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1
Rabinowitz, Nitzan, and David M. Steinberg. "Seismic hazard sensitivity analysis: A multi-parameter approach." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 81, no. 3 (June 1, 1991): 796–817. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/bssa0810030796.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract We propose a novel multi-parameter approach for conducting seismic hazard sensitivity analysis. This approach allows one to assess the importance of each input parameter at a variety of settings of the other input parameters and thus provides a much richer picture than standard analyses, which assess each input parameter only at the default settings of the other parameters. We illustrate our method with a sensitivity analysis of seismic hazard for Jerusalem. In this example, we find several input parameters whose importance depends critically on the settings of other input parameters. This phenomenon, which cannot be detected by a standard sensitivity analysis, is easily diagnosed by our method. The multi-parameter approach can also be used in the context of a probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard that incorporates subjective probability distributions for the input parameters.
2
Lee, Young Kyu. "Risk Analysis for Reservoir Collapse by a Multi-hazard Approach." Crisis and Emergency Management: Theory and Praxis 14, no. 11 (November 30, 2018): 123–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.14251/crisisonomy.2018.14.11.123.
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Keen, Adam S., and Patrick J. Lynett. "A DESIGN LIFE BASED APPROACH TO MULTI-HAZARD RISK ANALYSIS." Coastal Engineering Proceedings, no. 36 (December 30, 2018): 81. http://dx.doi.org/10.9753/icce.v36.risk.81.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Small craft harbors are important facets to many coastal communities providing a transition from land to ocean. Because of the damage resulting from the 2010 Chile and 2011 Japanese tele-tsunamis, the tsunami risk to the small craft harbors in California has become an important concern. However, tsunamis represent only one of many hazards a harbor is likely to see in California. Other natural hazards including wave attack, wind events, storm surge and sea level rise all can damage a harbor but are not typically addressed collectively in traditional risk studies. Existing approaches to assess small craft harbor vulnerably typically look at single events assigning likely damage levels to each event. However, a harbor will likely experience damage from several different types of hazards over its service life with each event contributing proportionally to the total damage state. The approach presented here will consider the how the damage from many different natural phenomena is likely to be distributed during a harbors service life and how the cumulative effect of the events could contribute to failure potential of components within the harbor.
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Selmi, Mbarka, Yasser Hamdi, and Denis Moiriat. "Multi-Hazard Assessment of a Flood Protection Levee." Atmosphere 13, no. 10 (October 21, 2022): 1741. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos13101741.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Earthquake-induced liquefaction is one of the main causes of levee breaches that can threaten human life and property. Conventionally, liquefaction hazard has been assessed in terms of the factor of safety FoS against liquefaction which ignores the potential variability of groundwater table (GWT) due to precipitation events. A probabilistic methodology, taking into account these GWT variations over time, is therefore presented in this study to assess the liquefaction hazard of an earthen flood protection levee. A frequency analysis based on the Annual Maxima/Generalised Extreme Value (AM/GEV) approach is first used to characterize the distribution of GWT extreme values. The CPT-based method is then applied with the provided GWT scenarios to predict liquefaction and display the hazard curves. Assuming a single constant GWT estimate during an earthquake revealed a certain liquefaction hazard within a sandy layer. Considering GWT variations during earthquakes showed, however, that liquefaction is unlikely to occur with an FoS threshold set at 1.0. These findings highlight: (1) the conservatism of the conventional approach that overestimates the liquefaction hazard, (2) the importance of the proposed probabilistic approach as a complementary tool for more reliable decision-making, and (3) the dependency of liquefaction hazard predictions on the degree of uncertainty in GWT estimates and FoS threshold.
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Gill, Joel C., and Bruce D. Malamud. "Hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) within multi-hazard methodologies." Earth System Dynamics 7, no. 3 (August 23, 2016): 659–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-659-2016.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract. This paper combines research and commentary to reinforce the importance of integrating hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) into multi-hazard methodologies. We present a synthesis of the differences between multi-layer single-hazard approaches and multi-hazard approaches that integrate such interactions. This synthesis suggests that ignoring interactions between important environmental and anthropogenic processes could distort management priorities, increase vulnerability to other spatially relevant hazards or underestimate disaster risk. In this paper we proceed to present an enhanced multi-hazard framework through the following steps: (i) description and definition of three groups (natural hazards, anthropogenic processes and technological hazards/disasters) as relevant components of a multi-hazard environment, (ii) outlining of three types of interaction relationship (triggering, increased probability, and catalysis/impedance), and (iii) assessment of the importance of networks of interactions (cascades) through case study examples (based on the literature, field observations and semi-structured interviews). We further propose two visualisation frameworks to represent these networks of interactions: hazard interaction matrices and hazard/process flow diagrams. Our approach reinforces the importance of integrating interactions between different aspects of the Earth system, together with human activity, into enhanced multi-hazard methodologies. Multi-hazard approaches support the holistic assessment of hazard potential and consequently disaster risk. We conclude by describing three ways by which understanding networks of interactions contributes to the theoretical and practical understanding of hazards, disaster risk reduction and Earth system management. Understanding interactions and interaction networks helps us to better (i) model the observed reality of disaster events, (ii) constrain potential changes in physical and social vulnerability between successive hazards, and (iii) prioritise resource allocation for mitigation and disaster risk reduction.
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Pham, Hoa, and Huong T. T. Pham. "A Bayesian approach for multi-stage models with linear time-dependent hazard rate." Monte Carlo Methods and Applications 25, no. 4 (December 1, 2019): 307–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/mcma-2019-2051.
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Abstract Multi-stage models have been used to describe progression of individuals which develop through a sequence of discrete stages. We focus on the multi-stage model in which the number of individuals in each stage is assessed through destructive samples for a sequence of sampling time. Moreover, the stage duration distributions of the model are effected by a time-dependent hazard rate. The multi-stage models become complex with a stage having time-dependent hazard rate. The main aim of this paper is to derive analytically the approximation of the likelihood of the model. We apply the approximation to the Metropolis–Hastings (MH) algorithm to estimate parameters for the model. The method is demonstrated by applying to simulated data which combine non-hazard rate, stage-wise constant hazard rate and time-dependent hazard rates in stage duration distributions.
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GUO, X., G. D. H. CLAASSEN, A. G. J. M. OUDE LANSINK, and H. W. SAATKAMP. "A conceptual framework for economic optimization of an animal health surveillance portfolio." Epidemiology and Infection 144, no. 5 (September 29, 2015): 1084–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0950268815002022.
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SUMMARYDecision making on hazard surveillance in livestock product chains is a multi-hazard, multi-stakeholder, and multi-criteria process that includes a variety of decision alternatives. The multi-hazard aspect means that the allocation of the scarce resource for surveillance should be optimized from the point of view of a surveillance portfolio (SP) rather than a single hazard. In this paper, we present a novel conceptual approach for economic optimization of a SP to address the resource allocation problem for a surveillance organization from a theoretical perspective. This approach uses multi-criteria techniques to evaluate the performances of different settings of a SP, taking cost-benefit aspects of surveillance and stakeholders’ preferences into account. The credibility of the approach has also been checked for conceptual validity, data needs and operational validity; the application potentials of the approach are also discussed.
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Nath, S. K., and K. K. S. Thingbaijam. "Seismic hazard assessment – a holistic microzonation approach." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 9, no. 4 (August 14, 2009): 1445–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-1445-2009.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract. The probable mitigation and management issues of seismic hazard necessitate seismic microzonation for hazard and risk assessment at the local level. Such studies are preceded with those at a regional level. A comprehensive framework, therefore, encompasses several phases from information compilations and data recording to analyses and interpretations. The state-of-the-art methodologies involve multi-disciplinary approaches namely geological, seismological, and geotechnical methods delivering multiple perspectives on the prevailing hazard in terms of geology and geomorphology, strong ground motion, site amplification, site classifications, soil liquefaction potential, landslide susceptibility, and predominant frequency. The composite hazard is assessed accounting for all the potential hazard attributing features with relative rankings in a logic tree, fuzzy set or hierarchical concept.
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Soldati, Arianna, Andrea Chiozzi, Željana Nikolić, Carmela Vaccaro, and Elena Benvenuti. "A PROMETHEE Multiple-Criteria Approach to Combined Seismic and Flood Risk Assessment at the Regional Scale." Applied Sciences 12, no. 3 (January 31, 2022): 1527. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app12031527.
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Social vulnerability is deeply affected by the increase in hazardous events such as earthquakes and floods. Such hazards have the potential to greatly affect communities, including in developed countries. Governments and stakeholders must adopt suitable risk reduction strategies. This study is aimed at proposing a qualitative multi-hazard risk analysis methodology in the case of combined seismic and flood risk using PROMETHEE, a Multiple-Criteria Decision Analysis technique. The present case study is a multi-hazard risk assessment of the Ferrara province (Italy). The proposed approach is an original and flexible methodology to qualitatively prioritize urban centers affected by multi-hazard risks at the regional scale. It delivers a useful tool to stakeholders involved in the processes of hazard management and disaster mitigation.
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Gill, Joel C., Bruce D. Malamud, Edy Manolo Barillas, and Alex Guerra Noriega. "Construction of regional multi-hazard interaction frameworks, with an application to Guatemala." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 20, no. 1 (January 14, 2020): 149–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-149-2020.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract. Here we present an interdisciplinary approach to developing comprehensive, systematic, and evidenced visual syntheses of potential natural-hazard interactions at regional scales (or regional interaction frameworks). Frameworks can help with understanding the multi-hazard environment of a specific spatial extent. We explain our approach and apply this in Guatemala, developing regional interaction frameworks for national and sub-national (southern Guatemalan Highlands) spatial extents. The frameworks are constructed and populated using five evidence types relevant to natural-hazard interactions: (A) internationally accessible literature (93 peer-reviewed and 76 grey-literature sources), (B) locally accessible civil-protection bulletins (267 bulletins from 11 June to 15 October 2010), (C) field observations, (D) stakeholder interviews (19 semi-structured interviews), and (E) a stakeholder workshop (16 participants). These five evidence types were synthesised to determine an appropriate natural-hazard classification scheme for Guatemala, with 6 natural-hazard groups, 19 hazard types, and 37 hazard sub-types. For a national spatial extent in Guatemala, we proceed to construct and populate a regional interaction framework (matrix form), identifying 50 possible interactions between 19 hazard types. For a sub-national spatial extent (southern Guatemalan Highlands), we construct and populate a regional interaction framework (matrix form), identifying 114 possible interactions between 33 hazard sub-types relevant in the southern Guatemalan Highlands. We also use this evidence to explore networks of multi-hazard interactions (cascades) and anthropogenic processes that can trigger natural hazards. We present this information through accessible visualisations to improve understanding of multi-hazard interactions in Guatemala. We believe that our regional interaction framework's approach to multi-hazards is scalable, working at global to local scales with differing resolutions of information. Our approach can also be replicated in other geographical settings. We demonstrate how regional interaction frameworks and the discussion of potential scenarios arising from them can help with enhancing the cross-institutional dialogue on multi-hazard interactions and their likelihood and potential impacts. We review future research directions and steps to embed interaction frameworks into agencies contributing to the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction.
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BENSACI, Chaima, Youcef ZENNIR, and Denis POMORSKI. "New Approach to System Safety of human- multi-robot mobile system control with STPA and FTA." Algerian Journal of Signals and Systems 5, no. 1 (March 15, 2020): 79–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.51485/ajss.v5i1.100.
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Autonomous Mobile multi-robots are among the most complex systems in their control. Especially when those robots navigate in hazardous and dynamic environments such as chemical analysis laboratories which include dangerous and harmful products (poisonous, flammable, explosive ...). This study deals the safety problem in a robotic analysis laboratory and investigates the possibility to use those autonomous multi-robots in such environments with the presence of human workers without serious hazards. We used a systems-theoretic hazard analysis technique (STPA) in addition to fault tree analysis to identify the potential safety hazard scenarios, their causal factors and we conclude by a set of recommendations. Keywords: Hazard Analysis, STPA, FTA, Collaborative multi-mobile robots.
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Ward, Philip J., James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, et al. "Invited perspectives: A research agenda towards disaster risk management pathways in multi-(hazard-)risk assessment." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 22, no. 4 (April 26, 2022): 1487–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022.
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Abstract. Whilst the last decades have seen a clear shift in emphasis from managing natural hazards to managing risk, the majority of natural-hazard risk research still focuses on single hazards. Internationally, there are calls for more attention for multi-hazards and multi-risks. Within the European Union (EU), the concepts of multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment and management have taken centre stage in recent years. In this perspective paper, we outline several key developments in multi-(hazard-)risk research in the last decade, with a particular focus on the EU. We present challenges for multi-(hazard-)risk management as outlined in several research projects and papers. We then present a research agenda for addressing these challenges. We argue for an approach that addresses multi-(hazard-)risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards. In this approach, the starting point is a specific sustainability challenge, rather than an individual hazard or sector, and trade-offs and synergies are examined across sectors, regions, and hazards. We argue for in-depth case studies in which various approaches for multi-(hazard-)risk management are co-developed and tested in practice. Finally, we present a new pan-European research project in which our proposed research agenda will be implemented, with the goal of enabling stakeholders to develop forward-looking disaster risk management pathways that assess trade-offs and synergies of various strategies across sectors, hazards, and spatial scales.
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Ward, Philip J., James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, et al. "Invited perspectives: A research agenda towards disaster risk management pathways in multi-(hazard-)risk assessment." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 22, no. 4 (April 26, 2022): 1487–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract. Whilst the last decades have seen a clear shift in emphasis from managing natural hazards to managing risk, the majority of natural-hazard risk research still focuses on single hazards. Internationally, there are calls for more attention for multi-hazards and multi-risks. Within the European Union (EU), the concepts of multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment and management have taken centre stage in recent years. In this perspective paper, we outline several key developments in multi-(hazard-)risk research in the last decade, with a particular focus on the EU. We present challenges for multi-(hazard-)risk management as outlined in several research projects and papers. We then present a research agenda for addressing these challenges. We argue for an approach that addresses multi-(hazard-)risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards. In this approach, the starting point is a specific sustainability challenge, rather than an individual hazard or sector, and trade-offs and synergies are examined across sectors, regions, and hazards. We argue for in-depth case studies in which various approaches for multi-(hazard-)risk management are co-developed and tested in practice. Finally, we present a new pan-European research project in which our proposed research agenda will be implemented, with the goal of enabling stakeholders to develop forward-looking disaster risk management pathways that assess trade-offs and synergies of various strategies across sectors, hazards, and spatial scales.
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Dubina, Dan, and Florea Dinu. "Robustness Based Structural Design: An Integrated Approach for Multi-Hazard Risk Mitigation." Applied Mechanics and Materials 82 (July 2011): 770–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.82.770.
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Multi-story building structures can suffer local damage or even structural collapse in case of extreme natural or man-made hazards. While all buildings are at a certain risk, some attributes can reduce the risk by reducing the vulnerability. One such attribute is the use of structural systems which can ensure that, in case of abnormal loads or failure of some elements, the collapse is prevented and the risk to occupants is reduced. Mitigation of some specific hazard can also help to reduce the risk, eg. protective barriers against impact or stand-off distance against direct effects of blast. Past experience has shown that structures that are designed according to seismic design philosophy can survive to a multiplicity of hazards. The objective of the paper is the adaptation of seismic design methodology to robust design demands of multistory frame buildings prone to multi-hazard scenarios. The hazard is modeled by removal of critical members. Nonlinear dynamic analyses are carried out in order to evaluate their robustness.
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Lee, Jennifer E. C., Louise Lemyre, and Daniel Krewski. "A Multi-Method, Multi-Hazard Approach to Explore the Uniqueness of Terrorism Risk Perceptions and Worry." Journal of Applied Social Psychology 40, no. 1 (January 2010): 241–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1559-1816.2009.00572.x.
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Do, Cameron, and Yuriy Kuleshov. "Multi-Hazard Tropical Cyclone Risk Assessment for Australia." Remote Sensing 15, no. 3 (January 31, 2023): 795. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs15030795.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Tropical cyclones (TCs) have long posed a significant threat to Australia’s population, infrastructure, and environment. This threat may grow under climate change as projections indicate continuing rises in sea level and increases in rainfall during TC events. Previous Australian TC risk assessment efforts have focused on the risk from wind, whereas a holistic approach requires multi-hazard risk assessments that also consider impacts of other TC-related hazards. This study assessed and mapped TC risk nationwide, focusing on the impacts on population and infrastructure from the TC-related hazards of wind, storm surges, flooding, and landslides. Risk maps were created at the Local Government Area (LGA) level for all of Australia, using collated data on multiple hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. The results demonstrated that the risk posed by all hazards was highest for coastal LGAs of eastern Queensland and New South Wales, followed by medium risk across Northern Territory and north-western Western Australia. Further enhancement and validation of risk maps developed in this study will provide decision makers with the information needed to reduce TC risk, save lives, and prevent damage to infrastructure.
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Shafiei Shiva, Javad, David G. Chandler, and Kenneth E. Kunkel. "Mapping Heat Wave Hazard in Urban Areas: A Novel Multi-Criteria Decision Making Approach." Atmosphere 13, no. 7 (June 29, 2022): 1037. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos13071037.
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Global population is experiencing more frequent, longer, and more severe heat waves due to global warming and urbanization. Episodic heat waves increase mortality and morbidity rates and demands for water and energy. Urban managers typically assess heat wave risk based on heat wave hazard, population exposure, and vulnerability, with a general assumption of spatial uniformity of heat wave hazard. We present a novel analysis that demonstrates an approach to determine the spatial distribution of a set of heat wave properties and hazard. The analysis is based on the Livneh dataset at a 1/16-degree resolution from 1950 to 2009 in Maricopa County, Arizona, USA. We then focused on neighborhoods with the most frequent, severe, earlier, and extended periods of heat wave occurrences. On average, the first heat wave occurs 40 days earlier in the eastern part of the county; the northeast part of this region experiences 12 days further extreme hot days and 30 days longer heat wave season than other regions of the area. Then, we applied a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) tool (TOPSIS) to evaluate the total hazard posed by heat wave components. We found that the northern and central parts of the metropolitan area are subject to the greatest heat wave hazard and that individual heat wave hazard components did not necessarily indicate heat hazard. This approach is intended to support local government planning for heat wave adaptation and mitigation strategies, where cooling centers, heat emergency water distribution networks, and electrical energy delivery can be targeted based on current and projected local heat wave characteristics.
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Kwag, Shinyoung, Jeong Gon Ha, Min Kyu Kim, and Jung Han Kim. "Development of Efficient External Multi-Hazard Risk Quantification Methodology for Nuclear Facilities." Energies 12, no. 20 (October 16, 2019): 3925. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en12203925.
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Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear facilities on external multi-hazards has become a major issue after the Fukushima accident in 2011. However, the existing external hazard PSA methodology is for single hazard events and cannot cover the impact of multi-hazards. Therefore, this study proposes a methodology for quantifying multi-hazard risks for nuclear energy plants. Specifically, we developed an efficient multi-hazard PSA methodology based on the probability distribution-based Boolean algebraic approach and sampling-based method, which are currently single-hazard PSA methodologies. The limitations of the probability distribution-based Boolean algebraic approach not being able to handle partial dependencies between the components are solved through this sampling-based method. In addition, we devised an algorithm that was more efficient than the existing algorithm for improving the limits of the current sampling-based method, as it required a significant computational time. The proposed methodology was applied from simple examples to single- and multi-hazard PSA examples of actual nuclear power plants. The results showed that the proposed methodology was verified in terms of accuracy and efficiency perspectives. Regarding the sampling-based method, it was confirmed that the proposed algorithm yielded fragility and risk results that have similar degrees of accuracy, even though it extracted a smaller number of samples than the existing algorithm.
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Taramelli, A., L. Melelli, M. Pasqui, and A. Sorichetta. "Estimating hurricane hazards using a GIS system." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 8, no. 4 (August 11, 2008): 839–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-8-839-2008.
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Abstract. This paper develops a GIS-based integrated approach to the Multi-Hazard model method, with reference to hurricanes. This approach has three components: data integration, hazard assessment and score calculation to estimate elements at risk such as affected area and affected population. First, spatial data integration issues within a GIS environment, such as geographical scales and data models, are addressed. Particularly, the integration of physical parameters and population data is achieved linking remotely sensed data with a high resolution population distribution in GIS. In order to assess the number of affected people, involving heterogeneous data sources, the selection of spatial analysis units is basic. Second, specific multi-hazard tasks, such as hazard behaviour simulation and elements at risk assessment, are composed in order to understand complex hazard and provide support for decision making. Finally, the paper concludes that the integrated approach herein presented can be used to assist emergency management of hurricane consequences, in theory and in practice.
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Rogers, David P., Linda Anderson-Berry, Anna-Maria Bogdanova, Gerald Fleming, Habiba Gitay, Suranga Kahandawa, Haleh Kootval, et al. "COVID-19 and lessons from multi-hazard early warning systems." Advances in Science and Research 17 (July 13, 2020): 129–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-129-2020.
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Abstract. Having a common framework for early action to cope with complex disasters can make it easier for authorities and other stakeholders, including populations at risk, to understand the full spectrum of secondary and tertiary effects and thus where to focus preparedness efforts, and how best to provide more targeted warnings and response services. Meteorological and hydrological services world-wide have developed and implemented Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWS) for weather and climate related hazards that are now being expanded and transitioned towards Multi-Hazard Impact-based Early Warning Systems (MHIEWS). While it is still early days it is becoming clear that there are useful lessons from this approach in the COVID-19 global pandemic, and some valuable insight to be gained in risk communication, risk analysis and monitoring methodologies and approaches. The ability to understand and respond effectively to warnings through appropriate behaviours and actions is central to resilient societies and communities. By avoiding physical, societal and economic harm to the greatest extent possible, recovery from a hazard is likely to be faster, less costly and more complete. MHIEWS can be a common approach for all hazards and therefore more likely to become a trusted tool that everyone can understand and use as a basic element of their national disaster risk management system. The interconnectedness of hazards and their impacts is a strong motivator for a common approach. One of the lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic and extreme weather events is the need to understand the vulnerability of individuals, communities and societies so as to provide reliable, targeted guidance and warnings and the willingness and capacity to prepare for a reasonable worst-case scenario based on informed long-term planning. Meteorology and hydrology are making good progress in this direction and the process can be readily applied to health and other sectors.
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Forte, Giovanni, Melania De Falco, Nicoletta Santangelo, and Antonio Santo. "Slope Stability in a Multi-Hazard Eruption Scenario (Santorini, Greece)." Geosciences 9, no. 10 (September 24, 2019): 412. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9100412.
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Under the European FP7 SNOWBALL project (2014–2017), the island of Santorini was used as a case study to validate a procedure to assess the possible multiple cascading effects caused by volcanic eruptions. From January 2011 to April 2012, the area was affected by low to moderate (Mw <3.2) seismic shaking, which caused concern regarding a possible volcanic eruption that ultimately failed to materialize. Assuming the worst-case scenario of a sub-Plinian eruption, this study provides insights into the approach adopted by the SNOWBALL project to identify the most critical areas (hot spots) for slope stability. Geological field surveys, thematic maps, and geomorphological data on aerial photos and landform interpretation were adopted to assess the static susceptibility. The eruption scenario is related to two different phenomena: a pre-eruption earthquake (Mw 5.2) and the subsequent ash fallout deposition following the prevailing winds. Landslide susceptibility in seismic conditions was assessed through the HAZUS approach and the estimate of Newmark displacements (u), while the critical areas for ash fallout mobilization were assessed adopting empirical relationships. The findings are summarized in a scenario map reporting the most critical areas and the infrastructures most vulnerable to such phenomena.
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Chen, Chao, Genserik Reniers, and Nima Khakzad. "A dynamic multi-agent approach for modeling the evolution of multi-hazard accident scenarios in chemical plants." Reliability Engineering & System Safety 207 (March 2021): 107349. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107349.
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Hayes, Josh L., Thomas M. Wilson, Natalia I. Deligne, Jan M. Lindsay, Graham S. Leonard, Sophia W. R. Tsang, and Rebecca H. Fitzgerald. "Developing a suite of multi-hazard volcanic eruption scenarios using an interdisciplinary approach." Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 392 (February 2020): 106763. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2019.106763.
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Pérez-Rey, Ignacio, A. Riquelme, L. M. González-deSantos, X. Estévez-Ventosa, R. Tomás, and L. R. Alejano. "A multi-approach rockfall hazard assessment on a weathered granite natural rock slope." Landslides 16, no. 10 (June 21, 2019): 2005–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10346-019-01208-5.
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Siddique, Muhammad Shahid, and Jochen Schwarz. "Elaboration of Multi-Hazard Zoning and Qualitative Risk Maps of Pakistan." Earthquake Spectra 31, no. 3 (August 2015): 1371–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/042913eqs114m.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Pakistan is situated in one of the highest seismic zones of the world, with the 1935 Quetta earthquake and the 2005 Kashmir earthquake as the most devastating earthquakes in the country. Pakistan has also recently suffered from severe flood events, in 2010 to 2012. Recent experiences in the above-mentioned events emphasize the need for a multi-hazard approach to assess the vulnerability of typical building types in Pakistan. The multi-hazard map is classified into four hazard-dominated areas: earthquake-, flood-, combined-, and no hazard–dominated areas in Pakistan. The distribution of the typical building types of Pakistan is globalized in terms of few, many, and most ranges to make a regional map of Pakistan. This map shows seven regions all over Pakistan, indicating the groups with certain predominant building types in each region. A multi-hazard risk map of Pakistan is the final outcome of the study.
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Buck, Kyle D., Kevin J. Summers, Stephen Hafner, Lisa M. Smith, and Linda C. Harwell. "Development of a Multi-Hazard Landscape for Exposure and Risk Interpretation: The PRISM Approach." Current Environmental Engineering 6, no. 1 (March 27, 2019): 74–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.2174/2212717806666190204103455.
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Background: Multi-hazard risk assessment has long been centered on small scale needs, whereby a single community or group of communities’ exposures are assessed to determine potential mitigation strategies. While this approach has advanced the understanding of hazard interactions, it is limiting on larger scales or when significantly different hazard types are present. In order to address some of these issues, an approach is developed where multiple hazards coalesce with losses into an index representing the risk landscape. Methods: Exposures are assessed as a proportion of land-area, allowing for multiple hazards to be combined in a single calculation. Risk calculations are weighted by land-use types (built, dual-benefit, natural) in each county. This allows for a more detailed analysis of land impacts and removes some of the bias introduced by monetary losses in heavily urbanized counties. Results: The results of the quantitative analysis show a landscape where the risk to natural systems is high and the western United States is exposed to a bulk of the risk. Land-use and temporal profiles exemplify a dynamic risk-scape. Conclusion: The calculation of risk is meant to inform community decisions based on the unique set of hazards in that area over time.
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Gallina, Valentina, Silvia Torresan, Alex Zabeo, Andrea Critto, Thomas Glade, and Antonio Marcomini. "A Multi-Risk Methodology for the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts in Coastal Zones." Sustainability 12, no. 9 (May 2, 2020): 3697. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12093697.
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Climate change threatens coastal areas, posing significant risks to natural and human systems, including coastal erosion and inundation. This paper presents a multi-risk approach integrating multiple climate-related hazards and exposure and vulnerability factors across different spatial units and temporal scales. The multi-hazard assessment employs an influence matrix to analyze the relationships among hazards (sea-level rise, coastal erosion, and storm surge) and their disjoint probability. The multi-vulnerability considers the susceptibility of the exposed receptors (wetlands, beaches, and urban areas) to different hazards based on multiple indicators (dunes, shoreline evolution, and urbanization rate). The methodology was applied in the North Adriatic coast, producing a ranking of multi-hazard risks by means of GIS maps and statistics. The results highlight that the higher multi-hazard score (meaning presence of all investigated hazards) is near the coastline while multi-vulnerability is relatively high in the whole case study, especially for beaches, wetlands, protected areas, and river mouths. The overall multi-risk score presents a trend similar to multi-hazard and shows that beaches is the receptor most affected by multiple risks (60% of surface in the higher multi-risk classes). Risk statistics were developed for coastal municipalities and local stakeholders to support the setting of adaptation priorities and coastal zone management plans.
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Piao, Yong, Dongkun Lee, Sangjin Park, Ho Gul Kim, and Yihua Jin. "Multi-hazard mapping of droughts and forest fires using a multi-layer hazards approach with machine learning algorithms." Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk 13, no. 1 (October 2, 2022): 2649–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2022.2128440.
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Hannum, RR Mashita Fauzia, I. Putu Santikayasa, and Bambang Dwi Dasanto. "Evaluation of Flood Hazard Potency in Jakarta based on Multi-criteria Analysis." Agromet 36, no. 2 (December 30, 2022): 101–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.29244/j.agromet.36.2.101-111.
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The frequency of flood events in Indonesia has increased since 1990, especially in the capital city of Jakarta. Flood events have affected socio-economic activities, and have threaten community health in flood prone areas. Although many efforts have been performed to reduced flood impacts, research on flood hazard remains a research challenge. This study aims to map level of flood hazard in Jakarta and to determine the most affected factors that cause flood. First, we defined factors that influence flood, and combined an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to determine their weighted values and GIS approach to determine their score values. The combination of weight and score value determined the flood hazard index (FHI). The sensitivity analysis and validation then were applied to determine the robustness of the approaches. Our results show that the most influenced factors determining flood hazard were rainfall intensity, land use, and slope, whereas geology is the less factor. Based on the sensitivity analysis and FHI validation, our approaches were able to represent 59% flood disaster in Jakarta. The pattern of FHI value was high in north areas and low in south areas. The findings indicated that north areas are more flood prone than south areas. Further, this research contributes to the improved approach of flood mitigation in Jakarta
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Docherty, Julia M., Feng Mao, Wouter Buytaert, Julian RA Clark, and David M. Hannah. "A framework for understanding water-related multi-hazards in a sustainable development context." Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment 44, no. 2 (January 30, 2020): 267–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0309133319900926.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Hazards often do not occur in isolation and, for this reason, a multi-hazard approach is vital in realising their impact and providing solutions for disaster risk reduction and sustainable development. We present a novel framework that emerges from a bibliometric analysis of the multi-hazard literature and a critical appraisal of the existing approaches. It was found that multi-hazard research has expanded greatly over the last 20 years, furthering our understanding of the subject with important applications in risk assessment and management. These studies have contextualised multi-hazards, developed models and frameworks to analyse them, provided case studies to test multi-hazard-based approaches and produced reviews. It was found that landslides and floods are the most frequently co-occurring hazards within the bibliographic dataset, yet understanding of their interactions, hydrometeorological drivers and landscape controls remains poorly conceptualised. Therefore, we propose a new framework for investigating water-related multi-hazards that leverages and synthesises existing methods to address the challenges identified to date. We also find a geographical bias, with less multi-hazard research in lower- and middle-income countries and remote environments due to data scarcity and limited accessibility. Our framework therefore includes the ability to address geographically specific key considerations including available and accessible data, community variability and cross-sectoral collaborations. In doing so it offers guidance on structuring future analyses to improve our understanding of multi-hazards, reduce disaster risk, increase community resilience and make progress towards sustainable development.
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Araya-Muñoz, Dahyann, Marc J. Metzger, Neil Stuart, A. Meriwether W. Wilson, and Danilo Carvajal. "A spatial fuzzy logic approach to urban multi-hazard impact assessment in Concepción, Chile." Science of The Total Environment 576 (January 2017): 508–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.077.
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van Verseveld, H. C. W., A. R. van Dongeren, N. G. Plant, W. S. Jäger, and C. den Heijer. "Modelling multi-hazard hurricane damages on an urbanized coast with a Bayesian Network approach." Coastal Engineering 103 (September 2015): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2015.05.006.
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Antonielli, Benedetta, Francesca Bozzano, Matteo Fiorucci, Salomon Hailemikael, Roberto Iannucci, Salvatore Martino, Stefano Rivellino, and Gabriele Scarascia Mugnozza. "Engineering-Geological Features Supporting a Seismic-Driven Multi-Hazard Scenario in the Lake Campotosto Area (L’Aquila, Italy)." Geosciences 11, no. 3 (February 27, 2021): 107. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geosciences11030107.
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This paper aims to describe the seismic-driven multi-hazard scenario of the Lake Campotosto artificial basin (Abruzzo Region, Central Italy), and it can represent a preparatory study for a quantitative multi-hazard analysis. A comprehensive multi-hazard scenario considers all the effects that can occur following the base ground shaking, providing a holistic approach to assessing the real hazard potential and helping to improve management of disaster mitigation. The study area might be affected by a complex earthquake-induced chain of geologic hazards, such as the seismic shaking, the surface faulting of the Gorzano Mt. Fault, which is very close to one of the three dams that form the Lake Campotosto, and by the earthquake-triggered landslides of different sizes and typologies. These hazards were individually and qualitatively analyzed, using data from an engineering-geological survey and a geomechanical classification of the rock mass. With regard to the seismic shaking, a quantitative evaluation of the seismic response of the Poggio Cancelli valley, in the northern part of Lake Campotosto, was performed, highlighting different seismic amplification phenomena due to morphologic and stratigraphic features. Some insights about the possible multi-hazard approaches are also discussed.
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Komendantova, Nadejda, Anna Scolobig, Alexander Garcia-Aristizabal, Daniel Monfort, and Kevin Fleming. "Multi-risk approach and urban resilience." International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment 7, no. 2 (April 11, 2016): 114–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijdrbe-03-2015-0013.
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Purpose Urban resilience is becoming increasingly important due to increasing degree of urbanization and a combination of several factors affecting urban vulnerability. Urban resilience is also understood as a capacity of a system to prepare, respond and recover from multi-hazard threats. The purpose of multi-risk approach (MRA) is to take into consideration interdependencies between multiple risks, which can trigger a chain of natural and manmade events with different spatial and temporal scales. The purpose of this study is to understand correlation between multi-risk approach and urban resilience. Design/methodology/approach To increase urban resilience, MRA should also include multi-risk governance, which is based on understanding how existing institutional and governance structures, individual judgments and communication of risk assessment results shape decision-making processes. Findings This paper is based on extensive fieldwork in the test studies of Naples, Italy and Guadeloupe, France, the historical case study analysis and the stakeholders’ interviews, workshops and focus groups discussions. Originality/value Multi-risk is a relatively new field in science, only partially developed in social and geosciences. The originality of this research is in establishment of a link between MRA, including both assessment and governance, and urban resilience. In this paper, the authors take a holistic and systemic look at the MRA, including all stages of knowledge generation and decision-making. Both, knowledge generation and decision-making are reinforced by behavioural biases, different perceptions and institutional factors. Further on, the authors develop recommendations on how an MRA can contribute to urban resilience.
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Mladineo, Nenad, Marko Mladineo, Elena Benvenuti, Toni Kekez, and Željana Nikolić. "Methodology for the Assessment of Multi-Hazard Risk in Urban Homogenous Zones." Applied Sciences 12, no. 24 (December 14, 2022): 12843. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app122412843.
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The multi-hazard risk assessment of urban areas represents a comprehensive approach that can be used to reduce, manage and overcome the risks arising from the combination of different natural hazards. This paper presents a methodology for multi-hazard risk assessment based on Spatial Multi-Criteria Decision Making. The PROMETHEE method was used to assess multi-hazard risks caused by seismic, flood and extreme sea waves impact. The methodology is applied for multi-hazard risk evaluation of the urban area of Kaštel Kambelovac, located on the Croatian coast of the Adriatic Sea. The settlement is placed in a zone of high seismic risk with a large number of old stone historical buildings which are vulnerable to the earthquakes. Being located along the low-lying coast, this area is also threatened by floods due to climate change-induced sea level rises. Furthermore, the settlement is exposed to flooding caused by extreme sea waves generated by severe wind. In the present contribution, the multi-hazard risk is assessed for different scenarios and different levels, based on exposure and vulnerability for each of the natural hazards and the influence of additional criteria to the overall risk in homogenous zones. Single-risk analysis has shown that the seismic risk is dominant for the whole pilot area. The results of multi-hazard assessment have shown that in all combinations the highest risk is present in the historical part of Kaštel Kambelovac. This is because the historical part is most exposed to sea floods and extreme waves, as well as due to the fact that a significant number of historical buildings is located in this area.
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Raynor, Steve, and Megan Boston. "Multi-hazard analysis and mapping of coastal Tauranga in support of resilience planning." Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering 54, no. 2 (June 1, 2021): 176–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.54.2.176-183.
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High growth is increasingly forcing development of hazard prone land in the coastal city of Tauranga. A multi-hazard mapping tool developed to guide strategic growth planning in this natural hazard rich environment gives direct comparison of total hazard levels across the city. By aggregating individual hazards into a summative multi-hazard rating for each part of the city, urban planners and engineers have a decision support tool to aid city planning over the next 100 years.
Tauranga growth requires 40,000 new homes over the next four decades in addition to the existing 57,000 homes. This 70% growth must squeeze within tight geographic constraints as Tauranga's 137,000 residents nestle around a harbour and are bound by open coast to the north and steep terrain to the south.
This research quantifies Tauranga’s natural hazards of sea level rise, storm surge, coastal erosion, tsunami, earthquake shaking, liquefaction, landslides volcanic ashfall and flooding. Each hazard is spatially represented through hazard maps. Individual hazards are combined into a multi-hazard model to represent the aggregated hazard exposure of each point of the city. The multi-hazard exposure is spatially mapped using GIS allowing an area with tsunami, liquefaction and storm surge as dominant hazards to be directly compared with an area of different hazards such as flooding and landslides. Mapping of these hazards provides strategic input for building city resilience through land use planning and mitigation design. A pilot study area of 25 km2 selected from the Tauranga City Council total area of 135 km2 demonstrates the accumulated mapping approach. The pilot area contains a thorough representation of geology, elevation, landform and hazards that occur throughout the city.
Our findings showed the highest aggregated hazard areas in Tauranga are along the coast. As is common with many beach resort towns this corresponds with the most popular living areas. The lower hazard areas suitable for urban growth are distributed mostly away from the open coast in the slightly elevated topography.
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Aras, Egemen M., and Mihai A. Diaconeasa. "A Critical Look at the Need for Performing Multi-Hazard Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Nuclear Power Plants." Eng 2, no. 4 (October 10, 2021): 454–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/eng2040028.
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Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is one of the technologies that is used to inform the design, licensing, operation, and maintenance activities of nuclear power plants (NPPs). A PRA can be performed by considering the single hazard (e.g., earthquake, flood, high wind, landslide) or by considering multi-hazards (e.g., earthquake and tsunami, high wind and internal fire). Single hazard PRA was thought sufficient to cover the analysis of a severe accident until the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident in 2011. Since then, efforts were made to consider multi-hazards as well; thus, multi-hazard PRAs are starting to be seen as being indispensable for NPPs. In addition to the changing frequency of global and local natural hazards, other reasons to be highlighted are that the number and diversity of NPPs will probably increase. Moreover, advanced reactors are close to becoming a reality by designing them with passive safety systems, smaller, standardized, and even transportable to make them cheaper across the design, licensing construction, and operation stages. Thus, multi-hazards should be addressed in any future full-scope PRA. Although we found a few studies discussing multi-hazards, a general framework for multi-hazard PRA is still missing. In this paper, we argue that the starting point for any multi-hazard PRA general framework should be the Advanced Non-LWR Licensing Basis Event Selection (LBE) Approach and Probabilistic Risk Assessment Standard for Non-Light Water Reactor (non-LWR) Nuclear Power Plants. For Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), history has shown us the path forward before, with Three Mile Accident being seen as one milestone to understand the necessity of PRA. The Fukushima Daiichi NPP Accident is another milestone in the development of PRA, showing the need for performing multi-hazard PRA for the current and future NPPs.
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Divi, Sriram, N. Dorasamy, and Vipul Nakum. "Disaster Management in India: Need for an Integrated Approach." Disaster Advances 15, no. 8 (July 25, 2022): 60–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.25303/1508da060068.
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It is now widely known that the hazards can be natural, but most disasters are ‘human-made’. The failure to properly implement developmental policies and practices with due consideration to disaster risk management is the leading cause of turning a hazard into a disaster.25 This, in return, negatively affects sustainable development which ultimately affects the weakest and the poorest sections of society. Disaster impacts have been felt on a wide range of sectors and sections of the population. They are curbing progress made toward achieving the Sendai Framework targets, and SDGs. Climate and human-induced disaster events have exposed several underlying facets of risks' systemic and cascading nature. There is an urgent need to identify, analyse and better understand the multi-hazard, systemic and cascading nature of the disaster and climate risks, their inter-linkages, and interplay. A holistic understanding of risk is crucial for furthering the priorities of action laid under the Sendai Framework and the envisioned SDGs and ensuring a better, greener, resilient and sustainable society. We have tried to study the disaster management frameworks, plans and policies of 10 countries including India to understand the institutional mechanisms and integration of critical aspects of dual/multi disaster scenarios. When the traditional disasters hit the community following the COVID-19 pandemic, the need arises to have an integrated model that can assisting in the preparation and response to the dual situation simultaneously. Efforts are made to put the experiences into a framework for an integrated approach preparing for dual/multi-disaster scenarios.
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Hariri-Ardebili, Mohammad Amin, Siamak Sattar, Katherine Johnson, Christopher Clavin, Juan Fung, and Luis Ceferino. "A Perspective towards Multi-Hazard Resilient Systems: Natural Hazards and Pandemics." Sustainability 14, no. 8 (April 10, 2022): 4508. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14084508.
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The concept of resilience has been used extensively across the sciences in engineering and the humanities. It is applied to ecology, medicine, economics, and psychology. The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has posed an extraordinary challenge to the resilience of healthcare systems, communities, and nations and has profoundly altered our previous day-to-day operations. This paper presents a discussion of the definitions and characteristics of resilient systems. Scenarios are utilized to qualitatively explore key relationships, responses, and paths for recovery across different system types. The purpose is to develop an integrated approach that can accommodate simultaneous threats to system resilience, in particular, impacts from a natural hazard in conjunction with COVID-19. This manuscript is the first to advocate for more in-depth and quantitative research utilizing transdisciplinary approaches that can accommodate considerations across our built environment and healthcare system infrastructures in pursuit of designing systems that are resilient to both natural hazards and pandemic impacts.
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Sharma, A., and H. Miyazaki. "MULTI-HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT IN URBAN PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT USING AHP." ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences XLII-3/W8 (August 22, 2019): 363–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-xlii-3-w8-363-2019.
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<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Many cities across the world are exposed to more than one hazards. Focus on only the most prominent natural hazards, or the most recent event can be dangerous, as many potential threats to urban development are not assessed. Even when multiple hazards in a given area is assessed, there is a lot of confusion on how to utilize hazard information in making decisions for urban land-use planning. This study is aimed to develop a method to utilize hazard maps in urban land-use decision making. The study has identified numerous applications of GIS-based multi-criteria decision model (MCDM) for land-use suitability evaluation. It has then tried to integrate multiple hazard maps, a product of multi-hazard risk assessment, into the model to generate suitability maps for further development. The used parameters were correlated using the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP), one of the MCDM tool and incorporated into the GIS environment, with a comparison between the cases with- and without-hazard considerations. The application of the proposed method was tested for Madang Province, Papua New Guinea for four land-uses, i.e., residential, industrial, commercial, and agricultural. The results of the model i.e., land-use suitability maps were spatially reflective of the model user’s decisions and understanding. This model gave considerable results for the urban development plan. Furthermore, comparison of the model outputs with and without hazard considerations led to notable differences. For example, almost 1% of the study area was rendered unsuitable for residential development in the assessment without hazard consideration. Besides, approximately 14% of the study area were assessed as suitable for without-hazard consideration but less suitable for with-hazard consideration. Since the hazard maps represented patterns and locations of natural hazards, our approach of incorporating them could help highlight the gaps in risk recognition with future development in hazardous areas.</p>
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Parsian, Saeid, Meisam Amani, Armin Moghimi, Arsalan Ghorbanian, and Sahel Mahdavi. "Flood Hazard Mapping Using Fuzzy Logic, Analytical Hierarchy Process, and Multi-Source Geospatial Datasets." Remote Sensing 13, no. 23 (November 24, 2021): 4761. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs13234761.
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Iran is among the driest countries in the world, where many natural hazards, such as floods, frequently occur. This study introduces a straightforward flood hazard assessment approach using remote sensing datasets and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) environment in an area located in the western part of Iran. Multiple GIS and remote sensing datasets, including Digital Elevation Model (DEM), slope, rainfall, distance from the main rivers, Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) maps, soil type map, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and erosion rate were initially produced. Then, all datasets were converted into fuzzy values using a linear fuzzy membership function. Subsequently, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique was applied to determine the weight of each dataset, and the relevant weight values were then multiplied to fuzzy values. Finally, all the processed parameters were integrated using a fuzzy analysis to produce the flood hazard map with five classes of susceptible zones. The bi-temporal Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images, acquired before and on the day of the flood event, were used to evaluate the accuracy of the produced flood hazard map. The results indicated that 95.16% of the actual flooded areas were classified as very high and high flood hazard classes, demonstrating the high potential of this approach for flood hazard mapping.
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Oberndorfer, Stefan, Philip Sander, and Sven Fuchs. "Multi-hazard risk assessment for roads: probabilistic versus deterministic approaches." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 20, no. 11 (November 27, 2020): 3135–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3135-2020.
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Abstract. Mountain hazard risk analysis for transport infrastructure is regularly based on deterministic approaches. Standard risk assessment approaches for roads need a variety of variables and data for risk computation, however without considering potential uncertainty in the input data. Consequently, input data needed for risk assessment are normally processed as discrete mean values without scatter or as an individual deterministic value from expert judgement if no statistical data are available. To overcome this gap, we used a probabilistic approach to analyse the effect of input data uncertainty on the results, taking a mountain road in the Eastern European Alps as a case study. The uncertainty of the input data are expressed with potential bandwidths using two different distribution functions. The risk assessment included risk for persons, property risk and risk for non-operational availability exposed to a multi-hazard environment (torrent processes, snow avalanches and rockfall). The study focuses on the epistemic uncertainty of the risk terms (exposure situations, vulnerability factors and monetary values), ignoring potential sources of variation in the hazard analysis. As a result, reliable quantiles of the calculated probability density distributions attributed to the aggregated road risk due to the impact of multiple mountain hazards were compared to the deterministic outcome from the standard guidelines on road safety. The results based on our case study demonstrate that with common deterministic approaches risk might be underestimated in comparison to a probabilistic risk modelling setup, mainly due to epistemic uncertainties of the input data. The study provides added value to further develop standardized road safety guidelines and may therefore be of particular importance for road authorities and political decision-makers.
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Salazar A, D. E., C. M. Rocco S, and E. Zio. "Optimal protection of complex networks exposed to a terrorist hazard: A multi-objective evolutionary approach." Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability 222, no. 3 (September 2008): 327–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1243/1748006xjrr133.
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Ashraful Islam, Md, Debashis Mitra, Ashraf Dewan, and Syed Humayun Akhter. "Coastal multi-hazard vulnerability assessment along the Ganges deltaic coast of Bangladesh–A geospatial approach." Ocean & Coastal Management 127 (July 2016): 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2016.03.012.
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Subedi, Buddha, Binu Devkota, and Bishal Shrestha. "Flood Hazard Mapping Using a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Approach Over the Indrawati River Basin." Jalawaayu 3, no. 1 (February 14, 2023): 25–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/jalawaayu.v3i1.52058.
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Floods are devastating natural hazard responsible for direct mortality, deterioration of crops, and damage to infrastructure and property. So, their study is crucial for watershed management and mitigation of flood hazards. The main objective of this study was to create a scientifically valid flood hazard map of the Indrawati River Basin (IRB) through the use of the multi-criteria decision analysis approach. Topographical Wetness Index (TWI), Elevation (EL), Slope (SL), Precipitation (PPT), Land Use/Land Cover (LULC), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Distance from the River (DRI), Distance from the Road (DRO), Drainage Density (DD), and Soil Type (ST) were chosen as flood triggering factors based on literature review, data availability, and catchment characteristics. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method was used for determining the relative weight of each flood causative factor. All these factors were resampled into a 30 m × 30 m pixel size. Based on an evaluation of satellite imagery, 30 flood points were identified in the IRB, and these points were used as the testing dataset for validating the outcome. Based on results, the IRB has been classified into five different flood susceptible zones; very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. According to the study, 13%, 26%, 30%, 23%, and 8% of the total area are in very low, low, moderate, high, and very high flood susceptible zones, respectively. The Area Under the Curve (AUC) value for the success rate was 0.792. The results of this study will be crucial for concerned parties to design early warning systems and flood risk reduction measures for flood preparedness.
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Choi, Eujeong, Shinyoung Kwag, Jeong-Gon Ha, and Daegi Hahm. "Development of a Two-Stage DQFM to Improve Efficiency of Single- and Multi-Hazard Risk Quantification for Nuclear Facilities." Energies 14, no. 4 (February 15, 2021): 1017. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14041017.
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The probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a nuclear power plant (NPP) under single and multiple hazards is one of the most important tasks for disaster risk management of nuclear facilities. To date, various approaches—including the direct quantification of the fault tree using the Monte Carlo simulation (DQFM) method—have been employed to quantify single- and multi-hazard risks to nuclear facilities. The major advantage of the DQFM method is its applicability to a partially correlated system. Other methods can represent only an independent or a fully correlated system, but DQFM can quantify the risk of partially correlated system components by the sampling process. However, as a sampling-based approach, DQFM involves computational costs which increase as the size of the system and the number of hazards increase. Therefore, to improve the computational efficiency of the conventional DQFM, a two-stage DQFM method is proposed in this paper. By assigning enough samples to each hazard point according to its contribution to the final risk, the proposed two-stage DQFM can effectively reduce computational costs for both single- and multi-hazard risk quantification. Using examples of single- and multi-hazard threats to nuclear facilities, the effectiveness of the proposed two-stage DQFM is successfully demonstrated. Especially, two-stage DQFM saves computation time of conventional DQFM up to 72% for multi-hazard example.
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Chiodi, Remo, Domenico Asprone, Filippo Maimone, Andrea Prota, and Francesco Ricciardelli. "Multi-Hazard Assessment of Steel Hangar Structures Subjected to Seismic and Wind Loads." Applied Mechanics and Materials 82 (July 2011): 778–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.82.778.
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The Italian wind climate is characterized by rather low annual average wind velocity, and moderately high extremes; on the other hand, Italy is one of the most seismic countries in the Mediterranean area, both in terms of frequency and intensity of earthquake occurrences . These events have to be examined to define a reliable prediction of extreme loads, and a probabilistic multi-hazard approach can be employed to investigate the performance of a structure under critical events and to ensure its acceptable performance during its entire lifetime. This paper examines the case of steel airport hangars located in areas with low seismicity, where the contribution of the wind risk can represent the most important hazard. In this framework the wind vulnerability has to be characterized with a probabilistic approach and all possible failure mechanism induced by wind loads have to be analyzed. The main objective of this paper is to provide a tool for assessment and retrofit of existing structures, as well as for the design of new structures.
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Ji, Feng Quan, and Jin Long Chu. "The Multi-Objective Approach Toward Landscape Conservation Planning of City River." Applied Mechanics and Materials 71-78 (July 2011): 4572–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.71-78.4572.
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In the course of city operation and development, the normal state of the river environment encounters hazard of varying degrees, which is manifested in the ecological degradation, functional disorder, and cultural deficiencies. The author elaborated the synergestic effect of Multi-objective Approach (MOA) in the overll improvement of the urban water systems in terms of the ecological restoration, mutiple functions and cultural effecacy. Based on the study of the landscape planning of the open space of the Guohe River in Bozhou City, which made the comprehensive analysis from an ecological, functional, and cultural perspectives and employed the multi-objective landscape remediation and conservation design, we explore the landscape planning methods of the urban waterfront which incorporate the ecology, function and culture of the region to be designed.
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Bang, Henry Ngenyam. "A Concise Appraisal of Cameroon’s Hazard Risk Profile: Multi-Hazard Inventories, Causes, Consequences and Implications for Disaster Management." GeoHazards 3, no. 1 (February 11, 2022): 55–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geohazards3010004.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The paucity of a comprehensive document on Cameroon’s hazard/disaster risk profile is a limitation to the country wide risk assessment and adequate disaster resilience. This article narrows this gap by retrospectively exploring Cameroon’s hazard/disaster profile. This has been achieved through an investigative approach that applies a set of qualitative methods to derive and articulate an inventory and analysis of hazards/disasters in Cameroon. The findings indicate that Cameroon has a wide array and high incidence/frequency of hazards that have had devastating consequences. The hazards have been structured along four profiles: a classification of all hazard types plaguing Cameroon into natural, potentially socio-natural, technological, and social and anthropogenic hazards; occurrence/origin of the hazards; their impacts/effects to the ‘at risk’ communities/populace and potential disaster management or mitigation measures. In-depth analysis indicate that natural hazards have the lowest frequency but the potential to cause the highest fatalities in a single incident; potentially socio-natural hazards affect the largest number of people and the widest geographical areas, technological hazards have the highest frequency of occurrence; while social/anthropogenic hazards are the newest in the country but have caused the highest population displacement. Arguably, the multi-hazard/disaster inventory presented in this article serves as a vital preliminary step to a more comprehensive profile of Cameroon’s disaster risk profile.
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Ngo, Duc-Vu, Young-Jin Kim, and Dong-Hyawn Kim. "Risk Assessment of Offshore Wind Turbines Suction Bucket Foundation Subject to Multi-Hazard Events." Energies 16, no. 5 (February 24, 2023): 2184. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en16052184.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
For the offshore wind turbines (OWTs) located in a seismically active region, the occurrence of earthquakes combined with scour is a highly possible multi-hazard event. This study developed an alternative fragility analysis framework to assess the seismic performance of suction bucket-supported OWTs under the action of scour. First, the probabilistic approach was applied to calculate the occurrence probability of scour depth (SD) and earthquake events. Then, the possible combinations of these two events were considered in the analysis model to establish the fragility surface of the suction bucket foundation. Finally, by integrating the product of scour and earthquake hazard, as well as fragility curves, the suction bucket foundation failure probability was obtained. The developed framework provides a reliable approach to risk assessment for OWT-supporting structures in extreme event situations and can be applied to other complex natural hazards.