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1
Dulleck, Uwe. "Randomistas, by Andrew Leigh (La Trobe University Press, Carlton, VIC, 2018)." Economic Record 94, no. 306 (August 23, 2018): 333–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1475-4932.12430.
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2
Chessman, BC. "Phytoplankton of the La Trobe River, Victoria." Marine and Freshwater Research 36, no. 1 (1985): 115. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/mf9850115.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Phytoplankton was sampled on a monthly basis for 1 year at five stations on the La Trobe River in Gippsland, Victoria. In the upper, mostly forested, reaches of the river, chlorophyll a concentrations and cell densities were uniformly very low, and the dominant algae were detached benthic diatoms and flagellated species. In the plains section of the river, downstream of an impoundment (Lake Narracan), spring and autumn blooms occurred, with a marked reduction in abundance in midsummer and midwinter. The lowland planktonic flora was dominated by centric diatoms, particularly Melosira distans in autumn and Skeletonema potamos in spring.
3
Chaessman, BC. "Estimates of ecosystem metabolism in the La Trobe River, Victoria." Marine and Freshwater Research 36, no. 6 (1985): 873. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/mf9850873.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Diel oxygen-curve techniques were used to estimate gross primary productivity (PG), community respiration and net daily metabolism (NDM) for five reaches of the La Trobe River from headwaters to lowlands. All reaches were heterotrophic throughout the study (December 1980-November 1981) with NDM ranging from - 1 to -6 g O2 m-2. PG was consistently very low at the most upstream station and highest in the middle reaches of the river, where both benthic and planktonic contributions were important. At the most downstream station benthic productivity was negligible but planktonic productivity was appreciable in spring and autumn. PG in the river may be limited in the upper reaches by lack of light (due to shading by vegetation) and low levels of nutrients, and in the lower reaches by turbidity and increased depth.
4
Islam, Siraj Ul, and Stephen J. Déry. "Evaluating uncertainties in modelling the snow hydrology of the Fraser River Basin, British Columbia, Canada." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 21, no. 3 (March 29, 2017): 1827–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1827-2017.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract. This study evaluates predictive uncertainties in the snow hydrology of the Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia (BC), Canada, using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model forced with several high-resolution gridded climate datasets. These datasets include the Canadian Precipitation Analysis and the thin-plate smoothing splines (ANUSPLIN), North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), University of Washington (UW) and Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) gridded products. Uncertainties are evaluated at different stages of the VIC implementation, starting with the driving datasets, optimization of model parameters, and model calibration during cool and warm phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The inter-comparison of the forcing datasets (precipitation and air temperature) and their VIC simulations (snow water equivalent – SWE – and runoff) reveals widespread differences over the FRB, especially in mountainous regions. The ANUSPLIN precipitation shows a considerable dry bias in the Rocky Mountains, whereas the NARR winter air temperature is 2 °C warmer than the other datasets over most of the FRB. In the VIC simulations, the elevation-dependent changes in the maximum SWE (maxSWE) are more prominent at higher elevations of the Rocky Mountains, where the PCIC-VIC simulation accumulates too much SWE and ANUSPLIN-VIC yields an underestimation. Additionally, at each elevation range, the day of maxSWE varies from 10 to 20 days between the VIC simulations. The snow melting season begins early in the NARR-VIC simulation, whereas the PCIC-VIC simulation delays the melting, indicating seasonal uncertainty in SWE simulations. When compared with the observed runoff for the Fraser River main stem at Hope, BC, the ANUSPLIN-VIC simulation shows considerable underestimation of runoff throughout the water year owing to reduced precipitation in the ANUSPLIN forcing dataset. The NARR-VIC simulation yields more winter and spring runoff and earlier decline of flows in summer due to a nearly 15-day earlier onset of the FRB springtime snowmelt. Analysis of the parametric uncertainty in the VIC calibration process shows that the choice of the initial parameter range plays a crucial role in defining the model hydrological response for the FRB. Furthermore, the VIC calibration process is biased toward cool and warm phases of the PDO and the choice of proper calibration and validation time periods is important for the experimental setup. Overall the VIC hydrological response is prominently influenced by the uncertainties involved in the forcing datasets rather than those in its parameter optimization and experimental setups.
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Yuan, Xing. "An experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system over the Yellow River basin – Part 2: The added value from climate forecast models." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 20, no. 6 (June 22, 2016): 2453–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2453-2016.
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Abstract. This is the second paper of a two-part series on introducing an experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system over the Yellow River basin in northern China. While the natural hydrological predictability in terms of initial hydrological conditions (ICs) is investigated in a companion paper, the added value from eight North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) climate forecast models with a grand ensemble of 99 members is assessed in this paper, with an implicit consideration of human-induced uncertainty in the hydrological models through a post-processing procedure. The forecast skill in terms of anomaly correlation (AC) for 2 m air temperature and precipitation does not necessarily decrease over leads but is dependent on the target month due to a strong seasonality for the climate over the Yellow River basin. As there is more diversity in the model performance for the temperature forecasts than the precipitation forecasts, the grand NMME ensemble mean forecast has consistently higher skill than the best single model up to 6 months for the temperature but up to 2 months for the precipitation. The NMME climate predictions are downscaled to drive the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) land surface hydrological model and a global routing model regionalized over the Yellow River basin to produce forecasts of soil moisture, runoff and streamflow. And the NMME/VIC forecasts are compared with the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction method (ESP/VIC) through 6-month hindcast experiments for each calendar month during 1982–2010. As verified by the VIC offline simulations, the NMME/VIC is comparable to the ESP/VIC for the soil moisture forecasts, and the former has higher skill than the latter only for the forecasts at long leads and for those initialized in the rainy season. The forecast skill for runoff is lower for both forecast approaches, but the added value from NMME/VIC is more obvious, with an increase of the average AC by 0.08–0.2. To compare with the observed streamflow, both the hindcasts from NMME/VIC and ESP/VIC are post-processed through a linear regression model fitted by using VIC offline-simulated streamflow. The post-processed NMME/VIC reduces the root mean squared error (RMSE) from the post-processed ESP/VIC by 5–15 %. And the reduction occurs mostly during the transition from wet to dry seasons. With the consideration of the uncertainty in the hydrological models, the added value from climate forecast models is decreased especially at short leads, suggesting the necessity of improving the large-scale hydrological models in human-intervened river basins.
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Chessman, BC. "Artificial-substratum periphyton and water quality in the lower La Trobe River, Victoria." Marine and Freshwater Research 36, no. 6 (1985): 855. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/mf9850855.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Between February 1975 and March 1977, periphyton from artificial substrata (glass microscope slides) and water samples for physicochemical analysis were obtained from eight sites on the lowland section of the La Trobe River, which flows through agricultural, urban and industrial areas. Total organic matter on the slides, estimated as weight loss on ignition, was usually highest in summer or autumn when river flows were low. However, chlorophyll a densities generally peaked in late winter and spring when nitrate concentrations were high, except at a site upstream of major urban and industrial areas, where a summer-autumn increase occurred. Thermal discharges from major power stations had no obvious effect on chlorophyll abundance, but did appear to substantially influence diatom assemblage composition from late summer to early winter, when river temperatures were highest. Downstream of the Morwell River confluence, diatom assemblages were influenced by a sharp increase in dissolved solids concentration and probably also by the grazing activities of snails (Ferrissia petterdi and Physastra gibbosa). The diatom flora at the most downstream site showed some evidence of recovery from thermal effects.
7
Zhou, Xiong, Guohe Huang, Joseph Piwowar, Yurui Fan, Xiuquan Wang, Zoe Li, and Guanhui Cheng. "Hydrologic Impacts of Ensemble-RCM-Projected Climate Changes in the Athabasca River Basin, Canada." Journal of Hydrometeorology 19, no. 12 (December 1, 2018): 1953–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-17-0232.1.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract In this study, the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) and the Regional Climate Model (RegCM) system as well as the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrologic model were integrated into a general framework to investigate impacts of future climates on the hydrologic regime of the Athabasca River basin. Regional climate models (RCMs) including PRECIS and RegCM were used to develop ensemble high-resolution climate projections for 1979–2099. RCMs were driven by the boundary conditions from the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2 with Earth system configurations (HadGEM2-ES); the Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2); and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with MOM (GFDL-ESM2M) under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The ensemble climate simulations were validated through comparison with observations for 1984–2003. The RCMs project increases in temperature, precipitation, and wind speed under RCPs across most of the Athabasca River basin. Meanwhile, VIC was calibrated using the University of Arizona Shuffled Complex Evolution method (SCE-UA). The performance of the VIC model in replicating the characteristics of the observed streamflow was validated for 1994–2003. Changes in runoff and streamflow under RCPs were then simulated by the validated VIC model. The validation results demonstrate that the ensemble-RCM-driven VIC model can effectively reproduce historical climatological and hydrological patterns in the Athabasca River basin. The ensemble-RCM-driven VIC model shows that monthly streamflow is projected to increase in the 2050s and 2080s under RCPs, with notably higher flows expected in the spring for the 2080s. This will have substantial impacts on water balance on the Athabasca River basin, thus affecting the surrounding industry and ecosystems. The developed framework can be applied to other regions for exploration of hydrologic impacts under climate change.
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Parr, Dana, Guiling Wang, and David Bjerklie. "Integrating Remote Sensing Data on Evapotranspiration and Leaf Area Index with Hydrological Modeling: Impacts on Model Performance and Future Predictions." Journal of Hydrometeorology 16, no. 5 (October 1, 2015): 2086–100. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-15-0009.1.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract Using the Connecticut River basin as an example, this study assesses the extent to which remote sensing data can help improve hydrological modeling and how it may influence projected future hydrological trends. The dynamic leaf area index (LAI) derived from satellite remote sensing was incorporated into the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) to enable an interannually varying seasonal cycle of vegetation (VICVEG); the evapotranspiration (ET) data based on remote sensing were combined with ET from a default VIC simulation to develop a simple bias-correction algorithm, and the simulation was then repeated with the bias-corrected ET replacing the simulated ET in the model (VICET). VICET performs significantly better in simulating the temporal variability of river discharge at daily, biweekly, monthly, and seasonal time scales, while VICVEG better captures the interannual variability of discharge, particularly in the winter and spring, and shows slight improvements to soil moisture estimates. The methodology of incorporating ET data into VIC as a bias-correction tool also influences the modeled future hydrological trends. Compared to the default VIC, VICET portrays a future characterized by greater drought risk and a stronger decreasing trend of minimum river flows. Integrating remote sensing data with hydrological modeling helps characterize the range of model-related uncertainties and more accurately reconstruct historic river flow estimates, leading to a better understanding and prediction of hydrological response to future climate changes.
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Oubeidillah, Abdoul, Glenn Tootle, and Venkat Lakshmi. "IMPACTS OF BEETLE KILL ON MODELED STREAMFLOW RESPONSE IN THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN." International Journal of Engineering Technologies and Management Research 6, no. 3 (March 25, 2020): 27–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.29121/ijetmr.v6.i3.2019.363.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
A beetle epidemic across the western United States has resulted in the death of millions of acres of forests. This beetle outbreak, referred to as “beetle kill”, has caused many to believe that such dramatic changes in land cover could potentially alter the hydrology of the impacted regions. One of the most important hydrological processes that beetle kill has the potential to impact is streamflow. This research evaluates the hydrologic impacts on streamflow from land cover change due to beetle kill in the North Platte River Basin (NPRB) (Colorado and Wyoming, USA) by utilizing the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. Utilizing the National Agricultural Imagery Program (NAIP) dataset from 2005 / 2006 (onset of “beetle kill”) to more current conditions (2009), a decrease in tree cover of 16% to 40% was estimated. This decrease in tree cover was applied to VIC modeled streamflow from 1950 to 2000. The VIC model predicted a minimal increase in streamflow of approximately 5% which was not statistically significant.
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Aggarwal, S. P., P. K. Thakur, V. Garg, B. R. Nikam, A. Chouksey, P. Dhote, and T. Bhattacharya. "WATER RESOURCES STATUS AND AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT IN CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR BEAS RIVER BASIN OF NORTH WESTERN HIMALAYA." ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences XLI-B8 (October 14, 2016): 1389–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-xli-b8-1389-2016.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The water resources status and availability of any river basin is of primary importance for overall and sustainable development of any river basin. This study has been done in Beas river basin which is located in North Western Himalaya for assessing the status of water resources in present and future climate change scenarios. In this study hydrological modelling approach has been used for quantifying the water balance components of Beas river basin upto Pandoh. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model has been used in energy balance mode for Beas river basin at 1km grid scale. The VIC model has been run with snow elevation zones files to simulate the snow module of VIC. The model was run with National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) forcing data (Tmax, Tmin, Rainfall and wind speed at 0.5degree resolution) from 1 Jan. 1999 to 31 Dec 2006 for calibration purpose. The additional component of glacier melt was added into overall river runoff using semi-empirical approach utilizing air temperature and glacier type and extent data. The ground water component is computed from overall recharge of ground water by water balance approach. The overall water balance approach is validated with river discharge data provided by Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBMB) from 1994-2014. VIC routing module was used to assess pixel wise flow availability at daily, monthly and annual time scales. The mean monthly flow at Pandoh during study period varied from 19 - 1581 m<sup>3</sup>/s from VIC and 50 to 1556 m<sup>3</sup>/sec from observation data, with minimum water flow occurring in month of January and maximum flow in month of August with annual R<sup>2</sup> of 0.68. The future climate change data is taken from CORDEX database. The climate model of NOAA-GFDL-ESM2M for IPCC RCP scenario 4.5 and 8.5 were used for South Asia at 0.44 deg. grid from year 2006 to 2100. The climate forcing data for VIC model was prepared using daily maximum and minimum near surface air temperature, daily precipitation and daily surface wind speed. The GFDL model also gives validation phase scenarios from 2006 to 2015, which are used to test the overall model performance with current data. The current assessment made by hydrological water balance based approach has given reasonable good results in Beas river basin. The main limitation of this study is lack of full representation of glacier melt flow using fully energy balance model. This component will be addressed in coming time and it will be integrated with tradition hydrological and snowmelt runoff models. The other limitation of current study is dependence on NCEP or other reanalysis of climate forcing data for hydrological modelling, this leads to mismatch between actual and simulated water balance components. This problem can be addressed if more ground based and fine resolution grid based hydro meteorological data are used as input forcing data for hydrological modelling.
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Marchant, R. "Estimates of annual production for some aquatic insects from the La Trobe River, Victoria." Marine and Freshwater Research 37, no. 2 (1986): 113. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/mf9860113.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Annual production was estimated by the size-frequency method for Ephemeroptera (Tasmanocoenis tonnoiri, two species of Baetis, Atalonella spp., Atulophlebioides sp.), Plecoptera (Leptoperla spp.) and Trichoptera (Ecnomus sp.) at four sites on the lowland section of the La Trobe River. Annual production (P) of individual ephemeropteran species (or genera) varied from 0.02 to 0.7 g m-2 while total annual production of this order at two sites was 0.7-1 . 5 g m-. Annual production of Leptoperla spp. was 0.03 g m-2 at one site while Ecnomus sp, averaged 2 g m-2 at two sites. Estimates of annual production were subject to an error of at least t 50%. Annual turnover ratios (P/B; B is mean biomass) varied from 9 to 19 and were three to four times higher than published values for similar-sized macroinvertebrates in the temperate zone (generally < 15°C mean annual habitat temperature). This probably resulted from the higher average temperatures (17-18°C) at most sites.
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Zhang, Xuejun, Yanping Qu, Miaomiao Ma, Hui Liu, Zhicheng Su, Juan Lv, Jian Peng, Guoyong Leng, Xiaogang He, and Chongli Di. "Satellite-Based Operational Real-Time Drought Monitoring in the Transboundary Lancang–Mekong River Basin." Remote Sensing 12, no. 3 (January 24, 2020): 376. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs12030376.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Existing gauging networks are sparse and not readily available in real-time over the transboundary Lancang–Mekong River (LMR) basin, making it difficult to accurately identify drought. In this study, we aimed to build an operational real-time Lancang–Mekong drought monitor (LMDM), through combining satellite real-time data and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model at a 0.25° spatial resolution. Toward this, three VIC runs were conducted: (1) a 60-year (1951–2010) historical simulation driven by Princeton’s global meteorological forcing (PGF) for yielding ‘normal’ conditions (PGF-VIC), wherein the VIC was calibrated with 20-year observed streamflow at six hydrological stations; (2) a short-period (2011–2014) simulation to bridge the gap between the historical and the real-time modeling; (3) the real-time (2015–present) simulation driven by bias-corrected satellite data, wherein the real-time soil moisture (SM) estimate was expressed as percentile (relative to the ‘normal’) for drought monitoring. Results show that VIC can successfully reproduce the observed hydrographs, with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency exceeding 0.70 and the relative bias mostly within 15%. Assessment on the performance of LMDM shows that the real-time SM estimates bear good spatial similarity to the reference, with the correlation coefficient beyond 0.80 across >70% of the domain. In terms of drought monitoring, the LMDM can reasonably reproduce the two recorded droughts, implying extreme droughts covering the Lower LMR during 2004/05 and widespread severe 2009/10 drought across the upper domain. The percentage drought area implied by the LMDM and the reference is close, corresponding to 66% and 60%, 43% and 40%, and 44% and 36% for each typical drought month. Since January 2015, the LMDM was running in an operational mode, from which the 2016 unprecedented drought was successfully identified in Mekong Delta. This study highlights the LMDM’s capability for reliable real-time drought monitoring, which can serve as a valuable drought early warning prototype for other data-poor regions.
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Wu, Zhiyong, Heng Xiao, Guihua Lu, and Jinming Chen. "Assessment of Climate Change Effects on Water Resources in the Yellow River Basin, China." Advances in Meteorology 2015 (2015): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/816532.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The water resources in the Yellow River basin (YRB) are vital to social and economic development in North and Northwest China. The basin has a marked continental monsoon climate and its water resources are especially vulnerable to climate change. Projected runoff in the basin for the period from 2001 to 2030 was simulated using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model. VIC was first calibrated using observations and then was driven by the precipitation and temperature projected by the RegCM3 high-resolution regional climate model under the IPCC scenario A2. Results show that, under the scenario A2, the mean annual temperature of the basin could increase by 1.6°C, while mean annual precipitation could decrease by 2.6%. There could be an 11.6% reduction in annual runoff in the basin according to the VIC projection. However, there are marked regional variations in these climate change impacts. Reductions of 13.6%, 25.7%, and 24.6% could be expected in the regions of Hekouzhen to Longmen, Longmen to Sanmenxia, and Sanmenxia to Huayuankou, respectively. Our study suggests that the condition of water resources in the YRB could become more severe in the period from 2001 to 2030 under the scenario A2.
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Wang, Yuan, Wengang Zheng, Hongwei Xie, Qi Liu, and Jiahua Wei. "Study on Runoff Simulation of the Source Region of the Yellow River and the Inland Arid Source Region Based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model." Sustainability 12, no. 17 (August 28, 2020): 7041. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12177041.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Hydrological process simulation and rainfall–runoff analysis are important foundations for reasonably evaluating changes in water resources. In this paper, the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) hydrological model was used to simulate runoff without observed data for exploring the applicability of the model in the Kequ, Dari, and Jimai river basins in the source region of the Yellow River, and the Balegen River basin in the inland arid source region. The results show that, from 2015 to 2018, the VIC model had a good simulation effect. The Nash efficiency coefficients (NSE) of the four basins were all above 0.7, and the NSE of the Dari River basin reached 0.93. The relative error (RE) of the three river basins was about 5%, on average, and the RE of the Balegen basin was 6.50%, indicating that the model has good applicability in the study area. Climate perturbation experiments were performed to quantitatively analyze the relationship between rainfall and runoff. The results show that, in the source area of the Yellow River, rainfall and runoff are roughly linearly related. However, in the inland arid source area, temperature has a slightly greater impact on runoff than rainfall.
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Yang, Guoxiang, Laura C. Bowling, Keith A. Cherkauer, Bryan C. Pijanowski, and Dev Niyogi. "Hydroclimatic Response of Watersheds to Urban Intensity: An Observational and Modeling-Based Analysis for the White River Basin, Indiana." Journal of Hydrometeorology 11, no. 1 (February 1, 2010): 122–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009jhm1143.1.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract Impervious surface area (ISA) has different surface characteristics from the natural land cover and has great influence on watershed hydrology. To assess the urbanization effects on streamflow regimes, the authors analyzed the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow data of 16 small watersheds in the White River [Indiana (IN)] basin. Correlation between hydrologic metrics (flow distribution, daily variation in streamflow, and frequency of high-flow events) and ISA was investigated by employing the nonparametric Mann–Kendall method. Results derived from the 16 watersheds show that urban intensity has a significant effect on all three hydrologic metrics. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was modified to represent ISA in urbanized basins using a bulk parameterization approach. The model was then applied to the White River basin to investigate the potential ability to simulate the water and energy cycle response to urbanization. Correlation analysis for individual VIC grid cells indicates that the VIC urban model was able to reproduce the slope magnitude and mean value of the USGS streamflow metrics. The urban model also reproduced the urban heat island (UHI) seen in the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature products, especially for the grids encompassing the city of Indianapolis, IN. The difference of the hydrologic metrics obtained from the VIC model with and without urban representation indicates that the streamflow regime in the White River has been modified because of urban development. The observed data, together with model analysis, suggested that 3%–5% ISA in a watershed is the detectable threshold, beyond which urbanization effects start to have a statistically significant influence on streamflow regime.
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Marchant, R. "Robustness of classification and ordination techniques applied to Macroinvertebrate communities from the La Trobe River, Victoria." Marine and Freshwater Research 41, no. 4 (1990): 493. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/mf9900493.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The robustness of site groupings produced by ordination (DECORANA) and classification (TWINSPAN) techniques to variations in the quality of the raw data was investigated, using two data sets on macroinvertebrate communities from the La Trobe River. Ordinations or classifications based on the presence or absence of species were not substantially different from those based on actual abundance levels. However, when taxonomic discrimination was reduced from the species (or genus) level to the family level, distortions occurred in the resulting ordinations and classifications. In addition, ordinations based on 10 replicates per sample were little different from those based on a subset of 5 or 6 of these replicates; fewer than 4 replicates did not adequately represent the patterns present in the full data set.
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Ji, Haoyu, Dingzhi Peng, Yu Gu, Xiaoyu Luo, Bo Pang, and Zhongfan Zhu. "Snowmelt Runoff in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin and Runoff Change in the Future." Remote Sensing 15, no. 1 (December 22, 2022): 55. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs15010055.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Comprehending the impacts of climate change on regional hydrology and future projections of water supplies is of great value to manage the water resources in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin (YZRB). However, large uncertainties from both input data and the model itself exert obstacles to accurate projections. In this work, a hydrological modeling framework was established over the YZRB linking the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) with an empirical formulation, called the degree-day glacier-melt scheme (VIC–Glacier). The model performance was evaluated through three aspects, including streamflow, snow cover area, and glacier area. Nine GCM models and three emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) in CMIP6 were chosen to drive the calibrated VIC–Glacier model. The results showed that both precipitation and temperature resulted in an increase of around 25% and 13%, respectively, in multi-year average runoff from June to September, under SSP5-8.5 and SSP1-2.6. The precipitation runoff was projected to increase, as compensation for the decrease of glacier runoff and snow runoff by the end of the 21st century. An apparent increasing trend in the runoff was expected over the YZRB before 2050 and after the year 2060 under SSP 5-8.5, with a steeply decreasing trend from 2050 to 2060, and a negligible decreasing trend under SSP1-2.6 from 2020 to 2060, in contrast to an increasing trend from 2060 to 2100.
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Shrestha, Rajesh R., Markus A. Schnorbus, Arelia T. Werner, and Francis W. Zwiers. "Evaluating Hydroclimatic Change Signals from Statistically and Dynamically Downscaled GCMs and Hydrologic Models." Journal of Hydrometeorology 15, no. 2 (April 1, 2014): 844–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-13-030.1.
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Abstract This study analyzed potential hydroclimatic change in the Peace River basin in the province of British Columbia, Canada, based on two structurally different approaches: (i) statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) using the bias-corrected spatial disaggregation (BCSD) and (ii) dynamically downscaled GCM with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). Additionally, simulated hydrologic changes from the GCM–BCSD-driven Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model were compared to the CRCM integrated Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) output. The results show good agreements of the GCM–BCSD–VIC simulated precipitation, temperature, and runoff with observations, while the CRCM-simulated results differ substantially from observations. Nevertheless, differences (between the 2050s and 1970s) obtained from the two approaches are qualitatively similar for precipitation and temperature, although they are substantially different for snow water equivalent and runoff. The results obtained from the five Coupled Global Climate Model, version 3, (CGCM3)-driven CRCM runs are similar, suggesting that the multidecadal internal variability is not a large source of uncertainty for the Peace River basin. Overall, the GCM–BCSD–VIC approach, for now, remains the preferred approach for projecting basin-scale future hydrologic changes, provided that it explicitly accounts for the biases and includes plausible snow and runoff parameterizations. However, even with the GCM–BCSD–VIC approach, projections differ considerably depending on which of an ensemble of eight GCMs is used. Such differences reemphasize the uncertain nature of future hydroclimatic projections.
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Jiang, Shanshan, Zengxin Zhang, Yuhan Huang, Xi Chen, and Sheng Chen. "Evaluating the TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis for Extreme Precipitation and Streamflow in Ganjiang River Basin, China." Advances in Meteorology 2017 (2017): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2017/2902493.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Based on the observed precipitation data and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) 3B42 RTV7 and 3B42 V7 precipitation products from 2003 to 2010, the extreme precipitation and streamflow in the Ganjiang River basin were analyzed. The VIC hydrological model was used to simulate the streamflow driven by RTV7/V7 precipitation products in the Ganjiang River basin. The results show that (1) both of the RTV7 and V7 precipitation products have good applicability in precipitation estimation in the Ganjiang River basin and the correlation between the observed precipitation and RTV7 (V7) was as higher as 0.85 (0.86); (2) the RTV7/V7 precipitation products can well be used to simulate the streamflow by using the VIC hydrological model and the correlation between the observed streamflow and simulated streamflow driven by RTV7 (V7) products was as high as 0.86 (0.89); (3) the extreme precipitation varied greatly in the Ganjiang River basin and both of the RTV7 and V7 can capture the pattern of extreme precipitation in the Ganjiang River basin; however, higher extreme precipitation can be found in the northern Ganjiang River basin; (4) the extreme streamflow simulated driven by RTV7/V7 products agreed well with the observed extreme streamflow in the Ganjiang River basin. This study indicated that the TRMM 3B42 RTV7 and V7 products can be well used in the estimation of extreme precipitation and extreme streamflow.
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Li, Sisi, Mingliang Liu, Jennifer C. Adam, Huawei Pi, Fengge Su, Dongyue Li, Zhaofei Liu, and Zhijun Yao. "Contribution of Snow-Melt Water to the Streamflow over the Three-River Headwater Region, China." Remote Sensing 13, no. 8 (April 19, 2021): 1585. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs13081585.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Snowmelt water is essential to the water resources management over the Three-River Headwater Region (TRHR), where hydrological processes are influenced by snowmelt runoff and sensitive to climate change. The objectives of this study were to analyse the contribution of snowmelt water to the total streamflow (fQ,snow) in the TRHR by applying a snowmelt tracking algorithm and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The ratio of snowfall to precipitation, and the variation of the April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) associated with fQ,snow, were identified to analyse the role of snowpack in the hydrological cycle. Prior to the simulation, the VIC model was validated based on the observed streamflow data to recognize its adequacy in the region. In order to improve the VIC model in snow hydrology simulation, Advanced Scanning Microwave Radiometer E (ASMR-E) SWE product data was used to compare with VIC output SWE to adjust the snow parameters. From 1971 to 2007, the averaged fQ,snow was 19.9% with a significant decreasing trend over entire TRHR (p < 0.05).The influence factor resulted in the rate of change in fQ,snow which were different for each sub-basin TRHR. The decreasing rate of fQ,snow was highest of 0.24%/year for S_Lantsang, which should be due to the increasing streamflow and the decreasing snowmelt water. For the S_Yangtze, the increasing streamflow contributed more than the stable change of snowmelt water to the decreasing fQ,snow with a rate of 0.1%/year. The April 1 SWE with the minimum value appearing after 2000 and the decreased ratio of snowfall to precipitation during the study period, suggested the snow solid water resource over the TRHR was shrinking. Our results imply that the role of snow in the snow-hydrological regime is weakening in the TRHR in terms of water supplement and runoff regulation due to the decreased fQ,snow and snowfall.
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Tong, R., X. Yang, L. Ren, H. Shen, H. Shan, H. Kong, and C. Lin. "Spatio-temporal variation of surface soil moisture over the Yellow River basin during 1961–2012." Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences 368 (May 7, 2015): 391–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/piahs-368-391-2015.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract. Soil moisture plays a significant role in agricultural and ecosystem development. However, in the real world soil moisture data are very limited due to many factors. VIC-3L model, as a semi-distribution hydrological model, can potentially provide valuable information regarding soil moisture. In this study, daily soil moisture contents in the surface soil layer (0–10 cm) of 1500 grids at 0.25 × 0.25 degree were simulated by the VIC-3L model. The Mann-Kendall trend test and Morlet wavelet analysis methods were used for the analysis of annual and monthly average surface soil moisture series. Results showed that the trend of surface soil moisture was not obvious on the basin scale, but it varied with spatial and temporal conditions. Different fluctuation amplitudes and periods of surface soil moisture were also discovered on the Yellow River basin during 1961 to 2012.
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Alvarenga, Lívia Alves, Vinícius Siqueira Oliveira Carvalho, Vinícius Augusto de Oliveira, Carlos Rogério de Mello, Alberto Colombo, Javier Tomasella, and Pâmela Aparecida Melo. "Hydrological simulation with SWAT and VIC Models in the Verde River Watershed, Minas Gerais." Ambiente e Agua - An Interdisciplinary Journal of Applied Science 15, no. 4 (July 6, 2020): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.2492.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Successful streamflow forecasts depend on an adequate performance evaluation of the hydrological model. In this study, the hydrological responses were compared using two hydrological models, physic-based and semi-distributed, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), using input data from the Verde River Watershed, located in the Minas Gerais state in southern Brazil. This is a study of one of the most important headwater watershed regions of Brazil (Mantiqueira Range). Both models were suitable for streamflow simulation, with values of R2 (determination coefficient) and NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe) higher than 0.8, NSELog higher than 0.35 (Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency of the logarithmic values of discharge) and PBIAS (percentage deviation) less than 25%. The integration of SWAT and VIC models can be useful in different water-resource assessment studies. Therefore, based upon this study further investigations should be conducted using various hydrological models and climate, land-use and land-cover changes scenarios in the region.
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Carvalho, Vinícius Siqueira Oliveira, Lívia Alves Alvarenga, Pâmela Aparecida Melo, Javier Tomasella, Carlos Rogério de Mello, and Minella Alves Martins. "Climate change impact assessment in a tropical headwater basin." Ambiente e Agua - An Interdisciplinary Journal of Applied Science 17, no. 1 (January 20, 2022): 1–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.2753.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Changes in precipitation and air temperature may produce different impacts on the hydrological regime, compromising water supply. This study focuses on climate change impacts in the Verde River Basin (VRB), a tropical headwater basin in southeast Brazil, located in the state of Minas Gerais. The Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) was calibrated and validated in the Verde River Basin. The downscaling (Eta Regional Climate Model, at 20-km resolution) of three Global Circulation Models (CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5) were used to drive the VIC for a historical baseline (1961-2005) and three time-slices (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2099), under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The scenarios were used as input in the hydrological model after bias correction. The hydrological model (VIC) showed satisfactory statistical performance in calibration and validation, with CNS varying from 0.77 to 0.85 for daily and monthly discharges; however, it overestimated some peak flows and underestimated the recession flows. Multi-model ensemble means predict increases of the minimum and maximum monthly average temperature for the investigated area at the end of the century. The Eta-CanESM2 indicated greater warming, mainly for RCP8.5 at the end the century, whereas Eta-HadGEM2-ES showed higher reduction in the precipitation for RCP4.5 at the beginning of the century and for RCP8.5 at the end the century, negatively impacting the evapotranspiration and discharge. Among the Regional Climate Models (RCMs), the Eta-MIROC5 showed minor changes in the components of the hydrological cycle. This study suggests that Global Circulation Models represent an additional uncertainty, which should be accounted for in the climate change impact assessment.
Keywords: climate changes, RCP4.5, RCP8.5, VIC model.
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Najafi, Mohammad Reza, Francis Zwiers, and Nathan Gillett. "Attribution of the Observed Spring Snowpack Decline in British Columbia to Anthropogenic Climate Change." Journal of Climate 30, no. 11 (May 8, 2017): 4113–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0189.1.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract A detection and attribution analysis on the multidecadal trend in snow water equivalent (SWE) has been conducted in four river basins located in British Columbia (BC). Monthly output from a suite of 10 general circulation models (GCMs) that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is used, including 40 climate simulations with anthropogenic and natural forcing combined (ALL), 40 simulations with natural forcing alone (NAT), and approximately 4200 yr of preindustrial control simulations (CTL). This output was downscaled to ° spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model (VIC). Observed (manual snow survey) and VIC-reconstructed SWE, which exhibit declines across BC, are projected onto the multimodel ensemble means of the VIC-simulated SWE based on the responses to different forcings using an optimal fingerprinting approach. Results of the detection and attribution analysis shows that these declines are attributable to the anthropogenic forcing, which is dominated by the effect of increases in greenhouse gas concentration, and that they are not caused by natural forcing due to volcanic activity and solar variability combined. Anthropogenic influence is detected in three of the four basins (Fraser, Columbia, and Campbell Rivers) based on the VIC-reconstructed SWE, and in all basins based on the manual snow survey records. The simulations underestimate the observed snowpack trends in the Columbia River basin, which has the highest mean elevation. Attribution is supported by the detection of human influence on the cold-season temperatures that drive the snowpack reductions. These results are robust to the use of different observed datasets and to the treatment of low-frequency variability effects.
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Voisin, Nathalie, Florian Pappenberger, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Roberto Buizza, and John C. Schaake. "Application of a Medium-Range Global Hydrologic Probabilistic Forecast Scheme to the Ohio River Basin." Weather and Forecasting 26, no. 4 (August 1, 2011): 425–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-10-05032.1.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003–07. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and winds, and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel setup was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatial scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effects of the initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The hydrologic prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. The initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.
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Yue, JiaJia, Bo Pang, and ZongXue Xu. "Estimating parameters of the variable infiltration capacity model using ant colony optimization." Water Science and Technology 74, no. 4 (June 10, 2016): 985–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2016.282.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Because hydrological models are so important for addressing environmental problems, parameter calibration is a fundamental task for applying them. A broadly used method for obtaining model parameters for the past 20 years is the evolutionary algorithm. This approach can estimate a set of unknown model parameters by simulating the evolution process. The ant colony optimization (ACO) algorithm is a type of evolutionary algorithm that has shown a strong ability in tackling combinatorial problems and is suitable for hydrological model calibration. In this study, an ACO based on the grid partitioning strategy was applied to the parameter calibration of the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model for the Upper Heihe River basin and Xitiaoxi River basin, China. The shuffled complex evolution (SCE-UA) algorithm was used to test the applicability of the ACO. The results show that ACO is capable of model calibration of the VIC model; the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency is 0.62 and 0.81 in calibration and 0.65 and 0.86 in validation for the Upper Heihe River basin and Xitiaoxi River basin respectively, which are similar to the SCE-UA results. Despite the encouraging results obtained thus far, further studies could still be performed on the parameter optimization of an ACO to enlarge its applicability to more distributed hydrological models.
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Lobmeyr, M., D. Lohmann, and C. Ruhe. "An application of a large scale conceptual hydrological model over the Elbe region." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 3, no. 3 (September 30, 1999): 363–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-3-363-1999.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract. This paper investigates the ability of the VIC-2L model coupled to a routing model to reproduce streamflow in the catchment of the lower Elbe River, Germany. The VIC-2L model, a hydrologically-based land surface scheme (LSS) which has been tested extensively in the Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS), is put up on the rotated grid of 1/6 degree of the atmospheric regional scale model (REMO) used in the Baltic Sea Experiment (BALTEX). For a 10 year period, the VIC-2L model is forced in daily time steps with measured daily means of precipitation, air temperature, pressure, wind speed, air humidity and daily sunshine duration. VIC-2L model output of surface runoff and baseflow is used as input for the routing model, which transforms modelled runoff into streamflow, which is compared to measured streamflow at selected gauge stations. The water balance of the basin is investigated and the model results on daily, monthly and annual time scales are discussed. Discrepancies appear in time periods where snow and ice processes are important. Extreme flood events are analyzed in more dital. The influence of calibration with respect to runoff is examined.
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Chessman, BC, and DP Robinson. "Some effects of the 1982-83 drought on water quality and macroinvertebrate fauna in the lower La Trobe River, Victoria." Marine and Freshwater Research 38, no. 2 (1987): 289. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/mf9870289.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Following severe and prolonged drought, flows in parts of the lower LaTrobe River reached record lows in February 1983. Consequent lack of dilution for wastewater discharges resulted in marked deterioration of water quality, with dissolved oxygen concentration dropping to 2 g m-3 and electrical conductivity rising to 115 mS m-1. Despite these changes there was little alteration in the taxonomic richness or composition of the aquatic macroinvertebrate fauna. Faunal richness in the river downstream from Yallourn was low both before and after the drought, but the causative factors remain obscure.
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Zhang, Yueguan, Zhenchun Hao, Chong-Yu Xu, and Xide Lai. "Response of melt water and rainfall runoff to climate change and their roles in controlling streamflow changes of the two upstream basins over the Tibetan Plateau." Hydrology Research 51, no. 2 (October 10, 2019): 272–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/nh.2019.075.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract Located in the Tibetan Plateau, the upstream regions of the Mekong River (UM) and the Salween River (US) are very sensitive to climate change. The ‘VIC-glacier‘ model, which links a degree-day glacier algorithm with variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model, was employed and the model parameters were calibrated on observed streamflow, glacier mass balance and MODIS snowcover data. Results indicate that: (1) glacier-melt runoff exhibits a significant increase in both areas by the Mann–Kendall test. Snowmelt runoff shows an increasing trend in the UM, while the US is characterized by a decreasing tendency. In the UM, the snowmelt runoff peak shifts from June in the baseline period 1964–1990 to May for both the 1990s and 2000s; (2) rainfall runoff was considered as the first dominant factor driving changes of river discharge, which could be responsible for over 84% in total runoff trend over the two regions. The glacial runoff illustrates the secondary influence on the total runoff tendency; (3) although the hydrological regime is rain dominated in these two basins, the glacier compensation effect in these regions is obvious, especially in dry years.
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Islam, Siraj ul, Stephen J. Déry, and Arelia T. Werner. "Future Climate Change Impacts on Snow and Water Resources of the Fraser River Basin, British Columbia." Journal of Hydrometeorology 18, no. 2 (February 1, 2017): 473–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-16-0012.1.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract Changes in air temperature and precipitation can modify snowmelt-driven runoff in snowmelt-dominated regimes. This study focuses on climate change impacts on the snow hydrology of the Fraser River basin (FRB) of British Columbia (BC), Canada, using the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC). Statistically downscaled forcing datasets based on 12 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are used to drive VIC for two 30-yr time periods, a historical baseline (1980–2009) and future projections (2040–69: 2050s), under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The ensemble-based VIC simulations reveal widespread and regionally coherent spatial changes in snowfall, snow water equivalent (SWE), and snow cover over the FRB by the 2050s. While the mean precipitation is projected to increase slightly, the fraction of precipitation falling as snow is projected to decrease by nearly 50% in the 2050s compared to the baseline. Snow accumulation and snow-covered area are projected to decline substantially across the FRB, particularly in the Rocky Mountains. Onset of springtime snowmelt in the 2050s is projected to be nearly 25 days earlier than historically, yielding more runoff in the winter and spring for the Fraser River at Hope, BC, and earlier recession to low-flow volumes in summer. The ratio of snowmelt contribution to runoff decreases by nearly 20% in the Stuart and Nautley subbasins of the FRB in the 2050s. The decrease in SWE and loss of snow cover is greater from low to midelevations than in high elevations, where temperatures remain sufficiently cold for precipitation to fall as snow.
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Harris, J. H., G. Scarlett, and R. J. MacIntyre. "Effects of a pulp and paper mill on the ecology of the La Trobe River, Victoria, Australia." Hydrobiologia 246, no. 1 (October 1992): 49–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf00005622.
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Zhao, Qiudong, Shiqiang Zhang, Yong Jian Ding, Jian Wang, Haidong Han, Junli Xu, Chuancheng Zhao, Wanqin Guo, and Donghui Shangguan. "Modeling Hydrologic Response to Climate Change and Shrinking Glaciers in the Highly Glacierized Kunma Like River Catchment, Central Tian Shan." Journal of Hydrometeorology 16, no. 6 (November 13, 2015): 2383–402. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-14-0231.1.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract Arid and semiarid lowland areas of central Asia are largely dependent on fluvial water originating from the Tian Shan. Mountain glaciers contribute significantly to runoff, particularly in summer. With global warming, the total glacier area in the Kunma Like River catchment declined by 13.2% during 1990–2007. For future water resources, it is essential to quantify the responses of hydrologic processes to both climate change and shrinking glaciers in glacierized catchments, such as the headwaters of the Tarim River. Thus, a degree-day glacier melt algorithm was integrated into the macroscale hydrologic Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC). Good results were obtained for monthly runoff simulations in the Kunma Like River catchment, which suggest that the extended VIC has acceptable performance. Because of increased precipitation and air temperature, annual runoff in the catchment has increased by about 4.07 × 108 m3 decade−1 during 1984/85–2006/07. Under the assumption of the same climatic conditions, sensitivity analyses indicated that annual and summer river runoff volumes would decrease by 9.3% and 10.4%, respectively, for reductions in glacier area of 13.2%. The variation coefficient of annual runoff also increased because of shrinking glaciers. Runoff scenarios for warmer future climate and various deglaciation situations suggest that reductions in glacier area by >30% will likely produce less meltwater in summer and river runoff will decline. Consequently, the annual total discharge of the Kunma Like River is projected to decrease by 2.8%–19.4% in the 2050s scenario because of glacier shrinking.
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Carvalho, Vinícius Siqueira Oliveira, Lívia Alves Alvarenga, Conceição De Maria Marques de Oliveira, Javier Tomasella, Alberto Colombo, and Pâmela Aparecida Melo. "Impact of climate change on monthly streamflow in the Verde River Basin using two hydrological models." Ambiente e Agua - An Interdisciplinary Journal of Applied Science 16, no. 4 (July 14, 2021): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.2683.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This study assessed the impact of climate change on monthly streamflow in the Verde River Basin, located in the Grande River Basin headwater. For this purpose, the SWAT and VIC hydrological models were used to simulate the monthly streamflow under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, obtained by Regional Climate Models Eta-HadGEM2-ES, Eta-CanESM2 and Eta-MIROC5 in the baseline period (1961-2005) and three time-slice (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099) inputs. At the end of the century, the Eta-HadGEM2-ES showed larger decrease of precipitation in both radiative scenarios, with an annual reduction of 17.4 (RCP4.5) and 32.3% (RCP8.5), while the Eta-CanESM2 indicated major warming, with an annual increase of 4.7 and 10.2°C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. As well as precipitation changes, the Eta-HadGEM2-ES also showed greater impacts on streamflow under RCP4.5 for the first time-slice (2011-2040), with an annual decrease of 58.0% for both hydrological models, and for the RCP8.5 scenario by the end the century (2071-2099), with an annual reduction of 54.0 (VIC model) and 56.8% (SWAT model). Regarding monthly streamflow, the Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-CanESM2 inputs indicated decrease under the RCP8.5 scenario by the end the century, varying from 7.2 to 66.3 % (VIC model) and 37.0 to 64.7% (SWAT model). In general, Eta-MIROC5 presented the opposite in terms of direction in the simulations with both hydrological models at the end of the century. Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and scenarios of climate change should be considered in assessments of uncertainties of climate change impacts.
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Malek, Keyvan, Claudio Stöckle, Kiran Chinnayakanahalli, Roger Nelson, Mingliang Liu, Kirti Rajagopalan, Muhammad Barik, and Jennifer C. Adam. "VIC–CropSyst-v2: A regional-scale modeling platform to simulate the nexus of climate, hydrology, cropping systems, and human decisions." Geoscientific Model Development 10, no. 8 (August 17, 2017): 3059–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3059-2017.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract. Food supply is affected by a complex nexus of land, atmosphere, and human processes, including short- and long-term stressors (e.g., drought and climate change, respectively). A simulation platform that captures these complex elements can be used to inform policy and best management practices to promote sustainable agriculture. We have developed a tightly coupled framework using the macroscale variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model and the CropSyst agricultural model. A mechanistic irrigation module was also developed for inclusion in this framework. Because VIC–CropSyst combines two widely used and mechanistic models (for crop phenology, growth, management, and macroscale hydrology), it can provide realistic and hydrologically consistent simulations of water availability, crop water requirements for irrigation, and agricultural productivity for both irrigated and dryland systems. This allows VIC–CropSyst to provide managers and decision makers with reliable information on regional water stresses and their impacts on food production. Additionally, VIC–CropSyst is being used in conjunction with socioeconomic models, river system models, and atmospheric models to simulate feedback processes between regional water availability, agricultural water management decisions, and land–atmosphere interactions. The performance of VIC–CropSyst was evaluated on both regional (over the US Pacific Northwest) and point scales. Point-scale evaluation involved using two flux tower sites located in agricultural fields in the US (Nebraska and Illinois). The agreement between recorded and simulated evapotranspiration (ET), applied irrigation water, soil moisture, leaf area index (LAI), and yield indicated that, although the model is intended to work on regional scales, it also captures field-scale processes in agricultural areas.
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Jin, Junliang, Guoqing Wang, Jianyun Zhang, Qinli Yang, Cuishan Liu, Yanli Liu, Zhenxin Bao, and Ruimin He. "Impacts of climate change on hydrology in the Yellow River source region, China." Journal of Water and Climate Change 11, no. 3 (September 3, 2018): 916–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2018.085.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract Variations of precipitation, temperature, and runoff in the Yellow River source region were analyzed with the Mann–Kendall and Spearman rank correlation tests over the past 60 years. Based on the seven climate scenarios from CMIP5 climate models under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, responses of hydrological process to climate change were simulated using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Variation analysis results indicated that recorded temperature presented significant increasing trend. Daily minimum temperature presented higher increasing trend than daily maximum temperature. Annual gross precipitation presented minor increasing and annual runoff presented minor decreasing. The VIC model performed well on simulating monthly discharge at Tangnaihai station, with NSE of 0.91 and 0.93 in calibration and validation periods, respectively. The projected annual mean temperature would rise (with 25th and 75th percentiles) 1.07–1.32 °C, 1.76–2.33 °C, 3.45–4.29 °C, annual precipitation is expected to increase 3.43%–11.77%, 8.05%–17.27%, 12.84%–27.89%, and runoff would moderately increase with high variability of 0.82%–14.26%, −3.41%–19.14%, 1.43%–38.26% relative to the baseline of 1961–1990 under each RCP in the 2080s, respectively. The inhomogeneity of runoff may increase in the future. Many more droughts and floods under climate change may threaten social development in this region in the future.
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Marchant, R. "Seasonal and longitudinal patterns in the macroinvertebrate communities of cobbles from the upper La Trobe River, Victoria, Australia." SIL Proceedings, 1922-2010 23, no. 3 (October 1988): 1389–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03680770.1987.11898028.
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So, Jae-Min, Joo-Heon Lee, and Deg-Hyo Bae. "Development of a Hydrological Drought Forecasting Model Using Weather Forecasting Data from GloSea5." Water 12, no. 10 (October 6, 2020): 2785. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12102785.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
This study developed a hydrological drought forecasting framework linked to the meteorological model and land surface model (LSM) considering hydrologic facilities and evaluated the feasibility of the Modified Surface Water Supply Index (MSWSI) for drought forecasts in South Korea. The Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5) and variable infiltration capacity (VIC) models were adapted for meteorological and hydrological models for ensemble weather forecasts and corresponding hydrologic river and dam inflow forecasts, respectively. Instead of direct use for weather and runoff forecasts, the anomaly between the ensemble forecast and hindcast data for each month was computed. Then, the monthly forecasted weather and runoff were obtained by adding this anomaly and the statistical nominal values obtained from the average monthly runoff during the last 30 years. For the selection of drought index duration, past historical observation data and drought records were used, and the 3-month period of the MSWSI outperformed any other durations in the study area. In addition, the simulated monthly river and dam inflows agreed well with the observed inflows; therefore, the model-driven runoff data from the VIC model were usable for hydrological drought forecasts. A case study result for the 2015–2016 drought event demonstrated that the hydrological drought forecasting framework suggested in this study is reliable for drought forecasting up to a 2-month forecast lead time. It is therefore concluded that the proposed framework linked with GloSea5, the VIC model and MSWSI(3) provides useful information for supporting decision-making related to water supply and management.
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Zhu, Bin, Yuhan Huang, Zengxin Zhang, Rui Kong, Jiaxi Tian, Yichen Zhou, Sheng Chen, and Zheng Duan. "Evaluation of TMPA Satellite Precipitation in Driving VIC Hydrological Model over the Upper Yangtze River Basin." Water 12, no. 11 (November 18, 2020): 3230. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12113230.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Although the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) has come to an end, the evaluation of TRMM satellite precipitation is still of great significance for the improvement of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM). In this paper, the hydrological utility of TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 RTV7/V7 precipitation products was evaluated using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model in the upper Yangtze River basin. The main results show that (1) TMPA 3B42V7 had a reliable performance in precipitation estimation compared with the gauged precipitation on both spatial and temporal scales over the upper Yangtze River basin. Although TMPA 3B42V7 slightly underestimated precipitation, TMPA 3B42RTV7 significantly overestimated precipitation at daily and monthly time scales; (2) the simulated runoff by the VIC hydrological model showed a high correlation with the gauged runoff and lower bias at daily and monthly time scales. The Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSCE) value was as high as 0.85, the relative bias (RB) was −6.36% and the correlation coefficient (CC) was 0.93 at the daily scale; (3) the accuracy of the 3B42RTV7-driven runoff simulation had been greatly improved by using the hydrological calibration parameters obtained from 3B42RTV7 compared with that of gauged precipitation. A lower RB (14.38% vs. 66.58%) and a higher CC (0.87 vs. 0.85) and NSCE (0.71 vs. −0.92) can be found at daily time scales when we use satellite data instead of gauged precipitation data to calibrate the VIC model. However, the performance of the 3B42V7-driven runoff simulation did not improve in the same operation accordingly. The cause might be that the 3B42V7 satellite products have been adjusted by gauged precipitation. This study suggests that it might be better to calibrate the parameters using satellite data in hydrological simulations, especially for unadjusted satellite data. This study is not only helpful for understanding the assessment of multi-satellite precipitation products in large-scale and complex areas in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, but also can provide a reference for the hydrological utility of the satellite precipitation products in other river basins of the world.
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Sinha, T., and A. Sankarasubramanian. "Role of climate forecasts and initial land-surface conditions in developing operational streamflow and soil moisture forecasts in a rainfall-runoff regime: skill assessment." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 9, no. 4 (April 19, 2012): 5225–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-9-5225-2012.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract. Skillful seasonal streamflow forecasts obtained from climate and land surface conditions could significantly improve water and energy management. Since climate forecasts are updated on monthly basis, we evaluate the potential in developing operational monthly streamflow forecasts on a continuous basis throughout the year. Further, basins in the rainfall-runoff regime critically depend on the forecasted precipitation in the upcoming months as opposed to snowmelt regimes where initial hydrological conditions (IHC) play a critical role. The goal of this study is to quantify the role of monthly updated precipitation forecasts and IHC in forecasting 6-month lead monthly streamflow for a rainfall-runoff mechanism dominated basin – Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee, FL. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model is implemented with two forcings: (a) monthly updated precipitation forecasts from ECHAM4.5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) forced with sea surface temperature forecasts and (b) daily climatological ensemble. The difference in skill between the above two quantifies the improvements that could be attainable using the AGCM forecasts. Monthly retrospective streamflow forecasts are developed from 1981 to 2010 and streamflow forecasts estimated from the VIC model are also compared with those predicted by using the principal component regression (PCR) model. Mean square error (MSE) in predicting monthly streamflow using the above VIC model are compared with the MSE of streamflow climatology under ENSO conditions as well as under normal years. Results indicate that VIC forecasts, at 1–2 month lead time, obtained using ECHAM4.5 are significantly better than VIC forecasts obtained using climatological ensemble over all the seasons except forecasts issued in fall and the PCR models perform better during the fall months. Over longer lead times (3–6 months), VIC forecasts derived using ECHAM4.5 forcings alone performed better compared to the MSE of streamflow climatology during winter and spring seasons. During ENSO years, streamflow forecasts exhibit better skill even up to six month lead time. Comparison of the seasonal soil moisture forecasts developed using ECHAM4.5 forcings with seasonal streamflow also show significant skill at 1–3 month lead time over the all four seasons.
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Zhang, Yuqing, Qinglong You, Changchun Chen, Jing Ge, and Muhammad Adnan. "Evaluation of Downscaled CMIP5 Coupled with VIC Model for Flash Drought Simulation in a Humid Subtropical Basin, China." Journal of Climate 31, no. 3 (January 18, 2018): 1075–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-17-0378.1.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract Compared to traditional drought events, flash droughts evolve rapidly during short-term extreme atmospheric conditions, with a lasting period of one pentad to several weeks. There are two main categories of flash droughts: the heat wave flash drought (HWFD), which is mainly caused by persistent high temperatures (heat waves), and the precipitation deficit flash drought (PDFD), which is mainly triggered by precipitation deficits. The authors’ previous research focused on the characteristics and causes of flash drought based on meteorological observations and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model simulations in a humid subtropical basin (Gan River basin, China). In this study, the authors evaluated the downscaled phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models’ simulations, coupled with the VIC model (CMIP5–VIC) in reproducing flash droughts in a humid subtropical basin in China. Most downscaled CMIP5–VIC simulations can reproduce the spatial patterns of flash droughts with respect to the benchmarks. The coupled models fail to readily replicate interannual variation (interannual pentad change), but most models can reflect the interannual variability (temporal standard deviation) and long-term average pentads of flash droughts. It is difficult to simultaneously depict both the spatial and temporal features of flash droughts within only one coupled model. The climatological patterns of the best multimodel ensemble mean are close to those of the all-model ensemble mean, but the best multimodel ensemble mean has a minimal bias range and relatively low computational burden.
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Su, Fengge, and Dennis P. Lettenmaier. "Estimation of the Surface Water Budget of the La Plata Basin." Journal of Hydrometeorology 10, no. 4 (August 1, 2009): 981–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009jhm1100.1.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface hydrology model forced by gridded observed precipitation and temperature for the period 1979–99 is used to simulate the land surface water balance of the La Plata basin (LPB). The modeled water balance is evaluated with streamflow observations from the major tributaries of the LPB. The spatiotemporal variability of the water balance terms of the LPB are then evaluated using offline VIC model simulations, the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40), and inferences obtained from a combination of these two. The seasonality and interannual variability of the water balance terms vary across the basin. Over the Uruguay River basin and the entire LPB, precipitation (P) exceeds evapotranspiration (E) and the basins act as a moisture sink. However, the Paraguay River basin acts as a net source of moisture in dry seasons (strong negative P − E). The annual means and monthly time series of ERA-40 P are in good agreement with gauge observations over the entire LPB and its subbasins, except for the Uruguay basin. The E estimates from VIC and inferred from the ERA-40 atmospheric moisture budget are consistent in both seasonal and interannual variations over the entire LPB, but large discrepancies exist between the two E estimates over the subbasins. The long-term mean of atmospheric moisture convergence P − E agrees well with observed runoff R for the upper Paraná River basin, whereas the imbalance is large (28%) for the Uruguay basin—possibly because of its small size. Major problems appear over the Paraguay basin with negative long-term mean of atmospheric moisture convergence P − E, which is not physically realistic. The computed precipitation recycling in the LPB (for L = 500 km) exhibits strong seasonal and spatial variations with ratios of 0%–3% during the cold season and 5%–7% during the warm season.
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Stephen, H., S. Ahmad, T. C. Piechota, and C. Tang. "Relating surface backscatter response from TRMM Precipitation Radar to soil moisture: results over a semi-arid region." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 6, no. 5 (October 22, 2009): 6425–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-6-6425-2009.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) carries aboard the Precipitation Radar (TRMMPR) that measures the backscatter (σ°) of the surface. σ° is sensitive to surface soil moisture and vegetation conditions. Due to sparse vegetation in arid and semi-arid regions, TRMMPR σ° primarily depends on the soil water content. In this study we relate TRMMPR σ° measurements to soil water content (ms) in Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB). σ° dependence on ms is studied for different vegetation greenness values determined through Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). A new model of σ° that couples incidence angle, ms, and NDVI is used to derive parameters and retrieve soil water content. The calibration and validation of this model are performed using simulated and measured ms data. Simulated ms is estimated using Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model whereas measured ms is acquired from ground measuring stations in Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW). σ° model is calibrated using VIC and WGEW ms data during 1998 and the calibrated model is used to derive ms during later years. The temporal trends of derived ms are consistent with VIC and WGEW ms data with correlation coefficient (R) of 0.89 and 0.74, respectively. Derived ms is also consistent with the measured precipitation data with R=0.76. The gridded VIC data is used to calibrate the model at each grid point in LCRB and spatial maps of the model parameters are prepared. The model parameters are spatially coherent with the general regional topography in LCRB. TRMMPR σ° derived soil moisture maps during May (dry) and August (wet) 1999 are spatially similar to VIC estimates with correlation 0.67 and 0.76, respectively. This research provides new insights into Ku-band σ° dependence on soil water content in the arid regions.
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Stephen, H., S. Ahmad, T. C. Piechota, and C. Tang. "Relating surface backscatter response from TRMM precipitation radar to soil moisture: results over a semi-arid region." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 14, no. 2 (February 5, 2010): 193–204. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-193-2010.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) carries aboard the Precipitation Radar (TRMMPR) that measures the backscatter (σ°) of the surface. σ° is sensitive to surface soil moisture and vegetation conditions. Due to sparse vegetation in arid and semi-arid regions, TRMMPR σ° primarily depends on the soil water content. In this study we relate TRMMPR σ° measurements to soil water content (ms) in the Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB). σ° dependence on ms is studied for different vegetation greenness values determined through Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). A new model of σ° that couples incidence angle, ms, and NDVI is used to derive parameters and retrieve soil water content. The calibration and validation of this model are performed using simulated and measured ms data. Simulated ms is estimated using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and measured ms is acquired from ground measuring stations in Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW). σ° model is calibrated using VIC and WGEW ms data during 1998 and the calibrated model is used to derive ms during later years. The temporal trends of derived ms are consistent with VIC and WGEW ms data with a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.89 and 0.74, respectively. Derived ms is also consistent with the measured precipitation data with R=0.76. The gridded VIC data is used to calibrate the model at each grid point in LCRB and spatial maps of the model parameters are prepared. The model parameters are spatially coherent with the general regional topography in LCRB. TRMMPR σ° derived soil moisture maps during May (dry) and August (wet) 1999 are spatially similar to VIC estimates with correlation 0.67 and 0.76, respectively. This research provides new insights into Ku-band σ° dependence on soil water content in the arid regions.
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O’Bryan, Katie. "The changing face of river management in Victoria: The Yarra River Protection (Wilip-gin Birrarung murron) Act 2017 (Vic)." Water International 44, no. 6-7 (May 23, 2019): 769–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2019.1616370.
Повний текст джерела
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Naha, Shaini, Praveen K. Thakur, and S. P. Aggarwal. "Hydrological Modelling and data assimilation of Satellite Snow Cover Area using a Land Surface Model, VIC." ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences XLI-B8 (June 23, 2016): 353–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-xli-b8-353-2016.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The snow cover plays an important role in Himalayan region as it contributes a useful amount to the river discharge. So, besides estimating rainfall runoff, proper assessment of snowmelt runoff for efficient management and water resources planning is also required. A Land Surface Model, VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) is used at a high resolution grid size of 1 km. Beas river basin up to Thalot in North West Himalayas (NWH) have been selected as the study area. At first model setup is done and VIC has been run in its energy balance mode. The fluxes obtained from VIC has been routed to simulate the discharge for the time period of (2003-2006). Data Assimilation is done for the year 2006 and the techniques of Data Assimilation considered in this study are Direct Insertion (D.I) and Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) that uses observations of snow covered area (SCA) to update hydrologic model states. The meteorological forcings were taken from 0.5 deg. resolution VIC global forcing data from 1979-2006 with daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature from Climate Research unit (CRU), rainfall from daily variability of NCEP and wind speed from NCEP-NCAR analysis as main inputs and Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) data of 0.25 °. NBSSLUP soil map and land use land cover map of ISRO-GBP project for year 2014 were used for generating the soil parameters and vegetation parameters respectively. The threshold temperature i.e. the minimum rain temperature is -0.5°C and maximum snow temperature is about +0.5°C at which VIC can generate snow fluxes. Hydrological simulations were done using both NCEP and IMD based meteorological Forcing datasets, but very few snow fluxes were obtained using IMD data met forcing, whereas NCEP based met forcing has given significantly better snow fluxes throughout the simulation years as the temperature resolution as given by IMD data is 0.5°C and rainfall resolution of 0.25°C. The simulated discharge has been validated using observed data from BBMB (Bhakra Beas Management Board) and coefficient of Correlation(R<sup>2</sup>) measured for (2003-2006) was 0.67 and 0.61 for the year 2006.But as VIC does not consider snowmelt runoff as a part of the total discharge, snowmelt runoff has been estimated for the simulation both with and without D.A. The snow fluxes as generated from VIC gives basin average estimates of Snow Cover, SWE, Snow Depth and Snow melt. It has been observed to be overestimated when model predicted snow cover is compared with MODIS SCA of 500 m resolution from MOD10A2 for each year. So MODIS 8-day snow cover area has been assimilated directly into the model state as well as by using EnKF after every 8 days for the year 2006.D.I Technique performed well as compared to EnKF. R<sup>2</sup> between Model SCA and MODIS SCA is estimated as 0.73 after D.I with Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of +0.19. After direct Insertion of D.A, SCA has been reduced comparatively which resulted in 7% reduction of annual snowmelt contribution to total discharge.The assimilation of MODIS SCA data hence improved the snow cover area (SCA) fraction and finally updated other snow components.
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Vegad, Urmin, and Vimal Mishra. "Ensemble streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in Narmada River Basin, India." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 26, no. 24 (December 16, 2022): 6361–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6361-2022.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract. Developing an ensemble hydrological prediction system is essential for reservoir operations and flood early warning. However, efforts to build hydrological ensemble prediction systems considering the influence of reservoirs have been lacking in India. We examine the potential of the Extended Range Forecast System (ERFS, 16 ensemble members) and Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS, 21 ensemble members) forecast for streamflow prediction in India using the Narmada River Basin as a test bed. We use the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) with reservoir operations (VIC-Res) scheme to simulate the daily river flow at four locations in the Narmada Basin. Streamflow prediction skills of the ERFS forecast were examined for the period 2003–2018 at 1–32 d lead. We compared the streamflow forecast skills of raw meteorological forecasts from ERFS and GEFS at a 1–10 d lead for the summer monsoon (June–September) 2019–2020. The ERFS forecast underestimates extreme precipitation against the observations compared to the GEFS forecast during the summer monsoon of 2019–2020. However, both forecast products show better skills for minimum and maximum temperatures than precipitation. Ensemble streamflow forecast from the GEFS performs better than the ERFS during 2019–2020. The performance of GEFS-based ensemble streamflow forecast declines after 5 days lead. Overall, the GEFS ensemble streamflow forecast can provide reliable skills at a 1–5 d lead, which can be utilized in streamflow prediction. Our findings provide directions for developing a flood early warning system based on ensemble streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in India.
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Curry, Charles L., and Francis W. Zwiers. "Examining controls on peak annual streamflow and floods in the Fraser River Basin of British Columbia." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22, no. 4 (April 16, 2018): 2285–309. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2285-2018.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract. The Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia is one of the largest and most important watersheds in western North America, and home to a rich diversity of biological species and economic assets that depend implicitly upon its extensive riverine habitats. The hydrology of the FRB is dominated by snow accumulation and melt processes, leading to a prominent annual peak streamflow invariably occurring in May–July. Nevertheless, while annual peak daily streamflow (APF) during the spring freshet in the FRB is historically well correlated with basin-averaged, 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE), there are numerous occurrences of anomalously large APF in below- or near-normal SWE years, some of which have resulted in damaging floods in the region. An imperfect understanding of which other climatic factors contribute to these anomalously large APFs hinders robust projections of their magnitude and frequency. We employ the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) process-based hydrological model driven by gridded observations to investigate the key controlling factors of anomalous APF events in the FRB and four of its subbasins that contribute nearly 70 % of the annual flow at Fraser-Hope. The relative influence of a set of predictors characterizing the interannual variability of rainfall, snowfall, snowpack (characterized by the annual maximum value, SWEmax), soil moisture and temperature on simulated APF at Hope (the main outlet of the FRB) and at the subbasin outlets is examined within a regression framework. The influence of large-scale climate modes of variability (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation – ENSO) on APF magnitude is also assessed, and placed in context with these more localized controls. The results indicate that next to SWEmax (univariate Spearman correlation with APF of ρ^ = 0.64; 0.70 (observations; VIC simulation)), the snowmelt rate (ρ^ = 0.43 in VIC), the ENSO and PDO indices (ρ^ = −0.40; −0.41) and (ρ^ = −0.35; −0.38), respectively, and rate of warming subsequent to the date of SWEmax (ρ^ = 0.26; 0.38), are the most influential predictors of APF magnitude in the FRB and its subbasins. The identification of these controls on annual peak flows in the region may be of use in understanding seasonal predictions or future projected streamflow changes.
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Mo, Kingtse C. "Model-Based Drought Indices over the United States." Journal of Hydrometeorology 9, no. 6 (December 1, 2008): 1212–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008jhm1002.1.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract Drought indices derived from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and Noah models from 1950 to 2000 are intercompared and evaluated for their ability to classify drought across the United States. For meteorological drought, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) is used to measure precipitation deficits. The standardized runoff index (SRI), which is similar to the SPI, is used to classify hydrological drought. Agricultural drought is measured by monthly-mean soil moisture (SM) anomaly percentiles based on probability distributions (PDs). The PDs for total SM are regionally dependent and influenced by the seasonal cycle, but the PDs for SM monthly-mean anomalies are unimodal and Gaussian. Across the eastern United States (east of 95°W), the indices derived from VIC and Noah are similar, and they are able to detect the same drought events. Indices are also well correlated. For river forecast centers (RFCs) across the eastern United States, different drought indices are likely to detect the same drought events. The monthly-mean soil moisture (SM) percentiles and runoff indices between VIC and Noah have large differences across the western interior of the United States. For small areas with a horizontal resolution of 0.5° on the time scales of one to three months, the differences of SM percentiles and SRI between VIC and Noah are larger than the thresholds used to classify drought. For the western RFCs, drought events selected according to SM percentiles or SRI derived from different NLDAS systems do not always overlap.
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Wang, Zhaoli, Jiachao Chen, Chengguang Lai, Ruida Zhong, Xiaohong Chen, and Haijun Yu. "Hydrologic assessment of the TMPA 3B42-V7 product in a typical alpine and gorge region: the Lancang River basin, China." Hydrology Research 49, no. 6 (July 9, 2018): 2002–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/nh.2018.024.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
Abstract To evaluate the accuracy and applicability of the TMPA 3B42-V7 precipitation product for the Lancang River basin, we used different statistical indices to explore the performance of the product in comparison to gauge data. Then, we performed a hydrologic simulation using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model with two scenarios (Scenario I: streamflow simulation using gauge-calibrated parameters; Scenario II: streamflow simulation using 3B42-V7-recalibrated parameters) to verify the applicability of the product. The results of the precipitation analysis show good accuracy of the V7 precipitation data. The accuracy increases with the increase of both space and time scales, while time scale increases cause a stronger effect. The satellite can accurately measure most of the precipitation but tends to misidentify non-precipitation events as light precipitation events (<1 mm/day). The results of the hydrologic simulation show that the VIC hydrological model has good applicability for the Lancang River basin. However, 3B42-V7 data did not perform as well under Scenario I with the lowest Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSCE) of 0.42; Scenario II suggests that the error drops significantly and the NSCE increases to 0.70 or beyond. In addition, the simulation accuracy increases with increased temporal scale.
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Luong, Nguyen Duc, Nguyen Hoang Hiep, and Thi Hieu Bui. "Investigating the Spatio-Temporal Variation of Soil Moisture and Agricultural Drought towards Supporting Water Resources Management in the Red River Basin of Vietnam." Sustainability 13, no. 9 (April 28, 2021): 4926. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13094926.
Повний текст джерелаАнотація:
The increasing serious droughts recently might have significant impacts on socioeconomic development in the Red River basin (RRB). This study applied the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model to investigate spatio-temporal dynamics of soil moisture in the northeast, northwest, and Red River Delta (RRD) regions of the RRB part belongs to territory of Vietnam. The soil moisture dataset simulated for 10 years (2005–2014) was utilized to establish the soil moisture anomaly percentage index (SMAPI) for assessing intensity of agricultural drought. Soil moisture appeared to co-vary with precipitation, air temperature, evapotranspiration, and various features of land cover, topography, and soil type in three regions of the RRB. SMAPI analysis revealed that more areas in the northeast experienced severe droughts compared to those in other regions, especially in the dry season and transitional months. Meanwhile, the northwest mainly suffered from mild drought and a slightly wet condition during the dry season. Different from that, the RRD mainly had moderately to very wet conditions throughout the year. The areas of both agricultural and forested lands associated with severe drought in the dry season were larger than those in the wet season. Generally, VIC-based soil moisture approach offered a feasible solution for improving soil moisture and agricultural drought monitoring capabilities at the regional scale.