Дисертації з теми "Numerical weather forecasting Australia"
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Yan, Hanjun. "Numerical methods for data assimilation in weather forecasting." HKBU Institutional Repository, 2018. https://repository.hkbu.edu.hk/etd_oa/555.
Повний текст джерелаTorrisi, Lucio. "The numerical weather prediction system at the Italian Air Force Weather Service : impact of non-conventional observations and increased resolution /." Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 2004. http://library.nps.navy.mil/uhtbin/hyperion/04Jun%5FTorrisi.pdf.
Повний текст джерелаAncell, Brian C. "The nature of adjoint sensitivities with respect to model parameters and their use in adaptive data assimilation /." Thesis, Connect to this title online; UW restricted, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/10042.
Повний текст джерелаCordy, Paul David. "Applied automated numerical avalanche forecasting using electronic weather sensor data." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/32241.
Повний текст джерелаArts, Faculty of
Geography, Department of
Graduate
Lawless, Amos S. "Development of linear models for data assimilation in numerical weather prediction." Thesis, University of Reading, 2001. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.365423.
Повний текст джерелаBilodeau, Bernard. "Accuracy of a truncated barotropic spectral model : numerical versus analytical solutions." Thesis, McGill University, 1985. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=66037.
Повний текст джерелаXue, Ming. "A nonhydrostatic numerical model in sigma-coordinates and simulations of mesoscale phenomena." Thesis, University of Reading, 1989. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.328942.
Повний текст джерелаRamamurthy, Mohan K. "Four dimensional data assimilation in a limited area model for the monsoon region /." Full-text version available from OU Domain via ProQuest Digital Dissertations, 1986.
Знайти повний текст джерелаWahl, Sabrina [Verfasser]. "Uncertainty in mesoscale numerical weather prediction: probabilistic forecasting of precipitation / Sabrina Wahl." Bonn : Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Bonn, 2015. http://d-nb.info/1080561099/34.
Повний текст джерелаVetra-Carvalho, Sanita. "Properties of the ensemble Kalman filter for convective-scale numerical weather forecasting." Thesis, University of Reading, 2013. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.590111.
Повний текст джерелаLiu, Jia. "Rainfall-runoff modelling and numerical weather prediction for real-time flood forecasting." Thesis, University of Bristol, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1983/87375e5e-4186-4707-b7c6-465617dc1ac1.
Повний текст джерелаBatt, Kenneth Leslie School of Mathematics UNSW. "The observation and modelling of winds over South Eastern Australia." Awarded by:University of New South Wales. School of Mathematics, 2004. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/23472.
Повний текст джерелаRoch, Michel. "L'impact de l'assimilation directe de taux de précipitation satellitaires dans un modèle météorologique." Thesis, McGill University, 1986. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=66080.
Повний текст джерелаMoatshe, Peggy Seanokeng. "Verification of South African Weather Service operational seasonal forecasts." Pretoria: [S.n.], 2009. http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-08112009-131703.
Повний текст джерелаCutler, Nicholas Jeffrey Electrical Engineering & Telecommunications Faculty of Engineering UNSW. "Characterising the uncertainty in potential large rapid changes in wind power generation." Publisher:University of New South Wales. Electrical Engineering & Telecommunications, 2009. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/43570.
Повний текст джерелаTenna, Alyce. "An evaluation of the weather research and forecasting model's ability in simulating fire weather for the Southwest of Western Australia." Thesis, Tenna, Alyce (2016) An evaluation of the weather research and forecasting model's ability in simulating fire weather for the Southwest of Western Australia. Honours thesis, Murdoch University, 2016. https://researchrepository.murdoch.edu.au/id/eprint/35249/.
Повний текст джерелаSmith, Robert K. "The contour-advective semi-Lagrangian hybrid algorithm approach to weather forecasting and freely propagating inertia-gravity waves in the shallow-water system." Thesis, St Andrews, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10023/716.
Повний текст джерелаTorn, Ryan. "Using ensemble data assimilation for predictability and dynamics /." Thesis, Connect to this title online; UW restricted, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/10037.
Повний текст джерелаMarx, Hester Gerbrecht. "The use of artificial neural networks to enhance numerical weather prediction model forecasts of temperature and rainfall." Diss., Pretoria : [s.n.], 2008. http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-02102009-161401/.
Повний текст джерелаDevlin, David J. J. "An investigation into the use of balance in operational numerical weather prediction." Thesis, University of St Andrews, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10023/1903.
Повний текст джерелаMartínez-Arellano, G. "Forecasting wind power for the day-ahead market using numerical weather prediction models and computational intelligence techniques." Thesis, Nottingham Trent University, 2015. http://irep.ntu.ac.uk/id/eprint/322/.
Повний текст джерелаWahl, Douglas Timothy. "Increasing range and lethality of Extended -Range Munitions (ERMS) using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and the AUV workbench to compute a Ballistic Correction (BALCOR)." Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Naval Postgraduate School, 2006. http://bosun.nps.edu/uhtbin/hyperion.exe/06Dec%5FWahl.pdf.
Повний текст джерелаThesis Advisor(s): Wendell Nuss, Don Brutzmann. "December 2006." Includes bibliographical references (p. 107-116). Also available in print.
Gerard, Luc. "Physical parameterisations for a high resolution operational numerical weather prediction model." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/211550.
Повний текст джерелаLes processus d'échelle inférieure à la maille jouent néanmoins un rôle essentiel dans les transferts et les bilans de chaleur, humidité et quantité de mouvement. Les paramétrisations physiques visent à évaluer les termes de source correspondant à ces phénomènes, et apparaissant dans les équations des champs moyens aux points de grille.
Lorsque l'on diminue la taille des mailles afin de représenter plus finement l'évolution des phénomènes atmosphériques, certaines hypothèses utilisées dans ces paramétrisations perdent leur validité. Le problème se pose surtout quand la taille des mailles passe en dessous d'une dizaine de kilomètres, se rapprochant de la taille des grands systèmes de nuages convectifs (systèmes orageux, lignes de grain).
Ce travail s'inscrit dans le cadre des développements du modèle à mailles fines ARPÈGE ALADIN, utilisé par une douzaine de pays pour l'élaboration de prévisions à courte échéance (jusque 48 heures).
Nous décrivons d'abord l'ensemble des paramétrisations physiques du modèle.
Suit une analyse détaillée de la paramétrisation actuelle de la convection profonde. Nous présentons également notre contribution personnelle à celle ci, concernant l'entraînement de la quantité de mouvement horizontale dans le nuage convectif.
Nous faisons ressortir les principaux points faibles ou hypothèses nécessitant des mailles de grandes dimensions, et dégageons les voies pour de nouveaux développements.
Nous approfondissons ensuite deux des aspects sortis de cette discussion: l'usage de variables pronostiques de l'activité convective, et la prise en compte de différences entre l'environnement immédiat du nuage et les valeurs des champs à grande échelle. Ceci nous conduit à la réalisation et la mise en œuvre d'un schéma pronostique de la convection profonde.
A ce schéma devraient encore s'ajouter une paramétrisation pronostique des phases condensées suspendues (actuellement en cours de développement par d'autres personnes) et quelques autres améliorations que nous proposons.
Des tests de validation et de comportement du schéma pronostique ont été effectués en modèle à aire limitée à différentes résolutions et en modèle global. Dans ce dernier cas l'effet du nouveau schéma sur les bilans globaux est également examiné.
Ces expériences apportent un éclairage supplémentaire sur le comportement du schéma convectif et les problèmes de partage entre la schéma de convection profonde et le schéma de précipitation de grande échelle.
La présente étude fait donc le point sur le statut actuel des différentes paramétrisations du modèle, et propose des solutions pratiques pour améliorer la qualité de la représentation des phénomènes convectifs.
L'utilisation de mailles plus petites que 5 km nécessite enfin de lever l'hypothèse hydrostatique dans les équations de grande échelle, et nous esquissons les raffinements supplémentaires de la paramétrisation possibles dans ce cas.
Doctorat en sciences appliquées
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
Yu, Wansik. "Ensemble Flood Forecasting using High-Resolution Ensemble Numerical Weather Prediction with Radar Based Prediction Considering Rainfall Forecast Uncertainty." 京都大学 (Kyoto University), 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/192164.
Повний текст джерелаShepherd, Tristan James. "A Numerical Modelling Study of Tropical Cyclone Sidr (2007): Sensitivity Experiments Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Geography, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/2611.
Повний текст джерелаHoyos, Carlos D. "Intraseasonal Variability: Processes, Predictability and Prospects for Prediction." Diss., Available online, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2006, 2006. http://etd.gatech.edu/theses/available/etd-04102006-135125/.
Повний текст джерелаDr. Peter J. Webster, Committee Chair ; Dr. Judith A. Curry, Committee Member ; Dr. Robert Dickinson, Committee Member ; Dr. Robert X. Black, Committee Member ; Dr. Predrag Cvitanovic, Committee Member.
Khajehei, Sepideh. "A Multivariate Modeling Approach for Generating Ensemble Climatology Forcing for Hydrologic Applications." PDXScholar, 2015. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/2403.
Повний текст джерелаLopes, Francisco Manuel Tavares. "Short-term forecasting for direct normal irradiance with numerical weather prediction models in Alentejo (Southern Portugal): implications for concentration solar energy technologies." Doctoral thesis, Universidade de Évora, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10174/28724.
Повний текст джерелаDixon, Glen W. "Modelling the statistical behaviour of temperature using a modified Brennan and Schwarts (1982) interest rate model /." [St. Lucia, Qld], 2004. http://www.library.uq.edu.au/pdfserve.php?image=thesisabs/absthe18235.pdf.
Повний текст джерелаThornes, Tobias. "Investigating the potential for improving the accuracy of weather and climate forecasts by varying numerical precision in computer models." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2018. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:038874a3-710a-476d-a9f7-e94ef1036648.
Повний текст джерелаAnderson, John W. "An analysis of a dust storm impacting Operation Iraqi Freedom, 25-27 March 2003." Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 2004. http://library.nps.navy.mil/uhtbin/hyperion/04Dec%5FAnderson.pdf.
Повний текст джерелаVasconi, Matteo. "Sensitivity of forecast skill to the parameterisation of moist convection in the COSMO model." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2017. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/14566/.
Повний текст джерелаLandry, Jennifer Jacobs. "Coastal Ocean Variability off the Coast of Taiwan in Response to Typhoon Morakot: River Forcing, Atmospheric Forcing, and Cold Dome Dynamics." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/43427.
Повний текст джерелаMultidisciplinary Simulation, Estimation, and Assimilation Systems, Reports in Ocean Science and Engineering, MSEAS-20
The ocean is a complex, constantly changing, highly dynamical system. Prediction capabilities are constantly being improved in order to better understand and forecast ocean properties for applications in science, industry, and maritime interests. Our overarching goal is to better predict the ocean environment in regions of complex topography with a continental shelf, shelfbreak, canyons and steep slopes using the MIT Multidisciplinary Simulation, Estimation and Assimilation Systems (MSEAS) primitive-equation ocean model. We did this by focusing on the complex region surrounding Taiwan, and the period of time immediately following the passage of Typhoon Morakot. This area and period were studied extensively as part of the intense observation period during August - September 2009 of the joint U.S. - Taiwan program Quantifying, Predicting, and Exploiting Uncertainty Department Research Initiative (QPE DRI). Typhoon Morakot brought an unprecedented amount of rainfall within a very short time period and in this research, we model and study the effects of this rainfall on Taiwan’s coastal oceans as a result of river discharge. We do this through the use of a river discharge model and a bulk river-ocean mixing model. We complete a sensitivity study of the primitive-equation ocean model simulations to the different parameters of these models. By varying the shape, size, and depth of the bulk mixing model footprint, and examining the resulting impacts on ocean salinity forecasts, we are able to determine an optimal combination of salinity relaxation factors for highest accuracy.
Bender, Fabiani Denise. "Verificação da previsão do tempo em São Paulo com o modelo operacional WRF." Universidade de São Paulo, 2012. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/14/14133/tde-19122012-120128/.
Повний текст джерелаForecasts of daily maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall performed by the operational numerical weather prediction WRF (Weather Research Forecasting) model in the São Paulo are evaluated. Initial and boundary conditions provided by the 00UTC Global Forecast System (GFS) Model and WRF run for 72 hours, with two nested grids (with horizontal grid spacing of 50 km, D1, and 16.6 km, D2). The study was made for April 2010 to March 2011 period. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures comparisons were made, between predicted and observed data of the surface weather stations of Registro, São Paulo, Paranapanema, Campinas, Presidente Prudente and Votuporanga (CIIAGRO Data), through the mean error (ME) and root mean square error(RMSE), for the 36, 60 and 72 hours forecasts. The daily accumulated rainfall is evaluated using MODE with respect to the MERGE product, for the 36 hours forecast, with threshold of 0.3 mm over the spatial domain covering the State of São Paulo and neighborhoods. First, an analysis was made comparing grid pairs of predicted and observed fields, through the traditional statistical verification indexes: accuracy (PA), critical success index (ICS), bias (VIES), probability of detection (PD) and false alarm ratio (RFA). Subsequently, we analyzed the precipitation field with respect to area ratio (AR), distance from the centroids (DC), ratio of the 50th percentile (RP50) and ratio of the 90th percentile (RP90). The WRF, with D2 nested grid, had better performance compared to the grid of lower space resolution (higher horizontal grid spacing, D1) for both, daily temperatures (maximum and minimum) and the accumulated rainfall forecasts. The temperature forecast presented a damped pattern, with underestimated maximum and overestimated minimum values. Rainfall was overall overestimated spatially and in intensity for the three models throughout the analized period. The forecasted 50th percentile is generally higher than that observed, however, the 90th percentile is closer to observations. The results also indicate that the bias of the models varies annually. The best performances for both rainfall and temperature were obtained for the summer season, with the D2 showing slightly better results. However, the models had the biggest errors during the winter and autumn seasons. These errors were due to underestimation of maximum temperatures and overestimation in area and intensity of precipitation.
Bossavy, Arthur. "Caractérisation et prédiction probabiliste des variations brusques et importantes de la production éolienne." Phd thesis, Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris, 2012. http://pastel.archives-ouvertes.fr/pastel-00803234.
Повний текст джерелаSanz, Rodrigo Javier. "On antarctic wind engineering." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/209953.
Повний текст джерелаThe first issue in remote places like Antarctica is the lack of site wind measurements and meteorological information in general. In order to complement this shortage of information various meteorological databases have been surveyed. Global Reanalyses, produced by the European Met Office ECMWF, and RACMO/ANT mesoscale model simulations, produced by the Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research of Utrecht University (IMAU), have been validated versus independent observations from a network of 115 automatic weather stations. The resolution of these models, of some tens of kilometers, is sufficient to characterize the wind climate in areas of smooth topography like the interior plateaus or the coastal ice shelves. In contrast, in escarpment and coastal areas, where the terrain gets rugged and katabatic winds are further intensified in confluence zones, the models lack resolution and underestimate the wind velocity.
The Antarctic atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is characterized by the presence of strong katabatic winds that are generated by the presence of surface temperature inversions in sloping terrain. This inversion is persistent in Antarctica due to an almost continuous cooling by longwave radiation, especially during the winter night. As a result, the ABL is stably stratified most of the time and, only when the wind speed is high it becomes near neutrally stratified. This thesis also aims at making a critical review of the hypothesis underlying wind engineering models when extreme boundary layer situations are faced. It will be shown that the classical approach of assuming a neutral log-law in the surface layer can hold for studies of wind loading under strong winds but can be of limited use when detailed assessments are pursued.
The Antarctic landscape, mostly composed of very long fetches of ice covered terrain, makes it an optimum natural laboratory for the development of homogeneous boundary layers, which are a basic need for the formulation of ABL theories. Flux-profile measurements, made at Halley Research Station in the Brunt Ice Shelf by the British Antarctic Survery (BAS), have been used to analyze boundary layer similarity in view of formulating a one-dimensional ABL model. A 1D model of the neutral and stable boundary layer with a transport model for blowing snow has been implemented and verified versus test cases of the literature. A validation of quasi-stationary homogeneous profiles at different levels of stability confirms that such 1D models can be used to classify wind profiles to be used as boundary conditions for detailed 3D computational wind engineering studies.
A summary of the wind engineering activities carried out during the design of the Antarctic Research Station is provided as contextual reference and point of departure of this thesis. An elevated building on top of sloping terrain and connected to an under-snow garage constitutes a challenging environment for building design. Building aerodynamics and snowdrift management were tested in the von Karman Institute L1B wind tunnel for different building geometries and ridge integrations. Not only for safety and cost reduction but also for the integration of renewable energies, important benefits in the design of a building can be achieved if wind engineering is considered since the conceptual phase of the integrated building design process.
Doctorat en Sciences de l'ingénieur
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
García, León Manuel. "Coastal risk forecast system : fostering proactive management at the Catalan coast." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/669662.
Повний текст джерелаLa acción de los temporales de mar es uno de los procesos litorales más complejos, con profundas implicaciones en la gestión del litoral. A lo largo de la línea de costa catalana, 190 km están sometidos a erosión y/o inundación. Cerca de un millón de personas viven en áreas potencialmente afectadas. La tradición en ingeniería y gestión costera han sido intervenciones reactivas. Esta tesis propone una estrategia pre-tormenta que fomente una serie de medidas eco-compatibles, denominadas Medidas de Acción Rápida (MAR). Las intervenciones pre-tormenta requieren predecir el estado post-temporal de la costa. Por tanto, el principal objetivo de esta tesis es evaluar el riesgo costero episódico mediante un Sistema de Alarma Temprana Costero (CEWS), denominado LIM-COPAS, que predice las peligrosidades costeras más relevantes en dicha área. LIM-COPAS consiste de cuatro módulos: (i) modelo meteorológico; (ii) código de generación/propagación del oleaje; (iii) modelo acoplado morfo-hidrodinámico y (iv) un módulo de riesgo vía modelos probabilísticos multivariantes y no-estacionarios. El comportamiento de estos módulos ha sido analizado mediante (i) una serie de eventos pasados y (ii) temporales sintéticos. Los eventos pasados han sido: Diciembre 2008 (D-08); Octubre 2015 (O-15); Noviembre 2015 (N-15); Enero 2016 (J-16); Febrero 2016 (F-16); Diciembre 2016 (D-16) y Enero 2017 (J-17). En D-08, los errores en los parámetros espectrales de oleaje costero han sido casi el doble que en mar abierto. El error ha sido del 20% en la hidrodinámica y del 50% en la morfodinámica. La respuesta post-temporal ha sido reproducida aceptablemente, con Brier Skill Score cercanos a 0.4. LIM-COPAS ha demostrado buena precisión con tormentas de alto período de retorno (i.e. Tr,waves _ 10 yrs, D-16 y J-17), pero menor concordancia fue encontrada para las tormentas moderadas (i.e. O-15 y F-16). El módulo meteorológico estimó campos de viento que fueron sistemáticamente sobreestimados. El Sesgo Medio (MB) integrado fue de −1,52 ± 0,78 m/s. Tarragona (Coeficiente de Eficiencia, COE = 0,27±0,13) y Begur (COE = 0,29±0,17) tuvieron métricas por encima de la media (COE = 0,24±0,14); no obstante, peor ajuste se encontró en Mahón (COE = 0,13 ± 0,16) y Dragonera. Las métricas de oleaje fueron más precisas que las del viento. Hs COE integrada fue 0,52±0,12 y Tm02 COE fue 0,36±0,14. En la costa central, Hs presentó buenas métricas: bajo MB (−0,06 ± 0,08 m) y alto COE (0,58 ± 0,11). Las métricas en la costa norte fueron las más estables. El módulo de riesgo ha sido implementado en 79 playas. La erosión se ha estimado como un coste acotado, mientras que la inundación como un coste con alta cota superior. Las playas disipativas tienden a exhibir mayores costes que las playas reflejantes bajo altos niveles del mar. Episodios con Tr,waves _ 10yrs, concomitantes a mareas meteorológicas pueden conllevar costes significantes. Las pérdidas estimadas para N-15 (2510 · 103euros) no difieren en exceso de J-17 (3200 · 103 euros). Dos tipos de MAR han sido testeadas numéricamente: (i) dunas y (ii) diques exentos constituídos por geotextiles llenos de arena. Los beneficios de mantener estables los volúmenes de arena superan la reducción de los costes por inundación. En términos generales, los diques exentos pueden ser una opción adecuada para playas de estado morfodinámico intermedio frente a oleaje de alto período de retorno y niveles del mar bajos a moderados. En playas disipativas, las dunas son la mejor opción, pero requieren un ancho mínimo de playa (cerca de 30 m) que garantice su vida útil. La funcionalidad de las MAR puede mejorarse mediante acciones compatibles a largo-plazo (alimentaciones, bypass de arena, vegetación sumergida, etc.). Un estado de playa saludable es esencial para la efectividad de las MAR. Una gestión más sostenible bajo clima presente y futuro puede ser alcanzada mediante (i) CEWS como herramienta de predicción a corto plazo; (ii) MAR que mitiguen los impactos de los temporales y (iii) intervenciones a largo-plazo que mejoren la salud de la costa.
Trapero, i. Bagué Laura. "Modelització de precipitacions intenses en zones d'orografia complexa: casos d'estudi al Pirineu Oriental." Doctoral thesis, Universitat de Barcelona, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/285202.
Повний текст джерелаHeavy precipitation events over complex terrain are often favoured by enhancement mechanisms of precipitation. The windward slopes of the Eastern Pyrenees, as other mountainous Mediterranean regions, are regularly affected by heavy precipitation events (HPE). This present work benefits from high resolution numerical simulations of several case studies to investigate the synoptic and mesoscale environment favourable to precipitating systems development over the Eastern Pyrenees. The mesoscale models WRF and MESO-NH run at horizontal grid-lengths of 2.5-2 km have reproduced realistic precipitation structures over the Pyrenees but the uncertainty associated to sensitivities to initial conditions and microphysics has also been highlighted. The analysis has been done for both stable and conditionally unstable conditions. The former part of the analysis has explored the application of the results from purely idealized simulations or previous studies in other mountainous regions to the case study simulations. For conditionally unstable events with dynamic evolving conditions (Mediterranean cyclogenesis), the analysis of a triggering term and the moist Froude number reflects the complexity of applying theoretical results. On the other hand, for winter northerly stable flows the precipitation field reveals a dependency on the upstream Froude number. These patterns are synthesised in a conceptual model. Backward trajectories based on Eulerian on-line passive tracers indicate that the direct orographic lifting is the main forcing mechanism which triggers precipitating systems over the Pyrenees. For stable conditions, the simulations capture the formation of an along barrier flow in the north slope due to the blocking effect exerted by the Pyrenees. Under specific mesoscale configurations, a distinct confluence zone is also formed in the easternmost part of the massif, which in turn favours the generation of a well developed density current. The understanding of the microphysical processes involved in precipitation enhancement has been examined by means of the hydrometeor vertical distribution. The dominant mechanisms for intense precipitation are associated with graupel. From the lagrangian analysis of the feeding flow in the conditionally unstable episodes, the simulations indicate a marked dependence of the precipitation intensity over the Pyrenees on two factors: the cross-barrier wind intensity and the moisture advection towards the Pyrenees in the lower atmosphere. Different ranges have been suggested to discriminate the orographic precipitation intensity over the Pyrenees. In general, the stronger the cross-barrier component wind and the water vapour flux the more intense the orographic precipitation will be. During the most intense winter event, the detection of a narrow corridor of strong water vapour transport (atmospheric river; 550 kg/m•s) contributed to the generation of persistent precipitation. A similar situation occurred during the 1982 HPE when the Atlantic moist and warm conveyor belt combined with a LLJ (30 m/s) impinged over the Eastern Pyrenees more than 10 h. For this last episode, it has been also proved the limited role of the Mediterranean as local moisture source (2-3 g/kg) as the moisture coming from remote source regions (subtropical Atlantic and Africa) is larger (7-9 g/kg).
Kurzrock, Frederik. "Assimilation de données satellitaires géostationnaires dans des modèles atmosphériques à aire limitée pour la prévision du rayonnement solaire en région tropicale." Thesis, La Réunion, 2019. https://elgebar.univ-reunion.fr/login?url=http://thesesenligne.univ.run/19_13_FKurzrock.pdf.
Повний текст джерелаThe variability of solar irradiance necessitates to limit the instantaneous feed-in of solar power to electricity grids. An improvement of solar irradiance forecasts would allow to increase the defined threshold limits, especially in non-interconnected zones such as Reunion Island. Achieving higher forecast accuracy is particularly challenging in the case of tropical islands due to pronounced convection and local thermal circulations. Limited-area numerical weather prediction (NWP) models allow to forecast cloud processes and solar irradiance at high spatio-temporal resolutions of a few kilometres and minutes. Nevertheless, they often fail to accurately predict cloudiness evolution and thus tend to overestimate solar irradiance. Refining the initial conditions of regional models in terms of clouds is an efficient means for improving short-term cloud cover and irradiance forecasts. The assimilation of geostationary meteorological satellite observations can achieve this improvement. Nevertheless, a variety of satellite data assimilation (DA) approaches exist and research has focused on mid-latitudes so far. This thesis deals with the assimilation of geostationary satellite observations with limited-area models in the southwestern Indian Ocean. In a first step, the state of the art in terms of existing approaches for radiance and cloud property retrieval assimilation with regional-scale models is reviewed. In consequence, one of the most promising approaches is identified and applied to the southwestern Indian Ocean. In the performed experiments, multi-phase cloud water path retrievals from NASA Langley's SatCORPS cloud products are assimilated with an ensemble Kalman filter using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. A 41-member ensemble at 12 km grid spacing is applied with a DA cycling interval of 6 hours. The Data Assimilation Research Testbed and its forward operator for cloud water path are used to assimilate gridded cloud water retrievals in the ice, supercooled liquid, and liquid phase. The impact of this assimilation approach on forecasts of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) is evaluated for austral summer 2017/2018 using pyranometer observations on Reunion Island. A distinct positive impact of the applied method on the first 14 hours of GHI forecasts is found. Different aspects of the forecast improvement due to DA are analysed by means of control experiments without DA, experiments with a nested domain at 4 km grid spacing, and a comparison with operational NWP models. As the utilised gridded cloud products are available globally, the method offers a portable and globally applicable approach that may also be evaluated for other regions of the Earth
Roeger, Claudia. "Verification of numerical weather prediction and avalanche forecasting." Thesis, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/11590.
Повний текст джерелаHarper, Kristine C. "Boundaries of research : civilian leadership, military funding, and the international network surrounding the development of numerical weather prediction in the United States." Thesis, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/1957/30321.
Повний текст джерелаGraduation date: 2003
Jordan, Mark Rickman Krishnamurti T. N. "Using the superensemble method to improve Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone forecasting." Diss., 2005. http://etd.lib.fsu.edu/theses/available/etd-09212005-152853.
Повний текст джерелаAdvisor: T. N. Krishnamurti, Florida State University, College of Arts and Sciences, Dept. of Meteorology. Title and description from dissertation home page (viewed Jan. 26, 2006). Document formatted into pages; contains xi, 64 pages. Includes bibliographical references.
Cartwright, Tina Johnson Krishnamurti T. N. "Warm season mesoscale superensemble precipitation forecasts." 2004. http://etd.lib.fsu.edu/theses/available/etd-10252004-132554.
Повний текст джерелаAdvisor: Dr. T.N. Krishnamurti, Florida State University, College of Arts and Sciences, Dept. of Meteorology. Title and description from dissertation home page (viewed Jan. 14, 2005). Includes bibliographical references.
Smith, Travis Allen Cunningham Philip. "Analysis and evolution of balance in unstable barotropic jets." 2004. http://etd.lib.fsu.edu/theses/available/etd-07022004-115226.
Повний текст джерелаAdvisor: Dr. Philip Cunningham, Florida State University, College of Arts and Sciences, Dept. of Meteorology. Title and description from dissertation home page (viewed Sept. 22, 2004). Includes bibliographical references.
Yen-Ming, Chiang. "Artificial Neural Networks in Hydrometeorology-Flood Forecasting from Radar and Numerical Weather Prediction Information." 2007. http://www.cetd.com.tw/ec/thesisdetail.aspx?etdun=U0001-1801200717585100.
Повний текст джерелаChiang, Yen-Ming, and 江衍銘. "Artificial Neural Networks in Hydrometeorology-Flood Forecasting from Radar and Numerical Weather Prediction Information." Thesis, 2007. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/43407252787836895747.
Повний текст джерела國立臺灣大學
生物環境系統工程學研究所
95
The major purpose of this dissertation is to effectively construct artificial neural networks-based multi-step-ahead flood forecasting using radar and numerical weather prediction information. To achieve this goal, three investigations by using neural networks for rainfall estimation and/or rainfall-runoff process simulation have been performed to explore their accuracy and applicability. The first topic investigates the model forecasts through static and dynamic neural networks by using four sets of training data which consist of different sample sizes and contents. Performance of these two types of networks suggest that the dynamic neural network generally could produce better and more stable forecasts than the static neural network, and the static model could produce satisfactory results only when sufficient and adequate training data are provided. The second topic focuses on the evaluation of effectiveness and stability of three neural networks-based multi-step-ahead forecasts in terms of model structures. The results indicate that a neural network with a serial-propagated structure can help in improving the accuracy of forecasts. This concept not only provides a possibility of finding better solution for multi-step-ahead forecasts but enhances the predictive reliability. Results from above two studies are further utilized in the third topic which is to construct a precise and feasible multi-step-ahead flood forecasting. For better multi-step-ahead flood forecasting, there is a necessity to conduct the predicted meteorological information. Therefore, an improved quantitative precipitation forecasting is obtained from a merging procedure that combines radar-derived predictions and precipitation forecasts extracted from a numerical weather prediction model. The comparison of multi-step-ahead flood forecasting derived from the serial- propagated structure and the merged precipitation prediction is made by estimating the timing and the percent error of a predicted peak flow relate to observed peak flow and the corresponding improvement. Based on the comprehensive comparison, the merging procedure successfully demonstrates the capability of efficiently combining the information from both rainfall sources and improves the accuracy of 1-6 h precipitation predictions. For multi-step-ahead flood forecasting, an important finding is the hydrologic responses seem not sensitive to the precipitation predictions in short lead times (in our case 1 to 3 hours) but dominate by previous runoff information, whereas the model forecasts are highly dependent on predicted precipitation information for lead time greater than 3 hours. Overall, the results strongly demonstrate that accurate and stable multi-step-ahead flood forecasting can be obtained from a serial-propagated structure and enhanced by the proposed precipitation predictions.
Lin, Lin Jin Feifei. "A numerical analysis of the first-order closure for synoptic eddy and low-frequency flow (SELF)-feedback." Diss., 2005. http://etd.lib.fsu.edu/theses/available/etd-07112005-160540/.
Повний текст джерелаAdvisor: Dr. Feifei Jin, Florida State University, College of Arts and Sciences, Dept. of Meteorology. Title and description from dissertation home page (viewed Sept. 19, 2005). Document formatted into pages; contains vii, 42 pages. Includes bibliographical references.
Ventham, Justin D. "Large scale environmental wind patterns and the intensification rates of western north Pacific tropical storms." 2005. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?index=0&did=1042535681&SrchMode=2&sid=2&Fmt=2&VInst=PROD&VType=PQD&RQT=309&VName=PQD&TS=1263238934&clientId=23440.
Повний текст джерелаMalakar, Preeti. "Integrated Parallel Simulations and Visualization for Large-Scale Weather Applications." Thesis, 2013. http://etd.iisc.ernet.in/2005/3907.
Повний текст джерела(10285328), Connor Paul Belak. "Verification of simulated DSDs and sensitivity to CCN concentration in EnKF analysis and ensemble forecasts of the 30 April 2017 tornadic QLCS during VORTEX-SE." Thesis, 2021.
Знайти повний текст джерелаStorms in the SE-US often evolve in different environments than those in the central Plains. Many poorly understood aspects of these differing environments may impact the tornadic potential of SE-US storms. Among these differences are potential variations in the CCN concentration owing to differences in land cover, combustion, industrial and urban activity, and proximity to maritime environments. The relative influence of warm and cold rain processes is sensitive to CCN concentration, with higher CCN concentrations producing smaller cloud droplets and more efficient cold rain processes. Cold rain processes result in DSDs with relatively larger drops from melting ice compared to warm rain processes. Differences in DSDs impact cold pool and downdraft size and strength, that influence tornado potential. This study investigates the impact of CCN concentration on DSDs in the SE-US by comparing DSDs from ARPS-EnKF model analyses and forecasts to observed DSDs from portable disdrometer-equipped probes collected by a collaboration between Purdue University, the University of Oklahoma (OU), the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), and the University of Massachusetts in a tornadic QLCS on 30 April 2017 during VORTEX-SE.
The ARPS-EnKF configuration, which consists of 40 ensemble members, is used with the NSSL triple-moment microphysics scheme. Surface and radar observations are both assimilated. Data assimilation experiments with CCN concentrations ranging from 100 cm-3 (maritime) to 2,000 cm-3 (continental) are conducted to characterize the variability of DSDs and the model output DSDs are verified against the disdrometer observations. The sensitivity of the DSD variability to CCN concentrations is evaluated. Results indicate continental CCN concentrations (close to CCN 1,000 cm3) produce DSDs that align closest to the observed DSDs. Other thermodynamic variables also accord better to observations in intermediate CCN concentration environments.