Дисертації з теми "International Monetary Theory"

Chapter 2 of this thesis employs a dynamic general equilibrium with Taylor wage contracts to show that the use of strict inflation targeting as a disinflation policy may result in a slump in production and a considerable increase in macroeconomic volatility. Important determinants of the magnitude of the macroeconomic oscillations in the post-disinflation state of the economy turn out to be the size of the reduction in the inflation rate and the degree of returns to labor in the production function. In the special case of constant returns, the oscillations are large and permanent. Chapter 3 of this thesis extends the above analysis to an open-economy setting demonstrating that the exchange rate can act as a stabilizer by effectively relieving wages from part of the burden of reducing the inflation rate. The more the economy is open, the smaller the magnitude of the macroeconomic oscillations will be after the disinflation policy is applied. The policy is shown to be infeasible for all practical purposes in a closed economy with constant returns to scale when the full nonlinear model is considered. Chapter 4 of this thesis employs a Markov switching framework to allow for an interesting alternative characterization of macroeconomic news effects on the foreign exchange market. The chapter finds strong evidence for the presence of nonlinear regime switching between a high-volatility and a low volatility state driven by monetary policy announcements that come as a surprise to the market. It also uncovers significant market positioning prior to the announcements, indicating a limiting of risk exposure by market participants who are unsure about the precise outcome of the policy decisions. Chapter 5 of this thesis investigates the impact of monetary shocks on the direction and the composition of international capital flows. It identifies monetary policy shocks in a structural VAR via the pure sign restrictions approach. There are two key findings. First, a US monetary easing causes net capital inflows and a worsening of the US trade balance. Second, monetary policy shocks induce a negative conditional correlation between capital flows in bonds and equity securities. Intriguingly, they cause a negative conditional correlation between equity flows and equity returns but a positive conditional correlation between bond flows and bond returns.

Cette thèse comprend quatre essais en macroéconomie internationale et théorie monétaire. Elle est constituée de deux parties. Les deux premiers chapitres, coécrits avec François Geerolf, étudient les conséquences macroéconomiques des cycles immobiliers sur les comptes courants (chapitre 1) et sur les dynamiques de l'emploi (chapitre 2). La seconde partie de cette thèse s'intéresse aux conséquences des récentes transformations intervenues dans les systèmes bancaires sur les mécanismes de la création monétaire. Ces transformations semblent en effet conduire à une privatisation de la monnaie. Le chapitre 3 étudie empiriquement la réalité d'une telle privatisation. Je développe dans le chapitre 4 un modèle pour analyser les conséquences de ces transformations sur la création monétaire et sur les mécanismes de propagation du risque
This thesis includes four essays in international macroeconomics and monetary theory. It is divided into two parts. The two first chapters, coauthored with François Geerolf, investigate the macroeconomic consequences of housing cycles on current accounts (chapter 1) and employment dynamics (chapter 2). The second part of this thesis studies the consequences of modern banking features on money creation mechanisms, notably with the development of private payment arrangements and the globalization of banking. Chapter 3 looks at the issue empirically. In chapter 4, I develop a model to investigate the consequences of these modern banking features for the provision of money and for risk propagation mechanisms

This thesis is comprised of six Chapters on US Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy and their interaction with fiscal policy, both domestically and internationally. Chapter 1 introduces the main themes of the thesis. Chapter 2 studies the theoretical background of the thesis. After setting out key themes and the theoretical background in the introductory Chapters, the first core Chapter, i.e. thesis Chapter 3, examines the interaction between fiscal and monetary policy. Price puzzles are a repeated feature of empirical VAR models studying the effect of monetary policy. These price puzzles are often believed to appear due to the lack of information. However, we show that whether monetary and fiscal policy are active or passive influences the appearance of the price puzzle. This is because an active fiscal policy and a passive monetary policy can encourage private expenditure through a positive wealth channel. An active fiscal policy means fiscal authorities set expenditure regardless of tax revenues, while a passive monetary policy refers to a weak response of the policy interest rate to inflation. Finally, we find evidence in this Chapter that fiscal policy stimulates economic activity, i.e. it is non-Ricardian. Chapter 4 examines the effect of monetary and fiscal policy interactions in an international context. In particular, it considers the international spillovers of US monetary policy, whilst account for fiscal policy. This Chapter shows that US government debt influences the duration of the responses to a monetary contraction. Furthermore, it is shown that an increase in US government debt influences both the short and long-term interest rates, inflation, and output in the Euro Area and UK. This is through a positive wealth effect. In addition, the results of Persistence Profiles test, i.e. how fast we converge upon equilibrium following a shock, suggest that accounting for US government debt delays the return to equilibrium following monetary policy shocks. This may be due to the impact of fiscal policy on inflation and its persistence. Chapter 5 studies Unconventional Monetary Policy (UMP). It is shown that UMP increases output and inflation in the US, and generates spillovers to the Euro Area and UK. Furthermore, we present evidence that the portfolio balance is the transmission channel of UMP. That is UMP contributes to lowering the bound yields while it increases the price of assets. Chapter 6 concludes and summarizes the thesis, and provides a discussion of policy implications.

This thesis examines the multi-lateral considerations that, in our view, underlay the formulation of monetary policy in India in the period between the two world wars. During and after the First World War, Britain faced a severe liquidity crisis. We argue that monetary policy in India was formulated to take account of this crisis. Traditionally, India was a large absorber of gold on the non-monetary account. The persistent aim of British monetary policy in the Indian context during the entire interwar period was that of not allowing India to set up a monetary demand for gold in addition to her non-monetary demand for it and secondly, through deflationary policies (including exchange rate adjustments), to limit India's non-monetary gold demands to the minimum. Indian gold exports during the depression, which gave room for manoeuvre in the management of the sterling after September 1931, were a logical sequel to this policy. The British liquidity crisis in this period took the form of her current account surpluses being inadequate to support a high level of overseas lending. Besides, in an uncertain financial environment, Britain was a large short-term debtor as the British bank rate acted as much to increase her short-term liabilities as it did by calling in her short-term assets. The British desire to return to gold at the pre-1914 parity required domestic deflation which itself was a matter of severe political contention. In the circumstances, Britain hoped her return to gold would be accomplished by a US inflation and US export of capital. Compounding this situation was the thinly veiled fear, in Britain, of the erosion of the key currency role of the sterling and the loss of its global financial leadership to the USA. Control over Indian monetary policy and its outcome proved valuable to Britain in this environment.

Monetary funding to developing countries is today accompanied by so called “Structural Adjustment Programs” (SAPs) imposed by the IMF and the World Bank, consisting of economical policy reforms that the countries have to undergo in order to be eligible for loans. The impact of these adjustment loans is widely criticized due to the negative effects observed. Our purpose is to investigate in depth why these adjustment programs have not delivered the expected results. We’ve found that there exist some undesirable consequences following SAP implementation that has a hindering effect on growth. These, combined with the complicate context in which the IMF and World Bank operates can be seen as the explanation for the adversity experienced.

ABSTRACT THE DOMINANCE OF THE DOLLAR AND ITS SUSTAINABILITY IN THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM Kö
se, Tekin M.S., Department of Economics Supervisor: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Aylin Ege June 2008, 121 pages The aim of this thesis is to analyze and evaluate the dominance of the dollar and its sustainability in the international monetary system in the light of recent literature and relevant statistical data. Considering the determinants of an international currency, this thesis focuses on the linkages of the dominance of the dollar with the challenge of the euro as an alternative international currency, the current account deficit of the U.S. and foreign exchange reserve accumulation and reserve diversification decision of foreign central banks. The analysis on these determinants indicates that the U.S. dollar is facing many challenges and may face further challenges in sustaining its dominance as an international currency. Given the significance of the U.S. economy and dominance of the dollar as an international currency, the findings of this study indicate that although the euro has not much potential to surpass the dollar as an international currency in the short-term, it is more likely for the international monetary system to witness the existence of multiple international currencies and decline in the degree of the dominance of the dollar in the 21st century.

Thesis (PhD)--Macquarie University, Division of Economic and Financial Studies, Dept. of Economics, 1999.
Bibliography: p. 232-255.
Introduction -- Cheap money and Ottawa -- The World Economic Conference -- F.L. McDougall -- The beginnings of the 'employment approach' -- Coombs and consolidation -- Bretton Woods -- An international employment agreement -- The 'employment approach' reconsidered -- The Keynesian 'revolution' in Australia -- Conclusion.
Between 1925 and 1950, Australian economists embarked on a series of campaigns to influence international policy-making. The three distinct episodes of these campaigns were unified by the conviction that 'expansionary' economic policies by all countries could solve the world's economic problems. As well as being driven by self-interest (given Australia's dependence on commodity exports), the campaigns were motivated by the desire to promote economic and social reform on the world stage. They also demonstrated the theoretical skills of Australian economists during a period in which the conceptual instruments of economic analysis came under increasing pressure. -- The purpose of this study is to document these campaigns, to analyse their theoretical and policy implications, and to relate them to current issues. Beginning with the efforts of Australian economists to persuade creditor nations to enact 'cheap money' policies in the early 1930s, the study then explores the advocacy of F.L. McDougall to reconstruct agricultural trade on the basis of nutrition. Finally, it examines the efforts of Australian economists to promote an international agreement binding the major economic powers to the pursuit of full employment. -- The main theses advanced in the dissertation are as follows: Firstly, it is argued that these campaigns are important, neglected indicators of the theoretical positions of Australian economists in the period. Hitherto, the evolution of Australian economic thought has been interpreted almost entirely on the basis of domestic policy advocacy, which gave rise to the view that Australian economists before 1939 were predominantly orthodox in theoretical outlook and policy prescriptions. However, when their international policy advocacy is included, a quite different picture emerges. Their efforts to achieve an expansion in global demand were aimed at alleviating Australia's position as a small open economy with perennial external sector problems, but until such international policies were in place, they were forced by existing circumstances to confine their domestic policy advice to orthodox, deflationary measures. -- Secondly, the campaigns make much more explicable the arrival and dissemination of the Keynesian revolution in Australian economic thought. A predilection for expansionary and proto-Keynesian policies, present within the profession for some time, provided fertile ground for the Keynesian revolution when it finally arrived. Thirdly, by supplying evidence of expansionary international policies, the study provides a corrective to the view that Australia's economic interaction with the rest of the world has largely been one of excessive defensiveness. -- Originality is claimed for the study in several areas. It provides the first comprehensive study of all three campaigns and their unifying themes. It demonstrates the importance to an adequate account of the period of the large amount of unpublished material available in Australian archives. It advances ideas and policy initiatives that have hitherto been ignored, or only partially examined, in the existing literature. And it provides a new perspective on Australian economic thought and policy in the inter-war years.
Mode of access: World Wide Web.
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Ma thèse étudie la pensée monétaire ainsi que les travaux de Ralph G. Hawtrey, Harry D. White et Robert Triffin, entre 1919 et 1960. Au cours des débats sur cette période, considérée comme fondatrice pour le système monétaire international, ces trois économistes ont été des personnalités clés qui ont influencé le cours de l’histoire monétaire. Premièrement, ils ont critiqué la théorie de l’étalon-or issue de la tradition ricardienne, en soulignant le caractère non-automatique et asymétrique du mécanisme d’ajustement de la balance des paiements. En s’articulant autour du rejet de cette tradition, les analyses de nos auteurs ont caractérisé les faiblesses liées au fonctionnement du système monétaire international. Deuxièmement, bénéficiant de leurs positions au Trésor américain et britannique, au FMI ou encore à la Fed, ces économistes ont exercé une influence sur les réformes en œuvrant pour une consolidation de la coopération monétaire internationale dans un régime de changes fixes
My PhD dissertation studies Ralph G. Hawtrey’s, Harry D. White’s and Robert Triffin’s monetary thought and works between 1919 and 1960. Actively participating to key institutions which shaped the international monetary system – the British Treasury for Hawtrey, the US Treasury for White and the Fed and the IMF in the case of Triffin – those economists influenced the course of monetary theory and history. They both wrote on the non-automatic and asymmetric nature of the balance of payments adjustment mechanism, and formulated an original critic towards the classical Ricardian gold standard theory. Structured around the rejection of this classical theory, the authors’ analysis pointed out the weaknesses of the international monetary system. Since then, all of their reform proposals were grounded on the strengthening of monetary cooperation under a fixed exchange rates system

Mestrado em Finanças
Este trabalho propõe uma reflexão sobre a génese do problema das bolhas especulativas num contexto de crescente integração dos mercados, a uma escala global. Esta abordagem compreende duas dimensões: na primeira, considera-se um regime de políticas internas e suas implicações nas estruturas de capital domésticas; na segunda, considera-se o papel desempenhado pelo sistema monetário e financeiro internacional como veículo disseminador, igualmente amplificando, para a escala internacional estas mesmas políticas domésticas. Este trabalho destaca as dinâmicas entre Economias Desenvolvidas e Economias de Mercados Emergentes recorrendo à função desempenhada pelos fluxos de capitais internacionais como veículo de transmissão das diferentes políticas monetárias. Este trabalho recorre à Teoria de Capital Austríaca para explicar o processo de criação de riqueza, e utiliza posteriormente a Teoria Austríaca do Ciclo Economico, desenvolvido por Ludwig von Mises e Friedrich A. Hayek, por forma a explicar as distorções que a manipulação monetária exerce no eficiente processo de mercado de alocação de recursos. Pelo que nos foi possível apurar, tal abordagem não foi ainda explorada sob esta perspectiva, particularmente se tivermos em consideração a ligação entre distorções monetárias internas entre as grandes Economias Desenvolvidas e as Economias Emergentes, assim como o seu impacto à escala global, sendo esta a contribuição especifica deste trabalho.
This work proposes a reflection on the genesis of the problem of asset bubbles while integrating it in the context of the globalized market. We look at the problem on two dimensions: first, through the domestic policy regimes and its implications in the domestic capital structure; second, considering the role that the international monetary and financial system performs as a vehicle disseminating to the world, and amplifying, these same domestic policy measures. In this context, the dynamics between advanced economies and emergent market economies is highlighted resorting to the role played by international capital flows as a monetary policy-disseminating vehicle. We carry this exposition based on the Austrian Capital Theory to explain how the wealth creation process should be supported by an efficient market capital structure, and then we make use of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory, as developed by Ludwig von Mises and later by Friedrich A. Hayek, to explain the distortions that the monetary manipulation exerts on the efficient market process of resource allocation. As far as we know, such an approach has not yet been explored within this perspective, particularly regarding the link of domestic monetary distortions between both, big developed and emergent economies, and their global impact, and this is the specific contribution of the present work.

In the years immediately following the so-called “refugee crisis”, Swedish municipalities that had received many refugees improved their financial position in a quite remarkable way. Overall, 2016 might have been the best financial year ever for the municipal sector. In sharp contrast to this, 2019 saw an estimated third of all municipalities run deficits. In the public debate, this has generally been explained as a result of refugee reception and integration, which are seen as major cost factors draining the municipalities of funds. Other issues which have seen less prominence in the public debate include ongoing demographic challenges stemming from birth deficits, emigration and the continued ageing of the population. These are particularly sensitive areas in the case of smaller, rural municipalities, which generally have smaller populations than the major towns and cities. The purpose of this thesis is thus to examine how municipalities within this category have experienced refugee reception and the integration process during and in the aftermath of the refugee crisis. This has been achieved through a qualitative approach centred around thematic and qualitative content analysis frameworks. Theoretical concepts based around citizenship, integration, welfare studies and macroeconomics have been consulted. The macroeconomic framework employed stems from the heterodox school of economics, primarily centred around the school of thought known as Modern Monetary Theory. The empirical material consists of various documents published by the central government, government agencies and municipalities in order to frame what has turned out to be a contradictory and conflict-ridden account of refugee reception. During the crisis, an overwhelming majority of the Swedish municipalities saw unprecedented economic growth as a result of government spending, which has since stagnated as a result of the central government returning to its pre-crisis fiscal policy framework. In 2015, the Swedish central government turned from a relatively open asylum policy towards a very restrictive one, a shift primarily motivated with reference to financial concerns. However, this turn resulted in decreased opportunities for rural municipalities to benefit from increased migration inflows, which has turned out to be a decisive factor for economic growth and demographic sustainability. The results show that municipalities that have worked actively with integration have not only managed to accommodate the sudden needs of refugees, but actively benefitted from population growth and increased tax revenue. While the ensuing result does not necessarily advocate for increased immigration, it challenges established macroeconomic principles and the presumption that a stricter migration regime would mend the financial woes of all Swedish municipalities.

Cette thèse propose une reconstruction théorique des débats monétaires de la période de la Reconstruction aux États-Unis en se focalisant sur les travaux de Henry Charles Carey, Hugh McCulloch, Simon Newcomb et John Sherman. Elle s’efforce d’identifier les liens entre les positions respectives de chacun, les politiques économiques préconisées et leurs visions du développement économique. Répondre à cette ambition implique au préalable d’expliquer pourquoi la question monétaire centrale est celle des greenbacks – le papier-monnaie inconvertible ayant cours légal émis afin de financer la guerre de Sécession – et de préciser comment la question monétaire a été le lieu privilégié d'affrontement entre des visions politiques antagonistes (chapitre 1). Les chapitres qui suivent se focalisent sur l’analyse des écrits des principaux participants aux débats. Le chapitre 2 s’intéresse à la théorie monétaire de Carey et montre comment elle vise à réunifier les États-Unis tout en établissant leur indépendance nationale à travers l’industrialisation par le maintien du système monétaire des greenbacks et du protectionnisme. Face à Carey se trouvent ceux qui favorisent un retour à la convertibilité, parmi ceux-ci McCulloch, Newcomb et Sherman. Le chapitre 3 examine la position de McCulloch et Sherman et établit que leur position dans le débat était dictée par leur vision du développement économique qui promouvait l’intégration internationale des États-Unis. Enfin, le chapitre 4 porte sur l’auteur qui constitue la référence théorique commune à ceux qui défendent le retour à la convertibilité : tant la méthodologie que la théorie monétaire de Newcomb y sont analysées
This thesis proposes a theoretical reconstruction of the monetary debate that took place during the U.S. Reconstruction period by studying the writings of Henry Charles Carey, Hugh McCulloch, Simon Newcomb, and John Sherman. It traces the links between the policy proposals of each writer, their political economy, and their vision of economic development. A prerequisite to tracing those links was a clear identification of the main money question of the period: the greenback – the fiat, legal-tender, paper money issued by the Union as a means to finance the Civil War. Also necessary was an explanation of how the monetary debate became an arena for expressing antagonistic political visions. The first chapter offers both an identification and explanation. The following chapters then analyze the writings of the main participants of the debate. Chapter 2 focuses on Carey’s monetary theory and shows that his theory led him to deduce that maintaining both a greenback monetary standard and protectionism would make it possible to build a permanent union, while establishing national independence. On the opposite side of the debate were those who advocated for a resumption of specie payments, among them McCulloch, Newcomb, and Sherman. Chapter 3 examines McCulloch and Sherman’s position in the debate and provides evidence that it was informed by their vision of economic development, a vision that aimed to promote U.S. international integration. The fourth chapter centers on Newcomb’s methodology and the monetary theory that results from its application, a theory that offers an analytical framework to those who defended the resumption of specie payments

The aim of this thesis is to enhance our understanding of Swedish marine insurers' choices of business strategies under the potentially difficult business circumstances of the interwar period 1918-1939. Little previous research exists on marine insurance during the interwar period. This is remarkable in the Swedish context since the Swedish economy has traditionally depended on its exports. The focus on Sweden is justified since the Swedish insurance market saw regulatory stability during the interwar period. It was also characterised by the coexistence of stock and mutual insurers, allowing this thesis to contribute with insights on potentially problematic insurance cartelisaton. This thesis employs a mixed methods design, including qualitative methods and regression analysis. To interpret results, this thesis employs insurance risk theory, cartel theory, theories on reinsurance and risk diversification, and agency theory. By employing this combination of theories, it is possible to explain choices and outcomes of adopted strategies both with reference to particularities of marine insurance and with reference to particularities of the two different organisational forms. The results show that the insurers conceived several new characteristics of their business environment as challenges and implemented both cartel strategies and company-specific strategies of risk diversification. Among the challenges were rapid inflation, rapidly decreasing prices and business volumes in shipping and trade, the introduction of motor ships, and the existence of naval mines on many trade routes. Also, exchange-rate fluctuations were considered to cause losses on established marine insurance contracts and rendered business results uncertain. Swedish insurers adopted cartel strategies from 1918 through The Swedish Association of Marine Underwriters (Sjöassuradörernas Förening) since they had anticipated a post-war crisis. Market division agreements were adopted for the most attractive market segments, but eventually price agreements became the primary cartel strategy, supported by prohibitions of competition. The work on price agreements sometimes increased the market efficiency since it reduced uncertainty, for instance in insurance of cargo with motor ships. Few price agreements were however adopted for the insurance of shipping since that market segment was dominated by mutual insurers, highlighting the difficulties of cartelisation in insurance markets inhabited by both stock and mutual insurers. The cartel further adopted reinsurance agreements to create barriers to entry in the Swedish marine insurance market. It however experienced prominent difficulties to implement the cartel strategies. One prominent difficulty of implementation was cheating. Also international competition created difficulties. The cartel companies therefore engaged in international cartelisation through The International Union of Marine Insurance (Internationaler Tranport-Versicherungs-Verband) from the late 1920s. This international cartel sought to reduce international competition by agreements not to compete in foreign markets. It also sought to manage the exchange-rate fluctuations of the early 1920s and the early 1930s by agreements among marine insurers, but it failed to obtain sufficient support. In spite of cartelisation, the returns on marine insurance were pushed down by the recognized challenges during the early 1920s, inflicting losses. The business however recovered and remained profitable throughout the 1930s, showing that the great depression was not as great as the deflation crisis in marine insurance. Exchange-rate fluctuations affected the international competitive strength of both stock and mutual insurers and additionally influenced the stock insurers' returns on established marine insurance contracts. The insurers were however compensated for the poor marine business results of the early 1920s by greater reliance than previously on reinsurers and by diversification among insurance lines, which rendered profits less negative than the returns on marine insurance. The business ceded to reinsurers on average inflicted losses during each of the first seven years of the 1920s. These losses were indirectly caused by World War I since that war had caused the establishment of new reinsurers in different countries, not the least in Scandinavia, and in turn caused over capacity during the 1920s. New contractual formulations evolved internationally to the benefit of ceding insurers, indicating information asymmetries. Exits became frequent among reinsurers. In effect, into the 1930s, ceding insurers internationally found it difficult to obtain obligatory reinsurance treaties. During the early 1920s, the Swedish stock marine insurers also increasingly diversified their insurance businesses among insurance lines. This process had been catalysed by World War I, was accelerated during the 1920s, and continued into the 1930s.
Syftet med denna avhandling är att förståeliggöra svenska marinförsäkringsbolags val av affärsstrategier under mellankrigstiden 1918-1939, en period som kännetecknades av potentiellt svåra affärsförhållanden. Försäkringsverksamhet är känslig för ekonomiska kriser, men har uppmärksammats mindre än bankverksamhet när det gäller mellankrigstiden. Inte minst marinförsäkring är känslig för ekonomiska kriser eftersom de försäkrade verksamheterna, sjöfart och handel, endast förekommer i den mån som transporterade varor efterfrågas. Tidigare forskning har endast i liten omfattning fokuserat på marinförsäkring, vilket ur ett svenskt perspektiv kan tyckas anmärkningsvärt med tanke på att den svenska ekonomin har i hög grad varit beroende av sjöburen handel. En studie av svensk marinförsäkring är motiverad ur ett internationellt perspektiv eftersom den svenska försäkringslagstiftningen förblev i stort sett oförändrad under perioden, vilket gör det rimligt att tolka marinförsäkringsbolags val av affärsstrategier som svar på ekonomiska omständigheter. Under mellankrigstiden var katellstrategier ett vanligt svar på svåra affärsförhållanden i olika verksamheter, men kartellisering var potentiellt problematisk i marinförsäkring eftersom den verksamheten är internationell och eftersom marinförsäkring är en heterogen produkt. Dessutom befolkades den svenska försäkringsmarknaden av både aktiebolag och ömsesidiga bolag, vilket är ett ytterligare potentiellt hinder för kartellisering. Studier av kartellisering under potentiallt svåra förutsättningar kan bidra med insikter om under vilka förutsättningar karteller uppstår, vilket ytterligare motiverar studien. Denna avhandling analyserar även två företagsspecifika riskdiversifieringsstrategier, som potentiellt kan kompensera för låg avkastning på mottagen försäkring, nämligen återförsäkring och diversifiering mellan försäkringsgrenar. Återförsäkring har av tidigare forskning framhållits som ett underutforskat område. Avhandlingen tillämpar både kvalitativa och kvantitativa undersökningsmetoder. För att uttolka de empiriska resultaten tillämpas riskteori för försäkring, kartellteori, återförsäkringsteori, riskdiversifieringsteori, samt incitamentsteori på företagsnivå (agency theory). Denna kombination av teorier gör det möjligt att förklara strategival med utgångspunkt både i marinförsäkringens karaktäristika och i de båda olika organisationsformers karaktäristika. Resultaten visar att försäkringsbolagen noterade ett antal nya affärsförhållanden som utmaningar och att dessa bolag implementerade både kartellstrategier och företagsspecifika riskdiversifieringsstrategier. Bland de noterade utmaningarna märks snabb inflation, snabbt fallande priser och affärsvolymer i sjöfart och handel, införandet av motorfartyg, samt sjöminor på många fartygsrutter. Försäkringsbolagen behärskade endast lite erfarenhet av risker associerade med motorfartyg och sjöminor, vilket gjorde riskbedömningar osäkra. Även växelkursfluktuationer uppfattades som utmaningar eftersom de orsakade förluster på etablerade marinförsäkringskontrakt och skapade problem att förutsäga affärsresultaten. Från 1918 antog svenska marinförsäkringsbolag kartellstrategier genom branschorganisationen Sjöassuradörernas Förening, detta eftersom de förväntade sig en efterkrigskris. Marknadsuppdelningsavtal infördes i attraktiva marknadssegment, men med tiden blev prisöverenskommelser den främsta kartellstrategin, understödd av avtal som förbjöd konkurrens. Arbetet med prisöverenskommelser ökade marknadseffektiviteten i vissa marknadssegment, detta genom att reducera osäkerheten i riskbedömningarna. Ett tydligt exempel på ett sådant marknadssegment är försäkring av varor transporterade med motorfartyg. Kartellen etablerade däremot få prisöverenskommelser för försäkring av sjöfart eftersom detta marknadssegment dominerades av ömsesidiga försäkringsbolag. Denna kontrast mellan varuförsäkring och sjöfartsförsäkring belyser svårigheterna med att kartellisera en försäkringsmarknad som befolkas både av aktiebolag och av ömsesidiga bolag. Kartellen antog också återförsäkringsavtal i syfte att skapa etableringshinder på den svenska försäkringsmarknaden. Den upplevde emellertid svårigheter att implementera överenskommelserna, såsom brott mot prisöverenskommelserna och mot konkurrensförbuden. Ytterligare svårigheter skapades av internationell konkurrens. Från slutet av 1920-talet deltog därför kartellbolagen i den internationella marinförsäkringskartellen Internationaler Tranport-Versicherungs-Verband (senare benämnd The International Union of Marine Insurance). Medlemsbolagen i denna internationella kartell skapade överenskommelser med innebörden att utländska försäkringstagare inte skulle erbjudas försäkring. Dessa överenskommelser syftade till att reducera den internationella konkurrensen. Denna kartell försökte också reducera effekterna för marinförsäkringsbolag av växelkursfluktuationer genom överenskommelser om hur växelkurser skulle beräknas i marinförsäkringsfrågor. Sådana försök gjordes både under de första åren av 1920-talet och under de första åren av 1930-talet. Det avsedda resultatet kunde emellertid inte nås, detta eftersom uppslutningen förblev otillräcklig. Trots kartelliseringen reducerades avkastningen på marinförsäkring till förlustnivåer under det tidiga 1920-talet. Avkastningen förbättrades sedan stegvis och förblev positiv under 1930-talet. I marinförsäkring var alltså den stora depression inte lika stor som deflationskrisen. Växelkursfluktuationer påverkade både aktiebolags och ömsesidiga bolags internationella konkurrenskraft. Dessutom påverkade växelkurserna aktiebolagens avkastning på etablerade marinförsäkringskontrakt. Försäkringsbolagen kompenserades för 1920-talets förlustresultat i marinförsäkring genom ökad cedering av risk till återförsäkringsbolag och genom diversifiering av de mottagna riskerna mellan olika försäkringsgrenar. Under 1920-talet var bolagens vinster därför mindre negativa än resultaten i marinförsäkring. Den affär som cederades till återförsäkringsbolag var i genomsnitt förlustbringande under vart och ett av 1920-talets första sju år. Dessa förluster orsakades indirekt av första världskriget, eftersom det kriget stimulerade etablering av nya återförsäkringsbolag, detta i olika länder och inte minst i Skandinavien. I förlängningen skapade första världskriget därmed överkapacitet på återförsäkringsmarknaden. Nya kontraktsformuleringar introducerades internationellt till de cederande bolagens fördel. Detta förhållande indikerar informationsasymmetrier i relationen mellan cederande och mottagande försäkringsbolag. Många återförsäkringsbolag lämnade marknaden. Resultatet blev att cederande bolag under början av 1930-talet i olika länder fick svårigheter att sluta obligatoriska återförsäkringsavtal. Under början av 1920-talet diversifierade aktiebolagen också sin verksamhet mellan olika försäkringsgrenar. Denna process katalyserades av första världskriget, accelererade under början av 1920-talet och fortsatte in på 1930-talet.

Dissertation in political science, D-level by Niklas Andersson, Spring Semester 2010. Tutor: Malin Stegmann McCallion

“Societies in Crisis – When Washington Take Over”

An economic meltdown wreaks havoc on the world and has plunged the Western world into a spiral of economic stimulus in order to keep their way of life intact. At the same time the same institutions that support these countries have had another agenda for more unfortunate and less influential countries where nothing has been free and everything been to a price of self-sacrifice in order to get the consent of the IMF and the World Bank. Everything according to the points stated in the so called Washington Consensus.

The purpose of this dissertation is to research what impact the Washington Consensus has on the state in terms of power over the market and sovereignty. This shall be done by examining the points of the Consensus and then delve into the IMF and World Bank’s own program in four countries, Argentina, Russia, Kenya and the Republic of Korea. The findings shall then be compared to the Andersson Contract, a social contract theory summary showcasing the ideal liberal state, to determine if the Consensus gives enough room for the state to act against the market. This shall also be backed up with theories on economics from Adam Smith and Karl Polanyi in order to strengthen the comparison on the economic issues.

The research question thus for the dissertation are:

Which institutions and features does the Washington Consensus highlight as necessary for a state? Is the state they proposes to weak to uphold society according to the social contracts?

According to the research there are parts of the Washington Consensus that fits the social contract and should therefore in theory be able to maintain a level of social dignity and be able to take part in the positive effects of the market. Other parts on the other hand show that some crucial institutions lack certain strength in order to be able to keep the free market in check, but they still exist. Therefore the answer to the question is that it’s ambiguous as all the necessary institutions exist, but some of them need to be strengthened in order to make sure the market remains free as well as the countries should be able to choose their own way to economic welfare.

Statsvetenskaplig uppsats, D-nivå av Niklas Andersson, Vårterminen 2010, Handledare Malin Stegmann McCallion

"Samhällen i Kris - När Washington Tar Över"

En ekonomisk härdsmälta skapar kaos runt om i världen och har kastat ner västvärlden i en spiral av ekonomiska stimulanser för att hålla deras livsstil flytande. Santidigt som detta sker har samma institutioner vilka gett första hjälpen till dessa länder har de haft en annan agenda för mer otursamma och mindre inflytelserika länder där ingenting har varit gratis och allt varit till priset av självuppoffring för att få IMF och Världsbankens samtycke. Allt utifrån punkterna fastlagda av Washington-konsensusen.

Syftet med uppsatsen är att undersöka vilken inverkan Washington-konsensusen har på staten i betydelsen makt över marknaden och suveränitet. Detta skall genomföras genom att undersöka punkterna i konsensusen och sen dyka ner i IMF och Världsbanknens egna program i fyra länder, Argentina, Ryssland, Kenya och Sydkorea. Det jag finner ska sedan jämföras med Andeersson-kontraktet, en kontraktsteori sammanfattning av den ideala liberala staten, för att utröna om konsensusen ger tillräckligt utrymmer för staten att agera mot marknaden. Detta ska också stödjas med teorier om ekonomi av Adam Smith och Karl Polanyi för att styrka jämförelsen på de ekonomiska delarna.

Frågeställningarna för uppsatsen är då följande:

Vilka institutioner och funktioner uppmärksammar Washongton-konsensusen som nödvändiga för staten? Är staten de framhäver för svag för att upprätthålla samhället enligt kontraktteorierna?

Enligt forskningen är det ett par delar av Washington-konsensusen som passar in i kontraktsteorin och borde därför i teorin möjliggöra en viss nivå av social värdighet och hantering av effekterna utav marknaden. Andra delar däremot visar att några viktiga institutioner saknar tillräckligt med styrka för att fullt ut kunna hålla marknaden i schack, men de existerar fortfarande. Därför är svaret till frågorna att det är tvetydigt eftersom alla g´rundelement finns där, men några av dem behöver förstärkas för att försäkra att marknaderna förblir fria samtidigt som länderna själva väljer deras  väg till ekonomiskt välstånd.

En esta tesis estudio varias cuestiones de política monetaria y fiscal usando modelos de equilibrio generales completamente micro-fundados. El primer capítulo de esta tesis trata la cuestión de cómo la políticas monetarias y fiscales se deben conducir en una unión monetaria donde hay un solo banco central que fija el tipo de interés común mientras que el gobierno todavía conserva independencia completa en las decisiones de políticas fiscales. En el segundo capítulo se dedica a estudiar si es posible racionalizar en un modelo keynesiano completamente micro-fundado la existencia de una unión monetaria. El último capítulo investiga en qué medida el incentivo de las autoridades de política económica en una economía abierta de mejorar los términos de intercambio en su favor se puede compensar por la externalidad de relocalización de la producción (home market effect).
In this thesis I study different kinds of monetary and fiscal policy issues by using fully microfounded general equilibrium models. The first chapter addresses the question of how monetary and fiscal policy should be conducted in a monetary union where there is a single central bank that sets the common interest rate while governments still retain full independence in fiscal policy decisions. The second chapter is devoted to study whether it is possible to rationalize, within a fully microfounded New Keynesian framework, the existence of a monetary union. The last chapter investigates to what extent the incentive of open economy policy makers to improve the terms of trade in their favour can be outweighed by the production relocation externality (the so called home market effect).

This dissertation consists of a model of the monetary policy process, and an application of the model to the post-World War I financial and macroeconomic policy system. Orthodox money multiplier models mis-specify the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy. An alternative model is constructed from the micro-foundations of the credit supply process. The model locates the transmission channel of monetary policy in the impact of policy initiatives on the expectations of portfolio holders in the financial markets. If monetary policy initiatives have a negligible impact on expectations, they will not have a significant impact on the course of real economic activity in a capitalist economy with sophisticated financial markets and more than nominal business cycles. The expectations formation process is analyzed to derive the institutional configuration and policy stance that contribute to a tight connection between monetary policy initiatives and the expected profitability of credit creation. The analysis concludes that monetary policy, while potentially powerful, is an inherently unstable platform for macroeconomic control. The monetary authority's control of expectations can fluctuate dramatically in a short space of time. If the monetary authority is viewed as technically weak vis a vis market forces or politically vulnerable to competing macroeconomic policy centers, it will face rapid and severe declines in monetary policy effectiveness. The motivation for the construction of the postwar financial order was a great fear by the elites of the social and political consequences of modest amounts of inflation. The central bank was elevated to the status of a macroecomonic planner, and given the task of keeping the economy inflation free, and provided with a monopoly on macroeconomic policy. An asymmetrical, pro-cyclical policy stance promised to cap booms and promote "liquidations," that is, to enforce a severe recession following an expansion. Robust central bank independence protected unpopular policies. The system was effective, but chronically inflexible, being deliberately designed to be inhospitable to expansionary policy, and incapable of conforming to policy pressures from the electorate. During 1929 - 1933 the system worked as design, and paralyzed expansionary macroeconomic policy initiatives. The disastrous results discredited the system and its supporters.

This study aims to verify the impacts of financial crises in the capital structure for Portuguese companies. The purpose is to study different firm-specific determinants of a sample of general PSI Portuguese listed firms at the Euronext Lisbon stock exchange, during the recent crises that endured from 2011 until 2013 and test the impacts on short and long-term debt. In order to test the changes/impacts on Portuguese firms’ capital structure, the most important theories around capital structure decisions, Modigliani & Miller, Trade-off, Pecking Order and the Agency theory, will be presented. Among the many determinants that are considered to influence capital structure decisions, size, profitability, tangibility, growth, liquidity and non-debt tax shield, were chosen to test their impacts on Portuguese company. The sample used considers the period from 2005 to 2015 for 33 Portuguese listed firms. A regression analysis will be used to infer about the effects on long-term and short-term debt when the determinants change. Results obtained support both trade-off and pecking order theories. Short-term debt ratios reported a tendency of increase during the financial crisis while long-term debt registered a decrease.
Este estudo visa verificar quais os impactos das crises financeiras na estrutura de capital das empresas portuguesas. Tem como objetivo estudar determinantes específicas da estrutura de capital das empresas portuguesas do PSI geral cotadas em bolsa, durante o período da recente crise financeira, que durou desde 2011 até 2013. Por forma a testar as mudanças/impactos na estrutura de capital das empresas portuguesas, algumas das principais teorias à volta do tema da decisão da estrutura de capital, tais como, "Modigliani & Miller", "Trade-off", "Pecking Order" e "Agency Theory", vão ser apresentadas. De entre as muitas variáveis que são consideradas como afetadoras da estrutura de capital de uma empresa, tamanho, lucrabilidade, tangibilidade dos ativos, crescimento, liquidez e o escudo fiscal da não dívida, foram selecionados para testar os seus impactos nas empresas portuguesas. A amostra de tempo considerada reuniu informação do período de 2005 até 2015 para 33 das empresas portuguesas cotadas em bolsa. Foi utilizada a regressão linear para testar os impactos que as alterações nas determinantes consideradas como variáveis dependentes têm nas dívidas de curto e longo prazos. Os resultados obtidos suportam tanto a teoria de "Trade-off" e "Pecking Order". Os rácios para a dívida de curto prazo aumentaram durante o período da crise financeira enquanto o rácio da dívida de longo prazo diminuiu.

While decision-making under uncertainty is a major universal problem, its implications in the field of transportation systems are especially enormous; where the benefits of right decisions are tremendous, the consequences of wrong ones are potentially disastrous. In the realm of highway systems, decisions related to the highway configuration (number of lanes, right of way, etc.) need to incorporate both the traffic demand and land price uncertainties. In the literature, these uncertainties have generally been modeled using the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) process, which has been used extensively in modeling many other real life phenomena. But few scholars, including those who used the GBM in highway configuration decisions, have offered any rigorous justification for the use of this model. This thesis attempts to offer a detailed analysis of various aspects of transportation systems in relation to decision-making. It reveals some general insights as well as a new concept that extends the notion of opportunity cost to situations where wrong decisions could be made. Claiming deficiency of the GBM model, it also introduces a new formulation that utilizes a large and flexible parametric family of jump models (i.e., Lévy processes). To validate this claim, data related to traffic demand and land prices were collected and analyzed to reveal that their distributions, heavy-tailed and asymmetric, do not match well with the GBM model. As a remedy, this research used the Merton, Kou, and negative inverse Gaussian Lévy processes as possible alternatives. Though the results show indifference in relation to final decisions among the models, mathematically, they improve the precision of uncertainty models and the decision-making process. This furthers the quest for optimality in highway projects and beyond.