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1
Chaushevski, Anton, and Sofija Nikolova-Poceva. "Long Term Planning of Macedonian Electricity Supply." Energija, ekonomija, ekologija XXIV, no. 4 (December 2022): 85–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.46793/eee22-4.85c.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
In the paper alternatives for expansion of the Macedonian electricity supply system are presented. MESSAGE tool is used for modelling the system, for developing the scenarios, to analyse cost optimal energy pathways and to determine the optimal electricity generation technology mix. The calculations for the period 2020-2050 are made in a 5-year interval. Two scenarios are developed: Scenario 1 – BAU (Business as Usual) scenario, where the current energy structure prevailed, with trends like the current development. The electricity demand is satisfied by coal-fired thermal power plants, gas-fired thermal power plants, hydro power plants and renewable power plants. Scenario 2 – Green scenario, where gas-fired thermal power plants and nuclear power representative with small modular reactors are base load technologies, and also intensive construction of production capacities on renewable energy sources is forced. By making further analysis, the possibility of flexibility in the construction of new facilities within the interval, economic indicators, and appropriate impact on the environment are obtained. In order to make an economic analysis for a particular technology, calculations are made for parameters that are standard for projects, such as: net present value, benefit – cost ratio, payback period and internal rate of return. The environmental impact is analysed of aspect of CO2 emissions.
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Kawase, Reina, Yuzuru Matsuoka, and Junichi Fujino. "Decomposition analysis of CO2 emission in long-term climate stabilization scenarios." Energy Policy 34, no. 15 (October 2006): 2113–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2005.02.005.
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Asadi, Mahdi, Iman Larki, Mohammad Mahdi Forootan, Rouhollah Ahmadi, and Meisam Farajollahi. "Long-Term Scenario Analysis of Electricity Supply and Demand in Iran: Time Series Analysis, Renewable Electricity Development, Energy Efficiency and Conservation." Sustainability 15, no. 5 (March 4, 2023): 4618. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su15054618.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Electricity plays a vital role in the economic development and welfare of countries. Examining the electricity situation and defining scenarios for developing power plant infrastructure will help countries avoid misguided policies that incur high costs and reduce people’s welfare. In the present research, three scenarios from 2021–2040 have been defined for Iran’s electricity status. The first scenario continues the current trend and forecasts population, electricity consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions from power plants with ARIMA and single and triple exponential smoothing time series algorithms. As part of the second scenario, only non-hydro renewable resources will be used to increase the electricity supply. By ensuring the existence of potential, annual growth patterns have been defined, taking into account the renewable electricity generation achieved by successful nations. The third scenario involves integrating operating gas turbines into combined cycles in exchange for buyback contracts. Economically, this scenario calculates return on investment through an arrangement of various contracts for the seller company and fuel savings for the buyer.
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An, Songhee, Guetae Park, Hanna Jung, and Dongwoo Jang. "Assessment of Future Drought Index Using SSP Scenario in Rep. of Korea." Sustainability 14, no. 7 (April 2, 2022): 4252. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14074252.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Drought is a meteorological disaster that has serious economic and environmental impacts. Therefore, for drought assessment, it is important to not only analyze the current state of drought using observed data but also future droughts by considering climate change. Although shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) have been developed, studies regarding their application in drought analysis in Korea are insufficient. In this study, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and reconnaissance drought index (RDI) for future droughts in Korea were calculated and analyzed using climate data based on SSP scenarios. The precipitation and temperature data from SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were analyzed. In both scenarios, temperature and precipitation increased toward the long-term future, with the increase being more in the SSP5-8.5 scenario than in the SSP1-2.6 scenario. Using these data, the number of drought occurrences was found to be smaller, and the two drought indices were found to be lower in SSP5-8.5 scenario than in the SSP1-2.6 scenario, implying that more severe droughts may occur in the former than in the latter. In addition, in SSP1-2.6 scenarios, both SPI and RDI increased toward the long-term future, while in SSP5-8.5 scenario, SPI increased, and RDI decreased toward the long-term future.
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Sironen, Susanna, and Laura Mononen. "Spatially Referenced Decision Analysis of Long-Term Forest Management Scenarios in Southwestern Finland." Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management 20, no. 03 (September 2018): 1850009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s1464333218500096.
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Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) of regional level long-term forest management scenarios was conducted by applying spatially explicit information to examine the trade-offs between ecological, economic and social impacts. Interval scale judgements were applied to mapped and numerical information jointly, while assessing the performance of alternative scenarios. The experts relied mostly on the numerical information, with which they might have been more confident and familiar. The weight elicitation was based on SMART using Swings (SMARTS) and SMART Exploiting Ranks (SMARTER). SMARTS resulted in two scenarios being quite equal either due to experts truly considering them equally important or being unconfident to express their weights applying SMARTS. SMARTER was considered more understandable, but lead to total utilities having wider range. However, impact information had a greater effect on the overall utility than the weighting. Future insights include use of dynamic approach, considering the issue more from ecosystem services point of view and tighter integration of participatory MCDA and geographic information systems (GIS).
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Büsselmann, Julian, Maren Rastedt, Tomas Klicpera, Karsten Reinwald, Henrike Schmies, Alexander Dyck, and Peter Wagner. "Analysis of HT-PEM MEAs’ Long-Term Stabilities." Energies 13, no. 3 (January 24, 2020): 567. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en13030567.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Despite the great advantages of high-temperature polymer electrolyte membrane (HT-PEM) fuel cells over the low-temperature (LT) PEM alternative, such as enhanced reaction kinetics and higher tolerance against impurities like CO due to the higher operation temperature, the achievement of high lifetimes still remains a challenge. In order to improve the durability of the fuel cell, extensive research has been carried out on alternatives for the individual components. For this reason, this paper conducted extended long-term tests with three three membrane electrode assemblies (MEAs) from one manufacturer under different operational scenarios. The MEAs differed mainly by the membranes used and showed significantly different behaviors. While the first MEA reached the end of life already after 2600 h, the second one could pass 9800 h almost without any problems. The third MEA proved resistant to adverse conditions. For all three MEAs, extensive electrochemical characterizations and μ-CT examinations for the analysis of long-term stability are shown.
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Dalal, Dhaval, Muhammad Bilal, Hritik Shah, Anwarul Islam Sifat, Anamitra Pal, and Philip Augustin. "Cross-Correlated Scenario Generation for Renewable-Rich Power Systems Using Implicit Generative Models." Energies 16, no. 4 (February 7, 2023): 1636. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en16041636.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Generation of realistic scenarios is an important prerequisite for analyzing the reliability of renewable-rich power systems. This paper satisfies this need by presenting an end-to-end model-free approach for creating representative power system scenarios on a seasonal basis. A conditional recurrent generative adversarial network serves as the main engine for scenario generation. Compared to prior scenario generation models that treated the variables independently or focused on short-term forecasting, the proposed implicit generative model effectively captures the cross-correlations that exist between the variables considering long-term planning. The validity of the scenarios generated using the proposed approach is demonstrated through extensive statistical evaluation and investigation of end-application results. It is shown that analysis of abnormal scenarios, which is more critical for power system resource planning, benefits the most from cross-correlated scenario generation.
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Bourgeois, Emmanuel, Alain Corfdir, and Truong-Linh Chau. "Analysis of long-term deformations of MSE walls based on various corrosion scenarios." Soils and Foundations 53, no. 2 (April 2013): 259–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sandf.2013.02.006.
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Skoczkowski, Tadeusz, Sławomir Bielecki, and Joanna Wojtyńska. "Long-Term Projection of Renewable Energy Technology Diffusion." Energies 12, no. 22 (November 8, 2019): 4261. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en12224261.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The EU aims at increasing the use of renewable energy sources (RES), mainly solar-photovoltaic (PV) and wind technologies. Projecting the future, in this respect, requires a long-term energy modeling which includes a rate of diffusion of novel technologies into the market and the prediction of their costs. The aim of this article has been to project the pace at which RES technologies diffused in the past or may diffuse in the future across the power sector. This analysis of the dynamics of technologies historically as well as in modeling, roadmaps and scenarios consists in a consistent analysis of the main parameters of the dynamics (pace of diffusion and extent of diffusion in particular markets). Some scenarios (REMIND, WITCH, WEO, PRIMES) of the development of the selected power generation technologies in the EU till 2050 are compared. Depending on the data available, the learning curves describing the expected development of PV and wind technologies till 2100 have been modeled. The learning curves have been presented as a unit cost of the power versus cumulative installed capacity (market size). As the production capacity increases, the cost per unit is reduced thanks to learning how to streamline the manufacturing process. Complimentary to these learning curves, logistic S-shape functions have been used to describe technology diffusion. PV and wind generation technologies for the EU have been estimated in time domain till 2100. The doubts whether learning curves are a proper method of representing technological change due to various uncertainties have been discussed. A critical analysis of effects of the commonly applied models for a long-term energy projection (REMIND, WITCH) use has been conducted. It has been observed that for the EU the analyzed models, despite differences in the target saturation levels, predict stagnation in the development of PV and wind technologies from around 2040. Key results of the analysis are new insights into the plausibility of future deployment scenarios in different sectors, informed by the analysis of historical dynamics of technology diffusion, using to the extent possible consistent metrics.
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Razumovsky, Lev V. "Review of the long term research results using the author's method of graphical analysis." Issues of modern algology (Вопросы современной альгологии), no. 2(20) (2019): 69–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.33624/2311-0147-2019-2(20)-69-73.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The work describes new method of graphical analysis developed for freshwater ecosystems and three scenarios of their transformation were documented. The parameters of the structure-forming groups of hydrobionts, which determine their stability, are established. The transformations recorded in natural or natural-technogenic systems were analyzed using a similar method. The similarity of those scenarios allows us to refer all the considered systems to the systems of the fourth level of complexity.
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Kanté, Moussa, Yang Li, and Shuai Deng. "Scenarios Analysis on Electric Power Planning Based on Multi-Scale Forecast: A Case Study of Taoussa, Mali from 2020 to 2035." Energies 14, no. 24 (December 17, 2021): 8515. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14248515.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The increase in electricity demand is caused by population density, gross domestic product growth and technological conditions. A long-term forecast study on the electricity demand could be a promising alternative to the investment planning of power systems and distribution. In this study, the main aim is to forecast and understand the long-term electricity demand of the Taoussa area for the sustainable development of the regions of northern Mali, by using the Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) from the International Atomic Energy Agency. To fill such a knowledge gap, the long-term evolution of electricity demand is calculated separately for four consumption sectors: industry, transportation, service and household from 2020 to 2035. The demand for each end-use category of electricity is driven by one or several socioeconomic and technological parameters development of the country, which are given as part of the reference scenario (RS) and two alternative scenarios (Low and High). These scenarios were developed based on four groups of coherent hypotheses concerning demographic evolution, economic development, lifestyle change and technological change. The results showed that the annual growth rate of electricity demand in Taoussa area in all scenarios is expected to increase by only 8.13% (LS), 10.31% (RS) and 12.56% (HS). According to the seasonal variations of electricity demand, dry season electricity demand was higher than the demand in cool season during the study period. Such a conclusion demonstrates that the proposed long-term method and related results could provide powerful sustainable solutions to the electricity development challenges of Africa.
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Jones, Felipe J. S., Paula R. Sanches, Jason R. Smith, Sahar F. Zafar, Sonia Hernandez-Diaz, Deborah Blacker, John Hsu, Lee H. Schwamm, Michael B. Westover, and Lidia M. V. R. Moura. "Anticonvulsant Primary and Secondary Prophylaxis for Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients: A Decision Analysis." Stroke 52, no. 9 (September 2021): 2782–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1161/strokeaha.120.033299.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Background and Purpose: We examined the impact of 3 anticonvulsant prophylaxis strategies on quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) among patients with an incident acute ischemic stroke. Methods: We created a decision tree to evaluate 3 strategies: (1) long-term primary prophylaxis; (2) short-term secondary prophylaxis after an early seizure with lifetime prophylaxis if persistent or late seizures (LSs) developed; and (3) long-term secondary prophylaxis if either early, late, or persistent seizures developed. The outcome was quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALY). We created 4 base cases to simulate common clinical scenarios: (1) female patient aged 40 years with a 2% or 11% lifetime risk of an LS and a 33% lifetime risk of an adverse drug reaction (ADR); (2) male patient aged 65 years with a 6% or 29% LS risk and 60% ADR risk; (3) male patient aged 50 years with an 18% or 65% LS risk and 33% ADR risk; and (4) female patient aged 80 years with a 29% or 83% LS risk and 80% ADR risk. In sensitivity analyses, we altered the parameters and assumptions. Results: Across all 4 base cases, primary prophylaxis yielded the fewest QALYs when compared with secondary prophylaxis. For example, under scenario 1, strategies 2 and 3 resulted in 7.17 QALYs each, but strategy 1 yielded only 6.91 QALYs. Under scenario 4, strategies 2 and 3 yielded 2.85 QALYs compared with 1.40 QALYs for strategy 1. Under scenarios in which patients had higher ADR risks, strategy 2 led to the most QALYs. Conclusions: Short-term therapy with continued anticonvulsant prophylaxis only after postischemic stroke seizures arise dominates lifetime primary prophylaxis in all scenarios examined. Our findings reinforce the necessity of close follow-up and discontinuation of anticonvulsant seizure prophylaxis started during acute ischemic stroke hospitalization.
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Tian, Chuan, Guohui Feng, Shuai Li, and Fuqiang Xu. "Scenario Analysis on Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions Reduction Potential in Building Heating Sector at Community Level." Sustainability 11, no. 19 (September 29, 2019): 5392. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11195392.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Energy consumption and carbon emissions of building heating are increasing rapidly. Taking Liaobin coastal economic zone as an example, two scenarios are built to analyze the potential of energy consumption and CO2 emissions reduction from the aspects of laws, regulations, policies and planning. The baseline scenario refers to the traditional way of energy planning and the community energy planning scenario seeks to apply community energy planning within the zone. Energy consumption and CO2 emission are forecast in two scenarios with the driving factors including GDP growth, changes in population size, energy structure adjustment, energy technology progress, and increase of energy efficiency. To improve accuracy of future GDP and population data prediction, an ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model) (1,1,1) model is introduced into GDP prediction and a logistics model is introduced into population prediction. Results show that compared with the baseline scenario, energy consumption levels in the community energy planning scenario are reduced by 140% and CO2 emission levels are reduced by 45%; the short-term and long-term driving factors are analyzed. Policy implications are given for energy conservation and environmental protection.
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Langholtz, Matthew, Ingrid Busch, Abishek Kasturi, Michael R. Hilliard, Joanna McFarlane, Costas Tsouris, Srijib Mukherjee, et al. "The Economic Accessibility of CO2 Sequestration through Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) in the US." Land 9, no. 9 (August 27, 2020): 299. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/land9090299.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is one strategy to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. To assess the potential scale and cost of CO2 sequestration from BECCS in the US, this analysis models carbon sequestration net of supply chain emissions and costs of biomass production, delivery, power generation, and CO2 capture and sequestration in saline formations. The analysis includes two biomass supply scenarios (near-term and long-term), two biomass logistics scenarios (conventional and pelletized), and two generation technologies (pulverized combustion and integrated gasification combined cycle). Results show marginal cost per tonne CO2 (accounting for costs of electricity and CO2 emissions of reference power generation scenarios) as a function of CO2 sequestered (simulating capture of up to 90% of total CO2 sequestration potential) and associated spatial distribution of resources and generation locations for the array of scenario options. Under a near-term scenario using up to 206 million tonnes per year of biomass, up to 181 million tonnes CO2 can be sequestered annually at scenario-average costs ranging from $62 to $137 per tonne CO2; under a long-term scenario using up to 740 million tonnes per year of biomass, up to 737 million tonnes CO2 can be sequestered annually at scenario-average costs ranging from $42 to $92 per tonne CO2. These estimates of CO2 sequestration potential may be reduced if future competing demand reduces resource availability or may be increased if displaced emissions from conventional power sources are included. Results suggest there are large-scale opportunities to implement BECCS at moderate cost in the US, particularly in the Midwest, Plains States, and Texas.
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Ravirala, Venkatesh, Dimitri A. Grivas, Salvatore Arminio, and Richard Garrabrant. "Goal-Oriented Optimization Procedure for Long-Term Highway Investment Planning." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1592, no. 1 (January 1997): 17–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/1592-03.
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A goal-oriented optimization procedure for analyzing investment choices associated with rehabilitation of large pavement networks is presented. The procedure consists of three steps: (a) project-level planning, encompassing the tasks of condition characterization, treatment identification, cost estimation, and performance prediction; (b) network-level goal setting, involving specification of desired condition and investment levels for multiple years; and (c) optimization analysis, consisting of formulating and solving a goal program. The procedure is implemented in a prototype software system and is used to evaluate various management-suggested pavement program scenarios. The system facilitated the analysis of competing needs and the evaluation of implications of various pavement program scenarios for the New York State Thruway Authority’s pavement network. The paper presents significant findings from application of the optimization procedure, including a functional relationship between the network condition and expenditure. Important conclusions regarding the goal-oriented approach to highway management are also presented.
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Handayani, Kamia, Yoram Krozer, and Tatiana Filatova. "From fossil fuels to renewables: An analysis of long-term scenarios considering technological learning." Energy Policy 127 (April 2019): 134–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.11.045.
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Tang, Lan, Xiaoqing Zhou, and Xin Yang. "Analysis of Energy Consumption Scenarios of Building in Guangzhou in a Mid-Long Term." Journal of Power and Energy Engineering 02, no. 04 (2014): 340–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jpee.2014.24045.
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TOL, RICHARD S. J., KRISTIE L. EBI, and GARY W. YOHE. "Infectious disease, development, and climate change: a scenario analysis." Environment and Development Economics 12, no. 5 (October 2007): 687–706. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1355770x07003841.
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We study the effects of development and climate change on infectious diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa. Infant mortality and infectious disease are closely related, but there are better data for the former. In an international cross-section, per capita income, literacy, and absolute poverty significantly affect infant mortality. We use scenarios of these three determinants and of climate change to project the future incidence of malaria, assuming it to change proportionally to infant mortality. Malaria deaths will first increase, because of population growth and climate change, but then fall, because of development. This pattern is robust to the choice of scenario, parameters, and starting conditions; and it holds for diarrhoea, schistosomiasis, and dengue fever as well. However, the timing and level of the mortality peak is very sensitive to assumptions. Climate change is important in the medium term, but dominated in the long term by development. As climate can only be changed with a substantial delay, development is the preferred strategy to reduce infectious diseases even if they are exacerbated by climate change. Development can, in particular, support the needed strengthening of disease control programs in the short run and thereby increase the capacity to cope with projected increases in infectious diseases over the medium to long term. This conclusion must, however, be viewed with caution, because development, even of the sort envisioned in the underlying socio-economic scenarios, is by no means certain.
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Glen, A. S., and C. R. Dickman. "Population viability analysis shows spotted-tailed quolls may be vulnerable to competition." Australian Mammalogy 35, no. 2 (2013): 180. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/am12045.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Competition between carnivores can strongly affect their behaviour, abundance and distribution. Recent analyses suggest a strong likelihood of competition between eutherian predators and the endangered spotted-tailed quoll (Dasyurus maculatus), although experiments are required to confirm this. If competition does occur, what are its likely effects on the long-term survival of spotted-tailed quoll populations? We used population viability analysis (PVA) to predict the fate of a hypothetical quoll population under various scenarios of competition. PVA showed that spotted-tailed quoll populations may be susceptible to extinction when faced with high densities of competitors. Model scenarios simulating exploitation competition and/or intraguild killing greatly reduced the population’s probability of survival, leading in the worst-case scenario to almost certain extinction.
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Becerril, Laura, Joan Martí, Stefania Bartolini, and Adelina Geyer. "Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands)." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 17, no. 7 (July 11, 2017): 1145–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1145-2017.
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Abstract. Conducting long-term hazard assessment in active volcanic areas is of primary importance for land-use planning and defining emergency plans able to be applied in case of a crisis. A definition of scenario hazard maps helps to mitigate the consequences of future eruptions by anticipating the events that may occur. Lanzarote is an active volcanic island that has hosted the largest (> 1.5 km3 DRE) and longest (6 years) eruption, the Timanfaya eruption (1730–1736), on the Canary Islands in historical times (last 600 years). This eruption brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. In spite of all these facts, no comprehensive hazard assessment or hazard maps have been developed for the island. In this work, we present an integrated long-term volcanic hazard evaluation using a systematic methodology that includes spatial analysis and simulations of the most probable eruptive scenarios.
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Belousov, D. R. "On Subtle Factors of Development Uncertainty in the Long Term and Ways of Adapting to New Challenges." Economic Revival of Russia, no. 3 (73) (2022): 61–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.37930/1990-9780-2022-3-73-61-70.
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The article considers long-term development trends under conditions of uncertainty, a preliminary scenario analysis of the economic status after the events of February 24, 2022 is provided. The author proposes methods and means to adapt to new challenges. Particular attention is paid to the structuring of basic trends and systemic processes. The advancement of development scenarios and the main scenario-forming contradictions are described in detail. The article provides recommendations for the transition from stabilization to development. An example of the implementation of the proposed adaptation strategy in relation to organizations of science and technology is given.
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Zhou, Tao, Cheng Tao, and Kai Liu. "Analysis of Nonstationary Characteristics for High-Speed Railway Scenarios." Wireless Communications and Mobile Computing 2018 (June 21, 2018): 1–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2018/1729121.
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This paper presents the analysis of nonstationary characteristics for high-speed railway (HSR) scenarios, according to passive long-term evolution- (LTE-) based channel measurements. The measurement data collected in three typical scenarios, rural, station, and suburban, are processed to obtain the channel impulse responses (CIRs). Based on the CIRs, the nonstationarity of the HSR channel is studied focusing on the stationarity interval, and a four-state Markov chain model is generated to describe the birth-death process of multipath components. The presented results will be useful in dynamic channel modeling for future HSR mobile communication systems.
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Kapustin, Nikita O., and Dmitry A. Grushevenko. "Global prospects of unconventional oil in the turbulent market: a long term outlook to 2040." Oil & Gas Science and Technology – Revue d’IFP Energies nouvelles 73 (2018): 67. http://dx.doi.org/10.2516/ogst/2018063.
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Unconventional oils have taken the global oil industry by storm and have secured an 8% share in the global liquid fuels production in under 20 years. And it is without a doubt that these resources will continue to play an important role in the future. Cost analysis of unconventional oil types has shown that Light Tight Oil (LTO) or shale oil still holds potential for technological and economical improvement, however, the revolutionary stage in development has probably already been passed in the US. For the rest of the world, the issue of kick starting LTO production lies as much in the fields of adapting the existing technologies, as overcoming economic, legislative and environmental barriers. The same cannot be said for heavy oil and bitumen production, as open pit mining is demonstrating cost escalation and resource base depletion, whilein situproduction approach has reached the limit of technological progress and production costs are mostly determined by external factors. Oil price fluctuation and the emergence of more economically viable unconventional oil sources have shifted attention away from kerogen oil and substantially halted production technologies development. The forecast of unconventional oil was conducted along two scenarios: Baseline (a business-as-usual scenario) and Technological (scenario of forced technology development and transfer). The share of unconventional oil in global crude production will increase to 17–21%, depending on scenario. The main difference between scenarios is the rate of kerogen production, which benefits from the favorable conditions of the Technological scenario. Large-scale LTO production will remain a local North American phenomenon in both scenarios. More important than geological or technological factors is the unique business environment, characteristic for the USA, which would be impossible to replicate in any other country. Expansion of unconventional oil production as stimulated competition on the liquid fuels market. Conventional oil producers have mostly adapted to the new environment and will continue to dominate in the forecast period. The greatest pressure is put on the more costly alternative supply sources: biofuels, coal-to-liquid and gas-to-liquid; which have the least promising prospects in the current market.
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Gelhausen, Marc Christopher, Peter Berster, and Dieter Wilken. "Post-COVID-19 Scenarios of Global Airline Traffic until 2040 That Reflect Airport Capacity Constraints and Mitigation Strategies." Aerospace 8, no. 10 (October 14, 2021): 300. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/aerospace8100300.
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Although there has been an unprecedented decline in traffic volume due to the COVID-19 crisis, robust growth in global demand for air transport services in the past means that air traffic is expected to recover in the long term. While capacity constraints are currently not a major topic at airports due to the extremely low levels of traffic, there is growing evidence to suggest that important nodes of the worldwide airport network will struggle to deal with capacity constraints after the recovery. The objectives of this research were therefore as follows: to elaborate long-term global passenger and flight volume scenarios in a post-COVID-19 world; to conduct an empirical and model-based analysis of the impact of limited airport capacity on the future development of air traffic in these scenarios; and to derive general strategies for mitigating capacity constraints at certain international airports. Thus, the main aim of this paper is to present a model-based scenario analysis of the long-term impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the capacity situation for airports. Our results indicate that once the pandemic is over, the capacity crunch will remain on the airports’ agenda for some time.
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Gelhausen, Marc Christopher, Peter Berster, and Dieter Wilken. "Post-COVID-19 Scenarios of Global Airline Traffic until 2040 That Reflect Airport Capacity Constraints and Mitigation Strategies." Aerospace 8, no. 10 (October 14, 2021): 300. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/aerospace8100300.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Although there has been an unprecedented decline in traffic volume due to the COVID-19 crisis, robust growth in global demand for air transport services in the past means that air traffic is expected to recover in the long term. While capacity constraints are currently not a major topic at airports due to the extremely low levels of traffic, there is growing evidence to suggest that important nodes of the worldwide airport network will struggle to deal with capacity constraints after the recovery. The objectives of this research were therefore as follows: to elaborate long-term global passenger and flight volume scenarios in a post-COVID-19 world; to conduct an empirical and model-based analysis of the impact of limited airport capacity on the future development of air traffic in these scenarios; and to derive general strategies for mitigating capacity constraints at certain international airports. Thus, the main aim of this paper is to present a model-based scenario analysis of the long-term impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the capacity situation for airports. Our results indicate that once the pandemic is over, the capacity crunch will remain on the airports’ agenda for some time.
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Domnisoru, Leonard, Ionica Rubanenco, and Mihaela Amoraritei. "Structural Safety Assessment of a 1100 TEU Container Ship, Based on a Enhanced Long Term Fatigue Analysis." Advanced Materials Research 1036 (October 2014): 935–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.1036.935.
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This paper is focused on an enhanced integrated method for structural safety assessment of maritime ships under extreme random wave loads. In this study is considered an 1100 TEU container test ship, with speed range 0 to 18 knots. The most comprehensive criteria for ships structural safety evaluation over the whole exploitation life is based on the long term ship structures analysis, that includes: stress hot-spots evaluation by 3D/1D-FEM hull models, computation of short term ship dynamic response induced by irregular waves, long term fatigue structure assessment. The analysis is enhanced by taking into account the ships speed influence on hydroelastic response. The study includes a comparative analysis on two scenarios for the correlation between the ships speed and waves intensity. The standard constant ship speed scenario and CENTEC scenario, with total speed loss at extreme waves condition, are considered. Instead of 20 years ship exploitation life estimated by classification societies rules from the long term structural safety criteria, the enhanced method has predicted more restrictive values of 14.4-15.7 years. The numerical analyses are based on own software and user subroutines. The study made possible to have a more realistic approach of ships structural strength assessment, for elastic and faster ships as container carriers, in compare to the standard one based only on naval rules, delivering a method with higher confidence in the designed structural safety.
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Touseef, Muhammad, Lihua Chen, Kaipeng Yang, and Yunyao Chen. "Long-Term Rainfall Trends and Future Projections over Xijiang River Basin, China." Advances in Meteorology 2020 (March 12, 2020): 1–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/6852148.
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Precipitation trend detection is vital for water resources development and decision support systems. This study predicts the climate change impacts on long-term precipitation trends. It deals with the analysis of observed historical (1960–2010) and arithmetic mean method in assembling precipitation from CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) datasets for a future period (2020–2099) under four emission scenarios. Daily precipitation data of 32 weather stations in the Xijiang River Basin were provided by National Meteorological Information Centre (NMIC) of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and Global Climate Models (GCMs) with all four emission scenarios statistically downscaled using Bias Correction Special Disaggregation (BCSD) and applied for bias correction via Climate Change Toolkit (CCT). Nonparametric Mann–Kendall test was applied for statistical significance trend analysis while the magnitude of the trends was determined by nonparametric Sen’s estimator method on a monthly scale to detect monotonic trends in annual and seasonal precipitation time series. The results showed a declined trend was observed for the past 50 years over the basin with negative values of MK test (Z) and Sen’s slope Q. Historical GCMs precipitation detected decreasing trends except for NoerESM1-M which observed slightly increasing trends. The results are further validated by historical precipitation recorded by the Climate Research Unit (CRU-TS-3.1). The future scenarios will likely be positive trends for annual rainfall. Significant positive trends were observed in monsoon and winter seasons while premonsoon and postmonsoon seasons will likely be slightly downward trends. The 2040s will likely observe the lowest increase of 6.6% while the 2050s will observe the highest increase of 11.5% over the 21st century under future scenarios. However, due to the uncertainties in CMIP5, the future precipitation projections should be interpreted with caution. Thus, it could be concluded that the trend of change in precipitation around the Xijiang River Basin is on the increase under future scenarios. The results can be valuable to water resources and agriculture management policies, as well as the approach for managing floods and droughts under the perspective of global climate change.
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Chen, Shu, Zhengen Ren, Zhi Tang, and Xianrong Zhuo. "Long-Term Prediction of Weather for Analysis of Residential Building Energy Consumption in Australia." Energies 14, no. 16 (August 6, 2021): 4805. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14164805.
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Globally, buildings account for nearly 40% of the total primary energy consumption and are responsible for 20% of the total greenhouse gas emissions. Energy consumption in buildings is increasing with the increasing world population and improving standards of living. Current global warming conditions will inevitably impact building energy consumption. To address this issue, this report conducted a comprehensive study of the impact of climate change on residential building energy consumption. Using the methodology of morphing, the weather files were constructed based on the typical meteorological year (TMY) data and predicted data generated from eight typical global climate models (GCMs) for three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) from 2020 to 2100. It was found that the most severe situation would occur in scenario RCP8.5, where the increase in temperature will reach 4.5 °C in eastern Australia from 2080–2099, which is 1 °C higher than that in other climate zones. With the construction of predicted weather files in 83 climate zones all across Australia, ten climate zones (cities)—ranging from heating-dominated to cooling-dominated regions—were selected as representative climate zones to illustrate the impact of climate change on heating and cooling energy consumption. The quantitative change in the energy requirements for space heating and cooling, along with the star rating, was simulated for two representative detached houses using the AccuRate software. It could be concluded that the RCP scenarios significantly affect the energy loads, which is consistent with changes in the ambient temperature. The heating load decreases for all climate zones, while the cooling load increases. Most regions in Australia will increase their energy consumption due to rising temperatures; however, the energy requirements of Adelaide and Perth would not change significantly, where the space heating and cooling loads are balanced due to decreasing heating and increasing cooling costs in most scenarios. The energy load in bigger houses will change more than that in smaller houses. Furthermore, Brisbane is the most sensitive region in terms of relative space energy changes, and Townsville appears to be the most sensitive area in terms of star rating change in this study. The impact of climate change on space building energy consumption in different climate zones should be considered in future design strategies due to the decades-long lifespans of Australian residential houses.
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Daniluk, Piotr. "Strategic Analysis of Energy Security. Methodological Aspects of the Scenario Approach." Energies 14, no. 15 (July 30, 2021): 4639. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14154639.
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This article presents the research results related to the methodology of threat analysis to implement in energy security. In the conducted studies, the world’s output in scenario planning and the most famous cases of global security and technology scenarios were analysed. These projects were the Lisbon Group analysis, Shell’s scenario planning concepts, and the US National Intelligence Council’s long-term analysis. In this way, I demonstrated the limitations of a scenario-based view of the issues under study, resulting mainly from considering only one type of environment. The formulated conclusions made it possible to build the author’s model of the strategic analysis process for the energy security sector. It goes beyond scenario analysis, complementing it with the sector, portfolio, and integrated analysis methods. The strategic analysis built in this way takes into account the achievements of many scientific disciplines, namely, technology, security, strategic management, foresight, international relations, and military. The multidisciplinary knowledge used to build the proposed concept will allow one to consider the increasing complexity of the global environment. Only such a scientific approach nowadays allows practical analysis and planning in the long term. Areas of special attention in strategic analysis, which constitute directions for developing research methodology, are indicated.
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Pernigotto, Giovanni, Alessandro Prada, and Andrea Gasparella. "Development of Extreme Reference Years for Building Energy Simulation Scenarios." Applied Mechanics and Materials 887 (January 2019): 129–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.887.129.
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Typical years are developed from the analysis of multi-year series, selecting actual months to assembly in a single reference year, representative of the long-term typical weather. Some statistical techniques are generally involved in the development process to ensure true frequencies, sequences and cross-correlations of the weather quantities: as regard the reference year built according to the European technical standard EN ISO 15927-4:2005, TRYEN, the method is based on the Finkelstein-Schafer statistics. In this work, we exploit the same statistic with a different target: to develop an extreme reference year, ERY, by identifying those candidate months far from being representative of the long-term weather data distribution. These new artificial extreme years are composed of statistically “non-representative” months warmer in the summer and colder in the winter - which means with daily dry bulb temperature and global solar irradiation higher in summer or lower in winter than the long-term averages respectively. The analysis is performed for five Italian localities belonging to the Alpine Regions and to Sicily. Aiming to assess the efficacy of the proposed procedure, TRYEN and ERY are compared and both used to simulate the energy performance of 48 simplified buildings, parametrically built by varying insulation level, windows’ size, orientation and SHGC and kind of opaque elements.
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Irsyad, Muhammad Indra al, Anthony Halog, Rabindra Nepal, and Deddy P. Koesrindartoto. "The Impacts of Emission Reduction Targets in Indonesia Electricity Systems." Indonesian Journal of Energy 2, no. 2 (August 30, 2019): 118–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.33116/ije.v2i2.42.
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Climate change policy often contradicts the least-cost objective of electricity generation in developing countries. The objective of our study is to propose electricity generation mixes that can meet emission reduction targets in Indonesia. We estimate the optimal generation mix, costs, and emissions from three scenarios, namely existing power plant planning, and 11% and 14% emission reductions in Indonesia’s electricity sector. The estimations are based on linear programming, input-output analysis, and life-cycle analysis, integrated into an agent-based modeling (ABM) platform. The simulation results confirm the existing power plant planning, which is dominated by coal-based power plants, as the lowest-cost scenario in the short-term; however, this scenario also produces the highest emissions. Emission reduction scenarios have lower emissions due to a higher share of renewables and, therefore, the Indonesian electricity system is robust from fossil fuel price increases. In the long-term, costs incurred in the emission reduction scenarios will be lower than electricity generation costs under the existing power plant planning. Our findings should be a basis for re-evaluating energy policies, power plant planning, and the research agenda in Indonesia.
Keyword: linear programming, agent-based modelling (ABM), input-output analysis, life-cycle analysis
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Tanoto, Yusak, and Daniel Rohi. "Energy and Environment Implications of Long-Term Power Development Involving Renewable Energy: A Case of Timor Island, Indonesia." Applied Mechanics and Materials 815 (November 2015): 444–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.815.444.
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This paper presents a long-term electricity energy supply-demand model of Timor Island, Indonesia. Implications of projected demand growth within the observed area towards the available supply as well as the amount of CO2 emission is taken into account. As its main objective is to review and to present initial comparison of the long-term electricity planning prepared by the utility, the analysis is carried out using the bottom-up energy system model. Unlike the common electricity long-term demand projection that is usually constructed based on the factors related to the electricity growth, the model is developed based on the simple projection considering historical electricity demand users. According to the analysis, the planned power plants would not able to meet the elecricity demand in the case of high growth demand scenario. The variation of CO2 emission that is obtained from the considered scenarios is also shown.
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El-Fakdi, Andres, and Josep Lluis de la Rosa. "Analysis of Nature-Inspired Algorithms for Long-Term Digital Preservation." Mathematics 9, no. 18 (September 16, 2021): 2279. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math9182279.
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Digital preservation is a research area devoted to keeping digital assets preserved and usable for many years. Out of the many approaches to digital preservation, the present research article follows a new object-centered digital preservation paradigm where digital objects share part of the responsibility for preservation: they can move, replicate, and evolve to a higher-quality format inside a digital ecosystem. In the new framework, the behavior of digital objects needs to be modeled in order to obtain the best preservation strategy. Thus, digital objects are programmed with the mission of their own long-term self-preservation, which entails being accessible and reproducible by users at any time in the future regardless of frequent technological changes due to software and hardware upgrades. Three nature-inspired computational intelligence algorithms, based on the collective behavior of decentralized and self-organized systems, were selected for the modeling approach: multipopulation genetic algorithm, ant colony optimization, and a virus-based algorithm. TiM, a simulated environment for running distributed digital ecosystems, was used to perform the experiments. The results map the relation between the models and the expected object diversity obtained in short- and mid-term digital preservation scenarios. Comparing the results, the best performance corresponded to the multipopulation genetic algorithm. The article aims to be a first step in the digital self-preservation field. Building nature-inspired model behaviors is a good approach and opens the door to future tests with other AI-based methods.
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Washington, Erica, Ashley Terry, Julie Hand, and Alexa Ramirez. "Modeling Transmission of Human Metapneumovirus in a Long-Term Care Facility." Infection Control & Hospital Epidemiology 41, S1 (October 2020): s318—s319. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/ice.2020.914.
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Background: In September 2019, the Louisiana Department of Health (LDH) was notified of a possible outbreak of influenza in a nursing home. Upon investigation, the infectious agent was determined to be human metapneumovirus (HMPV). By the conclusion of the outbreak, 35 (31.3%) symptomatic cases were identified of which 15 were laboratory-confirmed HMPV. Public health coordination, infection control interventions, environmental cleaning audits, halting new admissions, and ceasing group activities are credited with stopping transmission. Considering the high attack rate, LDH epidemiologists examined scenarios wherein the aforementioned interventions were not utilized. The aim of this analysis is to describe transmission of HMPV in a 112-bed nursing home using mathematical models under conditions wherein interventions were not readily implemented. Methods: Two deterministic and 1 stochastic susceptible–preinfectious–infectious–recovered (SEIR) models are presented. Although recovered persons can be susceptible to HMPV following an infection experience, the potential for reinfection was not considered for this analysis. Fixed variables considered include a 5-day incubation period, basic reproduction number of 2, 14-day infectious period, and 112 susceptible patients. Three counterfactual modeling conditions are considered: delaying notification of an outbreak to public health epidemiologists (model 1), staff hand hygiene compliance of 50% (model 2), and continuing to accept new admissions (model 3). Average rate of recovery per day was and other metrics are used to demonstrate the number of susceptible individuals. Excel workbooks developed by Vynnycky and White (2010) were used for analysis. Results: In model 1, the average rate of onset of infectiousness per day = 0.20, and the average recovery rate per day = 0.07. With no notification to public health epidemiologists, all 112 patients would have been infected with HMPV after 94 days. The reproductive number was doubled to 4 in model 2 to posit poor healthcare worker hand hygiene of 50% compliance. Given this, the number of days until all patients are infected with HMPV decreases to 39 days. Finally, the stochastic scenario (model 3) demonstrates that the number of newly infected persons per day = 0.86, and the hazard rate for infectious individuals becoming immune = 0.07. Conclusions: Infection control interventions are extremely useful for containing viral respiratory diseases for which there is no vaccine or treatment. Mathematical models can communicate utility of public health interventions in the presence of outbreaks. These models demonstrate worst-case scenarios for infection spread.Funding: NoneDisclosures: None
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Tishchenko, I. A. "SCENARIOS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE WORLD ECONOMY: ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT ON INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION." Economic Science and Humanities 363, no. 4 (2022): 93–101. http://dx.doi.org/10.33979/2073-7424-2022-363-4-93-101.
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The development of the economy is closely interrelated with a variety of subjective and objective factors. Assessment and forecasting the scenario of the development of the world economy requires careful analysis, especially during the period of digitalization of the economy, it is extremely difficult to form a long-term forecast. This article presents the main scenarios for the development of the world economy, taking into account negative and positive factors.
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Dawson, R. J., M. E. Dickson, R. J. Nicholls, J. W. Hall, M. J. A. Walkden, P. K. Stansby, M. Mokrech, et al. "Integrated analysis of risks of coastal flooding and cliff erosion under scenarios of long term change." Climatic Change 95, no. 1-2 (January 30, 2009): 249–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9532-8.
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Shah, Dhvani, Victoria Paly, Andrew Briggs, Manpreet Sidhu, Esprit Ma, and Vijayveer Bonthapally. "Assessing the impact of restricted follow-up and small sample sizes on survival estimations in prostate cancer using registry data." Journal of Clinical Oncology 34, no. 7_suppl (March 1, 2016): 294. http://dx.doi.org/10.1200/jco.2016.34.7_suppl.294.
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294 Background: Economic evaluations in oncology aim to assess the value of new therapies in the long term based on clinical trial data that often have restricted follow-up times (< 5 years) and small sample sizes (< 500 patients). This requires the use of extrapolation assumptions on long-term survival that go beyond the observed data. In this analysis, differences in survival extrapolation methods are tested in samples of sizes and follow-up reflecting typical clinical trials against a background of known survival in prostate cancer from a US based cancer registry. Methods: Data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) registry on long-term survival in patients with stage IV prostate cancer were employed. The data set comprised those patients diagnosed between 1988 and 2003, with follow-up data available until 2012. Additional survival for those who received surgery (compared to those who did not), was estimated based on extrapolations using standard parametric statistical models (exponential, Weibull, log-logistic, log-normal, Gamma) fitted to the observed data. Survival analyses were run for 5 sample size scenarios (n = 27,670, 1000, 500, 200, 50) and 6 follow-up scenarios (follow-up years = 25, 20, 10, 5, 2, 1) yielding 30 combination scenarios. Performance of the methods was tested relative to the maximum follow-up, maximum sample size scenario (i.e. reference case) from the SEER registry. Results: Log-logistic and log-normal models were associated with flat tails which led to inflated survival estimations. For scenarios with smaller sizes, gamma models often did not converge. Exponential models were the most frequently reported as best model fit (in approximately 50% of scenarios). Also, gains in OS were consistent when exponential models were selected, and closely matched gain in OS from the reference case. Conclusions: Since clinical trials in oncology are often associated with small patient sample sizes and restricted follow-up, selecting an exponential model may lead to the most consistent and stable results based on the experiment constructed here. Further research should confirm these results for other types of cancer.
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Ha, Joonhyeok, Heeseong Park, and Gunhui Chung. "Snow Vulnerability Analysis in the Korean Peninsula using RCP Climate Change Scenarios." Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation 20, no. 4 (August 31, 2020): 251–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.9798/kosham.2020.20.4.251.
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Snow vulnerability analysis was implemented using 400 years of controlled RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 scenarios in the following divided periods: the former period (2011-2040), middle period (2041-2070), and later period (2071-2100). Data from a total of 74 meteorological stations were used and the Thiessen polygon method was applied in the areas without stations. The indicators were classified into the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) structure, and the weight for vulnerability analysis was calculated using the entropy method. As snow vulnerability analysis was implemented for the future scenarios, it was difficult to determine social and economic factors as indicators; thus, only predicted weather data and population trends were considered. As a result, the rankings for snow vulnerable areas were determined for each period and scenario. Overall, snow vulnerability would decrease due to the decrease in long-term heavy snowfall in climate change scenarios. However, increased snow vulnerability is also expected in Sejong-si and the western coastal area due to a rise in population and snow depth in the future. Based on this, disaster prevention projects considering the characteristics of the region in the future could be implemented.
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Atkinson, William, Sebastian D. Eastham, Y. H. Henry Chen, Jennifer Morris, Sergey Paltsev, C. Adam Schlosser, and Noelle E. Selin. "A tool for air pollution scenarios (TAPS v1.0) to enable global, long-term, and flexible study of climate and air quality policies." Geoscientific Model Development 15, no. 20 (October 21, 2022): 7767–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7767-2022.
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Abstract. Air pollution is a major sustainability challenge – and future anthropogenic precursor and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will greatly affect human well-being. While mitigating climate change can reduce air pollution both directly and indirectly, distinct policy levers can affect these two interconnected sustainability issues across a wide range of scenarios. We help to assess such issues by presenting a public Tool for Air Pollution Scenarios (TAPS) that can flexibly assess pollutant emissions from a variety of climate and air quality actions, through the tool's coupling with socioeconomic modeling of climate change mitigation. In this study, we develop and implement TAPS with three components: recent global and fuel-specific anthropogenic emissions inventories, scenarios of emitting activities to 2100 from the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, and emissions intensity trends based on recent scenario data from the Greenhouse Gas–Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model. An initial application shows that in scenarios with less climate and pollution policy ambition, near-term air quality improvements from existing policies are eclipsed by long-term emissions increases – particularly from industrial processes that combine sharp production growth with less stringent pollution controls in developing regions. Additional climate actions would substantially reduce air pollutant emissions related to fossil fuel (such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides), while further pollution controls would lead to larger reductions for ammonia and organic carbon (OC). Future applications of TAPS could explore diverse regional and global policies that affect these emissions, using pollutant emissions results to drive global atmospheric chemical transport models to study the scenarios' health impacts.
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Morales, Nelson, Sebastián Seguel, Alejandro Cáceres, Enrique Jélvez, and Maximiliano Alarcón. "Incorporation of Geometallurgical Attributes and Geological Uncertainty into Long-Term Open-Pit Mine Planning." Minerals 9, no. 2 (February 13, 2019): 108. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/min9020108.
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Long-term open-pit mine planning is a critical stage of a mining project that seeks to establish the best strategy for extracting mineral resources, based on the assumption of several economic, geological and operational parameters. Conventionally, during this process it is common to use deterministic resource models to estimate in situ ore grades and to assume average values for geometallurgical variables. These assumptions cause risks that may negatively impact on the planned production and finally on the project value. This paper addresses the long-term planning of an open-pit mine considering (i) the incorporation of geometallurgical models given by equiprobable scenarios that allow for the assessing of the spatial variability and the uncertainty of the mineral deposit, and (ii) the use of stochastic integer programming model for risk analysis in direct block scheduling, considering the scenarios simultaneously. The methodology comprises two stages: pit optimization to generate initial ultimate pit limit per scenario and then to define a single ultimate pit based on reliability, and stochastic life-of-mine production scheduling to define block extraction sequences within the reliability ultimate pit to maximize the expected discounted value and minimize the total cost of production objective deviations. To evaluate the effect of the geometallurgical information, both stages consider different optimization strategies that depend on the economic model to be used and the type of processing constraints established in the scheduling. The results show that geometallurgical data with their associated uncertainties can change the decisions regarding pit limits and production schedule and, consequently, to impact the financial outcomes.
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Matera, Nicoletta, Domenico Mazzeo, Cristina Baglivo, and Paolo Maria Congedo. "Climate Change Will Affect Photovoltaic Performances? A Long-Term Analysis from 1971 to 2100 in Italy." Energies 15, no. 24 (December 16, 2022): 9546. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en15249546.
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This work aims to assess the impacts of climate change on photovoltaic (PV) electricity in two Italian cities, with different latitudes and Köppen–Geiger climate classifications. This was undertaken using the recent EURO-CORDEX set of high-resolution climate projections and PV power generation models, implemented on TRNSYS software. Data for two variables (surface air temperature and solar radiation) were analysed over a long period from 1971 to 2100. For future periods, two of the Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report were considered. In both RCP scenarios and both locations, it is estimated that the yearly PV energy produced in the future period will not undergo significant variations on average given that the rate of decrease is foreseen almost constant; instead, a slight reduction in the PV energy was detected in the past period. It can be concluded that the PV market in Italy will grow in the next years considering that the reduction in the foreseen PV purchase costs will be also supported by the slight positive effect of climate change on PV manufacturability.
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Huang, J. J., S. W. Chen, J. R. Wang, C. Shih, and H. T. Lin. "LOCA analysis of BWR-4/Mark-I nuclear power plant with TRACE." Kerntechnik 86, no. 2 (March 30, 2021): 128–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/kern-2020-0065.
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Abstract This study established an RCS-Containment coupled model that integrates the reactor coolant system (RCS) and the containment system by using the TRACE code. The coupled model was used in both short-term and long-term loss of coolant accident (LOCA) analyses. Besides, the RELAP5/CONTAN model that only contains the containment system was also developed for comparison. For short-term analysis, three kinds of LOCA scenarios were investigated: the recirculation line break (RCLB), the main steam line break (MSLB), and the feedwater line break (FWLB). For long-term analysis, the dry-well and suppression pool temperature responses of the RCLB were studied. The analysis results of RELAP5/CONTAN and TRACE models are benchmarked with those of FSAR and RELAP5/GOTHIC models, and it appears that the results of the above four models are consistent in general trends.
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Correia, Antonia, Nuno Videira, Inês Alves, Catarina Ramires, Rui Subtil, and Manuel Victor Martins. "Tourism Golf Scenarios: The Algarve Case." Tourism and Hospitality Research 6, no. 3 (May 2006): 179–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.thr.6050015.
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Sport tourism, in particular golf, is an emerging form of tourism. This is the case in the Algarve region where golf has significant economic, social and environmental impacts. This paper presents a sustainability assessment framework developed for the Algarve's golf courses. Sustainable golf development (SGD) was analysed from an integrated perspective: economic, financial and environmental. A scenario methodology was used to measure the long-term golf development impacts at different supply levels, given the core indicators defined for each dimension of analysis. It was concluded that SGD in the Algarve should be framed within high service and environmental quality standards, with a supply of between 29 and 41 golf courses.
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Sordo-Ward, Alvaro, Isabel Granados, Ana Iglesias, and Luis Garrote. "Blue Water in Europe: Estimates of Current and Future Availability and Analysis of Uncertainty." Water 11, no. 3 (February 26, 2019): 420. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w11030420.
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This study presents a regional assessment of future blue water availability in Europe under different assumptions. The baseline period (1960 to 1999) is compared to the near future (2020 to 2059) and the long-term future (2060 to 2099). Blue water availability is estimated as the maximum amount of water supplied at a certain point of the river network that satisfies a defined demand, taking into account specified reliability requirements. Water availability is computed with the geospatial high-resolution Water Availability and Adaptation Policy Assessment (WAAPA) model. The WAAPA model definition for this study extends over 6 million km2 in Europe and considers almost 4000 sub-basins in Europe. The model takes into account 2300 reservoirs larger than 5 hm3, and the dataset of Hydro 1k with 1700 sub-basins. Hydrological scenarios for this study were taken from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-Comparison Project and included simulations of five global climate models under different Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios. The choice of method is useful for evaluating large area regional studies that include high resolution on the systems´ characterization. The results highlight large uncertainties associated with a set of local water availability estimates across Europe. Climate model uncertainties for mean annual runoff and potential water availability were found to be higher than scenario uncertainties. Furthermore, the existing hydraulic infrastructure and its management have played an important role by decoupling water availability from hydrologic variability. This is observed for all climate models, the emissions scenarios considered, and for near and long-term future. The balance between water availability and withdrawals is threatened in some regions, such as the Mediterranean region. The results of this study contribute to defining potential challenges in water resource systems and regional risk areas.
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Chen, Shi Lei, Xue Yuan Li, Kai Bian, Ying Wang Zhao, and Bo Li. "Analysis of Sustainable Deep Groundwater Development Scenarios in Huantai County." Advanced Materials Research 955-959 (June 2014): 3040–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.955-959.3040.
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On the basis of the geology and hydrogeology, a three-dimensional numerical groundwater model in the study area was developed to evaluate the deep groundwater resources and avoid the groundwater level declining. According to the long-term water supply plan, water resources characteristics and exploitation status quo of Huantai county, three kinds of groundwater utilization scheme had been designed. The best sustainable groundwater exploitation scheme is determined by using the numerical model to simulate three kinds of mining schemes and analyze the corresponding groundwater flow field. The result shows that maintaining the status quo mining conditions will make the groundwater level decline further. Only reducing industrial exploitation and keeping domestic water mining can improve the conditions, but still difficult to solve the problem. The aim of utilization of deep groundwater can achieve only by reducing disordered water exploitation for production and living.
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Kazantsev, A. "Central Asia: A Comprehensive Crisis and Scenarios for the Future." Journal of International Analytics, no. 3 (September 28, 2015): 34–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.46272/2587-8476-2015-0-3-34-55.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The paper suggests a systemic analysis of the perspectives of development of situation in Post-Soviet Central Asia. Interconnection between the tendencies in different spheres (political, economic, military, social and demographic) is analyzed. The author ascertain the fact of complex and multilateral crisis and also states high degree of uncertainty of further development of regional situation, which is indicated by a great variability of scenarios of further development. The analysis is fulfilled both in short- and long-term perspectives. The study is carried out in two steps: for each of temporal perspectives respective drivers that presently exist are selected. Also, potential qualitative discontinuities that can lead to principal changes of situation are defined within scenario analysis.
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O'Neill, Brian C., Claudia Tebaldi, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, George Hurtt, Reto Knutti, et al. "The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6." Geoscientific Model Development 9, no. 9 (September 28, 2016): 3461–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract. Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.
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Sun, Hongjie, Shuwen Niu, and Xiqiang Wang. "Future Regional Contributions for Climate Change Mitigation: Insights from Energy Investment Gap and Policy Cost." Sustainability 11, no. 12 (June 17, 2019): 3341. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11123341.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Mitigating climate change and ensuring regional equity development is equitable are matters of global concern. Systematic and in-depth research into theseissues is seldom conducted. In this research we combine qualitative and quantitative studies and use six state-of-the-art energy-economy analysis models and four long term scenarios to explore the distribution of regional contributions for climate change mitigation in the future. We focus on the energy investment gap and policy cost. The study’s conclusion is that, under the assumption of carbon tax as a source of energy investment from 2025, the global positive energy investment gap in the climate change mitigation scenario will not appear until around 2035–2040. Asia and OECD90+EU (Countries from the OECD 1990, EU and its candidates) are the regions that will have a significant direct impact on the global energy investment gap under climate policies in the future. However, from the perspective of the relative value (the percentage of the energy investment gap relative to the energy investment in the Current Policies (CPol) scenario), Asia will contribute the most to the global energy investment gap under the climate stability policies. Under the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) scenario, Asia will contribute the most in the near term and REF will contribute the most in the medium term.The findings show that OECD90+EUwill bear more cost in the pledges scenario, and Asia will bear more cost in the climate stability scenarios in the medium term. Contrary to the common sense expectation, the developed regions will contribute the least in terms of the proportion of the policy cost to the respective economic aggregates under the climate stability scenarios in the medium and long term, but the opposite is true in the developing regions. By and large, from the perspective of the current climate change mitigation policies, the developed regions and developing regions will achieve a win-win situation in the long run, but the relative contribution of the developed regions is not as great as was previously expected. These novel findings should prove to be useful to policy makers when developing transition strategies for climate change mitigation.
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Bailey, Roger C., and Daryl L. Cross. "THE RADIATING EFFECTS OF A PERSON'S RELIGIOUSNESS'." Social Behavior and Personality: an international journal 18, no. 2 (January 1, 1990): 201–5. http://dx.doi.org/10.2224/sbp.1990.18.2.201.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Previous research has indicated that physical attractiveness can “radiate” or spill over onto an interaction partner. This study examined the possible radiating effect of a newly discovered social stereotype, religiousness. Males (N=56) and females (N=119) college students initially rated the religiousness of a male target and then each subject read one of five scenarios describing the male's dating partner's religious background. The female's religious background was described in four ways: 1) Always religious, 2) Recent religious convert, 3) Recent religious heretic, 4) Never religious, and a fifth control condition which omitted information on the female's religious background. Following presentation of the scenarios, subjects again rated the boyfriend's religiousness. Analysis of pre- vs. post- scenario change scores indicated the boyfriend's religiousness increased following knowledge of the girlfriend's long-term or recent religious involvement (positive radiation effect) but decreased following knowledge of the girlfriend's long-term or recent nonreligious involvement (negative radiation effect). It was concluded that the radiation effects identified can serve to further expand our understanding of the interpersonal perceptions people hold of the religious and nonreligious.
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Liu, Yujie, Qi Yu, Zihan Huang, Weichun Ma, and Yan Zhang. "Identifying Key Potential Source Areas for Ambient Methyl Mercaptan Pollution Based on Long-Term Environmental Monitoring Data in an Industrial Park." Atmosphere 9, no. 12 (December 17, 2018): 501. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos9120501.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Precise source identification for ambient pollution incidents in industrial parks were often difficult due to limited measurements. Source area analysis method was one of the applicable source identification methods, which could provide potential source areas under these circumstances. However, a source area usually covered several sources and the method was unable to identify the real one. This article introduces a case study on the statistical source identification of methyl mercaptan based on the long-term measurements, in 2014, in an industrial park. A procedure for statistical source area analysis was established, which contains independent pollution episode extraction, source area calculation scenario definition, meteorological data selection, and source area statistical analysis. A total of 414 violation records were detected by five monitors inside the park. Three kinds of calculation scenarios were found and, finally, three key source areas were revealed. The typical scenarios of source area calculations were described in detail. The characteristics of the statistical source areas for all pollution episodes were examined. Finally, the applicability of the method, as well as the source of uncertainties, was discussed. This study shows that more concentrated source areas can be identified through the statistical source area method if several excessive emission sources exist in an industrial park.