policy-making process, and the information provided by analysts, which can be an obstacle to developing credible and objective support for a policy proposal. It finally provides suggested methods for improving the relationship between different groups involved in developing policy to allow for better informed decision-making, and a more fluid policy-making process.
by Alice Fan.
S.M.
12
Xu, QIAOQIAO. "Approaches toward a low carbon future for China: Scenario analysis about the provincial level plans." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för geovetenskaper, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-210684.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
As the global warming brings more and more disasters, controlling greenhouse gas emission is one of the main global crucial issues nowadays. As one of the main emitters in the world, China faces more and more international pressure to reduce the emission, so it is urgent to make the transition to a low carbon economy.At the same time, China has been going through the fast urbanization process as shown in the “Northam Curve”, and the current urbanization mode requires the demand of the carbon-intensive consumption, and could lead to the massive carbon emission as well. However, it is contradictory to the long-time sustainable development in China. So, under the current condition, the reduction plan needs to be fit in the Chinese demand, so it is very crucial, and requires innovation and creation to analyze the reduction factor and find the balance point between the urbanization and low carbon development mode. Regarding to the different urbanization rate and economic development modes characters between the East, Central, West part of China, this thesis uses inductive and deductive method to study. Firstly, it chooses one province from each region to investigate. Then it integrated urbanization factor into Kaya equation to study different factors impacts on the carbon dioxide emission in the three sample provinces. It also selected the co-integration econometrics method to study the equilibrium relationship between the carbon dioxide emission and other main factors. Through analyzing the current reduction plan, it explains and forecasts the possible emission in 2015. The result suggests that the anticipated carbon dioxide emission might be able to achieve under the transition to a low carbon economy mode. Different regions should have their own feasible plans through controlling the urbanization rate, slowing the economic development rate and through reducing the energy intensity, improving the energy structure.
13
Itani, Nadine M. "Policy development framework for aviation strategic planning in developing countries." Thesis, Cranfield University, 2015. http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/9217.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
There exists no predefined framework for aviation policy making and
development. While aviation policy planning in most developed countries comes
as a result of institutional and industry coordination and is embedded within
other national policies addressing the welfare and growth of the country, it is
found that in many cases in less developed countries (LDCs), aviation policy
planning is often influenced by political pressures and the interests of fund
donors. The complexity of this situation in the developing countries results in
aviation plans that represent stand alone studies and attempt to find solutions to
specific problems rather than comprehensive aviation plans which fit well the
country‘s competitiveness profile and are properly coordinated with other
national policies for achieving medium and long-term objectives. This study
provides a three-stage policy development framework for aviation strategic
planning based on situational analysis and performance benchmarking
practices in order to assemble policy elements and produce a best-fit aviation
strategy.
The framework builds on study results that indicate an association between air
transport sector performance and aviation policy strategies, arguing that it is not
sufficient to simply describe performance but also to be able to assess it and
understand how policymakers can use strategic planning tools to affect the air
transport industry efficiency levels. This can be achieved by recognizing the
level of the country‘s stage of development and working on enhancing the policy
elements that produce better output and induce more contributions by aviation
to the national economic development and connectivity levels.
The proposed aviation policy development framework is systematic and
continuous. It helps policymakers in LDC to manage uncertainty in complex
situations by allowing them to defend, correct and re-examine the policy actions
based on a forward thinking approach which incorporates the contingency
elements of the policy and tracks the developments that can affect the odds of
its success. The framework‘s elements and its flow of process are explained by
providing an illustrative example applied to the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.
14
Postma, Maarten Jacobus. "Assessment of the economic impact of aids at national and multi-national level development of a scenario-analytic approach to support health-care policy /." [Maastricht : Maastricht : Universiteit Maastricht] ; University Library, Maastricht University [Host], 1998. http://arno.unimaas.nl/show.cgi?fid=8426.
Повний текст джерела
15
Rosen, Cassandra Vivian. "Scenario based lifecycle analysis of greenhouse gas emissions from petroleum-derived transportation fuels in 2050." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/111224.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Thesis: S.M. in Technology and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Technology and Policy Program, 2017.This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.
Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 88-96).
Petroleum-derived fuels made up 93% of the energy demand for the transportation sector in 2013, and are projected to remain a significant source in the future (65% to 90% in the year 2040) [1]. These fuels contribute significantly to global green house gas (GHG) emissions, both from their production and combustion emissions. Production emissions make up one fifth of the emissions associated with the entire petroleum fuel lifecycle. Although the current non-combustion production lifecycle emissions of these fuels are well understood, their future lifecycle emissions have yet to be quantified. In this thesis, a global, scenario-based analysis of petroleum-derived transportation fuels is carried out to estimate lifecycle emissions in the year 2050. The 2050 scenarios differ by the stringency of environmental policies, including no new additional policies, "moderate" new policies, and "'strong" new policies. Data from existing projections for the energy sector in 2050 is used to create lifecycle inventories for the three 2050 scenarios. The production lifecycle emissions for the year 2050 are calculated to be 14.3 - 19.2 g CO2e/MJ for jet fuel, 17.2 - 24.9 g CO2e/MJ for diesel, and 21.1 - 26.8 g CO2e/MJ for gasoline. The production emissions in 2050 could deviate from 2020 values by as much as +20% to -21%, depending on future policy choices. If these production emissions are applied to global fuel demand, the range of emissions reductions from these policy scenarios spans 8.5% of all GHG emissions in 2013.
by Cassandra Vivian Rosen.
S.M. in Technology and Policy
16
Roach, Jesse. "Integrated Surface Water Groundwater Modeling in the Upper Rio Grande in Support of Scenario Analysis." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/194466.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
New and growing demands to finite and fully allocated water resources in the semi-arid southwestern United States mean that existing water resources must be managed with increasing efficiency to minimize shortages and associated social conflict. Computer based simulations can provide a powerful tool to aid in policy related decisions. This dissertation describes the development of a simulation model of the Rio Grande surface water and groundwater system for use in scenario evaluation. The primary model goal is to integrate cross disciplinary science at a basin scale, and make it easily accessible to a wide range of stakeholders. To achieve this at a river basin scale, three existing groundwater models and one surface water model were simplified and combined in a system dynamics framework using the commercial software package Powersim Studio 2005. To this physical model, a simple human behavioral model and user interface was added. The resulting scenario evaluation tool runs 40 year simulations on a laptop computer in tens of seconds, with inputs that are easily changed by non-expert users via a graphic, user friendly interface.
17
Ehrling, Axel. "Energy sources of the future – an explorative scenario analysis of Sweden’s energy security in regard to present energy policy." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för geovetenskaper, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-385517.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Energy has always been an essential commodity, vital for a well-functioning society. Since, the industrialization has fossil fuels been used as man’s main energy source. Consequently, vast amounts of emissions have spread into earth’s atmosphere and lead to an unprecedently quick global warming. Governments are today reacting to climate change, and energy policies to limit the effects are developed. Sweden has since year 2008 established energy policy targets to reduce its emissions. This report looks into outcomes of Swedish energy policy by forecasting scenarios to measure target achievement and effects on Swedish energy security. Energy security has historically been dominated by geopolitical issues and oil, however, today the term has grown to encompass secure access to energy services at a sufficiently low and stable price, in a way that is socially and environmentally acceptable compared to other energy options. Thus, energy security in this report is understood as ‘Ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all’. From this definition are forecasted scenarios developed and analyzed towards an energy security framework consisting of three subcategorize, affordability, reliability and sustainability. The scenarios are made by linear, exponential and logistic trendlines, to cover different expansion patterns. The general outcome of the scenarios suggests that energy security as defined will become more sustainable and reliable at the cost of affordability for energy consumers. However, even though sustainability is increasing are some of the energy policy targets not likely to succeed if business continues as usual.
18
Gawthorpe, Kateřina. "COMPETING CURRENCIES AS AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO TO LEGAL TENDER CLAUSE: MATHEMATICAL PROOF." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2013. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-197885.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Previous literature examining the scenario without the constraint of legal tender law is a rather theoretical analysis of the subject matter. Aside from the theoretical examination of the competition of money this paper offers dynamic structural macroeconomic model based on the money in the utility function. This model compares the current monetary conditions with the potential situation permitting more currencies circulating alongside. The main assumption about individuals' preferences over stable currencies underlines the whole paper with emphasis on the mathematical model. The uniqueness of this model lies in the incorporation of variables affecting respective money demand functions into the utility function of the DSGE model and in the purpose of its use as well as its variables, where representative agent is a household owning a bank rather than a firm. Overall the results of this paper favor the idea of exclusion of the legal tender law in a developed country without severe turmoil. Particularly, the ascent of competition among currencies leads to lower inflation than present scenario. However, final simulations of the model in Matlab supplements such so far "unambiguous" view with skepticism due to possible difficulties during discovery process in such scenario.
19
Bowman, Gary. "An empirical analysis of a scenario-informed strategic planning process : a public sector case." Thesis, University of St Andrews, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10023/1978.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This thesis lies at the nexus of scenario planning and strategy. Scenario planning is a foresight activity used extensively in strategic planning and public policy development to imagine alternative, plausible futures as means to understand the driving forces behind the uncertainties and possibilities of a changing environment. Despite significant application in both private and public sectors, and a growing body of academic and practitioner-orientated literature, little empirical evidence exists about how organisations actually use scenario planning to inform strategy. Moreover, the emerging Strategy-as-Practice (S-as-P) perspective, which has exposed strategy to more sociological pursuits, presented a way of conceiving and studying strategy not as something an organisation has, but rather as something people do. By examining the activities of scenario planning, understanding its use as an example of episodic, interactive strategizing, S-as-P provides a theoretical lens through which to perform a much-needed empirical analysis of the scenario-to-strategy process. A second goal of the thesis is to advance understanding of the S-as-P perspective by addressing recent criticisms as well as contributing to the growing body of practice-based research. The central research question which guides the thesis is, how does an organisation use scenario planning to inform the strategic planning process? To answer this question, the research vehicle is a single, in-depth case study of community planning in Fife, which extends from 1999 until April 2008. A detailed, longitudinal narrative of Fife’s scenario planning and strategy process is presented before using empirical evidence from the case to understand how an organisation manages the scenario planning process, how scenario planning affects policy development, and how cognitive processes manifest physically in an organisation. The thesis concludes that scenario planning created a sensemaking/sensegiving framework that provided structural and interpretive legitimacy which facilitated communicative activities and helped the Fife Partnership understand and improve the interconnectedness of Fife’s public services and community planning process. While contributing to the S-as-P research agenda, the investigation of the scenario-to-strategy process also revealed, and solidified, a number of criticisms that challenge the theoretical, conceptual, and empirical validity of the strategy-as-practice perspective.
20
Pullinger, Martin Iain. "Greening our working lives : the environmental impacts of changing patterns of paid work in the UK and the Netherlands, and implications for working time policy." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/6383.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Paid working patterns are currently regulated by governments around the world for a range of social and economic reasons: to increase labour supply and skills; to provide a strong tax base to support an ageing population; to help people reconcile work and family life over increasingly diversified life courses; and to be in line with the general principle of the activating, employment led welfare state. Environmental considerations rarely feature in the design or evaluation of working time policy. Nevertheless, various authors working on policies for sustainable development argue that reductions in average paid working time could lead to environmental benefits: as people work less, they in turn earn less, and so consume less, resulting in lower environmental impacts from lower levels of production of products. This thesis takes this argument as its starting point, and synthesises these distinct perspectives on working time and its regulation to address two key questions: what level of environmental benefits could arise from such reductions in paid working time?; and what are the implications for the design of working time policy? The research addresses these questions, taking the case of greenhouse gas emissions, and the UK and the Netherlands in the early 2000s as case studies. Using household expenditure survey data and data on product emissions intensities, the relationship between paid working time and emissions is analysed at both the household and national levels. At the household level, statistically and substantively significant correlations are found between higher levels of paid work and higher levels of consumption and so greenhouse gas emissions. The effects on emissions of hypothetical changes in the working patterns of the national populations are then modelled. The research estimates that meeting current national objectives to increase labour market participation rates would increase national greenhouse gas emissions by 0.6-0.7%, a cost that might be considered acceptable if it also achieves its aims of reducing income poverty, benefit dependency, and social exclusion. Meanwhile, widespread reductions in average working hours and increased use of career breaks, with corresponding reductions in income, would reduce national emissions. The scenarios modelled (a 20% reduction in the working hours of full time workers, and increasing use of 3 month career breaks) lead to reductions of 3-4.5% in national emissions, with the corresponding increases in “leisure” time, reductions in income inequality, and reduced gender imbalances in the distribution of paid work potentially also improving wellbeing, social cohesion, and gender equality in work and care. The results indicate that environmental factors warrant consideration in the design and evaluation of working time policy, and that challenging but achievable levels of working time reduction could contribute a small but significant share to meeting greenhouse gas emissions targets. Policy instruments would need to address a range of values, attitudes and norms around employment and consumption, as well as employer and situational factors, if substantial working time reduction were to be achieved. Reconciling diverse environmental, social and economic goals also requires careful policy design, particularly for certain demographic groups such as the low income, who would need financial and other support to turn rights to reduce working time into functional freedoms that they could utilise.
21
Youds, Lorraine Helen. "Sustainability assessment of nuclear power in the UK using an integrated multi-criteria decision-support framework." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2013. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/sustainability-assessment-of-nuclear-power-in-the-uk-using-an-integrated-multicriteria-decisionsupport-framework(cdc0c9fa-7b5d-4761-b51c-0fc4bef23a3f).html.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
In the UK, the debate surrounding energy production lies at the forefront of the political agenda, with growing emphasis on achieving an increasingly sustainable energy mix into the future. The nuclear option is especially debatable - issues such as waste management and decommissioning receive much attention. In addition, the many stakeholders interested in nuclear power display very divergent views on its sustainability. Since the turn of the century, nuclear power has received much attention globally, with many nations’ governments taking consideration of the potential benefits of new nuclear adoption. Conversely, the Fukushima nuclear disaster has led to new nuclear resistance in other nations, such as Germany, where plans have been made to stop nuclear power generation completely. This research aims to help inform the debate on nuclear power and the future UK electricity mix. A multi-criteria decision support framework (developed by the SPRIng Project) has been used for these purposes, taking into account technical, economic, environmental and social criteria.The methodology used in this work has involved: stakeholder consultation; use of future electricity scenarios; sustainability assessment of current and future electricity options (Pressurised Water Reactor, European Pressurised Reactor, European Fast Rector, coal, gas, solar and wind power, and coal carbon capture and storage [CCS] power); assessment of future electricity scenarios based on both sustainability impacts and stakeholder (expert and public) preferences for the sustainability indicators and electricity technologies. The sustainability assessment of future nuclear power options and coal CCS power have been carried out here for the first time in a UK-specific context.Based on the public and expert opinions on the importance of different sustainability indicators, results of the scenario analysis suggest that the scenario with a high penetration of low-carbon technologies (nuclear [60%] and offshore wind power [40%]) is the most sustainable. For the sample considered in this study, this finding is not sensitive to different stakeholder and public opinions on the importance of the sustainability indicators. However, when the stakeholder preferences for individual technologies are considered, scenarios with high penetration of renewables (26-40% solar and 20-48% wind) become the preferred options. This is due to the favourable stakeholder opinion on solar and wind power. In that case, the scenario with high penetration of nuclear is never the preferred option due to the low to moderate stakeholder preference for nuclear power.Therefore, the results from this research suggest that the ‘sustainability’ of different electricity options and scenarios is highly dependent on stakeholder preferences and priorities. Thus, for successful future deployment of these options and implementation of energy policy measures, transparency of information on the impacts of electricity options is key in ensuring that stakeholder opinions are founded in the actual rather than the perceived impacts of these options.
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Kolbe, Elizabeth Leigh. "Visualizing and Quantifying a Normative Scenario for Agriculture in Northeast Ohio." The Ohio State University, 2013. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1366553296.
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Johnson, Erica H. "Willingness to pay for health risk reductions : the importance of scenario adjustment, household structure and type of disease /." Thesis, Connect to title online (Scholars' Bank) Connect to title online (ProQuest), 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/1794/10226.
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Kongmanee, Chaiya. "Dépendance au sentier et changement agraire : une analyse institutionnelle de l’économie hévéicole au sud de la Thaïlande." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Montpellier, SupAgro, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015NSAM0041.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Cette thèse a pour objectif de présenter et donner du sens aux dynamiques de changement agraire au sud de la Thaïlande où l'hévéa est une culture dominante. Elle vise à fournir des éléments aux décideurs politiques pour réfléchir aux orientations futures de l'économie hévéicole thaïlandaise. J'ai appliqué une analyse statistique multivariée et une classification systématique pour caractériser les trajectoires de 220 exploitations hévéicoles. J'ai également analysé l'évolution des contrats de métayage pour la saignée des hévéas à travers des entretiens individuels, des enquêtes et une revue de la littérature. Un cadre d'analyse basé sur la dépendance au sentier a été appliqué pour comprendre comment les institutions et leur reproduction ont influencé les trajectoires observées et les contrats de métayage. J'ai identifié six trajectoires de transformation des exploitations entre 1990 et 2010. Deux trajectoires montrent un déclin de la surface des exploitations et/ou du recours à de la main d'œuvre rémunérée dans les exploitations de taille moyenne (10.5%) et de petite taille (25%). Trois trajectoires montrent un accroissement de la surface et/ou du recours à de la main d'œuvre rémunérée. Elles concernent des entreprises familiales agricoles de taille moyenne (14.5%), de grande taille (4.1%) et des exploitations évoluant vers des entreprises patronales (7.7%). Ces trajectoires opposées témoignent d'une polarisation croissante des exploitations hévéicoles. 38.2% des exploitations suivent une trajectoire de stabilité, sans changement dans la taille des exploitations ni dans la structure du travail. Cependant, ce sont de petites exploitations susceptibles de suivre une trajectoire de déclin. Même si la disponibilité en travail et les termes du contrat ont évolué, le métayage est quasiment l'unique contrat de travail pour la récolte du latex depuis le début de l'hévéaculture en Thaïlande. Les conventions contractuelles de travail pour la saignée sont dans une situation de verrouillage institutionnel sous la forme actuelle des contrats de métayage du fait de mécanismes d'auto-renforcement, de fonctionnement et de légitimation. J'ai identifié un ensemble de règles expliquant la prédominance de ces contrats de métayage qui permettent de mobiliser le travail disponible et d'assurer une grande résilience face aux variations et incertitudes des conditions sociales et économiques.La dépendance au sentier permet d'interpréter la polarisation des exploitations et le verrouillage institutionnel des contrats de métayage comme le résultat d'un processus d'auto renforcement conduisant à une reproduction institutionnelle. La thèse montre que la période de contrôle de la production du caoutchouc naturel (1934-1946) est un point critique à l'origine d'une expansion importante des nouvelles plantations et d'un cadre institutionnel ayant favorisé la polarisation qui s'est reproduite seule jusqu'à présent par le mécanisme d'auto renforcement. La polarisation du foncier a un effet positif sur la stabilisation des contrats de métayage pour la saignée. De plus, les exploitations en expansion emploient davantage de main d'œuvre rémunérée pour la saignée induisant une demande accrue alors qu'une offre croissante de saigneurs qualifiés est apportée par les petites exploitations sur le déclin. Les contrats de métayage assurent la disponibilité de la main d'œuvre rémunérée et renforce simultanément la concentration foncière.Basés sur les résultats de l'analyse du changement agraire, trois scénarios de politique sont proposés pour l'avenir de la filière hévéa: i) poursuivre la politique actuelle, ii) inverser le processus de polarisation et iii) faire face aux contraintes globales. Le scénario politique visant à inverser le processus de polarisation est privilégié compte tenu de ses conséquences sur la croissance économique, le bien-être social et la durabilité du développement de la filière hévéaThis Ph.D. work aims at exposing, and giving sense to the dynamics of agrarian change in Southern Thailand where rubber is a major crop. It intends to provide elements for decision makers to reflect on the future directions of the Thai rubber economy. I applied a sequence of multivariate analysis and systematic clustering to characterize the trajectories of 220 rubber farms. I also analyzed the evolution of share-tapping arrangements though personal interviews, survey and literature review. A path dependence analytical framework was then applied to identify and characterize how institutional settings and institutional reproduction shaped the observed trajectories and share-tapping arrangements. I identify six significant farm transformation trajectories between 1990 and 2010. Two trajectories show a decline in landholding and/or hired labor related to medium farms (10.5%) and small farms (25%). Three trajectories show growing landholding size and/or use of hired labor. They concern growing medium family farm enterprise (14.5%), large family farm enterprise (4.1%) and farms moving towards patronal enterprise (7.7%). These opposing trajectories witness a continuing polarization of rubber farms. 38.2% of farms follow a trajectory of stability with no change in farm size and labor structure. However, these are small farms and present a risk to follow the trajectories of farm decline. Labor availability and share-tapping arrangements evolved over time but share-tapping remains the main, almost unique, labor contract for harvesting since the beginning of rubber cultivation in Thailand. Labor contracting arrangements are in an institutional lock-in situation under the current form of share-tapping through three self-reinforcing economic, functional and legitimating mechanisms. I identified a set of rules that could explain the prevalence of the share-tapping arrangement in pursuing the exploitation of available labor force and ensuring high resilience to variations and uncertainty in social and economic conditions. Path dependence explains farm polarization and the institutional lock-in of share-tapping as the results of self-reinforcement mechanisms leading to institutional reproduction. The thesis shows that the period of rubber control during 1934-1946 was a critical juncture resulting in large expansion of new plantings and an institutional setting favoring polarization that has reproduced itself through self-reinforcing mechanisms until now. Land polarization had a positive effect on the stability of share-tapping contracts. Due to polarization, farms with growing landholding employ more hired labor, inducing an increasing demand while an increasing supply of skilled tappers is provided by declining small farms. The current share-tapping arrangements ensure the availability of paid labor and simultaneously reinforce land concentration. Based on the results of this analysis of agrarian change, three alternative policy scenarios are: continuation of present policies, reverting polarization and coping with global constraints. The policy scenario of reverting polarization is suggested as an option considering its consequences on economic growth, social welfare and sustainable agricultural development in the rubber sector
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Vaišnoras, Tomas. "Eenergetinio saugumo scenarijai: Lietuvos, Latvijos ir Lenkijos atvejis." Master's thesis, Lithuanian Academic Libraries Network (LABT), 2010. http://vddb.laba.lt/obj/LT-eLABa-0001:E.02~2010~D_20100616_111730-69988.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Susidomėjimas ateities studijomis kaip moksline veikla ypač padidėjo pastaraisiais metais, tai paskatino poreikis prognozuoti galimus socialinius, ekonominius, ekologinius ar politinius pokyčius sparčiai besivystančiame pasaulyje. Socialiniuose bei politikos moksluose prognostiniai metodai ilgą laiką buvo laikomi nepatikimais, tačiau, pastaruoju metu, suvokdami prognozavimą kaip neatsiejamą strateginio planavimo dalį politinių procesų tyrėjai vis dažniau taiko scenarijų konstravimo metodą, mėgindami atrasti galimus ateities įvykių raidos variantus.
Patikimas energijos išteklių tiekimas yra vienas pagrindinių valstybės saugumo garantų. Ateities energetikos sektoriaus vystymasis priklauso nuo daugelio kintamųjų, tokių kaip augantis energijos poreikis, aplinkosaugos reikalavimai, technologinis progresas, liberalizavimo procesai ir t.t., todėl norint tinkamai pasiruošti galimiems pokyčiams reikalingas nuoseklus ir racionalus politinis planavimas. Labai svarbu įvertinti būsimus iššūkius, galimybes bei tikėtinas raidos kryptis, o scenarijų kūrimas yra tinkamiausias metodinis įrankis šiems tikslams pasiekti.
Pagrindinis darbo tikslas yra sukonstruoti galimus Lietuvos, Latvijos ir Lenkijos energetinio saugumo scenarijus. Norint pasiekti šį tikslą pirmiausiai reikia apsibrėžti energetinio saugumo sąvoką bei scenarijų konstravimo metodą. Svarbu apžvelgti visų trijų valstybių energetikos sektorius, jų stipriąsias ir silpnąsias puses. Kadangi Lietuva, Latvija ir Lenkija yra Europos... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]Over the last decade policy analysts around the world demonstrate a growing interest in future studies. It is influenced by the need to foresee economic, social or political changes in rapidly developing world. For a long time future studies in political and social sciences were considered unreliable. However, in the recent years, foresight became an important part of strategic planning, thus scenario building method is more and more often used by policy analysts. Uninterrupted and reliable energy supply is one of the main pillars of country’s national security. Future development of the energy sector depends on many variables such as the growing energy demand, the technological development, the liberalization of the energy markets etc. Therefore, if countries want to prepare properly for possible changes, consistent and rational political planning is needed. It is very important to assess the future challenges, possibilities and the most likely trends of development, whereas scenario building is the most suitable method for reaching these objectives. The main objective of this research paper is to build possible energy security scenarios for Lithuania, Latvia and Poland. First of all, to achieve this objective one needs to define energy security and scenario building method. It is also important to review the energy sector of each of the three countries, in order to find strengths, weaknesses and main threats to their security. The EU common energy policy has a direct... [to full text]
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Zhang, Wei, Long Chen, Huanhuan Wang, Ying Li, Gengchong Zhen, Xuejie Ye, Yindong Tong, Yan Zhu, and Xuejun Wang. "Economic Evaluation of Health Benefits of Mercury Emission Controls for China and the Neighboring Countries in East Asia." Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University, 2017. https://dc.etsu.edu/etsu-works/2619.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Globally, coal-fired power plant (CFPP) is a major source of mercury. China is developing its first National Implementation Plan on Mercury Control, which priorities the control of emissions from CFPPs. While social benefits play an important role in designing environmental policies in China, the benefits associated with mercury control are not yet understood, mainly due to the scientific challenges to trace mercury's emissions-to-impacts path. This study evaluates the benefits of mercury reductions in China's CFPPs for China and its three neighboring countries in East Asia. Four policy scenarios are analyzed following the policies-to-impacts path, which links a global atmospheric model to health benefit analysis models to estimate the economic gains from avoided mercury-related adverse health outcomes under each scenario, and take into account key uncertainties in the path. Under the most stringent scenario, the benefits of mercury reduction by 2030 are projected to be $432 billion (95% CI: $166–941 billion), with the benefits for China and the neighboring countries accounting for 96% and 4% of the total benefits, respectively. Policy scenario analysis indicates that coal washing generates the greatest benefits in the near term, whereas upgrading air pollution control devices maximizes health benefits in the long term.
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CAPRIOLI, CATERINA. "Agent-based model and Geographic Information System (GIS): an integrated approach to test sustainable policies and urban transformation scenarios." Doctoral thesis, Politecnico di Torino, 2022. http://hdl.handle.net/11583/2964778.
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Foley, Duncan K., Armon Rezai, and Lance Taylor. "The social cost of carbon emissions: Seven propositions." Elsevier, 2013. http://epub.wu.ac.at/4021/1/RezaiSeven.pdf.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Determining the social cost of carbon emissions (SCC) is a crucial step in the economic analysis of climate change policy as the US government's recent decision to use a range of estimates of the SCC centered at $77/tC (or, equivalently, $21/tCO2) in cost-benefit analyses of proposed
emission-control legislation underlines. This note reviews the welfare economics theory fundamental to the estimation of the SCC in both static and intertemporal contexts, examining the effects of assumptions about the typical agent's pure rate of time preference and elasticity of marginal felicity of consumption, production and mitigation technology, and the magnitude of climate-change damage on estimates of the SCC. We high-light three key conclusions: (i) an estimate of the SCC is conditional on
a specific policy scenario, the details of which must be made explicit for the estimate to be meaningful; (ii) the social discount rate relevant to intertemporal allocation decisions also depends on the policy scenario; and
(iii) the SCC is uniquely defined only for policy scenarios that lead to an efficient growth path because marginal costs and benefits of emission mitigation diverge on inefficient growth paths. We illustrate these analytical
conclusions with simulations of a growth model calibrated to the world economy. (authors' abstract)
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Gill, Rupinder S. "Intrusion detection techniques in wireless local area networks." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2009. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/29351/1/Rupinder_Gill_Thesis.pdf.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This research investigates wireless intrusion detection techniques for detecting attacks on IEEE 802.11i Robust Secure Networks (RSNs). Despite using a variety of comprehensive preventative security measures, the RSNs remain vulnerable to a number of attacks. Failure of preventative measures to address all RSN vulnerabilities dictates the need for a comprehensive monitoring capability to detect all attacks on RSNs and also to proactively address potential security vulnerabilities by detecting security policy violations in the WLAN. This research proposes novel wireless intrusion detection techniques to address these monitoring requirements and also studies correlation of the generated alarms across wireless intrusion detection system (WIDS) sensors and the detection techniques themselves for greater reliability and robustness. The specific outcomes of this research are: A comprehensive review of the outstanding vulnerabilities and attacks in IEEE 802.11i RSNs. A comprehensive review of the wireless intrusion detection techniques currently available for detecting attacks on RSNs. Identification of the drawbacks and limitations of the currently available wireless intrusion detection techniques in detecting attacks on RSNs. Development of three novel wireless intrusion detection techniques for detecting RSN attacks and security policy violations in RSNs. Development of algorithms for each novel intrusion detection technique to correlate alarms across distributed sensors of a WIDS. Development of an algorithm for automatic attack scenario detection using cross detection technique correlation. Development of an algorithm to automatically assign priority to the detected attack scenario using cross detection technique correlation.
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Gill, Rupinder S. "Intrusion detection techniques in wireless local area networks." Queensland University of Technology, 2009. http://eprints.qut.edu.au/29351/.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This research investigates wireless intrusion detection techniques for detecting attacks on IEEE 802.11i Robust Secure Networks (RSNs). Despite using a variety of comprehensive preventative security measures, the RSNs remain vulnerable to a number of attacks. Failure of preventative measures to address all RSN vulnerabilities dictates the need for a comprehensive monitoring capability to detect all attacks on RSNs and also to proactively address potential security vulnerabilities by detecting security policy violations in the WLAN. This research proposes novel wireless intrusion detection techniques to address these monitoring requirements and also studies correlation of the generated alarms across wireless intrusion detection system (WIDS) sensors and the detection techniques themselves for greater reliability and robustness. The specific outcomes of this research are: A comprehensive review of the outstanding vulnerabilities and attacks in IEEE 802.11i RSNs. A comprehensive review of the wireless intrusion detection techniques currently available for detecting attacks on RSNs. Identification of the drawbacks and limitations of the currently available wireless intrusion detection techniques in detecting attacks on RSNs. Development of three novel wireless intrusion detection techniques for detecting RSN attacks and security policy violations in RSNs. Development of algorithms for each novel intrusion detection technique to correlate alarms across distributed sensors of a WIDS. Development of an algorithm for automatic attack scenario detection using cross detection technique correlation. Development of an algorithm to automatically assign priority to the detected attack scenario using cross detection technique correlation.
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Ratcliffe, John S. "Built environment futures : a general examination of the role of future studies in built environment policy formulation, with a particular appraisal of the use of the foresight principal through scenario planning techniques in the framing, testing and imp." Thesis, Ulster University, 2001. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.394617.
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Rabinowitz, Samuel D. "Three scenarios for US energy policy in the Arctic Region." Diss., Connect to the thesis, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10066/3657.
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Chatzinikolaou, Parthena <1983>. "Evaluation of Ecosystem Services production under different Agricultural Policy Scenarios." Doctoral thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2016. http://amsdottorato.unibo.it/7447/1/Chatzinikolaou_Parthena_tesi.pdf.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The objective of this study is to test a methodology for the classification of areas according to the provision of ecosystem services (ES) and for the evaluation of the effects of different agricultural policy scenarios on such classification. The framework was applied to the classification of the 26 municipalities of the province of Ferrara, Italy. The case study area can be considered a traditional cultural landscape, characterised by historical-cultural sites, agricultural areas and protected areas of natural importance. The evaluation focuses on the different categories of ES and applies a set of indicators available from secondary data sources assessing different aspects of ES. From the policy perspective, the context was represented by the pre-2014 CAP and represented the Baseline scenario. In the next stage, the model simulated a New CAP scenario, based on the measures of the RDP 2014-2020 that are addressed on restoring and enhancing ecosystems. The classification approach in each of the two scenarios was implemented under two weighting solutions. As a general remark, it is observed that the provision of ES varies greatly from one municipality to the next. All the municipalities offer a significant number of provisioning and cultural services, mainly connected to recreational opportunities. From the experience carried out in this study, we can conclude that the application of the PROMETHEE, in particular with the integration of the weights for the ES indicators, has shown the potential to support the characterisation of agricultural land in terms of the provision of multiple ES. The study presents MCDA as a suitable tool to illustrate the differences in the provision of ES in different case study areas. To some extent, in spite of the limitations of this work, this also applies to analyzing the consequences of different agricultural policy scenarios in the provision of these services.
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Chatzinikolaou, Parthena <1983>. "Evaluation of Ecosystem Services production under different Agricultural Policy Scenarios." Doctoral thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2016. http://amsdottorato.unibo.it/7447/.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The objective of this study is to test a methodology for the classification of areas according to the provision of ecosystem services (ES) and for the evaluation of the effects of different agricultural policy scenarios on such classification. The framework was applied to the classification of the 26 municipalities of the province of Ferrara, Italy. The case study area can be considered a traditional cultural landscape, characterised by historical-cultural sites, agricultural areas and protected areas of natural importance. The evaluation focuses on the different categories of ES and applies a set of indicators available from secondary data sources assessing different aspects of ES. From the policy perspective, the context was represented by the pre-2014 CAP and represented the Baseline scenario. In the next stage, the model simulated a New CAP scenario, based on the measures of the RDP 2014-2020 that are addressed on restoring and enhancing ecosystems. The classification approach in each of the two scenarios was implemented under two weighting solutions. As a general remark, it is observed that the provision of ES varies greatly from one municipality to the next. All the municipalities offer a significant number of provisioning and cultural services, mainly connected to recreational opportunities. From the experience carried out in this study, we can conclude that the application of the PROMETHEE, in particular with the integration of the weights for the ES indicators, has shown the potential to support the characterisation of agricultural land in terms of the provision of multiple ES. The study presents MCDA as a suitable tool to illustrate the differences in the provision of ES in different case study areas. To some extent, in spite of the limitations of this work, this also applies to analyzing the consequences of different agricultural policy scenarios in the provision of these services.
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Osorio, Fernández André Nicolás. "Impacto de la política macroprudencial en la economía peruana: un modelo semi-estructural." Bachelor's thesis, Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (UPC), 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10757/653970.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
El presente documento investiga los efectos de la política macroprudencial, medida por el requerimiento de capital sobre la economía peruana. Este estudio adapta y estima un modelo semi-estructural a la economía peruana, incorporando un instrumento de política macroprudencial y el sector crediticio. Para su estimación se utilizan datos de frecuencia trimestral y se estima mediante el Método Generalizado de Momentos. Se encuentra que el requerimiento de capital tiene un efecto negativo sobre el crecimiento del crédito y producto, y sobre la inflación. Además, mediante un análisis de escenarios se encuentra que los costos de la política macroprudencial resultan mayores que los de política monetaria. Por último, se encuentran indicios de que la política macroprudencial y monetaria deben coordinarse.This document investigates the effects of macroprudential policy on the Peruvian economy, measured as the capital requirement ratio. This study adapts and estimates a semi-structural model to the Peruvian economy, incorporating a macroprudential policy instrument and a credit sector. The model is estimated using quarterly frequency data. It is estimated using the Generalized Method of Moments. The capital requirement has a negative effect on the growth of credit and product, and on inflation. Furthermore, through a scenario analysis, it is found that the costs of macroprudential policy are higher than those of monetary policy. Finally, there are signs that macroprudential and monetary policy need to be coordinated.
Trabajo de investigación
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De, Cian Enrica <1980>. "Endogenous technical change and climate policy: econometric analisys and stabilization scenarios." Doctoral thesis, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10579/698.
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Merkes, Monika, and monika@melbpc org au. "A longer working life for Australian women of the baby boom generation? � Women�s voices and the social policy implications of an ageing female workforce." La Trobe University. School of Public Health, 2003. http://www.lib.latrobe.edu.au./thesis/public/adt-LTU20051103.104704.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
With an increasing proportion of older people in the Australian population and increasing health and longevity, paid work after the age of 65 years may become an option or a necessity in the future. The focus of this research is on Australian women of the baby boom generation, their working futures, and the work-retirement decision. This is explored both from the viewpoint of women and from a social policy perspective. The research draws on Considine�s model of public policy, futures studies, and Beck�s concept of risk society. The research comprises three studies. Using focus group research, Study 1 explored the views of Australian women of the baby boom generation on work after the age of 65 years. Study 2 aimed to explore current thinking on the research topic in Australia and overseas. Computer-mediated communication involving an Internet website and four scenarios for the year 2020 were used for this study. Study 3 consists of the analysis of quantitative data from the Healthy Retirement Project, focusing on attitudes towards retirement, retirement plans, and the preferred and expected age of retirement. The importance of choice and a work � life balance emerged throughout the research. Women in high-status occupations were found to be more likely to be open to the option of continuing paid work beyond age 65 than women in low-status jobs. However, the women were equally likely to embrace future volunteering. The research findings suggest that policies for an ageing female workforce should be based on the values of inclusiveness, fairness, self-determination, and social justice, and address issues of workplace flexibility, equality in the workplace, recognition for unpaid community and caring work, opportunities for life-long learning, complexity and inequities of the superannuation system, and planning for retirement. Further, providing a guaranteed minimum income for all Australians should be explored as a viable alternative to the current social security system.
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Vallejo-Rojas, Virginia. "Active transformative pathways for local agri-food systems : drawing and applying an integrated framework to assess agri-food systems vulnerability under the political paradigm of food sovereignty in Ecuadorian Andes." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/398538.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Taking into account the limitations of official approaches for addressing agri-food research, as well as their associated policies to tackle the problems of hunger and vulnerability of agri-food systems to global change, it becomes necessary to consider new frameworks and alternative policies for research and management of agri-food systems. With this thesis we contribute to the advances of agri-food research by rethinking the way of conceptualizing the agri-food system and by designing and testing analysis tools capable to link the research process with the management dynamics found in the local territory. We focus our attention on those linked to the political paradigm of food sovereignty. To achieve this objective we adopted a deductive and inductive method of research, organized in three phases. During the first phase, and under the wider umbrella of Sociology of Agriculture and Food, we developed a conceptual and theoretical framework which integrates systemic thinking and development studies capable to analyze the political paradigm of food sovereignty. For this purpose, we linked the approach focused in the analysis of socio-ecological systems (SES) with the vulnerability approach focused in the analysis of actors¿ dynamics. As a result, we have obtained an integrate framework that address the ecological and social dimensions of agri-food systems. During the second phase, we tested the framework developed in an empirical case study of a local agri-food system of the canton of Loja, located at the Southern Ecuadorian Andean region. The case is of particular interest due to the recent consideration of comunas and barrios as basic units for citizen participation within decentralized autonomous governments; and, the parallel process of creation of new collective action organizations, such as the recently conformed Agroecological Network of Loja (RAL). Using empirical data obtained from a survey conducted between December 2013 and March 2014 based on questionnaires to households (N = 116) and interviews to key informants (N = 14). We analyzed the role of social and institutional factors on the local agri-food system configuration taking into account the pillars of food sovereignty within the analysis. The results showed the significant, but differentiated, role of institutions (Agroecological Network of Loja), social groups (Saraguro indigenous culture) and income generation strategies on the agri-food system configuration. During the third phase, we assessed the future vulnerability vs resilience of local agri-food system through a participatory scenario development process. Using data obtained from semi-structured interviews (N = 14 and N = 25) and two workshops we analyzed the future trajectories of transformation for the local agri-food system under multiple ecological, socio-economic and political drivers of change. Four scenarios were envisioned by local actors. This assessment showed how drivers of change can affect different components of the local agri-food system when it is conceptualized as SES; and, how different perspectives contribute to build different future trajectories of active transformation. Overall, the results of the research process emphasize the role played by actors (understood as an intersectional group where gender takes meaning from its intersection with ethnicity and class) and novel institutional arrangements action to star the active transformation of agri-food systems in the marginal Andes. These findings have implications in agri-food systems policy design at local level, where the local peasant initiatives of social innovation have to be seen as potential mean to achieve the materialization of the political paradigm of food sovereignty within Andean agri-food system.Frente a las limitaciones tanto de los enfoques oficiales para la investigación agroalimentaria como de las políticas asociadas para abordar el problema del hambre y la vulnerabilidad de los sistemas agroalimentarios al cambio global, se hace necesario considerar nuevos marcos de análisis y políticas alternativas para el estudio y la gestión de los sistemas agroalimentarios. Con este trabajo de tesis nos proponemos contribuir al avance de la investigación agroalimentaria repensado la forma de conceptualizar el sistema agroalimentario y diseñando herramientas de análisis que vinculen el proceso de investigación con las dinámicas de gestión encontradas en el territorio local, enfocándonos en aquellas vinculadas con la soberanía alimentaria. Para alcanzar este objetivo hemos realizado un proceso (inductivo y deductivo) bajo el paraguas de la sociología de la agricultura y la alimentación, que hemos llevado a cabo en tres fases de investigación. Durante la primera fase, hemos desarrollado un marco teórico y metodológico que integra el pensamiento sistémico y estudios del desarrollo bajo el paradigma político de la soberanía alimentaria. Con este fin hemos vinculado el enfoque centrado en el análisis de los sistemas socio-ecológicos (SES) con el enfoque de vulnerabilidad centrado en el análisis de la dinámica de los actores. Como resultado hemos obtenido un marco integrado que aborda las dimensiones ecológica y social de los sistemas agroalimentarios, tal y como lo requiere el paradigma político de la soberanía alimentaria. Durante la segunda fase, hemos aplicado empíricamente el marco desarrollado en el sistema agroalimentario del cantón Loja, ubicado en los Andes del sur de Ecuador. Este caso de estudio es de particular interés debido a la reciente consideración de las comunas y barrios como unidades básicas para la participación ciudadana dentro de los gobiernos autónomos descentralizados; y, paralelamente, a la creación de nuevos procesos de acción colectiva, como la Red Agroecológica Loja (RAL). Usando datos empíricos obtenidos de cuestionarios a hogares campesino (N = 116) y entrevistas en profundidad a informantes clave (N = 14), realizada entre diciembre de 2013 y marzo de 2014, analizamos el rol de los factores sociales e institucionales sobre la configuración del sistema agroalimentario integrando dentro del análisis los pilares de la soberanía alimentaria. Este análisis mostró el rol significativo, pero diferenciado, de las instituciones (Red Agroecológica Loja), grupos sociales (cultura indígena Saraguro) y las estrategias de generación de ingresos para dar lugar a la configuración del sistema agroalimentario local. Durante la tercera fase, evaluamos la vulnerabilidad vs resiliencia del sistema agroalimentario local mediante un proceso de análisis de escenarios participativos. Hemos analizado las futuras trayectorias de transformación del sistema agroalimentario local bajo múltiples conductores de cambio (de tipo ecológico, socio-económico y político) mediante el análisis de datos obtenidos a partir de entrevistas semi-estructuradas (N = 14 y N = 25) y dos talleres. Los actores locales visionaron cuatro posibles futuros escenarios. Nuestra evaluación muestra cómo los conductores de cambio afectan los diferentes componentes del sistema agroalimentario local cuando se lo conceptualiza como SES; y, cómo las diferentes perspectivas de los actores construyen diferentes trayectorias para la transformación activa del sistema. En general, los resultados del proceso de investigación enfatizan el rol que desempeñan los actores (entendido como un grupo interseccional donde el género se concibe a partir de su intersección con la etnicidad y la clase) y los nuevos arreglos de acción institucional para iniciar la transformación activa del sistema agroalimentario en los sectores marginales andinos.
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Christmann, Olivia, and Laurent Warlouzet. "Scenarios of "Europe-puissance" : the French foreign policy in Europe by 2020." Universität Potsdam, 2006. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/texte_eingeschraenkt_welttrends/2010/4839/.
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Song, Xiang Ph D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "Scenarios discovery : robust transportation policy analysis in Singapore using microscopic traffic simulator." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/82852.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Thesis (S.M. in Transportation)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2013.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 99-101).
One of the main challenges of making strategic decisions in transportation is that we always face a set of possible future states due to deep uncertainty in traffic demand. This thesis focuses on exploring the application of model-based decision support techniques which characterize a set of future states that represent the vulnerabilities of the proposed policy. Vulnerabilities here are interpreted as states of the world where the proposed policy fails its performance goal or deviates significantly from the optimum policy due to deep uncertainty in the future. Based on existing literature and data mining techniques, a computational model-based approach known as scenario discovery is described and applied in an empirical problem. We investigated the application of this new approach in a case study based on a proposed transit policy implemented in Marina Bay district of Singapore. Our results showed that the scenario discovery approach performs well in finding the combinations of uncertain input variables that will result in policy failure.
by Xiang Song.
S.M.in Transportation
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Huang, Cunrui. "The health effects of temperature : current estimates, future projections, and adaptation strategies." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2013. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/64353/1/Cunrui_Huang_Thesis.pdf.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field.
The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options.
Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement.
Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures.
The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells.
Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options.
In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase.
Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.
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Sweeney, John A. "Playing with Geoengineered Futures| Excogitations on Scenarios, Politics, and Postnormal Potentialities." Thesis, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, 2019. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10977788.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Given the terrifying potentialities linked to global warming, some have suggested that the only means of abating a worst-case scenario is to double down, so to speak. Geoengineering is the intentional manipulation and augmentation of the global climate system. Critics and enthusiasts have commenced a lively debate around this complex issue, and scenarios have recently emerged as a constitutive practice to confront the uncertainties permeating research, implementation, and prospective governance. Using a synthesis of critical political frames to engage with a range of geoengineered imaginaries, this dissertation employs both textual and practice-based modes of research to argue that there are more dynamic and efficacious means to engage people in thinking through the radical possibilities and postnormal potentialities inherent to geoengineering. Turning to games and deploying play as a modality for experimentation, this dissertation assembles a design for exploring the core themes of the debate and enacting an embodied politics for geoengineering. GeoFutr is an alternative futures-driven gaming platform designed to critique, create, and ultimately contest geoengineered imaginaries.
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Trofimtseva, Olga [Verfasser]. "Evolving market and policy scenarios for Ukrainian grain and oilseed trade / Olga Trofimtseva." Aachen : Shaker, 2012. http://d-nb.info/1063266041/34.
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MAZZOCCHETTI, ANDREA. "Fiscal-Monetary Policy Scenarios and Securitisation Experiments in the Eurace Agent-Based Model." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Genova, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/11567/988067.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This thesis addressed two macro topics, i.e. fiscal and monetary policy making during recessions and the financial practise of securitisation, with the objective to contribute to the current debate and introduce novel aspects to the existing literature. The study of the impact of public policies pursued by the government and central bank on economic dynamics has incread its relevence, in particular in the aftermath of great financial crisis of 2007/9 and during the European soverign debt crisis. The securitisation process is considered a major triggering factor of the subprime mortgage crisis and still a possible source of financial instability. I delve into those topics using the large-scale agent-based and stock-flow consistent macroeconomic model and simulator EURACE, that has been enriched with the introduction of several fiscal and monetary policy choices and a securitisation process. The thesis discusses the advantages given by the Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) and the stock-flow consistent (SFC) approaches with respect to the mainstream dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and show the main innovations of the enriched EURACE model compared to the existing agent-based models. I present in details the two main topics covered by the thesis and the results of computational experiments. Regarding the fiscal and monetary policiy scenarios, I set up an experiment with two base policy scenarios, i.e., stability and growth pact and fiscal compact, incrementally enriching them with complementary policies which relax fiscal rigidity and introduce quantitative easing. Results show that budgetary rigour performs well only if some mechanisms of fiscal relaxation and monetary accommodation are considered during bad times, thus confirming in a richer and more realistic model setting the fundamental tenet of Keynesian economics about the importance of sustaining aggregate demand during recessions. Concering the securitisation experiments, I enhanced EURACE by including a financial vehicle corporation (FVC), that buys loans and mortgages from banks and issues ABSs and MBSs, and a mutual fund, that invests both in ABSs and MBSs. By means of securitisation, banks conduct regulatory capital arbitrage in order to lend more. Results show that different levels of securitisation propensity are able to affect credit and business cycles in different manners. On one side, securitisation increases banks’ lending activity, influencing positively investment and consumption. On the other side, the increased amount of credit amplifies the negative shocks, due to higher loans write-offs probability, triggered by the boosted leding activity. The predominance of one effect on the other depends on the level of securitisation propensity and the time span considered.
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Conklin, Christopher Ryan 1974. "Using scenarios in regional strategic transportation planning : an evolving methodology." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1999. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/80605.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering; and, (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Technology and Policy Program, 1999.Includes bibliographical references (p. 249-253).
by Christopher Ryan Conklin.
S.M.
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Velasco, Martinez Guillermo. "Understanding the generation of research and innovation policy advice with foresight processes." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2017. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/understanding-the-generation-of-research-and-innovation-policy-advice-with-foresight-processes(cbfdf17f-64a4-44fb-b36a-5ad312f66d31).html.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The study of foresight methodology has traditionally focused on the anticipation and development of future scenarios. It is somewhat surprising that, despite the impact that the advice generated with foresight may have had on Research and Innovation(R&I) policy action, the analysis of the process whereby foresight actually creates policy recommendations has so far been ignored in the literature. This thesis explores this process, trying to identify those elements that have a greater influence in the final advice characteristics. The research draws on the study of two European cases, which are analysed with very different methods. The first case is addressed with critical discourse analysis, which constitutes a methodological innovation in the area of foresight evaluation. The second case is explored through action research, which facilitated an in-depth examination of the foresight process and an exhaustive tracking of the activities that gave rise to the final recommendations. In both cases special attention is paid to the role and utility of future anticipation. The combination of these methods helped in understanding: the effect that repositioning advisors’ mindsets in highly transformed futures has in the volume and originality of the insights generated, the importance of achieving a balanced representation of the R&I actors in the discussion groups, and the relevance that argumentation has in the formation of final advice. Understanding these factors would contribute to improve the quality and consistency of foresight advice discourses, thus augmenting their possibilities for acceptance and implementation by policy makers.
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Carvalho, João Ricardo Dias de Sousa. "Prospetiva e intelligence policial-estudo da utilidade da geração de cenários." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Ciências Sociais e Políticas, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/12733.
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Lee, Yuk-chun. "Air pollution scenarios for Hong Kong : an analysis of regional environmental interactions and policy implications /." Hong Kong : University of Hong Kong, 2002. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B25139368.
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Nadeem, Iqra. "Water-energy nexus in the UAE in relation to climate change and adaptation policy scenarios." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2018. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/122390.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.Thesis: S.M. in Technology and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Technology and Policy Program, 2018
Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 82-85).
Water and Energy systems that were once considered disparate, are coupled in many ways. Generation, transmission and distribution of each system relies on the other system. The interaction becomes significantly stronger in economies dependent on desalination for their water resources. One such country is the United Arab Emirates. The water-energy nexus faces serious challenges under climate change as cooling needs and outdoor water demands rise. This thesis models the impact of climate change on the water-energy nexus in the UAE. It explores a set of climate change adaptation policy scenarios and quantifies their respective economic, water and energy savings. Hence, it provides an analytical assessment of the nexus that can inform data-driven policy making. This thesis views the nexus through a qualitative lens and a quantitative lens. The qualitative piece presents the organizational mapping and structuring of the UAE institutions across the water-energy-climate nexus.
It highlights gaps in cross-sectoral interactions that need to be overcome for a sustainable future. The second piece presented in this thesis is analytical in nature. It uses two specialized water and energy softwares called the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) and the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) and couples them together to model the nexus. The water-energy nexus model is tested for different individual and aggregate adaptation policy scenarios to assess a wide range of effects on the nexus. These scenarios are also run for six sub-regions within the UAE (Abu Dhabi, Al Ain, Western region, Dubai, Eastern region and Fujairah) to understand the underlying demand sectors driving the water-energy nexus in these sub-regions. The results of this extensive scenario analysis have informed policy recommendations for long-term planning of the water-energy nexus in the UAE.
Important findings from this study include the huge savings potential from indoor consumption reduction (up to 1200 million cubic meters of water and 60 million gigajoules of electricity per year by 2060) and the need for irrigated land regulation (saves up to 700 million cubic meters of water and 5 million gigajoules of electricity per year by 2060) in the UAE. The sub-regional analysis highlights the need for sub-regionalized policy goals that govern regions based on their demand differences.
by Iqra Nadeem.
S.M. in Technology and Policy
S.M.inTechnologyandPolicy Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Technology and Policy Program
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Clement, Christopher Ernest. "Renewable Energy Transition: Dynamic Systems Analysis, Policy Scenarios, and Trade-offs for the State of Vermont." ScholarWorks @ UVM, 2016. http://scholarworks.uvm.edu/graddis/601.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
There is broad consensus that a transition to renewable energy and a low-carbon economy is crucial for future development and prosperity, yet there are differing perspectives on how such a transition should be achieved. The overarching goal of this dissertation, which is comprised of three interrelated studies, is to analyze and compare energy futures scenarios to achieve a renewable energy transition and low-carbon economy in the State of Vermont. In the first study, an analysis is presented of the role of energy pricing regimes and economic policy in the context of pursuing a renewable energy transition in the State of Vermont. Through the development and application of a system dynamics model, results address the limits to technological substitution due to path dependence on nonrenewable energy. The role of complementary economic policy is also highlighted to shift from a goal of quantitative growth to qualitative development in order to decouple economic welfare from energy consumption.
In the second study, an analysis is presented of the impact of modeled energy transition scenarios to address energy development and land use trade-offs. Simulations with a spatio-temporal land cover change model find that Vermont could achieve a complete transition to renewable electricity using in-state resources through developing between 11,000 and 100,000 hectares of land for solar and wind, or up to four percent of state land area, including some environmentally sensitive land. This approach highlights the need for integration of energy policy and land use planning in order to mitigate potential energy-land use conflict.
In the final study, trade-offs between energy, economic, environmental, and social dimensions of Vermont's renewable energy transition are explored through the use of a multi-criteria decision analysis. Energy transition alternatives were designed to reveal trade-offs at the intersection of economic growth and carbon price policy. While there were no optimal pathways to achieving Vermont's energy transition, some energy transition alternatives achieve a more socially desirable balance of benefits and consequences. Navigating the trade-offs inherent in the ongoing energy transition will require an adaptive approach to policymaking that incorporates iterative planning, experimentation, and learning.