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Автор: Grafiati
Опубліковано: 14 березня 2023

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Статті в журналах з теми "Multi-hazard approach"

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Rabinowitz, Nitzan, and David M. Steinberg. "Seismic hazard sensitivity analysis: A multi-parameter approach." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 81, no. 3 (June 1, 1991): 796–817. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/bssa0810030796.

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Abstract We propose a novel multi-parameter approach for conducting seismic hazard sensitivity analysis. This approach allows one to assess the importance of each input parameter at a variety of settings of the other input parameters and thus provides a much richer picture than standard analyses, which assess each input parameter only at the default settings of the other parameters. We illustrate our method with a sensitivity analysis of seismic hazard for Jerusalem. In this example, we find several input parameters whose importance depends critically on the settings of other input parameters. This phenomenon, which cannot be detected by a standard sensitivity analysis, is easily diagnosed by our method. The multi-parameter approach can also be used in the context of a probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard that incorporates subjective probability distributions for the input parameters.
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2

Lee, Young Kyu. "Risk Analysis for Reservoir Collapse by a Multi-hazard Approach." Crisis and Emergency Management: Theory and Praxis 14, no. 11 (November 30, 2018): 123–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.14251/crisisonomy.2018.14.11.123.

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3

Keen, Adam S., and Patrick J. Lynett. "A DESIGN LIFE BASED APPROACH TO MULTI-HAZARD RISK ANALYSIS." Coastal Engineering Proceedings, no. 36 (December 30, 2018): 81. http://dx.doi.org/10.9753/icce.v36.risk.81.

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Small craft harbors are important facets to many coastal communities providing a transition from land to ocean. Because of the damage resulting from the 2010 Chile and 2011 Japanese tele-tsunamis, the tsunami risk to the small craft harbors in California has become an important concern. However, tsunamis represent only one of many hazards a harbor is likely to see in California. Other natural hazards including wave attack, wind events, storm surge and sea level rise all can damage a harbor but are not typically addressed collectively in traditional risk studies. Existing approaches to assess small craft harbor vulnerably typically look at single events assigning likely damage levels to each event. However, a harbor will likely experience damage from several different types of hazards over its service life with each event contributing proportionally to the total damage state. The approach presented here will consider the how the damage from many different natural phenomena is likely to be distributed during a harbors service life and how the cumulative effect of the events could contribute to failure potential of components within the harbor.
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4

Selmi, Mbarka, Yasser Hamdi, and Denis Moiriat. "Multi-Hazard Assessment of a Flood Protection Levee." Atmosphere 13, no. 10 (October 21, 2022): 1741. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos13101741.

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Earthquake-induced liquefaction is one of the main causes of levee breaches that can threaten human life and property. Conventionally, liquefaction hazard has been assessed in terms of the factor of safety FoS against liquefaction which ignores the potential variability of groundwater table (GWT) due to precipitation events. A probabilistic methodology, taking into account these GWT variations over time, is therefore presented in this study to assess the liquefaction hazard of an earthen flood protection levee. A frequency analysis based on the Annual Maxima/Generalised Extreme Value (AM/GEV) approach is first used to characterize the distribution of GWT extreme values. The CPT-based method is then applied with the provided GWT scenarios to predict liquefaction and display the hazard curves. Assuming a single constant GWT estimate during an earthquake revealed a certain liquefaction hazard within a sandy layer. Considering GWT variations during earthquakes showed, however, that liquefaction is unlikely to occur with an FoS threshold set at 1.0. These findings highlight: (1) the conservatism of the conventional approach that overestimates the liquefaction hazard, (2) the importance of the proposed probabilistic approach as a complementary tool for more reliable decision-making, and (3) the dependency of liquefaction hazard predictions on the degree of uncertainty in GWT estimates and FoS threshold.
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Gill, Joel C., and Bruce D. Malamud. "Hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) within multi-hazard methodologies." Earth System Dynamics 7, no. 3 (August 23, 2016): 659–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-659-2016.

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Abstract. This paper combines research and commentary to reinforce the importance of integrating hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) into multi-hazard methodologies. We present a synthesis of the differences between multi-layer single-hazard approaches and multi-hazard approaches that integrate such interactions. This synthesis suggests that ignoring interactions between important environmental and anthropogenic processes could distort management priorities, increase vulnerability to other spatially relevant hazards or underestimate disaster risk. In this paper we proceed to present an enhanced multi-hazard framework through the following steps: (i) description and definition of three groups (natural hazards, anthropogenic processes and technological hazards/disasters) as relevant components of a multi-hazard environment, (ii) outlining of three types of interaction relationship (triggering, increased probability, and catalysis/impedance), and (iii) assessment of the importance of networks of interactions (cascades) through case study examples (based on the literature, field observations and semi-structured interviews). We further propose two visualisation frameworks to represent these networks of interactions: hazard interaction matrices and hazard/process flow diagrams. Our approach reinforces the importance of integrating interactions between different aspects of the Earth system, together with human activity, into enhanced multi-hazard methodologies. Multi-hazard approaches support the holistic assessment of hazard potential and consequently disaster risk. We conclude by describing three ways by which understanding networks of interactions contributes to the theoretical and practical understanding of hazards, disaster risk reduction and Earth system management. Understanding interactions and interaction networks helps us to better (i) model the observed reality of disaster events, (ii) constrain potential changes in physical and social vulnerability between successive hazards, and (iii) prioritise resource allocation for mitigation and disaster risk reduction.
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Pham, Hoa, and Huong T. T. Pham. "A Bayesian approach for multi-stage models with linear time-dependent hazard rate." Monte Carlo Methods and Applications 25, no. 4 (December 1, 2019): 307–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/mcma-2019-2051.

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Abstract Multi-stage models have been used to describe progression of individuals which develop through a sequence of discrete stages. We focus on the multi-stage model in which the number of individuals in each stage is assessed through destructive samples for a sequence of sampling time. Moreover, the stage duration distributions of the model are effected by a time-dependent hazard rate. The multi-stage models become complex with a stage having time-dependent hazard rate. The main aim of this paper is to derive analytically the approximation of the likelihood of the model. We apply the approximation to the Metropolis–Hastings (MH) algorithm to estimate parameters for the model. The method is demonstrated by applying to simulated data which combine non-hazard rate, stage-wise constant hazard rate and time-dependent hazard rates in stage duration distributions.
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7

GUO, X., G. D. H. CLAASSEN, A. G. J. M. OUDE LANSINK, and H. W. SAATKAMP. "A conceptual framework for economic optimization of an animal health surveillance portfolio." Epidemiology and Infection 144, no. 5 (September 29, 2015): 1084–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0950268815002022.

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SUMMARYDecision making on hazard surveillance in livestock product chains is a multi-hazard, multi-stakeholder, and multi-criteria process that includes a variety of decision alternatives. The multi-hazard aspect means that the allocation of the scarce resource for surveillance should be optimized from the point of view of a surveillance portfolio (SP) rather than a single hazard. In this paper, we present a novel conceptual approach for economic optimization of a SP to address the resource allocation problem for a surveillance organization from a theoretical perspective. This approach uses multi-criteria techniques to evaluate the performances of different settings of a SP, taking cost-benefit aspects of surveillance and stakeholders’ preferences into account. The credibility of the approach has also been checked for conceptual validity, data needs and operational validity; the application potentials of the approach are also discussed.
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Nath, S. K., and K. K. S. Thingbaijam. "Seismic hazard assessment – a holistic microzonation approach." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 9, no. 4 (August 14, 2009): 1445–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-1445-2009.

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Abstract. The probable mitigation and management issues of seismic hazard necessitate seismic microzonation for hazard and risk assessment at the local level. Such studies are preceded with those at a regional level. A comprehensive framework, therefore, encompasses several phases from information compilations and data recording to analyses and interpretations. The state-of-the-art methodologies involve multi-disciplinary approaches namely geological, seismological, and geotechnical methods delivering multiple perspectives on the prevailing hazard in terms of geology and geomorphology, strong ground motion, site amplification, site classifications, soil liquefaction potential, landslide susceptibility, and predominant frequency. The composite hazard is assessed accounting for all the potential hazard attributing features with relative rankings in a logic tree, fuzzy set or hierarchical concept.
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Soldati, Arianna, Andrea Chiozzi, Željana Nikolić, Carmela Vaccaro, and Elena Benvenuti. "A PROMETHEE Multiple-Criteria Approach to Combined Seismic and Flood Risk Assessment at the Regional Scale." Applied Sciences 12, no. 3 (January 31, 2022): 1527. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app12031527.

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Social vulnerability is deeply affected by the increase in hazardous events such as earthquakes and floods. Such hazards have the potential to greatly affect communities, including in developed countries. Governments and stakeholders must adopt suitable risk reduction strategies. This study is aimed at proposing a qualitative multi-hazard risk analysis methodology in the case of combined seismic and flood risk using PROMETHEE, a Multiple-Criteria Decision Analysis technique. The present case study is a multi-hazard risk assessment of the Ferrara province (Italy). The proposed approach is an original and flexible methodology to qualitatively prioritize urban centers affected by multi-hazard risks at the regional scale. It delivers a useful tool to stakeholders involved in the processes of hazard management and disaster mitigation.
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Gill, Joel C., Bruce D. Malamud, Edy Manolo Barillas, and Alex Guerra Noriega. "Construction of regional multi-hazard interaction frameworks, with an application to Guatemala." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 20, no. 1 (January 14, 2020): 149–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-149-2020.

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Abstract. Here we present an interdisciplinary approach to developing comprehensive, systematic, and evidenced visual syntheses of potential natural-hazard interactions at regional scales (or regional interaction frameworks). Frameworks can help with understanding the multi-hazard environment of a specific spatial extent. We explain our approach and apply this in Guatemala, developing regional interaction frameworks for national and sub-national (southern Guatemalan Highlands) spatial extents. The frameworks are constructed and populated using five evidence types relevant to natural-hazard interactions: (A) internationally accessible literature (93 peer-reviewed and 76 grey-literature sources), (B) locally accessible civil-protection bulletins (267 bulletins from 11 June to 15 October 2010), (C) field observations, (D) stakeholder interviews (19 semi-structured interviews), and (E) a stakeholder workshop (16 participants). These five evidence types were synthesised to determine an appropriate natural-hazard classification scheme for Guatemala, with 6 natural-hazard groups, 19 hazard types, and 37 hazard sub-types. For a national spatial extent in Guatemala, we proceed to construct and populate a regional interaction framework (matrix form), identifying 50 possible interactions between 19 hazard types. For a sub-national spatial extent (southern Guatemalan Highlands), we construct and populate a regional interaction framework (matrix form), identifying 114 possible interactions between 33 hazard sub-types relevant in the southern Guatemalan Highlands. We also use this evidence to explore networks of multi-hazard interactions (cascades) and anthropogenic processes that can trigger natural hazards. We present this information through accessible visualisations to improve understanding of multi-hazard interactions in Guatemala. We believe that our regional interaction framework's approach to multi-hazards is scalable, working at global to local scales with differing resolutions of information. Our approach can also be replicated in other geographical settings. We demonstrate how regional interaction frameworks and the discussion of potential scenarios arising from them can help with enhancing the cross-institutional dialogue on multi-hazard interactions and their likelihood and potential impacts. We review future research directions and steps to embed interaction frameworks into agencies contributing to the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction.
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Більше джерел

Дисертації з теми "Multi-hazard approach"

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Juarez, Garcia Hugon. "Multi-hazard risk assessment : an interdependency approach." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/27271.

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This research began with the Joint Infrastructure Interdependencies Research Program (JIIRP). JIIRP was part of an effort by the Government of Canada to fund research to develop innovative ways to mitigate large disaster situations. An interdependency simulator (I2Sim) was developed in the University of British Columbia through this project. This tool was developed to take into account the dynamic changes of the functional conditions of any given system. This thesis makes two major contributions to the capability of the simulator’s methodology, to handle seismic events and events that affect dense concentrations of people. The distinguishing characteristic of an earthquake event can affect the city and all the surrounding regions, causing damage to all lifeline systems. In its original form, I2Sim could model the damage and impact of each system on its own, but was unable to account for the effects of all other systems. The interdependency between systems is a crucial element for determining the impact of an earthquake and the time for recovery. The methodology proposed here can be used to measure Interdependencies and Resiliency in a region. Two cases were studied and implemented to test the methodology and the simulator. The first one was an earthquake hazard in a relatively small region (UBC Campus) in which the interdependencies and resiliency would be revealed to the emergency managers of UBC Campus; the second one, was a localized event in a massive sporting event (Winter Olympics in Vancouver), a black out in a Football Stadium that caused an uncontrolled egress, and related casualties due to a collapsing stage and the evacuation process were modelled. With the methodology and the simulator (I2Sim) it is possible to build up Region models, Disaster Scenarios, Objective Functions and Emergency Planning; and these, along with Interdependency and Resiliency calculations, will help in the preparedness, planning, response and recovery phases of any disaster.
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Ayhan, Murat. "A Model-based Guidance And Vulnerability Assessment Approach For Facilities Under The Threat Of Multi-hazard Emergencies." Master's thesis, METU, 2012. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12614534/index.pdf.

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Disasters (e.g. earthquakes) and emergencies (e.g. fire) threaten the safety of occupants in the buildings and cause injuries and mortalities. These harmful effects are even more dangerous when secondary hazards (e.g. post-earthquake fires) emerge and it is commonly observed that the disasters/emergencies trigger secondary hazards.An effective indoor emergency guidance and navigation approach for occupants and first responders can decrease the number of injuries and mortalities during building emergencies by improving the evacuation process and response operations. For this reason, this research will propose a model-based guidance and vulnerability assessment approach for facilities that are under the threat of multi-hazard emergencies. The approach can be used to guide occupants from the facility affected by disasters/emergencies to safer zones and to direct the first responders by supplying them necessary building related information such as identified vulnerable locations in the indoor environments. An integrated utilization of Building Information Modeling tools, sensors, shortest path algorithms, and vulnerability assessment algorithms is proposed for the system in this research. The research steps of this thesis include (1) determination of requirements of an indoor navigation during emergency response and disaster management,(2) review, comparison, and evaluation of shortest path algorithms from an emergency response and disaster management point of view, (3) proposing a vulnerability assessment approach, and (4) proposing a real-time indoor emergency guidance and navigation system framework for buildings under the threat of multi-hazard emergencies. The findings of the research can be used in future studies on emergency response and disaster management domains.
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Martinengo, Marta. "Improving some non-structural risk mitigation strategies in mountain regions: debris-flow rainfall thresholds, multi-hazard flooding scenarios and public awareness." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Trento, 2022. http://hdl.handle.net/11572/353702.

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Hydrogeological hazards are quite diffuse rainfall-induced phenomena that affect mountain regions and can severely impact these territories, producing damages and sometimes casualties. For this reason, hydrogeological risk reduction is crucial. Mitigation strategies aim to reduce hydrogeological risk to an acceptable level and can be classified into structural and non-structural measures. This work focuses on enhancing some non-structural risk mitigation measures for mountain areas: debris-flow rainfall thresholds, as a part of an Early Warning System (EWS), multivariate rainfall scenarios with multi-hazard mapping purpose and public awareness. Regarding debris-flow rainfall thresholds, an innovative calibration method, a suitable uncertainty analysis and a proper validation process are developed. The Backward Dynamical Approach (BDA), a physical-based calibration method, is introduced and a threshold is obtained for a study area. The BDA robustness is then tested by assessing the uncertainty in the threshold estimate. Finally, the calibrated threshold's reliability and its possible forecast use are assessed using a proper validation process. The findings set the stage for using the BDA approach to calibrate debris-flow rainfall thresholds usable in operational EWS. Regarding hazard mapping, a multivariate statistical model is developed to construct multivariate rainfall scenarios with a multi-hazards mapping purpose. A confluence between a debris-flow-prone creek and a flood-prone river is considered. The multivariate statistical model is built by combining the Simplified Metastatistical Extreme Value approach and a copula approach. The obtained rainfall scenarios are promising to be used to build multi-hazard maps. Finally, the public awareness within the LIFE FRANCA (Flood Risk ANticipation and Communication in the Alps) European project is briefly considered. The project action considered in this work focuses on training and communication activities aimed at providing a multidisciplinary view of hydrogeological risk through the holding of courses and seminars.
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FORNI, DANIELE. "Progressive collapse induced by fire and blast." Doctoral thesis, Politecnico di Torino, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/11583/2674396.

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Comprehensive finite element modelling of key elements is essential to improve the robustness assessment of structures subjected to a coupled effect of fire and blast. Focusing the attention on steel structures, a method for a realistic multi-hazard approach is presented. The problem has been investigated at the material level first and then at the structural level. The material level was studied performing a detailed experimental investigation in a wide range of strain rates and temperatures. A typical structural steel, namely S355, has been studied. A Split Hopkinson Tensile Bar equipped with a water-cooled induction heating system was used for the mechanical characterisation at high strain rates (300 1/s, 500 1/s and 850 1/s) and in a wide range of temperatures (20C, 200C, 400C, 550C, 700C and 900C). A Hydro-Pneumatic machine and a universal electromechanical testing machine were used for intermediate (5 1/s and 25 1/s) and quasi-static (0.001 1/s) strain rate tests at room temperature, respectively. Results showed that the S355 structural steel is strain rate sensitive, keeping its strain hardening capacity with increasing strain rates. The temperature effect was studied by means of the reduction factors for the main mechanical properties. Results at high strain rates highlighted also the blue brittleness phenomenon between 400C and 550C. The link between the material and the structural level is a material constitutive law able to take into account the strain rate sensitivity and the thermal softening. The widely used constitutive law proposed by Johnson and Cook was calibrated using the experimental results. A critical review of this material model highlighted a perceptible variation of the thermal softening parameter at different temperatures. Following a fitting approach, a modification of the dimensionless temperature (T*) has been proposed.The structural level was numerically investigated adopting the calibrated material model. Explicit non-linear dynamic analyses of a steel column under fire conditions and followed by an explosion were performed. The commercial code LS-DYNA was used. A method for a realistic multi-hazard approach has been proposed by studying the residual load bearing capacity. The results can be also of great interest to establish the initial conditions that could potentially lead to the onset of progressive collapse in steel framed structures under a combined effect of fire and blast. As expected, the results indicated that the load bearing capacity is influenced by the stand-off distance, the charge size as well as the column boundary conditions. The time of fire loading at which an explosion is triggered is a critical parameter as well.
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5

Mastere, Mohamed. "L’aléa mouvements de terrain dans la province de Chefchaouen (Rif Central, Maroc) : Analyse Spatiale, et Modélisation Probabiliste Multi-Echelle." Brest, 2011. https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00679623.

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L’aléa géologique constitue un axe de recherche en développement constant, les zones habitées étant de plus en plus envahissantes et les exigences pour la maîtrise des aléas étant de plus en plus fortes. Les zones de montagne sont des régions très concernées par différents types d’aléas. Cette étude s’est attachée à l’évaluation de l’aléa Mouvements de terrain (MT) qui constituent l’aléa le plus important dans le Rif Nord — Ouest, Maroc. Ce travail présente une procédure en trois étapes pour l’évaluation de l’aléa mouvements de terrains (AMT). Neuf paramètres disponibles de prédisposition et de déclenchement du milieu géologique (lithologie, fracturation, sismicité, gradient de pente, hypsométrie, exposition des versants, réseau hydrographique, précipitations, et occupation des sols) ont été cartographiés et hiérarchisés dans le but de mieux comprendre leurs interrelations et leurs effets respectifs dans la genèse des MT. Ensuite, la classification, l’inventaire, la description et l’analyse des MT ont été réalisés par interprétation d’images satellitaires THR associée à un travail de terrain. Enfin, l’AMT a été évalué par l’utilisation d’une approche multi-échelle (petite = 1/100 000em, et moyenne = 1/50 000°”j. A petite échelle, cette évaluation a été effectuée par la combinaison de cartes d’index (CCI) où les poids et les pondérations pour chaque paramètre ont été introduits en se basant sur les données statistiques réelles afin de réduire l’aspect subjectif de la méthode. A une échelle moyenne, cette évaluation a été effectuée par l’application et la comparaison de deux approches probabilistes. Il s’agit - de l’approche bivariée de la théorie de l’évidence, et, - de l’approche multivariée des régressions logistiques la première approche s’est avérée plus performante à prédire l’aléa glissements de terrain, alors que la seconde est plus performante pour modéliser l’aléa écroulements et coulées de débris à cette échelle, dans un environnement montagneux maghrébin. Les différentes cartes réalisées constituent un puissant outil d’aide à la décision pour présenter, comparer et discuter des scénarios d’aménagement du territoire : aménagements urbains, ouvrages ou tracés routiers. Ces résultats s’inscrivent dans le cadre du développement durable et permettront d’atténuer les impacts socioéconomiques habituellementconstatés, lors de déclenchement des MT
Geological hazards represent a research topic that is in constant development. Populated areas are ever expanding and the requirements for the control of the hazards they represent are becoming increasingly significant. Orogenic zones are among the areas affected by different types of hazards. This study focuses on the evaluation of mass movement (MM) hazard which is the most common hazard in the Northwest part of the Rifain belt in Morocco. It introduces a three-step procedure to assess mas movement hazard (MMH). Nine contextual variables that characterize the geological environment (lithology, fracturing, seismicity, slope gradient, elevation, aspect, stream’s net, precipitation and land-use) were mapped and classified in order to better understand their interrelationships and their respective effects in the onest of MM. Following this, the classification, inventory, description and the analysis of the MM were carried out by interpretation of high remote sensing data associated to the field study. Finally, MMS was assessed using a multi-scale approach (small = 1/100,000 ; mean = 1/50,000). At the small scale, this assessment was carried out using an index-based approach where the rating nd weighting of each parameter was introduced based on real statistical data to reduce the subjectivity of the method. At the meso-scale, this evaluation was performed by applying and comparing two probabilistic approaches. These are: (i) the bivariate weights of evidence approach (WOEA), and (ii) the multivariate logistic regression approach (LRA). WOEA proved most successful in predicting landslides hazard and LR proved most successfull in modeling rockfalls and debris flow at the meso-scale in a North African mountain environment. The various maps produced constitute a powerful decision-making tool to present, compare and discuss scenarios of town and land-use planning, i. E. Urban planning, works or road plans. These results are part of a sustainable development framework winch allows mitigating the socioeconomic impacts that are usually noticed during the release of MM
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6

Pinto, Guido. "Breastfeeding patterns, nutrition and postpartum amenorrhea in Guatemalan women a multi-state hazard approach /." 1994. http://catalog.hathitrust.org/api/volumes/oclc/32620520.html.

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Анотація:
Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1994.
Typescript. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 295-304).
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Книги з теми "Multi-hazard approach"

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Gardoni, Paolo, and James M. LaFave, eds. Multi-hazard Approaches to Civil Infrastructure Engineering. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-29713-2.

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Drake, Jeanette L., Yekaterina Y. Kontar, John C. Eichelberger, T. Scott Rupp, and Karen M. Taylor. Communicating Climate-Change and Natural Hazard Risk and Cultivating Resilience: Case Studies for a Multi-Disciplinary Approach. Springer London, Limited, 2015.

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3

Drake, Jeanette L., Yekaterina Y. Kontar, John C. Eichelberger, T. Scott Rupp, and Karen M. Taylor. Communicating Climate-Change and Natural Hazard Risk and Cultivating Resilience: Case Studies for a Multi-disciplinary Approach. Springer, 2016.

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4

Drake, Jeanette L., Yekaterina Y. Kontar, John C. Eichelberger, T. Scott Rupp, and Karen M. Taylor. Communicating Climate-Change and Natural Hazard Risk and Cultivating Resilience: Case Studies for a Multi-disciplinary Approach. Springer, 2015.

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5

Gardoni, Paolo, and James M. LaFave. Multi-hazard Approaches to Civil Infrastructure Engineering. Springer, 2016.

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6

Gardoni, Paolo, and James M. LaFave. Multi-Hazard Approaches to Civil Infrastructure Engineering. Springer London, Limited, 2016.

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7

Gardoni, Paolo, and James M. LaFave. Multi-hazard Approaches to Civil Infrastructure Engineering. Springer, 2018.

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8

Stewart, Alex G., Sam Ghebrehewet, and Richard Jarvis. Cancer and chronic disease clusters. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780198745471.003.0017.

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Clusters of disease are often reported to health protection and a finger pointed at a nearby environmental hazard that is thought to be the cause. There is an expectation that the causal linkage will be clarified and action taken to alleviate the resulting anxiety and stop further ill health. Not all reported clusters are real, but all are worth some level of investigation to alleviate anxiety. However, investigating such clusters is not easy. Neither is investigating causal linkages to environmental issues. Using an example of childhood cancer and contaminated land, this chapter takes a stepwise, structured approach to the investigation, defining realistic outcomes and clear criteria to stop such an investigation. The vital role of a multi-agency incident team to integrate health studies and environmental investigations is explored. Readers will be able to undertake such investigations for themselves across a wide range of putative clusters of chronic diseases.
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Частини книг з теми "Multi-hazard approach"

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Unnikrishnan, Vipin U., and Michele Barbato. "Performance-Based Hurricane Engineering: A Multi-Hazard Approach." In Multi-hazard Approaches to Civil Infrastructure Engineering, 337–56. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-29713-2_16.

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Calvi, Gian Michele, Luis Sousa, and Cristiana Ruggeri. "Energy Efficiency and Seismic Resilience: A Common Approach." In Multi-hazard Approaches to Civil Infrastructure Engineering, 165–208. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-29713-2_9.

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Peng, Xinlai, David B. Roueche, David O. Prevatt, and Kurtis R. Gurley. "An Engineering-Based Approach to Predict Tornado-Induced Damage." In Multi-hazard Approaches to Civil Infrastructure Engineering, 311–35. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-29713-2_15.

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Bocchini, Paolo, Vasileios Christou, and Manuel J. Miranda. "Correlated Maps for Regional Multi-Hazard Analysis: Ideas for a Novel Approach." In Multi-hazard Approaches to Civil Infrastructure Engineering, 15–39. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-29713-2_2.

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Quiel, Spencer E. "Progressive Collapse Resistance for Steel Building Frames: A Cascading Multi-Hazard Approach with Subsequent Fire." In Multi-hazard Approaches to Civil Infrastructure Engineering, 229–52. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-29713-2_11.

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Piyarathne, Anton. "Folk Religious Practices as an Indigenous Approach to Negotiating Disaster Risks in Sri Lanka." In Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Disaster Risks, 737–50. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-73003-1_47.

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D’Ambrosio, Donato, Salvatore Di Gregorio, Giuseppe Filippone, Rocco Rongo, William Spataro, and Giuseppe A. Trunfio. "A Multi-GPU Approach to Fast Wildfire Hazard Mapping." In Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, 183–95. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-03581-9_13.

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Mendis, M. M. P. "An Approach for Impact-Based Heavy Rainfall Warning, Based on the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index and Level of Hazard Risk." In Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Disaster Risks, 543–59. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-73003-1_37.

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Yasukawa, Soichiro, and Lesly M. Barriga Delgado. "Enhancing Disaster Preparedness and Building Resilience: UNESCO's Multi-hazard, Multi-disciplinary, and Multi-stakeholder Approach on Disaster Risk Reduction." In Disaster and Risk Research: GADRI Book Series, 93–100. Singapore: Springer Nature Singapore, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-5566-2_2.

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Barriga Delgado, Lesly Mercedes, Irina Pavlova, Soichiro Yasukawa, and Sergio Esperancinha. "Establishment of the Disaster Risk Reduction Unit in UNESCO and UNESCO’s Contribution to Global Resilience." In Progress in Landslide Research and Technology, Volume 1 Issue 1, 2022, 209–13. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-16898-7_15.

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AbstractThe occurrence of catastrophes has increased considerably in recent decades. Climate change, urban pressure and lack of disaster preparedness are increasingly transforming natural hazards into disasters, causing multiple losses. In the last decades, Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) has captured significant attention as the main approach to reduce vulnerabilities and exposure and improve preparedness to protect regional, national and local development. One of the main international agreements adopted to strengthen and enhance society’s resilience is the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015–2030), which emphasises the need for more inclusive, multi-hazard DRR processes and its synergies with climate change, health, and sustainable development. Within this framework, UNESCO enhances preparedness and builds resilience at all levels through multi-hazard, multi-discipline, and multi-stakeholder DRR mechanisms, supporting the Member States particularly on eight thematics. Likewise, UNESCO has been a catalyst for international, interdisciplinary cooperation in many aspects of disaster risk reduction and mitigation. The organisation has supported activities of international DRR programmes, such as International Consortium on Landslides (ICL), as part of its global contributions to this and other international agreements.
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Тези доповідей конференцій з теми "Multi-hazard approach"

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Baldridge, S. M., and F. K. Humay. "Multi Hazard Approach to Progressive Collapse Mitigation." In Structures Congress 2005. Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/40753(171)222.

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Dai, Wenqiang, and Qian Huang. "Fuzzy Multi-objective Programming Approach to Hazard Materials Treatment Center Location." In 2009 International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Computational Intelligence. IEEE, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/aici.2009.263.

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Gang Liu, Chonglong Wu, Xiaogang Ma, Yanni Wang, and Fei Tian. "Approach for interoperability of multi-source geological hazard data based on ontology and GeoSciML." In 2009 17th International Conference on Geoinformatics. IEEE, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/geoinformatics.2009.5293456.

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Scalvenzi, Martina, Fabio Freddi, and Fulvio Parisi. "ASSESSMENT AND RETROFITTING OF A RC BUILDING THROUGH A MULTI-HAZARD APPROACH: SEISMIC RESISTANCE AND ROBUSTNESS." In 8th International Conference on Computational Methods in Structural Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering Methods in Structural Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering. Athens: Institute of Structural Analysis and Antiseismic Research National Technical University of Athens, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.7712/120121.8594.18712.

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Decarli, Luca, Anna Crivellari, Laura La Rosa, Enrico Zio, Francesco Di Maio, Oscar Scapinello, and Luca Martinoia. "Multihazard Risk Aggregation Approach for Quantitative Risk Assessment of Upstream Oil and Gas Facilities." In Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition & Conference. SPE, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/207276-ms.

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Abstract For the design and operation of Oil and Gas (O&G) facilities, a Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) should be performed to quantify the risk of major accidents due to multiple hazards and sources at the plant level, thus allowing the effective identification and allocation of safety barriers. In this work, a novel approach for the multi-hazard and multi-source aggregation of risks is proposed, accounting for the uncertainties typically unexpressed in a conventional QRA (both on the frequency and severity of the accidental scenarios). The multi-hazard risk assessment framework proposed is applied to assess the Location-Specific Individual Risk (LSIR) for a representative Upstream O&G plant (case study), using a model based on multistate Bayesian Networks (BNs) for different functional units, each one undergoing an initiating event of Loss Of Primary Containment (LOPC). Estimates of frequency and severity for each possible accident scenario are aggregated to eventually calculate the overall LSIR. Moreover, LSIR's confidence intervals are provided to describe the uncertainty associated to the estimates, and the frequency and severity contributions to risk are derived for targeted prioritization of the safety barriers in view of the risk reduction.
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Butenweg, Christoph, Oreste S. Bursi, Chiara Nardin, Igor Lanese, Alberto Pavese, Marko Marinković, Fabrizio Paolacci, and Gianluca Quinci. "Experimental Investigation on the Seismic Performance of a Multi-Component System for Major-Hazard Industrial Facilities." In ASME 2021 Pressure Vessels & Piping Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/pvp2021-61696.

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Abstract Past earthquakes demonstrated the high vulnerability of industrial facilities equipped with complex process technologies leading to serious damage of the process equipment and multiple and simultaneous release of hazardous substances in industrial facilities. Nevertheless, the design of industrial plants is inadequately described in recent codes and guidelines, as they do not consider the dynamic interaction between the structure and the installations and thus the effect of seismic response of the installations on the response of the structure and vice versa. The current code-based approach for the seismic design of industrial facilities is considered not enough for ensure proper safety conditions against exceptional event entailing loss of content and related consequences. Accordingly, SPIF project (Seismic Performance of Multi-Component Systems in Special Risk Industrial Facilities) was proposed within the framework of the European H2020 - SERA funding scheme (Seismology and Earthquake Engineering Research Infrastructure Alliance for Europe). The objective of the SPIF project is the investigation of the seismic behaviour of a representative industrial structure equipped with complex process technology by means of shaking table tests. The test structure is a three-story moment resisting steel frame with vertical and horizontal vessels and cabinets, arranged on the three levels and connected by pipes. The dynamic behaviour of the test structure and of its relative several installations is investigated. Furthermore, both process components and primary structure interactions are considered and analyzed. Several PGA-scaled artificial ground motions are applied to study the seismic response at different levels. After each test, dynamic identification measurements are carried out to characterize the system condition. The contribution presents the experimental setup of the investigated structure and installations, selected measurement data and describes the obtained damage. Furthermore, important findings for the definition of performance limits, the effectiveness of floor response spectra in industrial facilities will be presented and discussed.
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Zhang, L. M., and S. Zhang. "Approaches to Multi-Hazard Landslide Risk Assessment." In Geo-Risk 2017. Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/9780784480731.025.

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Marjanishvili, Shalva. "Overview of Design of Structures to Extreme Hazards." In IABSE Congress, New York, New York 2019: The Evolving Metropolis. Zurich, Switzerland: International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering (IABSE), 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.2749/newyork.2019.2240.

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<p>Common engineering practice in multi-hazard design is to consider each natural hazard independently. The underlying assumption is that it is highly unlikely that one disaster will be closely followed by another. This approach dominated large part of the 20th century. The engineering community has made large strides in designing structures to withstand known hazards, leading to improved reliability and safety of infrastructure. This in turn has supported population growth and increased prosperity. As witness to our success, it is common in developed nations to consider it unacceptable for a disaster to cause large scale devastation. However, the nature of the disasters has proved otherwise.</p><p>It is unlikely that one extreme event will have catastrophic consequences on communities, because we know how to prepare for a single event. Instead, as experience shows, disasters are more typically comprised by one event followed by one or more other events, exposing the vulnerability of our design assumptions. The examples of multiple disasters are Indonesia (i.e., earthquake followed by tsunami followed by volcano), Haiti (i.e., earthquake followed by cholera outbreak) and Japan (i.e., earthquake followed by tsunami followed by nuclear meltdown). The obvious solution is to focus on understanding on the resilience of the system as an its ability to rapidly recover from the event.</p><p>This paper proposes a framework for quantitative measure and mathematically reproducible definitions of structural resilience as it pertains to a building’s ability to minimize the potential for undesirable consequences. The resilience assessment and design process follow logical progression of steps, starting with the characterization of hazards, continuing through analysis simulations, damage modelling, and loss assessment by finding and subsequently balancing functional relationships between design and analysis and consequences. The outcomes of each process are articulated through a series of generalized variables, termed as topology, geometry, damage and hazard intensity measures. Topological analysis methods are developed to map the effects of blast and extreme fire exposure so that the corresponding intensity measures can be addressed simultaneously during design</p>
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Qiao, Chi, and Andrew T. Myers. "Modeling Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Metocean Conditions During Hurricanes Using Deep Neural Networks." In ASME 2020 39th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2020-18989.

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Abstract Surrogate modeling of the variability of metocean conditions in space and in time during hurricanes is a crucial task for risk analysis on offshore structures such as offshore wind turbines, which are deployed over a large area. This task is challenging because of the complex nature of the meteorology-metocean interaction in addition to the time-dependence and high-dimensionality of the output. In this paper, spatio-temporal characteristics of surrogate models, such as Deep Neural Networks, are analyzed based on an offshore multi-hazard database created by the authors. The focus of this paper is two-fold: first, the effectiveness of dimension reduction techniques for representing high-dimensional output distributed in space is investigated and, second, an overall approach to estimate spatio-temporal characteristics of hurricane hazards using Deep Neural Networks is presented. The popular dimension reduction technique, Principal Component Analysis, is shown to perform similarly compared to a simpler dimension reduction approach and to not perform as well as a surrogate model implemented without dimension reduction. Discussions are provided to explain why the performance of Principal Component Analysis is only mediocre in this implementation and why dimension reduction might not be necessary.
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Ghassemi, Payam, and Souma Chowdhury. "Decentralized Informative Path Planning With Balanced Exploration-Exploitation for Swarm Robotic Search." In ASME 2019 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2019-97887.

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Abstract Swarm robotic search is concerned with searching targets in unknown environments (e.g., for search and rescue or hazard localization), using a large number of collaborating simple mobile robots. In such applications, decentralized swarm systems are touted for their task/coverage scalability, time efficiency, and fault tolerance. To guide the behavior of such swarm systems, two broad classes of approaches are available, namely nature-inspired swarm heuristics and multi-robotic search methods. However, simultaneously offering computationally-efficient scalability and fundamental insights into the exhibited behavior (instead of a black-box behavior model), remains challenging under either of these two class of approaches. In this paper, we develop an important extension of the batch Bayesian search method for application to embodied swarm systems, searching in a physical 2D space. Key contributions lie in: 1) designing an acquisition function that not only balances exploration and exploitation across the swarm, but also allows modeling knowledge extraction over trajectories; and 2) developing its distributed implementation to allow asynchronous task inference and path planning by the swarm robots. The resulting collective informative path planning approach is tested on target search case studies of varying complexity, where the target produces a spatially varying (measurable) signal. Significantly superior performance, in terms of mission completion efficiency, is observed compared to exhaustive search and random walk baselines, along with favorable performance scalability with increasing swarm size.
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Звіти організацій з теми "Multi-hazard approach"

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Bensi, Michelle, Somayeh Mohammadi, Shih-Chieh Kao, and Scott T. DeNeale. Multi-Mechanism Flood Hazard Assessment: Critical Review of Current Practice and Approaches. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), July 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1637939.

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Bensi, Michelle, Somayeh Mohammadi, Shih-Chieh Kao, and Scott Deneale. Multi-Mechanism Flood Hazard Assessment: Critical Review of Current Practice and Approaches. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), July 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1649363.

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Sett, Dominic, Florian Waldschmidt, Alvaro Rojas-Ferreira, Saut Sagala, Teresa Arce Mojica, Preeti Koirala, Patrick Sanady, et al. Climate and disaster risk analytics tool for adaptive social protection. United Nations University - Institute for Environment and Human Security, March 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.53324/wnsg2302.

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Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) as discussed in this report is an approach to enhance the well-being of communities at risk. As an integrated approach, ASP builds on the interface of Disaster Risk Management (DRM), Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Social Protection (SP) to address interconnected risks by building resilience, thereby overcoming the shortcomings of traditionally sectoral approaches. The design of meaningful ASP measures needs to be informed by specific information on risk, risk drivers and impacts on communities at risk. In contrast, a limited understanding of risk and its drivers can potentially lead to maladaptation practices. Therefore, multidimensional risk assessments are vital for the successful implementation of ASP. Although many sectoral tools to assess risks exist, available integrated risk assessment methods across sectors are still inadequate in the context of ASP, presenting an important research and implementation gap. ASP is now gaining international momentum, making the timely development of a comprehensive risk analytics tool even more important, including in Indonesia, where nationwide implementation of ASP is currently under way. OBJECTIVE: To address this gap, this study explores the feasibility of a climate and disaster risk analytics tool for ASP (CADRAT-ASP), combining sectoral risk assessment in the context of ASP with a more comprehensive risk analytics approach. Risk analytics improve the understanding of risks by locating and quantifying the potential impacts of disasters. For example, the Economics of Climate Adaptation (ECA) framework quantifies probable current and expected future impacts of extreme events and determines the monetary cost and benefits of specific risk management and adaptation measures. Using the ECA framework, this report examines the viability and practicality of applying a quantitative risk analytics approach for non-financial and non-tangible assets that were identified as central to ASP. This quantitative approach helps to identify cost-effective interventions to support risk-informed decision making for ASP. Therefore, we used Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia, as a case study, to identify potential entry points and examples for the further development and application of such an approach. METHODS & RESULTS: The report presents an analysis of central risks and related impacts on communities in the context of ASP. In addition, central social protection dimensions (SPD) necessary for the successful implementation of ASP and respective data needs from a theoretical perspective are identified. The application of the quantitative ECA framework is tested for tropical storms in the context of ASP, providing an operational perspective on technical feasibility. Finally, recommendations on further research for the potential application of a suitable ASP risk analytics tool in Indonesia are proposed. Results show that the ECA framework and its quantitative modelling platform CLIMADA successfully quantified the impact of tropical storms on four SPDs. These SPDs (income, access to health, access to education and mobility) were selected based on the results from the Hazard, Exposure and Vulnerability Assessment (HEVA) conducted to support the development of an ASP roadmap for the Republic of Indonesia (UNU-EHS 2022, forthcoming). The SPDs were modelled using remote sensing, gridded data and available global indices. The results illustrate the value of the outcome to inform decision making and a better allocation of resources to deliver ASP to the case study area. RECOMMENDATIONS: This report highlights strong potential for the application of the ECA framework in the ASP context. The impact of extreme weather events on four social protection dimensions, ranging from access to health care and income to education and mobility, were successfully quantified. In addition, further developments of CADRAT-ASP can be envisaged to improve modelling results and uptake of this tool in ASP implementation. Recommendations are provided for four central themes: mainstreaming the CADRAT approach into ASP, data and information needs for the application of CADRAT-ASP, methodological advancements of the ECA framework to support ASP and use of CADRAT-ASP for improved resilience-building. Specific recommendations are given, including the integration of additional hazards, such as flood, drought or heatwaves, for a more comprehensive outlook on potential risks. This would provide a broader overview and allow for multi-hazard risk planning. In addition, high-resolution local data and stakeholder involvement can increase both ownership and the relevance of SPDs. Further recommendations include the development of a database and the inclusion of climate and socioeconomic scenarios in analyses.
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Wozniakowska, P., D. W. Eaton, C. Deblonde, A. Mort, and O. H. Ardakani. Identification of regional structural corridors in the Montney play using trend surface analysis combined with geophysical imaging, British Columbia and Alberta. Natural Resources Canada/CMSS/Information Management, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4095/328850.

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The Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) is a mature oil and gas basin with an extraordinary endowment of publicly accessible data. It contains structural elements of varying age, expressed as folding, faulting, and fracturing, which provide a record of tectonic activity during basin evolution. Knowledge of the structural architecture of the basin is crucial to understand its tectonic evolution; it also provides essential input for a range of geoscientific studies, including hydrogeology, geomechanics, and seismic risk analysis. This study focuses on an area defined by the subsurface extent of the Triassic Montney Formation, a region of the WCSB straddling the border between Alberta and British Columbia, and covering an area of approximately 130,000 km2. In terms of regional structural elements, this area is roughly bisected by the east-west trending Dawson Creek Graben Complex (DCGC), which initially formed in the Late Carboniferous, and is bordered to the southwest by the Late Cretaceous - Paleocene Rocky Mountain thrust and fold belt (TFB). The structural geology of this region has been extensively studied, but structural elements compiled from previous studies exhibit inconsistencies arising from distinct subregions of investigation in previous studies, differences in the interpreted locations of faults, and inconsistent terminology. Moreover, in cases where faults are mapped based on unpublished proprietary data, many existing interpretations suffer from a lack of reproducibility. In this study, publicly accessible data - formation tops derived from well logs, LITHOPROBE seismic profiles and regional potential-field grids, are used to delineate regional structural elements. Where seismic profiles cross key structural features, these features are generally expressed as multi-stranded or en echelon faults and structurally-linked folds, rather than discrete faults. Furthermore, even in areas of relatively tight well control, individual fault structures cannot be discerned in a robust manner, because the spatial sampling is insufficient to resolve fault strands. We have therefore adopted a structural-corridor approach, where structural corridors are defined as laterally continuous trends, identified using geological trend surface analysis supported by geophysical data, that contain co-genetic faults and folds. Such structural trends have been documented in laboratory models of basement-involved faults and some types of structural corridors have been described as flower structures. The distinction between discrete faults and structural corridors is particularly important for induced seismicity risk analysis, as the hazard posed by a single large structure differs from the hazard presented by a corridor of smaller pre-existing faults. We have implemented a workflow that uses trend surface analysis based on formation tops, with extensive quality control, combined with validation using available geophysical data. Seven formations are considered, from the Late Cretaceous Basal Fish Scale Zone (BFSZ) to the Wabamun Group. This approach helped to resolve the problem of limited spatial extent of available seismic data and provided a broader spatial coverage, enabling the investigation of structural trends throughout the entirety of the Montney play. In total, we identified 34 major structural corridors and number of smaller-scale structures, for which a GIS shapefile is included as a digital supplement to facilitate use of these features in other studies. Our study also outlines two buried regional foreland lobes of the Rocky Mountain TFB, both north and south of the DCGC.
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Public investment profile for climate risk reduction in Barbados: a macroeconomic cost-benefit analysis for reducing the socio-economic risk of coastal erosion. Inter-American Development Bank, December 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003915.

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The “Study on Disaster Risk Management A macroeconomic cost-benefit analysis for reducing the socio-economic risk of coastal erosion”, a dynamic modelling approach was developed to quantify the macroeconomic costs and benefits of investment in disaster risk reduction. The goal of the developed tool was multifaceted, with emphasis on assessing mixes of disaster risk reduction and financial protection instruments, and with a focus on addressing shortfalls in current disaster risk modelling methods. This work serves as the final report of the project and presents the results of an application of the developed Dynamic Model of Multi-hazard Mitigation Co-benefits (DYNAMMICs) framework to the country case of Barbados, demonstrating the applicability of the approach through empirical assessment of DRR investment options to combat coastal hazards facing the island country.
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