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Автор: Grafiati
Опубліковано: 4 червня 2021
Оновлено: 5 березня 2023

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1

Fox, K. Ryder, and Falko Judt. "A Numerical Study on the Extreme Intensification of Hurricane Patricia (2015)." Weather and Forecasting 33, no. 4 (July 6, 2018): 989–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-17-0101.1.

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Анотація:
Abstract In October 2015 Hurricane Patricia stormed through the eastern Pacific, taking its place as the strongest hurricane in recorded history when its intensity reached a record breaking 185 kt (1 kt = 0.51 m s−1). Operational models and the National Hurricane Center’s official forecast failed to predict Patricia’s unprecedented intensification, provoking questions as to whether such an extreme event can actually be forecast. This study reports on the successful simulation of Patricia using a state-of-the-art high-resolution numerical weather prediction model. It was found that high model resolution (Δx ≤ 1 km), vortex initialization, and the parameterization of dissipative heating were key factors in realistically simulating Patricia’s intensity evolution. The simulation was used to investigate Patricia’s environment in terms of sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, and humidity, under the premise that a simulation able to capture Patricia’s peak intensity would also accurately represent Patricia’s environment. Compared with a climatology derived from the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme dataset, sea surface temperature ranked in the 99th percentile and environmental vertical wind shear in the 83rd percentile (ordered from high to low). However, humidity ranked more moderately. Ensemble forecasts indicate that Patricia had relatively high predictability in comparison to other well-studied rapid intensification cases such as 2010’s Hurricane Earl. The results from this study imply that high-resolution models are in principle able to predict the intensity of extreme hurricanes like Patricia.
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2

Rogers, Robert F., Sim Aberson, Michael M. Bell, Daniel J. Cecil, James D. Doyle, Todd B. Kimberlain, Josh Morgerman, Lynn K. Shay, and Christopher Velden. "Rewriting the Tropical Record Books: The Extraordinary Intensification of Hurricane Patricia (2015)." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 98, no. 10 (October 1, 2017): 2091–112. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-16-0039.1.

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Анотація:
Abstract Hurricane Patricia was a historic tropical cyclone that broke many records, such as intensification rate, peak intensity, and overwater weakening rate, during its brief 4-day lifetime in late October 2015 in the eastern Pacific basin. Patricia confounded all of the intensity forecast guidance owing to its rapid intensity changes. Fortunately, the hurricane-penetrating National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration WP-3D and U.S. Air Force C-130 aircraft and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration WB-57 high-altitude jet, under support of the Office of Naval Research, conducted missions through and over Patricia prior to and during its extreme intensity changes on all 4 days, while an extensive array of pressure sensors sampled Patricia after landfall. The observations collected from these missions include traditional data sources such as airborne Doppler radar and flight-level instruments as well as new data sources like a high-density array of dropsondes released from high-altitude and wide-swath radiometer. The combination of data from these sources and from satellites provides an excellent opportunity to investigate the physical processes responsible for Patricia’s structure and evolution and offers the potential to improve forecasts of tropical cyclone rapid intensity changes. This paper provides an overview of Patricia as well as the data collected during the aircraft missions.
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3

Martinez, Jonathan, Michael M. Bell, Robert F. Rogers, and James D. Doyle. "Axisymmetric Potential Vorticity Evolution of Hurricane Patricia (2015)." Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 76, no. 7 (June 26, 2019): 2043–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-18-0373.1.

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Abstract Operational numerical models failed to predict the record-setting rapid intensification and rapid overwater weakening of Hurricane Patricia (2015) in the eastern North Pacific basin, resulting in large intensity forecast errors. In an effort to better understand the mesoscale processes contributing to Patricia’s rapid intensity changes, we analyze high-resolution aircraft observations collected on 22–23 October. Spline-based variational analyses are created from observations collected via in situ measurements, Doppler radar, and full-tropospheric dropsonde profiles as part of the Office of Naval Research Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) experiment and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX). We present the first full-tropospheric calculation of the dry, axisymmetric Ertel’s potential vorticity (PV) in a tropical cyclone without relying on balance assumptions. Detailed analyses reveal the formation of a “hollow tower” PV structure as Patricia rapidly approached its maximum intensity, and a subsequent breakdown of this structure during Patricia’s rapid overwater weakening phase. Transforming the axisymmetric PV analyses from radius–height to potential radius–isentropic coordinates reveals that Patricia’s rapid intensification was closely related to the distribution of diabatic heating and eddy mixing. During Patricia’s rapid overwater weakening phase, eddy mixing processes are hypothesized to be the primary factor rearranging the PV distribution near the eye–eyewall region, diluting the PV previously confined to the hollow tower while approximately conserving the absolute circulation.
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4

Rodríguez, Yésica. "Dip, Patricia. Kierkegaard." Araucaria, no. 41 (2019): 567–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.12795/araucaria.2019.i41.29.

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5

Nystrom, Robert G., and Fuqing Zhang. "Practical Uncertainties in the Limited Predictability of the Record-Breaking Intensification of Hurricane Patricia (2015)." Monthly Weather Review 147, no. 10 (September 17, 2019): 3535–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-18-0450.1.

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Анотація:
Abstract Hurricane Patricia (2015) was a record-breaking tropical cyclone that was difficult to forecast in real time by both operational numerical weather prediction models and operational forecasters. The current study examines the potential for improving intensity prediction for extreme cases like Hurricane Patricia. We find that Patricia’s intensity predictability is potentially limited by both initial conditions, related to the data assimilation, and model errors. First, convection-permitting assimilation of airborne Doppler radar radial velocity observations with an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) demonstrates notable intensity forecast improvements over assimilation of conventional observations alone. Second, decreasing the model horizontal grid spacing to 1 km and reducing the surface drag coefficient at high wind speed in the parameterization of the sea surface–atmosphere exchanges is also shown to notably improve intensity forecasts. The practical predictability of Patricia, its peak intensity, rapid intensification, and the underlying dynamics are further investigated through a high-resolution 60-member ensemble initialized with realistic initial condition uncertainties represented by the EnKF posterior analysis perturbations. Most of the ensemble members are able to predict the peak intensity of Patricia, but with greater uncertainty in the timing and rate of intensification; some members fail to reach the ultimate peak intensity before making landfall. Ensemble sensitivity analysis shows that initial differences in the region beyond the radius of maximum wind contributes the most to the differences between ensemble members in Patricia’s intensification. Ensemble members with stronger initial primary and secondary circulations beyond the radius of maximum wind intensify earlier, are able to maintain the intensification process for longer, and thus reach a greater and earlier peak intensity.
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6

Camnitzer, Luis. "Patricia Israel." Art Journal 51, no. 4 (1992): 10. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/777274.

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7

Delgado-Romero, Edward A., and Angela I. Romero-Shih. "Patricia Arredondo." Counseling Psychologist 44, no. 8 (November 2016): 1212–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0011000016683943.

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8

Sabbagh, D. "Patricia Hewitt." Computer Bulletin 42, no. 1 (January 1, 2000): 18–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/combul/42.1.18.

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9

Mathews, C. W. "Patricia Mathews." BMJ 345, oct24 1 (October 24, 2012): e6451-e6451. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.e6451.

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10

Davidson, J. K. J. "Patricia Morley." BMJ 326, no. 7396 (May 3, 2003): 987g—987. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.326.7396.987/g.

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11

M.B. "Patricia Gilbert." Journal of Roman Studies 90 (November 2000): xiii. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0075435800031294.

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12

Amorosi, Drew. "Patricia Titus." Infosecurity 8, no. 5 (September 2011): 9–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s1754-4548(11)70062-6.

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13

Bhardwaj, Aradhya. "Patricia Uberoi." Contributions to Indian Sociology 44, no. 1-2 (June 2010): 179–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/006996671004400209.

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14

Green, Andrew. "Patricia Bath." Lancet 394, no. 10197 (August 2019): 464. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(19)31684-8.

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15

Trivalle, C. "Patricia Cornwell." NPG Neurologie - Psychiatrie - Gériatrie 6, no. 32 (April 2006): 54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s1627-4830(06)77304-4.

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16

Marcus, Adam, and Ivan Oransky. "Patricia Schiller." Lancet 392, no. 10147 (August 2018): 550. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(18)31706-9.

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17

Hunt, Patricia. "Patricia Hunt." Current Biology 22, no. 20 (October 2012): R856—R858. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2012.08.010.

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18

Spencer, Sarah, Ian Whitehead, and Cecilia Ng. "Patricia Hewitt." BMJ 335, no. 7610 (July 14, 2007): s20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.335.7610.s20.

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19

Brookes, Peter, Jenny Brookes, and Soozy Gilbert. "Patricia Gilbert." BMJ 333, no. 7580 (December 7, 2006): 1224.4–1224. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.39055.636991.fa.

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20

Barron, T. "Patricia Barron." BMJ 349, sep26 6 (September 26, 2014): g5748. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.g5748.

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21

&NA;. "Patricia Carroll." Topics in Clinical Nutrition 7, no. 2 (April 1992): 60–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/00008486-199203000-00009.

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22

Fannon, Dominic. "Patricia Casey." Psychiatric Bulletin 29, no. 2 (February 2005): ibc. http://dx.doi.org/10.1192/pb.29.2.81.

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23

Brennan, Patricia. "Patricia Brennan." Current Biology 30, no. 19 (October 2020): R1064—R1066. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2020.08.071.

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24

Elvins, Richard, Libby Kalucy, Robert Lake, Elizabeth Barber, Nan Wehipeihana, and Susan Goff. "What did it all mean?" Evaluation Journal of Australasia 2, no. 2 (December 2002): 35–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1035719x0200200209.

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Анотація:
The final conference plenary was designed as a review session to focus on what had been learnt at the conference. Chaired by conference discussant Patricia Rogers, a panel drawn from six AES regions contributed their impressions of the conference and what they saw as the key issues over the three days. This panel session was followed by Patricia's closing address, which appears on pages 30-34.
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25

Lachman, Peter. "Obituary: Patricia Cumpsty." South African Journal of Physiotherapy 48, no. 4 (November 30, 1992): 61. http://dx.doi.org/10.4102/sajp.v48i4.1376.

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26

Flaherty, Mary Pat. "Patricia Prattis Jennings." Black Perspective in Music 18, no. 1/2 (1990): 252. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1214903.

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27

Gabow, Patricia A. "Patricia Gabow Comments." American Journal of Public Health 110, no. 4 (April 2020): 454–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.2105/ajph.2020.305588.

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28

Baggini, Julian. "Patricia Churchland Interview." Philosophers' Magazine, no. 57 (2012): 60–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.5840/tpm20125750.

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29

Thompson, Christina. "Reading Patricia Grace." World Literature Today 83, no. 3 (2009): 37–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/wlt.2009.0085.

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30

Laurence, Patricia. "Patricia Laurence Responds." College English 57, no. 6 (October 1995): 731. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/378581.

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31

Bizzell, Patricia. "Patricia Bizzell Responds." College English 57, no. 2 (February 1995): 227. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/378820.

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32

Bizzell, Patricia. "Patricia Bizzell Responds." College English 57, no. 5 (September 1995): 602. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/378834.

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33

Bizzell, Patricia. "Patricia Bizzell Responds." College English 50, no. 6 (October 1988): 701. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/377743.

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34

Bizzell, Patricia. "Patricia Bizzell Responds." College English 53, no. 6 (October 1991): 724. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/377898.

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35

Prentice, Jenny. "Vale: Patricia Blackley." WCET Journal 39, no. 2 (July 2019): 42–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.33235/wcet.39.2.42-43.

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36

Salisbury, Emily J., and Meda Chesney-Lind. "Patricia Van Voorhis." Criminology & Public Policy 11, no. 2 (May 2012): 147–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9133.2012.00794.x.

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37

Bizzell, Patricia. "Patricia Bizzell's response." Rhetoric Society Quarterly 23, no. 1 (January 1993): 50–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02773949309390979.

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38

Tomonaga, Susumu. "Vale Patricia Underwood." Nursing & Health Sciences 18, no. 4 (December 2016): 413. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/nhs.12319.

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39

Tolley, Tim. "Patricia Robin Giesecke." Australian Veterinary Journal 88, no. 7 (June 21, 2010): 247–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1751-0813.2010.00602.x.

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40

Müller, H. V. "Fall Patricia D." Zeitschrift für Klassische Homöopathie 28, no. 01 (April 2, 2007): 3–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1055/s-2006-938075.

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41

Levitt, Pat. "Patricia Goldman-Rakic." PLoS Biology 1, no. 2 (November 17, 2003): e38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.0000038.

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42

Munro, S. "Patricia Ann Burgess." BMJ 327, no. 7423 (November 8, 2003): 1112. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.327.7423.1112.

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43

Fountain, W. "Mary Patricia Shepherd." BMJ 327, no. 7427 (December 6, 2003): 1351—c—1351. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.327.7427.1351-c.

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44

Trask, M. "Patricia Highsmith's Method." American Literary History 22, no. 3 (July 13, 2010): 584–614. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/alh/ajq038.

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45

Moore and Peter Moore, A. "Patricia Theresa Moore." BMJ 326, no. 7379 (January 4, 2003): 54f—54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.326.7379.54/f.

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46

Verdon, J. "Patricia Elizabeth Verdon." BMJ 326, no. 7397 (May 10, 2003): 1040b—1040. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.326.7397.1040/b.

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47

Wilson, Patrice. "Patricia Grace'sPotiki:Diminished violence." World Literature Written in English 36, no. 2 (January 1997): 120–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17449859708589279.

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48

No authorship indicated. "Patricia J. Bauer." American Psychologist 49, no. 4 (1994): 264–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/h0090754.

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49

Baca Zinn, Maxine. "Patricia Hill Collins." Gender & Society 26, no. 1 (January 23, 2012): 28–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0891243211426873.

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50

Baxter, Grant M., J. K. ‘Jake’ Davidson, and John E. E. Fleming. "Obituary — Patricia Morley." BMUS Bulletin 11, no. 2 (May 2003): 33–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1742271x0301100215.

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