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Статті в журналах з теми "International diffusion of shocks"

Автор: Grafiati

Опубліковано: 11 березня 2023

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1

Houle, Christian, Mark A. Kayser, and Jun Xiang. "Diffusion or Confusion? Clustered Shocks and the Conditional Diffusion of Democracy." International Organization 70, no. 4 (2016): 687–726. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s002081831600028x.

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AbstractScholars, observing clustering in transitions to democracy, argue that democratization diffuses across borders as citizens in autocracies demand the same reforms they witness in neighboring states. We disagree. This article demonstrates that diffusion plays only a highly conditional role in democratization. We advance and test an alternative two-step theory of clustered democratization: (1) economic and international political shocks, which are clustered spatially and temporally, induce the breakdown of authoritarian regimes; then (2) democratic diffusion, in turn, influences whether a fallen dictatorship will be replaced by a democracy or a new autocracy. Diffusion, despite playing an important role, is insufficient to explain the clustering of transitions. Using data on 125 autocracies from 1875 to 2004, we show that economic crises trigger authoritarian breakdowns, while diffusion influences whether the new regime is democratic or authoritarian.

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2

Musacchio, Aldo, André Martínez Fritscher, and Martina Viarengo. "Colonial Institutions, Trade Shocks, and the Diffusion of Elementary Education in Brazil, 1889–1930." Journal of Economic History 74, no. 3 (August 29, 2014): 730–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0022050714000588.

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We study the initial expansion of public schooling across Brazilian states (1889–1930) and develop an alternative explanation of how colonial institutions may affect the provision of public goods in the long run. We find that states that exported commodities undergoing international booms, between 1889 and 1930, had significantly larger export tax revenues and could spend more on education, while other states lagged behind. Yet, such positive effect of commodity booms on education expenditures was muted in states that either had more slaves before abolition or cultivated cotton during colonial times.

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3

Miller, Michael K., Michael Joseph, and Dorothy Ohl. "Are Coups Really Contagious? An Extreme Bounds Analysis of Political Diffusion." Journal of Conflict Resolution 62, no. 2 (May 26, 2016): 410–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002716649232.

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Protests and democratic transitions tend to spread cross-nationally. Is this true of all political events? We argue that the mechanisms underlying the diffusion of mass-participation events are unlikely to support the spread of elite-led violence, particularly coups. Further, past findings of coup contagion employed empirical techniques unable to distinguish clustering, common shocks, and actual diffusion. To investigate which events diffuse and where, we combine modern spatial dependence models with extreme bounds analysis (EBA). EBA allows for numerous modeling alternatives, including diffusion timing and the controls, and calculates the distribution of estimates across all combinations of these choices. We also examine various diffusion pathways, such as contagion among trade partners. Results from nearly 1.2 million models clearly undercut coup contagion. In comparison, we confirm that more mass-driven political events robustly spread cross-nationally. Our findings contribute to studies of political conflict and contagion, while introducing EBA as an effective tool for diffusion scholars.

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4

Houle, Christian, and Mark A. Kayser. "The Two-step Model of Clustered Democratization." Journal of Conflict Resolution 63, no. 10 (September 12, 2019): 2421–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002719875565.

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Does democratization diffuse? For over two decades, numerous studies have asserted that democratization diffuses across countries but recent research has challenged this claim. Most recently, work by Brancati and Lucardi has buttressed this null finding by demonstrating that an oft assumed mechanism for the diffusion of democratization—the diffusion of pro-democracy protests—lacks empirical support. We review this contribution in the context of recent research and pose the question: if democratization does not diffuse, then why does democratization cluster in time and space? The answer, we argue, is that democratization occurs in two steps. First, common shocks, economic or political, lead to regime collapse. Then, diffusion does emerge in a second step: new elites are more likely to install a democracy following a regime collapse if neighboring countries have recently democratized. We present evidence from democratic transitions in 125 autocracies between 1875 and 2014.

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5

Aturin, Valery, Irina Moga, and Samal Smagulova. "Digital transformation management: Scientific approaches and economic policy." Upravlenets 11, no. 2 (April 28, 2020): 67–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.29141/2218-5003-2020-11-2-6.

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The article explores the problems and trends in digital transformation of the world economy in the context of revolutionary changes in the technological sphere, unstable state of a number of national economies and international trade. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study includes the traditional ideas about technological advances and their impact on global reproduction, as well as the conceptual framework of digital economy. The authors follow the research methods, such as comparative analysis, synthesis, historical and logical methods. The research identifies the evaluation parameters of digital transformation, including the assessment of broadband internet access, the potential of reducing the cost price of digital devices and the marginal cost of traditional industries, and the assessment of the convergence and the speed of technology diffusion. The authors find that the key characteristics of new economic policy are flexibility and detailed specification to fine-tune the combination of tools depending on the object of management. Having analyzed the avenues for digital transformation, we establish the areas of high uncertainty – job market, data control, security, the environment, etc. – that act as potential sources of shocks. Our findings also prove the necessity to create conditions for the growth of technology-centric companies.

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6

Kwon, Kisung, Taeyeon Oh, Jihyun Lee, and Jeehyun Kang. "Analysis of Entrepreneurial Process Based on Domestic Introduction of Sport Contents: Focusing on the Innovation Diffusion Process Model." Korean Journal of Sport Science 32, no. 2 (June 30, 2021): 181–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.24985/kjss.2021.32.2.181.

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Purpose A number of start-ups in the form of introducing sports contents in Korea as a new market are in progress, and appropriate support for each step is needed to increase the chances of a success. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to explore the entrepreneurial process of introducing and spreading newly created or developed sports content into a new market, Korea, by focusing on the innovation diffusion process model. Methods To derive the results, a qualitative research method was used, data were collected through in-depth interviews, literature search, and observation methods, and analyzed through categorization and itemization in stages based on content analysis results. Results Looking at the results, content recognition and problem identification were derived in the exogenous shocks stage, and the organization unity of internal and external stakeholder was confirmed in the formal coalition of opinion leaders stage. At the stage of internal communication between the opinion leaders of the social system, the expert communication in the same or similar field and external area appeared and the indirect experience also derived. In the decision to select a specific innovation stage, activities to belong to an international organization, to establish a new organization, and to secure idle space appeared, and at the stage of recruitment and/or the establishment of boundary spanners, efforts to secure internal and external human resource within the organization and to build an organization form appeared. In the stage of develop and introduce the innovation, online communication channels were established. In the stage of using mass media outlets, media articles, lectures, and academic conferences were used, and in the stage of actual diffusion of an innovation, experience and education programs were conducted, competition and exhibitions were held, venues were built, and actual international competitions were participated. At the stage of decisions to continue, discontinue, or re-invent the existing innovation must occur, evaluation was made by personnel inside and outside the organization. Conclusions It is possible to increase the success of start-up by creating a support system that can fill the necessary parts for each stage of start-up based on the derived activities for each stage.

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7

Gray, David. "An international housing market in the British Isles: Evidence from business and medium-term cycles using a Friedman test." Urban Studies 57, no. 2 (May 14, 2019): 307–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0042098019839886.

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It has been averred that there is an international market in housing (inter alia, Adams Z and Füss R (2010) Macroeconomic determinants of international housing markets. Journal of Housing Economics 19(1): 38–50; Helbling T and Terrones M (2003) When Bubbles Burst – Chapter II, World Economic Outlook. April. Washington, DC: IMF; Pomogajko K and Voigtländer M (2012) Co-movement of house price cycles – A factor analysis. International Journal of Housing Markets & Analysis 5(4): 414–427). Although some authors examine the business cycle range, the mechanism by which this comes about is more likely to reflect financial market integration and evidence for this should be found in the medium-term cycle range. As a case study, there is an analysis of three associated ‘regional’ housing markets and their price movements. Northern Ireland’s economy is distinct but should be linked to the rest of the UK by common policy shocks, and to Eire through a mutual border. Using a Friedman test, it is found that even this small cluster is not integrated. It is asserted that a housing cycle has both a financial and a business component. As Drehmann et al. (Drehmann M, Borio C and Tstasaronis K (2012) Characterising the financial cycle: Don’t lose sight of the medium term! BIS Working Papers, No. 380, Bank for International Settlements, June) argue, cycles in the medium-term range are significant in housing. A dual component approach highlights the relevance of cyclical interaction for both revealing integration and the need to intervene to moderate cyclical reinforcement for crisis-avoidance. After 1995, Dublin and London are found to be more integrated than before, which is consistent with the international city integration thesis of Holly et al. (Holly S, Pesaran H and Yamagata T (2011) The spatio-temporal diffusion of house prices in the UK. Journal of Urban Economics 69(1): 2–23). Lastly, a simple test for cyclical asymmetry indicates that there is highness (the obverse of deepness, where the troughs are deeper than peaks) in the UK financial cycle.

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8

Witelski, T. P. "Shocks in nonlinear diffusion." Applied Mathematics Letters 8, no. 5 (September 1995): 27–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0893-9659(95)00062-u.

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9

Kim, Soyoung, and Jaewoo Lee. "INTERNATIONAL MACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS." Macroeconomic Dynamics 19, no. 7 (May 16, 2014): 1509–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100513000916.

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This paper investigates the international dimension of economic fluctuations and transmission of structural shocks by estimating a structural VAR model for the United States, the euro area, and Japan—the three largest economies—over the post-Bretton Woods period. The main findings are as follows: (1) Supply-side shocks (technology and supply-level shocks) explain most of the fluctuations in cross-country output deviations. (2) Real-demand shocks are the most important source of real-exchange-rate fluctuations. (3) Current account is usually influenced by all types of shocks, with technology shocks playing a stronger role. In particular, technology shocks play a prominent role in the existing global imbalance (the large external deficit of the United States). (4) Technology and supply-level shocks generate opposite-signed correlations between output differential and current account, whereas real and nominal-demand shocks generate opposite-signed correlations between real exchange rate and current account.

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10

Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, Andrea Ferrero, and Alessandro Rebucci. "International credit supply shocks." Journal of International Economics 112 (May 2018): 219–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.11.006.

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11

Arabsalmani, M., and A. Aghamohammadi. "Multi-shocks in reaction-diffusion models." European Physical Journal B 55, no. 4 (February 2007): 439–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjb/e2007-00069-7.

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12

Frankel, Jeffrey. "Economic Shocks and International Politics." Survival 54, no. 3 (May 18, 2012): 29–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2012.690977.

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13

Duffy, Peter. "Bohm diffusion and cosmic-ray-modified shocks." Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series 90 (February 1994): 981. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/191936.

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14

Fukuda, Kosei. "Identifying uncertainty shocks using world diffusion index." Applied Economics 52, no. 15 (October 23, 2019): 1718–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2019.1677853.

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15

Duffy, Peter. "Bohm Diffusion and Cosmic-Ray-Modified Shocks." International Astronomical Union Colloquium 142 (1994): 981–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0252921100078428.

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AbstractA numerical solution to the problem of self-consistent diffusive shock acceleration is presented. The cosmic rays are scattered, accelerated and exert a back-reaction on the gas through their interaction with turbulence frozen into the local fluid frame. Using a grid with a hierarchical spacetime structure the physically interesting limit of Bohm diffusion (к ∝ pv), which introduces a wide range of diffusion lengthscales and acceleration timescales, can be studied. Some implications for modified shocks and particle acceleration are presented.Subject headings: acceleration of particles — cosmic rays — diffusion — shock waves

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16

Jeffries, Clark. "Travelling waves and shocks with pressure diffusion." Applied Mathematics Letters 1, no. 2 (1988): 113–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0893-9659(88)90053-5.

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17

Hirata, Hideaki. "Preference shocks, international frictions, and international business cycles." Journal of Asian Economics 34 (October 2014): 92–104. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2014.07.002.

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18

Kwark, Noh-Sun. "Sources of international business fluctuations: Country-specific shocks or worldwide shocks?" Journal of International Economics 48, no. 2 (August 1999): 367–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0022-1996(98)00050-6.

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19

Freeman, Mark. "Asset pricing with jump/diffusion permanent income shocks." Economics Letters 77, no. 1 (September 2002): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0165-1765(02)00116-7.

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20

Cox, Robert W. "Shocks in a Model for Stress-Driven Diffusion." SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics 50, no. 5 (October 1990): 1284–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1137/0150077.

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21

Ilori, Ayobami E., Juan Paez-Farrell, and Christoph Thoenissen. "Fiscal policy shocks and international spillovers." European Economic Review 141 (January 2022): 103969. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103969.

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22

Jones, Callum, Mariano Kulish, and Daniel Rees. "International Spillovers of Forward Guidance Shocks." IMF Working Papers 18, no. 114 (2018): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353554.001.

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23

Brei, Michael, and Almira Buzaushina. "International financial shocks in emerging markets." Journal of International Money and Finance 58 (November 2015): 51–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.07.012.

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24

Rouillard, Jean-François. "International risk sharing and financial shocks." Journal of International Money and Finance 82 (April 2018): 26–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.12.005.

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25

Navarro, Peter. "Electricity price shocks and international trade." Japan and the World Economy 2, no. 3 (September 1990): 249–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0922-1425(90)90004-c.

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26

Ersal-Kiziler, Eylem. "International portfolio flows with growth shocks." Economics Letters 141 (April 2016): 84–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2016.02.008.

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27

McKibbin, Warwick J., and Kang Yong Tan. "Learning and international transmission of shocks." Economic Modelling 26, no. 5 (September 2009): 1033–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2009.04.001.

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28

Kim, Don H., and Marcelo Ochoa. "International Yield Spillovers." Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021, no. 001 (January 11, 2021): 1–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/feds.2021.001.

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This paper investigates spillovers from foreign economies to the U.S. through changes in longterm Treasury yields. We document a decline in the contribution of U.S. domestic news to the variance of long-term Treasury yields and an increased importance of overnight yield changes—a rough proxy for the contribution of foreign shocks to U.S. yields—over the past decades. Using a model that identifies U.S., Euro area, and U.K. shocks that move global yields, we estimate that foreign (non-U.S.) shocks account for at least 20 percent of the daily variation in long-term U.S. yields in recent years. We argue that spillovers occur in large part through bond term premia by showing that a low level of foreign yields relative to U.S. yields predicts a decline in distant forward U.S. yields and higher returns on a strategy that is long on a long-term Treasury security and short on a long-term foreign bond.

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29

Marfatia, Hardik A., Rangan Gupta, and Keagile Lesame. "Dynamic Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy on International REITs." Journal of Risk and Financial Management 14, no. 9 (September 8, 2021): 429. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14090429.

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In this paper, we estimate the dynamic impact of unconventional monetary policy in the US on international REITs. Unlike existing studies which are limited to conventional policy tools and undertake a static approach, we use an event study approach and estimate a time-varying parameter model to investigate the dynamic impact of forward guidance (FG) and large-scale asset purchases (LSAP) shocks on the international REIT returns. We also compare the effects of these unconventional tools with the effects of conventional federal funds rate (FFR) shocks. The results show that the response of international REITs to unconventional policy shocks depends on the time under consideration. FG shocks have greater time-variation in the impact on REIT returns compared to LSAP shocks, particularly with Australia, Belgium, and the US REIT markets. Furthermore, FG shocks broadly have a negative impact on REITs while the results for LSAP effects are mixed. We also find that in most countries, REITs time-varying response of FG shocks is related to changes in gold prices and financial conditions.

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30

Coniglio, Nicola D., and Giovanni Pesce. "Climate variability and international migration: an empirical analysis." Environment and Development Economics 20, no. 4 (January 13, 2015): 434–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1355770x14000722.

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AbstractIs international migration an adaptation strategy to sudden or gradual climatic shocks? In this paper we investigate the direct and the indirect role of climatic shocks in developing countries as a determinant of out-migration flows toward rich OECD countries in the period 1990–2001. Contrarily to the bulk of existing studies, we use a macro approach and explicitly consider the heterogeneity of climatic shocks (type, size, sign of shocks and seasonal effects). Our results show that the occurrence of adverse climatic events in origin countries has significative direct and indirect effects on out-migration from poor to rich countries.

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31

Cravino, Javier, and Andrei A. Levchenko. "Multinational Firms and International Business Cycle Transmission*." Quarterly Journal of Economics 132, no. 2 (November 15, 2016): 921–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw043.

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Abstract We investigate how multinational firms contribute to the transmission of shocks across countries using a large multicountry firm-level data set that contains cross-border ownership information. We use these data to document two novel empirical patterns. First, foreign affiliate and headquarter sales exhibit strong positive comovement: a 10% growth in the sales of the headquarter is associated with a 2% growth in the sales of the affiliate. Second, shocks to the source country account for a significant fraction of the variation in sales growth at the source-destination level. We propose a parsimonious quantitative model to interpret these findings and to evaluate the role of multinational firms for international business cycle transmission. For the typical country, the impact of foreign shocks transmitted by all foreign multinationals combined is non-negligible, accounting for about 10% of aggregate productivity shocks. On the other hand, since bilateral multinational production shares are small, interdependence between most individual country pairs is minimal. Our results do reveal substantial heterogeneity in the strength of this mechanism, with the most integrated countries significantly more affected by foreign shocks.

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32

Letendre, Marc-André, and Joel Wagner. "AGENCY COSTS, RISK SHOCKS, AND INTERNATIONAL CYCLES." Macroeconomic Dynamics 22, no. 5 (July 4, 2017): 1134–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100516000614.

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We add agency costs into a two-country, two-good international business-cycle model. In our model, changes in the relative price of investment arise endogenously. Despite the fact that technology shocks are uncorrelated across countries, the relative price of investment is positively correlated across countries in our model, much as it is in detrended U.S./Euro-area data. We also find that financial frictions tend to increase the volatility of the terms of trade and the international correlations of consumption, hours worked, output, and investment. We then compare this model to an alternative model that also includes risk shocks. We use credit spread data (for the United States) to calibrate the AR(1) process for risk shocks. We find that risk shocks are too small to significantly impact the model's dynamics.

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33

Zehri, Chokri. "Effectiveness of capital controls in dampening international shocks." Review of Keynesian Economics 9, no. 4 (October 28, 2021): 521–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.4337/roke.2021.04.05.

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This study is a contribution to the ongoing debate on whether capital controls are effective in buffering international shocks and reducing capital flows volatility. The author demonstrates that capital controls can considerably mitigate the effects of monetary and exchange rate shocks and reduce the volatility of capital inflows to emerging markets. This study analyses quarterly data of 28 emerging economies over the period between 2000 and 2015 and proposes two methods to identify capital controls actions. Using panel analysis, autoregressive distributed lag, and local projections approaches, this study finds that tighter capital controls may diminish monetary and exchange rate shocks and reduce capital inflows volatility. Furthermore, capital controls respond anti-cyclically to monetary shocks. Under capital controls, countries with floating exchange rate regimes have more potential to buffer monetary shocks. The author also finds that capital controls on inflows are more effective for reducing the volatility of capital flows compared to capital controls on outflows.

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34

Garcia, Denise. "Shifting International Security Norms." Ethics & International Affairs 31, no. 2 (2017): 235–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0892679417000090.

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The world is going through a crisis of the international liberal order, exemplified by a host of recent shocks: the invasion and annexation of Crimea by Russia; the transnational dimensions of conflicts such as in Syria; the United Kingdom's decision to exit the European Union; the attempted coup d’état in Turkey and its reversal toward autocracy; and the election and rise of non-universalist and illiberal governments as well as politicians who operate under the populist rubric in countries that are viewed as beacons of democracy and stability. These shocks have catalyzed two outcomes. First, the prevailing global norms that serve as the custodians of peace and security have been the subject of revived debate. Second, and relatedly, these shocks have prompted deep reflection on the role of institutions such as the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), as well as the roles of the supposedly democratic members within those institutions.

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35

Dmitriev, A. P., V. A. Rozhanskii, and L. D. Tsendin. "Diffusion shocks in an inhomogeneous current-carrying collisional plasma." Uspekhi Fizicheskih Nauk 146, no. 6 (1985): 237. http://dx.doi.org/10.3367/ufnr.0146.198506b.0237.

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Berestycki, Henri, Jean-Pierre Nadal, and Nancy Rodíguez. "A model of riots dynamics: Shocks, diffusion and thresholds." Networks & Heterogeneous Media 10, no. 3 (2015): 443–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.3934/nhm.2015.10.443.

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Wechselberger, M., and G. J. Pettet. "Folds, canards and shocks in advection–reaction–diffusion models." Nonlinearity 23, no. 8 (July 12, 2010): 1949–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/0951-7715/23/8/008.

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38

Dmitriev, A. P., V. A. Rozhanskiĭ, and L. D. Tsendin. "Diffusion shocks in an inhomogeneous current-carrying collisional plasma." Soviet Physics Uspekhi 28, no. 6 (June 30, 1985): 467–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1070/pu1985v028n06abeh005202.

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39

Kallenbach, R., K. Bamert, M. Hilchenbach, and B. Klecker. "Probing diffusion parameters of suprathermal ions near heliospheric shocks." Advances in Space Research 34, no. 1 (January 2004): 157–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2003.03.067.

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40

Kireyev, Alexei, and Andrei Leonidov. "Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers." IMF Working Papers 15, no. 149 (2015): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513542928.001.

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41

Dungey, Mardi, and Renée Fry. "International Shocks on Australia – The Japanese Effect." Australian Economic Papers 42, no. 2 (June 2003): 158–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.00193.

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42

Vakili, Keyvan. "International collaboration as insurance against external shocks." Academy of Management Proceedings 2014, no. 1 (January 2014): 16410. http://dx.doi.org/10.5465/ambpp.2014.16410abstract.

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43

Amiti, Mary, Oleg Itskhoki, and Jozef Konings. "International Shocks, Variable Markups, and Domestic Prices." Review of Economic Studies 86, no. 6 (February 2, 2019): 2356–402. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdz005.

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Анотація:

Abstract How strong are strategic complementarities in price setting across firms? In this article, we provide a direct empirical estimate of firms’ price responses to changes in competitor prices. We develop a general theoretical framework and an empirical identification strategy, taking advantage of a new micro-level dataset for the Belgian manufacturing sector. We find strong evidence of strategic complementarities, with a typical firm adjusting its price with an elasticity of 0.4 in response to its competitors’ price changes and with an elasticity of 0.6 in response to its own cost shocks. Furthermore, we find evidence of substantial heterogeneity in these elasticities across firms. Small firms exhibit no strategic complementarities in price setting and complete cost pass-through. In contrast, large firms exhibit strong strategic complementarities, responding to both competitor price changes and their own cost shocks with roughly equal elasticities of around 0.5. We show that this pattern of heterogeneity in markup variability across firms is important for explaining the aggregate markup response to international shocks and the observed low exchange rate pass-through into domestic prices.

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44

FEDOTENKOV, IGOR, BAS VAN GROEZEN, and LEX MEIJDAM. "International trade with pensions and demographic shocks." Journal of Pension Economics and Finance 18, no. 1 (August 24, 2017): 140–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1474747217000282.

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AbstractThe central question of this paper is how international trade and specialization are affected by different designs of pension schemes and asymmetric demographic changes. In a model with two goods, two countries and two production factors, we find that countries with a relatively large unfunded pension scheme will specialize in the production of labour intensive goods. If these countries are hit by a negative demographic shock, this specialization will intensify in the long run. Eventually, these countries may even completely specialize in the production of those goods. The effects spill over to other countries, which will move away from complete specialization in capital intensive goods as the relative size of their labour intensive goods sector will also increase.

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45

Jones, Ronald W. "Key international trade theorems and large shocks." International Review of Economics & Finance 17, no. 1 (January 2008): 103–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2006.04.001.

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46

Kireyev, Alexei, and Andrei Leonidov. "Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers." Networks and Spatial Economics 18, no. 4 (May 9, 2018): 805–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11067-018-9400-7.

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47

Nicar, Stephen B. "International Spillovers from U.S. Fiscal Policy Shocks." Open Economies Review 26, no. 5 (June 13, 2015): 1081–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11079-015-9364-x.

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48

Hubbard, R. Glenn, and Robert J. Weiner. "Oil supply shocks and international policy coordination." European Economic Review 30, no. 1 (February 1986): 91–106. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0014-2921(86)90033-4.

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Maoz, Zeev, and Kyle A. Joyce. "The effects of shocks on international networks." Journal of Peace Research 53, no. 3 (March 18, 2016): 292–309. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022343316632854.

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50

Díaz-Roldan, Carmen. "International monetary policy coordination under asymmetric shocks." International Advances in Economic Research 10, no. 1 (February 2004): 72–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf02295578.

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