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Статті в журналах з теми "Oil; petroleum; real option valuation"
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Kosowski, Piotr, and Jerzy Stopa. "An Estimation of Profitability of Investment Projects in The Oil and Gas Industry Using Real Options Theory / Ocena Opłacalności Projektów Inwestycyjnych W Przemyśle Naftowym Z Wykorzystaniem Teorii Opcji Realnych." Archives of Mining Sciences 57, no. 2 (November 12, 2012): 391–401. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/v10267-012-0025-2.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract Paper discusses issues relating to the valuation of investment efficiency in the oil and gas industry using a real options theory. The example of investment pricing using real options was depicted and it was confronted with the analysis executed with the use of traditional methods. Indicators commonly used to evaluate profitability of investment projects, based on a discounted cash flow method, have a few significant drawbacks, the most meaningful of which is staticity which means that any changes resulting from a decision process during the time of investment cannot be taken into consideration. In accordance with a methodology that is currently used, investment projects are analysed in a way that all the key decisions are made at the beginning and are irreversible. This approach assumes, that all the cash flows are specified and does not let the fact that during the time of investment there may appear new information, which could change its original form. What is also not analysed is the possibility of readjustment, due to staff managment’s decisions, to the current market conditions, by expanding, speeding up/slowing down, abandoning or changing an outline of the undertaking. In result, traditional methods of investment projects valuation may lead to taking wrong decisions, e.g. giving up an owned exploitation licence or untimely liquidation of boreholes, which seem to be unprofitable. Due to all the above-mentioned there appears the necessity of finding some other methods which would let one make real and adequate estimations about investments in a petroleum industry especially when it comes to unconventional resources extraction. One of the methods which has been recently getting more and more approval in a world petroleum economics, is a real options pricing method. A real option is a right (but not an obligation) to make a decision connected with an investment in a specified time or time interval. According to the method a static model of pricing using DCF is no longer used; an investment project is divided into a series of steps and after each one there is a range of possible investment decisions, technical and organizational issues and all the others called ‘real options’. This lets one take many different varieties of modyfiying a strategy while pricing the project. This also makes it possible to react to the changing inner and outer situation and introducing new information while accomplishing the investment project. Owing to those, the decision process is a continuous operation, what is an actual vision of a real investment project management in the petroleum industry.
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Milanesi, Gastón Silverio. "The Binomial Fuzzy Model and real options valuation: an oil explotation concession contract valuation." Estocástica: Finanzas y Riesgo 3, no. 2 (July 30, 2013): 95–118. http://dx.doi.org/10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/efr/2013v3n2/milanesi.
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Armstrong, M., A. Galli, W. Bailey, and B. Couët. "Incorporating technical uncertainty in real option valuation of oil projects." Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 44, no. 1-2 (October 2004): 67–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2004.02.006.
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Fonseca, Marcelo Nunes, Edson de Oliveira Pamplona, Victor Eduardo de Mello Valerio, Giancarlo Aquila, Luiz Célio Souza Rocha, and Paulo Rotela Junior. "Oil price volatility: A real option valuation approach in an African oil field." Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering 150 (February 2017): 297–304. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2016.12.024.
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Paddock, James L., Daniel R. Siegel, and James L. Smith. "Option Valuation of Claims on Real Assets: The Case of Offshore Petroleum Leases." Quarterly Journal of Economics 103, no. 3 (August 1988): 479. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1885541.
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TALEB, Lotfi. "Real Option Analysis versus DCF Valuation - An Application to a Tunisian Oilfield." International Business Research 12, no. 3 (January 29, 2019): 17. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ibr.v12n3p17.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The most widely used methods of choosing investments are undoubtedly the NPV. This method is often criticized because it does not allow to take into account certain main characteristics of the investment decision, notably the irreversibility, the uncertainty and the possibility of delaying the investment. On the other hand, the real options approach (ROA) is proposed to capture the flexibility associated with an investment project. This article examines whether the value of an undeveloped oil field varies according to whether the ROA or NPV assessment is used. In addition, to value the option to defer, we developed a continuous time model derived from previous work by Brenan and Schwartz (1985), McDonald and Siegel (1986) and Paddock, Siegel, and Smith (1988). The originality of the proposed model gives rise to a simple and uncomplicated method for determining the value of the option. Findings indicate that the two evaluation methods lead to the same decision, the project is economically profitable. In this oil investment project studied, despite the positive value of the option, the importance of projected cash-flows and optimistic forecasts of the price of oil, led us not to exercise the option and to undertake the project immediately.
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Nikolova, Julia A., and Larisa V. Skopina. "OPTIONS METHOD FOR OIL EXPLOITATION INVESTMENT PROJECT EFFICIENCY EVALUATION UNDER RISK CONDITIONS." Interexpo GEO-Siberia 3, no. 1 (July 8, 2020): 159–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.33764/2618-981x-2020-3-1-159-167.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
In this work modern methods of investment project efficiency evaluation were studied, advantages and disadvantages of using the real option model were shown in comparison with the DCF model. It is proved that a rainbow option is an effective valuation tool in conditions of high oil prices volatility and low study of reserves and resource. Two stages may be identified: mineral exploration and maintenance work. Black-Scholes model was used for option pricing.
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Jafarizadeh, Babak, and Reidar Bratvold. "Two-Factor Oil-Price Model and Real Option Valuation: An Example of Oilfield Abandonment." SPE Economics & Management 4, no. 03 (July 1, 2012): 158–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/162862-pa.
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Acquah-Andoh, Elijah. "Oil and Gas Production and the Growth of Ghana’s Economy: An Initial Assessment." International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, no. 10 (October 15, 2018): 303–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.32861/ijefr.5.410.303.312.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Oil and gas resources present enormous opportunities for the economic development of low income economies, but poor management of these resources can result in dire consequences for the foundations of the resource-endowed nation. The discovery of oil and gas in Ghana is as significant as the policies and measures to ensure optimum benefits to the nation. This paper evaluates the sustainability of petroleum production in the light of the medium term policy structure, the Ghana Shared Growth and Development Agenda (GSGDA). In particular, the economic contribution of oil and gas to Ghana’s GDP and sustainable investment options for petroleum revenues were examined using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. The evidence suggests that at current production levels, petroleum is not a significant contributor to Ghana’s GDP after adjusting for the contribution from other sectors of the economy. The consistent appreciation of Ghana’s real effective exchange rate between 2010 and 2013 led to a deterioration of the competitiveness of the non-oil sector and declining contribution of the agricultural sector to GDP; and further eroded the net impact of petroleum production. Investing petroleum proceeds in the non-oil sector and expansion of the export base are a viable option for utilising petroleum revenues.
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Liu, Jianye, Zuxin Li, Dongkun Luo, and Ruolei Liu. "Study on the Valuation Method for Overseas Oil and Gas Extraction Based on the Modified Trinomial Tree Option Pricing Model." Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2020 (May 12, 2020): 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/4803909.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Wandering of oil prices at lower values and the bitter reality have forced people to look for a more accurate valuation method for overseas oil and gas extraction of China. However, the currently available resource classification method, discount cash flow (DCF) method, and real option method all suffer from their own disadvantages. This paper identifies multiple uncertainty factors such as oil prices and reserves. It then investigates the transmission mechanism of how each uncertainty factor impacts the oil and gas extraction value and quantifies the transmission efficiency. The probability distribution patterns of each uncertainty factor have been determined; the trinomial tree option pricing model is modified, with consideration upon the nonstandardness of the probability distribution. Decision points and strategies space are designed in accordance with the practical oil and gas production; and the Bermuda option is adopted to replace the conventional decision-based tree model with the probability-based tree. Finally, a backward algorithm is developed to calculate the probability at each decision point, which avoids difficulties in determining the asset volatility ratio; and a case study is presented to demonstrate application of the proposed method. Results show that decision rights for overseas investment are valuable. The value of extraction does not yet necessarily grow with higher uncertainty, and instead, it is under joint effects of the cash flow and strategy space. So, valuation should incorporate the composite value of future cash flow and decision rights. Volatility of the value of extraction is not solely dependent on the oil price, but affected by multiple factors. Similar to the Bermuda option, the decision-making behavior for oil and gas extraction occurs only at finite decision points, to which the trinomial tree option pricing model is applicable. The adoption of probability distribution can to a great extent exploit the uncertain information. Replacement of the decision-based tree with the probability-based tree provides more accurate probability distribution of the calculated value of extraction, and moreover the disperse degree of the probability can reflect how high risks are, which is conducive to decision-making for investment.
Дисертації з теми "Oil; petroleum; real option valuation"
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Oosthuizen, J. F. (Jan Francois). "A critique of the use of real option valuation to evaluate an oil industry refining project." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/50245.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2005.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The oil industry is under pressure to select refinery projects that will provide higher and more predictable returns. In the past Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) techniques have been used to choose between refinery project alternatives. One of the problems with DCF techniques is that they ignore management flexibility when evaluating projects that contain embedded options. Real Option Valuation (ROV) is an approach that takes management flexibility into account and places a value on this flexibility. ROV has been used extensively by the oil industry for the evaluation of oil and gas reserves. The aim of this study is to determine the extent to which the use of ROV will improve the decision making process when evaluating a refining project containing embedded options as well as to determine the most appropriate option valuation method for refining projects. This was done by evaluating a refining project using both a probabilistic DCF approach and the various option pricing models and comparing the results. It was concluded that ROV will improve the decision making process when evaluating refining projects containing embedded options. The most appropriate option pricing method for refining projects was found to be the simulation approach since simulation is already being used by refineries to perform probabilistic DCF analysis. It is not recommended that ROV should be blindly applied to all refining projects containing embedded options. The use of ROV should be limited to larger refining projects for which probabilistic cash flows have been developed and the extent of the ROV analysis required should be determined by a careful review of the net present value (NPV) cumulative probability curves.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die olie industrie is onder druk geplaas om projekte te kies met 'n hoër opbrengs op kapitaal en 'n opbrengs wat meer voorspelbaar is. In die verlede is slegs die Verdiskonteerde Kontant Vloei (VKV) metode gebruik om projekte te selekteer vir die raffinadery. Een van die onderliggende tekortkominge met die gebruik van die VKV metode is dat verskillende bestuursopsies in terme van alternatiewe met ingeboude opsies, nie voldoende ondersoek word nie. Reële Opsie Waardasie (ROW) is 'n metode wat bestuursopsies in ag neem deur 'n waarde te plaas op elke beskikbare bestuursopsie. ROW het wye toepassings in die olie industrie vir die evaluasie van gas en olie reserves. Die doel van hierdie studie is om te bepaal tot watter mate die gebruik van ROW die besluitnemingsproses sal verbeter in terme van die evaluasie van projekte met ingeboude opsies vir raffinaderye en watter opsiewaardasie metode die mees geskikte is vir sulke projekte. 'n Raffinadery projek is evalueer deur beide KV en verskeie opsie-prysbepalingsmetodes te gebruik en die resultate is vergelyk. Die resultate van die studie het bewys dat die ROW metode die besluitnemingsproses verbeter. Die studie het gewys dat die mees geskikte opsie-waardasie metode vir projekte in the raffinadery die simulasie benadering is omdat simulasie alreeds vir probalisties VKV ontleding gebruik word. 'n Verdere aanbeveling is dat die ROW metode nie blindelings gevolg moet word vir alle projekte met ingeboude opsies nie. Die gebruik van ROW moet beperk word tot groter projekte waarvoor probabilistiese kontantvloei alreeds ontwikkel is. Die mate van ROW ontleding moet bepaal word deur 'n noukeurige ondersoek te doen van die kumulatiewe netto huidige waarde-waarskynlikheidskurwe.
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Godoy, Carlos Roberto de. "Evidenciação contábil e as avaliações pelo fluxo de caixa descontado e pela teoria de opções: um estudo aplicado à indústria petrolífera mundial." Universidade de São Paulo, 2004. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/12/12136/tde-09092014-133550/.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
As informações evidenciadas pelas empresas que exploram e produzem óleo e gás são objetos de consideráveis controvérsias. O centro dessa controvérsia está nas deficiências do modelo do custo histórico em fornecer informações adequadas para os usuários das demonstrações contábeis. O mais importante evento para as empresas que exploram e produzem petróleo é a descoberta de reservas de óleo e gás, e não os lucros e as receitas derivadas das vendas do óleo e do gás. O modelo do custo histórico, entretanto, não consegue mensurar e evidenciar adequadamente as reservas provadas de óleo e gás até que essas reservas sejam desenvolvidas, produzidas e vendidas. Outro problema relacionado ao modelo do custo histórico para as empresas do setor petrolífero, é de que os custos incorridos para se descobrir reservas de óleo e gás possui pouca, se é que há alguma, relação com o valor das reservas provadas. Como resultado dessas deficiências do modelo do custo histórico, e como uma tentativa de \"adaptar\" os resultados, duas formas de capitalizar os custos da atividade de exploração e produção de óleo e gás são utilizadas e aceitas, o método da Capitalização Total e o método da Capitalização pelos Esforços Bem Sucedidos. A avaliação das reservas provadas de óleo e gás das empresas, assim como as decisões de investimentos, são afetadas pela incerteza econômica, pela incerteza técnica, assim como pelas flexibilidades gerenciais embutidas na exploração e produção de óleo e gás. A técnica do Valor Presente Líquido não possui atributos para capturar essas flexibilidades, pois não considera a opção de, por exemplo, adiar o desenvolvimento de uma reserva para o momento em que o preço do barril de petróleo se mostrar conveniente para os planos da empresa. Este estudo tem por objetivo explorar e aplicar as diferentes formas de avaliação de reservas petrolíferas: a) contábil; b) fluxo de caixa futuro (Hotelling); c) fluxo de caixa descontado padronizado; d) margem direta; e) fluxo de caixa descontado; e f) opções reais, a fim de descobrir qual delas apresenta-se como a melhor forma para capturar o valor justo do principal ativo das empresas que exploram e produzem petróleo - as reservas provadas de óleo e gás. Na comparação das técnicas de avaliação, a avaliação pela teoria de precificação de opções se mostrou como a melhor forma de se avaliar as reservas provadas das empresas analisadas, seguida pelas avaliações do fluxo de caixa descontado e pelo princípio de avaliação Hotelling.The information disclosed by oil and gas companies is a source of great controversy. The main issue is the deficiency of the historical cost model to supply adequate information for financial statement users. The most important event for oil exploration and production companies is the discovery of oil and gas reserves, and not the profits and revenues deriving from oil and gas sales. However, the historical cost model does not manage to adequately measure and disclose the oil and gas reserves until they are actually developed, produced and sold. Another problem in the historical cost model for petroleum companies is that there is hardly any or no relation between the costs incurred to discover oil and gas reserves and the value of the proved reserves. As a result of these deficiencies in the historical cost model, and in an attempt to \"adapt\" the results, two ways of capitalizing the costs of oil and gas exploration and production activities are used and accepted, the Full Cost method and the Successful Efforts method. The evaluation of the companies\' proved oil and gas reserves as well as the investment decisions are affected by economic uncertainty, technical uncertainty and by the management flexibilities inserted in oil and gas exploration and production. The Net Present Value technique does not have the attributes to capture these flexibilities, since it does not consider the possibility of delaying the development of a reserve to a moment at which oil prices are convenient for company plans for example. This study aims to explore and apply different forms of evaluating oil reserves: a) accounting; b) future cash flow (Hotelling); c) standardized measure of discounted cash flow; d) direct margin; e) discounted cash flow; and f) real options, with a view to discovering which of these comes out as the best way to obtain the fair value of oil exploration and production companies\' main asset - their proved oil and gas reserves. In the comparison among different techniques, evaluation according to option pricing theory revealed to be the best way to evaluate the proved reserves of the analyzed companies, followed by the discounted cash flow evaluation and by Hotelling\'s evaluation model.
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Van, Enckevort Anna Marie. "Real option valuation of a portfolio of oil projects." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/8756.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Various methodologies exist for valuing companies and their projects. We address the problem of valuing a portfolio of projects within companies that have infrequent, large and volatile cash flows. Examples of this type of company exist in oil exploration and development and we will use this example to illustrate our analysis throughout the thesis. The theoretical interest in this problem lies in modeling the sources of risk in the projects and their different interactions within each project. Initially we look at the advantages of real options analysis and compare this approach with more traditional valuation methods, highlighting strengths and weaknesses of each approach in the light of the thesis problem. We give the background to the stages in an oil exploration and development project and identify the main common sources of risk, for example commodity prices. We discuss the appropriate representation for oil prices; in short, do oil prices behave more like equities or more like interest rates? The appropriate representation is used to model oil price as a source of risk. A real option valuation model based on market uncertainty (in the form of oil price risk) and geological uncertainty (reserve volume uncertainty) is presented and tested for two different oil projects. Finally, a methodology to measure the inter-relationship between oil price and other sources of risk such as interest rates is proposed using copula methods.
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FILHO, CARLOS DE GOES MASCARENHAS. "THE IMPACT OF THE VOLATILITY IN THE REAL OPTION VALUATION: AN APPLICATION TO BRAZILIAN INVESTMENTS IN TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND PETROLEUM." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2003. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=4697@1.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICOA avaliação de investimentos em capital fixo através da metodologia tradicional, baseada no valor presente líquido, nos fornece a seguinte regra fundamental para a implementação dos projetos: o valor esperado dos seus fluxos de receitas descontados a valor presente deve ultrapassar os seus custos. Este tipo de metodologia desconsidera o valor associado à flexibilidade do processo decisório relacionado à opção pela realização ou não de um investimento. O apreçamento de ativos reais com características de incerteza nos fluxos de caixa esperados, irreversibilidade dos gastos iniciais, possuindo uma flexibilidade operacional que permite o adiamento do investimento em busca de novas informações sobre preços, custos e outras condições de mercado, deve ser realizado através da metodologia das opções reais. Neste método de avaliação de um empreendimento, uma variável importante é a dispersão dos retornos ou a variância do processo estocástico que define a lei de movimento para o valor das receitas do projeto. Esta volatilidade dos ganhos esperados representa o risco associado ao empreendimento. Entretanto, um projeto é um ativo não-negociável, logo precisamos estabelecer proxies para a representação do seu risco. Uma maior volatilidade significa necessariamente a presença de uma maior incerteza e um valor mais elevado para a opção de aguardar antes de comprometer os gastos irreversíveis. Assim, o valor da flexibilidade será uma função crescente da volatilidade. Apesar da importância desta variável, a sua influência sobre a avaliação das oportunidades de investimento foi pouco explorada pela literatura de opções reais. O objetivo desta dissertação é justamente analisar a influência das proxies para a representação da incerteza associada a projetos de investimento em ativos reais, verificando o impacto destas escolhas sobre o valor da opção de se adiar um empreendimento. Para isto, foram escolhidos dois setores importantes para economia brasileira: telecomunicações e petróleo. Através da análise estatística das séries procuramos distinguir as características de risco de longo prazo das volatilidades de cada uma das proxies associadas à incerteza de um investimento. Também realizamos uma avaliação do impacto destas diferentes volatilidades sobre o processo decisório de empreendimentos através da metodologia das opções reais. Verificamos a presença do risco no Brasil de um investimento de longo prazo, através de uma maior espera para a realização dos investimentos ou na necessidade de lucros substancialmente maiores para a implementação dos projetos.
The net present value valuation of investments in capital stock is based on the following rule: the present value of the expected stream of profits from the investment should be greater than the required expenditures. This kind of rule ignores the value of waiting related to the ability of delaying an irreversible investment. The valuation of real assets with characteristics of uncertainty over the future cash flows, irreversible or sunk costs and optimal timing of the investment decision in search for more information about prices, costs and other markets conditions, should be done using the real options approach to capital investments. Is this type of valuation, one important variable is the volatility of the stochastic process followed by the value of the project's stream of revenues. This volatility of the expected gains represents the risk of the investment. Meanwhile, projects are usually non- traded assets, therefore we should establish proxies for their risk. The presence of a greater uncertainty means a higher volatility associated with the options to delay the investment decision before commiting the irreversible resources. Therefore, the value of this flexibility grows with the volatility. Inspite of the importance of this variable to the valuation of the real of options, it's influence haven't been explored by the current literature in this subject. The goal of this dissertation is to explore the influence of the uncertainty associated with the proxies of the investments projects, analyzing their impact over the valuation of the real options. For this matter, we have choosen two important industries in the Brazilian economy: telecommunications and petroleum. Throughout the statistical study of the data we are looking forward to distinguish the risk characteristics of these proxies associates with the volatilities of a long term investment in physical assets. We also analyse the impact of these different proxies over the real option's valuation process. The presence of the risk of a long term investment in Brazil can be verified by the need of higher rates of return to accept projects.
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Faria, Jorge Manuel Sarroeria Santos Alves de. "Equity research Galp Energia SGPS SA : Mozambique - Galp’s greener future is a real option." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/20819.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Mestrado em FinançasEste projeto é um Equity Research da Galp Energia S.G.P.S., S.A. (GALP.LS), com um foco particular nas atividades e projetos da GALP em Moçambique. Foi elaborado no âmbito do Mestrado em Finanças do ISEG e segue as diretrizes do CFA Institute. Apenas informação de cariz público até à data de 12 de novembro foi considerada. A GALP é uma empresa portuguesa que atua na indústria do petróleo e gás natural. A empresa está presente em alguns dos projetos Upstream mais lucrativos do mundo e é líder de mercado em Portugal no segmento de Downstream. Para a avaliação da empresa, decidimos aplicar a metodologia FCFF (soma das partes). O resultado é uma recomendação de COMPRA com um preço-alvo de €12,06 por ação, implicando um potencial de subida de + 26% relativamente ao preço de fecho de 9 de março de 2020. Adicionalmente ao projeto original, foi feita uma análise complementar aos dois projetos de gás natural da GALP em Moçambique - Coral South FLNG e Rovuma LNG. Embora estes projetos tenham sido considerados na nossa avaliação inicial, esta análise fornece uma visão mais aprofundada de cada um deles, bem como, sugere algumas adaptações à nossa avaliação inicial devido a mudanças no mercado e nas condições económicas. Finalmente, um novo método de avaliação para o projeto Rovuma LNG é sugerido - avaliar o projeto usando uma abordagem de Opções Reais.
This project is an Equity Research of Galp Energia S.G.P.S., S.A. (GALP.LS), with a particular focus on GALP's activities and projects in Mozambique. The Equity Research was conducted following ISEG's Master in Finance framework and follows the CFA Institute guidelines. Only public information until November 12th, was considered. GALP is a Portuguese company that operates in the Oil & Gas industry. The company is present in some of the most profitable Upstream projects in the world and is market leader in Portugal in the Downstream segment. For the valuation of the company, we decided to apply a SoP Free Cash Flow to the Firm approach. We reached a BUY recommendation with a price target of €12.06/sh, implying a +26% upside potential from the March 9th, 2020 closing price. Following the original research, a complementary analysis of GALP's two natural gas projects in Mozambique - Coral South FLNG and Rovuma LNG- was carried out. Although these projects were considered in our initial valuation, this complementary analysis provides a a more in depth look to each of them, as well as, suggesting some adaptations to our initial valuation due to changes in market and economic conditions. Finally, a new valuation method for the Rovuma LNG project is suggested - valuing the project using a Real Options approach.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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Yao, Yanhua. "Real options valuation for petroleum investments." Thesis, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/2440/80416.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
In many instances, oil companies struggle with decisions on petroleum investment. The difficulty partially stems from uncertainties in many of the inherent variables. Conventional investment methods often fail to properly identify available opportunities. Real Options Valuation involves a methodology for evaluating the value of an opportunity, leading to a strategic decision in an uncertain environment. In this study, two petroleum cases are considered, a technical uncertainty dominated case and a market uncertainty dominated case. Both cases demonstrate the fuctionality of the Real Options approach.Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, Australian School of Petroleum, 2006
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León, Mujica Freddy Ricardo. "Equity valuation : Equinor ASA." Master's thesis, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/26878.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This dissertation has the objective of valuing the Norwegian oil & gas company Equinor ASA, previously known as Statoil. The purpose is to reach the fair value of a single share of the company and issue a buy, hold or sell recommendation, by contrasting the target price with the current market price. The valuation performed is based in an oil & gas industry analysis, as well as a company analysis, so that well informed assumptions could be formed to forecast future performance. Equinor ASA’s valuation is performed as a sum of the parts, where the current operations where valued following a DCF approach and the undeveloped proven reserves where valued using the Real Option methodology, the sum of the part approach was also complemented by multiples valuation. Equinor ASA’s fair value reached with these methodologies was kr.203,17, that has a 10,56% upside against market price, given that the price difference is not significant given the industry’s volatility, a hold recommendation was issued. This recommendation is consistent with Handelsbanken’s report.Esta dissertação tem como objetivo avaliar a empresa norueguesa de petróleo e gás Equinor ASA, antes conhecida como Statoil. O objetivo é atingir o valor justo de uma única ação da empresa e emitir uma recomendação para comprar, manter ou vender, contrastando o preço alvo com o preço de mercado atual. A avaliação realizada baseia-se numa análise da indústria do petróleo e gás, bem como numa análise da empresa, para que com suposições bem informadas se possa prever o desempenho futuro. A avaliação da Equinor ASA é realizada como uma soma de partes, onde as operações atuais são valorizadas seguindo uma abordagem DCF e as reservas provadas não desenvolvidas foram avaliadas usando a metodologia da Opção Real. A metodologia da soma das partes também foi complementada por uma avaliação de múltiplos. O valor justo da Equinor ASA alcançado com essas metodologias foi de kr.203,17, que tem um aumento de 10,56% em relação ao preço do mercado. Dado que a diferença de preço não é significativa, e tendo em conta a volatilidade da indústria, uma recomendação de retenção é emitida. Esta recomendação é consistente com o relatório do Handelsbanken.
Тези доповідей конференцій з теми "Oil; petroleum; real option valuation"
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Setyabudi, Heru, Iman Herwidiana Kartowisastro, Agung Trisetyarso, and Edi Abdurachman. "Improving Petroleum Real Options Calculation by the Application of Quantum Artificial Intelligence." In ADIPEC. SPE, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/211817-ms.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract Regarding the issue of carbon gas and reducing fossil energy to environmentally friendly energy, an investor certainly needs an accurate calculation model with a fast calculation time for the adjacent investment portfolio. The smart energy concept integrates information and communication to improve overall efficiency. One of the fossil energies that is still the mainstay of energy today is crude oil. However, it has price constraints that have high volatility and there will be changes in business patterns in the oil and gas industry sector. Capital planning has been a struggle for Oil and Gas companies. Computing speed has increased dramatically, but there are still problems making reasonable computation times. The problem is in the field simulation in determining how much detail can be modeled to make it accurate but maintain fast calculation times. This is a popular topic in the Oil and Gas industry these days. Real Options Quantum Computing (ROQC) tries to find trends and information not seen by traditional methods, either the Discounted Cash Flow model (DCF) and the Real Option Valuation model, of course, representing new methods of work and analysis in the future. ROQC attempts to measure the risk associated with the financial success of a project as it relates to the accuracy of the proposed capital budget and costs as well as the speed which is processed near-realtime.
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Schiozer, R. F., G. A. Costa Lima, and S. B. Suslick. "The Pitfalls of Capital Budgeting When Costs Correlate to Oil Price. Is the Real-Options Approach Superior to Traditional Valuation?" In Canadian International Petroleum Conference. Petroleum Society of Canada, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/2007-137.
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Setyabudi, Heru, Iman Herwidiana Kartowisastro, Agung Trisetyarso, and Edi Abdurachman. "Evaluation of Real Options Valuation of Petroleum using Deep Learning Algorithms based on Crude Oil Futures Information with Dual Information." In 2022 International Seminar on Application for Technology of Information and Communication (iSemantic). IEEE, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/isemantic55962.2022.9920405.
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Dezen, F., and C. Morooka. "Field Development Decision Making Under Uncertainty: A Real Option Valuation Approach." In SPE Latin American and Caribbean Petroleum Engineering Conference. Society of Petroleum Engineers, 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/69595-ms.
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Andreev, Nikita Anatoljevitsj. "The Optimistic View to Uncertainty. Benefits of Real Option Valuation Methodology in Project Valuation; Example of its Application for a Rail Terminal Modification Project." In Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition & Conference. SPE, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/207858-ms.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract The two main factors that drive the shift to liquid cracking in the Middle East are the restricted availability of ethane and the fact that naphtha or mixed feed cracking provides us with a much more diverse product mix. This opens the path to a higher share of performance chemicals. Building petrochemical complexes based on liquid or mixed feed cracking requires very complicated downstream configurations at a high level of integration with refinery streams. The value created by such a project rests on the ability of the operator to solve complex optimization problems in a volatile market environment. Inevitably, the correctness of the investment decision rests on the ability of the management to determine the value of the project under conditions of uncertainty regarding the future market prices. This paper demonstrates how the approach that was developed originally for the option valuation, can be used to address the problem of project assessment under the conditions of uncertainty. A real-life example of an investment decision about a modification of a rail terminal is used to illustrate the problem and to present a solution to it. Building on this example further, the paper argues that the method of Real Option valuation can support a creation of a competitive advantage in the conditions of uncertainty.
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Biladi, A. I. "ISCA: Quick Real-Time Sand Potential Prediction Simulator based on Critical Drawdown Failure and Machine Learning Model." In Indonesian Petroleum Association 44th Annual Convention and Exhibition. Indonesian Petroleum Association, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.29118/ipa21-se-237.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Sand production is almost an inevitable problem in oil and gas production facilities. As the reservoir depletes, sand grains from the reservoir begin to flow into the wellbore, this can cause serious problems to the wellbore. Excessive sand production can eventually plug and erode tubing, casing, flowlines, and surface equipment or even lead to formation collapse. In general, once sand production has occurred and if it is not handled properly it can end the production life of a reservoir and wells. This problem mostly occurs in mature fields with marginal economics for workover. The more reasonable option is to predict or mitigate the sand production, which can help identify the most economical way of sand control methods at the early stage. Many conventional sand prediction techniques have been developed which are based on field observation and experience, laboratory sand production experiments, and theoretical or numerical modeling. These conventional techniques have proven their effectiveness, but to achieve them can be time-consuming and costly. In this paper, we try to predict sand production with high efficiency and accuracy by using a quick simulator. Integrated Sand Control Analysis or ISCA is a simple simulator to help predict early sand production based on critical borehole and calculate critical drawdown pressure prediction. ISCA is supported by several mathematical models that function to predict various types of formation. Integrated with Machine Learning makes ISCA also compatible with big data analysis. The results in this study show that the combination of Machine Learning and analytical model can achieve accuracy above 90% based on the comparison of laboratory results with software predictions. With a high level of accuracy results this software can be considered as a reliable tool to predict and analyze sand production.
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Wartenberg, Nicolas, Margaux Kerdraon, Mathieu Salaun, Lena Brunet-Errard, Christophe Fejean, and David Rousseau. "Evaluation and Optimization of Adsorption Reduction Strategies on Chemical EOR Economics." In International Petroleum Technology Conference. IPTC, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2523/iptc-21810-ms.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract This paper is dedicated to the selection of the most effective way of mitigating surfactant adsorption in chemical EOR flooding. Mitigation strategies based on either water treatment or adsorption inhibitors were benchmarked for a sea water injection brine, on both performances and economics aspects. Performances in surfactant adsorption reduction were evaluated by applying salinity and/or hardness gradient strategies through dedicated water softening techniques, such as reverse osmosis or nanofiltration. Adsorption inhibitor addition, which does not require any water treatment, was also assessed and optimized for comparison. For each scenario, a suitable surfactant formulation was designed and evaluated through phase diagrams, static adsorption and diphasic coreflood experiments. Then the real benefit of surfactant adsorption reduction on the overall EOR process economics (including the costs of chemicals and water treatment) was assessed depending on the selected strategy. Sea water was considered as the injection brine for this study as it is widely used in chemical EOR process and often suffers high surfactant adsorption level. It was found that residual oil saturation after chemical flooding (SORc) dropped from 29% to 7% by applying a hardness gradient through nanofiltration process while 4% was reached with reverse osmosis. Regarding costs and footprint however, nanofiltration was found to be more advantageous. Adsorption inhibitors addition met similar performances to nanofiltration-based process (SORc=7%) and could be a valuable option depending on injected volume (pilot or small deployment) or field location (off-shore) as they do not require water treatment plant investment. Overall, this study provides useful practical insights on both performances and economics for selecting the most adapted strategy depending on the considered field case.
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Rahadian, R. "Reservoir Management Paradigm Shift Upon Successful Recent Drilling Well of Sungai Gelam Field, Jambi." In Indonesian Petroleum Association 44th Annual Convention and Exhibition. Indonesian Petroleum Association, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.29118/ipa21-e-44.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Sungai Gelam structure is one of the backbone brownfield structures supporting Jambi field oil productions. Geologically, Sungai Gelam is highly related to structural-trap type which commonly occur in Air Benakat Formation, as main hydrocarbon producer. There are total 29 wells in Sungai Gelam penetrate the Air Benakat Formation, some extend through the Talang Akar Formation. Re-evaluation of the last two years (S-25 and S-26) of infill drilling program indicate unsatisfactory production results. The latest two wells which have been drilled in 2018 have been used to update velocity model, facies model and the reservoir simulation. Considering tremendous depth uncertainty on the western part of the field, several new infill well locations have now been planned to recover bypassed oil within the existing wells, to acquire new velocity data and to be water injection conversion-ready location for the productive reservoirs. The overall reservoir management approach has been thought to be the most benign option for the field. Well S-27 has been approved in 2019 as one of the best infill locations. The well location bears the lowest risks and produces a naturally flowing 286 BOPD far beyond the predicted oil target. It also yields a 2040 psia virgin formation pressure oil column from new N1 sand productive target which have not fully developed by the existing wells. The discovery leads to a speedy work over program at the existing nearby well, S-23, and produces 212 BOPD with 0% water cut. Two infill wells acceleration have been proposed for year 2020. The field’s reservoir characterization study has been yet again recycled by the new target oil. The field has now been under drastic redevelopment plan with more detailed reservoir flow unit modeling, new data acquisition, PSDM seismic reprocessing, new infill wells and step-out wells targeting deeper reservoirs. Sungai Gelam field development shows strong fundamental yet versatile field reservoir management rendering to real-time drilling data. New findings have been seamlessly adjusted in the framework and acted upon accordingly. Production of S-27 and S-23 well then accelerate additional two drilling wells which drilled in 2020.
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Thamilyanan, Thivyashini, Hasmizah Bakar, Irzee Zawawi, and Siti Aishah Mohd Hatta. "Low Well Cost: Effective Cost Optimisation for Marginal Green Field Development Using Fit-for-Purpose Well Design." In IADC/SPE Asia Pacific Drilling Technology Conference. SPE, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/200988-ms.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract During the low oil price era, the ability to deliver a small business investment yet high monetary gains was the epitome of success. A marginal field with its recent success of appraisal drilling which tested 3000bopd will add monetary value if it is commercialized as early as possible. However, given its marginal Stock Tank Oil Initially in Place (STOIIP), the plan to develop this field become a real challenge to the team to find a fit-for-purpose investment to maximize the project value. Luxuries such as sand control, artificial lift and frequent well intervention need to be considered for the most cost-effective measures throughout the life of field ‘Xion’. During field development study, several development strategies were proposed to overcome the given challenges such as uncertainty of reservoir connectivity, no gas lift supply, limited footprint to cater surface equipment and potential sand production. Oriented perforation, Insitu Gas Lift (IGL), Pressure Downhole Gauge (PDG), Critical Drawdown Pressure (CDP) monitoring is among the approaches used to manage the field challenges will be discussed in this paper. Since there are only two wells required to develop this field, a minimum intervention well is the best option to improve the project economics. This paper will discuss the method chosen to optimize the well and completion strategy cost so that it can overcome the challenges mentioned above in the most cost-effective approach. Artificial lift will utilize the shallower gas reservoirs through IGL in comparison to conventional gas lift. Sand Production monitoring will utilize the PDG by monitoring the CDP. The perforation strategy will employ the oriented perforation to reduce the sand free drawdown limit compare to the full perforation strategy. The strategy to monitor production through PDG will also reduce the number of interventions to acquire pressure data in establishing reservoir connectivity for the second phase development through secondary recovery and reservoir pressure maintenance plan. This paper will also explain the innovative approaches adopted for this early monetization and fast track project which is only completed within 4 months. This paper will give merit to petroleum engineers and well completion engineers involved in the development of marginal fields.