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1
Milić Beran, Ivona. "SYSTEM-DYNAMIC MODELING OF THE IMPACT OF SOCIAL CAPITAL ON ECONOMIC GROWTH." DIEM: Dubrovnik International Economic Meeting 6, no. 1 (September 2021): 25–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.17818/diem/2021/1.3.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This paper presents a qualitative and quantitative system-dynamic modeling of the impact of social capital on economic growth. Social capital is the most problematic of all the concepts that determine progress. On a broad conceptual level, there is agreement about the importance of social capital, which has been used to explain differences in progress among nations with similar natural, human and physical capital. Recent research suggests that it is more important to include an explanation of the interaction of economic actors and their organization when measuring progress than to measure progress without the influence of social capital. The purpose of this paper is to develop a system-dynamic model of the impact of social capital on economic growth that will enable better understanding and management of social capital. In order to build a system dynamics model, the paper will: provide an analysis and overview of social capital and system dynamics; develop a system dynamics structural and mental-verbal model of the impact of social capital on economic growth; and develop a mathematical model of economic growth. This will provide a practical insight into the dynamic behavior of the observed system, i.e., analyzing economic growth and observing the mutual correlation between individual parameters. Keywords: social capital, economic growth, system dynamics, structural model
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Rozman, Črtomir, Miroljub Kljajić, and Karmen Pažek. "Sugar Beet Production: A System Dynamics Model and Economic Analysis." Organizacija 48, no. 3 (August 1, 2015): 145–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/orga-2015-0017.
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Abstract Background and Purpose: The sugar beet is the main field crop used for sugar production in the temperate climatic zone. Since investment in sugar beet industry are long term and ireversible the decision support and economic analysis are required in order to maximise investment returns. Methodology: A system dynamics methodology was chosen to model the impacts of regional sugar factory investments. We present the basic concepts of system dynamics (SD) models and their development in the case of sugar beet production and processing systems. Sugar beet economics are also analyzed using the static technological economic simulation model. Results: The simulation provides answers to strategic questions related to the total sugar beet production and processing system and will be used for the simulation of different scenarios for sugar production and their impact on economic and environmental parameters at an aggregate level. Furthermore, the feasibility analysis of sugar beet production revealed that at the current price and intensity levels (yields), we can expect profitable sugar beet production for both white sugar and ethanol. Conclusion: Preliminary results show that under expected production parameters the sugar beet processing and production would be economically feasible.
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Liu, Wei, and Yaolin Jiang. "Modeling and dynamics of an ecological-economic model." International Journal of Biomathematics 12, no. 03 (April 2019): 1950030. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s179352451950030x.
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In this paper, an eco-economic model with harvesting on biological population is established, which takes the form of a differential-algebra system. The impact of the economic profit from harvesting upon the dynamics of the model is studied. By using a suitable parameterization for the differential-algebra system, we derive an equivalent parameterized system which gives the stability results for the positive equilibrium point of our model. Moreover, based on the parameterized system as well as the approaches of normal form and formal series, the conditions on the Hopf bifurcation and the stability of center are obtained. Several numerical simulations for demonstrating the theoretical results are also presented. Lastly, according to the dynamical analysis, we provide a threshold value for the economic profit, which can maintain the sustainable development of our eco-economic system.
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Liu, De Jun. "Dynamic System Study on Economic Development and its Causal Feedback Relations in Economic System." Applied Mechanics and Materials 437 (October 2013): 950–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.437.950.
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In order to study the relationship of human capital and economic development, we establish the system dynamics model of human capital and economic development. According to the analysis of the system dynamics causal feedback between human capital and economic development, we build a system dynamics flow chart of human capital and economic development by using system dynamics software Vensim languages and tools, and we simulate the development trend of each index variable in human capital and economic for the future.
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Kim, Deokmin. "A Nonlinear Economic Growth Model: A System Dynamics Perspective." Korean System Dynamics Review 19, no. 1 (March 31, 2018): 31–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.32588/ksds.19.1.2.
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Żukowski, Paweł. "Podstawy budowy modelu dynamiki systemu zarządzania oraz jego symulacja w organizacji gospodarczej (na podstawie metodologii dynamiki systemów J.W. Forrestera)." Przedsiębiorczość - Edukacja 8 (January 1, 2012): 331–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.24917/20833296.8.24.
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In the work chapter, after discussing issues related to systems thinking, mental models, system dynamics and procedure of modeling, presents the socio-mathematical description of the dynamics of economic organization management system based on system dynamics methodology developed by Jay W. Forrester, as a creative concept used for researching system thinking. The purpose of this description is to illustrate the methodology and characteristics the construction this type of that models. This description is a simply way represent any economic organization (production), which show the organizational units (departments and production department), the flows of orders, the streams of information about materials and prefabricates, final products and their storage and sales. Built model of system dynamics allow management to analyze the causes of fluctuations In the processes of economic organization changes observed at the urgen changes to take new orders for final products. The simulation made on the basic experimentally constructed model revealed certain properties characteristic of the dynamic behavior of economic organization (formation of the characteristic and interesting letter size) at its manufacturing operations in case of adoption of new orders for final products.
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Olson, David L., Paraskeva Dimitrova‐Davidova, and Ivan Stoykov. "Systems dynamics model of a transition firm." Managerial Finance 31, no. 3 (March 1, 2005): 67–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/03074350510769578.
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Eastern European countries are undergoing a transition from centralized economic planning to more open economic systems. A team of Bulgarian and U.S. researchers have collaborated to study this problem, using a real Bulgarian winery as the focus of their research. System dynamics modeling was selected as a tool to provide better understanding of management issues. A framework for future objective research, and as a pedagogical tool. This system dynamics model generates output on a number of measures. This paper presents initial output from the model, reporting profit ability, risk, and market share measures. These multiple measures create the need for multiple criteria analysis. Three multiple criteria techniques are demonstrated, and their value in the system dynamics simulation modeling process is discussed.
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McDonald, Nicola J., and Garry W. McDonald. "Towards a Dynamic Equilibrium-Seeking Model of a Closed Economy." Systems 8, no. 4 (November 4, 2020): 42. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/systems8040042.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Economics has long been concerned with the development of tools to help understand and describe the interactions among economic actors including the circular flow of economic resources. This paper expands our available toolkit of models, by describing a novel dynamic equilibrium-seeking model of a closed economy. The model retains many of the key features of state-of-the-art Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models including economic interdependence, input substitution, nested production functions, and so on. A distinguishing feature of this model is that it adopts price-related balancing feedback loops that simulate the self-regulating behaviour of a dynamic economic system. Our modelling shows not only equilibrium states (as per conventional CGE models), but the transition path toward an often-changing equilibrium. This facilitates the investigation of out-of-equilibrium dynamics and behaviour adaptation typical of largescale disruption events.
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Dai, Yang Chun, and Yin Fang Xu. "The Application of System Dynamics in Urban Master Planning." Applied Mechanics and Materials 644-650 (September 2014): 6097–100. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.644-650.6097.
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In view of the current single analysis method that exist in the overall urban planning, urban planning and social economic development and some problems such as lack of dynamic planning, put forward by using system dynamics theory and the method of combining computer technology, through the establishment of overall urban planning system dynamics model, the quantitative and dynamic study on the overall urban planning and simulation, urban planning and the better way to economic and social harmonious development, and provide more specific to the overall urban planning scheme optimization and scientific basis.
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Omamo, Amos O., Anthony J. Rodrigues, and Wafula J. Muliaro. "A System Dynamics Model of Technology and Society." International Journal of System Dynamics Applications 9, no. 2 (April 2020): 42–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijsda.2020040103.
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Kenya has emerged in recent times as one of the fastest growing telecom markets in the world. There is not a single, widely used paradigm which has synthesised the various schools and theories dealing with technology and society. This article argues that the issue of mobile technology on society is a complex technical and social phenomenon that needs to be understood from both ICT and social science perspectives. This study used the concept of governance socio-techno-economic systems as the theoretical framework. System dynamics are used as both the methodology and tool to model the mobile industry impact on society. The study shows that the increase in social capital intensity is an important source of the economic growth. This increase will strengthen the accelerator mechanism of the economy and creates larger multiplier effects. The increase in social capital intensity can be obtained through managing innovation processes base on the development of education and the R&D capacity of the nation.
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Maxwell, William F. "System Dynamics in Economic and Financial Models." International Journal of Forecasting 16, no. 1 (January 2000): 135–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0169-2070(99)00041-2.
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Rozman, Črtomir, Karmen Pažek, Jernej Prišenk, Andrej Škraba, and Miroljub Kljajić. "System dynamics model for policy scenarios of organic farming development." Organizacija 45, no. 5 (October 1, 2012): 212–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/v10051-012-0016-2.
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This paper presents the system dynamics model of organic farming development in order to support decision making. The model seeks answers to strategic questions related to the level of organically utilized area, levels of production and crop selection in a long-term dynamic context. The model will be used for simulation of different policy scenarios for organic farming and their impact on economic and environmental parameters of organic production at an aggregate level. Using the model, several policy scenarios were performed.
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SVETLOV, N. M. "SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL OF REGIONAL GRAIN MARKETS." Izvestiâ Timirâzevskoj selʹskohozâjstvennoj akademii, no. 3 (2021): 88–105. http://dx.doi.org/10.26897/0021-342x-2021-3-88-105.
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The paper develops a methodology for modeling regional markets for field crops, taking grain markets as a case. It proposes and tests a new combination of model assumptions that solves the problem of reproducing the actually observed stability of product supply to the consumer in the context of predominantly market regulators. A basic model of the grain market functioning is developed, describing in continuous time the chain of commodity flows linking producers and consumers. Interregional transportation is taken into account. This is a prototype of a future model, which should be calibrated on actual data and include markets for grain processing products, as well as the possibility of simulating economic policy instruments. The model is based on the principle of market fundamentalism when modeling the volume of grain production, setting them in a sole dependence on prices. The same principle, yet with reservations, is applied in the modeling of exports and interregional transportation. Consumption modeling combines opposing principles of market fundamentalism, which guides consumers, and market skepticism of resellers – counterparties of consumers. Resellers, when deciding on the volume of supplies, neglect prices – they are guided by the size and dynamics of grain stock. As a result of computer simulations, it is shown that a set of assumptions underlying the model provides, with an appropriate selection of parameters, the necessary dynamic properties of the model: in all regions, the relative stability of consumption and prices during the season is secured, and short-term fluctuations in domestic prices effectively direct grain transportation to regions in need. Moreover, the volume of grain exports weakly correlates with domestic price of grain, which is typical for the real Russian grain market. The ultimate aim of the study, one of the stages of which is the algorithm presented in the paper, is to create tools for analyzing the interaction effects of the economic policy measures applied in different sections of the production and processing chains of various types of field crops for periods shorter than a year.
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Ma, Chenbin, Wenzhao Zhang, Yu Zheng, and Aimin An. "Economic Model Predictive Control for Post-Combustion CO2 Capture System Based on MEA." Energies 14, no. 23 (December 5, 2021): 8160. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14238160.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
For the post-combustion CO2 capture (PCC) system, the time variability of the economic performance is key to the production process of such an actual industrial process. However, the performance index used by the conventional model predictive control (MPC) does not reflect the economy of the production process, so the economic cost function is used instead of the traditional performance index to measure the economy of the production process. In this paper, a complete dynamic model of the PCC system is constructed in Aspen Plus Dynamics. The effectiveness of the model is verified by dynamic testing; subspace identification is carried out using experimental data, a state-space equation between flue gas flow and lean solvent flow; the CO2 capture rate is obtained; and dynamic models and control algorithm models of accused objects are established in Matlab/Simulink. Under the background of the environmental protection policy, an economic model predictive control (EMPC) strategy is proposed to manipulate the PCC system through seeking the optimal function of the economic performance, and the system is guaranteed to operate under the economic optimal and excellent quality of the MPC control strategy. The simulation results verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.
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Wang, Lei, and Hongwei Tan. "Economic Analysis of Animal Husbandry Based on System Dynamics." Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience 2022 (April 12, 2022): 1–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/5641384.
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In order to improve the effect of animal husbandry economic analysis, this article studies the animal husbandry economy based on system dynamics and studies how to define total factor productivity and its measurement method. Moreover, this article compares and analyzes the production function method, data envelopment analysis, and index method for measuring total factor productivity, selects decision-making units, and determines and processes input-output data. In addition, this article combines the system dynamics model to explore the causal relationship of the animal husbandry economy and builds an intelligent model to intelligently analyze the animal husbandry economy. Finally, this article analyzes the economy and performance of animal husbandry based on simulation experiments. The simulation test results show that the system dynamics model proposed in this article has a good performance in the economic analysis of animal husbandry.
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Gonzalez-Parra, Gilberto, and Abraham J. Arenas. "A Mathematical Model for Social Security Systems with Dynamical Systems." Ingeniería y Ciencia 10, no. 19 (January 2014): 33–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.17230/ingciencia.10.19.2.
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In this paper it is proposed a mathematical approach based ondynamicsystems to study the effect of the increase in the Social Security normalretirement age on the worker and on the dynamics of retiree populations.In order to simplify this initial effort, the proposed model does not includesome economic variables, such as wage growth, earnings or productivity.Here, we employ numerical simulations of the model to investigate the dy-namics of the labor force under different demographic scenarios. Analysisof this type of model with numerical simulations can help government economic planners make optimal strategies to sustain pension systems andforecast future trends of pensioner and worker populations.
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Feng, Huirong, C. W. Lim, Liqun Chen, Xinnian Zhou, Chengjun Zhou, and Yi Lin. "Sustainable Deforestation Evaluation Model and System Dynamics Analysis." Scientific World Journal 2014 (2014): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/106209.
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The current study used the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to construct a sustainable deforestation development evaluation system and evaluation model, which has refined a diversified system to evaluate the theory of sustainable deforestation development. Leveraging the visual image of the system dynamics causal and power flow diagram, we illustrated here that sustainable forestry development is a complex system that encompasses the interaction and dynamic development of ecology, economy, and society and has reflected the time dynamic effect of sustainable forestry development from the three combined effects. We compared experimental programs to prove the direct and indirect impacts of the ecological, economic, and social effects of the corresponding deforest techniques and fully reflected the importance of developing scientific and rational ecological harvesting and transportation technologies. Experimental and theoretical results illustrated that light cableway skidding is an ecoskidding method that is beneficial for the sustainable development of resources, the environment, the economy, and society and forecasted the broad potential applications of light cableway skidding in timber production technology. Furthermore, we discussed the sustainable development countermeasures of forest ecosystems from the aspects of causality, interaction, and harmony.
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Wang, Jianguo, Tongsan Wang, Yuna Shi, Diwei Xu, Yutian Chen, and Jie Wu. "Metaverse, SED Model, and New Theory of Value." Complexity 2022 (May 9, 2022): 1–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/4771516.
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The metaverse concept constructs a virtual world parallel to the real world. The social economic dynamics (SED) model establishes a systematic model for social economic dynamics simulation that integrates macroeconomy and microeconomy based on modeling mechanism of the new theory of value by analogy with Newtonian mechanics and the modeling approach of Agent-based computational economics. This article describes the SED model’s modeling mechanisms, modeling rules, and behavior equations. At the same time, this article introduces the methods, testing standards, and some typical cases about using the SED model to generate the economic digital twin systems. By doing so, we hope to demonstrate that the method of computer simulation experiment based on the SED model is a scientific empirical method, which has more advantages than the existing empirical research methods in economics. The SED model, which can be fully used to form an economic engine and construct a virtual economic system by digital twin method, can be integrated with the extant physical engine in the metaverse concept to build a virtual world consisting of physics, economy, culture, and politics that is close to and coexists with reality.
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GRAUWIN, SEBASTIAN, DOMINIC HUNT, ERIC BERTIN, and PABLO JENSEN. "EFFECTIVE FREE ENERGY FOR INDIVIDUAL DYNAMICS." Advances in Complex Systems 14, no. 04 (August 2011): 529–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0219525911003128.
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Physics and economics are two disciplines that share the common challenge of linking microscopic and macroscopic behaviors. However, while physics is based on collective dynamics, economics is based on individual choices. This conceptual difference is one of the main obstacles one has to overcome in order to characterize analytically economic models. In this paper, we build both on statistical mechanics and the game theory notion of Potential Function to introduce a rigorous generalization of the physicist's free energy, which includes individual dynamics. Our approach paves the way to analytical treatments of a wide range of socio-economic models and might bring new insights into them. As first examples, we derive solutions for a congestion model and a residential segregation model.
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Naumkina, Dina, Alexander Rostovtsev, and Alexandr Abramov. "Digital heterogeneous dynamic model of peled Coregonus peled Gmelin." Fisheries 2020, no. 5 (October 9, 2020): 80–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.37663/0131-6184-2020-5-80-85.
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The article provides an example of constructing a complex dynamic model of a biological and economic system with the commodity two-year-old peled growing in Lake Ik in 2017-2018 as a case study. A brief description of the lake and a detailed description of the principle of constructing a heterogeneous dynamic model are given. A block diagram of a heterogeneous biological and economic system is under construction. The scenario of temporal development of the system is described. As a result, the model itself is presented in the form of graphs showing time dynamics of the amount of food, fish biomass, and working capital of the peled growing business process.
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Vasylenko, Yuriy. "Overcoming the Inadequacy of Economic Dynamics Models." Ekonomika 101, no. 1 (May 2, 2022): 84–101. http://dx.doi.org/10.15388/ekon.2022.101.1.5.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Known models of economic dynamics are too aggregate, so inadequate to the real economy. The analyst will not be able to identify the real dynamics of the economy among the big mistakes. They have no connection between investments, their efficiency, and the rate of economic growth. There is no transition from the optimal share of savings in the country to the agents’ optimal shares, managing investment sources.To link investment and the pace of economic growth, the author introduced the concept of technical productivity of investments, which measures their ability to change the rate of material or labor costs.Based on the technical productivity of investment, the author has derived the equation (not identity) of economic dynamics.Instead of the highly aggregated models, the author developed an adequate causal simulation model, reflecting the economy as a closed system with positive feedback of the investment from incomes and economic growth from investment. The author determined the dynamics of the Ukrainian economy with different technical productivity of investment on this model.
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Su, Yi Min. "The Research of Urban Development System Model Based on System Dynamics." Advanced Materials Research 926-930 (May 2014): 4394–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.926-930.4394.
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Urban development is the basic condition of human social development, is also an important symbol of human civilization progress. A city of the healthy, harmonious and rapid development not only conducive to the residents to live and work in peace and contentment, but also help to promote the overall social and economic sustainable development. In this paper, the research method of combining the theory research and model, from the point of view of system dynamics analysis of the characteristics of urban development, this paper introduces the knowledge of relevant theory of system dynamics and the basic modeling method, put forward to population, resources and environment of the city's comprehensive development model, the city's planning and construction and management, having great significance.
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Lara, José Edson, Ary Célio Oliveira, Thalles Augusto Tissot-Lara, and Luiz Rodrigo Cunha Moura. "MODEL OF INTEGRAL HEALTH CARE." RAHIS- Revista de Administração Hospitalar e Inovação em Saúde 18, no. 5 (February 13, 2022): 87–102. http://dx.doi.org/10.21450/rahis.v18i5.7373.
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Financial sustainability has been one of the most worrying aspects of health systems, regardless of the country's stage of development. Thus, the purpose of this study is to analyze the value generation (EVA) and the possible cost reductions provided by the adoption of the Primary Health Care (PHC) Model. This is an exploratory and quantitative research with the use of the EVA (Economic Value Added) model and the system dynamics approach. The study connects the System Dynamics framework with the (EVA) to achieve cost savings in (PHC). The main results indicate that the Medical Cooperative was able to generate economic value of R$ 15.8 million in 2018 and the migration of care procedures to the PHC model could reduce costs of about R$ 330 million over a 10-year period. Theoretically, this investigation contributes to the application of a concept to a complex context. Methodologically, the contribution is the applicability of EVA and the use of system dynamics to analyze scenarios. The implementation of the PHC Model represents an important initiative in addressing the enormous management challenges in the area
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Kong, Xiaobing, Lele Ma, Xiangjie Liu, Mohamed Abdelkarim Abdelbaky, and Qian Wu. "Wind Turbine Control Using Nonlinear Economic Model Predictive Control over All Operating Regions." Energies 13, no. 1 (January 1, 2020): 184. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en13010184.
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With the gradual increase in the installed capacity of wind turbines, more and more attention has been paid to the economy of wind power. Economic model-predictive control (EMPC) has been developed as an effective advanced control strategy, which can improve the dynamic economy performance of the system. However, the variable-speed wind turbine (VSWT) system widely used is generally nonlinear and highly coupled nonaffine systems, containing multiple economic terms. Therefore, a nonlinear EMPC strategy considering power maximization and mechanical load minimization is proposed based on the comprehensive VSWT model, including the dynamics of the tower and the gearbox in this paper. Three groups of simulations verify the effectiveness and reliability/practicability of the proposed nonlinear EMPC strategy.
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Li, Jiaorui, and Shuang Li. "Dynamics of a Nonlinear Business Cycle Model Under Poisson White Noise Excitation." Journal of Systems Science and Information 3, no. 2 (April 25, 2015): 176–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/jssi-2015-0176.
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AbstractSeveral observations in real economic systems have shown the evidence of non-Gaussianity behavior, and one of mathematical models to describe these behaviors is Poisson noise. In this paper, stationary probability density of a nonlinear business cycle model under Poisson white noise excitation has been studied analytically. By using the stochastic averaged method, the approximate stationary probability density of the averaged generalized FPK equations are obtained analytically. The results show that the economic system occurs jump and bifurcation when there is a Poisson impulse existing in the periodic economic system. Furthermore, the numerical solutions are presented to show the effectiveness of the obtained analytical solutions.
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Fomin, I. N., T. E. Shulga, and V. A. Ivaschenko. "Synthesis of the Algorithm for Control of the Thermal Power Plant Generating Equipment Based on System Dynamics Models." Mekhatronika, Avtomatizatsiya, Upravlenie 22, no. 1 (January 12, 2021): 20–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.17587/mau.22.20-27.
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The article discusses an original solution for designing an algorithm for selecting the most optimal technical and economic indicators for the operation of generating equipment of thermal power plants, taking into account the requirements of the wholesale electricity market, the day-ahead market and the balancing market. To design an algorithm for controlling generating equipment, the activity of a generating company in the wholesale electricity market was considered in terms of system dynamics. The proposed solution made it possible to select and interpret the state variables of the model, build flow diagrams describing the functioning of a technical-economic system, and visualize cause-and-effect relationships in the form of structured functional dependencies. In this work according to the norms of industry legislation and previously conducted scientific research the most important parameters were identified that form the flows of a dynamic technical and economic system, which are optimization criteria in fact. On the basis of this data, a stream stratification of the production processes of generating companies was carried out and a complex of mathematical models of system dynamics was developed to determine and plan the financial efficiency of the operation of thermal power plants and generating companies. The mathematical apparatus and the algorithm of its functioning are developed on the basis of the digraph of cause-and-effect relationships between the investigated technical and economic indicators. On the basis of the graph of interrelationships of system variables, a system of nonlinear differential equations has been built, which makes it possible to determine planned performance indicators when various technical and economic conditions change. The novelty of the proposed approach is the use of new model solutions based on the mathematical apparatus of system dynamics to represent the proposed model in simulation systems, in industry ERP and MES systems, for the development of DDS.
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Pietroń, Roman. "Demographic and economic aspects of the pension system in Poland — a dynamic modelling approach." Ekonomia 25, no. 4 (January 2, 2020): 9–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.19195/2658-1310.25.4.1.
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Demographic and economic aspects of the pension system in Poland —a dynamic modelling approachThe paper considers a hypothesis that some dynamic features of the Polish national and public pension system follow typical mental, generic and archetypal models, as a result of many demographic, macroeconomic, political and also global factors, particularly closed-loop feedback relations with delays and amplifi cations. There are some important messages in the paper for social insurance policies design, structures and management, the meaning of data mining and collection, and for model refi nement with modelling approaches in a systems’ thinking way. The shortcomings of national social insurance systems in dealing more eff ectively with upstream social insurance risk prevention in the population are systemic and include also a postulate to empower members of the population in order to involve them in their own, entrepreneurial downstream care. The paper contains a system dynamics SD point of view, as a method of macroscopic, continuous simulation modelling, to surface and explain some cycles and discrepancies between demography, policies, as well as the system’s aspects of the national pension system. The conceptual, formal and simulation model presented in the paper, followed by some experiments’ results, applies the SD method approach with causal loop diagrams CLD and stock-and-fl ow diagrams SFD, displaying delays, amplifi cations and structure cycle dynamics in the national pension system. Further research should concentrate on the detailed analysis of additional modelling requirements in order to conduct more profound multi-factor experiments to forecast and evaluate contemporary national politics, and to test some new concepts in social insurance.
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Toroptsev, E. L., A. S. Marakhovskii, and R. R. Duszynski. "The problem of digitalization of the dynamic input-output model." Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice 16, no. 5 (May 28, 2020): 946–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.24891/ea.19.5.946.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Subject. The article addresses the digitalization of the dynamic model of inter industry balance. Objectives. We focus on developing our own statistical research base for input-output analysis, structural forecasting, sustainability, economic dynamics and economic growth. Mathematically, the study is formalized by the Cauchy problem for ordinary differential equations. Methods. The methodology components include theoretical and practical bases of the systems, statistical, input-output, and structural dynamic analysis. Results. Based on official statistics, we solved the problem of digitalization of the dynamic model of input-output balance, written in the form of a system of differential equations. For the first time, this model was transferred from a set of purely theoretical structures to a class of computable models. We developed a sequence of coordinated actions and calculations, which serve as a methodology for the said transfer. We also devised and presented the elements of our own statistical research base. Conclusions. The quantitative measurement of the dynamic inter-industry model in the form of a system of differential equations opens up broad perspectives on the sustainability of macroeconomics, its structural readiness for expanded reproduction, i.e. economic growth. The model can be used both independently and in combination with equilibrium and other agent-oriented models.
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JANUÁRIO, CRISTINA, CLARA GRÁCIO, DIANA A. MENDES, and JORGE DUARTE. "MEASURING AND CONTROLLING THE CHAOTIC MOTION OF PROFITS." International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos 19, no. 11 (November 2009): 3593–604. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s021812740902502x.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The study of economic systems has generated deep interest in exploring the complexity of chaotic motions in economy. Due to important developments in nonlinear dynamics, the last two decades have witnessed strong revival of interest in nonlinear endogenous business chaotic models. The inability to predict the behavior of dynamical systems in the presence of chaos suggests the application of chaos control methods, when we are more interested in obtaining regular behavior. In the present article, we study a specific economic model from the literature. More precisely, a system of three ordinary differential equations gather the variables of profits, reinvestments and financial flow of borrowings in the structure of a firm. Firstly, using results of symbolic dynamics, we characterize the topological entropy and the parameter space ordering of kneading sequences, associated with one-dimensional maps that reproduce significant aspects of the model dynamics. The analysis of the variation of this numerical invariant, in some realistic system parameter region, allows us to quantify and to distinguish different chaotic regimes. Finally, we show that complicated behavior arising from the chaotic firm model can be controlled without changing its original properties and the dynamics can be turned into the desired attracting time periodic motion (a stable steady state or into a regular cycle). The orbit stabilization is illustrated by the application of a feedback control technique initially developed by Romeiras et al. [1992]. This work provides another illustration of how our understanding of economic models can be enhanced by the theoretical and numerical investigation of nonlinear dynamical systems modeled by ordinary differential equations.
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Drmola, Jakub, and Tomas Hubik. "Kessler Syndrome: System Dynamics Model." Space Policy 44-45 (August 2018): 29–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.spacepol.2018.03.003.
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Kryukov, Valery A., Alexandr O. Baranov, Victor N. Pavlov, Victor I. Suslov, and Nikita I. Suslov. "Problems in Developing a Comprehensive Toolkit for Macro-economic, Inter-regional, Inter-sectoral Analysis and Forecasting." Economy of Region 16, no. 4 (December 2020): 1072–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2020-4-5.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The study reviews approaches to macro-economic and macro-territorial modelling presented in international and Russian economic publications. We focus on opportunities to improve forecasting the development of economic system in Russia at the macro-economic, inter-sectoral and inter-regional levels. We described dynamic macro-economic, inter-sectoral and inter- regional models developed in the Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IEIE SB RAS). We analyse more in details three complex models proposed in IEIE SB RAS: CAISI (comprehensive analysis of inter-sectoral information), SRNES (synthesis of regional and national economic systems) and CSNES (coordination of sectoral and national economic solutions). We consider theoretical foundations of the complex models and their application in analysing and forecasting economic system development at various levels. The three complex models are based on different basic models that influence their development. IEIE SB RAS has been developing a two-level system of forecasting models, which combines advantages of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models and dynamic input-output models applied in the CAISI system. The paper describes theoretical foundations of the SRNES system, whose latest versions are premised on the general equilibrium and cooperative games theories. Then, we characterised the most developed elements of the complex model CSNES, which has the CSNES-TEK subsystem used in forecasting developments in the fuel and energy industry of Russia’s territories and SIBARP (balance calculation system for the future). The conclusion outlines directions for further research on improving the methods of macro-economic, inter-regional, and inter-sectoral forecasting based on harmonisation of analytical and forecast calculations performed using the CAISI, SRNES and CSNES systems. The results of forecast calculations using the two-level system of macro-level models can be applied in the complex models SRNES and CSNES to ensure coordination between the forecasts of socio-economic development of the Asian part of Russia and projected dynamics of macro-indicators.
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Kryukov, Valery A., Alexandr O. Baranov, Victor N. Pavlov, Victor I. Suslov, and Nikita I. Suslov. "Problems in Developing a Comprehensive Toolkit for Macro-economic, Inter-regional, Inter-sectoral Analysis and Forecasting." Economy of Region 16, no. 4 (December 2020): 1072–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2020-4-5.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The study reviews approaches to macro-economic and macro-territorial modelling presented in international and Russian economic publications. We focus on opportunities to improve forecasting the development of economic system in Russia at the macro-economic, inter-sectoral and inter-regional levels. We described dynamic macro-economic, inter-sectoral and inter- regional models developed in the Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IEIE SB RAS). We analyse more in details three complex models proposed in IEIE SB RAS: CAISI (comprehensive analysis of inter-sectoral information), SRNES (synthesis of regional and national economic systems) and CSNES (coordination of sectoral and national economic solutions). We consider theoretical foundations of the complex models and their application in analysing and forecasting economic system development at various levels. The three complex models are based on different basic models that influence their development. IEIE SB RAS has been developing a two-level system of forecasting models, which combines advantages of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models and dynamic input-output models applied in the CAISI system. The paper describes theoretical foundations of the SRNES system, whose latest versions are premised on the general equilibrium and cooperative games theories. Then, we characterised the most developed elements of the complex model CSNES, which has the CSNES-TEK subsystem used in forecasting developments in the fuel and energy industry of Russia’s territories and SIBARP (balance calculation system for the future). The conclusion outlines directions for further research on improving the methods of macro-economic, inter-regional, and inter-sectoral forecasting based on harmonisation of analytical and forecast calculations performed using the CAISI, SRNES and CSNES systems. The results of forecast calculations using the two-level system of macro-level models can be applied in the complex models SRNES and CSNES to ensure coordination between the forecasts of socio-economic development of the Asian part of Russia and projected dynamics of macro-indicators.
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Lazarus, E. D., D. E. McNamara, M. D. Smith, S. Gopalakrishnan, and A. B. Murray. "Emergent behavior in a coupled economic and coastline model for beach nourishment." Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 18, no. 6 (December 15, 2011): 989–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/npg-18-989-2011.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract. Developed coastal areas often exhibit a strong systemic coupling between shoreline dynamics and economic dynamics. "Beach nourishment", a common erosion-control practice, involves mechanically depositing sediment from outside the local littoral system onto an actively eroding shoreline to alter shoreline morphology. Natural sediment-transport processes quickly rework the newly engineered beach, causing further changes to the shoreline that in turn affect subsequent beach-nourishment decisions. To the limited extent that this landscape/economic coupling has been considered, evidence suggests that towns tend to employ spatially myopic economic strategies under which individual towns make isolated decisions that do not account for their neighbors. What happens when an optimization strategy that explicitly ignores spatial interactions is incorporated into a physical model that is spatially dynamic? The long-term attractor that develops for the coupled system (the state and behavior to which the system evolves over time) is unclear. We link an economic model, in which town-manager agents choose economically optimal beach-nourishment intervals according to past observations of their immediate shoreline, to a simplified coastal-dynamics model that includes alongshore sediment transport and background erosion (e.g. from sea-level rise). Simulations suggest that feedbacks between these human and natural coastal processes can generate emergent behaviors. When alongshore sediment transport and spatially myopic nourishment decisions are coupled, increases in the rate of sea-level rise can destabilize economically optimal nourishment practices into a regime characterized by the emergence of chaotic shoreline evolution.
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ORRELL, DAVID. "FILTERING CHAOS: A TECHNIQUE TO ESTIMATE DYNAMICAL AND OBSERVATIONAL NOISE IN NONLINEAR SYSTEMS." International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos 15, no. 01 (January 2005): 99–107. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s021812740501203x.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Nonlinear dynamical models are frequently used to approximate and predict observed physical, biological and economic systems. Such models will be subject to errors both in the model dynamics, and the observations of the underlying system. In order to improve models, it is necessary to understand the causes of error growth. A complication with chaotic models is that small errors may be amplified by the model dynamics. This paper proposes a technique for estimating levels of both dynamical and observational noise, based on the model drift. The method is demonstrated for a number of models, for cases with both stochastic and nonstochastic dynamical errors. The effect of smoothing or treating the observations is also considered. It is shown that use of variational smoothing techniques in the presence of dynamical model errors can lead to potentially deceptive patterns of error growth.
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DELFINO, DORIANA, and PETER J. SIMMONS. "Dynamics of tuberculosis and economic growth." Environment and Development Economics 10, no. 6 (November 21, 2005): 719–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1355770x05002500.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
We find significant empirical links between the health structure of the population and the productive system of an economy that is subject to infectious disease, in particular tuberculosis. Consequently, development policy, aimed to improve the level of prosperity, has significant effects on the demographic-epidemiological dynamics of the population. Moreover, infectious diseases, such as tuberculosis, affect the size of the labour force and the productive capacity of the economy. We combine a Lotka-Volterra type system capturing the dynamics of TB epidemics with a Solow-Swan growth model where output is produced from capital and healthy labour. The demographic-epidemological parameters of the Lotka-Volterra type system are functions of GDP per healthy worker. We find significant differences between the most prosperous quartile and the rest of the world. In the former, the disease is eradicated whereas in the lowest three quartiles we predict damped capital and epidemic cycles converging to a population which is about 80 per cent of capacity and of whom about 2 per cent are TB infected. It follows that raising productivity in the lower quartiles is a critical policy aim.
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Wu, Lin. "Low Carbon Economic Mode of Hunan Province Based on System Dynamics." Advanced Materials Research 962-965 (June 2014): 2351–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.962-965.2351.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
System dynamics was used to analyze the Low-carbon economy in Hunan province form the perspective of economic, social, energy and environmental. Based on the analysis of the subsystems characteristics and internal factors affect between the various subsystems constructed Low-carbon economy system dynamics model in Hunan province was build. Constraint and exogenous variables analysis based on the model structure was taken. And from the perspective of economic planning, the policy system of low carbon economy and carbon trading and carbon compensation system, offered proposals for the promotion of Low-carbon economy in Hunan province.
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White, Robin R. "198 Beef cattle support system modeling." Journal of Animal Science 98, Supplement_2 (November 1, 2020): 68–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jas/skz397.160.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract A model is a tool used to study the dynamics of a system when investigations on the system itself are difficult because of scope, scale, sensitivity, or other complexities. Beef cattle production in the United States is at least a 2- to 4-phase process, consisting of economic, social, environmental, and biological relationships. As such, modeling is a logical strategy to handle many research questions focused on systems responses of beef cattle production systems. There are a number of modeling tools that can be used to research beef cattle production settings, including but not limited to: nutrient requirement models, pasture models, farm system models, and life cycle assessments. Life cycle assessments are the broadest category of models and typically fall under the umbrella of static, deterministic, empirical models that encompass the entirety of the beef production system from manufacture of the inputs through production of the outputs. There are a number of life cycle assessments of beef cattle production systems and comparison of the outcome of these models is a strategy to discern how changes in one aspect of the production system affect all downstream processes. Farm system models can assess an individual economic enterprise or an entirety of a beef production system and typically are dynamic, mechanistic models of the interactions between cattle and their external environments. Several researchers have also established deterministic, empirical farm system models, or hybrids of these two model types. Pasture models can be independent of or tightly linked with farm system models. Most pasture models are dynamic, mechanistic models; however, deterministic, empirical models also exist. Pasture models typically seek to model plant/soil/water interactions. Finally, animal response models and nutrient requirement models can be used to represent animal/feed/management interactions. These models can be dynamic or static, deterministic or mechanistic.
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Hamidov, S. I. "Applying Graph Theory to Some Problems of Economic Dynamics." Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society 2019 (June 2, 2019): 1–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/7974381.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This paper studies dynamic models of production and exchange on graph with consideration of transportation costs. Using graph and set of matrices, we introduce superlinear multivalued mappings which describe the exchange ratio in considered system. Effective trajectories of these models are studied. It is shown that trajectories can be constructed using the simplest equilibrium type mechanisms. Characteristics of effective trajectories in Neumann type models are given. Conditions for the existence of equilibrium state of the considered model are found.
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Toroptsev, E. L., and A. S. Marakhovskii. "Analysis of macrostructural dynamics framed by the “input–output” methodology." Journal of the New Economic Association 53, no. 1 (2022): 12–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-53-1-1.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The purpose of this article is to publish the author’s method of the economy structural dynamics formalized analysis based on a dynamic model of input-output balance represented by a system of ordinary differential equations. The model is digitized based on the Rosstat data on the formation of the output of goods and services and elements of its own statistical research base. The methodological components of our work are the provisions of systemic, cross-sectoral and structural dynamic analysis. The presented theoretical and methodological statements, brought to a sequence of verified calculations, exploit the basic dynamic model of inputoutput balance, first published by V.V. Leontief in 1952. For many decades this model remained among so-called “purely theoretical constructions”, since it was never digitized. It was out of many computable models for two reasons: 1) degeneracy of the incremental capital capacities matrix (capital coefficients, as by V.V. Leontief) was believed to be indisputable; 2) the appearance of negative elements in the same matrix when attempting to digitize the model. The results of the work are as follows: the method to digitize the model; the method of numerical assessment of inertia and analysis of structural dynamics in macroeconomics. In a digitized form, the model is made up to solve the structural stability problem, to assess the impact of structural reforms on economic growth, and to analyze the internal / intrinsic dynamic properties of economic systems. This gives possibilities to use this model both independently corresponding to the application, and integrate into the advanced model complexes such as RIM — Russian Interindustry Model by IEF RAS (the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences).
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Kislitsyn, Evgeniy, and Victor Gorodnichev. "Simulation of development of individual heavy industry sectors." Business Informatics 15, no. 1 (March 31, 2021): 59–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.17323/2587-814x.2021.1.59.77.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Nowadays, in the context of the coronavirus crisis, the issue of ensuring the sustainable development of heavy industries is acute. However, theoretical and analytical researches alone are not sufficient for this, and economic science needs to develop fundamentally new approaches to the study of the development of industrial sectors. This article is devoted to the creation and testing of a simulation model for the development of individual sectors of the economy. The object of research is the metallurgical industry, as well as related ore mining, mechanical engineering and production of finished metal products. The theoretical basis of the research is a systematic approach that combines the theory of industry markets, economic growth, industrial economics, system dynamics and mathematical economics. The main research methods used are system analysis, statistical analysis to identify trends in changes in the main economic indicators, econometric modeling to build production functions, as well as mathematical modeling of macroeconomic systems. As a result, a simulation model developed in system dynamics notation is proposed, which makes it possible to evaluate the development of individual industries taking into account various changes. This model is built on the basis of the three-sector model of the national economy, where separate adjacent industries connected by dynamic feedback loops are identified as structural elements. The paper details the structure of the simulation model based on first-order dynamic equations, balance equations and nonlinear production functions. The simulation model allowed us to predict a number of scenarios for the development of metallurgical industries, taking into account changes in the labor force and investment in fixed assets. The results of the work can be used for forming proposals on industrial policy, monitoring the condition and efficiency of individual industries.
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Kirillov, Alexander N., and Alexander M. Sazonov. "The global stability of the Schumpeterian dynamical system." Vestnik of Saint Petersburg University. Applied Mathematics. Computer Science. Control Processes 16, no. 4 (2020): 348–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.21638/11701/spbu10.2020.401.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
In this article, we present the studies that develop Schumpeter’s theory of endogenous evolution of economic systems. An approach to modeling the limitation of economic growth due to the limitation of markets, resource bases and other factors is proposed. For this purpose, the concept of economic niche volume is introduced. The global stability of the equilibrium of the dynamical system with the Jacobi matrix having, at the equilibrium, all eigenvalues equal to zero, except one being negative, is proved. The proposed model makes it possible to evaluate and predict the dynamics of the development of firms in the economic sector.
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Macesic, Stevan, Zeljko Cupic, and Ljiljana Kolar-Anic. "Model of the nonlinear reaction system with autocatalysis and autoinhibition: Stability of dynamic states." Chemical Industry 66, no. 5 (2012): 637–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/hemind120210034m.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Self-regulation, achieved through positive (autocatalytic) or negative (autoinhibitory) feedback is commonly encountered in natural, technological and economic systems. The dynamic behavior of such systems is often complex and cannot be easily predicted, necessitating mathematical modelling and theoretical analyses. The aim of this work is to analyze the dynamics of a minimal model system with autocatalytic and autoinhibitory steps coupled through the same species, in order to understand under which critical condition the system loses stability and passes through an Andronov-Hopf bifurcation. The analysis used was improved stoichiometric network analysis (SNA) in combination with bifurcation and sensitivity analysis.
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Yuan, Jing Han. "Dynamic Model and its Application in Economic Forecasting." Applied Mechanics and Materials 568-570 (June 2014): 1964–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.568-570.1964.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The economic system is an extremely complex system, internal systems affected by many factors, highly nonlinear, time delay and other characteristics. This has brought great difficulties to the economic modeling and forecasting system. This paper presents an improved modeling and forecasting methods, recombinant methods by introducing chain data and add data growth economic indicators in an artificial neural network training, the time series data input window to solve practical engineering problems forecasts.
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Santos, Nayara Teixeira, Gisele Tessari Santos, Washington Santos Silva, and Wanyr Romero Ferreira. "A System Dynamics Model for Sales and Operations Planning." International Journal of System Dynamics Applications 9, no. 1 (January 2020): 1–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijsda.2020010101.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The use of system dynamics techniques to model the sales and operations planning (S&OP), associated with the economic and financial processes, is an innovative proposal. The objectives of this article are to model and simulate the S&OP process integrated with the financial management in a Brazilian lime processing industry, based on the system dynamics approach. Initially, the model was validated. Then, over twenty scenarios were simulated to assess the behavior of the system with its key factors variation. In the microenvironment scenarios, the company's internal perspective was the only element taken into account. In turn, regarding the macro environment scenarios, the basis was the projection of lime consumption related to the country's GDP. The results have genuinely contributed to the industry researched, since the lime processing industry is struggling with obtaining enough supply due to lime acquisition price fluctuations and, consequently, the oscillation of its production costs.
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NIU, HONG, and QINGLING ZHANG. "GENERALIZED PREDICTIVE CONTROL FOR DIFFERENCE-ALGEBRAIC BIOLOGICAL ECONOMIC SYSTEMS." International Journal of Biomathematics 06, no. 06 (November 2013): 1350037. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s179352451350037x.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
In this paper, a nonlinear difference-algebraic system is used to model some populations with stage structure when the harvest behavior and the economic interest are considered. The stability analysis is studied at the equilibrium points. After the nonlinear difference-algebraic system is changed into a linear system with the unmodeled dynamics, a generalized predictive controller with feedforward compensator is designed to stabilize the system. Adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is used to make the unmodeled dynamic compensated. An example illustrates the effectiveness of the proposed control method.
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Rubio-Martin, Adria, Manuel Pulido-Velazquez, Hector Macian-Sorribes, and Alberto Garcia-Prats. "System Dynamics Modeling for Supporting Drought-Oriented Management of the Jucar River System, Spain." Water 12, no. 5 (May 15, 2020): 1407. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12051407.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The management of water in systems where the balance between resources and demands is already precarious can pose a challenge and it can be easily disrupted by drought episodes. Anticipated drought management has proved to be one of the main strategies to reduce their impact. Drought economic, environmental, and social impacts affect different sectors that are often interconnected. There is a need for water management models able to acknowledge the complex interactions between multiple sectors, activities, and variables to study the response of water resource systems to drought management strategies. System dynamics (SD) is a modeling methodology that facilitates the analysis of interactions and feedbacks within and between sectors. Although SD has been applied for water resource management, there is a lack of SD models able to regulate complex water resource systems on a monthly time scale and considering multiple reservoir operating rules, demands, and policies. In this paper, we present an SD model for the strategic planning of drought management in the Jucar River system, incorporating dynamic reservoir operating rules, policies, and drought management strategies triggered by a system state index. The DSS combines features from early warning and information systems, allowing for the simulation of drought strategies, evaluating their economic impact, and exploring new management options in the same environment. The results for the historical period show that drought early management can be beneficial for the performance of the system, monitoring the current state of the system, and activating drought management measures results in a substantial reduction of the economic impact of droughts.
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Oh, Sanghyun, Yoo S. Hong, Jihwan Lee, and Yong Se Kim. "AN EVALUATION METHOD FOR BUSINESS MODELS IN PRODUCT-SERVICE SYSTEMS DESIGN." Proceedings of the Design Society 1 (July 27, 2021): 427–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/pds.2021.43.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
AbstractTo pursue business innovation with PSS, many different PSS concepts are designed and evaluated. Various business models of a PSS design concept are devised and evaluated as well. Evaluation of the economic sustainability of PSS business models is critical. This paper presents a systematic method to evaluate the economic sustainability of PSS business models using a system dynamics modelling template. System dynamics modelling task is challenging for practitioners due to the variety of variables comprising business model strategies and their complex interrelationships. To enable the modelling task, a system dynamics modelling template composed of six modules of customer acquisition, channel acquisition, profit creation, resource acquisition, PSS provision, and partnership pattern has been devised. The PSS business model evaluation method has been illustrated using a smart study experience management service system design case to demonstrate the proposed system dynamics modelling template can reflect the case-specific business model which consists of the particular business model strategies.
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Pasqualino, Roberto, Melissa Demartini, and Faezeh Bagheri. "Digital Transformation and Sustainable Oriented Innovation: A System Transition Model for Socio-Economic Scenario Analysis." Sustainability 13, no. 21 (October 20, 2021): 11564. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su132111564.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Sustainability and digitalization are essential duties for companies to perform in the current socio-economic landscape due to risks caused by traditional manufacturing practices, and rules imposed by stakeholders and governments. Tools that help exploring uncertain future scenarios to address such a complex challenge are of vital importance for both businesses, governments, and financial institutions. This paper presents the IN4.0-SD, a novel system dynamics model to capture the dynamic interplay of industrial innovation, inequality, and inflation. The IN4.0-SD is a closed-economy System Dynamics model composed of three agents: sustainable oriented innovation business (SOIB), digital asset supplier business (DASB), and household. DASB and SOIB are both assumed to supply one product to the economy and fundamentally differ among each other in their business models. While the sustainable oriented innovation business produces and sells capital goods making revenue out of sales, digital asset supplier detaches the concept of production from sales moving toward an intangible economy, charging for a fee licence of their tools that can be distributed via a network economy. Simulations show the level of flexibility of the model in addressing a variety of scenarios, playing at the threshold of technology development, inequality rise, massive unemployment and providing an archetype for sustainable oriented innovation and digital transformation models. The findings suggested by the model analysis are used to infer conclusions for the wider society, including implications for sustainable oriented businesses and digital transformation. These are confirmed by previous studies, around the overall trend in wealth creation for large technology firms’ owners, potential impact for employment in the digital economy, and transformation for the labour market.
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Averchenkova, Elena E., Andrey V. Averchenkov, Tatyana M. Gerashchenkova, and Vitaly M. Skantsev. "A model for analysis of the external environment of the regional socio-economic system using measuring devices." Informatization and communication 4 (November 2020): 120–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.34219/2078-8320-2020-11-4-120-127.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The understanding of the control system of the regional socio-economic system in the context of the methodological analysis of the external environment with the help of measuring devices is presented. A model of the measuring device “Expert assessments of the impact of the external environment on the regional socio-economic system” is proposed, which evaluates the nature of the influence of disturbances in the external environment on the regional socio-economic system and is described by the concepts and techniques of the theory of expert assessments and fuzzy logic. The model of the measuring device “Monitoring the external environment of the regional socio-economic system” conducts a study of the state of the external environment on the basis of regularly repeating aggregating and analytical actions to collect and process relevant regional socio-economic information. The model of the measuring device “Dynamics of indicators of socio-economic development of the regional socio-economic system” analyzes the dynamics of indicators of socio-economic development of the RSES on the basis of open statistical information. The presented models of measuring devices make it possible to analyze the external environment of the regional socio-economic system.
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Qi, Ji, Zhong Yi Zheng, and Jian Min Li. "Risk Mutability Analysis and Pre-Control of Dynamical System." Applied Mechanics and Materials 533 (February 2014): 360–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.533.360.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Based on systematical research on catastrophe theory, system dynamics is a general theory to describe dynamical systems with the goal of achieving structural stability and dynamic stability. In this paper, catastrophe model of dynamic system is established and elements of the system are defined as well. Conditions for system structure mutating are also defined via analysis on dynamism, fuzziness and mutability of system structure. In view of the fact that modes and strength of disturbance or damage to system structural stability are two decisive factors for major accident occurrence and consequences, the course of disturbance or damage can be deemed as the process of quantitative evaluation of major accident risks. Hence, by adopting combination of qualitative and quantitative methods and with the help of simulation technology, decision-makers can do researches on engineering, social and economic systems to make scientific and effective pre-control.