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1
Fisher, P. G., and K. F. Wallis. "Seasonality in large-scale macroeconomic models." Long Range Planning 26, no. 1 (February 1993): 151. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0024-6301(93)90282-k.
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2
Debortoli, Davide, Junior Maih, and Ricardo Nunes. "LOOSE COMMITMENT IN MEDIUM-SCALE MACROECONOMIC MODELS: THEORY AND APPLICATIONS." Macroeconomic Dynamics 18, no. 1 (August 30, 2012): 175–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100512000326.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This paper proposes a method and a toolkit for solving optimal policy with imperfect commitment. As opposed to the existing literature, our method can be employed in the medium- and large-scale models typically used in monetary policy. We apply our method to the Smets and Wouters model [American Economic Review97(3), 586–606 (2007)], for which we show that imperfect commitment has relevant implications for interest rate setting, the sources of business cycle fluctuations, and welfare.
3
Gupta, Rangan, and Alain Kabundi. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables in a small open economy: a comparison between small- and large-scale models." Journal of Forecasting 29, no. 1-2 (January 2010): 168–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/for.1143.
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4
Justiniano, Alejandro, and Giorgio E. Primiceri. "The Time-Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations." American Economic Review 98, no. 3 (May 1, 2008): 604–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.98.3.604.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
We investigate the sources of the important shifts in the volatility of US macroeconomic variables in the postwar period. To this end, we propose the estimation of DSGE models allowing for time variation in the volatility of the structural innovations. We apply our estimation strategy to a large-scale model of the business cycle and find that shocks specific to the equilibrium condition of investment account for most of the sharp decline in volatility of the last two decades. (JEL C51, E32)
5
NEPOMIASTCHY, PIERRE. "Moduleco, software for macroeconomic modelization." MAUSAM 36, no. 2 (April 5, 2022): 173–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v36i2.1834.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The paper describes the Moduleco system which is designed to facilitate the construction and the use of large scale (1000 equations or more) dynamic and non-linear macroecenomic models.
The Moduleco system will include a software for the management of the time-series data base, a special modeling language for the model equations Input, a special common language to active the tasks, several tools of formal computation and an interactive language for easy data input-output and for easy scenario generation.
The paper describes also the mathematical algorithms which are to be included in the Moduleco system. Indeed, we have noticed that most of the macroeconomic models can be put in a quasi triangular form: possibly after renumbering of the variables and equations, there exist a small set of variables, called loop variables, such as for given values of them, the remaining model is triangular and can be solved directly. As we have shown that quasi-triangular models can be simulated and optimized. much faster than general ones, the Moduleco system will include methods for automatic renumbering of variables and equations in order to minimize the number of loop variables.
The simulation and optimization algorithms will then be adapted to take into account this quasi triangularity. Experiments made on 4 concrete macroeconomic models have shown the efficiency of the proposed methods.
Moreover, the adjoint variable technique, well known in optimal control theory, has been adapted to the structure of macroeconomic models. On the example of the French STAR model (139 equations), it is shown that this technique is 106 times faster to compute the gradient than the finite difference technique generally used by economists.
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Voshchikova, Natalia. "The higher education and the sphere of labor in digital economy: a new mechanism of interaction." Moscow University Economics Bulletin, no. 5 (October 31, 2021): 249–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.38050/013001052021512.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This article explores the concept of macroeconomic stability originated from the theory of general economic equilibrium (GEE) by L. Walras. Modern macroeconomic models that do not contradict the GEE, a implement the principles of consistency of micro- and macroeconomic analysis, the interrelation of markets, and the effectiveness of market mechanism. Economic fluctuations generated by shocks are in dialectical unity with the state of equilibrium. The aim of macroeconomic policy is to maintain equilibrium (macroeconomic stability) through inflation targeting and effective public debt management. Within the framework of this policy a number of goals are met including the control over inflationary expectations, strengthening confidence in the central bank, and overcoming inflation. However, low inflation rates can produce liquidity traps, thus causing a need to adjust monetary policy and develop its new instruments. At the same time, the global crises of the 21st century, the Great Recession of 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic, prompts to re-evaluate the contradictions between the theoretical concept of equilibrium and the real state of the economy, as well as measures needed to stabilize it during a recession. The policy of overcoming the crisis in 2020 includes large-scale discretionary fiscal and monetary stimulus according to Keynesian recipes, in the absence of which the loss of jobs, closure of enterprises, and lack of financial stability are inevitable. The gap between theory and reality, as it happened during the Great Depression almost a hundred years ago, once again raises the questions of further development of macroeconomics. The article may be of interest to teachers and students interested in the prospects for the development of scientific knowledge in this area.
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Kumar, Manoj. "Profitability of Indian Firms in Foreign Direct Investment." International Journal of Asian Business and Information Management 8, no. 1 (January 2017): 51–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijabim.2017010104.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This paper identifies key factors that determine the profitability of Indian firms abroad by using panel-data regression models on new, large-scale, subsidiary-level data over the 2009-2015 period. The results show that the determinants of subsidiary profits differ across host regions, suggesting that the economic and institutional factors specific to host regions influence significantly the profit performances of overseas subsidiaries. While the size effect on the subsidiary profitability is present in all the regions, other effects, such as experience, local supplier networks, local sales and macroeconomic conditions affect the performance of subsidiaries in a different manner by region.
8
Haider, Adnan, and Safdar Ullah Khan. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan." Pakistan Development Review 47, no. 4II (December 1, 2008): 963–1008. http://dx.doi.org/10.30541/v47i4iipp.963-1008.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
In recent years there has been a growing interest in academics, international policy institutions and central banks1 in developing small-to-medium, even large-scale, open economy macroeconomic models called Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models based on new-Keynesian framework.2 The term DSGE was originally used by Kydland and Prescott (1982) in their seminal contribution on Real Business Cycle (RBC) model. The RBC model is based on neoclassical framework with micro-founded optimisation behaviour of economic agents with flexible prices. One of the critical assumptions of this model is that fluctuations of real quantities are caused by real shock only; that is, only stochastic technology or government spending shocks play their role. Later research in DSGE models however included Keynesian short-run macroeconomic features (called nominal rigidities), such as Calvo (1983) type staggered pricing behaviour and Taylor (1980) type wage contracts. Hence this new DSGE modeling framework labeled as new-neoclassical synthesis or new-Keynesian modeling paradigm. 3 This new approach combines micro-foundations of both households and firms optimisation problems and with a large collection of both nominal and real (price/wage) rigidities that provide plausible short-run dynamic macroeconomic fluctuations with a fully articulated description of the monetary policy transmission mechanism; see, for instance, Christiano, et al. (2005) and Smets and Wouters (2003). The key advantage of modern DSGE models, over traditional reduce form macroeconomic models, is that the structural interpretation of their parameters allows to overcome the famous Lucas critique (1976).4 Traditional models contained equations linking variables of interest of explanatory factors such as economic policy variables. One of the uses of these models was therefore to examine how a change in economic policy affected these variables of interest, other things being equal. In using DSGE models for practical purposes and to recommend how central banks and policy institutions should react to the short-run fluctuations, it is necessary to first examine the possible sources,5 as well as to evaluate the degree of nominal and real rigidities present in the economy. In advanced economies, like US and EURO area, it is easy to determine the degree of nominal and real rigidities as these economies are fully documented. In developing economies like Pakistan, where most of economic activities are un-documented (also labeled as informal economy, black economy, or underground economy), it is very difficult to determine the exact degree of nominal and real rigidities present in the economy. However, one can approximate results using own judgments and through well defined survey based methods
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Gelrud, Ya D., and E. B. Kibalov. "ASSESSMENT OF THE STRATEGIC EFFICIENCY OF LARGE-SCALE INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS IN A SITUATION OF UNCERTAINTY: A PROJECT APPROACH." Bulletin of the South Ural State University. Ser. Computer Technologies, Automatic Control & Radioelectronics 21, no. 3 (August 2021): 113–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.14529/ctcr210311.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The article deals with the problems of assessing the macroeconomic efficiency of large-scale projects at the stage that is commonly called pre-investment. The necessity of taking into account the factor of radical uncertainty when evaluating large-scale railway projects is justified. The pur-pose of the study. To show that the effects generated by large-scale projects affect the scenario of the development of the economy hosting the project. In this problematic situation, a methodology is proposed for evaluating and identifying the most preferable project, taking into account the factors of radical (improbability) uncertainty. Materials and methods. The criteria for evaluating projects at three levels are analyzed: macro-, meso- and micro; at the same time, the tools of applied non-system analysis are used, combining logical-heuristic and economic-mathematical models of mak-ing complex project decisions. Results. A structural evaluation model has been developed, which is a hybrid consisting of two blocks. The first block is a logical-heuristic submodel for evaluating large-scale investment projects, the second block is an economic-mathematical submodel that displays the external environment of projects. The models interact at the pre-investment stage of the project lifecycle in the mode of a strategic game at the macro level. The first as an information base is based on expert estimates of the costs and results of projects that claim to be implemented in the long term, the second-mainly on statistical information from the country and regions. The im-pact of a new large-scale investment project on the model of the Russian economy is evaluated and the positive or negative impact of each (from among the considered ones) on the target function of the economic model is identified. Conclusion. The article comments on the results of experimental calculations using a hybrid model and, using the example of railway transport, formulates recom-mendations for its use in the development of substantiating materials for large-scale projects of fe-deral significance.
10
Patrakeeva, Olga. "Economic and Mathematical Modeling of the Direct Effects of Large-Scale Infrastructure Projects on Developing Territories." Vestnik Volgogradskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Serija 3. Ekonomika. Ekologija, no. 2 (July 2019): 78–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.15688/jvolsu3.2019.2.7.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The problem of assessing the effects of infrastructure projects for territories is debatable. Modeling experience has been accumulated today, and elaborated macroeconomic models allow to identify causal relationships between the indicators of transport development and economic growth. The goal of this article is to define a simulation model of assessing the impact of transport projects on the economic growth of Krasnodar Krai exemplified by the Crimean Bridge project. The solution of this scientific problem requires taking into account different factors and complicated interrelationships within the framework of the regional social and economic system under consideration, using methods of system analysis and tools of economic and mathematical simulation. The simulation model reflects the scenario parameters of the capital management policy, highway transport freight turnover, highway transport freight turnover directly connected with the construction of Kerch Straight Bridge, carriage of goods by railway transport, carriage of goods by railway transport directly connected with the construction of Kerch Straight Bridge. The interrelations of this model’s parameters are established by the econometrics methods. In accordance with the produced scenarios the expected median values of the additional increment of the Krasnodar Krai GRP due to the increment of transportation associated with the Crimean Bridge operation are in the range between 0.97 % and 1.1 %. The most conservative scenario presumes the median value of 0.97 % and lower limit of 0.8 %. This tool can be used to assess the direct effect of railway and road construction for other Russian regions. The proposed simulation model will be further expanded by including further distribution functions of scenario variables and additional structural relationships.
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RICHARDS, GORDON R. "FRACTALITY IN A MACROECONOMIC MODEL: NONLINEAR OSCILLATION AROUND A LONG-TERM EQUILIBRIUM." Fractals 10, no. 02 (June 2002): 235–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218348x02001063.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Recent studies have established that macroeconomic time series exhibit fractal properties. Empirical tests here demonstrate that interest rates, exchange rates, output and prices all show evidence of a non-integer fractal dimension. Several classes of volatility models widely used in econometrics can give rise to fractality. In the paradigm proposed here, fractality results from multiplicative relationships between residual noise terms in simultaneous equation systems. The emergence of fractality in a large-scale econometric model is analyzed. The model uses well-established structural equations, so that all variables converge toward their equilibrium paths in the long run. The forecasted paths are then embedded in noise, and the model is re-simulated at a higher frequency. The simultaneity of the model equations causes the embedding noise to take on fractal properties. Multi-scaling demonstrates that the model simulations reproduce the fractal properties of the real-world time series reasonably well. Finally, it is possible to forecast at short horizons using an algorithm that exploits two aspects of fractality, scaling symmetries and intermittency. Ratios of rates of change capture proximate symmetries. A logit regression is used to predict the conditional probability of extreme events.
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Gross, Marco, Jerome Henry, and Willi Semmler. "DESTABILIZING EFFECTS OF BANK OVERLEVERAGING ON REAL ACTIVITY—AN ANALYSIS BASED ON A THRESHOLD MCS-GVAR." Macroeconomic Dynamics 22, no. 7 (July 11, 2017): 1750–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100516001024.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
We investigate the consequences of overleveraging and the potential for destabilizing effects arising from financial- and real-sector interactions. In a theoretical framework, we model overleveraging and demonstrate how a highly leveraged banking system can lead to unstable dynamics and downward spirals. Inspired by models developed by Brunnermeier, Sannikov and Stein, we empirically measure the deviation-from-optimal-leverage for a sample of large EU banks. This measure of overleveraging is used to condition the joint dynamics of credit flows and macroeconomic activity in a large-scale regime change model: a Threshold Mixed-Cross-Section Global Vector Autoregressive (T-MCS-GVAR). The regime-switching component of the model is meant to make the relationship between credit and real activity dependent on the extent to which the banking system is overleveraged. We find significant nonlinearities as a function of overleverage. The farther the observed leverage in the banking system from optimal leverage, the more detrimental is the effect of a deleveraging shock on credit supply and economic activity.
13
Ejaz, Muhammad, and Javed Iqbal. "Estimation and Forecasting of Industrial Production Index." LAHORE JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS 26, no. 1 (January 1, 2021): 1–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.35536/lje.2021.v26.i1.a1.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
It is essential that policymakers consider cyclical changes in output. Monthly industrial production is one of the most important and commonly used macroeconomic indicators for this purpose. However, monthly estimates of industrial production are not available for Pakistan. Instead, policymakers rely on a large-scale manufacturing (LSM) index that accounts for only 10 percent of GDP. Another limitation of this index is that it accounts primarily for private sector industry, leaving out the direct public sector presence in industrial production. Economic policymakers rely heavily on the LSM index to gauge economic activity in Pakistan. In this study, we compute a new industrial production index (IPI) that extends to the whole industrial sector in Pakistan, incorporating additional information that the LSM index misses. Post-estimation, we build seven econometric models reflecting conditions in the real, financial, and external sectors to estimate year-on-year changes in the new IPI. Our results show that the root mean square error of the ARDL model reflecting financial conditions is lowest of the models tested, which included AR, VAR, and BVAR, across all horizons.
14
Ejaz, Muhammad, and Javed Iqbal. "Estimation and Forecasting of Industrial Production Index." LAHORE JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS 26, no. 1 (January 1, 2021): 1–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.35536/lje.2021.v26.i1.a1.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
It is essential that policymakers consider cyclical changes in output. Monthly industrial production is one of the most important and commonly used macroeconomic indicators for this purpose. However, monthly estimates of industrial production are not available for Pakistan. Instead, policymakers rely on a large-scale manufacturing (LSM) index that accounts for only 10 percent of GDP. Another limitation of this index is that it accounts primarily for private sector industry, leaving out the direct public sector presence in industrial production. Economic policymakers rely heavily on the LSM index to gauge economic activity in Pakistan. In this study, we compute a new industrial production index (IPI) that extends to the whole industrial sector in Pakistan, incorporating additional information that the LSM index misses. Post-estimation, we build seven econometric models reflecting conditions in the real, financial, and external sectors to estimate year-on-year changes in the new IPI. Our results show that the root mean square error of the ARDL model reflecting financial conditions is lowest of the models tested, which included AR, VAR, and BVAR, across all horizons.
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Melnyk, Yurii, and Vyacheslav Truba. "THE CONCEPTUAL ORIENTATION OF THE SYSTEM OF REGULATION OF INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT." Baltic Journal of Economic Studies 5, no. 3 (August 1, 2019): 125. http://dx.doi.org/10.30525/2256-0742/2019-5-3-125-134.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The industrial sector is the most important segment of the macroeconomic environment of the country, the performance of which depends on its functioning and development in the global economic environment. The development of industry in the national macroeconomic environment is possible at the expense of an effective regulatory system, which should have modern instrumental support that corresponds to modern trends in the development of global economic systems. The article is based on the theoretical and methodological foundations of the formation of a system for regulating the development of industry and defining its conceptual benchmarks in the conditions of transformation changes in the economy. Methodology. Legislative and normative documents, materials of periodicals, statistical data, and Internet resources were the information base of the study. The paper uses general scientific and special methods: monographic examination, generalization, systematization, economicstatistical analysis, and modelling. This allowed investigating the current state and possibilities of regulating the development of industry in different models of the regulatory system and the forms of its implementation, substantiating the conceptual foundations and directions of the transformation of the system of regulation of the development of the domestic industrial sector and criteria for evaluating its effectiveness. Results. It is proved that the process of regulating the development of industry in the national economy should be considered from the point of view of a systemic approach in the macroeconomic environment, where the basic elements of a defined system are the purpose, strategic guidelines and objectives, principles and limitations, regulatory functions, institutional actors that influence on industry and its structural units with the help of well-grounded tools. The expediency of assessing the system of regulation of industrial development based on the criteria of rationality, regulation, management, and efficiency is proved, and models of the corresponding analytical indicators are proposed. It is proved that the formation of the most perspective and effective mechanism of regulating the development of the industry is to find the optimal combination of vectors of rationality and efficiency in the implementation of all large-scale transformations in the system of regulation in the national macroeconomic environment. The alternative development options in the domestic industrial sector and the relevant conceptual guidelines for the regulation of the development of industry in the national macroeconomic environment are determined. Practical meaning. The introduction of these results in order to change the system of regulation of industrial development will contribute to ensuring the role of the industrial sector as the main driver of innovation and investment development of the country’s economy. Value/оriginality. The author’s definition of the process of regulating the development of industry from the standpoint of the system approach, proposed methodological approaches to the assessment of the effectiveness of the development regulation system according to criteria and indicators of rationality and manageability, is aimed at the further formation of system measures to create favourable conditions for the development of industry in the national macroeconomic environment.
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Vrontisi, Zoi, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Maria Kannavou, and Pantelis Capros. "Energy system transition and macroeconomic impacts of a European decarbonization action towards a below 2 °C climate stabilization." Climatic Change 162, no. 4 (May 3, 2019): 1857–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02440-7.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract The European Union has recently established the “Clean Energy for all Europeans” climate policy framework, aiming at the achievement of the European Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted to the Paris Agreement. The EU28 NDC includes a commitment for emission reductions in 2030 but also refers to an economy-wide effort towards 2050 so as to contribute effectively to the long-term mitigation of climate change. We discuss the respective EU28 emission pathways in the context of a well below 2 °C global climate stabilization target and estimate the macroeconomic impacts for the EU28 economy by considering alternative levels of climate action for major non-EU emitters. We employ two models, the technology-rich energy system model PRIMES, and the global large-scale hybrid computable general equilibrium model GEM-E3. The two models are soft linked so as to ensure a consistent and robust framework of analysis. We find that emission reductions in the energy supply sector are dominant up to 2030 while transport takes the lead in 2050. Transport and non-CO2 emissions are the main remaining emitting sources in 2050. We present the key decarbonization pillars and confirm that the impacts on the EU28 economy largely depend on the level of mitigation action adopted by the rest of the world and by the relative carbon intensity across regions. Due to asymmetric ambition of climate policies, a global implementation of NDCs results in economic losses for the EU28 when compared with a “pre-Paris” policy reference scenario, despite positive effects on energy-intensive and clean technology exports. On the contrary, we find that the region registers economic gains in the case of coordinated 2 °C global climate action.
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Sherstnev, Mikhail A. "On macroeconomic instability in commodity economy in the context of external shocks: some questions of theory and Russian experience." Theoretical and Practical Aspects of Management, no. 9 (August 24, 2020): 178–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.46486/0234-4505-2020-9-178-191.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The actual character of the research is based on the observation that the periods of financial instability during the last decade in Russia were determined by the specific features of the post-Soviet socio-economic model and their proper understanding is required for right choice of the instruments of anti-crisis policy. Such knowledge is becoming even more important under the oil shock and COVID-19 pandemic in the first half of 2020. The purpose is to provide systemic analysis of the crisis processes in the Russian economy in 2014-2016 as the combination of several interdependent economic processes specific for the large-scale resource export oriented economy. It raises the issue of potential recovery mechanism for such type of economy and such type of the crisis and analyses theoretical and methodological foundations for choice of anti-crisis policy instruments. The research methodology includes reference to the comparative study of systemic financial crises in South East Asia in 1997-1999 and Russian Federation in 2014-2016 and derivation of specific predictions of the third generation currency crises models which are relevant for the case of the Russian Federation in 2014-2016. The result includes the conclusions on the specific features of the potential recovery mechanism in such type of the crisis and the choice of anti-crisis policy instruments on different time horizons. It also outlines the issues for further research and open questions for macroeconomic policy debates.
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Chen, Hua, Sidong Zhao, Ping Zhang, Yong Zhou, and Kerun Li. "Dynamics and Driving Mechanism of Real Estate in China’s Small Cities: A Case Study of Gansu Province." Buildings 12, no. 10 (September 23, 2022): 1512. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/buildings12101512.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
(1) Background: China is beginning to see increasingly complex real estate development dynamics as urbanization, industrialization and globalization advance. As a key driver of economic and social development in China’s cities, real estate has created prosperity while facing the risk of capitalization and a “hard landing”, making it increasingly difficult to bring it under control. (2) Methods: a new approach that integrates “evolution dynamics–driving mechanism–policy design” is constructed based on the Boston Consulting Group matrix, exploratory spatial data analysis, GIS and Geodetector, and this paper empirically studies the dynamics and driving mechanism of real estate development based on the case study of small county-level cities in Gansu, China. (3) Results: Firstly, real estate development in Gansu is characterized by significant spatial differentiation, heterogeneity and autocorrelation, and its distribution pattern comes into being from unsynchronized macroeconomic, population, social, industrial, institutional and policy development interweaved with the real estate control. Secondly, the real estate is diversified in spatiotemporal evolution models, and the cold and hot cities of different models are in quite different geographical patterns with high spatial agglomeration. Thirdly, there are many driving factors affecting the distribution patterns in real estate. These factors are in complex relationships and they are classified into three categories of “Scale–Contribution–Comprehensive”-oriented driving factor and three sub-categories of “Key–Important–Auxiliary” factors. Fourthly, the factors show large differences in the interaction effects, with the real estate industry scale influencing factors being dominated by bifactor enhancement and the economic contribution influencing factors being dominated by non-linear enhancement. Notably, factors such as permanent resident population, urbanization and government revenue have a strong direct influence on the industry scale and economic contribution of real estate, and factors such as expenditure, output value of industry, urbanization rate and number of secondary schools all have a strong interactive influence. (4) Conclusions: The cities are divided into four policy areas of comprehensive development, contribution improvement, scale growth and free decision. Furthermore, differentiated and adaptive measures are proposed for each zoning, which significantly improves the accuracy and synergy of urban real estate management.
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Ziembińska, Paulina. "The importance of data revisions for statistical inference." Wiadomości Statystyczne. The Polish Statistician 66, no. 2 (February 26, 2021): 7–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0014.7387.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The aim of the study is a quantitative analysis of revisions conducted by means of a new, real-time macroeconomic dataset for Poland, designed on the basis of the Statistical bulletin (Biuletyn statystyczny) published by Statistics Poland, covering the period from as early as 1995 until 2017. Polish data have positively verified a number of hypotheses concerning the impact of data revisions on the modelling process. Procedures assessing the properties of time series can yield widely discrepant results, depending on the extent to which the applied data have been revised. A comparison of the fitted ARIMA models for series of initial and final data demonstrates that the fitted models are similar for the majority of variables. In the cases where the form of the model is identical for both series, the coefficients retain their scale and sign. Most differences between coefficients result from a different structure of the fitted model, which causes differences in the autoregressive structure and can have a considerable impact on the ex ante inference. A prognostic experiment confirmed these observations. For a large number of variables, the total impact of revisions on the forecasting process exceeds 10%. Extreme cases, where the impact goes beyond 100%, or situations where data have a direct impact on the forecast sign, are also relatively frequent. Taking these results into account by forecasters could significantly improve the quality of their predictions. The forecast horizon has a minor impact on these conclusions. The article is a continuation of the author's work from 2017.
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van de Werve, Ilka, Arjan Blokland, and Frank Weerman. "Crime, Families and the Economy: Micro-conditions as Moderator of Macro-effects." Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology 8, no. 1 (March 2022): 96–123. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40865-022-00191-1.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
AbstractSince the early 1990s, increasing attention is being paid to the impact of life course transitions on criminal behavior. However, individuals’ life courses do not evolve in a vacuum but rather in the broad context of societal characteristics and developments. In this paper, we analyze whether there is an effect of macroeconomic circumstances on individuals’ criminal careers and whether this effect is conditional on marital status and parenthood. We employ micro-level data from a Dutch large-scale longitudinal study and enrich these with macro-level data. Using logistic panel data models for criminal behavior, we distinguish three types of effects: the macro-effect of experiencing declining economic times, the micro-effect of family composition and the interaction effect, indicating whether the effect of economic decline is differentiated by marital status and parenthood. We quantify economic decline either as an increase in the unemployment rate (objective and backward-looking measure) or as a decrease in consumer confidence (subjective and forward-looking). First, we find that an increase in the unemployment rate has no effect on criminal careers, but a decrease in the consumer confidence is associated with an increase in individual-level crime. Next, we confirm earlier results that marriage has a negative effect on crime, while parenthood has no effect. Finally, our results indicate that the detrimental effect of decreasing consumer confidence on criminal behavior is nullified for married individuals.
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Mazaraki, Anatolіі, Svitlana Melnychenko, Liudmila Bovsh, Tetiana Tkachuk, Nataliia Zikiі, and Liudmyla Romanchuk. "FINANCIAL AND INVESTMENT PREDICATES OF SECURITY OF HOTEL REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT." Financial and credit activity problems of theory and practice 6, no. 47 (December 30, 2022): 182–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.55643/fcaptp.6.47.2022.3912.
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The article examines the level of safety of investments in hotel real estate, and also develops general recommendations regarding its provision. It is noted that the safety of investments is an integral concept, and its achievement of optimal indicators forms the investment attractiveness of the micro- and macroeconomic environment. It was found that the investment potential of hotel real estate has been decreasing since 2019 due to unavoidable factors, in particular, the coronavirus pandemic and large-scale military aggression on the territory of Ukraine, which caused significant risks of financial capital losses.A negative forecast regarding the level of investment attractiveness of the hotel sector was found, verified on the basis of the method of scanning horizon, which is aggravated by the uncertainty of the war timeframe and the impossibility of predicting the scale of the destruction of social and tourist infrastructure.Globalization and digitalization of all aspects of the economy make it possible to form priority directions for the formation of safe relations regarding the investment of hotel projects adapted to the new conditions of the national economy. The relevant factors determining the conditions of investment in hotel real estate were worked out by the method of scanning the horizon.Therefore, this study aims to assess the conditions and risks of an investment in hotel real estate and to develop potential innovative models of interaction between the investor and the recipient of the investment (a subject of the hotel business), which will increase the attractiveness of hotel real estate for investment. The relevance of the above provisions is confirmed by the prospects of restoration of the hotel business after the end of martial law in Ukraine.
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Myroshnychenko, Iu, and O. Lyulyov. "THE IMPACT OF THE UKRAINE'S GREEN DEAL CONCEPT AND THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON THE TRAJECTORY OF UKRAINE'S INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT." Vìsnik Sumsʹkogo deržavnogo unìversitetu, no. 1 (2020): 163–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.21272/1817-9215.2020.1-18.
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The article examines the impact of Ukraine's Green Deal concept and the COVID-19 pandemic on the country's innovation development trajectory. The authors study the thematic focus of scientific publications in the context of the impact of the pandemic on global socio-economic and managerial processes. As a result, 9 clusters connected by thematic proximity were identified. It is identified that the new challenges require profound changes in the organization of the health care system, which will lead to large-scale investments in disease prevention infrastructure and the accelerated digital transformation of health care delivery. Telemedicine services, knowledge and technology transfer in health care practice, industrial and system design, development of bio- and nanotechnology are defined as innovative development trajectories. At the same time, the authors noted that the process of developing and implementing innovations is constrained by the problems of imports and a shortage of personnel for entrepreneurship due to supply chain disruptions and self-isolation policies. Besides, the uncertainty of the pace of pandemic development and its impact on the economy of states complicates the development of longterm macroeconomic policy. Socio-economic development planning should include sectoral transformation programs, and adequate financial incentives for the development of innovative entrepreneurship, the creation of reliable and sustainable business models. The article identifies the key areas of innovative development such as programs for sustainable economic restructuring, achieving the goals of Ukraine's Green Deal and the development of biotechnology industry and telemedicine.
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Klein, Lawrence R. "Financial Options for Economic Development (The Quaid-i-Azam Lecture)." Pakistan Development Review 30, no. 4I (December 1, 1991): 369–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.30541/v30i4ipp.369-393.
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As a model builder, I feel comfortable in analyzing economic development through the construction and use of 2-gap mathematical-statistical models. This serves as a paradigm for the modelling of developing countries.l All systems have a core, and although analysis of developing economies must take many interrelated processes into account simultaneously, the more complex systems can usually be reduced to a simplified core of broad macroeconomic relationships. The 2-gap model is, of course, only a starting point because the analysis must deal with such sectors as demographics, family budgets, and the formation of market prices - possibly only relative or real prices. Such a system looks at the economic development issues in physical terms, with some real (relative) prices for allocation theory. A great deal of interesting material can be prepared along these lines for guidance in the development process. The building blocks are: (i) Production functions for introducing technological constraints, perhaps extended to include an input-output component; (ii) Conditions of marginal productivity, i.e., optimality in reaching production decisions both for output and input; (iii) Population dynamics and more general demographic processes extending to labour supply, immigration, emigration, and distribution of income/wealth; (iv) The conditions for consumer choice, generating ultimately large-scale demand systems, starting with family budget analysis. As in the case of production analysis, optimality decisions guide model specification; and (v) Trade systems showing how exportable surpluses are created and offset
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Gagulina, Natalia, Arthur Budagov, and Andrey Novikov. "Institutional approach in research of transformations in the regional economy." E3S Web of Conferences 110 (2019): 02108. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/201911002108.
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Due to the large-scale reforming of the Russian economy, the scope of transformations of the regional level does not lose relevance for many years. As generalization of results of domestic and foreign methods of research of transformations in the economy showed, application of institutional approach in this direction is limited to difficulties of terminological character. For their overcoming, the concept of institutional conditions is specified in the paper. Value of these conditions for economic growth and development of the region is shown. In the paper, the special attention is paid to a problem of forming the system of indicators for operational use of institutional approach in the economy of a region. The system of indicators of institutional transformations described in the paper is intended for operational use of quantitative estimates in the regional economy. The system of indicators is made by two complementary blocks – socio-economic and institutional. Indicators of the socio-economic block adumbrate about the economy of a region, about its potentials, illustrate a region place in national economy. The information base for assessing the existing conditions in the regional economy for the implementation of available opportunities is the institutional block, which contains indicators of the quality and efficiency of institutions. The use of the offered system of indicators will allow not only receiving the results having the high practical importance in the field of regional economic management, but also using them at further creation of macroeconomic models.
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Radukh, N. "Trends in the development of crowdfunding in the domestic business environment." Scientific Messenger of LNU of Veterinary Medicine and Biotechnologies 23, no. 97 (November 25, 2021): 31–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.32718/nvlvet-e9706.
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The article examines the interpretation of the economic essence of crowdfunding by various scholars, its features and foreign experience of application in financing ideas and projects in various spheres of socio-economic life. In the context of globalization the opening of new markets and opportunities, intensification of capital exchange processes, the use of innovative financial solutions can have a positive impact on national competitiveness and attract small businesses and individuals with innovative ideas but do not have sufficient financial resources for their development and implementation. It is described that crowdfunding is a fundraising tool that with the help of Internet technologies allows to receive investments in a short time from a large number of people to support small or medium business projects, while crowdfunding participants are: project authors, project donors, Internet workers and the state as a regulator of these relations. The main indicators that need to be analyzed if you want to use crowdfunding as a tool of alternative financing of self-organizing economic systems, in particular are: analysis of macroeconomic indicators in the country of its application; comparison of risks of economic development and introduction of crowdfunding; creation of state measures to stimulate the economy and ensure information and financial security at all levels of crowdfunding regulation. The main models of crowdfunding that are used in world practice are described: P2P (Peer-to-Peer) for financing of individuals and P2B (Peer-to-Business) for financing of small and medium business. The main advantages and disadvantages of crowdfunding and the possibility of its application in different economies are considered. The advantages are the improvement of the project management process and increase of their efficiency through the establishment of feedback, the efficiency of which increases significantly due to the use of modern Internet technologies, which allows to transfer a significant part of project monitoring functions to investors. The disadvantage of crowdfunding is the impossibility of its application to large-scale projects that require large investments. The Strategy of the Development of the Financial Sector of Ukraine until 2025 has been studied, according to which it is envisaged to improve the regulation of the payment market infrastructure in accordance with EU standards and to create a large number of FinTech companies in Ukraine.
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Czapkiewicz, Anna, and Katarzyna Brzozowska-Rup. "Estimating the size of the shadow economy in Poland." Wiadomości Statystyczne. The Polish Statistician 66, no. 4 (April 30, 2021): 7–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0014.8323.
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The shadow economy, as an interdisciplinary phenomenon, generates many controversies and difficulties for researchers. Economic entities operating within the non-observed (hidden) economy strive to escape official records, therefore a direct estimation of the extent of the phenomenon remains unobtainable. The aim of this article is to present the results of the estimation of the size of the shadow economy in Poland on the basis of the differences between GDP calculated according to the ‘production’ and the ‘expenditure’ approaches. The authors propose an original technique based on the idea of residual methods. In the course of the study, two models describing the dependencies between the growth of GDP and the growth of indicators used in the in the above-mentioned approaches to GDP calculation were established. The identified differences between the value of this measure calculated according to the production and expenditure approaches were used for the estimation of the size of the shadow economy in Poland, presented as a share in GDP. The analysis was carried out on the basis of panel data reflecting the values of selected macroeconomic indicators measured on the voivodship scale in the years 2000–2017, drawn from the Local Data Bank of Statistics Poland. The obtained results resemble to a large extent the estimates of the shadow economy by Statistics Poland and EY, and also partly that by United Nations Global Compact. The analysis presented in the paper is part of the research conducted by the Centre for Non-Observed Economy Srudies (OGN) at the Statistical Office in Kielce, whose aim is to improve the methodology currently used by official statistics in Poland.
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Barnett, William A., and Robert Solow. "AN INTERVIEW WITH FRANCO MODIGLIANI." Macroeconomic Dynamics 4, no. 2 (June 2000): 222–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100500015042.
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Franco Modigliani's contributions in economics and finance have transformed both fields. Although many other major contributions in those fields have come and gone, Modigliani's contributions seem to grow in importance with time. His famous 1944 article on liquidity preference has not only remained required reading for generations of Keynesian economists but has become part of the vocabulary of all economists. The implications of the life-cycle hypothesis of consumption and saving provided the primary motivation for the incorporation of finite lifetime models into macroeconomics and had a seminal role in the growth in macroeconomics of the overlapping generations approach to modeling of Allais, Samuelson, and Diamond. Modigliani and Miller's work on the cost of capital transformed corporate finance and deeply influenced subsequent research on investment, capital asset pricing, and recent research on derivatives. Modigliani received the Nobel Memorial Prize for Economics in 1985.In macroeconomic policy, Modigliani has remained influential on two continents. In the United States, he played a central role in the creation of a the Federal Reserve System's large-scale quarterly macroeconometric model, and he frequently participated in the semiannual meetings of academic consultants to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C. His visibility in European policy matters is most evident in Italy, where nearly everyone seems to know him as a celebrity, from his frequent appearances in the media. In the rest of Europe, his visibility has been enhanced by his publication, with a group of distinguished European and American economists, of “An Economists' Manifesto on Unemployment in the European Union,” which was signed by a number of famous economists and endorsed by several others.This interview was conducted in two parts on different dates in two different locations, and later unified. The initial interview was conducted by Robert Solow at Modigliani's vacation home in Martha's Vineyard. Following the transcription of the tape from that interview, the rest of the interview was conducted by William Barnett in Modigliani's apartment on the top floor of a high-rise building overlooking the Charles River near Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Those concluding parts of the interview in Cambridge continued for the two days of November 5–6, 1999 with breaks for lunch and for the excellent espresso coffee prepared by Modigliani in an elaborate machine that would be owned only by someone who takes fine coffee seriously.Although the impact that Modigliani has had on the economics and finance professions is clear to all members of those professions, only his students can understand the inspiration that he has provided to them. However, that may have been adequately reflected by Robert Shiller at Yale University in correspondence regarding this interview, when he referred to Modigliani as: “my hero.”
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Shen, Xiao, Jingbo Liang, Jiangning Cao, and Zhengwen Wang. "How Population Aging Affects Industrial Structure Upgrading: Evidence from China." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 23 (December 1, 2022): 16093. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192316093.
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The question of how to proactively respond to population aging has become a major global issue. As a country with the largest elderly population in the world, China suffers a stronger shock from population aging, which makes it more urgent to transform its industrial and economic development model. Concretely, in the context of the new macroeconomic environment that has undergone profound changes, the shock of population aging makes the traditional industrial structure upgrading model (driven by large-scale factor inputs, imitation innovation and low-cost technological progress, and strong external demand) more unsustainable, and China has an urgent need to transform it to a more sustainable one. Only with an in-depth analysis of the influence mechanism of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure can we better promote industrial structure upgrading under the impact of population aging. Therefore, six MSVAR models were constructed from each environmental perspective based on data from 1987 to 2021. The probabilities of regime transition figures show that the influencing mechanisms have a clear two-regime feature from any view; specifically, the omnidirectional environmental transition occurs in 2019. A further impulse–response analysis shows that, comparatively speaking, under the new environment regime the acceleration of population aging (1) aggravates the labor shortage, thus narrowing the industrial structure upgrading ranges; (2) has a negative, rather than positive, impact on the capital stock, but leads to a cumulative increase in industrial structure upgrading; (3) forces weaker technological progress, but further leads to a stronger impact on the industrial structure upgrading; (4) forces greater consumption upgrading, which further weakens industrial structure upgrading; (5) narrows rather than expands the upgrading of investment and industrial structures; and (6) narrows the upgrading of export and industrial structures. Therefore, we should collaboratively promote industrial structure upgrading from the supply side relying heavily on independent innovation and talent, and the demand side relying heavily on the upgrading of domestic consumption and exports.
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Atanasijević, Jasna, Duško Vasiljević, Zoran Nikolić, and Olivera Pavlović. "Untapped export opportunities of Serbian economy after a decade of investment and export based growth model." Ekonomika preduzeca 69, no. 3-4 (2021): 273–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/ekopre2103273a.
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Relying on the economic complexity and product space approach developed by Hidalgo and Haussmann [21], and using trade data, exporters' financial reports and available macroeconomic statistics, we try to assess the degree of transformation of structure and production potential of the Serbian economy over the last decade. We argue that although the overall economic complexity, as a decent predictor of higher economic growth, did slightly improve over the observed period, there is still large untapped potential in local knowledge and know-how. FDI inflow into manufacturing industry, as the most important factor of the transformation of the production structure and size of the economy, has contributed to growth in employment and export, improving the macro stability. On the other side, its contribution to the higher growth outlook by improving the production capacity was limited as FDI inflow has been directed mostly into low and medium-low technology industries with low complexity products. Moreover, it seems that the vertical spillover through linkages with local suppliers and transfer of technology, knowledge and practices could also be larger. In the same period, some positive developments of limited scale yet are reflected in emergence of a certain number of high-tech industries' products with high complexity, most likely produced by SMEs, such as electrical equipment, lighting, various software embedded devices, etc.
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Wiedermann, Krzysztof. "Industry and its Surroundings – Multiplier Effects and Embeddedness of Companies." Studies of the Industrial Geography Commission of the Polish Geographical Society 32, no. 4 (November 27, 2018): 176–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.24917/20801653.324.11.
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Research of industrial enterprises concerning their impact on the surroundings through multiplier effects is becoming more and more important due to changes in the organisation of production processes. They mainly result from the increasing technological advancement of products and the need to achieve the expected financial effect, which is possible only through large-scale production. The result of these components is a continuous increase in the specialisation of both companies and individual industrial plants. These processes are reflected in contemporary models of industrialisation, which show that companies operate on the basis of more and more complex value-added chains. This increases the indirect impact of enterprises on the development of the surroundings. The article aims to present the mechanism of functioning of multiplier effects and indicate factors that affect different sizes, as well as the scale of their range. It also presents the evolution of the idea of multiplier effects on the ground of macroeconomics and shows the contribution of Polish researchers to this trend of knowledge. It should be noted that the research to date in this area is not often undertaken both on scientific grounds and in the field of broadly understood economic consulting for the benefit of local government units, which results mainly from the lack of data. The need to obtain detailed data, particularly financial data, within the company chain is a crucial barrier.
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Markina, Yu V. "Media Globalization Specificity and Contradictions to Diversification of Western Media." Vestnik NSU. Series: History and Philology 20, no. 6 (August 11, 2021): 180–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.25205/1818-7919-2021-20-6-180-191.
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The issues of media concentration have currently been quite often the topic of public discussion and the subject of study of many analysts and publicists. The fact that the processes of concentration in recent decades are beginning to acquire a global character is first of all evidenced by the creation of large transnational media corporations, which are already showing a desire for international domination in a particular area of the media business. In addition, media owners from developed countries are actively expanding into the information markets of developing countries. Given the global impact of information technology on the entire socio-economic space, it seems necessary to define the concept of information globalization, to assess the scale of information shifts in the modern media economy. The relevance of this study is due to the need for a scientific understanding of concentration and diversification as forms of organizing media business in the context of globalization. Researchers identify globalization, convergence, glocalization, demassification, and diversification as the main trends characterizing the development of modern mass media.The purpose of this article is to characterize the processes of globalization in the communication industry that have influenced changes in the structure of the media market to describe the models of diversification and mutual integration of holding media.The theoretical and methodological basis of the work was formed by conceptual provisions, recommendations, and conclusions presented in the fundamental scientific works of domestic researchers on history, theory, typology, research methods of the Russian media industry (E. L. Vartanova, S. M. Gurevich, E. Ch. Andrunas, S. I. Beglov, S. S. Smirnov). When writing this article, we used the methods of system analysis, as well as expert analytical, descriptive, historical and theoretical methods.Conclusions. Globalization of information space, as an inevitable and extremely important phenomenon, affects all spheres of the socio-economic life of society, changing the motivation of economic actors at the micro level and modifying the macroeconomics in general.
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Renault, Matthieu. "Theory to the Rescue of Large-Scale Models: Edmond Malinvaud's View on the Search for Microfoundations." History of Political Economy, February 16, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1215/00182702-9699039.
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Abstract Edmond Malinvaud's case is peculiar in the history of macroeconomics as he committed to two different microfoundational programs, namely the disequilibrium theory (more properly, the non-Walrasian approach) and the practice of large-scale macroeconomic modeling. Such a twofold commitment was far from anecdotal because Malinvaud regarded these programs as fully compatible. The search for microfoundations he promoted did not aim at reconsidering the autonomy of macroeconomics. It was instead subject to the condition of being connected and oriented toward the needs of large-scale models. The best illustration was Malinvaud's own contributions to the non-Walrasian approach throughout the 1970s and 1980s, by which he intended to rationalize and improve the practice of French large-scale modeling.
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Saribas, Hakan, and İbrahim Güran Yumuşak. "The just economic system: a model and its simulations." International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management ahead-of-print, ahead-of-print (November 23, 2020). http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/imefm-04-2019-0143.
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Purpose Macro models are being developed in Islamic economics literature. These models, in general, follow the program of Islamization of knowledge and combine the genuine characteristics of Islamic economics with the tools of mainstream economics. The founding leader of Millî Görüs movement in Turkey, Necmettin Erbakan, and a group of Islamic intellectuals, had developed an economic program known as the just system. This paper aims to attempt to model the just economic system (the JES) with appropriate econometric techniques. Design/methodology/approach This paper models the macroeconomics of the JES with linear equations and conducts a series of simulations to identify its outputs. Based on the closed economy assumption, this paper describes the production function with a government share, defines a charitable foundation sector, exclude the speculation motive in money demand. Savings are transferred into investments without interest. This paper also develops an econometric simultaneous-equation model of the JES. Findings According to the results obtained from the selected simulation scenarios, this paper concludes that the macroeconomic JES works well and produces desirable outputs as it was stated in the original program. Research limitations/implications In future studies, the econometric estimations of the JES can be made. By adding more equations to the simple model, a medium or large scale JES macroeconomic model can be developed. Practical implications The JES can now be a source of economic policy designs. Social implications The model can be used to address socioeconomic objectives. Originality/value It is the only Islamic economic model that has been ever developed in Turkey. The notion of the JES has not been subjected to enough economic analysis and as far as it is known, it has not yet been modeled and simulated.
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Anzuini, Alessio. "The non-linear effects of the Fed asset purchases." Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, April 2, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/snde-2020-0022.
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Abstract The Federal Reserve responded to the great financial crisis deploying new monetary policy tools, the most notable of which being the expansion of its balance sheet. In a recent paper, Weale, M., and T. Wieladek. 2016. “What Are the Macroeconomic Effects of Asset Purchases?” Journal of Monetary Economics 79 (C): 81–93 show that the asset purchases were effective in stimulating economic activity as well as inflation and asset prices. Here I show that their results are state dependent: large scale asset purchase are effective only when financial markets are impaired. Financial markets are under stress when the effective risk-bearing capacity of the financial sector is drastically reduced, i.e. when the excess bond premium (EBP) of Gilchrist, S., and E. Zakrajšek. 2012. “Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations.” The American Economic Review 102 (4): 1692–72 exceed a certain threshold. Using an estimated threshold vector autoregressive model conditional on the EBP regime, I show that an increase in the balance sheet has expansionary effects on GDP and inflation when EBP is high, but not when it is low (as its effects become mostly insignificant). I argue that the high EBP can be interpreted as a proxy of market dis-functioning so that only when this channel of transmission is on, the unconventional policy is particularly effective. This suggests that models of transmission of unconventional policies, based on asset purchases, should focus also on the market functioning channel and not only on the portfolio balance one.
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Paslavska, Oksana. "BUSINESS CLIMATE AS AN INDICATOR OF ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE COUNTRY REGIONS." Electronic scientific publication "Public Administration and National Security", no. 6(22) (2018). http://dx.doi.org/10.25313/2617-572x-2021-6-7772.
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This article is devoted to the analysis of business climate of the regions of Ukraine. Important for the analysis are the major changes that the business environment has undergone due to the new realities caused by the spread of the pandemic. Among the key points are: the introduction of a hybrid workflow, digitalization of work processes, development of new crisis management strategies, implementation of sustainable models that can serve customers in any circumstances, retraining and retraining, changing the focus on increasing loyalty services already existing customers, etc. Also, this paper contains an analysis of the business environment in four strategic regions of Ukraine – Lviv, Odessa, Kharkiv and Dnipro. At present, most regions find it difficult to do business in most regions, although satisfactory estimates prevailed last year. Corruption and bureaucracy were highlighted as leading factors hindering business development. In the first place for ease of doing business was the Western region – 2.95 points out of 5 possible, in second place was Kharkiv – 2.69 points, in third place - the Dnieper – 2.34 points, and in last place was the South Ukrainian region – 2.25 points. The integrated assessment of all regions is located in the negative plane. The conclusions listed the main points on which the government should focus for economic recovery and development of the business environment, namely: implementation of real and effective judicial reform, rule of law, fair justice; protection of the population from COVID-19 (large-scale testing, vaccination, effective treatment; eradication of corruption; ensuring fair, equitable, predictable and transparent tax policy, fair competition; ensuring macroeconomic stability and continuing cooperation with the IMF; reducing the shadow economy; protecting investment and property rights; establishing equal rules of the game by eliminating the control of the oligarchs, etc.
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"Systemic risks for investments under global uncertainty." Journal of Economics and International Relations, no. 12 (2020). http://dx.doi.org/10.26565/2310-9513-2020-12-14.
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Under growing uncertainty and interdependence, systemic risks are essential for the effective functioning of the global financial system. Therefore, the subject of the proposed study is systemic risks for the global financial system. The goal of this work is to identify and disclose the role of systemic risks in carrying out investment activities. The article solves the following objectives: to identify and reveal key features and characteristics of systemic risks, to identify new challenges in systemic risk management, to identify new manifestations of systemic risks. To achieve the goal of the study, the following methods are used: system-structural, synergetic, method of comparative analysis, method of analysis and synthesis. The study reveals the following results. The main approaches to defining the concept of systemic risks are identified and their comparative analysis is carried out. The main approaches to measuring systemic risks and measurement criteria are identified. The differences between the concepts of systemic and systematic risk are revealed, and the mechanism of their interrelation is identified. New systemic risks in the conditions of global uncertainty are identified. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on systemic risks is determined. The main new types of risks and threats to financial stability in the long run are identified. The main directions of response of financial regulatory bodies to new systemic risks are determined. The main effects of the impact of measures to stimulate economic growth on the state of financial markets and investment activities are identified. The conclusions of the study are as follows. It is determined that there is no unanimous definition of systemic risk. Key features of systemic risks are identified, such as unpredictability, large-scale impact, spillover effect, impact on the real sector of the economy, etc. It is determined that when measuring systemic risk there are two problems: the measure of quantitative expression of systemic risk as a unit and the distribution of systemic risk between individual financial institutions. It is revealed that systemic risk can be a source of systematic risks. The COVID-19 pandemic, as an extraordinary macroeconomic shock, is belived to lead to new systemic risks. It is revealed that new types of systemic risks include, in particular, default risks, complexity of the macroeconomic environment, risks of sovereign financing, risk of lack of liquidity. The impact of new systemic risks on investment activities is revealed, in particular, changes in the business models of financial institutions, changes in the strategies of investment funds, lower ratings of debt securities, increasing the cost of debt financing, lack of liquidity.
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Hunt, Benjamin, Susanna Mursula, Rafael Portillo, and Marika Santoro. "Modeling Trade Tensions." IMF Working Papers 20, no. 279 (December 11, 2020). http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561615.001.
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In this paper, we investigate the mechanisms through which import tariffs impact the macroeconomy in two large scale workhorse models used for quantitative policy analysis: a computational general equilibrium (CGE) model (Purdue University GTAP model) and a multi-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model (IMF GIMF model). The quantitative effects of an increase in tariffs reflect different mechanisms at work. Like other models in the trade literature, in GTAP higher tariffs generate a loss in terms of output arising from an inefficient reallocation of resources between sectors. In GIMF instead, as in other DSGE models, tariffs act as a disincentive to factor utilization. We show that the two models/channels can be broadly interpreted as capturing the impact of tariffs on different components of a country’s aggregate production function: aggregate productivity (GTAP) and factor supply/utilization (GIMF). We discuss ways to combine the estimates from these two models to provide a more complete assessment of the macro effects of tariffs.
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"Book Reviews." Journal of Economic Literature 49, no. 1 (March 1, 2011): 129–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jel.49.1.129.
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Michael Watts of Purdue University reviews “Better Living through Economics” edited by John J. Siegfried. The EconLit Abstract of the reviewed work begins, “Twelve papers and fourteen comments explore the fundamental contributions of economic research to important public policy decisions over the past half century. Papers discuss the evolution of emissions trading; better living through improved price indexes; economics and the Earned Income Tax Credit;….” Arthur J. Robson of Simon Fraser University reviews “The Bounds of Reason: Game Theory and the Unification of the Behavioral Sciences” by Herbert Gintis. The EconLit Abstract of the reviewed work begins, “Explores how key concepts from the behavioral sciences can complement game theory in providing insights into human behavior. Discusses decision theory and human behavior; game theory--basic concepts; game theory and human behavior; rationalizability and common knowledge of rationality; extensive for….” Robert A. Margo of Boston University and NBER reviews “Top Incomes: A Global Perspective” edited by A. B. Atkinson and T. Piketty. The EconLit Abstract of the reviewed work begins, “Thirteen papers examine top incomes in ten OECD countries and focus on the contrast between continental Europe and English-speaking countries. Papers discuss top Indian incomes, 1922-2000; income inequality and progressive income taxation in China and India, 1986-2015; the evolution of income concentration….” Charles Wyplosz of The Graduate Institute, Geneva reviews “Europe and the Euro” edited by Alberto Alesina and Francesco Giavazzi. The EconLit Abstract of the reviewed work begins, “Eleven papers with comments, drawn from an NBER conference on “Europe and the Euro” held in October 2008, examine a number of issues related to the euro, including the effects of the euro on reform of goods and labor markets; its influence on business cycles and trade among members; and whether the ….” Anne Krueger of Johns Hopkins University reviews “Misadventures of the Most Favored Nations: Clashing Egos, Inflated Ambitions, and the Great Shambles of the World Trade System” by Paul Blustein. The EconLit Abstract of the reviewed work begins, “Explores whether the global trading system, specifically the World Trade Organization (WTO), is at risk of joining the financial system in crisis, and chronicles the major events in the system over the last decade. Discusses the 2001 WTO meeting in Doha, Qatar; the story of the global trading system….” Chong Xiang of Purdue University and NBER reviews “International Trade with Equilibrium Unemployment” by Carl Davidson and Steven J. Matusz. The EconLit Abstract of the reviewed work begins, “Considers how to create economic models that accurately reflect the real-world connections between international trade and labor markets using equilibrium unemployment modeling. Discusses the structure of simple general equilibrium models with frictional unemployment; trade and search-generated unemployment….” Raymond Robertson of Macalester College reviews “Unequal Partners: The United States and Mexico” by Sidney Weintraub. The EconLit Abstract of the reviewed work begins, “Examines the repercussions of the dependent-dominant relationship between Mexico and the United States. Discusses Mexico's political economy; trade--from closure to opening; foreign direct investment and finance--from resistance to welcome; narcotics--effects of profits from U.S. consumption; energy….” Jules H. van Binsbergen of Northwestern University, Stanford University, and NBER reviews “Anticipating Correlations: A New Paradigm for Risk Management” by Robert Engle. The EconLit Abstract of the reviewed work begins, “Presents a collection of new methods for estimating and forecasting correlations for large systems of assets. Discusses correlation economics; correlations in theory; models for correlation; dynamic conditional correlation; dynamic conditional correlation performance; the MacGyver method; generalize….” Andreas Bergh of Lund University and Research Institute for Industrial Economics reviews “Nordics in Global Crisis: Vulnerability and Resilience” by Thorvaldur Gylfason, Bengt Holmström, Sixten Korkman, Hans Tson Söderström, and Vesa Vihriälä. The EconLit Abstract of the reviewed work begins, “Presents a report on the global financial and economic crisis from the point of view of small open economies, focusing on the Nordic countries. Discusses putting the crisis into perspective; the crisis and the global policy response; the panic of 2007-08--a modern bank run; looking back at volatility….” Teresa A. Sullivan of University of Virginia reviews “Saving Alma Mater: A Rescue Plan for America's Public Universities” by James C. Garland. The EconLit Abstract of the reviewed work begins, “Examines how to reform the economic model of public higher education, drawing upon the example of Miami University of Ohio. Discusses where the money comes from; market forces in higher education; why public universities cannot restrain costs; the university prime directive; whether the faculty are ….” Martin Hall of University of Salford reviews “Financing Higher Education Worldwide: Who Pays? Who Should Pay?” by D. Bruce Johnstone and Pamela N. Marcucci.. The EconLit Abstract of the reviewed work begins, “Explores the financing of higher education from an international comparative perspective, focusing on the strategy of cost-sharing. Discusses diverging trajectories of higher education's costs and public revenues worldwide; financial austerity and solutions on the cost side; the perspective and policy….” Lee Branstetter of Carnegie Mellon University reviews “Offshoring in the Global Economy: Microeconomic Structure and Macroeconomic Implications” by Robert C. Feenstra. The EconLit Abstract of the reviewed work begins, “Presents lectures given by Robert C. Feenstra at the Stockholm School of Economics in September 2008, focusing on the role of trade versus technological change in explaining wage movements and their effect on workers. Lectures discuss microeconomic structure in the context of the Heckscher-Ohlin structure….” James E. Rauch of University of California, San Diego reviews “Emergent Economies, Divergent Paths: Economic Organization and International Trade in South Korea and Taiwan” by Robert C. Feenstra and Gary G. Hamilton. The EconLit Abstract of the reviewed work begins, “Studies the business groups in South Korea and Taiwan and what their different paths of development say about economic organization. Discusses the problem of economic organization; interpreting business groups in South Korea and Taiwan; a model of business groups--the interaction of authority and market….” Michael Bikard of Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER reviews “The Invention of Enterprise: Entrepreneurship from Ancient Mesopotamia to Modern Times” edited by David S. Landes, Joel Mokyr, and William J. Baumol. The EconLit Abstract of the reviewed work begins, “Eighteen papers examine the history of entrepreneurship throughout the world since antiquity. Papers discuss global enterprise and industrial performance--an overview; entrepreneurs--from the Near Eastern takeoff to the Roman collapse; Neo-Babylonian entrepreneurs; the scale of entrepreneurship in Middle….” Per Skedinger of Research Institute of Industrial Economics reviews “Reforming the Welfare State: Recovery and Beyond in Sweden” edited by Richard B. Freeman, Birgitta Swedenborg, and Robert Topel. The EconLit Abstract of the reviewed work begins, “Nine papers examine Sweden's recovery from crisis and the role that the country's welfare state institutions and policy reforms played in that recovery. Papers discuss searching for optimal inequality-incentives; policies affecting work patterns and labor income for women; wage determination and employment….”