Добірка наукової літератури з теми "Long-Term sustainable behaviour"

ObjectiveInteractive interventions are increasingly advocated to support behavior change for patients who have long-term conditions. Such interventions are most likely to achieve behavior change when they are based on appropriate theoretical frameworks. Developers of interventions are faced with a diverse set of behavioral theories that do not specifically address intervention development. The aim of our work was to develop a framework to guide the developers of interactive healthcare interventions that was derived from relevant theory, and which guided developers towards appropriate behavior change techniques.MethodsWe reviewed theories that inform behavior change interventions, where relevant to the management of long-term conditions. Theoretical constructs and behavior change techniques were grouped according to similarity in aims.ResultsWe developed a logic model that operationalizes behavior change theories and techniques into five steps likely to lead to sustained behavior change. The steps are: 1) create awareness of need; 2) facilitate learning; 3) enhance motivation; 4) prompt behaviour change; and 5) ensure sustainability of behaviour change.Conclusion and Practice implicationsA framework that sequences behavioural change techniques along a sustainability model provides a practical template for the developers of interactive healthcare applications and interventions.

This review provides a comprehensive discussion on the long-term durability performance and degradation behaviour of the increasingly popular sustainable biobased composites under various aging environments.

As the most significant portion of a garment’s ecological footprint stems from its use, clothing users play a pivotal role in extending the clothing lifespan by way of their wear, care and repair habits. Despite the fashion industry’s slow progress towards sustainability, clothing users have autonomy to shape their practice, which holds promise for reducing environmental impacts. There is a need to explore more critically various practices such as wear, care and repair habits that contribute to longevity within the consumer’s sphere of influence. Likewise, there is a need to transform educational perspectives in the field of sustainable consumption, as increased knowledge alone has been found insufficient to drive behavioural change. This study investigates the impact of short-term behavioural modification challenges (the ‘short game’) on users’ long-term consumption behaviour (the ‘long game’). Through a case study involving young female university students, this study characterizes the implementation of a lifestyle change towards sustainable clothing use practice and highlights its effects on long-term behaviour. This case illustrates an educational intervention that employed cognitive (head), affective (heart) and practical (hands) learning activities to advance specific competencies associated with sustainable consumption in the context of clothing use behaviours. The study provides a window into the logistical challenges, emotional longings and social pressures that young consumers must invariably reconcile to remain motivated and persist in the ‘long game’ of clothing longevity. By focusing learners’ attention on clothing use behaviours and providing some supportive conditions, young consumers can make meaningful and lasting changes to their practice.

The digitalisation of services is a process that is gaining traction worldwide owing to the numerous benefits that it provides to sellers and consumers. This study aimed to explore the impact of e-marketing factors for agricultural products on the sustainable consumer behaviour. The technology acceptance model (TAM) and the extended unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT2) model were used to investigate the factors that trigger long-term behavioural changes towards more sustainable consumer behaviour. Trust and continuance intention (CI) constitute sustainable consumer behaviours. The survey-based data were collected from 172 farmers in and around the Al-Baha province of Saudi Arabia. The findings reveal that, out of the six factors, social influence (SI), hedonic motives (HM), and perceived risk (PR) had a significant impact on trust whereas the perceived usefulness (PU), information quality (IQ), and the perceived ease of use (PEOU) had an insignificant impact on trust. Trust appears to had a substantial positive impact on the development of CI. Furthermore, the significant moderation of age and the insignificant moderation of education are observed among trust–CI relationship. Therefore, policymakers should concentrate on the factors such as SI and decrease the factors that are related to the PR in order to achieve a higher level of trust. This study contributes to the literature on e-marketing of agricultural products resulting in the formation of CI that triggers long-term behavioural changes towards more sustainable consumer behaviour.

Considering the short- and long-term equilibrium between indices, the present article analyses the relationship of two segments of stock markets: environmentally sustainable investment and traditional indices. We used Johansen cointegration tests and a multivariate model of conditioned heteroscedasticity on seven stock indices: five corresponding to segments of environmental investment, namely, regarding alternative energy, clean technology, green building, sustainable water, and pollution prevention, and two indices representative of traditional stock market segments, whose philosophy is based on a purely financial logic. The period considered was 8 years. Our result shows that in the long term, the pattern of behaviour of environmental indices differed from traditional indices, and no equilibrium relationships were identified. In the short term, the two groups of indices reported very similar behaviour, with the daily dynamics being determined fundamentally by cross-market factors.

The importance of studying the aspects related to the sustainable food consumption behaviour of students lies in the fact that, at this age, they begin to develop certain consumption patterns that will have long-term effects. The study aimed to identify the type of eating behaviour—sustainable vs. unsustainable—and the socio-demographic factors that influence it, among students in Romania, Bulgaria, and Moldova. The research method was a survey based on a questionnaire administered to a sample of 2378 subjects in the 2017–2018 period. The ANOVA test and simple linear regression were used to identify the correlation between the various variables analysed. The results indicate both positive aspects, which characterise a sustainable diet—high consumption of fruits and vegetables, and negative—the adoption of a mixed diet, which will have a long-term impact on the environment. Age is a good predictor of unhealthy eating habits among students, as this behaviour leads to weight gain. Gender, number of household members, rural/urban and country residence are also influencing factors for food consumption behaviour. Eating while standing and having the last meal of the day after 23:00 are practices that also have negative consequences for health. Conducting campaigns to educate students on the adoption of sustainable food consumption is necessary for all three countries to empower them to choose a healthy lifestyle.

Corporates and consumers are aware of the environmental consequences of consumption. However, forty per cent of environmental degradation is known to have been caused by human consumption behaviour while marketing has been blamed for promoting materialism (irresponsible consumption). Literature suggests that adopting responsible marketing strategies would not only promote responsible consumption (Abutaleb & El-Bassiouny, 2020) but also build long-term competitive advantage (Agrawal, Kumar, & Rahman, 2017) and help companies financially (Eccles, Ioannou, & Serafeim, 2011). Building responsible marketing strategies would, however, require changes at both, the organisational and the marketing level (Rudwaska, 2019). This paper, using a theory-building methodology, proposes a framework that identifies the organisational values (necessary condition) and the responsible marketer’s role (sufficient condition) for responsible marketing that ensures responsible consumer behaviour for all the different stages of the marketing planning process. Themes from papers presented in an International Conference on Responsible Marketing were analysed to suggest how corporates could develop responsible marketing strategies and promote responsible consumption. Applicability, limitations, and areas for future research are identified.

The quest to foster sustainable forest management (SFM) in the era of sustainable development goals has reignited the debate on forest tenure concerns. Land and forest tenure insecurity has remained a major underlying cause of deforestation in Africa, which suggests that addressing tenure issues could effectively foster sustainable forest management. Adopting theoretical literature and drawing lessons from related empirical works, this study examines the role of land and forest tenure in sustainable forest management drive. Among other things, the study discusses how land tenure promotes or inhibits sustainable forest practices. The study outlines how frustrating tenure regimes deprive the community of the needed benefits and subsequent untoward behaviour unleashed on forests. The study concludes that the idea of tenure rights and tenure security has implications on sustainable forest management and admonishes a robust tenure regime that upholds local 'people's access to and usage of forest resources without sinister machinations and subjugation of local people. The study contends that determined rights and their long-term security remain crucial in attracting the tenure holders to make a strenuous investment in SFM since investments in forestry usually are made for the long term. Among other things, the study recommends for clarity and long-term security of ownership and tenure rights regarding forest products; a need to promote capacity-building for administrators and rights holders to adopt a sustainable mindset in their exploitation of timber products; and a need to foster stakeholder participation.

The sustainable management of fishery resources in the Pacific region will greatly influence the long-term development of many Melanesian nations. This article will demonstrate that the incorporation of a rights-based approach to fisheries governance would facilitate the achievement of conservation objectives by encouraging sustainable behaviour amongst fishing communities. The significant role of legal stewardship will be highlighted thus emphasising the importance of robust law for both sustainability and human rights.

Background The marine sponge Crambe crambe was chosen as an experimental model of sustainable shallow-water mariculture in the Sardinian Sea (Western Mediterranean) to provide biomass with high potential in applied research. Methods Explants were cultured in four long-term experiments (19 and 31 months at ca. 2.5 m depth), to determine the suitability of new culture techniques by testing substrata and seeding time (season), and monitoring survival and growth. Explants were excised and grown in an experimental plant close to the wild donor sponge population. Percentage growth rate (GR%) was measured in terms of surface cover area, and explant survival was monitored in situ by means of a digital photo camera. Results Explant survival was high throughout the trial, ranging from 78.57% to 92.85% on travertine tiles and from 50% to 71.42% on oyster shells. A few instances of sponge regression were observed. Explant cover area correlated positively with season on two substrata, i.e., tiles and shells. The surface cover area and GR% of explants were measured in the starting phase and monitored up to the end of the trial. High GR% values were observed both on tiles (>21%) and on oyster shells (>15%). Discussion The data on the behaviour and life-style of cultured fragments, together with an increase >2,400% in cover area, demonstrate that in situ aquaculture is a viable and sustainable method for the shallow-water biomass supply of Crambe crambe.

This thesis brings together two responses to the question ‘how can the law extend the timeframe for environmentally relevant decision-making?’ The first response is drawn from the context of institutional investment, and addresses the timeframe and breadth of environmental considerations in pension fund investment decision-making. The second response is related to the context of public environmental decision-making by legislators, the judiciary, and administrators. Three themes underlie and bind the thesis: the challenges to decision-making posed by the particular temporal and spatial characteristics of environmental problems, the existence and effects of short-termism in a variety of contexts, and the legal notion of the trust as a means for analysing and addressing problems of a long-term or intergenerational nature. These themes are borne out in each of the four substantive chapters. Chapter III sets out to demonstrate the theoretical potential of pension funds to drive the reduction of firms’ environmental impact, and, focusing particularly on the notion of fiduciary duty, explores the barriers that stand in their way. Chapter IV provides a practical application of the theoretical recommendations outlined in its predecessor. It provides a framework outlining how pension funds might implement a longer term, more sustainable approach to investing. The second half of the thesis, operating in the context of public environmental decision-making, is centred upon a particularly poignant legal notion with respect to the environment and time: the concept of intergenerational equity. Just as the first half of the thesis deals with the timeframes relevant to investment decision-making by pension funds within the bounds of fiduciary duty, largely a private law affair with public implications, the second half of the thesis is concerned with the principle of intergenerational equity as a means for extending the decision-making timeframe of legislative, judicial and administrative decision-makers. As previous analyses of the concept of intergenerational equity provide little insight into its practical implications when applied to particular factual situation, Chapter V sets out the structure of the principle of intergenerational equity as revealed by case law. Chapter VI brings together the issues from the first three papers by conceptualising intergenerational equity in resource management as an issue of long-term investment. Long-term environmental decision-making faces many obstacles. Individual behavioural biases, short-term financial incentive structures, the myopic pressures of the electoral cycle and the tendency of the common law to reinforce the (often shorttermist) status quo all present significant barriers to the capacity of both private and public decision-makers to act in ways that favour the longer term interests of the environment. Nonetheless, this thesis argues that there is reason for hope: drawing upon the three themes that underlie all of the substantive Chapters, it articulates potential legislative changes and recommends the adoption of particular governance structures to overcome barriers to long-term environmental decision-making.

L'impact non négligeable de l'action de l'homme sur le changement climatique rend plus que nécessaire l'adoption de comportements pro-environnementaux. Une partie de la population s'engage déjà dans des comportements responsables mais de nombreux freins empêchent encore l'action climatique. Cela est d'autant plus vrai dans le contexte touristique, alors que la période de vacances entraine une dégradation des comportements pro-environnementaux. La littérature dédiée à la consommation responsable peine à mettre en évidence une approche efficace pouvant conduire à des comportements vertueux pérennes. Toutefois, la littérature dédiée au tourisme transformationnel affirme le pouvoir de l'expérience touristique pour encourager des transformations individuelles. Afin de compléter les travaux existants, ce travail doctoral repose sur l'hypothèse que des pratiques expérimentées lors d'une expérience touristique pourraient être reproduites dans le quotidien et engendrer des comportements pro-environnementaux. Une collecte de données longitudinale et multiméthodes menée auprès de dix-neufs répondants réalisant une itinérance pédestre sur un chemin de Compostelle constitue notre matériau empirique. Nos résultats enrichissent d'abord la compréhension du processus holistique de transformation dans le cadre d'une itinérance pédestre à travers la construction d'un modèle conceptuel explorant les dynamiques de ce processus, les facteurs déclencheurs ainsi que les types et la durée de ces transformations. Nos résultats identifient par ailleurs que la confrontation avec des pratiques frugales au coeur de l'itinérance pédestre déclenche l'adoption de pratiques pro-environnementales pérennes dans le quotidien, grâce à un mécanisme de transférabilité déclinable qui favorise la transposition et le maintien de pratiques frugales des vacances vers le quotidien. Ces résultats permettent à la fois de contribuer aux littératures dédiées au tourisme transformationnel et à l'adoption de comportements pro-environnementaux mais aussi d'apporter des contributions méthodologiques pertinentes. Notre recherche possède par ailleurs un impact managérial et sociétal notable puisque nos recommandations invitent les acteurs touristiques à concevoir des activités autour de la frugalité afin d'engager les clientèles touristiques à reproduire ces comportements plus raisonnés dans leur quotidien, contribuant ainsi à l'effort collectif de sobriété.Mots-clés : comportements pro-environnementaux durables, tourisme transformationnel, pratiques frugales, transférabilité, étude longitudinale
Encouraging pro-environmental behaviours is deeply needed due to the significant impact of human activity on climate change. Part of the population is already engaged in virtuous behaviours, but many obstacles are still preventing climate action. It is even more significant in a tourism context since pro-environmental behaviours tend to fade during holidays. Researchers are still struggling to identify an effective approach that could lead to long-term responsible behaviours. However, the literature dedicated to transformative tourism highlights the power of the tourism experience to encourage individual transformations. To broaden existing research, this doctoral work suggests that practices experienced during a tourism activity could be transferred to everyday life and foster pro-environmental behaviours. Our empirical material is based on a longitudinal and multi-method data collection from nineteen respondents who walked several days on the Camino de Compostela. Our results first enrich the understanding of the holistic process of transformation in the context of a pedestrian itinerancy through the construction of a conceptual model exploring the dynamics of this process, the triggering factors as well as the types and duration of transformations. Our results also identify that confrontation with frugal practices during pedestrian itinerancy triggers the adoption of long-term pro-environmental practices thanks to a mechanism of transferability that encourages the transposition of frugal practices from holidays to everyday life. These results not only contribute to the literature on transformative tourism and the adoption of pro-environmental behaviours, but also make relevant methodological contributions. Our research also has a significant managerial and social impact since we invite tourism stakeholders to design frugal activities that could convince tourists to adopt more sustainable behaviours in their daily lives. This would contribute to the collective effort towards sobriety.Key words : long-term sustainable behaviour, transformative tourism, frugal practices, transferability, longitudinal study

Awards are non-material and symbolic rewards, and do not necessarily have to go with money. Award givers may emit signals of quality, of intent, and of their beliefs. Managers can use the signalling functions of awards to subtly steer the behaviour of (present and future) employees, without having to recur to control through explicit, conditional incentives. Awards can also give rise to signalling failures. They have to be used with moderation, and they can rarely be substituted for money where money is already in place. If well designed, awards can raise intrinsic motivation, as the recipients are explicitly lauded when they receive the award. In comparison to money, awards tend to raise loyalty to the giver and avoid crowding out intrinsic motivation; moreover, they have a more sustainable effect on behaviour. They also remain visible in the future, creating a trophy value that maintains the awards’ salience and their signalling functions even over the medium and long term.

The aim of this book is to present the most important issues related to sustainable development (SD) and corporate social responsibility (CSR). They are discussed from a macro and micro perspective, both in the form of theoretical foundations of these concepts and practical examples of companies operating in Central and Eastern European countries that have implemented these ideas in their daily operations and translated them into corporate and functional strategies. The book consists of four parts. The first one is theoretical in its assumptions and is devoted to explaining the key concepts of sustainable development (SD) and corporate social responsibility (CSR). The authors describe the determinants of sustainable development in the contemporary world, including the most important ones, such as globalization, climate change, poverty, unlimited consumption, as well as limited access to natural resources - all in relation to the goals of sustainable development. The chapter also discusses the concept of corporate social responsibility (CSR), which is now recognized as the process by which business contributes to the implementation of sustainable development. How sustainable development (SD) and corporate social responsibility (CSR) are incorporated into the organization's strategies and influence the corporate strategy on the corporate and functional areas of the organization is presented in the last chapter of the first part of the e-book. The next part of the e-book helps readers understand the concepts of SD and CSR in the field of organizational strategy - in strategic management, and at the level of functional strategies—marketing, human resources, marketing research, accounting and operational management. The authors explain the reasons why companies need to consider the local and global perspective when setting SDGs, and the existence of potential conflicts within them. Taking into account the area of ​​marketing, the authors point to the increase in environmental and social awareness of all stakeholders, which translates into changes in the criteria for decision-making by managers and risk assessment. The issue of sustainability is also the subject of market research. Companies producing products and services, institutions dealing with environmental or consumer protection, scientists and students conduct many research projects related to, inter alia, much more. How to use secondary data for analysis and how to prepare, conduct, analyze and interpret the results of primary research in that area are discussed in detail in the next chapter of this section. The concept of SD also refers to the basic functions of human resource management (HRM)—recruitment, motivation, evaluation and control. They should take into account SD not only for the efficiency of the organization and long-term economic benefits, but also for ethical reasons. Thanks to the SHRM, the awareness and behavior of the entire organization can strongly express sustainable goals in the planning and implementation of the overall corporate strategy. The growing importance of the idea of ​​SD and the concept of CSR also resulted in the need for accounting and finance to develop solutions enabling the provision of information on the methods and results of implementing these concepts in entities operating on the market. This part of the book also examines manufacturing activities in the context of sustainability. As a result, many problems arise: waste of resources, mismanagement, excessive energy consumption, environmental pollution, use of human potential, etc. The chapter presents such concepts as: zero-waste, lean-manufacturing, six-sigma, circular production, design and recycling products in the life cycle as well as ecological and environmentally friendly production. The next two parts of the e-book contain examples of companies from Central and Eastern Europe that used SD goals in their strategies, questions and tasks for readers.

Economy and mankind are inextricably interlinked. Just as the economy or the production of material wealth is unimaginable without a man, so human existence and development are impossible without the wealth created in the economy. Shortly, both the goal and the means of achieving and realization of the economy are still the human resources. People have long ago noticed that it was the economy that created livelihoods, and the delays in their production led to the catastrophic events such as hunger, poverty, civil wars, social upheavals, revolutions, moral degeneration, and more. Therefore, the special interest of people in understanding the regulatory framework of the functioning of the economy has existed and exists in all historical epochs [A. Sisvadze. Economic theory. Part One. 2006y. p. 22]. The system of economic disciplines studies economy or economic activities of a society. All of them are based on science, which is currently called economic theory in the post-socialist space (the science of economics, the principles of economics or modern economics), and in most countries of the world - predominantly in the Greek-Latin manner - economics. The title of the present book is also Modern Economics. Economics (economic theory) is the science that studies the efficient use of limited resources to produce and distribute goods and services in order to satisfy as much as possible the unlimited needs and demands of the society. More simply, economics is the science of choice and how society manages its limited resources. Moreover, it should be emphasized that economics (economic theory) studies only the distribution, exchange and consumption of the economic wealth (food, beverages, clothing, housing, machine tools, computers, services, etc.), the production of which is possible and limited. And the wealth that exists indefinitely: no economic relations are formed in the production and distribution of solar energy, air, and the like. This current book is the second complete updated edition of the challenges of the modern global economy in the context of the coronary crisis, taking into account some of the priority directions of the country's development. Its purpose is to help students and interested readers gain a thorough knowledge of economics and show them how this knowledge can be applied pragmatically (professionally) in professional activities or in everyday life. To achieve this goal, this textbook, which consists of two parts and tests, discusses in simple and clear language issues such as: the essence of economics as a science, reasons for origin, purpose, tasks, usefulness and functions; Basic principles, problems and peculiarities of economics in different economic systems; Needs and demand, the essence of economic resources, types and limitations; Interaction, mobility, interchangeability and efficient use of economic resources. The essence and types of wealth; The essence, types and models of the economic system; The interaction of households and firms in the market of resources and products; Market mechanism and its elements - demand, supply and price; Demand and supply elasticity; Production costs and the ways to reduce them; Forms of the market - perfect and incomplete competition markets and their peculiarities; Markets for Production Factors and factor incomes; The essence of macroeconomics, causes and importance of origin; The essence and calculation of key macroeconomic indicators (gross national product, gross domestic product, net national product, national income, etc.); Macroeconomic stability and instability, unemployment, inflation and anti-inflationary policies; State regulation of the economy and economic policy; Monetary and fiscal policy; Income and standard of living; Economic Growth; The Corona Pandemic as a Defect and Effect of Globalization; National Economic Problems and New Opportunities for Development in the conditions of the Coronary Crisis; The Socio-economic problems of moral obsolescence in digital technologies; Education and creativity are the main solution way to overcome the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus; Positive and negative effects of tourism in Georgia; Formation of the middle class as a contributing factor to the development of tourism in Georgia; Corporate culture in Georgian travel companies, etc. The axiomatic truth is that economics is the union of people in constant interaction. Given that the behavior of the economy reflects the behavior of the people who make up the economy, after clarifying the essence of the economy, we move on to the analysis of the four principles of individual decision-making. Furtermore, the book describes how people make independent decisions. The key to making an individual decision is that people have to choose from alternative options, that the value of any action is measured by the value of what must be given or what must be given up to get something, that the rational, smart people make decisions based on the comparison of the marginal costs and marginal returns (benefits), and that people behave accordingly to stimuli. Afterwards, the need for human interaction is then analyzed and substantiated. If a person is isolated, he will have to take care of his own food, clothes, shoes, his own house and so on. In the case of such a closed economy and universalization of labor, firstly, its productivity will be low and, secondly, it will be able to consume only what it produces. It is clear that human productivity will be higher and more profitable as a result of labor specialization and the opportunity to trade with others. Indeed, trade allows each person to specialize, to engage in the activities that are most successful, be it agriculture, sewing or construction, and to buy more diverse goods and services from others at a relatively lower price. The key to such human interactions is that trade is mutually beneficial; That markets are usually the good means of coordination between people and that the government can improve the results of market functioning if the market reveals weakness or the results of market functioning are not fair. Moroever, it also shows how the economy works as a whole. In particular, it is argued that productivity is a key determinant of living standards, that an increase in the money supply is a major source of inflation, and that one of the main impediments to avoiding inflation is the existence of an alternative between inflation and unemployment in the short term, that the inflation decrease causes the temporary decline in unemployement and vice versa. The Understanding creatively of all above mentioned issues, we think, will help the reader to develop market economy-appropriate thinking and rational economic-commercial-financial behaviors, to be more competitive in the domestic and international labor markets, and thus to ensure both their own prosperity and the functioning of the country's economy. How he/she copes with the tasks, it is up to the individual reader to decide. At the same time, we will receive all the smart useful advices with a sense of gratitude and will take it into account in the further work. We also would like to thank the editor and reviewers of the books. Finally, there are many things changing, so it is very important to realize that the XXI century has come: 1. The century of the new economy; 2. Age of Knowledge; 3. Age of Information and economic activities are changing in term of innovations. 1. Why is the 21st century the century of the new economy? Because for this period the economic resources, especially non-productive, non-recoverable ones (oil, natural gas, coal, etc.) are becoming increasingly limited. According to the World Energy Council, there are currently 43 years of gas and oil reserves left in the world (see “New Commersant 2007 # 2, p. 16). Under such conditions, sustainable growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) and maximum satisfaction of uncertain needs should be achieved not through the use of more land, labor and capital (extensification), but through more efficient use of available resources (intensification) or innovative economy. And economics, as it was said, is the science of finding the ways about the more effective usage of the limited resources. At the same time, with the sustainable growth and development of the economy, the present needs must be met in a way that does not deprive future generations of the opportunity to meet their needs; 2. Why is the 21st century the age of knowledge? Because in a modern economy, it is not land (natural resources), labor and capital that is crucial, but knowledge. Modern production, its factors and products are not time-consuming and capital-intensive, but science-intensive, knowledge-intensive. The good example of this is a Japanese enterprise (firm) where the production process is going on but people are almost invisible, also, the result of such production (Japanese product) is a miniature or a sample of how to get the maximum result at the lowest cost; 3. Why is the 21st century the age of information? Because the efficient functioning of the modern economy, the effective organization of the material and personal factors of production largely depend on the right governance decision. The right governance decision requires prompt and accurate information. Gone are the days when the main means of transport was a sailing ship, the main form of data processing was pencil and paper, and the main means of transmitting information was sending letters through a postman on horseback. By the modern transport infrastructure (highways, railways, ships, regular domestic and international flights, oil and gas pipelines, etc.), the movement of goods, services and labor resoucres has been significantly accelerated, while through the modern means of communication (mobile phone, internet, other) the information is spreading rapidly globally, which seems to have "shrunk" the world and made it a single large country. The Authors of the book: Ushangi Samadashvili, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University - Introduction, Chapters - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11,12, 15,16, 17.1,18 , Tests, Revaz Shengelia, Doctor of Economics, Professor of Georgian Technical University, Chapters_7, 8, 13. 14, 17.2, 17.4; Zhuzhuna Tsiklauri - Doctor of Economics, Professor of Georgian Technical University - Chapters 13.6, 13.7,17.2, 17.3, 18. We also thank the editor and reviewers of the book.

AbstractThe combination of freight transport and mobility—also known as cargo-hitching—is a form of delivery that has been implemented in various modes of transport. This concept is already widely used in Europe, Africa and North America in long-distance bus transport and ensures parcel delivery via the cargo compartment of long-distance buses. This paper aims to investigate the acceptance of cargo-hitching in long-distance bus transport in Germany. For this purpose, first the term cargo-hitching is defined, and an overview of cargo-hitching concepts in long-distance bus transport worldwide is given. In the following, the principles of attitudinal acceptance are explained. A modified version of the UTAUT2 model was used as the basis for an empirical study in the form of a quantitative online survey (n = 245). The results provide information about factors influencing acceptance as well as wishes and requirements of potential users. Parts of the UTAUT2 model were verified by regression analysis. It was shown that the variables’ habit, price value, hedonic motivation, performance expectancy and social influence predict the behavioural intention to use cargo-hitching in our sample significantly (p < 0.05). Furthermore, risks, benefits and willingness to pay were determined, which could contribute to the development of a business model. These included measures to improve transparency, security and information flow of the cargo-hitching process.

Digital twins have attracted much of the attention from the researchers and policy makers as a potent industry-agnostic concept to support ambitious decarbonization goals. Consequently, much of the latest research has focused on computational methods for building and connecting digital twins to monitor and measure energy consumption and resulting emissions from buildings. At the same time, it has been recognized that achieving a truly sustainable built environment goes beyond environmental sustainability and is much more complex, calling for approaches that transcend any single discipline. Initiatives such as the National Digital Twin in the UK and globally, begin to offer a long-term vision of interconnected, purpose-driven and outcome-focused digital twins, grounded in systems thinking. Such approaches recognize the economic, social and ecological layers as critical data components in these digital ecosystems for understanding the built environment as a whole. Yet, social and ecological sustainability will remain difficult to address without involving allied disciplines and those from the realms of sociology, ecology, or anthropology in a conversation about the critical data sitting at the intersections between human behavior and technological innovation. In this paper, we review and discuss the state of the art research on digital twins to identify the disciplines dominating the narrative in the context of a sustainable built environment. We unpack a techno-rationalist view that emphasizes the sole reliance on technology for problem-solving and argue that by going beyond energy consumption and carbon emissions, digital twins can facilitate a more nuanced assessment of sustainability challenges, encompassing social equity, cultural preservation, and ecological resilience

Digital twins have attracted much of the attention from the researchers and policy makers as a potent industry-agnostic concept to support ambitious decarbonization goals. Consequently, much of the latest research has focused on computational methods for building and connecting digital twins to monitor and measure energy consumption and resulting emissions from buildings. At the same time, it has been recognized that achieving a truly sustainable built environment goes beyond environmental sustainability and is much more complex, calling for approaches that transcend any single discipline. Initiatives such as the National Digital Twin in the UK and globally, begin to offer a long-term vision of interconnected, purpose-driven and outcome-focused digital twins, grounded in systems thinking. Such approaches recognize the economic, social and ecological layers as critical data components in these digital ecosystems for understanding the built environment as a whole. Yet, social and ecological sustainability will remain difficult to address without involving allied disciplines and those from the realms of sociology, ecology, or anthropology in a conversation about the critical data sitting at the intersections between human behavior and technological innovation. In this paper, we review and discuss the state of the art research on digital twins to identify the disciplines dominating the narrative in the context of a sustainable built environment. We unpack a techno-rationalist view that emphasizes the sole reliance on technology for problem-solving and argue that by going beyond energy consumption and carbon emissions, digital twins can facilitate a more nuanced assessment of sustainability challenges, encompassing social equity, cultural preservation, and ecological resilience

Marketplace ethical behaviour is quite difficult to practice because it stands at cross purposes with commercial objectives. Both companies and consumers look for short term benefits in preference over practices that are sustainable or planet friendly. The thinking that dominates development economics globally is to buy, use and throw. Companies like to launch new products all the time encouraging consumers to buy new and bigger models, packaged attractively, on which margins are higher, throwing away perfectly fine and working products. Ethical behaviour – whether it is sourcing of raw materials to paying workers adequately – entails additional costs and efforts. Modifying behaviour or inculcating long term thinking is not an easy task. This chapter looks at existing behaviour both of companies and consumers. It also describes ways in which business and government policy needs to change to encourage long-term thinking in society to change lifestyles across the board.

The concept of sustainability is referred to the basic functions of human resources (HR)— recruitment, motivation, assessment and control. They should embrace sustainability, not just for organisational effectiveness and long-term economic benefits, but also for ethical reasons. Owing to SHRM, the awareness and behaviour of the whole organisation may strongly express SD goals in planning and implementing the whole corporate strategy. Frequently, the term ‘sustainable practices’ in SHRM is congruent with CSR. The main goal of the chapter is to explain how Sustainable Development Goals can be implemented in human resource management (HRM) and translated into sustainable human resource management (SHRM).

<p>Under the appropriate corrosion environment, weathering steel does not require paint, so it has reduced life cycle costs when compared to conventional steel. The applicability of weathering steel has been systematically investigated in countries like Japan and the United States of America. However, in Vietnam, the influence of environmental factors on corrosion behaviour and the applicability of weathering steel has been evaluated by short-term exposure tests. In this study, we performed long-term exposure tests in Vietnam to clarify the time-dependent changes of corrosion behaviour and to verify the applicability of weathering steel. The time-dependent changes of corrosion loss were dependent on the corrosion environment. The corrosion rate greatly increased in areas with high relative humidity. Weathering steel is applicable in various regions in Vietnam, but it should be applied carefully in areas with high relative humidity.</p>

Sustainable behaviour is the basis of social and environmental sustainability. In everyday practice, public facilities can play an important role in promoting such behaviour. Determining how city users understand and use public facilities is crucial to design for sustainability. Drawing on the literature on behavioural change, this study investigates the relationship between design interventions and user behaviour through an analysis of everyday life scenarios in open spaces. Taking public design in Guangzhou, China as a case study, the study examines how intervention strategies affect behaviour through public facilities. We explore how these effects vary with intervention intensity and how city users respond accordingly. The study develops a framework to illustrate the relationship between behaviour change and design intervention, which reveals that changes to user behaviour can be realised through several approaches, depending on the level of intensity of the intervention. The study also analyses each type of intervention based on the dimensions of effectiveness and user acceptance. Finally, from the perspective of inclusiveness, design interventions should be multidimensional and integrated to help achieve long-term sustainability.

<p>The linear and elastic consolidation theory developed by Terzaghi is commonly used for evaluation of consolidation characteristics of fine-grained soils. As several simplifying assumptions have been made in the derivation of Terzaghi’s theory, the application of this theory in many practical problems, especially those involving soft clays, may lead to significant errors. In particular, the assumption of constant value for coefficient of consolidation, &#119862;&#119862;&#119907;&#119907;, during consolidation process is one of the major limitations in Terzaghi’s theory. In this paper, soil sample from the village Sumari near Srinagar Garhwal, Uttarakhand where the permanent campus of NIT Uttarakhand will be constructed has been considered. Finite difference approach is utilized for solving one-dimensional non-linear partial differential equation. Two coefficients {&#119862;&#119862;&#119899;&#119899; and &#120572;&#120572;) are computed to describe changes in soil characteristics and incorporate the changes in &#119862;&#119862;&#119907;&#119907; during consolidation. In order to understand the consolidation behaviour considering variable compressibility a simple problem has been considered. It has been observed that the degree of consolidation is over-estimated on consideration of constant coefficient of consolidation &#119862;&#119862;&#119907;&#119907; and thus may have a substantial impact on the long-term behaviour of the structure resting over ground exhibiting such behaviour.</p>

This paper explores the potential of digital games as a tool for promoting sustainability education. A deductive, qualitative research approach using a descriptive research design was employed, with a focus on document analysis on selected digital games already used in education. The study aims to identify key factors that make digital games effective in teaching sustainable topics and to examine the transferability of skills and experiences from the game to real life. The findings indicate that digital games have the potential to be a valuable tool in promoting sustainability education, providing an engaging, interactive, and effective learning experience. The implications, challenges, and opportunities for games-based sustainability education are discussed. The study concludes that further research is needed to explore the most effective ways of integrating digital games into educational curricula and to assess the long-term impact of digital games on sustainability knowledge and behaviour change.

The concept of circular economy is gaining prominence as a sustainable approach to resource management and environmental protection. According to the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, circular economy is "an economy that is restorative and regenerative by design, and which aims to keep products, components, and materials at their highest utility and value at all times". The circular economy model emphasizes the efficient use of resources, reduction of waste, and promotion of closed-loop systems to create a sustainable and resilient economy. This research paper tries to understand the application of circular economy principles in the building design and construction methods in India. The study will analyse the existing manufacturing methods for brick, cement, and steel bars in India, identify market trends and innovative policy and regulatory practices related to circular economy principles. The paper argues the need for service level innovations and market transformation in the building material production process, Eco-labelling policy and whole building Embodied Carbon indicator and informed consumer behaviour as well as environmental product declaration recommendations as the long-term strategies for the circular economy in the building design and construction industry.

Perceived as an economic power accounting for 10% of world GDP, 30% of services exports and 1 in 10 jobs in the world, tourism is one of the most affected sectors in terms of income and employment, as any restriction on the movement of people within and between countries has a negative impact on this sector. The aim of the paper is to identify which countries are most dependent on the tourism sector and to identify trends for the safe recovery of the tourism sector as an important tool for achieving a long-term, sustainable and inclusive future. The paper draws selected data from the World Travel & Tourism Council database and provides an analysis of the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in 33 countries, using 8 indicators. The method of cluster analysis was used in the work. Based on the results of the cluster analysis, the countries were divided into four clusters. They quantify potential changes in the behaviour of tourism participants as a consequence of travel and mobility constraints, psychological and economic factors. Finally, we present the drivers of changes in consumer behaviour in the form of several scenarios.

The Lead Cooled Fast Reactor (LFR) is one of the six concepts selected by the Generation IV International Forum (GIF) as candidates for the long term evolution of nuclear technology. Due to the significant technological innovations it implies, the European Sustainable Nuclear Energy Technology Platform (SNETP) recognized that LFR complete development requires the realization of a demonstration plant (DEMO) as a fundamental intermediate step. In this paper, a preliminary approach to the simulation of DEMO primary system dynamic behavior is presented. The need of investigating reactor responses to temperature transients has led to a simplified model reckoning with all the main feedbacks following a reactivity change in the core, which have been calculated by means of ERANOS deterministic code ver. 2.1 coupled with JEFF3.1 data library. A lumped-parameter approach has been adopted to treat both neutronics and thermal-hydraulics: indeed, the point-kinetics approximation has been employed and an average-temperature heat-exchange model has been implemented. Due to the latter, the dynamic mechanical behavior of DEMO core — modeled as a cylinder — has been addressed by considering expansions and contractions instantaneous with temperature variations, i.e. neglecting mass inertia effects. The very simple linearized model treated in the present work turns out to be a helpful tool in this early phase of the DEMO pre-design, in which all the system specifications are still considered to be open design parameters, since it allows a relatively quick, qualitative analysis of dynamics and stability aspects that cannot be left aside when refining or even finalizing the system configuration.

The European HTR-Technology Network (HTR-TN), created in 2000, presently groups 20 organisations from European nuclear research and industry for developing the technologies of direct-cycle modular HTRs, which presently raise a large world-wide interest, because of their high potential for economic competitiveness, natural resource sparing, safety and minimisation of the waste impacts, in line with the goals of sustainable development of Generation IV. All aspects of HTR technologies are addressed by HTR-TN, from the reactor physics to the development of materials, fuel and components. Most of this activity is supported by the European Commission in the frame of its 5th Euratom Framework Programme. The first results of HTR-TN programme are given: the analysis of the reactor physics international benchmark on the commissioning tests of HTTR (Japan), the long term behaviour of spent HTR fuel in geologic disposal conditions, the preparation of a very high burnup fuel irradiation and the development of fabrication processes for producing high performance coated particles, etc.

A R&D programme has been launched addressing the needs of the development of an indirect cycle flexible modular HTR operating at 850°C for electricity generation and/or heat production for industrial processes. In the frame of this program, several significant technical challenges required to demonstrate the viability and performance of the system have been successfully addressed. Design and safety analysis needed the development of computational tools, therefore reactor physics, and thermo-fluid dynamics codes have been developed and are now in the process of being validated in the frame of international code-to-code and code to experiment benchmarks. Most importantly, the performance of the HTR/VHTR fuel identified as TRISO-coated particle must prove to be excellent in operating as well as accidental conditions. A manufacturing and quality control process has been developed and now fuel qualification based on irradiation and heating safety tests is being prepared on the basis of irradiation programs in France and in the frame of the GENERATION IV International Forum (GIF) as well as the development of fuel behaviour models including performance data, failure particle prediction and long-term integrity of the coating. Material and component technologies have been investigated in normal and accident conditions for V/HTR objectives. Significant progress has been made for vessel structures and reactor core structural elements. Major challenges still lie ahead for plate type compact intermediate heat exchangers, especially at temperatures above 850°C, but an alternative solution with helical tubes is also being developed. In order to demonstrate that materials have adequate performance over long service life under impure helium environment and constraints, the research programme focuses on microstructural and mechanical property data, long-term irradiation behaviour, corrosion, modelling and codification of design rules as well as qualification of components in representative helium test loops. The potential of this type of reactor for higher performances in terms of fuel burn-up and temperature (VHTR objective) has been explored, in particular for application to hydrogen production. The major research axes on hydrogen production technologies include the development and optimization of high temperature electrolysis and thermo-chemical water splitting processes such as sulphur/iodine or hybrid sulphur. Alternative thermo-chemical hydrogen generation processes operating at lower temperatures are also investigated. This paper addresses the R&D work performed since 2001 and the future work anticipated until 2012, where decisions about a demonstrator could be made at a European level within the Sustainable Nuclear Energy Technological Platform (SNE-TP). This program is strongly connected to the Euratom Framework Programmes as well as to GIF.

This is a project report from subtask 3 of the Users TCP Gender & Energy Task. The design portion of the project, led by Boid as part of the wider research initiative, focuses on developing technical interventions that integrate norm critical design to sustainable energy consumption in Swedish households. This approach seeks to shift the focus from a traditionally male mindset in energy saving activities, which often emphasizes long term, technical solutions, to a more behavior-based approach traditionally associated with women, emphasizing daily energy use and planning.

High honeybee colony losses in the last decade have raised the scientific efforts to determine and mitigate the causes of declining honeybee health. Although honeybees are exposed to a variety of stressors, infestation by the ectoparasitic mite (Varroa destructor) and the viruses it vectors are considered to be the most significant biological problem of A. mellifera worldwide. Management of viral diseases is problematic and mainly focuses on control of Varroa. Current Varroa control suffers from the evolution mite resistance, negative effects on bees and bee products, and other inefficiencies and impracticalities. This situation necessitates the development of an integrated strategy for Varroa pest management. Breeding honeybee stocks that are resistant to mites is an essential part of any sustainable long-term control of Varroa. We have focused our study on the behavioral trait of worker hygienic behavior that has been described as a social colony defense mechanism against Varroa and some other brood diseases. The main original objectives of our proposal were: 1) Characterize the phenotypic architecture of the hygienic behavior and its cost (age and intensity of uncapping, removal, recapping, higher sensitivity of workers, stronger signaling by the brood, as well as the age of first foraging, longevity, and individual immunity of workers, and colony level of Varroa and viruses); 2) Determine patterns of inheritance of the key aspects of hygienic behavior by phenotyping of multiple crosses over several generations and reciprocal crosses; 3) Identify a robust core marker set for hygienic behavior by comparative transcriptomic analyses and QTL mapping of the hygienic trait; 4) Verify the core marker set in study of the general honeybee population to associate marker genotypes with hygienic performance; 5) Test the colony-level outcomes of introgressing hygienic-selection lines under field conditions into locally adapted populations. During the course of the project, we conducted a number of field experiments in our research apiaries and with beekeepers at different sites in Israel.

he Southeast Coast Network (SECN) conducts long-term terrestrial vegetation monitoring as part of the NPS Inventory and Monitoring Program. The vegetation community vital sign is one of the primary-tier resources identified by SECN park managers, and monitoring is conducted at 15 network parks (DeVivo et al. 2008). Monitoring plants and their associated communities over time allows for targeted understanding of ecosystems within the SECN geography, which provides managers information about the degree of change within their parks’ natural vegetation. 2021 marked the first year of conducting this monitoring effort at Congaree National Park (CONG). Sixty-four vegetation plots were established throughout the park from May through August. Data collected in each plot included species richness across multiple spatial scales, species-specific cover and constancy, species-specific woody stem seedling/sapling counts and adult tree (greater than 10 centimeters [3.9 inches {in}]) diameter at breast height (DBH), overall tree health, landform, soil, observed disturbance, and woody biomass (i.e., fuel load) estimates. This report summarizes the baseline (year 1) terrestrial vegetation data collected at Congaree National Park in 2021. Data were stratified across two dominant broadly defined habitats within the park, Coastal Plain Upland Open Woodlands and Coastal Plain Alluvial Wetlands. Noteworthy findings include: 295 vascular plant taxa (species or lower) were observed across 64 vegetation plots, including 37 species not previously documented within the park. 27 unique species of sedge (Carex sp.) were found across all plots. The most frequently encountered species in each broadly defined habitat included: Coastal Plain Alluvial Wetlands: green ash (Fraxinus pennsylvanica), red maple (Acer rubrum), possumhaw (Ilex decidua), eastern poison ivy (Toxicodendron radicans var. radicans), muscadine (Muscadinia rotundifolia var. rotundifolia) and smallspike false nettle (Boehmeria cylindrica). Coastal Plain Upland Open Woodlands: loblolly pine (Pinus taeda), muscadine, sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua), willow oak (Quercus phellos), roundleaf greenbrier (Smilax rotundifolia), and Carolina jessamine (Gelsemium sempervirens). Seven non-native species categorized as invasive (Significant or Severe Threat) by the South Carolina Exotic Pest Plant Council (SCEPPC 2014) were encountered within the park during this monitoring effort. These included sweet autumn virginsbower (Clematis terniflora), Chinese privet (Ligustrum sinense), Japanese honeysuckle (Lonicera japonica), Japanese climbing fern (Lygodium japonicum), Japanese stilt grass (Microstegium vimineum), marsh dew flower (Murdannia keisak), and Chinese wisteria (Wisteria sinensis). Four species listed as rare and tracked by the South Carolina Natural Heritage Program (SCNHP 2023) were encountered during this monitoring effort. These included Cherokee sedge (Carex cherokeensis), ravenfoot sedge (Carex crus-corvi), Santee azalea (Rhododendron eastmanii), and heartleaf nettle (Urtica chamaedryoides). Sweetgum, water tupelo (Nyssa aquatica), green ash, and bald-cypress were the most dominant species within the tree stratum of Coastal Plain Alluvial Wetland sites; loblolly pine was the most dominant species of Coastal Plain Upland Open Woodlands. Feral hog (Sus scrofa) rooting was observed in 73% of the Coastal Plain Alluvial Wetland plots, while 20% of the plots had over 60% damage from rooting behavior. Hog activity was observed throughout the Congaree National Park’s floodplain, but largely absent from sites along the park’s northern boundary with the private hunt club. Based on data collected from eight Coastal Plain Upland Open Woodland plots, the canopy and subcanopy composition and structure of the park’s upland pine woodlands are not in a condition to maintain fire-dependency and thus promote healthy and sustainable longleaf pine woodlands. Densities of loblolly pine in the canopy and sweetgum in the sapling stratum are elevated. However, with continued fire and fire surrogate treatments to these upland units, thriving longleaf pine woodlands can be achieved. All plots are scheduled to be resampled during the summer of 2025.

Inflation has decreased since April, and it is projected to continue to reduce significantly throughout 2024 as it converges toward 3%. In September 2023, the headline annual inflation rate was 10.99% and completed six consecutive months of declines. Core inflation, excluding food and regulated items, has experienced three consecutive months of reductions and currently stands at 9.5%. The reduction in inflation has been slower than the projected by the Central Bank and market analysts, primarily due to: More persistent price increases in services and regulated baskets, which are affected by indexation mechanisms of past inflation and minimum wage. Increases in some prices of perishable food items. Going forward, monetary policy actions will continue contributing to inflation reduction in 2024 and its convergence toward the 3% target during 2025. Projections for 2024 consider the impact of the El Niño with moderate effects on food and energy prices, the implementation of healthy taxes, and necessary adjustments in fuel prices. Economic activity and employment continue to grow, with a projected GDP growth of 1.2% for 2023. The economic slowdown this year allows economic activity and consumption and investment expenditures to align with the long-term productive capacity of the economy, contributing to inflation reduction. For the third quarter, available economic indicators suggest an annual GDP growth of 0.4%. Despite the low growth rate, economic activity would maintain the high levels achieved in the first half of the year. Employment continues to grow in most economic sectors, and the unemployment rate remains historically low. The economic slowdown has been milder than the projected by the Central Bank, resulting in an upward revision of the 2023 growth rate from 0.9% to 1.2%. For 2024, the economy is expected to maintain a slow growth pace (0.8%), contributing to the inflation convergence to the target. Private consumption will adjust, while investment levels will remain lower than before the pandemic. In 2025, the economy is expected to return to growth rates close to those sustainable in the long-term. These adjustments in the economy are reflected in a reduction of the current account deficit and less vulnerability to external conditions changes. The policy interest rate remains at 13.25%, currently appropriate level to consolidate inflation reduction toward the 3% target and to foster sustainable economic growth. In the September and October meetings of 2023, the Board of Directors, by majority, decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at 13.25%. The current monetary policy stance is driven by persistent high inflation, forecasts and expectations of inflation exceeding the 3% target, and with levels of economic activity close to its productive capacity. The Bank will continue to monitor the economy and its key risks to make decisions that are in the best interest of the country. Some important risk factors to watch in the coming months include: El Niño phenomenon evolution, which may result in additional impacts on inflation. Wage adjustments that will be determined in the coming months. The persistence of higher price increases, particularly, in the services sub-basket. The behavior of global short and long-term interest rates that may affect the exchange rate. The economic slowdown. Reducing inflation brings multiple benefits to the economy: Reducing inflation toward the target supports the preservation of wage purchasing power. Low and stable inflation prevents regressive income and wealth redistributions. In particular, low-income individuals and the unemployed have fewer mechanisms to shield themselves from the eroding impact of inflation on their income and savings. When inflation is low, it becomes more predictable and facilitates the development and continuity of long-term financing markets (such as TES and mortgages), enabling the financing of government, corporate, and household investment projects. Additionally, when inflation is low, real interest rates are lower, making it more affordable to finance these projects. When inflation is low and stable, price movements of goods and services are more informative about the sectors in which it is most valuable to increase production. This leads to a better sectoral allocation of capital and labor and, therefore, to raising the total productivity of the economy.

Macroeconomic summary Economic activity has recovered faster than projected, and output is now expected to return to pre-pandemic levels earlier than anticipated. Economic growth projections for 2021 and 2022 have been revised upward, though significant downward bias remains. (Graph 1.1). Colombia’s economy returned to recovery in the third quarter after significant supply shocks and a third wave of COVID-19 in the second. Negative shocks affecting mobility and output were absent in the third quarter, and some indicators of economic activity suggest that the rate of recovery in demand, primarily in consumption, outpaced estimates from the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) in the context of widely expansive monetary policy. Several factors are expected to continue to contribute to output recovery for the rest of the year and into 2022, including the persistence of favorable international financial conditions, an expected improvement in external demand, and an increase in terms of trade. Increasing vaccination rates, the expectation of higher levels of employment and the consequent effect on household income, improved investment performance (which has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels), and the expected stimulus from monetary policy that would continue to be expansive should also drive economic activity. As a result, output is estimated to have returned to its pre-pandemic level in the third quarter (previously expected in the fourth quarter). Growth is expected to decelerate in 2022, with excess productive capacity projected to close faster than anticipated in the previous report. Given the above, GDP growth projections have been revised upward for 2021 (9.8%, range between 8.4% and 11.2%) and 2022 (4.7%, range between 0.7% and 6.5%). If these estimates are confirmed, output would have grown by 2.3% on average between 2020 and 2022. This figure would be below long-term sustainable growth levels projected prior to the pandemic. The revised growth forecast for 2022 continues to account for a low basis of comparison from this year (reflecting the negative effects of COVID-19 and roadblocks in some parts of the country), and now supposes that estimated consumption levels for the end of 2021 will remain relatively stable in 2022. Investment and net exports are expected to recover at a faster pace than estimated in the previous report. Nevertheless, the downward risks to these estimates remain unusually significant, for several reasons. First, they do not suppose significant negative effects on the economy from possible new waves of COVID-19. Second, because private consumption, which has already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could perform less favorably than estimated in this forecast should it reflect a temporary phenomenon related to suppressed demand as service sectors re-open (e.g. tourism) and private savings accumulated during the pandemic are spent. Third, disruptions to supply chains could be more persistent than contemplated in this report and could continue to affect production costs, with a negative impact on the economy. Finally, the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances could translate to increased vulnerability to changes in international financial conditions or in international and domestic economic agents’ perception of risk in the Colombian economy, representing a downward risk to growth. A higher-than-expected increase in inflation, the persistence of supply shocks, and reduced excess productive capacity have led to an increase in inflation projections above the target on the forecast horizon (Graph 1.2). Inflation increased above expectations to 4.51% in the third quarter, due in large part to the price behavior of foods and regulated items, and to a lesser extent to core inflation. Increased international prices and costs continue to generate upward pressure on various sub-baskets of the consumer price index (CPI), as has the partial reversion of some price relief measures implemented in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.