Дисертації з теми "Monetary policy. Fiscal policy. International macro"

This thesis considers how fiscal and monetary policy should be conducted in resourcerich economies. It consists of three papers addressing: whether governments should spend, save or invest volatile oil income; the assets they should save in; and how monetary policy should respond. The first, “Eight principles for managing resource wealth”, shows that capital-scarce countries should save relatively less against oil price volatility, and invest more in domestic capital. They also should prepare for volatility in advance, and treat savings as a source of income rather than a temporary buffer. To show this the paper develops a framework that nests a variety of existing results, which are presented in eight principles. The second, “The Elephant in the Ground: Oil extraction and asset allocation in sovereign wealth funds”, shows that governments should use sovereign wealth funds to offset oil price risk, extract oil faster if its price is pro-cyclical, and use precautionary savings to manage any residual volatility. To do this it combines three strands of literature for the first time: on continuous-time portfolio theory, oil extraction and precautionary savings. The third, “Optimal monetary responses to oil discoveries”, addresses the anticipation effects around an oil discovery. It shows that the terms of trade will need to appreciate twice: once when oil is discovered and consumers anticipate future revenues; and again when the government begins spending the revenues. Oil wealth will give the monetary authority an incentive to appreciate the terms of trade, in addition to stabilising domestic inflation and the output gap. Optimal policy is well-approximated by a standard monetary rule that also responds to expected changes in the natural level of output.

This thesis consists of three essays in monetary economics and international macroeconomics.
Chapter one uses Canadian data to evaluate the performance of money growth targeting and inflation targeting policy rules, especially when they react to asset price changes. There are three important findings. First, estimates of the policy rules consistent with both regimes provide evidence that the Bank of Canada has systematically reacted to stock price bubbles and exchange rate changes. Second, a counterfactual experiment reveals that, the high inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s could have been avoided if the Bank of Canada had responded more strongly to inflation and growth in aggregate demand. Third, simulation experiments yielded two important results: For both the money growth targeting and inflation targeting policy rules, it is always desirable to react to changes in exchange rates and stock price bubbles: Contrary to established findings, the results indicate that the money growth targeting policy rules are more efficient than the inflation targeting policy rules.
Chapter two uses data on Ghana to test the validity of the intertemporal model of current account that allows for external shocks in the form of variable interest rates and exchange rates, and the existence of capital controls. We find that, irrespective of the degree of capital control, the basic model fails to predict the dynamics of the actual current account. However, we find that extending the model to capture variations in interest rates and exchange rates better explains the path of the actual current account balances only during the liberalized regime. When the model was adjusted to allow for credit constraints, there was some support for the proposition that the presence of capital controls prevented economic agents in Ghana to smooth their consumption path during the control regime.
Chapter three investigates the effect of trading block on Tanzania's bilateral trade. Using a fixed effects estimation technique, the results revealed that the East African Community (EAC) and the European Union (EU) have had significant positive effects on Tanzania's bilateral trade. We also find that there is a significant intra-trade relationship between Tanzania and its major trading partners in the manufacturing sector.

This thesis is comprised of six Chapters on US Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy and their interaction with fiscal policy, both domestically and internationally. Chapter 1 introduces the main themes of the thesis. Chapter 2 studies the theoretical background of the thesis. After setting out key themes and the theoretical background in the introductory Chapters, the first core Chapter, i.e. thesis Chapter 3, examines the interaction between fiscal and monetary policy. Price puzzles are a repeated feature of empirical VAR models studying the effect of monetary policy. These price puzzles are often believed to appear due to the lack of information. However, we show that whether monetary and fiscal policy are active or passive influences the appearance of the price puzzle. This is because an active fiscal policy and a passive monetary policy can encourage private expenditure through a positive wealth channel. An active fiscal policy means fiscal authorities set expenditure regardless of tax revenues, while a passive monetary policy refers to a weak response of the policy interest rate to inflation. Finally, we find evidence in this Chapter that fiscal policy stimulates economic activity, i.e. it is non-Ricardian. Chapter 4 examines the effect of monetary and fiscal policy interactions in an international context. In particular, it considers the international spillovers of US monetary policy, whilst account for fiscal policy. This Chapter shows that US government debt influences the duration of the responses to a monetary contraction. Furthermore, it is shown that an increase in US government debt influences both the short and long-term interest rates, inflation, and output in the Euro Area and UK. This is through a positive wealth effect. In addition, the results of Persistence Profiles test, i.e. how fast we converge upon equilibrium following a shock, suggest that accounting for US government debt delays the return to equilibrium following monetary policy shocks. This may be due to the impact of fiscal policy on inflation and its persistence. Chapter 5 studies Unconventional Monetary Policy (UMP). It is shown that UMP increases output and inflation in the US, and generates spillovers to the Euro Area and UK. Furthermore, we present evidence that the portfolio balance is the transmission channel of UMP. That is UMP contributes to lowering the bound yields while it increases the price of assets. Chapter 6 concludes and summarizes the thesis, and provides a discussion of policy implications.

En esta tesis estudio varias cuestiones de política monetaria y fiscal usando modelos de equilibrio generales completamente micro-fundados. El primer capítulo de esta tesis trata la cuestión de cómo la políticas monetarias y fiscales se deben conducir en una unión monetaria donde hay un solo banco central que fija el tipo de interés común mientras que el gobierno todavía conserva independencia completa en las decisiones de políticas fiscales. En el segundo capítulo se dedica a estudiar si es posible racionalizar en un modelo keynesiano completamente micro-fundado la existencia de una unión monetaria. El último capítulo investiga en qué medida el incentivo de las autoridades de política económica en una economía abierta de mejorar los términos de intercambio en su favor se puede compensar por la externalidad de relocalización de la producción (home market effect).
In this thesis I study different kinds of monetary and fiscal policy issues by using fully microfounded general equilibrium models. The first chapter addresses the question of how monetary and fiscal policy should be conducted in a monetary union where there is a single central bank that sets the common interest rate while governments still retain full independence in fiscal policy decisions. The second chapter is devoted to study whether it is possible to rationalize, within a fully microfounded New Keynesian framework, the existence of a monetary union. The last chapter investigates to what extent the incentive of open economy policy makers to improve the terms of trade in their favour can be outweighed by the production relocation externality (the so called home market effect).

O objetivo deste trabalho consiste em analisar relações existentes entre a gestão da dívida pública e a condução das políticas monetária e fiscal, bem como examinar os efeitos da composição da dívida na trajetória de endividamento para o caso da economia brasileira. Com este foco, foi construído um modelo macro-estrutural que estabelece relações entre o processo de evolução da relação dívida/produto e a trajetória de variáveis macroeconômicas. Foram realizadas simulações utilizando a técnica de Monte Carlo para observar o impacto das trajetórias do hiato do produto e das taxas de câmbio, juros e inflação na evolução da relação dívida/produto em diferentes contextos de atuação das autoridades monetária e fiscal. No modelo estrutural a trajetória da dívida é função da participação dos instrumentos de financiamento na composição da dívida pública. Os instrumentos utilizados são: (i) títulos indexados à taxa Selic; (ii) títulos indexados a índices de preços; (iii) títulos prefixados; e (iv) títulos indexados à taxa de câmbio. O modelo permitiu captar que, quando a sensibilidade da inflação a mudanças na taxa de juros é pequena, os apertos monetários necessários ao cumprimento da meta produzem maior elevação na relação D/Y. Essa elevação se torna ainda mais acentuada quanto maior for a sensibilidade do produto a mudanças na taxa de juros. Os resultados permitem, ainda, analisar os trade-offs entre custo e risco oferecidos pelos instrumentos de financiamento em diferentes posturas das autoridades fiscal e monetária.
The aim of the present work consists in analyzing connections that exist between the management of public debt and the conduct of fiscal and monetary policies, as well as examining the effects of debt composition on the trajectory of the Brazilian Debt/GDP ratio. We propose a macro-structural model for the Brazilian economy to derive relations regarding debt management and the macroeconomic variables. Using Monte Carlo simulations we observed how inflation, GDP, interest rate and exchange rate alter their trajectories when we have changes in the conduct of fiscal and monetary policies. The impacts of these changes on Debt/GDP ratio depend on the debt composition. The funding instruments analyzed are: (i) Selic indexed bonds; (ii) inflation linked bonds; (iii) fixed-rate bonds; and (iv) dollar indexed bonds. The model captured that, the lower the sensibility of inflation associated with changes on interest rates, the higher the impacts on Debt/GDP consequences of a tightening in monetary policy The results allows to observe the tradeoffs between the risk and the cost associated with debt instruments for different scenarios of fiscal and monetary policies.

This thesis studies the optimal conduct of unconventional monetary policy in the form of purchases of long-term government debt by the central bank and, motivated by this policy tool, the evolution of long-term government debt holdings in household portfolios over the course of the life cycle. It is comprised of three self-contained chapters. The first chapter investigates whether it can be beneficial for central banks to use the unconventional tool even when the main policy rate is not constrained by the zero lower bound. A friction in the interaction between households and banks allows central bank purchases of long-term government debt to reduce long-term interest rates and thus to stimulate economic activity. If debt purchases and conventional short-term interest rate policy are coordinated in an appropriate way, the central bank is able to reduce the volatility of output and inflation. In the second chapter, the role that unconventional monetary policy can play in a currency union is analysed. A model is laid out, in which two countries form a currency union with a common central bank but separate and uncoordinated fiscal policy institutions. When monetary policy is implemented only through the common short-term interest rate, the central bank is unable to respond effectively to country-specific shocks. Due to segmentation in the market for long-term government debt, the yield on long-term debt can differ across countries. As a result, a monetary policy authority that can rely on bond purchases is able to address idiosyncratic shocks reflected in volatility of the natural terms of trade more effectively and to achieve higher welfare than one that cannot make use of this instrument. The final chapter studies the long-term government bond share in household portfolios over the course of the life cycle. US data from the Survey of Consumer Finances suggests that participation in the market for long-term government debt first increases and later decreases as agents approach the retirement age. The portfolio share conditional on participation is non-decreasing over the working life. These stylised facts can be explained by means of a portfolio choice model in which agents are subject to aggregate risk through asset returns as well as idiosyncratic risk through labour income and the stochastic events of retirement and death.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is the leading international economic crisis manager, but the effects of its loans and conditionality reach far beyond overarching macroeconomic indicators. This paper will examine the consequences of IMF fiscal policy conditions on income inequality and poverty by examining cases in Latin America, and specifically Mexico during the 1980s. The role that internal politics within borrowing countries plays is also closely examined. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for the IMF to ensure the most equitable and effective means of overcoming balance of payments crises.

Thesis advisor: Fabio Ghironi
My dissertation develops a set of tools for introducing heterogeneity into economic models in an analytically tractable way. Many models use the representative agent framework, which greatly simplifies macroeconomic aggregation but abstracts from the heterogeneity we see in the real world. In my research, I move away from the representative agent framework in two key ways. First, my work in international macroeconomics incorporates heterogeneity via idiosyncratic shocks across countries. Second, my work on financial frictions employs asymmetric information between lenders and borrowers. In both of these areas, my goal is to examine the implications of heterogeneity in the most tractable way possible. Crucially, these insights can be incorporated into the models currently used by academics and central banks for policy analysis. The first chapter of my dissertation, "Price Stability in Small Open Economies," joint work with Mikhail Dmitriev, studies the conduct of optimal monetary policy in a continuum of small open economies. We obtain a novel closed-form solution that does not restrict the elasticity of substitution between home and foreign goods to one. Using this global closed-form solution, we give an exact characterization of optimal monetary policy and welfare with and without international policy cooperation. We consider the cases of internationally complete asset markets and financial autarky, producer currency pricing and local currency pricing. Under producer currency pricing, it is always optimal to mimic the flexible-price equilibrium through a policy of price stability. Under local currency pricing, policy should fix the exchange rate. Even though countries have monopoly power, the continuum of small open economies implies that policymakers cannot affect world income. This inability to influence world income removes the incentive to deviate from price stability under producer currency pricing or a fixed exchange rate under local currency pricing, and prevents gains from international monetary cooperation in all cases examined. Our results contrast with those for large open economies, where interactions between home policy and world income drive optimal policy away from price stability or fixed exchange rates, and gains from cooperation are present. The second chapter of my dissertation, "The Optimal Design of a Fiscal Union'', joint work with Mikhail Dmitriev, examines the role of fiscal policy cooperation and financial market integration in an open economy setting, motivated by the recent crisis in the euro area. I show that the optimal design of a fiscal union is governed by the degree of substitutability between the export goods of different countries. When countries produce goods that are imperfect substitutes they should harmonize their income taxes to prevent large terms of trade externalities. On the other hand, when countries produce goods that are close substitutes, they should organize a contingent fiscal transfer scheme to insure against idiosyncratic shocks. The welfare gains from the optimal fiscal union are as high as 5\% of permanent consumption when countries are able to trade safe government bonds, and approach 20\% of permanent consumption when countries lose access to international financial markets. These gains are especially large for countries like Greece that produce highly substitutable export goods and who cannot raise funds on international financial markets to insure against downside risk. The results illustrate why federal currency unions such as the U.S., Canada and Australia, with income tax harmonization and built-in fiscal transfer arrangements, withstand asymmetric shocks across regions much better than the euro area, which lacks these ingredients at the moment. The third chapter of my dissertation, joint work with Mikhail Dmitriev, studies macro-financial linkages and the impact of financial frictions on real economic activity in some of my other work. Beginning with the Bernanke-Gertler-Gilchrist (1999) financial accelerator model, a large literature has shown that financial frictions amplify business cycles. Using this framework, Christiano, Motto and Rostagno (AER, 2013) show that shocks to financial frictions can explain business cycle fluctuations quite well. However, this literature relies on two ad hoc assumptions. When these assumptions are relaxed and agents have access to a broader set of lending contracts, the financial accelerator disappears, and shocks to financial frictions have little to no impact on the economy. In addition, under the ad hoc lending contract inflation targeting eliminates the financial accelerator. These results provide guidance for monetary policymakers and present a puzzle for macroeconomic theory
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2014
Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Economics

L’objet de cette thèse est de contribuer à l’analyse de l’effet des politiques visant à endiguer les risques d’instabilité financière. Les investigations menées sont d’ordre théorique (modèle DSGE) et empirique. En se plaçant dans un cadre macroéconomique d’un pays ouvert, deux dimensions doivent être prises en compte. La dimension externe est couverte par la politique de contrôles prudentiels des capitaux. De par son caractère sélectif, cette politique peut permettre de diminuer les déséquilibres externes qui ne rentrent pas dans le champ d’application macro-prudentielle. Cette dernière aborde la dimension interne et cherche à internaliser le risque global consécutif aux choix d’investissement desagents résidents. L’analyse de la coordination interne de ces deux types de mesures, macro-prudentielles et contrôles prudentiels, est essentielle pour garantir leur efficacité. En outre, les potentiels effets de débordements internationaux que peuvent entraîner les politiques de régulation prudentielle doivent être étudiés avant de valider l’utilisation de telles politiques.Voici les résultats que nous tirons de notre analyse. La politique macro-pudentielle semblent offrir de meilleurs résultats en termes de stabilité financière, des prix et de performance économique que les contrôles de capitaux. Toutefois, les contrôles prudentiels de capitaux ont leur rôle à jouer. Nos résultats montrent surtout une utilité envers la croissance excessive du crédit. L’application de contrôles prudentiels, lorsque la croissance du crédit devient excessive, peut permettre d’atténuer la surchauffe du système financier et de diminuer le décalage entre le cycle économique et financier. Par conséquent, si un choc négatif survient, les conséquences économiques devraient être amoindries. Ensuite, la politique optimale s’avère être celle combinant la politique monétaire et prudentielle, menée par une agence commune qui prend les décisions en matière de politique monétaire et prudentielle conjointement. Les politiques prudentielles s’avèrent d’autant plus nécessaires que les prêts transfrontaliers sont importants. Enfin, des effets de débordement des politiques prudentielles sur les autres pays incitent à davantage de coopération internationale ou régionale en la matière
The aim of this thesis is to contribute to the analysis of the effect of policies aimed at curbing the risks associated with financial instability. The investigations carried out are theoretical (DSGE model) and empirical. In an open country macroeconomic framework, two dimensions must be taken into account. The external dimension is covered by the policy of prudential capital controls. Because of its selective nature, this type of policy can help reduce external imbalances that do not fall within the macroprudential scope. The latter addresses the internal dimension and seeks to internalize the overall risk resulting from the investment choices of resident agents. The analysis of the internal coordination of these two types of macro-prudential measures and prudential controls is essential to ensure their effectiveness. In addition, the potential effects of international spillovers that may result from prudential regulation policies must be studied before validating the use of such policies. We find that macroprudential policies seem to offer better results in terms of financial stability, price stability and economic performance than capital controls. However, prudential capital controls have their role to play, especially with regards to excessive credit growth. The application of prudential controls, when credit growth becomes excessive, can indeed help mitigating the overheating of the financial system and reducing the gap between economic and financial cycles. Therefore, as a negative shock occurs, its economic consequences should be lessened. Then, the optimal policy turns out to bethe one combining monetary and prudential policy, led by a joint agency that makes decisions on monetary and prudential policies. Prudential policies are all the more necessary as cross-border lending is important. Finally, the effects of prudential policies on other countries encourage more international or regional cooperation in this area

La crise financière mondiale qui a débuté en 2008, et la crise des dettes souveraines en zone euro qui l'a suivie, ont successivement forcé les macroéconomistes à repenser leur cadre conceptuel. Cette thèse est une modeste contribution aux efforts colossaux déployés par les macroéconomistes à travers le monde pour faire face à ce défi: renforcer la compréhension de l'utilisation optimale des outils de politique économique non conventionnels. A cette fin, elle est construite en deux parties. Chaque partie vise à explorer au plan théorique un "contexte macroéconomique-type" au sein duquel des outils de politique économique non conventionnels ont été employés ces dernières années. La première partie, intitulée "Politique Non Conventionelle Optimale en Economie Ouverte", analyse l'utilisation optimale d'instruments de politique économique non conventionels par une banque centrale en économie ouverte. En présence de frictions financières qui modifient la manière dont la politique monétaire affecte l'économie, ou en présence de chocs exogènes qui mettent en défaut la "divine coïncidence", cette partie décrit comment un banquier central devrait combiner un instrument de politique monétaire non conventionnelle et la politique monétaire conventionnelle à des fins de stabilisation macroéconomique. La seconde partie, "Politique Budgétaire Optimale en Union Monétaire", adopte le point de vue du gouvernement d'un pays situé en union monétaire (typiquement la zone euro). Un tel pays ne disposant d'une politique monétaire autonome (au plan national), cette partie étudie la possibilité pour un tel pays d'utiliser la politique budgétaire comme un outil de stabilisation, et décrit l'utilisation optimale des dévaluations fiscales en réponse à des chocs exogènes idiosyncratiques
The 2008 global financial crisis and the subsequent euro area sovereign debt crisis successively forced macroeconomists to reassess this conceptual framework. This thesis is a modest contribution to the huge efforts undertaken by macroeconomists following the crisis to meet this challenge, i.e. to develop some insights about the optimal use of unconventional policy tools. To do so, this thesis is twofold. Each part intends to explore from a theoretical perspective a fundamental macroeconomic situation that called for the use of unconventional policy instruments in the recent years. The first part, ”Optimal Unconventional Policy in An Open Economy” analyzes the optimal use of unconventional policy instruments by the central bank in an open economy framework. Assuming that the presence of financial frictions changes the way monetary policy affects the economy, or that the occurence of exogenous shocks breaks the ”divine coincidence”, this part describes how a central bank should combine an unconventional policy instrument and conventional monetary policy to favor macroeconomic stabilization. The second part, ”Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Currency Union”, takes the standpoint of the governement of a country located in a currency union (typically the euro area). Such a country being deprived of monetary policy autonomy, this part considers the opportunity of using fiscal policy as a stabilization tool, and describes the optimal use of fiscal devaluations following idiosyncratic exogenous shocks

L'économie moderne complexifiée, qui résulte d'une société humaine hétérogène, oblige les économistes et les décideurs à élaborer des modèles économiques complexes. Outre cette complexité, les politiques économiques varient d’un pays à l’autre.Cette thèse aborde ces complexités des économies modernes.Dans les trois premiers chapitres de cette thèse, j'améliore les théories existentes pour évaluer le rôle des agents intermédiaires financiers, des marchés d'immobilier et du crédit dans l'économie, en utilisant des modèles d’Équilibre Général Dynamique et Stochastique (EGDS). Les données de trois périodes de l’économie américaine, y compris le climat économique avant la Grande Récession, l’effondrement systémique de 2008 et les politiques budgétaires après la crise, sont imputés aux modèles. Les modèles EGDS ont souvent été critiqués pour leur trop grande simplification des marchés financières.J'ai inclus les frictions financières des différents côtés de l'économie pour résoudre les échecs des modèles précédents.Les résultats des simulations indiquent que l'introduction de ces nouvelles caractéristiques dans l'économie révèle de nouveaux canaux et mécanismes qui sont négligés dans les modèles simples. Par conséquent, mon modèle donne un moyen plus précis de prévoir les mouvements économiques. En outre, cette thèse documente l’importance des réglementations des politiques macroprudentielles dans la stabilité financière, la durabilité et le bien-être. Enfin, dans les deux derniers chapitres de ma thèse, j’aborde l’étude des marchés avancés et je me concentre sur les économies en développement.Ces chapitres construisent de nouveaux modèles et abordent diverses questions économiques relatives à l'économie financière, publique et du travail dans les pays en développement, à travers le prisme des modèles EGD à agents hétérogènes.J'examine les impacts des chocs réels, monétaires, fiscaux et pétroliers sur l'environnement économique des pays en développement. Je propose ensuite des recommandations de politique économiques
The modern economy, which is a result of intricate human society, compels economists and policy makers to build complex economic models. In addition to this complexity, each country requires its own economic policies. This thesis addresses these intricacies of modern economies. In the first three chapters of this thesis, I improve the current literature to assess the role of financial intermediary agents, housing and credit markets in the economy, using Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. Data from three periods in the US economy, including the economic climate before the Great Rescission, the systemic collapse in 2008, and post-crisis fiscal policies, are imputed into the models. Simple DSGE models havebeen criticized for not placing more emphasis on financial frictions. Here, I have included financial frictions on different sides of economy to resolve the failures of previous models.The results of simulations indicate that introducing these features to the economy reveals new channels and mechanisms which are neglected in simple models. As a result, my model gives a more accurate means to forecast economic movements. In addition, this thesis documents the significance of macroprudential policy regulations in financial stability, sustainability and welfare. Lastly, in the final two chapters of my thesis, I move away from the study of advanced markets and focus on developing economies. These chapters build new models and address a variety of economic questions pertaining to financial, public and labor economics in developing countries, through the lens of multi-agent dynamic general equilibrium models. I examine the impacts of real, monetary, fiscal and oil price shocks on the economic environment of developing countries. I then propose appropriate policy recommendations

Cette thèse étudie deux phénomènes qui ont impacté la trajectoire de développement de plusieurs pays dans le monde : les crises financières et les poussées de croissance. La première partie de cette thèse, composée de deux chapitres (chapitres 1 et 2), analyse les coûts commerciaux et les contractions économiques associés aux crises financières dans les pays en développement et émergents. Elle examine également les canaux de transmission de ces effets et le rôle de l'espace budgétaire dans la relance économique d'après crise. La seconde partie, elle aussi composée de deux chapitres (chapitres 3 et 4), analyse les déterminants des poussées de croissance et le rôle du Fonds Monétaire International dans leur initiation. Cette thèse contribue significativement à la littérature existante sur ces deux phénomènes. Le chapitre 2 étudie les effets des crises de la dette, bancaire et de change sur le commerce des biens agricoles, miniers, manufacturiers et des services dans 41 pays émergents sur la période allant de 1980 à 2018. Il révèle que les crises génèrent une baisse prononcée et persistante du commerce international (exportations et importations), portée principalement par la contraction du commerce des biens manufacturiers, et dans une certaine mesure par la baisse du commerce des services, des produits miniers, alors que les biens agricoles apparaissent plus résilients, notamment à la suite des crises de la dette. En outre, la baisse du commerce est beaucoup plus accentuée pour les crises combinées. Les crises induisent cette baisse à travers des effets de composition (la structure et la diversification du commerce), de demande (baisse de la demande de biens et services), et d'offre (baisse de l'offre du crédit, des flux de capitaux entrants et du développement financier). Le chapitre 3 étudie le rôle de l'espace budgétaire sur les effets récessifs des crises financières et la politique de relance économique dans 35 pays en développement et 56 pays émergents sur la période 1985-2017. Il montre que la disponibilité de l'espace budgétaire avant la crise génère une dualité. Dans les pays qui ont un espace budgétaire suffisant, les coûts des crises sont plus faibles voir nuls et les gouvernements mènent des politiques de relance, supportées par une hausse de la consommation, des investissements et des flux nets de capitaux. Dans les pays avec un espace budgétaire faible, les gouvernements renoncent à leurs politiques de relance et mènent des politiques de consolidations budgétaires pour accroître la soutenabilité des finances publiques ; dans ce cas, la consommation, les investissements et les flux nets de capitaux baissent, et la récession est accentuée et persistante. Le chapitre 4 s'intéresse aux déterminants des poussées de croissance économique. Il identifie 132 épisodes de croissance soutenue dans 117 pays sur la période 1980-2010. Il montre que les améliorations de la stabilité macroéconomique et des conditions externes et dotations en ressources augmentent plus la probabilité des poussées de croissance. Elles sont suivies par les vagues de réformes structurelles, les gains d'investissements, de travail et de productivité, l'amélioration de la diversification et la qualité du commerce, et enfin par l'amélioration des facteurs institutionnels. De plus, il montre que la probabilité d'avoir des poussées de croissance augmente significativement quand les améliorations de la stabilité macroéconomique et des conditions externes et dotations en ressources interviennent, d'une part, et les autres facteurs, d'autre part. Ces deux premiers facteurs apparaissent donc comme des facteurs dominants. Le chapitre 5 évalue le rôle du FMI dans l'initiation des périodes de croissance soutenue et contribue à la littérature très controversée sur l'efficacité des politiques du FMI. Il montre que le FMI a significativement contribué à générer des périodes de croissance soutenue, notamment à travers ses programmes PRGT. (...)
This dissertation studies two phenomena that have been widespread in many countries of the world through history and have huge implications for development, namely the financial crises and growth surges. The first part, comprising two chapters (chapters 2 and 3), analyzes the sectoral trade and output costs of financial crises in the context of developing and emerging countries. It also examines the channels by which financial crises affect trade and output and assess the role of fiscal policy and space to alleviate the output costs. The second part, comprising also two chapters (chapters 4 and 5) turns our attention to the determinants of growth surges in countries and the International Monetary Fund's role in igniting growth surges. Chapter 2 studies the response of different types of trade (i.e. agricultural, mining, and manufactured goods, and services) following various types of financial crises (i.e. debt, banking, and currency crises) in 41 emerging countries over the period 1980-2018. It reveals that the collapse of total trade in the aftermath of financial crises is long-lasting and mainly driven by the fall of manufacturing trade. Also, trade in both mining goods and services declines following several types of financial crises, while trade in agricultural goods seems to benefit from a possible substitution effect particularly following debt crises. These trade costs are reinforced for combined crises and can be explained by compositional and structural (trade structure and diversification), demand-side (fall in demand for goods and services), and supply-side channels (disruption of financial development, fall of net capital inflows and deterioration of credit ratings). Chapter 3 studies how fiscal policy space shapes the dynamics of output losses in the aftermath of financial crises and normal recessions in a sample of 35 developing and 56 emerging countries over the period 1985-2017. It reveals that the availability of fiscal space in the aftermath of financial crises and normal recessions generates a mixed fiscal environment with different output losses of shocks. In countries with enough fiscal space, governments can enact credible fiscal policy expansion by increasing their deficit and using their fiscal space to alleviate the costs of financial crises and normal recessions. In such a situation, private consumption and investment, as well as net capital inflows, increase, which favors a rapid recovery. In countries with limited fiscal space, the story is different and painful; governments immediately trade output stabilization goals out to address the debt sustainability issues while implementing fiscal consolidations, which deepens the recessionary forces. Besides, in these countries, private consumption and investment, as well as net capital inflows, are depressed, and recovery, if any, is a distant and uncertain prospect. Chapter 4 studies the determinants of growth surges. It identifies 132 episodes of growth surges in 117 countries over the period 1980-2010 and finds that improvements in macroeconomic stability and external factors and endowments favor a higher probability of growth surge. They are followed by structural reforms, investments, labor and productivity, trade diversification and quality, and lastly by institutions. Besides, it shows that countries can maximize the likelihood of igniting growth surges if they jointly achieve significant improvements in macroeconomic stability and external conditions and endowments, on one hand, and other determinants, on the other hand. Moreover, significant changes in macroeconomic stability, and to some extent, external factors and endowments may be considered as dominant strategies to ignite a growth surge, as no improvements in these determinants, generally constraint the other determinants to have a smaller effect on growth surges. Chapter 5 engages and contributes to the debate on the effectiveness of the IMF in promoting growth. (...)

This thesis examines the measurement, applications and properties of consumer inflation expectations in the context of eight European Union countries: France, Germany, the UK, Spain, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands and Sweden. The data proceed mainly from the European Commission's Consumer Survey and are qualitative in nature, therefore requiring quantification prior to use. This study first seeks to determine the optimal quantification methodology among a set of approaches spanning three traditions, associated with Carlson-Parkin (1975), Pesaran (1984) and Seitz (1988). The success of a quantification methodology is assessed on the basis of its ability to match quantitative expectations data and on its behaviour in an important economic application, namely the modelling of wages for our sample countries. The wage equation developed here draws on the theoretical background of the staggered contracts and the wage bargaining literature, and controls carefully for inflation expectations and institutional variables. The Carlson-Parkin variation proposed in Curto Millet (2004) was found to be the most satisfactory. This being established, the wage equations are used to test the hypothesis that the advent of EMU generated an increase in labour market flexibility, which would be reflected in structural breaks. The hypothesis is essentially rejected. Finally, the properties of inflation expectations and perceptions themselves are examined, especially in the context of EMU. Both the rational expectations and rational perceptions hypotheses are rejected. Popular expectations mechanisms, such as the "rule-of-thumb" model or Akerlof et al.'s (2000) "near-rationality hypothesis" are similarly unsupported. On the other hand, evidence is found for the transmission of expert forecasts to consumer expectations in the case of the UK, as in Carroll's (2003) model. The distribution of consumer expectations and perceptions is also considered, showing a tendency for gradual (as in Mankiw and Reis, 2002) but non-rational adjustment. Expectations formation is further shown to have important qualitative features.

Cette thèse traite des interactions entre les sphères financière et réelle de l'économie. Elle se compose de quatre chapitres. Dans les deux premiers chapitres, nous étudions l'existence et les fluctuations d'une bulle spéculative rationnelle, comme source de la volatilité des prix d'actifs, en prenant en compte les imperfections financières dans la modélisation des choix des ménages. L'existence d'un choix de portefeuille et de frictions financières favorisent l'émergence des fluctuations d'une bulle et des cycles économiques endogènes. Dans un tel contexte, nous analysons le rôle stabilisateur des politiques fiscales et/ou monétaires. Dans le chapitre 1, nous montrons qu'une politique monétaire répondant aux prix des actifs permet de stabiliser l'économie dans son ensemble. Dans le chapitre 2, nous comparons les vertus stabilisatrices d'un impôt progressif sur le revenu de capital à celles d'une politique monétaire régie par une règle de Taylor. Nous montrons qu'un impôt progressif sur le capital permet de stabiliser l'économie en réduisant la probabilité d'apparition des fluctuations endogènes, alors qu'une règle de Taylor a des vertus stabilisatrices mitigées. Nous étudions, dans le chapitre 3, l'existence de bulles rationnelles dans une économie ouverte à deux pays et la transmission internationale de leur éclatement. L'éclatement de la bulle dans un pays se transmet nécessairement à l'autre pays. L'effet de l'éclatement peut être positif ou négatif sur l'autre pays. Dans le chapitre 4, nous analysons le rôle de l'hétérogénéité sur la dynamique des prix d'actifs et les inégalités lorsque les agents ont des préférences pour la richesse
This thesis deals with the interplay between the financial and real sectors of the economy. This thesis consists of four chapters. In the first two chapters, we study the existence and endogenous fluctuations of rational speculative bubbles, as a source of volatility in asset prices, taking into account the financial imperfections at the household level. We argue that the existence of a portfolio choice and financial frictions promote the emergence of bubble fluctuations and endogenous business cycles. In this context, we analyze the stabilizing role of fiscal and/or monetary policies. In Chapter 1, we show that a monetary policy responding to asset prices can stabilize the economy as a whole. In Chapter 2, we compare the stabilizing virtues of a progressive taxation on capital income with those of a monetary policy managed by a Taylor rule. We show that a progressive taxation on capital may rule out endogenous fluctuations, whereas a monetary policy under a Taylor rule has a mitigated stabilizing role. In Chapter 3, we study, the existence of rational bubbles in a two-country economy, and the international transmission of their bursting. A bubble bursting in a country necessarily transmits to the othercountry. The effect of a bubble crash in one country onthe bubble issued by the other country can be positive or negative. In Chapter 4, we analyze the role of heterogeneity on the dynamics of asset prices and inequalities when economic agents have preferences for wealth. Heterogeneity in preferences, but also in income, can heighten social inequalities and increase the asset price in the long run, but also promote asset price volatility in the short run

In the first chapter, I quantify the welfare effect of eliminating the U.S. capital income tax under international financial integration. I employ a two-country, heterogeneous-agent incomplete markets model calibrated to represent the U.S. and the rest of the world. Short-run and long-run factor price dynamics are key: after the tax reform, post-tax interest rate increases less under financial openness relative to autarky. Therefore the wealth-rich households gain less. Post-tax wages also fall less, so the wealth-poor are hurt less. Hence, the fraction in favor of the reform increases, although the majority still prefers the status quo. Aggregate welfare effect to the U.S. is a permanent 0.2 % consumption equivalent loss under financial openness which is 85.5 % smaller than the welfare loss under autarky. The second chapter aims to answer two questions: What helps forecast U.S. inflation? What causes the observed changes in the predictive ability of variables commonly used in forecasting US inflation? In macroeconomic analysis and inflation forecasting, the traditional Phillips curve has been widely used to exploit the empirical relationship between inflation and domestic economic activity. Atkeson and Ohanian (2001), among others, cast doubt on the performance of Phillips curve-based forecasts of U.S. inflation relative to naive forecasts. This indicates a difficulty for policy-making and private sectorâs long term nominal commitments which depend on inflation expectations. The literature suggests globalization may be one reason for this phenomenon. To test this, we evaluate the forecasting ability of global slack measures under an open economy Phillips curve. The results are very sensitive to measures of inflation, forecast horizons and estimation samples. We find however, terms of trade gap, measured as HP-filtered terms of trade, is a good and robust variable to forecast U.S. inflation. Moreover, our forecasts based on the simulated data from a workhorse new open economy macro (NOEM) model indicate that better monetary policy and good luck (i.e. a remarkably benign sample of economic shocks) can account for the empirical observations on forecasting accuracy, while globalization plays a secondary role.
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In responding to subprime crisis with its peak with the bankruptcy of investment bank Lehman brothers in September of 2008, marking the end of the “great moderation”, several governments and central banks of developed and emerging economies change the respective fiscal and monetary policies, in order to stimulate the economy, some more than others, creating spillovers and transmit them by different channels through the stocks market worldwide. Furthermore, due to recent debate of the implementation of similar monetary stimulus program in China, like to the ones implemented in US and in currently in development in Euro Area, is relevant access the f policies consequences in China. The present work particularly focusses on the consequences of monetary and fiscal policies implemented in the United States, United Kingdom, Euro Area, Japan in China. The results show that the spillovers of the international fiscal and monetary policy are overall nonexistent or weak at best. However, there are significant spillovers of United States and Japan with China, the monetary policy of US has positive impact and the fiscal has negative impact on Shanghai stock returns, the same is true of the Japanese monetary policy.
Na resposta a crise do subprime com o seu auge com a falência do banco Lehman Brothers em setembro de 2008, marcando o fim da “grande moderação”, vários governos e bancos centrais de países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento mudaram as suas respetivas fiscais e monetárias, em ordem a estimular a economia, alguns com maior ímpeto que outas, criando spillovers e transmitindo os mesmos por diferentes canais para os mercados acionistas a nível mundial. Para alem do mais, devido ao recente debate de implementação de um programa de estímulos monetários semelhante na China aos que foram implementados nos EUA e atualmente em desenvolvimento na Área do Euro, é pertinente avaliar se os impactos das consequências destas politicas nos países desenvolvidos nos países emergente e viceversa. O presente trabalho foca-se nas consequências das politicas fiscais implementas nos Estados Unidos, Reino Unido, Área do Euro, Japão e China. Os resultados mostram que os spillovers das politicas monetária e fiscais seguidas por estes países são nulos ou muito residuais. Contudo, existe spillovers significativos dos Estados Unidos e do Japão com a China, a politica monetária dos Estados Unidos tem um impacto positivo e a politica fiscal tem um impacto negativo nos retornos do mercado acionista de Shanghai, o mesmo é verdade para a politica monetária japonesa.

This Dissertation provides an empirical analysis regarding the effects of the interactions between monetary and fiscal policies in the Euro Area’s GDP, using quarterly data from 2000 until 2020. Using an ARDL-EC model to analyse the long run and short run effects on the Euro Area’s GDP, the equation includes monetary policy variables, fiscal policy variables, and a proxy for its interactions. This Dissertation concludes that the Euro Area’s GDP is positively impacted by monetary policy in the long run and short run, while the impact of fiscal policy is negative. The result for the interactions between monetary and fiscal policy is encouraging for further research on this topic, because of the model’s quick adjustment speed and the favourable evolution of the proxy for the policy mix, in the analysis of its economic significance through the different business cycles.
Esta Dissertação apresenta uma análise empírica dos efeitos das interações entre as políticas monetária e fiscal no PIB da Zona Euro, utilizando dados trimestrais de 2000 a 2020. Utilizando um modelo ARDL-EC para analisar os efeitos de longo e curto prazo sobre o PIB da Zona Euro, a equação inclui variáveis de política monetária, variáveis de política fiscal, e uma proxy para as interações entre as políticas. Conclui-se que o PIB da Zona Euro é positivamente impactado pela política monetária no longo e curto prazo, enquanto o impacto da política fiscal é negativo. O resultado para as interações entre política monetária e fiscal é animador para futuras investigações sobre o tema, devido à rápida velocidade de ajuste do modelo e à evolução favorável da proxy para o policy mix, no contexto da análise do seu significado económico ao longo dos diferentes ciclos económicos.

The G20 leaders’ forum was created at a time when the global financial system was on a precipice. Credit markets were freezing. Stock markets were collapsing. Rolling failures across financial institutions were shattering economic confidence. In their first communique, leaders concluded that a root cause of the crisis was insufficient macroeconomic cooperation. It was only through improved cooperation, they warned, that a global depression could be averted. The thesis explores the impact of macroeconomic policy cooperation within the G20 since 2008 and what it means for the challenges facing the world today. It poses four central questions. Does the G20 influence the domestic macroeconomic policies of its members? What are the economic benefits of macroeconomic cooperation and under what circumstances do they arise? Does the G20 produce political benefits that encourage cooperation? Has the G20 been successful in its attempts at macroeconomic cooperation in the past? The thesis attempts to answer these questions using data analysis, a new G20-version of a general equilibrium model and the results from in-depth interviews with 63 leaders, central banks governors, finance ministers and officials from across all G20 countries, including Kevin Rudd, Janet Yellen, Haruhiko Kuroda, Ben Bernanke, Jack Lew, Mark Carney, Phil Lowe and 56 others. The thesis looks at the six areas that make up the G20’s history on macroeconomic cooperation since 2008 – a chronology of the G20’s first 10 years as a forum for leaders -and their relevance to the challenges facing the world in 2018: the economic and political benefits of coordinating fiscal stimulus (Chapter 3), fixing the inadequacies in the world’s crisis-fighting mechanisms (Chapter 4), helping countries to reduce debt and deficits (Chapter 5), strengthening monetary policy cooperation (Chapter 6), reducing global current account imbalances (Chapter 7) and promoting coordinated structural reform (Chapter 8). Chapter 9 summarises the findings of the thesis. Fundamentally, the thesis demonstrates the benefits and influence of global macroeconomic policy cooperation and the cost of abandoning it. The thesis shows that the G20 does influence domestic macroeconomic policies, that the benefits from cooperation can be substantial, that the G20 can help politicians undertake difficult reforms and that the G20 has a strong record of success and remains a critical part of global economic governance. Using the interview results, the thesis builds a new framework on the influence of global forums on domestic policies. It explores how this influence varies depending on the form of cooperation (such as information sharing), the transmission mechanism of influence (such as generating peer pressure) and the variables that determine the strength of that influence (such as a crisis). Using the general equilibrium modelling results, it explores when there is a case for cooperation and the benefits that can flow from it. The gains to GDP, for example, can be 120 per cent larger if fiscal stimulus is coordinated than if it is not. It shows that coordination can help reduce global current account imbalances, can help countries to reduce debt and deficits, can help prevent currency wars and protectionism and, by coordinating macroeconomic resources through international crisis-response institutions, can prevent crises occurring and respond faster when they do. Finally, the thesis uses the results from each chapter to review the overall success of the G20 on macroeconomic cooperation, including where it has succeeded, where it has fallen short and what factors influence its success. It shows that the G20 has had a good track record in achieving its goals and that criticisms of the G20 often overlook its shift from crisis response to focusing on more difficult structural and institutional issues. The thesis concludes by presenting a forward-looking agenda for the G20 to improve macroeconomic cooperation in the future, particularly in countering the current backlash against globalisation and multilateral cooperation while addressing some of its root causes.